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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast Better Than Most, Better Than Most,

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Speaker 1: Better Than Most.

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Speaker 2: Winner, Trick Down, You Got Real Talent, Concentrate on God.

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Speaker 3: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast presented by Draftkicks.

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Speaker 4: I'm your host, Mike Calbers, and every Wednesday I'm going

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Speaker 4: to be joined by Spencer Agiar and Kyle Murray to

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Speaker 4: dive into the tournament.

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Speaker 5: Of the week.

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Speaker 4: This week we have a special one, The Players Championship

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Speaker 4: Team off at TPC Sawgress on Thursday. It is the

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Speaker 4: unofficial fifth major in the PGA Tour and it's bringing

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Speaker 4: out the stars. Obviously, we have Scotty and Rory headlining field.

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Speaker 4: Last year we saw maximum drama with Rory pulling it

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Speaker 4: out in a playoff over JJ spawn Scotty of course

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Speaker 4: one in twenty twenty three and twenty twenty four.

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Speaker 3: So that'll be a question that we get into right away.

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Speaker 6: Should it be.

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Speaker 3: Those two against the field?

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Speaker 4: Is this the kind of course that will present an

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Speaker 4: opportunity for someone to de throne them?

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Speaker 3: But before we into that, let's just talk about the

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Speaker 3: course broadly.

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Speaker 4: Pete Die's design is strategically demanding in so many different ways.

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Speaker 4: It emphasizes precision overpower. You got narrow landing zones on

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Speaker 4: those fairways, you have dog legs that really prevent bombing

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Speaker 4: it into necessitating layups. You got water everywhere. It's a

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Speaker 4: course that puts pressure on the field to fine tune

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Speaker 4: their approach, to really work through their short game, and

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Speaker 4: it pushes the players that have that in their bag

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Speaker 4: to the front of the class here. So let's start here, Spencer,

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Speaker 4: in terms of this course, does it rule out any

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Speaker 4: golfers in this field for you that otherwise you kind

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Speaker 4: of like you know, over the course of the season,

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Speaker 4: but this particular course not necessarily for them.

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Speaker 1: I mean, at the end of the day, TPC Sawgrass

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Speaker 1: has always been this really challenging course to handicap. Like,

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Speaker 1: you don't have to look any further than this erratic

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Speaker 1: course history of every golfer in the field, you'll start

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Speaker 1: realizing the volatility is heightened at this venue.

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Speaker 5: But the one thing I will.

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Speaker 1: Say, Michael, that kind of will answer this question is

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Speaker 1: with all of that being said, is we've gotten over

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Speaker 1: the last handful of years this move from May to March,

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Speaker 1: and we used to have this unpredictability that would come

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Speaker 1: into play in May, and I think now in March

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Speaker 1: you get a little bit more predictability this course. If

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Speaker 1: you were trying to find the easier returns of it

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Speaker 1: was probably always better suited to be played in these

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Speaker 1: colder weather conditions.

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Speaker 5: Now, from a viewing perspective, I kind of would like

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Speaker 5: to see this.

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Speaker 1: Fiery test that we used to get in May, but

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Speaker 1: I think it's one of the reasons why that this

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Speaker 1: event went from this long shot paradise if you look

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Speaker 1: at it ten fifteen years ago, used to get triple

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Speaker 1: digit winners all the time. You had a name like

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Speaker 1: I know we think of Seawu Kim now as one

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Speaker 1: of the favorites in this tournament, but go back to

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Speaker 1: twenty seventeen. He won this event at five hundred to one.

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Speaker 1: And now all of a sudden you get this iteration

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Speaker 1: of this event where you just talked about Michael. It's

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Speaker 1: Scotty two of the last three years, it's Rory last year.

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Speaker 1: It's all of this cream that has risen to the

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Speaker 1: top of it, and a lot of that comes down

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Speaker 1: to just the summer temperature and May used to give

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Speaker 1: us this Bermuda surface that was still dormant. It was

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Speaker 1: playable from the winter, but it created this ultra fiery

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Speaker 1: test that made stopping your irons on these smaller than

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Speaker 1: average greens nearly impossible. Some of that is still gonna

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Speaker 1: be here with the fast surface, You're gonna get a

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Speaker 1: lot softer.

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Speaker 5: Of a surface during this go around.

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Speaker 1: But more of where I'm going with this answer is

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Speaker 1: if you look at the Bermuda grass here, it gets

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Speaker 1: overseated in this part of the year, so softer landing areas,

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Speaker 1: more shot shaping control with your irons come into play.

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Speaker 1: And for me and Kyle and I were talking about

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Speaker 1: this a little bit off air, there is a reduction

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Speaker 1: that comes into play in my model in strokes gain

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Speaker 1: putting for that reason. So I'm looking for ball strikers.

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Speaker 1: I'm trying to find guys that can find the fairway.

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Speaker 1: It's gonna be very thick rough. I want to find

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Speaker 1: guys that can scramble around the green. And then those

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Speaker 1: proximity ranges that I'm looking at, that's an ultra important

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Speaker 1: stat that I'm trying to find. So if you're diving

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Speaker 1: deep into numbers, and if you're looking for a certain

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Speaker 1: duration of time, like I would get rid of at

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Speaker 1: anything three twenty nineteen, and I would just look at

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Speaker 1: what this venue has been from twenty nineteen on when

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Speaker 1: we've gotten this in March, and I think you're going

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Speaker 1: to see a much different tournament at its core.

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Speaker 4: Wele to bring you in here for a question in

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Speaker 4: terms of a player to win outright, is there more

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Speaker 4: of a brutal stretch to close that out where you're

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Speaker 4: white knuckling it as someone holding potentially a pretty big

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Speaker 4: ticket than sixteen, seventeen and eighteen at this course. Sixteen

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Speaker 4: of course, the risk reward of the par five with

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Speaker 4: the water, seventeenth the island green is always a pressure cooker,

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Speaker 4: and then eighteen of that narrow tee shot with water

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Speaker 4: running up the entire left side. When you think about

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Speaker 4: this course vis a vis all the other ones that

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Speaker 4: these pros are going to go through throughout the course

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Speaker 4: of the season, is this ending stretch the most difficult

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Speaker 4: and potential, you know, to bring the most drama at

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Speaker 4: the end of a round.

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Speaker 6: Yeah? I think.

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Speaker 7: I mean when you compare it to a tour courses

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Speaker 7: across the across the country and what we see played

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Speaker 7: every single week, I think it's tough for me to

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Speaker 7: think of a three hole st especially a closing stretch

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Speaker 7: sixteen seventeen eighteen, like here at Sawgrass. I mean over

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Speaker 7: the last seventeen season, seventeen events prior to this Gutty

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Speaker 7: Scheffler Tournament, we haven't seen a back to back winner

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Speaker 7: or repeat winner in that stretch. I think that goes

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Speaker 7: to show kind of volatility we should expect here at Sawgrass.

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Speaker 6: And when you look at.

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Speaker 7: The shoke stained year over year correlation at this course,

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Speaker 7: it's the lowest correlated course on tour. So I think

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Speaker 7: there's a lot of volatility variants that comes into play,

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Speaker 7: and a lot of that is these last three holes.

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Speaker 7: Obviously it's going to be where we see the pressure

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Speaker 7: cooker situations we saw last year with JJ spawn in

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Speaker 7: the playoffs, so I think that stuff's going to certainly

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Speaker 7: come to fruition here. But yeah, I think it's certainly

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Speaker 7: an exhilarating finish here, but it's not one that you

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Speaker 7: love to have a huge sweat on there when you're

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Speaker 7: relying on players hit the green on seventeen. Obviously there's

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Speaker 7: tons of water and play across the board on all

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Speaker 7: throughout the entire course, but specifically on these last three holes.

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Speaker 6: For sure.

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Speaker 7: I do think that one thing that Spencer alluded to

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Speaker 7: that I did want to kind of double down on.

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Speaker 7: Is the one kind of player I'm just not really

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Speaker 7: looking for here this week is just the guys who

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Speaker 7: strictly rely on putting. Obviously, we're going to have some

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Speaker 7: courses throughout the season that we'll have guys who can

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Speaker 7: come into play based on their elite putting prowess, and it's

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Speaker 7: going to be, you know, those thirty fast type situations.

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Speaker 6: That's not what I'm looking at here.

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Speaker 7: I'm you know, seeing in my model putting grading out

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Speaker 7: as a near zero effect of predictability here for players.

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Speaker 7: So I'm going to be straighting as far away from

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Speaker 7: possible as guys who really rely on that.

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Speaker 6: And that's going to be for me for most weeks

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Speaker 6: for what.

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Speaker 7: It's worth, but this week specifically, it's going to be

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Speaker 7: a ball striking centric model for me.

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Speaker 4: Let's jump into some head to heads and Spencer Europe

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Speaker 4: first here, taking Adam Scott over Justin Rose and Adam

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Speaker 4: Scott you have to go way back in the history books,

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Speaker 4: but he didn't win this one in two thousand and four,

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Speaker 4: and since then he's had multiple top tens throughout his career.

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Speaker 4: I think when you think his you know, ball striking

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Speaker 4: profile and how it relates to Pete Dide courses. He's

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Speaker 4: certainly found lots of success at CPC Sawgrass, but also

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Speaker 4: at Harbordtown Golf Links and then Whistling Straits as well.

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Speaker 4: Is there anything else in terms of this matchup where

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Speaker 4: perhaps you're fading more Justin Rose than necessarily backing and

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Speaker 4: tailing out of Scott.

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Speaker 1: I took a really deep dive into both of these

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Speaker 1: two golfers profiles because if you look at him Scott

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Speaker 1: Michael you talked about it, if you go twenty years ago,

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Speaker 1: he was the staple of consistency at this tournament, and

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Speaker 1: if you go into the more recent term, it's been

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Speaker 1: a little bad across the board of it. So what

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Speaker 1: I wanted to see with Scott's and Rose profiles is

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Speaker 1: how had they been leading into this tournament. And this

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Speaker 1: is not something that I always dive this deep into,

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Speaker 1: but it was one of those things where my model

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Speaker 1: really liked Adam Scott and it was trying to find

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Speaker 1: reasons to take on Justin Rose, and I just wanted

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Speaker 1: to see what does the Rose profile look like in

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Speaker 1: years that he finds success, and what does the Rose

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Speaker 1: profile looks like in years where he doesn't, then if

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Speaker 1: this bet is to lose, I will say this, there

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Speaker 1: is a very ominous return, if we want to call

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Speaker 1: it that within the Rose profile, that's maybe signaling a

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Speaker 1: little bit more strength than my model may be seeing

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Speaker 1: from just an upside perspective. Uh, the lead in form

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Speaker 1: from him is always a chaotic mess. You get miscuts,

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Speaker 1: you get victories, you get everything in between. But if

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Speaker 1: you just look at the five event lead and form

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Speaker 1: that he's bringing into this tournament from ball striking, this

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Speaker 1: is technically one of the better tournaments that we've seen

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Speaker 1: from Rose.

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Speaker 5: That worries me, ever so slightly.

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Speaker 1: A lot of that's coming with the approach game plus

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Speaker 1: two point two to four strokes game with his irons

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Speaker 1: over the last five his total ball striking profile is

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Speaker 1: plus one point four to two. So obviously, if you

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Speaker 1: just take those two numbers subtract it, that must mean

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Speaker 1: that the off the t stuff is losing for him.

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Speaker 1: Negative zero point eight two is what you're looking at

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Speaker 1: with the driver there. It's interesting with the profile of

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Speaker 1: Rose because every return over the last five years for

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Speaker 1: him has had him somewhere between zero point four to

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Speaker 1: two to zero point five to five of a loss

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Speaker 1: off the te so a little bit less than a

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Speaker 1: half stroke of what we're getting this week of worst

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Speaker 1: of Rose off the tee. I think what spooked me

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Speaker 1: a little bit more with the profile though, before we

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Speaker 1: even get into any of the Adams Scott stuff, is

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Speaker 1: any of those short game metrics that you may like

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Speaker 1: with Justin Rose have just not been there recently. Like

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Speaker 1: I know Kyle and I have both talked over and

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Speaker 1: over again about that we are not highlighting putters and

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Speaker 1: we're not trying to find guys that get hot with

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Speaker 1: the putter. But if you have a profile where you

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Speaker 1: are one dimensional right now with your approach game, you're

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Speaker 1: off the t stuff looks bad. And then you have

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Speaker 1: this negative one point two output over the last handful

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Speaker 1: of events that we're looking at here with that short game, Like,

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Speaker 1: it's this really scary profile to me where Rose is

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Speaker 1: a boom or bust candidate to where there is a

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Speaker 1: ceiling output that we look on Sunday and he put

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Speaker 1: the pieces together with the irons and he ends up

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Speaker 1: coming top ten. But I also think that there is

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Speaker 1: a downside here and in matchups that is something that

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Speaker 1: you always should be trying to highlight and for me,

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Speaker 1: even if we find that upside with the Justin Rose profile,

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Speaker 1: Adam Scott right now is bringing the best form into

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Speaker 1: this tournament that we've seen in just years. He's gained

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Speaker 1: four point zero eight strokes ball striking per event over

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Speaker 1: the last five tournaments. The short game for him has

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Speaker 1: been positive nearly across the board, and if you compare

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Speaker 1: these two players, Scott's been about three point five shots

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Speaker 1: better to start this year than Rose.

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Speaker 5: From all tournaments.

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Speaker 1: We're looking at about two point six six better with

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Speaker 1: the ball striking. So I think if this does go

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Speaker 1: a misscut for Rose, we're in a really good spot.

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Speaker 1: And if Rose does play a little bit better and

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Speaker 1: does reach that upside quota within my model, I think

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Speaker 1: Adam Scott here is really primed for a big result

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Speaker 1: this week.

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Speaker 4: Kyle, you're going with a double dip here. Let's start

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Speaker 4: with your first head to head and it's Shane Lowry

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Speaker 4: over Jordan Speith, and you don't have to really get

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Speaker 4: too deep into it to fade Speth. I mean the

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Speaker 4: volatility off the sea. There's so much water on this course.

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Speaker 4: You know, he could probably put together a brilliant eighteen

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Speaker 4: thirty six hole run, but then you're always just waiting

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Speaker 4: for the other shoot to drop with Jordan. But talk

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Speaker 4: me through Lowry and why in particular you think he's

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Speaker 4: a good fit here at TBC.

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Speaker 6: Yeah.

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Speaker 7: I came on the show last week and kind of

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Speaker 7: talked about, you know, the safety of Shane Lowry versus Minrulee,

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Speaker 7: who I think was a more volatile golfer, and that

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Speaker 7: did not turn out well for me last week.

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Speaker 6: Lowry missed the cut to Lee. I think was T

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Speaker 6: six last week.

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Speaker 7: But bottom line, I think looking at Shane Lowry's recent

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Speaker 7: events and what we've seen him put on paper, dating

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Speaker 7: all the way back to really the Masters last season,

256
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Speaker 7: he just has not had a week that bad on

257
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Speaker 7: approach dating back to prior to the Masters of last season,

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Speaker 7: so April of twenty twenty five, looking at events, you know,

259
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Speaker 7: obviously some tournaments there on the DP World Tour, but

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Speaker 7: last week was the first time he lost strokes in

261
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Speaker 7: a professional event dating back to August tenth, twenty twenty five,

262
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Speaker 7: at the Saint Jude where he lost point one strokes

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Speaker 7: on approach, and prior to that it was the RBC

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Speaker 7: Heritage All the way back in April of last year,

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Speaker 7: so he was just such a consistent approach player. I

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Speaker 7: think last week we just got an outlier poor week

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Speaker 7: on approach for Shane Lowry. And I do think that

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Speaker 7: there's also going to be you know, the benefit of

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Speaker 7: his around the game play, potentially spying a little bit

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Speaker 7: as we've seen the last couple of weeks as well,

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Speaker 7: So it's going to be beneficial for him. And then

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Speaker 7: obviously it's also a bit of a fade here on speed.

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Speaker 7: Like you mentioned, there's just a lot of volatility in

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Speaker 7: the speed profile, and when looking at what he's been

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Speaker 7: able to accomplish in terms of you know, his end

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Speaker 7: results as of play, it's been pretty good, right T

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Speaker 7: twenty four, he missed the cut top twenty nine, T twelve,

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Speaker 7: and then T eleven last week at the API, so

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Speaker 7: he's had you know, four out of his last five

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Speaker 7: starts inside the top thirty.

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Speaker 6: Those are pretty consistent finishes.

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Speaker 7: But the strokes gain profile does not back those kinds

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Speaker 7: of results, of sort of fading that there, and again

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Speaker 7: he does fit the profile of somebody who has you know,

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Speaker 7: really benefited from his putting, right, that's the main portion

286
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Speaker 7: of his game that is excelling right now. He's thirteenth

287
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Speaker 7: in my model this week in putting over the last

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Speaker 7: am I blended strokes gaining model, and then outside of

289
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Speaker 7: that he's outside of the top thirty and every other

290
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Speaker 7: strokes gained category. So it is, you know, something to

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Speaker 7: look at with Lowry.

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Speaker 6: And his instancy.

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Speaker 7: And obviously I do think that we are getting a

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Speaker 7: little bit of a discount due to an outlier week

295
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Speaker 7: in my opinion last week, but also it is quite

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Speaker 7: a bit of a fade here on George Feeth in

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Speaker 7: this matchup.

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Speaker 4: Now, looking at your overall card, you're pretty bullish on Substraca.

299
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Speaker 4: You already took him earlier in the week against Koepka.

300
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Speaker 4: Boat speaks specifically in his head to head with foul

301
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Speaker 4: or now. Straka has elite approach play, which we all know.

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Speaker 4: He's a controlled, accurate driver as well. I think kind

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Speaker 4: of an underrated factor. We don't know exactly what the

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Speaker 4: wind's going to be, but historically he's performed well, you know,

305
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Speaker 4: played University of Georgia has a reputation to someone who

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Speaker 4: can cut the ball through the wins. Talk with me

307
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Speaker 4: through a little bit more of what Straka brings and

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Speaker 4: why he popped off the pagtree this week.

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Speaker 7: Yeah, I do think that, you know, Straka is the

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Speaker 7: guy who grades out in the top ten am I

311
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Speaker 7: model this week for a lot of the things that

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Speaker 7: you just suggested. Obviously, his T degreen play has been

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Speaker 7: amongst the top ten in this field over the am

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Speaker 7: I Blended model, and especially as of as of late

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Speaker 7: in the last twenty four rounds, he's eighth in stropskin

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Speaker 7: ted degree and so the T green play has been fantastic.

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Speaker 7: But I do think that there's going to be you know,

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Speaker 7: quite an important pettigre to just targeting these precise players

319
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Speaker 7: off the T who can also translate to elite iron

320
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Speaker 7: play and strata. Has been just that he's been accurate

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Speaker 7: off the T's been top ten on approach in my

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Speaker 7: weighted model and also over the last twenty four rounds

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Speaker 7: ranked six in this model in strokes skin approach. Ricky

324
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Speaker 7: Fowler is a scary player at FADE. I will say

325
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Speaker 7: he's not my I was looking for potentially some other

326
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Speaker 7: options there against Draca, but bottom line is followered. Does

327
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Speaker 7: also fit the profile of somebody who has gotten a

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Speaker 7: lot of his you know, his strong success rates from

329
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Speaker 7: his putting, and that's something that I am looking to

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Speaker 7: fade here this week. He's certainly somebody who can burn

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Speaker 7: you with the putter, and he has been a fairly consistent.

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Speaker 6: Producer in terms of end results. The approach play has

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Speaker 6: been fine.

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Speaker 7: He's twenty second over the last twenty four rounds in

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00:14:46,920 --> 00:14:49,280
Speaker 7: strokes gain approach TD green play has been fine, but

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Speaker 7: again he's just been excelling with the putter. That's something

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Speaker 7: that I'm looking to fade here. I think there's really

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Speaker 7: no brick to value in strokes skin putting, and a

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Speaker 7: lot of these putting metrics, even on very niche things

340
00:14:59,840 --> 00:15:04,520
Speaker 7: like surface here on Bermuda, no different sort of distances

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Speaker 7: for potting. I just didn't see a lot of predictive

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Speaker 7: value and many putting metrics this week. So guys who

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Speaker 7: are getting a lot of their production done through that

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Speaker 7: are gonna be guys that don't grate out that great

345
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Speaker 7: in my model this week. And unfortunately, Ricky Foller is

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Speaker 7: one of those guys who I don't love to fade here,

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Speaker 7: but I do give a pretty significant extra straca this week.

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Speaker 6: The crown is yours.

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Speaker 4: All right, gentlemen, let's get into some placement wagers. Let's

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Speaker 4: start with Max McGreevy Spencer in terms of where you

382
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Speaker 4: want to target here. Obviously you don't have him outright,

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Speaker 4: but he's one of those guys who is not going

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Speaker 4: to beat himself. He's not going to have those blow

385
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Speaker 4: up polls.

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Speaker 6: You know.

387
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Speaker 4: The kind of mentality I would imagine from a wager

388
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Speaker 4: like this is you're looking for chaos around him and

389
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Speaker 4: for him to just say stay steady and stay what

390
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Speaker 4: in the top twenty, top ten?

391
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Speaker 3: Where you thinking about his range here?

392
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Speaker 5: So last year I laddered McGreevy up.

393
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Speaker 1: I had him five hundred to one to win this tournament,

394
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Speaker 1: and I laddered him all the way up to a

395
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Speaker 1: top forty wager. And I was telling Kyle before we

396
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Speaker 1: came on air, it was one of the worst Sundays

397
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Speaker 1: that I can ever recall. He entered that round either

398
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Speaker 1: within the top five or the top ten. And you

399
00:17:26,520 --> 00:17:28,760
Speaker 1: talked about Michael like he doesn't have a lot of

400
00:17:28,800 --> 00:17:31,800
Speaker 1: those blow up potential holes. And I don't know what

401
00:17:32,000 --> 00:17:34,320
Speaker 1: he did on the back nine. He had already kind

402
00:17:34,320 --> 00:17:36,520
Speaker 1: of had a shaky round to begin with. He was

403
00:17:36,560 --> 00:17:40,000
Speaker 1: fifty one yards out on his second shot. He airmails

404
00:17:40,040 --> 00:17:44,399
Speaker 1: the green. There's water behind the green. He airmails the water.

405
00:17:44,960 --> 00:17:47,760
Speaker 1: She's behind some tree. He tries to chip it out,

406
00:17:47,880 --> 00:17:50,240
Speaker 1: almost dunks it in the water. Now he's still short

407
00:17:50,280 --> 00:17:52,520
Speaker 1: of the green. He takes that shot and goes back

408
00:17:52,560 --> 00:17:54,280
Speaker 1: into the bunker that he was in to begin with,

409
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Speaker 1: and he makes a mess of this, ends up losing

410
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Speaker 1: the top five, ends up losing the top ten, ends

411
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Speaker 1: up chopping the top twenty, and I ended up getting

412
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Speaker 1: there with the top thirty in the top forty. But honestly,

413
00:18:04,880 --> 00:18:06,480
Speaker 1: I think that you can kind of play this in

414
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Speaker 1: a lot of different iterations this go around, Like for me,

415
00:18:09,080 --> 00:18:12,200
Speaker 1: my preferred route would probably be a top twenty. There

416
00:18:12,200 --> 00:18:14,640
Speaker 1: are some upside metrics with him that really like him

417
00:18:14,640 --> 00:18:16,480
Speaker 1: in my model this week to push it a little

418
00:18:16,480 --> 00:18:20,360
Speaker 1: bit higher up number one player for me at courses

419
00:18:20,400 --> 00:18:22,399
Speaker 1: that are similar that feature a lot of water off

420
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Speaker 1: the tea, so inaccurate golfer that's not going to make

421
00:18:24,600 --> 00:18:27,399
Speaker 1: the mistake there. Same profile comes into play with a

422
00:18:27,400 --> 00:18:29,680
Speaker 1: lot of the approach stuff inside of the top twenty five.

423
00:18:29,760 --> 00:18:32,680
Speaker 1: There good win player, a player that kind of has

424
00:18:32,720 --> 00:18:34,879
Speaker 1: the potential to work himself up the leaderboard in a

425
00:18:34,920 --> 00:18:37,240
Speaker 1: lot of different ways and then hold himself there hopefully.

426
00:18:37,359 --> 00:18:40,840
Speaker 1: So I'm fine laddering this in a lot of different ways.

427
00:18:41,280 --> 00:18:43,119
Speaker 1: I bet him out right at two hundred and fifty

428
00:18:43,119 --> 00:18:44,600
Speaker 1: to one, and I'm going to take a very cheap

429
00:18:44,640 --> 00:18:47,040
Speaker 1: shot there. I think the top twenty would be my

430
00:18:47,119 --> 00:18:50,320
Speaker 1: preferred route, but I really don't have any pushback if

431
00:18:50,320 --> 00:18:53,159
Speaker 1: anybody wants to play him in any range really between

432
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Speaker 1: a top five to a top forty.

433
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Speaker 4: Kyle, let's talk Patrick Can'tley, you know an elite player

434
00:18:58,320 --> 00:19:00,440
Speaker 4: at least from a mid iron perspect if you look

435
00:19:00,480 --> 00:19:03,320
Speaker 4: him at top twenty plus two seventy right now in

436
00:19:03,359 --> 00:19:05,080
Speaker 4: the market, as always go around, shop around for the

437
00:19:05,080 --> 00:19:05,840
Speaker 4: best number there.

438
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Speaker 3: What's your cutoff for him at you know, at top twenty?

439
00:19:08,520 --> 00:19:09,320
Speaker 3: Is it five to two?

440
00:19:09,720 --> 00:19:11,280
Speaker 4: Is it right where it is right now at plus

441
00:19:11,280 --> 00:19:13,840
Speaker 4: two seventy, and what do you think the absolute ceiling

442
00:19:13,880 --> 00:19:15,480
Speaker 4: is if everything clicks for him this week?

443
00:19:15,760 --> 00:19:16,800
Speaker 6: Yeah, I'm not gonna lie.

444
00:19:16,800 --> 00:19:19,920
Speaker 7: I don't know last time I bet on Patrick Cantlay here,

445
00:19:20,720 --> 00:19:22,720
Speaker 7: but you know I do like him. Marie grades out

446
00:19:22,720 --> 00:19:25,399
Speaker 7: as a strong value on the top twenty market in

447
00:19:25,440 --> 00:19:27,400
Speaker 7: my model plus two seventy, I think I would probably

448
00:19:27,440 --> 00:19:31,359
Speaker 7: bet him down to about plus two thirty plus two

449
00:19:31,359 --> 00:19:33,119
Speaker 7: twenty five or so. I think you can made a

450
00:19:33,160 --> 00:19:35,119
Speaker 7: case for it at at plus two hundred, but I

451
00:19:35,119 --> 00:19:37,400
Speaker 7: think where you continue to get some some solid value

452
00:19:37,440 --> 00:19:39,600
Speaker 7: plus two twenty five, I would probably be I cut

453
00:19:39,640 --> 00:19:43,000
Speaker 7: off there. You Cantlay has been fairly hit or miss

454
00:19:43,040 --> 00:19:43,680
Speaker 7: at times.

455
00:19:43,880 --> 00:19:44,200
Speaker 6: Obviously.

456
00:19:44,240 --> 00:19:46,600
Speaker 7: We've seen a couple of really bad performances last week,

457
00:19:46,600 --> 00:19:48,720
Speaker 7: missed the cut, the API, missed the cut the Farmers.

458
00:19:49,000 --> 00:19:51,040
Speaker 7: We've also see some spike weeks in that stretch as well.

459
00:19:51,040 --> 00:19:53,960
Speaker 7: T thirteen at the MX T fourteen at Pebble Beach,

460
00:19:54,000 --> 00:19:56,520
Speaker 7: and I think a lot of that volatility is obviously

461
00:19:56,560 --> 00:19:58,920
Speaker 7: scary here, especially at Sawgrass, But I do think that

462
00:19:58,960 --> 00:20:01,640
Speaker 7: he is somebody wh if fits well here. He's someone

463
00:20:01,640 --> 00:20:04,639
Speaker 7: who can certainly, you know, float to the top of

464
00:20:04,920 --> 00:20:07,879
Speaker 7: you know, the driving accuracy metrics across the board. He

465
00:20:07,920 --> 00:20:10,800
Speaker 7: has some strong putting performances at times, some of that

466
00:20:10,880 --> 00:20:13,919
Speaker 7: strong putting spike plays at times, which again that's not

467
00:20:13,960 --> 00:20:16,280
Speaker 7: something that I'm looking for this week, someone who puts

468
00:20:16,280 --> 00:20:18,639
Speaker 7: out you know, necessarily consistent putting. But I'm looking for

469
00:20:18,640 --> 00:20:20,040
Speaker 7: guys who at least have the ability to go out

470
00:20:20,040 --> 00:20:22,639
Speaker 7: there and have those spike putting weeks at times, because

471
00:20:22,920 --> 00:20:24,040
Speaker 7: you know, we are going to see some of that

472
00:20:24,359 --> 00:20:27,280
Speaker 7: here and here and there throughout the four rounds here.

473
00:20:27,280 --> 00:20:30,440
Speaker 7: But in my blended Strokes Gain model fifteenth and t

474
00:20:30,600 --> 00:20:33,560
Speaker 7: degree play Top twenty, in terms of strop skin approach

475
00:20:33,560 --> 00:20:35,800
Speaker 7: to a lot of those ball striking metrics are kind

476
00:20:35,800 --> 00:20:37,879
Speaker 7: of floating him to the top of some of these

477
00:20:37,960 --> 00:20:39,639
Speaker 7: numbers here in my model, I grate him as the

478
00:20:39,680 --> 00:20:43,280
Speaker 7: thirteenth best player in the model for this course. So

479
00:20:43,400 --> 00:20:45,919
Speaker 7: I do see some pretty significant value on the top twenty.

480
00:20:46,960 --> 00:20:48,720
Speaker 4: I don't want to skip over Shane Lowry, but you

481
00:20:48,760 --> 00:20:50,920
Speaker 4: already mentioned kind of, you know the fundamentals of why

482
00:20:50,920 --> 00:20:53,439
Speaker 4: you like Tom over Speed, he's plus two fifty to

483
00:20:53,480 --> 00:20:56,240
Speaker 4: make the top twenty. Let's talk about Jacob Bridgeman for

484
00:20:56,280 --> 00:20:58,800
Speaker 4: a moment, because obviously he came onto the map winning

485
00:20:58,840 --> 00:21:02,680
Speaker 4: the Genesis in Vitational earlier this season. Do you think

486
00:21:02,680 --> 00:21:04,200
Speaker 4: that kind of momentum is going to give him the

487
00:21:04,240 --> 00:21:06,520
Speaker 4: confidence to hang with the big boys here at the

488
00:21:06,600 --> 00:21:08,360
Speaker 4: unofficial fifth Major of the PGA Tour.

489
00:21:08,960 --> 00:21:10,359
Speaker 7: Yeah, this is where I'm gonna have to kind of

490
00:21:10,359 --> 00:21:12,320
Speaker 7: defend some of the stuff that I've talked about previously,

491
00:21:12,359 --> 00:21:14,399
Speaker 7: because you know, if someone goes in and looks at

492
00:21:14,400 --> 00:21:17,399
Speaker 7: Bridgman's stats and kind of where he's really excelled, it

493
00:21:17,480 --> 00:21:20,440
Speaker 7: is putting. He's the best putter in my strokes gain

494
00:21:21,160 --> 00:21:23,840
Speaker 7: blended model, So obviously that's going to be something that

495
00:21:24,240 --> 00:21:27,840
Speaker 7: correlates with these top end finishes right the obviously the

496
00:21:27,840 --> 00:21:30,200
Speaker 7: win Genesis t at a Pebble Beach, We're going to

497
00:21:30,240 --> 00:21:33,520
Speaker 7: see guys, especially who have smaller samples like Bridgeman, sort

498
00:21:33,560 --> 00:21:35,200
Speaker 7: of float to the top in terms of their strokes

499
00:21:35,240 --> 00:21:37,440
Speaker 7: gain putting when you don't have a ton of data there.

500
00:21:37,480 --> 00:21:40,560
Speaker 7: But looking throughout the board TD Green Play, he's thirty

501
00:21:40,600 --> 00:21:43,439
Speaker 7: sixth in the blended model fourteenth in approach though, so

502
00:21:43,600 --> 00:21:46,160
Speaker 7: I do think that he isn't necessarily the perfect fit

503
00:21:46,240 --> 00:21:48,760
Speaker 7: for me in terms of off the tee play for

504
00:21:48,800 --> 00:21:51,240
Speaker 7: this course. He is a guy who obviously has the distance,

505
00:21:51,280 --> 00:21:54,000
Speaker 7: but not necessarily an immense amount of accuracy. So that's

506
00:21:54,000 --> 00:21:55,960
Speaker 7: why I'm only looking at him here in the top

507
00:21:56,000 --> 00:21:59,640
Speaker 7: twenty rather than in the outright market, which he does

508
00:21:59,720 --> 00:22:02,600
Speaker 7: show some value in my model in the outright market,

509
00:22:02,640 --> 00:22:04,040
Speaker 7: but I think there's a couple of guys who I

510
00:22:04,119 --> 00:22:05,840
Speaker 7: like to target a bit more, so that's why I'm

511
00:22:05,840 --> 00:22:08,520
Speaker 7: sticking to the top twenty. But obviously we've seen the

512
00:22:08,560 --> 00:22:11,400
Speaker 7: Spike Weeks four Bridgeman at times. He played this course

513
00:22:11,480 --> 00:22:14,440
Speaker 7: once over the past, obviously in his career, but last

514
00:22:14,520 --> 00:22:17,399
Speaker 7: year he got some experience at Sawgrass, so thinking that

515
00:22:17,400 --> 00:22:19,359
Speaker 7: that will also help to have that under his belt.

516
00:22:19,400 --> 00:22:21,919
Speaker 7: But again just kind of you know, doubling down on

517
00:22:21,920 --> 00:22:23,920
Speaker 7: some of these approach numbers and the t degree numbers,

518
00:22:23,920 --> 00:22:26,879
Speaker 7: which again are small sample size, But I do think

519
00:22:26,920 --> 00:22:29,159
Speaker 7: that over the last you know, twenty four rounds or so,

520
00:22:29,440 --> 00:22:31,600
Speaker 7: top ten and Shirkskin approach is going to be someone

521
00:22:31,640 --> 00:22:33,119
Speaker 7: that I'm going to have some interesting and I do

522
00:22:33,160 --> 00:22:36,400
Speaker 7: think that there's still some value here in this plus

523
00:22:36,480 --> 00:22:38,920
Speaker 7: two fifty for the top twenty just way obviously him

524
00:22:38,920 --> 00:22:40,640
Speaker 7: having a lot of success recently.

525
00:22:40,640 --> 00:22:41,840
Speaker 3: Let's tuck outrights here.

526
00:22:42,240 --> 00:22:45,040
Speaker 4: Seawoo Kim has already been mentioned, and Spencer you like

527
00:22:45,119 --> 00:22:47,560
Speaker 4: him twenty won in twenty seventeen. He was the youngest

528
00:22:47,600 --> 00:22:50,919
Speaker 4: to ever win this event. The range of outcomes, I

529
00:22:50,920 --> 00:22:54,040
Speaker 4: feel like if somebody offered me either win or get cut,

530
00:22:54,119 --> 00:22:56,439
Speaker 4: Seawoo Kim maybe at the top of my list, because

531
00:22:56,600 --> 00:22:58,760
Speaker 4: he can put his way into or out of this

532
00:22:58,840 --> 00:23:01,640
Speaker 4: tournament really at any three or four hole stretch.

533
00:23:02,200 --> 00:23:04,399
Speaker 3: Beyond that, what else do you think needs to be

534
00:23:04,480 --> 00:23:06,600
Speaker 3: mentioned when you talk Kim in this tournament?

535
00:23:07,440 --> 00:23:08,919
Speaker 1: I mean, I think you kind of set it from

536
00:23:08,960 --> 00:23:12,480
Speaker 1: an outright wager in particular, like if you're trying to

537
00:23:12,560 --> 00:23:15,160
Speaker 1: land the winner, you're not trying to find the guy

538
00:23:15,200 --> 00:23:17,399
Speaker 1: that's gonna come in eleventh place. You're trying to shoot

539
00:23:17,400 --> 00:23:19,879
Speaker 1: for upside. And I think that's why Kyle and I

540
00:23:19,960 --> 00:23:22,639
Speaker 1: both when we build our models, like as I've started

541
00:23:22,640 --> 00:23:23,960
Speaker 1: to talk to him more, I know that this is

542
00:23:24,000 --> 00:23:27,400
Speaker 1: what he incorporates into his Also, like we like ball strikers,

543
00:23:27,400 --> 00:23:29,159
Speaker 1: we like guys that can spike with the putter, and

544
00:23:29,240 --> 00:23:31,560
Speaker 1: unfortunately see who doesn't seem to do much of the spiking.

545
00:23:31,600 --> 00:23:33,320
Speaker 1: It's just a lot of the negative with it. But

546
00:23:33,920 --> 00:23:36,639
Speaker 1: I got this at forty to one when it opened

547
00:23:36,680 --> 00:23:40,320
Speaker 1: on Monday, and this number has been completely slashed in half.

548
00:23:40,560 --> 00:23:42,280
Speaker 1: Like there are twenties in the space. I do think

549
00:23:42,280 --> 00:23:45,280
Speaker 1: the best price is at twenty four to one on DraftKings.

550
00:23:46,200 --> 00:23:48,760
Speaker 1: That is a price that I still think has value

551
00:23:49,160 --> 00:23:50,399
Speaker 1: at that particular total.

552
00:23:50,440 --> 00:23:52,720
Speaker 5: But at the end of the day, there's a much different.

553
00:23:52,480 --> 00:23:54,840
Speaker 1: Range of outcomes at forty to one versus some of

554
00:23:54,880 --> 00:23:56,800
Speaker 1: the eighteens that you might find in this space. So

555
00:23:57,119 --> 00:24:00,080
Speaker 1: obviously shop around the better you can get the best,

556
00:24:00,160 --> 00:24:03,600
Speaker 1: or that this bet becomes but forty three shots to

557
00:24:03,640 --> 00:24:05,720
Speaker 1: the field that he has gained over his last seven

558
00:24:05,800 --> 00:24:07,160
Speaker 1: starts ball striking.

559
00:24:07,680 --> 00:24:11,480
Speaker 5: It is this high upside, high ceiling. Try to be.

560
00:24:11,560 --> 00:24:13,280
Speaker 1: Neutral with the putter and if you can put the

561
00:24:13,280 --> 00:24:16,879
Speaker 1: pieces together, you have the chance with a profile like

562
00:24:16,960 --> 00:24:19,119
Speaker 1: his to actually do that. One of the things that

563
00:24:19,160 --> 00:24:21,040
Speaker 1: I ran this week, and I think and I'll talk

564
00:24:21,040 --> 00:24:23,520
Speaker 1: about at the end, there are a lot of names

565
00:24:23,560 --> 00:24:27,119
Speaker 1: that Kyle and I have that overlap. One of the

566
00:24:27,160 --> 00:24:29,200
Speaker 1: things that I tried to look for is I took

567
00:24:29,200 --> 00:24:32,440
Speaker 1: a portion of my model, it removed putting all together

568
00:24:32,480 --> 00:24:34,800
Speaker 1: from it, and it just looked at four categories, put

569
00:24:34,840 --> 00:24:36,960
Speaker 1: a threshold return to remove every name that didn't fit

570
00:24:37,000 --> 00:24:40,080
Speaker 1: into the top twenty of the singular parts of these builds.

571
00:24:40,160 --> 00:24:44,240
Speaker 1: So that's expected proximity for Sawgrass. That's weighted driving for

572
00:24:44,320 --> 00:24:46,120
Speaker 1: the week. So those are two stats that are completely

573
00:24:46,119 --> 00:24:49,199
Speaker 1: towards this course. It is weighted scoring and it has

574
00:24:49,240 --> 00:24:52,080
Speaker 1: weighted strokes gain total. So at the end of the day,

575
00:24:52,200 --> 00:24:53,960
Speaker 1: how are you projected to do with a lot of

576
00:24:53,960 --> 00:24:56,359
Speaker 1: your ball striking metrics for this course that we have

577
00:24:56,480 --> 00:24:59,840
Speaker 1: on hand. There were four golfers that landed inside of

578
00:25:00,080 --> 00:25:03,040
Speaker 1: the top twenty of each. One of those areas Seewu,

579
00:25:03,119 --> 00:25:09,359
Speaker 1: Kim Ludvig Oberg, Colin Morikawa, Sepstraka. I would not be

580
00:25:09,400 --> 00:25:11,560
Speaker 1: shocked if the winner ends up landing with one of

581
00:25:11,560 --> 00:25:13,840
Speaker 1: those names. It's kind of where my outright card has

582
00:25:13,840 --> 00:25:17,520
Speaker 1: been built to begin with. I personally like Seewu the

583
00:25:17,520 --> 00:25:19,440
Speaker 1: best at the number that I got him at at

584
00:25:19,480 --> 00:25:21,760
Speaker 1: forty to one. It's a different bet at the end

585
00:25:21,800 --> 00:25:23,840
Speaker 1: of the day if you're trying to compare these twenties

586
00:25:23,880 --> 00:25:26,399
Speaker 1: to the Colin Morikawa's twenties that are out there, But

587
00:25:28,480 --> 00:25:30,320
Speaker 1: I think this is a spot for seawou where at

588
00:25:30,359 --> 00:25:31,600
Speaker 1: the end of the day, I'm just shooting on the

589
00:25:32,000 --> 00:25:34,679
Speaker 1: shooting and banking on hopefully getting that upside.

590
00:25:35,040 --> 00:25:37,959
Speaker 4: You just mentioned Kluin Marikawa, Kyle, you like him at

591
00:25:37,960 --> 00:25:40,600
Speaker 4: twenty to one. He shook off the rust, broke out

592
00:25:40,600 --> 00:25:42,320
Speaker 4: of that drought as about two and a half years

593
00:25:42,320 --> 00:25:44,639
Speaker 4: between wins on the PGA Tour, he wins at Pebble.

594
00:25:45,119 --> 00:25:47,320
Speaker 4: You can make a strong argument when he's playing his

595
00:25:47,359 --> 00:25:49,639
Speaker 4: best golf, he's the best iron player in the world,

596
00:25:49,840 --> 00:25:52,800
Speaker 4: which certainly lends itself to this course. Anything else you'd

597
00:25:52,800 --> 00:25:54,840
Speaker 4: bring to the table with Colin at this price point.

598
00:25:55,440 --> 00:25:56,840
Speaker 7: Yeah, I mean, I think you can also argue that

599
00:25:56,880 --> 00:25:58,399
Speaker 7: even when he's not at his best, he's one of

600
00:25:58,440 --> 00:26:01,680
Speaker 7: the premiere iron players in the world. I mean, we saw,

601
00:26:01,880 --> 00:26:03,560
Speaker 7: you know, even in that twenty twenty four and some

602
00:26:03,640 --> 00:26:05,560
Speaker 7: of the twenty twenty five season where he just didn't

603
00:26:05,640 --> 00:26:08,120
Speaker 7: quite have it from what we saw from in the past,

604
00:26:08,160 --> 00:26:10,840
Speaker 7: and he was still, you know, looking really really strong

605
00:26:10,920 --> 00:26:13,479
Speaker 7: on paper in the approach category. But yeah, you're absolutely

606
00:26:13,520 --> 00:26:15,520
Speaker 7: right when he's dialed in, when he has you know,

607
00:26:15,800 --> 00:26:17,879
Speaker 7: he's clicking on all cylinders. There's not many guys that

608
00:26:17,920 --> 00:26:20,000
Speaker 7: you're going to be taking from a pure stroke skin

609
00:26:20,080 --> 00:26:23,639
Speaker 7: approach or approach play candidate other than Kalam Marakawa, And

610
00:26:23,680 --> 00:26:26,480
Speaker 7: obviously that's going to generate a lot of buzz for

611
00:26:26,560 --> 00:26:28,960
Speaker 7: him in my model where that is such a strong

612
00:26:29,040 --> 00:26:30,080
Speaker 7: indicator for.

613
00:26:30,119 --> 00:26:30,720
Speaker 6: Me this week.

614
00:26:30,720 --> 00:26:34,320
Speaker 7: But again, he's also someone who thrives with accuracy, and

615
00:26:34,359 --> 00:26:37,159
Speaker 7: I think in the course that's going to sort of

616
00:26:37,240 --> 00:26:40,360
Speaker 7: lean towards guys who are more accurate rather than than bombers.

617
00:26:40,359 --> 00:26:41,960
Speaker 7: That's also going to help him quite a bit here.

618
00:26:42,480 --> 00:26:45,040
Speaker 7: You know, the putting not showing much predictiveness here is

619
00:26:45,440 --> 00:26:47,119
Speaker 7: is also going to help calam Marakawa. And then a

620
00:26:47,119 --> 00:26:49,720
Speaker 7: lot of his proximate numbers. Obviously Spencer touched on that

621
00:26:49,760 --> 00:26:52,960
Speaker 7: as well. But you know, when looking at specific you

622
00:26:52,960 --> 00:26:56,840
Speaker 7: know Yard's buckets here obviously for me, hundred yards to

623
00:26:56,840 --> 00:26:58,879
Speaker 7: one hundred fifty yards is going to be you know,

624
00:26:58,920 --> 00:27:03,320
Speaker 7: the most important bucket, and Marikawa in that grouping has

625
00:27:03,359 --> 00:27:06,639
Speaker 7: the second best proximity to the pin on approach in

626
00:27:06,680 --> 00:27:09,920
Speaker 7: those plays and also leads. You know, he's top in

627
00:27:10,680 --> 00:27:13,400
Speaker 7: this field and strokes can approach in that distance as well,

628
00:27:13,440 --> 00:27:15,600
Speaker 7: So I think there's a lot of things from the

629
00:27:15,640 --> 00:27:17,639
Speaker 7: approach player are going to look good for Morikaw. But

630
00:27:17,800 --> 00:27:20,000
Speaker 7: I think again the you know, the precision off the

631
00:27:20,000 --> 00:27:22,280
Speaker 7: tee and you know, the putting not driving a lot

632
00:27:22,280 --> 00:27:24,679
Speaker 7: of predictive value this week has me on Maricaw at

633
00:27:24,680 --> 00:27:25,320
Speaker 7: twenty to one.

634
00:27:25,440 --> 00:27:28,720
Speaker 4: You also like Kideki Matsuyama almost at forty to one,

635
00:27:29,240 --> 00:27:32,280
Speaker 4: And just from an outsider perspective, I'm gonna say I

636
00:27:32,400 --> 00:27:34,720
Speaker 4: like people who can win on really difficult golf courses.

637
00:27:35,000 --> 00:27:37,000
Speaker 4: You know, this is not if this was a tournament

638
00:27:37,000 --> 00:27:38,840
Speaker 4: that someone's going to win at twenty two to twenty

639
00:27:38,840 --> 00:27:41,800
Speaker 4: five under, I wouldn't be interested in him really at

640
00:27:41,800 --> 00:27:44,440
Speaker 4: any number, But when the course can be demanding and

641
00:27:44,560 --> 00:27:47,320
Speaker 4: lower scores are ending up being in the mix on Sunday,

642
00:27:47,480 --> 00:27:49,359
Speaker 4: he's a name that rises to the top of the

643
00:27:49,400 --> 00:27:52,560
Speaker 4: list for me, particularly at this value level. Anything else

644
00:27:52,600 --> 00:27:54,400
Speaker 4: in terms of his game or how he's playing right

645
00:27:54,400 --> 00:27:56,119
Speaker 4: now leading into the tournament.

646
00:27:55,920 --> 00:27:57,960
Speaker 3: And the start on Thursday, that has you encouraged.

647
00:27:58,320 --> 00:27:58,919
Speaker 6: Yeah, definitely.

648
00:27:59,080 --> 00:28:01,560
Speaker 7: I mean I think obviously he's someone that does also

649
00:28:01,600 --> 00:28:04,240
Speaker 7: fit the bill of these ball strikers who you know,

650
00:28:04,359 --> 00:28:06,959
Speaker 7: might not necessarily have the you know, the greatest putting actimen.

651
00:28:07,040 --> 00:28:10,679
Speaker 6: But again he's someone who can certainly end up.

652
00:28:10,880 --> 00:28:12,600
Speaker 7: You know, if we look back on on Sunday night

653
00:28:12,680 --> 00:28:14,840
Speaker 7: or Monday morning and saw that Hitdekie mount Syama led

654
00:28:15,119 --> 00:28:17,280
Speaker 7: the field in in ted green strokes gain, no one

655
00:28:17,280 --> 00:28:19,960
Speaker 7: would really be all that surprised. I'm not looking too

656
00:28:20,040 --> 00:28:22,479
Speaker 7: much at course history because again there's a lot of

657
00:28:22,800 --> 00:28:23,640
Speaker 7: volatility here.

658
00:28:24,400 --> 00:28:25,879
Speaker 6: So what I did was I ended up.

659
00:28:25,920 --> 00:28:28,280
Speaker 7: Factoring in you know, some course comparisons and some Pete

660
00:28:28,320 --> 00:28:31,240
Speaker 7: Die Strokes gain profiles and Hitadakian mount Yama grades out

661
00:28:31,280 --> 00:28:34,200
Speaker 7: really well and those sorts of environments. So when when

662
00:28:34,240 --> 00:28:36,760
Speaker 7: putting those into you know, more of the equation of

663
00:28:37,040 --> 00:28:39,320
Speaker 7: course fit our course history rather than just simply taking

664
00:28:39,360 --> 00:28:41,840
Speaker 7: sawgrass where you know, we can see guys, you know

665
00:28:41,840 --> 00:28:45,200
Speaker 7: we've seen it historically, right, you know two years ago

666
00:28:45,520 --> 00:28:48,880
Speaker 7: Dokie Mountayama t six, three years ago, fifth place finish

667
00:28:49,080 --> 00:28:51,040
Speaker 7: during it all the way back to twenty twenty during

668
00:28:51,040 --> 00:28:53,440
Speaker 7: the COVID year. He I think he shot seven or

669
00:28:53,440 --> 00:28:55,840
Speaker 7: eight under in round one and was leading before that

670
00:28:55,880 --> 00:28:57,840
Speaker 7: was suspended. But he also has two misscuts in there,

671
00:28:57,880 --> 00:28:59,960
Speaker 7: so there's a lot of volatility in terms of looking

672
00:28:59,920 --> 00:29:03,200
Speaker 7: at simply just the course history at Sagress. But I

673
00:29:03,240 --> 00:29:05,719
Speaker 7: do think there is some predictive value to kind of

674
00:29:05,760 --> 00:29:08,400
Speaker 7: molding in more of a profile for certain players based

675
00:29:08,440 --> 00:29:11,400
Speaker 7: on the course design. Right, These these shorter courses that

676
00:29:11,600 --> 00:29:14,160
Speaker 7: demand a lot of accuracy, that demand you know, a

677
00:29:14,160 --> 00:29:16,640
Speaker 7: lot of you know, strong approach play. And also I

678
00:29:16,680 --> 00:29:18,840
Speaker 7: do think that stroke stating around the green is going

679
00:29:18,880 --> 00:29:20,760
Speaker 7: to be crucial this week. Not really a stat I

680
00:29:20,800 --> 00:29:22,520
Speaker 7: touched on and honestly, it's not a stat that I,

681
00:29:22,640 --> 00:29:25,120
Speaker 7: you know, typically grade super high in my model unless

682
00:29:25,120 --> 00:29:27,120
Speaker 7: it's really standing out, and that is something that is

683
00:29:27,560 --> 00:29:31,080
Speaker 7: you know, profiling as a big impact factor this week

684
00:29:31,120 --> 00:29:33,760
Speaker 7: because I do think again putting is going to be

685
00:29:33,840 --> 00:29:36,040
Speaker 7: less predictive because these ball strikers are going to allow

686
00:29:36,080 --> 00:29:38,440
Speaker 7: themselves to be put into better positions. I think anybody

687
00:29:38,440 --> 00:29:41,040
Speaker 7: can sort of you know, have a good week or

688
00:29:41,080 --> 00:29:43,120
Speaker 7: a bad week putting, So not a ton of predictive

689
00:29:43,160 --> 00:29:45,600
Speaker 7: value there, but for you know, the times where we're

690
00:29:45,640 --> 00:29:48,080
Speaker 7: not hitting greens with these players, strokes stating around the

691
00:29:48,120 --> 00:29:51,080
Speaker 7: green is going to be a very crucial, you know,

692
00:29:51,240 --> 00:29:54,880
Speaker 7: predictive stat here. And obviously Kimaiyama grades out really well

693
00:29:55,560 --> 00:29:57,400
Speaker 7: in that category. I have them as the second best

694
00:29:57,400 --> 00:29:59,560
Speaker 7: around the green player in this field this week, so

695
00:29:59,600 --> 00:30:00,959
Speaker 7: a lot of good things for Hedecki.

696
00:30:00,960 --> 00:30:03,920
Speaker 4: Maatciama, you've set yourself up well. Here is your number

697
00:30:03,920 --> 00:30:06,600
Speaker 4: one player, Alex Norn in that regard, because he is

698
00:30:06,640 --> 00:30:09,320
Speaker 4: a lead from a short game and scrambling perspective, and

699
00:30:09,360 --> 00:30:12,280
Speaker 4: obviously this course has small greens, they got runoffs, they

700
00:30:12,320 --> 00:30:15,680
Speaker 4: got water, so if you're able to avoid those, you know,

701
00:30:15,840 --> 00:30:18,200
Speaker 4: those bogies and double bogies by being a lead in

702
00:30:18,200 --> 00:30:21,440
Speaker 4: that regard. Eighty to one, that's a number that's enticing

703
00:30:21,440 --> 00:30:23,320
Speaker 4: for somebody who can get themselves out of trouble.

704
00:30:23,960 --> 00:30:25,760
Speaker 6: Yeah, I do have Justin Thomas still at number one.

705
00:30:25,760 --> 00:30:29,360
Speaker 7: Obviously some limited samples coming too play for JT. But

706
00:30:29,440 --> 00:30:31,520
Speaker 7: when looking back over the course of the last year,

707
00:30:31,640 --> 00:30:34,040
Speaker 7: so he's still number one and Strokes skinning around the green.

708
00:30:34,080 --> 00:30:36,440
Speaker 7: Obviously the rest of the game looks like a pretty

709
00:30:36,440 --> 00:30:39,040
Speaker 7: significant mess right now, but Norn is still top ten

710
00:30:39,280 --> 00:30:41,880
Speaker 7: and Strokes skating around the green having thirty fifth in

711
00:30:41,920 --> 00:30:45,280
Speaker 7: this field in approach play skill rating. So obviously, when

712
00:30:45,280 --> 00:30:46,800
Speaker 7: you're looking at a guy who is an eighty to

713
00:30:46,840 --> 00:30:49,680
Speaker 7: one type long shot here, who grades out as a

714
00:30:49,680 --> 00:30:53,680
Speaker 7: top twenty five player fit for this course in my model,

715
00:30:53,760 --> 00:30:55,120
Speaker 7: there's gonna be some nice value there.

716
00:30:55,160 --> 00:30:56,760
Speaker 6: So yeah, Norn at eighty to one.

717
00:30:56,800 --> 00:30:59,040
Speaker 7: Also, you know, liked him in top forty top twenty

718
00:30:59,040 --> 00:31:00,920
Speaker 7: marks as well, but definitely to highlight that eighty to

719
00:31:00,960 --> 00:31:01,720
Speaker 7: one number.

720
00:31:01,720 --> 00:31:03,959
Speaker 4: Let's go through the rest of your card lightning round style.

721
00:31:04,040 --> 00:31:07,440
Speaker 4: Burger over English at minus one eighteen on the juice.

722
00:31:07,800 --> 00:31:08,680
Speaker 3: Why do you like this one?

723
00:31:08,920 --> 00:31:09,080
Speaker 6: Yeah?

724
00:31:09,120 --> 00:31:12,000
Speaker 7: I was looking for ways to fade Harris English here

725
00:31:12,760 --> 00:31:15,200
Speaker 7: around the green play it has been poor. Approach play

726
00:31:15,240 --> 00:31:18,160
Speaker 7: has been poor, and you know, luckily we got a

727
00:31:18,160 --> 00:31:22,600
Speaker 7: Burger matchup market there where he's been not great around

728
00:31:22,640 --> 00:31:25,440
Speaker 7: the green but a top six player over the last

729
00:31:25,640 --> 00:31:27,560
Speaker 7: six months in my model.

730
00:31:27,240 --> 00:31:29,520
Speaker 6: Here on approach. So I like Burger over English there.

731
00:31:29,640 --> 00:31:32,280
Speaker 4: All right, let's keep going. Let's talk about Smotherman, a

732
00:31:32,360 --> 00:31:35,520
Speaker 4: volletle player. But perhaps you know there's ways on your

733
00:31:35,560 --> 00:31:37,600
Speaker 4: card to play him. You liked them, like him at

734
00:31:37,600 --> 00:31:39,800
Speaker 4: top twenty at almost seven to one.

735
00:31:40,560 --> 00:31:43,360
Speaker 7: Yeah, I had him in this market last week as well.

736
00:31:43,520 --> 00:31:46,320
Speaker 7: I also took a dart on the outright. I don't

737
00:31:46,320 --> 00:31:48,480
Speaker 7: think I can do the outright this week because obviously

738
00:31:48,480 --> 00:31:52,440
Speaker 7: he Withdrew last week with a back issue, so obviously

739
00:31:52,520 --> 00:31:53,120
Speaker 7: work noting.

740
00:31:53,120 --> 00:31:54,960
Speaker 6: I don't think this number will move at all. I

741
00:31:54,960 --> 00:31:55,360
Speaker 6: could be.

742
00:31:55,320 --> 00:31:58,120
Speaker 7: Wrong, but I don't mind waiting this one out, maybe

743
00:31:58,160 --> 00:32:00,360
Speaker 7: until you know, midday Wednesday, and seeing if we get

744
00:32:00,360 --> 00:32:02,320
Speaker 7: any sort of news. Obviously, golf news is hard to

745
00:32:02,320 --> 00:32:05,640
Speaker 7: come by when we're talking about specific injuries and other

746
00:32:05,760 --> 00:32:08,880
Speaker 7: options for across the sporty markets and also someme other

747
00:32:09,120 --> 00:32:11,200
Speaker 7: not necessarily the biggest name in golf, so maybe we

748
00:32:11,240 --> 00:32:13,800
Speaker 7: don't get news there, but don't mind waiting to see

749
00:32:13,800 --> 00:32:15,920
Speaker 7: if we do get any any rumors there.

750
00:32:16,440 --> 00:32:20,680
Speaker 4: We make sure I pronounced his name rights zeichhang do dough.

751
00:32:20,760 --> 00:32:21,360
Speaker 3: Is that correct?

752
00:32:21,600 --> 00:32:23,960
Speaker 6: Yep, that's what I have as well. So all right, excell.

753
00:32:23,680 --> 00:32:25,520
Speaker 4: Once we're off to a great start here, Now talk

754
00:32:25,560 --> 00:32:27,520
Speaker 4: to me about his game and why he's a solid

755
00:32:27,600 --> 00:32:30,160
Speaker 4: pick to finish in the top twenty at plus eight fifty.

756
00:32:30,440 --> 00:32:32,760
Speaker 7: Yeah, I think eight to fifty for a top twenty

757
00:32:32,800 --> 00:32:36,280
Speaker 7: is obviously a longer shot play here, Certainly not somebody

758
00:32:36,280 --> 00:32:38,400
Speaker 7: I'm looking to back the out markets, but he is

759
00:32:38,440 --> 00:32:41,120
Speaker 7: someone that you know, fits what I'm looking for to

760
00:32:41,320 --> 00:32:43,600
Speaker 7: t Obviously some smaller sample stuff here as well, but

761
00:32:44,160 --> 00:32:45,960
Speaker 7: in that small sample he grates out was the top

762
00:32:46,040 --> 00:32:50,880
Speaker 7: fifteen recent form strokes gain approach player and top twenty

763
00:32:50,880 --> 00:32:53,720
Speaker 7: five in around the Green. So when just looking at

764
00:32:53,760 --> 00:32:55,920
Speaker 7: his sharps gain profile like that one there at eight

765
00:32:55,960 --> 00:32:57,800
Speaker 7: fifty and any simmed out well for me as.

766
00:32:57,720 --> 00:33:03,360
Speaker 4: Well, another top twenty mac Meisner plus five fifty eleven

767
00:33:03,360 --> 00:33:06,000
Speaker 4: to two out there in the market. Anything different in

768
00:33:06,120 --> 00:33:09,200
Speaker 4: terms of his you know, player profile as it relates

769
00:33:09,240 --> 00:33:10,600
Speaker 4: to this course as as some of the other ones

770
00:33:10,600 --> 00:33:11,320
Speaker 4: you'd like this week.

771
00:33:11,840 --> 00:33:14,600
Speaker 7: Yeah, Macmeiser, and this a J eight you were make

772
00:33:14,680 --> 00:33:17,160
Speaker 7: cut play at plus one eighteen. Both kind of just

773
00:33:17,200 --> 00:33:19,320
Speaker 7: fall in line with guys who just simmed out well

774
00:33:19,360 --> 00:33:22,480
Speaker 7: that they do have just some longer shots of like

775
00:33:22,480 --> 00:33:24,000
Speaker 7: plus one eighteen to make a cut here in a

776
00:33:24,080 --> 00:33:26,760
Speaker 7: very volatile event, you're not really going to get many

777
00:33:27,200 --> 00:33:30,520
Speaker 7: plus money options for guys in the make cut profile.

778
00:33:30,560 --> 00:33:32,520
Speaker 7: And you know, he's someone who does great out well

779
00:33:32,520 --> 00:33:35,480
Speaker 7: in terms of approach play of course fit and off

780
00:33:35,480 --> 00:33:38,120
Speaker 7: the t fit stuff. So you were at plus one

781
00:33:38,160 --> 00:33:40,840
Speaker 7: eighteen to make the cut, Macimiser. Here's someone who's I've

782
00:33:40,840 --> 00:33:44,000
Speaker 7: been betting on pretty significantly, you know, pretty much all

783
00:33:44,040 --> 00:33:47,840
Speaker 7: season long. A very strong approach player with the ability

784
00:33:47,880 --> 00:33:50,360
Speaker 7: to spike there. But he also fits very well for

785
00:33:50,520 --> 00:33:55,400
Speaker 7: this course, specifically in different yard buckets and obviously proximity stuff.

786
00:33:55,440 --> 00:33:57,880
Speaker 7: So I like Mackimiser top twenty. And then my last

787
00:33:57,880 --> 00:34:01,680
Speaker 7: play here Ricky. I know faded Ricky in the seventy

788
00:34:01,680 --> 00:34:03,880
Speaker 7: two hole matchup, but I liked him in the round

789
00:34:04,000 --> 00:34:07,560
Speaker 7: one three ball here against Speith and Tagala. Sweeth and

790
00:34:07,880 --> 00:34:11,360
Speaker 7: Gala both had strong showings last week, as did Ricky,

791
00:34:11,719 --> 00:34:14,440
Speaker 7: but plus one seventy here in a three ball market

792
00:34:14,560 --> 00:34:17,040
Speaker 7: for Ricky Fowler, who again has been one of the

793
00:34:17,080 --> 00:34:20,279
Speaker 7: safer players over the course of the last few months.

794
00:34:20,320 --> 00:34:22,160
Speaker 6: And then you have Spieth and who have both been

795
00:34:22,280 --> 00:34:22,880
Speaker 6: very volatile.

796
00:34:23,440 --> 00:34:25,520
Speaker 7: So I'll take Ricky Fowler here a plus one seven

797
00:34:25,560 --> 00:34:26,719
Speaker 7: in the three ball market.

798
00:34:26,960 --> 00:34:29,560
Speaker 4: If any markets were to pop Spencer in terms of

799
00:34:29,600 --> 00:34:33,360
Speaker 4: being able to grab both Scotty and Rory against the field,

800
00:34:33,360 --> 00:34:35,440
Speaker 4: what would be your cutoff in terms of juice that

801
00:34:35,480 --> 00:34:37,520
Speaker 4: you'd like to have both of those golfers.

802
00:34:37,920 --> 00:34:40,440
Speaker 1: I think there's been an overcorrection that's happened a little

803
00:34:40,440 --> 00:34:42,959
Speaker 1: bit with the Scotty shuffler, so maybe even with Rory

804
00:34:43,000 --> 00:34:43,520
Speaker 1: if you want to.

805
00:34:43,440 --> 00:34:44,399
Speaker 5: Look at it with the back.

806
00:34:45,960 --> 00:34:48,759
Speaker 1: I mean, I have proper right now on Scotty, which

807
00:34:48,800 --> 00:34:51,080
Speaker 1: he's drifted a little bit from where I had him

808
00:34:51,120 --> 00:34:53,359
Speaker 1: last week. I came on this show and talked about

809
00:34:53,360 --> 00:34:56,440
Speaker 1: all the reasons why I liked him. I have proper

810
00:34:56,480 --> 00:34:58,359
Speaker 1: for him a little bit over five to one. I mean,

811
00:34:58,400 --> 00:35:00,600
Speaker 1: so you can honestly shop around it and still find

812
00:35:00,600 --> 00:35:03,920
Speaker 1: prices for him that are somewhat doable. I'm less in

813
00:35:04,040 --> 00:35:08,160
Speaker 1: on the Rory McElroy profile. I ended up having Stewoo

814
00:35:08,200 --> 00:35:10,200
Speaker 1: Kim as my second most likely person to win this

815
00:35:10,280 --> 00:35:13,040
Speaker 1: golf tournament, So I don't know exactly what I think

816
00:35:13,120 --> 00:35:15,160
Speaker 1: Rory's adding to the mix right now with this. I

817
00:35:15,280 --> 00:35:17,560
Speaker 1: would almost rather just see what I can get Scottie,

818
00:35:17,560 --> 00:35:19,839
Speaker 1: and if you can get him somewhere in that six seven,

819
00:35:19,920 --> 00:35:22,160
Speaker 1: eight to one range, I think you certainly have to

820
00:35:22,239 --> 00:35:25,600
Speaker 1: consider it to double down a little bit on what

821
00:35:25,719 --> 00:35:27,920
Speaker 1: Kyle just talked about with a lot of those names,

822
00:35:27,920 --> 00:35:30,360
Speaker 1: Like I just ran right now some of the placement

823
00:35:30,400 --> 00:35:32,839
Speaker 1: markets and the players for me that were the best

824
00:35:32,920 --> 00:35:39,960
Speaker 1: values that I had on the board. Ewart McGreevy now Smotherman, Meisner, Smally,

825
00:35:41,719 --> 00:35:43,839
Speaker 1: you guys might be better with names than I am.

826
00:35:43,880 --> 00:35:48,400
Speaker 1: I'm not going to try to butcher and miss mispronounced names,

827
00:35:48,400 --> 00:35:54,680
Speaker 1: but Sue Darshan, Yella Majaru that might be correct, but

828
00:35:54,800 --> 00:35:57,400
Speaker 1: that was another name that ended up popping for me.

829
00:35:57,960 --> 00:36:02,560
Speaker 1: I mean, that's essentially the City seven and guys that

830
00:36:02,680 --> 00:36:04,960
Speaker 1: I would be trying to find ways to get exposure

831
00:36:05,000 --> 00:36:07,319
Speaker 1: to this weekend. A lot of those markets I kind

832
00:36:07,320 --> 00:36:08,480
Speaker 1: of mentioned at the beginning.

833
00:36:08,560 --> 00:36:10,120
Speaker 5: I have a lot of agreement.

834
00:36:09,719 --> 00:36:12,839
Speaker 1: With what Kyle said. I really like Shane Lowery here

835
00:36:12,880 --> 00:36:16,440
Speaker 1: against Jordan's speed. The speak profile is so boom or

836
00:36:16,520 --> 00:36:18,480
Speaker 1: bust because of the putter. This is the worst ball

837
00:36:18,520 --> 00:36:22,480
Speaker 1: striking he's taken to the tournament. I ended up backing Stepstraka.

838
00:36:22,840 --> 00:36:25,160
Speaker 1: I got him very early on Monday, and it's not

839
00:36:25,360 --> 00:36:28,640
Speaker 1: doable for this market right now. I got him against

840
00:36:28,680 --> 00:36:31,000
Speaker 1: Brooks Koepka in the one thirties. That's out into like

841
00:36:31,040 --> 00:36:34,000
Speaker 1: the two hundreds now, so not something that's going to

842
00:36:34,040 --> 00:36:36,520
Speaker 1: necessarily be able to be given on this show. But

843
00:36:37,760 --> 00:36:40,400
Speaker 1: the other one would be Jacob Bridgeman. I like the

844
00:36:40,400 --> 00:36:42,560
Speaker 1: top twenty call from Kyle. I took him in a

845
00:36:42,560 --> 00:36:45,400
Speaker 1: matchup against Sam Burns. I think both have about the

846
00:36:45,440 --> 00:36:47,759
Speaker 1: same amount of value depending on which way you want

847
00:36:47,760 --> 00:36:50,240
Speaker 1: to take it, but there's a lot of different routes

848
00:36:50,280 --> 00:36:52,960
Speaker 1: to take and of everything that has been said on

849
00:36:52,960 --> 00:36:55,960
Speaker 1: this show so far, in my opinion, the sharpest thing

850
00:36:56,080 --> 00:36:58,760
Speaker 1: was from Kyle when we just talk about over correction

851
00:36:58,920 --> 00:37:02,000
Speaker 1: to the market and names that drift too far one

852
00:37:02,000 --> 00:37:04,040
Speaker 1: way or another based off of what they've done through

853
00:37:04,080 --> 00:37:05,480
Speaker 1: a short term sample size.

854
00:37:05,719 --> 00:37:07,560
Speaker 5: You get that with Lowry, You get that.

855
00:37:07,520 --> 00:37:09,839
Speaker 1: With Can't Lay from the good or I'm sorry, from

856
00:37:09,880 --> 00:37:12,440
Speaker 1: the bad of the profile and then the good end

857
00:37:12,480 --> 00:37:15,640
Speaker 1: of it quote unquote from Jordan Speith ends up boosting

858
00:37:15,719 --> 00:37:17,440
Speaker 1: him a little bit too high up on the board.

859
00:37:17,520 --> 00:37:20,120
Speaker 1: So at the end of the day, you're always trying

860
00:37:20,120 --> 00:37:22,839
Speaker 1: to find these incongruities to the market that end up

861
00:37:22,840 --> 00:37:25,400
Speaker 1: forming because of the overcorrection that takes place.

862
00:37:25,440 --> 00:37:27,640
Speaker 5: And this is not just the golf thing.

863
00:37:27,840 --> 00:37:31,120
Speaker 1: This plays across every single sport with whatever you're wanting

864
00:37:31,160 --> 00:37:33,680
Speaker 1: to bet. I used to come on here on action

865
00:37:33,719 --> 00:37:35,960
Speaker 1: shows and if you want to talk about Monday night football,

866
00:37:36,000 --> 00:37:38,920
Speaker 1: like the primetime game that everybody's seeing the team that

867
00:37:38,920 --> 00:37:41,600
Speaker 1: gets blown out in that game, everybody thinks it's going

868
00:37:41,680 --> 00:37:45,040
Speaker 1: to happen again, and Can't Lay is kind of the

869
00:37:45,080 --> 00:37:48,840
Speaker 1: prime poster child for that where everybody's looking for a

870
00:37:48,880 --> 00:37:50,680
Speaker 1: reason to not want to back them, which ends up

871
00:37:50,719 --> 00:37:54,000
Speaker 1: inflating some of these secondary markets like a top twenty.

872
00:37:54,040 --> 00:37:55,680
Speaker 1: I understand if you want to make the argument that

873
00:37:55,719 --> 00:37:57,920
Speaker 1: can't lay doesn't win. Kyle talked about he doesn't bet,

874
00:37:57,920 --> 00:37:59,839
Speaker 1: can't lay, I do bet, can't lay, I bet him

875
00:38:00,120 --> 00:38:00,879
Speaker 1: or too often and.

876
00:38:00,760 --> 00:38:03,240
Speaker 5: It usually doesn't work out. But these top.

877
00:38:03,000 --> 00:38:05,160
Speaker 1: Twenty markets you don't need a victory from. And then

878
00:38:05,520 --> 00:38:10,120
Speaker 1: same thing with Shane Lowry. He absolutely imploded on himself

879
00:38:10,160 --> 00:38:12,280
Speaker 1: down the stretch and that's all anybody wanted to see.

880
00:38:12,400 --> 00:38:14,279
Speaker 1: He misses the cut in the next start. And if

881
00:38:14,280 --> 00:38:17,040
Speaker 1: you just want to look at profiles, I talked about

882
00:38:17,120 --> 00:38:21,160
Speaker 1: this when I was discussing the Scott and the Rose play.

883
00:38:21,719 --> 00:38:24,720
Speaker 1: Lowry is very consistent coming into this tournament. He provides

884
00:38:24,719 --> 00:38:28,160
Speaker 1: almost this same exact ball striking mark over and over

885
00:38:28,200 --> 00:38:31,160
Speaker 1: and over again. And if if you are concerned about

886
00:38:31,520 --> 00:38:33,400
Speaker 1: the two point three shots that he lost with his

887
00:38:33,440 --> 00:38:36,799
Speaker 1: approach game in twenty twenty three, he also lost two

888
00:38:36,840 --> 00:38:39,359
Speaker 1: point seven shots at the Arnold Palmer. He came back

889
00:38:39,360 --> 00:38:42,239
Speaker 1: at the players and gained six point five. So this

890
00:38:42,280 --> 00:38:44,200
Speaker 1: is a golfer that loves the floor to swing. That

891
00:38:44,239 --> 00:38:46,840
Speaker 1: can find upside in these events, and when you have

892
00:38:46,880 --> 00:38:49,279
Speaker 1: a golfer like speed that every single time in my

893
00:38:49,400 --> 00:38:52,400
Speaker 1: model entering this tournament, he's gained less than one stroke

894
00:38:52,440 --> 00:38:55,279
Speaker 1: ball striking, he's missed the cut, and a lot of

895
00:38:55,280 --> 00:38:57,560
Speaker 1: these are positive ones in like the zero point four

896
00:38:57,600 --> 00:39:00,600
Speaker 1: to zero point nine range where he's actually gaining. He's

897
00:39:00,680 --> 00:39:04,040
Speaker 1: negative zero point six' two right. Now ball striking one

898
00:39:04,040 --> 00:39:06,360
Speaker 1: of the worst Profiles i've seen from. Speech SO i

899
00:39:06,400 --> 00:39:10,279
Speaker 1: would not be number shopping in the sense that like

900
00:39:10,440 --> 00:39:13,160
Speaker 1: look at where what place the eleventh to twelfth to twenty,

901
00:39:13,239 --> 00:39:16,320
Speaker 1: Ninth like that's not telling the picture of What jordan's

902
00:39:16,320 --> 00:39:17,520
Speaker 1: speak is actually. Doing.

903
00:39:17,560 --> 00:39:19,760
Speaker 5: It it's all, putter it's all flat.

904
00:39:19,760 --> 00:39:21,640
Speaker 1: Stick at the end of the, day that's The jordan's

905
00:39:21,640 --> 00:39:24,239
Speaker 1: speech special that you always have to worry, about but

906
00:39:24,320 --> 00:39:27,080
Speaker 1: not really one of those tournaments where you should be

907
00:39:27,160 --> 00:39:28,239
Speaker 1: banking on that sort of a.

908
00:39:28,280 --> 00:39:31,120
Speaker 4: Result all, right, guys appreciate you everything you brought to the.

909
00:39:31,120 --> 00:39:34,080
Speaker 4: Table we got tons of bets throughout this. Episode make

910
00:39:34,120 --> 00:39:36,400
Speaker 4: sure to go back and listen through with a paper

911
00:39:36,440 --> 00:39:39,120
Speaker 4: and pen, out because there's lots of different ways to attack.

912
00:39:39,160 --> 00:39:42,560
Speaker 4: It from those placement, wagers those three balls With ricky the,

913
00:39:42,640 --> 00:39:45,640
Speaker 4: outrights just so many different ways to attack this. Field

914
00:39:45,880 --> 00:39:47,880
Speaker 4: that'll do it for today's. Episode thanks for joining us

915
00:39:47,920 --> 00:39:49,960
Speaker 4: here at The Action network. Podcast be sure to check

916
00:39:50,000 --> 00:39:52,360
Speaker 4: out actionnetwork dot com and The Action app for all

917
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Speaker 3: There For Spencer.

925
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Speaker 4: Agyar And Kyle murray On Mike Calbary's best of up this,

926
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Speaker 4: weekend and we'll see you here next time on The

927
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Speaker 4: Action network.

928
00:40:19,640 --> 00:40:35,279
Speaker 1: Podcast Action network reminds you please gamble. Responsibly if you

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