1 00:00:00,320 --> 00:00:03,400 Speaker 1: Michael, you missed the best part. I always raised my 2 00:00:03,520 --> 00:00:06,160 Speaker 1: kids when I said no and they asked why, I 3 00:00:06,320 --> 00:00:09,719 Speaker 1: just simply said, my statement does not require a question. 4 00:00:09,960 --> 00:00:19,159 Speaker 2: Woo tough, mama bear, or just look at them and 5 00:00:19,200 --> 00:00:30,320 Speaker 2: go huh, don't ask. There is no one I said so. 6 00:00:30,320 --> 00:00:33,880 Speaker 2: So late in this month, as we kind of getting 7 00:00:33,880 --> 00:00:38,320 Speaker 2: near the end of the year, the year you know 8 00:00:38,360 --> 00:00:41,440 Speaker 2: on the economy, we got the Federal Reserve getting ready 9 00:00:41,479 --> 00:00:44,000 Speaker 2: to meet they think they're going to cut rates, probably 10 00:00:44,040 --> 00:00:45,479 Speaker 2: for the last time for a while. 11 00:00:46,159 --> 00:00:46,879 Speaker 1: Here's where we are. 12 00:00:48,520 --> 00:00:54,200 Speaker 2: Job growth has stalled, consumers I think are stretched, corporate 13 00:00:54,280 --> 00:00:57,840 Speaker 2: credit is actually beginning to crack a little bit, and 14 00:00:58,040 --> 00:01:02,160 Speaker 2: both production and housing are completely out of sync with 15 00:01:02,240 --> 00:01:06,399 Speaker 2: real demand. So the contrast that I would draw between 16 00:01:06,440 --> 00:01:12,640 Speaker 2: a quiet target and a packed Walmart on this last 17 00:01:12,760 --> 00:01:16,679 Speaker 2: Black Friday that we had is a way of showing 18 00:01:16,720 --> 00:01:22,319 Speaker 2: a two track economy that policymakers and markets refused to acknowledge. 19 00:01:23,280 --> 00:01:25,520 Speaker 2: I read a story A guy had written a story 20 00:01:25,520 --> 00:01:30,920 Speaker 2: about how in Dallas he had gone to a target 21 00:01:31,800 --> 00:01:35,440 Speaker 2: and the target was, you know, had the music playing, 22 00:01:36,000 --> 00:01:38,280 Speaker 2: and you know, all the carts were there, and they 23 00:01:38,280 --> 00:01:40,680 Speaker 2: were all lined up, and all the red baskets and everything, 24 00:01:40,760 --> 00:01:45,040 Speaker 2: and the aisles were just pretty much empty. And he 25 00:01:45,080 --> 00:01:48,000 Speaker 2: goes to a Walmart not far away, just a few 26 00:01:48,040 --> 00:01:54,040 Speaker 2: blocks away, and it was packed. When I walk you 27 00:01:54,200 --> 00:01:59,240 Speaker 2: through that underwhelming Black Friday at Target versus the mob 28 00:01:59,360 --> 00:02:02,480 Speaker 2: Walmart just few miles away, what I'm really trying to 29 00:02:02,480 --> 00:02:04,800 Speaker 2: do is to illustrate that the economy is splitting into 30 00:02:04,880 --> 00:02:09,800 Speaker 2: in real time because households that used to shop a 31 00:02:09,919 --> 00:02:15,480 Speaker 2: mid tier retailer like Target are actually those same consumers 32 00:02:15,520 --> 00:02:18,840 Speaker 2: are now behaving more like the stressed, lower income cohort. 33 00:02:19,320 --> 00:02:23,240 Speaker 2: They're trading down, they're buying fewer items, and they're beginning 34 00:02:23,240 --> 00:02:27,000 Speaker 2: to prioritize the basics while the discount chains capture the 35 00:02:27,040 --> 00:02:30,400 Speaker 2: bulk of what is left or their spending. I told 36 00:02:30,400 --> 00:02:35,720 Speaker 2: you that on their earnings report McDonald's reported. Now I 37 00:02:35,720 --> 00:02:37,800 Speaker 2: don't own stock and McDonald's. I just happened to hear 38 00:02:37,840 --> 00:02:40,800 Speaker 2: it on them Fox Business, but they were talking about 39 00:02:40,800 --> 00:02:45,359 Speaker 2: how they were losing some of their lower income customers 40 00:02:45,560 --> 00:02:48,680 Speaker 2: and they were gaining higher income customers. That tells you 41 00:02:48,720 --> 00:02:51,760 Speaker 2: exactly the same point that the person in this story 42 00:02:51,880 --> 00:02:55,240 Speaker 2: was trying to make about the difference between the Target 43 00:02:55,240 --> 00:03:00,600 Speaker 2: and the Walmart So for me, those quote here two 44 00:03:00,639 --> 00:03:04,760 Speaker 2: economies image kind of shows how the official narratives can 45 00:03:04,800 --> 00:03:08,200 Speaker 2: miss what parking lots and checkout lines are actually showing us. 46 00:03:09,720 --> 00:03:10,080 Speaker 1: Walls. 47 00:03:10,160 --> 00:03:13,079 Speaker 2: Look, I look at my broke, looked at my broke? 48 00:03:13,080 --> 00:03:17,880 Speaker 2: Would you count last night? Wall Street? And corporate earnings 49 00:03:18,760 --> 00:03:25,000 Speaker 2: can truly look fantastic even as everyday purchasing behavior is 50 00:03:25,080 --> 00:03:28,119 Speaker 2: showing a growing financial strain. 51 00:03:30,720 --> 00:03:31,639 Speaker 1: The labor market. 52 00:03:31,639 --> 00:03:34,960 Speaker 2: I would describe the labor labor market as having shifted 53 00:03:35,000 --> 00:03:40,440 Speaker 2: from no hiring, no firing, to no hiring in some firing, 54 00:03:41,960 --> 00:03:44,120 Speaker 2: because if you dig deep, you can see evidence that 55 00:03:44,440 --> 00:03:48,440 Speaker 2: net hiring has stalled and layoffs are becoming more common. 56 00:03:49,000 --> 00:03:54,240 Speaker 2: And when regional manufacturing surveys report literally zero net employment growth, 57 00:03:54,360 --> 00:03:57,560 Speaker 2: I mean literally net zero net employment growth, and a 58 00:03:57,640 --> 00:04:00,680 Speaker 2: lot of firms talk about layoffs more than these, more 59 00:04:00,720 --> 00:04:03,840 Speaker 2: than they do new jobs. I interpret that as a 60 00:04:03,880 --> 00:04:06,440 Speaker 2: sign that we're closer to a two thousand and nine 61 00:04:06,480 --> 00:04:09,360 Speaker 2: style environment than we are some sort of soft landing. 62 00:04:09,760 --> 00:04:13,000 Speaker 2: But at the same time, I still pay attention to 63 00:04:13,440 --> 00:04:16,719 Speaker 2: consumer sentiment. You know, when surveys show that a large 64 00:04:16,760 --> 00:04:22,039 Speaker 2: majority of Americans are expecting unemployment to rise, with readings 65 00:04:22,160 --> 00:04:26,279 Speaker 2: rivaling the early vocal recession. I can only conclude that 66 00:04:26,279 --> 00:04:31,240 Speaker 2: people feel a weakening job market long before it really 67 00:04:31,240 --> 00:04:34,600 Speaker 2: shows up in the headline on unemployment rate. So what 68 00:04:34,640 --> 00:04:38,760 Speaker 2: do I think is happening to consumers? In my view 69 00:04:38,920 --> 00:04:42,080 Speaker 2: and in my experience, Now, I'm gonna retail sales have 70 00:04:42,160 --> 00:04:47,800 Speaker 2: become a mirage, and that's because inflation and shrinkflation hide 71 00:04:47,839 --> 00:04:51,320 Speaker 2: the reality that people are paying more and they're walking 72 00:04:51,320 --> 00:04:54,680 Speaker 2: out of the stores less. Now I know that the 73 00:04:54,760 --> 00:04:57,919 Speaker 2: numbers from Black Friday look decent in terms of the 74 00:04:57,960 --> 00:05:02,359 Speaker 2: dollar amount. If you took that dollar amount and you 75 00:05:02,400 --> 00:05:06,200 Speaker 2: strip out the price increases and you'll see that volumes 76 00:05:06,200 --> 00:05:10,839 Speaker 2: and units per transaction are actually down, then that becomes 77 00:05:10,839 --> 00:05:14,839 Speaker 2: obviously to me that households are running out of runway, 78 00:05:15,480 --> 00:05:17,400 Speaker 2: and that's why you're starting to see the shift. Like 79 00:05:17,480 --> 00:05:24,279 Speaker 2: McDonald's is reporting. You can focus on private credit, or 80 00:05:24,360 --> 00:05:28,320 Speaker 2: say the shadow banking system, because they can be seen 81 00:05:28,400 --> 00:05:31,440 Speaker 2: as the leverage that made the apparent boom look bigger 82 00:05:31,480 --> 00:05:35,400 Speaker 2: than what it really was. When companies financed by large 83 00:05:35,520 --> 00:05:39,720 Speaker 2: asset managers go from being priced as safe loans to 84 00:05:40,000 --> 00:05:41,560 Speaker 2: near total write offs in weeks. 85 00:05:42,600 --> 00:05:43,679 Speaker 1: Those blow ups. 86 00:05:43,560 --> 00:05:46,760 Speaker 2: Or the cockroaches that you notice when somebody finding flips 87 00:05:46,760 --> 00:05:49,640 Speaker 2: on the light. Now, from my perspective, these are not 88 00:05:49,760 --> 00:05:52,680 Speaker 2: random accidents. There are signals that a lot of risk 89 00:05:52,720 --> 00:05:58,000 Speaker 2: has been mispriced across private credit funds and complex structures. 90 00:05:58,360 --> 00:06:01,440 Speaker 2: And I actually worry that an investorymps and forced markdowns 91 00:06:01,760 --> 00:06:05,480 Speaker 2: could spread through the broader markets. So my argument would 92 00:06:05,480 --> 00:06:11,560 Speaker 2: be that the manufacturers kept producing. They just kept producing 93 00:06:11,600 --> 00:06:15,600 Speaker 2: all those widgets as if a robust second half recovery 94 00:06:15,640 --> 00:06:20,080 Speaker 2: had been guaranteed, and now that bill is coming due. 95 00:06:21,000 --> 00:06:23,880 Speaker 1: When the surveys, when you go. 96 00:06:23,960 --> 00:06:29,320 Speaker 2: To places like No Nerd Wallet in others, you'll see 97 00:06:29,360 --> 00:06:35,160 Speaker 2: surveys described as unprecedented, unplanned inventory build up and collapsing 98 00:06:36,160 --> 00:06:40,440 Speaker 2: order of backlogs. Well, I interpret that is warehouses that 99 00:06:40,560 --> 00:06:43,080 Speaker 2: must be stuff with a bunch of stuff that were 100 00:06:43,080 --> 00:06:47,200 Speaker 2: made for a demand surge, and that demand surge never arrived. 101 00:06:47,640 --> 00:06:50,160 Speaker 2: So there's only one logical next step if you are 102 00:06:50,240 --> 00:06:55,000 Speaker 2: a producer or you're a business owner, production cutter layoffs, 103 00:06:55,520 --> 00:06:58,560 Speaker 2: which linked the manufacturing story right back to a weakening 104 00:06:58,600 --> 00:07:02,440 Speaker 2: labor market, and that reinforces my belief that the real 105 00:07:02,440 --> 00:07:05,880 Speaker 2: economy is contracting, even while the GDP and the stock 106 00:07:05,960 --> 00:07:09,640 Speaker 2: industy still looks so strong every time I hear, I mean, 107 00:07:10,080 --> 00:07:15,200 Speaker 2: what's up today? CNBC's up today, Uber Tech Uber's down 108 00:07:15,480 --> 00:07:20,240 Speaker 2: five point five at eighty four oh nine. Somebody, Joe 109 00:07:20,360 --> 00:07:23,440 Speaker 2: Terra Nova has sold has sold his Uber stock. Okay, well, 110 00:07:23,480 --> 00:07:24,440 Speaker 2: good for you, Joe. 111 00:07:25,480 --> 00:07:26,320 Speaker 1: But overall, can. 112 00:07:26,280 --> 00:07:29,040 Speaker 2: I don't see what the I guess some newslurt coming up. 113 00:07:29,040 --> 00:07:31,880 Speaker 2: I don't see. They're not showing the indices yet. Oh 114 00:07:31,960 --> 00:07:36,520 Speaker 2: the NASDAK, well, the nasdak's down sixty seven, down zero 115 00:07:36,560 --> 00:07:40,560 Speaker 2: point two nine percent. Russell is up seven point thirty six. 116 00:07:42,120 --> 00:07:43,800 Speaker 2: That's what the Federal Reserve is going to be looking 117 00:07:43,840 --> 00:07:46,320 Speaker 2: at there. 118 00:07:46,600 --> 00:07:50,360 Speaker 1: Didn't you think about housing? Because housing is. 119 00:07:50,360 --> 00:07:54,800 Speaker 2: Another arena where surface level positives hide a really deeper 120 00:07:54,880 --> 00:07:59,760 Speaker 2: dysfunction because most homeowners were locked into very low mortgage 121 00:07:59,840 --> 00:08:03,760 Speaker 2: rate unwilling to sell into a higher rate world, and 122 00:08:03,800 --> 00:08:07,880 Speaker 2: then the potential buyers simply can't afford current prices at 123 00:08:07,920 --> 00:08:12,680 Speaker 2: those higher mortgage rates, so the volume of the transactions 124 00:08:13,200 --> 00:08:18,200 Speaker 2: starts to collapse. Now to me, that leads builders sitting 125 00:08:18,200 --> 00:08:21,920 Speaker 2: on record levels of finished the inventory, and that sets 126 00:08:21,960 --> 00:08:26,760 Speaker 2: the stage for price declines. While commercial real estate faces 127 00:08:26,800 --> 00:08:29,680 Speaker 2: high vacancy and regional banks quietly hoping that they're not 128 00:08:29,720 --> 00:08:32,559 Speaker 2: forced to recognize the losses that are embedded in their 129 00:08:32,600 --> 00:08:37,440 Speaker 2: loan books. When I look at the dollar, the dollar's 130 00:08:37,520 --> 00:08:41,320 Speaker 2: rinty higher against multiple major and emerging market countries, I 131 00:08:41,480 --> 00:08:45,240 Speaker 2: do not see that is a simple vote of confidence 132 00:08:45,600 --> 00:08:49,000 Speaker 2: in our economic strength. What I see is a tightening 133 00:08:49,040 --> 00:08:52,720 Speaker 2: global liquidity and a shift toward risk off behavior because 134 00:08:52,880 --> 00:08:57,320 Speaker 2: that pattern has echoed past global growth scares. So I 135 00:08:57,400 --> 00:09:01,320 Speaker 2: read the strong dollar as a warning that financial conditions 136 00:09:01,320 --> 00:09:05,240 Speaker 2: are tightening beneath the surface, making the system more fragile, 137 00:09:05,559 --> 00:09:07,520 Speaker 2: even as those equities that we see up here on 138 00:09:07,720 --> 00:09:12,600 Speaker 2: CNBC right now are hitting record highs. So in my 139 00:09:12,800 --> 00:09:18,400 Speaker 2: framework of looking at this, a surging dollar, stressed consumers, 140 00:09:19,360 --> 00:09:22,839 Speaker 2: weakening labor and manufacturing data, that's all part of the 141 00:09:22,880 --> 00:09:27,559 Speaker 2: same story. The supposed soft landing is masking real and 142 00:09:27,600 --> 00:09:33,840 Speaker 2: growing strain. When I go back to that story that 143 00:09:33,880 --> 00:09:37,640 Speaker 2: I read about the guy leaving the target under a 144 00:09:37,679 --> 00:09:40,640 Speaker 2: soft landing achieved manner, you know, just imagine that over 145 00:09:40,679 --> 00:09:45,480 Speaker 2: the target. What I'm trying to do is deliberately contrast 146 00:09:45,640 --> 00:09:50,040 Speaker 2: his actual lived experience with what we keep hearing as 147 00:09:50,040 --> 00:09:54,160 Speaker 2: the official narrative. In my mind, the economy is not 148 00:09:54,520 --> 00:09:57,400 Speaker 2: lighting gently to the runway, the plane is already in 149 00:09:57,440 --> 00:10:01,040 Speaker 2: tanker territory. Engines are sputtering, the outtitude is bleeding away. 150 00:10:01,200 --> 00:10:04,240 Speaker 2: The cockpit crew argues about whether to put the landing 151 00:10:04,280 --> 00:10:06,800 Speaker 2: gear down or not. Well, the way I see it, 152 00:10:06,840 --> 00:10:11,400 Speaker 2: we borrowed several years of demand from the future using 153 00:10:11,440 --> 00:10:15,720 Speaker 2: printed money shadow leverage, and now this year twenty twenty 154 00:10:15,720 --> 00:10:18,640 Speaker 2: five is when the invoice arrives. Reasoning that much of 155 00:10:18,679 --> 00:10:20,719 Speaker 2: the collateral backing the boom was never worth what we 156 00:10:20,880 --> 00:10:24,360 Speaker 2: pretended that it was worth. And that's why Trump is 157 00:10:24,400 --> 00:10:27,320 Speaker 2: out talking now. And as much as he dislikes the 158 00:10:27,400 --> 00:10:31,760 Speaker 2: word affordability, nonetheless the word affordability is the right word. 159 00:10:32,559 --> 00:10:35,080 Speaker 2: That's the pressure that people are facing. And what I 160 00:10:35,160 --> 00:10:38,160 Speaker 2: just described to you is the background that creates the 161 00:10:38,200 --> 00:10:43,960 Speaker 2: pressure those people are facing. So what's the solution. Well, 162 00:10:44,000 --> 00:10:51,040 Speaker 2: I do believe I think Scott sent Pasant is right. 163 00:10:51,960 --> 00:10:55,760 Speaker 2: I think is all of the tax credits, the reduction 164 00:10:55,880 --> 00:10:59,640 Speaker 2: in taxes, reduction on taxes on Social Security, no tax 165 00:10:59,679 --> 00:11:05,319 Speaker 2: on tip ups, the new rules and expensing. As all 166 00:11:05,320 --> 00:11:08,280 Speaker 2: of those starts to take place, I think you will 167 00:11:08,280 --> 00:11:10,320 Speaker 2: see a little bit of a mini boom, and I 168 00:11:10,360 --> 00:11:14,000 Speaker 2: do think the economy will start to I start to 169 00:11:14,040 --> 00:11:16,160 Speaker 2: say lurch forward, but I don't think it's going to 170 00:11:16,280 --> 00:11:18,520 Speaker 2: lurch forward. But I do think we'll start to see 171 00:11:18,559 --> 00:11:22,160 Speaker 2: the trend lines start to reverse, and I think we'll 172 00:11:22,200 --> 00:11:26,199 Speaker 2: start to see consumer sentiment reverse also, and people will 173 00:11:26,240 --> 00:11:29,000 Speaker 2: become more comfortable. I used, you know, I think it 174 00:11:29,040 --> 00:11:31,439 Speaker 2: was must have been last week. I used the example 175 00:11:31,480 --> 00:11:34,000 Speaker 2: of camera going to the grocery store and coming back 176 00:11:34,040 --> 00:11:37,240 Speaker 2: and commenting to some friends at dinner that chicken breast 177 00:11:37,400 --> 00:11:42,120 Speaker 2: seem to be less expensive. And my response was less 178 00:11:42,120 --> 00:11:47,080 Speaker 2: expensive compared to what compared to two, three, four, five 179 00:11:47,160 --> 00:11:50,920 Speaker 2: years ago, or compared to say, the past year, well, 180 00:11:51,120 --> 00:11:54,560 Speaker 2: the past year, the prices have dropped down. Then that 181 00:11:54,679 --> 00:11:59,199 Speaker 2: got the whole group you know talking about. Yes, prices 182 00:11:59,320 --> 00:12:04,480 Speaker 2: are coming down, but they still haven't broken that level 183 00:12:04,800 --> 00:12:07,320 Speaker 2: of the new baseline that was established because of all 184 00:12:07,360 --> 00:12:10,960 Speaker 2: the inflation. It was created by all of the governments spending. 185 00:12:12,000 --> 00:12:15,720 Speaker 2: We're still reading from that. And while I think the 186 00:12:15,760 --> 00:12:18,800 Speaker 2: Federal Reserve will do I hope they do a couple 187 00:12:18,760 --> 00:12:21,200 Speaker 2: of basis points cuts today. I don't know if they'll 188 00:12:21,200 --> 00:12:25,240 Speaker 2: do more than that, or even I don't even if 189 00:12:25,280 --> 00:12:30,200 Speaker 2: they'll do that, But whatever they do, I don't think 190 00:12:30,200 --> 00:12:34,480 Speaker 2: they need to worry about inflation taking back in because 191 00:12:34,679 --> 00:12:38,480 Speaker 2: we're still sitting on goods and services that we're buying 192 00:12:38,800 --> 00:12:42,480 Speaker 2: that are still at a new baseline, and while the 193 00:12:42,559 --> 00:12:45,600 Speaker 2: prices are coming down, lots of things you take cabs take. 194 00:12:46,200 --> 00:12:50,320 Speaker 1: Last night, I was I finally narrowed it down. 195 00:12:50,160 --> 00:12:52,680 Speaker 2: To two or three places because the guys that I 196 00:12:52,760 --> 00:12:55,520 Speaker 2: used to buy my beef from have just quit. They're 197 00:12:55,559 --> 00:12:57,480 Speaker 2: not doing it anymore. So I found a couple of 198 00:12:57,520 --> 00:13:01,120 Speaker 2: other places where they're doing it. Me down to the 199 00:13:01,280 --> 00:13:04,439 Speaker 2: down the rabbit hole of thinking about just exactly how 200 00:13:04,440 --> 00:13:08,120 Speaker 2: the cattle industry works. So back when all the inflation 201 00:13:08,240 --> 00:13:11,200 Speaker 2: is so high and you've got a cattle herd and 202 00:13:11,240 --> 00:13:14,160 Speaker 2: you can't afford to feed that herd because the price 203 00:13:14,160 --> 00:13:17,320 Speaker 2: of the feed and everything else that takes to run 204 00:13:17,360 --> 00:13:20,480 Speaker 2: that cattle herd, will you start to call the heart 205 00:13:20,520 --> 00:13:24,440 Speaker 2: the herd. And when you reduce it to say, let's 206 00:13:24,440 --> 00:13:27,360 Speaker 2: just say by fifty percent, because you can break even 207 00:13:27,400 --> 00:13:29,200 Speaker 2: at fifty percent, or maybe even they can make a 208 00:13:29,200 --> 00:13:31,360 Speaker 2: little money. If you you know you're running a thousand 209 00:13:31,440 --> 00:13:34,400 Speaker 2: head of cattle, you reduce it to five hundred, because 210 00:13:34,400 --> 00:13:36,600 Speaker 2: at five hundred head of cattle. You can either break 211 00:13:37,040 --> 00:13:39,000 Speaker 2: even or you can at least make a little bit 212 00:13:39,040 --> 00:13:42,760 Speaker 2: of money on that. Well, now you've eliminated half your herd. 213 00:13:44,040 --> 00:13:47,400 Speaker 2: It's not like picking up the phone and calling the 214 00:13:47,440 --> 00:13:52,080 Speaker 2: production manager at you know, some widget factory and say, hey, 215 00:13:52,120 --> 00:13:55,840 Speaker 2: I need five hundred head of cattle. It's going to 216 00:13:55,880 --> 00:14:00,560 Speaker 2: take time, and that time is measured in years to 217 00:14:00,640 --> 00:14:03,800 Speaker 2: get that cattle herd back up to a thousand head 218 00:14:04,559 --> 00:14:07,360 Speaker 2: from the five hundred that you called because you couldn't 219 00:14:07,360 --> 00:14:09,400 Speaker 2: afford it because of the four years of what Biden 220 00:14:09,480 --> 00:14:14,560 Speaker 2: did to us. But people don't understand that. They don't 221 00:14:14,640 --> 00:14:18,080 Speaker 2: understand that people are shifting from Target to Walmart and 222 00:14:18,120 --> 00:14:21,960 Speaker 2: why they're doing it, because everybody, no matter what level 223 00:14:22,000 --> 00:14:26,160 Speaker 2: you're at, you don't take Jeff Bezos for example, he 224 00:14:26,240 --> 00:14:28,600 Speaker 2: just recently, I shouldn't say recently, been the past year 225 00:14:28,640 --> 00:14:31,440 Speaker 2: or so, you know, spent a bazillion dollars on a 226 00:14:31,480 --> 00:14:32,000 Speaker 2: new yacht. 227 00:14:32,760 --> 00:14:33,320 Speaker 1: Probably if he. 228 00:14:33,360 --> 00:14:36,560 Speaker 2: Were to do that today, because that yacht started out 229 00:14:36,600 --> 00:14:39,840 Speaker 2: in a planning and design phase years ago before it 230 00:14:39,880 --> 00:14:43,040 Speaker 2: finally launched, you know, last year, well he might have 231 00:14:43,320 --> 00:14:46,880 Speaker 2: sized that back just a little bit, particularly considering the divorce, 232 00:14:47,320 --> 00:14:49,240 Speaker 2: So he might have sized it back just a little bit. 233 00:14:49,760 --> 00:14:53,360 Speaker 2: Everybody at every strata of the economy looks at You 234 00:14:53,640 --> 00:14:57,200 Speaker 2: don't think rich people, the billionaires that they don't look 235 00:14:57,240 --> 00:15:00,120 Speaker 2: at their pennies. You don't think the Warren Buffett every day. 236 00:15:00,360 --> 00:15:04,280 Speaker 2: What's the story about his wife was so much changed 237 00:15:04,320 --> 00:15:06,400 Speaker 2: in a cup and that's what he buys when he 238 00:15:06,400 --> 00:15:09,720 Speaker 2: goes to McDonald's every morning. Basically how much money she 239 00:15:09,800 --> 00:15:13,040 Speaker 2: puts in the cup. That's how he became a billionaire. 240 00:15:14,320 --> 00:15:17,240 Speaker 2: So they'll cut back. Also, then you get down to 241 00:15:17,320 --> 00:15:20,040 Speaker 2: our strata and you look at our strata, will you 242 00:15:20,080 --> 00:15:25,760 Speaker 2: do exactly the same thing. But most people don't understand. 243 00:15:25,800 --> 00:15:27,720 Speaker 2: While they'll bitch and moan and they'll vote, and I 244 00:15:27,840 --> 00:15:30,720 Speaker 2: understand why they vote their pocketbooks. But if you're going 245 00:15:30,800 --> 00:15:33,000 Speaker 2: to vote your pocketbook, I at least want you to 246 00:15:33,080 --> 00:15:36,480 Speaker 2: understand that what we're still trying to do is recover 247 00:15:36,600 --> 00:15:41,520 Speaker 2: from four years that just completely eviscerated the economy. And 248 00:15:41,560 --> 00:15:44,560 Speaker 2: it wasn't just the government spending. It was the tens 249 00:15:44,560 --> 00:15:48,040 Speaker 2: of millions of people that came into this country that yes, 250 00:15:48,120 --> 00:15:50,600 Speaker 2: they got a bunch of government spending, but they're also 251 00:15:50,640 --> 00:15:53,560 Speaker 2: a drain on the economy. And now we're trying to 252 00:15:53,560 --> 00:15:57,760 Speaker 2: recover from that too. So Trump's taking the appropriate steps. 253 00:15:58,680 --> 00:16:00,960 Speaker 2: But I think what he's got to do you mentioned 254 00:16:00,960 --> 00:16:05,200 Speaker 2: it was it was like a campaign rally. What he's 255 00:16:05,240 --> 00:16:08,320 Speaker 2: got to do is he's got to figure out a 256 00:16:08,360 --> 00:16:12,080 Speaker 2: way to explain to people that, yes, inflation rates are down, 257 00:16:12,960 --> 00:16:16,400 Speaker 2: prices have come down, but there's still a baseline. And 258 00:16:16,440 --> 00:16:20,440 Speaker 2: what he wants to do is either increase wages so 259 00:16:20,480 --> 00:16:23,640 Speaker 2: that we can start spending above that baseline, or bring 260 00:16:23,640 --> 00:16:26,520 Speaker 2: that baseline down a little bit so that the actual 261 00:16:26,880 --> 00:16:29,960 Speaker 2: cost cost of what we're paying for goods begins to 262 00:16:30,040 --> 00:16:33,640 Speaker 2: drop a little bit. And until he can explain that 263 00:16:33,720 --> 00:16:37,840 Speaker 2: because we have, with the exception of this audience, we 264 00:16:37,960 --> 00:16:42,960 Speaker 2: have a really economically ignorant group of people that are 265 00:16:43,080 --> 00:16:47,360 Speaker 2: just looking at Oh, they don't understand how many people 266 00:16:47,440 --> 00:16:49,880 Speaker 2: you think understand the cattle business and why the price 267 00:16:49,920 --> 00:16:52,280 Speaker 2: of beef is still high. I mean, that's just one example. 268 00:16:52,480 --> 00:16:55,880 Speaker 2: There are numerous reasons why beef is still so high, 269 00:16:56,080 --> 00:16:59,760 Speaker 2: but the primary driver I think, at least, you know, 270 00:16:59,760 --> 00:17:01,880 Speaker 2: when i'd look to go back to the story about 271 00:17:02,840 --> 00:17:04,560 Speaker 2: looking at a couple of places where I'm thinking about 272 00:17:04,560 --> 00:17:09,840 Speaker 2: buy my next side of beef, well, their prices when 273 00:17:09,880 --> 00:17:14,040 Speaker 2: I go online and check it. Historically it's up, but 274 00:17:14,160 --> 00:17:18,120 Speaker 2: their herds are down. And until those herds get back up, 275 00:17:18,600 --> 00:17:21,080 Speaker 2: their prices are going to remain a little bit higher 276 00:17:21,080 --> 00:17:23,399 Speaker 2: than they've been over the past, say, five or ten years, 277 00:17:23,600 --> 00:17:26,960 Speaker 2: simply because oh, they don't have as much product yet 278 00:17:27,000 --> 00:17:30,000 Speaker 2: the demand is there. Now the demand will drop off 279 00:17:30,040 --> 00:17:32,360 Speaker 2: a little bit and they'll have to adjust their prices 280 00:17:32,440 --> 00:17:37,440 Speaker 2: and or adjust the herds they start adjusting both. That's 281 00:17:37,480 --> 00:17:43,560 Speaker 2: real economics. Thank you, mister Cudlow. Eighty five percent of 282 00:17:43,600 --> 00:17:45,840 Speaker 2: the people who are listening have no idea what you 283 00:17:45,920 --> 00:17:49,000 Speaker 2: were talking about. Put Michael back on. 284 00:17:49,280 --> 00:17:53,920 Speaker 1: Thank you. I rest my case. 285 00:17:53,960 --> 00:17:56,840 Speaker 2: Then maybe you should go back and listen to it 286 00:17:56,880 --> 00:17:59,880 Speaker 2: again and think about exactly where we are in terms 287 00:17:59,920 --> 00:18:04,520 Speaker 2: of price structures and consumer behavior and the economy. 288 00:18:04,560 --> 00:18:06,800 Speaker 1: And I guess the. 289 00:18:06,800 --> 00:18:12,119 Speaker 2: Reason I did that is because you hear everything on 290 00:18:12,160 --> 00:18:14,400 Speaker 2: the news about the market is just wonderful. 291 00:18:14,400 --> 00:18:15,120 Speaker 1: And look. 292 00:18:15,840 --> 00:18:18,920 Speaker 2: Am I happy about the gains that I'm making on 293 00:18:19,520 --> 00:18:25,840 Speaker 2: my portfolio, Absolutely, but I think it belies what's really 294 00:18:25,880 --> 00:18:29,639 Speaker 2: going on in the real world economy. I mean, I 295 00:18:29,680 --> 00:18:35,359 Speaker 2: know most Americans, even indirectly, have some involvement inequities but 296 00:18:35,800 --> 00:18:38,439 Speaker 2: for the average American, it's about how much do I 297 00:18:38,440 --> 00:18:41,040 Speaker 2: pay for gas, groceries, what I have to buy at 298 00:18:41,080 --> 00:18:44,639 Speaker 2: Walmart or Target? What does it cost to you know, 299 00:18:44,760 --> 00:18:49,040 Speaker 2: clothe and feed the kids. And those prices are still 300 00:18:49,880 --> 00:18:54,640 Speaker 2: extraordinarily high. Now they're some thing's dropping a little bit. 301 00:18:55,000 --> 00:18:58,640 Speaker 2: Gas is dropped a little bit, but that gets off 302 00:18:58,640 --> 00:19:00,639 Speaker 2: set when you go to the grocery store or you 303 00:19:00,680 --> 00:19:02,600 Speaker 2: have to go buy Para Janes for your kids or 304 00:19:02,600 --> 00:19:07,640 Speaker 2: a Pari sneakers for your kids. It's interesting that Chad 305 00:19:07,720 --> 00:19:15,000 Speaker 2: mentioned during the news about the Epstein Transparency Act because 306 00:19:15,400 --> 00:19:20,760 Speaker 2: to my surprise, and I confess I've not read the 307 00:19:20,800 --> 00:19:24,479 Speaker 2: details of the legislation, but so the judge may have 308 00:19:24,480 --> 00:19:28,600 Speaker 2: looked at the law and said, yes, grand jury testimony 309 00:19:28,800 --> 00:19:32,000 Speaker 2: is generally, if not almost always, ninety nine point nine 310 00:19:32,000 --> 00:19:36,240 Speaker 2: percent of the time is kept confidential. But based on 311 00:19:36,320 --> 00:19:40,560 Speaker 2: the Transparency Act and our ability to redact certain things, 312 00:19:40,800 --> 00:19:42,720 Speaker 2: I'm going to release this testimony. I'm going to release 313 00:19:42,760 --> 00:19:51,159 Speaker 2: these files. The State of Florida began investigating Jeffrey Epstein in. 314 00:19:51,040 --> 00:19:54,680 Speaker 1: March of five. This is a twenty year old story. Now. 315 00:19:55,960 --> 00:19:58,960 Speaker 2: They were investigating a complaint made to the Palm Beach 316 00:19:59,400 --> 00:20:02,960 Speaker 2: PD by the Paris of a fifteen year old girl 317 00:20:03,400 --> 00:20:05,320 Speaker 2: who had been paid three hundred bucks to give him 318 00:20:05,320 --> 00:20:09,720 Speaker 2: a massage. In November of four, the police department had 319 00:20:09,800 --> 00:20:13,160 Speaker 2: received a complaint about young women coming and going from 320 00:20:13,160 --> 00:20:16,560 Speaker 2: Epstein's house late at night. In March of four, a 321 00:20:16,600 --> 00:20:20,280 Speaker 2: telephone complaint was phoned in to the same police department 322 00:20:20,320 --> 00:20:23,359 Speaker 2: in Palm Beach claiming that a seventeen year old girl 323 00:20:23,640 --> 00:20:27,520 Speaker 2: at the time was giving Epstein massage just while topless, 324 00:20:27,800 --> 00:20:29,880 Speaker 2: and she was being paid two hundred dollars each time 325 00:20:29,920 --> 00:20:33,960 Speaker 2: she did it. So that state that Florida state investigation 326 00:20:34,040 --> 00:20:38,080 Speaker 2: and prosecution was led by the Crimes Against Children's Unit 327 00:20:38,840 --> 00:20:41,920 Speaker 2: of Women the name of Atlanta Blokovic of the State 328 00:20:41,920 --> 00:20:47,439 Speaker 2: Attorney's Office. The federal investigation of Epstein started May of six, 329 00:20:47,960 --> 00:20:52,080 Speaker 2: and the lead prosecutor was Anne Marie Villafana. She's the 330 00:20:52,119 --> 00:20:55,000 Speaker 2: one that handled the majority of the child exploitation cases 331 00:20:55,240 --> 00:20:57,840 Speaker 2: in West Palm and in two thousand and six was 332 00:20:57,920 --> 00:21:01,720 Speaker 2: named the coordinator for Projects Childhood, which was a new 333 00:21:01,760 --> 00:21:05,119 Speaker 2: Department of Justice initiative that was focused on child sexual 334 00:21:05,119 --> 00:21:10,359 Speaker 2: exploitation and abuse. At various points during all these investigations, 335 00:21:11,240 --> 00:21:16,440 Speaker 2: including after preparing a prose memo and a proposed indictment 336 00:21:17,600 --> 00:21:21,520 Speaker 2: BILLI find a consulted with the Department of Justice, Child 337 00:21:21,600 --> 00:21:24,920 Speaker 2: Exploitation and ops in a desection that's. 338 00:21:24,680 --> 00:21:25,560 Speaker 1: Located in DC. 339 00:21:27,600 --> 00:21:30,879 Speaker 2: The FBI had been contacted by the police chief of 340 00:21:30,920 --> 00:21:35,440 Speaker 2: Palm Beach County, who was concerned that the state prosecutor 341 00:21:36,280 --> 00:21:40,960 Speaker 2: might charge Epstein only with simple counts involving solicitation of 342 00:21:41,080 --> 00:21:45,800 Speaker 2: prostitution without having any reference to minors, and that there 343 00:21:45,800 --> 00:21:49,959 Speaker 2: would likely be a misdemeanor plea outcome. The police chief 344 00:21:50,320 --> 00:21:54,320 Speaker 2: said the investigation revealed dozens of high school age girls, 345 00:21:54,680 --> 00:21:57,400 Speaker 2: some I'm under the age of eighteen involved in all 346 00:21:57,440 --> 00:22:02,000 Speaker 2: that massage activity. Ystein was aware of the state investigation 347 00:22:02,200 --> 00:22:06,080 Speaker 2: almost from the start. He hired attorneys. He hired private 348 00:22:06,119 --> 00:22:09,040 Speaker 2: eyes to go through the backgrounds of all the victims 349 00:22:09,520 --> 00:22:14,639 Speaker 2: while the cops were still conducting the investigation. His legal 350 00:22:14,680 --> 00:22:18,760 Speaker 2: team was led by the very famed Miami defense attorney 351 00:22:18,840 --> 00:22:25,520 Speaker 2: Roy Black Geraldficourt from New York, and of course Alan 352 00:22:25,600 --> 00:22:31,159 Speaker 2: Dershowitz Professor Dershowitz from Harvard. After the fed's investigation began 353 00:22:31,840 --> 00:22:35,600 Speaker 2: and Epstein's team became aware of it, including some who 354 00:22:35,680 --> 00:22:38,240 Speaker 2: had been federal prosecutors in the Southern District of Florida, 355 00:22:38,560 --> 00:22:41,600 Speaker 2: which included a former US attorney who was the deputy 356 00:22:41,640 --> 00:22:44,919 Speaker 2: chief of the Major Crimes Unit, and Lily Sanchez she 357 00:22:45,040 --> 00:22:48,320 Speaker 2: left the office back in five. Two attorneys from the 358 00:22:48,320 --> 00:22:52,879 Speaker 2: firm of Carkland and Ellis ken Starr, who was the 359 00:22:52,880 --> 00:22:56,600 Speaker 2: former US Solicitor General then serving as the dean of 360 00:22:56,640 --> 00:23:00,639 Speaker 2: the law school at Pepperdine. And Jay Lefkowitt, who's a 361 00:23:00,720 --> 00:23:05,280 Speaker 2: litigation partner who's been involved in all sorts of high 362 00:23:05,359 --> 00:23:09,399 Speaker 2: profile criminal cases, including during Bush forty one in my 363 00:23:09,480 --> 00:23:13,840 Speaker 2: old boss, and Martin Weinberg, and former US Attorney Joe Whitley. 364 00:23:14,320 --> 00:23:17,480 Speaker 2: Joe's actually an old friend of mine from DHS days. 365 00:23:18,640 --> 00:23:23,359 Speaker 2: There were more than thirty victims identified in interviewed recorded interviews, 366 00:23:23,720 --> 00:23:27,320 Speaker 2: first by the Palm Beach PD, later by the FBI, 367 00:23:28,200 --> 00:23:31,119 Speaker 2: and almost everybody agreed to cooperate with the cops, and 368 00:23:31,160 --> 00:23:34,720 Speaker 2: we're willing to testify. A few didn't now because the 369 00:23:34,720 --> 00:23:37,800 Speaker 2: fans picked up the state case already underway. 370 00:23:37,920 --> 00:23:39,560 Speaker 1: It seems to me that the focus was. 371 00:23:39,480 --> 00:23:41,520 Speaker 2: On a group of young girls and women from the 372 00:23:41,600 --> 00:23:44,480 Speaker 2: relatively recent past, say two thousand and three to two 373 00:23:44,480 --> 00:23:48,520 Speaker 2: thousand and six, and there is no indication that they 374 00:23:48,560 --> 00:23:51,960 Speaker 2: looked further back in time. Epstein paid the girls to 375 00:23:52,000 --> 00:23:54,399 Speaker 2: bring new friends along pass on the phone numbers to 376 00:23:54,440 --> 00:23:57,960 Speaker 2: his assistants. The Inspector General's report says that he got 377 00:23:57,960 --> 00:24:01,639 Speaker 2: as many as three massages a day and that Maxwell, 378 00:24:02,080 --> 00:24:04,720 Speaker 2: in her interview said Epstein was always asking to find 379 00:24:04,760 --> 00:24:07,200 Speaker 2: new girls, and that's how the cops and the FBI 380 00:24:07,280 --> 00:24:11,080 Speaker 2: found the victims, because they then all identified all the 381 00:24:11,080 --> 00:24:13,640 Speaker 2: other girls they knew of the girls that they themselves 382 00:24:13,640 --> 00:24:18,840 Speaker 2: had brought into the arrangement. There's no indication whatsoever in 383 00:24:18,880 --> 00:24:23,919 Speaker 2: the Inspector General's report that the six and seven investigation ever. 384 00:24:23,760 --> 00:24:25,639 Speaker 1: Involved hundreds of victims. 385 00:24:26,720 --> 00:24:29,359 Speaker 2: Maxwell, when she did her interview, told the Department of 386 00:24:29,480 --> 00:24:32,800 Speaker 2: Justice that his activities with Epstein's activities went all the 387 00:24:32,840 --> 00:24:35,920 Speaker 2: way back to the nineteen nineties and included locations other 388 00:24:36,000 --> 00:24:39,320 Speaker 2: than Palm Beach, and then he had all the civil 389 00:24:39,359 --> 00:24:43,359 Speaker 2: litigation before and after his death that resulted in the 390 00:24:43,440 --> 00:24:48,440 Speaker 2: number of compensated victims exceeding slightly more than three hundred. 391 00:24:50,800 --> 00:24:55,480 Speaker 2: In May of seven, an assistant US attorney that Villafana 392 00:24:55,560 --> 00:24:58,480 Speaker 2: that I told you prepared that eighty two page pros 393 00:24:58,560 --> 00:25:02,600 Speaker 2: memo and proposed a count indictment that she was prepared 394 00:25:02,640 --> 00:25:04,800 Speaker 2: to present to a federal grand jury in Palm Beach. 395 00:25:05,359 --> 00:25:07,040 Speaker 2: That was a year after she had opened the grand 396 00:25:07,119 --> 00:25:11,280 Speaker 2: jury investigation and starting collecting the evidence. A copy of 397 00:25:11,320 --> 00:25:15,840 Speaker 2: her memo was sent to the chief. The Child Exploitation 398 00:25:16,000 --> 00:25:20,160 Speaker 2: chief in DC gave it to his deputy and another attorney, 399 00:25:20,520 --> 00:25:22,879 Speaker 2: asking them to assess the legal issues in the case. 400 00:25:23,480 --> 00:25:28,680 Speaker 2: They all review the materials. The Child Exploitation Office offered 401 00:25:28,680 --> 00:25:31,400 Speaker 2: to assign an attorney to work with the attorney down 402 00:25:31,400 --> 00:25:36,240 Speaker 2: in Palm Beach on the case. There is no indication, 403 00:25:36,960 --> 00:25:41,000 Speaker 2: none whatsoever in either the IG report that the US 404 00:25:41,040 --> 00:25:45,320 Speaker 2: Attorney or the FBI ever focused on any other potential 405 00:25:45,400 --> 00:25:49,560 Speaker 2: defendants or co conspirators being actively involved in the sexual 406 00:25:49,600 --> 00:25:55,080 Speaker 2: abuse of minors. The only exception was for adult women. 407 00:25:56,119 --> 00:26:00,520 Speaker 2: They were referred to as Epstein's assistance, identified by name 408 00:26:01,440 --> 00:26:04,840 Speaker 2: in the provision that alleged that co conspirators would not 409 00:26:04,960 --> 00:26:09,760 Speaker 2: be prosecuted. So those four women helped in the same 410 00:26:09,800 --> 00:26:12,200 Speaker 2: way that Maxwell did. They brought in the new girls, 411 00:26:12,520 --> 00:26:14,639 Speaker 2: they explained what I was expectant of them, and they 412 00:26:14,680 --> 00:26:20,840 Speaker 2: paid them when they were finished. How was it that 413 00:26:20,880 --> 00:26:25,880 Speaker 2: the federal prosecutors in Florida came to an agreement that 414 00:26:28,040 --> 00:26:33,600 Speaker 2: the NPA was an appropriate outcome the non prosecution agreement. Well, 415 00:26:33,640 --> 00:26:35,600 Speaker 2: you go back to the three goals I listed above 416 00:26:36,440 --> 00:26:41,439 Speaker 2: In reviewing the pros memo and the proposed indictment. Alex Acosta, 417 00:26:42,040 --> 00:26:46,199 Speaker 2: the US attorney, both had concerns about whether the victims 418 00:26:46,200 --> 00:26:50,240 Speaker 2: would hold up under cross examination at trial based on 419 00:26:50,280 --> 00:26:52,359 Speaker 2: all the information they knew the defense was likely to 420 00:26:52,440 --> 00:26:57,360 Speaker 2: use to attack them. So and prosecutors do. They tend 421 00:26:57,400 --> 00:27:00,000 Speaker 2: to become over committed to the credibility of their witnesses. 422 00:27:00,200 --> 00:27:02,639 Speaker 2: And that problem is never more prevalent than in a 423 00:27:02,720 --> 00:27:07,439 Speaker 2: sex crime case, particularly when it involves minors. But everybody 424 00:27:07,560 --> 00:27:10,520 Speaker 2: involved knew there were going to be serious credibility issues 425 00:27:10,680 --> 00:27:13,480 Speaker 2: if that case went to trial. The girls had taken money, 426 00:27:13,600 --> 00:27:16,280 Speaker 2: some had come back, you know, multiple times, some had 427 00:27:16,320 --> 00:27:18,520 Speaker 2: said there was no sexual activity, and some said that 428 00:27:18,560 --> 00:27:21,879 Speaker 2: there was, including the fifteen year olds whose parents made 429 00:27:21,920 --> 00:27:26,639 Speaker 2: the very first complaint. So a Costa told the investigators 430 00:27:26,640 --> 00:27:28,840 Speaker 2: in Florida that he was also concerned about the trauma 431 00:27:28,880 --> 00:27:32,720 Speaker 2: that would be inflicted on the victims by the defense 432 00:27:32,840 --> 00:27:36,000 Speaker 2: in that case if it went to trial, So a 433 00:27:36,080 --> 00:27:40,600 Speaker 2: costa came to the agreement, that federal agreement that gave 434 00:27:40,680 --> 00:27:46,480 Speaker 2: him the misdemeanor. But there's one episode that's worth mentioning, 435 00:27:47,560 --> 00:27:52,200 Speaker 2: and that is this. The non prosecution agreement was contingent 436 00:27:52,840 --> 00:27:57,720 Speaker 2: upon Epstein fulfilling his obligations by pleading guilty, but as 437 00:27:57,760 --> 00:28:01,080 Speaker 2: of January eight, he had not yet done that. So 438 00:28:01,160 --> 00:28:05,240 Speaker 2: as attorneys led by that all star team of ken Starr, 439 00:28:06,000 --> 00:28:10,679 Speaker 2: they were asserting misconduct by the attorney in Florida in 440 00:28:10,720 --> 00:28:12,399 Speaker 2: the way that she would put together the evidence in 441 00:28:12,440 --> 00:28:18,800 Speaker 2: the case, details not important as non lawyers. But in 442 00:28:18,840 --> 00:28:22,760 Speaker 2: a concession to the defense claims, the US attorney agreed 443 00:28:22,800 --> 00:28:25,080 Speaker 2: to request the review of her work by the child 444 00:28:25,200 --> 00:28:26,840 Speaker 2: Exploitation Section of. 445 00:28:26,800 --> 00:28:29,919 Speaker 1: The Department of Justice. 446 00:28:30,640 --> 00:28:35,440 Speaker 2: The idea that the non prosecution agreement and the state 447 00:28:35,480 --> 00:28:38,320 Speaker 2: court plea by Epstein was some sort of sweetheart deal, 448 00:28:38,800 --> 00:28:42,600 Speaker 2: manticuit secret all the evidence about a cabal of rich 449 00:28:42,640 --> 00:28:46,640 Speaker 2: and famous pedophiles is simply a fantasy of people who 450 00:28:46,680 --> 00:28:51,320 Speaker 2: do not understand criminal trial work and the decisions that 451 00:28:51,400 --> 00:28:55,080 Speaker 2: prosecutors have to make before the first step they take 452 00:28:55,120 --> 00:29:01,320 Speaker 2: into a courtroom. When I get back the point that 453 00:29:01,360 --> 00:29:04,719 Speaker 2: I want to bring you to a conclusion to is 454 00:29:04,800 --> 00:29:09,600 Speaker 2: simply this. There will be no bombshells about a client 455 00:29:09,720 --> 00:29:13,600 Speaker 2: list found in the Epstein files in the weeks ahead. 456 00:29:14,360 --> 00:29:17,120 Speaker 2: It's just not going to happen. 457 00:29:17,800 --> 00:29:21,480 Speaker 3: Good morning, Michael and Dragon. Michael, you spot on. Affordability 458 00:29:21,600 --> 00:29:24,240 Speaker 3: is the word, It is the issue. I do not 459 00:29:24,360 --> 00:29:28,040 Speaker 3: believe we have landed yet. I don't think we're even 460 00:29:28,080 --> 00:29:31,960 Speaker 3: on approach, which is saying something. There is a lot 461 00:29:32,000 --> 00:29:35,680 Speaker 3: to undo here. I know me personally, in my family, 462 00:29:35,760 --> 00:29:39,160 Speaker 3: I mean, we consider ourselves blessed, but we buy in bulk. 463 00:29:39,200 --> 00:29:43,320 Speaker 3: We make everything we possibly can at home. You won't 464 00:29:43,360 --> 00:29:45,920 Speaker 3: catch us at a store these days, not anymore. 465 00:29:47,640 --> 00:29:50,760 Speaker 2: I rest my case. So why is it I don't 466 00:29:50,760 --> 00:29:54,320 Speaker 2: have much time here. This is going to bleed over 467 00:29:54,320 --> 00:29:56,760 Speaker 2: into the next hour. But why is it that I 468 00:29:56,800 --> 00:29:59,560 Speaker 2: really don't believe they're going to be any bombshells coming 469 00:29:59,600 --> 00:30:03,800 Speaker 2: from these DOJ Epstein files or from the grand jury testimony. 470 00:30:04,280 --> 00:30:07,880 Speaker 2: It's very simple because literally dozens, if not more than 471 00:30:07,880 --> 00:30:10,920 Speaker 2: one hundred people have seen the evidence that was gathered 472 00:30:10,920 --> 00:30:14,160 Speaker 2: in the original Florida investigation and based on the evidence 473 00:30:14,280 --> 00:30:17,200 Speaker 2: used in the New York trial of Gislain Maxwell. The 474 00:30:17,280 --> 00:30:20,880 Speaker 2: New York investigation reached even further back to find victims 475 00:30:21,080 --> 00:30:23,600 Speaker 2: all the way into the nineteen nineties, and then after 476 00:30:23,640 --> 00:30:28,040 Speaker 2: Epstein died, hundreds of victims sued his estate. They also 477 00:30:28,560 --> 00:30:32,640 Speaker 2: they sued deutsch Bank, they sued JP Morgan Chase, and 478 00:30:32,680 --> 00:30:34,200 Speaker 2: then two months ago, back. 479 00:30:34,080 --> 00:30:36,880 Speaker 1: In October, two more class. 480 00:30:36,480 --> 00:30:40,320 Speaker 2: Action lawsuits were filed against Bank of America and Bank 481 00:30:40,360 --> 00:30:44,719 Speaker 2: of New York Mellon. There are dozens of lawyers and 482 00:30:44,760 --> 00:30:48,840 Speaker 2: investigators who have poured over every detail of Epstein's life 483 00:30:48,880 --> 00:30:54,760 Speaker 2: and criminal activities, and yet today there's not one definitive 484 00:30:54,760 --> 00:30:58,120 Speaker 2: statement by anyone who has seen the information concerning the 485 00:30:58,160 --> 00:31:01,680 Speaker 2: identities of others so called rich and famous people supposedly 486 00:31:01,720 --> 00:31:04,760 Speaker 2: joining in with Epstein and abusing those young girls as 487 00:31:04,880 --> 00:31:09,080 Speaker 2: arranged by him for their pleasure. Not a single one, 488 00:31:10,160 --> 00:31:13,160 Speaker 2: and just as a tease, Think about this. If you 489 00:31:13,160 --> 00:31:16,320 Speaker 2: were rich and famous and your buddy Jeffrey Epstein had 490 00:31:16,360 --> 00:31:22,400 Speaker 2: just pleaded guilty to sexual molestation, albeit a misdemeanor, wouldn't 491 00:31:22,440 --> 00:31:23,480 Speaker 2: you have cut things off? 492 00:31:24,800 --> 00:31:28,479 Speaker 1: But let me explain another reason why. Next