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Speaker 1: Jokes on you, Michael, you can't ban me.

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Speaker 2: I've got sovereign immunity. See what I did there, I

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Speaker 2: threw out a legal term and now voila, you can't

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Speaker 2: stop me.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, you do have sovereign Well, you have sovereign immunity

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Speaker 3: for your official duties. Beyond that, you do not have

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Speaker 3: sovereign immunity. Mister military jag officer thinks emails everything cat

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Speaker 3: an email yesterday? What time this email come in? Came

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Speaker 3: in at eight o five yesterday morning from Excel Energy?

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Speaker 3: Subject it's fire prevention week? Isn't Excel Energy the one

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Speaker 3: that just a few weeks ago paid hundreds of millions

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Speaker 3: of dollars in claims for Uh.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, but they still say they didn't do it. Oh

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Speaker 1: that's right, never mind, but but they paid out.

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Speaker 3: We didn't do it, but we're gonna pay was it

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Speaker 3: three hundred million, six hundred million whatever?

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Speaker 2: The figure was?

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Speaker 1: More money than you or I have put together exactly. Well,

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Speaker 1: until we get our bonuses and then Christmas is coming up. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: it'll be close. That King Sooper's gift card. Wait a minute,

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Speaker 1: that was a decade ago.

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Speaker 3: A decade ago, October five through eleven is Fire Prevention Week,

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Speaker 3: And they tell me that fire preparedness and safety is

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Speaker 3: a responsibility shared by everyone, Yeah, including you, And we're

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Speaker 3: committed to helping you stay safe, informed, and prepared. And

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Speaker 3: we thought this would be a good time to point

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Speaker 3: out fire Prevention Week since we just paid out hundreds

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Speaker 3: of millions of dollars for starting a wildfire. They partnered

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Speaker 3: with the Red Cross. Boy, you talk about doing stupid

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Speaker 3: things start a fire, then you partner with the Red Cross?

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Speaker 3: Holy cow? Got you get me started on the Red Cross.

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Speaker 3: If you listen to me for any length of time,

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Speaker 3: you know how I feel about them.

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Speaker 2: They right.

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Speaker 3: We formed a strategic partnership with the American Red Cross

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Speaker 3: to enhance emergency preparedness and response across Colorado. Working together,

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Speaker 3: we'll educate Colorado communities on fire safety and wildfire hairedness.

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Speaker 2: Learn more about how you and all coloraddings.

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Speaker 3: Can take advantage of this partnership to help protect your

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Speaker 3: family and your home home fire safety. Of course, there's

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Speaker 3: a link there, but I ain't going to click it.

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Speaker 3: And then there are a couple of sub texts. Preparing

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Speaker 3: for wildfires. You know, know your wildfire risk level? Learn

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Speaker 3: more about what they're doing to prevent wildfires. Yeo, upgrading

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Speaker 3: the grid, fixing your power lines. And then it breaks

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Speaker 3: down into things you know people will surely you got

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Speaker 3: this too.

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Speaker 2: Well.

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Speaker 3: I got me to thinking, what about wildfires? What's the

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Speaker 3: truth about it? So as we approach the well, I

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Speaker 3: guess we really are kind of in full wildfire season

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Speaker 3: is starting to kind of wind down across much of

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Speaker 3: North America, though, as history shows, devastating fires can strike

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Speaker 3: even in the winter. Just thinking about state California Palisades fire,

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Speaker 3: think about, well, see the Paradise fire wasn't in the

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Speaker 3: I think it was in the fall. But it's a

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Speaker 3: seasonal lull, and the seasonal lull that we're entering into

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Speaker 3: is kind of a good time to reflect on the

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Speaker 3: narrative surrounding wildfires, especially amid a noticeable shift in focus

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Speaker 3: from their frequency and severity to now we want to

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Speaker 3: focus on their costs, the costs of wildfires. Now, you'll

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Speaker 3: notice that one thing that I don't have in my

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Speaker 3: notes as we go through it is what about the

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Speaker 3: cost of mitigation? For example, how about cleaning up the forests,

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Speaker 3: how about getting rid of all the dead wood? Now

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Speaker 3: at the end disclosed location, we're going through a program

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Speaker 3: right now. It's a federally funded program that is what

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Speaker 3: they should be doing. It's called the Firewise program. And

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Speaker 3: the Firewise program is where the Feds come in, they

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Speaker 3: hire contractors, and the contractors come in and they there's

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Speaker 3: a designated area where, for example, where we had a wildfire,

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Speaker 3: what four or five years ago, maybe longer now, but

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Speaker 3: we had a wildfire that almost destroyed it came very

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Speaker 3: close to destroying the undisclosed location. But I felt fairly

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Speaker 3: comfortable because we've got a protected area around the undisclosed location.

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Speaker 3: And I do things that a lot of people don't

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Speaker 3: do because I don't want people looking and go, oh, look,

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Speaker 3: the former FEMA director had all his entire woodpile piled

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Speaker 3: up against his house. And so we keep a brush

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Speaker 3: clear area around the undisclosed location. That's what we need

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Speaker 3: to be doing everywhere. But now they're just focusing on

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Speaker 3: the economic costs. They're shifting a little bit away from

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Speaker 3: frequency and severity, not entirely, but a little bit. For example,

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Speaker 3: a recent New York Times headline costly and deadly wildfires

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Speaker 3: really are on the rise, new research fines now that

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Speaker 3: kind of highlights the pivot they're costly and they're deadly.

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Speaker 2: Well, bless, don't forget they're also on the rise.

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Speaker 3: That story is claiming cats catastrophic wildfires have surged.

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Speaker 2: More than four times.

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Speaker 3: Fourfold from nineteen eighty to twenty twenty three because of

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Speaker 3: climate driven fire weather. It's the first time now I've

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Speaker 3: heard of fire season. You've got dry seasons, you've got

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Speaker 3: fire fuels, wildland fire. I've never heard the fire weather phrase.

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Speaker 3: Believe it to the New York Times to add too,

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Speaker 3: you know, to our vernacular new phrase. The headline, as

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Speaker 3: I said, says costly and deadly wildfires really are on

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Speaker 3: the rise. New research finds the subhead is the past

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Speaker 3: decade in particular, has seen an uptick in detastating blazes

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Speaker 3: linked to climate change, according to the study. It cites

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Speaker 3: a new paper that argues that disastrous wildfire spiked from

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Speaker 3: twenty fifteen through twenty twenty three, with forty three percent

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Speaker 3: of the two hundred most damaging events occurring in the

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Speaker 3: last decade alone, and that that is tied causally to

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Speaker 3: intensifying climate extremes. It's in Nature Communications and the article

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Speaker 3: is titled a Fire deficit Persists across the verse North

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Speaker 3: American forces despite recent increases in the area burned. This

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Speaker 3: was published back on Well It was received in July.

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Speaker 3: It was peer reviewed and then accepted on January fourth.

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Speaker 3: TEH published on February ten. This emphasis on costs as

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Speaker 3: opposed to severity and everything else mirrors the tactics used

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Speaker 3: in the discussion about billion dollar disasters, where increased damages

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Speaker 3: are spotlighted, because the metrics like burn area, are intensity

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Speaker 3: don't exactly line up with the alarmist predictions that are

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Speaker 3: coming out of the Church of the Climate activists. The

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Speaker 3: IPCC has long projected in reports up to number AR

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Speaker 3: six that climate change would amplify wildfire frequency and severity.

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Speaker 3: But guess what happens. When you do an observational look

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Speaker 3: at the data, you get an entirely different story. Globally,

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Speaker 3: burned area has plummeted over recent decades, not over recent years,

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Speaker 3: over recent decades, so that contradicts the claims of a

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Speaker 3: fire fueled apocalypse. It's about to come upon us because

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Speaker 3: for years now we've been told the climate change was

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Speaker 3: already making fires more frequent, more severe, and that that

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Speaker 3: wasn't occurring just in the United States. It was occurring worldwide,

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Speaker 3: but when you look at the global satellite record, it

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Speaker 3: shows a huge decline men maybe big, big, huge, I

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Speaker 3: don't care pick either word. In the area burned since

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Speaker 3: the early two thousands, even in grassland and savannah areas,

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Speaker 3: while forests and crop lands they stayed relatively flat and low.

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Speaker 3: And when you go to Our World and Data, there

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Speaker 3: is a graph area burned by wildfires by land cover

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Speaker 3: and type over the world, and you look at shrub

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Speaker 3: lands and grasslands. This is going back to two thousand

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Speaker 3: and two. A couple of spikes in the say, twenty

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Speaker 3: eleven period, but the trend line is from two hundred

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Speaker 3: and fifty million heck acres down to slightly one hundred

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Speaker 3: and fifty savannahs. It's a trend line downward, but it's

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Speaker 3: not as dramatic as it is for shrub lands and grasslands. Interesting.

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Speaker 3: I mean, look at for us the number of acres

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Speaker 3: that have been burned area burned by wildfires by land

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Speaker 3: by cover type our World and Data from two thousand

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Speaker 3: and two to twenty twenty two. It is always below

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Speaker 3: fifty million. It never spikes upwards. It doesn't really change

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Speaker 3: at all, does it vary a little bit year by year.

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Speaker 3: Of course, naturally you'd expect some variation. It's not going

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Speaker 3: to be a flat line. But there's no true If

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Speaker 3: it's a trend line, the trend line is flat lined.

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Speaker 3: The trend line is not upward, it's not downward.

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Speaker 2: It's just flat.

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Speaker 3: And the same as true for crop lands less than

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Speaker 3: fifty million. So the narrative shifts. You got to shift

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Speaker 3: the narrative with the data. If frequency and severity aren't

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Speaker 3: going to cooperate globally, then let's focus on the dollars.

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Speaker 3: That is, indeed, the same trick used in the billion

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Speaker 3: dollar disaster narrative that we hear all the time. Track

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Speaker 3: exposure and price inflation and call it climate change. What

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Speaker 3: do the observations actually show. Here's some awkward facts that

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Speaker 3: those who believe that, oh my gosh, we're all going

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Speaker 3: to burn to death, you're gonna have to grapple with this.

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Speaker 3: A quiet United States back in just do twenty twenty three,

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Speaker 3: a very quiet US in terms of wildfire, even as Canada,

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Speaker 3: spite the burned area in the United States was far

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Speaker 3: below the ten year average, but Canada had a record year. Now,

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Speaker 3: what can you extrapolate from that? I think that's evidence

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Speaker 3: that fuel ignition and management dominate. It's not a carbon

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Speaker 3: dioxide signal that conveniently respects the forty ninth parallel. Oh,

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Speaker 3: carbon CO two. Oh, we're approaching the forty ninth parallel

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Speaker 3: crossing the border. No, we don't have our visa, we

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Speaker 3: don't have our passport. Let's stay above and let's just

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Speaker 3: burn Canada. Let's go, let's don't go into the US.

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Speaker 3: That's how absurd these numbers are. Second point I make

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Speaker 3: is force management and fuel age. When you look at

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Speaker 3: radio carbon work on the KMP complex, it shows fuels

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Speaker 3: that are feeding the big California fires often average forty

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Speaker 3: years old. That's decades of accumulation of fuel, the very

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Speaker 3: fuel that's needed for those fires to spread. There's a

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Speaker 3: I forget whether it's Hulu or Netflix. Matthew mcconne, he's

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Speaker 3: in it, and it's a really good depiction of the

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Speaker 3: Paradise fire in California. I'd encourage you to go watch it.

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Speaker 3: I don't do movie reviews, but I did encourage you

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Speaker 3: to watch it primarily because as I was watching this,

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Speaker 3: having experienced those kinds of wildfires myself, for example, the

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Speaker 3: Cedar fire, in again in California, but down near San

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Speaker 3: Diego area, and some in Montana. I remember watching those

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Speaker 3: fires burn and being with the smoke jumpers and actually

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Speaker 3: being scared to death because of how fast they move,

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Speaker 3: how hot. It was really frightening. So I'm watching this

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Speaker 3: movie it's called Lost Bus, Lost Bus, and I'm watching

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Speaker 3: and I'm thinking, how the hell it can't all be CGI,

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Speaker 3: And if it is all CGI, it's amazingly really good

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Speaker 3: because the fire look and at least although you don't

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Speaker 3: feel it, having experienced you feel it. And so I'm

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Speaker 3: thinking to myself, this really looks real and feels real.

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Speaker 3: So while the movie's playing, of course, I get on

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Speaker 3: the laptop and start digging around. And what they did

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Speaker 3: is they filmed the movie in Riodoso, but for the

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Speaker 3: fire scenes, they found an abandoned like warehouse yard or

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Speaker 3: something in Santa Fe, and they brought in propane tanks

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Speaker 3: and then they like a Christmas tree lot. They would

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Speaker 3: then surround the propane tanks with these trees they're on stands,

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Speaker 3: and then they would light things up, and then they'd

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Speaker 3: use fans and they would blow the burning fuel from

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Speaker 3: tree to tree, and of course then it would jump,

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Speaker 3: and then they would take that those actual that filming

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Speaker 3: and then superimpose that with CGI into the film so

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Speaker 3: that you could see the bus and the kids on

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Speaker 3: the bus moving and through the fire. It was an

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Speaker 3: amazing movie in that regard. But go back to forest

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Speaker 3: management because this is really with the problem in California.

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Speaker 3: When you make an observation you find that you have

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Speaker 3: fuel that has been ignored for forty years, four decades,

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Speaker 3: four decades of accumulation of fuel. No suppression, not a

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Speaker 3: new physics of CO two, but just the accumulation of fuel,

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Speaker 3: because oh, we just want everything to be natural. Well,

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Speaker 3: those days are gone. You can't just let the forest now.

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Speaker 3: I suppose in remote areas of Canada you can. But

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Speaker 3: in urban areas like California, even when you live in

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Speaker 3: a rural area like Paradise, no, you can't just allow

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Speaker 3: them to just go natural. You actually need to engage

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Speaker 3: in forest management. Then there's a whole issue of policy

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Speaker 3: and plantations. Chili's Worse fire maps were Childre's Worse fires

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Speaker 3: map onto highly flammable eucalyptus pine plantations and land juice change.

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Speaker 3: So that's the cause, not greenhouse gases. Then you got

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Speaker 3: the lockdown logic. Provinces in Canada used twenty twenty five

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Speaker 3: fires to justify sweeping access bands. Remember that it was

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Speaker 3: up in the Nova Scotia. I think it was Nova

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Speaker 3: Scotia where they just literally shut down any movement whatsoever.

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Speaker 3: You couldnot even go hike. You could even even if

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Speaker 3: it was a paved road through a national forest, you

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Speaker 3: couldn't even drive through there. So it was just a lockdown.

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Speaker 3: So Canada so far this year using lockdowns sounds familiar,

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Speaker 3: doesn't it, even though their national data shows big year

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Speaker 3: to year swings and no steady coeal two driven march.

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Speaker 3: So the whole set the CO two being the driver

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Speaker 3: of climate change and causing these fires, when you look

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Speaker 3: at the actual observation, it's not true. And all of

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Speaker 3: that lines up with the historical record in the North

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Speaker 3: American forest. Modern burn rates are generally lower and less

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Speaker 3: variable than they were in the seventeen hundred to nineteen

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Speaker 3: hundreds baseline. Now there are regional differences that track with

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Speaker 3: weather patterns and with management activities, not a single global driver.

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Speaker 3: As the people in the Church of the Climate activists

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Speaker 3: want you to believe that it's climate change. No the baseline.

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Speaker 3: The modern burn rates are lower and less variable than

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Speaker 3: the baselines that we have from the seventeen hundred to

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Speaker 3: nineteen hundreds. When what did we do then?

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Speaker 2: Nothing?

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Speaker 3: Did we fight force fires to some degree, yes, but

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Speaker 3: basically in the wild West they burn. It's not climbing.

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Speaker 3: So why is the media selling bills costs and not

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Speaker 3: makers birds?

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Speaker 2: Why are they doing that? Carn and fair face more

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Speaker 2: than ding dong. Yeah, I agree with the other guy.

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Speaker 1: Goobers are us and the Antifa people that you so

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Speaker 1: ungraciously called a goober are actually dung piles.

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Speaker 2: Have a good day.

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Speaker 3: I stand duly correct. It's not gonna happen to gain

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Speaker 3: excuse me, back to wildfires. So the headlines are screaming

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Speaker 3: all this urgency. As I said the New York Times,

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Speaker 3: costly and denly wildfires really on the rise. The UK

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Speaker 3: Guardian wildfires are getting deadly or and costing more. Experts

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Speaker 3: warn their becoming unstoppable. It's the inferno coming to get you, CNN.

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Speaker 3: Of course, then n's got to get in out on it.

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Speaker 3: How a warming climate is setting the stage for fast spreading,

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Speaker 3: destructive wildfires. So the climate scientists another phrase, I got

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Speaker 3: a problem with climate scientists amplify this. Michael Mann, the

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Speaker 3: professor from University of Pennsylvania that bought me on x

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Speaker 3: because he didn't want to debate climate change. Michael Mann

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Speaker 3: claims that climate change is increasing the frequency in the

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Speaker 3: severity of North American fires. He said in an email

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Speaker 3: that climate change is the primary reason for the increasingly widespread, damaging,

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Speaker 3: and deadly North American wildfires reported by Yahoo News. Yet we've, interestingly,

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Speaker 3: we've got three well I would consider to be pivotal

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Speaker 3: studies between twenty twenty two and twenty twenty five that

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Speaker 3: directly counter those claims, showing wildfire activity remains within the

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Speaker 3: historical variability and challenges the IPCC's medium to high confidence

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Speaker 3: assertions in their reports that anthropogenic warming is increasing burn

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Speaker 3: area and increasing burn intensity, in particular in regions like

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Speaker 3: North American forests.

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Speaker 2: It's always us. Why is it always us?

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Speaker 3: They never report like, you know, wildfires in China or

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Speaker 3: wildfires in Russian in you know, Russia is a heavily

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Speaker 3: forested country. What about them? Nobody ever bitches about them.

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Speaker 3: So start with covering and diverging burn rates in North

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Speaker 3: America forests from the Little Ice Age to the presence.

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Speaker 3: This is the International Journal of Wildland Fire, using three

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Speaker 3: cohort records from sixteen different sites that span the period

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Speaker 3: from seventeen hundred to nineteen ninety. You've benchmarked that against

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Speaker 3: nineteen eighty to twenty twenty days. It reveals declining burn

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Speaker 3: rates in the early to mid nineteen hundreds, primarily due

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Speaker 3: to suppression, but with modern rates that are lower and

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Speaker 3: less variable. Eastern sites show convergence to low rates. Northwestern

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Speaker 3: sites diverge slightly upward, but still within historical bounds. All

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Speaker 3: of that directly undercuts the IPC's emphasis on climate driven increases,

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Speaker 3: attributing trends more to land use changes. So think about that.

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Speaker 3: Then fast forward to this year again, Nature Communications quote

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Speaker 3: a fire deficit persists across diverse North American forests despite

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Speaker 3: recent increases in the area burned leverages less than eighteen

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Speaker 3: hundred fire scar sites. So, despite uptakes since the nineteen eighties,

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Speaker 3: contemporary fires nineteen eighty four to twenty twenty two burned

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Speaker 3: only a certain percentage of the expected historical rates, which

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Speaker 3: are obviously pre eighteen eighty, pre nineteen hundred. You know

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Speaker 3: what it is, twenty three percent. We're twenty three percent

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Speaker 3: of what the burned area is compared to the historical

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Speaker 3: data twenty three percent. Now, obviously we're getting better at

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Speaker 3: fighting fires, but we're actually getting worse in terms of

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Speaker 3: forest management. So when you do a comparison of the

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Speaker 3: distributions of fire occurrences in the pre eighteen eighties, pre

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Speaker 3: nineteen hundred period and the contemporary according to these studies

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Speaker 3: nineteen eighty four to twenty twenty two, for all North

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Speaker 3: America Tree Ring Fire Scar Network sites, that's where they

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Speaker 3: actually go study the rings and the scar the burn scars.

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Speaker 3: The site analysis is amazing. When you start back to

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Speaker 3: the beginning when the numbers are high, you get into

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Speaker 3: twenty fifteen, will in twenty twenty only nineteen percent of

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Speaker 3: sites burned in sixteen eighty five had any burn in

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Speaker 3: twenty twenty two. You get to twenty one, twenty twenty one,

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Speaker 3: twenty one percent of sites burned compared to seventeen twenty nine.

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Speaker 3: Gets even less than as you go into twenty twenty five.

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Speaker 3: Record years like twenty twenty affected only six percent of

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Speaker 3: the sites, far below the peak of twenty nine percent

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Speaker 3: of the sites from seventeen forty eight. Non fire years

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Speaker 3: are now more common, pointing to suppressions legacy, not CO

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Speaker 3: two dominance. This persists across every force type, and that

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Speaker 3: contradicts every projection of the IPC of escalating severity from warming.

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Speaker 3: Now complementing this, you can go to a the Canadian

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Speaker 3: Journal of Force Research quote contextualizing recent increases in the

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Speaker 3: Canadian wildfire activity decadal burning rates.

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Speaker 2: Decadal burn rates.

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Speaker 3: Still within historical variability of the past two centuries, and

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Speaker 3: they go on to reconstruct the period eighteen hundred to

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Speaker 3: twenty twenty three burn rates across five different zones.

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Speaker 2: So while twenty twenty three's burn.

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Speaker 3: Was the highest in nineteen seventy two, you look out

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Speaker 3: over a wider time span between twenty fourteen and twenty

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Speaker 3: twenty three, the decades stayed within the variability in all

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Speaker 3: the four zones from the eighteen hundreds. It exceeds it

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Speaker 3: slightly in only one western area. In Layman's terms, what

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Speaker 3: does that mean? This frames twenty twenty three as exceptional

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Speaker 3: but not unprecedented, driven by factors like fuel loads rather

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Speaker 3: than climate. So, whether we're talking about wildfires, floods, hurricanes,

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Speaker 3: we're gonna talk about hurricanes. Closure we get to the

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Speaker 3: end of hurricane season, you suddenly begin to realize we

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Speaker 3: really are being.

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Speaker 2: Sold a line of bull crap.

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Speaker 3: All of these studies counter the climate linked escalation papers

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Speaker 3: that are out there about costs focused alarm and they

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Speaker 3: do so by providing a multi century context of all

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Speaker 3: these wildfires. Disasters may cost more because of what the

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Speaker 3: disasters are exposed to, all of the building, all of

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Speaker 3: the urbanization, the population growth, the widespread construction of infrastructure.

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Speaker 3: But even with all of that, the activity is not

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Speaker 3: surging beyond the norms that we have Going back to

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Speaker 3: the seventeen hundreds. Globally, the emergency data data shows no

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Speaker 3: wildfire up up trend amid other disasters either, whether it's drought,

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Speaker 3: extreme temperature, flood, storm, wildfires.

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Speaker 2: None of them particularly.

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Speaker 3: Let's just take the time frame since we started really

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Speaker 3: hearing about the panic of climate change the year two thousand.

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Speaker 3: I know you could go back to nineteen seventy three,

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Speaker 3: nineteen seventies, but two thousand when it really became alarmist

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Speaker 3: and became a religion. You look at whether it's wildfire, storms, flood,

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Speaker 3: extreme temperature's, drought, all of those are all within the norms.

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Speaker 3: So if it's all within the norms. You've got to

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Speaker 3: make a shift. And so what do they do. The

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Speaker 3: decided to make a shift. And the shift goes from

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Speaker 3: the number of incidents to the cost of each incident.

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Speaker 3: And we know that the cost of any particular incident

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Speaker 3: may be higher depending of course, on where it occurs.

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Speaker 3: If it occurs up in the Indian Peace Wilderness, that

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Speaker 3: cost is not going to be necessarily higher than one

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Speaker 3: that occurs, say, where the Marshall fire occurred. Because when

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Speaker 3: the Marshall fire occurred, what happened. Entire town wiped out, Paradise,

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Speaker 3: entire town wiped out, palisades, entire towns wiped out. So yeah, oh, look, guys,

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Speaker 3: if we focus on the cost because of fires in

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Speaker 3: urban areas and then somehow just sneakly link that to

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Speaker 3: climate change, we can keep the fear going when indeed

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Speaker 3: the fear is completely unjustified.

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Speaker 2: Michael, I'm sick of hearing at these government employees and

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Speaker 2: the air traffic controlers are working without pay. Did they

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Speaker 2: get paid? Ask Friday? Is this Friday their payday? Has

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Speaker 2: anybody missed a paycheck yet? No?

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Speaker 3: And I don't hold me to this, but I think

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Speaker 3: it's this Friday that they need to open up so

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Speaker 3: that they can process the checks to be paid next week,

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Speaker 3: the fifteenth. I think the fifteenth, I think that's my

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Speaker 3: that's my I think that's what the deal is. That's

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Speaker 3: why they're pushing harder and harder, because no, they've not

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Speaker 3: gone without a paycheck yet, and which is the point

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00:27:34,520 --> 00:27:38,239
Speaker 3: that Dragon made several days ago that he and I

391
00:27:38,280 --> 00:27:41,320
Speaker 3: have been working without a paycheck since we got our

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Speaker 3: deposit back on October first, and won't get another one

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Speaker 3: until next week. So and then there is a statute

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Speaker 3: that says that they will be reimbursed. Omb has come

395
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Speaker 3: out and said, yeah, we're not sure we're going to

396
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Speaker 3: follow that or not. So they're putting the pressure on

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Speaker 3: the Democrats big time. Back in two thousand time about wildfires.

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Speaker 3: So back in seven, the IPC said or warned that

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Speaker 3: the fire season would lengthen and the fire risk would increase,

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Speaker 3: and they used the Mediterranean as a hotspot, but for

401
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Speaker 3: North America, all of Mexico, Canada, and the United States.

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Speaker 3: They went further, citing a model that a model that

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Speaker 3: projected a somewhere between seventy four and one hundred and

404
00:28:36,320 --> 00:28:41,040
Speaker 3: eighteen percent increase in the burned area in Canada by

405
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Speaker 3: the year twenty one hundred because of warming summers. Well,

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00:28:45,760 --> 00:28:49,360
Speaker 3: then that was an O seven. Then in twenty fourteen

407
00:28:49,400 --> 00:28:52,760
Speaker 3: they decided, oh, maybe we need to update that, and

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Speaker 3: they said wildfire activity had had he increased in the

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Speaker 3: western US and in Canada, including longer fire season and

410
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Speaker 3: more area burned. But importantly, the technical summary from the

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Speaker 3: update in twenty fourteen to seven years after seven framed

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Speaker 3: the climate change contribution as being quote of only medium

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Speaker 3: or minor confidence relative to land use in fire management.

414
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Speaker 3: In other words, they're saying, Okay, we saw some increase,

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Speaker 3: but now we're not sure what we can attribute that to.

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Speaker 3: Oh well, I thought you were dead said that it

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Speaker 3: was climate change. So those reports primed people who followed

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Speaker 3: this stuff to expect steady worsening everywhere. But the global

419
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Speaker 3: satellite record since the early two thousand show, as I

420
00:29:48,360 --> 00:29:52,800
Speaker 3: said earlier, declining areas burned, especially in grasslands and savannahs,

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Speaker 3: while forcing crop land that burn has stayed almost flatlined.

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Speaker 3: Now losses have risen as more people and higher value

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Speaker 3: homes move into the wildland urban interface. That's where the

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00:30:07,960 --> 00:30:12,920
Speaker 3: houses in the infrastructure meet the flammable vegetation. There was

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Speaker 3: a landmark synthesis found that about fifteen percent of the

426
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Speaker 3: area burned in the West since twenty twenty five years

427
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Speaker 3: ago was inside the wildland urban interface.

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Speaker 2: So of course the costs are going to go up.

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Speaker 3: The more you build homes going up into Genesee, the

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Speaker 3: more you build homes going up into the front range,

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Speaker 3: and you do have a wildfire. Huh, you build a

432
00:30:38,000 --> 00:30:40,760
Speaker 3: million dollar home where you used to have a one

433
00:30:40,800 --> 00:30:44,880
Speaker 3: hundred thousand dollars cabin. Yeah, the costs are now higher.

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Speaker 3: How stupid do they think we are. I'll tell you

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00:30:50,440 --> 00:30:53,000
Speaker 3: how stupid they think we are. Wildfire is not a

436
00:30:53,000 --> 00:30:57,120
Speaker 3: climate story. It's a fuel story. It's an ignition story,

437
00:30:57,440 --> 00:31:00,320
Speaker 3: it's a wind and weather windows story, and it's an

438
00:31:00,360 --> 00:31:05,320
Speaker 3: exposure story. Stack up the observations and the pattering is

439
00:31:05,680 --> 00:31:09,280
Speaker 3: pretty boring. In fact, it's pretty clear and boring. The

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00:31:09,320 --> 00:31:15,800
Speaker 3: global area burned is downward. The context keeps recent spikes

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00:31:15,920 --> 00:31:19,200
Speaker 3: within the natural variability going back to the seventeen hundreds.

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00:31:19,960 --> 00:31:23,719
Speaker 3: The places that explode are the places that have heavy fuel,

443
00:31:24,200 --> 00:31:28,640
Speaker 3: meaning lousy forest management, bad sighting, building your house in

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00:31:28,680 --> 00:31:35,480
Speaker 3: a highly flammable area and preventable ignitions, not cleaning stuff up.

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00:31:36,200 --> 00:31:42,120
Speaker 3: Greenhouse gases are not the master switch here. Forest management is.

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00:31:42,560 --> 00:31:46,000
Speaker 3: So if you want fewer disasters, we need clear force floors,

447
00:31:46,240 --> 00:31:50,760
Speaker 3: safer utilities, smarter planting in the wildland urban interface. Blaming

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00:31:50,840 --> 00:31:55,720
Speaker 3: climate delays the fixes that would actually solve the problem.

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00:31:56,000 --> 00:31:58,200
Speaker 3: If you think that the dollar amount is a problem,

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00:31:59,000 --> 00:32:01,680
Speaker 3: I do think the dollar manunt is a problem.

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00:32:02,040 --> 00:32:03,040
Speaker 2: You don't think my.

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00:32:03,040 --> 00:32:05,600
Speaker 3: Insurance costs have gone up because of where the indisclosed

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00:32:05,600 --> 00:32:09,480
Speaker 3: location is located. Absolutely, which is why I work to

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00:32:09,640 --> 00:32:12,240
Speaker 3: convince the insurance company year after year, look what I've

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00:32:12,240 --> 00:32:13,240
Speaker 3: done to make it safer.

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00:32:14,640 --> 00:32:16,400
Speaker 2: There still racking up my prehends