Speaker 1: imagine
Speaker 1: living in a time where six men kill themselves every day,
Speaker 1: and if we walk Basque gonna happen in 100 years.
Speaker 1: It sounds pretty gross, but it's actually,
Speaker 1: you know, originally fake news starts is a critique of
Speaker 1: news that's considered to be inaccurate. It's become a term
Speaker 1: that's used now to dismiss any news that you don't
Speaker 1: like and Iran wanted to. Young Australians has a
Speaker 1: provision. They are unwell generation that
Speaker 1: people don't accept. Climate science,
Speaker 1: if I think about how we're going to save the world,
Speaker 1: are enables us to move
Speaker 1: this time on the podcast. We are looking at renewable energy.
Speaker 1: Energy remains front and center of political debate. It divides
Speaker 1: those who want a faster transition away from fossil fuels
Speaker 1: and those who say the transition is not viable. Judah
Speaker 1: Economic impacts Renewables have long been touted as the solution
Speaker 1: to reducing our reliance on fossil fuels. And in Australia,
Speaker 1: renewable energy is growing at a per capita right 10
Speaker 1: times faster than the world average, nearly three times faster
Speaker 1: than the next buses. Country, Germany.
Speaker 1: Sorry, why haven't renewables taken? I've yet
Speaker 1: we'll find out from experts. What happens if we don't
Speaker 1: make the switch to renewables and the potential difference if
Speaker 1: we do.
Speaker 1: What happens if we don't move to renewables and phase
Speaker 1: out fossil fuels fast enough?
Speaker 1: Our experts fear the failure to keep global warming under
Speaker 1: two degrees could lead Toa large populated areas becoming uninhabitable.
Speaker 1: If we delay the move to renewables, we won't see
Speaker 1: the behavior change we need in communities, says behavioral scientist
Speaker 1: Liam Smith.
Speaker 1: I'm
Speaker 2: Liam Knit. I'm the director of behavior. What Australia High
Speaker 2: Boots
Speaker 2: by
Speaker 1: 10 such
Speaker 1: department
Speaker 2: to change behavior. Individual.
Speaker 1: Liam Smith. Welcome.
Speaker 2: Great. Great to be here.
Speaker 1: I want to ask you about renewable systems. Have reliable.
Speaker 1: Are they? Actually, Can we trust them?
Speaker 2: We know that they're becoming more and more reliable, that
Speaker 2: they're becoming a greater and greater part of greed, some
Speaker 2: technologies and more reliable than others.
Speaker 2: Uh, and, um, some countries indeed have
Speaker 2: situations were almost 100%. Even more than 100% of the
Speaker 2: national needs is supplied through renewables at times a long time.
Speaker 2: So I think that question is gradually being answered by
Speaker 2: people with probably greater technical expertise than I have, but
Speaker 2: that certainly we're heading down that path to the point
Speaker 2: with Amel, we're gonna become much more reliable than my
Speaker 2: happen in the past.
Speaker 1: And since they are pretty reliable at the moment, then
Speaker 1: by the sound of it, like you said, there are
Speaker 1: some countries that have, you know, use it for 100%
Speaker 1: of it needs at least some of the time. Why?
Speaker 1: Why Israeli? Don't we use it more? Why do you
Speaker 1: think there is? Still reluctance
Speaker 2: are a complicated question I would hit, hesitate to get
Speaker 2: probably at a few strings. The anti was the little
Speaker 2: few reasons the first
Speaker 2: I think you some incumbents in existing systems. So you know,
Speaker 2: we build power stations they designed the last several decades,
Speaker 2: but they are a large investments. It
Speaker 2: certainly technical capability and skill that goes into running them.
Speaker 2: And therefore we kind of locked in, you know, the
Speaker 2: part dependent on the technology.
Speaker 2: Ah, there's probably some hesitancy to the uptake of renewables
Speaker 2: because of stories around the reliability,
Speaker 2: I guess, increasing in Australia, we're getting more and more
Speaker 2: used to solder and salaries. One of those renewables, that is,
Speaker 2: you know, quite variable, depending on the Man of Sun
Speaker 2: and
Speaker 2: and then the weather and indeed where you are in Australia.
Speaker 2: And so I think probably a combination of those two
Speaker 2: things at the macro level. Other drivers. But we are
Speaker 2: seeing people ships. So, um you know, while they historically
Speaker 2: have been key drivers to resistance, I think these things
Speaker 2: are changing.
Speaker 1: And yet eso you say these changing and look, there
Speaker 1: are some legitimate questions to be asked. But there are
Speaker 1: countries that are
Speaker 1: far further down the road than we are. If are
Speaker 1: we dragging our feet due to renewable? Just needs better PR.
Speaker 1: What's the issue?
Speaker 2: Probably Ah, you know, I think renewable certainly could benefit
Speaker 2: from
Speaker 2: better PR on a bit of reputation.
Speaker 2: Ah, amongst Australians. Um, there are probably some other reasons
Speaker 2: beyond that. I mean, I think when you say other,
Speaker 2: some countries have embraced a much more whole only that's
Speaker 2: probably a combination of
Speaker 2: the policy. But my also reason. Very pragmatic reasons. Your connection.
Speaker 2: Too much large greed or indeed, much greater proportion. Nuclear
Speaker 2: energy supply systems, which are not traditionally a large part
Speaker 2: of the mix in Australia.
Speaker 2: Um, so yeah,
Speaker 2: are we dragging it? Think about it. It's a difficult
Speaker 2: question to answer. I mean, I know that some authors
Speaker 2: have looked at Australia and say, Well, look at all
Speaker 2: that space and all that fun. Ah, yeah, You know,
Speaker 2: you could be a an export country to the world,
Speaker 2: and we certainly aren't really,
Speaker 2: so there's certainly a possibility. But I get back to
Speaker 2: the early questioning and incumbency and and also some level
Speaker 2: of resistance.
Speaker 1: Do you think
Speaker 1: Australia does move towards more renewable and gas other technologies?
Speaker 1: What does that mean for the future?
Speaker 2: So I guess I'm a normal behavior scientist and well beyond.
Speaker 2: I guess the reason I'm talking to you is because
Speaker 2: lives will be speaking way dealing, not applied contexts and
Speaker 2: energy being one of those. So I can think about
Speaker 2: what does the future look like? Behavioral. Easy in a
Speaker 2: world where we have a much greater proportion of renewables,
Speaker 2: that that may not have the base load deploy that
Speaker 2: I called us.
Speaker 2: And so I do think the future. And you know,
Speaker 2: there are certainly many options in the future and hydro
Speaker 2: hard regions that being one that got the attention of
Speaker 2: government into the new future.
Speaker 2: Um, you know, there are ways in which the future
Speaker 2: may lead to changes in how we act and how
Speaker 2: we gauge of the system. I guess at one level,
Speaker 2: when energy bring, if we could have a better connected
Speaker 2: greed in that that allows exchange of energy between greed,
Speaker 2: I think that that's really gonna be helpful in distributing
Speaker 2: the risk you'll or the supply across brought a network.
Speaker 2: But that also means that people might need Teoh
Speaker 2: behave differently at times. And I think about the Monash
Speaker 2: work that we're doing in our local in the deer
Speaker 2: I work we're doing in particular hitting towards um,
Speaker 2: Well, it's Hockett of Nick, dear I
Speaker 2: And, uh, that's about the order of the micro level
Speaker 2: that is a monitor market. But then authorities and Monitor Network,
Speaker 2: which where we hope to
Speaker 2: I just be able to manipulate our power use. At times,
Speaker 2: I didn't uses all power, um, so that we can
Speaker 2: feeding or out of a broad agreed as needed. And
Speaker 2: I think that that's an area where things are really
Speaker 2: gonna change so I can see in the future times
Speaker 2: when we might need to, for example, turn the heating
Speaker 2: up because we can't keep the playschool
Speaker 2: and when I mean heading out on me, not from
Speaker 2: 25 to 30 but more 25 to 26 27
Speaker 1: or
Speaker 2: something like that just to create a little bit of
Speaker 2: ability in a system when we're drawing a lot from
Speaker 2: it and equally if were producing a lot of power. However,
Speaker 2: that looks and that this is admonishing celebrity,
Speaker 2: it's well, it's all around battery and wind in that mix,
Speaker 2: but certainly when we're producing more powers that we can
Speaker 2: export it. And we might
Speaker 2: either say it puts, um, storage into some energy into
Speaker 2: battery storage for the time being. Or we can export
Speaker 2: its whether greed Jamaican has a change in their behaviour.
Speaker 2: In terms of, you know, use your energy. Now recharge
Speaker 2: your batteries. Now with that in a car or something
Speaker 2: else
Speaker 2: or in the heart. Home Batteries is becoming pretty popular
Speaker 2: at the moment as well that these are things that
Speaker 2: I can see behavior really changing in the future. So
Speaker 2: will be, hopefully much more connected. We'll see particularly acid
Speaker 2: like home batteries,
Speaker 2: things like the taste of two or indeed,
Speaker 2: a car batteries will become a resource that is drawn
Speaker 2: down and feeding back into the grid
Speaker 2: as needed quite regularly. So they will provide that security
Speaker 2: and that reliability.
Speaker 2: So that means you and I are doing a few
Speaker 2: things differently. Probably,
Speaker 2: uh, when this energy, we might use it for storage
Speaker 2: and when when it's not their NATO, except a few
Speaker 2: things that are different as well.
Speaker 1: You told us what could happen if you know how
Speaker 1: the future could Look, if we make some changes, what
Speaker 1: could have you to look like if we don't?
Speaker 1: If we don't start adopting more renewables?
Speaker 2: Yeah, I guess this this this kind of like clinic
Speaker 2: times argument, Really? I mean, that this is the one
Speaker 2: argument is, Well,
Speaker 2: um, you know, the Australians, a contributor were not a
Speaker 2: huge contributor, but capital were very large contributor
Speaker 2: to, ah, carbon emissions, etcetera, And that lady global change
Speaker 2: and causing
Speaker 2: very least the 1.5 or two degree changing the temperature.
Speaker 2: We know what that main
Speaker 2: that I mean, we continue contribute to that which is
Speaker 2: not great. I guess there's a reputational images Well, in
Speaker 2: that you know, monitor. Very Australia looks very much like
Speaker 2: a lag.
Speaker 2: Um, it is
Speaker 2: behind the up, uh, behind the eight ball. Like it
Speaker 2: in terms of the uptake of new smart grids and
Speaker 2: technology that allow exchange of energy in the way we
Speaker 2: have been talking about and very much others get ahead. Both,
Speaker 2: I guess it through the technology, but then equally through
Speaker 2: their economies, probably start to possible much more as well.
Speaker 2: So I think,
Speaker 2: yeah, I got a particularly. I think it's the reputation
Speaker 2: of risk, I think is wearing the short term, but
Speaker 2: then longer terms that made it the climate, helping others
Speaker 2: as well.
Speaker 1: Do you think there any areas more than others, where
Speaker 1: if we don't make change, environmentally order, renewable sense things
Speaker 1: could be worse than others? Like is that is the
Speaker 1: biggest
Speaker 1: area for renewable focus? For example, say
Speaker 1: stopping cold
Speaker 1: as opposed to anything else. We should just focus on that,
Speaker 1: because if we don't ah, the part that we're going
Speaker 1: down is just too negative,
Speaker 2: not quite shocking. And so that I think, stopping Cole
Speaker 2: he's actually
Speaker 2: really important. I can't speak to the impact that has
Speaker 2: or doesn't have in terms of
Speaker 2: climate on, and there are certainly common scientists billions that
Speaker 2: better than I can. But I do think the shutting
Speaker 2: of coal station sends really important messages community to people
Speaker 2: about what matters.
Speaker 2: And so when you know when we see a power
Speaker 2: station closed down on D. C companies saying right with
Speaker 2: divesting out of coal, I think that that creates the
Speaker 2: momentum
Speaker 2: in many ways with which had great moment and not not,
Speaker 2: not necessarily for the right reasons. On the back of
Speaker 2: the bushfires at the moment of the other factors are
Speaker 2: completely changing that, unfortunately,
Speaker 2: many raisins with covered. But
Speaker 2: but certainly, uh,
Speaker 2: you know,
Speaker 2: if covert hadn't happened, it's almost certain that there would
Speaker 2: be a really
Speaker 2: good policy we know now screening, giving an action on
Speaker 2: climate change.
Speaker 2: And, um so what do you think? You know, getting
Speaker 2: out of coal
Speaker 2: and having policies that
Speaker 2: sort of take it down. That part, actually, really powerful
Speaker 2: signals to community decided matters.
Speaker 2: And, you know, I don't support the idea of questions.
Speaker 2: Dan Cole,
Speaker 2: as the Khyber researches were often interesting. Well, does that
Speaker 2: then latest to do something else way more likely, the act.
Speaker 2: Do something that we likely the dog. You know, after graduation,
Speaker 2: if you leave the superannuation company, let us alone exchange
Speaker 2: with Boston. Brand new. I should company the want. Darvish
Speaker 2: that a couple? Um you know, but but that Will
Speaker 2: it lead me to doom or things that are interrogated
Speaker 2: that are in line with the first thing I did?
Speaker 2: And we call these behavioral spillover, right? So if I
Speaker 2: do one thing, I would like to do another another,
Speaker 2: another several by boat or advocate, or even just support.
Speaker 2: I'm the idea of causing coal
Speaker 2: more than likely to divest a call. And my men
Speaker 2: like leader, you know, switch off the light of my
Speaker 2: workplace in my then likely that by an electric vehicle, etcetera.
Speaker 2: This is question. And what we do know seems Teoh
Speaker 2: mediate those relationships. How much?
Speaker 2: If I see myself with that kind of person, I'm
Speaker 2: more likely did more things that consistent. And so it's
Speaker 2: not the best answer to your question in terms of,
Speaker 2: you know, where do we concentrate? But I do think
Speaker 2: potentially if we had the, um
Speaker 2: it's kind of philosophy that we want to take people
Speaker 2: on journeys in carbon
Speaker 2: and don't just involved reporting reduction of coal, but hope
Speaker 2: draft of other things that, you know over a short
Speaker 2: space of time that will be otherwise Australia becomes called.
Speaker 1: You mentioned that if it were not for covered, we
Speaker 1: might have a great window to talk about renewables here.
Speaker 1: Do you think we're gonna lose that window?
Speaker 2: I think we've already looked.
Speaker 1: And what will be the impact of that?
Speaker 2: Well, so I think in
Speaker 2: policy, there are windows that happens
Speaker 2: for a whole raft of reasons. GFT credibly knows. Um,
Speaker 2: you know, the government to drive, but a windows and
Speaker 2: we had good
Speaker 2: movement in planet in peril, environment and some other spaces
Speaker 2: over the past to the four fucking years.
Speaker 2: Um, but But when?
Speaker 2: But those windows closed, they don't stay open for a
Speaker 2: long period of time.
Speaker 2: They can be driven. I think, by a whole bunch
Speaker 2: of things that a natural disaster, as the Bushrod have done,
Speaker 2: is one a politician, or later they're putting a stake
Speaker 2: in the ground, saying this matter, two million, I'm really
Speaker 2: gonna do something about it, or it can come out
Speaker 2: of community.
Speaker 2: But when they get into the public discourse and the zeitgeist,
Speaker 2: then we have a very
Speaker 2: typically a fairly placing. My aren't last year.
Speaker 2: There are the Windows, but significant policy times to occur.
Speaker 2: Unfortunately, I think we had that window in January. Onda
Speaker 2: close pretty quickly.
Speaker 2: It's really, really quite districting, actually. And a them and
Speaker 2: justice wake up any meetings from that push bar recovery
Speaker 2: intensive biodiversity starting in the late last week.
Speaker 2: And it's really distracting because they know that intimately.
Speaker 2: And they really love that
Speaker 1: very strange and troubling times we're in at the moment.
Speaker 1: Liam Sweet. Thank you so much for your time.
Speaker 2: You're welcome.
Speaker 1: Paul Raschke is an economist specializing in insurance industry is
Speaker 1: already planning for situations in those parts of the world
Speaker 1: that might become unlivable due to global temperature rises, increasing
Speaker 1: natural disasters and catastrophic weather events without a move to
Speaker 1: renewable Sign to say we can't limit the temperature increase
Speaker 1: to two degrees, it needs to bay. Paul has a
Speaker 1: window into what that world looks like if we don't
Speaker 1: hate the science.
Speaker 2: Hi, my name is Paul Raschke. I'm economy on this
Speaker 2: university and my research
Speaker 2: interested in the peace of environmental, economic, political, economy and insurance,
Speaker 2: economic
Speaker 2: and, um, in general, I broke with
Speaker 2: large
Speaker 2: data that on topics related to environment, climate change in
Speaker 2: the Children.
Speaker 1: Paul Raschke from economics. Thanks for joining me.
Speaker 2: Thank you.
Speaker 1: We think a lot about, uh, the disasters of climate
Speaker 1: change and all their environmental impacts and those terrible things.
Speaker 1: What could the if things continue unabated
Speaker 1: with with climate change, what could be the financial or
Speaker 1: economic or or insurance outcomes of that? Those things maybe
Speaker 1: we haven't really thought about.
Speaker 2: So
Speaker 2: on the 100 insurance in the three, um, had put
Speaker 2: out the number of estimates. On the one hand they
Speaker 2: put out,
Speaker 2: I've estimates about the potential increase in the frequency and
Speaker 2: intensity off climate related natural disasters.
Speaker 2: So there's a common understanding that these events might increase
Speaker 2: in some areas of the world.
Speaker 2: So that means, um if these scenarios are correct, we
Speaker 2: were going to see more hurricanes, more flooding more. He
Speaker 2: plays in the future, um, income area
Speaker 2: and not trend that we are actually seeing. That, you know,
Speaker 2: not necessarily related to climate change is that people are
Speaker 2: more and more moving to more exposed area.
Speaker 2: So think about Kotal area. Um just looking around Australia.
Speaker 2: I think about how the Gold Coast looked like 15
Speaker 2: years ago versus now. Think about Florida.
Speaker 2: Um and so we have this demographic trends,
Speaker 2: our settlement trend
Speaker 2: in addition that might, you know, even increase the future
Speaker 2: losses for society in general. But also the future damages that, um,
Speaker 2: the insurance companies might have to cover.
Speaker 1: And so are insurance companies already factoring that in. Are
Speaker 1: they already starting to prepare for maybe having to pay
Speaker 1: out form or cyclones more heatwaves? Or is this at
Speaker 1: this stage still
Speaker 1: a consideration?
Speaker 2: So what insurance companies do around the world, they have
Speaker 2: a number of different things. First, I mean that the
Speaker 2: most extreme reactions that simply say it's not insurable. So
Speaker 2: there can be properties that are in
Speaker 2: in our example flood risk zone, that insurance companies already
Speaker 2: are saying, Look, we no longer ensuring you.
Speaker 2: Some insurance companies are in some countries. We see that
Speaker 2: insurance companies, you know, refused to ensure a certain properties.
Speaker 2: Um, that's the most extreme form, the other possibilities that
Speaker 2: they simply increase the premium to reflect the wrist,
Speaker 2: and that then makes it for
Speaker 2: people unaffordable to live there because they're the premiums are
Speaker 2: so high, and
Speaker 2: normally the premium to reflect there is. I mean, it's
Speaker 2: just making even exposed areas making living grab it becomes
Speaker 2: extremely expensive.
Speaker 2: On. The other thing is that in some on countries,
Speaker 2: for example, Switzerland, the insurance companies are statement all police,
Speaker 2: so they have
Speaker 2: fuel more right
Speaker 2: to intervene in how
Speaker 2: buildings appeal.
Speaker 2: Um, and they can say, OK, we have, um, this
Speaker 2: combination of not just financial insurance often interest trench, but
Speaker 2: also asking people to in the Mormon into self protection.
Speaker 2: And then they can ask you to say,
Speaker 2: You know, put your house on until spills, for example,
Speaker 2: or put in
Speaker 2: in your basement when those they need Toby Flood proof. Otherwise,
Speaker 2: you don't get that a precondition for insurance
Speaker 2: In that sense, state defector that in
Speaker 2: another way, where let's say the industry of the whole
Speaker 2: is approaching the climate change, Um,
Speaker 2: scenarios is on the more broader let's say information base,
Speaker 2: um, campaign, where they produce research and, you know, try
Speaker 2: to inform policy makers around the world about the increasing risk.
Speaker 1: Do you think we'll start to see Mawr places or areas?
Speaker 1: People who are in places that are just uninsurable. We
Speaker 1: might have some now pat saying, Australian, maybe areas that
Speaker 1: are really prone to bushfires, for example, or coastal areas
Speaker 1: that look like any minute now that could be swept away.
Speaker 1: Adds, climate change does progress. And we do see more
Speaker 1: things like heatwaves, more cyclones, that air that could impact
Speaker 1: far greater people. Will we start to see more areas
Speaker 1: that are either just uninsurable or the premiums are so
Speaker 1: high that fewer and fewer people can afford to live there?
Speaker 2: That could be the case that some areas will simply
Speaker 2: be uninsurable in the sense that you know, if the government,
Speaker 2: for example, doesn't intervene and maybe Ted up
Speaker 2: some
Speaker 2: cooperation with a some form of collaboration with insurance companies
Speaker 2: are we provide some form of insurance, then the private
Speaker 2: tech team a template. They know we're not going to
Speaker 2: ensure there or we will provide insurance, but it can't
Speaker 2: as a joke.
Speaker 2: You know, we're not going to pay out the full um, damage,
Speaker 2: but at the image that you know you get, you
Speaker 2: can buy an insurance and the claim you can make
Speaker 2: it limited. Let's say $20,000. You see that some European
Speaker 2: companies have that there
Speaker 2: Countries that you have, um,
Speaker 2: with your normal by insurance for your household, you can
Speaker 2: top up and getting a natural disaster peck touch that
Speaker 2: insures you against the whole set of natural disasters. But
Speaker 2: the states in the insurance policy that you know if
Speaker 2: something happens, we will only pay you x amount of dollars.
Speaker 2: Not
Speaker 1: only does it sound really complicated, it sounds like a
Speaker 1: complicated problem. We're gonna have to be dealing with more
Speaker 1: and more in the future as climate change progresses. Paul,
Speaker 1: that was really useful. Thank you so much for taking
Speaker 1: the time. I really appreciate it.
Speaker 2: No, that time has a
Speaker 2: way.
Speaker 1: Definitely some food for thought there about how much we
Speaker 1: need to manage this transition. Next episode will find out
Speaker 1: just what is possible in the world of renewables and
Speaker 1: what needs to change so we can get there faster.
Speaker 1: Thanks to our guest today, Liam Smith and Paul Raschke.
Speaker 1: That's it for this episode. More information on what we
Speaker 1: discussed today can be found in the show notes