WEBVTT - Planning for Prosperity: You say La Nina, I say El Nino with Kate Finger 0:00:00.110 --> 0:00:04.250 BCG acknowledges the traditional custodians of country throughout Australia and 0:00:04.250 --> 0:00:07.610 their connections to land, sea and community. We pay our 0:00:07.610 --> 0:00:10.280 respects to their elders, past and present. 0:00:10.430 --> 0:00:13.310 This podcast is sponsored by Action Steel. 0:00:13.340 --> 0:00:15.680 This year, in terms of the IOD, it's just been 0:00:15.680 --> 0:00:18.590 sitting there in neutral. We've been just watching it, seeing 0:00:18.590 --> 0:00:21.620 if there's anything developing at the moment. There's a slight 0:00:21.650 --> 0:00:23.450 hint that it's looking like it could go a little 0:00:23.480 --> 0:00:26.960 bit negative IOD, which would actually increase our chances of 0:00:26.960 --> 0:00:30.590 some rainfall, but similar to the Pacific Ocean in the 0:00:30.590 --> 0:00:33.500 Indian Ocean, that is purely just based on a temperature 0:00:33.500 --> 0:00:37.430 difference between the Horn of Africa and the waters off 0:00:37.430 --> 0:00:40.640 the coast of Sumatra. Again, like the El Nino and 0:00:40.640 --> 0:00:43.519 La Nina patterns to develop, it's not just the sea 0:00:43.550 --> 0:00:45.680 surface temperatures that we need there to be in a 0:00:45.680 --> 0:00:49.489 certain pattern. We also need the trade winds, pressure patterns 0:00:49.490 --> 0:00:51.800 and the cloudiness also to come to the party there. 0:00:51.800 --> 0:00:54.050 And that's also not really happening at this point of 0:00:54.050 --> 0:00:54.890 time either. 0:00:55.370 --> 0:00:59.540 Welcome back to Shared Solutions by BCG. I'm Janine Batters 0:00:59.540 --> 0:01:02.590 in the second episode of our series planning for prosperity, 0:01:02.590 --> 0:01:05.680 I'm talking with our resident climate specialist, Kate Finger, and 0:01:05.680 --> 0:01:07.780 I'm going to be asking you, what is going on 0:01:07.780 --> 0:01:09.970 with these climate predictions. Welcome, Kate. 0:01:10.000 --> 0:01:11.110 Thanks, Janine. 0:01:11.860 --> 0:01:15.550 So I won't get Kate to introduce herself because we 0:01:15.550 --> 0:01:19.960 actually have a whole episode dedicated to meet Kate. So 0:01:19.959 --> 0:01:21.580 if you want to jump back and listen to that, 0:01:21.580 --> 0:01:23.440 by all means go do that. But we are going 0:01:23.470 --> 0:01:26.679 to jump straight in, Kate. So we've been experiencing some 0:01:26.680 --> 0:01:29.709 warmer weather. We haven't got a lot of rain yet. 0:01:29.740 --> 0:01:33.220 We've been hearing that it's supposed to be a wet spring. 0:01:33.220 --> 0:01:36.670 The same thing happened last year. They were talking El Nino. No. 0:01:36.670 --> 0:01:38.380 So what's going on? 0:01:38.380 --> 0:01:40.720 That is a jolly good question. And there is. Whilst 0:01:40.720 --> 0:01:42.640 it doesn't look like there's much going on, there's actually 0:01:42.640 --> 0:01:45.610 a lot going on climate wise. It's just not quite 0:01:45.640 --> 0:01:49.240 eventuating as to how we might be wishing it is. 0:01:49.240 --> 0:01:52.540 So there must be a reason, an underlying reason, Kate, 0:01:52.540 --> 0:01:55.960 why we keep hearing, particularly in the media, that it's 0:01:55.960 --> 0:01:58.570 going to be a wetter spring and it really hurts 0:01:58.570 --> 0:01:59.620 at the moment. 0:01:59.650 --> 0:02:01.750 Yeah. So Janine, there's a couple of things going on there. 0:02:01.750 --> 0:02:07.840 So the media is absolutely sensationalizing the climate forecasts and predictions. 0:02:07.840 --> 0:02:11.470 Their models are doing their runs. They're coming to a consensus. 0:02:11.500 --> 0:02:13.810 A cluster of them are suggesting that there is a 0:02:13.810 --> 0:02:16.750 potential for a La Nina to develop. The media latches 0:02:16.750 --> 0:02:19.120 on to that headline, and then the next thing, it's 0:02:19.120 --> 0:02:21.700 plastered around all the newspapers and making all the news 0:02:21.700 --> 0:02:23.350 that we're going to get a La Nina in summer, 0:02:23.350 --> 0:02:26.110 which is definitely possible. But there's also a lot going 0:02:26.110 --> 0:02:29.800 on with our climate that's also impacting what we're actually 0:02:29.800 --> 0:02:32.770 currently experiencing and likely to experience in the coming months 0:02:32.770 --> 0:02:35.290 as well. And it's the same thing that happened last year, too. 0:02:35.320 --> 0:02:38.290 The forecasts were things were aligning looking like we're going 0:02:38.320 --> 0:02:41.590 to get an El Nino, but just because it's looking 0:02:41.590 --> 0:02:43.660 like an El Nino is going to develop and it 0:02:43.660 --> 0:02:48.010 and the criteria is met for it to be called 0:02:48.010 --> 0:02:51.040 an El Nino, it doesn't guarantee, it doesn't mean that 0:02:51.040 --> 0:02:53.889 it's things are going to be dry. Anything is possible. 0:02:53.889 --> 0:02:56.680 It's just in that particular instance last year with the 0:02:56.680 --> 0:02:59.110 El Nino, all the possibilities were on the table, the 0:02:59.110 --> 0:03:02.530 models were skewing it towards a higher increased chance of drier. 0:03:02.530 --> 0:03:04.840 But there was that one little model run in the 0:03:04.840 --> 0:03:06.730 background there that was going, no, it's actually going to 0:03:06.730 --> 0:03:08.830 be wetter. And that's just what happened to eventuate in 0:03:08.830 --> 0:03:09.700 spring last year. 0:03:09.700 --> 0:03:13.030 When we get these predictions, are you talking more probabilities 0:03:13.030 --> 0:03:15.549 rather than this is going to happen or not? 0:03:15.580 --> 0:03:18.100 Yeah. So that's exactly right. Jeanine. We are talking these 0:03:18.100 --> 0:03:21.610 are more probabilities and giving us an idea that there's 0:03:21.610 --> 0:03:25.210 an increased chance or increased likelihood of something occurring, rather 0:03:25.210 --> 0:03:28.390 than when a forecast or outlook is given. This is 0:03:28.570 --> 0:03:31.299 definitely what is going to happen. And that's because how 0:03:31.300 --> 0:03:33.610 the models work is they run off a heap of 0:03:33.610 --> 0:03:37.570 model runs that are then generated behind the scenes, and 0:03:37.570 --> 0:03:42.160 then the forecast is where the majority of those models lie. 0:03:42.190 --> 0:03:46.090 So if you, for example, have 100 different model runs, 0:03:46.090 --> 0:03:50.050 and then in a year like this, there's an increased 0:03:50.050 --> 0:03:53.410 number of them suggesting a La Nina will develop. So 0:03:53.410 --> 0:03:56.530 for example, let's put some numbers around that. There's 60 0:03:56.560 --> 0:03:59.100 in the La Nina camp that is going to skew 0:03:59.100 --> 0:04:02.880 the forecast towards indicating there's an increased chance likelihood of 0:04:02.880 --> 0:04:05.790 a La Nina developing, but that's only 60 of the 0:04:05.790 --> 0:04:09.300 model runs, so there's another 30 in the background there 0:04:09.330 --> 0:04:12.480 that could be saying that it's likely to experience average conditions. 0:04:12.480 --> 0:04:14.730 And then there could be another ten in there saying 0:04:14.730 --> 0:04:17.220 that conditions could actually be dry. And it just so 0:04:17.220 --> 0:04:20.430 happens that this year it's those ten that are right. 0:04:20.460 --> 0:04:23.670 Spoken like a true scientist there, Kate. So really it's 0:04:23.670 --> 0:04:27.750 thinking about the language, the increased probability that we're going 0:04:27.779 --> 0:04:30.180 to get a wetter. So can you tell me at 0:04:30.180 --> 0:04:32.850 the moment what are the models saying now what is 0:04:32.880 --> 0:04:35.370 actually happening. Are we going to get a wetter spring. 0:04:35.490 --> 0:04:38.310 Yes. What the models are actually saying now is that 0:04:38.310 --> 0:04:42.840 both the Enso that's our La Nina El Nino area 0:04:42.839 --> 0:04:47.370 and our IOD Indian Ocean Dipole, both of those climate 0:04:47.370 --> 0:04:51.690 drivers are currently in the neutral phase, so all possibilities 0:04:51.690 --> 0:04:55.530 are on the table. There is some cooling in the 0:04:55.529 --> 0:05:00.170 Nino 3.4 box in the Pacific Ocean when that area 0:05:00.170 --> 0:05:03.380 cools down, and once it hits a certain threshold, that 0:05:03.380 --> 0:05:07.010 is what triggers a La Nina to be announced as 0:05:07.010 --> 0:05:10.190 a climate event officially underway. There is some activity in 0:05:10.190 --> 0:05:12.739 the ocean suggesting, and that's what a lot of the 0:05:12.740 --> 0:05:16.190 models are picking up on this cooling and going, oh look, 0:05:16.220 --> 0:05:19.460 there's some cooling there. There's potential that El Nino could develop. 0:05:19.460 --> 0:05:23.120 And they are suggesting that increased chances of one occurring 0:05:23.150 --> 0:05:26.150 towards the end of the year and into summer, but 0:05:26.180 --> 0:05:28.339 a lot more needs to occur for that to really 0:05:28.339 --> 0:05:30.440 have much of an impact on our climate. And it's 0:05:30.440 --> 0:05:32.870 looking like if it does develop, it will be quite 0:05:32.870 --> 0:05:35.270 weak and short lived. When we're talking about models, we're 0:05:35.270 --> 0:05:38.450 talking not just about the access model that the bureau have, 0:05:38.480 --> 0:05:42.170 but also it gets compared to a range of international 0:05:42.170 --> 0:05:45.710 models as well. And there the general consensus of those 0:05:45.740 --> 0:05:49.610 is for an increased likelihood of above average rainfall into 0:05:49.610 --> 0:05:53.450 that late spring summer period. But we need the wind 0:05:53.450 --> 0:05:56.720 patterns to be going in the right direction to bring 0:05:56.730 --> 0:06:00.240 moisture created up in the atmosphere across to mainland. Australia. 0:06:00.240 --> 0:06:03.930 We need the pressure patterns to be performing in the 0:06:03.930 --> 0:06:06.000 right way. So that those rain fronts can move across 0:06:06.000 --> 0:06:08.670 and deliver the rain. That is also something that's impacting 0:06:08.670 --> 0:06:11.549 our weather at the moment, and we also need the 0:06:11.550 --> 0:06:14.820 cloud patterns as well, to be able to have increased cloudiness, 0:06:14.820 --> 0:06:16.800 to be able to generate that rain. 0:06:16.830 --> 0:06:18.990 So how are all those other things looking, Kate? 0:06:19.020 --> 0:06:21.810 They are not looking like they want to come to 0:06:21.810 --> 0:06:24.780 the party this year. There's still opportunity for that to change, 0:06:24.779 --> 0:06:27.450 but at the moment they're not really showing up at all. 0:06:27.450 --> 0:06:29.280 So all the action is just in the ocean. 0:06:29.310 --> 0:06:32.760 Okay. What I'm thinking is normally I read your climate 0:06:32.760 --> 0:06:35.460 section in the technical bulletin. It's always very good. We 0:06:35.490 --> 0:06:39.239 normally start talking about the IOD in about July, and 0:06:39.240 --> 0:06:42.870 that's when you normally say that's when it's more likely to. 0:06:42.900 --> 0:06:46.530 We don't see anything before then isn't really accurate. Normally 0:06:46.529 --> 0:06:50.520 when we're talking about the IOD we're thinking spring. Great. 0:06:50.520 --> 0:06:52.979 We're going to get some rain early spring. But because 0:06:52.980 --> 0:06:56.350 it hasn't aligned yet, do you think that's playing a 0:06:56.350 --> 0:06:58.330 role that it's delayed. Yeah. 0:06:58.360 --> 0:07:01.300 In that autumn period, the climate drivers go through this 0:07:01.300 --> 0:07:03.790 reset phase, and that is one of the main reasons 0:07:03.790 --> 0:07:05.739 why they're not so accurate or good to be looking at, 0:07:05.740 --> 0:07:08.680 because they've done all their past year's activity. They're going 0:07:08.680 --> 0:07:11.140 back to neutral, and then they'll start ramping up and 0:07:11.140 --> 0:07:14.620 moving in a certain direction as the year progresses over 0:07:14.620 --> 0:07:17.500 that winter period that you're saying they're Janine, that is 0:07:17.500 --> 0:07:20.500 when we do start to see a bit more activity 0:07:20.500 --> 0:07:22.960 in those regions. That gives us a bit more confidence 0:07:22.960 --> 0:07:27.730 in those forecasts to see where the ocean temperatures, wind patterns, 0:07:27.730 --> 0:07:31.810 pressure patterns, where they're all aligning. And that's what's helping 0:07:31.840 --> 0:07:34.990 to drive whether an IOD event develops or an El 0:07:34.990 --> 0:07:38.200 Nino La Nina event develops this year. In terms of 0:07:38.200 --> 0:07:40.570 the IOD, it's just been sitting there in neutral. We've 0:07:40.570 --> 0:07:43.480 been just watching it, seeing if there's anything developing at 0:07:43.480 --> 0:07:46.420 the moment. There's a slight hint that it's looking like 0:07:46.420 --> 0:07:48.730 it could go a little bit negative IOD, which would 0:07:48.760 --> 0:07:52.900 actually increase our chances of some rainfall. But similar to 0:07:52.930 --> 0:07:55.770 the Pacific Ocean in the Indian Ocean, that is purely 0:07:55.770 --> 0:07:59.520 just based on a temperature difference between the Horn of 0:07:59.520 --> 0:08:02.970 Africa and the waters off the coast of Sumatra. Again, 0:08:03.000 --> 0:08:06.420 like the El Nino and La Nina patterns to develop, 0:08:06.420 --> 0:08:08.610 it's not just the sea surface temperatures that we need 0:08:08.640 --> 0:08:11.250 there to be in a certain pattern. We also need 0:08:11.250 --> 0:08:14.670 the trade winds, pressure patterns and the cloudiness also to 0:08:14.700 --> 0:08:16.920 come to the party there. And that's also not really 0:08:16.920 --> 0:08:18.720 happening at this point of time either. 0:08:18.750 --> 0:08:22.830 So in terms of the sea surface temperatures, I think 0:08:22.830 --> 0:08:24.960 I was reading that it's sitting at about I'm probably 0:08:24.960 --> 0:08:27.930 going to get this wrong, but about minus oh four 0:08:27.960 --> 0:08:29.730 or something. Is that right? And then but it has 0:08:29.730 --> 0:08:33.510 to reach minus seven and it has to sit there 0:08:33.510 --> 0:08:36.360 for a certain amount of time. Correct me Kate. Yeah. 0:08:36.360 --> 0:08:39.780 So that's in the key indicator box for whether the 0:08:39.780 --> 0:08:42.599 Bom declares an El Nino or La Nina event to 0:08:42.630 --> 0:08:45.840 be underway is there's a threshold that we want the 0:08:45.870 --> 0:08:49.709 sea surface temperature anomalies to be having a difference by. 0:08:49.710 --> 0:08:54.210 And it is currently sitting around that -0.4. But we 0:08:54.210 --> 0:08:57.420 need it to get up to that -0.8 for it 0:08:57.420 --> 0:08:59.280 to be declared in La Nina and for. 0:08:59.280 --> 0:09:00.090 A period of time. 0:09:00.300 --> 0:09:02.429 And for a period of time as well. Yes. How 0:09:02.429 --> 0:09:04.199 long is that? Can't quite remember. Off the top of 0:09:04.200 --> 0:09:07.559 my head, I think for an IOD, it needs around 0:09:07.559 --> 0:09:10.680 that eight week period to be above the threshold for 0:09:10.679 --> 0:09:11.880 it to be announced. 0:09:11.910 --> 0:09:15.360 Okay, so even though it might be creeping towards it, 0:09:15.360 --> 0:09:17.820 it's going to have to sit there for a while 0:09:17.820 --> 0:09:19.800 for it to even be declared. So we've probably got 0:09:19.800 --> 0:09:21.390 another what how many weeks? 0:09:21.420 --> 0:09:24.030 Yeah, a few, but we're talking a lot about meeting 0:09:24.030 --> 0:09:28.829 thresholds and things being declared. But we're in sort of 0:09:28.860 --> 0:09:32.100 a bit of unchartered territory at the moment with climate change, 0:09:32.100 --> 0:09:34.949 and that's having quite a big impact on sea surface 0:09:34.950 --> 0:09:38.939 temperatures around the globe. The sea is each year hearing 0:09:38.940 --> 0:09:42.059 reports that it's just been in. Overall temperatures are just 0:09:42.059 --> 0:09:45.090 constantly increasing. So in terms of all of the thresholds 0:09:45.090 --> 0:09:47.790 and things that we're using, they're not necessarily being super 0:09:47.790 --> 0:09:51.569 helpful because temperatures are higher year on year. In fact, 0:09:51.570 --> 0:09:54.679 we're trying to target that negative point eight of a 0:09:54.679 --> 0:09:58.640 temperature difference actually might not be triggering anymore for El 0:09:58.640 --> 0:10:02.990 Nino or La Nina event. The thresholds might actually be smaller, 0:10:02.990 --> 0:10:05.720 so even if we don't get there, it still doesn't 0:10:05.720 --> 0:10:07.490 mean that it's not going to be influencing our climate 0:10:07.490 --> 0:10:08.750 and rainfall patterns. 0:10:11.120 --> 0:10:15.410 Compliant chemical storage sheds are important infrastructure for cropping enterprises 0:10:15.410 --> 0:10:19.219 from a safety point of view and for a sustainability certification. 0:10:19.250 --> 0:10:23.240 BCG gold sponsors action. The Big Shed people have developed 0:10:23.240 --> 0:10:25.610 a range of standard chemical shed designs to help you 0:10:25.610 --> 0:10:28.760 meet these requirements. The designs include details such as lock 0:10:28.790 --> 0:10:33.590 up storage areas, bonded concrete floors, ventilation and sprayer bays. 0:10:33.620 --> 0:10:38.000 Head to action steel. Com.au to learn more about the designs, 0:10:38.000 --> 0:10:44.930 sizes and prices. It's becoming more unreliable, would you say? 0:10:44.960 --> 0:10:47.540 I think it's definitely making it very hard for anyone 0:10:47.540 --> 0:10:52.280 involved in climate forecasting and working with the models they 0:10:52.280 --> 0:10:56.030 work off of past events that helped shape their current 0:10:56.030 --> 0:11:00.050 predictions and go off. What's happened in the past and 0:11:00.080 --> 0:11:01.880 this is what the wave is looking like and things 0:11:01.880 --> 0:11:04.370 like that. But at the moment, unchartered territory with some 0:11:04.400 --> 0:11:07.520 of the temperatures that we are experiencing. And so as 0:11:07.520 --> 0:11:09.740 we have seen very much this year, they are really 0:11:09.770 --> 0:11:13.939 actually struggling to provide forecasts. But the very nature of 0:11:13.940 --> 0:11:18.110 climate forecasts is because they're based on probability. Definitely should 0:11:18.110 --> 0:11:21.079 not be taking them as gospel. You can't go that. Oh, 0:11:21.170 --> 0:11:23.720 the forecast was saying it was going to be wet 0:11:23.720 --> 0:11:26.059 for this month and we didn't get it. They got 0:11:26.059 --> 0:11:28.850 it wrong. You just can't do that because they're just 0:11:28.850 --> 0:11:30.320 based off probabilities. 0:11:30.350 --> 0:11:33.830 What advice would you give farmers now? And probably even 0:11:33.830 --> 0:11:38.420 moving into next year's planning, taking into account these predictions. 0:11:38.450 --> 0:11:41.210 I would definitely keep looking at your the apps that 0:11:41.210 --> 0:11:44.390 you're looking at for your weather forecasting, the bureau's website 0:11:44.390 --> 0:11:47.510 for the longer term range outlooks, and whatever else you 0:11:47.540 --> 0:11:51.890 use information wise to get your climate outlooks for the 0:11:51.890 --> 0:11:55.480 season ahead. Yes. They're not always right, but that's the 0:11:55.480 --> 0:11:58.420 nature of them. They are based on probabilities. There can 0:11:58.420 --> 0:12:00.790 be really good for getting an a bit of a 0:12:00.790 --> 0:12:03.370 feel or a flair for where the season's going to 0:12:03.400 --> 0:12:06.610 potentially end up, so they can help with if you 0:12:06.610 --> 0:12:09.099 have in the back of your mind, help with logistics 0:12:09.100 --> 0:12:11.500 and planning for, oh, it could end up this way. 0:12:11.500 --> 0:12:14.650 So maybe I'll just keep that in my thought process. 0:12:14.650 --> 0:12:17.290 But definitely don't take them as gospel and go that 0:12:17.290 --> 0:12:19.480 they said it's going to be a La Nina and 0:12:19.480 --> 0:12:21.970 spring by everything that I need to be able to 0:12:22.000 --> 0:12:24.700 manage my disease and stock up on urea, because it's 0:12:24.700 --> 0:12:26.319 going to be wet. That is not how you should 0:12:26.320 --> 0:12:28.569 be using climate forecasts at all. 0:12:28.570 --> 0:12:30.849 So hedge your bets, but maybe swing them a little 0:12:30.880 --> 0:12:33.189 bit more in one way with the predictions. 0:12:33.190 --> 0:12:35.470 Yes, and keep refining that to as you go along. 0:12:35.470 --> 0:12:38.320 So don't make that decision in January. I know that 0:12:38.320 --> 0:12:39.880 can be hard for some things which you might need 0:12:39.880 --> 0:12:43.300 to forward purchase, but even if you just got that 0:12:43.300 --> 0:12:45.550 little bit extra on hand, if that's what the forecast 0:12:45.580 --> 0:12:48.280 is looking like to help you, if it does eventuate 0:12:48.280 --> 0:12:51.580 because it's better to be prepared rather than unprepared. 0:12:51.690 --> 0:12:56.429 Okay. Keeping what you've said in mind, what information is 0:12:56.429 --> 0:12:58.980 available now that will help us with our planning, we 0:12:58.980 --> 0:13:01.260 might not use it solely for our planning, as you say, 0:13:01.260 --> 0:13:02.939 but what are they saying? Is it going to be warmer? 0:13:02.940 --> 0:13:05.400 Is it going to be wetter? What can we use 0:13:05.400 --> 0:13:06.600 to help us plan? 0:13:07.800 --> 0:13:10.980 Well, I think as how the season's progressed now, I 0:13:10.980 --> 0:13:14.819 think we can probably rule out it being wetter for 0:13:14.820 --> 0:13:18.240 any benefit to the harvest season at the moment. Although 0:13:18.240 --> 0:13:21.870 if the La Nina event does come to fruition and 0:13:21.870 --> 0:13:25.500 it does actually bring some increased rainfall, we could experience 0:13:25.500 --> 0:13:28.440 a few little interruptions over that harvest period of time. 0:13:28.440 --> 0:13:30.810 But for the moment, I think you're pretty good to 0:13:30.840 --> 0:13:33.120 bet on. All options are on the table still, but 0:13:33.120 --> 0:13:35.940 it's looking very unlikely to be wet. Yes. Year on 0:13:35.970 --> 0:13:39.000 year data has been showing that our maximum daytime temperatures 0:13:39.000 --> 0:13:42.660 are constantly increasing. And interestingly, this year, though, we have 0:13:42.690 --> 0:13:46.290 been having some quite below average minimum temperatures. 0:13:46.320 --> 0:13:48.420 I was going to ask you about that, Kate, because 0:13:48.420 --> 0:13:51.090 it always feels like I don't know, it always feels 0:13:51.120 --> 0:13:53.189 like it. Maybe it's just that the frosts hurt us 0:13:53.190 --> 0:13:57.780 more when it's dry. Because what we did think we had, 0:13:57.809 --> 0:14:02.490 we don't anymore. Is there a correlation between dry years 0:14:02.490 --> 0:14:03.209 and frost? 0:14:03.240 --> 0:14:06.360 There is, because frost. For frosty conditions, you need those 0:14:06.360 --> 0:14:09.750 clear night skies for the cool temperatures to really come 0:14:09.750 --> 0:14:13.020 down and settle in on the surface. When you've got 0:14:13.020 --> 0:14:15.569 more rainfall around, you've got more cloud cover, which traps 0:14:15.570 --> 0:14:17.550 the warmth into the Earth's surface. And so you're less 0:14:17.550 --> 0:14:18.870 likely to see those frost events. 0:14:18.900 --> 0:14:20.400 You can just see, though, that there is a lot 0:14:20.430 --> 0:14:23.700 of pressure on climate forecasting, isn't there to have the answers? 0:14:24.090 --> 0:14:25.740 Talk to me about pressure systems. Yeah. 0:14:25.740 --> 0:14:29.010 So this year it's I would say weather wise, it's 0:14:29.010 --> 0:14:32.010 probably been the year of the high pressure system. It's 0:14:32.010 --> 0:14:34.830 had a major impact on our rainfall pretty much the 0:14:34.830 --> 0:14:38.100 whole growing season really. The reason why there's been rain 0:14:38.100 --> 0:14:40.440 on the forecast, we can see it there like a week, 0:14:40.440 --> 0:14:43.170 two weeks out and then it just disappears. And that's 0:14:43.170 --> 0:14:46.590 just because we are then being impacted by the weather systems. 0:14:46.590 --> 0:14:49.710 And it's just high pressure that's been dominating it, blocking 0:14:49.710 --> 0:14:52.280 any of those potential rain fronts getting to us. 0:14:52.280 --> 0:14:54.140 I feel like you've just hit the nail on the head, Kate, 0:14:54.140 --> 0:14:56.960 because I just feel like that's just been this year. Oh, yeah, 0:14:56.960 --> 0:14:58.970 there's some rain coming now. There's not. Oh yeah, there's 0:14:58.970 --> 0:15:02.240 some rain coming. And that's particularly we've seen that particularly 0:15:02.240 --> 0:15:06.260 in spring I think, which has hurt a lot. Do 0:15:06.260 --> 0:15:09.380 we know when these high pressure systems are about. 0:15:09.410 --> 0:15:11.420 Talking about high pressure systems are more of a weather 0:15:11.420 --> 0:15:14.660 related pattern. And so to be able to forecast those things, 0:15:14.660 --> 0:15:18.080 you've got 7 to 14 day window and you can't 0:15:18.080 --> 0:15:19.760 really go too much beyond that. 0:15:19.760 --> 0:15:23.420 So when the people that are saying next Tuesday we're 0:15:23.420 --> 0:15:26.540 going to get 1 to 5 mil, are they taking 0:15:26.540 --> 0:15:29.510 into account these high pressure systems that end up pushing 0:15:29.510 --> 0:15:30.920 it away or keeping it away? 0:15:30.920 --> 0:15:33.470 So when they're making that a week out, they yes, 0:15:33.470 --> 0:15:35.690 will have taken in the current pressure patterns at the 0:15:35.690 --> 0:15:38.960 time and looking at where they're likely to go. And 0:15:38.960 --> 0:15:42.350 then as the days develop and the pressure patterns have 0:15:42.350 --> 0:15:44.600 their own little mind and think of what they're going 0:15:44.630 --> 0:15:47.420 to do, they then change the forecast up because they've 0:15:47.420 --> 0:15:50.060 moved in a different direction, or they've strengthened over here. 0:15:50.060 --> 0:15:52.400 And then that's when we start to see that rain 0:15:52.550 --> 0:15:54.410 this year particularly disappear. 0:15:54.410 --> 0:15:56.600 So it's probably not the forecasters that we should be 0:15:56.600 --> 0:15:59.720 cross with. It should be the weather gods, the pressure systems. 0:15:59.720 --> 0:16:01.880 They seem like they're causing a lot of trouble. 0:16:01.910 --> 0:16:02.780 They are this year. 0:16:02.810 --> 0:16:05.600 Okay, that makes sense. Can you tell me anything else 0:16:05.600 --> 0:16:07.610 that's been having an effect this year? 0:16:07.640 --> 0:16:10.640 Probably the two big ones have been the high pressure 0:16:10.640 --> 0:16:14.690 that's dominating our weather patterns over this whole growing season 0:16:14.690 --> 0:16:17.180 and the impact of climate change, and just how that's 0:16:17.210 --> 0:16:20.510 not just impacting the way the forecasts are picking up 0:16:20.510 --> 0:16:24.080 on the different signs and signals as to what likely 0:16:24.080 --> 0:16:27.050 climate drivers are going to be doing, but also just 0:16:27.050 --> 0:16:30.710 their overall impact on our climate and weather patterns. We 0:16:30.710 --> 0:16:33.620 are in this uncharted territory, and the scientists are doing 0:16:33.620 --> 0:16:36.230 a great job trying to understand and go through the 0:16:36.230 --> 0:16:39.050 modeling and work out what impact is this having, why 0:16:39.080 --> 0:16:41.630 things aren't quite behaving as we expect, but it will 0:16:41.660 --> 0:16:42.620 be a slow process. 0:16:42.650 --> 0:16:44.510 Well, it's really hard, isn't it, because models are based 0:16:44.510 --> 0:16:47.480 on years and if this is new territory, then we 0:16:47.480 --> 0:16:49.690 can't really model on it. Yeah, so that's the tricky 0:16:49.690 --> 0:16:50.290 bit there. 0:16:50.320 --> 0:16:53.260 Something that's been actually interesting this year is I know 0:16:53.260 --> 0:16:55.060 some people give the bomb a bit of a bad rap, 0:16:55.060 --> 0:16:57.880 but if you've actually been looking at the model forecast 0:16:57.880 --> 0:16:59.860 for the bomb this year in comparison to the other 0:16:59.860 --> 0:17:03.550 international models, they've actually been pretty good on the forecast. 0:17:03.580 --> 0:17:07.870 So they were saying neutral. And so for pretty much 0:17:07.869 --> 0:17:10.780 this whole year, and that's what's actually been happening, where 0:17:10.810 --> 0:17:13.900 more of the international ones have been dipping down into 0:17:13.900 --> 0:17:16.419 that La Nina territory. And yeah, the Bom model has 0:17:16.420 --> 0:17:18.100 picked up that. No, I don't think that's actually going 0:17:18.130 --> 0:17:20.980 to happen. And so far it's actually not. 0:17:21.010 --> 0:17:22.990 But that doesn't sound newspapers does it. No it. 0:17:22.990 --> 0:17:27.550 Doesn't. And that is why. Would not make a very 0:17:27.550 --> 0:17:29.110 catchy headline at all. No it. 0:17:29.109 --> 0:17:31.300 Wouldn't. So I suppose that's something to factor in there, 0:17:31.300 --> 0:17:34.780 and probably something to keep in mind if you are 0:17:34.780 --> 0:17:37.270 hearing these things or reading these things, to just check 0:17:37.270 --> 0:17:39.250 back with what the bomb's predicting. 0:17:39.280 --> 0:17:42.550 Yeah, they've got some great communications out, not just on 0:17:42.550 --> 0:17:45.100 their website, but if you subscribe to their email list 0:17:45.100 --> 0:17:47.470 as well. And just putting out the the basic facts 0:17:47.470 --> 0:17:48.640 of where things are at. 0:17:48.670 --> 0:17:51.670 I'll link to those in the show notes. Was there 0:17:51.670 --> 0:17:54.700 anything else, Kate, you think our listeners might be interested 0:17:54.700 --> 0:17:56.859 in knowing or would help them plan? 0:17:57.130 --> 0:17:58.780 I don't think so. It's just it's been a really 0:17:58.780 --> 0:18:04.090 tough year, farming wise, to have forecasts, a potential likely 0:18:04.090 --> 0:18:07.990 outcome over spring, and then it's just not eventuating at all. 0:18:07.990 --> 0:18:10.720 And being pretty frustrated with how things have turned out. 0:18:10.720 --> 0:18:12.879 And I guess the positive spin is that if we 0:18:12.880 --> 0:18:14.950 do get some moisture, whilst it might not be good 0:18:14.950 --> 0:18:16.390 for this year, maybe we'll be able to top up 0:18:16.390 --> 0:18:21.100 our soil moisture levels. So next year, with whatever eventuates there, 0:18:21.100 --> 0:18:23.590 we might be able to recoup a little bit. 0:18:25.060 --> 0:18:27.490 If you love the podcast and would like to show 0:18:27.490 --> 0:18:30.940 your support, please rate us five stars. Wherever you listen 0:18:30.940 --> 0:18:33.700 to your podcasts and share it with your friends. We'll 0:18:33.700 --> 0:18:34.869 catch you again soon. 0:18:34.900 --> 0:18:39.130 BCG drives the prosperity of Australian farmers, communities and landscapes 0:18:39.130 --> 0:18:43.030 through applied research, innovation and events. To find out more 0:18:43.030 --> 0:18:45.940 about what we're up to, our team and events near you, 0:18:45.970 --> 0:18:48.669 visit BCG. Warrego.