1 00:00:00,360 --> 00:00:00,760 Speaker 1: Michael. 2 00:00:01,200 --> 00:00:04,200 Speaker 2: What amazes me are the people that couldn't tell us 3 00:00:04,240 --> 00:00:06,680 Speaker 2: what a woman was. Now all of a sudden, they're 4 00:00:06,720 --> 00:00:09,600 Speaker 2: supposed to be experts on the Constitution and the powers 5 00:00:09,600 --> 00:00:12,200 Speaker 2: of the president. Unbelievable. 6 00:00:13,640 --> 00:00:17,000 Speaker 3: I posted something on X yesterday about the War Powers Act, 7 00:00:17,520 --> 00:00:22,439 Speaker 3: and there's clearly a group of people that and bots, 8 00:00:23,120 --> 00:00:29,000 Speaker 3: mostly bots, I would guess, but people that are invisibly 9 00:00:29,040 --> 00:00:31,240 Speaker 3: following me, you know, they're they're they have me on 10 00:00:31,280 --> 00:00:34,360 Speaker 3: a list perhaps, but they're not actually following me technically. 11 00:00:34,880 --> 00:00:37,240 Speaker 3: And so when I posted something about the War Powers 12 00:00:37,280 --> 00:00:40,240 Speaker 3: Act yesterday and and people come back, you know what 13 00:00:40,280 --> 00:00:41,640 Speaker 3: you're talking about, you know what you're talking about. And 14 00:00:41,640 --> 00:00:45,720 Speaker 3: I'm like, seriously, at your best argument, you don't know 15 00:00:45,720 --> 00:00:48,400 Speaker 3: what you're talking about. Tell tell me where I'm wrong. 16 00:00:49,159 --> 00:00:50,760 Speaker 3: Just tell me where I'm wrong about and I can 17 00:00:50,800 --> 00:00:55,440 Speaker 3: deal with that. So we will Dragon for the putt. Well, 18 00:00:55,440 --> 00:00:58,520 Speaker 3: I was gonna say for the podcast for today, for 19 00:00:58,600 --> 00:01:01,880 Speaker 3: this segment's pod cat you can title it the head 20 00:01:01,960 --> 00:01:05,280 Speaker 3: is gone, but the body is still moving in terms 21 00:01:05,280 --> 00:01:10,959 Speaker 3: of the Iranians. But speaking of podcasts, we're still getting 22 00:01:11,120 --> 00:01:17,560 Speaker 3: text messages about Saturday's podcast. It is up right dragging this. 23 00:01:17,680 --> 00:01:19,959 Speaker 1: Up that is correct. It is if I posted it yesterday, 24 00:01:19,959 --> 00:01:23,959 Speaker 1: you gave me five whole dollars for it, which. 25 00:01:24,200 --> 00:01:26,000 Speaker 3: I didn't want you to see me. I was trying 26 00:01:26,040 --> 00:01:28,600 Speaker 3: to like put it on your computer monitor, but I 27 00:01:28,600 --> 00:01:30,520 Speaker 3: thought you were already over in the other studio and 28 00:01:30,560 --> 00:01:32,640 Speaker 3: I didn't think you'd see it. And then as I 29 00:01:32,680 --> 00:01:34,560 Speaker 3: was putting it on, I thought to myself, this is 30 00:01:34,560 --> 00:01:36,240 Speaker 3: the dumbest thing I can do. I'm putting I'm gonna 31 00:01:36,240 --> 00:01:38,679 Speaker 3: put a five dollars bill on a computer monitor out 32 00:01:38,720 --> 00:01:41,600 Speaker 3: in the newsroom and expect that you might find it, 33 00:01:41,680 --> 00:01:44,399 Speaker 3: you know, even fifteen milliseconds later. 34 00:01:45,319 --> 00:01:47,000 Speaker 1: I assumed you were playing with some of my fake 35 00:01:47,080 --> 00:01:48,120 Speaker 1: one hundreds over there. 36 00:01:48,440 --> 00:01:49,400 Speaker 3: Would you still have those? 37 00:01:49,640 --> 00:01:49,840 Speaker 2: Yeah? 38 00:01:49,920 --> 00:01:51,880 Speaker 1: I think most of them have disappeared. 39 00:01:52,040 --> 00:01:55,919 Speaker 3: Those people have picked them up. Only crap, unbelievable. Anyway, 40 00:01:56,000 --> 00:01:59,720 Speaker 3: the Saturday podcast is up, although in Washington, d C. 41 00:02:00,760 --> 00:02:03,840 Speaker 3: I would say that, well, I think Saturday's podcast is 42 00:02:03,880 --> 00:02:06,880 Speaker 3: still worth listening to because it will give you the 43 00:02:07,360 --> 00:02:11,720 Speaker 3: background as the news was breaking on Saturday and my 44 00:02:11,800 --> 00:02:14,519 Speaker 3: analysis of that breaking news. So it probably still gives 45 00:02:14,560 --> 00:02:17,800 Speaker 3: you a good baseline to understand what's going on. But 46 00:02:18,160 --> 00:02:20,799 Speaker 3: it is there, and it is available for download. And 47 00:02:21,120 --> 00:02:23,280 Speaker 3: I'm going to reach out today and make sure that 48 00:02:23,320 --> 00:02:25,360 Speaker 3: even though I now have the new account, I still 49 00:02:25,480 --> 00:02:28,399 Speaker 3: have I don't have access to him yet. So I've 50 00:02:28,400 --> 00:02:31,080 Speaker 3: got to figure out from Temper or Jojo or somebody 51 00:02:31,080 --> 00:02:34,639 Speaker 3: how you know. I'd like to say to the corporate 52 00:02:35,400 --> 00:02:38,960 Speaker 3: you know, goober that Nate, wherever you are, Nate out 53 00:02:39,000 --> 00:02:41,880 Speaker 3: in Iheartland, thank you for allowing me to set up 54 00:02:41,880 --> 00:02:45,320 Speaker 3: an account. It does me no good. It does me 55 00:02:45,520 --> 00:02:49,920 Speaker 3: no good. I now have an account and nothing in it. 56 00:02:49,960 --> 00:02:54,440 Speaker 3: Good grief gives me nuts. So yes, we would call 57 00:02:54,720 --> 00:02:56,600 Speaker 3: I would call this segment the head is gone, but 58 00:02:56,639 --> 00:03:02,760 Speaker 3: the body's still moving. Here's if you're if you've got 59 00:03:02,760 --> 00:03:05,320 Speaker 3: a whiteboard and you're keeping track of if you're keeping 60 00:03:05,360 --> 00:03:07,720 Speaker 3: track of the war on a whiteboard, here here's your 61 00:03:07,720 --> 00:03:11,360 Speaker 3: current status. The United States and Israel have now struck 62 00:03:11,400 --> 00:03:15,240 Speaker 3: more than twelve hundred and fifty targets in country. Six 63 00:03:15,320 --> 00:03:18,600 Speaker 3: American service members have been killed. The US embassy and 64 00:03:18,680 --> 00:03:21,520 Speaker 3: Riodd has been struck by an Iranian drone. I think 65 00:03:21,600 --> 00:03:24,320 Speaker 3: drones are going to be the bane of future warfare. 66 00:03:25,040 --> 00:03:28,040 Speaker 3: It caused a limited fire, no reported casualies. Well, oh 67 00:03:28,040 --> 00:03:29,799 Speaker 3: my gosh, if you go look at the Drudge report. 68 00:03:30,080 --> 00:03:32,640 Speaker 3: It is the end of the civil it is into civilization. 69 00:03:34,280 --> 00:03:38,360 Speaker 3: And President Trump for the first time declined to rule 70 00:03:38,400 --> 00:03:42,680 Speaker 3: out ground forces and Iran if necessary, if necessary, And 71 00:03:42,760 --> 00:03:44,400 Speaker 3: of course he also went on to say something, and 72 00:03:44,480 --> 00:03:47,800 Speaker 3: I'm paraphrasing here that why would I telescope, why would 73 00:03:47,800 --> 00:03:51,240 Speaker 3: I telegraph what I am thinking about doing? So our ground, 74 00:03:51,360 --> 00:03:54,040 Speaker 3: our ground troops of possibility, Well, of course they are. 75 00:03:54,720 --> 00:03:59,080 Speaker 3: I'm not taking anything off the table. So he's not 76 00:03:59,320 --> 00:04:02,600 Speaker 3: ruling out ground troops in Iran. But that is not 77 00:04:02,680 --> 00:04:09,240 Speaker 3: where this conversation started. On Saturday morning, Israeli forces launched 78 00:04:09,400 --> 00:04:14,400 Speaker 3: simultaneous strike air strikes on military targets in Tehran. Has 79 00:04:14,480 --> 00:04:19,200 Speaker 3: belaw positions in Beirut early Tuesday, early this morning, early 80 00:04:19,279 --> 00:04:23,200 Speaker 3: their Tuesday morning, which is still Tuesday there, but you know, 81 00:04:23,360 --> 00:04:30,479 Speaker 3: you know. U TC Symcom Central Command says that roughly 82 00:04:30,760 --> 00:04:36,560 Speaker 3: half of Iran's blasting balastic ballistic missile launchers had been 83 00:04:36,680 --> 00:04:41,240 Speaker 3: now eliminated. Now the the Tan's nuclear facility has been 84 00:04:41,320 --> 00:04:45,039 Speaker 3: hit again and the I E A this e the 85 00:04:45,240 --> 00:04:49,000 Speaker 3: I A e A this time has confirmed damage to 86 00:04:49,160 --> 00:04:53,880 Speaker 3: the entrance buildings from satellite imagery, imagery and there's been 87 00:04:53,960 --> 00:05:00,719 Speaker 3: no reported radiological spillage, no radio radioactive detection or anything 88 00:05:00,760 --> 00:05:11,600 Speaker 3: of that sort. The Al Larraji, Iran's top security official, 89 00:05:12,320 --> 00:05:16,760 Speaker 3: has announced that Iran will not negotiate with the United States. 90 00:05:17,680 --> 00:05:24,640 Speaker 3: So that's the hardline position right now, stated publicly. Meanwhile, 91 00:05:24,839 --> 00:05:28,480 Speaker 3: Trump is saying that Iran's new leadership wants to talk, 92 00:05:28,839 --> 00:05:31,760 Speaker 3: and he has agreed to talk. Now, both things are 93 00:05:31,800 --> 00:05:37,200 Speaker 3: apparently true simultaneously. I know for some that are have 94 00:05:37,240 --> 00:05:39,159 Speaker 3: a difficult time with critical thinking, that might be a 95 00:05:39,160 --> 00:05:43,440 Speaker 3: hard thing to do. But both things are apparently true simultaneously, 96 00:05:43,960 --> 00:05:47,000 Speaker 3: and that o'ught to tell you this how fractured and 97 00:05:47,120 --> 00:05:52,760 Speaker 3: chaotic the Iranian decision making structure currently is. So the 98 00:05:52,800 --> 00:05:56,440 Speaker 3: bottom line on day four would be this. This would 99 00:05:56,440 --> 00:06:00,760 Speaker 3: be my bottom line. The military campaign is succeeding by 100 00:06:00,800 --> 00:06:06,560 Speaker 3: every measurable objective. The political end game remains totally and 101 00:06:06,640 --> 00:06:10,800 Speaker 3: completely undefined. And that's a gap. That's a gap between 102 00:06:10,920 --> 00:06:16,320 Speaker 3: military success and political clarity. And that's where the story 103 00:06:16,480 --> 00:06:22,800 Speaker 3: is right now. So I would say that in you know, 104 00:06:23,920 --> 00:06:26,120 Speaker 3: kind of the new boss the same as the old 105 00:06:26,120 --> 00:06:31,360 Speaker 3: boss problem. That's what we got right now. So let 106 00:06:31,400 --> 00:06:33,880 Speaker 3: me give you a little analysis because This is the 107 00:06:34,000 --> 00:06:38,599 Speaker 3: question at the heart of everything. We killed Comena, we 108 00:06:38,720 --> 00:06:42,200 Speaker 3: killed forty eight of a senior leaders, we killed most 109 00:06:42,200 --> 00:06:46,359 Speaker 3: of his designated successor. So who's running the country now? 110 00:06:47,440 --> 00:06:49,719 Speaker 3: And is it just another version of the same regime. 111 00:06:49,760 --> 00:06:53,800 Speaker 3: But they got some new clothes, they haven't They don't 112 00:06:53,839 --> 00:06:57,640 Speaker 3: have any cuts or bruises on them. I think the 113 00:06:57,640 --> 00:07:01,800 Speaker 3: the honest answer is possibly yes, we got the new 114 00:07:01,839 --> 00:07:06,440 Speaker 3: boss same as the old boss. It's probably mostly yes. 115 00:07:07,000 --> 00:07:11,080 Speaker 3: And here's exactly why Trump himself has admitted the problem. 116 00:07:11,800 --> 00:07:15,520 Speaker 3: He said, and I quote, the attack was so successful 117 00:07:15,560 --> 00:07:19,320 Speaker 3: it knocked out most of the candidates. It's not going 118 00:07:19,360 --> 00:07:21,720 Speaker 3: to be anybody that we were thinking of, because well, 119 00:07:21,720 --> 00:07:26,320 Speaker 3: they're all dead. Second place, third place is dead. Now 120 00:07:26,360 --> 00:07:30,560 Speaker 3: think about what that means in terms of the Iranian constitution, 121 00:07:31,040 --> 00:07:35,560 Speaker 3: But think about it what it means strategically. Kamine had 122 00:07:35,600 --> 00:07:42,280 Speaker 3: secretly designated three successor clerics, his chief of staff, the 123 00:07:42,360 --> 00:07:47,880 Speaker 3: chief Justice, and Hassein Kamene, who's the grandson of the 124 00:07:47,920 --> 00:07:54,920 Speaker 3: revolutionary founder. The chief of staff was killed in the 125 00:07:54,960 --> 00:08:00,880 Speaker 3: opening strikes, so the carefully prepared succession plan was actually 126 00:08:00,920 --> 00:08:06,280 Speaker 3: shredded on day one. What feels that vacuum? Let me 127 00:08:06,320 --> 00:08:09,360 Speaker 3: give you a structural answer, because I think this is 128 00:08:09,400 --> 00:08:11,960 Speaker 3: where my new boss same as the old boss problem 129 00:08:12,480 --> 00:08:16,440 Speaker 3: becomes really a legal and an institutional argument. It's not 130 00:08:16,520 --> 00:08:19,880 Speaker 3: just a rhetorical I actually mean when I say this 131 00:08:19,920 --> 00:08:21,440 Speaker 3: is the new boss the same as the old boss, 132 00:08:21,840 --> 00:08:25,560 Speaker 3: It's truly a legal and an institutional problem. It's just 133 00:08:25,560 --> 00:08:30,560 Speaker 3: not a rhetorical, you know, turn of phrase. The Islamic 134 00:08:30,600 --> 00:08:36,280 Speaker 3: Republic was designed to concentrate ultimate authority in the supreme leader, 135 00:08:37,440 --> 00:08:42,120 Speaker 3: but under common a the the regime learned a long 136 00:08:42,160 --> 00:08:46,080 Speaker 3: time ago that they needed to distribute coercy power across 137 00:08:46,400 --> 00:08:50,679 Speaker 3: overlapping institutions. And really the two main ones are the 138 00:08:50,800 --> 00:08:56,920 Speaker 3: are the IRGC and their internal security apparatus, because that 139 00:08:56,960 --> 00:09:01,240 Speaker 3: would allow the Iranian state to an endure during a 140 00:09:01,280 --> 00:09:03,720 Speaker 3: moment of crisis, which is exactly what they're in right now. 141 00:09:04,520 --> 00:09:10,560 Speaker 3: So those architectural decisions have produced a system capable of 142 00:09:10,640 --> 00:09:16,959 Speaker 3: continuing to fight even as it negotiates internally, not externally, 143 00:09:17,000 --> 00:09:20,320 Speaker 3: not with us, but as it negotiates with itself over 144 00:09:20,360 --> 00:09:25,079 Speaker 3: who's going to take over command and control. In cowboy English, 145 00:09:25,280 --> 00:09:30,360 Speaker 3: i'd say this Kamina was the figurehead. The IRGC is 146 00:09:30,400 --> 00:09:34,200 Speaker 3: the engine. You can replace the figurehead, but it's not 147 00:09:34,240 --> 00:09:39,000 Speaker 3: really so easy to replace the engine. I'm going to 148 00:09:39,040 --> 00:09:43,319 Speaker 3: cite them again and I apologize, but for these purposes 149 00:09:43,360 --> 00:09:47,120 Speaker 3: they're a good source. The Council and Foreign Relations. They 150 00:09:47,160 --> 00:09:49,240 Speaker 3: put it as starkly as I think you could put it, 151 00:09:50,600 --> 00:09:55,360 Speaker 3: taking out Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatola Kamene is not the 152 00:09:55,400 --> 00:09:59,800 Speaker 3: same as regime change. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Court is 153 00:10:00,280 --> 00:10:04,480 Speaker 3: the regime. I think that right. What we ought to 154 00:10:04,520 --> 00:10:06,480 Speaker 3: do is cross stitch that on a pillow in the 155 00:10:06,520 --> 00:10:08,839 Speaker 3: Oval office so that you know, and put it on 156 00:10:08,880 --> 00:10:11,120 Speaker 3: the couch over there, so as Trump sits at the 157 00:10:11,160 --> 00:10:13,600 Speaker 3: Resolute desk, he can look over there and he'll see 158 00:10:13,640 --> 00:10:17,960 Speaker 3: that that taking out the Supreme Leader is not the 159 00:10:18,000 --> 00:10:23,040 Speaker 3: same as regime change. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard is the regime. 160 00:10:23,720 --> 00:10:26,600 Speaker 3: Now hang on, because later in the program we're going 161 00:10:26,679 --> 00:10:32,720 Speaker 3: to get to the status of the IRGC. What is 162 00:10:32,840 --> 00:10:36,720 Speaker 3: now filling the vacuum left by kammen A is exactly 163 00:10:36,800 --> 00:10:40,240 Speaker 3: what the Council on Foreign Relations was warning about. We 164 00:10:40,320 --> 00:10:44,280 Speaker 3: have a three person transition Council that in practice answers 165 00:10:44,320 --> 00:10:50,040 Speaker 3: to the IRGC. The Iranian President, the so called moderate 166 00:10:50,080 --> 00:10:54,600 Speaker 3: on the council is actually seen as a very weak figure. 167 00:10:54,960 --> 00:10:58,880 Speaker 3: He has no real autonomy. He paired the Kammina during 168 00:10:58,880 --> 00:11:01,360 Speaker 3: the June twenty twenty five of war, and he hasn't 169 00:11:01,400 --> 00:11:04,520 Speaker 3: given any indication I can find online or in any 170 00:11:04,600 --> 00:11:07,040 Speaker 3: of my contacts that he's going to charge some sort 171 00:11:07,080 --> 00:11:11,040 Speaker 3: of new course now. So meanwhile, the IRGC has effected 172 00:11:11,160 --> 00:11:13,960 Speaker 3: free reign to lead the fight, and that's precisely what 173 00:11:14,000 --> 00:11:17,600 Speaker 3: they're doing. So the man that addressed the Iranian nation 174 00:11:17,679 --> 00:11:20,400 Speaker 3: on television, which they no longer can because that's been 175 00:11:20,400 --> 00:11:23,199 Speaker 3: taken out, but that's just his footnote. The guy that 176 00:11:23,640 --> 00:11:27,800 Speaker 3: addressed the nation on television after Kamene's death was not 177 00:11:27,920 --> 00:11:32,880 Speaker 3: the president. It was somebody named Ali Lajani, the head 178 00:11:32,880 --> 00:11:35,720 Speaker 3: of the Supreme National Security Council. He's a former IRGC 179 00:11:35,840 --> 00:11:39,760 Speaker 3: commander though, and he's a very experienced political operator who 180 00:11:39,760 --> 00:11:43,880 Speaker 3: has been overseeing all of the nuclear negotiations, all the 181 00:11:43,920 --> 00:11:48,400 Speaker 3: regional relations, and is in charge of the suppression and 182 00:11:48,440 --> 00:11:51,760 Speaker 3: the killing of whether it's you know, two hundred two 183 00:11:51,800 --> 00:11:55,840 Speaker 3: thousand or forty thousand or fifty thousand of all the protesters. 184 00:11:56,320 --> 00:11:59,880 Speaker 3: Lajarni is the person actually running the country right now, 185 00:12:01,000 --> 00:12:04,679 Speaker 3: and he just told the world that Iran will not negotiate. 186 00:12:05,520 --> 00:12:09,240 Speaker 3: So that's where it gets really interesting and why I 187 00:12:09,280 --> 00:12:12,760 Speaker 3: want you to think about this as think about it 188 00:12:12,800 --> 00:12:15,280 Speaker 3: like I am for a moment as a lawyer, not 189 00:12:15,360 --> 00:12:20,280 Speaker 3: just as a discerning consumer of news. Okay, the five scenarios. 190 00:12:20,920 --> 00:12:24,600 Speaker 3: I've got five scenarios for what Iran becomes after common 191 00:12:24,640 --> 00:12:30,720 Speaker 3: a laid out by the Carnegie Endowments kareem such as 192 00:12:30,840 --> 00:12:35,520 Speaker 3: poor and I think they're worth knowing by name because 193 00:12:35,520 --> 00:12:43,720 Speaker 3: I think these five, these five scenarios is what you 194 00:12:43,840 --> 00:12:51,079 Speaker 3: need to be watching. First, it would be and Iran 195 00:12:51,280 --> 00:12:56,600 Speaker 3: as China scenario, So think about Iran as China. So 196 00:12:56,640 --> 00:13:02,240 Speaker 3: what happens The Iranians adapt and they modernize at the 197 00:13:02,280 --> 00:13:08,320 Speaker 3: same time that they maintain authoritarian control. Second, as Iran 198 00:13:08,360 --> 00:13:12,559 Speaker 3: as post Soviet Russia scenario, you have a managed transition 199 00:13:12,679 --> 00:13:16,960 Speaker 3: into an oligarchy and you just have a superficial appearance 200 00:13:17,200 --> 00:13:21,560 Speaker 3: of reform. Or it could be Third, Iran as North 201 00:13:21,600 --> 00:13:25,839 Speaker 3: Korea scenario. The state doubles down on isolation and repression, 202 00:13:26,880 --> 00:13:33,280 Speaker 3: perhaps under the the dead Supreme Leader's son or another 203 00:13:33,320 --> 00:13:37,720 Speaker 3: hardliner sustained and kept in placed mainly by the IRGC, 204 00:13:38,640 --> 00:13:42,000 Speaker 3: and their survival would depend on totalitarian control and a 205 00:13:42,120 --> 00:13:46,880 Speaker 3: nuclear deterrent. So that's Iran as North Korea, and the 206 00:13:46,920 --> 00:13:52,120 Speaker 3: fourth would be Iran as Pakistan. The IRGC eclipses the clergy. 207 00:13:52,880 --> 00:13:55,959 Speaker 3: They start ruling directly or even indirectly as guardians of 208 00:13:56,040 --> 00:14:00,240 Speaker 3: national unity, a pultarian state defined by the generals. The 209 00:14:00,320 --> 00:14:05,520 Speaker 3: general will be running everything. Fifth Iran as Turkey. A 210 00:14:05,640 --> 00:14:11,640 Speaker 3: populous democracy emerges clerical power, giving way two more competitive elections. 211 00:14:12,280 --> 00:14:17,080 Speaker 3: Now that last scenario, that's what Trump's betting on. Scenarios 212 00:14:17,120 --> 00:14:23,120 Speaker 3: three and four Iran as Russia as Iran as North Korea. 213 00:14:24,640 --> 00:14:29,000 Speaker 3: That's what the IRGC is currently trying to deliver. And 214 00:14:29,120 --> 00:14:34,080 Speaker 3: I think an honest assessment of historians of authoritarian transition 215 00:14:35,040 --> 00:14:37,680 Speaker 3: really is sobering when you think about what's going on. 216 00:14:39,120 --> 00:14:42,960 Speaker 3: Research by political scientists Barbaragetti shows that from World War 217 00:14:43,080 --> 00:14:46,880 Speaker 3: II to the present, less than twenty five percent of 218 00:14:46,920 --> 00:14:52,520 Speaker 3: authoritarian transitions have led to democracy. For far more often 219 00:14:52,560 --> 00:14:57,280 Speaker 3: than not, they lead to another form of authoritarianism. And 220 00:14:57,320 --> 00:14:59,840 Speaker 3: then when authoritarian governments collapse as a result of a 221 00:15:00,000 --> 00:15:05,000 Speaker 3: external conflict, the likelihood of democrat transition is even lower. 222 00:15:05,720 --> 00:15:08,600 Speaker 3: So this is the central tension in everything that's happening 223 00:15:08,720 --> 00:15:13,080 Speaker 3: right now. The military operation is succeeding. The political bet 224 00:15:13,480 --> 00:15:15,840 Speaker 3: that the Iranian people can seize the moment and create 225 00:15:15,840 --> 00:15:21,440 Speaker 3: a Democrat alternative is unproven and historically unlikely without a 226 00:15:21,520 --> 00:15:25,400 Speaker 3: very specific and deliberate American strategy to make that happen. Now, 227 00:15:25,480 --> 00:15:28,000 Speaker 3: don't think that I've given up, because I haven't given up, 228 00:15:28,240 --> 00:15:31,080 Speaker 3: Because would I say, without a very specific and deliberate 229 00:15:31,280 --> 00:15:34,040 Speaker 3: American strategy to make it happen. Guess what I'm going 230 00:15:34,080 --> 00:15:36,320 Speaker 3: to give you today. I'm going to give you a 231 00:15:36,440 --> 00:15:39,520 Speaker 3: very specific and deliberate American strategy by which we can 232 00:15:39,560 --> 00:15:47,200 Speaker 3: see that happen. I don't think that I'm some brilliant strategist. 233 00:15:47,960 --> 00:15:50,960 Speaker 3: I just developed this just digging online and talking to 234 00:15:50,960 --> 00:15:53,880 Speaker 3: a few people inside the Beltway about tell me what 235 00:15:53,880 --> 00:16:00,600 Speaker 3: you can about what's really going on. There's one Iranians 236 00:16:00,680 --> 00:16:04,600 Speaker 3: there's one Iranian analyst that I was told about that 237 00:16:04,640 --> 00:16:07,240 Speaker 3: made a chilling observation about what comes next if the 238 00:16:07,280 --> 00:16:10,600 Speaker 3: regime survives the immediate shock, and that is that they 239 00:16:10,680 --> 00:16:13,160 Speaker 3: learned the lesson from the June twenty twenty five war 240 00:16:13,840 --> 00:16:18,040 Speaker 3: that any sort of restraint is interpreted as weakness. So 241 00:16:18,280 --> 00:16:22,240 Speaker 3: the era of Kamena's doctrine of strategic patients died when 242 00:16:22,280 --> 00:16:28,400 Speaker 3: he died. What replaced it may be an IRGC dominated 243 00:16:28,440 --> 00:16:31,760 Speaker 3: state that is not more moderate, but is actually more aggressive, 244 00:16:32,160 --> 00:16:34,880 Speaker 3: fueled by a nationalist fury. Now, when I say a 245 00:16:34,960 --> 00:16:37,880 Speaker 3: nationalist fury, I'm not talking about the you know, the 246 00:16:37,920 --> 00:16:42,760 Speaker 3: average Iranian, the you know, the the shopkeeper or the doctor, 247 00:16:42,840 --> 00:16:45,200 Speaker 3: or the lawyer or the plumber or anybody else. I'm 248 00:16:45,240 --> 00:16:50,320 Speaker 3: talking about the security apparatus people. So the worst case 249 00:16:50,360 --> 00:16:53,680 Speaker 3: scenario is not a collapsing Iran, It is actually a 250 00:16:53,720 --> 00:16:57,240 Speaker 3: surviving Iran that is actually going to be more angry, 251 00:16:57,760 --> 00:17:02,760 Speaker 3: more militarized, more nationalistic, and without the clerical moderating influence 252 00:17:02,960 --> 00:17:08,399 Speaker 3: that occasionally, not often, but occasionally restrain the hardliner the hardliners. 253 00:17:09,520 --> 00:17:15,239 Speaker 3: So the path to genuine self governance and why the 254 00:17:15,359 --> 00:17:20,240 Speaker 3: Venezuela model doesn't translate. I think there is a path 255 00:17:20,280 --> 00:17:23,280 Speaker 3: to genuine self governance, and we're going to work our 256 00:17:23,320 --> 00:17:26,560 Speaker 3: way into that by eliminating some of the things that 257 00:17:26,600 --> 00:17:28,919 Speaker 3: you're hearing in the dominant media, in from the cabal 258 00:17:29,040 --> 00:17:31,760 Speaker 3: right now about why it's like this or it's like that, 259 00:17:32,200 --> 00:17:36,160 Speaker 3: or you know, it's never going to succeed. I don't 260 00:17:36,200 --> 00:17:38,359 Speaker 3: think I think all of those things could be true, 261 00:17:38,880 --> 00:17:41,000 Speaker 3: and I think none of those things could be true. 262 00:17:41,800 --> 00:17:45,679 Speaker 3: So let's start out with why the Venezuela model won't 263 00:17:45,680 --> 00:17:49,560 Speaker 3: translate in terms of just what's happening in Iran. That'll 264 00:17:49,600 --> 00:17:53,800 Speaker 3: be next. The best scenario is that the Persian people 265 00:17:54,760 --> 00:17:58,920 Speaker 3: grip their Islamic occupiers limb for. 266 00:17:59,000 --> 00:18:02,520 Speaker 1: Limb and permanently drive them out of the country. 267 00:18:04,680 --> 00:18:08,160 Speaker 3: Yeah, we'll get there, We'll get there. I just saw 268 00:18:08,200 --> 00:18:16,200 Speaker 3: the most bizarre headline, thieves steal seventeen bowling balls from 269 00:18:16,800 --> 00:18:18,800 Speaker 3: pro bowler's porch. 270 00:18:20,160 --> 00:18:22,520 Speaker 1: Is this like one of those things where you set 271 00:18:22,560 --> 00:18:25,040 Speaker 1: out fake packages in order to catch the thieves, like 272 00:18:25,080 --> 00:18:27,000 Speaker 1: you know, exploding, you know, paint. 273 00:18:27,280 --> 00:18:32,320 Speaker 3: Well, the headline is they stole seventeen bowling balls. But 274 00:18:32,720 --> 00:18:35,720 Speaker 3: I'm just you're a pro bowler. I can see a 275 00:18:35,720 --> 00:18:38,480 Speaker 3: pro bowler having seventeen bowling balls. I don't know, yeah, 276 00:18:38,520 --> 00:18:41,200 Speaker 3: maybe twenty five, maybe seven. I don't know why are 277 00:18:41,200 --> 00:18:41,879 Speaker 3: they on porch? 278 00:18:42,720 --> 00:18:42,760 Speaker 2: What? 279 00:18:43,119 --> 00:18:45,119 Speaker 1: Why are they on the porch on display? 280 00:18:45,520 --> 00:18:48,800 Speaker 3: Or did you have seventeen bowling balls delivered by Amazon 281 00:18:49,440 --> 00:18:53,159 Speaker 3: or food X or ups and someone stole those? I 282 00:18:53,200 --> 00:18:55,360 Speaker 3: just can't figure why you have seventeen bowling balls. 283 00:18:55,119 --> 00:18:58,200 Speaker 1: On the porch because he can't, Michael. 284 00:18:58,080 --> 00:19:00,200 Speaker 3: Well, because he has a constitutional right to do so, 285 00:19:00,400 --> 00:19:05,320 Speaker 3: my golly, and I just want to remind you that 286 00:19:05,600 --> 00:19:09,719 Speaker 3: while we, you know, have a war going on halfway 287 00:19:09,760 --> 00:19:12,640 Speaker 3: around the world, we've got bowling balls being stolen from 288 00:19:12,640 --> 00:19:14,160 Speaker 3: our porches in this country. 289 00:19:14,200 --> 00:19:15,639 Speaker 1: So what is this world coming up? 290 00:19:15,680 --> 00:19:17,360 Speaker 3: I know? So you know, we might as well just 291 00:19:17,600 --> 00:19:20,240 Speaker 3: call a day and go home. So what does what 292 00:19:20,280 --> 00:19:24,159 Speaker 3: does a real genuine path to self determination for the 293 00:19:24,160 --> 00:19:27,320 Speaker 3: Iranians look like? And why can't we simply replicate what 294 00:19:27,400 --> 00:19:31,440 Speaker 3: we did in Caracas? Even Trump referred to the Venezuelan 295 00:19:31,480 --> 00:19:34,159 Speaker 3: model in an interview with The New York Times. He 296 00:19:34,280 --> 00:19:37,080 Speaker 3: described that what we did in Venezuela is the perfect 297 00:19:37,119 --> 00:19:39,879 Speaker 3: scenario where everybody kept their job except for two people, 298 00:19:40,440 --> 00:19:43,879 Speaker 3: obviously reforking to Maduro and his wife, and then the 299 00:19:43,920 --> 00:19:47,359 Speaker 3: swearing in of his vice president as a successor with 300 00:19:47,600 --> 00:19:53,200 Speaker 3: Washington endorsement. Now, that might be attractive in its simplicity, 301 00:19:53,240 --> 00:19:57,159 Speaker 3: but it is also certainly wrong for the Iranians. And 302 00:19:57,200 --> 00:19:59,879 Speaker 3: here's here's here's why. This is the way this powers 303 00:20:00,000 --> 00:20:04,760 Speaker 3: structure was a personal dictatorship. Maduro was the center of gravity. 304 00:20:05,119 --> 00:20:08,800 Speaker 3: You take away Maduro and as vice president could easily 305 00:20:08,840 --> 00:20:13,040 Speaker 3: just pivot straight to Washington because her very survival and 306 00:20:13,080 --> 00:20:15,520 Speaker 3: by survival I mean her very life depended on it. 307 00:20:17,160 --> 00:20:21,040 Speaker 3: Iran is not a personal dictatorship. It's what I would 308 00:20:21,040 --> 00:20:24,280 Speaker 3: describe as a series of pillars, and it's not a pyramid. 309 00:20:25,000 --> 00:20:30,120 Speaker 3: It's a deep state made of the IRGC security thugs 310 00:20:30,720 --> 00:20:35,399 Speaker 3: with their own vested interest in maintaining the regime. Many 311 00:20:35,400 --> 00:20:39,320 Speaker 3: of the leaders and the veterans of the IRGC are 312 00:20:39,480 --> 00:20:45,200 Speaker 3: less domina subordinates and actually more like his partners. So 313 00:20:45,280 --> 00:20:49,879 Speaker 3: you can't maduroize Iran because there's no single person who's 314 00:20:49,920 --> 00:20:54,360 Speaker 3: removal collapses the enterprise. You'd have to maduroize about two 315 00:20:54,400 --> 00:20:59,959 Speaker 3: hundred thousand IRGC officers simultaneously. So that's not a hostage rescue. 316 00:21:00,200 --> 00:21:04,680 Speaker 3: That's a war of occupation. And Pete Hegseth, the Secretary 317 00:21:04,720 --> 00:21:07,280 Speaker 3: of Defense, is explicitly said that is not what we 318 00:21:07,320 --> 00:21:12,200 Speaker 3: are undergoing right now. So what are the actual tools 319 00:21:12,240 --> 00:21:15,560 Speaker 3: for giving the Uranian people a genuine opportunity to take 320 00:21:15,600 --> 00:21:23,960 Speaker 3: back their country. I think the most operationally specific framework 321 00:21:24,000 --> 00:21:28,960 Speaker 3: available maps closely to what Sentcom appears to actually be doing. 322 00:21:29,880 --> 00:21:34,960 Speaker 3: The argument is that Washington must fracture the Iranian regime, 323 00:21:35,040 --> 00:21:38,760 Speaker 3: not just at the top, but across the entire country. 324 00:21:39,560 --> 00:21:44,200 Speaker 3: You've got to target every IRGC and BAJI, that's the 325 00:21:44,240 --> 00:21:48,960 Speaker 3: security forces, all of their provincial command and battalion headquarters, 326 00:21:49,560 --> 00:21:52,679 Speaker 3: and you've got to target the police command centers. So 327 00:21:52,840 --> 00:21:56,959 Speaker 3: the goal would be to reduce the regime's repressive capacity 328 00:21:57,400 --> 00:22:04,520 Speaker 3: everywhere simultaneously, just in Tehran. Doing that would still it 329 00:22:04,520 --> 00:22:08,280 Speaker 3: would impede continuity of government operations, and that would also 330 00:22:08,359 --> 00:22:12,440 Speaker 3: send a very strong signal that can motivate the Iranium people. Now, 331 00:22:12,520 --> 00:22:16,320 Speaker 3: sitcom's current claim is that roughly have of Iran's ballistic 332 00:22:16,359 --> 00:22:20,359 Speaker 3: missile launchers have been eliminated since the war began, and 333 00:22:20,440 --> 00:22:24,639 Speaker 3: strikes have continued against the IRGC command centers across twenty 334 00:22:24,640 --> 00:22:27,320 Speaker 3: four out of thirty one provinces. Now, that is not 335 00:22:27,400 --> 00:22:30,960 Speaker 3: a Tehran only operation. That is exactly the kind of 336 00:22:31,040 --> 00:22:34,639 Speaker 3: provincial decapitation strategy that I think they need to be 337 00:22:34,720 --> 00:22:38,560 Speaker 3: undertaking if they want to really take you know, the 338 00:22:38,880 --> 00:22:41,200 Speaker 3: the new boss can't be the same as the old boss. 339 00:22:42,600 --> 00:22:46,520 Speaker 3: And you're not going to have a new boss at all, 340 00:22:46,720 --> 00:22:49,000 Speaker 3: even in a new form unless you get rid of 341 00:22:49,040 --> 00:22:53,119 Speaker 3: the IRGC and all the security apparatus. So that's the 342 00:22:53,160 --> 00:22:56,280 Speaker 3: first tool. The second tool would be you've got to 343 00:22:56,320 --> 00:23:01,320 Speaker 3: restore the internet. Internet access has been severely limited in 344 00:23:01,440 --> 00:23:05,680 Speaker 3: Iran since the strike started. Make it that it's almost impossible. 345 00:23:05,720 --> 00:23:07,800 Speaker 3: In fact, I would say it truly is impossible right 346 00:23:07,840 --> 00:23:10,800 Speaker 3: now for journalists to report and for the population to 347 00:23:10,880 --> 00:23:15,480 Speaker 3: coordinate the group NetBlocks. They'll tell you kind of where 348 00:23:15,480 --> 00:23:19,560 Speaker 3: outages are and everything. Report that Internet at Internet connectivity, 349 00:23:19,600 --> 00:23:25,080 Speaker 3: not activity connectivity dropped to four percent of ordinary levels. 350 00:23:25,720 --> 00:23:28,040 Speaker 3: So the ability of Trump to talk to the Uranian 351 00:23:28,080 --> 00:23:30,560 Speaker 3: people directly, which he's been trying to do through truth 352 00:23:30,640 --> 00:23:35,800 Speaker 3: social through video messages, it's honestly, it's meaningless if you 353 00:23:35,840 --> 00:23:40,600 Speaker 3: can't access what he's saying. Now, the Starlink constellation, the 354 00:23:40,680 --> 00:23:43,960 Speaker 3: same satellite internet system that kept Ukraine connected during the 355 00:23:44,000 --> 00:23:50,760 Speaker 3: Russian occupation, could in theory be activated for Iran. That 356 00:23:50,920 --> 00:23:55,520 Speaker 3: is a decision, not a technical limitation. And I want 357 00:23:55,560 --> 00:23:59,679 Speaker 3: to know why it hasn't been done. I don't know 358 00:24:00,160 --> 00:24:04,520 Speaker 3: to ask Elon has must not done it? If not, 359 00:24:04,760 --> 00:24:09,960 Speaker 3: why has SENTCOM or DD or anybody else? The president 360 00:24:10,000 --> 00:24:12,920 Speaker 3: has somebody told him not to? You if so why 361 00:24:14,080 --> 00:24:17,040 Speaker 3: I want to know. I think that is of the 362 00:24:17,119 --> 00:24:19,600 Speaker 3: three things I'm about to describe to you, the first being, 363 00:24:19,960 --> 00:24:25,160 Speaker 3: you know, taking care of everything across all the provinces. 364 00:24:25,840 --> 00:24:29,760 Speaker 3: That's number one. Number two is the Internet restoration, and 365 00:24:29,840 --> 00:24:32,320 Speaker 3: there's the diplomatic track. But before we get to the 366 00:24:32,359 --> 00:24:35,399 Speaker 3: diplomatic track, I want you to think about that Internet restoration. 367 00:24:35,880 --> 00:24:39,480 Speaker 3: I want you to think about yourself for a moment. 368 00:24:40,680 --> 00:24:45,560 Speaker 3: How important is the Internet to you to understand what's 369 00:24:45,600 --> 00:24:49,159 Speaker 3: going on in the world. Even on this program, I 370 00:24:49,240 --> 00:24:53,360 Speaker 3: know some people are listening through an actual broadcast from 371 00:24:53,400 --> 00:24:58,000 Speaker 3: a real antenna somewhere, listening on a real radio. I 372 00:24:58,000 --> 00:25:00,760 Speaker 3: mean there's probably two of you doing that, and then 373 00:25:00,800 --> 00:25:02,640 Speaker 3: the rest of you will be listening because you will 374 00:25:02,720 --> 00:25:06,760 Speaker 3: download via the Internet a podcast segment and you'll listen 375 00:25:06,800 --> 00:25:09,680 Speaker 3: to that, or you're on the iHeart app right now 376 00:25:09,920 --> 00:25:13,199 Speaker 3: and you're streaming it and you're using the Internet to 377 00:25:13,240 --> 00:25:17,159 Speaker 3: do that. So in our day to day lives, in 378 00:25:17,240 --> 00:25:20,160 Speaker 3: my day to day show prep, the Internet is everything. 379 00:25:21,400 --> 00:25:23,359 Speaker 3: I think back to when I first started doing radio. 380 00:25:23,920 --> 00:25:27,439 Speaker 3: Everything was paper. Everything was paper. I mean I was 381 00:25:27,520 --> 00:25:29,560 Speaker 3: printing paper out. I killed trees. I mean I think 382 00:25:29,560 --> 00:25:32,919 Speaker 3: I destroyed the entire Amazon rainforest, but I didn't care 383 00:25:32,920 --> 00:25:36,560 Speaker 3: because I was in show prep. Now everything, almost everything's electronic. 384 00:25:36,640 --> 00:25:39,919 Speaker 3: I've got I have literally two pieces of paper with 385 00:25:39,960 --> 00:25:41,840 Speaker 3: me today. Now I've got a bunch of documents hut. 386 00:25:42,760 --> 00:25:44,639 Speaker 3: But in terms of printing out, there's no reason to 387 00:25:44,640 --> 00:25:47,640 Speaker 3: print them anymore. Just I've got, you know, different browsers. 388 00:25:47,680 --> 00:25:51,240 Speaker 3: I got word up ready to go. I think that's 389 00:25:51,240 --> 00:25:55,760 Speaker 3: one of the most important pillars of seeing true regime change. 390 00:25:55,840 --> 00:25:58,920 Speaker 3: And then, third, the diplomatic track that I mentioned, And 391 00:25:59,080 --> 00:26:03,680 Speaker 3: here's where there is a genuinely interesting opening. The Stemson 392 00:26:03,720 --> 00:26:07,800 Speaker 3: Center identifies Ali Lar Johannie that was the chief of staff, 393 00:26:08,359 --> 00:26:13,399 Speaker 3: as a possible interlocutor. He's a pragmatist who twenty years 394 00:26:13,400 --> 00:26:18,600 Speaker 3: ago actually and this is I have reached out to him, 395 00:26:18,600 --> 00:26:23,120 Speaker 3: but I think I might. Twenty years ago saw nuclear 396 00:26:23,160 --> 00:26:28,439 Speaker 3: talks with then National Security Council Advisor Stephen Hadley, a 397 00:26:28,440 --> 00:26:31,800 Speaker 3: good friend of mine and who provided parliamentary support for 398 00:26:31,840 --> 00:26:37,160 Speaker 3: the twenty fifteen JCPOA. Now, because of we don't when 399 00:26:37,160 --> 00:26:42,000 Speaker 3: you hear JCPOA, don't immediately recoil. I'm just saying that 400 00:26:42,080 --> 00:26:45,840 Speaker 3: this is the guy that at the time was trying 401 00:26:45,880 --> 00:26:53,160 Speaker 3: to actually modify, trying to moderate, and he's still in 402 00:26:53,200 --> 00:26:57,520 Speaker 3: the picture. He might be the best bet for genuine 403 00:26:57,640 --> 00:27:02,160 Speaker 3: change because he's a pragmatist and he has previously sought 404 00:27:02,200 --> 00:27:06,920 Speaker 3: the tount with Washington. Think about the irony. The man 405 00:27:07,000 --> 00:27:10,040 Speaker 3: that Iran just put on television as their wartime face 406 00:27:10,480 --> 00:27:13,160 Speaker 3: is the man who has a history of seeking deals 407 00:27:13,280 --> 00:27:20,960 Speaker 3: with DC. He is simultaneously Iran's hardest public line and 408 00:27:21,119 --> 00:27:27,359 Speaker 3: also potentially its most realistic negotiating channel. This is These 409 00:27:27,440 --> 00:27:33,120 Speaker 3: are the contradictions that I think, I don't think, I know. 410 00:27:33,240 --> 00:27:39,520 Speaker 3: I want you to understand because this is incredibly complicated 411 00:27:40,200 --> 00:27:43,200 Speaker 3: and the dumb ass cabal is never going to give 412 00:27:43,240 --> 00:27:45,160 Speaker 3: you anything other than just the top line. 413 00:27:45,560 --> 00:27:51,000 Speaker 2: And in other bad news, the Washington Post described Comyny 414 00:27:51,200 --> 00:27:55,120 Speaker 2: is having a bushy white bear that easy smile. They 415 00:27:55,160 --> 00:27:57,919 Speaker 2: called him a buncular, which is to find as kind 416 00:27:58,440 --> 00:28:04,439 Speaker 2: friendly in beneficent. Oh my gosh, we've just killed the 417 00:28:04,600 --> 00:28:05,720 Speaker 2: Santa Claus. 418 00:28:05,760 --> 00:28:10,080 Speaker 3: We did, Oh my gosh. And the Washington Post just 419 00:28:10,160 --> 00:28:13,760 Speaker 3: exposed who they really are too. Now there's a fourth 420 00:28:14,080 --> 00:28:20,640 Speaker 3: option here, but it's the most fraut Resident Polavi, the 421 00:28:20,640 --> 00:28:25,320 Speaker 3: son of the former Shaw, the exile Crown Prince the 422 00:28:25,400 --> 00:28:28,400 Speaker 3: National Council of Resistance of Iran has announced a provisional 423 00:28:28,440 --> 00:28:31,720 Speaker 3: government in exile. They proposed a ten point plan for 424 00:28:31,720 --> 00:28:35,280 Speaker 3: a democratic republic, free elections, gener equality, rights from minorities, 425 00:28:35,400 --> 00:28:40,160 Speaker 3: and independent judiciary. All sounds great, right. The National Council 426 00:28:40,160 --> 00:28:44,360 Speaker 3: of Resistance of Iran has a little kind of a 427 00:28:44,480 --> 00:28:48,320 Speaker 3: dark background, so shall we say Marxist. So I'm not 428 00:28:48,360 --> 00:28:51,560 Speaker 3: exactly sure. I trust that I saw Paulavi on sixty 429 00:28:51,600 --> 00:28:54,920 Speaker 3: minutes Sunday night and I thought, wow. I mean, if 430 00:28:55,280 --> 00:28:59,640 Speaker 3: if I could take what you said and genuinely, genuinely 431 00:28:59,680 --> 00:29:03,880 Speaker 3: believe in your heart that that's what you want to accomplish, 432 00:29:04,040 --> 00:29:06,360 Speaker 3: then I would say, yes, let's find some way to 433 00:29:06,360 --> 00:29:09,760 Speaker 3: get you in country and let you start. He says 434 00:29:09,760 --> 00:29:15,080 Speaker 3: he's ready to lead, but here's an honest caveat. Some 435 00:29:15,200 --> 00:29:18,920 Speaker 3: Iranians fear that Polavis wants to return to an absolute monarchy, 436 00:29:19,560 --> 00:29:23,480 Speaker 3: not genuine constitutional democracy. He wants the restoration of the 437 00:29:23,600 --> 00:29:28,720 Speaker 3: US backed monarchy that the nineteen seventy nine Revolution explicitly rejected. 438 00:29:30,040 --> 00:29:33,360 Speaker 3: So the Uranian people have twice in their modern history 439 00:29:33,920 --> 00:29:38,480 Speaker 3: traded one form of authoritarian rule for another. The legitimacy 440 00:29:38,560 --> 00:29:42,440 Speaker 3: question for any transitional government cannot be resolved from outside Iran. 441 00:29:42,800 --> 00:29:47,080 Speaker 3: It has to be resolved by Iranians, the diaspora. That's great. 442 00:29:48,000 --> 00:29:50,360 Speaker 3: I'm glad to see all the diaspora in Los Angeles 443 00:29:50,440 --> 00:29:56,880 Speaker 3: and everybody out protesting, out supporting, you know, the war. Fantastic. 444 00:29:58,600 --> 00:30:02,280 Speaker 3: Let's get you in country. Yes, let's see you doing 445 00:30:02,320 --> 00:30:09,560 Speaker 3: some organizing here. The hardest, honest question of this entire conflict, 446 00:30:10,440 --> 00:30:13,920 Speaker 3: stated as plainly as can be. You can kill the Ayatola, 447 00:30:14,080 --> 00:30:16,680 Speaker 3: you can kill the successors. You can sink the navy, 448 00:30:16,720 --> 00:30:20,120 Speaker 3: destroy the missiles, levelless command centers, you can eliminate the 449 00:30:20,160 --> 00:30:23,400 Speaker 3: IRGC leadership from day on to the provinces. And at 450 00:30:23,440 --> 00:30:26,080 Speaker 3: the end of all of that, you still cannot install 451 00:30:26,160 --> 00:30:31,960 Speaker 3: democracy from the cockpit of an F thirty five. The 452 00:30:32,040 --> 00:30:36,640 Speaker 3: passing a common a mister levuncular, would not by itself, 453 00:30:36,680 --> 00:30:40,760 Speaker 3: and will not, by itself, usher in democracy. The operation 454 00:30:40,920 --> 00:30:45,320 Speaker 3: is succeeding militarily, the strategic bed on Iranian self determination 455 00:30:45,440 --> 00:30:48,200 Speaker 3: is still an open question, and the gap between those 456 00:30:48,200 --> 00:30:50,840 Speaker 3: two sentences is the story of the next several weeks. 457 00:30:53,240 --> 00:30:55,920 Speaker 3: So I think there are four things that you ought 458 00:30:55,960 --> 00:31:01,640 Speaker 3: to watch for. One, does any senior RGC commander publicly 459 00:31:01,680 --> 00:31:05,560 Speaker 3: defect or signal willingness to stand down. That would be 460 00:31:05,600 --> 00:31:11,160 Speaker 3: the single most meaningful indicator of regime fracture. Two Does 461 00:31:11,160 --> 00:31:14,200 Speaker 3: the Internet come back on inside Iran? Because if it does, 462 00:31:14,200 --> 00:31:17,200 Speaker 3: the Iranians can start to coordinate. It stays off, they 463 00:31:17,240 --> 00:31:21,440 Speaker 3: can't that indicator. Watch that, and as closely as you 464 00:31:21,520 --> 00:31:26,440 Speaker 3: watch the missile counts. Three. Who does the Assembly of experts, 465 00:31:26,960 --> 00:31:29,400 Speaker 3: this group that I'll get to in a minute may 466 00:31:29,440 --> 00:31:33,280 Speaker 3: have been eliminated this morning. Who does the Assembly of 467 00:31:33,400 --> 00:31:36,440 Speaker 3: experts actually select as the next supreme leader? And on 468 00:31:36,480 --> 00:31:40,920 Speaker 3: what timetable. If it's the Ietola's son, well, we're the 469 00:31:40,960 --> 00:31:45,440 Speaker 3: North Korea model. If it's Hassan Kominade, the founder's moderate grandson, 470 00:31:46,000 --> 00:31:49,840 Speaker 3: that's the reformist opening Trump's diplomats ought to be sprinting toward. 471 00:31:50,080 --> 00:31:53,400 Speaker 3: If it's pure IRGC figure, the war just got longer 472 00:31:53,440 --> 00:31:59,760 Speaker 3: and more complicated. Four does Ali Larajani pick up the 473 00:31:59,760 --> 00:32:03,680 Speaker 3: phone because of the man who simultaneously declared Iran won't negotiate, 474 00:32:03,960 --> 00:32:07,720 Speaker 3: but has a twenty year history quietly negotiating with Washington, 475 00:32:08,040 --> 00:32:11,720 Speaker 3: either through Aman or Turkey or Switzerland. That's the beginning 476 00:32:11,760 --> 00:32:14,720 Speaker 3: of the end of this chapter. Not a surrender, but 477 00:32:14,840 --> 00:32:19,080 Speaker 3: a deal, and deals are how things actually end. I'm 478 00:32:19,080 --> 00:32:21,000 Speaker 3: not sure which one of those is going to occur. 479 00:32:22,800 --> 00:32:27,680 Speaker 3: The IRGC right now is the regime that's the anchor 480 00:32:27,840 --> 00:32:31,680 Speaker 3: for this entire segment. So how do we get rid 481 00:32:31,720 --> 00:32:35,400 Speaker 3: of that? Well, what you ought to do is stay tuned, 482 00:32:35,440 --> 00:32:40,880 Speaker 3: because there is some breaking news overnight about the leadership, 483 00:32:41,360 --> 00:32:45,400 Speaker 3: they so called assembly of experts getting together, and once 484 00:32:45,440 --> 00:32:49,040 Speaker 3: again it shows two things that the country is fracturing 485 00:32:49,840 --> 00:32:53,240 Speaker 3: and two that the Israeli intelligence and I think our 486 00:32:53,280 --> 00:32:56,040 Speaker 3: intelligence to a certain degree too, but not quite on 487 00:32:56,080 --> 00:33:00,840 Speaker 3: the level of Massad, is absolutely amazing. That's coming up 488 00:33:00,880 --> 00:33:01,400 Speaker 3: next