WEBVTT - BI Weekend: Coca Cola, Hasbro, T-Mobile Earnings  

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. This is Bloomberg Intelligence

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<v Speaker 1>with Scarletfoo and Paul Sweeney.

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<v Speaker 2>Concerned about rising crisis spooking investors?

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<v Speaker 3>What does renewables investment look like in the US?

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<v Speaker 2>More power talk coming out of this administration.

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<v Speaker 1>Breaking market headlines and corporate news from across the globe.

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<v Speaker 3>The President wants a lower interest rates, He wants a

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<v Speaker 3>rate cut cycle.

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<v Speaker 4>How do you.

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<v Speaker 2>Broaden out the AI play?

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<v Speaker 3>Are people just looking for someone to worry about when

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<v Speaker 3>it comes to China?

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Intelligence with Scarletfoo and Paul Sweeney on Bloomberg Radio

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<v Speaker 1>Originals and the Bloomberg Business App.

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<v Speaker 2>On Today's Bloomberg Intelligence Show, we dig inside the big

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<v Speaker 2>business story is impacting Wall Street and the global markets.

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<v Speaker 3>Each and every week we provide in depth research and

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<v Speaker 3>data on some of the two thousand companies and one

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<v Speaker 3>hundred and thirty industries are analysts cover worldwide.

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<v Speaker 2>Today, we'll look at why Kraftthein's new CEO is halting

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<v Speaker 2>the process of splitting the company.

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<v Speaker 3>Plus a look at why T Mobile ad and fewer

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<v Speaker 3>mobile phone subscribers last quarter.

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<v Speaker 2>But first we begin with a deal in the energy space.

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<v Speaker 3>This week, deep water oil rigowner Transocean agree to acquire

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<v Speaker 3>rival Valaris in an all stock deal valued at five

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<v Speaker 3>point eight billion dollars.

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<v Speaker 2>The deal will create the world's largest offshore recontractor by

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<v Speaker 2>market value.

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<v Speaker 3>And this comes as offshore drilling has been booming, especially

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<v Speaker 3>in deep waters for more. We were joined by Scott Levine,

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<v Speaker 3>our senior energy services analysts.

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<v Speaker 2>We asked Scott to break down who these companies are

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<v Speaker 2>and the reasons for the deal.

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<v Speaker 5>Two of the bigger names in offshore drilling. Transocean has

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<v Speaker 5>the largest backlog, Valaris has largest fleet. Valaris's name may

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<v Speaker 5>not be that familiar to a lot of folks here.

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<v Speaker 5>It was actually a combination of a two companies called

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<v Speaker 5>Ensco and row In a few years ago. But there

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<v Speaker 5>are two of the biggest offshore drillers, and I think

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<v Speaker 5>that this deal really has both offensive and defensive motivations.

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<v Speaker 5>Offshore drilling is in a little bit of a recovery mode,

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<v Speaker 5>really kind of has been. Most of the drillers went bankrupt.

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<v Speaker 5>Actually during the twenty twenty one downturn. Transotion was really

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<v Speaker 5>one of the only companies that did not go bankrupt.

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<v Speaker 5>Valaris did, and so Transition has kind of been saddled

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<v Speaker 5>with all this debt as a result of not having

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<v Speaker 5>their balance sheet wipe during a bankruptcy, and so that's

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<v Speaker 5>been a limiting factor on their growth for quite some time.

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<v Speaker 5>And this deal, which is an all stock deal, will

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<v Speaker 5>accelerate their leveraging process and remove some of that burden

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<v Speaker 5>from them and better enable them to capitalize on an

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<v Speaker 5>upturn in offshore drilling. And the second of the thing

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<v Speaker 5>that's important to note here is that it brings a

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<v Speaker 5>jack up fleet jet. So a jackup fleet jackups are

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<v Speaker 5>basically shallow water rigs okay, as opposed to the deep

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<v Speaker 5>water drill ships or floaters, and Transotion had exclusively been

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<v Speaker 5>a floater fleet. Jackups are to the seabed, the seabeds

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<v Speaker 5>lower and shallow water, and Valaris is one of the

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<v Speaker 5>biggest players there, and so this gives Transition exposure to

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<v Speaker 5>the jack up or shallow water market, which has really

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<v Speaker 5>undergone an interesting phase in that it was a bit

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<v Speaker 5>of a downturn the last couple of years. The biggest

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<v Speaker 5>jack up driller is Saudija Ramco, and a couple of

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<v Speaker 5>years ago Saudia Ramco made significant cuts to their drilling program.

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<v Speaker 5>They essentially Saudi Arabia abandoned plans to increase their oil

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<v Speaker 5>production capacity to thirteen million barrels a day, and what

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<v Speaker 5>we've seen since then is a lot of jack up

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<v Speaker 5>rigs being laid off effectively in twenty twenty four and

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<v Speaker 5>twenty twenty five. Indication suggests those rigs will return this year,

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<v Speaker 5>so that market is bottomed and maybe on the cusp

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<v Speaker 5>of an upswing. So this deal will give Transotion the

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<v Speaker 5>ability to participate in that recovery.

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<v Speaker 3>So in terms of why now, when it comes to

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<v Speaker 3>the timing of this deal, the COEO transortion cited a

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<v Speaker 3>multi year drilling upcycle. Where are we in that cycle?

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<v Speaker 5>Are we?

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<v Speaker 3>You know, first inning?

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<v Speaker 5>It's kind of been an interesting upcycle, so we saw

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<v Speaker 5>an inflection in twenty two and twenty three, and twenty

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<v Speaker 5>four and twenty five, we've seen kind of a plateau

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<v Speaker 5>to a slight pullback.

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<v Speaker 4>Now.

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<v Speaker 5>I do believe we're in a recovery and have been,

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<v Speaker 5>and this has kind of been more of a mid

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<v Speaker 5>cycle pause associated rather than a downturn and offshore drilling.

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<v Speaker 5>So I do think the recovery is intact, but I

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<v Speaker 5>think the cadence has certainly slowed and in fact deteriorated

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<v Speaker 5>and offshore drillers, like energy service companies, have been off

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<v Speaker 5>to the races this year. I think the oil price

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<v Speaker 5>is held in better than expected. Some of that is

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<v Speaker 5>due to some of the tensions in the Middle East.

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<v Speaker 5>I Ran et cetera, Venezuela as well. So the punchline

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<v Speaker 5>really is that we're still in I think a mid

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<v Speaker 5>cycle pause until maybe the second half of this year,

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<v Speaker 5>and in terms of what inning we're in, I think

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<v Speaker 5>we're probably like third fourth inning, but it's been in

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<v Speaker 5>kind of an unconventional recovery.

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<v Speaker 2>Will the regulators allow these two companies to get the other?

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<v Speaker 5>Yeah, I think so, And it's a good question. These

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<v Speaker 5>are the two of the largest players that are out there,

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<v Speaker 5>and rig CEO expressed extreme confidence that that will be

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<v Speaker 5>the case. It's a competitive market. There's a lot of

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<v Speaker 5>fragmentation smaller players in the market, and it's generally the

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<v Speaker 5>quality of certain assets that determine which guys win which contracts.

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<v Speaker 5>A lot of it depends on which rigs are capable

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<v Speaker 5>of drilling for which projects, and so no, I do

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<v Speaker 5>think that this should get to relatively quick approval. Certainly

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<v Speaker 5>they're talking second half of this year. That's a much

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<v Speaker 5>shorter time timeline than the last major oil field services merger,

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<v Speaker 5>which was Slumberge champion X that took over a year

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<v Speaker 5>two year and a half to approve and required significant divestures.

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<v Speaker 5>But offshore drilling is a.

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<v Speaker 3>Different market our Thanks to Scott Levigne Bloomberg Intelligence, a

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<v Speaker 3>senior energy services analyst.

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<v Speaker 2>Staying with energy on Bloomberg Intelligence, we often look at

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<v Speaker 2>research from Bloomberg and EF previously known as New Energy Finance.

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<v Speaker 3>So they're the team at Bloomberg that tracks and analyzes

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<v Speaker 3>the energy transition from commodities to power, transport, industries, buildings,

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<v Speaker 3>and agriculture sectors.

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<v Speaker 2>This week we took a look at robotaxis for more

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<v Speaker 2>on this and the state of the automated vehicle industry.

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<v Speaker 2>I was joined by Andrew grant b an EF head

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<v Speaker 2>of Intelligent Mobility. I first asked Andrew to tell us

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<v Speaker 2>where we are with robotaxis and what we should watch

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<v Speaker 2>out for in twenty twenty six.

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<v Speaker 6>So at the end of twenty twenty five, they were

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<v Speaker 6>about eight thousand working robotaxis globally. Some of those had

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<v Speaker 6>safety drivers behind the wheel, Some of the had safety

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<v Speaker 6>drives in the vehicle but a significant number fully driverless

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<v Speaker 6>and operating in various cities around the globe. I'd say

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<v Speaker 6>about half of those eight thousand based in the US,

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<v Speaker 6>but we expect that number in total to more than

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<v Speaker 6>double by the end of the year to around eighteen

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<v Speaker 6>thousand robotaxis globally.

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<v Speaker 2>Who are the players in this business? I names you

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<v Speaker 2>know other than no Tesla, Weimo. How do you think

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<v Speaker 2>about the competitive environment out there?

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<v Speaker 6>I mean, we spend a lot of time looking at

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<v Speaker 6>the actual operations and number of vehicles deployed, so rarely

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<v Speaker 6>you're looking at kind of four companies globally that have

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<v Speaker 6>the biggest fleets of vehicles on the road. So Waimo,

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<v Speaker 6>as you mentioned, alphabet backed and has just raised a

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<v Speaker 6>significant amount of money. But also you're looking at three

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<v Speaker 6>Chinese companies with a big robotaxi fleet and growing so

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<v Speaker 6>Bydou's Apollo, and then we Ride and pony Ai, which

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<v Speaker 6>are robotaxis specialists that are based out of China but

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<v Speaker 6>looking to expand globally.

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<v Speaker 2>You know, I think about the just the battery electric

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<v Speaker 2>vehicle market, and I think the exception of the US

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<v Speaker 2>byd and some of these other Chinese manufacturers, it just

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<v Speaker 2>feels to me at this early stage might be able

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<v Speaker 2>to take over the world of electronic vehicles. Is that

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<v Speaker 2>a similar view for robotaxis?

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<v Speaker 6>Yeah. I mean it's interesting how different geographies are going

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<v Speaker 6>to react and different regulators are going to react to

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<v Speaker 6>foreign companies coming in and deploying their technology in those areas.

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<v Speaker 6>We are really seeing kind of a race at the

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<v Speaker 6>moment for new territories. So you've obviously got the US

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<v Speaker 6>based companies, the Chinese based companies that I just mentioned,

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<v Speaker 6>and kind of in the middle, you've got Europe, Middle East,

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<v Speaker 6>Southeast Asia where a lot of these companies are setting

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<v Speaker 6>up roots and looking to deploy and kind of twenty

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<v Speaker 6>twenty six is the year where they're really looking to

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<v Speaker 6>expand those services. So uber has just announced an earning

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<v Speaker 6>score last week that they'll be expanding to Houston, Hong Kong, Madrid, Zurich.

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<v Speaker 6>There's a variety of really competitive battlegrounds across those kind

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<v Speaker 6>of markets. In the middle.

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<v Speaker 2>What's the safety records so far in these early testing stage.

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<v Speaker 6>I mean, it depends how you measure these safety standards.

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<v Speaker 6>It's whether you're needing some type of intervention with the

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<v Speaker 6>safety driver and the vehicle on the whole. These vehicles

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<v Speaker 6>are tending to kind of show safety records that are

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<v Speaker 6>similar to what humans have displayed, and in some cases

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<v Speaker 6>it's far surpassing that. But again, the measuring of these

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<v Speaker 6>standards is kind of a tricky, nuanced subject. That's a

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<v Speaker 6>lot of regulators are digging into at the moment, and

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<v Speaker 6>it's really about companies working with regulators to try and

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<v Speaker 6>figure out and kind of try to prove their safety

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<v Speaker 6>record over time as they expand their services.

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<v Speaker 2>Talk to us about these things are expensive to develop, maintain, deploy.

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<v Speaker 2>Weimo just raised sixteen billion dollars at one hundred and

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<v Speaker 2>twenty six billion dollar valuation. Tesla's committed twenty billion dollars

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<v Speaker 2>in R and D this year. Where's the money coming from?

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<v Speaker 6>I mean a variety of venture backed investors and kind

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<v Speaker 6>of the big tech companies themselves. So you mentioned Wemo.

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<v Speaker 6>A lot of that money is coming from its majority owner, Alphabet,

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<v Speaker 6>and then Tesla is putting a lot of money into this.

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<v Speaker 6>It's just about where they are putting their money. So

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<v Speaker 6>Tesla is going with a strategy of deploying a much

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<v Speaker 6>cheaper vehicle, but they're putting a lot of money into

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<v Speaker 6>the data centers to try and improve their self driving

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<v Speaker 6>algorithms and their self driving system, whereas Weimo has got

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<v Speaker 6>a more expensive vehicle kind of two to three times

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<v Speaker 6>at a minimum more expensive. So it's going to take

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<v Speaker 6>a lot of ney to kind of build out that

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<v Speaker 6>robotaxi fleet and deploy it in the various parts of

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<v Speaker 6>the globe where they want to deploy. They've just announced

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<v Speaker 6>that they plan to launch a service here in London

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<v Speaker 6>in September.

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<v Speaker 2>Great, some of those little streets, good luck there. What's

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<v Speaker 2>some of the gating issues here? Is it regulatory? Is

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<v Speaker 2>it capital? Is it technology? What's the gating issue here

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<v Speaker 2>for this industry at the moment?

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<v Speaker 6>I mean, it's kind of all of the above, and

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<v Speaker 6>there's improvements that need to be made on all of those,

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<v Speaker 6>but also just finding a business use case for these services.

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<v Speaker 6>I mean, as we've been talking about, it takes a

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<v Speaker 6>lot of money to build them and deploy them. So

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<v Speaker 6>finding a kind of meaningful market for them and completing

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<v Speaker 6>kind of useful rides or meaningful rides rather than just

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<v Speaker 6>kind of being a theme park attraction and driving small

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<v Speaker 6>parts of the city. You actually want to kind of

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<v Speaker 6>get those more lucrative ride heading trips from say city

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<v Speaker 6>center to airports, and that's been a bit tricky for

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<v Speaker 6>some of these robotaxi companies to actually sort out the

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<v Speaker 6>If you look at just about a week and a

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<v Speaker 6>half ago where were announced that they would be opening

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<v Speaker 6>up to San Francisco Airport. But really what you're seeing

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<v Speaker 6>from that is they are doing pickups and drop offs

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<v Speaker 6>at the car rental center, which is kind of a

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<v Speaker 6>fifteen twenty minute journey from there to the actual airport itself,

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<v Speaker 6>so it's kind of compete with curbside dropoffs from ride

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<v Speaker 6>heading vehicles. They still have a bit of way to go.

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<v Speaker 3>Are thanks to Andrew grant, any, head of Intelligent Mobility,

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<v Speaker 3>coming up a look at why Coca Cola offered a

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<v Speaker 3>more conservative full year sales outlook than expected.

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<v Speaker 2>You're listening to Bloomberg Intelligence on Bloomberg Radio, providing in

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<v Speaker 2>depth research and data on two thousand companies and one

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<v Speaker 2>hundred and thirty industries.

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<v Speaker 3>You can access Bloomberg Intelligence via Bigo on the terminal.

0:12:16.040 --> 0:12:17.160
<v Speaker 3>I'm Scarlett Foo and.

0:12:17.120 --> 0:12:19.160
<v Speaker 2>I'm Paul Sweeney, and this is Bloomberg.

0:12:23.520 --> 0:12:28.040
<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Intelligence with Scarlet Foo and Paul Sweeney

0:12:28.360 --> 0:12:29.680
<v Speaker 1>on Bloomberg Radio.

0:12:30.440 --> 0:12:32.000
<v Speaker 2>We moved now to some news at the food and

0:12:32.040 --> 0:12:33.600
<v Speaker 2>beverage company craft Hines.

0:12:33.920 --> 0:12:37.120
<v Speaker 3>So this week, Kraft Heins's new CEO, Steve Kaylane, halted

0:12:37.120 --> 0:12:38.560
<v Speaker 3>the process of splitting the company.

0:12:38.880 --> 0:12:41.480
<v Speaker 2>Its decision, he said, was backed by the board of directors.

0:12:41.760 --> 0:12:45.200
<v Speaker 2>Kaylane will instead invest six hundred million dollars in developing

0:12:45.240 --> 0:12:47.840
<v Speaker 2>new products, marketing them and lowering some prices.

0:12:48.040 --> 0:12:50.400
<v Speaker 3>The shift in strategy was the result of Kaylane spending

0:12:50.400 --> 0:12:53.840
<v Speaker 3>the last few weeks immersing himself in Kraft Heeins's vast portfolio,

0:12:53.880 --> 0:12:56.359
<v Speaker 3>including conversations with retailers and employees.

0:12:56.679 --> 0:12:58.800
<v Speaker 2>For more and all this, we were joined by Christina Peterson,

0:12:58.800 --> 0:13:00.320
<v Speaker 2>Bloomberg News food industry reporter.

0:13:00.600 --> 0:13:03.560
<v Speaker 3>We began by asking Christina to explain Kaylane's thinking with

0:13:03.600 --> 0:13:04.040
<v Speaker 3>the pause.

0:13:04.559 --> 0:13:07.160
<v Speaker 7>He's only been on the job since January first, so

0:13:07.200 --> 0:13:09.120
<v Speaker 7>I think this came as a surprise to folks that

0:13:09.200 --> 0:13:12.160
<v Speaker 7>the split was called off about five months after it

0:13:12.200 --> 0:13:15.920
<v Speaker 7>was announced or paused. There is no end date to

0:13:16.000 --> 0:13:18.079
<v Speaker 7>the pause, so we don't know if it will at

0:13:18.080 --> 0:13:22.280
<v Speaker 7>some point rezuom. But the CEO, Steve Kahlene, said that

0:13:22.840 --> 0:13:25.200
<v Speaker 7>he came on the job knowing that there had been

0:13:25.440 --> 0:13:29.520
<v Speaker 7>levels of under investment in Kraft Heiness's brands and decided

0:13:29.520 --> 0:13:31.760
<v Speaker 7>that after reviewing all of them, that there were brands

0:13:31.760 --> 0:13:34.599
<v Speaker 7>that would respond to more investment. So they announced that

0:13:34.640 --> 0:13:37.480
<v Speaker 7>they would be putting six hundred million dollars into things

0:13:37.520 --> 0:13:41.800
<v Speaker 7>like R and D marketing and lowering some prices in

0:13:41.880 --> 0:13:45.319
<v Speaker 7>hopes that that would bolster the entire company and that

0:13:45.320 --> 0:13:47.440
<v Speaker 7>that would be in a better position put them in

0:13:47.440 --> 0:13:50.120
<v Speaker 7>a better position to evaluate whether they should move forward

0:13:50.160 --> 0:13:50.680
<v Speaker 7>with the split.

0:13:51.559 --> 0:13:54.439
<v Speaker 2>So what if most investors want? Did they you think

0:13:54.440 --> 0:13:56.800
<v Speaker 2>they want the split up? Sometimes split ups work, a

0:13:56.880 --> 0:14:00.400
<v Speaker 2>lot of times they don't. What if investors been saying

0:14:00.400 --> 0:14:01.560
<v Speaker 2>over the past months.

0:14:01.960 --> 0:14:06.240
<v Speaker 7>There's clearly been some anxiety among investors since the news

0:14:06.240 --> 0:14:09.360
<v Speaker 7>of the split was announced. I think that the new

0:14:09.480 --> 0:14:13.880
<v Speaker 7>CEO was seen as there were hopes that he would

0:14:13.920 --> 0:14:16.400
<v Speaker 7>do what he had done with the Kellegg Company, which

0:14:16.400 --> 0:14:19.560
<v Speaker 7>split into two publicly traded entities and then where both

0:14:19.840 --> 0:14:22.720
<v Speaker 7>both of those companies were bought by privately held entities.

0:14:23.400 --> 0:14:26.160
<v Speaker 7>So there was some speculation that the same thing would

0:14:26.160 --> 0:14:30.400
<v Speaker 7>occur at Kraft. Himes and Kaylaine said basically, not yet.

0:14:30.640 --> 0:14:33.680
<v Speaker 3>Really, there's another twist to all of this, which is

0:14:33.680 --> 0:14:37.240
<v Speaker 3>that Kraft Times biggest shareholder is Berkshire Hathway and Warren Buffett,

0:14:37.280 --> 0:14:39.720
<v Speaker 3>who runs Berkshire Hathway until he handed the rains to

0:14:39.760 --> 0:14:42.960
<v Speaker 3>Greg Abel, said he was never a fan of that

0:14:43.080 --> 0:14:45.080
<v Speaker 3>idea to split up the company. I mean, he was

0:14:45.160 --> 0:14:47.560
<v Speaker 3>kind of the mastermind behind Kraft Hims becoming the behemoth

0:14:47.640 --> 0:14:49.720
<v Speaker 3>it was and that didn't work out so well. But

0:14:50.000 --> 0:14:51.840
<v Speaker 3>he made clear that the split was not a good

0:14:51.840 --> 0:14:54.480
<v Speaker 3>thing in his mind. Do we think that has anything

0:14:54.520 --> 0:14:55.680
<v Speaker 3>to do with this about face?

0:14:56.840 --> 0:14:59.360
<v Speaker 7>I don't know. It is clear that he had publicly

0:14:59.400 --> 0:15:03.160
<v Speaker 7>expressed a appointment in the split, and his successor had

0:15:03.200 --> 0:15:06.200
<v Speaker 7>said in a filing that Berkshire Hathaway was taking steps

0:15:06.240 --> 0:15:09.240
<v Speaker 7>to sell its twenty eight percent stake in Craft Times,

0:15:09.800 --> 0:15:12.760
<v Speaker 7>So clearly they were nervous about this and not fans

0:15:12.800 --> 0:15:13.640
<v Speaker 7>of the news.

0:15:13.880 --> 0:15:16.320
<v Speaker 2>So do we have any idea how long this pause

0:15:16.920 --> 0:15:20.880
<v Speaker 2>will last? I mean, is he trying to turn stuff around,

0:15:20.960 --> 0:15:23.280
<v Speaker 2>make it maybe better? So if when they do split

0:15:23.320 --> 0:15:25.200
<v Speaker 2>it up be worth more? What do we know?

0:15:26.280 --> 0:15:28.640
<v Speaker 7>They clearly are not going to make the decision this year.

0:15:28.800 --> 0:15:31.360
<v Speaker 7>They talked about returning to growth in twenty twenty seven,

0:15:31.600 --> 0:15:34.440
<v Speaker 7>so it seems like this is a month's away decision.

0:15:35.040 --> 0:15:37.120
<v Speaker 2>Oh, the investment bankers who had that on their deal

0:15:37.120 --> 0:15:38.400
<v Speaker 2>sheet for twenty twenty six.

0:15:39.040 --> 0:15:40.720
<v Speaker 3>But they get paid in the meantime for the work

0:15:40.720 --> 0:15:41.640
<v Speaker 3>that they've done right now.

0:15:41.640 --> 0:15:42.800
<v Speaker 2>You don't get paid to the closes.

0:15:42.880 --> 0:15:44.600
<v Speaker 3>Oh really, you can't build them along the way.

0:15:44.920 --> 0:15:47.720
<v Speaker 2>We're not lawyers. Okay, we get paid. We take out

0:15:47.760 --> 0:15:50.040
<v Speaker 2>of the I like how you still say we yeah, yeah,

0:15:50.080 --> 0:15:50.880
<v Speaker 2>exactly because you.

0:15:50.840 --> 0:15:53.040
<v Speaker 3>Feel for these guys. Y.

0:15:53.120 --> 0:15:55.520
<v Speaker 2>What's the company want to do now? Is as a

0:15:56.160 --> 0:15:57.120
<v Speaker 2>standalone company.

0:15:57.400 --> 0:16:01.440
<v Speaker 7>Well, they've talked about releasing some healthier products. They are

0:16:01.560 --> 0:16:06.280
<v Speaker 7>launching a Kraft Heinz Mac and cheese PowerMac with proteinage.

0:16:06.280 --> 0:16:08.080
<v Speaker 3>I knew iber, I knew it. I knew it.

0:16:09.280 --> 0:16:11.920
<v Speaker 7>And they will be lowering prices. They talked about the

0:16:12.040 --> 0:16:17.000
<v Speaker 7>opening price points being important for low income families. So

0:16:17.040 --> 0:16:18.520
<v Speaker 7>those are some of the areas that they're going to

0:16:18.520 --> 0:16:21.920
<v Speaker 7>be focusing on, some healthier options, more affordable price points.

0:16:22.480 --> 0:16:25.760
<v Speaker 2>Our thanks to Christina Peterson, Bloomberg News Food industry reporter.

0:16:26.080 --> 0:16:28.880
<v Speaker 3>We move now to the beverage giant, Coca Cola. This week,

0:16:29.000 --> 0:16:31.720
<v Speaker 3>Coca Cola reported weaker than expected quarterly sales.

0:16:32.040 --> 0:16:34.800
<v Speaker 2>Soda maker also offered a more conservative twenty twenty six

0:16:35.080 --> 0:16:38.000
<v Speaker 2>for your sales outlook. Then expected. Shares of Coca Cola

0:16:38.080 --> 0:16:39.040
<v Speaker 2>fell after the news.

0:16:39.200 --> 0:16:41.920
<v Speaker 3>The outlook points to the challenges faced by the incoming CEO,

0:16:41.960 --> 0:16:44.880
<v Speaker 3>Henrique Braun, as the company works to win over shoppers

0:16:44.920 --> 0:16:46.960
<v Speaker 3>with its widening portfolio of beverages.

0:16:47.320 --> 0:16:51.080
<v Speaker 2>For more, we heard Kencha Bloomberg Intelligence, senior consumer products analysts.

0:16:51.200 --> 0:16:53.680
<v Speaker 2>We first asked Ken to tell us what's concerning investors

0:16:53.680 --> 0:16:54.760
<v Speaker 2>about Coca Cola.

0:16:54.920 --> 0:16:57.960
<v Speaker 4>I think what maybe concerning the mark a little bit

0:16:58.000 --> 0:17:02.520
<v Speaker 4>about Coke is that the mix was not as favorable

0:17:02.560 --> 0:17:05.000
<v Speaker 4>as it had been. Also, the company over the past

0:17:05.040 --> 0:17:07.960
<v Speaker 4>couple of years had been relying heavily on price mix

0:17:08.119 --> 0:17:09.920
<v Speaker 4>to boost the top line.

0:17:09.960 --> 0:17:10.440
<v Speaker 6>Is it was a.

0:17:10.359 --> 0:17:14.280
<v Speaker 4>Considerable slowing in the quarter. Having said that, there's always

0:17:14.280 --> 0:17:16.080
<v Speaker 4>some noise in the fourth quarter. It's hard to draw

0:17:16.160 --> 0:17:19.240
<v Speaker 4>too many conclusions from the fourth quarter. But I think

0:17:19.240 --> 0:17:22.160
<v Speaker 4>the market is also being spooked a little bit by

0:17:22.320 --> 0:17:25.679
<v Speaker 4>the guidance for next year, which came in a bit

0:17:25.720 --> 0:17:29.600
<v Speaker 4>a little bit light. The company's long term algorithm is

0:17:30.000 --> 0:17:33.679
<v Speaker 4>to generate about four to six percent organic revenue and

0:17:33.800 --> 0:17:37.399
<v Speaker 4>from that it can generate high comparable EPs growth, and

0:17:37.440 --> 0:17:40.360
<v Speaker 4>it did that in twenty twenty five, in twenty twenty six,

0:17:40.440 --> 0:17:43.480
<v Speaker 4>other saying four to five percent top line and four

0:17:43.520 --> 0:17:47.920
<v Speaker 4>to five percent EPs growth, And so that's EPs growth again,

0:17:47.960 --> 0:17:53.200
<v Speaker 4>that's excluding currency effects. It's not only below their long

0:17:53.280 --> 0:17:57.120
<v Speaker 4>term algorithm, but also below consensus expectations going in.

0:17:57.880 --> 0:18:01.080
<v Speaker 2>What's the You know, we always talk a lot of

0:18:01.119 --> 0:18:03.760
<v Speaker 2>your companies, the consumer products companies and staples companies that

0:18:03.800 --> 0:18:05.639
<v Speaker 2>you think about him as kind of GDP maybe a

0:18:05.640 --> 0:18:07.600
<v Speaker 2>little bit GDP plus kind of growth here. Is there

0:18:07.640 --> 0:18:10.280
<v Speaker 2>any secret sauce to the Coca Cola story or is

0:18:10.280 --> 0:18:11.600
<v Speaker 2>that the way we should think about it?

0:18:12.680 --> 0:18:15.480
<v Speaker 4>Well, there's a lot of truth of that, Paul, because

0:18:15.560 --> 0:18:17.720
<v Speaker 4>Coca is in the two hundred markets around the world.

0:18:17.880 --> 0:18:20.879
<v Speaker 4>You know, I guess the way for growth is lunar

0:18:20.880 --> 0:18:24.000
<v Speaker 4>at this point. I mean, they're everywhere. But I think

0:18:25.480 --> 0:18:27.600
<v Speaker 4>there's gonna be a new CEO on March thirty first,

0:18:27.880 --> 0:18:30.520
<v Speaker 4>Henry Barraun. He's a long time veteran at Coca Cola

0:18:30.600 --> 0:18:33.600
<v Speaker 4>who was the COO used to head up Latin American operations.

0:18:33.760 --> 0:18:35.760
<v Speaker 4>I think there's a lot of confidence in his ability

0:18:36.040 --> 0:18:40.000
<v Speaker 4>to take the reins here, and I think what he's

0:18:40.040 --> 0:18:43.000
<v Speaker 4>going to spell out in his vision next week at Cagney.

0:18:43.160 --> 0:18:44.959
<v Speaker 4>That's when they oh usually do it.

0:18:45.000 --> 0:18:45.600
<v Speaker 2>That's where you'll be.

0:18:47.000 --> 0:18:51.119
<v Speaker 4>Yeah. Well, I think he's gonna say that they need

0:18:51.160 --> 0:18:54.200
<v Speaker 4>to step up their marketing and innovation here to boost

0:18:54.280 --> 0:18:56.800
<v Speaker 4>that top line growth. And I think they're going to

0:18:56.960 --> 0:19:01.320
<v Speaker 4>talk a lot about functionality that we talked about with PepsiCo.

0:19:01.880 --> 0:19:04.800
<v Speaker 4>What I mean by functionality, well, well, consumers want more

0:19:04.840 --> 0:19:07.440
<v Speaker 4>from their beverages than just taste good and hydrate them.

0:19:07.840 --> 0:19:11.720
<v Speaker 4>They want to not only have zero sugar, but if

0:19:11.720 --> 0:19:15.040
<v Speaker 4>they wants to have more electrolytes in their water, it

0:19:15.080 --> 0:19:17.800
<v Speaker 4>wants to have more protein in their drinks. Particularly the

0:19:17.880 --> 0:19:22.600
<v Speaker 4>JLP one crowd, they want to have fiber coke offers

0:19:22.640 --> 0:19:25.800
<v Speaker 4>in its probiotic sodas like simply Pop. So these are

0:19:25.800 --> 0:19:27.240
<v Speaker 4>the kind of things they're going to talk about in

0:19:27.280 --> 0:19:31.080
<v Speaker 4>terms of product innovation, I believe next week. In addition

0:19:31.119 --> 0:19:32.640
<v Speaker 4>to that, I think the company's going to spend more

0:19:32.640 --> 0:19:35.520
<v Speaker 4>in marketing digital marketing to get the message out to

0:19:35.680 --> 0:19:37.080
<v Speaker 4>new young consumers.

0:19:37.440 --> 0:19:39.000
<v Speaker 3>I guess the idea is to just have your drink

0:19:39.080 --> 0:19:39.919
<v Speaker 3>or place your food.

0:19:40.359 --> 0:19:41.040
<v Speaker 6>I guess.

0:19:42.560 --> 0:19:46.120
<v Speaker 3>Zero sugar actually was a standout right with Coca Cola

0:19:46.200 --> 0:19:49.399
<v Speaker 3>Zero sugar posting double digit volume growth in the quarter.

0:19:49.640 --> 0:19:51.159
<v Speaker 3>When you say that they want to focus on the

0:19:51.160 --> 0:19:53.280
<v Speaker 3>innovation and get the word out, what does that mean

0:19:53.320 --> 0:19:56.160
<v Speaker 3>in terms of spending on marketing? What does that mean

0:19:56.200 --> 0:19:58.520
<v Speaker 3>on in terms of capital expenses?

0:20:00.000 --> 0:20:03.199
<v Speaker 4>Think broadly speaking, more social media advertising. I mean on

0:20:03.240 --> 0:20:06.040
<v Speaker 4>a purview basis, that's a lot more cost efficient and

0:20:06.119 --> 0:20:09.080
<v Speaker 4>the you know traditional ways like television, Paul, you would

0:20:09.080 --> 0:20:12.040
<v Speaker 4>know that right media analyst days. So it's more of that.

0:20:12.240 --> 0:20:15.359
<v Speaker 4>It's also working more closely with their bottlers in terms

0:20:15.359 --> 0:20:18.880
<v Speaker 4>of co marketing ventures. That could be a wide range

0:20:18.920 --> 0:20:22.280
<v Speaker 4>of things, not only digital marketing, but perhaps coming out

0:20:22.320 --> 0:20:25.719
<v Speaker 4>new packaging, whether it's multi packs to attract you know,

0:20:25.840 --> 0:20:32.520
<v Speaker 4>an economical consumer to spending more on its fountain dispenser.

0:20:32.720 --> 0:20:36.359
<v Speaker 4>You see a lot of fast food restaurants where they

0:20:36.400 --> 0:20:39.399
<v Speaker 4>can make their own sodas and so on. It's just

0:20:39.680 --> 0:20:42.520
<v Speaker 4>spread that out more to have more consumer engagement matter

0:20:42.560 --> 0:20:45.639
<v Speaker 4>where they are. Yep, so I see more of that.

0:20:45.720 --> 0:20:48.679
<v Speaker 3>Our thanks to Ken shah Our, senior consumer products analysts.

0:20:48.760 --> 0:20:50.680
<v Speaker 2>We move next to news on the toy and board

0:20:50.680 --> 0:20:51.720
<v Speaker 2>game maker Hasbro.

0:20:52.200 --> 0:20:54.679
<v Speaker 3>This week, Hasbro reported that it more than doubled year

0:20:54.720 --> 0:20:57.080
<v Speaker 3>over year revenue from its popular card game Magic. The

0:20:57.160 --> 0:21:00.600
<v Speaker 3>gathering in the fourth quarter, shares of Hasbro jumped the news.

0:21:00.880 --> 0:21:03.919
<v Speaker 3>So we brought in Lindsay Dutch, our consumer Hardline senior analyst,

0:21:04.000 --> 0:21:06.840
<v Speaker 3>and began by asking her to break down Hasbro's results.

0:21:07.080 --> 0:21:09.560
<v Speaker 8>So the story for Hasbro is, you know, the result

0:21:09.640 --> 0:21:12.400
<v Speaker 8>in twenty five, including the fourth quarter, is really being

0:21:12.480 --> 0:21:16.000
<v Speaker 8>driven by their Wizard of the Coast digital gaming segment.

0:21:17.080 --> 0:21:20.479
<v Speaker 8>That that segment has been growing rapidly forty five percent

0:21:20.560 --> 0:21:23.280
<v Speaker 8>on the year, sixty percent I think for Magic the

0:21:23.359 --> 0:21:26.960
<v Speaker 8>gathering in the quarter, so just tremendous growth coming out

0:21:26.960 --> 0:21:30.879
<v Speaker 8>of that brand, better than expected, and that unit is

0:21:30.880 --> 0:21:33.480
<v Speaker 8>really going to carry the growth in twenty twenty six.

0:21:33.600 --> 0:21:36.880
<v Speaker 8>The outlook for the consumer products with their toy segment

0:21:37.240 --> 0:21:40.200
<v Speaker 8>is still kind of weak, So it's really coming out

0:21:40.240 --> 0:21:43.720
<v Speaker 8>of that digital gaming segment. But I think investors are

0:21:43.760 --> 0:21:47.160
<v Speaker 8>pleased with the outlook there just because they're lapping very

0:21:47.160 --> 0:21:50.080
<v Speaker 8>difficult comps. So to see solid growth in twenty six

0:21:50.160 --> 0:21:52.840
<v Speaker 8>coming out of that, it was a good surprise.

0:21:53.320 --> 0:21:56.000
<v Speaker 3>Lindsay, what about tariffs? Is this something that Hasbro has

0:21:56.040 --> 0:22:00.320
<v Speaker 3>figured out and it's no longer something that lead it's

0:22:00.320 --> 0:22:03.199
<v Speaker 3>earnings to be kind of unreliable and they've kind of

0:22:03.200 --> 0:22:04.200
<v Speaker 3>smooth things out.

0:22:06.200 --> 0:22:09.680
<v Speaker 8>So it definitely affected the year, so about forty million

0:22:09.760 --> 0:22:13.960
<v Speaker 8>dollars in the fourth quarter. A headwind for margin there,

0:22:14.080 --> 0:22:17.720
<v Speaker 8>especially on that consumer products segment, so that margin did

0:22:17.760 --> 0:22:21.560
<v Speaker 8>decline year over year, which was a disappointment. It's certainly

0:22:21.600 --> 0:22:25.040
<v Speaker 8>going to be a headwind for profitability at least in

0:22:25.080 --> 0:22:27.560
<v Speaker 8>the first half, and comps will get easier in the

0:22:27.600 --> 0:22:31.400
<v Speaker 8>second half. But Hasbro did note that, you know, much

0:22:31.480 --> 0:22:34.520
<v Speaker 8>of the cost savings program that they're working on and

0:22:34.600 --> 0:22:37.879
<v Speaker 8>other supply chain efficiencies, they were able to offset a

0:22:37.960 --> 0:22:42.159
<v Speaker 8>significant portion of that cost so that is a good sign,

0:22:42.560 --> 0:22:44.320
<v Speaker 8>but there's still a little bit of a headwind for

0:22:44.359 --> 0:22:45.480
<v Speaker 8>the next two quarters.

0:22:46.320 --> 0:22:49.080
<v Speaker 2>I'm just looking at the FA function on the Bloomberg terminal,

0:22:49.119 --> 0:22:52.080
<v Speaker 2>gives me all the financial analysism ploy the operating income

0:22:52.119 --> 0:22:54.280
<v Speaker 2>profit for the Wizards of the Coast and the digital

0:22:54.320 --> 0:22:58.960
<v Speaker 2>segment is huge, whereas the profitability of their regular toy

0:22:59.000 --> 0:23:02.399
<v Speaker 2>business not so much. Is a company just throwing all

0:23:02.440 --> 0:23:05.880
<v Speaker 2>the resources into their digital stuff? Is that the strategy?

0:23:06.200 --> 0:23:10.119
<v Speaker 8>So they have definitely been pushing for several years now

0:23:10.160 --> 0:23:13.040
<v Speaker 8>to become a bigger player in that digital world, but

0:23:13.080 --> 0:23:16.440
<v Speaker 8>also really to become known for that. So I would say,

0:23:16.480 --> 0:23:19.480
<v Speaker 8>you know, one of Hasbro's big brands Monopoly that that's

0:23:19.520 --> 0:23:22.560
<v Speaker 8>what many people know that the company for is that

0:23:22.600 --> 0:23:25.800
<v Speaker 8>traditional Monopoly board game. But are they are pushing into

0:23:25.840 --> 0:23:28.520
<v Speaker 8>this world of digital games? You know, they want to

0:23:28.560 --> 0:23:31.359
<v Speaker 8>be valued as such. And I will say, you know,

0:23:31.400 --> 0:23:34.000
<v Speaker 8>they do have a digital version of Monopoly, Monopoly Go,

0:23:34.280 --> 0:23:36.159
<v Speaker 8>and that has done.

0:23:36.200 --> 0:23:38.240
<v Speaker 2>Very, very well over the past couple of years.

0:23:38.280 --> 0:23:42.480
<v Speaker 8>It continues to surprise, including in the fourth quarter. So

0:23:42.480 --> 0:23:45.840
<v Speaker 8>they're definitely moving in that direction. But that toy segment

0:23:45.960 --> 0:23:48.080
<v Speaker 8>consumer products, you know, still.

0:23:47.960 --> 0:23:48.840
<v Speaker 2>Is pretty large.

0:23:49.040 --> 0:23:52.439
<v Speaker 8>It was still around fifty percent of revenue for twenty five.

0:23:53.000 --> 0:23:55.320
<v Speaker 8>I do think that will that mix will come down

0:23:55.400 --> 0:23:58.000
<v Speaker 8>over time, but it's still a big piece of their

0:23:58.040 --> 0:23:59.400
<v Speaker 8>business that they can't ignore.

0:24:00.240 --> 0:24:02.640
<v Speaker 3>Lindsay. I also noticed that in this latest earning support

0:24:02.680 --> 0:24:06.040
<v Speaker 3>they announced a one billion dollar stock buyback authorization. I

0:24:06.080 --> 0:24:09.080
<v Speaker 3>believe this is the first FIBACK since twenty eighteen. What

0:24:09.200 --> 0:24:11.920
<v Speaker 3>does that signal to you?

0:24:11.920 --> 0:24:14.280
<v Speaker 8>You know, I think that their Hasbro is still working

0:24:14.359 --> 0:24:18.800
<v Speaker 8>through their capital allocation priorities. They are still focused on

0:24:18.880 --> 0:24:22.480
<v Speaker 8>reducing leverage. You know, their dividend has been flat for

0:24:22.560 --> 0:24:25.879
<v Speaker 8>quite some time, So I think they're looking at different

0:24:25.920 --> 0:24:29.640
<v Speaker 8>avenues now that they're in a much better financial position

0:24:29.720 --> 0:24:31.840
<v Speaker 8>than they had been maybe a year or two ago.

0:24:32.680 --> 0:24:34.520
<v Speaker 8>So I think it's just a signal that that that

0:24:34.560 --> 0:24:39.200
<v Speaker 8>position is solidly better and they're looking to redeploy cash

0:24:39.200 --> 0:24:41.639
<v Speaker 8>in different ways that they maybe couldn't have done a

0:24:41.680 --> 0:24:42.520
<v Speaker 8>year or so ago.

0:24:43.200 --> 0:24:46.800
<v Speaker 2>Thanks to Lindsay Dutch, Bloomberg Intelligence, Consumer Hardline's senior analyst.

0:24:47.160 --> 0:24:49.680
<v Speaker 3>Coming up, look at why CBS Health is repeating its

0:24:49.720 --> 0:24:51.320
<v Speaker 3>profit guidance for twenty twenty six.

0:24:51.600 --> 0:24:54.359
<v Speaker 2>You're listening to Bloomberg Intelligence on Bloomberg Radio for riding

0:24:54.400 --> 0:24:56.520
<v Speaker 2>in depth research and data on two thousand companies in

0:24:56.520 --> 0:24:57.720
<v Speaker 2>one hundred and thirty industries.

0:24:57.800 --> 0:25:00.679
<v Speaker 3>You can access Bloomberg Intelligence through Bigo on the terminal.

0:25:00.760 --> 0:25:01.800
<v Speaker 3>I'm Scarlett Foo.

0:25:01.720 --> 0:25:03.720
<v Speaker 2>And I'm Paul Sweeney, and this is Bloomberg.

0:25:10.800 --> 0:25:15.280
<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Intelligence with Scarlet Foo and Paul Sweeney

0:25:15.640 --> 0:25:16.960
<v Speaker 1>on Bloomberg Radio.

0:25:17.520 --> 0:25:17.920
<v Speaker 9>Good move.

0:25:17.960 --> 0:25:21.040
<v Speaker 2>Next to earnings from the telecommunications company T Mobile.

0:25:20.800 --> 0:25:24.040
<v Speaker 3>This week, the company reported quarterly revenue that beat estimates

0:25:24.040 --> 0:25:27.359
<v Speaker 3>but had earnings that missed analyst projections. T Mobile also

0:25:27.400 --> 0:25:30.640
<v Speaker 3>reported it added fewer mobile phone subscribers and analysts expected

0:25:30.760 --> 0:25:31.359
<v Speaker 3>last quarter.

0:25:31.760 --> 0:25:34.280
<v Speaker 2>This comes as the company aims to distinguish itself from

0:25:34.320 --> 0:25:38.280
<v Speaker 2>competitors in value and network quality with promotions like free

0:25:38.320 --> 0:25:40.800
<v Speaker 2>Netflix subscriptions and wing Stop Chicken.

0:25:41.119 --> 0:25:43.920
<v Speaker 3>For more, we brought in John Butler, our senior telecom analyst.

0:25:44.040 --> 0:25:45.960
<v Speaker 2>We first Askedjohn to break down why this could be

0:25:45.960 --> 0:25:48.280
<v Speaker 2>considered a disappointing quarter at T Mobile.

0:25:48.520 --> 0:25:51.320
<v Speaker 10>I think one of the things that really impacted them

0:25:51.440 --> 0:25:55.480
<v Speaker 10>is we've seen Verizon, which now has a new CEO

0:25:55.720 --> 0:25:59.800
<v Speaker 10>who's come in. He's very volume focused, so he's out there.

0:26:00.359 --> 0:26:04.439
<v Speaker 10>They're promoting heavily. They're trying to win new subscribers, and

0:26:04.520 --> 0:26:06.520
<v Speaker 10>I think it took a bit of a den out

0:26:06.520 --> 0:26:09.960
<v Speaker 10>of T mobiles growth in the fourth quarter. I think

0:26:10.040 --> 0:26:12.880
<v Speaker 10>one thing T Mobile did which was smart is they

0:26:12.920 --> 0:26:18.000
<v Speaker 10>combined the four Q report with a Capital Markets Day update.

0:26:18.119 --> 0:26:22.840
<v Speaker 10>They updated their twenty twenty seven guidance, and they increased

0:26:22.840 --> 0:26:26.520
<v Speaker 10>their free cash flow outlook for twenty seven by one

0:26:26.560 --> 0:26:29.600
<v Speaker 10>point five billion. And so when you saw them do that,

0:26:30.200 --> 0:26:35.880
<v Speaker 10>you saw an inflection and investor sentiment almost instantly, because

0:26:36.080 --> 0:26:40.199
<v Speaker 10>again this has this has gone from a story of

0:26:40.840 --> 0:26:44.480
<v Speaker 10>revenue growth. Now they're pivoting more to free cash flow growth.

0:26:44.480 --> 0:26:50.520
<v Speaker 10>They're really pointing investors to that bottom line to you know,

0:26:50.800 --> 0:26:54.080
<v Speaker 10>get the focus off of revenue growth as things get

0:26:54.119 --> 0:26:57.560
<v Speaker 10>more promotional and as industry growth slows.

0:26:58.040 --> 0:27:00.720
<v Speaker 2>So is this a new wave of just I guess

0:27:00.720 --> 0:27:02.840
<v Speaker 2>across the board, if you Verizon's getting a little bit

0:27:02.880 --> 0:27:06.119
<v Speaker 2>more promotional this T Mobile to AT and T, do

0:27:06.160 --> 0:27:08.719
<v Speaker 2>they have to respond or the other things they can do?

0:27:09.560 --> 0:27:14.040
<v Speaker 10>So great question, Paul. Right, We're in a mature industry backdrop. Now,

0:27:14.160 --> 0:27:18.800
<v Speaker 10>growth overall is slowing for everyone. T Mobile is not

0:27:19.000 --> 0:27:23.120
<v Speaker 10>alone in pointing to pre cash flow growth. You've got

0:27:23.160 --> 0:27:26.560
<v Speaker 10>AT and T and Verizon doing the same thing. And

0:27:26.680 --> 0:27:30.480
<v Speaker 10>so I think again, with that new CEO in place,

0:27:30.600 --> 0:27:34.479
<v Speaker 10>now you've got T Mobiles sort of driving a growth

0:27:34.520 --> 0:27:39.760
<v Speaker 10>story that centers on not only smart promotion, but also

0:27:40.000 --> 0:27:45.640
<v Speaker 10>driving into adjacent markets like advertising and even credit cards.

0:27:46.040 --> 0:27:46.240
<v Speaker 6>Yeah.

0:27:46.240 --> 0:27:48.400
<v Speaker 3>I'm a Team Mobile subscriber and there's always a ton

0:27:48.440 --> 0:27:51.000
<v Speaker 3>of emails from the company offering all kinds of different

0:27:51.040 --> 0:27:53.439
<v Speaker 3>services and deals, and it really feels like they're just

0:27:53.440 --> 0:27:56.880
<v Speaker 3>trying to develop you into their ecosystem. John, I kind

0:27:56.880 --> 0:28:00.479
<v Speaker 3>of call the effort to sell internet access to ad

0:28:00.520 --> 0:28:03.800
<v Speaker 3>broadband customers a side hustle for these telecoms companies. But

0:28:03.880 --> 0:28:06.080
<v Speaker 3>this is how they can make sure that they continue

0:28:06.080 --> 0:28:09.080
<v Speaker 3>to build out their customer base even as they try

0:28:09.080 --> 0:28:11.520
<v Speaker 3>to fight for market share when it comes to mobile

0:28:11.520 --> 0:28:14.679
<v Speaker 3>phone subscribers. How is that side hustle going for T Mobile.

0:28:16.440 --> 0:28:19.000
<v Speaker 10>So the side hustle, as you call it, and I

0:28:19.040 --> 0:28:22.320
<v Speaker 10>think that's a good word for it, is still small

0:28:22.440 --> 0:28:25.600
<v Speaker 10>right now. I think their real opportunity for them in

0:28:25.640 --> 0:28:29.520
<v Speaker 10>the near term scarlet lies in the broadband business. They're

0:28:29.680 --> 0:28:34.560
<v Speaker 10>pushing into fiber, another side hustle. It's small, but I

0:28:34.600 --> 0:28:37.920
<v Speaker 10>think over the next couple of years it could increasingly

0:28:38.000 --> 0:28:41.240
<v Speaker 10>contribute to growth. And then at the core of the

0:28:41.280 --> 0:28:46.600
<v Speaker 10>broadband business is their fixed wireless access business, so delivering

0:28:46.640 --> 0:28:51.800
<v Speaker 10>broadband to the home over cellular spectrum. That's been very

0:28:51.840 --> 0:28:55.920
<v Speaker 10>popular and T Mobile remains a real leader there. It

0:28:56.040 --> 0:28:59.040
<v Speaker 10>continues to be a growth engine for them. And so

0:28:59.160 --> 0:29:02.240
<v Speaker 10>I think when you air that with the ad business,

0:29:02.720 --> 0:29:06.480
<v Speaker 10>the credit card business, and more importantly the fiber business,

0:29:07.040 --> 0:29:11.080
<v Speaker 10>it all adds up to help sustain that free cash

0:29:11.120 --> 0:29:16.080
<v Speaker 10>flow growth and call it the five to six percent range,

0:29:16.160 --> 0:29:18.760
<v Speaker 10>maybe even more as we go forward over the next

0:29:18.760 --> 0:29:19.680
<v Speaker 10>three years.

0:29:20.120 --> 0:29:23.200
<v Speaker 2>John about thirty seconds dividend policy. T Mobile's got a

0:29:23.200 --> 0:29:26.440
<v Speaker 2>one point eight percent yield, Verizon five point six percent,

0:29:26.520 --> 0:29:28.680
<v Speaker 2>and AT and T three point nine percent, So there's

0:29:28.720 --> 0:29:31.240
<v Speaker 2>something for everybody. In terms of investors, does T Mobile

0:29:31.280 --> 0:29:33.000
<v Speaker 2>do They worry about their dividend yield.

0:29:35.000 --> 0:29:37.760
<v Speaker 10>Little less so than share buybacks. In fact, one of

0:29:37.760 --> 0:29:40.880
<v Speaker 10>the things they did with Capital Markets Day was announced

0:29:40.920 --> 0:29:44.400
<v Speaker 10>that they're buying back five billion in shares over the

0:29:44.400 --> 0:29:47.479
<v Speaker 10>course of the first quarter here, which is double the

0:29:47.520 --> 0:29:51.160
<v Speaker 10>normal rate. So you know, I think they're leaning more

0:29:51.200 --> 0:29:54.720
<v Speaker 10>into that than dividend growth, although it's part of that

0:29:54.800 --> 0:29:57.800
<v Speaker 10>share buyback program and it's going to continue to be

0:29:57.840 --> 0:29:58.880
<v Speaker 10>as we go forward.

0:29:58.920 --> 0:30:02.560
<v Speaker 3>Here our thanks to On Butler, Bloomberg Intelligence, Senior Telecom analyst.

0:30:02.760 --> 0:30:05.600
<v Speaker 2>We moved next to some newsom to healthcare company CVS Health.

0:30:05.760 --> 0:30:08.520
<v Speaker 3>This week, the company disappointed Wall Street by repeating its

0:30:08.560 --> 0:30:09.960
<v Speaker 3>profit guidance for the full year.

0:30:10.160 --> 0:30:12.600
<v Speaker 2>It's a move analysts are calling a letdown after a

0:30:12.640 --> 0:30:14.680
<v Speaker 2>strong fourth quarter performance.

0:30:14.400 --> 0:30:17.440
<v Speaker 3>And it comes as CBS faces scrutiny from lawmakers and

0:30:17.480 --> 0:30:20.480
<v Speaker 3>regulators in Washington who are concerned about the rising cost

0:30:20.520 --> 0:30:21.080
<v Speaker 3>of healthcare.

0:30:21.360 --> 0:30:21.680
<v Speaker 5>For more.

0:30:21.720 --> 0:30:24.440
<v Speaker 2>We were joined by Jonathan Palmer, Senior Equity Research analyst

0:30:24.440 --> 0:30:25.480
<v Speaker 2>at Bloomberg Intelligence.

0:30:25.560 --> 0:30:27.360
<v Speaker 3>We first asked Jonathan to give us his take on

0:30:27.400 --> 0:30:28.760
<v Speaker 3>the latest results at CBS.

0:30:29.000 --> 0:30:31.840
<v Speaker 11>I think what investors were really focused on was twenty

0:30:31.960 --> 0:30:34.640
<v Speaker 11>twenty six. They had done an investor day in December

0:30:34.880 --> 0:30:38.520
<v Speaker 11>and already weigh out twenty twenty six guidance and they

0:30:38.600 --> 0:30:40.600
<v Speaker 11>kept it the same, So that was a little bit

0:30:40.600 --> 0:30:43.200
<v Speaker 11>of a sigh of relief for investors in managed care.

0:30:43.560 --> 0:30:46.440
<v Speaker 11>Managed care has had a pretty challenging couple of years.

0:30:47.320 --> 0:30:51.640
<v Speaker 11>Most recently, the Center for Medicare and Medicaid came out

0:30:51.640 --> 0:30:55.120
<v Speaker 11>with some advanced rates for Medicare payments in twenty seven.

0:30:55.240 --> 0:30:57.760
<v Speaker 11>That caused all the stocks, whether it was United Health

0:30:57.880 --> 0:31:02.040
<v Speaker 11>or Humanity, a pullback pretty Significecantly, the important takeaway, I

0:31:02.080 --> 0:31:05.240
<v Speaker 11>think was that even though that happened and CBS is

0:31:05.240 --> 0:31:09.560
<v Speaker 11>going to advocate for better payment rates, their goal of

0:31:09.640 --> 0:31:14.040
<v Speaker 11>turning their healthcare benefits business around isn't really dependent on that,

0:31:14.160 --> 0:31:15.840
<v Speaker 11>and they're still going to hit their margin targets in

0:31:15.880 --> 0:31:16.360
<v Speaker 11>the future.

0:31:17.040 --> 0:31:20.400
<v Speaker 3>Did they talk about what kind of risks are involved.

0:31:20.440 --> 0:31:24.560
<v Speaker 3>I mean, obviously big policy risks remain a headwind here

0:31:24.640 --> 0:31:27.040
<v Speaker 3>for not just CBS, but for the entire sector. But

0:31:27.160 --> 0:31:29.800
<v Speaker 3>did they address how they're thinking through those challenges.

0:31:29.920 --> 0:31:33.920
<v Speaker 11>Well, the industry has been in the crosshairs of Washington

0:31:34.000 --> 0:31:38.560
<v Speaker 11>forever and that hasn't really changed. I mean, interestingly enough,

0:31:39.040 --> 0:31:42.440
<v Speaker 11>Senator Warren and one of the Republican senators actually just

0:31:42.440 --> 0:31:45.880
<v Speaker 11>introduced another bill to break up these companies. So you

0:31:45.880 --> 0:31:49.160
<v Speaker 11>know that's I think table stakes for them. You know,

0:31:49.160 --> 0:31:52.560
<v Speaker 11>they're always in the crosshairs here. Whether we actually see

0:31:52.600 --> 0:31:55.560
<v Speaker 11>some huge sea change out of Washington. I mean, do

0:31:55.600 --> 0:31:57.000
<v Speaker 11>I think the odds are better than they were in

0:31:57.040 --> 0:31:59.160
<v Speaker 11>the past, Yes, But I don't know that a lot

0:31:59.160 --> 0:32:01.920
<v Speaker 11>of people or investors worry about that on the day

0:32:01.960 --> 0:32:03.680
<v Speaker 11>to day. I think it's a pretty wee percent chance

0:32:03.720 --> 0:32:06.000
<v Speaker 11>that these companies get broken up anytime soon.

0:32:06.240 --> 0:32:08.720
<v Speaker 2>What's the call on the CBS and and this peer

0:32:08.760 --> 0:32:11.560
<v Speaker 2>group here of healthcare? Is it supply chain? Is that

0:32:11.720 --> 0:32:16.040
<v Speaker 2>the sector or it could be Okay, I have your industry.

0:32:16.080 --> 0:32:19.240
<v Speaker 11>I have no idea of it as healthcare services more broadly,

0:32:19.320 --> 0:32:21.840
<v Speaker 11>and so that encompasses everything from the managed care companies

0:32:21.840 --> 0:32:25.000
<v Speaker 11>to hospitals, shriters, everything under the sun.

0:32:25.200 --> 0:32:27.600
<v Speaker 2>I watched the pit though, so I'm getting smarter about

0:32:27.600 --> 0:32:28.760
<v Speaker 2>the whole emergency room thing.

0:32:30.360 --> 0:32:32.440
<v Speaker 11>I think the call here is we're very much in

0:32:32.440 --> 0:32:36.520
<v Speaker 11>a holding pattern in this world of managed care. There's

0:32:36.560 --> 0:32:39.680
<v Speaker 11>a lot of things swirling around in terms of these

0:32:39.880 --> 0:32:43.560
<v Speaker 11>Medicare rates and star ratings and really like the nuances

0:32:43.640 --> 0:32:46.400
<v Speaker 11>of how they run their businesses, and there's been a

0:32:46.960 --> 0:32:51.320
<v Speaker 11>there's been a real hard how do I say, this

0:32:51.640 --> 0:32:56.320
<v Speaker 11>era of compression and margin for those businesses, and everybody's

0:32:56.320 --> 0:32:59.200
<v Speaker 11>trying to build that back up, and it's you know,

0:32:59.240 --> 0:33:02.280
<v Speaker 11>when your contract and you have members coming in and

0:33:02.280 --> 0:33:04.200
<v Speaker 11>out of plans and you're dealing with the government. These

0:33:04.200 --> 0:33:07.680
<v Speaker 11>things don't get fixed overnight. So I think a lot

0:33:07.720 --> 0:33:10.400
<v Speaker 11>of people are waiting for more quarity on where things

0:33:10.440 --> 0:33:13.000
<v Speaker 11>are going and can the improvements that a lot of

0:33:13.000 --> 0:33:15.640
<v Speaker 11>these companies have talked about actually show up in the numbers.

0:33:16.320 --> 0:33:19.800
<v Speaker 3>Who would you say is CBS's main competitor, because it's

0:33:19.840 --> 0:33:23.520
<v Speaker 3>a vertically integrated healthcare company. It's no longer a drug store.

0:33:24.680 --> 0:33:26.880
<v Speaker 3>Managed care is a big part of its business. Once

0:33:26.960 --> 0:33:28.800
<v Speaker 3>upon a time, I might have said Walgreens, but that's

0:33:28.840 --> 0:33:29.800
<v Speaker 3>not the case anymore.

0:33:29.960 --> 0:33:32.920
<v Speaker 11>Yeah, I mean, they're very clearly the best run pharmacy

0:33:32.960 --> 0:33:36.280
<v Speaker 11>out there. Now that Walgreens has succumbed to private equity

0:33:36.600 --> 0:33:38.920
<v Speaker 11>and we've seen right aid just go out of business.

0:33:39.440 --> 0:33:42.760
<v Speaker 11>I mean, the best peer comparison is United Healthcare, but

0:33:42.800 --> 0:33:46.440
<v Speaker 11>even then they're very different animals because United Healthcare owns

0:33:46.440 --> 0:33:49.040
<v Speaker 11>a lot of technology assets that CBS doesn't. They also

0:33:49.160 --> 0:33:53.160
<v Speaker 11>own a ton of provider assets that CBS doesn't. But

0:33:53.440 --> 0:33:56.400
<v Speaker 11>in the areas of managed care and the PBM they

0:33:56.440 --> 0:33:59.560
<v Speaker 11>match up pretty well. And then there's sigmas in that

0:33:59.600 --> 0:34:01.720
<v Speaker 11>business those two businesses as well.

0:34:01.880 --> 0:34:04.560
<v Speaker 2>Our thanks to Jonathan Palmer, Senior Equity Research Achannels at

0:34:04.560 --> 0:34:06.120
<v Speaker 2>Bloomberg Intelligence.

0:34:05.760 --> 0:34:09.160
<v Speaker 3>We move next to news from the hospitality giant Hilton Worldwide.

0:34:09.200 --> 0:34:12.640
<v Speaker 2>This week, Hilton reported fourth quarter earnings that beat analyst expectations.

0:34:12.760 --> 0:34:15.320
<v Speaker 3>The company's ability to add new hotels to its global

0:34:15.360 --> 0:34:16.840
<v Speaker 3>network ended up driving growth.

0:34:17.000 --> 0:34:18.880
<v Speaker 2>For more on this, we were joined by Brian Eggert,

0:34:18.960 --> 0:34:22.239
<v Speaker 2>Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Gaming and Launching analysts. We first asked

0:34:22.239 --> 0:34:24.880
<v Speaker 2>Brian about what Hilton reported from an earnings perspective.

0:34:25.120 --> 0:34:26.920
<v Speaker 9>Yeah, so, I mean what we saw in the quarter

0:34:27.280 --> 0:34:30.319
<v Speaker 9>was kind of mixed in terms of us being down

0:34:30.360 --> 0:34:32.040
<v Speaker 9>a little bit or maybe a little blow rep part

0:34:32.080 --> 0:34:35.200
<v Speaker 9>in the fourth quarter, mostly because of the government shutdown,

0:34:35.320 --> 0:34:39.319
<v Speaker 9>so a bit weaker in bound travel to the US

0:34:39.360 --> 0:34:41.239
<v Speaker 9>a little bit weaker governor travel, But the ALC for

0:34:41.320 --> 0:34:43.879
<v Speaker 9>next year, I should say, this year one twenty six

0:34:43.960 --> 0:34:45.960
<v Speaker 9>is pretty good, one to two percent report growth.

0:34:46.200 --> 0:34:48.160
<v Speaker 2>That's revenue per available.

0:34:47.760 --> 0:34:51.920
<v Speaker 9>Per available room. Yeah, and so leisure group, luxury all

0:34:52.280 --> 0:34:55.479
<v Speaker 9>kind of strong. International, a little stronger than the US.

0:34:55.560 --> 0:34:58.320
<v Speaker 9>But although this is an aging up cycle in the

0:34:58.360 --> 0:35:00.440
<v Speaker 9>lodging industry, it's still got some white to it.

0:35:01.280 --> 0:35:01.480
<v Speaker 7>Now.

0:35:01.600 --> 0:35:04.719
<v Speaker 3>Hilton, along with many of the other hotel companies like Marriott,

0:35:05.080 --> 0:35:07.640
<v Speaker 3>has an asset light business model, which means that it's

0:35:07.680 --> 0:35:10.440
<v Speaker 3>brand licensing right. They don't actually own and manage any

0:35:10.480 --> 0:35:13.279
<v Speaker 3>of their own properties, and that, you know, allows it

0:35:13.320 --> 0:35:15.600
<v Speaker 3>to move more nimbly. The profit margins are much higher.

0:35:15.760 --> 0:35:17.160
<v Speaker 3>What's the downside of that, Brian?

0:35:17.800 --> 0:35:19.719
<v Speaker 9>So, I mean, there's some benefit actually owning the real

0:35:19.840 --> 0:35:22.040
<v Speaker 9>estate when you're really in an upcycle. But this kind

0:35:22.040 --> 0:35:25.440
<v Speaker 9>of fee base model is a very capital efficient way

0:35:25.680 --> 0:35:27.920
<v Speaker 9>to expand and grow. You get your franchise fees and

0:35:27.960 --> 0:35:30.319
<v Speaker 9>management fees. They've got a little bit of an hotel

0:35:30.560 --> 0:35:34.880
<v Speaker 9>exposure as well. But most of the lodging companies, separate

0:35:34.880 --> 0:35:39.120
<v Speaker 9>from the Reeds, are actually asset white manager franchisers with

0:35:39.200 --> 0:35:40.800
<v Speaker 9>some own assets.

0:35:40.480 --> 0:35:42.240
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, I'm looking at you know, you've got a company

0:35:42.280 --> 0:35:45.319
<v Speaker 2>with you know, thirteen billion of revenue call it, you know,

0:35:45.719 --> 0:35:49.600
<v Speaker 2>four billion of EBATA, one hundred million of CAPEX. Are

0:35:49.640 --> 0:35:53.560
<v Speaker 2>you kidding me? That is awesome? So we build who

0:35:53.680 --> 0:35:56.080
<v Speaker 2>builds a If Hilton wants to build a new hotel

0:35:56.120 --> 0:35:58.920
<v Speaker 2>in South Beach, they don't build it. Somebody else builds it.

0:35:58.960 --> 0:36:01.799
<v Speaker 9>Yeah, so you're you have like ownership entities. Obviously you've

0:36:01.800 --> 0:36:05.040
<v Speaker 9>got the rates like park hotels, resorts and others that

0:36:05.160 --> 0:36:07.399
<v Speaker 9>own the real estate. So this is, as you said,

0:36:07.440 --> 0:36:10.840
<v Speaker 9>like an asset light franchised management tree driven business with

0:36:10.920 --> 0:36:13.480
<v Speaker 9>someone hotels. There is some otel exposure.

0:36:14.120 --> 0:36:15.319
<v Speaker 2>So what do they do with all the free cash

0:36:15.400 --> 0:36:17.239
<v Speaker 2>interview they get? You know, most of that ebadad goes

0:36:17.280 --> 0:36:18.399
<v Speaker 2>down to the free cash line.

0:36:18.440 --> 0:36:20.920
<v Speaker 9>They have been returning capital, right, so they've got capital

0:36:20.920 --> 0:36:25.040
<v Speaker 9>returns and you know, there is real opportunity for growth

0:36:25.480 --> 0:36:28.239
<v Speaker 9>within their business model and a lot of that is international,

0:36:28.400 --> 0:36:30.160
<v Speaker 9>a lot of conversions, you know, a lot of conversions

0:36:30.200 --> 0:36:33.160
<v Speaker 9>from other assets that fit very well under their brand flags.

0:36:33.200 --> 0:36:35.719
<v Speaker 9>And they have also been launching some new brands as

0:36:35.760 --> 0:36:38.000
<v Speaker 9>well and kind of that lifestyle category.

0:36:38.040 --> 0:36:39.760
<v Speaker 3>How many brands do they have right now.

0:36:40.040 --> 0:36:42.319
<v Speaker 9>So where are they now? I know Marriott's thirty one.

0:36:42.320 --> 0:36:45.680
<v Speaker 9>I'm turning member, Well that's all those thirty one is

0:36:45.680 --> 0:36:48.640
<v Speaker 9>such a slice it is. I mean, you know, I

0:36:48.680 --> 0:36:51.920
<v Speaker 9>think over all of you slice the market segment wise.

0:36:52.440 --> 0:36:55.440
<v Speaker 9>Hyatt and Marriott are more prominent in the luxury high stand.

0:36:56.440 --> 0:36:58.759
<v Speaker 9>Hilton has some luxury, but it's also got a very

0:36:58.800 --> 0:37:02.200
<v Speaker 9>solid kind of mid scale women at service portfolio. And

0:37:02.239 --> 0:37:04.480
<v Speaker 9>so what you tend to see is that in this environment,

0:37:04.880 --> 0:37:10.080
<v Speaker 9>luxury upscale tends to outperforming, and the limited services is

0:37:10.239 --> 0:37:13.880
<v Speaker 9>somewhat weaker, partly because that's where you've got the government travel,

0:37:14.320 --> 0:37:18.040
<v Speaker 9>you've got the transit, independent business travel, But stuff like

0:37:18.360 --> 0:37:25.520
<v Speaker 9>leisure group luxury, particularly international markets UA, Europe, Non China, Asia,

0:37:25.880 --> 0:37:27.240
<v Speaker 9>all have been really quite strong.

0:37:27.640 --> 0:37:31.000
<v Speaker 3>That was Brian Egger, Bloomberg Intelligence, Senior Gaming and Lodging analyst.

0:37:31.320 --> 0:37:34.040
<v Speaker 2>That's this week's edition of Bloomberg Intelligence on Bloomberg Radio,

0:37:34.120 --> 0:37:36.600
<v Speaker 2>providing in depth research and data on two thousand companies

0:37:36.600 --> 0:37:37.920
<v Speaker 2>and one hundred and thirty industries.

0:37:38.040 --> 0:37:40.640
<v Speaker 3>And remember you can access Bloomberg Intelligence via b I

0:37:40.760 --> 0:37:42.960
<v Speaker 3>go on the terminal. I'm Scarlett Foo.

0:37:42.760 --> 0:37:45.200
<v Speaker 2>And I'm Paul Sweeney. Stay with us. Today's top stories

0:37:45.200 --> 0:37:48.839
<v Speaker 2>and global business headlines are coming up right now.