Speaker 1: And we continue at what five in the afternoon on
Speaker 1: the John Phillips Show, Mister Randy Weggs in Culver City.
Speaker 2: John, while residents of Garden Grove are no longer under
Speaker 2: the imminent threat of a chemical plant explosion, that chemical
Speaker 2: plant is now cleaning the broken pipe, and apparently it
Speaker 2: is leading to the worst odor you can imagine wafting
Speaker 2: all through Orange County.
Speaker 3: You can smell right here.
Speaker 2: That sounds appetizing. What do you think that whole situation
Speaker 2: with the chemical plant is going to do to property
Speaker 2: values in Garden Grove? I don't know, but I'm glad
Speaker 2: I moved.
Speaker 1: Eight hundred two two two five two two two is
Speaker 1: a telephone number one eight hundred two two two five
Speaker 1: two two two. It is our pleasure to welcome our
Speaker 1: next guest to the program is a Republican political strategist
Speaker 1: who you can follow on exit the Thomas Guide, John Thomas.
Speaker 4: Welcome, Hey, John Rich do ad.
Speaker 1: So let's go ahead and start out with the governor's
Speaker 1: race here in California. We still don't have an official
Speaker 1: call from the Secretary of State's office that the November
Speaker 1: ballot will feature Javier Bessera and Steve Hilton. But it's
Speaker 1: certainly looking that way.
Speaker 4: Yeah, sure does I mean it isn't. It isn't beyond
Speaker 4: the realm of possibility that Tom Steyer does sneak into
Speaker 4: a top two, but probably not likely at this pace
Speaker 4: of the returns coming in. So this kind of landed John,
Speaker 4: you know when we spoke a couple of days ago,
Speaker 4: this landed pretty much right as we kind of suspected
Speaker 4: enough of the Republicans coalesced around Hilton to kind of
Speaker 4: make him him the top person, and Bessarah used the
Speaker 4: kind of last minute establishment play to kind of be
Speaker 4: the guy. And I guess it proves that money is
Speaker 4: important in politics, but not everything, because Tom Syre, now
Speaker 4: I think, has burnt up over half a billion dollars
Speaker 4: in his runs for office and has absolutely nothing to
Speaker 4: show forth.
Speaker 1: What do you make of Tom Steyers framing. He framed
Speaker 1: himself in this race as the billionaire communist, and he
Speaker 1: got a lot of the left wingers in the Democratic
Speaker 1: Party to get behind him. He got a lot of
Speaker 1: the left wing on x and all the social media
Speaker 1: platforms as San Piker and people like that. But what
Speaker 1: if instead of branding himself as the communist billionaire. He
Speaker 1: branded himself as a partisan Democrat who is a smart
Speaker 1: businessman and knows how to run the state more efficiently.
Speaker 1: Looking back at it, would that have been a better
Speaker 1: way to sell himself to voters.
Speaker 4: That's an interesting question. I'm not sure John, that any
Speaker 4: framing really would have saved him, because he's run The
Speaker 4: underlying political climate is so antithetical and against rich people,
Speaker 4: particularly billionaires, that no matter how he framed himself, it
Speaker 4: would probably be spun against him because his underlying core
Speaker 4: identity is out of step with the modern Democratic Party.
Speaker 4: He's a whiter than white guy. That kind of is
Speaker 4: not cool. And he's incredibly rich, and he made a
Speaker 4: lot of his money, you know, in fossil fuels and
Speaker 4: other things that are the complete opposite of what the
Speaker 4: Democratic Party likes to consider to be virtuous. So I
Speaker 4: hear you, John, If he had framed himself that way,
Speaker 4: I think they would have. The left would have pigeonholed
Speaker 4: him as a corporate raider, you know, just a big
Speaker 4: corporation guy. So he probably went where he thought would
Speaker 4: be the safest. But it just isn't believable. And a
Speaker 4: resident that he believed his real position there. So it
Speaker 4: didn't work and I'm not sure that voters really want
Speaker 4: a guy like Tom Steyron office.
Speaker 1: Was Katie Porter's campaign over the moment though that video
Speaker 1: came out of her swearing at a staffer.
Speaker 4: One hundred percent it was done. She just didn't realize
Speaker 4: it at that point. And the reason is that that
Speaker 4: video confirmed the suspicions that some of the electorate had
Speaker 4: about her, which is that she's not a nice person,
Speaker 4: and she's not she doesn't empathize with voters like us,
Speaker 4: and so it decuted her because it shined a light
Speaker 4: on her underlying weakness. It just exposed it, and there
Speaker 4: really was no recovery because John she's not a nice person.
Speaker 4: She doesn't come off in interviews as nice. In fact,
Speaker 4: she kind of leaned into that persona when she was
Speaker 4: a member of Congress, with her persona in Congress that
Speaker 4: she wags her finger at you. So she was kind
Speaker 4: of damned once that video came out. It just I
Speaker 4: think she was the last person to realize that.
Speaker 1: Why didn't she just lean into it? Because I think
Speaker 1: that Democrats respond well to Karen's and she is probably
Speaker 1: the chief Karen in California politics. Instead of trying to
Speaker 1: pretend like you're the homemaker that's baking cookies for your
Speaker 1: kids and their friends, which no one ever bought into
Speaker 1: with her, why not just say, yeah, I'm a nasty woman,
Speaker 1: and I'm going to go be nasty to all the
Speaker 1: people that you hate, and I'm going to make life
Speaker 1: miserable for them, and that's just who I am, and
Speaker 1: I'm going to kick ass and take names.
Speaker 4: Yeah, that's what she should have done, for sure. First
Speaker 4: of all, it would have been incredible, believable and authentic.
Speaker 4: But also, you know, Donald Trump did something similar. You
Speaker 4: may recall him sixteen when people said he's not a
Speaker 4: nice guy, he's a bully, and he basically said, yeah,
Speaker 4: I'm a bully, but I'm not a schoolyard bully. I'm
Speaker 4: a bully for you. And that really stuck because the
Speaker 4: electorate wanted somebody who's going to you know, stick it
Speaker 4: to China, et cetera. And that worked and we believed it.
Speaker 4: When Katie was running saying I'm a nice person, it
Speaker 4: just didn't make any sense because everybody knew that to
Speaker 4: be untrue, so it ended up becoming disingenuous. I think
Speaker 4: the real root of it with Katie is she doesn't
Speaker 4: want to think of herself as not a nice person,
Speaker 4: so even though she isn't nice, so she couldn't lean
Speaker 4: into that too deeply because it would probably undermine how
Speaker 4: she views herself.
Speaker 1: Is that common in politics when you've worked for people
Speaker 1: in the past, and I'm not going to ask for
Speaker 1: any names who are not nice? People who are empirically
Speaker 1: not nice people? Do they know it? Are they aware
Speaker 1: of it? Or do they think that they're nice? And
Speaker 1: it's the rest of the world with the problem.
Speaker 4: One hundred percent of the time they think it's everybody
Speaker 4: else and they're the nice, nice people. And sometimes you
Speaker 4: got to crack a few eggs and make an omelet
Speaker 4: you know, that's how they But usually it's pointing fingers
Speaker 4: that you know, Oh, it's the staffer who's the idiot.
Speaker 4: It's it's always somebody else's fault. So, yes, they're one
Speaker 4: hundred percent in denial and it and it running for
Speaker 4: office kind of attracts that persona John of like the
Speaker 4: egotistical persona. So it's a really nice safe haven because
Speaker 4: when you do get elected, typically you have nothing but
Speaker 4: yes people around you, So it kind of reinforces that
Speaker 4: you're the good one everybody else is in.
Speaker 1: Matt Mayhon is a candidate who had all the money
Speaker 1: in the world. He had profile pieces written about him
Speaker 1: in all the big newspapers. There was a lot of
Speaker 1: fanfare with his campaign. The tech industry wanted him to
Speaker 1: be governor in the worst possible way. The tech industry,
Speaker 1: as we know, really got kicked in the teeth all
Speaker 1: over the ballot earlier this week, not just with Matt Mayhon,
Speaker 1: but there is a vote and I think it was
Speaker 1: Monterey Park to ban data centers and other interests that
Speaker 1: they had on the ballot did not do well. Do
Speaker 1: you think that association with him was poison and more
Speaker 1: poison than he ever imagined it would be.
Speaker 4: Think, yeah, I think it was a one two punched on.
Speaker 4: On the one hand, he positioned himself out of the
Speaker 4: gate incorrectly, which is that he's a moderate Democrat, and
Speaker 4: moderate politics just simply doesn't sell in a state as
Speaker 4: blue as California, So that was a disqualifier. In the
Speaker 4: second is, yeah, he wrapped himself around these people, these
Speaker 4: backers that are largely deeply unpopular right now in the
Speaker 4: tech sector. I mean almost universally, from Republicans, the Democrats, Independence,
Speaker 4: young people to old people, they're all they are all
Speaker 4: deeply wary for their own reasons of tech leaders. And
Speaker 4: so yeah, it just it was doomed. And you saw
Speaker 4: John Matt Mayheon kind of toward the tail end in
Speaker 4: his advertising. He started to do like a subtle pivot
Speaker 4: to leaning into him being a Democrat by using the
Speaker 4: word Democrat and his ads on screen and whatnot. But
Speaker 4: it just it wasn't voters were believing.
Speaker 1: Do you think Kamala Harris, who everyone thought was going
Speaker 1: to run and run away with this office and people
Speaker 1: wouldn't be paying much attention to this election because she'd
Speaker 1: come into it with almost universal name id, a fundraising
Speaker 1: list that could get her all the money that she
Speaker 1: needed to mount a very serious campaign. Do you think
Speaker 1: she's looking at this and thinking to herself, I made
Speaker 1: a mistake. I should have run, or oh boy, I'm
Speaker 1: glad I didn't put myself through that gauntlet of abuse.
Speaker 4: You know, I know the type. And I think she's
Speaker 4: segmenting it in two ways. If I had to bet,
Speaker 4: one is she says I could have had it. If
Speaker 4: I wanted, I would have walked in and had it,
Speaker 4: so she probably believed that to be true. But I
Speaker 4: think the real core reason she didn't run was not
Speaker 4: because she didn't think she couldn't win. It's because she
Speaker 4: didn't want the job. Because being a governor in the
Speaker 4: state of California is a lot of work. There's a
Speaker 4: lot of pressure, particularly the really disaster management, and that's
Speaker 4: Kamala is not up to that job, and I think
Speaker 4: she knows it. So I really don't think she wanted
Speaker 4: the job, because if she did, John, you got to
Speaker 4: think that she would have thrown her hat the ring.
Speaker 1: Steve Hilton is now trying to do something that no
Speaker 1: Republican has done since Arnold Swarzenegger did it when he
Speaker 1: ran for re election in two thousand and six. If
Speaker 1: he were to call you up and say, John, I
Speaker 1: need your advice, what should I do?
Speaker 2: How should I run this race? What would you tell him?
Speaker 4: Well, first, assuming the numbers hold and he comes in
Speaker 4: the first first place, I think I would try to
Speaker 4: milk that. You know, for as much as as it's worth.
Speaker 4: Is that out of all those choices for governor, you know,
Speaker 4: Steve was the number one choice. Secondly, you've got to
Speaker 4: spend time in areas of the state and media outlets
Speaker 4: that you're uncomfortable with because you're going to have to
Speaker 4: talk to voters who normally wouldn't be part of the
Speaker 4: traditional Republican coalition. And so, but before you go, and
Speaker 4: Steve is obviously a pro, he's very articulate, he's really
Speaker 4: good in interviews. He does a great job on your
Speaker 4: show and others. But he's got to come armed with
Speaker 4: third party validators that different segments that are not Republican
Speaker 4: of the elector in California. Trust. So the very first thing,
Speaker 4: quietly he has to do is start racking up endorsements.
Speaker 4: I would try to go get the Matt and Mahan's.
Speaker 4: I would try to score a Democrat that nobody thinks
Speaker 4: Steve has any business getting, you know, I mean, heck,
Speaker 4: it could be a Katie Porter or something along those lines.
Speaker 4: And then getting the Chambers, law Enforcement, etc. And he's
Speaker 4: got to go door to door in those communities, particularly
Speaker 4: with Latinos, and make the.
Speaker 1: Case what do you think we can learn out of
Speaker 1: this race for the upcoming presidential primaries. As Democratic candidates
Speaker 1: are watching the results, they're watching how these candidates did,
Speaker 1: which ones performed well? Which ones didn't same thing with
Speaker 1: the Republicans. What do you think we've learned about the
Speaker 1: twenty twenty eight primaries.
Speaker 4: Well, one is money is important, but it's not everything.
Speaker 4: That's clear. Second is you both have to have a message.
Speaker 4: On the Democratic side, and this has been consistent I
Speaker 4: think for a few cycles, Democrats value identity more than
Speaker 4: they do message and policy. So the marriage is important
Speaker 4: of those two things. But you know, if you're Gavin Nussom,
Speaker 4: you have to be looking at this thing going, oh, man,
Speaker 4: I'm a white guy. Not much I can do about that.
Speaker 4: So he's going to start out at a little bit
Speaker 4: of a deficit there. So I have to imagine, you know,
Speaker 4: as you go into the presidential cycle, you're going to
Speaker 4: you see a lot of minorities on the Democratic side running.
Speaker 4: Republicans seem to make their choice based more upon merit
Speaker 4: and qualifications. On a messaging standpoint, I think we have
Speaker 4: to basically look at the Republicans kind of seem to
Speaker 4: come home to the favorite. I know, John, you were
Speaker 4: kind of mixed on, you know, which Republican is the right,
Speaker 4: But it looks like Steve kind of was always always
Speaker 4: the guy. And then and then The other John is
Speaker 4: we've got to be disciplined on message. Domestic issues are
Speaker 4: the big issues. I think we really as Republicans have
Speaker 4: to be careful not to stray away and talk about
Speaker 4: foreign policy. They have to talk about domestic things like jobs,
Speaker 4: et cetera. And then the last thing John is we
Speaker 4: can't ignore the populist wave against AI. That is a
Speaker 4: big sensitivity issue and it also wraps around in affordability
Speaker 4: and energy issue. Those are issues that our team's going
Speaker 4: to have to speak to to try to ride that
Speaker 4: populist wave as we go into the midterms.
Speaker 1: Let's shift gears here and talk about the LA mayor's race.
Speaker 1: Right now, we have Karen Bass and for Spencer Pratt
Speaker 1: and second Nitya Rahman in third. Spencer's about seven points
Speaker 1: ahead of her. Last time I checked, the betting markets,
Speaker 1: which had Spencer as a huge favorite to make the runoff,
Speaker 1: have turned on him, and boy.
Speaker 2: Did they turn with a vengeance.
Speaker 1: They now have him at a one to three chance
Speaker 1: at making the runoff and people are laying money down
Speaker 1: on Mitthia Rahman leapfrogging him to the November ballot. Who
Speaker 1: do you think is going to be on that November ballot,
Speaker 1: once all the ballots are counted.
Speaker 4: Now, this is a really fascinating question. I've spent some
Speaker 4: time looking at the numbers to try to make heads
Speaker 4: or tails here, and I can tell you I'm not
Speaker 4: one hundred percent certain of who of which one is
Speaker 4: going to make that second position slot. But I can
Speaker 4: tell you how I think you should analyze it. In
Speaker 4: the comparison. You may remember John that when Rick Caruso
Speaker 4: ran against Karen Bass that on election night, I believe
Speaker 4: Rick Caruso is running ahead of Bass, but then over
Speaker 4: time as more ballots came in, bass overtook Caruso. And
Speaker 4: I think that's what the betting markets are kind of
Speaker 4: looking at that from behind acrat ballots to carry a
Speaker 4: Ramen over a Pratt. Except it's not really an even
Speaker 4: one for one comparison here because back when Bass was running,
Speaker 4: she was the only prominent Democrat, So almost a vast
Speaker 4: majority of late ballots that were Democratic, we're going to
Speaker 4: go to Bass and not and not Caruso. Whereas in
Speaker 4: this case you have Bass, who's a prominent Democrat, maybe
Speaker 4: not a hard left winger, but she is a Democrat
Speaker 4: who's taking some of those Democratic lad votes, so it's
Speaker 4: not a kind of a one for one for Ramen
Speaker 4: like bass enjoyed in the last round. So here's what
Speaker 4: I'm thinking right now. As the ballots updates have been
Speaker 4: coming in, Ramen has been picking up speed disproportionately to Pratt,
Speaker 4: except she has been winning on average when the ballots
Speaker 4: tranches have come in. Ramen's been picking up about eleven
Speaker 4: percent over Pratt. By my calculus, she needs to get
Speaker 4: a out fourteen to sixteen percent per dump of votes
Speaker 4: ahead to catch up. So if the current trend continues,
Speaker 4: I think she'll come up about two thousand votes shy
Speaker 4: of Pratt staying in the third place. But here's the wildcard, John.
Speaker 4: This is why can't take a position. It depends where
Speaker 4: these ballots are coming from. If these ballots these drop,
Speaker 4: the ballots are going to be coming from Democratic strongholds
Speaker 4: where they're just tons of Democrats. There probably are enough
Speaker 4: in those piles to allow a Ramen maybe to get
Speaker 4: a twenty percent ahead a thirty percent on a batch approach,
Speaker 4: which could change the calculus. But as it stands today,
Speaker 4: if the returns are steady, it will tighten. But I
Speaker 4: think Ramen comes up slightly short, So it's a long
Speaker 4: winded answer.
Speaker 1: We'll see And I can only imagine what it's like
Speaker 1: if you work in this business as a strategistic you
Speaker 1: have skin in the game with one of these campaigns.
Speaker 1: But as someone who covers this for a living, I
Speaker 1: cannot believe that we put up with this. I cannot
Speaker 1: believe that we allow them to take this long to
Speaker 1: count the ballots and we don't have an answer on
Speaker 1: election night. They could do it in a couple hours
Speaker 1: in Brazil, they could do it in India, they can
Speaker 1: do it in these third world countries all over the globe.
Speaker 1: We are the home to Silicon Valley and it takes
Speaker 1: a month and a half for us to count the ballots.
Speaker 2: It's disgraceful.
Speaker 4: Well one hundred percent, And don't even wind me up
Speaker 4: about not having voter ID because what happens, John, Let's
Speaker 4: just hypothetically say that I that it gets down in
Speaker 4: the for a second place finish and this mayor's race
Speaker 4: down to five hundred votes, which I mean it could
Speaker 4: very well could. Well, then how do we know that
Speaker 4: those five hundred voters were actual voters? We don't really
Speaker 4: know that. So my pro tip both to the Roman campaign,
Speaker 4: but also to the Pratt campaign. Is right now, if
Speaker 4: you were Spencer Pratt, you need to be lawyering up
Speaker 4: and getting ballot watchers because if this thing comes down
Speaker 4: and you lose, flip into third place by a few
Speaker 4: hundred votes or even a thousand votes, you need to
Speaker 4: go through those ballots and inspect them and try to
Speaker 4: ensure that ballots with improper signatures, et cetera disqualify because
Speaker 4: if you were shy just a few hundred votes, John,
Speaker 4: I've flipped plenty elections in places like Orange County and
Speaker 4: others in local elections by dqing bad ballots. So, but
Speaker 4: there's a tight window of time to do that, and
Speaker 4: if you don't have the team and infrastructure in place,
Speaker 4: you miss the window and you can't go back and
Speaker 4: undo it.
Speaker 1: Last question before you go, I would imagine that some
Speaker 1: of these late ballots that are coming in they're provisional ballots.
Speaker 1: They are ballots that were dumped at the very last minute.
Speaker 1: Who which organization is best at getting those in right
Speaker 1: under the wire? Is it the DSA or is it
Speaker 1: the Democratic Party? Because if it's the DSA, those are
Speaker 1: going to be Roman ballots. If it's the Democratic Party.
Speaker 1: They're going to be bast ballots.
Speaker 4: It's a great question, and it's one hundred percent of DSA.
Speaker 4: And we know that because we see it all the
Speaker 4: time in La City contest. This is how a lot
Speaker 4: of the DSA candidates have bested the more establishment union
Speaker 4: backed Democrats. We've seen it time and time again. They
Speaker 4: are better organizers, they're better ballot harvesters. So, yes, you're
Speaker 4: exactly right, it would favor Ramen. And I have to
Speaker 4: think that there are probably some heavy tranches of Democratic
Speaker 4: ballots just proportionally that'll be released and that'll favor Ramen.
Speaker 4: But she has to have that happen a few extra times.
Speaker 4: So look, if there were ever a scenario, John, where
Speaker 4: a third place candidate could sneak into second, Ramen has
Speaker 4: all the special ingredients right now to sneak into a
Speaker 4: second place.
Speaker 1: All right, John Thomas, Republican political strategist. You can follow
Speaker 1: him on exit the Thomas Guide. John, thanks so much
Speaker 1: for stopping by. Thanks again, John, eight hundred two two
Speaker 1: two five two two. Who ease the telephone number one
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Speaker 1: Well one of the threats that the Democrats faced in
Speaker 1: this last election was that they would get locked off
Speaker 1: the November ballot in the governor's race. That was something
Speaker 1: that the Democratic Party certainly took very seriously and they
Speaker 1: avoided that from happening. We don't know which candidates will
Speaker 1: make the November ballot quite yet. It's looking like Steve
Speaker 1: Hilton and Javier Basera, but it won't be Steve Hilton
Speaker 1: and Chad Bianco. To Republicans, however, it looks like there
Speaker 1: will be at least one lockout on the ballot in
Speaker 1: November in a statewide election.
Speaker 2: The race for California Insurance Commissioner. And let me go
Speaker 2: ahead and pull up the latest numbers on this because
Speaker 2: it's being updated like everything else. Let's go to California
Speaker 2: state wides. Let's go to insurance commissioner. Currently advancing to
Speaker 2: the general with twenty three percent support is Jane Kim,
Speaker 2: the San Francisco supervisor who is running on a single
Speaker 2: payer style system for homeowners' insurance. She is the winner.
Speaker 2: In second place, it's State Senator Ben Allen, who is
Speaker 2: the state center of the Palisades area. He's at nineteen
Speaker 2: percent and behind him is the Republican candidate on Steve
Speaker 2: Hilton's ticket, Stacy Corse Garden. She's at seventeen percent, So
Speaker 2: it is very much looking at least right now, if
Speaker 2: these numbers hold, then and it is going to be
Speaker 2: a dem on dem race for insurance commissioner.
Speaker 1: Now here's an interesting question, and this, I guess is
Speaker 1: more of a process question than anything. I know that
Speaker 1: the insurance commissioner is duly elected, cannot be fired by
Speaker 1: the governor, cannot be appointed by the governor. Only the
Speaker 1: people can elect an insurance commissioner or vote them out.
Speaker 1: If this Jane kimwoman ends up winning and she ran
Speaker 1: on the platform of some socialist version of insurance and
Speaker 1: she wants to get rid of private insurance, I don't
Speaker 1: think she can do that from that office alone. I
Speaker 1: think that she would have to get the legislature to
Speaker 1: vote on that and the governor to sign it.
Speaker 2: Correct, as far as I know, you don't have the
Speaker 2: power in that office to just create a public insurance system.
Speaker 2: Maybe you do, but it would seem that you would
Speaker 2: need legislation to go for that. But what this is
Speaker 2: show is there is at least twenty five percent support
Speaker 2: from the electorate four, and I would argue the reason
Speaker 2: for that is because people are really pissed off at
Speaker 2: our insurance companies, and our current insurance commissioner, to basing,
Speaker 2: is rarely comfortable you.
Speaker 1: And if you're wondering why Ricardo Laura's name wasn't on
Speaker 1: your ballot this time around, he has served two terms
Speaker 1: inexplicably as insurance commissioner, and he's termed out.
Speaker 2: I'm very kind of sketch. And you noticed that, uh
Speaker 2: heh didn't running for anything else.
Speaker 1: No, a guy who has spent his entire life in
Speaker 1: elected office did not lose an election, just got turned
Speaker 1: out from an office, which usually means they find something
Speaker 1: else to run for. He didn't run for lieutenant governor.
Speaker 1: He didn't run for county supervisor, he didn't run for Congress.
Speaker 1: He's done as far as we know, because his reputation
Speaker 1: is so awful.
Speaker 2: Of course, if you hear his side of the story,
Speaker 2: he claims that he can't run for anything else because
Speaker 2: he did the hard work of fixing our broken insurance system.
Speaker 6: I may be criticized and dragged through the mud for
Speaker 6: it and get my wig snatched. As the gay.
Speaker 2: Guys say, oh yeah, He really did a solid for
Speaker 2: the people, didn't he. You know, now that we're in
Speaker 2: Pride month, how many DJ Kitty Glitter concerts is he
Speaker 2: going to go to? Oh as a lame duck in
Speaker 2: the final year, I would be surprised if she showed
Speaker 2: up to the office once. Well, let's hear a breakdown
Speaker 2: on who is running for Insurance Commissioner and what this
Speaker 2: runoff might look like. Here is NBCLA.
Speaker 5: Returning now to our Decision twenty twenty six coverage and
Speaker 5: a look at some results still coming in there. Ellie
Speaker 5: County sheriff looking to keep his post. Right now, he
Speaker 5: has opened up a sizeable lead over former sheriff Alex Bianuiba. However,
Speaker 5: Luna must win more than half of the vote to
Speaker 5: avoid a runoff. If he falls short here, the two
Speaker 5: could face off again in November.
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's definitely going to happen. Yeah, he was in
Speaker 2: what the thirties or forties and Luna is not getting
Speaker 2: in up to fifty percent. That's just not happened. Maybe
Speaker 2: it will, but right now it looks like it's going
Speaker 2: to be a run up. Now, can Vienna Wava win?
Speaker 2: Who knows?
Speaker 6: Also a very important race with a widespread impact on California.
Speaker 6: Who will be the next insurance commissioner. Two Democrats lead
Speaker 6: the race here, former San Francisco Supervisor Jane Kim and
Speaker 6: Santa Monica State Senator Ben Allen, who is about to
Speaker 6: be termed out.
Speaker 7: All right, in our.
Speaker 2: Kathy musical chairs moves again.
Speaker 5: All right, and in our Kathy Vara has been following
Speaker 5: this race closely. She will join us later on to
Speaker 5: discuss this more.
Speaker 2: But yeah, someone just screamed in an air We don't
Speaker 2: have Kathy go to Conan.
Speaker 7: To discuss this more.
Speaker 5: But yeah, I mean a lot of people are interested
Speaker 5: to hear about the insurance commissioner.
Speaker 6: Well, it's a one complaint we've had. We're going to
Speaker 6: bring Conan back in one complaint we've had in terms
Speaker 6: of the fires, people underinsured, people not having I.
Speaker 2: Mean, there's few complaints, but that's a big one.
Speaker 6: Insurance companies step up. People having their policies canceled either
Speaker 6: just before or right after the fires. Insurance is a
Speaker 6: big problem in the state.
Speaker 7: You nail it, That's exactly right.
Speaker 2: This is a I don't know if Colleen nailed it.
Speaker 2: She got warm. Let's just say that.
Speaker 7: You nailed it. That's exactly right.
Speaker 3: This is a this is a low down ballot race.
Speaker 3: A lot of people don't care about and tell Palisades
Speaker 3: and eaton. And now all of a sudden, this is
Speaker 3: huge news because it's not just about those neighborhoods, those communities,
Speaker 3: massive communities.
Speaker 2: And you could definitely say, well, yeah, obviously, you know
Speaker 2: the insurance company, the insurance commissioner is responsible for some
Speaker 2: of this disaster because it was the conditions in California
Speaker 2: that led to all these companies pulling out. But I'm
Speaker 2: telling you right now, the people that probably voted for
Speaker 2: Jane Kim that want to really stick it to State
Speaker 2: Farm are the ones who are still waiting for their
Speaker 2: claims to be settled. A year and a half later.
Speaker 1: Nothing is working on any level regarding insurance in the
Speaker 1: state of California right now. And I know that people
Speaker 1: don't like the status quo, they don't like what's going
Speaker 1: on right now. I just don't think that they have
Speaker 1: an idea as to what they want in place of it.
Speaker 2: And that's the problem. Well, nobody has a good answer.
Speaker 2: We saw so many of these governor's debates where they
Speaker 2: were asked about the insurance crisis, and every single one
Speaker 2: of them said, well, here's all the things we need
Speaker 2: to do, which are all the things that Ricardo Laura
Speaker 2: already implemented and have not worked. Yeah, I don't think
Speaker 2: many of them have ideas.
Speaker 3: But it's about everybody else. Insurance is unaffordable as a result. Now, Kim,
Speaker 3: you pointed out, she's a former San Francisco supervisor, very liberal,
Speaker 3: she has Bernie Sanders' support.
Speaker 7: Her campaign has been hard line against the insurance.
Speaker 2: Vote for Kim as an f you to state farm
Speaker 2: and I totally understand it. I don't think I do
Speaker 2: that though.
Speaker 7: Her campaign has been hard line. Again, it's the insurance industry.
Speaker 3: Some would say too hard because you know they can
Speaker 3: pull out, you know, and they have exact.
Speaker 6: Some major companies that have pulled out of the state
Speaker 6: of California. They're not writing policies.
Speaker 2: Correct, And Adriana still is oh yeah, and Veronica too.
Speaker 3: Correct and so and she's gotten some real estate packing.
Speaker 3: Ben Allen, state senator, well known, well.
Speaker 1: Liked fact check he is the state senator for the Palisades.
Speaker 2: Correct. Yes, but is he well known? I cannot tell
Speaker 2: you that.
Speaker 1: And by the way, he's also not one of the
Speaker 1: ones who's been out there being hugely critical of Ricardo
Speaker 1: Laura in the California Department of Insurance. Shouldn't he have
Speaker 1: been beating the pots and pans louder than he was,
Speaker 1: because we know that John Garamendi is John Garamendi is
Speaker 1: all over the place criticizing Ricardo Laara, the former insurance commissioner,
Speaker 1: current Congressman. If Gara Mendi can do it from his
Speaker 1: perch in Washington, d C. Ben Allen should have been
Speaker 1: right there with him.
Speaker 3: Ben Allen, state Senator, well known, well liked. He He's
Speaker 3: talked about how we need to harden up communities that
Speaker 3: are you know, in the in the interface, that are
Speaker 3: prone to these kind of disasters, and perhaps insurance rates
Speaker 3: will go down.
Speaker 2: They're not going down. The insurance companies have never said
Speaker 2: that they would lower rates if you harden your home.
Speaker 2: They don't care. No.
Speaker 3: But there's a there's another Republican, Stacy come Garden close enough.
Speaker 7: From the Central Coast.
Speaker 3: She's in third and she's just like two points behind
Speaker 3: Ben Allen, So we'll see.
Speaker 7: I mean, this could flip.
Speaker 3: I know that any Democrat running statewide wants to have
Speaker 3: a Republican challenger in the fall.
Speaker 7: That makes it easy for them.
Speaker 3: If it's the two Democrats, it's going to be an
Speaker 3: interesting race and it'll probably be expensive.
Speaker 5: Realistically, Conan, I'm sorry calling realistically, how could I mean,
Speaker 5: could we really see those changes come? I mean, I
Speaker 5: know so many of us who live in California and
Speaker 5: who are paying high prices for insurance. Could we see
Speaker 5: that decrease?
Speaker 2: Everyone running, including the current insurance commissioner, says well, the
Speaker 2: only answer is you need to pay even more. Yeah,
Speaker 2: and I'll tell you I would love to see the
Speaker 2: Republican candidate leapfrog Ben Allen and get into the general election,
Speaker 2: so you could have two very different points of view
Speaker 2: battling it out. If you have a socialist and a
Speaker 2: Democrat who are debating one another and running against one another,
Speaker 2: it puts the voters in an awful position because my
Speaker 2: guess is that Ben Allen won't be as brazenly corrupt
Speaker 2: as Ricardo Laura, but his policies are going to be
Speaker 2: very similar and I don't want that. But I also
Speaker 2: don't want a socialist to go in there and have
Speaker 2: the government take over, because then insurance is going to
Speaker 2: be like dealing with the fair plan all across the board.
Speaker 7: Well, you know, it's a that is a good question.
Speaker 3: I mean, the state fired Fire Agency has started to
Speaker 3: tell fire departments, Okay, you need to enforce zone one,
Speaker 3: Zone zero, Zone two.
Speaker 7: I don't know if homeowners have gotten it in the
Speaker 7: mail yet, but.
Speaker 2: It's all the Palisades residents who have their homes lots
Speaker 2: burned down. They got the notice is that they need
Speaker 2: to clear their brush.
Speaker 3: They did, but it's about trees being too close to
Speaker 3: your house or you know, within a five foot radius.
Speaker 3: So they're doing everything they can, I think, to try
Speaker 3: to address the potential for another conflagration of fire in
Speaker 3: some of these neighborhoods. But I don't know how you
Speaker 3: get around this because it's all about money, and they'veforces
Speaker 3: it and who enforces it, and there's a federal government
Speaker 3: helping out. They haven't helped out on a.
Speaker 7: Lot of things yet.
Speaker 1: And God warned you look at how the State of
Speaker 1: California is spending money that's supposed to go to fire victims.
Speaker 1: It's going to everything but fire victims.
Speaker 3: And so but to your point, a lot of focus
Speaker 3: is on this office because there's tremendous dissatisfaction with how
Speaker 3: it has been run by the current insurance commissioner.
Speaker 2: Who's that I wonder, I'm very kind of sketch.
Speaker 1: Why are they also hesitant to call him out by name?
Speaker 2: They don't have any better ideas than he did.
Speaker 7: So there are a lot of people who want changes.
Speaker 2: Ricardo Laura made deals with state farms specifically and the
Speaker 2: other major insurers to give them everything they wanted, everything
Speaker 2: they get in states like Florida, and they're still not
Speaker 2: coming back.
Speaker 7: So there are a lot of people who want changes.
Speaker 3: Bernie Sanders involved, others involved, the real estate industries involved,
Speaker 3: and both sides trying to articulate a way to make
Speaker 3: sure people don't depend completely on the Fair Plan, which
Speaker 3: a lot of criticisms.
Speaker 2: Statewide Fair Plan policies were supposed to deplete based on
Speaker 2: Ricardo Laura's sustainable insurance strategy. Fair plans have only gone up,
Speaker 2: and Ricardo Lara changed the rules to allow the fair
Speaker 2: Plan when it gets when it goes belly up, which
Speaker 2: it's not a government plan. It is made up of
Speaker 2: a consortium of the insurance companies. They get to pass
Speaker 2: that cost onto you the rate payer, even if you're
Speaker 2: not on the Fair Plan.
Speaker 1: Well, and it's supposed to be for people who live
Speaker 1: in danger zones. And now the people who are going
Speaker 1: on the Fair Plan, many of them don't even live
Speaker 1: in fire zones.
Speaker 2: And we get back.
Speaker 3: To a place where insurance is affordable and insurance companies
Speaker 3: don't pull out of the state.
Speaker 2: I'm not saying that it makes sense. I just understand
Speaker 2: why at this point the majority of voters looking at
Speaker 2: that race are like, I want to blow up this
Speaker 2: whole system.
Speaker 1: But if we all end up on some version of
Speaker 1: the Fair Plan, that's going to put us all in
Speaker 1: a bad position. Because the Fair Plan is the worst
Speaker 1: at paying out on claims.
Speaker 2: State farms about as bad. I don't know.
Speaker 1: Statefarm is pretty bad. But I've heard nothing but awful
Speaker 1: things about the Fair Plan. I have heard people get
Speaker 1: paid with State Farm policies. I don't know anyone on
Speaker 1: the Fair Plan who's had to file acclaim, who's had
Speaker 1: a good experience. Eight hundred two two two five two
Speaker 1: two two is telephone number? What eight hundred two two
Speaker 1: two five two two two. If you'd like to email
Speaker 1: the show, you can do so at Johnny don't like
Speaker 1: show at gmail dot com. That's Johnny don't like show
Speaker 1: at gmail dot com and Randy Eremonitor In the mail bag,
Speaker 1: Kurt writes in at Johnny don't like show at gmail
Speaker 1: dot com on the subject of Janekim, the former San
Speaker 1: Francisco supervisor who is running for Insurance Commissioner who has
Speaker 1: made the runoff. Janekim is a straight up communist who
Speaker 1: is despised by the landlord community in San Francisco, especially
Speaker 1: by the Chinese landlords. How is it that we ended
Speaker 1: up with this many communists sound the ballot at once.
Speaker 1: It is California, good Lord, Because it's not just her
Speaker 1: Styr essentially ran as a communist. We have Nitthia Rama
Speaker 1: and running for mayor of Los Angeles essentially as a communist.
Speaker 1: Look at all of these nutty das we've had here
Speaker 1: that are right there with them politically. I'll tell you
Speaker 1: what's going on right now in California is indicative of
Speaker 1: what's going on in the Democratic Party nationally, because we
Speaker 1: saw it with Mamdanni in New York and that crazy
Speaker 1: woman in Seattle, and that nut in Chicago, and different
Speaker 1: city councils all over the country. Certainly with AOC and
Speaker 1: her block and the Congress. I wonder if the Democratic
Speaker 1: Party is going to lose control of its nomination process
Speaker 1: in twenty twenty eight, and they are going to end
Speaker 1: up with a socialist or a communist their nominee. That
Speaker 1: seems to be where their voters are right now,