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S3: This year, in terms of the IOD, it's just been
S3: sitting there in neutral. We've been just watching it, seeing
S3: if there's anything developing at the moment. There's a slight
S3: hint that it's looking like it could go a little
S3: bit negative IOD, which would actually increase our chances of
S3: some rainfall, but similar to the Pacific Ocean in the
S3: Indian Ocean, that is purely just based on a temperature
S3: difference between the Horn of Africa and the waters off
S3: the coast of Sumatra. Again, like the El Nino and
S3: La Nina patterns to develop, it's not just the sea
S3: surface temperatures that we need there to be in a
S3: certain pattern. We also need the trade winds, pressure patterns
S3: and the cloudiness also to come to the party there.
S3: And that's also not really happening at this point of
S3: time either.
S2: Welcome back to Shared Solutions by BCG. I'm Janine Batters
S2: in the second episode of our series planning for prosperity,
S2: I'm talking with our resident climate specialist, Kate Finger, and
S2: I'm going to be asking you, what is going on
S2: with these climate predictions. Welcome, Kate.
S3: Thanks, Janine.
S2: So I won't get Kate to introduce herself because we
S2: actually have a whole episode dedicated to meet Kate. So
S2: if you want to jump back and listen to that,
S2: by all means go do that. But we are going
S2: to jump straight in, Kate. So we've been experiencing some
S2: warmer weather. We haven't got a lot of rain yet.
S2: We've been hearing that it's supposed to be a wet spring.
S2: The same thing happened last year. They were talking El Nino. No.
S2: So what's going on?
S3: That is a jolly good question. And there is. Whilst
S3: it doesn't look like there's much going on, there's actually
S3: a lot going on climate wise. It's just not quite
S3: eventuating as to how we might be wishing it is.
S2: So there must be a reason, an underlying reason, Kate,
S2: why we keep hearing, particularly in the media, that it's
S2: going to be a wetter spring and it really hurts
S2: at the moment.
S3: Yeah. So Janine, there's a couple of things going on there.
S3: So the media is absolutely sensationalizing the climate forecasts and predictions.
S3: Their models are doing their runs. They're coming to a consensus.
S3: A cluster of them are suggesting that there is a
S3: potential for a La Nina to develop. The media latches
S3: on to that headline, and then the next thing, it's
S3: plastered around all the newspapers and making all the news
S3: that we're going to get a La Nina in summer,
S3: which is definitely possible. But there's also a lot going
S3: on with our climate that's also impacting what we're actually
S3: currently experiencing and likely to experience in the coming months
S3: as well. And it's the same thing that happened last year, too.
S3: The forecasts were things were aligning looking like we're going
S3: to get an El Nino, but just because it's looking
S3: like an El Nino is going to develop and it
S3: and the criteria is met for it to be called
S3: an El Nino, it doesn't guarantee, it doesn't mean that
S3: it's things are going to be dry. Anything is possible.
S3: It's just in that particular instance last year with the
S3: El Nino, all the possibilities were on the table, the
S3: models were skewing it towards a higher increased chance of drier.
S3: But there was that one little model run in the
S3: background there that was going, no, it's actually going to
S3: be wetter. And that's just what happened to eventuate in
S3: spring last year.
S2: When we get these predictions, are you talking more probabilities
S2: rather than this is going to happen or not?
S3: Yeah. So that's exactly right. Jeanine. We are talking these
S3: are more probabilities and giving us an idea that there's
S3: an increased chance or increased likelihood of something occurring, rather
S3: than when a forecast or outlook is given. This is
S3: definitely what is going to happen. And that's because how
S3: the models work is they run off a heap of
S3: model runs that are then generated behind the scenes, and
S3: then the forecast is where the majority of those models lie.
S3: So if you, for example, have 100 different model runs,
S3: and then in a year like this, there's an increased
S3: number of them suggesting a La Nina will develop. So
S3: for example, let's put some numbers around that. There's 60
S3: in the La Nina camp that is going to skew
S3: the forecast towards indicating there's an increased chance likelihood of
S3: a La Nina developing, but that's only 60 of the
S3: model runs, so there's another 30 in the background there
S3: that could be saying that it's likely to experience average conditions.
S3: And then there could be another ten in there saying
S3: that conditions could actually be dry. And it just so
S3: happens that this year it's those ten that are right.
S2: Spoken like a true scientist there, Kate. So really it's
S2: thinking about the language, the increased probability that we're going
S2: to get a wetter. So can you tell me at
S2: the moment what are the models saying now what is
S2: actually happening. Are we going to get a wetter spring.
S3: Yes. What the models are actually saying now is that
S3: both the Enso that's our La Nina El Nino area
S3: and our IOD Indian Ocean Dipole, both of those climate
S3: drivers are currently in the neutral phase, so all possibilities
S3: are on the table. There is some cooling in the
S3: Nino 3.4 box in the Pacific Ocean when that area
S3: cools down, and once it hits a certain threshold, that
S3: is what triggers a La Nina to be announced as
S3: a climate event officially underway. There is some activity in
S3: the ocean suggesting, and that's what a lot of the
S3: models are picking up on this cooling and going, oh look,
S3: there's some cooling there. There's potential that El Nino could develop.
S3: And they are suggesting that increased chances of one occurring
S3: towards the end of the year and into summer, but
S3: a lot more needs to occur for that to really
S3: have much of an impact on our climate. And it's
S3: looking like if it does develop, it will be quite
S3: weak and short lived. When we're talking about models, we're
S3: talking not just about the access model that the bureau have,
S3: but also it gets compared to a range of international
S3: models as well. And there the general consensus of those
S3: is for an increased likelihood of above average rainfall into
S3: that late spring summer period. But we need the wind
S3: patterns to be going in the right direction to bring
S3: moisture created up in the atmosphere across to mainland. Australia.
S3: We need the pressure patterns to be performing in the
S3: right way. So that those rain fronts can move across
S3: and deliver the rain. That is also something that's impacting
S3: our weather at the moment, and we also need the
S3: cloud patterns as well, to be able to have increased cloudiness,
S3: to be able to generate that rain.
S2: So how are all those other things looking, Kate?
S3: They are not looking like they want to come to
S3: the party this year. There's still opportunity for that to change,
S3: but at the moment they're not really showing up at all.
S3: So all the action is just in the ocean.
S2: Okay. What I'm thinking is normally I read your climate
S2: section in the technical bulletin. It's always very good. We
S2: normally start talking about the IOD in about July, and
S2: that's when you normally say that's when it's more likely to.
S2: We don't see anything before then isn't really accurate. Normally
S2: when we're talking about the IOD we're thinking spring. Great.
S2: We're going to get some rain early spring. But because
S2: it hasn't aligned yet, do you think that's playing a
S2: role that it's delayed. Yeah.
S3: In that autumn period, the climate drivers go through this
S3: reset phase, and that is one of the main reasons
S3: why they're not so accurate or good to be looking at,
S3: because they've done all their past year's activity. They're going
S3: back to neutral, and then they'll start ramping up and
S3: moving in a certain direction as the year progresses over
S3: that winter period that you're saying they're Janine, that is
S3: when we do start to see a bit more activity
S3: in those regions. That gives us a bit more confidence
S3: in those forecasts to see where the ocean temperatures, wind patterns,
S3: pressure patterns, where they're all aligning. And that's what's helping
S3: to drive whether an IOD event develops or an El
S3: Nino La Nina event develops this year. In terms of
S3: the IOD, it's just been sitting there in neutral. We've
S3: been just watching it, seeing if there's anything developing at
S3: the moment. There's a slight hint that it's looking like
S3: it could go a little bit negative IOD, which would
S3: actually increase our chances of some rainfall. But similar to
S3: the Pacific Ocean in the Indian Ocean, that is purely
S3: just based on a temperature difference between the Horn of
S3: Africa and the waters off the coast of Sumatra. Again,
S3: like the El Nino and La Nina patterns to develop,
S3: it's not just the sea surface temperatures that we need
S3: there to be in a certain pattern. We also need
S3: the trade winds, pressure patterns and the cloudiness also to
S3: come to the party there. And that's also not really
S3: happening at this point of time either.
S2: So in terms of the sea surface temperatures, I think
S2: I was reading that it's sitting at about I'm probably
S2: going to get this wrong, but about minus oh four
S2: or something. Is that right? And then but it has
S2: to reach minus seven and it has to sit there
S2: for a certain amount of time. Correct me Kate. Yeah.
S3: So that's in the key indicator box for whether the
S3: Bom declares an El Nino or La Nina event to
S3: be underway is there's a threshold that we want the
S3: sea surface temperature anomalies to be having a difference by.
S3: And it is currently sitting around that -0.4. But we
S3: need it to get up to that -0.8 for it
S3: to be declared in La Nina and for.
S2: A period of time.
S3: And for a period of time as well. Yes. How
S3: long is that? Can't quite remember. Off the top of
S3: my head, I think for an IOD, it needs around
S3: that eight week period to be above the threshold for
S3: it to be announced.
S2: Okay, so even though it might be creeping towards it,
S2: it's going to have to sit there for a while
S2: for it to even be declared. So we've probably got
S2: another what how many weeks?
S3: Yeah, a few, but we're talking a lot about meeting
S3: thresholds and things being declared. But we're in sort of
S3: a bit of unchartered territory at the moment with climate change,
S3: and that's having quite a big impact on sea surface
S3: temperatures around the globe. The sea is each year hearing
S3: reports that it's just been in. Overall temperatures are just
S3: constantly increasing. So in terms of all of the thresholds
S3: and things that we're using, they're not necessarily being super
S3: helpful because temperatures are higher year on year. In fact,
S3: we're trying to target that negative point eight of a
S3: temperature difference actually might not be triggering anymore for El
S3: Nino or La Nina event. The thresholds might actually be smaller,
S3: so even if we don't get there, it still doesn't
S3: mean that it's not going to be influencing our climate
S3: and rainfall patterns.
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S2: sizes and prices. It's becoming more unreliable, would you say?
S3: I think it's definitely making it very hard for anyone
S3: involved in climate forecasting and working with the models they
S3: work off of past events that helped shape their current
S3: predictions and go off. What's happened in the past and
S3: this is what the wave is looking like and things
S3: like that. But at the moment, unchartered territory with some
S3: of the temperatures that we are experiencing. And so as
S3: we have seen very much this year, they are really
S3: actually struggling to provide forecasts. But the very nature of
S3: climate forecasts is because they're based on probability. Definitely should
S3: not be taking them as gospel. You can't go that. Oh,
S3: the forecast was saying it was going to be wet
S3: for this month and we didn't get it. They got
S3: it wrong. You just can't do that because they're just
S3: based off probabilities.
S2: What advice would you give farmers now? And probably even
S2: moving into next year's planning, taking into account these predictions.
S3: I would definitely keep looking at your the apps that
S3: you're looking at for your weather forecasting, the bureau's website
S3: for the longer term range outlooks, and whatever else you
S3: use information wise to get your climate outlooks for the
S3: season ahead. Yes. They're not always right, but that's the
S3: nature of them. They are based on probabilities. There can
S3: be really good for getting an a bit of a
S3: feel or a flair for where the season's going to
S3: potentially end up, so they can help with if you
S3: have in the back of your mind, help with logistics
S3: and planning for, oh, it could end up this way.
S3: So maybe I'll just keep that in my thought process.
S3: But definitely don't take them as gospel and go that
S3: they said it's going to be a La Nina and
S3: spring by everything that I need to be able to
S3: manage my disease and stock up on urea, because it's
S3: going to be wet. That is not how you should
S3: be using climate forecasts at all.
S2: So hedge your bets, but maybe swing them a little
S2: bit more in one way with the predictions.
S3: Yes, and keep refining that to as you go along.
S3: So don't make that decision in January. I know that
S3: can be hard for some things which you might need
S3: to forward purchase, but even if you just got that
S3: little bit extra on hand, if that's what the forecast
S3: is looking like to help you, if it does eventuate
S3: because it's better to be prepared rather than unprepared.
S2: Okay. Keeping what you've said in mind, what information is
S2: available now that will help us with our planning, we
S2: might not use it solely for our planning, as you say,
S2: but what are they saying? Is it going to be warmer?
S2: Is it going to be wetter? What can we use
S2: to help us plan?
S3: Well, I think as how the season's progressed now, I
S3: think we can probably rule out it being wetter for
S3: any benefit to the harvest season at the moment. Although
S3: if the La Nina event does come to fruition and
S3: it does actually bring some increased rainfall, we could experience
S3: a few little interruptions over that harvest period of time.
S3: But for the moment, I think you're pretty good to
S3: bet on. All options are on the table still, but
S3: it's looking very unlikely to be wet. Yes. Year on
S3: year data has been showing that our maximum daytime temperatures
S3: are constantly increasing. And interestingly, this year, though, we have
S3: been having some quite below average minimum temperatures.
S2: I was going to ask you about that, Kate, because
S2: it always feels like I don't know, it always feels
S2: like it. Maybe it's just that the frosts hurt us
S2: more when it's dry. Because what we did think we had,
S2: we don't anymore. Is there a correlation between dry years
S2: and frost?
S3: There is, because frost. For frosty conditions, you need those
S3: clear night skies for the cool temperatures to really come
S3: down and settle in on the surface. When you've got
S3: more rainfall around, you've got more cloud cover, which traps
S3: the warmth into the Earth's surface. And so you're less
S3: likely to see those frost events.
S2: You can just see, though, that there is a lot
S2: of pressure on climate forecasting, isn't there to have the answers?
S2: Talk to me about pressure systems. Yeah.
S3: So this year it's I would say weather wise, it's
S3: probably been the year of the high pressure system. It's
S3: had a major impact on our rainfall pretty much the
S3: whole growing season really. The reason why there's been rain
S3: on the forecast, we can see it there like a week,
S3: two weeks out and then it just disappears. And that's
S3: just because we are then being impacted by the weather systems.
S3: And it's just high pressure that's been dominating it, blocking
S3: any of those potential rain fronts getting to us.
S2: I feel like you've just hit the nail on the head, Kate,
S2: because I just feel like that's just been this year. Oh, yeah,
S2: there's some rain coming now. There's not. Oh yeah, there's
S2: some rain coming. And that's particularly we've seen that particularly
S2: in spring I think, which has hurt a lot. Do
S2: we know when these high pressure systems are about.
S3: Talking about high pressure systems are more of a weather
S3: related pattern. And so to be able to forecast those things,
S3: you've got 7 to 14 day window and you can't
S3: really go too much beyond that.
S2: So when the people that are saying next Tuesday we're
S2: going to get 1 to 5 mil, are they taking
S2: into account these high pressure systems that end up pushing
S2: it away or keeping it away?
S3: So when they're making that a week out, they yes,
S3: will have taken in the current pressure patterns at the
S3: time and looking at where they're likely to go. And
S3: then as the days develop and the pressure patterns have
S3: their own little mind and think of what they're going
S3: to do, they then change the forecast up because they've
S3: moved in a different direction, or they've strengthened over here.
S3: And then that's when we start to see that rain
S3: this year particularly disappear.
S2: So it's probably not the forecasters that we should be
S2: cross with. It should be the weather gods, the pressure systems.
S2: They seem like they're causing a lot of trouble.
S3: They are this year.
S2: Okay, that makes sense. Can you tell me anything else
S2: that's been having an effect this year?
S3: Probably the two big ones have been the high pressure
S3: that's dominating our weather patterns over this whole growing season
S3: and the impact of climate change, and just how that's
S3: not just impacting the way the forecasts are picking up
S3: on the different signs and signals as to what likely
S3: climate drivers are going to be doing, but also just
S3: their overall impact on our climate and weather patterns. We
S3: are in this uncharted territory, and the scientists are doing
S3: a great job trying to understand and go through the
S3: modeling and work out what impact is this having, why
S3: things aren't quite behaving as we expect, but it will
S3: be a slow process.
S2: Well, it's really hard, isn't it, because models are based
S2: on years and if this is new territory, then we
S2: can't really model on it. Yeah, so that's the tricky
S2: bit there.
S3: Something that's been actually interesting this year is I know
S3: some people give the bomb a bit of a bad rap,
S3: but if you've actually been looking at the model forecast
S3: for the bomb this year in comparison to the other
S3: international models, they've actually been pretty good on the forecast.
S3: So they were saying neutral. And so for pretty much
S3: this whole year, and that's what's actually been happening, where
S3: more of the international ones have been dipping down into
S3: that La Nina territory. And yeah, the Bom model has
S3: picked up that. No, I don't think that's actually going
S3: to happen. And so far it's actually not.
S2: But that doesn't sound newspapers does it. No it.
S3: Doesn't. And that is why. Would not make a very
S3: catchy headline at all. No it.
S2: Wouldn't. So I suppose that's something to factor in there,
S2: and probably something to keep in mind if you are
S2: hearing these things or reading these things, to just check
S2: back with what the bomb's predicting.
S3: Yeah, they've got some great communications out, not just on
S3: their website, but if you subscribe to their email list
S3: as well. And just putting out the the basic facts
S3: of where things are at.
S2: I'll link to those in the show notes. Was there
S2: anything else, Kate, you think our listeners might be interested
S2: in knowing or would help them plan?
S3: I don't think so. It's just it's been a really
S3: tough year, farming wise, to have forecasts, a potential likely
S3: outcome over spring, and then it's just not eventuating at all.
S3: And being pretty frustrated with how things have turned out.
S3: And I guess the positive spin is that if we
S3: do get some moisture, whilst it might not be good
S3: for this year, maybe we'll be able to top up
S3: our soil moisture levels. So next year, with whatever eventuates there,
S3: we might be able to recoup a little bit.
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