WEBVTT - Robert Cahaly On Midterm Polling 0:00:00.030 --> 0:00:05.880 Giving you the day's headlines with the right context. It's 0:00:05.920 --> 0:00:07.200 the John Phillips Show. 0:00:09.200 --> 0:00:12.549 And we continue at 2.05 in the afternoon on the 0:00:12.570 --> 0:00:13.490 John Phillips Show. 0:00:14.030 --> 0:00:16.230 Mr. Randy Wags in Santa Fe, New Mexico. 0:00:16.640 --> 0:00:20.729 Johnny, we're broadcasting live on the radio on 790 KABC 0:00:20.770 --> 0:00:24.110 in Southern California and 810 KSFO in the Bay Area. 0:00:24.410 --> 0:00:28.130 But we're also broadcasting on video with a lively chat 0:00:28.170 --> 0:00:31.310 room every single day by going to our YouTube channel 0:00:31.450 --> 0:00:35.710 at johnnydontlike.com. And Johnny, over the break, we just crossed 0:00:35.770 --> 0:00:42.010 another threshold. We now have over 9,000 subscribers to the channel. 0:00:42.520 --> 0:00:45.659 And we got there because of this audience. Whether you're 0:00:46.020 --> 0:00:48.120 sharing the show with your friends, hanging around in the 0:00:48.180 --> 0:00:51.940 chat room, liking our content, leaving comments on the on-demand videos, 0:00:52.240 --> 0:00:55.960 the channel is growing every single day. And someday that'll 0:00:55.980 --> 0:00:56.680 mean money, right? 0:00:56.700 --> 0:00:59.690 800-222-5222 is the telephone number. 0:00:59.700 --> 0:00:59.780 1-800-222-5222. 0:00:59.800 --> 0:01:02.270 It is our pleasure to welcome our next guest to 0:01:02.300 --> 0:01:02.910 the program. 0:01:02.920 --> 0:01:13.410 He is a pollster. and founder of the Trafalgar Group. 0:01:13.970 --> 0:01:17.840 You can get him online at the TrafalgarGroup.org and follow 0:01:17.880 --> 0:01:19.660 him on X at Robert Cahaley. 0:01:20.040 --> 0:01:21.500 Robert Cahaley, welcome. 0:01:22.340 --> 0:01:23.119 It's good to be here. 0:01:24.120 --> 0:01:26.619 Good to have you. Thanks so much for stopping by. 0:01:28.660 --> 0:01:32.839 Let's start out by talking about this election that happened. 0:01:32.860 --> 0:01:34.650 I figured you were just going to skip right through 0:01:34.670 --> 0:01:37.830 the baseball. 0:01:37.910 --> 0:01:38.330 And you did. 0:01:39.520 --> 0:01:42.200 I'm an Angel fan. It's October. We never talk baseball 0:01:42.240 --> 0:01:42.860 in October. 0:01:44.120 --> 0:01:46.250 Well, I'm not sure how much longer the Dodgers are 0:01:46.270 --> 0:01:47.930 going to be talking baseball in October. 0:01:48.670 --> 0:01:50.410 That is very, very, very true. 0:01:50.430 --> 0:01:52.450 Of course, the Braves haven't been talking for a week, 0:01:52.530 --> 0:01:53.910 so what can I. 0:01:56.200 --> 0:01:56.440 Say? 0:01:56.460 --> 0:02:00.140 So we just had an election in Brazil not long ago. 0:02:00.840 --> 0:02:06.120 where the pre-election polls suggested that the left-wing candidates would 0:02:06.180 --> 0:02:10.760 not only win at the executive level, they would win 0:02:10.900 --> 0:02:15.810 legislatively as well. As it turns out, all of that 0:02:15.870 --> 0:02:20.269 polling data was wrong, where the right-of-center party ended up 0:02:20.470 --> 0:02:24.570 doing better at the executive level than they were supposed to, 0:02:25.169 --> 0:02:29.060 and the same thing happened at the legislative level. In 0:02:29.080 --> 0:02:32.220 the United States, we obviously have an election coming up 0:02:32.440 --> 0:02:34.340 not long ago, and I want to read for you 0:02:34.360 --> 0:02:38.579 a post on X that Frank Luntz put out not 0:02:38.660 --> 0:02:42.260 long ago. Here is what Frank Luntz said. Frequent and 0:02:42.320 --> 0:02:46.940 reliably Democratic voters, meaning voted D in four out of 0:02:46.980 --> 0:02:51.530 four elections, are answering polls much more often than frequent 0:02:51.590 --> 0:02:57.920 Republican voters. Some pollsters have compensated for this since 2016. 0:02:57.919 --> 0:03:03.860 but many still haven't, and that will inevitably skew polling averages. 0:03:04.860 --> 0:03:08.260 You take what we learned in Brazil, you take that tweet, 0:03:08.440 --> 0:03:11.209 and you look at historical data of where the polls 0:03:11.250 --> 0:03:15.290 were in places like, let's say, Ohio, or in Maine 0:03:15.350 --> 0:03:21.090 with Susan Collins, where the Republican traditionally outperforms whatever the 0:03:21.150 --> 0:03:25.679 polling averages happen to be. Does this seem like an 0:03:25.740 --> 0:03:29.720 election where that trend will continue, or do you think 0:03:29.780 --> 0:03:32.260 the polls are right and the Republicans are going to 0:03:32.280 --> 0:03:33.300 get slammed? 0:03:34.380 --> 0:03:36.700 Well, first of all, Frank Lutz has come a long 0:03:36.760 --> 0:03:40.220 way from the tweet, deny the election, make no mistake, 0:03:40.280 --> 0:03:42.810 Hillary Clinton will be the next president of the United States. 0:03:43.220 --> 0:03:46.170 So I'm glad to see he's recognized that polls are 0:03:46.210 --> 0:03:49.630 sometimes flawed. That's a good move on his part to compensate. 0:03:50.330 --> 0:03:52.450 But what I would say is I can't speak for 0:03:52.510 --> 0:03:54.910 all pollsters. What I can speak for is the ones 0:03:54.940 --> 0:03:58.420 that I know that I think are reliable. I looked 0:03:58.460 --> 0:04:04.720 at groups like Insider Advantage, Rasmussen, Qantas Insights. Some of 0:04:04.760 --> 0:04:07.420 these polls, I think, are a lot more likely to 0:04:07.460 --> 0:04:10.880 be right and consistently have been more likely to be right. 0:04:10.880 --> 0:04:15.780 2024 is just another example of that. But what I 0:04:15.840 --> 0:04:18.599 would say is it does affect what. 0:04:18.480 --> 0:04:21.020 The turnout is. And we're seeing a new trend that 0:04:21.060 --> 0:04:22.060 I think is positive. 0:04:22.460 --> 0:04:26.359 That might speak to how the polls could be unrepresentative 0:04:26.520 --> 0:04:31.040 of a growing Republican potential here, is seniors have come 0:04:31.080 --> 0:04:34.280 a little bit back to the Republican side, a lot 0:04:34.339 --> 0:04:36.980 more than we even saw in the presidential election in 2024. 0:04:36.960 --> 0:04:40.020 A lot of seniors. 0:04:40.540 --> 0:04:43.240 That kind of leaned Republican had some problems with Trump, 0:04:43.520 --> 0:04:46.760 but Trump compensated with so many other voters. But what 0:04:46.810 --> 0:04:50.510 we're seeing now is that these seniors are very afraid 0:04:50.529 --> 0:04:56.490 of this whole socialism talk, the generation that remembers who 0:04:57.089 --> 0:05:01.770 Gary Gagarin is and why he's famous understands what the 0:05:01.830 --> 0:05:05.420 threat of socialism is. And the thing that we have 0:05:05.820 --> 0:05:11.420 to look at is young people are not as engaged 0:05:11.460 --> 0:05:12.260 in this election as. 0:05:12.220 --> 0:05:13.320 People thought they would be. 0:05:13.800 --> 0:05:16.740 So if those seniors who, let me add one more point, 0:05:17.240 --> 0:05:21.010 are less influenced by gas prices because A lot of 0:05:21.029 --> 0:05:23.750 them drive a lot less, and a lot of them 0:05:23.910 --> 0:05:27.680 are a lot more stable in their income. They're less 0:05:27.740 --> 0:05:30.020 likely to be influenced by the one thing that is 0:05:30.060 --> 0:05:33.260 influencing people. If those seniors turn out at the numbers 0:05:33.300 --> 0:05:37.479 we think they could, when we take on turnout models 0:05:37.930 --> 0:05:41.050 and we give them the strength that they could potentially have, yes, 0:05:41.410 --> 0:05:43.950 every one of these polls, even some from our groups, 0:05:43.990 --> 0:05:46.360 could be one or two points lower than what the 0:05:46.400 --> 0:05:49.099 Republicans are going to be. We're going to monitor turnout 0:05:49.520 --> 0:05:52.760 and the early voting. And if we need to adjust 0:05:52.800 --> 0:05:54.900 those models and turnout, we're going to do so. 0:05:56.540 --> 0:05:58.750 I'll tell you something else that I think is at play. 0:05:58.870 --> 0:06:02.890 We long know that Republicans have been skeptical of the 0:06:02.930 --> 0:06:07.750 mainstream media because of the liberal bias. However, I think 0:06:07.830 --> 0:06:12.330 something is different now than maybe how it used to 0:06:12.370 --> 0:06:16.460 be 10 years ago, 15, 20 years ago. And that is, 0:06:17.279 --> 0:06:20.600 take the jury in Massachusetts at the Lindsay Clancy trial, 0:06:21.300 --> 0:06:24.120 where you have a juror who's supposed to be granted anonymity, 0:06:24.839 --> 0:06:29.010 who not only was outed by the mainstream media, but 0:06:29.270 --> 0:06:32.230 his life was effectively ruined. The guy felt in fear 0:06:32.270 --> 0:06:34.810 for his safety. He had to go to a hiding place, 0:06:35.390 --> 0:06:37.880 all because he looked at the evidence and voted the 0:06:37.940 --> 0:06:40.520 way that he thought he should vote based on what 0:06:40.560 --> 0:06:44.770 was presented in front of him. If a Republican, particularly 0:06:44.830 --> 0:06:49.250 Republicans in blue states or blue cities, they get a 0:06:49.310 --> 0:06:50.850 call from the New York Times. 0:06:50.970 --> 0:06:52.250 Hi, I'm from CNN. 0:06:52.750 --> 0:06:56.029 Tell me all kinds of biographical data about yourself and 0:06:56.070 --> 0:06:58.560 tell me who you're voting for up and down the ballot. 0:06:59.420 --> 0:07:01.700 They don't trust them. They don't trust them. 0:07:01.740 --> 0:07:05.020 They don't think that they're going to use that information, 0:07:05.060 --> 0:07:08.120 keep it private, keep it confidential. They know that there 0:07:08.160 --> 0:07:11.720 are social repercussions if you answer those questions the wrong way. 0:07:12.420 --> 0:07:14.440 And if you tell them who you are and you 0:07:14.460 --> 0:07:18.460 give them your age and your gender and your educational 0:07:18.500 --> 0:07:22.140 background and your occupation and all kinds of things, it 0:07:22.160 --> 0:07:24.940 could ruin your life. And I think Republicans just don't 0:07:24.960 --> 0:07:27.440 want the trouble. And I don't know how you fix that. 0:07:28.200 --> 0:07:30.440 Well, you're speaking my language. I've been talking about this 0:07:30.840 --> 0:07:31.090 since 2016. 0:07:31.080 --> 0:07:36.360 We know what's referred to as the social desirability bias. 0:07:36.800 --> 0:07:39.220 And that's when people are hesitant to give an answer 0:07:39.580 --> 0:07:42.480 because they don't want to be judged. by the person 0:07:42.940 --> 0:07:46.580 asking the question. Now, the way that is manifested to 0:07:46.640 --> 0:07:49.600 modern polling, even more so than 2016, and polling has 0:07:49.620 --> 0:07:52.220 changed a lot even since then, is a lot more 0:07:52.240 --> 0:07:56.610 of this is done via the internet, with text, with emails. 0:07:57.150 --> 0:08:01.050 But still, it's that anonymity that they're concerned about. And 0:08:01.150 --> 0:08:03.170 it's one of the reasons we have on our website, 0:08:04.050 --> 0:08:05.650 we make it very clear that the first thing we 0:08:05.690 --> 0:08:08.950 do is we guarantee people's privacy. We delete people's names 0:08:08.990 --> 0:08:11.130 from the database before we even begin the survey. 0:08:11.860 --> 0:08:14.120 But yes, absolutely, people are hesitant. 0:08:14.440 --> 0:08:16.920 Now, one of the ways we got around that in 0:08:16.920 --> 0:08:19.600 2016 is we asked what we call the neighbor question. 0:08:20.100 --> 0:08:22.780 And you say, this is how somebody responds to who 0:08:22.800 --> 0:08:25.700 they are for president. And then the next question is, well, 0:08:25.850 --> 0:08:27.950 who do you think most of your neighbors are voting for? 0:08:28.430 --> 0:08:30.790 And that's when you find out a little bit more 0:08:30.830 --> 0:08:34.670 about where their head is correctly. And so that's one 0:08:34.690 --> 0:08:37.910 of the things that helped us put together a model. 0:08:38.250 --> 0:08:40.290 that predicted that Trump would win. And that's kind of 0:08:40.330 --> 0:08:43.270 what brought our firm to notoriety in 2016 is when 0:08:43.290 --> 0:08:47.050 we did very much do that, even predicting the correct 0:08:47.250 --> 0:08:52.870 electoral college turnout. So it is a real concern. And 0:08:52.890 --> 0:08:54.449 that's one of the number one questions we get. 0:08:54.690 --> 0:08:56.390 Who are you? Why are you asking this question? 0:08:56.809 --> 0:09:02.950 There's absolute concern about what surveys are, what you're going 0:09:02.970 --> 0:09:05.650 to do with them, and all this data that's being sought. 0:09:06.150 --> 0:09:09.230 But let's not also remember One of the other problems 0:09:09.250 --> 0:09:12.729 the mainstream, quote unquote, I call them the dinosaur pollsters have, 0:09:13.270 --> 0:09:17.449 is they are asking crazy long questions, crazy long questionnaires. 0:09:18.050 --> 0:09:20.449 And so when you look at it, how many people 0:09:20.530 --> 0:09:23.070 do you know on a Tuesday night who are going 0:09:23.090 --> 0:09:26.949 to answer 30 questions? Almost nobody. So who are they 0:09:27.010 --> 0:09:30.130 talking to? What they end up talking to is people 0:09:30.170 --> 0:09:33.010 who have very strong opinions. And what we already know 0:09:33.030 --> 0:09:36.250 is on the right, the people's strong opinions are already 0:09:36.740 --> 0:09:40.140 are very suspect of the people asking the questions. So yes, 0:09:40.220 --> 0:09:42.630 it's a concern. Yes, we have ways to mitigate it. 0:09:43.110 --> 0:09:45.030 We wouldn't have gotten with the intents of the point 0:09:45.470 --> 0:09:47.970 of Georgia and North Carolina and Michigan and the presidential 0:09:48.010 --> 0:09:48.949 election if we didn't. 0:09:49.750 --> 0:09:51.809 And it is something that we're dealing with. Now, am 0:09:51.870 --> 0:09:52.980 I going to explain to you how we do it? 0:09:53.370 --> 0:09:53.929 No, I'm not. 0:09:55.490 --> 0:09:57.390 A friend of mine called me this morning and asked 0:09:57.410 --> 0:09:59.329 me what I think is going to happen nationally in 0:09:59.390 --> 0:10:03.300 this election. And what I think is that the Democrats 0:10:03.320 --> 0:10:05.420 are going to win, but I don't think it's going 0:10:05.440 --> 0:10:08.429 to be 2006. I don't think it's going to be 0:10:08.470 --> 0:10:11.010 a big blue wave like I think many of them 0:10:11.050 --> 0:10:15.350 are hoping for. And I came across this quote from Politico. 0:10:16.290 --> 0:10:20.350 This is a Democratic member of Congress in a close race. 0:10:20.410 --> 0:10:23.510 Here is what he told Politico about where he sees 0:10:23.570 --> 0:10:28.600 this election going. Quote, it's starting to feel overhyped. Dems 0:10:28.620 --> 0:10:29.900 are going to win 20 seats? 0:10:30.320 --> 0:10:30.860 I don't know. 0:10:31.340 --> 0:10:34.400 It doesn't feel like that to me, end quote. Where 0:10:34.420 --> 0:10:35.819 do you think this election is going? 0:10:37.140 --> 0:10:39.959 I would tell you if this election were held in September, 0:10:40.620 --> 0:10:43.069 it would have been a bloodbath for the Republicans. But 0:10:43.120 --> 0:10:46.429 things are moving. Things are changing. There's a lot of 0:10:46.450 --> 0:10:50.329 people learning a lot more about the Democrats. One of 0:10:50.350 --> 0:10:53.150 the things Republicans do wrong, and I've been talking about 0:10:53.190 --> 0:10:56.790 this for years, is they let unknown Democrats spend all 0:10:56.850 --> 0:11:01.990 this time through the summer building name ID without going 0:11:02.090 --> 0:11:04.770 after them, even though they've got oppo books that are 0:11:04.790 --> 0:11:07.609 full of information. It is a lot easier to take 0:11:07.650 --> 0:11:11.350 somebody down. It is like you take them down before 0:11:11.370 --> 0:11:13.449 you let them build themselves up. And so I do 0:11:13.490 --> 0:11:16.200 fault the Republicans for not letting loose of the strings 0:11:16.320 --> 0:11:18.360 a little earlier and preventing some of. 0:11:18.360 --> 0:11:19.819 These Democrats from building. 0:11:21.100 --> 0:11:25.780 Positive name ID when it could have kept the. 0:11:25.320 --> 0:11:28.179 Negative information out there and lowered it. 0:11:28.860 --> 0:11:32.610 But what is concerning now is that I think that 0:11:32.970 --> 0:11:35.829 the Republicans are spending the money and we're seeing the movement. 0:11:36.130 --> 0:11:39.450 And I'm very concerned as to whether we get to 0:11:39.490 --> 0:11:43.070 a point where it is going to hit at the 0:11:43.130 --> 0:11:45.910 right moment. Elections are like waves, and you've got to 0:11:45.970 --> 0:11:47.650 hit them at the right point, and they go up 0:11:47.710 --> 0:11:48.090 and down. 0:11:48.470 --> 0:11:51.510 I feel better about the Republicans' chances in the next week. 0:11:52.150 --> 0:11:53.190 I don't know what it's going to look like in 0:11:53.210 --> 0:11:55.890 two weeks, but the wave is definitely moving the right 0:11:55.929 --> 0:11:57.090 direction for the Republicans. 0:11:57.450 --> 0:12:01.580 The question is, does it crest and start again? That 0:12:01.640 --> 0:12:02.220 time will tell. 0:12:03.460 --> 0:12:07.220 Texas is one of the Senate seats that most people 0:12:07.460 --> 0:12:10.740 who are following this election closely, are keeping a very, very, 0:12:10.800 --> 0:12:15.280 very close eye on. You have the Democratic candidate ahead 0:12:15.440 --> 0:12:15.940 in that. 0:12:15.860 --> 0:12:18.140 Race, but within the margin of error. 0:12:18.900 --> 0:12:21.270 Elon Musk has come out and said that he will 0:12:21.330 --> 0:12:26.530 spend whatever it takes, up to including $ 300 million, to 0:12:26.590 --> 0:12:29.790 save that seat for the Republicans, because the Republicans think 0:12:30.210 --> 0:12:33.400 if they keep Texas, they keep control of the United 0:12:33.460 --> 0:12:36.380 States Senate. Where do you see that election going? 0:12:37.230 --> 0:12:39.990 Well, I will tell you, our poll finished right as 0:12:40.090 --> 0:12:46.440 this whole incident with him going out of town and 0:12:46.460 --> 0:12:49.400 where he was and the possibility that he was lying 0:12:49.440 --> 0:12:51.700 about where he was and seeking some kind of mental help. 0:12:52.440 --> 0:12:55.480 And so that scandal was kind of breaking as we 0:12:55.520 --> 0:12:58.780 finished our field work. So I actually think Texas probably 0:12:58.820 --> 0:13:02.280 looks better today than our poll demonstrates it looks. And 0:13:02.300 --> 0:13:04.430 we will, of course, go back into the field in Texas. 0:13:07.380 --> 0:13:09.219 It means a lot when somebody like Elon Musk says 0:13:09.260 --> 0:13:11.400 whatever it takes. It means less when he puts a 0:13:11.420 --> 0:13:14.680 cap on it at $ 300 million. So we'll see what happens. 0:13:14.740 --> 0:13:17.280 And it also depends on how well he spends the money. 0:13:17.730 --> 0:13:22.729 Because pouring it into the same systems that consistently make 0:13:22.770 --> 0:13:27.810 consultants rich and end up resulting in the same result 0:13:27.830 --> 0:13:29.880 that would have happened if the money hadn't been spent 0:13:30.380 --> 0:13:33.120 is the right answer. Pouring it into things that work 0:13:33.260 --> 0:13:36.300 is what matters. And I sincerely hope, I mean, you know, 0:13:36.440 --> 0:13:38.979 I think he's one of the most amazing people ever. 0:13:39.080 --> 0:13:40.720 And I really hope he pours it into the right 0:13:40.760 --> 0:13:43.420 places that can make the difference that needs to be made. 0:13:43.780 --> 0:13:45.840 And just, you know, not buying a few more yachts 0:13:45.880 --> 0:13:46.900 for a few more consultants. 0:13:48.280 --> 0:13:52.210 What Senate seat are the Republicans competitive in that they 0:13:52.250 --> 0:13:54.770 should have no business being competitive in in a year 0:13:54.809 --> 0:13:55.250 like this? 0:13:55.990 --> 0:13:56.550 Minnesota. 0:13:57.510 --> 0:14:01.290 Tafoya is a different kind of candidate. And there's been 0:14:01.330 --> 0:14:06.020 some specific, you know, scandals, obviously, with Somalians. And all 0:14:06.040 --> 0:14:08.380 the fraud and everything else that's been going on there, 0:14:08.760 --> 0:14:12.080 it has turned into the governor being very unpopular now. 0:14:12.720 --> 0:14:16.740 And she has a different draw sheet. And it's just 0:14:17.080 --> 0:14:21.640 the timing is right for that one to maybe do 0:14:21.700 --> 0:14:23.760 something a little different. And I can see a lot 0:14:23.800 --> 0:14:28.370 of ticket splitters who end up voting Democrat for governor 0:14:28.870 --> 0:14:30.210 and voting for DeFoya for Senate. 0:14:30.250 --> 0:14:32.250 So that's one that I think is a sleeper. 0:14:32.710 --> 0:14:34.250 Another one that could be a sleeper, and we don't 0:14:34.290 --> 0:14:36.650 see it yet, but my gut tells me it could be, 0:14:36.910 --> 0:14:41.120 is New Hampshire. Now, we still have Sununu down, but 0:14:41.160 --> 0:14:44.800 we also have Ayotte up. And it doesn't make any 0:14:44.880 --> 0:14:47.580 sense that Ayotte can be up and Sununu can be 0:14:47.600 --> 0:14:53.280 down by that much, especially with Sununu's being so vividly anti-Trump. 0:14:53.860 --> 0:14:56.480 And the fact is, New Hampshire is not so pro-Trump. 0:14:56.500 --> 0:14:59.130 I think that in the end, a lot of New 0:14:59.170 --> 0:15:02.010 Hampshire's will end up going with the name they trust, Sununu. 0:15:02.340 --> 0:15:04.100 And I think that one may surprise people too. 0:15:05.500 --> 0:15:10.610 Besides Texas, which Senate seat that the Republicans currently have 0:15:10.710 --> 0:15:13.630 right now should give them heartburn at night worrying over? 0:15:14.690 --> 0:15:16.910 They shouldn't have heartburn about North Carolina because I don't 0:15:16.950 --> 0:15:19.000 think they can win, to be honest. 0:15:19.130 --> 0:15:22.440 I think that one's gone. I think they should have 0:15:22.460 --> 0:15:23.960 a lot of heartburn about Ohio. 0:15:25.560 --> 0:15:29.980 Sherry Brown is coming back and really making this thing 0:15:30.010 --> 0:15:32.280 very competitive. I think they should have a lot of 0:15:32.320 --> 0:15:35.600 heartburn about Alaska. I mean, the fact is, in Alaska, 0:15:36.060 --> 0:15:41.380 when you had the race the last time, you had 0:15:41.600 --> 0:15:45.360 Rakowski in a race that she really could have lost 0:15:46.200 --> 0:15:49.760 had all the Senate money not poured to benefit her, 0:15:50.280 --> 0:15:55.950 even though Chewbacca was a more conservative person. Were it 0:15:56.000 --> 0:15:58.960 not for Mitch McConnell's intervention in that race, it could 0:15:58.980 --> 0:16:02.460 have gone the right way. But Alaska worries me, especially 0:16:02.480 --> 0:16:04.920 with the ranked choice and what's going on there. I 0:16:04.940 --> 0:16:07.660 think if I were Republicans, I'd be most worried about 0:16:07.680 --> 0:16:11.490 those three. And pay attention to Kansas and South Carolina. 0:16:11.910 --> 0:16:14.330 South Carolina, I think maybe trended in the right direction, 0:16:14.770 --> 0:16:17.050 but they did the same mistake I keep talking about. 0:16:17.470 --> 0:16:18.229 They let Dr. 0:16:18.330 --> 0:16:20.970 Andrews, and believe you me, I mean, I'm in South 0:16:21.010 --> 0:16:23.930 Carolina at this moment. I watch TV. I know how 0:16:23.950 --> 0:16:26.410 many ads I see during college football games. And you 0:16:26.450 --> 0:16:30.420 can't be outnumbered with positive ads 10 to 1 and win. 0:16:31.340 --> 0:16:35.840 It took them too long to get the money to 0:16:35.880 --> 0:16:40.790 South Carolina to start combating Dr. Andrews in this race. 0:16:41.330 --> 0:16:45.330 I think Graham can win, but it didn't have to 0:16:45.370 --> 0:16:47.550 be this much of a contest. But that's what happens 0:16:47.570 --> 0:16:50.610 when you let somebody identify themselves and you don't identify 0:16:50.650 --> 0:16:51.050 them first. 0:16:52.150 --> 0:16:55.130 Michigan is a state where the Democrats have the Senate 0:16:55.170 --> 0:16:57.130 seat that's up for grabs this time around. 0:16:57.640 --> 0:16:59.220 The incumbent is retiring. 0:17:00.080 --> 0:17:06.410 It is Abdul Al-Sayed, who's the Democratic nominee in that race. 0:17:07.090 --> 0:17:10.090 He has previously stated that he and his family have 0:17:10.150 --> 0:17:13.350 no connections at all to the Muslim Brotherhood. It was 0:17:13.390 --> 0:17:17.470 just reported yesterday by Fox News. Oh yeah, they have 0:17:17.530 --> 0:17:20.990 connections all over the place. In a state with a 0:17:21.150 --> 0:17:26.090 sizable Jewish population and a lot of Jewish Democrats who 0:17:26.150 --> 0:17:30.130 are not prepared to vote for the Democratic nominee. How 0:17:30.230 --> 0:17:32.490 damaging is that story to his prospects? 0:17:33.510 --> 0:17:34.190 It's damaging. 0:17:34.450 --> 0:17:37.230 What he said about Michigan football might be more damaging. 0:17:39.090 --> 0:17:41.070 The next thing this guy's going to do is execute 0:17:41.090 --> 0:17:43.710 a puppy on TV. I can't figure out what you 0:17:43.730 --> 0:17:47.040 would want to do more than what he's done to 0:17:47.220 --> 0:17:50.680 ostracize the voters in Michigan. It's almost like he's daring 0:17:50.720 --> 0:17:52.800 them to vote against him. And I got a feeling 0:17:52.820 --> 0:17:53.560 they're going to take him. 0:17:53.520 --> 0:17:54.020 Up on his dare. 0:17:55.930 --> 0:17:58.070 Last question before you go. In the L.A. 0:17:58.090 --> 0:18:04.169 Mayor's race, we have seen that socialism really sells more 0:18:04.330 --> 0:18:08.280 the younger you are, where Karen Bass is dominating among 0:18:08.440 --> 0:18:12.980 older voters and Nithya Raman, the socialist councilwoman, is doing 0:18:13.080 --> 0:18:15.760 really well with younger voters. The younger you are, the 0:18:15.800 --> 0:18:18.810 more likely you are to support her. Is that something 0:18:18.850 --> 0:18:22.210 that's just happening here in California, or is that a 0:18:22.250 --> 0:18:23.750 trend you're seeing nationwide? 0:18:24.630 --> 0:18:24.810 Nope. 0:18:25.150 --> 0:18:28.810 Like I said, these young people hear socialism and they 0:18:28.869 --> 0:18:33.090 don't see the manifestation of socialism. They don't understand what 0:18:33.130 --> 0:18:36.970 happened in Korea. They don't remember East and West Germany. Again, 0:18:37.010 --> 0:18:39.540 they don't remember who Yuri Gagarin was and what it 0:18:39.580 --> 0:18:43.980 felt like to fear a socialist country and what they 0:18:44.020 --> 0:18:45.100 might do to America. 0:18:45.140 --> 0:18:46.639 They don't remember what happened to Cuba. 0:18:47.140 --> 0:18:49.540 And so these young people don't have any real world 0:18:49.619 --> 0:18:55.040 experience in what socialism means. And so they idealize it 0:18:55.619 --> 0:18:58.720 in a way that has never, ever happened in the 0:18:58.760 --> 0:19:02.820 history of the world. So they're not in touch with reality. 0:19:04.440 --> 0:19:07.919 Robert Cahaley, pollster and founder of the Trafalgar Group, one 0:19:07.940 --> 0:19:10.530 of the best in the business. You can follow him 0:19:10.710 --> 0:19:14.230 on X at Robert Cahaley. Robert Cahaley, thanks so much 0:19:14.270 --> 0:19:14.770 for being here. 0:19:15.350 --> 0:19:18.090 Thank you for being here as well. Thank you for 0:19:18.150 --> 0:19:18.510 having me. 0:19:18.530 --> 0:19:20.010 Well, I'm here every day from noon to three. 0:19:20.030 --> 0:19:20.520 Of course you are. 0:19:20.530 --> 0:19:24.990 I have to be. Robert Cahaley, everyone. 0:19:25.030 --> 0:19:25.370 Yes, sir. 0:19:26.670 --> 0:19:28.770 If you want to watch us perform the show live, 0:19:28.810 --> 0:19:31.820 go to johnnydontlike.com and click that like button. 0:19:32.320 --> 0:19:34.580 And Randy, I think we're just under 500 likes. 0:19:35.040 --> 0:19:38.700 Oh, let's see what we're at. We are so appreciative 0:19:38.720 --> 0:19:41.640 of everyone that stops by, hangs out in the chat room. 0:19:41.760 --> 0:19:43.590 Even if you can only hang out for a little bit, 0:19:43.690 --> 0:19:49.260 it makes a difference. We are at 474 yeah 474 0:19:49.260 --> 0:19:52.400 likes on today's show we are almost at 500 so 0:19:52.780 --> 0:19:55.000 if you haven't checked us out today if you're just 0:19:55.040 --> 0:19:58.400 listening on the radio or that silly iHeart app check 0:19:58.460 --> 0:20:02.550 us out at johnnydontlike.com on your phone or on your 0:20:02.609 --> 0:20:05.030 browser or if you have the YouTube app that's easy too. 0:20:06.050 --> 0:20:08.149 If you'd like to email the show, you can do 0:20:08.210 --> 0:20:15.720 so at johnnydontlikeshow at gmail.com. That's johnnydontlikeshow at gmail.com. And 0:20:15.760 --> 0:20:18.040 if you want to watch us perform the show live, 0:20:18.359 --> 0:20:21.720 participate in the very lively chat and click that like 0:20:21.770 --> 0:20:24.580 button to get us north of 500. Randy, that's easy 0:20:24.600 --> 0:20:26.420 to do at johnnydontlike.com. 0:20:26.619 --> 0:20:29.440 It's a party every single day from noon to 3, 0:20:29.440 --> 0:20:32.340 so hang out with us. Hang out with the hilarious 0:20:32.380 --> 0:20:35.179 people in the chat room as they mostly spend the 0:20:35.240 --> 0:20:40.220 entire three hours making fun of Bob Bonta at johnnydontlike.com. 0:20:41.710 --> 0:20:44.410 And if you want additional content after we sign off 0:20:44.470 --> 0:20:48.080 at 3... You can always listen to the accountability podcast. 0:20:48.280 --> 0:20:51.920 Go find out why a hundred thousand people have watched 0:20:52.200 --> 0:20:57.500 our election special on the 14 statewide ballot propositions with 0:20:57.560 --> 0:21:02.770 John Fleischman of so doesn't matter.com part two premieres tomorrow, 0:21:02.810 --> 0:21:04.929 where we go through some of the straight, we go 0:21:04.970 --> 0:21:08.310 through some of the statewide races and we go through 0:21:08.470 --> 0:21:12.270 the Bay area transit tax and a whole bunch else. 0:21:12.619 --> 0:21:17.619 So the Voter Guide Part 2 premieres tomorrow at 2.59 p.m. 0:21:19.380 --> 0:21:22.139 And on Election Day, we're going to be doing double duty. 0:21:22.680 --> 0:21:24.600 We're going to be doing the regular show from noon 0:21:24.640 --> 0:21:27.070 to 3, but on Tuesday, November 3rd, we're coming back 0:21:27.130 --> 0:21:31.530 at 7 p.m. live and statewide and online. We're going 0:21:31.550 --> 0:21:34.889 to be on KABC, KSFO, and KMJ from 7 to 0:21:34.890 --> 0:21:38.250 9 p.m. with election results. And we'll be on YouTube 0:21:38.270 --> 0:21:42.690 from 7 till at least 10 p.m. with election results. California, 0:21:42.750 --> 0:21:46.869 Los Angeles, the Bay Area, possibly some of the nationwide 0:21:46.930 --> 0:21:52.040 races as well. So watch us count the votes Tuesday, 0:21:52.119 --> 0:21:55.780 November 3rd at 7 p.m. at johnnydontlike.com. 0:21:57.210 --> 0:21:59.650 And later this month, we're going to be in San Francisco. 0:22:00.050 --> 0:22:03.490