Speaker 1: Hey there, everybody. Welcome to the Super Bowl edition of
Speaker 1: the Betting Pros NFL Podcast, brought to you by bet MGM.
Speaker 1: I'm your host, Dan Harris. You can find me on
Speaker 1: Twitter at Dan Harris eighty. This is it the biggest
Speaker 1: gambling event of the year, The Super Bowl is here.
Speaker 1: It's an event so big that we're bringing on not
Speaker 1: just one, but two guests. You love them both. I
Speaker 1: mildly tolerate them both. They are Sean Green, co creator
Speaker 1: and co host of the Sports Gambling Podcast, and Andrew Cayley,
Speaker 1: a senior publishing editor over at Covers. Gentlemen, how are you.
Speaker 2: I'm doing great, man, Thanks for having me on.
Speaker 3: I'm really excited to be here.
Speaker 1: Yeah, this is where you guys are gonna have to
Speaker 1: be really careful because you're just gonna both you're There
Speaker 1: are gonna be periods where you guys are just gonna
Speaker 1: sit there in silence because Andrew's gonna be like, oh,
Speaker 1: I think Sean's gonna talk, and so it's gonna be like,
Speaker 1: I think Andrew's gonna talk. So it's fine, it doesn't matter.
Speaker 1: You guys can just talk. Don't even worry about it.
Speaker 1: So here's how things are gonna go today. We're gonna
Speaker 1: break down the game itself with the spread and the
Speaker 1: over under, and then we're gonna move to some props,
Speaker 1: which is really where things get crazy in the Super Bowl.
Speaker 1: Is that good with you, guys? Sean? Is that good
Speaker 1: with you? Yeah slock it in, Andrew? Is that good
Speaker 1: with you?
Speaker 3: That's that's awesome with me. Let's not hold anything back.
Speaker 1: All right, it's the last game of the season. Can't
Speaker 1: hold anything all right? Good? But before we get into it, uh,
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Speaker 1: or instantly. All right, gentlemen, the spread has stayed pretty
Speaker 1: consistent here throughout the week. The Chiefs are laying one
Speaker 1: and a half. The total has climbed since it first opened,
Speaker 1: but I kind of expected it to keep going as
Speaker 1: the public was pounding it. It's kind of settled right
Speaker 1: now at fifty four and a half. We'll let Sean
Speaker 1: start us off here on the games, Andrew you can
Speaker 1: start us off first on the prop. So, Sean, what's
Speaker 1: your reaction here? How are you breaking down this spread
Speaker 1: and the total?
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean I didn't think the spread would ever
Speaker 2: get up to three points because I think, you know,
Speaker 2: everyone would kind of hammer the forty nine ers if
Speaker 2: it got up to three points. I instinctively just look
Speaker 2: to the under. In general, I'm gonna be on the
Speaker 2: under in this game. I'm I'm like you, I'm going
Speaker 2: to wait and see if it gets bet up anymore.
Speaker 2: I was hoping to get it like maybe fifty six,
Speaker 2: but even fifty four and a half, I'm on the under.
Speaker 2: I'm on the Chiefs as well. I see it like
Speaker 2: thirty one twenty one. I think it's just Andy Reid's time.
Speaker 2: More than anything, it's just Andy Reid's time. He leads
Speaker 2: NFL coaches for the amount of wins in the regular
Speaker 2: season amount of playoff wins without winning a championship. I
Speaker 2: think this year is the year he kind of gets
Speaker 2: the monkey off his back. He looks amazing in a
Speaker 2: wine shirt down in Miami there, and really, matchup wise,
Speaker 2: you could make a great case for the forty nine ers,
Speaker 2: And normally I would lean to a team like the
Speaker 2: forty nine ers, physical defense, able to run the ball,
Speaker 2: control the clock. I just think Patrick Mahomes. I'm not
Speaker 2: gonna go against Patrick Mahomes here. He really is the
Speaker 2: I mean, you know it sounds cliche, but I think
Speaker 2: he's enough to carry this team. And we'll get into
Speaker 2: it in the props as far as the style of
Speaker 2: the game. But I really think the Chiefs at the
Speaker 2: end of the day will be able to move the
Speaker 2: ball and get more points than the forty nine ers,
Speaker 2: and that's what matters now.
Speaker 1: Andrew, you're a noted hater of Hawaiian shirts, So how
Speaker 1: do you feel here about the Chiefs slaying one and
Speaker 1: a half in the total at fifty four and a half.
Speaker 3: I was a little surprised, actually, the number like a
Speaker 3: bunch of places that opened at a pick and quickly
Speaker 3: moved to the one and a half. The way that
Speaker 3: the Niners beat up on the Packers, though I was
Speaker 3: really thinking, like, geez, maybe they're gonna make the Niners
Speaker 3: the favorites here, just the way that the Chiefs have
Speaker 3: kind of like fallen behind a bit in games and
Speaker 3: the competition, not that the Niners competition was much better,
Speaker 3: but the playing the Titans in the not taking anything
Speaker 3: away from the Titans, but very one dimensional, and once
Speaker 3: the Chiefs got up in that game, you never really
Speaker 3: felt like the Titans were going to be able to
Speaker 3: come back. So it sounds like the early money in
Speaker 3: Vegas too, is saying that the books are going to
Speaker 3: need the Chiefs, and it can be usually an early
Speaker 3: indicator like that we're going to see a little more
Speaker 3: public money. Obviously in the Super Bowl, you're going to
Speaker 3: see most of the public money come in on a Friday,
Speaker 3: a Saturday, and a Sunday before the game, so there
Speaker 3: still could be a bit of movement. I'm going to
Speaker 3: take the Chiefs now because I think the Chiefs are
Speaker 3: the more public team heading into the game, so I
Speaker 3: expected to maybe get up to two. I've seen two
Speaker 3: at a couple of dirty offshores there, and but I'll
Speaker 3: probably jump on the Chiefs right now. I agree with Sean.
Speaker 3: I think Patrick Mahomes is just too We're seeing this
Speaker 3: incredible run that he's doing right now, eight touchdowns, no
Speaker 3: interceptions in the playoffs, and just they have so many
Speaker 3: talented weapons at his disposal that I know that I
Speaker 3: don't want to take anything away from the Niners defense.
Speaker 3: And usually when two teams meet up like this, the
Speaker 3: great offense versus the great defense. Yeah, yeah, the Chiefs
Speaker 3: defenses is okay at least against the pass, and the
Speaker 3: Niners offense is one of the highest scoring in the league,
Speaker 3: so you can't really like count them out. But this
Speaker 3: is really all about the offense versus that the Chiefs
Speaker 3: offense versus that Niners defense. And I'm agreeing with Sean.
Speaker 3: I can't, I can't not back Mahomes in this spot.
Speaker 3: And I think Andy Reid's gonna come up with a
Speaker 3: good game play. Not that Chana Hand won't either, but
Speaker 3: I like I'm gonna lay that money with the Chiefs.
Speaker 3: As for the total, it's the number seems about right.
Speaker 3: I think that's another number. Like you said, like, there's
Speaker 3: gonna be a lot of public over money heading into
Speaker 3: the heading into the weekend here. So if you like
Speaker 3: the over get it now. But also, like Sean, I hate,
Speaker 3: I hate agreeing to this done. But I'm gonna be
Speaker 3: on the under a Well, I see a game something
Speaker 3: like that, like a twenty eight to twenty one kind
Speaker 3: of game.
Speaker 1: Yeah, So here's here's how I'm coming at it. I
Speaker 1: don't really disagree, unfortunately, with anything you guys have said.
Speaker 1: I know it would make for a better podcasts. You
Speaker 1: guys are not coming in. I will say this, when
Speaker 1: I look at the game, I do think again, and
Speaker 1: I'm not sure you guys are really disagree with this
Speaker 1: part of it. I think the forty nine ers are
Speaker 1: probably overall a better team, I think with their defense
Speaker 1: fully healthy, when you have you know, a Bosa being
Speaker 1: able to rush the quarterback. With Ford, you have Kwan
Speaker 1: Alexander and they're able to stop the run. You have
Speaker 1: tart back since they've been at full health. They're just
Speaker 1: a really, really really scary unit. And the offense, you know, people,
Speaker 1: you know, it's like people are taking a negative from
Speaker 1: the fact that Garoppolo through eight times, like oh, Shannon
Speaker 1: doesn't like Garoppolo, or he thinks they just didn't have
Speaker 1: to they could run the ball all the entire time.
Speaker 1: I think, Yeah, Garoppolo obviously has certainly has the potential
Speaker 1: to have a terrible game, right. I mean, we've seen
Speaker 1: we've certainly seen him do stuff where he's he's thrown
Speaker 1: a bad interception or two. And even against the Vikings
Speaker 1: you know where they dominated right early on, he threw
Speaker 1: that bad pick, so you could see that. But overall, realistically,
Speaker 1: when I see these teams match up, it strikes me
Speaker 1: as the forty nine ers have the better team. But
Speaker 1: you both have said it, and that is Patrick Holmes,
Speaker 1: and it's just I can't do it like I can't
Speaker 1: pull the trigger on betting. I probably I might be
Speaker 1: the only person in the United States who's not going
Speaker 1: to bet on the actual spread in the in the
Speaker 1: Super Bowl.
Speaker 3: Because right I think I might not either.
Speaker 1: Oh all right, you and I can have a party
Speaker 1: together then.
Speaker 2: And I thought about not betting the spread, but then
Speaker 2: I realized the podcast listeners would just make fun of me,
Speaker 2: and so I got peer pressure into betting the spread.
Speaker 2: But yeah, again, I feel better about some of these
Speaker 2: props than I do the actual side.
Speaker 1: And again at super Bowl super Bowls of one day,
Speaker 1: where like, props are totally fine, Like you know, lead
Speaker 1: with all the props, and I love props generally speaking,
Speaker 1: because as you know, I do fantasy stuff and I
Speaker 1: project each player. So with that, I'm really like I
Speaker 1: focus a lot on the props. But this is a
Speaker 1: game between just it's it's totally teams. I mean, the
Speaker 1: Chiefs have won eight games in a row. You've got
Speaker 1: the whole Andy reidoff a by thing. You know, You've
Speaker 1: got the forty nine ers who get to the quarterback
Speaker 1: without blitzing, as well as anyone against a quarterback that
Speaker 1: sacked at the lowest rate in the league. You know,
Speaker 1: it's just really one of these games. You're like, I
Speaker 1: don't know as for the total. By the way, I
Speaker 1: have bet the under. I believe on the last two
Speaker 1: Chiefs playoff games that has not gone well. And for
Speaker 1: this I agree now when I first looked at it
Speaker 1: and we analyze it, when the lines first broke me
Speaker 1: and Rich Ryan, I think it opened at fifty two
Speaker 1: and a half and at that point I was like,
Speaker 1: there's no way I'm taking the under on fifty two
Speaker 1: and a half. Just you know, it struck me. It's
Speaker 1: a gut reaction. It was sort of like, you know,
Speaker 1: it's gonna climb. But in the end, now that it's
Speaker 1: sitting at fifty four and a half, like I'm like, man,
Speaker 1: if I'm really thinking about this, the value is clearly
Speaker 1: on the under right now, Like it's very clearly on
Speaker 1: the under. But I can't do it because you know,
Speaker 1: you know, with Mahomes, there just is nothing. I mean,
Speaker 1: he can he can just go crazy. So I guess
Speaker 1: the last thing I'll ask is, you know, the public,
Speaker 1: because this is the only game of the year where
Speaker 1: probably the sharp betters have a pretty minimal impact, right,
Speaker 1: I mean, there's so much public money coming in, and
Speaker 1: the public money is enough to kind of move these lines.
Speaker 1: There's gonna be a ton of public money probably that
Speaker 1: comes in what Sunday, like Sunday.
Speaker 3: Morning, Sunday.
Speaker 1: Do you think that the total is going to continue
Speaker 1: to grow up then? I mean it's gonna be at
Speaker 1: fifty five fifty five and a half because everybody, you know,
Speaker 1: the public glove's over. So yeah, is this gonna go
Speaker 1: up to fifty five fifty five and a half If
Speaker 1: you like the over, should you be taking it now?
Speaker 3: I think so because I'm there's gonna be a lot
Speaker 3: of You're gonna see a lot of chiefs over parlays
Speaker 3: as well, too, Like people can't say no to that,
Speaker 3: to that parlay there, even though I said, I'll say
Speaker 3: right now, stay away, but it's there. It's gonna come
Speaker 3: fast and furious Sunday, and it wouldn't be out of
Speaker 3: the ordinary to see that number jump up another half
Speaker 3: point or so.
Speaker 2: Yeah. To add add to that, my dad is one
Speaker 2: of the more square vetters around, texted me, I'm going
Speaker 2: chiefs in the over, so he's I don't think he's
Speaker 2: ever bet the under. So if that's any indication I
Speaker 2: think it'll go up if it goes anywhere. But yeah,
Speaker 2: i'd like, i'd hope to get a fifty six, but
Speaker 2: I'm not you know, I'd be shocked if it goes down.
Speaker 2: That's what i'd say.
Speaker 1: Yeah, Well, so is there any other bet out of
Speaker 1: curiosity before we kind of you know, get into the
Speaker 1: player prop or on the game props. Is there any
Speaker 1: part of it? Like I kind of could see this
Speaker 1: coming out and at some point Mahomes is going to
Speaker 1: be unleashed, right, at some point he's gonna go nuts.
Speaker 1: But we've seen him come out a little flat. I
Speaker 1: mean against the Titans. It's not like, you know, they
Speaker 1: came in from behind. Against the Texans, they were obviously
Speaker 1: getting blown out completely. I could see a bet on
Speaker 1: the forty nine ers, like in the first quarter or
Speaker 1: maybe even in the first half or something like that.
Speaker 1: So if I'm gonna bet the spread, I could see
Speaker 1: doing something like that, right, But I think on the
Speaker 1: overall total, Man, this is a great game. It's gonna
Speaker 1: be an exciting game.
Speaker 3: It's really hard to give a lean because I can
Speaker 3: see it happening so many different like the outcome coming
Speaker 3: from so many different ways. So it's kind of difficult,
Speaker 3: it's gonna be a lot of fun.
Speaker 1: Yeah, So basically we've done a great job of basically
Speaker 1: being like, I don't know, I guess Patrick Mahomes is great,
Speaker 1: but honestly, that is you know, to see this spread
Speaker 1: like this, it is the matchup that everybody kind of
Speaker 1: wanted by the time, you know, the Ravens were out.
Speaker 1: It's what we're gonna get. It's really gonna be interesting
Speaker 1: because the last time you saw this, you know, not
Speaker 1: to undersell the forty nine ers offense, which is very,
Speaker 1: very good in its own right, but the last time
Speaker 1: you saw this really really elite defensive team against what
Speaker 1: looks like this unstoppable offense, you know, you wound up
Speaker 1: with the Seahawks just absolutely destroying the prodcast in that game.
Speaker 1: And that was a game too where the spread was
Speaker 1: basically a pick them right. It was pretty close there.
Speaker 1: So hopefully we don't see a repeat of that and
Speaker 1: it's a good game all the way through. But if not,
Speaker 1: don't worry about it, because we're gonna have some player
Speaker 1: props to talk about.
Speaker 2: Now.
Speaker 1: Before we get there, let us talk briefly about bet
Speaker 1: MGM and the bet MGM Sports app. If you have
Speaker 1: your phone handy, search for the bet MGM Sports app
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Speaker 1: up for an account. It's gonna ask if you have
Speaker 1: a promo code. It is my last name, Harris. Deposit
Speaker 1: whatever amount you want and you're ready to bet, and
Speaker 1: right now, make sure your first bet is a one
Speaker 1: dollar money line bet on either the Chiefs or the
Speaker 1: forty nine ers to win the Super Bowl. If you do,
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Speaker 1: has never been a Super Bowl where neither team scored
Speaker 1: a touchdown and we are sitting here debating the over
Speaker 1: under of fifty four and a half, so you're probably
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Speaker 1: got a gambling problem, call one eight hundred gample. All right, guys,
Speaker 1: let's move on here to some prop bets. As everyone knows,
Speaker 1: we use the Betting Pros consensus lines for these spreads
Speaker 1: and over unders today and throughout the season, we're gonna
Speaker 1: do the same thing here for prop bets. You can
Speaker 1: find consensus player props over at Bettingpros dot com slash props,
Speaker 1: and you can find consensus game props over at Bettingpros
Speaker 1: dot com slash game props. So we'll talk about some
Speaker 1: of our favorite plays. I'll give some of my thoughts.
Speaker 1: But Andrew Sean got to start off the spread and
Speaker 1: the total, So why don't you start us off with
Speaker 1: game player prop whatever you want to talk about.
Speaker 3: Should we start with something before the game actually starts
Speaker 3: and go with the anthem?
Speaker 1: Oh boy, do you have an anthem call?
Speaker 3: We're going with the over on the anthem again this year,
Speaker 3: even though the numbers started off at like one to
Speaker 3: nineteen and a half at some places, and I'm seeing
Speaker 3: it as high as one twenty four and a half
Speaker 3: with one hundred and twenty four seconds left, so two
Speaker 3: minutes and four point five seconds. Had a little controversy
Speaker 3: last year with Gladys Knights with her annunciation of the
Speaker 3: word brave and uh so that was very exciting. A
Speaker 3: lot of books, I think most most books I think
Speaker 3: ended up paying both ways last year. So it's gonna
Speaker 3: be interesting. Levado, I think, is gonna melk it and
Speaker 3: her last performance at the at the McGregor fight that
Speaker 3: that went way over. I just the the juice is
Speaker 3: on the over still. It's a tough one. But this
Speaker 3: is the one of the most fun props I have
Speaker 3: every year. Everyone's everyone's into it right away and we
Speaker 3: all sit there, sit around timing it ourselves and watching
Speaker 3: all I think. I think she uh and we're all
Speaker 3: screaming the teeth over over, over and and and we're
Speaker 3: gonna go We're gonna start with an over on the anthem. One. Well,
Speaker 3: I'm seeing one twenty four and a half right now,
Speaker 3: I'll still take the over on that.
Speaker 1: Sean, you're a noted Demi Lovado fan. Do you have
Speaker 1: any any thoughts on that one?
Speaker 2: Uh? Yeah, no, I mean I'm not gonna take the
Speaker 2: under on the national anthem. I did see a prop
Speaker 2: bet related to the national anthem that you would not
Speaker 2: use a mic stand at plus one forty. I like
Speaker 2: that anytime you can get you know, a dog for
Speaker 2: not using a mic stand, I'm in on that. But
Speaker 2: for my first official prep bet here, I'm gonna go
Speaker 2: to the game. We kept talking about Patrick Mahomes and
Speaker 2: I just the style of game that I see happening.
Speaker 2: I think Patrick Mahomes is going to be running the
Speaker 2: ball a lot. In the last two playoff games he
Speaker 2: rushed for fifty three yards a piece and his total
Speaker 2: is set at thirty and a half. I love the
Speaker 2: over here on Patrick Mahomes. I think it's a I
Speaker 2: mean San Francisco is a great defensive line. If they're
Speaker 2: not disciplined with the rush lanes, He's going to be
Speaker 2: running all over the place, getting first downs, keeping drives alive.
Speaker 2: And if you look at kind of a similar team
Speaker 2: in a couple senses as far as type of offense
Speaker 2: they run. The Arizona Cardinals really at times gave the
Speaker 2: forty nine ers, you know, they kind of struggled with
Speaker 2: them considering how much better the forty nine ers were
Speaker 2: than the Cardinals. And if you look at Actuallyler Murray's
Speaker 2: games against him, he had thirty seven yards and then
Speaker 2: he had what was the other one, sorry, thirty four
Speaker 2: and sixty seven yards against the forty nine ers. So
Speaker 2: I think, you know, the Chiefs are much better version
Speaker 2: of that. And it just seems like in a must
Speaker 2: win game, you feel the need to scramble, pick up
Speaker 2: first downs, keep drives alive. And I think he's really
Speaker 2: going to do a lot with his legs.
Speaker 1: So this is an interesting one for me, I'll be honest,
Speaker 1: because he's so he's obviously he's had some bigger rushing
Speaker 1: games here in the playoffs, but before that he had
Speaker 1: done it surpassed the number five times in his entire career. Right,
Speaker 1: you think of Mahomes, You're like, oh, he's got so
Speaker 1: much speed, Right, he's going to be great. He done
Speaker 1: it five times over two seasons in the game. Right,
Speaker 1: This is not something where you kind of look at
Speaker 1: it and you're like, oh, boy, this is where it's
Speaker 1: going to be. It strikes me a little bit as
Speaker 1: when I look at it that way and I break
Speaker 1: it down, that the value strikes me on the under
Speaker 1: but I agree with you in that I wouldn't bet it.
Speaker 1: This is again one that I'm looking at and I'm
Speaker 1: sort of like, you know, the value strikes me here,
Speaker 1: but I'm like, but it's Patrick Mahomes. And I think
Speaker 1: the biggest thing, and you brought up is the forty
Speaker 1: nine ers play zone, which actually, I mean it's kind
Speaker 1: of gonna keep Mahomes in check right when you play
Speaker 1: man the corners are turned away so they're not necessarily
Speaker 1: watching him. But I think it really is that pass rush, right,
Speaker 1: I mean they the offensive line for the Chiefs. No
Speaker 1: offensive line at this point can stop that pass rush
Speaker 1: that's coming in with the four of you know, those
Speaker 1: guys that are really gonna get to Mahomes and he's
Speaker 1: gonna have to scramble. Now, He's gonna have plenty of
Speaker 1: times where he's just gonna kind of flick it fifty
Speaker 1: yards downfield. But I do think that the fact that
Speaker 1: they're gonna get to him so much probably and his
Speaker 1: scrambling ability, I can't pull the trigger on the under,
Speaker 1: so I don't love the over, you know, I think
Speaker 1: the value sort of lies in the under. But the
Speaker 1: reason why i'm you know, a little caught in between
Speaker 1: them this is because I do think are going to
Speaker 1: get to him quite a bit, and I do think
Speaker 1: that's going to force him out of pocket and make
Speaker 1: him run a little bit. So it's an interesting dot. Andrew,
Speaker 1: do you have any thoughts on that one.
Speaker 3: I agree with you that this number has been elevated
Speaker 3: because of the way he's performed the last two weeks,
Speaker 3: which is too bad. But once again where this is
Speaker 3: the most unfun podcast ever, I agree I'm not gonna
Speaker 3: fade him, just because I think that the Niners are
Speaker 3: really going to try hard to get pressure on Mahomes
Speaker 3: with that front four and without blitzing, and that old
Speaker 3: probably as disciplined as they are and as good as
Speaker 3: they are, he's athletic enough that he's gonna be able
Speaker 3: to find some time.
Speaker 1: Yeah. Well, because we're agreeing so much, Just to be clear,
Speaker 1: if I'm forced to choose a side here, I will
Speaker 1: go under. So there I disagree, bad job go ahead
Speaker 1: of Yeah.
Speaker 2: One more quick note, if you look at the regular
Speaker 2: season San Francisco third as far as QB rush yards allowed,
Speaker 2: just behind the Browns and the Bengals. So kind of
Speaker 2: a rare weakness for the forty nine ers, I think.
Speaker 2: Is their ability to the QB.
Speaker 1: Rush A good point? Yeah, no, it's it's gonna be
Speaker 1: an interesting one. And again, the guy like Mahomes, you know,
Speaker 1: I'm a big fan of the under on the QB
Speaker 1: rushing attempts. You know, if for no other reason, especially
Speaker 1: when the team is favored, not really comes to play here,
Speaker 1: but you're always gonna have the couple of kneel downs
Speaker 1: at the end maybe of the half or maybe the game.
Speaker 1: Right you'd be like, oh, man, like, what's what's Garoppolo's number?
Speaker 2: Four?
Speaker 1: Four and a half yards or something like that.
Speaker 3: I think it's four and a half.
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, So you know, that's an interesting one. But again,
Speaker 1: it's not a game where you necessarily expect them to win,
Speaker 1: so you can't count on the minus three yards that
Speaker 1: they're gonna get. But that is something where I always
Speaker 1: generally lean towards the under, especially whenever Rivers goes. I'll
Speaker 1: take that under half a yard. All oh yeah, but yeah,
Speaker 1: that's one of my favorites every time, but with this
Speaker 1: one it's really really tough. Again, I would lean towards
Speaker 1: the under, but it's something where I'm probably not gonna
Speaker 1: be able to pull the trigger on for all the
Speaker 1: reasons he said. And really the answer to everything involving
Speaker 1: the Chiefs and this game is, well, it's Mahomes, So
Speaker 1: it's really hard to go against them. Andrew, why don't
Speaker 1: you go ahead? What's your next one?
Speaker 3: Do you want me to continue with some more Mahomes
Speaker 3: as you just you do whatever you say, segue to
Speaker 3: be there, and no world, the world did your oyster going?
Speaker 3: Patrick Mahomes to throw a touchdown pass in the second
Speaker 3: quarter at minus one twenty. If you haven't heard, the
Speaker 3: Chiefs are pretty good in the second quarter. They led
Speaker 3: the league one hundred and seventy seven second quarter points
Speaker 3: this season, and like everyone has just seen forty two
Speaker 3: in those last two playoff games, and you guessed it,
Speaker 3: it's because of Patrick Mahomes. In the regular season, fifteen
Speaker 3: hundred yards, nine point two yards per attempt, ten touchdowns,
Speaker 3: one pick, one, thirteen point five passer rating, which was
Speaker 3: his best passer racing, best passer rating of any quarter
Speaker 3: this season, and that hasn't changed to the playoffs much.
Speaker 3: Sixteen for twenty two hundred and twelve yards, five touchdowns
Speaker 3: and no interceptions, plus that crazy twenty seven yard run
Speaker 3: in that in the AFC Championship there. Like I said
Speaker 3: before there, I think we have to give a little
Speaker 3: credit to that Niners defense. So maybe it takes the
Speaker 3: Chiefs a little while to get going, and the defense
Speaker 3: is always a little more hyped in the Super Bowl,
Speaker 3: where the offenses are a little more subdued at the
Speaker 3: start of a game with all the with all the
Speaker 3: hype or surrounding it, and Andy Reid still as even if
Speaker 3: the run game isn't successful, he's still gonna trot that
Speaker 3: out there early on in games at least and give
Speaker 3: you at least the look of a run game every
Speaker 3: now and then. So I think the bet that they'll
Speaker 3: get going in the second quarter and him to throw
Speaker 3: a touchdown pass there is is very very likely.
Speaker 1: Are the odds out of curiosity to the odds if
Speaker 1: you know off the top of your head to throw
Speaker 1: the touchdown pass the same in every quarter for him?
Speaker 3: Nope, they are not. That was I have them. The
Speaker 3: first quarter was plus one ten Okay, the third quarter
Speaker 3: was about even money, I think. No, the third quarter
Speaker 3: was also plus one, no, minus one ten, and the
Speaker 3: fourth quarter is also minus one twenty or something like that.
Speaker 1: Got it.
Speaker 3: So the second and fourth it's worthy most likely quarters
Speaker 3: for him to throw.
Speaker 1: Yep, yep, no, I mean I think that makes sense.
Speaker 1: And again what I said was to the extent I
Speaker 1: like a side quote unquote I needed this. It's kind
Speaker 1: of the forty nine ers early, maybe even the under
Speaker 1: in the first quarter, but the forty nine ers maybe
Speaker 1: in the first quarter. Because I do think generally it's
Speaker 1: Super Bowl, everybody kind of gets a little bit caught up.
Speaker 1: But I feel like they could, you know, come out
Speaker 1: a little conservative. I don't. And again, but Mahomes has
Speaker 1: gone a little nuts. They're behind the last two games. Like,
Speaker 1: oh now I have to Mahomes, you know, before that,
Speaker 1: it's sort of like, all right, let's play it straight.
Speaker 1: So that I like that call. All right, John, what
Speaker 1: do you have now?
Speaker 2: Well, We've had a lot of sensible, reasonable bets here
Speaker 2: and now I'm gonna mix things up and go for
Speaker 2: a pretty long shot. I got it over at the
Speaker 2: betting pros. This is Matt Braida our good buddy. I
Speaker 2: think now it's plus sixteen hundred. It's a long shot
Speaker 2: for a reason, but most rushing yards a plus sixteen hundred.
Speaker 2: Here's my scenario. Here's my scenario. Most are you know, Hey,
Speaker 2: he's gonna come in there, he'll have a good game,
Speaker 2: but he's coming off a huge two hundred yard game.
Speaker 2: Coleman I think, I mean, I still think that shoulder
Speaker 2: is going to be an issue.
Speaker 1: If I'm shit, there's no way, there's no way that
Speaker 1: Coleman is going to have a significant role in this game.
Speaker 1: There's right way.
Speaker 3: Yeah, so if he scores three touchdowns though it's certainly
Speaker 3: it's certainly possible.
Speaker 2: And I love, I love all the Brita overs and
Speaker 2: Coleman unders. A lot of them are off the board
Speaker 2: right now because of the shoulder injury. I got a
Speaker 2: couple early and certainly going to play him in some
Speaker 2: like DFS lineups. But yeah, Matt Braida to have the
Speaker 2: most rushing yards at plus sixteen hundred, you know, I
Speaker 2: mean if he was forty nine ers, it's like, really,
Speaker 2: their strength is just their how the offensive line just
Speaker 2: bowls people over. It kind of doesn't matter who's running
Speaker 2: the ball. And he just has to beat up most
Speaker 2: who maybe they're game planning around uh. And I think
Speaker 2: whoever's on San Francisco will out rush whoever's on Kansas City.
Speaker 2: So it's a long shot at plus sixteen hundred, but
Speaker 2: I think the scenario kind of makes sense.
Speaker 1: Does the scenario include Matt Brida invending a time machine
Speaker 1: and going back to the game against the Vikings and
Speaker 1: getting not fumbling at the very end of that game,
Speaker 1: because that's my big worry here, because again against the Packers,
Speaker 1: I mean that game was over and they had two
Speaker 1: running backs and they were like, nah, most just keep going,
Speaker 1: It's all right, get four hundred yards. I was like,
Speaker 1: Matt Brida's right there. I mean, the game's over and
Speaker 1: you know you got this only one running back and
Speaker 1: they're like, nah, nah, you're you're good man, You're good.
Speaker 1: By the way, just so you guys know, I will
Speaker 1: say separately that I have a bet. I believe it's
Speaker 1: sixteen to one on Moster to have the most rushing
Speaker 1: yards in the playoffs, And I thought it was then
Speaker 1: in the water with Derrick Henry surviving as long as
Speaker 1: he did and had big but with that two hundred
Speaker 1: twenty yard game. We all everybody rooted for, like remostered,
Speaker 1: I think it's like one hundred and sixty nine yards. Okay,
Speaker 1: so you guys are in on that, all right, rajing
Speaker 1: to get that one. Look, I don't I really honestly,
Speaker 1: I'm teasing you a little bit. I do not hate that,
Speaker 1: really because again, sixteen to one is good, and again
Speaker 1: Amian Williams, I mean, you know, he's he's pretty much
Speaker 1: topped out. Even when he's got all the carries at
Speaker 1: like twelve and a half carries, right, like, that's basically
Speaker 1: all he's gonna get, and the averages about four yards
Speaker 1: per carry whatever, he's probably gonna top out at fifty
Speaker 1: yards rushing. And with most art moster gets injured or
Speaker 1: most are fumbles. Who knows what they're gonna do. Right,
Speaker 1: you could see Brita sort of getting in here, and
Speaker 1: even if he busts out one long one. So I'm
Speaker 1: teasing you a little bit, you know, but crazy, I
Speaker 1: don't know, But I like it. Yeah, I mean I
Speaker 1: certainly like it. I mean not as much as Demi
Speaker 1: Levado to go over two oh four. But you know
Speaker 1: why the way I do like that because I think
Speaker 1: every singer wants to milk it as long as possible,
Speaker 1: but right, totally, all right, all right, Andrew, what else
Speaker 1: you got.
Speaker 3: Well, I'm gonna make you feel good here, and we're
Speaker 3: gonna go with We're gonna go with Moster to go
Speaker 3: over his rushing total here of well, see, let me
Speaker 3: check on betting pros O. I have it. I got
Speaker 3: it in at seventy one and a half. I was
Speaker 3: on a yeah last week with a guy who's a
Speaker 3: Niners fan, and he got it at sixty point five.
Speaker 1: When it first hit the mort it's seventy seven and
Speaker 1: a half.
Speaker 3: Now seventy seven and a half. Now I'm betting pros,
Speaker 3: so I still probably take the over.
Speaker 1: It's gonna be one hundred and sixty nine yards, don't
Speaker 1: worry about it.
Speaker 3: But we're getting to the point now where maybe the
Speaker 3: Unders getting a little more the side I'm gonna lean with.
Speaker 3: But the Chiefs have the twenty ninth ranked rush defense
Speaker 3: still in terms of DVOA, and everything I'm hearing is
Speaker 3: that the Niners are just gonna go big as much
Speaker 3: as possible. Lots of lots of lots of running to mostar,
Speaker 3: and lots of play action the kittle sort of thing.
Speaker 3: And I think this number is win or lose for
Speaker 3: the chiefs. This is a number that moster can get to.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean I again, it is the rare thing
Speaker 1: where man, it opened so much lower than it is
Speaker 1: right now at seventy seven and a half. So seventy
Speaker 1: seven and a half, honestly, you know, again one of
Speaker 1: these things where like most props, I would kind of
Speaker 1: lean towards the under on this one, but they are
Speaker 1: obviously going to try to do what they do best.
Speaker 1: Although I will give one of my props in a minute,
Speaker 1: but I you know, it strikes me as something where
Speaker 1: he is the only guy in town unless you know,
Speaker 1: of course, Shawn's noted. You know, buddy Matt Brita gets
Speaker 1: involved in there, and they're gonna run it as much
Speaker 1: as they can, and that is where you can attack
Speaker 1: the chief. So I certainly don't hate the idea of it.
Speaker 1: Seventy seven and a half at this point for me,
Speaker 1: is a little a little too much, but.
Speaker 3: It's getting there.
Speaker 1: It's getting there, it's getting pushed up. How about you, Sean,
Speaker 1: what else you got?
Speaker 2: Oh? Okay, Well, as you know, I'm a Philadelphi Eagles
Speaker 2: fan and we get we get a lot of grief
Speaker 2: for being mean fans and for cheering for injuries. So
Speaker 2: I'm going to show that I have a heart and
Speaker 2: I am going to there's a bet out there number
Speaker 2: of players carted off the field. It's said, it's said
Speaker 2: at a half, and I love the under at minus
Speaker 2: one forty. I think it's a super Bowl. I think
Speaker 2: if you get if you get banged up, whatever it is,
Speaker 2: they're gonna do whatever it takes to kind of walk off.
Speaker 2: No one wants to be carted off from the super Bowl.
Speaker 2: And again, you're cheering against injuries. You're just cheering for
Speaker 2: everyone to have a nice, safe, super Bowl and nothing
Speaker 2: really bad to happen. So you feel like you're on
Speaker 2: the right side of karma. So give me under a
Speaker 2: half for players carted off the field at minus one forty.
Speaker 1: I mean, here's the best part of that one is
Speaker 1: that you're first of all, you're constantly engaged, right because
Speaker 1: every single play you're like, come on, no injuries. Every
Speaker 1: time you get down, you're just on the player's side.
Speaker 1: Somebody goes down, they're like, oh, they look a little
Speaker 1: bit hurt. You're just totally rooting for them on either side.
Speaker 1: Not no, So you're doing it in the Philadelphia Eagles
Speaker 1: when you're like, get up, man, what are you doing?
Speaker 1: I'm doing it like the caring, like we care about you.
Speaker 1: It's okay, you can do it. You're a strong guy.
Speaker 1: Go ahead and get up there. So that's a crazy bet,
Speaker 1: but it is. I don't know what people did in
Speaker 1: the Super Bowl before prop bets, because if you can't
Speaker 1: root for people to not get injured, then what's at
Speaker 1: the point of watching me games? At this point? All right, Andrew,
Speaker 1: what do you have next?
Speaker 2: Next?
Speaker 3: We're gonna go with Travis Kelce's longest reception over twenty
Speaker 3: and a half yards. This was one of the first
Speaker 3: prop bets that jumped off the board to me when
Speaker 3: I first started hitting the board last week. There I
Speaker 3: just I really really like this matchup for him. He's
Speaker 3: he's a really smart tight end. Not only is he
Speaker 3: super talented, he's really smart. And as we've mentioned that,
Speaker 3: the Niners play zone and he's gonna be able to
Speaker 3: sit down in those pockets and find that space. And
Speaker 3: then he's just as tough to tackle as anyone in
Speaker 3: the league. He led the team and most people will
Speaker 3: think of Tyreek Hill as is the big threat guy,
Speaker 3: but he actually led the team with twenty plus yard
Speaker 3: receptions this year and he's had four twenty plus yard
Speaker 3: receptions in the playoffs, and I think he's just and
Speaker 3: he's proven that he can do it against these top defenses.
Speaker 3: He's faced five top ten teams in terms of passing
Speaker 3: dv Away, including the Hats who were the top, and
Speaker 3: the average six and a half receptions and seventy yards
Speaker 3: per game, and had a reception of twenty yards for
Speaker 3: more in three of those and one of those games
Speaker 3: that he didn't, Mahomes wasn't the even of his quarterback.
Speaker 3: So he's a very capable guy. And I just think
Speaker 3: down the stretch, the Niners actually did have some trouble
Speaker 3: with tight ends in weeks thirteen, fourteen, and sixteen. They
Speaker 3: faced just like okay tight ends Mark Andrews, Jared Cook,
Speaker 3: Tyler Higbee, and they allowed them to combine for two
Speaker 3: hundred and two hundred and twenty four yards and fourteen receptions.
Speaker 3: That's an average of fifteen point yards yards per catch,
Speaker 3: and all of them had at least one catch at
Speaker 3: twenty plus yards. So if the Chiefs are moving the
Speaker 3: ball at all. I think Kelsey to have a reception
Speaker 3: over twenty half yards is a good bet.
Speaker 1: Okay, yeah, I don't hate that. I definitely don't hate that.
Speaker 1: There are gonna be a lot of big plays, and
Speaker 1: certainly Kelsey is one of the guys to get in
Speaker 1: on it. I'm gonna throw one out here because it
Speaker 1: was the first one I bet when I sort of
Speaker 1: looked at this one, and it's a little creative, and
Speaker 1: it is the number of players to throw a touchdown
Speaker 1: pass and that is over two and a half because
Speaker 1: you have to assume, of course that Garoppolo. Of course,
Speaker 1: this does mean Garoppolo has to throw on so that
Speaker 1: is a little yeah in the end.
Speaker 2: Down.
Speaker 1: But look, these are two of the most creative play
Speaker 1: callers in the game, right with Reid and Shanahan. You
Speaker 1: know they're gonna pull out all the stops. Last game
Speaker 1: of the season, can hold anything back. As we said,
Speaker 1: it's at plus one twenty four. You know you've seen
Speaker 1: Emmanuel Sanders do it, you know before, and he's certainly
Speaker 1: capable of throwing the ball. I just think there's gonna
Speaker 1: be some crazy trick play. It's plus money obviously, so
Speaker 1: the odds are not in its favor, but it is
Speaker 1: something and you know, I like rooting for creativity, you
Speaker 1: know what I mean. It's something where where you can
Speaker 1: definitely see them go or fake punt or something like that.
Speaker 1: So for me, I'm going over two and a half
Speaker 1: touchdown passes at plus one twenty four.
Speaker 2: You're up shown all right, Well man, there's so much.
Speaker 2: There's so many.
Speaker 1: I know you're you're gonna have to narrow it down here.
Speaker 1: I'm gonna how about this. I'll give you, guys two
Speaker 1: more eaches that go okay, why are right? Seven more?
Speaker 1: Do seven more? Do as many as you want? How
Speaker 1: about that? I could be here until I cut you off.
Speaker 2: Here's what I like. And again it kind of goes
Speaker 2: to the game script that I see the game going.
Speaker 2: And in general, it's nice when you can bet props
Speaker 2: where you can see them going, either if the Chiefs
Speaker 2: win or if the forty nine ers win. Right, So,
Speaker 2: I think one of the things the Chiefs are gonna
Speaker 2: do to kind of counterbalance the pass rush is get
Speaker 2: the screen game involved early and often. I think Damian
Speaker 2: Williams is gonna have a big day as far as
Speaker 2: receiving yards right now over at betting pros his line
Speaker 2: is set at twenty nine and a half. I'll take
Speaker 2: the over on that minus one twelve. It just seems
Speaker 2: like that's a great way to offset a crazy pass rush.
Speaker 2: Is the screen game or checking down the receivers? I
Speaker 2: think checking out of the running back. I think Kelsey
Speaker 2: and the running back, you know, Damian Williams. I think
Speaker 2: they're gonna have a lot of kind of easy yards
Speaker 2: underneath because I think the forty nine ers are gonna
Speaker 2: do everything they can to stop, you know, any sort
Speaker 2: of crazy, big play that knocks them out of the game.
Speaker 2: So yeah, I love Damian Williams over receiving yards of
Speaker 2: twenty nine and a half.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I really like that one. Honestly. When I looked
Speaker 1: at this, that's one of the first things I looked
Speaker 1: at too, and I was like, what are his receptions?
Speaker 1: You know, it's four and a half. You know that
Speaker 1: that's a big number, But the fact that it's set
Speaker 1: there shows that obviously there's an expectation that Williams is
Speaker 1: certainly going to be getting a lot of work in
Speaker 1: the passing game. So I certainly don't hate that one,
Speaker 1: all right, Andrew go ahead. I'm not gonna let you
Speaker 1: guys the two more you guys were disappointed. You can
Speaker 1: you got it, just keep going, what do you got.
Speaker 3: I'm gonna speak to Deshawn's idea of the game, the
Speaker 3: way the game is gonna end up. And this is
Speaker 3: when I like, if the game is close, which is
Speaker 3: what I think, And that's Scaroppolo to go over twenty
Speaker 3: nine and a half pass attempts, and I know he
Speaker 3: hasn't done that much lately, and I know there's no
Speaker 3: way that Kyle Shanahan has him throwing the ball thirty
Speaker 3: plus times in his game plan. But those were blowout wins, obviously,
Speaker 3: and when you look deeper into it, he threw thirty
Speaker 3: plus passes seven times in the regular season. Two of
Speaker 3: those came in losses to the Seahawks and Falcons. The
Speaker 3: other five came by wins of four points, thirteen points,
Speaker 3: three points, ten points, and two points. And that ten
Speaker 3: point one was that crazy Cardinals one where they fumbled
Speaker 3: on the last play and I had a terrible, bad
Speaker 3: beat and I screamed a lot of stuff in the TV.
Speaker 3: But either way, it's the point being is that Greppaa
Speaker 3: has clearly thrown the ball in those close games, and
Speaker 3: I think this is going to be a closest game,
Speaker 3: So I'm betting him to go over twenty nine and
Speaker 3: a half pass attempts.
Speaker 1: So I do like that one actually, and I bet
Speaker 1: one that's similar to it and pretty correlated, and that
Speaker 1: is over nineteen and a half completions, right, because I
Speaker 1: think I agree with you completely, and again, they're gonna
Speaker 1: need points, they're gonna need to throw, They're gonna get
Speaker 1: creative here, and you know, if he is going to
Speaker 1: throw that much, I think that he will be able
Speaker 1: to complete nineteen and a half if he's going to
Speaker 1: go over there anyway, So I think they're pretty correlated.
Speaker 1: But I also think for the most part, you know,
Speaker 1: they're not gonna go Shannan is not gonna go crazy.
Speaker 1: They will go deep when they need to go deep.
Speaker 1: He can, he can take their shots. But for the
Speaker 1: most part, I think it's gonna be a lot of,
Speaker 1: you know, high percentage completions, trying to keep the ball
Speaker 1: moving using them play action pass and stuff like that.
Speaker 1: So I'm with you on that one. For me, the
Speaker 1: the in terms of his past attempts and stuff like that,
Speaker 1: I actually slightly prefer the pass completions at over nineteen
Speaker 1: and a half. But yeah, I'm with you sort of
Speaker 1: in that line of thinking.
Speaker 2: All right, Sean, Yes, this is a This is a
Speaker 2: prop bet I play every year since I found out
Speaker 2: about it, maybe like six years ago when we started
Speaker 2: really diving deep into the into the prop bet market here,
Speaker 2: and that is to play both quarterbacks their first passing complete.
Speaker 2: So right now you can take Mahomes plus one sixty
Speaker 2: five first passing complete, Garoppolo plus one ninety five right now,
Speaker 2: first passing complete. I play them blind every year. You
Speaker 2: can usually wait because people will think like, oh, yeah,
Speaker 2: you know they're good, They're gonna give them an easy pass.
Speaker 2: But it's the super Bowl, it's they've been they haven't
Speaker 2: played in two weeks. There's so much pressure. Guys are
Speaker 2: overthinking it. Even in like shootout games, a lot of
Speaker 2: times their first pass will be in complete. They're out
Speaker 2: of sink, they're in a new stadium, weird lighting, the
Speaker 2: whole thing. There's probably still gonna be smoke on the field.
Speaker 2: So there's a lot of reasons, but really it's just
Speaker 2: kind of one of those evy bets where if you
Speaker 2: play both of them, one of them is probably gonna hit.
Speaker 2: There's a chance you could hit both if you're at
Speaker 2: a shot that lets you parlay props, I would I
Speaker 2: would sprinkle a little on that as well. Last year
Speaker 2: both hit both Golf and Brady first passing complete. And
Speaker 2: you have two quarterbacks who've never played in the Super
Speaker 2: Bowl before, so I really like both of them first
Speaker 2: passing complete.
Speaker 1: So I just want to make sure you understand before
Speaker 1: you push that bet, like, that's a bet against Patrick Walmes,
Speaker 1: you know, yeah, I know. I thought we don't do that.
Speaker 1: I thought we don't do that at all.
Speaker 2: Now it's one of the few I have also covered
Speaker 2: in his interception, so if they intercept, it counts as
Speaker 2: as noncomplete as well, so you're covered there.
Speaker 1: Oh thank goodness. And can you imagine that If you're like, yeah,
Speaker 1: it could play past, it's like, oh, well, sorry, it
Speaker 1: was right. I would legitimately just pass out all right after?
Speaker 1: What else you got?
Speaker 3: Okay? One I like a lot is Tyree kill over
Speaker 3: four and a half rushing yards? Like yeah, I love
Speaker 3: his ability and his total. His receiving total at betting
Speaker 3: pros right now is seventy seven and a half. I
Speaker 3: believe for the game, which is crazy for two reasons. One,
Speaker 3: you think he can go that over that in one
Speaker 3: play too, he hasn't gone over seventy two yards in
Speaker 3: each of his last seven games, so it's kind of
Speaker 3: a weird thing. And like, you never know how many
Speaker 3: targets you're He's been very matchup dependent, so like he's
Speaker 3: had nineteen targets in the game this season and then
Speaker 3: other games he's had two, So I never know, really
Speaker 3: what you're gonna get with him. Gee, the Niners are
Speaker 3: going to do a lot of interesting things, I think
Speaker 3: when it comes to defending him. So I like this
Speaker 3: rushing prop. Why is it so low? He has only
Speaker 3: rushed the ball ten times all season for thirty four
Speaker 3: yards with a long of five, so we're looking for
Speaker 3: him to match his long of the season. But my
Speaker 3: thinking here is all he needs is a one right,
Speaker 3: And we've talked about Andy Reid and this is his time,
Speaker 3: and he's a great offensive mind. He is two weeks
Speaker 3: to repair, and he knows his best chance of winning
Speaker 3: is putting the ball in the hands of his most
Speaker 3: talented guys, and that's Hill. And I think he'll just
Speaker 3: cook up just one special play that'll be used at
Speaker 3: the exact right moment, and he's gonna go over that
Speaker 3: four and a half yards on one hole. Hopefully we
Speaker 3: get two rushes, but I'm betting it's only one, and
Speaker 3: I'm still taking the over.
Speaker 1: Have you guys ever seen the movie Little Giants? Of course, yes,
Speaker 1: So what that's making me think of it what this
Speaker 1: whole super Bowl is really making me think of is,
Speaker 1: at one point, you know, the Little Giants are not
Speaker 1: doing so well, and then they go, all right, guys,
Speaker 1: what's the last thing they'd expect us to do? And
Speaker 1: one of like the little kids whose things goes are
Speaker 1: reversed to me, And that's sort of how I feel
Speaker 1: this is gonna be going. I feel like both guys
Speaker 1: are so smart and they have so many plays in
Speaker 1: their thing that they're gonna be like, what's the last
Speaker 1: thing they think they would do? You know, now Tyreek
Speaker 1: Hill doesn't fall into that, but yeah, it's surprising. I
Speaker 1: bet you most people would be like how many rusher
Speaker 1: temps has Tyreek had on the season. They'd be like,
Speaker 1: I don't know, twenty, Like they probably like give it
Speaker 1: to him all the time and stuff like that. It's
Speaker 1: not often and he doesn't. He doesn't go crazy with that.
Speaker 3: So I'm worried that it's that it's I'm watching it
Speaker 3: happen and it turns out to be one of those
Speaker 3: little pop passes that everybody does now and and it'll
Speaker 3: go through. I'm gonna be really sad. So that's that's
Speaker 3: my one hesitation about it. But I still I'm still
Speaker 3: gonna go with the over.
Speaker 1: Oh my gosh, that is absolutely right, the pop pass
Speaker 1: that they love to do, that Brady always does. Mahomes, Oh,
Speaker 1: that's a killer. All right, all right, Sean, go ahead,
Speaker 1: get us back to normalcy.
Speaker 2: Well, all right, I don't know how kind of crazy
Speaker 2: in the little Giant strategy. Who is the last guy
Speaker 2: you expect to get the first touchdown in the Super Bowl.
Speaker 2: He's a goal line tight end. Sure, he only has
Speaker 2: one career touchdown, but I think that means he's due.
Speaker 2: Give me Blake Bell first touchdown at plus fifty five hundred.
Speaker 2: You had a touchdown in the Texans win for the Chiefs.
Speaker 2: And again, I love where you guys are heads are at,
Speaker 2: because it's where my head is at. That Shanahan and Reed.
Speaker 2: They've had two weeks to scheme up all these interesting
Speaker 2: play calls. I could really see him being involved a
Speaker 2: little play actional on the goal line, you know, just
Speaker 2: something right there at the edge he gets in, everyone's
Speaker 2: going to be guarding Kelsey. They won't. No one will
Speaker 2: suspect Blake Bell plus fifty five hundred. It's again a
Speaker 2: huge long shot, but man, I definitely want a little
Speaker 2: action on that.
Speaker 1: I actually love that beat. I think that's a really
Speaker 1: really no no. I think it's a really good bad
Speaker 1: because you could absolutely see them sort of gearing up
Speaker 1: to try to be like, Okay, what are they not
Speaker 1: going to be ready for right now? And just you
Speaker 1: know if they get in close and they have a
Speaker 1: fake and you know, everybody's thinking about Kelsey and stuff
Speaker 1: like that. So yeah, and obviously fifty five hundred, you know,
Speaker 1: it's not like you got to go in there and
Speaker 1: be like, give me a grand I'm Blake Bell to
Speaker 1: you know.
Speaker 2: And just kind of correlated. Which is interesting. If you
Speaker 2: look at the betting pros consensus for him just to
Speaker 2: score a touchdown, it's all the way down at plus
Speaker 2: eight hundred, So that to me, even that seems like
Speaker 2: they think there's an okay chance will score a touchdown,
Speaker 2: but it shoots up to plus fifty five hundred for
Speaker 2: first touchdown. That seems a pretty big disparity.
Speaker 1: Yeah, all right, I like it. How about you Andrew
Speaker 1: go ahead.
Speaker 3: Okay, I'm gonna start sprinkling some MVP props in here,
Speaker 3: because there's a lot I like, Like Edelman won last
Speaker 3: year and he was I actually cash pretty big on
Speaker 3: the Edelman last year, but I went in with the
Speaker 3: mindset this year. Who is the Edelman for the Chiefs.
Speaker 3: It's nobody. I honestly don't think like you look at
Speaker 3: guys like Kelsey and Hill and right now on the
Speaker 3: MVPs on vetting prolls, I think they're around twelve to
Speaker 3: fourteen hundred ish area, and I just don't see them
Speaker 3: having a big game without Mahomes having a bigger game
Speaker 3: and then giving it to Mahomes. The longer shot on
Speaker 3: the Chiefs I like is Nicole Hardman. I think he
Speaker 3: can grab one big catch for a touchdown at one point.
Speaker 3: And if the game is a little lower scoring, and
Speaker 3: we're kind of siding with the under here a bit,
Speaker 3: it's a little lower scoring, maybe Mahomes only throws two
Speaker 3: touchdown passes, and if Harman can return one for a
Speaker 3: touchdown as well. I really like his value there For
Speaker 3: the Niners. The Edelman bet is clearly kittle. He can
Speaker 3: easily have a big game here two touchdowns, but hopefully
Speaker 3: he hasn't scored many touchdowns ers, but he'd probably need
Speaker 3: two touchdowns or maybe one in like one hundred yards
Speaker 3: and several catches sort of things. But I really like
Speaker 3: his value they But the other way to look at
Speaker 3: it is if the Niners win and their defense probably
Speaker 3: had a great game, and then you're looking at guys
Speaker 3: like Bosa. But there's a lot of money coming in
Speaker 3: on Bosa, like his value is starting to leave, which
Speaker 3: is which is really funny. So the other guy I'm
Speaker 3: looking at is is Richard Sherman, and he just needs
Speaker 3: a pick and a couple of impact plays. Maybe there
Speaker 3: isn't a standout guy on the Niners offensive game, maybe
Speaker 3: they do that thing where everything's all even out. Grapple
Speaker 3: only throws like one touchdown and moster gets just one,
Speaker 3: and maybe Sherman gets an interception for a touchdown, or
Speaker 3: maybe he gets a pick and a couple of big deflections.
Speaker 3: I really like his value too. He's at plus eight
Speaker 3: thousand on the betting consensus of the betting betting Bros.
Speaker 3: Consensus right now.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and by the way, and again we you know,
Speaker 1: we talked about it with betting Bros. Consensus, they show
Speaker 1: you a bunch of different lines, so Sherman is actually
Speaker 1: eighty five hundred and Fanning as well, it's not the consensus.
Speaker 1: So that's a big line. Just a things with your points. Hardman. Great,
Speaker 1: it's the great point about the fact if you are
Speaker 1: going to bet an offensive player on the Chiefs other
Speaker 1: than Mahomes, and I'll explain that you should not be
Speaker 1: betting Patrick Mahomes to win MVP, even though he probably will.
Speaker 1: Hardman really is the guy that fits because of the
Speaker 1: fact that he's really the only guy unless David Williams
Speaker 1: is going to start scoring, right because of the fact
Speaker 1: that he returns kicks. What if he returns the opening
Speaker 1: gigoff for a touchdown and then you know he catches
Speaker 1: another one in the game. You never know. With Mahomes,
Speaker 1: the odds are plus one fifteen. I mean, if you're
Speaker 1: gonna do that, just bet on the Chiefs to win
Speaker 1: the game. Like who cares about you know, the MVP,
Speaker 1: Like if you you just bet on the Chiefs to
Speaker 1: win the game at that point. But for me that
Speaker 1: the one that I liked by the way there, which
Speaker 1: you mentioned is also Kittle, who's at plus sixteen hundred
Speaker 1: in the now, there's never been a tight end I
Speaker 1: don't think right that's won the MVP in the Super Bowl,
Speaker 1: I believe. But if the forty nine ers win the game,
Speaker 1: unless it's another one of these raheem Mooster games, and
Speaker 1: again both a defensive player at plus twenty five hundred,
Speaker 1: that's crazy. I mean you know that, that's that's crazy
Speaker 1: a little bit at this point for kel For Kittle,
Speaker 1: he's obviously going to be the guy he needs, as
Speaker 1: you mentioned, to score the touchdown. He needs big yardage.
Speaker 1: You could easily see him just one of those crazy
Speaker 1: runs right that gets on the highlight reel where he's
Speaker 1: just trucking everybody and just refuses to go down if
Speaker 1: he does it. So that's for me, the guy who
Speaker 1: stood out to me as the guy with that I
Speaker 1: liked most at MVP of plus sixteen hun.
Speaker 3: The other thing about Kittle two real quick is that
Speaker 3: if he like lands like one or two really emphatic
Speaker 3: blocks and it gets gets the broadcasters talking about it
Speaker 3: and the fans all sharing. But it's a it's a
Speaker 3: media vote based vote. And if and if he's just
Speaker 3: doing things like that and getting people going crazy, that's
Speaker 3: just gonna be another another thing in his favor there.
Speaker 1: Yeah, no, I agree with that, all right, Sean. So
Speaker 1: we're we're getting a little long here. So here's the deal.
Speaker 1: I'm not going to make you pick one if you
Speaker 1: have more than one, but give give your last few
Speaker 1: that you want to get, and give as many you
Speaker 1: know you can give a few here coming in quick,
Speaker 1: give a few that you like, and then Andrew, I'll
Speaker 1: turn over to you to you know, kind of for
Speaker 1: your last word or however many you want to give.
Speaker 1: But guy, give us any easy want. But Gead, this
Speaker 1: is your time, all right.
Speaker 2: The floor is mine, and I'm gonna use it to
Speaker 2: talk about one that's actually involved with the game directly.
Speaker 2: It's a defensive prop. Daniel Sorensen. Total tackles and tackle
Speaker 2: assists over four and a half minus one twenty. If
Speaker 2: you've watched the forty nine ers, they run the ball
Speaker 2: a ton. They love getting it to that next level.
Speaker 2: I mean, that's the whole Shanahan's scheme. Even if you
Speaker 2: think they're going to be passing a bunch, Kittle is
Speaker 2: a big target. You look at his stats from the
Speaker 2: previous three games, Sorensen, he had five, eight and eight.
Speaker 2: He's really been I mean he almost saved that Texans
Speaker 2: game with all the plays he was making. The guy
Speaker 2: and he's on special teams as well, So this guy
Speaker 2: has a ton of opportunity to make tackles Over four
Speaker 2: and a half feels really easy. It's only minus one twenty,
Speaker 2: so I love that as kind of a normal prop.
Speaker 2: While we're going a little crazy and talking about the broadcast,
Speaker 2: I saw one online Troy Aikman mentions his Super Bowl experience. Yes,
Speaker 2: at minus two fifty, how has Trayke been not going
Speaker 2: to bring up the fact that he's won the Super Bowl?
Speaker 2: Joe Buck's gonna set him up? Well, what is it
Speaker 2: like for when you prepare for the Super Bowl?
Speaker 1: Minus two fifty?
Speaker 2: Yeah, but it's pretty much that's not.
Speaker 1: That's not that's not done correctly. That's like minus seven
Speaker 1: to fifty is the way.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I like it. Yeah, that is that is that
Speaker 2: is not priced correctly. And for my final one, let's
Speaker 2: see the one we haven't really talked about a ton. Okay,
Speaker 2: this is an interesting one that I like. Total number
Speaker 2: of forty nine ers to have a reception. I'm gonna
Speaker 2: go under seven at minus one forty five. I'm on
Speaker 2: the same page with you, guys. I do think the
Speaker 2: forty nine ers will throw the ball more often, but
Speaker 2: even if they do, getting to eight receivers is really tough.
Speaker 2: Like if you go and look through the game, law, yeah,
Speaker 2: they'll get a couple of receivers involved, maybe one of
Speaker 2: the running backs Kittle, but they don't. They just don't
Speaker 2: have the kind of roster where he's going to be
Speaker 2: completing the ball to eight nine different guys. So I
Speaker 2: think you're good at a push the very least. But
Speaker 2: I really like under seven on that one as well.
Speaker 1: Actually I didn't mention that one either, but that is
Speaker 1: definitely one that I like as well. I think that
Speaker 1: that just kind of, you know, again, even though I
Speaker 1: expect kind of, you know, the forty nine ers to
Speaker 1: open up a little bit passing wise and offense, I
Speaker 1: think the number of guys to catch a reception I agree.
Speaker 1: I've already bet that one as well. So that is
Speaker 1: one of the ones that I like a lot. All right,
Speaker 1: Andrew take us out in style? What else do you have?
Speaker 3: Let's just end with something fun. We're going with red
Speaker 3: for the color of gatorade that will be dousing the
Speaker 3: winning coach this year. There's no great analysis behind it.
Speaker 3: Michael Irvin had a little bit of insight. I don't
Speaker 3: know if you can find it on the internet from
Speaker 3: a few years ago. He talked about why red was
Speaker 3: a good one. I've always stuck with it. Red is
Speaker 3: what I'm going with.
Speaker 1: I mean, I can't fault your logic and that and
Speaker 1: that Michael Irban said something one time that made me
Speaker 1: think about it.
Speaker 3: So, yeah, all right, very in depth.
Speaker 2: And Ellis and both teams have read in their jerseys,
Speaker 2: and yes, and the part I really like you, the
Speaker 2: part I really like about read there for the color
Speaker 2: is it's not going to cause an argument afterwards. I'm
Speaker 2: really you know, I don't want to have an argument
Speaker 2: with some online book or even even any sort of
Speaker 2: book or bookie with what what constitutes the color football shade? Yeah, exactly,
Speaker 2: so you avoid that conversation altogether.
Speaker 3: Rumors going around right now that the Chiefs or the
Speaker 3: I think it's the Niners have bought up a bunch
Speaker 3: of purple Gatorade to honor Kobe, which is weird, and yeah,
Speaker 3: I don't know how to feel about it, but that's
Speaker 3: just what the Internet is telling me right now. But
Speaker 3: I still don't I'm not buying it, So we're sticking
Speaker 3: with red.
Speaker 1: I may I may bet that one because it'll be
Speaker 1: great because I'm colorblind, So they'll dump it and I'll
Speaker 1: be like, did I win? Did I win?
Speaker 2: What happened?
Speaker 1: Did I win? But again, at least the good thing
Speaker 1: with that one is it something that's gonna keep you
Speaker 1: engaged the whole game, right because you're like, oh man,
Speaker 1: it's been a terrible night, but I got that Gatorade
Speaker 1: prop got a lot of that, all right, boys, that's
Speaker 1: gonna do it. This was a lot of fun, gave
Speaker 1: a lot of great props. We're rooting for no injuries,
Speaker 1: We're rooting for a long anthem, We're rooting for red Gatorade.
Speaker 1: So there's a lot of good stuff. Reminder that everyone
Speaker 1: can find Sean at the Sports Gambling Podcast and on
Speaker 1: Twitter at Shawn T. Green. You can find Andrew's work
Speaker 1: over at covers dot com and on Twitter at covers Underscore. Kaylee,
Speaker 1: that's c a l e y guys, thanks a lot
Speaker 1: for coming on. Enjoy the Super Bowl. I hope we
Speaker 1: can do it again when the NFL starts up next season.
Speaker 2: Awesome, thanks for having me.
Speaker 1: Thanks again to the sponsor for today's show, bet MGM.
Speaker 1: Remember to download the bet MGM Sports app use the
Speaker 1: promo code Harris. Place a one dollar money line bet
Speaker 1: on either team to win the Super Bowl when two
Speaker 1: hundred dollars in free bets as long as either team
Speaker 1: scores a touchdown in the game. And remember that has
Speaker 1: never not happened, So you're looking good. Don't forget to
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Speaker 1: us a review on Apple Podcasts or sitter sending a
Speaker 1: screenshot of that review to contest at Bettingpros dot com,
Speaker 1: and that contest ends at eleven to fifty nine pm
Speaker 1: on January thirty first, So go ahead and get your
Speaker 1: reviews in. Enjoy the Super Bowl. Everyone, eat wings, eat nachos,
Speaker 1: eat your better bread. Root for a long national anthem.
Speaker 1: So my wife wins her prop bet and Andrew wins
Speaker 1: his prop bet. We'll be back next week with a
Speaker 1: special episode talking about some NFL futures and some oscar wagers.
Speaker 1: I'll catch it in
Speaker 3: Dos