1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:07,240 Speaker 1: Fifty five krc D talkstation, o F the Thiky five 2 00:00:07,320 --> 00:00:10,920 Speaker 1: kr CV talk station. Brian Thomas always looking forward to 3 00:00:10,960 --> 00:00:12,600 Speaker 1: this time of the week and this moment in time 4 00:00:12,640 --> 00:00:15,000 Speaker 1: on the morning show because it's time for the inside 5 00:00:15,040 --> 00:00:17,439 Speaker 1: scoop with Bright Barton News. And as I always start 6 00:00:17,480 --> 00:00:21,079 Speaker 1: the segment with do Yourself a Favor Bookmarket B R 7 00:00:21,120 --> 00:00:23,360 Speaker 1: E I T B A R T dot com, you'd 8 00:00:23,360 --> 00:00:26,079 Speaker 1: be glad you get did beautiful reporting, wonderful reporting, a 9 00:00:26,120 --> 00:00:28,360 Speaker 1: lot of stuff you're not going to read elsewhere until 10 00:00:28,480 --> 00:00:30,600 Speaker 1: like a year later when the stuff they report on 11 00:00:30,640 --> 00:00:33,640 Speaker 1: bright Bird turns out to be absolutely true and where 12 00:00:33,640 --> 00:00:35,480 Speaker 1: you can read the work of John Carney, the finance 13 00:00:35,520 --> 00:00:38,159 Speaker 1: and economics editor at Bright Barton News. He has been 14 00:00:38,200 --> 00:00:41,360 Speaker 1: around the finance business for like ever his old career. 15 00:00:41,400 --> 00:00:44,240 Speaker 1: He started out of a blog for About Wall Street, 16 00:00:44,560 --> 00:00:46,880 Speaker 1: heading up the deal Breaker blog back in the mid 17 00:00:46,880 --> 00:00:52,360 Speaker 1: two thousands, went over the Business Insider CNBC Wall Street Journal, 18 00:00:52,400 --> 00:00:55,360 Speaker 1: where he was he was responsible for the Herd on 19 00:00:55,360 --> 00:00:57,480 Speaker 1: the Street column. His works appeared to New York Times, 20 00:00:57,560 --> 00:01:00,080 Speaker 1: New York Magazine, Fortune, New York Post, New York Sun. 21 00:01:00,200 --> 00:01:01,560 Speaker 1: I could go on, but we wouldn't be able to 22 00:01:01,600 --> 00:01:04,880 Speaker 1: talk about the Empower Youth Seminar that John Carney is 23 00:01:04,920 --> 00:01:09,240 Speaker 1: doing tonight on question Mark. Will interest Rates be coming down? 24 00:01:09,319 --> 00:01:11,480 Speaker 1: Welcome back, John Carney. It's a pleasure having you on 25 00:01:11,520 --> 00:01:12,320 Speaker 1: the program Sir. 26 00:01:13,840 --> 00:01:15,679 Speaker 2: Thanks for having me. You just sent me on a 27 00:01:15,720 --> 00:01:18,280 Speaker 2: nostalgia trip all the stuff I've done over the years. 28 00:01:18,360 --> 00:01:18,839 Speaker 2: That was great. 29 00:01:18,959 --> 00:01:21,600 Speaker 1: Hard to believe how time has flown, isn't it? John? 30 00:01:22,600 --> 00:01:25,560 Speaker 2: It really is incredible. You know, when I started this, 31 00:01:25,680 --> 00:01:29,080 Speaker 2: we were just going into the two thousand and eighth 32 00:01:29,120 --> 00:01:33,679 Speaker 2: financial crisis, and you know, here we are just and 33 00:01:33,720 --> 00:01:35,760 Speaker 2: it seems like we never run out of crises. We 34 00:01:36,560 --> 00:01:37,319 Speaker 2: kept in business. 35 00:01:37,360 --> 00:01:40,600 Speaker 1: Well we're on that note, John Kearney. Isn't that sort 36 00:01:40,600 --> 00:01:43,280 Speaker 1: of kind of intentional? I mean, I've been doing radio. 37 00:01:43,319 --> 00:01:45,240 Speaker 1: Next year is my twentieth year on radio. But I've 38 00:01:45,240 --> 00:01:48,760 Speaker 1: been following politics since I was like sixteen years old. 39 00:01:49,520 --> 00:01:53,520 Speaker 1: Reagan's second election was when I really got engaged in politics, 40 00:01:53,520 --> 00:01:55,320 Speaker 1: and I've never turned back. It was a topic of 41 00:01:55,400 --> 00:01:58,040 Speaker 1: conversation and at the dinner table. I've really been engaged 42 00:01:58,080 --> 00:02:01,400 Speaker 1: for my entire life. So it's always in crisis. I mean, 43 00:02:02,480 --> 00:02:04,240 Speaker 1: part of I think part of the reality, well, this 44 00:02:04,280 --> 00:02:06,720 Speaker 1: is the idea, is we always kept in a mentality 45 00:02:06,800 --> 00:02:08,680 Speaker 1: of crisis mode. You know, the world's going to end, 46 00:02:08,680 --> 00:02:10,240 Speaker 1: We're all going to die, the market's going to crash, 47 00:02:10,240 --> 00:02:12,200 Speaker 1: the market's going to go up, and you know, we 48 00:02:12,240 --> 00:02:15,200 Speaker 1: don't follow up to find out, well, was that prediction true? 49 00:02:15,240 --> 00:02:18,240 Speaker 1: From last year? Is just once they announced these terrible 50 00:02:18,240 --> 00:02:20,519 Speaker 1: headlines that we move on and go about with our lives. 51 00:02:20,520 --> 00:02:22,640 Speaker 1: Should we ever feel like we're in crisis? 52 00:02:24,000 --> 00:02:26,640 Speaker 2: Yeah, no, that's a great point. Look, one of the 53 00:02:26,680 --> 00:02:31,520 Speaker 2: things that's definitely true is that the media has predicted 54 00:02:31,840 --> 00:02:37,000 Speaker 2: just about eight out of the last two crisises, meaning 55 00:02:37,040 --> 00:02:41,960 Speaker 2: there is constantly a crisis, you know, on the horizon 56 00:02:42,160 --> 00:02:45,720 Speaker 2: or actually happening. I remember the first Trump administration. We 57 00:02:45,720 --> 00:02:49,240 Speaker 2: were told constantly that we were going to have inflation 58 00:02:49,400 --> 00:02:52,240 Speaker 2: because of the terifts he put on China, and I 59 00:02:52,440 --> 00:02:55,840 Speaker 2: covered that every month in and out all three of 60 00:02:55,880 --> 00:02:59,080 Speaker 2: the major inflation reports that the government produces, and there 61 00:02:59,120 --> 00:03:03,240 Speaker 2: was no inflation. And it really wasn't until the pandemic 62 00:03:03,320 --> 00:03:07,160 Speaker 2: struck that finally started, when people were distracted by a 63 00:03:07,280 --> 00:03:11,160 Speaker 2: real crisis, that the media started to admit, oh, okay, 64 00:03:11,320 --> 00:03:13,840 Speaker 2: you know, we were wrong. There was no inflation because 65 00:03:13,880 --> 00:03:14,520 Speaker 2: of the tariffs. 66 00:03:14,840 --> 00:03:17,800 Speaker 1: But there was inflation because of the Inflation Reduction Act 67 00:03:17,840 --> 00:03:20,600 Speaker 1: and the COVID nineteen response money and the trillions of 68 00:03:20,639 --> 00:03:23,520 Speaker 1: dollars that were thrown into the economy from printed dollars 69 00:03:23,520 --> 00:03:25,280 Speaker 1: that watered down the value of our currency. 70 00:03:26,840 --> 00:03:30,799 Speaker 2: That's right. And they said that inflation wouldn't happen, So 71 00:03:30,919 --> 00:03:33,720 Speaker 2: they predicted the inflation that didn't happen would happen, and 72 00:03:33,760 --> 00:03:37,920 Speaker 2: the prediction, and they predicted that the inflation that actually 73 00:03:37,960 --> 00:03:40,800 Speaker 2: did happen was the worst in forty years. You know, 74 00:03:41,360 --> 00:03:43,760 Speaker 2: wasn't really happening. And by the way, we'd go away 75 00:03:43,800 --> 00:03:47,080 Speaker 2: almost immediately. Here we are five years later and we're 76 00:03:47,120 --> 00:03:48,000 Speaker 2: still dealing with it. 77 00:03:48,120 --> 00:03:51,200 Speaker 1: Well, the pesky reality of inflation is while the inflation 78 00:03:51,560 --> 00:03:54,160 Speaker 1: rate can go up or down, as the case may be, 79 00:03:54,320 --> 00:03:56,120 Speaker 1: I mean, I'm old enough to remember the seventies when 80 00:03:56,120 --> 00:04:01,400 Speaker 1: we had stagflation, but the prices never really go down. 81 00:04:02,120 --> 00:04:04,560 Speaker 1: I mean, you see a two percent increase in inflation, 82 00:04:04,920 --> 00:04:07,600 Speaker 1: and you've been struggling with seven or eight percent inflation. 83 00:04:08,200 --> 00:04:10,920 Speaker 1: It's like, I'm never going to see say, two dollars 84 00:04:10,960 --> 00:04:13,240 Speaker 1: ninety nine cent per pound beef again. I'm never going 85 00:04:13,320 --> 00:04:15,320 Speaker 1: to see a bag of chips that actually has sixteen 86 00:04:15,400 --> 00:04:17,480 Speaker 1: ounces in it for three ninety nine as opposed to 87 00:04:17,520 --> 00:04:19,600 Speaker 1: the twelve ounces you get for three ninety nine. It 88 00:04:19,760 --> 00:04:22,400 Speaker 1: just doesn't come down, that's. 89 00:04:22,279 --> 00:04:24,520 Speaker 2: Right, The prices don't come down. The most you can 90 00:04:24,640 --> 00:04:29,359 Speaker 2: hope for is that you have low inflation for a 91 00:04:29,400 --> 00:04:33,480 Speaker 2: few years, which may sort of bring you back on track. 92 00:04:33,880 --> 00:04:35,920 Speaker 2: But the truth is that once you have a period 93 00:04:35,960 --> 00:04:39,320 Speaker 2: of high inflation, as you said, you jump up nine percent, 94 00:04:39,640 --> 00:04:43,520 Speaker 2: then even if you get normal levels of inflation around 95 00:04:43,600 --> 00:04:47,839 Speaker 2: two percent after that, you're permanently at a higher price 96 00:04:47,960 --> 00:04:50,640 Speaker 2: level than you should be. You can hope that you 97 00:04:50,680 --> 00:04:53,480 Speaker 2: can grow the economy in a way that lets wages 98 00:04:53,640 --> 00:04:57,120 Speaker 2: catch up with that, but that takes a very long time. Basically, 99 00:04:57,680 --> 00:05:00,440 Speaker 2: and this is a I hate to have to deliver 100 00:05:00,520 --> 00:05:03,760 Speaker 2: this bad news to people, but we are permanently, because 101 00:05:03,839 --> 00:05:08,120 Speaker 2: of the irresponsibility of the Biden administration and Howells fed 102 00:05:08,279 --> 00:05:12,880 Speaker 2: during those years, we are permanently stuck at a high 103 00:05:12,920 --> 00:05:17,480 Speaker 2: price level that is not going to feel right at 104 00:05:17,560 --> 00:05:20,520 Speaker 2: least for another ten years. You're going to feel You're 105 00:05:20,600 --> 00:05:23,040 Speaker 2: still going to feel sticker shocked when you walk into 106 00:05:23,279 --> 00:05:25,680 Speaker 2: a store, or order a meal at a restaurant, or 107 00:05:25,720 --> 00:05:28,880 Speaker 2: try to buy tickets to something. Prices are going to 108 00:05:28,960 --> 00:05:30,720 Speaker 2: feel too high for quite a while. 109 00:05:30,760 --> 00:05:33,200 Speaker 1: All right, Now, if John Carney was chairman of the FED, 110 00:05:33,279 --> 00:05:35,520 Speaker 1: and you could turn back the tables of time to say, 111 00:05:35,640 --> 00:05:38,520 Speaker 1: right when Biden got elected, I mean we had three 112 00:05:38,560 --> 00:05:42,280 Speaker 1: percent mortgage rates at the time, roughly right, I mean 113 00:05:42,360 --> 00:05:46,279 Speaker 1: that was extraordinarily low. And I have to say out loud, 114 00:05:46,279 --> 00:05:47,839 Speaker 1: my listeners have been listening to me for a long time. No, 115 00:05:47,920 --> 00:05:50,200 Speaker 1: but when my wife and I first bought our house, 116 00:05:50,520 --> 00:05:53,360 Speaker 1: this was nineteen ninety one. We were living in Oak Park, Illinois. 117 00:05:53,400 --> 00:05:55,279 Speaker 1: That's where we bought the house. Anyway, I had to 118 00:05:55,320 --> 00:05:59,039 Speaker 1: pay three points to buy down to an eight and 119 00:05:59,160 --> 00:06:02,320 Speaker 1: one eighth percent interest rate on a on a seven 120 00:06:02,360 --> 00:06:04,880 Speaker 1: to twenty three balloon. That's I mean, I'm, you know, 121 00:06:04,960 --> 00:06:07,679 Speaker 1: crime a river at six percent. I understand it's double 122 00:06:07,680 --> 00:06:09,840 Speaker 1: what it was a few years ago, but I mean 123 00:06:09,920 --> 00:06:13,640 Speaker 1: six percent still seems within the realm of reality. That's 124 00:06:13,839 --> 00:06:15,440 Speaker 1: the big thorn in a lot of people's side that 125 00:06:15,480 --> 00:06:17,719 Speaker 1: they got so used to these really low interest rates. 126 00:06:18,000 --> 00:06:20,880 Speaker 1: The economy was kind of booming, real estate market was booming. 127 00:06:20,880 --> 00:06:23,279 Speaker 1: Would you have raised the interest rates back then? Is 128 00:06:23,279 --> 00:06:25,120 Speaker 1: that a failure of the Fed? Back then. 129 00:06:26,560 --> 00:06:28,760 Speaker 2: Yes, the first thing I think they should have done 130 00:06:29,320 --> 00:06:32,479 Speaker 2: is made it clear that if the Biden administration went 131 00:06:32,640 --> 00:06:37,080 Speaker 2: ahead with its plans to spend trillions, that this would 132 00:06:37,120 --> 00:06:39,920 Speaker 2: be inflationary and that the FED would try to offset 133 00:06:39,960 --> 00:06:43,440 Speaker 2: this by raising rates. Look, the FED can't control, you know, 134 00:06:43,560 --> 00:06:47,480 Speaker 2: Joe Biden's spending programs, but they can do the opposite 135 00:06:47,560 --> 00:06:49,800 Speaker 2: what they did instead. What they did is they sent 136 00:06:49,839 --> 00:06:53,040 Speaker 2: the all clear message to Joe Biden to go ahead, 137 00:06:53,480 --> 00:06:57,479 Speaker 2: spend your trillions, and we will not interfere. We won't 138 00:06:57,560 --> 00:07:01,560 Speaker 2: raise rates, we will not make it so that we 139 00:07:01,600 --> 00:07:04,599 Speaker 2: will not try to offset this at all. And that's 140 00:07:04,640 --> 00:07:07,640 Speaker 2: what set off the wild inflation. I think if the 141 00:07:07,680 --> 00:07:12,880 Speaker 2: FED had been less complicit in the Biden administration's reckless spending, 142 00:07:13,600 --> 00:07:15,680 Speaker 2: if they had just even signaled that they were going 143 00:07:15,720 --> 00:07:17,800 Speaker 2: to offset it, it probably would have made Biden back 144 00:07:17,800 --> 00:07:20,160 Speaker 2: off a little bit, and then that we would have 145 00:07:20,160 --> 00:07:23,280 Speaker 2: had far less inflation. Instead, they worked hand in hand. 146 00:07:23,680 --> 00:07:27,040 Speaker 2: That was a disaster and we got this crazy inflation. 147 00:07:27,120 --> 00:07:28,920 Speaker 2: So they should have told Biden not to do it, 148 00:07:29,200 --> 00:07:30,920 Speaker 2: and if he went ahead and did it, then yes, 149 00:07:30,960 --> 00:07:33,400 Speaker 2: they should have raised rates much earlier, and they should 150 00:07:33,400 --> 00:07:37,280 Speaker 2: have never said that the inflation was transitory. That was 151 00:07:37,840 --> 00:07:42,240 Speaker 2: that in itself signaled to the market, to businesses, to 152 00:07:42,440 --> 00:07:45,560 Speaker 2: consumers that the Fed wasn't on top of things, that 153 00:07:45,600 --> 00:07:48,160 Speaker 2: they were going to let inflation get out of control, 154 00:07:48,320 --> 00:07:48,840 Speaker 2: and they did. 155 00:07:49,080 --> 00:07:51,480 Speaker 1: Well, this is you know, directly tied to the bond market. 156 00:07:51,520 --> 00:07:56,560 Speaker 2: Correct, that's absolutely right. Look, part of the thing is 157 00:07:56,600 --> 00:08:00,840 Speaker 2: that when the government is deficit spending like crazy and 158 00:08:00,880 --> 00:08:04,360 Speaker 2: the FED starts to raise interest rates, it actually then 159 00:08:04,680 --> 00:08:09,360 Speaker 2: makes the Feds the government's borrowing more expensive, right, and 160 00:08:09,520 --> 00:08:11,920 Speaker 2: they didn't want to do that. It raises the deficit 161 00:08:12,000 --> 00:08:14,760 Speaker 2: even more. And so they were trying to help Biden 162 00:08:14,840 --> 00:08:18,640 Speaker 2: by letting him do all this deficit spending while being 163 00:08:18,640 --> 00:08:22,240 Speaker 2: able to borrow cheap. That was a disaster. They should 164 00:08:22,240 --> 00:08:25,800 Speaker 2: not have been complicit with. They really needed to be. 165 00:08:26,000 --> 00:08:29,080 Speaker 2: You know, people talk about FED independence all the time. 166 00:08:29,720 --> 00:08:34,080 Speaker 2: The FED lost its independence during the early Biden administration. 167 00:08:34,200 --> 00:08:39,040 Speaker 2: They instead became an agent of the Biden administration. And 168 00:08:39,080 --> 00:08:42,680 Speaker 2: that was a that had disastrous results, which is exactly 169 00:08:42,720 --> 00:08:46,719 Speaker 2: what we would think would happen when they become the 170 00:08:46,760 --> 00:08:50,439 Speaker 2: agent of a you know, a pre spending political regime. 171 00:08:50,600 --> 00:08:53,839 Speaker 1: Well, in this this spending free for all and this 172 00:08:54,120 --> 00:08:57,640 Speaker 1: faux low interest rate was all supported by and covered 173 00:08:57,720 --> 00:09:00,800 Speaker 1: up and masked by the whole Oh my god, COVID nineteen, 174 00:09:00,880 --> 00:09:02,319 Speaker 1: We're all going to die, right. 175 00:09:03,520 --> 00:09:07,600 Speaker 2: That's right. Look, they kept it it so it made 176 00:09:07,640 --> 00:09:10,600 Speaker 2: a lot of sense, especially early on in the pandemic 177 00:09:11,080 --> 00:09:16,120 Speaker 2: when they were ordering businesses to close and they basically 178 00:09:16,679 --> 00:09:19,760 Speaker 2: we're freezing the economy to say, okay, well we're going 179 00:09:19,840 --> 00:09:24,079 Speaker 2: to fight some of the downturn with very low interest rates. 180 00:09:24,520 --> 00:09:27,880 Speaker 2: But as soon as we started to reopen things, which 181 00:09:27,960 --> 00:09:31,200 Speaker 2: means just a few months into this thing, right, they 182 00:09:31,240 --> 00:09:33,800 Speaker 2: should have said, okay, we can back off of the 183 00:09:34,400 --> 00:09:36,920 Speaker 2: ultra low interest rates. We don't need to send out 184 00:09:36,920 --> 00:09:41,360 Speaker 2: more stimulus checks. People were flooding into restaurants in places 185 00:09:41,360 --> 00:09:44,400 Speaker 2: they could with the relief of thank god, I can 186 00:09:44,800 --> 00:09:49,640 Speaker 2: go out again. And yet we were still sending stimulus 187 00:09:49,720 --> 00:09:52,440 Speaker 2: checks to people and the Fed was still holding interest 188 00:09:52,559 --> 00:09:54,920 Speaker 2: rates at near zero. That was a bad. 189 00:09:54,760 --> 00:09:58,559 Speaker 1: Combination, bad combination, and like all government programs, ready fire 190 00:09:58,640 --> 00:10:01,640 Speaker 1: aim replete with fraud, waste, and abuse because no one 191 00:10:01,679 --> 00:10:03,360 Speaker 1: cared where the money was going, and it went out 192 00:10:03,360 --> 00:10:05,600 Speaker 1: to a bunch of nefarious actors. Sorry for interjecting that, 193 00:10:05,679 --> 00:10:08,000 Speaker 1: John Carney, but this kind of thing has been driving 194 00:10:08,000 --> 00:10:09,920 Speaker 1: me more crazy of late than I think it ever 195 00:10:09,960 --> 00:10:12,280 Speaker 1: has in my life, as all these programs are revealed 196 00:10:12,320 --> 00:10:16,280 Speaker 1: for the fraud riddled programs that they are now. Tonight's 197 00:10:16,320 --> 00:10:20,640 Speaker 1: conversation it's empower you America dot org. Empower You America 198 00:10:20,720 --> 00:10:23,880 Speaker 1: dot org gets log in only begins at seven pm. 199 00:10:23,960 --> 00:10:27,920 Speaker 1: Please register in advance for the seminar. And that's where 200 00:10:27,960 --> 00:10:30,640 Speaker 1: John Carney's going to be speaking about and maybe answering 201 00:10:30,640 --> 00:10:33,959 Speaker 1: the question will interest rates be coming down? Thinking of 202 00:10:34,000 --> 00:10:36,200 Speaker 1: those that have been priced out of the homeowner market, 203 00:10:36,240 --> 00:10:38,680 Speaker 1: I don't think the housing availability is ever going to increase, 204 00:10:38,679 --> 00:10:40,839 Speaker 1: at least not in the near term. John, So what 205 00:10:40,960 --> 00:10:43,080 Speaker 1: impact or what effect? First off, do you think the 206 00:10:43,160 --> 00:10:45,439 Speaker 1: rates will be coming down? What are the indicators that 207 00:10:45,440 --> 00:10:48,480 Speaker 1: would suggest the FED might lower them? Or might the 208 00:10:48,520 --> 00:10:51,040 Speaker 1: Fed just leave things status quo? Which is kind of 209 00:10:51,040 --> 00:10:54,000 Speaker 1: the position I think I'm leaning toward, at least if 210 00:10:54,040 --> 00:10:56,200 Speaker 1: I had to read tea leaves. But no financial expert 211 00:10:56,240 --> 00:10:56,440 Speaker 1: of my. 212 00:10:58,080 --> 00:11:02,800 Speaker 2: So I think the FED very likely maybe cutting at 213 00:11:02,880 --> 00:11:05,839 Speaker 2: the meeting in December, but then they are not going 214 00:11:05,880 --> 00:11:10,480 Speaker 2: to cut for probably the rest of Powell's tenure as 215 00:11:10,800 --> 00:11:16,040 Speaker 2: FED chairman. That means he leaves in May, so we 216 00:11:16,080 --> 00:11:18,320 Speaker 2: may get one more cut. Then the Fed will sit 217 00:11:18,480 --> 00:11:21,800 Speaker 2: tight and see how that goes through the economy. I 218 00:11:21,840 --> 00:11:25,840 Speaker 2: don't think that will do very much for the interest 219 00:11:25,920 --> 00:11:28,280 Speaker 2: rates that matter. Remember, the Fed target's a very short 220 00:11:28,360 --> 00:11:31,520 Speaker 2: term interest rate. The rates that matter are built off 221 00:11:31,559 --> 00:11:38,080 Speaker 2: of that, but they're really built on what investors think 222 00:11:38,160 --> 00:11:40,440 Speaker 2: the path of interest rates will be. So if the 223 00:11:40,440 --> 00:11:43,600 Speaker 2: Fed signals it's going to sit tight for longer, that 224 00:11:43,720 --> 00:11:46,840 Speaker 2: will keep interest rates higher. I'm not sure, and I'll 225 00:11:46,840 --> 00:11:49,600 Speaker 2: talk about this more tonight, but I'm not sure actually 226 00:11:50,080 --> 00:11:53,840 Speaker 2: cutting interest rates will do as much as people hope 227 00:11:54,320 --> 00:11:59,120 Speaker 2: for home affordability. That is a very tricky thing because look, 228 00:11:59,160 --> 00:12:01,800 Speaker 2: when you cut interest traits, one of the things that 229 00:12:01,880 --> 00:12:05,320 Speaker 2: happens is because people can borrow cheaper, they're willing to 230 00:12:05,360 --> 00:12:07,800 Speaker 2: pay more for homes, and it tends to push up 231 00:12:07,840 --> 00:12:10,960 Speaker 2: home prices. Right, So it's not the panacea that people think. 232 00:12:11,080 --> 00:12:12,640 Speaker 1: Well, John, the only thing that's going to solve that 233 00:12:12,679 --> 00:12:16,040 Speaker 1: problem is more supply. I mean, we need more supplin 234 00:12:16,080 --> 00:12:18,040 Speaker 1: we need. It's more supply of what I would call 235 00:12:18,160 --> 00:12:20,920 Speaker 1: truly affordable housing. I'm not talking about something like government 236 00:12:20,960 --> 00:12:23,720 Speaker 1: subsidized but I'm talking about, you know, don't buy a 237 00:12:23,800 --> 00:12:27,000 Speaker 1: five thousand, eight thousand square foot mansion mcmanchain. Once you 238 00:12:27,000 --> 00:12:29,760 Speaker 1: buy something that's a little bit more reasonable, smaller in size, 239 00:12:29,840 --> 00:12:33,400 Speaker 1: easier to build, a more affordable, less to maintain, less 240 00:12:33,400 --> 00:12:36,000 Speaker 1: to furnish. I mean, across the board, Owning a smaller 241 00:12:36,000 --> 00:12:38,719 Speaker 1: home is far more financially prudent from my perspective. 242 00:12:40,400 --> 00:12:44,080 Speaker 2: Yes, and one of the things we need those that's 243 00:12:44,520 --> 00:12:48,960 Speaker 2: a longer term problem. In other words, it's not something 244 00:12:48,960 --> 00:12:53,120 Speaker 2: that a president can fix, you know, within a year. Right, 245 00:12:53,200 --> 00:12:57,400 Speaker 2: that's a longer term building problem. It is also, frankly, 246 00:12:57,760 --> 00:13:04,120 Speaker 2: a problem that cuts across political barriers, where you have 247 00:13:04,280 --> 00:13:07,000 Speaker 2: environmentalists who are really worried that you might have to 248 00:13:07,040 --> 00:13:10,640 Speaker 2: build some more roads if you're going to build houses 249 00:13:10,720 --> 00:13:14,400 Speaker 2: or more houses, because each of those houses is going 250 00:13:14,440 --> 00:13:17,320 Speaker 2: to have a family that's driving, so you need more 251 00:13:17,400 --> 00:13:20,120 Speaker 2: roads out there. They don't like that because they think 252 00:13:20,160 --> 00:13:25,320 Speaker 2: it'll cause climate change to accelerate. So there's a lot 253 00:13:25,320 --> 00:13:28,520 Speaker 2: of barriers to trying to get it done. We can, 254 00:13:29,040 --> 00:13:31,319 Speaker 2: I believe, and I think we will over time solve 255 00:13:31,320 --> 00:13:33,480 Speaker 2: this problem, but it's not something that's going to go 256 00:13:33,520 --> 00:13:39,400 Speaker 2: away quickly. Frankly, Also, Donald Trump's immigration policies are very 257 00:13:39,400 --> 00:13:41,360 Speaker 2: helpful in this regard. I know a lot of people 258 00:13:41,400 --> 00:13:43,600 Speaker 2: say the opposite. They say, oh no, a lot of 259 00:13:43,640 --> 00:13:47,400 Speaker 2: the illegal immigrants are engaged in building, but they have 260 00:13:47,480 --> 00:13:49,400 Speaker 2: to but before they can build one house, they have 261 00:13:49,480 --> 00:13:52,480 Speaker 2: to live in one. And they were frankly, when you 262 00:13:52,480 --> 00:13:54,680 Speaker 2: have twelve million people come in over just a few 263 00:13:54,720 --> 00:13:57,200 Speaker 2: short years, you are using up a lot of your 264 00:13:57,240 --> 00:14:01,600 Speaker 2: housing stock. Cutting down on that will actually provide some relief. 265 00:14:01,960 --> 00:14:04,880 Speaker 2: It creates supply for people who are legally here. 266 00:14:05,480 --> 00:14:08,680 Speaker 1: Right our financial editor John Karney talking about tonight seven 267 00:14:08,800 --> 00:14:11,560 Speaker 1: ARS seven pm Empower at You America Dot or one 268 00:14:11,559 --> 00:14:13,360 Speaker 1: more thing I have to ask you about John before 269 00:14:13,360 --> 00:14:15,920 Speaker 1: we part company this morning. In very enlightening conversation, It's 270 00:14:15,960 --> 00:14:20,040 Speaker 1: been the job market, the jobs that are out there 271 00:14:20,040 --> 00:14:22,200 Speaker 1: that are available, the level of employment. That all is 272 00:14:22,240 --> 00:14:24,600 Speaker 1: part of what the FED factors in a determining interest rates. 273 00:14:24,920 --> 00:14:29,200 Speaker 1: Do you see sort of a very quick upheaval in 274 00:14:29,240 --> 00:14:31,720 Speaker 1: the job market is brought about by artificial intelligence. I 275 00:14:31,720 --> 00:14:33,920 Speaker 1: mean more and more people are losing their jobs to AI. 276 00:14:34,040 --> 00:14:36,920 Speaker 1: A lot of people can be replaced now with artificial intelligence. 277 00:14:37,120 --> 00:14:40,000 Speaker 1: Is there going to be sort of a sudden mass firing, 278 00:14:40,160 --> 00:14:42,280 Speaker 1: you know, over a very much shorter period of time 279 00:14:42,320 --> 00:14:44,080 Speaker 1: than we typically see what the job market. Do you 280 00:14:44,120 --> 00:14:46,800 Speaker 1: foresee something like that happening and might that impact the 281 00:14:47,080 --> 00:14:48,800 Speaker 1: whole FED decision in the future. 282 00:14:50,360 --> 00:14:52,880 Speaker 2: I don't think we're going to see a sudden shift. 283 00:14:53,240 --> 00:14:55,720 Speaker 2: One problem with trying to read the labor market right now. 284 00:14:56,000 --> 00:14:59,240 Speaker 2: This normally would be a jobs week where we would 285 00:14:59,280 --> 00:15:02,560 Speaker 2: have a job for on jobs Friday, first Friday of 286 00:15:02,600 --> 00:15:05,040 Speaker 2: every month. We're not going to have that this week. 287 00:15:05,920 --> 00:15:09,320 Speaker 2: We're actually, and we've been we're missing jobs reports because 288 00:15:09,320 --> 00:15:12,320 Speaker 2: of the government shutdown at the Democrats cause because they 289 00:15:12,320 --> 00:15:16,000 Speaker 2: wouldn't vote for appropriations. I think so it's a little 290 00:15:16,000 --> 00:15:17,800 Speaker 2: hard to tell what's going on right now, and I 291 00:15:17,840 --> 00:15:20,040 Speaker 2: don't think we're going to get a sudden AI jump. 292 00:15:20,480 --> 00:15:25,240 Speaker 2: I think the AIS immediate factor will be something on 293 00:15:25,360 --> 00:15:30,280 Speaker 2: the realm of around displacing five percent of jobs. Over 294 00:15:30,360 --> 00:15:33,040 Speaker 2: the longer term, we may get more, but that means 295 00:15:33,080 --> 00:15:36,560 Speaker 2: a meeting that would have twenty people will have nineteen instead, 296 00:15:37,160 --> 00:15:40,880 Speaker 2: and the economy will be able to adapt to that 297 00:15:41,000 --> 00:15:44,640 Speaker 2: relatively quickly. Over the long term, there may be a 298 00:15:44,720 --> 00:15:48,080 Speaker 2: big shift in the kind of jobs people do. But 299 00:15:48,760 --> 00:15:51,440 Speaker 2: I don't think we're going to see like half the 300 00:15:51,520 --> 00:15:54,120 Speaker 2: jobs go away sometime next year. 301 00:15:54,400 --> 00:15:57,600 Speaker 1: It's a plus, John Carney, Tonight seven pm. Log in 302 00:15:57,600 --> 00:15:59,800 Speaker 1: and Poweroamerica dot org. Hell, log in right now so 303 00:15:59,840 --> 00:16:02,760 Speaker 1: you register. Starts at seven pm. It's going to be fascinating. 304 00:16:03,000 --> 00:16:05,080 Speaker 1: Tell your friends about it. And again, you don't have 305 00:16:05,120 --> 00:16:06,680 Speaker 1: to drive out on the roads to see this one. 306 00:16:06,720 --> 00:16:08,840 Speaker 1: It's virtual only. John, Thanks for your time today. I 307 00:16:08,840 --> 00:16:11,800 Speaker 1: appreciate you doing the empower you seminar, and appreciate everything 308 00:16:11,840 --> 00:16:14,000 Speaker 1: you're doing in Breitbart. It's just a great website and 309 00:16:14,040 --> 00:16:16,480 Speaker 1: I encourage my listeners to check it out regularly. John. 310 00:16:16,560 --> 00:16:18,360 Speaker 1: Until we talk again, Man, have a great day. 311 00:16:19,800 --> 00:16:20,560 Speaker 2: Thanks for having me. 312 00:16:20,640 --> 00:16:21,880 Speaker 1: This has been great, My pleasure.