WEBVTT - Egg Is My Option

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<v Speaker 1>Broadcasting live from the Abraham Lincoln Radio Studio at the

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<v Speaker 1>George Washington Broadcast Center.

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<v Speaker 2>Jack Armstrong and Joe Getty.

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<v Speaker 3>Armstrong and Getty. And now, here's Armstrong and Getty.

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<v Speaker 4>El-Sayed spent the day with progressive Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren,

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<v Speaker 4>pushing their common message of Medicare for all and higher

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<v Speaker 4>taxes on millionaires and billionaires, all one day after Congresswoman

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<v Speaker 4>Haley Stevens, who lost the Democratic nomination by less than

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<v Speaker 4>a percentage point to El-Sayed, flipped her endorsement to Republican

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<v Speaker 4>Mike Rogers over El-Sayed's stance towards Israel. Elsa's campaign says

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<v Speaker 4>it raised nearly two and a half million dollars yesterday

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<v Speaker 4>after the Stevens announcement.

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<v Speaker 5>It shouldn't be this hard to pay your taxes and

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<v Speaker 5>know that that money is going to be spent on

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<v Speaker 5>you and your kids instead of.

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<v Speaker 3>Dropping bombs on somebody else and their kids.

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<v Speaker 6>Shouldn't be this hard.

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<v Speaker 7>OK, I don't know. Was that him referencing that ad

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<v Speaker 7>that got so much attention? I mean, in that ad,

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<v Speaker 7>they specifically talk about dropping bombs and On other countries

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<v Speaker 7>is why things are so expensive, and that was.

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<v Speaker 8>Well, yeah, that ad paraphrased his campaign, which is why,

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<v Speaker 8>I mean, he made like a weak disavowal of it.

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<v Speaker 3>But no, why would he? That's his campaign.

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<v Speaker 7>Wow, that's the one thing I'm staying up for tonight

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<v Speaker 7>is to watch his acceptance speech if he wins.

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<v Speaker 8>Speaking of Al Sayed, this is brand new. John Fetterman, 45.

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<v Speaker 9>I mean, he's absolutely pro-Iran and Hamas. I mean, he

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<v Speaker 9>even said he wants to defund the police. And he's

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<v Speaker 9>in a spiritual union with Hassan Piker, who really thinks

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<v Speaker 9>that we deserve 9-11. I mean, so overall, I don't

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<v Speaker 9>get along with communists and socialists and people that hate

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<v Speaker 9>America or people that pick on women, you know, like El-Sayed.

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<v Speaker 7>They're going to be caucusing together if El-Sayed wins. And

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<v Speaker 7>have there ever been in either party in my lifetime?

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<v Speaker 7>A couple of people who would hate each other as

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<v Speaker 7>much as those two were outside of like a personal grudge.

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<v Speaker 7>I can't think of maybe back in the day when

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<v Speaker 7>you had the hardcore racists that were still in the

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<v Speaker 7>Senate that didn't want black people to get to vote

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<v Speaker 7>or anything like that. That might be the only other.

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<v Speaker 7>as far back as you'd have to go to where

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<v Speaker 7>you got that sort of thing.

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<v Speaker 8>Yeah, Fetterman is going to be a very, very welcome

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<v Speaker 8>thorn in El-Sayed's side, if indeed El-Sayed wins tonight. An

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<v Speaker 8>outcome I despise even thinking about.

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<v Speaker 7>Here's the latest from somebody who knows what the private

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<v Speaker 7>polling is. Mark Halperin on his show today. The private

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<v Speaker 7>polling is within the margin of error in almost every

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<v Speaker 7>single one of these polls. Senate races everybody's talking about

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<v Speaker 7>other than North Carolina. So if you think that a

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<v Speaker 7>single Senate race that's currently red is going to flip

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<v Speaker 7>blue and is a sure thing, I would tell you

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<v Speaker 7>you're wrong. I wouldn't say there's a single one that

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<v Speaker 7>would surprise me if it stayed red. Not one, not Ohio,

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<v Speaker 7>not Kansas, not Texas, not Iowa, not Alaska. He didn't

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<v Speaker 7>mention Michigan. Of course, Michigan's already blue. It's the stain blue.

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<v Speaker 7>So that would be that. Not one of them would

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<v Speaker 7>surprise me. In the private polling, they've closed up. And

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<v Speaker 7>what Republicans are counting on is that the voters in

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<v Speaker 7>those states today will overcome, in some states, an early

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<v Speaker 7>vote deficit.

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<v Speaker 3>And Republicans turn out.

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<v Speaker 7>So when it's this close within the margin of error,

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<v Speaker 7>it could all go one way and it could all

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<v Speaker 7>go the other way and have, you know, major difference

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<v Speaker 7>either way.

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<v Speaker 3>Or half and half.

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<v Speaker 6>Or half and half.

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<v Speaker 7>It doesn't tend to go that way a lot, it

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<v Speaker 7>doesn't seem like. With all these close Trump elections, And

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<v Speaker 7>I've never quite understood how this happens, but it's amazing

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<v Speaker 7>how often a whole bunch of different states, counties, districts, whatever,

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<v Speaker 7>break the same direction.

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<v Speaker 3>Like there's a national mood going on.

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<v Speaker 8>Yeah, yeah. Well, throw the bums out. It's definitely the

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<v Speaker 8>national mood, but they're all bums, which leaves you in

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<v Speaker 8>a bit of a spot. Although certainly I prefer free

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<v Speaker 8>market bums to communist bums. You know, an interesting point

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<v Speaker 8>about all this is that the number one issue for

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<v Speaker 8>a lot of people is affordability, inflation. Again, as we

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<v Speaker 8>pointed out last hour, and I've got this somewhere, but corruption,

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<v Speaker 8>government corruption, was the number one issue in a recent

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<v Speaker 8>Fox poll, which I found really, really interesting.

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<v Speaker 7>And were those people polled by Fox thinking about the

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<v Speaker 7>Trump family or the Biden family?

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<v Speaker 3>Or all of the above. Or maybe both. I think

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<v Speaker 3>it should be both.

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<v Speaker 8>And the issue of Congress profiting from stock deals has

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<v Speaker 8>gotten a fair.

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<v Speaker 3>Amount of attention. Yeah, of course it should be both.

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<v Speaker 8>But what's interesting, as Greg Hitt points out, is that

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<v Speaker 8>anybody hoping for a fix for quote-unquote affordability is going

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<v Speaker 8>to be disappointed because the factors that– folks, you're about

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<v Speaker 8>to be more disappointed than anybody.

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<v Speaker 7>That's our job. That's what we come into work for

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<v Speaker 7>every single day. What can we do to disappoint people today?

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<v Speaker 3>Joy crushing. That's how I see my job. I see joy.

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<v Speaker 3>I want to crush it. Joy crushing. Nothing makes me

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<v Speaker 3>angrier than somebody who's joyful. Oh, please. It's got to

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<v Speaker 3>be a way to bring them down.

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<v Speaker 8>Yeah, yeah. But so what's affecting affordability or what's continuing

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<v Speaker 8>to stoke inflation a little bit? It's mostly the tariffs,

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<v Speaker 8>which is not helping. The war against Iran, necessary or not,

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<v Speaker 8>that sent energy prices higher. and a couple of other things,

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<v Speaker 8>but it was all done by the executive branch. Congress

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<v Speaker 8>didn't vote on any of it, and their avenues for

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<v Speaker 8>overturning it are very, very few. And Greg actually goes

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<v Speaker 8>into the history of Congress's ability to rein in conflicts,

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<v Speaker 8>if you don't want to call it war, but it's

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<v Speaker 8>almost hilarious. Its inability to halt the Vietnam War led

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<v Speaker 8>Congress in 1973 to pass the famous War Powers Resolution

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<v Speaker 8>requiring that within 60 to 90 days of committing forces

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<v Speaker 8>to military action, the president either withdraw or obtain congressional authorization. Well,

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<v Speaker 8>presidents have since responded with various claims of complying without

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<v Speaker 8>an actual halt to hostilities. Reagan sent Marines to Lebanon

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<v Speaker 8>in 82 through 84, Navy to escort tankers in the

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<v Speaker 8>Persian Gulf, 87, 88. Bill Clinton intervened in Kosovo, Barack

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<v Speaker 8>Obama in Libya, Iraq and Syria, Joe Biden in Iraq

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<v Speaker 8>and Syria.

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<v Speaker 3>Trump in iran then he.

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<v Speaker 8>Said well no because there's that ceasefire so it reset

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<v Speaker 8>the clock again and congress is reduced to just sputtering and.

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<v Speaker 7>Stamping their little feet there's no or else in that

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<v Speaker 7>thing or will.

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<v Speaker 8>Right exactly and and the tariff thing trump has kind

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<v Speaker 8>of gone way out on a limb on his own

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<v Speaker 8>and so here's.

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<v Speaker 3>The here's where i crush your hope.

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<v Speaker 8>So what's left redistribution of wealth writing you checks, making

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<v Speaker 8>you promises, subsidizing things, but because other than millionaires and billionaires,

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<v Speaker 8>which wouldn't cover a tenth of the tab, they're unwilling

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<v Speaker 8>to raise taxes, it's all going to be borrowed from

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<v Speaker 8>the kids and grandkids.

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<v Speaker 3>We had a good run.

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<v Speaker 7>We're going to talk to Lon He Chen coming up

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<v Speaker 7>here in about... I'm going to ask him about monarchy.

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<v Speaker 7>Monarchy now. 15, 20 minutes about what starts tonight. which

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<v Speaker 7>is the presidential race, which is insane, but it's true.

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<v Speaker 7>It's true, it's true, and it's true. But at least

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<v Speaker 7>you've got the comfort of.

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<v Speaker 3>Your loyal dog, he says by way of transition.

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<v Speaker 8>Adding years of happiness and health to your dog's life,

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<v Speaker 8>reversing aging, that's what we're talking about, but not like

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<v Speaker 8>look for that shinier coat. I want a shiny coat.

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<v Speaker 8>I want that coat to be so damn shiny I

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<v Speaker 6>Woof.

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<v Speaker 7>You mentioned your shiny coat. I was thinking about my

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<v Speaker 7>hair or lack of it. My oldest is convinced that

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<v Speaker 7>he has my hair genetically. And that he will be

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<v Speaker 7>a bald man before he knows it. And he's trying

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<v Speaker 7>to prepare himself emotionally for that result. Trying to convince

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<v Speaker 7>him that my life has not been that horrific because

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<v Speaker 7>of my hair situation. I'm not sure it's held me

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<v Speaker 7>back in any way whatsoever, actually.

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<v Speaker 3>He's pretty worried about it.

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<v Speaker 8>My dad was bald. Both of my grandfathers were bald.

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<v Speaker 8>And I just assumed my entire life I would be balding.

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<v Speaker 8>And it kind of accepted it emotionally and then haven't.

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<v Speaker 8>So clearly I was adopted. Parents should have shopped another

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<v Speaker 8>couple of minutes at the orphanage before they picked me,

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<v Speaker 8>but what are you going to do?

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<v Speaker 3>Buyer beware.

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<v Speaker 7>Shopped at the orphanage.

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<v Speaker 3>Anyway. You have thoughts on the balding conversation? I do.

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<v Speaker 3>Let your son know that. bald is in right now

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<v Speaker 3>with the ladies.

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<v Speaker 7>Well, uh, like I said, I don't feel like it's

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<v Speaker 7>held me back in any way. And yeah, it, since what?

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<v Speaker 7>The mid nineties. Did Michael, does Michael Jordan get the

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<v Speaker 7>credit for being the first person to shave their head

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<v Speaker 7>and like really make it mainstream. But anyway, Um, after

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<v Speaker 7>it went mainstream to shave your head, if you don't

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<v Speaker 7>have much hair, it just, it doesn't matter anymore.

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<v Speaker 3>I don't feel it. And being behaired isn't a drawback either.

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<v Speaker 6>So.

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<v Speaker 3>No, no. You can't lose. No, no.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah.

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<v Speaker 3>I don't think it's that big a deal.

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<v Speaker 7>I mean, if you want to have options, I do,

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<v Speaker 7>I do tell my kids that like my youngest has

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<v Speaker 7>got serious rock and roll hair and just fantastic hair. And, uh,

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<v Speaker 7>and where's the thusly? And I, so he's got options.

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<v Speaker 3>I've never had options.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah.

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<v Speaker 3>My option is this egg. Egg is my option.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah.

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<v Speaker 3>And you can't afford eggs because we're bombing the Palestinians.

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<v Speaker 3>Thanks to the Jews. That's what I hear.

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<v Speaker 2>Wow.

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<v Speaker 3>Where do you go from there?

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<v Speaker 7>They say that the baldness comes from your mom's side.

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<v Speaker 7>I mean, that's the old saw, right?

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah. Get a new saw. Go down to the Home Depot.

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<v Speaker 7>But all the men in my family look exactly the same. Me,

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<v Speaker 7>my brother, my dad, his dad, his brothers all look

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<v Speaker 7>exactly the same. Same hair exactly. So you can say

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<v Speaker 7>it came from mom, but I don't know. There's three

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<v Speaker 7>generations there and all going through the man.

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<v Speaker 3>So if your mom's bald, you'll be bald. That's what

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<v Speaker 3>they claim. That's all bullcrap. I think it is bullcrap.

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<v Speaker 3>Nobody's sure. She's an egg. Bald as an egg.

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<v Speaker 7>We will talk to Lon He Chen coming up in

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<v Speaker 7>a little bit about where things are. He's actually one

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<v Speaker 7>of the smartest political pundits out there. He worked on

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<v Speaker 7>Rubio's campaign back in the day when Rubio was running

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<v Speaker 7>against Trump in 2016. So he probably has a soft

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<v Speaker 7>spot for Rubio. I definitely have a soft spot for

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<v Speaker 7>Rubio running for president. I hate the fact that he

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<v Speaker 7>says he won't run if J.D.

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<v Speaker 6>Does.

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<v Speaker 3>Why'd he do that? I'd have to ask Lonnie that.

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<v Speaker 3>Do you know? Have you had personal conversations?

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<v Speaker 6>I have.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, I do. I absolutely have an idea.

0:12:10.210 --> 0:12:12.230
<v Speaker 7>Well, I was going to ask Lonnie if he knows,

0:12:12.490 --> 0:12:15.500
<v Speaker 7>because he might actually have corresponded, and then he would

0:12:15.520 --> 0:12:18.760
<v Speaker 7>tell us, sharing their intimate conversations, of course, on the

0:12:18.780 --> 0:12:19.280
<v Speaker 7>radio show.

0:12:19.500 --> 0:12:22.900
<v Speaker 3>If he doesn't know, I will tell him, because I've

0:12:22.940 --> 0:12:24.880
<v Speaker 3>figured it out. How handy. So lots on the way.

0:12:24.980 --> 0:12:25.339
<v Speaker 3>Stay here.

0:12:25.360 --> 0:12:37.140
<v Speaker 2>Armstrong and Getty. The Armstrong and Getty Show.

0:12:38.290 --> 0:12:41.329
<v Speaker 10>The New York City Marathon on Sunday. More than 60,000

0:12:41.330 --> 0:12:46.270
<v Speaker 10>runners and among them 90-year-old Marty Granoff who says absolutely everyone.

0:12:45.890 --> 0:12:48.430
<v Speaker 3>Told him he's nuts. But you know what?

0:12:48.470 --> 0:12:51.210
<v Speaker 10>He ran it along with his son and grandson crossing

0:12:51.230 --> 0:12:54.050
<v Speaker 10>the finish line in 8 hours 26 minutes. He says

0:12:54.270 --> 0:12:56.390
<v Speaker 10>age has nothing to do with it.

0:12:57.730 --> 0:12:59.690
<v Speaker 3>It has something to do with it, old man, but

0:13:00.010 --> 0:13:02.350
<v Speaker 3>well done. 90 years old.

0:13:03.809 --> 0:13:07.120
<v Speaker 7>To get Through 26 miles, whether you walked, crawled, or

0:13:07.179 --> 0:13:08.500
<v Speaker 7>jogged is amazing.

0:13:09.000 --> 0:13:10.420
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, it's astonishing.

0:13:10.480 --> 0:13:12.460
<v Speaker 8>I walk a couple of miles a day, and if

0:13:12.540 --> 0:13:14.699
<v Speaker 8>I go like an extra mile, I'm tarred.

0:13:16.080 --> 0:13:20.020
<v Speaker 7>I've been running every other day following my close chat

0:13:20.059 --> 0:13:23.300
<v Speaker 7>GBT regimen for my 10K I'm going to run next year.

0:13:23.860 --> 0:13:25.699
<v Speaker 3>Good man. Excellent. Glad to hear it.

0:13:26.340 --> 0:13:28.300
<v Speaker 7>Maybe when I'm 90, I'll try to run a marathon.

0:13:29.460 --> 0:13:31.140
<v Speaker 3>It's important to have plans. There you go.

0:13:31.179 --> 0:13:34.949
<v Speaker 8>Put it on the calendar. Probably want an alert. like

0:13:34.990 --> 0:13:37.330
<v Speaker 8>an alarm because it'd be easier to forget.

0:13:37.910 --> 0:13:38.209
<v Speaker 7>Jeez.

0:13:38.270 --> 0:13:38.770
<v Speaker 3>That's right.

0:13:38.809 --> 0:13:40.750
<v Speaker 7>And then the alarm goes off and then I guess

0:13:40.770 --> 0:13:43.390
<v Speaker 7>I'm supposed to run a marathon. I haven't exercised in

0:13:43.390 --> 0:13:44.230
<v Speaker 7>30 years.

0:13:46.050 --> 0:13:46.410
<v Speaker 3>Shoot.

0:13:46.960 --> 0:13:49.180
<v Speaker 8>I should have set the alarm 10 minutes before the event.

0:13:50.440 --> 0:13:55.239
<v Speaker 8>So when can we expect any results? Well, not, not

0:13:55.300 --> 0:13:58.300
<v Speaker 8>for a while. I'm looking at the map of when

0:13:58.340 --> 0:13:59.959
<v Speaker 8>you get election results and.

0:13:59.920 --> 0:14:02.260
<v Speaker 3>It's, it's just, it's so stupid.

0:14:03.250 --> 0:14:07.190
<v Speaker 8>There are, it looks to be a quick count, 10

0:14:07.190 --> 0:14:09.939
<v Speaker 8>states that will have the results on election night.

0:14:09.980 --> 0:14:11.500
<v Speaker 3>There are 50 states, Joe.

0:14:12.660 --> 0:14:15.590
<v Speaker 8>There are 10 or so that will have their results

0:14:15.910 --> 0:14:21.270
<v Speaker 8>on election night. Oddly, they're all in the eastern half geographically.

0:14:21.340 --> 0:14:23.740
<v Speaker 8>The country more or less Oklahoma kind of pokes over

0:14:23.800 --> 0:14:26.160
<v Speaker 8>onto the western half, but I don't know why that is.

0:14:26.560 --> 0:14:28.920
<v Speaker 8>And then you've got states that will have the results

0:14:28.960 --> 0:14:32.580
<v Speaker 8>before noon tomorrow, and they are all in the eastern

0:14:32.710 --> 0:14:36.950
<v Speaker 8>two-thirds of the country. But practically the entire western United States,

0:14:38.090 --> 0:14:42.370
<v Speaker 8>with the exception of Wyoming and New Mexico and They

0:14:42.400 --> 0:14:43.730
<v Speaker 8>all make you wait days and days.

0:14:44.010 --> 0:14:47.190
<v Speaker 7>Okay, well, the two that I'm really most interested in,

0:14:48.470 --> 0:14:50.830
<v Speaker 7>Michigan by far number one, then Texas.

0:14:51.110 --> 0:14:52.590
<v Speaker 3>When's Michigan close their polls?

0:14:53.430 --> 0:14:56.770
<v Speaker 8>Well, I could get into when they close them, but

0:14:56.790 --> 0:14:58.870
<v Speaker 8>what's more important is when you get the results, and

0:14:58.890 --> 0:15:00.890
<v Speaker 8>they're both by noon tomorrow.

0:15:00.950 --> 0:15:01.170
<v Speaker 2>What?

0:15:01.350 --> 0:15:04.470
<v Speaker 3>So we might not know if Syed won tonight? That's correct, yeah.

0:15:05.540 --> 0:15:08.140
<v Speaker 8>Unless they do exit polling and projections and stuff like that.

0:15:08.260 --> 0:15:10.520
<v Speaker 8>I don't know how they release results in Michigan, whether

0:15:10.540 --> 0:15:11.320
<v Speaker 8>it's district by district.

0:15:11.340 --> 0:15:14.710
<v Speaker 7>If we're going to find out tomorrow, then all the

0:15:14.760 --> 0:15:20.650
<v Speaker 7>news coverage today is really stupid. Acting like something is happening.

0:15:20.850 --> 0:15:24.650
<v Speaker 7>It's not even happening today, let alone happening tonight, let

0:15:24.670 --> 0:15:25.850
<v Speaker 7>alone now.

0:15:26.450 --> 0:15:27.470
<v Speaker 3>Yeah.

0:15:27.510 --> 0:15:29.990
<v Speaker 7>Like they've got the clock down in the corner on CNN.

0:15:30.370 --> 0:15:34.570
<v Speaker 7>Four hours and 35 minutes. until coverage begins coverage of

0:15:34.730 --> 0:15:39.050
<v Speaker 7>what showing pictures of people in line and discussing the

0:15:39.090 --> 0:15:40.270
<v Speaker 7>same thing you've discussed for.

0:15:40.210 --> 0:15:44.650
<v Speaker 8>Two months yes so this is inexplicable to me in

0:15:44.740 --> 0:15:48.780
<v Speaker 8>south cackalack 96 of the votes will be counted by

0:15:48.860 --> 0:15:54.460
<v Speaker 8>midnight at least that's what happened in 2024 96 in

0:15:54.700 --> 0:15:58.840
<v Speaker 8>michigan it's 46 now they'll both have her done by

0:15:58.880 --> 0:16:04.310
<v Speaker 8>tomorrow at noon so that's that's great but Here's.

0:16:03.690 --> 0:16:06.510
<v Speaker 7>A question about South Carolina. Do you think in her

0:16:06.550 --> 0:16:09.990
<v Speaker 7>heart of hearts, Lindsey Graham's sister wants to win or lose?

0:16:10.370 --> 0:16:11.710
<v Speaker 7>I'll bet she wants to lose.

0:16:12.250 --> 0:16:15.650
<v Speaker 8>I think she's extremely ambivalent about it. I'll bet she

0:16:15.670 --> 0:16:18.570
<v Speaker 8>goes back and forth wondering how the hell this ever happened.

0:16:18.650 --> 0:16:22.460
<v Speaker 8>If she got to choose, she might choose winning. But

0:16:23.300 --> 0:16:26.440
<v Speaker 8>if she loses, when she gets that word, she is

0:16:26.480 --> 0:16:30.060
<v Speaker 8>going to have relief. And not that, what usually happens

0:16:30.100 --> 0:16:34.080
<v Speaker 8>with politicians, just devastating rejection. And what am I going

0:16:34.100 --> 0:16:35.790
<v Speaker 8>to do with my life now? She's not going to

0:16:35.800 --> 0:16:36.380
<v Speaker 8>have any of that.

0:16:36.680 --> 0:16:39.000
<v Speaker 3>You are 100% correct, I believe.

0:16:39.090 --> 0:16:39.250
<v Speaker 2>Yeah.

0:16:39.620 --> 0:16:42.650
<v Speaker 8>I think if you could probe into her heart of

0:16:42.730 --> 0:16:46.390
<v Speaker 8>hearts and put a percentage on it, I think she

0:16:46.430 --> 0:16:46.970
<v Speaker 8>wants to win 51-49.

0:16:46.970 --> 0:16:47.110
<v Speaker 2>Yeah.

0:16:50.290 --> 0:16:57.710
<v Speaker 8>Anyway, so one more interesting bit of timeline stuff. In 2022,

0:16:57.710 --> 0:17:02.920
<v Speaker 8>the House was called eight days after the election. The

0:17:03.000 --> 0:17:08.220
<v Speaker 8>Senate was called four days after the election. In 2024,

0:17:08.220 --> 0:17:12.679
<v Speaker 8>the House was called eight days later. The Senate was

0:17:12.760 --> 0:17:16.359
<v Speaker 8>called at midnight 06 Eastern on election night.

0:17:18.180 --> 0:17:24.409
<v Speaker 3>So, you know. We'll call it the way we see it.

0:17:27.900 --> 0:17:31.859
<v Speaker 7>I'm keeping my eye on El-Sayed's acceptance speech if he wins.

0:17:33.200 --> 0:17:33.420
<v Speaker 8>Why?

0:17:33.440 --> 0:17:35.440
<v Speaker 7>I want to know if he's going to try to

0:17:35.540 --> 0:17:38.800
<v Speaker 7>moderate it all or if he's going to think, ah, here.

0:17:38.680 --> 0:17:39.510
<v Speaker 3>We go, bitches.

0:17:41.200 --> 0:17:45.110
<v Speaker 8>No, I still, my theory remains no. As a dedicated Islamist,

0:17:45.150 --> 0:17:47.709
<v Speaker 8>he has a very, very long view. Now, you have

0:17:47.770 --> 0:17:51.149
<v Speaker 8>pointed out that he doesn't seem willing or able to

0:17:51.270 --> 0:17:52.629
<v Speaker 8>discipline himself at times.

0:17:52.960 --> 0:17:53.820
<v Speaker 3>He just can't.

0:17:54.320 --> 0:17:58.070
<v Speaker 8>Like that Ross Dutha interview on 60 Minutes. All he

0:17:58.090 --> 0:18:00.430
<v Speaker 8>had to say was, does Israel, does Palestine have a

0:18:00.430 --> 0:18:00.830
<v Speaker 8>right to?

0:18:00.930 --> 0:18:01.110
<v Speaker 2>Yes.

0:18:01.490 --> 0:18:04.129
<v Speaker 3>Does Israel have a right to? Yes, of course. Both do.

0:18:04.570 --> 0:18:06.230
<v Speaker 3>We need a Tuesday. But no, he couldn't.

0:18:06.290 --> 0:18:09.930
<v Speaker 8>No, Israel can only exist if they, and if we

0:18:10.050 --> 0:18:13.130
<v Speaker 8>see this, he just, he doesn't have the discipline. But

0:18:13.950 --> 0:18:17.310
<v Speaker 8>if he is reminded by his imam, what's at stake,

0:18:17.350 --> 0:18:20.090
<v Speaker 8>he'll clamp down and continue to pretend to be what

0:18:20.130 --> 0:18:21.129
<v Speaker 8>he's been pretending to be.

0:18:22.730 --> 0:18:25.320
<v Speaker 7>One of the best political pundits in America with all

0:18:25.340 --> 0:18:28.640
<v Speaker 7>the knowledge to back up his punditry. Lon Heachin coming

0:18:28.680 --> 0:18:28.960
<v Speaker 7>up next.

0:18:29.820 --> 0:18:42.330
<v Speaker 2>Armstrong and Getty. The Armstrong and Getty Show.

0:18:44.790 --> 0:18:46.550
<v Speaker 5>I was talking to my daughter, who's four years old,

0:18:47.470 --> 0:18:49.570
<v Speaker 5>and I said, honey, we're going to start getting ready

0:18:49.630 --> 0:18:52.550
<v Speaker 5>for our toy drive. We try to, you know, Give

0:18:52.690 --> 0:18:55.630
<v Speaker 5>some toys to Toys for Tots. We're now in November

0:18:55.690 --> 0:18:59.810
<v Speaker 5>getting ready for Christmas. And I'd like you to identify

0:18:59.869 --> 0:19:02.330
<v Speaker 5>maybe a couple toys you'd like to donate here. So

0:19:02.369 --> 0:19:08.659
<v Speaker 5>she brings me two of her brother's toys. And I

0:19:08.720 --> 0:19:12.040
<v Speaker 5>realized that despite my best efforts, ladies and gentlemen, I

0:19:12.060 --> 0:19:13.899
<v Speaker 5>have apparently raised a Democrat.

0:19:15.300 --> 0:19:16.359
<v Speaker 3>Hey, J.D.

0:19:16.400 --> 0:19:20.000
<v Speaker 7>Vance working the room there. He is currently leading in

0:19:20.040 --> 0:19:24.050
<v Speaker 7>the polls. You average all the big polls. Who's going

0:19:24.070 --> 0:19:26.150
<v Speaker 7>to be the nominee for president for Republican?

0:19:26.190 --> 0:19:26.470
<v Speaker 6>J.D.

0:19:26.490 --> 0:19:28.100
<v Speaker 7>Vance is in the lead by quite a bit. On

0:19:28.119 --> 0:19:29.820
<v Speaker 7>the Democratic side, it's Kamala Harris.

0:19:29.880 --> 0:19:30.540
<v Speaker 3>So it's going to be J.D.

0:19:30.560 --> 0:19:34.379
<v Speaker 7>Vance versus Kamala Harris for 2028 for president, except for these.

0:19:34.240 --> 0:19:36.200
<v Speaker 3>Early polls are always, always wrong.

0:19:38.380 --> 0:19:38.880
<v Speaker 6>Oh, boy.

0:19:38.960 --> 0:19:42.730
<v Speaker 8>To discuss this and much, much more, Lonnie Chen, David

0:19:42.750 --> 0:19:45.450
<v Speaker 8>and Diane Steffi Fellow in American Public Policy Studies at

0:19:45.470 --> 0:19:48.780
<v Speaker 8>the Hoover Institution. Lonhee's also the Director of Domestic Policy

0:19:48.820 --> 0:19:50.340
<v Speaker 8>Studies at Stanford University.

0:19:50.380 --> 0:19:52.120
<v Speaker 3>And he joins us now. Lonhee, how are you, sir?

0:19:52.940 --> 0:19:54.659
<v Speaker 6>I'm doing well. Great to be with you both on

0:19:54.700 --> 0:19:55.240
<v Speaker 6>Election Day.

0:19:55.380 --> 0:19:57.899
<v Speaker 7>So here's our theory in talking to you, because we're

0:19:57.920 --> 0:19:59.520
<v Speaker 7>going to have you on tomorrow when we'll actually have

0:19:59.560 --> 0:20:01.340
<v Speaker 7>some results to talk about. But since we ain't got

0:20:01.380 --> 0:20:03.560
<v Speaker 7>no results today, thought we thought maybe we'd talk about

0:20:04.410 --> 0:20:07.750
<v Speaker 7>the presidential election, which I'm told kicks off tonight when

0:20:07.790 --> 0:20:10.180
<v Speaker 7>the polls close. So let's start with the premise. All

0:20:10.220 --> 0:20:14.020
<v Speaker 7>the pundits out there that say the race for 2028

0:20:14.020 --> 0:20:15.919
<v Speaker 7>for the presidency begins tonight.

0:20:15.980 --> 0:20:16.440
<v Speaker 3>Is that true?

0:20:17.820 --> 0:20:21.220
<v Speaker 6>The race for the 2028 presidency began two years ago.

0:20:22.619 --> 0:20:25.100
<v Speaker 6>It's just that we'll see it bubble up, you know,

0:20:25.140 --> 0:20:27.740
<v Speaker 6>beyond the surface tonight. I mean, the funny thing is

0:20:28.800 --> 0:20:31.940
<v Speaker 6>you interview not you, but the media has interviewed all

0:20:31.980 --> 0:20:33.810
<v Speaker 6>of these people who are probably going to run and

0:20:33.850 --> 0:20:38.070
<v Speaker 6>they've had to basically not say they're running. But somehow

0:20:38.150 --> 0:20:41.370
<v Speaker 6>it becomes acceptable starting tomorrow for them to say they

0:20:41.430 --> 0:20:44.609
<v Speaker 6>are running. And this stupid charade we play in American

0:20:44.650 --> 0:20:47.970
<v Speaker 6>politics where, oh, you know, I'm really focused.

0:20:48.030 --> 0:20:48.760
<v Speaker 3>I heard J.B.

0:20:48.790 --> 0:20:51.399
<v Speaker 6>Pritzker, the governor of Illinois. I'm really focused on the

0:20:51.440 --> 0:20:54.920
<v Speaker 6>people of Illinois. But, you know, at 12 or 1 a.m.

0:20:54.960 --> 0:20:57.840
<v Speaker 6>on November 4th, my focus will magically change to the

0:20:57.880 --> 0:20:58.700
<v Speaker 6>American people.

0:20:59.290 --> 0:21:00.230
<v Speaker 3>That's what we're going to hear.

0:21:00.670 --> 0:21:07.189
<v Speaker 6>And it's, you know, any. thinking about this process for years.

0:21:07.310 --> 0:21:10.980
<v Speaker 6>They've been setting up organization. They've been thinking about who

0:21:11.000 --> 0:21:13.540
<v Speaker 6>they need to hire. They've been thinking about what contrast

0:21:13.560 --> 0:21:16.399
<v Speaker 6>they want to draw. This is a multi-year process. And

0:21:16.500 --> 0:21:19.439
<v Speaker 6>I've been involved in these several times over the years

0:21:19.540 --> 0:21:21.530
<v Speaker 6>where people are thinking about whether they want to run

0:21:21.550 --> 0:21:24.090
<v Speaker 6>for president. I will tell you, it does not magically

0:21:24.150 --> 0:21:26.450
<v Speaker 6>happen the morning after the election, but that's the way

0:21:26.710 --> 0:21:28.850
<v Speaker 6>that these guys make it seem, which is just idiotic.

0:21:29.760 --> 0:21:33.580
<v Speaker 8>Yeah, first of all, congratulations, Lon. He, in embracing an

0:21:33.660 --> 0:21:36.840
<v Speaker 8>Armstrong and Getty-esque bluntness, describing.

0:21:36.320 --> 0:21:39.050
<v Speaker 3>The political scene. We need more of that.

0:21:39.700 --> 0:21:42.750
<v Speaker 8>So we played a little audio of J.D. Vance coming back,

0:21:42.869 --> 0:21:47.770
<v Speaker 8>and J.D. Vance is extremely bright and very, very calculating.

0:21:48.510 --> 0:21:51.109
<v Speaker 8>And you can see the machinations of him trying to

0:21:51.150 --> 0:21:53.670
<v Speaker 8>hold together this coalition and make sure that slice of

0:21:53.710 --> 0:21:56.030
<v Speaker 8>the pie sticks with him, even though they're objectionable to

0:21:56.070 --> 0:21:56.910
<v Speaker 8>these people over there.

0:21:58.250 --> 0:21:58.929
<v Speaker 3>Is he too.

0:22:00.880 --> 0:22:05.240
<v Speaker 8>What's the phrase? Too smart by half. Is he an

0:22:05.420 --> 0:22:07.369
<v Speaker 8>overthinker or is that what you need to be in

0:22:07.650 --> 0:22:08.270
<v Speaker 8>the modern world?

0:22:09.510 --> 0:22:12.260
<v Speaker 6>I think he is. I don't think he's overthinking it.

0:22:12.290 --> 0:22:15.000
<v Speaker 6>I think he's encountering a very real challenge, which is

0:22:15.080 --> 0:22:18.760
<v Speaker 6>what happens to Trump's coalition after Trump. And it's not

0:22:18.800 --> 0:22:21.939
<v Speaker 6>going to be the same coalition for Vice President Vance

0:22:22.100 --> 0:22:24.379
<v Speaker 6>as it was for Trump. And I think he is

0:22:24.460 --> 0:22:28.270
<v Speaker 6>trying to determine what that coalition looks like. So I

0:22:28.470 --> 0:22:30.270
<v Speaker 6>don't think it's overthinking it. I think it's just a

0:22:30.310 --> 0:22:34.210
<v Speaker 6>massive challenge of what do you do when– such a

0:22:34.490 --> 0:22:37.310
<v Speaker 6>significant figure, you know, whether you like him or not,

0:22:37.990 --> 0:22:40.880
<v Speaker 6>President Trump is a significant figure in our politics, maybe

0:22:40.920 --> 0:22:45.440
<v Speaker 6>the most significant figure in recent history. The question becomes like, well,

0:22:45.460 --> 0:22:47.600
<v Speaker 6>what do you do, right? As a candidate trying to

0:22:47.660 --> 0:22:51.000
<v Speaker 6>succeed him, do you go to the exact same playbook?

0:22:51.040 --> 0:22:53.439
<v Speaker 6>Probably not. So if you have a different playbook, what

0:22:53.460 --> 0:22:55.830
<v Speaker 6>does that look like? Who are you going after? Who

0:22:55.869 --> 0:22:58.890
<v Speaker 6>are the gettable voters? Are there voters who didn't vote

0:22:58.930 --> 0:23:03.780
<v Speaker 6>for Trump that would vote for a Are there voters

0:23:03.840 --> 0:23:06.540
<v Speaker 6>who voted for Trump who won't vote for J.D. Vance? There, too,

0:23:06.580 --> 0:23:09.540
<v Speaker 6>I think the answer is yes. So he's got a

0:23:09.680 --> 0:23:12.540
<v Speaker 6>very challenging task ahead. And I think he's trying to

0:23:12.580 --> 0:23:15.280
<v Speaker 6>figure that out, as pretty much every other Republican who

0:23:15.320 --> 0:23:17.260
<v Speaker 6>might run for president is figuring out, which is how

0:23:17.300 --> 0:23:20.070
<v Speaker 6>do you assemble a coalition? that gets you across the

0:23:20.090 --> 0:23:22.670
<v Speaker 6>finish line in the way that Donald Trump got across

0:23:22.690 --> 0:23:24.330
<v Speaker 6>the finish line. It's just not going to be the same.

0:23:24.410 --> 0:23:27.370
<v Speaker 6>I mean, it's extraordinary what Trump did winning those Rust

0:23:27.410 --> 0:23:30.630
<v Speaker 6>Belt states that Republicans had not been competitive in for many,

0:23:30.670 --> 0:23:32.980
<v Speaker 6>many years. Is it going to be that formula or

0:23:33.000 --> 0:23:34.960
<v Speaker 6>is it going to look completely different? I think that's

0:23:35.000 --> 0:23:36.860
<v Speaker 6>the big question we've got to answer over the next

0:23:36.900 --> 0:23:37.420
<v Speaker 6>couple of years.

0:23:37.859 --> 0:23:38.800
<v Speaker 3>Super quick follow up.

0:23:39.000 --> 0:23:41.060
<v Speaker 8>And what I was driving at with the question was,

0:23:41.180 --> 0:23:43.700
<v Speaker 8>if you look at somebody like Reagan, he was not,

0:23:44.200 --> 0:23:48.550
<v Speaker 8>you know, yeah, micro-analyzing the various constituencies that make up

0:23:48.570 --> 0:23:51.450
<v Speaker 8>the Republican or potential Republican voter, he was saying, here's

0:23:51.510 --> 0:23:54.300
<v Speaker 8>a vision, and I think it's going to work. That's

0:23:54.340 --> 0:23:59.699
<v Speaker 8>oversimplifying it, but is there room for a visionary or

0:23:59.820 --> 0:24:03.900
<v Speaker 8>somebody saying, look, I have a plan, let's do this,

0:24:04.030 --> 0:24:06.770
<v Speaker 8>as opposed to, you know, pandering, essentially.

0:24:07.490 --> 0:24:09.419
<v Speaker 6>Well, this is I mean, again, I think this is

0:24:09.460 --> 0:24:12.400
<v Speaker 6>going to be the issue because Republicans have not had

0:24:12.540 --> 0:24:15.419
<v Speaker 6>to be anything other than the party of Trump for

0:24:15.440 --> 0:24:17.240
<v Speaker 6>the last couple of years. And that's had both good

0:24:17.280 --> 0:24:21.020
<v Speaker 6>sides and bad sides. The next Republican nominee is absolutely

0:24:21.040 --> 0:24:22.959
<v Speaker 6>going to have to do exactly what you said, which

0:24:23.020 --> 0:24:26.640
<v Speaker 6>is articulate a vision for what what are the next four, eight,

0:24:26.640 --> 0:24:30.220
<v Speaker 6>12 years look like under Republican governance. And it's not

0:24:30.440 --> 0:24:32.560
<v Speaker 6>it's not sufficient. It's just not going to be sufficient

0:24:32.600 --> 0:24:34.790
<v Speaker 6>to say, Well, we're going to we're going to run

0:24:34.830 --> 0:24:37.470
<v Speaker 6>the Trump playbook over again, whether that's a policy playbook

0:24:37.530 --> 0:24:39.300
<v Speaker 6>or a political playbook. It's just not going to work.

0:24:39.390 --> 0:24:41.740
<v Speaker 6>And so that that is going to be the big challenge.

0:24:41.960 --> 0:24:44.879
<v Speaker 6>And the vice president has the opportunity to rise to

0:24:44.900 --> 0:24:47.530
<v Speaker 6>that occasion to say, look, here's here's my vision. Here's

0:24:47.570 --> 0:24:49.939
<v Speaker 6>what I want to do. But I've been saying for

0:24:49.960 --> 0:24:51.680
<v Speaker 6>a long time, guys, I really believe this. This is

0:24:51.700 --> 0:24:54.480
<v Speaker 6>going to be a very crowded field in 2028 on

0:24:54.500 --> 0:24:56.119
<v Speaker 6>the Republican side as well. It's not going to be

0:24:56.140 --> 0:24:58.830
<v Speaker 6>a coronation. That's not how President Trump wants it. And

0:24:58.850 --> 0:25:00.770
<v Speaker 6>there's a lot of ambitious people out there who want

0:25:00.810 --> 0:25:02.429
<v Speaker 6>to raise their profile and want to be in the

0:25:02.490 --> 0:25:03.889
<v Speaker 6>mix and want to be in the discussion for 2028

0:25:03.890 --> 0:25:07.190
<v Speaker 6>and beyond. So I think we're headed into a really

0:25:07.369 --> 0:25:10.770
<v Speaker 6>disrupted period of politics where, you know, the left's got

0:25:10.790 --> 0:25:12.710
<v Speaker 6>their own challenges. We can talk about those another time.

0:25:13.109 --> 0:25:15.530
<v Speaker 6>But on the right, the question, the big question is

0:25:15.550 --> 0:25:19.170
<v Speaker 6>going to be, what is that next phase of Republican

0:25:19.190 --> 0:25:21.410
<v Speaker 6>politics looks like? It looked like and I don't think

0:25:21.450 --> 0:25:23.410
<v Speaker 6>it's going to be, you know, let's run the Trump

0:25:23.450 --> 0:25:25.859
<v Speaker 6>playbook again, because that was successful for Trump. I'm not

0:25:25.880 --> 0:25:27.600
<v Speaker 6>sure it's going to be successful for anybody else.

0:25:28.240 --> 0:25:30.340
<v Speaker 7>Yeah, so Chris Christie was out today saying if the

0:25:30.359 --> 0:25:32.440
<v Speaker 7>Republicans lose big, you got to hang it around J.D.

0:25:32.460 --> 0:25:35.630
<v Speaker 7>Vance's neck. And Chris Christie has said he's thinking about

0:25:35.650 --> 0:25:37.590
<v Speaker 7>running for president. So that was taking a shot at

0:25:37.609 --> 0:25:39.350
<v Speaker 7>the guy at the top right now. But so you

0:25:39.369 --> 0:25:41.909
<v Speaker 7>mentioned something a little bit ago. And I did want

0:25:41.930 --> 0:25:45.119
<v Speaker 7>to get into Marco Rubio because he finishes second or

0:25:45.160 --> 0:25:47.659
<v Speaker 7>first in all these early polls. And you used to

0:25:47.700 --> 0:25:50.380
<v Speaker 7>work on his campaign. But you said you've been involved

0:25:50.420 --> 0:25:52.900
<v Speaker 7>with people who are in that early stage of deciding

0:25:52.920 --> 0:25:55.560
<v Speaker 7>to run or not. The people who decide not to run.

0:25:56.080 --> 0:25:58.600
<v Speaker 7>What causes somebody to decide not to run?

0:25:59.800 --> 0:26:03.530
<v Speaker 6>Great question. I think it's a combination of many different things.

0:26:03.690 --> 0:26:06.470
<v Speaker 6>First of all, all of these people who are thinking

0:26:06.490 --> 0:26:09.669
<v Speaker 6>about running for president, they are very keen observers of

0:26:09.730 --> 0:26:12.730
<v Speaker 6>our politics, okay? And they understand what's going on in

0:26:12.750 --> 0:26:16.240
<v Speaker 6>the political environment probably better than most others because they're

0:26:16.260 --> 0:26:18.800
<v Speaker 6>in it every day. And I would say the top

0:26:18.880 --> 0:26:22.950
<v Speaker 6>reason is because they just don't see that they're going

0:26:22.970 --> 0:26:25.910
<v Speaker 6>to be able to win. And, um, they don't see

0:26:25.950 --> 0:26:28.370
<v Speaker 6>that there's a whole lot to be gained from being

0:26:28.390 --> 0:26:30.719
<v Speaker 6>in a process where they don't win. That's not going

0:26:30.740 --> 0:26:33.340
<v Speaker 6>to apply to everybody. Okay. There's some people who run

0:26:33.380 --> 0:26:35.700
<v Speaker 6>just because it raises their awareness.

0:26:35.820 --> 0:26:36.080
<v Speaker 1>Yeah.

0:26:36.440 --> 0:26:38.920
<v Speaker 6>Well, or I mean, look at Vivek Ramaswamy.

0:26:38.960 --> 0:26:40.560
<v Speaker 3>That's a good example of somebody, right.

0:26:40.619 --> 0:26:44.730
<v Speaker 6>Who, who went from being no, having no political profile to,

0:26:44.970 --> 0:26:47.090
<v Speaker 6>you know, now being one of the final two contenders

0:26:47.130 --> 0:26:50.050
<v Speaker 6>for governor of Ohio. So I think for some people,

0:26:50.490 --> 0:26:52.869
<v Speaker 6>they look at the environment and they would say, you

0:26:52.910 --> 0:26:55.570
<v Speaker 6>know what? I just don't see this happening for me.

0:26:55.609 --> 0:26:57.840
<v Speaker 6>I don't see it happening for fill in the blank party.

0:26:58.780 --> 0:27:03.260
<v Speaker 6>It's it is a tremendous expenditure of time, effort, energy.

0:27:03.780 --> 0:27:05.240
<v Speaker 6>And it has to be a labor of love when

0:27:05.280 --> 0:27:06.000
<v Speaker 6>you run for president.

0:27:06.119 --> 0:27:09.160
<v Speaker 7>Is it ever is it ever what they tell the media?

0:27:09.340 --> 0:27:10.879
<v Speaker 7>You know, I did not put my family through it

0:27:10.940 --> 0:27:11.660
<v Speaker 7>or anything like that.

0:27:12.320 --> 0:27:14.320
<v Speaker 6>Of course not. I mean, they come up with all

0:27:14.359 --> 0:27:16.700
<v Speaker 6>sorts of great excuses, usually centering around, well, I really

0:27:16.720 --> 0:27:18.219
<v Speaker 6>just want to spend time with my kids the next

0:27:18.260 --> 0:27:19.460
<v Speaker 6>couple of years. And it's like, where were you the

0:27:19.520 --> 0:27:24.560
<v Speaker 6>last 12 years? But I know. I mean, of course,

0:27:24.600 --> 0:27:27.200
<v Speaker 6>they're going to come up with an excuse. But that

0:27:27.260 --> 0:27:29.600
<v Speaker 6>is the raw political calculus. And I've been around that

0:27:29.640 --> 0:27:33.160
<v Speaker 6>table when that decision was made to basically go, no, go.

0:27:33.240 --> 0:27:37.060
<v Speaker 6>And you decide, no, we're not going to go. Wow. Because, because,

0:27:37.200 --> 0:27:39.050
<v Speaker 6>you know, all of the data and all the instincts

0:27:39.090 --> 0:27:41.010
<v Speaker 6>tell us this is just not, it's not going to

0:27:41.030 --> 0:27:43.470
<v Speaker 6>be good cycle. And there's a lot of productive ways

0:27:43.490 --> 0:27:44.340
<v Speaker 6>to spend four years.

0:27:44.440 --> 0:27:45.820
<v Speaker 3>It's going to be hard to let go of.

0:27:46.740 --> 0:27:50.390
<v Speaker 6>Very hard, very hard, but. I mean let's just take

0:27:50.430 --> 0:27:53.010
<v Speaker 6>someone like Rubio as an example, right? Here's a guy

0:27:53.050 --> 0:27:55.929
<v Speaker 6>who's got a tremendous– in my view, a tremendous political

0:27:55.990 --> 0:27:59.369
<v Speaker 6>future ahead. He's a young guy who could afford if

0:27:59.410 --> 0:28:02.210
<v Speaker 6>he decided he wanted to sit out 2028, could very

0:28:02.250 --> 0:28:05.129
<v Speaker 6>well afford to do that if that's what he decided

0:28:05.170 --> 0:28:08.899
<v Speaker 6>to do because he's got the potential whenever he decides

0:28:08.960 --> 0:28:12.000
<v Speaker 6>to do that, to do the run again. to be

0:28:12.160 --> 0:28:15.320
<v Speaker 6>extremely formidable. And he's going to make that decision on

0:28:15.820 --> 0:28:18.700
<v Speaker 6>his terms. And I think that there may be a

0:28:18.740 --> 0:28:20.609
<v Speaker 6>few others who fall into that category, not a ton.

0:28:21.130 --> 0:28:22.910
<v Speaker 6>But I think, you know, there are people who can

0:28:22.970 --> 0:28:25.430
<v Speaker 6>make the decision to sit this one out and potentially

0:28:25.470 --> 0:28:28.479
<v Speaker 6>be better off. But You know, it's all about what

0:28:28.500 --> 0:28:30.379
<v Speaker 6>are the data tell us? What are what are the

0:28:30.460 --> 0:28:32.770
<v Speaker 6>instincts say to the person? And yeah, you know, look,

0:28:32.790 --> 0:28:35.930
<v Speaker 6>there's personal considerations as well, because running for president is really,

0:28:35.970 --> 0:28:38.890
<v Speaker 6>really hard. And you've got to be willing to invest

0:28:39.070 --> 0:28:42.030
<v Speaker 6>all of your time, effort, energy, everything else into it.

0:28:42.810 --> 0:28:45.540
<v Speaker 8>We're talking to the fabulous Lonnie Chen of the Hoover Institution,

0:28:45.600 --> 0:28:49.760
<v Speaker 8>Stanford University. Lonnie, I've got a handful of articles assembled here.

0:28:49.780 --> 0:28:53.440
<v Speaker 8>I was thinking about talking about this topic at some

0:28:53.480 --> 0:28:58.390
<v Speaker 8>point today. Colorado's abandoning its fiscal discipline or it's trying

0:28:58.430 --> 0:29:02.390
<v Speaker 8>to pass ballot measures because it's actually been admirably disciplined

0:29:02.890 --> 0:29:05.730
<v Speaker 8>fiscally for a long time. Here's the headline panic and

0:29:06.070 --> 0:29:12.020
<v Speaker 8>anger spread as Europe's great pension covenant covenant unravels. And

0:29:12.060 --> 0:29:14.880
<v Speaker 8>then from the wall street journal, where did all the

0:29:15.000 --> 0:29:19.180
<v Speaker 8>fiscal Hawks, why did all the fiscal Hawks go extinct?

0:29:19.880 --> 0:29:25.580
<v Speaker 8>So my question is, Is fiscal responsibility, sobriety, just pretty

0:29:25.700 --> 0:29:26.960
<v Speaker 8>much dead at this point?

0:29:28.820 --> 0:29:32.640
<v Speaker 6>Oh, I hope not. But I do think politically the

0:29:33.000 --> 0:29:37.729
<v Speaker 6>constituency for fiscal discipline is a lot smaller today than

0:29:37.770 --> 0:29:40.380
<v Speaker 6>it was, you know, let's call it in the late 80s. 2000,

0:29:40.380 --> 0:29:44.070
<v Speaker 6>you know, the sort of 2010 to 2012 period when

0:29:44.090 --> 0:29:45.870
<v Speaker 6>the Tea Party was ascended. And that was sort of

0:29:45.910 --> 0:29:48.970
<v Speaker 6>the top issue in a lot of ways. Interestingly enough,

0:29:49.030 --> 0:29:51.840
<v Speaker 6>if you ask voters today what their top concerns are.

0:29:52.420 --> 0:29:56.680
<v Speaker 6>Deficits and fiscal issues still do make the list. But

0:29:56.720 --> 0:29:58.860
<v Speaker 6>then when you talk about what it would actually take

0:29:58.920 --> 0:30:03.610
<v Speaker 6>to address those challenges, like, for example, reforming Social Security

0:30:03.630 --> 0:30:06.290
<v Speaker 6>and Medicare, people don't want it. They're not interested in

0:30:06.830 --> 0:30:09.650
<v Speaker 6>taking the steps that would actually be needed to curb

0:30:09.690 --> 0:30:13.209
<v Speaker 6>some of our fiscal challenges. But this, to me, is

0:30:13.490 --> 0:30:17.310
<v Speaker 6>the single biggest long-run issue we face in America. We

0:30:17.390 --> 0:30:19.959
<v Speaker 6>have to get this right. And the fact that we

0:30:20.010 --> 0:30:23.709
<v Speaker 6>did not address it back in 2007, 2008, 2009, when

0:30:23.770 --> 0:30:26.010
<v Speaker 6>Obama was president, the fact that we didn't get it

0:30:26.070 --> 0:30:29.330
<v Speaker 6>done then was a big pox on all of our houses.

0:30:29.570 --> 0:30:32.450
<v Speaker 6>And this only gets harder to deal with. The math

0:30:32.490 --> 0:30:35.930
<v Speaker 6>does not get easier. But the constituency, guys, is just

0:30:35.990 --> 0:30:38.520
<v Speaker 6>not there. Politically, it is not popular to sit there

0:30:38.540 --> 0:30:41.880
<v Speaker 6>and argue for entitlement reform. or to think about how

0:30:41.920 --> 0:30:44.240
<v Speaker 6>we have a tax code that better make sure that

0:30:44.280 --> 0:30:45.880
<v Speaker 6>we are raising the right amount of revenue. I mean,

0:30:45.940 --> 0:30:48.500
<v Speaker 6>these are not discussions people want to have right now.

0:30:48.560 --> 0:30:49.560
<v Speaker 6>And it's unfortunate.

0:30:50.120 --> 0:30:52.760
<v Speaker 7>So name recognition is huge in these early polls. And

0:30:53.120 --> 0:30:55.760
<v Speaker 7>often that person doesn't end up even close to the nominee.

0:30:55.920 --> 0:30:59.420
<v Speaker 7>See Rudy Giuliani or Hillary Clinton, depending on the year.

0:31:00.040 --> 0:31:03.500
<v Speaker 7>And but Kamala Harris, is she actually going to put

0:31:03.540 --> 0:31:05.640
<v Speaker 7>herself through this again?

0:31:05.660 --> 0:31:09.010
<v Speaker 3>I can't even imagine who would advise her to do that.

0:31:10.600 --> 0:31:13.580
<v Speaker 6>I honestly, I have no idea. It does not seem

0:31:13.640 --> 0:31:17.060
<v Speaker 6>to me to be smart on her part. I just

0:31:17.100 --> 0:31:21.060
<v Speaker 6>don't think that dog will hunt in 2028. But here's

0:31:21.080 --> 0:31:25.900
<v Speaker 6>the thing. Sometimes for these political figures, what else are

0:31:25.920 --> 0:31:28.140
<v Speaker 6>they going to do? I mean, literally, what else are

0:31:28.160 --> 0:31:30.540
<v Speaker 6>they going to do, right? If they don't run for president,

0:31:30.600 --> 0:31:32.880
<v Speaker 6>what does their life look like? If they're not involved

0:31:33.800 --> 0:31:36.820
<v Speaker 6>in that discussion, do they have any kind of political

0:31:36.880 --> 0:31:39.670
<v Speaker 6>swag at all? And This might be part of her calculus.

0:31:40.210 --> 0:31:42.490
<v Speaker 6>I don't know, frankly, what's animating it.

0:31:42.960 --> 0:31:45.140
<v Speaker 7>There's that old saying about running for president is like

0:31:45.180 --> 0:31:47.400
<v Speaker 7>having sex. You don't do it once and then think, well,

0:31:47.420 --> 0:31:47.860
<v Speaker 7>that was fun.

0:31:47.880 --> 0:31:48.820
<v Speaker 3>No need to do it again.

0:31:48.840 --> 0:31:52.460
<v Speaker 8>It kind of compels you to want to try it again.

0:31:52.480 --> 0:31:53.440
<v Speaker 3>I actually haven't heard that one.

0:31:54.320 --> 0:31:57.570
<v Speaker 6>I actually haven't heard that one. That's pretty good. I

0:31:58.180 --> 0:32:03.010
<v Speaker 6>think that that she. I just don't know. I don't

0:32:03.030 --> 0:32:04.990
<v Speaker 6>know if it's a lack of self-awareness. I don't know

0:32:05.010 --> 0:32:08.830
<v Speaker 6>if it's just like, why not? Why not? Why not

0:32:08.890 --> 0:32:12.090
<v Speaker 6>give it a shot? Because everyone else is. But when

0:32:12.110 --> 0:32:14.250
<v Speaker 6>the field is that wide open, as we're going to

0:32:14.290 --> 0:32:19.090
<v Speaker 6>see in 2028, there is literally no contender that people

0:32:19.110 --> 0:32:21.260
<v Speaker 6>would look at and say, that's the heir apparent. It's

0:32:21.300 --> 0:32:23.030
<v Speaker 6>not like on the Republican side where you've got a

0:32:23.080 --> 0:32:25.440
<v Speaker 6>sitting vice president, probably is going to run or maybe

0:32:25.480 --> 0:32:28.940
<v Speaker 6>will run. And that looks quite obvious. On the Democratic side,

0:32:28.960 --> 0:32:31.900
<v Speaker 6>it is wide open. And so she probably thinks, You know,

0:32:31.940 --> 0:32:34.260
<v Speaker 6>I mean, everybody looks at it and says, why not me?

0:32:35.040 --> 0:32:38.280
<v Speaker 6>And that's the first question. I mean, if you're advising

0:32:38.320 --> 0:32:42.040
<v Speaker 6>someone who's thinking about running for president, every conversation starts

0:32:42.060 --> 0:32:43.840
<v Speaker 6>the same way. Hey, why not me?

0:32:44.420 --> 0:32:44.820
<v Speaker 3>Why not?

0:32:45.140 --> 0:32:45.340
<v Speaker 2>Right.

0:32:46.180 --> 0:32:47.900
<v Speaker 6>And so you end up with a bunch of people

0:32:47.970 --> 0:32:49.830
<v Speaker 6>running and you're like, who are these people? Well, the

0:32:49.870 --> 0:32:52.250
<v Speaker 6>reality is that for most of them, it's because they

0:32:52.290 --> 0:32:55.450
<v Speaker 6>have talked themselves into they have done the opposite of

0:32:55.470 --> 0:32:57.850
<v Speaker 6>what we talked about earlier. Instead of sitting there and

0:32:57.910 --> 0:33:00.090
<v Speaker 6>calmly looking at the data and saying, does this make sense?

0:33:00.250 --> 0:33:01.390
<v Speaker 6>Do we think we're going to win? What does a

0:33:01.430 --> 0:33:04.390
<v Speaker 6>macro look like? They just say, hey, why not? How

0:33:04.450 --> 0:33:05.550
<v Speaker 6>else am I going to spend my time?

0:33:06.100 --> 0:33:08.560
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, blah, blah, blah.

0:33:08.630 --> 0:33:11.300
<v Speaker 8>I'm still a Swalwell man, and you can't talk me

0:33:11.360 --> 0:33:14.340
<v Speaker 8>off of that.

0:33:14.540 --> 0:33:16.380
<v Speaker 6>That's a rough one. That's a rough one.

0:33:17.020 --> 0:33:19.260
<v Speaker 3>Hey, I'm afraid we're up against a break.

0:33:19.320 --> 0:33:21.420
<v Speaker 8>Can't wait to talk to you tomorrow as the dust

0:33:21.480 --> 0:33:23.320
<v Speaker 8>settles a little bit and we actually know something.

0:33:23.340 --> 0:33:25.340
<v Speaker 3>Lonnie Chen of the Hoover Institution at Stanford University. Thanks

0:33:25.360 --> 0:33:27.530
<v Speaker 3>for your time. Always, Lonnie. Thanks a bunch.

0:33:28.350 --> 0:33:29.490
<v Speaker 6>Great talking to you. Yep.

0:33:30.370 --> 0:33:33.020
<v Speaker 8>So our friends at Blue Collar Dollar understand you and

0:33:33.040 --> 0:33:36.260
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0:33:36.390 --> 0:33:41.320
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0:33:41.400 --> 0:33:44.940
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0:34:21.260 --> 0:34:23.879
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0:34:32.950 --> 0:34:44.590
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0:34:46.989 --> 0:34:51.500
<v Speaker 7>Wakelock is getting a zero, and Swift in for the touchdown, Chicago.

0:34:51.800 --> 0:34:56.940
<v Speaker 6>Right back to the line, Swift to the edge. Touchdown, Chicago.

0:34:57.460 --> 0:35:01.310
<v Speaker 7>Toss to Swift, up the guts, touchdown, Chicago.

0:35:01.650 --> 0:35:02.330
<v Speaker 3>He's got three.

0:35:03.770 --> 0:35:06.710
<v Speaker 7>So the Bears are for real, if you're wondering who

0:35:06.750 --> 0:35:08.150
<v Speaker 7>the better teams are in the NFL.

0:35:09.410 --> 0:35:11.660
<v Speaker 3>Swift is a good name for a football player. It is.

0:35:13.020 --> 0:35:13.290
<v Speaker 3>It is.

0:35:13.950 --> 0:35:15.870
<v Speaker 7>So we were just talking to Lonnie Chen about how

0:35:15.890 --> 0:35:20.529
<v Speaker 7>the presidential race really kicks off out in the open,

0:35:20.700 --> 0:35:23.300
<v Speaker 7>as he pointed out, starting tonight, tomorrow.

0:35:24.180 --> 0:35:26.799
<v Speaker 3>And they all can admit out loud that they want

0:35:26.820 --> 0:35:29.379
<v Speaker 3>to be president. And that is interesting.

0:35:29.520 --> 0:35:31.799
<v Speaker 7>The people that run that, you're just trying to raise

0:35:31.840 --> 0:35:34.410
<v Speaker 7>your name ID, which there are some reports. I heard

0:35:34.430 --> 0:35:35.770
<v Speaker 7>somebody talking about this the other day. I don't know

0:35:35.790 --> 0:35:37.690
<v Speaker 7>if it's true or not, but that's what Trump was

0:35:37.730 --> 0:35:40.250
<v Speaker 7>really up to in 16. It's just like make himself

0:35:40.310 --> 0:35:44.620
<v Speaker 7>even a bigger star, you know. Not really with any

0:35:44.680 --> 0:35:47.020
<v Speaker 7>political experience have a shot at it, but I don't

0:35:47.040 --> 0:35:47.920
<v Speaker 7>know if that's true or not.

0:35:48.980 --> 0:35:49.200
<v Speaker 2>Yeah.

0:35:49.480 --> 0:35:50.880
<v Speaker 8>Well, and I was thinking as we talked, why the

0:35:50.920 --> 0:35:54.940
<v Speaker 8>hell would Vivek Ramaswamy want to be the governor of Ohio? Oh,

0:35:55.680 --> 0:35:56.779
<v Speaker 8>springboard to the White House.

0:35:57.410 --> 0:35:57.489
<v Speaker 2>Oh.

0:35:58.010 --> 0:36:00.790
<v Speaker 3>Has a couple of good years, revives this, that, or

0:36:00.830 --> 0:36:01.189
<v Speaker 3>the other.

0:36:01.350 --> 0:36:04.880
<v Speaker 7>But to get far enough, that's why I was interested

0:36:04.920 --> 0:36:07.000
<v Speaker 7>in asking the question about the people who decide not to.

0:36:07.020 --> 0:36:09.920
<v Speaker 7>I mean, to get far enough that you've got a

0:36:10.000 --> 0:36:12.420
<v Speaker 7>Lon He Chen that you've made contact with and you

0:36:12.460 --> 0:36:15.240
<v Speaker 7>have in a conference room somewhere, and I assume you

0:36:15.260 --> 0:36:18.950
<v Speaker 7>have some money people behind you and a handful other

0:36:19.310 --> 0:36:24.580
<v Speaker 7>policy whatevers. To get that far and then decide no... Oh,

0:36:24.739 --> 0:36:27.339
<v Speaker 7>that's got to be rough. I just can't even quite

0:36:27.380 --> 0:36:28.020
<v Speaker 7>imagine that.

0:36:28.500 --> 0:36:30.250
<v Speaker 8>You know, I've read enough about the mechanics of it,

0:36:30.280 --> 0:36:32.089
<v Speaker 8>and I know you have, too, that I just think

0:36:32.110 --> 0:36:36.210
<v Speaker 8>you get enough red and yellow lights from the big

0:36:36.250 --> 0:36:41.620
<v Speaker 8>donors and the kingmakers and the important governors that. Wait

0:36:41.660 --> 0:36:43.860
<v Speaker 8>a minute, they really are leaning to the other guy.

0:36:43.920 --> 0:36:46.520
<v Speaker 8>Wait a minute, he is too, and he is too.

0:36:47.280 --> 0:36:48.910
<v Speaker 3>Well, there's also the... It accumulates.

0:36:49.280 --> 0:36:52.830
<v Speaker 7>I know of one example where this happened. Haley Barber,

0:36:52.910 --> 0:36:55.529
<v Speaker 7>where is he? Mississippi, Alabama, one of those states down there.

0:36:55.790 --> 0:36:57.710
<v Speaker 7>He was going to run for president. And one thing

0:36:57.750 --> 0:37:01.110
<v Speaker 7>you do is you hire an oppo research company to

0:37:01.130 --> 0:37:05.180
<v Speaker 7>do oppo research on you. Dig up stuff that you

0:37:05.280 --> 0:37:07.560
<v Speaker 7>probably know, but wonder if other people know. I don't

0:37:07.580 --> 0:37:09.600
<v Speaker 7>even know how that works. Is it stuff you don't know?

0:37:09.700 --> 0:37:09.980
<v Speaker 6>Anyway.

0:37:10.580 --> 0:37:12.480
<v Speaker 7>Whatever came back in the oppo research, he was like,

0:37:12.520 --> 0:37:16.250
<v Speaker 7>I can't run. I can't imagine what that is either.

0:37:16.610 --> 0:37:18.410
<v Speaker 7>They come back with some stuff. Oh, yeah, I forgot

0:37:18.450 --> 0:37:20.589
<v Speaker 7>that night. I have no idea what it is.

0:37:21.410 --> 0:37:24.200
<v Speaker 8>Well, that's why I'm so open about my clown porn addiction.

0:37:24.440 --> 0:37:26.600
<v Speaker 8>I want it just out there so it's old news.

0:37:26.660 --> 0:37:28.460
<v Speaker 8>I'm hanging a lantern on it, as they say.

0:37:29.410 --> 0:37:32.750
<v Speaker 7>Everybody, they're bringing up the same old information that's been

0:37:32.790 --> 0:37:34.110
<v Speaker 7>out there for many years.

0:37:34.690 --> 0:37:39.359
<v Speaker 3>This, again, clown porn, clown porn, clown porn. Let's talk

0:37:39.380 --> 0:37:43.419
<v Speaker 3>about affordability. Exactly.

0:37:44.960 --> 0:37:48.140
<v Speaker 8>Speaking of fiscal matters, and Lon, he agreed there's virtually

0:37:48.180 --> 0:37:52.509
<v Speaker 8>no constituency for fiscal sanity. I'm going to convert you.

0:37:52.870 --> 0:37:54.730
<v Speaker 8>This is going to be Saul on the road to

0:37:54.790 --> 0:37:57.569
<v Speaker 8>Damascus next hour. And it's only going to take like

0:37:57.570 --> 0:37:58.570
<v Speaker 8>90 seconds.

0:37:58.710 --> 0:38:00.980
<v Speaker 7>I almost asked Lon He this question. Oh, I don't

0:38:01.020 --> 0:38:02.299
<v Speaker 7>have time to tell you about it. Whether or not

0:38:02.340 --> 0:38:04.440
<v Speaker 7>Kamala is smart or not. I almost got into that,

0:38:04.480 --> 0:38:05.860
<v Speaker 7>but I didn't want to put him in that position.

0:38:08.170 --> 0:38:09.250
<v Speaker 2>Armstrong and Getty.