WEBVTT - John Thomas breaks down the election results 0:00:00.160 --> 0:00:03.200 And we continue at what five in the afternoon on 0:00:03.360 --> 0:00:07.240 the John Phillips Show, Mister Randy Weggs in Culver City. 0:00:07.120 --> 0:00:10.160 John, while residents of Garden Grove are no longer under 0:00:10.160 --> 0:00:14.600 the imminent threat of a chemical plant explosion, that chemical 0:00:14.640 --> 0:00:17.840 plant is now cleaning the broken pipe, and apparently it 0:00:17.920 --> 0:00:21.920 is leading to the worst odor you can imagine wafting 0:00:22.079 --> 0:00:23.479 all through Orange County. 0:00:23.640 --> 0:00:25.040 You can smell right here. 0:00:25.720 --> 0:00:29.360 That sounds appetizing. What do you think that whole situation 0:00:29.720 --> 0:00:31.600 with the chemical plant is going to do to property 0:00:31.680 --> 0:00:34.600 values in Garden Grove? I don't know, but I'm glad 0:00:34.600 --> 0:00:35.200 I moved. 0:00:38.960 --> 0:00:41.760 Eight hundred two two two five two two two is 0:00:41.760 --> 0:00:44.640 a telephone number one eight hundred two two two five 0:00:44.720 --> 0:00:47.599 two two two. It is our pleasure to welcome our 0:00:47.600 --> 0:00:51.120 next guest to the program is a Republican political strategist 0:00:51.159 --> 0:00:54.760 who you can follow on exit the Thomas Guide, John Thomas. 0:00:54.920 --> 0:00:57.680 Welcome, Hey, John Rich do ad. 0:00:59.080 --> 0:01:02.760 So let's go ahead and start out with the governor's 0:01:02.960 --> 0:01:06.760 race here in California. We still don't have an official 0:01:06.840 --> 0:01:10.399 call from the Secretary of State's office that the November 0:01:10.440 --> 0:01:14.840 ballot will feature Javier Bessera and Steve Hilton. But it's 0:01:14.840 --> 0:01:17.520 certainly looking that way. 0:01:17.840 --> 0:01:23.200 Yeah, sure does I mean it isn't. It isn't beyond 0:01:23.200 --> 0:01:27.280 the realm of possibility that Tom Steyer does sneak into 0:01:27.319 --> 0:01:32.720 a top two, but probably not likely at this pace 0:01:33.360 --> 0:01:37.400 of the returns coming in. So this kind of landed John, 0:01:37.480 --> 0:01:38.920 you know when we spoke a couple of days ago, 0:01:38.959 --> 0:01:42.280 this landed pretty much right as we kind of suspected 0:01:42.360 --> 0:01:46.000 enough of the Republicans coalesced around Hilton to kind of 0:01:46.000 --> 0:01:50.640 make him him the top person, and Bessarah used the 0:01:50.800 --> 0:01:53.440 kind of last minute establishment play to kind of be 0:01:53.920 --> 0:01:57.240 the guy. And I guess it proves that money is 0:01:57.280 --> 0:02:00.280 important in politics, but not everything, because Tom Syre, now 0:02:00.280 --> 0:02:02.680 I think, has burnt up over half a billion dollars 0:02:02.760 --> 0:02:05.360 in his runs for office and has absolutely nothing to 0:02:05.360 --> 0:02:05.840 show forth. 0:02:06.840 --> 0:02:09.680 What do you make of Tom Steyers framing. He framed 0:02:09.760 --> 0:02:13.480 himself in this race as the billionaire communist, and he 0:02:13.600 --> 0:02:15.760 got a lot of the left wingers in the Democratic 0:02:15.760 --> 0:02:18.240 Party to get behind him. He got a lot of 0:02:18.240 --> 0:02:22.000 the left wing on x and all the social media 0:02:22.080 --> 0:02:26.360 platforms as San Piker and people like that. But what 0:02:26.520 --> 0:02:30.600 if instead of branding himself as the communist billionaire. He 0:02:30.720 --> 0:02:34.920 branded himself as a partisan Democrat who is a smart 0:02:34.960 --> 0:02:38.079 businessman and knows how to run the state more efficiently. 0:02:39.320 --> 0:02:41.639 Looking back at it, would that have been a better 0:02:41.680 --> 0:02:43.520 way to sell himself to voters. 0:02:45.160 --> 0:02:48.880 That's an interesting question. I'm not sure John, that any 0:02:48.960 --> 0:02:52.040 framing really would have saved him, because he's run The 0:02:52.120 --> 0:02:58.400 underlying political climate is so antithetical and against rich people, 0:02:58.440 --> 0:03:02.160 particularly billionaires, that no matter how he framed himself, it 0:03:02.160 --> 0:03:05.040 would probably be spun against him because his underlying core 0:03:05.120 --> 0:03:09.280 identity is out of step with the modern Democratic Party. 0:03:09.720 --> 0:03:13.560 He's a whiter than white guy. That kind of is 0:03:13.600 --> 0:03:18.000 not cool. And he's incredibly rich, and he made a 0:03:18.000 --> 0:03:20.519 lot of his money, you know, in fossil fuels and 0:03:20.800 --> 0:03:24.600 other things that are the complete opposite of what the 0:03:24.639 --> 0:03:28.160 Democratic Party likes to consider to be virtuous. So I 0:03:28.240 --> 0:03:30.880 hear you, John, If he had framed himself that way, 0:03:31.480 --> 0:03:35.360 I think they would have. The left would have pigeonholed 0:03:35.440 --> 0:03:39.720 him as a corporate raider, you know, just a big 0:03:39.760 --> 0:03:44.000 corporation guy. So he probably went where he thought would 0:03:44.040 --> 0:03:48.720 be the safest. But it just isn't believable. And a 0:03:48.800 --> 0:03:53.520 resident that he believed his real position there. So it 0:03:53.520 --> 0:03:55.800 didn't work and I'm not sure that voters really want 0:03:55.800 --> 0:03:57.480 a guy like Tom Steyron office. 0:03:58.240 --> 0:04:02.280 Was Katie Porter's campaign over the moment though that video 0:04:02.400 --> 0:04:04.760 came out of her swearing at a staffer. 0:04:06.440 --> 0:04:08.920 One hundred percent it was done. She just didn't realize 0:04:08.920 --> 0:04:12.800 it at that point. And the reason is that that 0:04:12.920 --> 0:04:19.000 video confirmed the suspicions that some of the electorate had 0:04:19.040 --> 0:04:21.839 about her, which is that she's not a nice person, 0:04:22.080 --> 0:04:26.120 and she's not she doesn't empathize with voters like us, 0:04:26.920 --> 0:04:32.040 and so it decuted her because it shined a light 0:04:32.279 --> 0:04:37.400 on her underlying weakness. It just exposed it, and there 0:04:37.440 --> 0:04:42.160 really was no recovery because John she's not a nice person. 0:04:42.440 --> 0:04:46.200 She doesn't come off in interviews as nice. In fact, 0:04:46.520 --> 0:04:49.240 she kind of leaned into that persona when she was 0:04:49.240 --> 0:04:53.440 a member of Congress, with her persona in Congress that 0:04:53.520 --> 0:04:56.560 she wags her finger at you. So she was kind 0:04:56.560 --> 0:04:59.040 of damned once that video came out. It just I 0:04:59.080 --> 0:05:00.680 think she was the last person to realize that. 0:05:01.440 --> 0:05:04.920 Why didn't she just lean into it? Because I think 0:05:04.960 --> 0:05:09.359 that Democrats respond well to Karen's and she is probably 0:05:09.440 --> 0:05:13.520 the chief Karen in California politics. Instead of trying to 0:05:13.560 --> 0:05:17.720 pretend like you're the homemaker that's baking cookies for your 0:05:17.760 --> 0:05:20.760 kids and their friends, which no one ever bought into 0:05:20.920 --> 0:05:24.000 with her, why not just say, yeah, I'm a nasty woman, 0:05:24.120 --> 0:05:25.839 and I'm going to go be nasty to all the 0:05:25.839 --> 0:05:28.039 people that you hate, and I'm going to make life 0:05:28.040 --> 0:05:30.880 miserable for them, and that's just who I am, and 0:05:30.880 --> 0:05:32.640 I'm going to kick ass and take names. 0:05:33.600 --> 0:05:35.360 Yeah, that's what she should have done, for sure. First 0:05:35.360 --> 0:05:38.120 of all, it would have been incredible, believable and authentic. 0:05:38.480 --> 0:05:40.880 But also, you know, Donald Trump did something similar. You 0:05:40.920 --> 0:05:43.640 may recall him sixteen when people said he's not a 0:05:43.760 --> 0:05:46.560 nice guy, he's a bully, and he basically said, yeah, 0:05:46.600 --> 0:05:48.920 I'm a bully, but I'm not a schoolyard bully. I'm 0:05:48.960 --> 0:05:52.159 a bully for you. And that really stuck because the 0:05:52.200 --> 0:05:54.880 electorate wanted somebody who's going to you know, stick it 0:05:54.920 --> 0:05:58.640 to China, et cetera. And that worked and we believed it. 0:05:58.920 --> 0:06:02.520 When Katie was running saying I'm a nice person, it 0:06:02.720 --> 0:06:06.240 just didn't make any sense because everybody knew that to 0:06:06.279 --> 0:06:10.800 be untrue, so it ended up becoming disingenuous. I think 0:06:10.880 --> 0:06:13.679 the real root of it with Katie is she doesn't 0:06:13.680 --> 0:06:15.960 want to think of herself as not a nice person, 0:06:16.560 --> 0:06:19.960 so even though she isn't nice, so she couldn't lean 0:06:20.000 --> 0:06:22.960 into that too deeply because it would probably undermine how 0:06:23.000 --> 0:06:23.920 she views herself. 0:06:24.839 --> 0:06:27.840 Is that common in politics when you've worked for people 0:06:27.960 --> 0:06:29.359 in the past, and I'm not going to ask for 0:06:29.360 --> 0:06:33.640 any names who are not nice? People who are empirically 0:06:33.680 --> 0:06:36.960 not nice people? Do they know it? Are they aware 0:06:37.000 --> 0:06:39.440 of it? Or do they think that they're nice? And 0:06:39.480 --> 0:06:41.640 it's the rest of the world with the problem. 0:06:42.560 --> 0:06:44.839 One hundred percent of the time they think it's everybody 0:06:44.839 --> 0:06:47.880 else and they're the nice, nice people. And sometimes you 0:06:47.960 --> 0:06:49.799 got to crack a few eggs and make an omelet 0:06:49.839 --> 0:06:52.440 you know, that's how they But usually it's pointing fingers 0:06:52.480 --> 0:06:55.120 that you know, Oh, it's the staffer who's the idiot. 0:06:55.160 --> 0:06:58.160 It's it's always somebody else's fault. So, yes, they're one 0:06:58.240 --> 0:07:01.240 hundred percent in denial and it and it running for 0:07:01.320 --> 0:07:04.200 office kind of attracts that persona John of like the 0:07:04.240 --> 0:07:09.159 egotistical persona. So it's a really nice safe haven because 0:07:09.200 --> 0:07:12.120 when you do get elected, typically you have nothing but 0:07:12.240 --> 0:07:14.720 yes people around you, So it kind of reinforces that 0:07:14.760 --> 0:07:16.280 you're the good one everybody else is in. 0:07:17.400 --> 0:07:20.239 Matt Mayhon is a candidate who had all the money 0:07:20.240 --> 0:07:23.920 in the world. He had profile pieces written about him 0:07:23.920 --> 0:07:26.520 in all the big newspapers. There was a lot of 0:07:26.560 --> 0:07:30.160 fanfare with his campaign. The tech industry wanted him to 0:07:30.200 --> 0:07:34.040 be governor in the worst possible way. The tech industry, 0:07:34.240 --> 0:07:37.320 as we know, really got kicked in the teeth all 0:07:37.320 --> 0:07:41.320 over the ballot earlier this week, not just with Matt Mayhon, 0:07:41.640 --> 0:07:43.120 but there is a vote and I think it was 0:07:43.200 --> 0:07:46.800 Monterey Park to ban data centers and other interests that 0:07:46.800 --> 0:07:50.000 they had on the ballot did not do well. Do 0:07:50.040 --> 0:07:54.560 you think that association with him was poison and more 0:07:54.600 --> 0:07:56.480 poison than he ever imagined it would be. 0:07:58.000 --> 0:08:01.480 Think, yeah, I think it was a one two punched on. 0:08:01.480 --> 0:08:04.600 On the one hand, he positioned himself out of the 0:08:04.640 --> 0:08:07.920 gate incorrectly, which is that he's a moderate Democrat, and 0:08:08.040 --> 0:08:11.640 moderate politics just simply doesn't sell in a state as 0:08:11.720 --> 0:08:15.680 blue as California, So that was a disqualifier. In the 0:08:15.720 --> 0:08:20.560 second is, yeah, he wrapped himself around these people, these 0:08:20.600 --> 0:08:24.560 backers that are largely deeply unpopular right now in the 0:08:24.600 --> 0:08:29.640 tech sector. I mean almost universally, from Republicans, the Democrats, Independence, 0:08:31.240 --> 0:08:34.080 young people to old people, they're all they are all 0:08:34.200 --> 0:08:38.960 deeply wary for their own reasons of tech leaders. And 0:08:39.040 --> 0:08:42.120 so yeah, it just it was doomed. And you saw 0:08:42.280 --> 0:08:45.160 John Matt Mayheon kind of toward the tail end in 0:08:45.160 --> 0:08:48.720 his advertising. He started to do like a subtle pivot 0:08:48.840 --> 0:08:51.240 to leaning into him being a Democrat by using the 0:08:51.240 --> 0:08:54.400 word Democrat and his ads on screen and whatnot. But 0:08:54.679 --> 0:08:57.280 it just it wasn't voters were believing. 0:08:58.600 --> 0:09:01.040 Do you think Kamala Harris, who everyone thought was going 0:09:01.120 --> 0:09:04.240 to run and run away with this office and people 0:09:04.240 --> 0:09:07.680 wouldn't be paying much attention to this election because she'd 0:09:07.679 --> 0:09:11.880 come into it with almost universal name id, a fundraising 0:09:11.920 --> 0:09:13.600 list that could get her all the money that she 0:09:13.720 --> 0:09:17.000 needed to mount a very serious campaign. Do you think 0:09:17.040 --> 0:09:20.040 she's looking at this and thinking to herself, I made 0:09:20.080 --> 0:09:23.120 a mistake. I should have run, or oh boy, I'm 0:09:23.120 --> 0:09:25.760 glad I didn't put myself through that gauntlet of abuse. 0:09:27.920 --> 0:09:31.959 You know, I know the type. And I think she's 0:09:32.000 --> 0:09:34.200 segmenting it in two ways. If I had to bet, 0:09:34.280 --> 0:09:36.640 one is she says I could have had it. If 0:09:36.679 --> 0:09:38.840 I wanted, I would have walked in and had it, 0:09:39.440 --> 0:09:42.720 so she probably believed that to be true. But I 0:09:42.760 --> 0:09:45.800 think the real core reason she didn't run was not 0:09:45.880 --> 0:09:48.720 because she didn't think she couldn't win. It's because she 0:09:48.760 --> 0:09:52.319 didn't want the job. Because being a governor in the 0:09:52.320 --> 0:09:55.600 state of California is a lot of work. There's a 0:09:55.640 --> 0:10:00.400 lot of pressure, particularly the really disaster management, and that's 0:10:00.679 --> 0:10:03.200 Kamala is not up to that job, and I think 0:10:03.240 --> 0:10:05.640 she knows it. So I really don't think she wanted 0:10:05.679 --> 0:10:08.040 the job, because if she did, John, you got to 0:10:08.080 --> 0:10:09.679 think that she would have thrown her hat the ring. 0:10:11.240 --> 0:10:14.360 Steve Hilton is now trying to do something that no 0:10:14.440 --> 0:10:17.559 Republican has done since Arnold Swarzenegger did it when he 0:10:17.679 --> 0:10:21.559 ran for re election in two thousand and six. If 0:10:21.559 --> 0:10:24.000 he were to call you up and say, John, I 0:10:24.080 --> 0:10:26.080 need your advice, what should I do? 0:10:26.240 --> 0:10:29.080 How should I run this race? What would you tell him? 0:10:30.360 --> 0:10:34.400 Well, first, assuming the numbers hold and he comes in 0:10:34.480 --> 0:10:37.360 the first first place, I think I would try to 0:10:37.400 --> 0:10:40.120 milk that. You know, for as much as as it's worth. 0:10:40.240 --> 0:10:43.120 Is that out of all those choices for governor, you know, 0:10:43.160 --> 0:10:46.880 Steve was the number one choice. Secondly, you've got to 0:10:46.960 --> 0:10:50.920 spend time in areas of the state and media outlets 0:10:50.960 --> 0:10:53.360 that you're uncomfortable with because you're going to have to 0:10:53.360 --> 0:10:55.840 talk to voters who normally wouldn't be part of the 0:10:55.880 --> 0:10:59.280 traditional Republican coalition. And so, but before you go, and 0:10:59.320 --> 0:11:03.040 Steve is obviously a pro, he's very articulate, he's really 0:11:03.040 --> 0:11:05.160 good in interviews. He does a great job on your 0:11:05.160 --> 0:11:08.839 show and others. But he's got to come armed with 0:11:09.040 --> 0:11:13.400 third party validators that different segments that are not Republican 0:11:13.440 --> 0:11:16.720 of the elector in California. Trust. So the very first thing, 0:11:16.800 --> 0:11:19.719 quietly he has to do is start racking up endorsements. 0:11:20.000 --> 0:11:22.040 I would try to go get the Matt and Mahan's. 0:11:22.360 --> 0:11:26.880 I would try to score a Democrat that nobody thinks 0:11:27.440 --> 0:11:30.959 Steve has any business getting, you know, I mean, heck, 0:11:31.000 --> 0:11:33.760 it could be a Katie Porter or something along those lines. 0:11:34.640 --> 0:11:38.719 And then getting the Chambers, law Enforcement, etc. And he's 0:11:38.760 --> 0:11:42.079 got to go door to door in those communities, particularly 0:11:42.080 --> 0:11:43.840 with Latinos, and make the. 0:11:43.760 --> 0:11:48.040 Case what do you think we can learn out of 0:11:48.080 --> 0:11:53.160 this race for the upcoming presidential primaries. As Democratic candidates 0:11:53.160 --> 0:11:56.080 are watching the results, they're watching how these candidates did, 0:11:56.360 --> 0:11:59.040 which ones performed well? Which ones didn't same thing with 0:11:59.120 --> 0:12:02.800 the Republicans. What do you think we've learned about the 0:12:02.840 --> 0:12:04.319 twenty twenty eight primaries. 0:12:06.679 --> 0:12:11.400 Well, one is money is important, but it's not everything. 0:12:12.040 --> 0:12:16.480 That's clear. Second is you both have to have a message. 0:12:17.360 --> 0:12:20.199 On the Democratic side, and this has been consistent I 0:12:20.240 --> 0:12:24.520 think for a few cycles, Democrats value identity more than 0:12:24.559 --> 0:12:29.040 they do message and policy. So the marriage is important 0:12:29.080 --> 0:12:32.640 of those two things. But you know, if you're Gavin Nussom, 0:12:32.679 --> 0:12:34.720 you have to be looking at this thing going, oh, man, 0:12:35.320 --> 0:12:38.000 I'm a white guy. Not much I can do about that. 0:12:38.240 --> 0:12:40.960 So he's going to start out at a little bit 0:12:41.000 --> 0:12:44.280 of a deficit there. So I have to imagine, you know, 0:12:44.320 --> 0:12:46.480 as you go into the presidential cycle, you're going to 0:12:46.600 --> 0:12:49.920 you see a lot of minorities on the Democratic side running. 0:12:49.960 --> 0:12:54.280 Republicans seem to make their choice based more upon merit 0:12:54.320 --> 0:12:59.199 and qualifications. On a messaging standpoint, I think we have 0:12:59.240 --> 0:13:03.520 to basically look at the Republicans kind of seem to 0:13:03.520 --> 0:13:07.040 come home to the favorite. I know, John, you were 0:13:07.080 --> 0:13:11.240 kind of mixed on, you know, which Republican is the right, 0:13:11.320 --> 0:13:14.400 But it looks like Steve kind of was always always 0:13:14.400 --> 0:13:17.600 the guy. And then and then The other John is 0:13:17.920 --> 0:13:21.800 we've got to be disciplined on message. Domestic issues are 0:13:21.840 --> 0:13:24.680 the big issues. I think we really as Republicans have 0:13:24.760 --> 0:13:27.400 to be careful not to stray away and talk about 0:13:27.440 --> 0:13:31.160 foreign policy. They have to talk about domestic things like jobs, 0:13:31.200 --> 0:13:34.000 et cetera. And then the last thing John is we 0:13:34.040 --> 0:13:38.640 can't ignore the populist wave against AI. That is a 0:13:38.679 --> 0:13:41.959 big sensitivity issue and it also wraps around in affordability 0:13:41.960 --> 0:13:44.840 and energy issue. Those are issues that our team's going 0:13:44.920 --> 0:13:47.480 to have to speak to to try to ride that 0:13:47.600 --> 0:13:49.480 populist wave as we go into the midterms. 0:13:50.400 --> 0:13:53.400 Let's shift gears here and talk about the LA mayor's race. 0:13:53.520 --> 0:13:56.400 Right now, we have Karen Bass and for Spencer Pratt 0:13:56.400 --> 0:14:00.800 and second Nitya Rahman in third. Spencer's about seven points 0:14:00.800 --> 0:14:04.440 ahead of her. Last time I checked, the betting markets, 0:14:04.480 --> 0:14:07.680 which had Spencer as a huge favorite to make the runoff, 0:14:08.080 --> 0:14:09.800 have turned on him, and boy. 0:14:09.640 --> 0:14:11.280 Did they turn with a vengeance. 0:14:11.800 --> 0:14:14.160 They now have him at a one to three chance 0:14:14.280 --> 0:14:17.600 at making the runoff and people are laying money down 0:14:17.720 --> 0:14:22.320 on Mitthia Rahman leapfrogging him to the November ballot. Who 0:14:22.360 --> 0:14:24.360 do you think is going to be on that November ballot, 0:14:24.400 --> 0:14:25.680 once all the ballots are counted. 0:14:26.840 --> 0:14:29.400 Now, this is a really fascinating question. I've spent some 0:14:29.440 --> 0:14:31.960 time looking at the numbers to try to make heads 0:14:32.000 --> 0:14:34.120 or tails here, and I can tell you I'm not 0:14:34.120 --> 0:14:36.480 one hundred percent certain of who of which one is 0:14:36.520 --> 0:14:39.000 going to make that second position slot. But I can 0:14:39.040 --> 0:14:42.880 tell you how I think you should analyze it. In 0:14:42.880 --> 0:14:46.520 the comparison. You may remember John that when Rick Caruso 0:14:46.680 --> 0:14:49.200 ran against Karen Bass that on election night, I believe 0:14:49.280 --> 0:14:51.880 Rick Caruso is running ahead of Bass, but then over 0:14:51.920 --> 0:14:56.280 time as more ballots came in, bass overtook Caruso. And 0:14:56.280 --> 0:14:57.920 I think that's what the betting markets are kind of 0:14:57.960 --> 0:15:02.600 looking at that from behind acrat ballots to carry a 0:15:02.800 --> 0:15:06.080 Ramen over a Pratt. Except it's not really an even 0:15:06.160 --> 0:15:09.440 one for one comparison here because back when Bass was running, 0:15:09.520 --> 0:15:14.080 she was the only prominent Democrat, So almost a vast 0:15:14.120 --> 0:15:17.160 majority of late ballots that were Democratic, we're going to 0:15:17.240 --> 0:15:21.400 go to Bass and not and not Caruso. Whereas in 0:15:21.440 --> 0:15:24.880 this case you have Bass, who's a prominent Democrat, maybe 0:15:24.880 --> 0:15:27.359 not a hard left winger, but she is a Democrat 0:15:27.600 --> 0:15:31.200 who's taking some of those Democratic lad votes, so it's 0:15:31.200 --> 0:15:33.240 not a kind of a one for one for Ramen 0:15:33.400 --> 0:15:37.000 like bass enjoyed in the last round. So here's what 0:15:37.080 --> 0:15:41.160 I'm thinking right now. As the ballots updates have been 0:15:41.160 --> 0:15:46.880 coming in, Ramen has been picking up speed disproportionately to Pratt, 0:15:47.480 --> 0:15:51.800 except she has been winning on average when the ballots 0:15:51.960 --> 0:15:55.320 tranches have come in. Ramen's been picking up about eleven 0:15:55.400 --> 0:15:59.440 percent over Pratt. By my calculus, she needs to get 0:15:59.720 --> 0:16:03.560 a out fourteen to sixteen percent per dump of votes 0:16:04.280 --> 0:16:08.400 ahead to catch up. So if the current trend continues, 0:16:08.800 --> 0:16:11.600 I think she'll come up about two thousand votes shy 0:16:12.080 --> 0:16:16.440 of Pratt staying in the third place. But here's the wildcard, John. 0:16:16.480 --> 0:16:19.640 This is why can't take a position. It depends where 0:16:19.680 --> 0:16:23.320 these ballots are coming from. If these ballots these drop, 0:16:23.440 --> 0:16:27.400 the ballots are going to be coming from Democratic strongholds 0:16:27.400 --> 0:16:31.720 where they're just tons of Democrats. There probably are enough 0:16:31.720 --> 0:16:34.960 in those piles to allow a Ramen maybe to get 0:16:34.960 --> 0:16:39.600 a twenty percent ahead a thirty percent on a batch approach, 0:16:39.920 --> 0:16:43.560 which could change the calculus. But as it stands today, 0:16:43.880 --> 0:16:47.120 if the returns are steady, it will tighten. But I 0:16:47.120 --> 0:16:50.240 think Ramen comes up slightly short, So it's a long 0:16:50.280 --> 0:16:50.840 winded answer. 0:16:51.080 --> 0:16:55.440 We'll see And I can only imagine what it's like 0:16:55.480 --> 0:16:57.840 if you work in this business as a strategistic you 0:16:57.840 --> 0:17:00.640 have skin in the game with one of these campaigns. 0:17:01.080 --> 0:17:04.000 But as someone who covers this for a living, I 0:17:04.080 --> 0:17:07.040 cannot believe that we put up with this. I cannot 0:17:07.040 --> 0:17:09.639 believe that we allow them to take this long to 0:17:09.760 --> 0:17:12.760 count the ballots and we don't have an answer on 0:17:12.840 --> 0:17:15.640 election night. They could do it in a couple hours 0:17:15.680 --> 0:17:18.479 in Brazil, they could do it in India, they can 0:17:18.520 --> 0:17:21.520 do it in these third world countries all over the globe. 0:17:21.600 --> 0:17:24.760 We are the home to Silicon Valley and it takes 0:17:24.760 --> 0:17:26.880 a month and a half for us to count the ballots. 0:17:26.880 --> 0:17:27.720 It's disgraceful. 0:17:28.800 --> 0:17:30.919 Well one hundred percent, And don't even wind me up 0:17:30.960 --> 0:17:34.520 about not having voter ID because what happens, John, Let's 0:17:34.520 --> 0:17:37.800 just hypothetically say that I that it gets down in 0:17:37.840 --> 0:17:39.840 the for a second place finish and this mayor's race 0:17:39.920 --> 0:17:42.159 down to five hundred votes, which I mean it could 0:17:42.560 --> 0:17:46.359 very well could. Well, then how do we know that 0:17:46.359 --> 0:17:50.200 those five hundred voters were actual voters? We don't really 0:17:50.280 --> 0:17:54.040 know that. So my pro tip both to the Roman campaign, 0:17:54.080 --> 0:17:56.960 but also to the Pratt campaign. Is right now, if 0:17:57.000 --> 0:17:59.400 you were Spencer Pratt, you need to be lawyering up 0:17:59.720 --> 0:18:03.000 and getting ballot watchers because if this thing comes down 0:18:03.080 --> 0:18:06.000 and you lose, flip into third place by a few 0:18:06.040 --> 0:18:08.479 hundred votes or even a thousand votes, you need to 0:18:08.480 --> 0:18:10.919 go through those ballots and inspect them and try to 0:18:11.040 --> 0:18:17.119 ensure that ballots with improper signatures, et cetera disqualify because 0:18:17.119 --> 0:18:19.560 if you were shy just a few hundred votes, John, 0:18:20.040 --> 0:18:23.199 I've flipped plenty elections in places like Orange County and 0:18:23.240 --> 0:18:27.560 others in local elections by dqing bad ballots. So, but 0:18:28.000 --> 0:18:30.280 there's a tight window of time to do that, and 0:18:30.320 --> 0:18:32.800 if you don't have the team and infrastructure in place, 0:18:33.040 --> 0:18:35.159 you miss the window and you can't go back and 0:18:35.240 --> 0:18:35.680 undo it. 0:18:36.320 --> 0:18:38.959 Last question before you go, I would imagine that some 0:18:39.040 --> 0:18:42.520 of these late ballots that are coming in they're provisional ballots. 0:18:42.960 --> 0:18:46.160 They are ballots that were dumped at the very last minute. 0:18:47.200 --> 0:18:51.960 Who which organization is best at getting those in right 0:18:52.040 --> 0:18:54.320 under the wire? Is it the DSA or is it 0:18:54.359 --> 0:18:57.240 the Democratic Party? Because if it's the DSA, those are 0:18:57.240 --> 0:19:00.000 going to be Roman ballots. If it's the Democratic Party. 0:19:00.040 --> 0:19:01.280 They're going to be bast ballots. 0:19:02.920 --> 0:19:05.280 It's a great question, and it's one hundred percent of DSA. 0:19:05.320 --> 0:19:07.320 And we know that because we see it all the 0:19:07.359 --> 0:19:09.640 time in La City contest. This is how a lot 0:19:09.680 --> 0:19:14.000 of the DSA candidates have bested the more establishment union 0:19:14.040 --> 0:19:16.320 backed Democrats. We've seen it time and time again. They 0:19:16.320 --> 0:19:20.720 are better organizers, they're better ballot harvesters. So, yes, you're 0:19:20.760 --> 0:19:25.480 exactly right, it would favor Ramen. And I have to 0:19:25.560 --> 0:19:29.160 think that there are probably some heavy tranches of Democratic 0:19:29.359 --> 0:19:33.480 ballots just proportionally that'll be released and that'll favor Ramen. 0:19:33.560 --> 0:19:35.920 But she has to have that happen a few extra times. 0:19:35.920 --> 0:19:40.280 So look, if there were ever a scenario, John, where 0:19:40.320 --> 0:19:43.920 a third place candidate could sneak into second, Ramen has 0:19:43.960 --> 0:19:47.320 all the special ingredients right now to sneak into a 0:19:47.320 --> 0:19:47.840 second place. 0:19:48.400 --> 0:19:52.040 All right, John Thomas, Republican political strategist. You can follow 0:19:52.119 --> 0:19:54.880 him on exit the Thomas Guide. John, thanks so much 0:19:54.880 --> 0:19:58.680 for stopping by. Thanks again, John, eight hundred two two 0:19:58.680 --> 0:20:02.040 two five two two. Who ease the telephone number one 0:20:02.119 --> 0:20:05.479 eight hundred two two two five two two two If 0:20:05.520 --> 0:20:07.320 you'd like to email the show you can do so 0:20:07.440 --> 0:20:10.520 at Johnny Don't Like Show at gmail dot com. That's 0:20:10.600 --> 0:20:14.840 Johnny Don't Like Show at gmail dot com and Randy, 0:20:14.920 --> 0:20:18.000 we've officially crossed the halfway point of today's show. If 0:20:18.040 --> 0:20:20.200 you want to continue listening to us after we sign 0:20:20.280 --> 0:20:21.840 off with three, that's easy to do. 0:20:22.160 --> 0:20:25.080 All you gotta do is search for The John Phillips 0:20:25.080 --> 0:20:28.080 Show wherever you get your podcast that could be on 0:20:28.119 --> 0:20:30.680 the Apple Podcasts app. I think a third of our 0:20:30.720 --> 0:20:34.240 audience uses it. That's what I use. You can use iHeartRadio, 0:20:34.400 --> 0:20:38.000 nothing wrong with that. 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Because you know, make us 0:21:17.720 --> 0:21:19.720 look good in the company. Get a town hall with 0:21:19.800 --> 0:21:23.120 the CEO coming up this week. Search for the John 0:21:23.160 --> 0:21:26.280 Phillips Show. Wherever you get your podcasts, And the great 0:21:26.280 --> 0:21:29.600 thing about the podcast is you can enjoy them wherever 0:21:29.880 --> 0:21:34.160 you are. You can enjoy them. Whether you are exercising, 0:21:34.520 --> 0:21:39.480 you can enjoy them, whether you are doing a meeting 0:21:39.520 --> 0:21:41.520 and you have it out in the background. You can 0:21:41.560 --> 0:21:45.119 even listen to our podcast while you're writing our wonderful 0:21:45.160 --> 0:21:47.360 metro system. I'm Tom Steyer. 0:21:47.520 --> 0:21:51.320 Kind of about to ride the team. 0:21:51.480 --> 0:21:57.960 You can also listen while doing that, firing it in there. Huh. 0:21:58.320 --> 0:22:00.320 In the meantime, what do you say we make a 0:22:00.320 --> 0:22:01.920 couple of listeners very happy. 0:22:02.000 --> 0:22:05.560 Well, let's do that right now. Seven ninety KABC welcomes 0:22:05.600 --> 0:22:08.480 the Head and the Heart at the Pacific Amphitheater at 0:22:08.480 --> 0:22:12.639 the OC Fair on August fourteenth. Tickets are on sale 0:22:12.680 --> 0:22:17.560 now at pacamp dot com. Right now. Coller number nine 0:22:17.640 --> 0:22:20.920 at one eight eight eight seven ninety five two two 0:22:20.960 --> 0:22:23.640 two gets a pair of tickets to the show. All 0:22:23.760 --> 0:22:28.240 concert tickets included mission to the OC Fair. Tickets furnished 0:22:28.240 --> 0:22:32.960 by the Pacific Amphitheater. Good Luck Dialing. 0:22:33.880 --> 0:22:37.320