1 00:00:00,760 --> 00:00:06,640 Speaker 1: Mister New York marks them all. Dan wlr Well, we 2 00:00:06,800 --> 00:00:09,320 Speaker 1: like to bring you the smartest people around here is 3 00:00:09,360 --> 00:00:13,440 Speaker 1: the brilliant John Carney. Now you should read the Breitbart 4 00:00:13,760 --> 00:00:17,640 Speaker 1: Business Digest every day. He writes that John Carney's a 5 00:00:17,680 --> 00:00:20,319 Speaker 1: great stuff there. Now the way you get it just 6 00:00:20,320 --> 00:00:23,720 Speaker 1: go to Breitbart and then where it says newsletters, click 7 00:00:23,760 --> 00:00:27,360 Speaker 1: on newsletters and sign up for the Breitbart Business Digest. 8 00:00:27,720 --> 00:00:30,520 Speaker 1: It's important reading every day. All the top economists read it, 9 00:00:31,320 --> 00:00:34,000 Speaker 1: and he great writers with us right now, John Carney, 10 00:00:34,000 --> 00:00:34,800 Speaker 1: how you doing. 11 00:00:36,080 --> 00:00:38,360 Speaker 2: Really good? Mark? For a moment, I was afraid you 12 00:00:38,360 --> 00:00:40,600 Speaker 2: were going to say we bring all the smartest people. 13 00:00:40,720 --> 00:00:42,760 Speaker 2: Couldn't find any of you. Feel we got John. 14 00:00:42,640 --> 00:00:47,280 Speaker 1: Corney now president nine o'clock to night. What does he 15 00:00:47,320 --> 00:00:49,920 Speaker 1: need to say to calm down the stock market, the 16 00:00:50,840 --> 00:00:54,200 Speaker 1: calm down you know, oil prices and what does he 17 00:00:54,240 --> 00:00:54,680 Speaker 1: need to do? 18 00:00:55,880 --> 00:00:58,360 Speaker 2: So I think what he is going to tell us 19 00:00:58,520 --> 00:01:03,000 Speaker 2: is that the wars conclude it. He said about five 20 00:01:03,040 --> 00:01:06,160 Speaker 2: and a half, about five weeks ago, that this would 21 00:01:06,240 --> 00:01:09,679 Speaker 2: be a six week war, four to six weeks. We 22 00:01:09,800 --> 00:01:14,800 Speaker 2: keep hearing the administration say that we are that things 23 00:01:14,920 --> 00:01:17,600 Speaker 2: are ahead of schedule. You know, they like to say, 24 00:01:17,800 --> 00:01:22,640 Speaker 2: under budget and ahead of schedule. Well, I think. And 25 00:01:23,720 --> 00:01:29,199 Speaker 2: he was today on Truth Social saying that the current 26 00:01:29,319 --> 00:01:35,080 Speaker 2: leadership of Iran is asking for a ceasefire, and Trump said, 27 00:01:35,120 --> 00:01:36,960 Speaker 2: we will give them a ceasefire as long as the 28 00:01:36,959 --> 00:01:40,639 Speaker 2: straight of Her Moves opens. That's the key, right, Once 29 00:01:40,760 --> 00:01:43,280 Speaker 2: the oil can fruly pass through the Straight of Her 30 00:01:43,319 --> 00:01:47,120 Speaker 2: Moves again, which is just a little tiny bottleneck that 31 00:01:47,240 --> 00:01:50,320 Speaker 2: separates the Persian Gulf from frankly, the rest of the world, 32 00:01:50,800 --> 00:01:53,600 Speaker 2: once it can pass through there, oil prices will come 33 00:01:54,200 --> 00:01:57,600 Speaker 2: will fall very rapidly. Gas prices will fall a little 34 00:01:57,680 --> 00:02:02,360 Speaker 2: less rapidly, because that always happens. They know they trail 35 00:02:02,440 --> 00:02:06,520 Speaker 2: a little bit. And basically what we saw on the 36 00:02:06,520 --> 00:02:10,320 Speaker 2: way up was every ten dollars of barrel of oil 37 00:02:10,440 --> 00:02:14,920 Speaker 2: gas of the price equals about twenty five cents for 38 00:02:15,200 --> 00:02:19,280 Speaker 2: a gallon of gasoline. And we'll see that in reverse. 39 00:02:19,320 --> 00:02:21,959 Speaker 2: So as the price falls from one hundred and ten 40 00:02:22,040 --> 00:02:25,280 Speaker 2: dollars to one hundred dollars to ninety to eighty, people 41 00:02:25,320 --> 00:02:27,400 Speaker 2: who I talked to in the oil industry think we 42 00:02:27,440 --> 00:02:31,040 Speaker 2: could see less than sixty dollars a barrel in relatively 43 00:02:31,160 --> 00:02:34,119 Speaker 2: short order. They don't want it that low. By the way, 44 00:02:34,240 --> 00:02:37,440 Speaker 2: they think that's too low, but they but they're afraid 45 00:02:37,440 --> 00:02:40,280 Speaker 2: that the price is actually going to crash once we 46 00:02:40,320 --> 00:02:41,359 Speaker 2: get through this crisis. 47 00:02:41,480 --> 00:02:44,000 Speaker 1: Well, so we don't really use We don't use oil 48 00:02:44,040 --> 00:02:47,000 Speaker 1: from the Straits, hormuse a drop or two, but we 49 00:02:47,480 --> 00:02:50,320 Speaker 1: produce our own oil. So our own oil that we produced, 50 00:02:50,360 --> 00:02:53,720 Speaker 1: Like the WTI crewed, where did they get the nerve 51 00:02:53,800 --> 00:02:55,480 Speaker 1: to raise the price? There was no reason to do that, 52 00:02:55,600 --> 00:02:56,000 Speaker 1: was there. 53 00:02:57,280 --> 00:03:00,560 Speaker 2: No. We have plenty of oil. But remember it isn't 54 00:03:00,600 --> 00:03:03,680 Speaker 2: global commodity, and there are people around the world who 55 00:03:03,760 --> 00:03:06,120 Speaker 2: will bid it up, who will try to buy it 56 00:03:06,160 --> 00:03:09,519 Speaker 2: from US as we want them to. So we don't 57 00:03:09,560 --> 00:03:11,400 Speaker 2: have a lot. So when the war broke out, some 58 00:03:11,440 --> 00:03:14,040 Speaker 2: people said, will the White House try to say, like, 59 00:03:15,080 --> 00:03:19,760 Speaker 2: we won't sell our oil abroad? You know, only the 60 00:03:19,880 --> 00:03:22,000 Speaker 2: US could use it. That would keep US prices down, 61 00:03:22,040 --> 00:03:25,440 Speaker 2: but it would actually hurt our allies and people. We 62 00:03:25,520 --> 00:03:28,160 Speaker 2: want to be customers. We actually want the rest of 63 00:03:28,200 --> 00:03:31,600 Speaker 2: the world to look at the US as a reliable 64 00:03:31,639 --> 00:03:37,560 Speaker 2: supplier of energy, whether it's natural gas. Frankly, we could 65 00:03:37,560 --> 00:03:40,840 Speaker 2: shift coal. Nobody buys you know, is buying coal to 66 00:03:40,880 --> 00:03:44,320 Speaker 2: ship abroad, but natural gas and oil we want them 67 00:03:44,360 --> 00:03:46,840 Speaker 2: to not just look at US as the reliable supplier 68 00:03:46,880 --> 00:03:49,560 Speaker 2: of it, but a supplier in a time of crisis, 69 00:03:49,840 --> 00:03:52,680 Speaker 2: right that when something goes wrong in the Middle East, 70 00:03:52,920 --> 00:03:56,040 Speaker 2: people can rest assured that the US will continue to 71 00:03:56,080 --> 00:03:59,960 Speaker 2: produce oil. So yes, that means that when the globe 72 00:04:00,120 --> 00:04:03,400 Speaker 2: oil price goes up, we are paying more for gasoline. 73 00:04:03,560 --> 00:04:05,840 Speaker 2: But I think it's actually beneficial to the US, both 74 00:04:05,880 --> 00:04:09,640 Speaker 2: geostrategically and economically to have the rest of the world 75 00:04:09,640 --> 00:04:11,080 Speaker 2: look to US as a reliable. 76 00:04:10,720 --> 00:04:14,720 Speaker 1: Support to John Carney, Breitbart Business Digest. Hey, Jamie Diamond, 77 00:04:14,800 --> 00:04:18,200 Speaker 1: the very respected CEO on television yesterday trying to calm 78 00:04:18,240 --> 00:04:20,720 Speaker 1: the markets down. The stock market did overreact to this, 79 00:04:20,839 --> 00:04:21,200 Speaker 1: didn't They? 80 00:04:22,440 --> 00:04:28,279 Speaker 2: Absolutely? Look the stock the stock market is a overreaction 81 00:04:28,520 --> 00:04:32,400 Speaker 2: machine when things that it cannot predict. You know that 82 00:04:32,839 --> 00:04:37,320 Speaker 2: has trouble predicting happened, so we saw, you know, a 83 00:04:37,320 --> 00:04:40,200 Speaker 2: big sell off. What I would remind people is, look 84 00:04:40,200 --> 00:04:43,760 Speaker 2: at what happened in the immediate panic after Liberation Day 85 00:04:44,560 --> 00:04:48,440 Speaker 2: when Trump announced the initial teriff rates, and you had 86 00:04:48,440 --> 00:04:52,120 Speaker 2: a huge sell off. People who sold off into that 87 00:04:52,200 --> 00:04:54,680 Speaker 2: lost money because stocks went up a lot. If you 88 00:04:54,800 --> 00:04:59,640 Speaker 2: buy into these panic selloffs, you will do well. I 89 00:04:59,680 --> 00:05:05,200 Speaker 2: actually coined a acronym for this. It's panickers always lose money, pom. 90 00:05:06,400 --> 00:05:11,000 Speaker 2: Don't be a palm guy. Go ahead and don't panic, 91 00:05:11,120 --> 00:05:15,279 Speaker 2: you know, and frankly, just general good advice. People shouldn't 92 00:05:15,279 --> 00:05:17,920 Speaker 2: try to, you know, time the market panic. Just just 93 00:05:18,080 --> 00:05:22,000 Speaker 2: follow your investment strategy that you had before this happened, 94 00:05:22,040 --> 00:05:23,279 Speaker 2: and you'll do very well. 95 00:05:23,400 --> 00:05:26,400 Speaker 1: Yeah. But now, a lot of the market they like 96 00:05:26,480 --> 00:05:28,560 Speaker 1: these big swings, They like that panic, They love those 97 00:05:28,640 --> 00:05:30,599 Speaker 1: upsodes because that's where you can make money. The Gordon 98 00:05:30,640 --> 00:05:31,919 Speaker 1: Gecko types, right, yeah. 99 00:05:31,760 --> 00:05:34,880 Speaker 2: Oh sure, the hedge funds, the the you know, the 100 00:05:34,920 --> 00:05:37,919 Speaker 2: golden sacks is the word. All of the big firms 101 00:05:38,760 --> 00:05:41,159 Speaker 2: do well when there's tend to do well when there's 102 00:05:41,200 --> 00:05:43,640 Speaker 2: volatility because they have professional traders, so they do like 103 00:05:43,680 --> 00:05:47,120 Speaker 2: it and they but the other thing to remember is 104 00:05:47,120 --> 00:05:50,920 Speaker 2: they also hedge everything. So even though they may be 105 00:05:51,120 --> 00:05:54,039 Speaker 2: selling stocks, they are taking positions that if we get 106 00:05:54,080 --> 00:05:57,160 Speaker 2: a violent reversal and stocks go up, which by the way, 107 00:05:57,240 --> 00:05:59,200 Speaker 2: already happened this week. We saw a couple of days 108 00:05:59,240 --> 00:06:04,120 Speaker 2: where stocks went up really fast. And if Trump I 109 00:06:04,160 --> 00:06:07,400 Speaker 2: mean that, I would say, right now, there's two risks 110 00:06:07,400 --> 00:06:10,839 Speaker 2: in the market. One that Trump announces, you know, say 111 00:06:10,880 --> 00:06:17,680 Speaker 2: tonight that we are ceasing all military action. If that's 112 00:06:17,760 --> 00:06:22,279 Speaker 2: the case, oil prices crash and stock prices will soar. 113 00:06:23,120 --> 00:06:25,600 Speaker 2: The other thing, though, is maybe he says, you know, 114 00:06:25,680 --> 00:06:28,240 Speaker 2: we're doubling down, and you know, I don't think this 115 00:06:28,279 --> 00:06:31,120 Speaker 2: will happen, but we're doubling down. We're invading. You know, 116 00:06:31,200 --> 00:06:35,600 Speaker 2: I have one hundred thousand marines flying to take Tehran today. 117 00:06:36,200 --> 00:06:38,719 Speaker 2: Then the stock market will crash. Right, So there is 118 00:06:38,760 --> 00:06:41,520 Speaker 2: a risk, and that's why you get these ups and 119 00:06:41,560 --> 00:06:44,160 Speaker 2: downs because people are trying to trying to predict something 120 00:06:44,160 --> 00:06:46,640 Speaker 2: that frankly is inherently pretty unpredictable. 121 00:06:47,120 --> 00:06:49,080 Speaker 1: Well, now, John Connie, aside from the stock market, how 122 00:06:49,080 --> 00:06:52,159 Speaker 1: are we doing consumer confidence wise? That sort of stuff. 123 00:06:53,000 --> 00:06:57,880 Speaker 2: So it's very interesting the consumer confidence numbers improved in March. 124 00:06:58,120 --> 00:07:02,120 Speaker 2: That took a lot of people by but yeah, you know, 125 00:07:02,160 --> 00:07:04,960 Speaker 2: the official consensus was that it was going we're going 126 00:07:05,000 --> 00:07:08,120 Speaker 2: to see a declining competence. In fact, it went up. 127 00:07:08,480 --> 00:07:12,000 Speaker 2: Now there was a decline in the more forward looking 128 00:07:12,080 --> 00:07:14,240 Speaker 2: so that the consumer competence numbers are made up of 129 00:07:14,320 --> 00:07:17,920 Speaker 2: what they call the present situation evaluation and also the 130 00:07:17,960 --> 00:07:22,000 Speaker 2: expectations the expectations number came down a little bit, but 131 00:07:22,200 --> 00:07:26,000 Speaker 2: people's view of how the economy is today actually improved. 132 00:07:26,760 --> 00:07:30,320 Speaker 2: And we also got ADP numbers today. This is the 133 00:07:30,480 --> 00:07:34,400 Speaker 2: payroll processing company that has a pretty good view of 134 00:07:34,800 --> 00:07:38,560 Speaker 2: how hiring is going, and they actually said March was 135 00:07:38,600 --> 00:07:41,440 Speaker 2: a very good month for hiring. We added, according to them, 136 00:07:41,520 --> 00:07:45,240 Speaker 2: sixty four thousand jobs. By the way, small businesses added 137 00:07:45,560 --> 00:07:49,679 Speaker 2: one hundred and twelve thousand jobs in March according to ADP, 138 00:07:50,400 --> 00:07:53,480 Speaker 2: So the economy is doing pretty well. The reason why 139 00:07:53,480 --> 00:07:55,960 Speaker 2: I came down to sixty four is that larger business 140 00:07:55,960 --> 00:07:58,960 Speaker 2: has actually let some people go. We may be seeing 141 00:07:58,960 --> 00:08:02,240 Speaker 2: a little bit of an AI mix in there where 142 00:08:02,400 --> 00:08:04,880 Speaker 2: larger businesses that can use AI and what they do 143 00:08:06,080 --> 00:08:11,280 Speaker 2: are replacing some back office people with you and smaller businesses, 144 00:08:11,800 --> 00:08:13,920 Speaker 2: which tend to not you know, tend to be much 145 00:08:13,960 --> 00:08:18,480 Speaker 2: more hands on businesses are not using AI and not 146 00:08:18,560 --> 00:08:21,360 Speaker 2: letting people go. They're actually hiring. They hired according to ADP, 147 00:08:21,480 --> 00:08:23,360 Speaker 2: one hundred and twelve thousand people. That's a lot. 148 00:08:23,600 --> 00:08:28,800 Speaker 1: Yeah, wow, John Carney, Breitbart Business Digest. Let's get to 149 00:08:28,840 --> 00:08:30,520 Speaker 1: the FED for a minute. This When do we get 150 00:08:30,520 --> 00:08:32,120 Speaker 1: our new FED chairman? When do we get rid of 151 00:08:32,160 --> 00:08:33,319 Speaker 1: this Jerome Powell. 152 00:08:34,440 --> 00:08:37,559 Speaker 2: That's the greatest question that's ever been asked. Nobody knows. 153 00:08:38,280 --> 00:08:41,719 Speaker 2: Jerome Powell has said that he may refuse to go. 154 00:08:43,720 --> 00:08:46,480 Speaker 2: Our friend Larry Tudlow has said that, you know, Jerome 155 00:08:46,520 --> 00:08:50,720 Speaker 2: Powell wants to be chairman for life forever, maybe eternity. 156 00:08:51,080 --> 00:08:54,720 Speaker 2: But his look, his term as chairman ends May fiftem 157 00:08:55,800 --> 00:08:59,520 Speaker 2: on May six, kids, he is no longer chairman unless 158 00:08:59,600 --> 00:09:04,120 Speaker 2: the pre reappoints him as a temporary interim chairman. I 159 00:09:04,160 --> 00:09:07,160 Speaker 2: don't think. Look, do you think Trump is going to 160 00:09:07,200 --> 00:09:11,040 Speaker 2: reappoint him as the Intern German? Though Powell seems to 161 00:09:11,040 --> 00:09:13,320 Speaker 2: think that the Fed itself can appoint him as the 162 00:09:13,360 --> 00:09:17,360 Speaker 2: Intern chairman if Kevin worsh isn't confirmed. Yes, he has 163 00:09:17,400 --> 00:09:20,040 Speaker 2: said that, you know, oh well, the Fed will get 164 00:09:20,120 --> 00:09:23,240 Speaker 2: to choose me. That's wrong. By the law. It would 165 00:09:23,280 --> 00:09:27,800 Speaker 2: be really kind of an out of control, unaccountable move 166 00:09:27,840 --> 00:09:29,880 Speaker 2: for the Fed to decide to can point its own head. 167 00:09:29,920 --> 00:09:32,680 Speaker 2: He can't do that. So what will happen is the 168 00:09:32,720 --> 00:09:35,839 Speaker 2: President will get to appoint somebody. But frankly, we may 169 00:09:35,880 --> 00:09:39,960 Speaker 2: not get there because I think what we're going to see. 170 00:09:40,679 --> 00:09:44,680 Speaker 2: I have said before the Trump administration should announce that 171 00:09:44,760 --> 00:09:48,440 Speaker 2: it is wrapped up the investigation of the FED. That's 172 00:09:48,440 --> 00:09:51,679 Speaker 2: what Senator Tom Tillis in North Carolina is saying, is 173 00:09:51,720 --> 00:09:55,679 Speaker 2: holding up his willingness to confirm Kevin Warsh Trump's appointed 174 00:09:55,760 --> 00:09:59,200 Speaker 2: to run the FED. Once that is wrapped up, then 175 00:09:59,480 --> 00:10:03,480 Speaker 2: Tillis will vote to conform Worsh. We may even get 176 00:10:03,480 --> 00:10:07,599 Speaker 2: Democrats voting to confirm him. So I think Worsh is 177 00:10:07,640 --> 00:10:10,120 Speaker 2: going to get confirmed before we get to this May 178 00:10:10,160 --> 00:10:15,120 Speaker 2: fifteenth date when Powell's thing runs out. And by the way, 179 00:10:15,800 --> 00:10:20,640 Speaker 2: if Trump is worried about interfering with the investigation, you know, 180 00:10:20,679 --> 00:10:23,880 Speaker 2: because it's not usual for the president to interfere with 181 00:10:24,000 --> 00:10:27,239 Speaker 2: a justice a part of an investigation, he could preemptively 182 00:10:27,360 --> 00:10:31,440 Speaker 2: pardon Powell. And I've said this, Trump should issue a 183 00:10:31,480 --> 00:10:33,760 Speaker 2: pardon to Powell. Powell will hate that, he doesn't want 184 00:10:33,760 --> 00:10:37,120 Speaker 2: to be parted, but it would be you know, it 185 00:10:36,760 --> 00:10:40,080 Speaker 2: would resolve the whole thing. No more investigation, No, you know, 186 00:10:40,480 --> 00:10:43,200 Speaker 2: Powell doesn't have a reason to stick around. The one 187 00:10:43,520 --> 00:10:46,520 Speaker 2: caveat to everything I said is Powell can actually stay 188 00:10:46,640 --> 00:10:49,040 Speaker 2: on the FED board, not as chairman, but as a 189 00:10:49,120 --> 00:10:54,120 Speaker 2: governor of the FED for another two years. Till twenty 190 00:10:54,200 --> 00:10:56,960 Speaker 2: twenty eight. That would be it's really actually a year 191 00:10:56,960 --> 00:10:58,679 Speaker 2: and a half because it's January two, those twenty eighth, 192 00:10:58,679 --> 00:11:04,040 Speaker 2: but that would be unprecedent. People don't The practice of 193 00:11:04,720 --> 00:11:07,959 Speaker 2: FED President of FRED chairman has been even if their 194 00:11:08,000 --> 00:11:11,880 Speaker 2: governorship runs a few more years, to step down. But 195 00:11:11,960 --> 00:11:16,640 Speaker 2: Powell has kind of stubbornly refused to say he will 196 00:11:16,679 --> 00:11:20,480 Speaker 2: step down when his chairmanship ends. It's a very bad 197 00:11:20,480 --> 00:11:23,880 Speaker 2: president he's setting he should just say yeallgo No. 198 00:11:24,720 --> 00:11:27,200 Speaker 1: He's like arthritis. You never really get rid of it. 199 00:11:27,240 --> 00:11:31,559 Speaker 1: You can't get rid of it. Hey, everybody read John Carney, 200 00:11:32,600 --> 00:11:36,240 Speaker 1: Breitbart Business Digest, Larry Cudlow, all the top economists. This 201 00:11:36,280 --> 00:11:37,880 Speaker 1: is one of the first things they read every morning. 202 00:11:38,200 --> 00:11:40,520 Speaker 1: You can subscribe to it. Just go to Breitbart the 203 00:11:40,559 --> 00:11:44,280 Speaker 1: website Breitbart and where it says news letters, click on 204 00:11:44,320 --> 00:11:46,880 Speaker 1: that and then sign up for the Breitbart Business Digest 205 00:11:46,920 --> 00:11:49,360 Speaker 1: and make sure you get it every day. John Carney, 206 00:11:49,440 --> 00:11:51,719 Speaker 1: great stuff as always, and thanks for being with us. 207 00:11:52,679 --> 00:11:53,400 Speaker 2: Thanks for having me. 208 00:11:53,400 --> 00:11:57,880 Speaker 1: Mark, take care. Hey, don't forget at noon today, Buck Sexton, 209 00:11:58,200 --> 00:12:00,800 Speaker 1: Clay Travis. They always do a really good show every 210 00:12:00,840 --> 00:12:03,080 Speaker 1: day at noon. Then you got the most listened to 211 00:12:03,200 --> 00:12:06,199 Speaker 1: radio show in America, Sean Hannity at three, you got 212 00:12:06,240 --> 00:12:09,520 Speaker 1: Jesse Kelly at six. Now tonight, at nine tonight we're 213 00:12:09,520 --> 00:12:12,400 Speaker 1: gonna have the president's speech. Normally it's Jimmy Fayle at nine, 214 00:12:12,400 --> 00:12:15,520 Speaker 1: but he'll come on right after the President's speech. He'll 215 00:12:15,559 --> 00:12:18,640 Speaker 1: be listening to Jimmy Fayla every night, nine to midnight 216 00:12:18,960 --> 00:12:20,839 Speaker 1: on seven, ten, wor