S1: Hello, I'm Peter Townsend, and welcome to forecast the post-election
S1: episode after five grueling weeks. And I'm just talking our
S1: weekly forecast episodes here. The election has been run and won,
S1: and the libs are back for a fourth historic term,
S1: albeit in minority. Here to go through the entrails of
S1: the election, as they have for the past five weeks.
S1: Win news director Alex Johnston. Hello and Mercury chief political
S1: reporter David Killer Killick. Great to be here. And of course,
S1: returning from his secondment to the Liberal campaign is Brad Stansfield,
S1: who has been absolutely champing at the bit to come
S1: back to forecast today. And the first question I have
S1: for you, Brad, is did you have roast turkey for
S1: dinner last night?
S2: Yes. Speech. Um, no, I didn't, but I would have
S2: loved to have had some. I think I had some
S2: pork instead, but, uh. Yeah, roast turkey, gravy, a barrel.
S2: Definitely on the menu on Saturday night. And look, it
S2: is thrilling to be back on the show of, um, uh,
S2: in just listened, uh, enjoyed and endured in various parts
S2: over the past five weeks. And I'm really thrilled to
S2: be able to restore some balance to this program. Although
S2: it pains.
S1: Me to say that some people have given feedback that
S1: they actually missed you in the same way that miss Mr.. Mr. Burns,
S1: if he wasn't on The Simpsons, I imagine. But anyway,
S1: I don't think he's been through the sheep dip enough
S1: times to be honest.
S2: I had some feedback that people just missed the, uh,
S2: the tighter tie between myself and Alex. Oh, well.
S1: I can strap themselves in for the next hour or so.
S1: All right, well, come on, Brad, you've got to say it.
S1: Give us. Give us your $0.10 worth.
S2: Well, um, I would start out with this comment. Um,
S2: elections are about winning. There is only two options. You
S2: are the winner or you lose. And, um. Uh. We won.
S1: Did you. Did you know who won in 2010 then? Labor. Well.
S1: Sharp intake of breath. Yeah. Do you want to go
S1: beach or should we start there? You go for it, AJ.
S1: It's all yours. I mean, the idea was to provide
S1: a stable parliament. And now you're going to have to
S1: rely on a crossbench, some of which we don't know yet.
S1: Of course, still a lot of votes to be counted.
S1: But give me the pitch. Why are we in a
S1: more stable position than we were five weeks ago, when
S1: the election wasn't due for another 13 months? All right.
S2: A few things. Firstly, as alluded to, the turkeys, the
S2: rebels are gone. Yep. No, as is just full of record,
S2: I think, noting the attempted, um, uh, comeback from the
S2: from the original rebel. Miss Hickey also failed, and I
S2: think so. I think there's just a broader lesson there
S2: and what the electorate think about people that are disloyal
S2: to their party. So that's my first point.
S1: The interests of democracy are not always exactly the same
S1: as a vendetta, but it's good that it's good that you.
S2: People have spoken.
S1: The people have spoken. It's great that it aligned with
S1: your interests. I saw John Tucker on Saturday night. He
S1: said he had no regrets. He was proud of the
S1: way he stood up for what he believed in. He
S1: did cop it from you. And I've had lots of
S1: feedback that the way that they've been described and by
S1: myself as well, calling them defectors was, um, unfair. Uh,
S1: but do you have anything nice to say about them now?
S1: They're out of political life? Brad.
S2: No, no, I think that, um, as I said, possibly
S2: in the last episode, I was here. The most important
S2: thing in politics is loyalty. And if you are disloyal,
S2: then political sense. You deserve everything you got coming through.
S2: All right? That's what's happened. So that's the biggest point.
S2: But yeah.
S1: So second point. Why are we in a better position now?
S1: All right.
S2: Let's do a bit of math. Now my David's got
S2: about 15 spreadsheets over there and a calculator ready to
S2: ready to calculate against me. But, um, I would make
S2: this point. The parliament went from 25, 6 to 35 seats. Um,
S2: the labor seat count went from 9 to 10. I
S2: think that's where it will end on my assessment and
S2: Kevin Bonham's assessment. So, as we know, made him always
S2: on a unity ticket. Um, so that is, by my calculation,
S2: they went from that was, uh, in a 25 seat parliament.
S2: They were at 36% of the parliament, and they are
S2: now going to be at 28% of the parliament. So
S2: labor representation in the Parliament has actually gone backwards. The
S2: Liberal Party started the election at 11 seats, uh, and
S2: by the end of the count will be at 15
S2: under 35, which by my calculation is a 1% drop
S2: from 44 to 43. So essentially the same representation. So
S2: I think the first point to be made is the
S2: Liberal position in the Parliament is proportionally as good as
S2: it was beforehand. In fact, it sped up because their
S2: main opponents have gone backwards.
S1: But you didn't get back the two seats that, um,
S1: went to the crossbench. Is that a failure?
S2: No. Third point I would make is that, as alluded
S2: to in the first point, the the rebels have gone
S2: and they have been replaced by.
S1: Yes. Jealous? Who?
S2: Well, no. Mostly unknowns, but I think the point can
S2: fairly be made. And judging by the public comments of
S2: Senator Lambie, that they are people who are minded to
S2: deliver stability and certainty rather than being monitored, deliver wrecking
S2: and vendettas and instability. That's that's a very big difference.
S2: The Parliament is completely different in that sense. The wreckers
S2: are gone and people are there that want to make
S2: it work.
S1: Mark those words. Yeah, exactly. Yeah. A picture of stability. Yeah.
S1: I mean, it's going to be great. John Tucker and
S1: Laurie Alexander were two virtues of stability for a long
S1: time and then changed their mind. But let's hope for
S1: Brad's sake that, um, he knows what he's getting himself into. Well,
S1: let's hope for Tasmania's sake. I mean, when we're sitting
S1: here looking at the party that won 37% of the vote,
S1: forming government over the party that won 29% of the vote,
S1: you know, it's a lot of people didn't vote for
S1: a major party. That's right.
S2: It's guys, you know, the election's over. You know the
S2: kool aid. The government has been returned. Asterisk. Yeah. Our
S2: government has been returned.
S1: Government has a government has been returned. It'll require the
S1: support of people who've been named. And speaking of knowing,
S1: the election's over, did you? Right. Um, Jeremy Rockliff speech
S1: on Saturday night. Premiers words. Goodness me. It was like
S1: George Bush on the aircraft carrier mission. Mission accomplished, wasn't it?
S2: And great. And what happened 23 hours later.
S1: 24 hours later, he remembered that it was probably not
S1: a very good speech and changed his tune.
S2: No, Alex. 24 hours later, the opposition leader did what
S2: she should have done on election night and conceded because
S2: she couldn't form government from ten seats. I'll forget about.
S1: Labor. We'll get to their problems.
S2: So my point is, you have to.
S1: Admit he got the tone badly wrong on Saturday night
S1: and rectified it yesterday. No, the.
S2: Premier declared victory on Saturday night because he won on
S2: Saturday night, Saturday night, as was then confirmed on Sunday
S2: when the opposition leader conceded defeat.
S1: But why not on Saturday night? Say that clearly the
S1: government was sent a message like he said yesterday. Like
S1: Michael Ferguson said today credit where it's due. I think
S1: they've said all the right things since, but on Saturday
S1: night it looked like.
S2: Would you prefer to concede it on Saturday night?
S1: No. Well another victory like that. And he would have
S1: had to you know, I mean you can't you can't
S1: have another win like that where you lose 12% of
S1: your 12, you suffer a 12% swing and lose.
S2: 25% of vote buying labor 11 and the executive building
S2: out the Labor Party.
S1: Yeah, well, but when 60% of the population don't vote
S1: for you, I'm not sure you can make the speech
S1: that Jeremy Rockliff made on Saturday night. Where was the
S1: concession that a lot of people have voted for a
S1: different option? Um, anyway, I thought he'd got it right yesterday.
S1: It's just perplexing. On Saturday night.
S2: Memo to Premier. Don't declare victory when you win.
S1: I mean, you were very harsh. And Rebecca White's speech
S1: in 2018 when she lost. Yes, when she lost. But
S1: you know, similar, um, misstep in terms of reading the room,
S1: I would have thought, um, no. Okay. Well, you are
S1: the first person to say that out of about 150
S1: people I've talked to about it.
S2: So have you been outside of Clark?
S1: Uh, no, obviously, I haven't been outside of Clark. No,
S1: it's it's a quaint tradition of the parliament, I thought,
S1: that decides who forms government. Who becomes premier. Is that
S1: is that not.
S2: Is that the voters to decide? Voters and the voters.
S1: Decide who goes to parliament? The parliament decides to form
S1: government and the leader of that party becomes premier. Well,
S1: I think there's this saga has a little way to go.
S1: We've got a few weeks of uncertainty. He'll actually form Parliament.
S1: I think. I admire your certitude.
S2: The rock of Liberal government has been returned.
S1: So Kelly's right. It's impact. Killing is right. You're very
S1: lucky that the Labor Party is scared of itself and
S1: scared of the prospect of governing with the Greens. Because
S1: they could they could Stuart. All right. So you that
S1: speech was made knowing that labor would buckle on the Sunday. Okay.
S1: Well once again you're playing you're playing chess and the
S1: rest of us are playing tic tac toe. Well no.
S1: Hold on. I will throw in my $0.10 worth I've
S1: given you. I've given you all a bit of leash
S1: here to go for it. Uh, to let Brad to
S1: get it out of his system to Brad. It's got
S1: more bent. And for you gents to argue your position. Look,
S1: the reality is that my reading of it was was
S1: labor on on Saturday night were still keeping the dream alive.
S1: They were looking at trying to come up with a
S1: solution that was workable, that would see them governed. Right.
S1: That was definitely the messages that I was receiving. I suspect,
S1: by the nods that you gents were receiving similar kinds
S1: of commentary regarding that. So. Oh, I could just tell
S1: by the speech that Rebecca White wanted to release. Let
S1: the dust settle.
S2: So let's come in here. I'm sorry, you guys, who
S2: are guardians of our democracy through the Fourth Estate, seemed
S2: to be suggesting that you thought it absolutely fine that
S2: Rebecca might. Go back on her word and do a
S2: deal with the Greens.
S1: No, I'm not saying that.
S2: Well, that was the only.
S1: Way there was then. A defending steel is basically a
S1: labor form government. I mean, it it would require some extraordinary,
S1: some extraordinary. Um, yeah. Diplomacy and going back on their word. Yeah,
S1: she would be punished for that. But like David said,
S1: you know, they're the people have spoken. If those other
S1: parties in opposition or decided to form a coalition, I mean.
S2: Integrity in politics, whatever happened to it? Boy, I'm not.
S1: Saying that she wouldn't have been punished or not. They first,
S1: wouldn't it certainly be cheering for their I'm not cheering
S1: for the outcome. But of course that is a possibility.
S1: It happens in Europe all the time.
S2: So don't go into elections promising not to do it.
S1: No, no. And then you would hit them over the
S1: head with a political hammer and that's fine. And I
S1: think they were stupid at the speech Rebecca White made
S1: on election night. She should have made in the first
S1: day of the campaign. And more people might have considered
S1: voting Labour, or at least preferencing Labour. I think it
S1: was the the right speech at the wrong time. So
S1: but it was too upbeat. It was too much of
S1: a victory speech rather than a concession speech. No. But
S1: she touched on some very good points that Jeremy Rockliff
S1: failed to do. She had a much better, such as
S1: a lot of people did not vote for the major parties.
S1: And you've got to respect that and you've got to
S1: interpret that as well. Maybe we're not the greatest, you know,
S1: God's gift to our, you know, democracy. Let me let
S1: me just make a point. And then you can keep
S1: you can keep going with Iran. And we'll call this
S1: not a podcast, but we'll call it a rant fest.
S1: But look, the reality is that what was swirling around the, the,
S1: the the tally room, right? And thank God we had
S1: a tally room. It was that labor were trying to
S1: stitch up a deal. First point. Second point is if
S1: you want something, you've got to claim it. So what
S1: Premier Rockliff did was he came in and he claimed it.
S1: He claimed his ground and he said it was his
S1: election and it was his win. That's what occurred. Right.
S1: And it was the next day that labor realised that
S1: they weren't going to be able to pull something together.
S1: And so Rebecca White had to concede defeat. That's what occurred.
S1: And that's why the premier delivered the speech he delivered.
S1: And that's why Rebecca delivered the speech she delivered on
S1: the night. And that's what occurred, I think. I think
S1: the premier could have certainly celebrated the result and made
S1: the point that we are in a much, much, much
S1: stronger position than labor to form this government. No, he
S1: didn't do that. He turned down step further. No, no.
S1: And he broke with tradition. He turned up before the
S1: opposition leader. Right. And he said, I have won this election.
S1: I am claiming my victory, full stop. That's what he did.
S1: And he forced labor to think about that and to
S1: think about what they would do in response to it.
S1: That's a fact. That's what occurred. I think the criticism
S1: of both leaders, in hindsight is a glorious thing. And
S1: I think, you know, with the benefit of that, um,
S1: you know, we can we can say, I think Mr.
S1: Rockliff was too quick to claim victory. And, um, and
S1: and Rebecca Whitestone was possibly wrong. These speeches, these comments
S1: are made in the heat of a fevered night of excitement.
S1: And when the numbers aren't really known, I think you
S1: can forgive for people for not getting it exactly spot on. However,
S1: I'm going to disagree. I'm sorry. One party throughout this
S1: campaign aggressively campaigned to win, and one other party sort
S1: of went through the campaign with sort of a wishy
S1: washy approach. And all that Rockliff did at that speech
S1: night was claim victory, just as he's aggressively campaigned with
S1: a retail style of politics all the way through the campaign.
S1: That's what occurred. It's why why do we see such
S1: a dramatic change of tone the next day? Because I
S1: think you'll find that labor had realised that they should
S1: be conceding defeat. Well, I they certainly did that, but
S1: I don't think it had anything to do with Jeremy
S1: Rockliff speech. I think the everyone other than Rebecca White,
S1: I think, thought the prospect of trying to govern from
S1: such a weak position, it was just untenable. But she
S1: was thinking it. And so the Premier called it out.
S2: It's clear she was more than thinking it. It was
S2: conversations being had.
S1: I actually don't know that no one well, I mean,
S1: maybe I was out of the loop. Well out of
S1: the loop and and what between. Yeah, between labor and
S1: the Greens. Of course there was, was there? Well, Rosalie
S1: Woodruff said today that she has not heard from either
S1: party leader. But she also think it.
S2: Would have been through the conversations at the top.
S1: Since the election. What benefit would it do either of
S1: them to talk before things are settled? You're not going
S1: to go out on a lecture night and say, oh,
S1: we've just stitched up a deal. So that's far fetched.
S2: They did in 99.
S1: Okay. All right. I want to hear. Yeah, I actually
S1: do want to hear more from Brad. Okay, good. Which
S1: bit do you want to hear? He's going to go
S1: find some questions.
S2: Yeah. Um.
S1: Do you think that you went backwards in the election
S1: campaign from where you started it or improved your position?
S2: Uh, jumping ahead in the script here, but we went, um,
S2: forwards and then, uh, went backwards on the last week, uh,
S2: directly as a result of the launch of the AFL
S2: team on the Monday night.
S1: You went backwards because of the launch of the AFL team? Yes.
S1: Despite being the party that's been the strongest supporter of
S1: the AFL team.
S2: Explains. Might be revelation to you guys. Not to not
S2: to David because he agrees with me. The stadium. I've
S2: yet the the biggest pile of stinking poo in this state.
S2: The stadium politically really. Uh, and very refreshing. We spent
S2: the you know, this has been my view all along.
S2: I think the record will show this. Um, of course,
S2: we spent the entire campaign variously trying to polish that
S2: turd or to cover it up and disguise it with
S2: various other pieces of shiny announcement. So it wasn't talked about.
S1: So therefore you don't buy in to some people's view,
S1: and certainly not mine, that the overwhelming support for the
S1: team equates to an overwhelming support for the stadium.
S2: Well, no. In fact, again, our vote went backwards in
S2: the last week because what that launch did was bring
S2: to the fore that issue. And as a result, many,
S2: many more people went to the ballot box thinking about
S2: that rather than thinking about what we wanted to talk about,
S2: was think about just a majority government.
S1: And is there any chance in the world your vote
S1: went backwards in the last week because last Sunday you
S1: came out and Undemocratically said, if you disagree with the
S1: Liberal Party, you'll be kicked out of Parliament. No, really
S1: got just wall to wall. Great feedback on that idea. Um,
S1: when will we see that enshrined?
S2: Well, when it passes the parliament, I presume. Alex.
S1: Are you going to stick with that one?
S2: The entire 2030 strong plan cap here.
S1: Includes.
S2: Non-negotiable.
S1: You couldn't. Includes making people cap in hand. The plan?
S2: Well, um.
S1: What will be the threshold when Eric Abetz votes votes
S1: against conversion conversion therapy or I think.
S2: Yeah, that is a very long bow, Alex. I don't
S2: think it was made clear in the campaign that that
S2: is not the threshold. The threshold is easy for you,
S2: I don't know, quit your party to join another party
S2: or be an independent, which is what happened.
S1: And that's it. I hate to agree, but I will
S1: on the stadium. I'll offer a piece of weak data.
S2: Yes, I've got a weak correlation.
S1: Yeah, the swing against the liberals was strongest. The further
S1: you got from the stadium seems harder. Wow. So, um,
S1: in Lyons, the swing against the liberals. Tell me if
S1: I've done the maths wrong. 13.6%. Um, in Barada in
S1: in bass 21.85%. Correct. That's where the alternate games would
S1: be played. A stadium wasn't built where the.
S2: Stadium wasn't being built. One of.
S1: The point. Yeah. And in Braddon, 11.9. That confounds the
S1: the sort of straight line the further you get from home.
S1: There was a.
S2: Premier factor.
S1: There. The less the stadium there was um, you know
S1: whereas Ian Clarke and Franklin minus four minus eight.
S2: There you.
S1: Go. There's your, there's your. Um, there's some dialogue I
S1: can add.
S2: To that writing style, uh, which came in from the
S2: field via a candidates that it was the number one
S2: issue on the doors north of Baghdad.
S1: That's right. It's funny. I mean, I got anecdotal evidence
S1: it was a problem for labor on the doors down
S1: here as well. So maybe the both things can be true.
S1: I think it was a problem for labor.
S2: There's another position that was their problem.
S1: Well, they didn't they certainly didn't benefit from their anti-stadium stance. No,
S1: they didn't benefit. So what does that mean then. That.
S2: Well, well hang on, we'll come to that. But um,
S2: to be clear, um, it was the biggest single drag
S2: on the Liberal campaign was the stadium. There was this
S2: this election campaign was about one thing. It was the stadium.
S2: It just wasn't said out loud. But it was the
S2: main issue in this campaign. Two parties that gained votes
S2: and gained seats were clearly against the stadium, the Lambies
S2: and the Greens. And you cannot argue with that. Yep.
S2: If the Labor Party had have had a clear, strong
S2: position against it from the start, if Rebecca White had
S2: stood on Macquarie Point every single day and said, I
S2: hate this thing, and then every second day said, I'm
S2: going to build this hospital instead of that thing. Labor
S2: would be in government today.
S1: Let me be the first to say correlation is not causation,
S1: but there is a correlation there. Um, you know, there
S1: could be other reasons that that could be true. And
S1: that's the main.
S2: That's the main campaign.
S1: Yeah.
S2: That's the biggest single drag. And as I say, the
S2: evidence was that our campaign, uh, went well when they
S2: weren't talking about the stadium. We're talking about it. It
S2: went bad.
S1: Well, that's very interesting. And that'll have huge ramifications, I imagine. No.
S1: How so? Well, why does it make people very nervous that.
S1: Are on the right track. They're going to forge ahead
S1: with it. The stadium will be built.
S2: The bizarre thing is, and you know, I'm the one
S2: that said it would never get built. It will now
S2: get built because it has survived. The government has survived.
S2: The only government in favorite party has survived, and it
S2: will now get built.
S1: And they'll survive by building a coalition with a party
S1: that's against it.
S2: Are they? Not so much. Troy Pfitzner, for example, wasn't
S2: against it, nor was Jacqui Lambie today. And Jacqui said she.
S1: Reminds us.
S2: It reminds.
S1: A skeptic.
S2: Yes, that's a difference to being an opposition, isn't it? And,
S2: you know, do the math. Um, was David Byrne's position.
S1: So you think it will be built? Will it be
S1: built at Macquarie Point, or is there any appetite for
S1: looking at this second option? No, no, it'll.
S2: Be built at Macquarie Point as planned. A government has survived.
S2: The stadium has survived. It got a big scare. The
S2: government got a big scare as a result of it.
S2: But it will now be built and I fully expect, um,
S2: the Labor Party, uh, to have a position on the
S2: stadium under their new leader, and I expect that position
S2: will be that they will support it, but criticise it
S2: as to how much it costs and how many bricks
S2: aren't laid on it. That's what I would do.
S1: I agree, I think that's where they'll end up and
S1: that'll be healthy.
S2: So, Mr. O'Brien, you can breathe easy. Save the stadium
S2: on the tape.
S1: Oh thanks, Brad. Goodness me. I mean, they're talking about
S1: who to name the first grandstand after. Maybe the Stansfield
S1: wing's got a not much of.
S2: An AFL player.
S1: That couldn't smash save the team. Listen, let's call it
S1: the cup of. What a hero. Well, my.
S2: Point is, the government being re-elected has saved the team.
S2: If any other result, the team was dead. There was
S2: no doubt about that.
S1: All right. Well, I reckon talking about the stadiums as
S1: toxic for focus as it is. So maybe let's move
S1: on a little bit. So. So, Brad, there was a
S1: lot of eyebrows raised over the Lambie website. What's your
S1: what's your view on that one?
S2: I mean, you know, much ado about nothing. I mean,
S2: sort of these kind of websites are passé for political
S2: campaigns going back sort of to the invention of the
S2: internet under Malcolm Turnbull. Um, you know, obviously Senator Lambie
S2: got a little bit upset about it. But, you know,
S2: you know, she did tell the perimeters, stick the stadium
S2: up his bum. That was okay. You know, it's an
S2: election campaign.
S1: Don't you tell people that you shouldn't bring attention to
S1: your political opponents. I thought that was one of your
S1: fundamental rules.
S2: Why did the, uh, Lambie's poll there, David, in your
S2: little thing there across the state? Well, it.
S1: Depends on are you think you knocked them down a
S1: peg or two? Well, what.
S2: Was the state.
S1: .76?
S2: What was what was the polling state of the campaign
S2: for lamps.
S1: So you don't think they hands on which, which polls.
S2: But I think any poll had them as low as 6.7%.
S1: No. It had them in double figures if I remember rightly. Okay. Yeah. Okay.
S1: Tick that. Another tick. Sam, what about any regrets from
S1: the campaign? Brad. Anything at.
S2: All? I would like to win a few more seats,
S2: but at the end of the day, as I said
S2: at the start, um, as long as you get enough
S2: to form a government, then you've done your job.
S1: I think there's an aviation saying any crash, any landing
S1: you walk away from is a good one. You know,
S1: like that was a crash landing. That was, you know,
S1: and asterisk Parliament hasn't resumed. We saw what the minority.
S1: What hey, the liberals went in minority over the last
S1: 12 months, and it wasn't pretty. Um, your potential coalition
S1: partners are very unknown. Um, you know, this this could
S1: not this could not go well. Well, this might be one.
S1: This might be a poisoned chalice. Well, that's that's such.
S2: That's a enthusiasm. That's a different argument. But, you know,
S2: I've been listening to the forecast for the last five
S2: weeks with you guys telling us how Crépel going to go,
S2: and we're going to lose.
S1: Hang on a minute. I had you on 16. Oh
S1: you did. That's seats at the end, Dave. And change to.
S2: Dave is going to change around on that last poll
S2: that was now out of date which.
S1: And which I suspect was.
S2: But I'll return to my central particularly accurate, you know,
S2: in election campaigns you either win or you lose. Um,
S2: and I always prefer to be on the winning side
S2: of election campaigns. And I think fairness, if you ask
S2: anyone in the Labor Party whether they'd rather be, uh, on,
S2: on this side or the other side, I think know
S2: their answer.
S1: Have you lumbered yourself with way too many promises now?
S1: Like there's a long list of things you promised, both
S1: in terms of things you're going to build, things you're
S1: going to do, like the Utas promise. Have you given
S1: yourself an unem an impossible list of things to now achieve?
S2: Well, no. What I think, and this is how the
S2: government is different to the previous one. The government now
S2: has a clear agenda for the next four years, which
S2: it didn't have before. And we might recall when Peter
S2: Gowan called a snap election in 21, he really didn't
S2: have any sort of agenda, just sort of campaigned on.
S2: I saved you all from Covid. Then Jeremy came in
S2: and picked up whatever Peter didn't have, and there was
S2: no clear plan or agenda. So there's now a very
S2: different you know, you're going to be seeing a lot
S2: more of this 2030 strong plan over the next few years.
S1: Are we lucky? So let's let's just do a bit
S1: of things in it. Yeah. Let's do let's just do
S1: a little bit of round the grounds, a little bit
S1: of winners and losers. Shall we just go through some.
S2: Any more questions?
S1: I just one more for Brad. All right. Because this
S1: is from a keen listener. You're obviously in today a friend.
S1: You're obviously in today. And I'm very pleased you are
S1: because it would be a very boring show without you.
S1: But you're going to you're going to have a role
S1: in helping them nut out how to make the crossbench
S1: work over the next few weeks.
S2: No. My contract, our contract once contract ended on election
S2: night or yesterday. And, um, I'm just a humble member
S2: of the Liberal Party now.
S1: Well, I think your comments on the stadium might suggest that,
S1: you know, they were quite refreshing, but, um, but you're
S1: obviously you can pick up the phone if they need you,
S1: I guess. Oh, well.
S2: Always I'm always here for, you know, want to seek
S2: my views?
S1: Seek your counsel.
S2: It doesn't mean they'll take notice of it, though, as
S2: I think we've seen over the last few years.
S1: All right, let's just do let's just do a quick
S1: round the grounds, talk a few about a few of
S1: the winners and the losers just out of it. Uh,
S1: I couldn't, uh, not let you have your opportunity to
S1: have a chat about Turkey's bread. What's your view? Oh, well.
S2: It's not much more to say, really, other than I'm
S2: a completely unsurprised. And I didn't have them even getting
S2: close to elected in my pre-election predictions.
S1: Well, it was a mixed result. John Tucker on the
S1: count so far, half his primary vote from the previous election,
S1: Lara Alexander has actually tripled her.
S2: So she got six votes.
S1: Yeah.
S2: I mean it's a low base.
S1: No, no, I, um, you know, just by way of observation, the.
S2: Yeah. Like so less like in statistic.
S1: The data throws up some interesting, interesting results. But, uh,
S1: they both put their name up 1447 as of today
S1: and both put their name up for, uh, for judgment
S1: from the people, Brad, which neither you or I have
S1: ever done. So I think they deserve some credit there.
S2: Again. Um, I'm sorry, I do not in any way,
S2: shape or form ascribe to disloyalty.
S1: I'm just trying to give you a life raft here.
S1: No you're not. Look, I saw.
S2: Mr. Tucker on election night, and, um, you know, we
S2: had a pleasant conversation. Um, and away from politics, I've
S2: got no problem with him in the political field, you know? Um.
S1: No. Yeah. No, I mean, I'm not saying what they
S1: did was right. I think, um, they caused the state
S1: an unnecessary amount of turmoil. And I think they could
S1: have actually made a virtue out of their principled position
S1: by staying in the tent and making some noise and
S1: being seen as a agitators for change. Um, and I
S1: got it wrong on John Tucker. I thought that he would, um,
S1: do well because of the name recognition and because of
S1: that primary vote last time. And I got that one wrong,
S1: one of many that I got wrong. Ah, well, you know,
S1: it was brave.
S2: At least in electing Lohberger.
S1: Yeah, well that's right. Exactly right. I think that was
S1: my classic file. But look, uh, well, we were both
S1: wrong on Saheki two. We were.
S2: And, um, I'm big enough to admit that I thought
S2: she would get back, too, so I was surprised. Thank you.
S1: Yeah. So her vote halved. Do we have any understanding
S1: as why that might occurred? What's the sense?
S2: Well, I think the simple sense was, um, that last
S2: time she got a lot of liberal ex-liberal votes in
S2: Sandy Bay. And once she became the deputy mayor of Glenorchy,
S2: those votes evaporated. Okay. And I might point out, at
S2: the risk of again copping a a tongue lashing, that, uh,
S2: Miss Hickey was for the utas move.
S1: And there was more competition, too. Yeah, that's a good point.
S1: But there was, you know, Ben Leuenberger didn't get elected,
S1: but he got a nice little chunk of votes. Yep.
S1: There was a lot more competition in the Sue Hickey
S1: sort of pool of independents, you know, integrity, that sort
S1: of thing. So okay. So Dean young we've lost Dean
S1: I think we finished.
S2: And Clark, anything else you want to talk about in
S2: Clark since we're there?
S1: Well the Greens won two and I didn't expect that.
S2: No.
S1: Agreed. Yeah that's a that's a big effort. Uh, even
S1: with the seven seat electorate, to win two is a
S1: big effort. And that's testament I think. You know the
S1: Greens lost Cassy O'Connor and you thought oh this might
S1: stall them. But certainly we thought it might make them
S1: less effective in Parliament. Well credit where it's due I
S1: think actually going from a leader to a real team
S1: of uh Rosalie and vicar and they do things together
S1: and they, they tag team in on different issues. I
S1: think that's worked well. And Howe and Helen Burnett will
S1: make a good member of Parliament. She's solid. She's been
S1: around many years. Knows the city inside out. Yeah.
S2: Look I mean the Greens I think actually ran a
S2: very smart campaign that they, you know, they they worked
S2: very hard to mainstream themselves in inverted commas. I even
S2: saw a, a a claim which put all my claims
S2: to shame when they told Sean Ford at The Advocate
S2: that they were pro-mining, uh, but they were very, very
S2: focused on that. And apart from Bob Brown organizing one protest,
S2: which I'm sure that he was going to do, whether
S2: or not they liked it, um, they did a very
S2: good job at sort of mainstreaming themselves.
S1: Now, did my, uh, story that had the TCC encouraging
S1: people to vote green, Liberal or Labor. Did that make
S1: it to the level 11? And you got any comments
S1: on that?
S2: Say it raised as many eyebrows in level 11, but
S2: in the, uh, campaign HQ as it apparently did here
S2: in the last font Cat podcast. Yes, um, certainly.
S1: Did in this office.
S2: That's quite, um, can you believe.
S1: On the last day or second last day of a campaign,
S1: the chief business lobby would do anything but campaign for
S1: minority government or as a business? Sorry, minority government?
S2: Well, as a businessman, no.
S1: I found it surprising.
S2: Oh, I found it extraordinary.
S1: So I found it refreshing, but I found it surprising.
S2: Yeah. I don't think, um, many businesses would have found
S2: it refreshing.
S1: Well, I'm not a small business owner, obviously. Well, my
S1: golf videos don't make me any money. So to round
S1: out Clark. So Ella had topped the poll for labor
S1: fine effort. I've got to say beat Josh Willey. I
S1: was a bit surprised by that, but glad to see
S1: it for Ella's sake. And in terms of the liberals,
S1: some Iraqis did very well. Madeleine, I think, got a
S1: bit of a scare from Marcus Verm, but I think
S1: I've been sort of predicting that one, that Marcus is
S1: well known in the community and did really well for himself.
S1: How close is that going to be, do you think? Ah, look,
S1: it's going to be reasonably close. Marcus worked his tail
S1: off throughout the campaign and Madeleine.
S2: And David go through spreadsheets, but I think Madeleine will
S2: be pretty safely home.
S1: Yeah, yeah. Um, I'll tell you a bet I made
S1: on the 15th of February that you'll laugh at because
S1: Julie and Amos put out the former labor MP, put
S1: out a newsletter suggesting that he thought that Stuart Benson
S1: might gazump El-haddad and become the second labor member in Clark.
S1: And I sent him a little text at 11:12 a.m.
S1: that said, if El-haddad doesn't get elected, I'll eat my car.
S1: So anyway, I don't have to have it. I don't
S1: have to have a Skoda for dinner tonight. You are a.
S2: Known fan of Stuart Benson's, so you know.
S1: Well, I was she got a substantially bigger vote than
S1: Stuart Benson. Look, I'm not going to bag anyone who
S1: put their name up. I thought, Ella, go on. You
S1: did very well. Elliott is underestimated. She is by because
S1: she is a perfect labor candidate for her electorate in
S1: a different electorate. Maybe not, but in Clark, she knows it. She's. Progressive.
S1: She's not boisterous, she works hard and I think was proven,
S1: but I would have guessed Josh Willie would have got
S1: more votes as well. And he did. And so that's
S1: a big win to L.A., even though the vote wasn't,
S1: you know, in the stratosphere are still pretty solid. I
S1: think L.A. should reflect on what that means for her
S1: and what it. Ellen barletta well, well, I'm just saying. Well,
S1: here we go. Well, I'm just saying, when she walks
S1: into the room, L.A. is, uh, fairly meek in terms
S1: of as a politician. She's not that kind of person
S1: that's aggressive and puts forward, um, a huge amount of
S1: sort of political ambition. She just wants to get on
S1: and do things. But with that kind of vote really
S1: shows that she's got, I think, real potential politically astute.
S1: I agree. That's exactly right. So all right.
S2: Let's just keep it moving.
S1: Franklin. Yeah. So Franklin, what do we make of Franklin?
S1: David O'Byrne did very well. I thought Dean Winter, I think.
S2: Franklin went according to the script. Yes.
S1: Didn't it. Yeah. Yeah, I think it did. I mean,
S1: the greens got a little bit close to two, but
S1: that sort of settled down. Yeah. I think that was
S1: probably the easiest to predict. Yeah. David O'byrne's vote was
S1: pretty solid. Well, um, my reckoning he was he got
S1: the strongest vote of any independent in Tasmania at the,
S1: at the polls. He got more than Kristy Johnston, didn't he?
S1: So did he did. So so what I'm getting at
S1: is hard work pays off for David. Um, and I
S1: think that's been well recognized in the electorate. Um, and
S1: it does highlight that when you're an independent, just how
S1: hard it is to mobilize enough votes to get elected,
S1: because look at Dave's profile, look at what he's done,
S1: and there he is. So that was great. And I
S1: think we'll see Meg Brown in Parliament. Yes. Yeah Toby
S1: Thorpe's a chance. Um, because he, he did share that um, uh,
S1: sign with Dean. So maybe some people will preference him.
S1: But Meg Brown, uh, got elected and I think, um,
S1: that might be because they had a lot of men
S1: in Franklin. Meg Brown gave people an option that wasn't
S1: a white man. And, um, yeah, I think she worked
S1: very hard, obviously backed by the unions. Well, and, and
S1: I interviewed I'm not interviewed her, but I met her
S1: for the first time last week. I think she's got
S1: a lot to bring to the Parliament, so that'll be good. Yeah.
S1: I assume.
S2: Your letter to Carol.
S1: Beach. I'm pretty somewhere along the lines. Yeah, I think so. Uh,
S1: it's I think, and I've got to give Brad the
S1: points on Eric Abetz because even with Jacquie Petrusma in
S1: the race, he got a big vote, bigger primary vote
S1: than I thought. So I'll give Brad the nod on
S1: that one. He might have got 10,000 if it wasn't
S1: for voting without her, but it wasn't for Jacquie Petrusma
S1: and Nick Street, who you know, I'm a fan of,
S1: and I gave him my votes in the player of
S1: the year award.
S2: Are you going to say give him your votes on Saturday?
S1: Yeah. No, I'm not saying who I voted for on Saturday. Uh,
S1: that'll go with Nick.
S2: Got one of the seven, surely.
S1: Well, you may well say that anyway, um, I, I
S1: I'll tell you. I'll say this. I certainly sprayed my
S1: vote around on Saturday. I went for people and not parties. Correct. Anyway,
S1: I'm surprised he didn't get a bigger vote. Um, and
S1: I guess that's because he's pretty low profile. And those
S1: of us who know him and work with him, uh,
S1: see his huge value. But and I guess a lot
S1: of more conservative liberal voters in that part of the world.
S1: But anyway, I hope he gets reelected. It'd be a
S1: real shame if he didn't. I'm sure he's fine. I mean,
S1: they got 2.6. They'll get three seats.
S2: Unfortunately, Dean's going to miss out.
S1: Yeah, it looks like Dean Young's gone, which is a
S1: real shame. I had a lot of time for Dean,
S1: as you know. And I hope we see him somewhere
S1: doing something in the future.
S2: Certainly a hare-clark resignation.
S1: Yeah. That's it. Very true. All right. Very good result
S1: for the Greens in Franklin. Yeah. Rosalie Woodruff got a
S1: quota for the first time. Yeah. Um, and you can
S1: see in those numbers the effect of a very good
S1: election strategy of nominating a lead candidate repeats itself right
S1: across the electorates where they've done well. You have a
S1: lead candidate who's done very, very well and a bunch
S1: of other people who harvested some votes. But that lead
S1: candidate here, I think, is going to catch on among
S1: the the miners. I think the Jacqui Lambie Network will
S1: learn that one for next time. Yeah. Um interesting. Also
S1: down the ticket, the local network result. I think Martine
S1: Delaney was actually you probably need to ask them. Um,
S1: Martine Delaney ran a very energetic campaign that I don't
S1: think would be a 497 votes was not possibly the
S1: desired result the local network has. Possibly already peaked, but
S1: we'll see. You know, they might be around for a while.
S1: It's a long term set.
S2: Leanne mentioned.
S1: She still. I'm not sure if who's behind it. Certainly
S1: it's not a party. I just took a glance across.
S1: I think you're either a party or you're independents. And
S1: I mean, that may be tested with the way the
S1: Jacqui Lambie candidates, um, perform. It's a very crowded. There
S1: were lots of independents, a crowded field. It's hard to
S1: make yourself stand. Well, there was a there was a
S1: great Koudelka cartoon going back quite a few months ago,
S1: you know. Are you an independent? Independent? Or are you
S1: a former liberal independent? Well, we are I.
S2: Mean, I know we've got time pressure syndicate moving, but
S2: I mean, I think the one of the biggest take
S2: outs in the election, apart from the result obviously, was
S2: that the independents did not an independent independents did not
S2: achieve the results expected to to up. And everyone was
S2: thinking there might be 4 or 5.
S1: You know, I think a lot of people went for
S1: the Greens because like you said, they had a pretty
S1: clear campaign and even, you know, even having a policy
S1: like the one they had on footy, you know, at
S1: least that's clear. Yeah. You know, rather than sitting on
S1: the fence. So and you knew where they stood. Let's
S1: just quickly round out the grounds here. So let's go
S1: to bass. And I got bass badly wrong. Yeah. Did you.
S1: Okay I had the libs getting four and their vote
S1: went backwards big time. It did 2,022% or 21 point something.
S1: Uh no gut won. Yeah. No gut won. Hurt them
S1: big time. Rob Fares I think last time people from
S1: all sides of politics must have voted for Peter Gutwein. Well,
S1: because of his performance on Covid. I think you're right.
S1: I think Gutwein had huge support with him. And without
S1: that and with the stadium issue, they mentioned it again. Um,
S1: I think they were working against them in, in um,
S1: bass 20 2014, 57% of the vote, 20 1858, 20 2159, 20, 2438. Yeah,
S1: that's a big drop off. Did I mention the stadium? Yeah.
S1: So you think that what about Michael Ferguson popularity Brad
S1: I mean he his vote. Yeah. He'd tell you pretty solid. Yeah.
S1: But not as much as he used to get. He
S1: used to get a.
S2: Not so sure about.
S1: That 2014. He got a whopping big vote I think.
S2: I think Michael's always been a strong vote getter and
S2: consistently strong. But he, um, he has never been sort
S2: of in Peter Gutwein. Stratosphere.
S1: Oh he was he beat Peter Gutwein won election. Yeah.
S2: But not when Peter Gutwein got. Yeah. Not 25.
S1: No okay. What I, what I was interested to see
S1: was Michelle O'Byrne polls. So. Well I've got to say
S1: she beat Janey uh, on primary votes, which I was
S1: surprised by. Yeah. I thought Janey would, just because of
S1: the way she's been more present. And, you know, Michelle
S1: was dealt a pretty tough hand in the last term.
S1: Isn't it interesting? Ella wins the vote down here in
S1: the South. Michelle wins it in bass. Sort of saying
S1: something about where the labor votes sitting. Right. Yeah. Yeah.
S1: Well I mean she was sidelined in the campaign. Obviously
S1: the situation with David O'Byrne made the last term really
S1: tricky for her. I mean, you know, torn between family
S1: and a party as it must be a tough position.
S1: And then to lose her dear mum. Yeah. Um, and
S1: then get a vote like that. I think she deserves
S1: all the respect in the world. Well.
S2: And, David, I know you've got your spreadsheet. There is.
S2: Is your favorite candidate Doctor Slaton going to get well?
S1: And Kevin Bonham's favorite candidate.
S2: Kevin Bonham, was on a personal crusade on that one,
S2: wasn't he?
S1: On the count at the moment, Simon Wood is slightly
S1: ahead on the printout that I've got here. 1809 primary votes. Uh,
S1: Doctor Slaton 1648.
S2: So you would think would would be favored as income.
S2: But but think so. She's all that free publicity she
S2: got from the media has certainly helped.
S1: Her out in that to be very confident in any way.
S1: And I was right about the Greens. They got elected
S1: pretty comfortably there. So there was a tick. My my
S1: call on the Greens was better than my call and
S1: some other things. But um, and a couple of independents
S1: got a nice little chunk of votes in bass.
S2: Not Miss Alexander though.
S1: Not Miss Alexander. No, I got more than a thousand.
S1: Tubby summer. Greg. Tubby. Somewhat, uh, local artist. I'm going
S1: to track him down because he got Greg Tubby Quinn 1528.
S1: That is not bad. Quite good. Yeah, yeah. So someone should, uh.
S1: I'm going to go and do an interview with Greg
S1: Tubby Quinn, because that's more than just a oh, well,
S1: random amount for independent because he's got such a likeable name.
S1: You know, Greg know he must know a lot of people.
S1: I think that's that's an awesome result. So there's a
S1: lot I reckon the bloke who puts tattoos on folk
S1: in Launceston probably does know. You know. That's a good point. Oh.
S1: All right, uh, let's get up to Brad. And what
S1: do we think of the result? And Brad. And it
S1: was quite a strong result for the Premier. I mean,
S1: I think.
S2: Broadly again the Braddon result went according to the book
S2: and it will be four four, two one, which I
S2: think pretty much everyone wrote before the campaign. Uh, on
S2: day one, I think.
S1: And who do we think the one is? Is that Garland?
S2: No no no. Be lambie it'll be be four. So
S2: the new liberal be Giovanni Giovanna Simpson. Yeah.
S1: I got that one right, Deputy Mayor.
S2: I think. Yes you did. And the. And then it'll
S2: be one of the one of the labs. Not sure
S2: which one. Okay.
S1: Deprived myself seven out of seven by saying Craig cuts
S1: would be the Lambie. Yeah. Because do you know what
S1: cuts was my house at primary school whereas the Vale
S1: primary schools. I thought, well that's a great north west
S1: name but he's a hard he got he came third.
S1: My man came third. All right. All right a couple
S1: of observations in Brad and for the Aficionado's Craig Garland
S1: Outpoll Roger Jentsch I think that'll be corrected on reference.
S1: Always be saying Roger needs a more flamboyant hairstyle. Is
S1: that what you imagine? That change comes back. Inge comes
S1: back to Parliament with hair down to his, you know,
S1: and you can really starkly see the payoff of that
S1: green strategy there. They've again accounted on 2200 votes. Brad
S1: is not fertile fields for the Greens, but, um, you know,
S1: and then the Lambie Network people all within 100 votes
S1: of each other. So that Robson rotation effect. Yeah. People
S1: are going 123123123 don't have the Camberley. Right. Well yeah.
S1: Um and whereas the Greens are promoting one candidate I
S1: think that's a winning strategy. And I think you'll see
S1: that from the Garland. Should be very pleased with his time. Um,
S1: that's pretty that's a lot of, um, people to put
S1: number one in the box next to him. He should um,
S1: I know he hasn't got elected yet, but, um, compared
S1: to some of the other independents.
S2: No, he did well with less publicity.
S1: I think he did very well.
S2: He will. Well, he might get there one day.
S1: I think his highest vote was about 10% in a
S1: Senate election. One. Yeah. I thought well, in that by election. Yeah. Yeah.
S1: All right. So let's just quickly do lines and then
S1: we'll move on to a couple more things and round
S1: it out. So lines are Janey Hallet I think did
S1: really well. She came second. Second most popular libs beat Schultz,
S1: which I think was interesting. I didn't I didn't think
S1: that was going to be the case. But guy top
S1: hollow for the liberals. Obviously Rebecca did very well for
S1: labor in terms of her vote. And we'll see a
S1: return of Chen as well.
S2: So I think lines again pretty much go in descriptor.
S2: I don't know though I had.
S1: Tucker instead of Lambie once.
S2: According to.
S1: So I mean.
S2: Do you know, um, this Tabitha Badger. She said yes.
S1: I've met Tabitha.
S2: Likely sort.
S1: Yeah. She ran a great campaign. She did. She's um.
S1: And not your. Well, no one's your typical green, but she's, um,
S1: motor racing fan. Head of the Wilderness Society, wasn't she? Yeah.
S2: Motor racing fan. As a petrol.
S1: I don't. I'm not here to defend my ID. Just
S1: saying electric cars. I'm just saying I can do it.
S1: I talk to her on election night, and the Greens
S1: are very lucky to have. She was a very articulate
S1: good in the media. Um, she'll be hard to dislodge,
S1: especially if we stay at 35 seats. So. And I
S1: warned her there will be some badger puns on the news.
S2: She's probably had them a whole lot.
S1: Yeah, no, nothing she wouldn't have heard before. Um, shooters, farmers? Fishers, um,
S1: not seen or heard much of during the campaign. Still
S1: get a few votes, don't they? Still get a few votes,
S1: but go from being the fourth force in Tasmanian politics
S1: to the fifth. Lambie has supplanted them. So that's that
S1: bold claim, which I had to check, um, that they
S1: were the fourth Force. Well, speaking as a publisher of
S1: a number of rural and regional papers, I've got to
S1: say the Hunter shooters and Fishers were very prevalent with
S1: our papers in terms of putting forward policies and having
S1: conversations with our staff. I found it very.
S2: Dedicated fan base. They do. Yeah.
S1: Yeah. No, it's a solid constituency. Yeah. It is. You know,
S1: and they they do do well in some elections in
S1: some seats. All right. So there's a couple of couple
S1: of sort of issues. We just need to round up
S1: before we call it a day. So obviously Rebecca White
S1: uh is currently considering her options moving forward.
S2: Well what are they, resign or resign?
S1: I think that's probably the case, but what's your take, AJ?
S1: What do you think? Oh, I think Rebecca White will resign.
S1: But I think the way labor handled it yesterday was
S1: so unnecessary. Like, even if you wanted to do, you know,
S1: the first bit and sort of say that okay we
S1: lost uh, we're not going to try and scramble together
S1: a deal with the greens. That's fine. That's fine. I
S1: agree with Brad. You had to do that. There was
S1: agitating yesterday against Rebecca White that I just thought was unnecessary. Like,
S1: just let the dust settle. I thought yesterday the story
S1: was going to be how can Jeremy Rockliff form government.
S1: But again, labor found a way to make it about them.
S1: And I think, you know, you didn't have to wait
S1: until all the votes were counted. But wait a little
S1: while just for the dust to settle. And then but anyway,
S1: people are very impatient. But I think, yeah, she will
S1: resign and it will be a contest between Josh Willey
S1: and Dean Winter. And then if it's a they can't
S1: work out between themselves, it'll go to a, you know,
S1: a statewide rank and file battle. You know, like we
S1: saw with Albanese and Shorten at the federal level. I
S1: think they'll do will.
S2: Do their best to avoid that, wouldn't they?
S1: I'd think they would. But I've had it put to
S1: me that that might be just what the Labor Party
S1: needs a chance to actually reconnect with their voters and
S1: find out why they have been.
S2: For the last time they did.
S1: That, stagnant for three elections in a row.
S2: As elected, David O'Byrne and the parliamentary wing, uh, contrived
S2: to knife him within two.
S1: Well, no they didn't. Oh, that's right, they did do it.
S1: That went against broad didn't it. Sorry. Sorry about that.
S1: And I'm just wondering, uh. That'll see. Josh. Will, I
S1: forgot they did it already. Yeah. That's right. That took
S1: three weeks. As I recall, there was a postal ballot,
S1: which is not not the way to run a ballot
S1: these days. I would be getting cracking. If there is
S1: to be a change, the time is bad, doesn't it? Yeah.
S1: Parliament's going to be back soon. You want to have
S1: someone who's ready established they could gone.
S2: Through the in as is holding. That's right.
S1: They did that now. Yeah it was changes but the
S1: clock's ticking. They're going to want to get on with
S1: that because there's a lot to be done. Well there's
S1: got there's a lot of bloodletting that needs to occur
S1: in labour that's for sure. And hopefully a new leadership
S1: will be a good thing. And hopefully it's Dean Winter
S1: for what it's worth. That's my $0.10 worth here.
S2: From David on on Labor and Miss White.
S1: What?
S2: Well, just wondering what you think.
S1: Um, I think she's been a good leader. I think
S1: she's been let down by two things. I think the team,
S1: you know, there's been some key strategic decisions, um, that
S1: have been that have been fumbled along the way. And
S1: I think the, you know, the it's the team in
S1: all of the, um, in all of the surveys I've seen,
S1: I don't know whether Alex will back me up here,
S1: but she's performed strongly in the preferred leadership stakes. She
S1: she wins every debate. She performs well whenever she appears
S1: in public. She's got great community connections. The puzzle, the
S1: great puzzle of Rebecca's leadership is why, um, you know,
S1: she's had three election losses in a row, and I
S1: put it down to the team and the. And the administration.
S1: I mean, really, um, the, uh, you know, we don't
S1: see enough. There's some very talented people within the ranks
S1: of labor who we never see or hear from Ella Haddad,
S1: as you say. Um, you know, a really good politician,
S1: really thoughtful, um, great labor values. Um, you know, Sarah
S1: Lovell established herself as a great spokesperson on health. Um,
S1: you know, haven't haven't seen much of her. So I
S1: just think the failings that labor have go a lot
S1: further than Rebecca White's leadership. I think she should be
S1: she should be proud of the work that she's done. But,
S1: you know, um, that's politics. Someone wins, someone loses, and
S1: that's that's hard. And, you know. And here we ain't.
S1: Brad's about to tell you that a change of leaders
S1: go dramatically improved Labor's laverstock.
S2: I mean, I couldn't disagree with you more, David. Um,
S2: it's always down to the leader. Um, he's been a
S2: great leader. That's taken them to three losses in a row. Um, sorry.
S2: The facts do not support that. She might be a
S2: nice person. She is a nice person. Um, but, um,
S2: there's there's a difference between being a nice person and
S2: winning elections. And that's what leaders of political parties are,
S2: I think. I can't argue with those. So, I mean,
S2: I think I think the reality is, um, if labor,
S2: they should never have brought it back. Um, when, uh,
S2: the knifing of of David occurred, they should have gone
S2: to someone else. Um, it was a retrograde step, and
S2: they are now paying the price for that. They have wasted,
S2: wasted an election. Um, sadly, sadly for them. And happily
S2: for for my side of politics. Um, look, what will
S2: she do next? I don't know, but I did notice
S2: in in the, um, in the, uh, Sky news, um, debate,
S2: which seemed to have more greens inside the room than
S2: outside the room protesting, for the record, um, that she
S2: was asked by, I think, Kieran whether she would rule out, uh,
S2: federal lines and pointedly, in my view, did not say no.
S1: Oh, no, I didn't know. She laughed that off.
S2: Yeah, yeah, that's different to saying no. Go back and
S2: check the transcript. I said I wouldn't rule that out.
S1: She also said in the debate that the little fat fella, um,
S1: compared that she would serve a full term. Um, I
S1: hope that I hope that the, the Labor Party and
S1: there's already some worrying signs from this point of view,
S1: but I hope they don't blast her out because they
S1: need her. Like I agree with Brad, she has to
S1: take some responsibility. She hasn't been as an effective leader
S1: as we thought that she would be. But before that,
S1: the reason that she was the only choice to replace
S1: Brian Greene because she was an incredibly effective shadow health minister.
S1: So if they, um, disrespect her legacy and blast her out,
S1: I think they will miss her sorely if.
S2: She's lost three.
S1: Well, let's respect that. Well, because you can. Well, because
S1: you can be unkind to someone.
S3: Well, look, I think you've got.
S2: I think, but I think she'll end up in federal
S2: politics for all this time.
S1: All right, well, that'll all unfold in front of us
S1: a little fold over the next couple of weeks in
S1: terms of what's going on. One other quick thing I see,
S1: Jenny Gail has retired. The timing of that. Can anyone
S1: shed any shed, any light on that interesting point? Have
S1: a good sign when someone retires at 4:00 in the afternoon.
S1: You know, when it's announced at 4:00, especially the weekend
S1: after an election has been won and run. So yeah.
S1: Very interesting. Brad, you got any insights?
S2: Just a mere private citizen as of 9 a.m. this morning. Batshit.
S1: What will that mean for some of the inquiries that
S1: she's been asked to give evidence to? We still able
S1: to hear from former public servants?
S2: I don't Parliament has has has strong powers. I stand
S2: to be corrected.
S1: I don't think state Parliament has the power to compel
S1: a person who is not. They can bloody well they
S1: can compel, but whether they will, whether they. Well, if
S1: you just state or overseas. Well it's the it's the
S1: one power the parliament hats they can compel you to
S1: appear before a, before a, before a committee. Right. Someone
S1: if they were all nice. That seemed to be a
S1: lot of effort to go to. It's a very powerful job. Um,
S1: any idea who might replace Jenny? Go. But you're normally
S1: got a good inside running on these things.
S2: If had he heard of.
S1: Yeah, yeah. We've only got the news. Come here. Give
S1: me a little while longer. I don't have any. Maybe
S1: one scoop for next. Yeah, well I'd be I'd be
S1: very keen to work it out. So I had a
S1: chat with Meg Webb, who I know I don't.
S2: Think she's a.
S1: Great fan of the podcast. Who said that? Hello, Meg.
S1: The one thing that Tasmania needs is to get someone
S1: from outside.
S2: The state, like LegCo or boys.
S1: Or I don't think she was putting off. I think
S1: she was putting her name down for the gig. I
S1: think she's got plenty to do. But, um, Jenny Gale,
S1: it should be remembered, was very instrumental in the state's, um,
S1: response against Covid, and I think she was recognized for that,
S1: the premier pointed out. Um, also remembered full.
S2: Medal for doing her job. Yeah.
S1: Her role, uh, in the response to the commission of inquiry.
S1: And I touch upon that in my story in the
S1: newspaper tomorrow.
S2: Oh, it'll be today when this goes to air.
S1: But yeah, well, I look forward to reading that. That'll
S1: be very interesting. I suspect one of the things that, um, um,
S1: Mesam has been doing through this campaign is recording our numbers,
S1: this scorecard, a scorecard. But but I don't think I
S1: don't think the seats are being called yet, so I'm
S1: just wondering, Sam, whether we hold that joy.
S2: No, I think we can call them. Yeah, Kevin's called it.
S1: Okay. Oh, Kevin called it. I got the embarrassment out
S1: on the trip. Yeah, we can have a little bit
S1: of each. Yeah. Each time I think it would be. Well,
S1: why didn't you tell us about the.
S2: Well, it's going to be. It'll be 15, ten, five, three, two. Yeah. Okay.
S1: So the closest. I'm the closest one, I think is, uh,
S1: David Kulick.
S3: Wow. Really?
S2: Kulick was saving his own 13 seats for most of
S2: the campaign.
S1: Yeah, he lost his last call with 15.
S3: 1004.
S1: Greens.
S3: Yeah.
S1: Four independents and two Lamby. So pretty close. If that
S1: is the closest close, I think we need to give
S1: it away. Um, you wrote RJ 1610 one Lamby, four
S1: Greens for independence.
S3: Ooh.
S1: And, uh, beach towns end was 16. Ten. Three. Three. Three. Yeah, I. Well,
S1: that wasn't far off. That's pretty good. Yeah. Main stream
S1: yet to come? Yeah, no I wasn't yeah. I don't
S1: think I was far off. And the interesting thing about
S1: my numbers, and don't get me wrong, I think we're
S1: all pretty well converged pretty closely. By the end of
S1: it was they were pretty consistent throughout the campaign. And
S1: I think the vote, the one thing the vote did
S1: highlight was that I don't think there was much of
S1: a movement out there. Free poll to post poll. That's
S1: my sense, as is a lesson for me at a
S1: bain Marie or on a political podcast. I went with
S1: my gut instead of my head, and if I had
S1: a goal in my head, I would have been closer.
S1: Because if you follow the polls in and you would
S1: have given the lab his three and then work back
S1: from there, and I probably would have got really close,
S1: I wouldn't have given the greens five despite being very up,
S1: very bullish about their campaign. Two seats in electorate. Water. Yeah. No.
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