Speaker 1: Do you want to be an American?
Speaker 2: Here we go sloany seven hundred WLW. We jump in
Speaker 2: with this. President Trump says Iran wants a deal and
Speaker 2: the war could end in days. But Iran says there
Speaker 2: are no talks, no negotiations, as strait is closed. And
Speaker 2: now we're having word that maybe there are some individuals
Speaker 2: inside Iran that are talking to God only knows. We
Speaker 2: don't have no idea who's telling the truth. And what
Speaker 2: happens if this whole thing falls apart. We're now sending troops,
Speaker 2: actual physical United States Marines and an expeditionary unit to
Speaker 2: the Middle East. We're starting to get troops on the ground,
Speaker 2: and certainly Democrats, but particularly a number of Republicans do
Speaker 2: not want that to happen. And what happens if we
Speaker 2: have to have ground trips? So we're going to go
Speaker 2: in and get the nuclear arsenal, We're going to go
Speaker 2: get the nukes out. That means boots on the ground.
Speaker 2: What does that look like? How do we navigate this?
Speaker 2: And every day this war goes on with no off ramp,
Speaker 2: problematic for US and our economy. Joining the show is
Speaker 2: doctor Markensel, former Director of International Studies and Human Rights
Speaker 2: Studies program founder all at the University of Dayton. He's
Speaker 2: our Middle Eastern Terrorism and the Leastern expert, doctor Mark.
Speaker 2: Good morning, How are you, good morning?
Speaker 3: How are you sing?
Speaker 4: I'm doing well. Thanks.
Speaker 2: So Trump postponed the strikes on the infrastructure for five days,
Speaker 2: cooled off. We saw the economy rebound, the markets reacted
Speaker 2: really really well. To that said, We've had conversations, but
Speaker 2: there's about a lot of mixed messages in there saying, well,
Speaker 2: we decimated everything. There's no one to talk to just
Speaker 2: a couple days ago, because we killed everybody, and now
Speaker 2: we're somehow negotiating with someone who didn't exist three days ago.
Speaker 2: So Iran flatly denies any negotiations that are happening. Who's
Speaker 2: telling the truth and why does it matter from a
Speaker 2: strategic standpoint?
Speaker 3: Oh my.
Speaker 5: So there's an old adage, right that the first casualty
Speaker 5: of war is the truth. Yes, and that seems to
Speaker 5: apply to the commander in chief, President Trump.
Speaker 3: We don't know what the truth is. You're right, we.
Speaker 5: Obliterated their nuclear material, but they can get bomb in
Speaker 5: two weeks.
Speaker 3: That's why we attacked.
Speaker 5: No, no, no, there's We'll only accept complete unconditional thrender.
Speaker 5: We're having talks and they're going, well, we just don't
Speaker 5: know what's going on now. I gotta tell you, Scott,
Speaker 5: I've been one of those pessimists to believe that conflict
Speaker 5: with the Islamic Republic Iran was was virtually inevitable given
Speaker 5: that regime influence the Mid Eastern weapons. But having a
Speaker 5: commander in chief who seems not to be sending clear
Speaker 5: giving clear answers to the American people about what the
Speaker 5: object of this war is is very.
Speaker 3: Very very frightening.
Speaker 2: Another of us have lived through the last time we
Speaker 2: did this, in that we had there's mission creep, right,
Speaker 2: we're going to uh, we're gonna go and we're going
Speaker 2: to take out Saddam, Who's okay. Great, Well we did that,
Speaker 2: and you know, we're in Afghanistan, we're in Iraq, we're
Speaker 2: we're all over the place. And we lost a number
Speaker 2: of well a lot of really good young people through
Speaker 2: the war. But at the same time, we still really
Speaker 2: know what the outstraats was. Okay, we toppled regime and
Speaker 2: then what happened, I mean ultimately ended with Biden pulling
Speaker 2: half acidly out of Afghanistan. And so what did we gain?
Speaker 2: We broke trust again in the Middle East? Are we
Speaker 2: set to do that all over again here?
Speaker 5: It would appear so, I mean, the they the real
Speaker 5: goal is to topple the regime. That's that's clearly Israel's desire.
Speaker 5: The presidents has said it many times. But at the
Speaker 5: same time, he promised as as a political candidate, not
Speaker 5: to have these permanent wars, these regime change.
Speaker 3: Wars, and that's exactly what we're doing.
Speaker 5: So it's it's it's we don't know whether he's confused
Speaker 5: or he's deceptive, but either way does not bode well
Speaker 5: for the next phase. Now you mentioned the Marines are
Speaker 5: on the en route. What they're talking about extracting new
Speaker 5: clear material is going to take boots on the ground. Yeah,
Speaker 5: you know, we're gonna go in it and it's gonna
Speaker 5: be hot. We're gonna fight our way in and extract
Speaker 5: that material which is deeply buried deeply unide the country
Speaker 5: or who knows. We have a diplomatic off ramp in
Speaker 5: the United Nations. The International Atomic Energy Commission goes in
Speaker 5: and supervises the extraction that material.
Speaker 2: Do you really trust the UN to do that? I
Speaker 2: mean the un is pretty worthless in my opinion.
Speaker 5: Youah, yeah, I'm with you, But it's gonna be someone
Speaker 5: who's gonna have to supervise the extraction of this material.
Speaker 1: Uh.
Speaker 5: And you know you don't hear it's spoken of very much.
Speaker 5: Is it possible? We're worried about the enrichment of the
Speaker 5: the uranium and can they develop what weapons?
Speaker 3: Sure, they can develop dirty bombs. They can put it
Speaker 3: out of.
Speaker 5: Low enriched material and fired in a ballistic missile, uh
Speaker 5: to tell Aviv and essentially turn into a nuclear wasteland.
Speaker 5: So the pre it has really opened up a courvial
Speaker 5: cannib worms here.
Speaker 4: And I think it's a lot was like me.
Speaker 2: I mean, we grew up there and you as well
Speaker 2: saw what the Iola did seventy nine. See what we
Speaker 2: see the regime and how pre seventy nine it look
Speaker 2: very western there. You know, women are going to university
Speaker 2: and now today, of course it's a dystopian hellhole and
Speaker 2: has been so for fifty years. No problem with decapitating
Speaker 2: the regime and provided though that we can kind of
Speaker 2: nudge them in the right direction. Now we're not good
Speaker 2: at nation building for sure, but right now there's just
Speaker 2: no clear picture coming out for I think the American
Speaker 2: people to understand that Trump says Iran has agreed to
Speaker 2: never have a nuclear weapon. But given their track record
Speaker 2: the Obama deal, for example, the Republican Guard lying about
Speaker 2: their missiles or missile range, why would anyone believe that,
Speaker 2: let alone the un of the United States. And if so,
Speaker 2: can't they just move there the fishing ball material somewhere else.
Speaker 5: Yeah, those are all logistical questions, technical questions that are
Speaker 5: difficult to answer. One thing's clear to me as a
Speaker 5: political scientist, is very interested in the nature of the
Speaker 5: regime that deocratic to telitarian state, is that you know,
Speaker 5: Israel clearly wanted and Trump seems to have been convinced that,
Speaker 5: you know, a blitz creed strike will topple that regime
Speaker 5: and we'll get a democratic So we don't have to
Speaker 5: put put you on the ground, we don't have to
Speaker 5: do what we did with that entertaining and so we
Speaker 5: can do it sort of magically. That's just a miss
Speaker 5: this miscalculation. So we could find a diplomatic ard ramp
Speaker 5: where we deal with the nuclear matil but leave in
Speaker 5: place the regime. There's an incredible missile program the strikes
Speaker 5: in Tel Aviv yesterday and today are really uptick in
Speaker 5: the in the escalation of the violence. One Israeli UH
Speaker 5: military commander said, what we got here with yesterday was
Speaker 5: something entirely new. No think about this for a second.
Speaker 5: They have been We've been bombing them for a month.
Speaker 5: The most sophisticated air force in the worlds were bombing
Speaker 5: them for a month, and they still have the ability
Speaker 5: to fire rockets at US, you know, so gives you
Speaker 5: a sense of what that regime would be and if
Speaker 5: they continue to build this missile program for a decade,
Speaker 5: another another few years.
Speaker 3: So there's a need for conflict.
Speaker 5: But you're right, we don't handle it well, and we
Speaker 5: certainly don't handle it well when there's uh, there's there's not.
Speaker 5: There's a lack of clarity in our strategic objective. We
Speaker 5: just can't get that from the president. And if you're
Speaker 5: an American citizen, particularly you're a president President supporter, Maggot supporter, Yeah,
Speaker 5: who believed what he said about no new wars, no
Speaker 5: regime changed wars, Stay stay at home, And suddenly you're
Speaker 5: looking at gas prices. You feel this at a really
Speaker 5: deep political level. You've been deceived. This is a very
Speaker 5: terrible situation where.
Speaker 4: They're market slag. Bizarre.
Speaker 5: It is.
Speaker 2: I'm starting to see the Trump did this. Bumpers are
Speaker 2: stickers on gas pumps now, like like with like they
Speaker 2: did with Biden and he was in charge. And it's
Speaker 2: just it's a bizarre world in which.
Speaker 4: We live right now.
Speaker 2: What if it worked, if we just simply said it's
Speaker 2: in a ray I think ran I think Israel does
Speaker 2: this the time to time. It's like, okay, well, you
Speaker 2: know what, we think you're getting too powerful, you're starting
Speaker 2: to build missiles up, and you're we're going to take
Speaker 2: you out. They launch a tactical strike and it's over.
Speaker 2: They're not invading, they're not trying to regime change, but
Speaker 2: they will as soon as it starts to bubble up
Speaker 2: or it looks like their enemy has too much, they
Speaker 2: go and they take it out. Should this have been
Speaker 2: that they're just simply okay, well, unless you're gonna play
Speaker 2: the game, we're gonna swat you back down. We're gonna
Speaker 2: take your program back several years and we'll keep you
Speaker 2: in check.
Speaker 3: That way.
Speaker 5: Would that have worked, who knows, But I mean it
Speaker 5: really means will will be repeating this conflict every few years. Yeah,
Speaker 5: to steem kind of what Israel's doing with Lebanon, with
Speaker 5: in Lebanon. Yeah, right, with every few years we've forgotten
Speaker 5: about We've gotten with the President's Board of Peace, with
Speaker 5: mister Truman, we forgot about that entirely Middle East. It
Speaker 5: becomes such a quagmire. Is that Vietnam term? So yeah,
Speaker 5: it requurs clarity and thoughts to about our strategic objectives
Speaker 5: and what is realistically possible. But we're not hearing that.
Speaker 5: We're hearing the president saying one thing one day, one thing,
Speaker 5: another thing the same day, and you can tell he's
Speaker 5: doing it for political reasons. Clearly he said we're at
Speaker 5: these constructive talks. I'm not a betting fellow, but I
Speaker 5: would bet on this that was clearly intended to influence
Speaker 5: the markets and the gas prices.
Speaker 3: So apparently false.
Speaker 5: It does not raise confidence in the administration and the president.
Speaker 2: Yeah, so what we say, Okay, just a few days ago,
Speaker 2: we wiped everything out, there's no one to talk to,
Speaker 2: and then hours later it's like, well, we're negotiating and
Speaker 2: we're talking to this the most respected Iranian official, I
Speaker 2: guess wit Coffin Jerk Kushner are talking to this individual?
Speaker 4: Is that really a person? Who would this be?
Speaker 5: You reminds me of Back to Iron, Remember Ron Condra
Speaker 5: Oliver North. Remember they flew over They had some secret
Speaker 5: meeting with the moderate, the Islamic moderates of the regime,
Speaker 5: and it was a complete falsehood or challaby in a rock.
Speaker 5: He had insights into what's actually inside of a rock.
Speaker 5: Trust him. So they may be talking to someone, they're
Speaker 5: clearly not talking to someone who's in the senior leadership
Speaker 5: of a deeply entrenched utilitarian state. So they're talking to somebody,
Speaker 5: but the person they're talking to can't can't speak for
Speaker 5: the regime.
Speaker 4: Yeah, he is.
Speaker 2: Doctor Mark Anseilaco from the University of Daton on the
Speaker 2: show this morning, seven hundred ww R Resident Middle Eastern
Speaker 2: Expert and terrorism expert on the show and contemplating with
Speaker 2: the move is here?
Speaker 4: What the play is here? With Trump?
Speaker 2: And you know, he's really good at pivoting and saying
Speaker 2: what's on his mind, but it seems like he's making
Speaker 2: this up from one second to the next. And even
Speaker 2: if you're mad, I think you agree. Is like, just
Speaker 2: tell us what's going on with the plan? Is there
Speaker 2: a plan here, And with each passing day it feels
Speaker 2: less and less like there's a plan, but more and
Speaker 2: more like we're going to be involved in something. It's
Speaker 2: a drag on for a long time, we hope not.
Speaker 2: And we're trying to find an off ramp here. And
Speaker 2: you wonder what the Trump administration inside the White House
Speaker 2: is trying to figure on the same what the play is.
Speaker 2: Right now, you've got people saying, well, this is Vietnam
Speaker 2: and Tet Offensive all over again. You know, thirty years ago,
Speaker 2: I couldn't tell you what the Tet Offensive was. But
Speaker 2: when you're older and you watch a lot of doctor
Speaker 2: Menors and War, as my wife calls it, you learned
Speaker 2: that the Tet Offensive was during the Vietnam conflict, in
Speaker 2: which in the Tet the holiday their New Year's they
Speaker 2: launched the North Vietnamese launched huge attacks on US installations
Speaker 2: throughout Vietnam, and people go, my guy, who was a
Speaker 2: turning port in the war, we got hand. No, we
Speaker 2: actually turned them back and beat the hell out of
Speaker 2: the Vietnamese in that. But it's a situation where and
Speaker 2: again everything repeats itself. Historically, we won militarily, but we
Speaker 2: lost politically. Is that a similar parallel here.
Speaker 5: Let me take a different angle at that the Vietnam thing.
Speaker 5: You know, when the United States simply declared victory and left,
Speaker 5: and we left ourselves at decent interval before when we left,
Speaker 5: before the North Threet and these took over. It was
Speaker 5: the two years that seems to be the president. Remember,
Speaker 5: the President has said he's the one who will decide
Speaker 5: when they've capitulated, when they've given.
Speaker 4: A gut feeling, right, the gut feeling.
Speaker 3: So he'll just say, like we won, we're leaving, okay.
Speaker 5: And it meantime, by the way, the damage to the
Speaker 5: infrastructure in the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of all Na, right,
Speaker 5: all the all the everything that's been struck by in
Speaker 5: the in the petroleum industry, everything's been struck by both
Speaker 5: sides in this has really damaged oil production that has
Speaker 5: affected multiple countries in the in the Golf and affected
Speaker 5: the global economy. So for the president to say, we
Speaker 5: launched this war for this reason, I'm going to declare victory.
Speaker 3: Even though we didn't achieve.
Speaker 5: The subjectives still left behind, uh a tremendous amount of
Speaker 5: damage that will affect their economy for some time.
Speaker 3: So, I mean good, I was a view that a
Speaker 3: war was good.
Speaker 5: I'm going to come with with Iran given the nature
Speaker 5: industry team and their militarization. But the president of the
Speaker 5: United States does not inspire confidence. Does not inspire confidence,
Speaker 5: is all I can put in.
Speaker 2: I sense that. And now the report out this morning.
Speaker 2: The breaking element here is there may be negotiations with
Speaker 2: the US and around held in Pakistan. We're continuing striking
Speaker 2: military targets as well. We've kind of laid off the
Speaker 2: straight of our moves to say, okay, well, let's maybe
Speaker 2: have some negotiations here, but we'll see if this is
Speaker 2: indeed true, if it plays out in the meantime. Of course,
Speaker 2: we have all sorts of juice on our side. I mean,
Speaker 2: you look at it, with all the stuff we've been
Speaker 2: talking about, Mark Zelaco, you know, maybe for the first
Speaker 2: time in a long time, we have the bulk of
Speaker 2: not all of the Middle East going, hey, we got
Speaker 2: to do something about Iran. Because they're launching missiles of
Speaker 2: Tel Aviv, which is nothing new, but Oman Dubai is
Speaker 2: under attack. It's everyone around them in the region wants
Speaker 2: this regime gone. This should be a lot easier than
Speaker 2: what we're talking about.
Speaker 4: Your shouldn't it.
Speaker 5: Yeah, what's happened since October twenty seventh when when Hamas
Speaker 5: attacked Israel. What's happened the destruction of Hamas and the
Speaker 5: serious debilitation of Hamas. Now his Bolah, the Jutis Siri
Speaker 5: has fallen, you know. So there's been there's been major
Speaker 5: geopolitical transformation in the Middle East. Uh, and the future
Speaker 5: is there to whole. I mean like in Lebanon for example,
Speaker 5: right now Israel bringing h the force of the bear
Speaker 5: on his Bela people, Shia who are you know, linked
Speaker 5: to his Belah are turning against it because yet again
Speaker 5: these fanatics have exposed us to another Israeli war. This
Speaker 5: happened Hamas now with his Belah in Lebanon. So there's
Speaker 5: a transformation in Middle East. But it's this small, it's
Speaker 5: got to clear, it's still it's still burunning. But yeah,
Speaker 5: the global community now with all these brackets from far
Speaker 5: from around hitting other Gulf states. Yes, he has woken
Speaker 5: them to the threat. They they've actually known about the
Speaker 5: thread for a very long time. We've always been fearful
Speaker 5: of Shia aggressive iron and yeah, so there's there's really
Speaker 5: a world war, a regional war going on right now,
Speaker 5: and we're deb in the middle of it.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I want to think that.
Speaker 2: You know, there are back channels, and what happened was
Speaker 2: we're able to sit down and we're gonna negotiate with
Speaker 2: someone and around because you know, clearly look at the
Speaker 2: regime right now, and they lost not just the head
Speaker 2: of the beast, but pretty much the middle and part
Speaker 2: of the tail right now, and they're struggling. And we
Speaker 2: still have no word if the newly installed Ayatola is
Speaker 2: even alive at this point because no one seen the guy.
Speaker 2: We have someonetile rise to power for sure. Uh, but
Speaker 2: I'm sure they want an end of this thing as well.
Speaker 2: Can will There's be some capitulation here. I don't know
Speaker 2: if it'll be like Trump said, Hey, listen, we'll decide
Speaker 2: who goes into who's going to be in power in Iran,
Speaker 2: and we'll work together. I don't see that happening, but
Speaker 2: I'm clearly Iran wants it in this thing.
Speaker 5: Who knows what Iran wants? And you're absolutely right, we
Speaker 5: do not know who we're speaking to. We do not know,
Speaker 5: you know, we could be speaking to someone who's an eatola,
Speaker 5: but they can't. If they didn't make promises, they can't
Speaker 5: deliver it.
Speaker 4: That Yeah, that's true.
Speaker 3: So we simply don't know.
Speaker 5: Now, Israel's got a greater visibility into Iran. I mean,
Speaker 5: they have penetrated Iron for quite some time, you know.
Speaker 5: That's why the decapitation's rights were so simple, and because
Speaker 5: they've been they penetrated for for decades. But we don't
Speaker 5: have that, We don't have that visibility.
Speaker 3: We don't have it. And we talked about this in
Speaker 3: the program last time I was on.
Speaker 5: I don't trust the intelligence community right now, given the
Speaker 5: quality of their leadership either.
Speaker 3: So we're in it.
Speaker 5: We're in a global crisis right now, and we have
Speaker 5: serious concerns about our ability to manage our way through it.
Speaker 2: Yeah, we're not losing sleep over over bombing the hell
Speaker 2: of a ran long time overdue. But what does an
Speaker 2: accept American win look like here? And is it achievable?
Speaker 2: That's the big question. What's the off ramp? Doctor Mark
Speaker 2: and Sulaco at the University up Dton. As always, thanks
Speaker 2: to the inside, appreciate it, Thank you, take care. We've
Speaker 2: got a news update here happening in just minutes as
Speaker 2: we count down to opening Day twenty twenty six on
Speaker 2: seven hundred WLW protein soda. There you go, There you go,
Speaker 2: Sloani here, seven hundred WW. Thanks for joining the show
Speaker 2: this morning. I love the criticism. Talk badly about Trump.
Speaker 2: You get killed by the AMaGA crowd. And if you go, hi, man,
Speaker 2: you know this is something Trump did. It's really good.
Speaker 2: You get killed by the progressive crowd. So that means
Speaker 2: I'm doing what I do here, and that is I
Speaker 2: make my own mind up based on what's happening at
Speaker 2: that exact moment in time. And if you subscribe to
Speaker 2: the political kool aid, and let me back up a second,
Speaker 2: how about some good news? You know, generally news and
Speaker 2: talk great, it's all negative. The world's ending, it's crime,
Speaker 2: it's all my god, we're gonna get This is why
Speaker 2: you got to buy gold and you got to buy
Speaker 2: an emergency medical kid, and you need a raider and
Speaker 2: more gold and how bad are things right now? Some
Speaker 2: perspective for you. And I thought of this because I
Speaker 2: keep hearing and we play them here. But the Thomas
Speaker 2: Massey is I love Thomas Massey as a libertarian leaning person.
Speaker 2: I think he's refreshing we should you know, you should
Speaker 2: call the the other side should be held accountable. Okay,
Speaker 2: but I think it says a lot more if you
Speaker 2: can hold your own side accountable, which he does. However,
Speaker 2: these ads he's running against Ed gall Ryan, and Ed's
Speaker 2: been on the show many times, a great guy. The
Speaker 2: tagline and it is not just a Trump hater a
Speaker 2: Trump trader. Now, I just wonder who that's targeted to.
Speaker 2: Not you, I don't think, or me, because waitn hold on,
Speaker 2: let me christ my. So Trump is endorsing a guy
Speaker 2: that hates him? How does that even How does that
Speaker 2: even make sense? Except in the world of politics. If
Speaker 2: you're so into the political identity that you're a whole
Speaker 2: identity is whether you're a Trump supporter or Trump hater,
Speaker 2: I kind of feel bad for you. Why would he
Speaker 2: endorse then? Why would Trump endorse a guy who hates
Speaker 2: him or is a trader? To maga, it just it
Speaker 2: doesn't make any sense. But it's politics. It's not supposed
Speaker 2: to make any sense. You have the people who tell
Speaker 2: you politics is the most important thing in the world
Speaker 2: really believe this kind of stuff. What makes you think, like,
Speaker 2: am I normal? Or are they abnormal? I think he
Speaker 2: got that right, you're normal. But I mentioned how we
Speaker 2: got to pump the brakes on this whole thing in granted,
Speaker 2: Iran is illustrative of where we are with Donald Trump
Speaker 2: right now. I was like, from one minute to the next,
Speaker 2: it's a different story. We wipe them completely out, they
Speaker 2: have no nukes left, but we got to go get
Speaker 2: the nukes. You know, We're going to do this all
Speaker 2: from a tactical position, and we're going to strike them
Speaker 2: until they scream uncle. And we're going to put our
Speaker 2: own people in there and they're going to go with it.
Speaker 2: And that's not happening. And also, no boots on the
Speaker 2: ground except for all the Marines we're sending there. Okay,
Speaker 2: that only maybe makes sense and true social but the
Speaker 2: reality is this. I mean, you think the sky is
Speaker 2: falling for you, it probably is because we live in
Speaker 2: a it's like a vibe pression, right, Vibe depression will
Speaker 2: call this trademark, like consumer sentiment has. Right now, consumer
Speaker 2: sentiment is below where we were in the financial crisis
Speaker 2: of two thousand and eight, below where we were in
Speaker 2: the pandemic of twenty twenty. Despite if you look at
Speaker 2: the numbers, they're pretty good The biggest driver to where
Speaker 2: you think the economy is great or it's awful is
Speaker 2: party affiliation. Economic perception now tracks who's in the White
Speaker 2: House more than actually what's in your paycheck. And obviously
Speaker 2: Democrats are more negative on the economy now than Republicans
Speaker 2: were under Biden, which proves the point.
Speaker 4: And so it gets back to that.
Speaker 2: Thomas masseyad both sides have done complete one to eighty
Speaker 2: and the economy hasn't moved. Trump called Biden's economy in
Speaker 2: nightmares a candidate and now says America's economy is bigger, better,
Speaker 2: and rich are stronger than ever. Democrats went from Harris
Speaker 2: bragging it was the strongest commomy in the world, just
Speaker 2: screaming affordability crisis.
Speaker 4: Well, guess what.
Speaker 2: Let's look at the actual numbers. They're almost identical year
Speaker 2: over year across every major metric. Almost all major metrics,
Speaker 2: so GDP growth, unemployment, inflation, real wages, mortgage rates, the
Speaker 2: budget deficit, all were in the measurement era of twenty
Speaker 2: twenty four. Levels real purchasing power wages grew one point
Speaker 2: four percent. It grew one point to under Biden. Tariffs
Speaker 2: read roughly added a half point to inflation, painful, but
Speaker 2: nowhere near the economic armageddon that democrats predicted. On either
Speaker 2: side about ninety percent years, economy has a little involvement
Speaker 2: in trade. Most Americans didn't meaningfully change their behavior over tariffs.
Speaker 2: Gas will do that, for sure, but tariff's not so much.
Speaker 2: And Gretin, who hell wants to pay more when you
Speaker 2: promise everything would be cheaper. AI has been a disruptor,
Speaker 2: but it hasn't moved the macro needle despite all the hype.
Speaker 2: And yeah, the war is hurting us consumers, but markets
Speaker 2: expect us to be temporary. This is not nineteen seventy nine.
Speaker 2: We'll talk about that later in the show with Andy
Speaker 2: Shaeffer at eleven thirty five with all Worth first perspective
Speaker 2: on this one. But why is consumer cent it done?
Speaker 2: Because you know, if you think it's bad, it's bad.
Speaker 2: You know your wallet didn't change when the rieter changed,
Speaker 2: but your moon might have. And the economy is it's
Speaker 2: an ocean liner, it's not a it's not a speedboat.
Speaker 2: And presidents take a lot of credit and dis themselves
Speaker 2: all the time from the bad, but presidents move it
Speaker 2: far far less. And either side wants you to believe,
Speaker 2: and that is true whether it's a Democrat or Republican,
Speaker 2: And we'll take all the credit when things are going
Speaker 2: well and it's the other guy's fault when it's not,
Speaker 2: Like how much longer can you keep lemming Biden for
Speaker 2: stuff after your office for a year?
Speaker 6: Okay?
Speaker 2: At some point it's like, all right, yeah, we'll give
Speaker 2: you like the first six eight months, but after that,
Speaker 2: when you're a year in, you to own that economy.
Speaker 2: And I think it's fair and reasonable to hold to
Speaker 2: the standards on which you promise, which you ran on,
Speaker 2: whether it's Biden or whether it's Trump. But again, the
Speaker 2: problem is politics. The politics is clouding a lot of
Speaker 2: people's judgment in this thing that you look at and go, wow,
Speaker 2: it's you know, if Biden, if Kamala Harrison won and
Speaker 2: let's say, hey, you know, we're going to raise everyone's
Speaker 2: taxes to pay for all these programs we want. I
Speaker 2: wonder how many people who are progressives wouldn't think twice
Speaker 2: about it, going, oh, yeah, we're gonna say, but you're
Speaker 2: paying more money, more money is coming out. Yeah, but
Speaker 2: it's for something I believe in. Okay, So how is
Speaker 2: that any different than those people who wanted the Iran decapitated.
Speaker 2: You know, can we I got okay, I gotta pay
Speaker 2: harder gas prices a while, But but there's hope there.
Speaker 2: And on either side there's probably not not much as changing.
Speaker 2: I mean, you're really gonna you think Iran's is simply
Speaker 2: going to wake up one day and they're gonna look
Speaker 2: like Canada Now, not gonna happen. I almost assure that.
Speaker 2: But we are sitting down and negotiating. But we weren't
Speaker 2: negotiating because they're dead. But now they're alive and we're
Speaker 2: talking to people like it makes no sense. And now
Speaker 2: if you've started adding more people or more troops on
Speaker 2: the ground, that's the problem right there, and that we
Speaker 2: cannot have because something like sixty percent of us, sixty
Speaker 2: percent of Americans do not want that at all, don't
Speaker 2: want it at all, whether you're a Democrat or republic
Speaker 2: and that's a growing number with each and every passing day.
Speaker 2: So just a little perspective here, the glass half full,
Speaker 2: half empty, that's what the glass looks like. It's actually
Speaker 2: it's a glass, and you decide I it's half full
Speaker 2: or empty. And right now, too many people are thinking
Speaker 2: the glass is half empty when it's it's really not.
Speaker 2: It's the same glass. It's the same almost the same
Speaker 2: amount of liquid.
Speaker 4: It's damn.
Speaker 2: You look at the you know, some things have gone up,
Speaker 2: some things have gone down, but it's a trade off.
Speaker 2: The overall economy is still really really strong despite what
Speaker 2: you may think. And yeah, gas is a pain in
Speaker 2: the button. Tariffs have added to that, but we seem
Speaker 2: to be absorbing it, which is which is good. Boy,
Speaker 2: here's a dumb person. This is gonna be the dumbest
Speaker 2: person ever did Are you a fan or Reacher?
Speaker 6: On?
Speaker 5: Uh?
Speaker 2: Was on Amazon? You know, I am all of about
Speaker 2: mindless violence, just inhuman I watched a movie over the
Speaker 2: weekend just like that, and like once in a while,
Speaker 2: it just hits like it's a stupid movie. The premise
Speaker 2: is dumb, but there's a lot of ass whooping going
Speaker 2: on and sometimes you just need that, like the good guys.
Speaker 2: And when Mary talking about this, the more you see
Speaker 2: of those you know, hero kind of guys out there,
Speaker 2: the enforcers that people you know, way back in the
Speaker 2: old old days, you know, guy like Chuck Bronson make
Speaker 2: those movies when the you know, the seventies, when the
Speaker 2: streets of New York and other big cities were burning basically,
Speaker 2: and it was crime was out of control, the economy
Speaker 2: was bad, and so you need these everyday men to
Speaker 2: step up and you know, fight the bad guys because
Speaker 2: the good guys aren't like we have in Cincinnati right now.
Speaker 2: You know, the bad guys are run around. Do what
Speaker 2: that bad guys do. You kind of like need a
Speaker 2: vigilante type out there to set things straight, and Reacher
Speaker 2: is kind of that guy. If you're a fan of
Speaker 2: that show. The actor's name is Alan Richson, and from
Speaker 2: what I've read about the guy, he's being a big
Speaker 2: fan of show. He's like the nicest guy in the world,
Speaker 2: like those church hangs out neighborhood just like you know,
Speaker 2: just an every day guy, a Shuck's kind of guy.
Speaker 2: But his job in the TV show reachur in some
Speaker 2: of the other movies. He's then actually made a movie
Speaker 2: I watched a couple of weekends ago that was just
Speaker 2: purely awful.
Speaker 4: That he was in. I think his first not a
Speaker 4: major motion picture, but it was. It was terrible.
Speaker 2: He's trying to get back into the Armated military because
Speaker 2: his brother died, and then anyway, winds up like on
Speaker 2: some sort of mission and it's a practice thing, except
Speaker 2: it turns into aliens invade America. Like I don't know
Speaker 2: what's going on here. I lost interest, but Alan Richmond
Speaker 2: and rich is fantastic.
Speaker 4: So he is.
Speaker 2: There's video on TMZ of this. And he's a big boy,
Speaker 2: I mean, Alan Richman is. He's a house. He's a
Speaker 2: freaking house. And he's going through his neighborhood on his
Speaker 2: motorcycle with I guess kids. I guess his kids maybe
Speaker 2: were there. This is a Nashville right down the road
Speaker 2: from us here, and he's the neighbor that the angry
Speaker 2: neighbor said. He's driving up and down on his bike
Speaker 2: excessive speed, revving his engine, disturbing the piece, and so
Speaker 2: he flips off Alan Richson, and Alan Richon well returns.
Speaker 4: The gester flips him back off.
Speaker 2: So the next day or daily he comes to driving
Speaker 2: back down and apparently the victim of the alleged victim,
Speaker 2: Ronnie Taylor said, Alan Richard was riding his Kawasaki through
Speaker 2: the quiet Well to do national suburbs, flying at excessive
Speaker 2: speed and revving his engine and all these things.
Speaker 4: And he's with his kids.
Speaker 2: So I don't know if he's doing that or not,
Speaker 2: but nonetheless, all this this guy comes up Rodnie Taylor
Speaker 2: and pushes him off his motors, up his motorcycle and
Speaker 2: then hits him two more times, at which point is
Speaker 2: when a neighbor starts recording this. And it looks like
Speaker 2: a dad fight and a toddler because you see this
Speaker 2: guy down on one of ay and and Alan Richin
Speaker 2: is just pommeling this guy.
Speaker 4: So he's on video on TMZ and he looks like.
Speaker 7: You know, the before and after, except this is the
Speaker 7: after is not really good. He's got a shot, he's all.
Speaker 7: He's all, he's beat to hell. Guy looks like he's
Speaker 7: been through it. But how dumb are you? I bad
Speaker 7: get it.
Speaker 2: Somebody's speeding up and down, but he wondered this guy
Speaker 2: is all, does he got it all together? And again,
Speaker 2: it doesn't matter if you live in the poorest neighborhoods
Speaker 2: or the wealthiest neighborhoods, there's always that guy. I just
Speaker 2: got to feel in this. Ronnie Taylor's that guy. Like
Speaker 2: he's driving. Okay, is the bike a little loud? Maybe
Speaker 2: you're disturbing the piece. You're speeding up and down Okay,
Speaker 2: so maybe you're going a couple of miles over the
Speaker 2: speed limit. I mean, I'm probably not driving eighty ninety
Speaker 2: up and down the street. But he responds to me, going,
Speaker 2: hey man, you know it's kind of quiet. He flips
Speaker 2: the guy off, so that starts, and then then he
Speaker 2: comes back around and this guy shoves reach her off
Speaker 2: his bike. Well, what do you think is gonna happen?
Speaker 2: F around and find out. Yeah, I just I live
Speaker 2: the story went, I don't really have a dog in
Speaker 2: the sun. It's interesting, But why would you pick a
Speaker 2: fight with that dude? And he said, I had no
Speaker 2: idea who he would. I don't know even if you
Speaker 2: didn't know who he was. And he's an actor, he's
Speaker 2: playing a tough guy. He's still a big dude.
Speaker 5: You know.
Speaker 4: You mess around with that, you gotta gets your ass whooped.
Speaker 2: There's another one I can't figure out too. This is
Speaker 2: this is another story. You need more information of it.
Speaker 2: This guy name is Dayton Weber. He's twenty seven. He
Speaker 2: is a professional cornhole player. He is on the tour,
Speaker 2: the Cornhole Tour, whatever the cornhole tour is, and he
Speaker 2: is now in jail in Maryland charged with first degree murder.
Speaker 2: So the dude's rolling in his car and he's got witnesses,
Speaker 2: he's got people in the back seat, and the victim
Speaker 2: is also a twenty seven year old man named Brad Wells,
Speaker 2: and mister Wells was shot by Dayton Webber, the cornhole guy,
Speaker 2: the front seat passenger. They got in an argument while
Speaker 2: Weber is driving. Maybe I don't know who they're fighting over, reacher,
Speaker 2: I don't know, maybe fighting about the Iran war. Shoot
Speaker 2: the guy dead in his own car, the corn hole
Speaker 2: professional and fled with the body still in the car.
Speaker 2: After the backseat passengers refuse to help get rid of
Speaker 2: the body. It's like, I need you to help me
Speaker 2: get rid of this guy and just shot. Like, no,
Speaker 2: we're not doing that. What we are going to do
Speaker 2: is go right to the police. Here is the increased
Speaker 2: difficulty level on this crime. Sorry, what's the big deal?
Speaker 2: Corn professional goal or player murder someone? I suppose cornhole
Speaker 2: players can get angry, Sure, why not? The dude is
Speaker 2: a quadruple amputee. Now I know we have prosthetics and
Speaker 2: things like that, but the quadruple amptit ampute driving a
Speaker 2: car and while driving the car also a professional cornhole
Speaker 2: player while while driving the car, somehow is able to
Speaker 2: get a gun and shoot this guy. And the biggest
Speaker 2: question you have is how how a would a quad ampute?
Speaker 2: I have no idea how that works. I'm not making
Speaker 2: fun of the contition. I'm just curious. You're driving and
Speaker 2: shooting a guy and you play cornwall professionally pretty good,
Speaker 2: maybe like an Oscar Pistorius kind of thing, you know,
Speaker 2: the blade runner thing, but that one is like leaving Huh,
Speaker 2: I wonder what that looked like exactly.
Speaker 4: That's exactly what I wonder. Do we have video?
Speaker 2: I kind of need to see some video there, just
Speaker 2: asking we got news on the way in just minutes.
Speaker 4: And then as we focus.
Speaker 2: About Iran and you know, possible lone wolf attacks and
Speaker 2: maybe nuclear salts and dirty bombs and all these things
Speaker 2: that were scared to death of are we not paying
Speaker 2: attention to the obvious? Based on what happened with Striker
Speaker 2: Medical Devices and most recently Microsoft in that attack. Is
Speaker 2: our buddy Chris Nihi, CEO of Cincinnia based Vision in Cybersecurity,
Speaker 2: has done some research and you're not going to believe
Speaker 2: what he found out relative to now computer code being
Speaker 2: infected with malware. Nobody knows about it. He just did
Speaker 2: some investigation and broke this. Don't share that with you. Next,
Speaker 2: and why we should be more concerned about hackers then
Speaker 2: we should be about bombers. Next Scott's Loan Show, seven
Speaker 2: hundred WW Cincinnati.
Speaker 1: Do you want to be an American slill?
Speaker 4: Be back on seven hundred WLW.
Speaker 2: I don't know if you know this word war trying
Speaker 2: to get out of it, but so we are definitely
Speaker 2: in it. And you know, we're concerned about attacks in
Speaker 2: the homeland, lone wolf attacks and things like that. The
Speaker 2: biggest one is, you know, cyber attacks. And remember a
Speaker 2: couple of weeks ago, if that we had the attack
Speaker 2: on Striker, the medical company, and they're still trying to
Speaker 2: dig out from that. An Iranian linked hacking group called
Speaker 2: three thirteen team claim responsibility for Microsoft's three sixty five
Speaker 2: out it just last week, saying the knocked out service
Speaker 2: for five hours and wanted to extend the attack. And
Speaker 2: it looked like it's fine. They were able to fix that.
Speaker 2: But these things might be part of a big one
Speaker 2: yet to come. And he's uncovered something that indicates that
Speaker 2: that is true. His name is Chris Nihisk. He is
Speaker 2: the CEO of Cincinnati based Vigilant Cybersecurity, joined to the
Speaker 2: show this morning. Chris, welcome, how are you.
Speaker 6: I'm doing great, Scotts, good to be here.
Speaker 2: So real quick, let's back up Microsoft, and I remember
Speaker 2: three sixty five wasn't work. I was getting mail and
Speaker 2: it affect a lot of people, but it was kind
Speaker 2: of a blitz. It wasn't a huge outage, right, Like
Speaker 2: we're talking like Striker that was. That was a massive attack,
Speaker 2: shutting that company down essentially. Let's back up to that.
Speaker 2: Then with Striker, these stories get reported. Yeah, they had
Speaker 2: all their data taken away and they completely deleted the
Speaker 2: hard drives and they have all their data and Striker
Speaker 2: has nothing. Can you tell me what's going on inside
Speaker 2: Striker today now that we're not paying attention to it anymore,
Speaker 2: are they able to function?
Speaker 6: Right?
Speaker 8: I mean, so they're they're they're coming back online. They're
Speaker 8: working through that. And that's how these these things happen,
Speaker 8: is they take down the operations of an organization and
Speaker 8: then that organization start to you know, bring themselves back on.
Speaker 8: Now there's not a lot of information coming out of Striker,
Speaker 8: and you know, and and I understand why they don't
Speaker 8: want to really release a lot of opsect types of
Speaker 8: types of things of what they're doing or even what happened.
Speaker 8: And I'm sure that the US Department Defense is not
Speaker 8: letting them say a lot of things either because it's
Speaker 8: so connected. But you know, it is it is going
Speaker 8: to be a long road for them to bring things
Speaker 8: back online.
Speaker 4: Okay, fair enough.
Speaker 2: Then on we had the Microsoft out just last week,
Speaker 2: and like I said, I we were affected by a
Speaker 2: little bit, but that wasn't really a big one.
Speaker 9: Was it.
Speaker 8: It wasn't a big one. And then in fact, that
Speaker 8: actually happened again yesterday. So there were last week there
Speaker 8: were two outages with Microsoft, you know, with different products
Speaker 8: that they have. You know, there was an a rainy
Speaker 8: group that came out that said that they were attributed
Speaker 8: to it. Microsoft has not released that yet and they've
Speaker 8: actually kept they keep saying that it was an internal issue.
Speaker 8: And then yesterday they had another outage that they said
Speaker 8: was because of a virtual assistant that they deployed that
Speaker 8: caused it. Just it was buggy and it took things
Speaker 8: down again. So in the last few weeks, Microsoft's had
Speaker 8: two outages. Now the thing that's important to note here
Speaker 8: is whether it's attributed to a threat actor or not,
Speaker 8: it's still It's something you and I've been talking about
Speaker 8: for a long time here is that so many organizations
Speaker 8: have put all their eggs in one basket or just
Speaker 8: a few, and so when these applications go down, your
Speaker 8: entire business halts. And so you know, the real big
Speaker 8: things to learn here from Microsoft is, you know, make
Speaker 8: sure that you've got redundancy in your organization. Now there
Speaker 8: are going to be and we'll talk about some more
Speaker 8: stuff here in a second, but there's going to be
Speaker 8: more and more attacks. So like we just we just
Speaker 8: know that that's going to happen, that will continue to
Speaker 8: happen even beyond the ramp, right, And and the one
Speaker 8: thing that's interesting here too is these attacks just don't happen.
Speaker 8: Like you know, with the Striker for instance, more than
Speaker 8: likely they were inside Striker's environment for months, more than likely.
Speaker 8: You know, I think we'll you know, we find that
Speaker 8: out with almost every breach. The average time and attackers
Speaker 8: in a company is two in eighty seven days. So
Speaker 8: they were in that environment more than likely. Right, if
Speaker 8: statistics go way before we.
Speaker 2: Even attack your RM Okay, so that makes sense. All
Speaker 2: this stuff's coming together. And as we said, you know,
Speaker 2: with the Iran war, Chris, you know, we're focused on
Speaker 2: missiles and bombs and terrorist attacks and things like that,
Speaker 2: of course, but the cyber ones to simply go by
Speaker 2: the wayside, you know, okay, strike and people have largely
Speaker 2: forgotten about that. It feels to me like we should
Speaker 2: be more concerned about this than actual physical bombs and
Speaker 2: missiles as opposed to cyber attacks.
Speaker 8: Well, I think we should, you know, and you know,
Speaker 8: we have a i would say, very very soft underbelly
Speaker 8: that a lot of people don't that aren't aware of.
Speaker 8: And when it comes to cybersecurity, you know, bombs and
Speaker 8: missiles in some ways that and that's more. You know,
Speaker 8: it's called kinetic warfare. That type of kinetic warfare in
Speaker 8: some ways is a distraction in a lot of ways
Speaker 8: now because if you really want to take a company
Speaker 8: down or a country down, you take down their core infrastructure, right,
Speaker 8: And that's what happened last couple of days with you know,
Speaker 8: Trump saying, hey, we're going to take out your nuclear,
Speaker 8: your power stations, and Rand's like, okay, cool, we'll take
Speaker 8: out your water and your power.
Speaker 6: So it's it is a it is a it is
Speaker 6: a big.
Speaker 4: Strength game, you know.
Speaker 2: Okay, good Chris and I heis here, CEO of Cincinnati
Speaker 2: based Vigilant Cybersecurity, on the show, kind of rehashing what
Speaker 2: happened with Striker the cyber tech. A couple of weeks ago,
Speaker 2: we had the Microsoft outage that affected a lot of people,
Speaker 2: but briefly and you've done some research here that that
Speaker 2: indicates the worst is yet to come and has to
Speaker 2: do with something called GitHub. And GitHub is basically if
Speaker 2: you have Google Cloud or one Drive, and you know
Speaker 2: everything stored to cloud. Basically it's the cloud of computer code.
Speaker 2: It's where all the programmers put their code in the cloud.
Speaker 2: And that has been compromised.
Speaker 8: So and I want to be really clear here and carefully.
Speaker 8: The GitHub itself great platform. It is an amazing place
Speaker 8: that allows developers put code there, both private code and
Speaker 8: public code. Get up itself hasn't been compromised the and
Speaker 8: and I also want to say that the open source
Speaker 8: community is a huge community that enables developers to develop
Speaker 8: applications and get them out there so people can use them.
Speaker 8: And there's so many people that develop software for free
Speaker 8: it's been countless hours doing that. Now, what what we
Speaker 8: found so that this happened about three weeks ago. We
Speaker 8: saw this this small story pop up just in the community, uh,
Speaker 8: you know, the cyber community and a little bit on
Speaker 8: on on Instagram and things are not on Instagram but Twitter.
Speaker 8: About a company called Trivia. Now, Trivia is a security
Speaker 8: tool that is used by developers that once they they
Speaker 8: launch code, they use this tool to develop it. Because
Speaker 8: a lot of people that develop software on that put
Speaker 8: it up on GitHub that's open source. There're those small people,
Speaker 8: you know, small teams, so they use these other applications
Speaker 8: to scan them what happened. So when you do that,
Speaker 8: because you have small teams, you're trying to do all this.
Speaker 8: There are these things called actions. What actions are is
Speaker 8: basically automation. So if I deployed new software, those actions
Speaker 8: that automation will kick off to do a whole bunch
Speaker 8: of different things. Right now, the way that open source
Speaker 8: software works is someone will develop a piece of software
Speaker 8: and then other people think it's cool and they'll fork it,
Speaker 8: or they'll they'll they'll take that software and build on
Speaker 8: top of it. And so you can have a single
Speaker 8: piece of software that might have millions of other applications
Speaker 8: built on top of it, and these could be they
Speaker 8: could be hard monitors, they could be whatever right that's
Speaker 8: out there.
Speaker 6: So so when.
Speaker 8: This came across, something that didn't feel right, so I
Speaker 8: started doing a bunch of research. My team started doing
Speaker 8: a bunch of research. We took some of our code
Speaker 8: in our applications and actually made it made it into
Speaker 8: a scanner that we released for free.
Speaker 4: It's called runner.
Speaker 8: Guard, but basically what we did started scanning of top
Speaker 8: fifty thousand used applications out on GitHub to fifty thousand repositories,
Speaker 8: and we found that in this Trivia attack too. What
Speaker 8: happened was this attacker took over some authentication tokens and
Speaker 8: they then implemented code into Trivia's the security ski inner's
Speaker 8: actual code, so they broke through into GitHub uploaded state
Speaker 8: code that had vulnerabilities in it. That code then got
Speaker 8: spread through these actions to thousands and thousands of other
Speaker 8: applications that Trivia used. So if you used Triviy, more
Speaker 8: than likely your open source code was infected with malware.
Speaker 8: Over the last couple of weeks. Then they came back
Speaker 8: to Trivia and attacked them again with more of these
Speaker 8: vulnerabilities that Trivia had a second time, they did it
Speaker 8: a third time, and then literally last couple of days,
Speaker 8: they defaced their entire webing. So we looked into this,
Speaker 8: We're like, man, if Trivia's vulnerable to this, who else
Speaker 8: is scan? Fifty thousand repos? Twenty thousand, two hundred and
Speaker 8: sixty five repos are vulnerable to the exact same attack.
Speaker 8: That's one hundred and ninety two thousand vulnerabilities. And the
Speaker 8: scary part about it is on top of those twenty
Speaker 8: thousand repos.
Speaker 6: Remember I said, it's like an upside down tumid.
Speaker 8: Right, five hundred and ninety million projects are vulnerable.
Speaker 2: Way, five hundred ninety million projects. Five hundred and ninety
Speaker 2: million projects. That's yeah, that's pretty much all the projects, say,
Speaker 2: all the projects, right, all the projects.
Speaker 10: It's a lot of.
Speaker 4: Projects projects And so what's so?
Speaker 5: All?
Speaker 3: Right?
Speaker 2: So that's infected? And is this just Iran doing this?
Speaker 2: Is it Iraqi hackers? Bangladeshi and they're all organized on telegram?
Speaker 2: I guess that's where they.
Speaker 8: Yeah, so those are and those are vulnerable projects. So
Speaker 8: those are not projects that have been compromised that we
Speaker 8: know of yet now highly likely that they have because
Speaker 8: if they found trivia, they've gone and kicked off some
Speaker 8: of these and these other reposts. Now we've been scanning,
Speaker 8: We've been, we've been notifying, We've been you know, I
Speaker 8: have not slept much, you know, in the last few weeks.
Speaker 8: You know, when you and I spoke last week, I
Speaker 8: had literally been up the entire night. A few members
Speaker 8: for our team as well. Because this is a big deal.
Speaker 8: Is that these companies. There's two things that have to happen.
Speaker 8: One is companies that develop open source software need to
Speaker 8: validate whether or not they have these vulnerabilities. And Scott
Speaker 8: it's it's literally a three minute fix. It's a three
Speaker 8: minute fix.
Speaker 4: Gotcha.
Speaker 2: Yeah, christ heis is here CEO of since they based
Speaker 2: vision and cybersecurity. You know, we're worried about missile attacks
Speaker 2: and Loana wolf attacks with Iran in the Middle East,
Speaker 2: and we really need to be concerned more about cyber attacks.
Speaker 2: We saw what happens Striker, the medical device company Microsoft
Speaker 2: three sixty five outage, and now Chris and his team
Speaker 2: at vigilant As uncovered something huge and the depository, the
Speaker 2: cloud for.
Speaker 4: Code called GitHub has.
Speaker 2: Been compromised to a degree, not itself but one of
Speaker 2: the And so we're talking pretty much all these projects,
Speaker 2: which is in the tens of hundreds of millions, have
Speaker 2: all been compromised with this malicious code and malicious software.
Speaker 2: And so let me bring it to well the potentially
Speaker 2: potentially potentially, But I mean, they don't do it just
Speaker 2: to go, hey, we're kicking the tires on this, and
Speaker 2: this is what you found. And there's other cybersecurity firms
Speaker 2: and experts that are doing the same thing. Here's where
Speaker 2: it comes to the whoa scary part. So there's this
Speaker 2: group called apt Iran which may be part of this
Speaker 2: whole thing you're talking about. They claim that they caused
Speaker 2: an explosion to kill a thirty year old father in
Speaker 2: Nebraska last year. Fremont, Nebraska last year. Friends and family said, well,
Speaker 2: friends and family, I'm reading the story. Your friends of
Speaker 2: themly confirmed that the identity two girls killed at a
Speaker 2: biofields place. So the dad was there, third year old
Speaker 2: dad was working and his daughter were there with him
Speaker 2: and the biofield there's an explosion of bioicles but killed
Speaker 2: all three of them. And Iranian hackers have taken responsibility
Speaker 2: for it, and so that does Now, if you're the government,
Speaker 2: you go out, we want to admit that that's possible
Speaker 2: that the Iranians caused this to happen and killed three
Speaker 2: people to a man is a father and his two girls.
Speaker 4: You certainly don't want that getting out. You do, and
Speaker 4: you don't, right. I think it's I think as.
Speaker 8: A you know, I was, yeah, well, we won't talk
Speaker 8: about that, but basically.
Speaker 4: Yeah, you're doing you you don't exactly so censored.
Speaker 8: Because ultimately, you know, you have to inform the public
Speaker 8: of what's really going on, because the danger is the speculation.
Speaker 4: Right, right, that's the danger.
Speaker 8: The danger is the you know, because you know, the
Speaker 8: conspiracies happen when people know something's off and the data
Speaker 8: is just enough to tell them that it's off, but
Speaker 8: they don't know how to explain it, and so they
Speaker 8: make up and that's where conspiracy or so so I
Speaker 8: think I think the US government has to do a
Speaker 8: much better job of talking about what's actually happening so
Speaker 8: the public doesn't freak out as much. Now, you know,
Speaker 8: we talked two years ago about the colonial attack, right,
Speaker 8: and we talked about then that the Colonial pipeline attack
Speaker 8: was more of a test and that's what I believe
Speaker 8: it was. Yeah, yeah, because when they took over that
Speaker 8: one thing people don't know is inside of a pipeline
Speaker 8: are these sensors. And if you can get access to
Speaker 8: those sensors, which you know colonial said that the attackers didn't,
Speaker 8: but if you get access to those sensors, you can
Speaker 8: actually heat them up and explode a pipeline. And so
Speaker 8: so we just have to be aware that as a
Speaker 8: country we're very vulnerable and we need to be we
Speaker 8: need to be pointing our attention to making sure we're
Speaker 8: less vulnerable. Gotcha, he is Chris and I high CEO
Speaker 8: at Vigilant Cybersecurity. And now you know, thanks again for
Speaker 8: the time, buddy, I appreciate it.
Speaker 4: Got I mean anytime.
Speaker 2: Yeah, lone wolves and missiles. Yeah, where we got an
Speaker 2: eye out with the cyber stuff. Man, that that's going
Speaker 2: to be the big one we are due. I hate
Speaker 2: to say it, but a cyber nine to eleven is coming.
Speaker 2: It's coming. Maybe not today, maybe not tomorrow, maybe not
Speaker 2: weeks and we were a month, but soon it's coming.
Speaker 2: Scott Sloan Show, seven hundred w O Tuesday Morning with
Speaker 2: Sloan Here seven hundred WWE countdown is on the opening day.
Speaker 2: I'll be live at Holy Grail Banks starting at nine
Speaker 2: a m. I always love rolling up on Thursday morning,
Speaker 2: Opening day and seeing the long line of potential drunks
Speaker 2: lined up outside. I can't wait wind up, start dragging
Speaker 2: at nine o'clock in the morning. That is fan flippantastic
Speaker 2: right there, and I'm right there with you too. So
Speaker 2: we'll be live all day long, taking new first pitch
Speaker 2: at four to ten here on the Home of the
Speaker 2: Red seven hundred ww as. The Boston Red Sox are
Speaker 2: in town and they will travel well. And if you
Speaker 2: think the price of admission is too high you can't
Speaker 2: get a ticket, just wait a day, wait till Friday,
Speaker 2: because it'll be immeasurably cheaper. We go nuts for opening day.
Speaker 2: Now if the weather's bad, it all looks like it's
Speaker 2: gonna be good, so we'll be fine. But typically you
Speaker 2: have a little bit of rain or it's cold, you
Speaker 2: start to thin up by like the fourth fifth inning
Speaker 2: here in Cincinnati, Ohio. But good news is much cheaper
Speaker 2: ticket and maybe better better conditions for the Don't forget
Speaker 2: they play one hundred and sixty one games after this.
Speaker 2: Are you prepared as well? They would say, are you prepared?
Speaker 2: What is the biggest threat to our national security? Would
Speaker 2: you say it is the border, which we've done a
Speaker 2: great job closing to some degree, But would you agree
Speaker 2: that that is the biggest threat to national security? I
Speaker 2: would say, no is the biggest threat to our national security.
Speaker 2: The straight of Hormuz gas prices, and in particular Iran.
Speaker 2: I would say no is the biggest threat to our
Speaker 2: national security. Our debt, that's a bingo.
Speaker 4: Right now.
Speaker 2: We have surpassed the thirty eight trillion dollar debt mark
Speaker 2: in America. The debt expected to climb over fifty four
Speaker 2: trillion over the next ten years. We're now in the
Speaker 2: territory that we haven't seen since nineteen forty, since the
Speaker 2: advent of World War Two. And meanwhile, debt held by
Speaker 2: the public jumped from ninety nine percent of the GDP
Speaker 2: to one hundred and sixteen percent of economic output is
Speaker 2: the target for twenty thirty four, and almost three times
Speaker 2: as high. They's tread an increase speaks volumes about how
Speaker 2: quickly things are spiraling out of control. Talk about the
Speaker 2: debt spiral before because there is a limit to how
Speaker 2: much any debt a government can accumulate before a debt
Speaker 2: spiral begins because the fear of default causes interest rates
Speaker 2: to get higher and higher, which are trying to keep low,
Speaker 2: and another interest rate cut coming. I believe we'll talk
Speaker 2: to Andy Shaeffer about this coming up in about an hour,
Speaker 2: but I think he's going to say, yeah, they paused,
Speaker 2: but there's gonna be another one coming.
Speaker 4: But they're going to pret sudents.
Speaker 2: Interests are gonna start to go back up, which causes
Speaker 2: higher deficits and more debt because you have to borrow
Speaker 2: more money because you're paying higher interest rates. The interest
Speaker 2: rates go up and you borrow more money, and that
Speaker 2: is the debt spiral that we're facing right now. And
Speaker 2: the big question is can we stomach what is going
Speaker 2: to be needed to write the ship? And I say no,
Speaker 2: not right now. Do you really want your taxes to
Speaker 2: go up? Do you want to get less benefits and
Speaker 2: pay more? No one does. And politicians know this, and
Speaker 2: they're savvy, and that's why we've ignored this. The Treasury
Speaker 2: just released their fiscal twenty twenty five report, not not
Speaker 2: long ago, and we have six trillion dollars, just six
Speaker 2: point six trillion, but six trillion and assets.
Speaker 4: What are our liabilities?
Speaker 2: Because if they teach you this in high school, you
Speaker 2: have assets, which is the positive. You have liabilities, which
Speaker 2: is a negative. And if your positives are more than
Speaker 2: your negatives, you're in good shape. But if your negatives
Speaker 2: are more than your positives, you ain't a good shape.
Speaker 2: Six trillion on assets, forty eight trillion in liabilities. Let
Speaker 2: me say that again in a different way. We are
Speaker 2: negative forty one point seven two trillion right now, and
Speaker 2: that's up a couple trillion for in the whole winter
Speaker 2: a year ago. And that doesn't include things like Social Security.
Speaker 2: That doesn't include Medicare. Those are funded obligations, those are
Speaker 2: tracked separately. Those jumped over ten trillion dollars in a
Speaker 2: single year. Medicare Part B alone accounts for almost seven
Speaker 2: trillion of the surge. He added all together one hundred
Speaker 2: and thirty six trillion in total federal obligations. That's five
Speaker 2: times I said, five times the size of the entire
Speaker 2: US economy. So the analogy was like, is okay, I
Speaker 2: don't understand these number.
Speaker 4: I don't understand I don't know trillions. I don't know
Speaker 4: how many zeros. That is I don't know.
Speaker 2: I know, that's a hell of a lot of money.
Speaker 2: That's that's actually beyond a hell of it. Here's a
Speaker 2: hell of a lot of money.
Speaker 1: And away over here.
Speaker 2: When it comes to the deficit, I don't even know
Speaker 2: how to count that high. But from an analogy standpoint,
Speaker 2: to make it about your household, take eight zeros, take
Speaker 2: away eight zeros to turn federal finances into household budget.
Speaker 2: So just take the zeros all out of this. So
Speaker 2: if you earn fifty two thousand dollars, your household is
Speaker 2: spending seventy three thousand, which means you're running up twenty
Speaker 2: thousand dollars in new debt every year, and you're now
Speaker 2: currently one point three million underwater. That's uncle Sam, that's
Speaker 2: how we bid. Just take all those zeros off, and
Speaker 2: that's if you ran your household that way. I'm making
Speaker 2: fifty two, I'm spending seventy three. That's a deficit of
Speaker 2: twenty thousand dollars every year. And now it's gone on
Speaker 2: so long, we're about a million three underwater. Might as
Speaker 2: well just keep spending into oblivion here. The only thing
Speaker 2: is you can declare bankruptcy. We really can't do that.
Speaker 2: We really can't do that, and we can't really even
Speaker 2: tell you if the books are accurate, partly because well,
Speaker 2: things like the Pentagon, their finances are a mess, and
Speaker 2: that is a substantial amount of our federal deficit. And
Speaker 2: we're you know, there's two bills to address this right now.
Speaker 2: There's the Federal Commission Act that would force a public
Speaker 2: reckoning with hard choices on taxes and spending. There's one
Speaker 2: a resolution in the House. Another one that calls for
Speaker 2: a constitutional convention to propose a balanced budget amendment modeled
Speaker 2: on Switzerland. Some I'm called the debt break because they're
Speaker 2: in trouble, but the numbers are real. The financial report
Speaker 2: was released just a few days ago by the Treasury
Speaker 2: and it's six trillion in assets, forty seven point seven
Speaker 2: eight liabilities. That is, by every measure, upside down. And
Speaker 2: no one is talking about this. It's like, yeah, well
Speaker 2: that's how we run the show here.
Speaker 3: Are you?
Speaker 2: Are you happy with that? I'm, for one, not happy
Speaker 2: with it. I'm nervous about my future, but because I
Speaker 2: plan to live another thirty years, planning on and actually
Speaker 2: doing it are two different things. But I were about
Speaker 2: my kids you probably write your kids, maybe grand kids
Speaker 2: come along, something like that, and we just it's not sustainable. Now,
Speaker 2: are we insolvent? America is a dead beat nation? We are,
Speaker 2: but are we insolvent? And that's not what the Treasury
Speaker 2: you just describe this therein report never uses this word.
Speaker 2: And this is more like private sector insolvency, almost like
Speaker 2: the household analogy.
Speaker 4: I just gave you the key distinction.
Speaker 2: There is like a company the US can taxi can borrow,
Speaker 2: you know, the US we can borrow against our own
Speaker 2: currency and theoretically print money. It doesn't mean that the
Speaker 2: trajectory isn't alarming. It is, but you know, calling it insolvent,
Speaker 2: someone saying we're insolvent, it's okay, that's I think flame
Speaker 2: it a little bit here. But you know, if we're
Speaker 2: over the topic, call it we're insolvent. We're dead beats.
Speaker 4: We count are.
Speaker 2: You know we're burning through a trillion dollars every five months.
Speaker 2: That's twice the historic pace, and that should be disturbing
Speaker 2: to anyone listening, regardless of who you voted or didn't
Speaker 2: vote for. So roughly that's almost four hundred thousand dollars
Speaker 2: per American or more than four hundred thousand dollars per American. Actually,
Speaker 2: if you do it, I mean close enough, right, so
Speaker 2: your your original sin is four hundred thousand dollars. You know,
Speaker 2: it wasn't that long ago. We forgot about that. Moody's
Speaker 2: downgraded the United States because of our spending. Big beautiful
Speaker 2: bill came along and it drove the deficit even higher.
Speaker 2: What happened to doze, by the way, how did that
Speaker 2: work out? Did nothing? This is a crisis. Is a
Speaker 2: crisis for Republicans. This is a crisis for Democrats and
Speaker 2: independents and Libertarians and Green Party whomever, whatever it is
Speaker 2: you believe in or don't believe. And it's a problem
Speaker 2: for all of us. And all those entsies, particularly the
Speaker 2: Democrats and Republicans, got us to where we are right now.
Speaker 2: We're not holding their feet to the fire. And there's
Speaker 2: going to be a reckoning coming up. And we talk
Speaker 2: about this all the time. The reckoning is going to
Speaker 2: be if we get flipped around, if we get upside
Speaker 2: down and the interest rates start going up up and up,
Speaker 2: and we have to borrow more money just to keep
Speaker 2: the lights on. I mean, we saw what the EU
Speaker 2: went through. Certain nations. We've seen other nations go on.
Speaker 2: It is going to be a crisis of magnitude because
Speaker 2: we are, of course, we're the world economy in the
Speaker 2: United States of America. And as you'll hear from Andy
Speaker 2: Schaeffer at eleven thirty five, if you look at the
Speaker 2: economy's doing pretty well right now. But even Wall Street
Speaker 2: has ignored the debt bump issue entirely. We're not buying
Speaker 2: our debt to keep our interests at low. Inflation is
Speaker 2: going to be what it is in the future. It's
Speaker 2: going to go up because the central banks people won't
Speaker 2: be buying our debt anymore. It's over a trillion dollars
Speaker 2: in debt. Service, Medicare is up there. Defense is a
Speaker 2: trillion dollars a trillion. We're not gonna get real we
Speaker 2: need defense, but you know, do we need things like
Speaker 2: a golden dome? And look how much money another two
Speaker 2: hundred billion for Iran that apparently I guess a few
Speaker 2: days ago is wiped out. But now we're negotiating with
Speaker 2: them like we're not getting a straight story to Washington.
Speaker 4: Is a problem.
Speaker 2: Veterans, benefits and services, those are things that I'm not
Speaker 2: saying so just as we are. But you talk about Medicare, defense,
Speaker 2: veterans benefits, debt service, those things are fixed. We can't
Speaker 2: change those, and those are supposed to Well, we're gon
Speaker 2: we're gonna change everything with Doge didn't change anything. It's
Speaker 2: about what six percent of the deficit, and we're already
Speaker 2: burned through that money. So this is a crisis that
Speaker 2: at some point it is going to have to be
Speaker 2: addressed in Congress. It's going to happen sooner rather than later.
Speaker 2: But is it astounding to you that we have largely
Speaker 2: become insolvent for lack of better terms, are completely upside down?
Speaker 2: And this report was issued three days ago, and I
Speaker 2: think I'm the only one talking about it. You know,
Speaker 2: I don't know if you ignore it, does it just go?
Speaker 6: Wait?
Speaker 2: How does that usually work? No one wants to hear
Speaker 2: about this. No one wants to go, well, okay, what's
Speaker 2: your solution, smart ass? Well, the solution to be we're
Speaker 2: going to have to figure out what to cut. There's
Speaker 2: going to have to be some some tests for retire reason. God,
Speaker 2: you know, we run commercials all the time about protecting
Speaker 2: your social security and like aus, what that's going to
Speaker 2: have to be on the table all of those entitlement programs,
Speaker 2: and they are entitlement programs. No, no, they're not intolments.
Speaker 2: I work for that right something you're entitled too as
Speaker 2: I am. I'm getting to that age or I got
Speaker 2: to start looking at this stuff is going to be
Speaker 2: available and what's got to go away? How do we
Speaker 2: how do we cut spending. It's got to come from
Speaker 2: all ears. It's got to come from and Totnement's got
Speaker 2: to come from defense, it's got to come from medicare
Speaker 2: all these things, and we're going to pay more and
Speaker 2: get less.
Speaker 4: And that's the reality.
Speaker 2: I think the future of the definition of a patriot
Speaker 2: is not going to be someone who's wearing a tri
Speaker 2: cornered hat and we the People T shirt or having
Speaker 2: a million bumper stickers about the environment and other things
Speaker 2: in the back of your volvo. What it's going to
Speaker 2: be is people going, Okay, I got to pay more
Speaker 2: and get less. To me, that that's what patriots in
Speaker 2: the future going to be. It's an economic patriot. There's
Speaker 2: just no two ways about it. We're spending like drunk
Speaker 2: sailors and no one's At some time the chairs are
Speaker 2: going to the music and the stop and I'm gonna
Speaker 2: be all that chair is the problem here? How they
Speaker 2: get to Mary Mountain Richard on Scotsland Show, Good Morning,
Speaker 2: How are you.
Speaker 10: Ye, Scott guye to talk to you?
Speaker 4: Thanks for checking in.
Speaker 10: I wouldn't.
Speaker 3: I don't know.
Speaker 10: I just hate to disagree with you, but I don't
Speaker 10: think the national debt is our biggest national security issue,
Speaker 10: mainly because maybe because when you have there is no
Speaker 10: real national debt. We issue debt in our own currency.
Speaker 10: The US government can never go bankrupt. I got to
Speaker 10: ask you one question, who are we in debt too? Banks?
Speaker 10: What do they use our currency that our Treasury department?
Speaker 2: Well, I would say the banks, but who's who's controlling
Speaker 2: that debt? It'd be countries like China.
Speaker 10: China. Well, we just don't pay China, we.
Speaker 4: Don't have okay, So what does that do then? Okay?
Speaker 2: So but then we still have to borrow money, right?
Speaker 2: What will that do to the interest?
Speaker 10: We don't have to borrow money, and we can create it.
Speaker 10: We create our own currency. If you if you were
Speaker 10: your kitchen table and you're you're paying your bills, you
Speaker 10: have to pay your bills. You cannot create your own currency.
Speaker 2: I understand that we have that we have the ability
Speaker 2: to print money, which we have, but the problem is this,
Speaker 2: the more you print, the more it devalues the face
Speaker 2: of that currency. Now where the world currency reserve? What
Speaker 2: happens when we get to the point where where there's
Speaker 2: a stronger economy, and you know, there's there's always been
Speaker 2: a fight like, well, the greenback is the current world
Speaker 2: reserve currency.
Speaker 4: If this keeps up, it's not going to be in
Speaker 4: the future.
Speaker 10: US economy is by far the world's biggest, no question
Speaker 10: that there. There is nobody that's even close to it.
Speaker 10: And if they don't want to do business with us,
Speaker 10: then they're going to have a real problem. So there
Speaker 10: you go. And if and if worst comes to words, okay,
Speaker 10: we just an issue a new currency if we had to,
Speaker 10: you know, you based on the amount of productivity in
Speaker 10: your economy. There is no national debt. It's made up
Speaker 10: and that's a made up thing.
Speaker 2: Got so so so anyway, but we all agree on
Speaker 2: this that the interest rates will go up.
Speaker 10: Correct, they could do that, But we can also create
Speaker 10: a new currency. Sure, Department and in Control.
Speaker 2: America can do that. But what about the companies? All
Speaker 2: this this economic engine of America. The companies that borrow money,
Speaker 2: what about their interest rates?
Speaker 10: Their interest rates? We can create a new currency. Well,
Speaker 10: so we can set it up. We don't have to
Speaker 10: have We are not we're not beholden to big banks
Speaker 10: if we don't want to be. We can create our
Speaker 10: own currency based on the size of our economy if
Speaker 10: we want to. There is no national debt. It's a
Speaker 10: made up thing. And you know we can agree to
Speaker 10: disagree on.
Speaker 2: Yeah, sure, sure, sure, But the solution is, like we
Speaker 2: did what that point.
Speaker 10: You have a point about printing too much money. You
Speaker 10: can't just willing really do that because it will create inflation.
Speaker 10: You are correct on that, but we have the ability
Speaker 10: to control that.
Speaker 3: You know.
Speaker 2: So, but that but that obligation, I guess I'll let
Speaker 2: you go because I got some other clulture. That obligation
Speaker 2: doesn't go away. You know, you're saying, Okay, we replaced
Speaker 2: a dollar with a new national currency or digital dollar,
Speaker 2: whatever it is. There's shock waves from that. You know,
Speaker 2: we've got the thirty eight trillion dollars debt crisis. But
Speaker 2: then you're talking about that transition, which I don't trust
Speaker 2: the government to do. Now you're talking about hyper inflation.
Speaker 2: It could wipe savings out overnight that happened in Argentina
Speaker 2: for example, and the collapse of the preserve currency are
Speaker 2: held in the US dollars. A switch would destabilize the
Speaker 2: central banks worldwide in the crash would I mean, I
Speaker 2: think it'd be an implosion, is what it is. It
Speaker 2: just I don't think your arguing makes sense to me anyway.
Speaker 2: Maybe somebody does, but I appreciate the debate. I got
Speaker 2: to get a news update in we're running little bit late.
Speaker 2: News is coming up in about seven minutes here. And
Speaker 2: then Greg lost them from Buckeye. Well they took oh yesterday,
Speaker 2: they took away your THG beverages. Now they want to
Speaker 2: take away more of your money from your house. In
Speaker 2: light of all of the property taxes you're paying, Ohio,
Speaker 2: they want another tax on what you do in your house.
Speaker 4: We'll explain next on the big one. Hang on, I
Speaker 4: want to.
Speaker 1: Be an American idiot. He's got on seven hundred WW.
Speaker 7: So what's sustainable Ohio taking away from you today?
Speaker 2: Yesterday it was THC drinks, you know, because that's killed
Speaker 2: in a lot of people share today. How about some
Speaker 2: higher taxes are you a fan of higher taxes. I'm
Speaker 2: a big fan of higher taxes. Oh, the Ohio legislature,
Speaker 2: the General Assembly is moving to tax you, mister and
Speaker 2: missus homeowner if you decide that you're going to rent
Speaker 2: out your home like Airbnb or verbo for a few days.
Speaker 2: Seems to me like a raw deal. You know, new taxes.
Speaker 2: There's no protections in here. Local governments can still ban
Speaker 2: you from doinging entirely. Doesn't feel like free enterprise to me.
Speaker 2: Joining the show from the Buckeye Institute in Columbus is
Speaker 2: Greg Laws and Greg.
Speaker 6: Welcome, thanks for having me on.
Speaker 4: We have this, as you.
Speaker 2: Know, being in Ohio, you know we have this insane
Speaker 2: property tax burden going on right now, some people paying
Speaker 2: three hundred percent more property taxes. There's a move to
Speaker 2: eliminate property taxes entirely. And now this is this a
Speaker 2: good idea?
Speaker 6: Well, it's certainly not a good idea to just tax people.
Speaker 6: There's an argument that in some areas, some that don't
Speaker 6: have like as many hotels, especially some rural areas, that
Speaker 6: they that they still have what they call visitor and bureau.
Speaker 6: Visitor bureau can into with tourism, that they that there
Speaker 6: may be a need for something. But the concern we
Speaker 6: have is that there are several bills out there, and
Speaker 6: one of them, in particular, unfortunately, House Bill one sixty one,
Speaker 6: is just a tax bill. It just applies the logic
Speaker 6: tax to an Airbnb or verbo or any of these
Speaker 6: short term rentals. But it does nothing about what is
Speaker 6: a growing problem in Ohio, which is that local governments
Speaker 6: are oftentimes preventing people from doing it. They're putting bands
Speaker 6: on airbnbs and verbos. That's something that is happening under
Speaker 6: the home rules stuff. I think we talked about home
Speaker 6: earlier before, and we think that's a terrible situation. So
Speaker 6: you know, I'll tell you this. You can't just flat
Speaker 6: tax on something and then just give keep government with
Speaker 6: the power to just continue to ban things. It really
Speaker 6: is violating people's personal property rights. And we think that's
Speaker 6: a bad idea.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I guess you're a local minsipality. If you have
Speaker 2: a problem with the your HOA can ban people from
Speaker 2: doing that, and you sign your rights away when you
Speaker 2: do that. You buy property there, here's the rules. You
Speaker 2: want to move there or not. Okay, I can't buy
Speaker 2: you know, I own rental property. There's someones I own
Speaker 2: that are part of an hoa where you can't rent
Speaker 2: them out. Okay, fine, great, but I knew that going
Speaker 2: ahead of time, coming back and then taxing people for
Speaker 2: something they're already paying taxes on seems criminal to me.
Speaker 2: You're already paying the property tax. I got to pay
Speaker 2: you more tax because I'm renting it out.
Speaker 6: Well, the argument is that you have hotels that already
Speaker 6: have these taxes that are apply to them. I and
Speaker 6: the hotels have have for a long time made the
Speaker 6: case that with the advent of all these new things
Speaker 6: short term rentals, that they're being taxed, but that's essentially
Speaker 6: an unfair competition, and that it's making sure that they
Speaker 6: don't have the revenue to go back into again some
Speaker 6: of these various marketing pages and stuff that happens in
Speaker 6: different counties for tourism. So that's the argument that's there.
Speaker 6: And you know, first of all, we don't like new taxes, guys.
Speaker 6: It's always been against new taxes. But what I testified
Speaker 6: last week to a committee on this in the Ohio
Speaker 6: House Representatives, the argument that we made is we certainly
Speaker 6: don't like taxes if you're not going to make sure
Speaker 6: that people are protected. And I think this is the
Speaker 6: thing that it's so to me, we just about what's
Speaker 6: happening across the high most governments is these bands. I
Speaker 6: get people are worried about having a party house in
Speaker 6: their neighborhoods that isn't under control, And there's several things
Speaker 6: that deal with this. First of all, you can still
Speaker 6: have and should still be able to have local nuisance
Speaker 6: laws and things like that. If people are doing crazy
Speaker 6: stuff or you know, having animal house happening and then
Speaker 6: you know next door to you, you know, there's ways
Speaker 6: to address it. By the way, folks like Airbnb have
Speaker 6: policies for the platform where if you start doing things
Speaker 6: like that, you're rinning it out and you really maybe
Speaker 6: one time you can get away that, but you know,
Speaker 6: it's like I think it's like a three times and
Speaker 6: you're out sort of thing, right where if this is
Speaker 6: a recurring pattern and you're not taking responsibility in your
Speaker 6: neighborhood with your property, they can't use their platform anymore
Speaker 6: to rent it out. Yeah, so we have protections for people.
Speaker 6: We shouldn't be banning them. We certainly shouldn't be taxing
Speaker 6: people and then not guaranteeing that you still can have
Speaker 6: the right to do what you want to with hero.
Speaker 2: From Yeah, I want to circle back on the zero
Speaker 2: protections argument that you made there, Greg Lawson, and I
Speaker 2: think that's true. You know, we have nuisance laws in Cincinnati,
Speaker 2: and I could never figure this out. Is if you
Speaker 2: own property in Cincinnati and you rent it out and
Speaker 2: people are you know, either Airbnb or verbal or just
Speaker 2: rental just you know, regular rental, long term ratl short tomorrow,
Speaker 2: if those people are causing a problem and then you know,
Speaker 2: causing the neighborhood, maybe racing up and down the street,
Speaker 2: or there's trash all over the place, or playing in
Speaker 2: loud music right their nuisance, the city of Cincinnati makes
Speaker 2: somehow the landlord eventually responsible for that. Like no, if
Speaker 2: you're an adult and you're renting property and you are
Speaker 2: doing stuff like that, that that that's on the city,
Speaker 2: that's on law enforce meant to cite that person. That
Speaker 2: shouldn't be on the landlord. I mean, if they're in
Speaker 2: there dealing drugs and I know about it, maybe a
Speaker 2: different story. But if they're just a nuisance, that's the
Speaker 2: individual's responsibility. I you know, I don't get a ticket,
Speaker 2: speeding ticket because you know, my son uses my car,
Speaker 2: let's say. And that was the argument with speed cameras obviously,
Speaker 2: is you're citing me for something I can't control.
Speaker 4: That's that's on them, give them the ticket.
Speaker 6: We should the people who are doing the offense of people.
Speaker 6: That should be right. Both that's the law and that's
Speaker 6: exactly right. That's what should happen. Now if you're again
Speaker 6: doing this on an ongoing basis where you're not taking
Speaker 6: care to bet the people that you have coming in
Speaker 6: and this isn't you know, an isolated incident that's happening
Speaker 6: all the time. I think there may be a little
Speaker 6: bit of a different argument there because at that point
Speaker 6: you are sort of not taking the responsibility with your
Speaker 6: own property at that point, and then you are having
Speaker 6: an avergine impact from your neighbors and stuff. But the
Speaker 6: point that it is disturbing about this is when when
Speaker 6: you make these blanket terminations by the local governments just
Speaker 6: not doing which is actually I think really remarkable, when
Speaker 6: you because you make curlier we have this profit taxes
Speaker 6: and we have local governments who should be scared quite
Speaker 6: a bit about the prospects of that making the ballot.
Speaker 6: Whether it does or not, nobody can say for sure
Speaker 6: at this point because they haven't sumitted signatures for this
Speaker 6: constitucial limit. But if that happens, you never believe they're
Speaker 6: going to want to have some revenue. But you're gonna
Speaker 6: have a hard time having revenue by the time you
Speaker 6: start banning everybody from being able to do that thing. Yeah,
Speaker 6: it just makes no sense from so many different perspectives. Well,
Speaker 6: is it great?
Speaker 1: Great?
Speaker 4: Where does it end?
Speaker 2: I mean, like, if I'm I use my house, let's say,
Speaker 2: for my small business, do I have to pay an
Speaker 2: extra tax there?
Speaker 4: I don't know.
Speaker 2: My spouse is really good makes sourd o bread and
Speaker 2: she's selling some sourdough bread.
Speaker 6: Do I have to?
Speaker 2: I mean, where do I Wand with the taxation here,
Speaker 2: I'm already paying the damn property taxes we're you're too
Speaker 2: damn high, and now if I rent it out, I've
Speaker 2: got to pay even more. You mentioned too zero protections
Speaker 2: for the whole What does that mean the zero protection area.
Speaker 6: Well, we're basically saying that people have the right to
Speaker 6: be able to make decisions with what they want to
Speaker 6: do with their property. Obviously, with the reason. You know,
Speaker 6: you know, there are certain things where you can't let
Speaker 6: your properly go to the hell and a hand askt
Speaker 6: and stuff of that nature. But this whole notion, and
Speaker 6: it's happening in jurisdiction after jurisdiction where they can come
Speaker 6: in and stop it. And I harp on this point
Speaker 6: because this is not isolating what this isn't one or
Speaker 6: two jurisdictions, and it isn't just one or two places
Speaker 6: in the state. It's really it's all over the state
Speaker 6: the proportion, So it's not it's not just a regional phenomenon.
Speaker 6: And this is the problem that I see, which is
Speaker 6: local government, you know, kind of running them off with
Speaker 6: these things. Yeah, it's a it's actually a much bigger issue.
Speaker 6: I mean, there's there's a whole bunch of problems frankly
Speaker 6: with local government and II and I think I've molmented
Speaker 6: some of those in the past on your show, and
Speaker 6: I probably will again.
Speaker 4: We're on the same page.
Speaker 6: And this is just one more example of it. So
Speaker 6: you know, again, there's some bills that are out there,
Speaker 6: by the way that would have some degree, would would
Speaker 6: maybe do the tax, but would include prohibitions and preempt
Speaker 6: local government from being able to do the banning of
Speaker 6: the short term rentals.
Speaker 4: How do how does the home rule apply there?
Speaker 6: Though, well, I'm sure they'll sue uh and make an
Speaker 6: argument that that's violation. But if it's written the right way,
Speaker 6: the legislature does have the ability to write laws that
Speaker 6: are of statewide applicability. Now that's a little sometimes it's
Speaker 6: been in the eye of beholder, and there's been a
Speaker 6: lot of push and pull, frankly, between the General Assembly
Speaker 6: and local governments, especially in recent years, over many different things.
Speaker 6: There's been second amendment to issues. There's been issues like
Speaker 6: plastic bags, some jurisdictions way in the dand cracking and
Speaker 6: so there's all these various things that happened. But we've
Speaker 6: made the case of the buck ask that that the
Speaker 6: General simply have the right to be able to do preemption,
Speaker 6: because if you allow all these locals to prevent all
Speaker 6: sorts of different active short term rentals, it's certainly one
Speaker 6: of them. But you know, we're seeing this with data
Speaker 6: centers too now coming out, so we're seeing a lot
Speaker 6: of these things, and the General simply has acted in
Speaker 6: the past to say no, you can't do that. They
Speaker 6: and we think that under certain circumstances, that is an
Speaker 6: appropriate thing, because what you end up with is you
Speaker 6: end up with a you know, it's sort of a
Speaker 6: little bit of a joke to say it this way,
Speaker 6: but it's a crazy patchwork of different regulations and frusteristations.
Speaker 6: But that makes it hard to do different things. And
Speaker 6: it's one of the problems Ohio has, and at a
Speaker 6: mid Western state issue in general, because of a sort
Speaker 6: of the history there. But when you look at southern
Speaker 6: states and you look at Western states, and you look
Speaker 6: at states that are really growing with populations that are
Speaker 6: really expanding. You know, you can talk about the weather
Speaker 6: and stuff, and I'm sure that has some degree of influence,
Speaker 6: but it's taxes, it's regulations, and Kino taxes and regulations
Speaker 6: now are worse at the local level than they are
Speaker 6: at the state level. Well, that is something that less
Speaker 6: that you need to deal with.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, look look at it this way.
Speaker 2: Kathy Hochell, governor in New York State, she went on Campaigtrios, said, hey, listen,
Speaker 2: you know what, if you're a billionaire, if you've got
Speaker 2: all this money, we don't want you here unless you're
Speaker 2: going to pay your fair share. Well, guess what, I
Speaker 2: just saw a study where a huge number of them
Speaker 2: have moved to Texas, cal I think, Arizona, California, some
Speaker 2: some of California, don't know why, but to Texas primarily.
Speaker 2: And now she's she's begging those people to come back
Speaker 2: because they you know, she guys said I'm gonna screw.
Speaker 4: You when it comes to taxes. You should be paying
Speaker 4: your fair share.
Speaker 2: Well, guess what liberal Democrat or conservative Republican aside, they
Speaker 2: all moved out of the state and now they don't
Speaker 2: have enough money to pay for their what it is
Speaker 2: they want to do, the same thing would apply here.
Speaker 2: I mean Indiana, Florida and Arizona also do this as well,
Speaker 2: where they blocked local short term rental bands. And Ohio
Speaker 2: wants to be next. By the way, Greg Lawson's here
Speaker 2: from Buckeye Institute in Columbus as the state of Ohio
Speaker 2: yesterday took the THG drinks away today higher taxes a
Speaker 2: top of the insane property tax were paying. Now, if
Speaker 2: you want to rent out your home of the weekend
Speaker 2: as someone, they want to tax you and there's no
Speaker 2: protections there for you, basically meaning they're going to tax
Speaker 2: the activity and not protect your right to do it.
Speaker 2: And you know you could pay tax today and face
Speaker 2: a local band tomorrow in your state or in your
Speaker 2: township municipality. HOA is different because that's part of the
Speaker 2: deal when you buy something in an HOA. But Greg Lawson,
Speaker 2: I can't help but think back to all of these
Speaker 2: seismic shifts, these change agents that happened in the world
Speaker 2: back in the day when Uber and Lyft came along.
Speaker 2: I remember tax I remember the cab drivers, Like at
Speaker 2: CBG at the airport, we're up an arms saying wait, well,
Speaker 2: hold on just a second. If you have these independent
Speaker 2: people coming in not paying a tax, they're not paying
Speaker 2: all these fees and fares, what about our They wanted
Speaker 2: to protect their industry. I think the same thing is
Speaker 2: happening here with the rentals. This has got to be
Speaker 2: the hotel motel industry that pays an exorbited amount of taxes.
Speaker 2: Like every time we raise a tack, well we'll just
Speaker 2: add to the luxury check. We'll just add to the
Speaker 2: hotel motel tax on this. And when you get a
Speaker 2: hotel night for I don't know, one hundred and fifty bucks,
Speaker 2: you get the bill, and it's like, you know, almost
Speaker 2: two hundred dollars are probably more than two hundred because
Speaker 2: of the taxes added on here. I feel for the
Speaker 2: established business is like hotels, motels in this case taxes.
Speaker 2: I mean New York City alone, the price of a
Speaker 2: hack medallion, which basically is a transferable physical license plate
Speaker 2: that's a round circle to medallion and they attach it
Speaker 2: to the hood of a yellow cab in New York
Speaker 2: the cost of one of those medallions is now over
Speaker 2: a million dollars. So from a business perspective, it doesn't
Speaker 2: seem fair that they're competing with uber and left drivers
Speaker 2: who don't have to pay that exorbitant tax.
Speaker 4: I think this is the same model.
Speaker 6: Well, I think this is a broad That is a
Speaker 6: big question about taxation and what's a fair tax. Where
Speaker 6: everybody is and when you're mailing certain people, they're going
Speaker 6: to get very upset about the new entrance into the marketplace,
Speaker 6: and so they're going to you know, they prefer them
Speaker 6: to you know, not enter the marketplaces, but they certainly
Speaker 6: want them to do that. That's just where you start
Speaker 6: hearing about the level playing field argument, which on one
Speaker 6: hand is correct. That's an economic theory. It says it
Speaker 6: it's a right thing to do is to make sure
Speaker 6: that people that are similar kinds of businesses aren't being
Speaker 6: disproportionately impacted one versus another because of a specific rule
Speaker 6: or in taxation. You want it to be fair across
Speaker 6: the board. And so that's certainly the argument they're using.
Speaker 6: And I think you have to look at what are
Speaker 6: we doing with these revenues. I mean, we've had lodging
Speaker 6: tetch for a while, and unfortunately it's a sort of
Speaker 6: scene that the soapy allow counters like right, because what
Speaker 6: you're essentially saying is we're going to raise the revenue
Speaker 6: on the backs of people who don't necessarily live so
Speaker 6: that we can do that now, you know, I mean
Speaker 6: they that is the Florida certainly does do that with
Speaker 6: some of their taxes and stuff because we have a
Speaker 6: lot of tourism and stuff that comes through there.
Speaker 1: Uh.
Speaker 6: And so I get what the rationale is, but we
Speaker 6: need to be really careful how we think about this
Speaker 6: and when we're doing this, and you occasionally see bills
Speaker 6: and the or things and budget bills and stuff. They'll
Speaker 6: had an additional thing for one visitor Bereavers another Visitors Bureau,
Speaker 6: and I'm not trying to just brag on them. They
Speaker 6: can't help to raise awareness, do certain things to build
Speaker 6: the infrastructure to bring in concerts or conferences or what
Speaker 6: are sporting events and stuff like that. So there may
Speaker 6: be some rationale for some of that, but we need
Speaker 6: to be very careful when we're applying this and then
Speaker 6: when we start applaying it to new people. We need
Speaker 6: to really think about what we're doing and how we're
Speaker 6: spending the existing resources that we have.
Speaker 2: Greg Laws and Buckeye and watch out for it. It's
Speaker 2: House Bill one sixty one. Come in for more property texts,
Speaker 2: basically what this is all the best, Thanks again, Bud,
Speaker 2: I appreciate you.
Speaker 6: Thank you.
Speaker 2: We'll get a news update in here momentarily on the
Speaker 2: Big one seven hundred WW. This is why I wake
Speaker 2: up in the morning to see how we're going to
Speaker 2: get screwed the next day and then talk to you
Speaker 2: about it. Coming up next, Andy Schaeffer, we'll look at
Speaker 2: the other side of this thing. If you're hearing this goes,
Speaker 2: oh it's too much. Hold on just a second. I
Speaker 2: got some information for it. It's going to make you
Speaker 2: a little bit happier today despite all the craziness in
Speaker 2: the world.
Speaker 4: Simply money. Next seven hundred w.
Speaker 11: Do time to talk about money, how to make it,
Speaker 11: how to keep it, and how to keep others off
Speaker 11: your stack. This is all worth advice with Andy Schaeffer.
Speaker 2: All Right, I promised we had some hand news for
Speaker 2: your today, happy news today. And Andy, what happy news
Speaker 2: do we have today relative to your savings, your investment,
Speaker 2: your future, your retirement, your college fund, on all that stuff.
Speaker 4: Anything good, Give me something. Lead off with a good story.
Speaker 9: Okay, that sounds good, well fed. Sherman Powell spoke last week.
Speaker 9: The FOMC had their regular meeting, and one of the
Speaker 9: good things that came out of it, and you know,
Speaker 9: not all of it was good, but what he did
Speaker 9: say is that our growth is tracking a little bit
Speaker 9: higher this year than we previously thought. So, you know,
Speaker 9: in spite of everything that's going on and Iran, you know,
Speaker 9: we're looking at GDP growth this year about.
Speaker 4: Two point six percent.
Speaker 9: So there's something for you to start out with to
Speaker 9: get it going on a positive note.
Speaker 2: You know, earlier this morning I mentioned this, and it's true.
Speaker 2: You know, consumer sentiment is cratered. It's below the financial
Speaker 2: crisis and pandemic lows, and the economic perception is that
Speaker 2: things aren't good right now, and Democrats are way more
Speaker 2: negative on the economy Republicans under Biden were at this
Speaker 2: particular time, which shows you how the needle moves right,
Speaker 2: and I point it is early going. You know, if
Speaker 2: you start looking at things, if you start looking at
Speaker 2: the economy, it really the needle hasn't moved that much.
Speaker 2: While some of the parts of the puzzle may have changed.
Speaker 2: You know, gas prices, for example, are are going up, right,
Speaker 2: but that's off set by other things that really, whether
Speaker 2: it was Biden or Trump. If you look at the
Speaker 2: Coracon economic numbers that you're talking about here, not a
Speaker 2: lot has changed like that. It's it's not a speedboat,
Speaker 2: it's an ocean liner. The economy, that's right.
Speaker 9: And you know, furthermore, we saw the FOMC characterize unemployment
Speaker 9: as little changed as well. You know, we're looking at
Speaker 9: an unemployment rate to remain at about four point four percent. Now,
Speaker 9: obviously that's a little bit higher than it was last
Speaker 9: year or the year before, but historically that's really good.
Speaker 4: Scott, Yeah, one hundred percent.
Speaker 2: And you know there's a I think a truth social
Speaker 2: effect as well. A single social media post from President
Speaker 2: Trump sent oil prices down like fifteen dollars a barrel.
Speaker 2: The S and P was more than, you know, one
Speaker 2: two percent in two minutes. So it's like a lot
Speaker 2: of the investors are reacting to what he's putting out
Speaker 2: on social and that's crazy because normally we don't pay
Speaker 2: attention to that.
Speaker 4: Why is this different, Well, I think people do pay
Speaker 4: attention to it.
Speaker 9: You know, Normally a lot of investors react to headlines
Speaker 9: and a lot of minutia, and sometimes they can be
Speaker 9: irrational in nature. And obviously this isn't ideal with what
Speaker 9: we're going through with Iran. You know, there's a lot
Speaker 9: of fears from not only the citizens of the United States,
Speaker 9: but investors in general. And it all comes down to
Speaker 9: the straight over moves. You know, what does it look like?
Speaker 9: We're at war with Iran? You know, we continue to
Speaker 9: bomb over there. And basically what President Trump said is that, hey,
Speaker 9: we actually have some talks that are going on right now.
Speaker 9: So he said that he's going to suspend a lot
Speaker 9: of the bombing, particularly on the energy sites in Iran,
Speaker 9: and he said, hey, we're talking to them now. Interestingly,
Speaker 9: Iran came back and their parliamentary president basically said, you know,
Speaker 9: that's fake news, using a term that Trump always uses,
Speaker 9: and said that you know, we're not having any talks,
Speaker 9: but I do suspect that talks have been going on.
Speaker 9: Iran typically does. There's been examples of Iran delegates and
Speaker 9: United States delegates in the same hotel where they would
Speaker 9: have to change their schedules so it didn't appear that
Speaker 9: Iran was actually talking to the United States.
Speaker 4: So they have a history of this.
Speaker 9: So these five days are critical, and that's why we
Speaker 9: saw the market's rise significantly yesterday. If it starts to
Speaker 9: appear that we're going to have a resolution and the
Speaker 9: straight oh Hoordor moves starts to open up, you're going
Speaker 9: to see not only oil prices fall, which we saw
Speaker 9: yesterday they were somewhere in the low nineties, but they
Speaker 9: will continue to fall. And if you're out of the
Speaker 9: market at this point and we do come to an
Speaker 9: agreement with Iran, you're going to be left holding the back.
Speaker 6: Yeah.
Speaker 2: And as I mentioned before, you the data show's GDP
Speaker 2: growth you mentioned inflation waged unployment kind of identical to
Speaker 2: where we were last time before, it's pre Trump and
Speaker 2: now with Trump and the numbers haven't really changed, consumer
Speaker 2: sentiment keeps hitting new loads. Is that because we're bombarded
Speaker 2: by negative information all the time.
Speaker 9: That's part of it. But I also think it's the
Speaker 9: potential fear of what can happen if we don't rep
Speaker 9: this thing up in Iran right, and if it continues
Speaker 9: to delay and delay, and remember Iran is very good
Speaker 9: and negotiations and delaying to try to get what they want.
Speaker 9: If that continues on and we do start to see
Speaker 9: oil prices creep back up again, if they start to
Speaker 9: get over one hundred and twenty five dollars per barrel,
Speaker 9: that can have a long term impact on inflation. And
Speaker 9: certainly what we don't want to see is the FED
Speaker 9: have to reverse course and start to raise interest rates
Speaker 9: as opposed to cut interest rates. And if that happens,
Speaker 9: you'll see the markets start to tank. So I think
Speaker 9: a lot of what investors are looking at now are
Speaker 9: trying to play the odds to say, does it look
Speaker 9: like we're having success or does it look like this
Speaker 9: thing can spiral out of control?
Speaker 3: Now?
Speaker 9: The FED Chairman's pals credit when asked directly about the
Speaker 9: conflict in Iran and how does that have an effect
Speaker 9: on their decision making from a FED point of view.
Speaker 9: He basically brushed it off and said, you know, it's
Speaker 9: just too soon to tell.
Speaker 3: On that.
Speaker 9: He said, usually when we have these types of geopolitical conflicts,
Speaker 9: they are fairly short term. They're not overreacting to it.
Speaker 9: But they said that they are keeping an eye on it.
Speaker 9: Ooka for now, the FED isn't overly worried about what's
Speaker 9: going on in the Middle East.
Speaker 2: I guess it's the oil pricing. Right, Oil is right
Speaker 2: around just below ninety eight dollars. It went from one
Speaker 2: thirteen to ninety eight right after he Trump posted that
Speaker 2: on true social but it's still historically elevated. And what
Speaker 2: point does that become a serious drag on the economy.
Speaker 9: Yeah, So the problem from a data standpoint is if
Speaker 9: oil starts to go up higher than seventy five percent
Speaker 9: one hundred percent on a to your over year pricing,
Speaker 9: then it becomes a problem. And again that number somewhere
Speaker 9: around one hundred and twenty five dollars a barrel. I
Speaker 9: do think Donald Trump has a very close eye on that.
Speaker 9: He's already implementing some different things try to keep oil
Speaker 9: prices down. You know, he wanted to open up the
Speaker 9: Strategic Petroleum Reserve and release one hundred and seventy two
Speaker 9: million barrels.
Speaker 4: That's nothing.
Speaker 9: Yeah, well, and that's the point. You know, he's doing
Speaker 9: all these things. There's another one that you know they're
Speaker 9: looking at is, you know, trying to loosen the formula
Speaker 9: rules for gasoline. They're also talking about the potential of
Speaker 9: a fuel tax holiday worth about eighteen point four percent
Speaker 9: per gallon on gasoline and twenty four point four cents
Speaker 9: on diesel. Well, all these things, I think or just
Speaker 9: you know, just trying to shine up something that's not
Speaker 9: very shiny to make people feel better about things. It
Speaker 9: all comes down to the straight, oh horror moves our
Speaker 9: NATO partners and also our allies in the Middle East.
Speaker 9: You're starting to see Saudi Arabia and the UAE start
Speaker 9: to consider joining the war as well. Now, yes, that
Speaker 9: will help us, but that also push fears into the
Speaker 9: minds of investors that this conflict is expanding, not contracting.
Speaker 2: I got you, Andy Shaffer, simply money this morning on
Speaker 2: seven hundred WT. Sent you straight with the money. Taking
Speaker 2: the emotion out just getting to the fact, which I
Speaker 2: love very much. Some antlers are saying that this could
Speaker 2: be a repeat of nineteen seventy nine all over again,
Speaker 2: when the Shaw was run out of town, so to speak.
Speaker 2: And then of course we had the I told look
Speaker 2: put in place there, and we know the story from
Speaker 2: nineteen seventy nine, but we also had with that stagflation.
Speaker 2: But that only happens with the sustained attack on the
Speaker 2: Middle East oil infrastructure. How realistic is that risk right now?
Speaker 2: And what specific triggers investors are looking for?
Speaker 9: Yeah, so I think you know, people hear the terminology
Speaker 9: stagflation quite a bit. And essecially what stagflation is, it's
Speaker 9: slowing economic growth, high unemployment, and rising prices. So yes,
Speaker 9: if we start to see prices increase again, that's part
Speaker 9: of the fear of stagflation. But if you start to
Speaker 9: see high unemployment as well, that becomes a significant problem.
Speaker 9: And that's what we like largely saw on the Jimmy
Speaker 9: Carter years and in the early Ronald Regan years. Now
Speaker 9: we just talked about the labor numbers. Unemployment is not
Speaker 9: high and it's not a threat to be high. So
Speaker 9: I don't think it's realistic at this point to worry
Speaker 9: about stagflation.
Speaker 4: But I'm sure the feed has their eye on it.
Speaker 9: But right now it's not a big threat.
Speaker 2: Okay, So we're told tariffs add maybe a half point
Speaker 2: to inflation when I triggering a recession. But now we've
Speaker 2: got oil prices we mentioned on top of the existing tariffs,
Speaker 2: are with that combined, are we getting to a tipping
Speaker 2: point a little bit closer because of those two things
Speaker 2: and that leverage?
Speaker 9: Certainly, And I think there is a timeframe on this,
Speaker 9: and I think the Trump administration is very aware of it,
Speaker 9: and I think that's why they've been ramping up a
Speaker 9: lot of the strikes that we've had over the last
Speaker 9: week or so. You know, they are threatening to target
Speaker 9: the energy infrastructure of Iran, and the leaders over there
Speaker 9: right now certainly don't want that to happen because that
Speaker 9: can cripple their economy overall. And so I think the
Speaker 9: fact that we have dominated the airspace over there. We're
Speaker 9: even sent in Apache helicopters and some A ten warthogs,
Speaker 9: which usually is a signal that things are pretty secure
Speaker 9: from an air superiority standpoint. To really protect what has
Speaker 9: already been dominated that does signal that we are in
Speaker 9: position to really do what we want over there. And
Speaker 9: I do think that gives a Trump administration leverage and
Speaker 9: and you know, will allow the Iranians to come to
Speaker 9: the table. And I think that's largely what we saw
Speaker 9: Sunday night and into Monday, and that's why the market's
Speaker 9: ran so very well yesterday.
Speaker 2: Gotcha, Andy Shaeffer, you mentioned at the onset here the
Speaker 2: good news the Fed left the interest rates unchanged simply
Speaker 2: because they're they're they're in their target range and they're
Speaker 2: comfortable keep it on hold until we get inflation. And
Speaker 2: the other thing there is labor market trends. We're not
Speaker 2: quite sure because the government shutdowns are not getting data
Speaker 2: and that's really the problem.
Speaker 9: Yeah, and I think, you know, the Fitty even talked
Speaker 9: about the impact of AI on the labor market as well.
Speaker 6: You know.
Speaker 9: Overall, I think the practical takeaway here is that there
Speaker 9: is a plan in the Middle East, and they also
Speaker 9: the FED also has a plan to potentially raise rates
Speaker 9: slightly higher. There are some economists that think it might
Speaker 9: be necessary, they're not there yet. I think there were
Speaker 9: only two members that thought that might be a good idea,
Speaker 9: but there is some margin pressure due to higher energy
Speaker 9: costs and so the market volatility. You know, investors are
Speaker 9: looking at as the FED tries to reprice all of
Speaker 9: this based on what's going on over there. But as
Speaker 9: always FED chairman pals, you know, Fed Committee, they are
Speaker 9: taking in a conscious approach. I think as long as
Speaker 9: we get everything wrapped up in Iran and come to
Speaker 9: some sort of deal over the next couple of weeks,
Speaker 9: it's going to be back to business as usual. I
Speaker 9: think the markets will run and I do think that
Speaker 9: the AS will likely cut rates, probably in.
Speaker 2: JAID, which is good news for home buyers home sellers.
Speaker 2: So let's get a little bit more juice going on here.
Speaker 2: That's that's wonderful. Despite all this negative news out there,
Speaker 2: the economy remains pretty steadfast. It takes a lot for
Speaker 2: the economy to spiral downward. And it may be, who knows, today,
Speaker 2: some God forbid, there might be some major groundshift that
Speaker 2: we don't see happening here, a major cataclysmic event, which
Speaker 2: is always a possibility, natural disaster, man made disaster, or
Speaker 2: otherwise that'll bring the economy to a screeching all. Think
Speaker 2: of COVID or nine to eleven, for example. We just
Speaker 2: don't know what that's going to be. But you know,
Speaker 2: you can't really set your watch by it. Those things happen.
Speaker 2: But right now, that's the only thing that can trip
Speaker 2: us up, is what you're saying.
Speaker 9: Yeah, And you have to remember furthermore that the markets
Speaker 9: one hundred percent of the time have met and exceeded
Speaker 9: their previous highs. We did go through COVID, well, the
Speaker 9: markets fell about fifty percent. We are significantly higher from
Speaker 9: a S and P five hundred standpoint than we were
Speaker 9: during COVID. When the tariffs were announced last April, the
Speaker 9: markets fell another thirty percent. So we're significantly higher than
Speaker 9: we were last April. And so if you have other
Speaker 9: strategies in place, like having some decent amount of cash
Speaker 9: reserves to be able to not participate in the volatility,
Speaker 9: then you're gonna be fine. You just have to be
Speaker 9: smart about understanding how the volatility works and have a
Speaker 9: clear head and have a little bit of poise, and
Speaker 9: you'll be just fine.
Speaker 4: All right.
Speaker 2: He's Andy Shaeffer at all Worth Financial and they have
Speaker 2: a show called Simply Money. It airs at six o'clock
Speaker 2: every weeknight on fifty five karc and for more go
Speaker 2: there but all Worth Financial and Andy checks in every
Speaker 2: Tuesday and let us know how things are going with
Speaker 2: your money. He's pretty steady, Eddie, Andy, all the best.
Speaker 2: Have a good one, buddy.
Speaker 4: All right, Scott talks.
Speaker 2: Appreciate jss he don't don't freak out, don't flip out.
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