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Speaker 1: Michael.

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Speaker 2: If there's one thing I thought he could count on

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Speaker 2: and these topsy Turvy messed up times, it was my

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Speaker 2: new and improved iHeart app. So what happens today? I

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Speaker 2: try to listen to the Weekend with Michael Brown, want

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Speaker 2: to catch up on what's going on, and I have

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Speaker 2: to scroll past hour two to play hour one, and

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Speaker 2: when hour one is done, it jumps to hour three,

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Speaker 2: so I have to stop and go back and scrolled

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Speaker 2: hour two.

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Speaker 1: And you noticed that whoever was given him the GPS

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Speaker 1: instructions about turn right, that's when he stopped because he

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Speaker 1: was obviously lost and he didn't know what he was doing. So,

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Speaker 1: you know, leave a talk back bitch, you moan about

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Speaker 1: the free to you iHeartRadio app, and can we help

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Speaker 1: with that? You know? Now, listen, that was last week.

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Speaker 1: Last week thing. He wanted us to put it back

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Speaker 1: in the original order, And I'm thinking that you don't

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Speaker 1: come March first next week, or maybe during daylight Savings

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Speaker 1: time that would be a great time to do it.

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Speaker 1: Daylight Saving time would be a perfect time to then

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Speaker 1: revert back to the other way. You know, we could

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Speaker 1: just do that like every daylight saving time, we go

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Speaker 1: from the normal order to the reverse word. How about

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Speaker 1: that dragon would do?

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Speaker 3: That is the one coming up where we lose the hour?

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Speaker 1: Spring forwards? All I know you fall back and you

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Speaker 1: spring forward, So I guess if you spring forward, so

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Speaker 1: I guess you lose an hour. But I've never quite

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Speaker 1: understood how do you lose an hour? Because like if

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Speaker 1: when when I when I finally get to my death bed,

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Speaker 1: which I know many of you are hoping like occurs

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Speaker 1: the day on air? Uh do I get to wait?

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Speaker 1: Wait wait, wait, wait wait. You know I went through

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Speaker 1: X number of decades of daylight saving time, and so

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Speaker 1: I've got these hours that I lost. I went those,

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Speaker 1: I went those, you know what forty seven hours back

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Speaker 1: or something. I get that. I don't know where's it go?

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Speaker 1: Don't you don't, don't you don't. We still have twenty

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Speaker 1: four hours a day. It's a clock mechanism, bull crap,

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Speaker 1: made up, stupid and by the way, it happens in

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Speaker 1: a couple of weeks. It happens in like March eight,

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Speaker 1: I think. But don't don't just shrug your shoulders. I'm

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Speaker 1: not gonna go look it up. Well, I'm not asking

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Speaker 1: you to look it up. I'm telling you. I think

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Speaker 1: it's March eight. You could be very wrong, and I

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Speaker 1: could be very very correct. Is this is? This? Is

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Speaker 1: this how the rest of the week's gonna go? Is

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Speaker 1: this how we're starting out today?

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Speaker 3: I was having a great day till about eight thirty.

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Speaker 3: I saw the elevators open up and out you walked,

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Speaker 3: and then I was like, okay, great, he's here, trust me.

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Speaker 3: But he didn't talk to me. So it's been glorious

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Speaker 3: for that half now hour, could.

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Speaker 1: As I look over my shoulder into our glorious reception

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Speaker 1: area that is always empty, if I could find anyway,

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Speaker 1: I guess I could walk the stairs. I could walk

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Speaker 1: up the stairs, or get off on the third floor,

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Speaker 1: because you know that that's like a lot of steps,

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Speaker 1: you know, walk all the way up there, four full flights.

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Speaker 1: Four I mean, I'm maybe I could just you know,

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Speaker 1: get off on third and just you know, came in

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Speaker 1: that way. You wouldn't see me. How about that? Well,

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Speaker 1: I'll just start flipping at the bird as I walk in.

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Speaker 1: How about that?

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Speaker 2: Yeah?

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Speaker 4: But Ross and Jean are still in here. They have

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Speaker 4: their to our wonderful that's supposed to be. Do you

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Speaker 4: want to go to Mexico?

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Speaker 1: With me.

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Speaker 5: We got a new video this morning showing the violence

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Speaker 5: and destruction of cross parts of Mexico falling to death

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Speaker 5: of that country's most wanted drug cartelpots and Messi A

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Speaker 5: Saguera Savante is also known as El Mensho Powerful the

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Speaker 5: Olisco New generation cartel was killed in a special operation

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Speaker 5: carried out by Mexican.

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Speaker 1: Army special forces.

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Speaker 5: The White House says the US provided intelligence support for it,

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Speaker 5: and tailing sports widespread.

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Speaker 1: Did you notice that we get a little cooperation going

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Speaker 1: between Mexico and the United States on intel. We got

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Speaker 1: CIA operators down there.

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Speaker 5: Unrest suspected gang members torched cars and businesses. The US

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Speaker 5: State Department urns US nationals to shelter in place. There's

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Speaker 5: been some panic at air Force that tourists has been

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Speaker 5: stranded there because some of the airlines have canceled flights

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Speaker 5: in and out of Portavios and Guadalajara.

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Speaker 1: Get to see a n vallerely all for the.

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Speaker 6: Latest fire, smoke, and chaos across several Mexican states. Cities

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Speaker 6: brought to a standstill as criminal groups retaliate after Mexico's

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Speaker 6: most wanted drug leaders died following a military operation Sunday

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Speaker 6: blocked highways, drivers forced out of her cars at gunpoint,

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Speaker 6: drugs and buses set on fire. Nimesio O Segeia Servants,

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Speaker 6: a former police officer known to most as Elemento, was

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Speaker 6: the leader of the Talisco New Generation Cartel, wounded during

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Speaker 6: a Mexican military operation and later died while being transported

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Speaker 6: to Mexico City. The US played a role in Sunday's operation,

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Speaker 6: according to US defense officials, though it's unclear to what

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Speaker 6: extent that fear spread. Many Mexicans spoke out, pulling for

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Speaker 6: an end to the violence.

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Speaker 1: Themoyers Acordele are aware of his violence, and what they

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Speaker 1: want is peace, to live in harmony, justice not in war.

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Speaker 6: Blockades were reported across various states, and classes were suspended

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Speaker 6: in at least three states as officials try to contain

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Speaker 6: the violence and keep civilians off the streets eloying.

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Speaker 1: I'm tired of seeing this continue every single day.

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Speaker 6: While under Elmintu's command, the cortel expanded rapidly, challenging rivals

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Speaker 6: like the Sinaloa Cartel for control of territory and trafficking routes.

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Speaker 6: According to US and Mexican officials, al Minchu managed to

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Speaker 6: avoid capture for years. His attention and debt is one

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Speaker 6: of the most significant glows to organized crime in recent years,

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Speaker 6: and the first high profile operation under President Claudia Seaman.

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Speaker 6: The full of Elmentchu may mark a major security milestone,

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Speaker 6: but with tourism, foreign investment, and security for the twenty

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Speaker 6: twenty six World Cup at stake, the world is watching

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Speaker 6: how Mexico.

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Speaker 1: Handles what comes next? Leone ain't that is the question?

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Speaker 1: What comes next? By the way, I don't know why

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Speaker 1: see it Elmncho And they're in this little package that

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Speaker 1: CNN ran. They have the like you'd have a reaction

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Speaker 1: in like in the Epstein files. You know you got

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Speaker 1: a big black box or you know, covering people's names

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Speaker 1: or whatever. They have a block a black box covering

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Speaker 1: his eyes. Why one, he's dead? Two? Uh we all

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Speaker 1: kind of knew who he was. And why why are

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Speaker 1: you trying to hide his eyes? So let's start with

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Speaker 1: the basics, so les you understand the scale of just

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Speaker 1: what happened. So yesterday the Mexican army killed Sevantes better

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Speaker 1: know Elmncha or El Munchies. I don't know, maybe al Munchies,

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Speaker 1: depending on I don't think he's all munchies anymore, but

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Speaker 1: maybe one time he had the monchies. I don't know.

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Speaker 1: He's the founder and the supreme commander of the Falisco

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Speaker 1: New Generation Cartel, known by the Spanish initials of c

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Speaker 1: J and Suju Sunjun. I don't know, what do you

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Speaker 1: want to call it? The State Department had a fifteen

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Speaker 1: million dollar bounty on his head, so rather than pay

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Speaker 1: off the bounty, let's just, you know, send some cia

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Speaker 1: OP covert ops down and just say there he is

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Speaker 1: Bill killing stays US fifteen million dollars. Right. The DEA

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Speaker 1: called uh the new Generation car That's what I'm gonna

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Speaker 1: call it, a new generation cartel, one of the most

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Speaker 1: powerful and ruthless criminal organizations in Mexico. Now, Elmncho. El

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Speaker 1: Mincho wasn't just a drug board. He was the most

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Speaker 1: wanted criminal in all of North America. And he's a

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Speaker 1: former cop. Yep, he's a former cop who then used

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Speaker 1: his knowledge of law enforcement against the institutions that trained

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Speaker 1: him and built out what became Mexico's most dominant criminal empire.

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Speaker 1: Fifty nine years old, so the New Generation Cartel started

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Speaker 1: around two thousand, I think, grew with amazing speed because

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Speaker 1: they once, you know, once we got El Chapo, the

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Speaker 1: Sinaaloa cartel was weakened. So while Cineloa was the old

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Speaker 1: money establishment of Mexican organized crime, it was very sophisticated, bureaucratic,

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Speaker 1: preferring corruption over confrontation. The new generation was the disruptor.

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Speaker 1: They were aggressive, they were militarized, They were technologically innovative

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Speaker 1: in ways that should genuinely frighten us. The Halisco Cartel

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Speaker 1: was a pioneer in launching explosives from drones and installing

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Speaker 1: land mines. Now, these aren't street gangs with guns. This

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Speaker 1: is a paramilitary organization with armored vehicles, rocket launchers, drone

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Speaker 1: warfare capabilities, operating on our border. Yes, operating right there. Now.

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Speaker 1: The new generation's primary business was trafficking fentanyl to this country.

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Speaker 1: So it made Elementa arguably I think a single individual

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Speaker 1: most responsible for the fennel over those crisis that has

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Speaker 1: killed what hundreds of thousands of Americans. And I think

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Speaker 1: that context is what matters most when we get to

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Speaker 1: the political dimensions of this story. But I'm also fascinating

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Speaker 1: how it went down. And I've told you before that

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Speaker 1: we always had these contingency plans within uh FEMA, Homeland

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Speaker 1: Security and DoD about you know what happens if we

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Speaker 1: have an operation like this and it spills across the border.

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Speaker 1: I mean some of the videos that CNN was showing

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Speaker 1: was actually in Tijuana, So you know, do you wanna

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Speaker 1: it's like right there? And what if Mexico turns into

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Speaker 1: a failed state? And I don't think Mexico is, it

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Speaker 1: could be, but depending on how this plays out, which

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Speaker 1: is why I think it's important to understand how it

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Speaker 1: went down. So yesterday the Mexican Army conducted which which

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Speaker 1: I just want you to think about how corrupt everything

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Speaker 1: is in Mexico. I'm just this fascinated. The Mexican Army

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Speaker 1: itself was able to conduct the security operation into Paulpa

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Speaker 1: in Jalisco, as a small town about two hours southwest

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Speaker 1: of Guadaljara, after Intel reports confirmed that he was present

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Speaker 1: in what had long been regarded as a new Generation stronghold.

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Speaker 1: The objective was not to capture him. The objective was

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Speaker 1: to kill him. And I think that distinction is something

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Speaker 1: that you need to keep in mind because it matters

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Speaker 1: both legally and it matters diplomatically. I'll explain in just

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Speaker 1: a minute. So the security forces encountered armed resistance from

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Speaker 1: the New Generation members as they moved in. Obviously, there

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Speaker 1: was an exchange of gunfire. Savante's al Muncho was critically

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Speaker 1: wounded in the confrontation. He got evacuated by helicopter for

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Speaker 1: medical treatment. Oh he later died from his injuries en

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Speaker 1: route to a medical facility. Now I don't know, but

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Speaker 1: if the operation was to assassinate him, and he's only wounded,

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Speaker 1: but wounded enough that some of the Mexican Army and

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Speaker 1: maybe some of us who knows, are able to put

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Speaker 1: him on a Metavac helicopter. So the Metavact takes off

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Speaker 1: and slowly slowly. Oh look, oh h, I don't know,

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Speaker 1: have systems not working. I'm quite sure where we are.

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Speaker 1: How's it going back there? Boys? Everything working out all right?

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Speaker 1: Oh yeah, yeah, we're doing quite well. What's our eta

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Speaker 1: to the hospital? E maybe Thursday, Friday. We don't know.

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Speaker 1: We're not quite sure. We have to make all these

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Speaker 1: evasive movement movements. So they didn't put a bullet in

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Speaker 1: him execution style. He actually went down fighting, but he

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Speaker 1: didn't survive the metavac. I'm sorry, I shouldn't laugh, but

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Speaker 1: I can just imagine that. You know, well, we took

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Speaker 1: our time. You know, there's there's a lot of you know,

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Speaker 1: air traffic control was just maybe they were on strike.

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Speaker 1: I don't know, maybe the government shut down, maybe there

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Speaker 1: was any a DC. So there were a bunch of

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Speaker 1: I think seven of the new generation people were killed

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Speaker 1: in total, two got arrested, authority sived armored vehicles, heavy weapons,

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Speaker 1: and tactive equipment. Three Mexican soldiers were wounded. That's what

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Speaker 1: caused the Cartail to respond. They responded immediately, coordinated and nashally,

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Speaker 1: so within hours, cars set on fire by Cartael members

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Speaker 1: blocked roads in nearly a dozen Mexican states, not just

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Speaker 1: in Guadalhara, not in just Falisco, but in several states.

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Speaker 1: And you've seen, I know you've seen the pictures of

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Speaker 1: all the smoke billowing. You know, tourists are sitting there

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Speaker 1: having their mid thighs or drinking their margaritas or whatever,

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Speaker 1: and they're, oh, look good, good, all the smoke billowing out.

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Speaker 1: Probably some unless flights have been canceled, probably get some

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Speaker 1: pretty cheap flights down. There are probably some pretty cheap

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Speaker 1: hotel rooms right now. So in Jalisco's capital, blau Blahara,

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Speaker 1: which is Mexico's second largest city, it turned into a

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Speaker 1: ghost town because the civilians, yep, they just went inside.

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Speaker 1: Now think about that for a moment, Mexico's second largest city,

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Speaker 1: home to millions of people. It'd be like Los Angeles

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Speaker 1: effectively shut down because a criminal organization decided to flex

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Speaker 1: its muscle in response to oh, something like I don't

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Speaker 1: know ice operating in Minneapolis, as one resident told Al Jazeera.

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Speaker 1: Of course al Jazeera, because they're there. That's when you

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Speaker 1: realize the immense powers these organizations have, because they can

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Speaker 1: collapse our second largest city in a matter of minutes.

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Speaker 1: So then authority started announcing late last night, as I'm

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Speaker 1: trying to try to watch this story, that they had

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Speaker 1: cleared most of the more than two hundred and fifty

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Speaker 1: cartel roadblocks across more than twenty states. Two hundred and

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Speaker 1: fifty roadblocks. We lost twenty of Mexico's thirty two states.

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Speaker 1: You don't think that they aren't like a spiderweb in

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Speaker 1: that country. They are everywhere. And I got to tell

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Speaker 1: you to instantaneously have two hundred and fifty roadblocks. That

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Speaker 1: wasn't spontaneous. That was exactly the kind of thing that

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Speaker 1: even twenty years ago when we were doing this planning

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Speaker 1: that we knew the cartels that at the time New

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Speaker 1: Generation didn't even exist. It was Cinelo and all the

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Speaker 1: other cartels. We knew that they had that kind of

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Speaker 1: embedded presence throughout all of these states, including the capital,

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Speaker 1: Mexico City itself. So the airline started canceling flights Southwest Alaska,

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Speaker 1: United Delta Air, Canada West Jet order they all an

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Speaker 1: American tourist got stranded in or Levant. The US Embassy

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Speaker 1: ordered personnel in eight cities. The shelter in place to

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Speaker 1: work remotely schools been canceled today across multiple states. And

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Speaker 1: the social media images were kind of amazing. Now the

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Speaker 1: way I read described to social media images as jarring,

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Speaker 1: I found them, well, kind of fascinating. Did you see

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Speaker 1: the Costco? Now there's a Costco. What's the closest, Well,

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Speaker 1: there's a Costco over here in Aurora, right dragging me

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Speaker 1: in the rue over there in Aurora. And there's one

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Speaker 1: over not too far from here, I think, just north

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Speaker 1: of US. And there's one over in Santa Fe River

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Speaker 1: Walker River something. Imagine those on fire. All the hot

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Speaker 1: dogs are burning, all the roasted, the rotisserie chicken, everything,

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Speaker 1: all the toilet paper, everything's just on fire because well,

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Speaker 1: new generation wanted to burn them down. This is what

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Speaker 1: a narco state looks like when it's disturbed. Twenty two

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Speaker 1: out of thirty states on lockdown. The city that the

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Speaker 1: nation's second largest city. Know, I know, it's millions. I'm

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Speaker 1: not quite sure how many millions of people in Guadalara

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Speaker 1: shut down, literally shut down. And this is where I

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Speaker 1: think it gets genuinely interesting from both a geopolitical and

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Speaker 1: a legal standpoint. Since its establishment in January, Now, we've

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Speaker 1: always had so this is just a this is an

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Speaker 1: iteration of something that's always existed. But the Joint Interagency

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Speaker 1: Task Force Powter Cartel has been working regularly with the

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Speaker 1: Mexican military through Northern Command NORTHCOMB to combat cartel operations

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Speaker 1: along the US Mexican border. Now, this is a relatively

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Speaker 1: new formal structure stood up under Trump's second term, and

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Speaker 1: it is a what I would just call an evolution

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Speaker 1: in bilateral security cooperation that largely been stalled for performative

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Speaker 1: under previous administrations. I mean, it was pretty active under

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Speaker 1: the Bush administration, because I can just tell you I

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Speaker 1: was in those meetings. But then I guess it just

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Speaker 1: started to languish after, you know, Obama and maybe Trump

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Speaker 1: one didn't have time because it is adding RUSSA, Russia, Russia.

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Speaker 1: And then of course Joe Biden didn't he didn't care.

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Speaker 1: He just let the borders open, and the White House

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Speaker 1: confirmed that we provided intelligence for the operation, and US

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Speaker 1: defense officials told CBS that while the military played a

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Speaker 1: role through the joint operation, that this was a Mexican

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Speaker 1: military military operation, so this success belongs to them. Let

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Speaker 1: me just tell you that is very careful, deliberate diplomatic language.

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Speaker 1: Washington isn't giving Mexico full credit while making sure that

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Speaker 1: everybody understands, yeah, we're giving them credit. But yeah, I

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Speaker 1: guess what we played a part two.

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Speaker 7: Good morning, Michael and Dragon just wanted to go back

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Speaker 7: to something said on Friday.

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Speaker 1: Who do Who?

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Speaker 7: Just wanted to let you know there are some other

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Speaker 7: meanings for that saying, one of which being the impending

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Speaker 7: arrival of the police department. Another one potentially that you

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Speaker 7: want to buy a certain illicit substance, So just be

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Speaker 7: careful which neighborhood you're in when you shout who do

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Speaker 7: you who?

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Speaker 3: I would also like to add the talkbacker that said

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Speaker 3: that they actually did it and the sun started to

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Speaker 3: come out, and yes, yeah, seventy something tomorrow.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, so it works, thank you, it did work, thank

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Speaker 1: you very much. Now. But he didn tell us what

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Speaker 1: substance it was. So that means I need to go

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Speaker 1: down to five points or east Colfax, and well I

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Speaker 1: wouldn't have to stop because you can't drive along there anyway,

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Speaker 1: so you'll be stopped anyway, and just roll the winds

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Speaker 1: down of course, like you roll the winds down the beam. Right,

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Speaker 1: you know, somebody's gonna steal all my rims and everything else.

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Speaker 1: I gotta be careful stopping down there and just yell

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Speaker 1: who do you who? And just see what you know?

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Speaker 1: You come up and offer to sell me, But how

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Speaker 1: much cash I need? Like a twenty dollars bill or Benjamin,

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Speaker 1: what do I need? Well you have admitted that the

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Speaker 1: end and uh wait a minute, substance that could mean

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Speaker 1: more than just you know, like drugs, because I'm just

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Speaker 1: saying on Colfax you scream who do who? She might

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Speaker 1: just show up. You would know that you would know

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Speaker 1: that am my ex wife, and I can ask her,

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Speaker 1: h can I get I'm here to collect child support.

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Speaker 3: It's only nearly one hundred dolls and it's fine.

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Speaker 1: The day you call in sick for a week, but

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Speaker 1: I know you're really not sick. You just call me

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Speaker 1: in advance and say I'm gonna be sick for a

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Speaker 1: week is the day that I know you got your

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Speaker 1: hundred thousand dollars in back child support. It's never coming out.

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Speaker 1: I know. That's why. That's why you're here every day.

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Speaker 3: Well, I mean, if they legalize the prostitution here in Colorada,

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Speaker 3: which could happen, you know, you may actually get paid

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Speaker 3: over the table now exactly.

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Speaker 1: And you could start garnishing wages exactly.

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Speaker 3: Missus Redbard asked me about it every the weekend. She's like,

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Speaker 3: what do you think of this? Is like, you know,

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Speaker 3: I'm all for it because then we might start getting

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Speaker 3: some child support. And she's like uh oh ooh ooh.

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Speaker 1: So yes, we are in favor of legal prostitution in

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Speaker 1: order for a dragon red Beard to get his past

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Speaker 1: due child support. Yeah, there there you go. See, there's

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Speaker 1: all we can rationalize anything. Always look on the side

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Speaker 1: that's right. So who do you who do who do?

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Speaker 1: Who do? Who do? Who do? Who do you? The

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Speaker 1: Ambassador to Mexico, Ron Johnson, not the Senator. The other

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Speaker 1: guy said that quote. Under the leadership of President Trump

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Speaker 1: and President Shinbaum, that's the president of Mexico. Bilinal cooperation

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Speaker 1: has reached president of levels. Now, of course, an ambassador

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Speaker 1: loves to say things like that because well puts him

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Speaker 1: in good with the president and makes him sound really good,

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Speaker 1: and he gets quoted by everybody in the national media.

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Speaker 1: But after years, in this specific context, I would say,

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Speaker 1: after years of Manuel Lopez Obrador's imistration actively undermining security

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Speaker 1: cooperation and frankly, in my opinion, actually protecting the cartel interest,

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Speaker 1: unprecedented is not just diplomatic fluff. I think this signals

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Speaker 1: a genuine policy shift. And once again all you have

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Speaker 1: to do is look the guy in the White House

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Speaker 1: and go shazam wow. So what drove the shift? Simple,

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Speaker 1: I think it's Trump's pressure campaign. Trump demanded Mexico do

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Speaker 1: more to fight fentnel smuggling. He threatened to impose more

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Speaker 1: tariffs or to take unilateral military action if the country

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Speaker 1: failed to show any results, and President Shinbaum, for all

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Speaker 1: of her differences because she's a far lefty nutjob, she's

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Speaker 1: also a pragmatist who understood that, well, the alternative cooperating

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Speaker 1: with that nutjob in the White House was potentially American

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Speaker 1: military operations on Mexican soil, something that guess what, that's

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Speaker 1: something that no Mexican president could survive politically. And I

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Speaker 1: was thinking about that because, you know what, let's go

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Speaker 1: back to, you know, the Insurrection Act and how you know,

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Speaker 1: we were sitting on Air Force one during Katrina with

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Speaker 1: you know, Governor Blanco doing all the everything that we

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Speaker 1: need to do to invoke the Insurrection Act, and we

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Speaker 1: had all the paperwork ready, The Attorney General had signed off,

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Speaker 1: national Security advisor had signed off. We were all ready

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Speaker 1: to go. And then Bush says to Governor Blanco, uh,

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Speaker 1: so let's do this, and she said, well, I need

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Speaker 1: twenty four hours to think about it. And I knew

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Speaker 1: that was the death now, because just as Shinbaum could

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Speaker 1: not survive American military operation on Mexican soil, neither could

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Speaker 1: Governor Blanco survive politically American armed forces operating in Louisiana.

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Speaker 1: So it's the same theory urgescing in practice some twenty

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Speaker 1: years later. Now I've got a steal man a counter argument,

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Speaker 1: because there is some legitimate debate here. Chinberg herself has

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Speaker 1: previously criticized the so called King Penn strategy of taking

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Speaker 1: out cartel leaders because she's been warning that decapitating criminal

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Speaker 1: organizations can fracture them into rival factions and then that

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Speaker 1: in turn can ignite new cycles of violence. I don't

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Speaker 1: think she's not wrong that this has happened before. So

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Speaker 1: if you recall when Al Chapo was arrested by the

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Speaker 1: first Trump administration, it eventually sparked a civil war between

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Speaker 1: different Sinilo of factions. So the drug trade doesn't disappear

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Speaker 1: when the mob boss dies. Supply and demand still exists

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Speaker 1: and ambitious sumport subordinates. Of course they're ready to fill

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Speaker 1: the vacuum with blood. They'll do anything to take over,

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Speaker 1: and I think the evidence from yesterday supports her concerns.

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Speaker 1: The New Generations coordinated nationwide retaliation demonstrated that the organization

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Speaker 1: still has substantial command and control capable even without El

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Speaker 1: Munchies at the top. So who's going to take over? Well,

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Speaker 1: the DIAMA Security Intelligence Organization outlined two scenarios. Either elementso's

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Speaker 1: steps and Wong Carlos Gonzala Valencia, who runs the cartel's

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Speaker 1: paramilitary wing. Yeah sounds good, right, He will succeed him

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Speaker 1: and keep the new generation cartel unified, or the cartel

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Speaker 1: will fracture into four or five or six regional commanders,

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Speaker 1: and then each of those commanders will have the money,

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Speaker 1: the power, and the men to create their own criminal fiefdoms.

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Speaker 1: So out of one, you'll get a bunch. That second

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Speaker 1: scenario is probably the worst for us, and quite frankly

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Speaker 1: for Shinbaum too, because fragmentation historically produces more violence, not

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Speaker 1: less violence, because every power of vacuum becomes a shooting war.

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Speaker 1: But I think there's a counter argument to it, and

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Speaker 1: this is where I think the balance tilts in favor

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Speaker 1: of this operation. You don't leave the world's biggest fentanyl

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Speaker 1: trafficker in the field indefinitely because you're, oh my gosh,

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Speaker 1: I we're worried that, you know, it might swim her

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Speaker 1: into different organizational success. So you got new and you know,

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Speaker 1: very problems. Al Menschell was personally responsible for deaths of

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Speaker 1: tens of thousands of Americans through the Fennel that he

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Speaker 1: pushed across the border. So I think the risk calculus

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Speaker 1: demanded that somebody act, and the President of Mexico for

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Speaker 1: once finally did so. What does this mean politically for Mexico?

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Speaker 1: For Scheinbaum, this is simultaneously her probably her greatest triumph

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Speaker 1: and probably her biggest headache at the same time, because

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Speaker 1: she inherited the security portfolio that Lopez Obrador left behind,

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Speaker 1: and his entire approach to the cartel was the now

428
00:25:59,119 --> 00:26:04,000
Speaker 1: infamous hugs not Bullets policy That was a policy of

429
00:26:04,520 --> 00:26:09,760
Speaker 1: strategic non confrontation that I think critics correctly characterized as

430
00:26:09,920 --> 00:26:14,800
Speaker 1: the state of Mexico accommodating organized crime. And then Shinebaum

431
00:26:14,920 --> 00:26:18,600
Speaker 1: runs for office promising something different, but she was constrained

432
00:26:18,600 --> 00:26:22,360
Speaker 1: by not just her own party's political culture, but by

433
00:26:22,400 --> 00:26:26,880
Speaker 1: sovereignty concerns about American pressure and the genuine risk of escalation.

434
00:26:27,480 --> 00:26:31,120
Speaker 1: And then Trump takes office and he designated the New

435
00:26:31,160 --> 00:26:37,320
Speaker 1: Generation Cartel as a foreign terrorist organization last month I'm

436
00:26:37,359 --> 00:26:44,000
Speaker 1: sorry last year, threatened tariffs, military intervention, and Shinbaum now

437
00:26:44,040 --> 00:26:48,960
Speaker 1: has a binary choice show results or lose the bilateral relationship,

438
00:26:49,600 --> 00:26:54,879
Speaker 1: and potentially that destroys I shouldn't say destroy it certainly

439
00:26:54,960 --> 00:26:58,800
Speaker 1: harms her economy. So Mexico ended up handing over twenty

440
00:26:58,840 --> 00:27:01,680
Speaker 1: six Cartel figures United States in August of last year,

441
00:27:02,320 --> 00:27:06,360
Speaker 1: a remarkable transfer that would have been unthinkable under Obrador.

442
00:27:07,080 --> 00:27:10,359
Speaker 1: And in killing ELMNSHO, that becomes the crown jewel of

443
00:27:10,480 --> 00:27:15,400
Speaker 1: that particular effort. But now going forward, if new generation

444
00:27:15,560 --> 00:27:18,639
Speaker 1: fractures and violence, you know, spikes over the next six months,

445
00:27:19,520 --> 00:27:22,160
Speaker 1: the president of Mexico is going to own that outcome too.

446
00:27:23,760 --> 00:27:29,560
Speaker 1: It's I find it fascinating how much tolerance the Mexican

447
00:27:29,600 --> 00:27:35,840
Speaker 1: public has shown for her. Her approval ratings are amazingly high.

448
00:27:36,640 --> 00:27:39,600
Speaker 1: But that good will is not unlimited. And a prolonged

449
00:27:39,600 --> 00:27:42,600
Speaker 1: security crisis, you know, because we got the twenty twenty

450
00:27:42,680 --> 00:27:47,520
Speaker 1: six FIFA World Up. The Cup's coming to Guadalajara. Yes,

451
00:27:47,720 --> 00:27:51,600
Speaker 1: that same city that's shut down. That could erode very quickly.

452
00:27:52,359 --> 00:27:55,160
Speaker 1: And I don't think that the World Cup angle can

453
00:27:55,200 --> 00:28:00,919
Speaker 1: be understated because Guadalajara as a World Cup hosts and

454
00:28:00,960 --> 00:28:04,840
Speaker 1: the violence that shut it down yesterday, that creates enormous

455
00:28:04,920 --> 00:28:10,359
Speaker 1: international pressure and of course it damages its own reputation. Hey, honey,

456
00:28:10,600 --> 00:28:12,280
Speaker 1: you still want to go to the World Cup. Where

457
00:28:12,320 --> 00:28:15,560
Speaker 1: is it? Blad ba Laha, Oh, what's it like there, ma'am.

458
00:28:15,880 --> 00:28:17,919
Speaker 1: It's kind of burning right now, and it's kind of

459
00:28:18,040 --> 00:28:22,040
Speaker 1: shut down. Why does everybody keep saying who who? Who

460
00:28:22,080 --> 00:28:26,560
Speaker 1: do you? Who do you? It's who do you get it? Right?

461
00:28:28,119 --> 00:28:35,600
Speaker 1: What's the song by? Not fast Domino? Heidi ho Heidi

462
00:28:35,640 --> 00:28:39,520
Speaker 1: ho Heidi ho Heidi hoe. Maybe it's from Blues Brothers.

463
00:28:40,040 --> 00:28:43,160
Speaker 1: Heidi ho Heidi ho heidi ho. That's what we need

464
00:28:43,200 --> 00:28:45,920
Speaker 1: to be seeing this Idi ho heidi ho ho ho ho.

465
00:28:46,960 --> 00:28:48,400
Speaker 1: So do you think this is going to spill over

466
00:28:48,440 --> 00:28:51,280
Speaker 1: into the into the United States? I think it already

467
00:28:51,280 --> 00:28:54,240
Speaker 1: has and it will continue to do so, but maybe

468
00:28:54,280 --> 00:28:56,680
Speaker 1: not in the way that most people imagine or fear

469
00:28:57,960 --> 00:29:01,480
Speaker 1: the dramatic movie version, if you will. Cartael gunman of

470
00:29:01,520 --> 00:29:04,720
Speaker 1: staging roadblocks and Phoenix or hit squads operating openly in

471
00:29:04,800 --> 00:29:08,160
Speaker 1: Dallas or Denver probably not going to happen. But American

472
00:29:08,240 --> 00:29:12,920
Speaker 1: law enforcement capacity gun laws that paradoxically actually do work

473
00:29:12,960 --> 00:29:16,840
Speaker 1: against cartel operations, when combined with federal surveillance and the

474
00:29:16,880 --> 00:29:22,680
Speaker 1: basic economic logic of maintaining a safe marketplace for product distribution,

475
00:29:23,160 --> 00:29:27,000
Speaker 1: that kind of discourages that level of overt violence on us.

476
00:29:27,040 --> 00:29:29,040
Speaker 1: And you got to remember, as we'll do you know

477
00:29:29,160 --> 00:29:31,880
Speaker 1: again this Friday. Well, a lot of Americans own a

478
00:29:31,880 --> 00:29:34,160
Speaker 1: lot of guns, and we will tolerate a lot of

479
00:29:34,160 --> 00:29:37,680
Speaker 1: this stuff. But what I think we will see is

480
00:29:38,560 --> 00:29:42,640
Speaker 1: a lot more subtle and probably actually more dangerous. And

481
00:29:42,680 --> 00:29:46,400
Speaker 1: that's going to be power struggles within US based New

482
00:29:46,480 --> 00:29:50,560
Speaker 1: Generation distribution networks because all the mid level operators in

483
00:29:50,640 --> 00:29:54,080
Speaker 1: these drug cartels, they're going to scramble tone to align

484
00:29:54,200 --> 00:29:59,360
Speaker 1: themselves with whoever they think is emerging on top end Mexico.

485
00:30:00,320 --> 00:30:03,800
Speaker 1: So the drug supply disruptions in the short term as

486
00:30:03,840 --> 00:30:07,400
Speaker 1: all these networks start to re align, can actually spike

487
00:30:07,520 --> 00:30:13,040
Speaker 1: overdose desks because desperate users turn to more dangerous substitutes

488
00:30:13,160 --> 00:30:18,840
Speaker 1: or unknowingly accept you know, contaminated product or just fake

489
00:30:18,960 --> 00:30:22,840
Speaker 1: you know product, Then you have and I think this

490
00:30:22,960 --> 00:30:26,760
Speaker 1: potential is real targeted violence against informants, arrivals that are

491
00:30:26,760 --> 00:30:30,760
Speaker 1: connected to the operation, that are in this country. So

492
00:30:32,920 --> 00:30:36,600
Speaker 1: what just happened is significant, but I don't think it's sufficient.

493
00:30:37,320 --> 00:30:41,160
Speaker 1: Killing Elmensho is the equivalent of winning the battle, but

494
00:30:41,200 --> 00:30:45,680
Speaker 1: it's not winning the war. New Generation existed before Elmnshaw

495
00:30:45,760 --> 00:30:49,920
Speaker 1: could be captured because the structural conditions that create and

496
00:30:50,000 --> 00:30:55,000
Speaker 1: sustained cartels. You ever thought about that. It's poverty, corruption,

497
00:30:55,680 --> 00:31:00,200
Speaker 1: weak institutions, which is the very definition of Mexico, and

498
00:31:00,280 --> 00:31:04,200
Speaker 1: most importantly, demand on this side of the border for

499
00:31:04,240 --> 00:31:09,440
Speaker 1: those drugs. That's not changed at all. But the partnership

500
00:31:09,520 --> 00:31:13,600
Speaker 1: between Mexico and the United States has suddenly turned real

501
00:31:13,720 --> 00:31:16,240
Speaker 1: and it's actually worked. It's fragile, but I think it's working,

502
00:31:16,840 --> 00:31:21,440
Speaker 1: and it exists because Trump again has applied real pressure,

503
00:31:22,240 --> 00:31:24,640
Speaker 1: and so shine bamb has to make al and did

504
00:31:24,680 --> 00:31:29,080
Speaker 1: make a calculated decision to cooperate. Now that alignment could

505
00:31:29,120 --> 00:31:33,080
Speaker 1: eventually break down if a future Mexican administration reverts to

506
00:31:33,480 --> 00:31:37,840
Speaker 1: you know, Obrador's style accommodation for the cartels, or if

507
00:31:37,840 --> 00:31:41,600
Speaker 1: Trump overplays the military intervention card and triggers the nationalist

508
00:31:41,640 --> 00:31:46,000
Speaker 1: backlash in Mexico, or if the violence from Elemento's death

509
00:31:46,080 --> 00:31:49,280
Speaker 1: becomes so severe that Shinebaum's gonna dial things back a

510
00:31:49,320 --> 00:31:55,200
Speaker 1: little bit for domestic political reasons, that cooperation collapses. But

511
00:31:55,320 --> 00:32:00,960
Speaker 1: for us, the fentanyl remains the existential threat. Now Menchell's dead,

512
00:32:01,360 --> 00:32:04,040
Speaker 1: the pills are still flowing, that people are still dying.

513
00:32:04,640 --> 00:32:07,000
Speaker 1: That's the story that doesn't go away with one successful

514
00:32:07,000 --> 00:32:10,320
Speaker 1: military operation, no matter how significant. It is, so what

515
00:32:10,360 --> 00:32:14,360
Speaker 1: happened in Mexico yesterday indeed, was I think significant history

516
00:32:14,760 --> 00:32:18,640
Speaker 1: and a significant kind of marking point, if you will,

517
00:32:19,240 --> 00:32:22,720
Speaker 1: between our country and Mexico. What happens next, though, is

518
00:32:22,760 --> 00:32:25,440
Speaker 1: going to be a real test of whether it's history

519
00:32:26,000 --> 00:32:30,360
Speaker 1: that matters. And it's going to be very interesting to

520
00:32:30,360 --> 00:32:33,640
Speaker 1: watch what happens with Mexican tourism. So far, I've not

521
00:32:33,680 --> 00:32:38,560
Speaker 1: heard of any American deaths, but imagine, just imagine being

522
00:32:39,640 --> 00:32:42,280
Speaker 1: at one of the resorts and suddenly you know your

523
00:32:42,320 --> 00:32:45,000
Speaker 1: flights are canceled. You were coming home yesterday or today.

524
00:32:45,360 --> 00:32:48,200
Speaker 1: Now maybe you don't who knows when flights will resume,

525
00:32:48,920 --> 00:32:51,959
Speaker 1: and you've been told by the State department to shelter

526
00:32:52,120 --> 00:32:55,240
Speaker 1: in place. Now I would take that to mean, although

527
00:32:55,240 --> 00:32:59,600
Speaker 1: I'd still be careful to stay on the resort. Some

528
00:32:59,640 --> 00:33:02,720
Speaker 1: people take it to mean stay in your room, don't

529
00:33:02,800 --> 00:33:05,600
Speaker 1: even go out to the pool. And then all of

530
00:33:05,640 --> 00:33:09,160
Speaker 1: the people that worked at the resorts, what do they do?

531
00:33:09,160 --> 00:33:10,960
Speaker 1: Do they come to work or not come to work.

532
00:33:11,560 --> 00:33:13,840
Speaker 1: There's all these things that happen that people don't think

533
00:33:13,840 --> 00:33:20,200
Speaker 1: about that what happened yesterday is a major move for Trump.

534
00:33:20,880 --> 00:33:22,720
Speaker 1: I say, congratulations,