1
00:00:00,680 --> 00:00:04,120
Speaker 1: Hey, Michael mcguiel, Hey, I just wanted to pay my

2
00:00:04,200 --> 00:00:06,559
Speaker 1: respects to you for being respectful about the death of

3
00:00:06,640 --> 00:00:09,160
Speaker 1: Dick Cheney and that Liz loss of dad, and we

4
00:00:09,200 --> 00:00:12,360
Speaker 1: shouldn't be political or partisan, and I just wanted to

5
00:00:12,360 --> 00:00:14,319
Speaker 1: tell you I've known Dick for a long time and

6
00:00:14,480 --> 00:00:19,360
Speaker 1: I did Hunter Safety with him, and my limp is healed.

7
00:00:19,520 --> 00:00:24,360
Speaker 2: Immensely, just waiting for that shoe to drop.

8
00:00:26,520 --> 00:00:29,800
Speaker 3: You know, Okay, you got me, You absolutely got me.

9
00:00:30,440 --> 00:00:35,360
Speaker 3: That was That was par excellent, that that was wonderful.

10
00:00:36,080 --> 00:00:39,519
Speaker 3: I'm sitting here thinking, you know, first he's kind of

11
00:00:39,520 --> 00:00:41,120
Speaker 3: inflating my ego a little bit.

12
00:00:41,280 --> 00:00:41,879
Speaker 2: Teed it up.

13
00:00:42,040 --> 00:00:43,199
Speaker 4: That's right, tease it up.

14
00:00:43,240 --> 00:00:46,080
Speaker 3: You know you were You're respectful, and I appreciate you

15
00:00:46,200 --> 00:00:50,120
Speaker 3: being respectful. And then the minute he said Hunter's Safety, course,

16
00:00:50,159 --> 00:00:53,640
Speaker 3: I thought, what and on my limps.

17
00:00:53,280 --> 00:00:56,240
Speaker 5: Getting not quite a home run, but definitely a double

18
00:00:56,240 --> 00:00:57,520
Speaker 5: aer a triple it was.

19
00:00:58,120 --> 00:01:01,080
Speaker 3: It was a base hit, no doubt, no doubt that

20
00:01:01,160 --> 00:01:04,080
Speaker 3: was a base hit. But for this early in the morning,

21
00:01:04,200 --> 00:01:06,560
Speaker 3: it's it feels like a hole. It feels like a

22
00:01:06,600 --> 00:01:09,319
Speaker 3: Grand Slam because it's just like vam that early in

23
00:01:09,319 --> 00:01:13,040
Speaker 3: the morning, and you wonder why we want you to

24
00:01:13,080 --> 00:01:15,800
Speaker 3: follow us over to Koa so we can wake up

25
00:01:15,880 --> 00:01:19,080
Speaker 3: that state. OHD fifty thousand walk blow torch just you know,

26
00:01:19,200 --> 00:01:22,240
Speaker 3: it's it's got Instead of like a fifty thousand walk

27
00:01:22,280 --> 00:01:25,600
Speaker 3: blow torch, it's now more like one of those lighters

28
00:01:25,640 --> 00:01:27,280
Speaker 3: you buy at the grocery store. You know you kind

29
00:01:27,280 --> 00:01:29,600
Speaker 3: of light your fireplace with the long lighter.

30
00:01:29,760 --> 00:01:31,800
Speaker 5: Yeah, a big not a big light like one of

31
00:01:31,800 --> 00:01:33,640
Speaker 5: the stick like yeah, the stick bilighters.

32
00:01:33,720 --> 00:01:35,080
Speaker 3: You know, it's just kind of got a little flame

33
00:01:35,120 --> 00:01:36,960
Speaker 3: out the end. Well, they're wanting us to turn it

34
00:01:37,000 --> 00:01:40,520
Speaker 3: back into a blow torch, so you know, at least

35
00:01:40,800 --> 00:01:43,920
Speaker 3: at least that's the message that was delivered yesterday. Now

36
00:01:44,280 --> 00:01:47,480
Speaker 3: when we do, we'll see just exactly like, oh.

37
00:01:47,360 --> 00:01:49,120
Speaker 4: My god, you cut the place on fire. What are

38
00:01:49,120 --> 00:01:49,520
Speaker 4: you doing.

39
00:01:50,360 --> 00:01:55,560
Speaker 5: We've been given permission to do what we want.

40
00:01:55,800 --> 00:01:59,680
Speaker 3: Which really worries me. Yeah, because you and I are

41
00:01:59,720 --> 00:02:04,560
Speaker 3: not a we're a volatile combination. Yeah, we're like I

42
00:02:04,600 --> 00:02:06,520
Speaker 3: was gonna tall you like Lucy and Desi. But nobody

43
00:02:06,520 --> 00:02:07,440
Speaker 3: will get that reference.

44
00:02:08,440 --> 00:02:12,079
Speaker 2: I got some old people in the audience, yeah yeah.

45
00:02:11,919 --> 00:02:15,600
Speaker 3: But they can't they heard they heard turn hearing it

46
00:02:16,080 --> 00:02:18,040
Speaker 3: and who Ludi and who what what what.

47
00:02:18,600 --> 00:02:20,400
Speaker 2: The retired grandpa?

48
00:02:20,800 --> 00:02:24,280
Speaker 4: Speak up, old man Bomer, Speak up, old boomer.

49
00:02:28,639 --> 00:02:31,679
Speaker 3: I've been really thinking about everything about affordability since I

50
00:02:31,760 --> 00:02:37,680
Speaker 3: talked about affordability yesterday. So let's let's walk through affordability.

51
00:02:39,440 --> 00:02:41,560
Speaker 3: What's a riveting subject, isn't it.

52
00:02:42,080 --> 00:02:43,960
Speaker 2: Well, I've already tuned out.

53
00:02:45,639 --> 00:02:48,040
Speaker 4: Wait a minute, you've actually tuned out.

54
00:02:48,760 --> 00:02:50,119
Speaker 2: Well, I had to tune in, because.

55
00:02:49,960 --> 00:02:52,360
Speaker 4: That's what I mean. You were tuned in for a moment.

56
00:02:52,400 --> 00:02:54,400
Speaker 5: I had to play the rules of engagement and I

57
00:02:54,400 --> 00:02:56,120
Speaker 5: had to play the talk back, and then you.

58
00:02:56,040 --> 00:02:58,000
Speaker 3: Thought the talk back was great, so you're you're kind

59
00:02:58,000 --> 00:03:00,560
Speaker 3: of listening, and then I said the word of afordability

60
00:03:00,560 --> 00:03:03,000
Speaker 3: and you went right back to porne. Okay, all right,

61
00:03:03,040 --> 00:03:07,880
Speaker 3: Well that's fine then, pretty way, I would say the

62
00:03:07,919 --> 00:03:14,160
Speaker 3: situation is normal afu. You know, so a snaffoo. You've

63
00:03:14,160 --> 00:03:18,760
Speaker 3: heard of the Consumer price index basket of goods. That

64
00:03:18,919 --> 00:03:21,800
Speaker 3: basket of goods, such.

65
00:03:21,600 --> 00:03:23,640
Speaker 4: A stupid concept. Okay, fine.

66
00:03:24,240 --> 00:03:33,440
Speaker 3: It covers shelter, food, energy, including gasoline, transportation costs, medical care, apparel, recreation, education, communication.

67
00:03:33,720 --> 00:03:37,440
Speaker 3: I've never unerstood why they always put education slash communication together.

68
00:03:37,840 --> 00:03:38,800
Speaker 4: I've never understood that.

69
00:03:38,960 --> 00:03:43,520
Speaker 3: But anyway, it's education, slash, communication, and other goods and services,

70
00:03:44,280 --> 00:03:49,040
Speaker 3: and then its weights or relative importance are updated annually

71
00:03:49,920 --> 00:03:54,720
Speaker 3: from recent consumer spending, with shelter being the largest single

72
00:03:54,760 --> 00:03:59,880
Speaker 3: component and energy a smaller component. But even though it's

73
00:04:00,440 --> 00:04:06,280
Speaker 3: it's more volatile, meaning that the price fluctuations on fuel

74
00:04:06,480 --> 00:04:09,800
Speaker 3: energy tend to go up and down, so it's more volatile,

75
00:04:10,280 --> 00:04:14,680
Speaker 3: more volatile from twenty seventeen, because I want to go

76
00:04:14,760 --> 00:04:18,240
Speaker 3: back to Trump Biden Trump, that's the comparison we're going

77
00:04:18,279 --> 00:04:21,520
Speaker 3: to make. Okay, if we're following along, you know, sing

78
00:04:21,560 --> 00:04:26,480
Speaker 3: along with Mitch here, follow along from early twenty seventeen

79
00:04:27,240 --> 00:04:31,520
Speaker 3: to January of twenty one, when Biden took place, overall

80
00:04:31,600 --> 00:04:37,480
Speaker 3: prices rose very modestly, and then after January twenty one,

81
00:04:37,960 --> 00:04:42,159
Speaker 3: as we all know, then accelerated and then it cooled

82
00:04:42,240 --> 00:04:46,560
Speaker 3: to roughly a three percent year over year pace by

83
00:04:46,600 --> 00:04:50,520
Speaker 3: this past September, so nine point one percent inflation.

84
00:04:52,000 --> 00:04:53,360
Speaker 4: It was. It was very modesty.

85
00:04:53,480 --> 00:04:56,360
Speaker 3: You know, Trump's right when he talks about the bat

86
00:04:56,400 --> 00:04:58,680
Speaker 3: he doesn't refer to the basket of goods, but he

87
00:04:58,720 --> 00:05:01,760
Speaker 3: talks about inflation was around one point nine percent or

88
00:05:01,800 --> 00:05:05,960
Speaker 3: so when he was when he was president, and then

89
00:05:06,040 --> 00:05:08,960
Speaker 3: COVID hit, and everything just kind of gets frozen in time.

90
00:05:09,400 --> 00:05:11,360
Speaker 3: It's kind of like finding, you know, a fossil, that's

91
00:05:11,440 --> 00:05:14,160
Speaker 3: finding a you know, a some sort of bub frozen

92
00:05:14,200 --> 00:05:15,520
Speaker 3: in an iceberg somewhere.

93
00:05:15,880 --> 00:05:17,200
Speaker 4: And that's what COVID did.

94
00:05:17,600 --> 00:05:21,240
Speaker 3: And then when COVID all that pent up demand, you

95
00:05:21,279 --> 00:05:24,800
Speaker 3: think about all the pent up demand. We we should

96
00:05:24,839 --> 00:05:28,360
Speaker 3: never forget COVID. We should never forget Pearl Harbor, we

97
00:05:28,440 --> 00:05:31,520
Speaker 3: should never forget nine to eleven. We should never forget

98
00:05:31,680 --> 00:05:36,279
Speaker 3: COVID because it really screwed up everything. And then COVID

99
00:05:36,520 --> 00:05:38,640
Speaker 3: kind of gets over because we're all just kind of

100
00:05:38,640 --> 00:05:40,400
Speaker 3: tired of and we all say, you know what, screw this,

101
00:05:40,600 --> 00:05:43,160
Speaker 3: I'm going out and business, screw this. I'm going to

102
00:05:43,200 --> 00:05:45,560
Speaker 3: open up. And then boom, all that pent up demand.

103
00:05:45,800 --> 00:05:49,120
Speaker 3: And so you start getting inflation. And in addition to

104
00:05:49,160 --> 00:05:52,800
Speaker 3: that inflation that you would naturally get from going from zero,

105
00:05:53,120 --> 00:05:54,960
Speaker 3: you go from one hundred miles an hour to zero,

106
00:05:55,320 --> 00:05:57,800
Speaker 3: and then you start hitting the accelerator again and you

107
00:05:57,880 --> 00:06:01,000
Speaker 3: quickly get back up to you know, one hundred miles. Well,

108
00:06:01,000 --> 00:06:05,480
Speaker 3: of course that's going to increase inflation. From early twenty

109
00:06:05,560 --> 00:06:09,560
Speaker 3: seventeen to January twenty one, prices rose very modestly about

110
00:06:09,560 --> 00:06:13,080
Speaker 3: that one point nine percent. Then it accelerated after January

111
00:06:13,080 --> 00:06:16,680
Speaker 3: twenty one when Biden came into office, before cooling off too,

112
00:06:16,760 --> 00:06:19,240
Speaker 3: roughly a three percent year over year, paced by this

113
00:06:19,279 --> 00:06:22,720
Speaker 3: past September. So that's kind of the bell curve that

114
00:06:22,760 --> 00:06:28,960
Speaker 3: we've experienced. Shelter and food played outside roles in the

115
00:06:29,080 --> 00:06:33,279
Speaker 3: run up, and more moderate gains lately.

116
00:06:34,080 --> 00:06:34,279
Speaker 4: Now.

117
00:06:34,320 --> 00:06:37,840
Speaker 3: Of course, shelter and food the two very basics out

118
00:06:37,880 --> 00:06:41,360
Speaker 3: of that basket that we need. So let's break down

119
00:06:41,400 --> 00:06:43,520
Speaker 3: what's in the basket, because you if we're going to

120
00:06:43,600 --> 00:06:45,440
Speaker 3: analyze the basket, you need to know what's in the

121
00:06:45,520 --> 00:06:49,240
Speaker 3: damn basket, right like we'll do this picnic basket. The

122
00:06:49,320 --> 00:06:52,239
Speaker 3: CPI basket includes major groups.

123
00:06:52,320 --> 00:06:52,760
Speaker 4: Housing.

124
00:06:53,279 --> 00:06:56,359
Speaker 3: They define it as shelter, food at home, and food

125
00:06:56,440 --> 00:07:01,000
Speaker 3: away from home. Energy as a broad category, which includes

126
00:07:01,360 --> 00:07:06,239
Speaker 3: gasoline for your car, electricity utilities, gas, et cetera, natural gas,

127
00:07:06,760 --> 00:07:12,280
Speaker 3: transportation that's new and used, vehicles, including the insurance for

128
00:07:12,320 --> 00:07:17,760
Speaker 3: those vehicles. Medical care, apparel you know, jeens, white shirt, sneakers,

129
00:07:17,760 --> 00:07:21,360
Speaker 3: that's all you really need. Education and communication, and then

130
00:07:21,680 --> 00:07:24,440
Speaker 3: quote other goods and services. That's all according to the

131
00:07:24,480 --> 00:07:28,560
Speaker 3: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Now they publish a relative importance

132
00:07:28,680 --> 00:07:32,679
Speaker 3: table every year. As of December this past December twenty

133
00:07:32,680 --> 00:07:38,880
Speaker 3: twenty four, Shelter, which means housing in your insurance costs,

134
00:07:39,080 --> 00:07:40,480
Speaker 3: whether it's homeowners or renters.

135
00:07:40,480 --> 00:07:43,840
Speaker 4: Insurance is the largest single category.

136
00:07:44,720 --> 00:07:48,960
Speaker 3: Food and energy together account for a meaningful share, and

137
00:07:49,040 --> 00:07:54,240
Speaker 3: weights reflect average consumer spending patterns from two years prior

138
00:07:55,320 --> 00:07:59,480
Speaker 3: per their annual weighted update policy. That's just the way

139
00:07:59,520 --> 00:08:06,840
Speaker 3: they cat related so specific CPI series illustrate the basket's breadth.

140
00:08:06,920 --> 00:08:11,400
Speaker 3: For example, the Bureau of Labor Statistics tabulations include gasoline

141
00:08:11,400 --> 00:08:14,400
Speaker 3: of all types, electricity, food at home, food away from home,

142
00:08:14,440 --> 00:08:18,880
Speaker 3: new vehicles, use cars and trucks, and detailed medical care components.

143
00:08:19,720 --> 00:08:23,560
Speaker 3: They roll all that up to all items. So let's

144
00:08:23,560 --> 00:08:28,000
Speaker 3: do a price change, just Trump versus Biden under Trump

145
00:08:28,960 --> 00:08:33,240
Speaker 3: Trump one point zero to be specific, January seventeen, January

146
00:08:33,280 --> 00:08:38,600
Speaker 3: twenty one. The all items CPI rows from, and they

147
00:08:38,600 --> 00:08:40,679
Speaker 3: have baseline numbers. I'm just gonna give you. I'm not

148
00:08:40,679 --> 00:08:42,560
Speaker 3: gonna give you the full number. I'm just gonna give

149
00:08:42,600 --> 00:08:47,559
Speaker 3: you the numbers before the decimal rose from two hundred

150
00:08:47,600 --> 00:08:51,400
Speaker 3: and forty two. That's just the number in January seventeen

151
00:08:51,480 --> 00:08:53,920
Speaker 3: to two hundred and sixty one in January twenty one.

152
00:08:54,520 --> 00:08:59,720
Speaker 3: That implies a cumulative inflation of approximately seven point seven

153
00:08:59,720 --> 00:09:05,000
Speaker 3: percent over the entire term. That's over the entire term,

154
00:09:05,320 --> 00:09:08,880
Speaker 3: so you remember we're comparing apples to apples here. Then,

155
00:09:08,960 --> 00:09:13,800
Speaker 3: from twenty seventeen to twenty nineteen, twelve month inflation often

156
00:09:13,880 --> 00:09:17,120
Speaker 3: ran around that one point ninety two percent before the

157
00:09:17,200 --> 00:09:20,720
Speaker 3: pandemic disruption sent inflation even lower than that. I mean,

158
00:09:20,760 --> 00:09:23,520
Speaker 3: there's nobody wh's spending anything, so you really can't have

159
00:09:23,600 --> 00:09:24,320
Speaker 3: any inflation.

160
00:09:25,080 --> 00:09:27,760
Speaker 4: And all of that seems to be, from what I can.

161
00:09:27,640 --> 00:09:31,840
Speaker 3: Tell, consistent with the Bureau Labor Statistics long run charts

162
00:09:32,520 --> 00:09:36,760
Speaker 3: of category level twelve month changes. So Trump's right, two

163
00:09:36,840 --> 00:09:40,280
Speaker 3: percent or below over that twelve month period from twenty

164
00:09:40,360 --> 00:09:46,000
Speaker 3: seventeen twenty nineteen. Now under Biden, let's go from January

165
00:09:46,040 --> 00:09:50,520
Speaker 3: twenty one to the latest twenty twenty five readings. Because

166
00:09:50,679 --> 00:09:53,520
Speaker 3: price because he wasn't elected to November, right, all right,

167
00:09:53,520 --> 00:09:56,360
Speaker 3: here we go twenty four November twenty four, This goes

168
00:09:56,400 --> 00:10:02,480
Speaker 3: through twenty five. Price levels increase sharply between twenty twenty

169
00:10:02,520 --> 00:10:07,199
Speaker 3: one and twenty twenty two. Then decelerated, with the CPI

170
00:10:07,760 --> 00:10:12,160
Speaker 3: up zero point three percent in September twenty twenty five,

171
00:10:13,000 --> 00:10:17,679
Speaker 3: running on average three percent year over year as the

172
00:10:17,760 --> 00:10:22,880
Speaker 3: latest report, compared to the earlier nine point one percent

173
00:10:23,080 --> 00:10:28,679
Speaker 3: year over year during that Biden period. So that's the

174
00:10:28,840 --> 00:10:34,920
Speaker 3: overall number, so the affordability on that very broad basis,

175
00:10:36,080 --> 00:10:39,920
Speaker 3: Republicans obviously are not doing a very good job of

176
00:10:40,000 --> 00:10:46,720
Speaker 3: explaining that. Yes, broadly speaking, prices have moderated. Inflation has

177
00:10:47,280 --> 00:10:51,640
Speaker 3: dropped from the nine point one to an average of

178
00:10:51,760 --> 00:10:55,880
Speaker 3: three percent year every year. Now, food at home prices

179
00:10:56,000 --> 00:11:01,959
Speaker 3: groceries ended high relative to two the twenty twenty one levels,

180
00:11:02,679 --> 00:11:06,640
Speaker 3: with the food at home index was at three hundred

181
00:11:06,640 --> 00:11:11,160
Speaker 3: and fifteen in this past September and twelve month food

182
00:11:11,200 --> 00:11:16,679
Speaker 3: at home inflation running two point seven percent this past

183
00:11:16,679 --> 00:11:21,480
Speaker 3: September in that same while food away from home was

184
00:11:21,559 --> 00:11:24,600
Speaker 3: up three point seven percent. So if you feel like

185
00:11:24,679 --> 00:11:28,000
Speaker 3: grocery prices are still going up, they have. Grocery prices

186
00:11:28,040 --> 00:11:30,839
Speaker 3: are still up. They the average is two point seven

187
00:11:30,880 --> 00:11:34,440
Speaker 3: percent in September, and food away eating abbs up even

188
00:11:34,440 --> 00:11:38,199
Speaker 3: more three point seven percent. Now, everybody's minding just going

189
00:11:38,200 --> 00:11:40,600
Speaker 3: to vary depending upon you know, whether you the taco

190
00:11:40,720 --> 00:11:44,199
Speaker 3: bell all the time, or you go to venice restaurante

191
00:11:44,240 --> 00:11:44,800
Speaker 3: all the time.

192
00:11:45,280 --> 00:11:47,960
Speaker 4: It's going to vary.

193
00:11:48,000 --> 00:11:53,600
Speaker 3: But shelter, that was the key driver of core inflation

194
00:11:54,120 --> 00:11:57,280
Speaker 3: in twenty twenty two through twenty twenty three. Shelter was

195
00:11:57,400 --> 00:12:00,720
Speaker 3: up almost eight percent year over year in January of

196
00:12:00,760 --> 00:12:04,120
Speaker 3: twenty three. Now it has cooled a little bit. Shelter

197
00:12:04,240 --> 00:12:08,280
Speaker 3: is now running roughly three point six percent year over

198
00:12:08,360 --> 00:12:12,960
Speaker 3: year by late summer of last year, of this year,

199
00:12:13,120 --> 00:12:17,839
Speaker 3: late summer of this year, sorry, So shelter as part

200
00:12:17,880 --> 00:12:21,839
Speaker 3: of that component of the basket of goods is really

201
00:12:21,880 --> 00:12:25,240
Speaker 3: still high, and the inflation rate is still higher than

202
00:12:25,360 --> 00:12:28,440
Speaker 3: the core inflation of the entire basket. So if you

203
00:12:28,440 --> 00:12:31,880
Speaker 3: look at the entire basket, and you could put the

204
00:12:31,920 --> 00:12:36,000
Speaker 3: goods in that basket and pile them up relative to

205
00:12:36,360 --> 00:12:39,680
Speaker 3: the amount of inflation, well, groceries and stuff over here,

206
00:12:39,720 --> 00:12:41,800
Speaker 3: you know, apparel, everything else to be over here, probably

207
00:12:41,800 --> 00:12:44,080
Speaker 3: couldn't even see the top across the top of the basket.

208
00:12:44,880 --> 00:12:49,600
Speaker 3: But then you get to things like gasoline transportation, then

209
00:12:49,640 --> 00:12:51,600
Speaker 3: you start to see it a little bit higher over

210
00:12:51,640 --> 00:12:53,720
Speaker 3: the top of the rim of the basket. Then you

211
00:12:53,800 --> 00:12:56,840
Speaker 3: get to shelter and it's up even higher. It's like

212
00:12:56,960 --> 00:13:03,840
Speaker 3: real high compared to the others vehicle related components remained volatile.

213
00:13:04,559 --> 00:13:07,960
Speaker 3: Use vehicle serves earlier in the cycle then gave back

214
00:13:08,040 --> 00:13:11,640
Speaker 3: some gains as reflected by the used cars and trucks

215
00:13:12,360 --> 00:13:16,440
Speaker 3: the CPI put that they put in there, and they're

216
00:13:16,760 --> 00:13:21,520
Speaker 3: the BLS's methodological notes on used vehicle measurement updates in

217
00:13:21,600 --> 00:13:24,400
Speaker 3: twenty twenty four. Now there's some important notes on gasoline.

218
00:13:25,040 --> 00:13:28,040
Speaker 3: Gasoline is part of the basket under the Energy Group,

219
00:13:28,640 --> 00:13:32,680
Speaker 3: and the Bureau Labor Statistics list gasoline of all types

220
00:13:32,840 --> 00:13:36,280
Speaker 3: explicitly among the components that they measure, even though it

221
00:13:36,320 --> 00:13:41,160
Speaker 3: is often analyzed separately because it's so volatile. Well, I

222
00:13:41,240 --> 00:13:45,360
Speaker 3: understand it's volatile, but again, that gasoline, I think should

223
00:13:45,679 --> 00:13:48,120
Speaker 3: I don't like the Guess what I'm saying is I

224
00:13:48,120 --> 00:13:51,880
Speaker 3: don't like their methodology because gasoline is something that we

225
00:13:51,960 --> 00:13:54,439
Speaker 3: all need. You've got to get to work somehow. And

226
00:13:54,520 --> 00:13:57,480
Speaker 3: unless you're riding a horse, unless you know, and even

227
00:13:57,520 --> 00:14:00,160
Speaker 3: if you're riding light rail, whatever you're doing, and I know,

228
00:14:00,200 --> 00:14:03,640
Speaker 3: those prices are fixed and obviously RTD is not going

229
00:14:03,679 --> 00:14:06,719
Speaker 3: to jack up the prices. But nonetheless that goes into

230
00:14:06,720 --> 00:14:09,200
Speaker 3: the cost of operation, which is one reason why RTD

231
00:14:09,320 --> 00:14:11,720
Speaker 3: is in the whole, plus the lack of ridership. But

232
00:14:11,760 --> 00:14:14,080
Speaker 3: then you need a car, an uber something to get

233
00:14:14,080 --> 00:14:16,840
Speaker 3: to work. So I think it should remain in the basket,

234
00:14:17,160 --> 00:14:19,520
Speaker 3: even though they kind of compare it outside the basket.

235
00:14:20,240 --> 00:14:23,040
Speaker 3: So let's think about gasoline prices of Trump versus Biden

236
00:14:24,440 --> 00:14:26,200
Speaker 3: Trump period context.

237
00:14:26,360 --> 00:14:29,560
Speaker 4: Let's put it that way just a context.

238
00:14:32,400 --> 00:14:37,640
Speaker 3: The EIA's weekly retailed gasoline history shows prices were relatively

239
00:14:37,960 --> 00:14:42,720
Speaker 3: moderate twenty seventeen twenty nineteen, fell sharply in twenty twenty

240
00:14:42,760 --> 00:14:46,240
Speaker 3: because of the pandemic, recovered into early twenty twenty one,

241
00:14:46,880 --> 00:14:50,480
Speaker 3: and that reflects the broad macro shocks to demand and

242
00:14:50,520 --> 00:14:53,760
Speaker 3: then all the refining activity because of shutdowns during COVID.

243
00:14:54,480 --> 00:14:59,800
Speaker 3: They're not refining much because nobody's consuming much. Biden period context,

244
00:15:01,280 --> 00:15:05,080
Speaker 3: retail gas prices rose into mid twenty twenty two, retreated

245
00:15:05,120 --> 00:15:08,800
Speaker 3: a little bit, with current EIA reading showing US regular

246
00:15:08,880 --> 00:15:11,600
Speaker 3: at about three dollars two cents per gallon for the

247
00:15:11,600 --> 00:15:15,480
Speaker 3: week of November third, twenty twenty five. There have been

248
00:15:15,520 --> 00:15:18,360
Speaker 3: small weeked week fluctuations. I noticed that going to SAMs.

249
00:15:18,960 --> 00:15:20,320
Speaker 3: I think I told you one day, I was like

250
00:15:20,400 --> 00:15:24,760
Speaker 3: shocked that the premium unleaded was blow three dollars a gallon.

251
00:15:24,760 --> 00:15:26,800
Speaker 3: It was like two dollars and eighty four cents or something.

252
00:15:27,000 --> 00:15:28,640
Speaker 3: I go back to SAMs like a week later, and

253
00:15:28,640 --> 00:15:31,080
Speaker 3: what now, It's three dollars and twenty five cents a gallon.

254
00:15:32,280 --> 00:15:33,880
Speaker 4: So probably the.

255
00:15:33,840 --> 00:15:38,880
Speaker 3: Most volatile of all components of that basket of goods.

256
00:15:39,720 --> 00:15:40,040
Speaker 4: Now.

257
00:15:40,440 --> 00:15:44,760
Speaker 3: The FRED weekly retail gasoline series depicts mid twenty twenty

258
00:15:44,800 --> 00:15:49,920
Speaker 3: two spikes and then subsequent normalization between twenty twenty three

259
00:15:49,960 --> 00:15:53,760
Speaker 3: and twenty twenty five, situating the latest levels near the

260
00:15:53,920 --> 00:15:59,280
Speaker 3: lower end of the post spike range after COVID as

261
00:15:59,320 --> 00:16:03,600
Speaker 3: early as a this past no vement as actually this month.

262
00:16:04,640 --> 00:16:08,440
Speaker 3: So yes, gas prices according to Trump and according to

263
00:16:08,480 --> 00:16:12,960
Speaker 3: the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Saint Louis Federal Reserve,

264
00:16:13,560 --> 00:16:19,080
Speaker 3: gas prices have lowered significantly. But here's an additional point

265
00:16:19,080 --> 00:16:23,360
Speaker 3: of reference. Aggregated series show the national retail gasoline price

266
00:16:23,680 --> 00:16:27,320
Speaker 3: is slightly blow its level of a year earlier, indicating

267
00:16:27,720 --> 00:16:32,200
Speaker 3: limited inflationary pressure from gas over the past twelve months.

268
00:16:32,800 --> 00:16:39,200
Speaker 3: So whatever pressure there is on inflation, because it's remained relatively.

269
00:16:38,880 --> 00:16:40,920
Speaker 4: Below its level of a year earlier.

270
00:16:41,240 --> 00:16:43,880
Speaker 3: You can't blame gas In other words, if if you

271
00:16:43,920 --> 00:16:47,040
Speaker 3: hear somebody talking about these stats and they say, oh, no,

272
00:16:47,120 --> 00:16:50,440
Speaker 3: inflation is higher, well it's because they're throwing gasoline back

273
00:16:50,520 --> 00:16:53,840
Speaker 3: into that basket of goods and bls is taking it out.

274
00:16:53,880 --> 00:16:56,480
Speaker 3: Because it's so volatile going up and down, it doesn't

275
00:16:56,480 --> 00:16:59,960
Speaker 3: give you a very rational picture of what inflation affordability

276
00:17:00,080 --> 00:17:00,720
Speaker 3: he really is.

277
00:17:03,880 --> 00:17:06,080
Speaker 4: Here's the summary. I'll have to finish this after the break.

278
00:17:07,200 --> 00:17:12,479
Speaker 3: Overall inflation has slowed materially this year, with the latest

279
00:17:12,480 --> 00:17:17,520
Speaker 3: CPI release showing zero point three percent monthly rise. That's

280
00:17:17,640 --> 00:17:21,400
Speaker 3: roughly a three percent twelve month rate as of September

281
00:17:21,600 --> 00:17:26,479
Speaker 3: of this year, a backdrop that reduces the pace at

282
00:17:26,520 --> 00:17:31,480
Speaker 3: which living costs are compounding compared to Biden era in

283
00:17:31,560 --> 00:17:35,840
Speaker 3: twenty twenty two. Yeah, that's a complicated way of explaining it,

284
00:17:36,080 --> 00:17:39,720
Speaker 3: but in simpler terms, it's this. Yes, Trump's right, Inflation

285
00:17:39,880 --> 00:17:43,280
Speaker 3: is way down three percent or lower right now. So

286
00:17:43,320 --> 00:17:44,359
Speaker 3: why do we feel like it's not?

287
00:17:45,560 --> 00:17:48,920
Speaker 6: Mike and Dragon, thank you for listening to my little

288
00:17:49,000 --> 00:17:53,239
Speaker 6: stupid talk back. I know it's not very exciting, but

289
00:17:53,600 --> 00:17:57,640
Speaker 6: I just thought i'd throwing in there Anyway, you guys

290
00:17:57,880 --> 00:18:02,359
Speaker 6: have a wonderful evening, and it'll be fun seeing you

291
00:18:02,440 --> 00:18:05,920
Speaker 6: in the new time slot at your new station.

292
00:18:07,359 --> 00:18:12,520
Speaker 3: Later. They they can see us because I didn't wear

293
00:18:12,560 --> 00:18:13,280
Speaker 3: any pants today.

294
00:18:14,640 --> 00:18:17,840
Speaker 2: I uh uh oh, yeah, she said.

295
00:18:17,680 --> 00:18:19,320
Speaker 3: She can wait to see us in the new time slot.

296
00:18:19,320 --> 00:18:22,040
Speaker 3: Are there are there secret cameras over there or over

297
00:18:22,080 --> 00:18:23,960
Speaker 3: here or what? I'm now nervous about it.

298
00:18:23,960 --> 00:18:25,560
Speaker 5: I'm just looking out the window here. I mean, we

299
00:18:25,600 --> 00:18:28,080
Speaker 5: do see apartment. Well is she over there?

300
00:18:28,160 --> 00:18:30,800
Speaker 3: Is she over there with the telescope, She across the

301
00:18:30,800 --> 00:18:32,159
Speaker 3: street with the telescope watching us.

302
00:18:32,160 --> 00:18:38,760
Speaker 5: You better close those blinds, Michael. I would if they could,

303
00:18:38,960 --> 00:18:42,560
Speaker 5: well two of them. They're permanently closed.

304
00:18:44,960 --> 00:18:48,400
Speaker 3: Okay, back to uh somebody says, Michael, can you hear

305
00:18:48,400 --> 00:18:48,800
Speaker 3: me yawning?

306
00:18:49,600 --> 00:18:52,720
Speaker 4: Yeah, bite me if you want.

307
00:18:52,800 --> 00:18:57,600
Speaker 3: If if you want some uh ammo to combat the

308
00:18:57,640 --> 00:19:00,919
Speaker 3: whole affordability issue, I'm giving it to you. I know

309
00:19:00,960 --> 00:19:03,919
Speaker 3: there's stats. Stats are boring. I'm trying to give it

310
00:19:03,920 --> 00:19:06,560
Speaker 3: to you in a way that's interesting. Obviously, I'm failing

311
00:19:06,560 --> 00:19:10,800
Speaker 3: for one person. Let's go to shelter, because shelter is

312
00:19:11,520 --> 00:19:18,400
Speaker 3: probably the biggest driver of affordability, whether it's rent mortgage,

313
00:19:19,640 --> 00:19:24,880
Speaker 3: your mortgage rates, whatever it is, and that's obviously central

314
00:19:24,920 --> 00:19:26,080
Speaker 3: to household budgets.

315
00:19:26,520 --> 00:19:28,840
Speaker 4: You got to live somewhere, whether.

316
00:19:28,640 --> 00:19:32,399
Speaker 3: You rent by or you know, or you got to

317
00:19:32,400 --> 00:19:34,840
Speaker 3: buy a new tenant RII so you can go sleep

318
00:19:34,840 --> 00:19:35,480
Speaker 3: out on the street.

319
00:19:35,960 --> 00:19:39,679
Speaker 4: You got to have something. It has eased from.

320
00:19:39,560 --> 00:19:45,280
Speaker 3: Earlier peaks, with shelter CPI decelerating to about three point

321
00:19:45,320 --> 00:19:50,280
Speaker 3: six percent year over year by this past summer, though

322
00:19:50,320 --> 00:19:54,280
Speaker 3: the level remains elevated relative to early twenty twenty one,

323
00:19:55,119 --> 00:19:58,280
Speaker 3: after all of those years of just outsized the increases.

324
00:19:58,320 --> 00:20:00,600
Speaker 3: You know, you look at the value your home and

325
00:20:00,640 --> 00:20:05,399
Speaker 3: it just went it's skyrocketed. So that is one of

326
00:20:05,440 --> 00:20:09,080
Speaker 3: the reasons why people still feel like affordability is a crisis.

327
00:20:09,119 --> 00:20:13,359
Speaker 3: And part of that is because we have these relatively

328
00:20:13,400 --> 00:20:18,280
Speaker 3: speaking high interest rates. And why do I say relatively

329
00:20:18,359 --> 00:20:21,440
Speaker 3: high interest rates, because we went for years at zero

330
00:20:21,560 --> 00:20:25,800
Speaker 3: percent and so your mortgage rate, yeah I got a

331
00:20:25,840 --> 00:20:28,800
Speaker 3: two percent mortgage. Yeah, well there was a time when

332
00:20:28,800 --> 00:20:32,000
Speaker 3: I had a twenty one percent mortgage. So it's all relative.

333
00:20:32,600 --> 00:20:34,840
Speaker 3: And of course, the more we print money, the more

334
00:20:34,880 --> 00:20:39,240
Speaker 3: we go along through discontinued government spending, that twenty one

335
00:20:39,320 --> 00:20:43,160
Speaker 3: percent mortgage today. The dollars that I used to pay

336
00:20:43,160 --> 00:20:45,200
Speaker 3: a twenty one percent mortgage, which I kept for about

337
00:20:45,200 --> 00:20:48,480
Speaker 3: two years before I sold and moved on. Can you

338
00:20:48,480 --> 00:20:53,640
Speaker 3: imagine what those dollars are worth today. Food inflation has

339
00:20:53,680 --> 00:20:57,639
Speaker 3: also moderated food at home up two point seven percent

340
00:20:57,760 --> 00:21:00,240
Speaker 3: year over year, food away from home, as I set

341
00:21:00,280 --> 00:21:04,280
Speaker 3: up three point seven percent as of this past September. Now,

342
00:21:04,320 --> 00:21:08,359
Speaker 3: that helps stabilize grocery and dining costs compared with the

343
00:21:08,520 --> 00:21:12,400
Speaker 3: rapid increases seen earlier in the cyclo when Biden was president,

344
00:21:13,600 --> 00:21:17,000
Speaker 3: But we don't point it out. And again you've got

345
00:21:17,040 --> 00:21:20,960
Speaker 3: the problem of yes, it's moderated, but it's still going up.

346
00:21:22,160 --> 00:21:25,800
Speaker 3: It's just going up at a much slower rate. So

347
00:21:25,840 --> 00:21:27,399
Speaker 3: then that begs the question of what are we going

348
00:21:27,480 --> 00:21:31,320
Speaker 3: to define affordability as do we want deflation?

349
00:21:31,920 --> 00:21:32,040
Speaker 4: Oh?

350
00:21:32,119 --> 00:21:34,959
Speaker 3: Yeah, we do want we want prices to go. You know,

351
00:21:35,720 --> 00:21:38,640
Speaker 3: does Walmart still do that price rollback thing they used

352
00:21:38,640 --> 00:21:38,879
Speaker 3: to do?

353
00:21:39,800 --> 00:21:40,600
Speaker 2: I don't recall.

354
00:21:40,880 --> 00:21:42,720
Speaker 4: I don't either. I just don't know if I haven't

355
00:21:42,760 --> 00:21:43,880
Speaker 4: heard any ads about that.

356
00:21:43,960 --> 00:21:45,880
Speaker 3: But it used to be you go into a Walmart

357
00:21:45,880 --> 00:21:48,920
Speaker 3: and they have signs everywhere price rollback. Now I was

358
00:21:48,920 --> 00:21:53,560
Speaker 3: always curious compared to what last week or five years ago,

359
00:21:53,640 --> 00:21:53,920
Speaker 3: or what.

360
00:21:54,800 --> 00:21:57,200
Speaker 4: I think this We've been trained to think that way.

361
00:21:58,560 --> 00:22:02,520
Speaker 3: If the loaf of bread is buck fifty today and

362
00:22:02,560 --> 00:22:04,960
Speaker 3: at one time it was a dollar, and we remember

363
00:22:05,040 --> 00:22:07,080
Speaker 3: the dollar, and we look at the dollar fifty today

364
00:22:07,200 --> 00:22:10,240
Speaker 3: and we're like, oh my gods, this outrages is too expensive. Well,

365
00:22:10,280 --> 00:22:12,800
Speaker 3: when you consider the value of your dollar and how

366
00:22:12,800 --> 00:22:16,520
Speaker 3: it's been degraded by Congress spending so much money, borrowing

367
00:22:16,560 --> 00:22:19,560
Speaker 3: so much money, that buck fifty is probably not too bad.

368
00:22:19,880 --> 00:22:22,200
Speaker 3: But that doesn't matter to the person who's living paycheck

369
00:22:22,280 --> 00:22:25,399
Speaker 3: to paycheck. The person who doesn't understand how, you know,

370
00:22:25,520 --> 00:22:28,159
Speaker 3: economics work, are trying to save a little bit of money.

371
00:22:28,440 --> 00:22:34,000
Speaker 3: Same is true with gasoline borrowing costs. Another problem. Borrowing

372
00:22:34,040 --> 00:22:37,720
Speaker 3: costs remain a headwind for home buyers, even as even

373
00:22:37,760 --> 00:22:41,920
Speaker 3: though rates edge down, thirty year fixed mortgage rate tracking

374
00:22:42,000 --> 00:22:45,600
Speaker 3: about six point one seven percent at the end of October. That's,

375
00:22:45,640 --> 00:22:51,720
Speaker 3: according to Freddie Mac, improving affordability modestly from the highs

376
00:22:51,720 --> 00:22:55,240
Speaker 3: of twenty twenty three, but still far above the twenty

377
00:22:55,320 --> 00:23:01,479
Speaker 3: twenty two levels. Again, you can blame COVID zero percent

378
00:23:02,480 --> 00:23:06,600
Speaker 3: interest rates, zero percent interest rates two percent mortgages increases

379
00:23:06,680 --> 00:23:08,760
Speaker 3: demand because you can get a cheap mortgage. So now

380
00:23:08,760 --> 00:23:11,040
Speaker 3: people are all out buying houses and there's a lack

381
00:23:11,040 --> 00:23:13,600
Speaker 3: of inventory. Why was there a lack of inventory because

382
00:23:13,640 --> 00:23:15,960
Speaker 3: of COVID and people weren't building, and people slowed down

383
00:23:16,000 --> 00:23:19,640
Speaker 3: because the economy had stopped. And so now you've got oversupply,

384
00:23:20,400 --> 00:23:23,879
Speaker 3: and you've got feeding that oversupply, low mortgage rates, so

385
00:23:23,960 --> 00:23:27,440
Speaker 3: more people trying to buy fewer houses. Of course, it's

386
00:23:27,480 --> 00:23:32,119
Speaker 3: gonna take a while to recover from that. So the

387
00:23:32,160 --> 00:23:37,600
Speaker 3: bottom line on basket prices and affordability. The CPI basket

388
00:23:37,720 --> 00:23:41,840
Speaker 3: is broad includes gas, shelter, food, vehicle related items that

389
00:23:42,560 --> 00:23:46,560
Speaker 3: the pivotal drivers of the post twenty twenty one price

390
00:23:46,640 --> 00:23:51,280
Speaker 3: level increase and the recent coolia of inflation concentrated in

391
00:23:51,359 --> 00:23:55,359
Speaker 3: shelter and goods beginning to ease. Price growth under Trump

392
00:23:56,520 --> 00:24:01,160
Speaker 3: relatively modest at roughly seven to eight percent quothly through

393
00:24:01,320 --> 00:24:04,800
Speaker 3: January of twenty one, while the Biden period saw a

394
00:24:04,960 --> 00:24:09,280
Speaker 3: sharp upswing followed by a cooling to about three percent

395
00:24:09,440 --> 00:24:14,440
Speaker 3: year over year as of September. This past September, leaving

396
00:24:14,480 --> 00:24:18,960
Speaker 3: the price level materially higher than in early twenty twenty one,

397
00:24:19,640 --> 00:24:22,160
Speaker 3: but now rising more slowly in the past year.

398
00:24:23,040 --> 00:24:24,159
Speaker 4: Now, over the past.

399
00:24:23,960 --> 00:24:28,920
Speaker 3: Year since Trump's election, affordability has improved at the margin

400
00:24:29,520 --> 00:24:36,159
Speaker 3: because of slower inflation, positive real earnings growth, but elevated

401
00:24:36,240 --> 00:24:40,920
Speaker 3: shelter costs and still high borrowing costs continued to constrain

402
00:24:41,400 --> 00:24:47,080
Speaker 3: household budgets. That's compared relative to when Biden took office.

403
00:24:47,640 --> 00:24:49,679
Speaker 3: Why do you think he's putting so much pressure on

404
00:24:49,760 --> 00:24:53,240
Speaker 3: Jerome Paler in the federal Reserve. You've got to lower

405
00:24:53,280 --> 00:24:57,399
Speaker 3: those borrowing costs to free up the housing market, and

406
00:24:57,520 --> 00:25:01,720
Speaker 3: that alone will create the I was gonna say illusion,

407
00:25:01,760 --> 00:25:05,480
Speaker 3: Illusion is not the word. It'll create the appearance, the

408
00:25:05,560 --> 00:25:09,120
Speaker 3: perception that things are getting better when people can start

409
00:25:09,200 --> 00:25:12,160
Speaker 3: buying houses again, because that's one of the key factors

410
00:25:12,160 --> 00:25:14,760
Speaker 3: and what people look at in terms of what's my

411
00:25:14,880 --> 00:25:20,040
Speaker 3: cost of living. So the Bureau of Labor Statistics Relative

412
00:25:20,080 --> 00:25:23,760
Speaker 3: Importance updates that they do every December, and the monthly

413
00:25:23,800 --> 00:25:27,800
Speaker 3: CPI tables for the kind of the granular category trends

414
00:25:28,400 --> 00:25:32,159
Speaker 3: and weight all the weight shifts that affect how the

415
00:25:32,160 --> 00:25:39,320
Speaker 3: basket transmits category inflation into headline. Cpis the weekly retail

416
00:25:39,359 --> 00:25:43,399
Speaker 3: gas line update for near term fuel cost dynamics impacting

417
00:25:43,480 --> 00:25:47,399
Speaker 3: both consumers and supply chains is another key data point.

418
00:25:48,080 --> 00:25:50,280
Speaker 3: And then the last MO would be the Bureau of

419
00:25:50,359 --> 00:25:56,879
Speaker 3: Labor Statistics Real Earning Summary and Freddie Max PMMs for

420
00:25:57,000 --> 00:26:02,320
Speaker 3: the interplay of wages and borrowing costs. Bottom line is

421
00:26:02,400 --> 00:26:07,879
Speaker 3: very simply, this affordability has improved in certain areas, it

422
00:26:07,960 --> 00:26:12,000
Speaker 3: has remained steady in other areas. And then in the

423
00:26:12,080 --> 00:26:14,879
Speaker 3: price in the areas where it is probably most important

424
00:26:14,880 --> 00:26:20,440
Speaker 3: to people's perception groceries, it's slowed. The rate of inflation

425
00:26:20,600 --> 00:26:26,679
Speaker 3: has slowed, but inflation still exists. Now, inflation that somewhere

426
00:26:26,680 --> 00:26:30,320
Speaker 3: between two and three percent is going to be noticeable

427
00:26:31,200 --> 00:26:33,520
Speaker 3: because that's going to you know, when that occurs every

428
00:26:33,520 --> 00:26:37,040
Speaker 3: single month. You notice that if it's below two percent,

429
00:26:37,600 --> 00:26:40,399
Speaker 3: which is the two percent or blow is the Fed's target.

430
00:26:40,920 --> 00:26:44,240
Speaker 3: When it gets below that two percent, it's less noticeable.

431
00:26:44,760 --> 00:26:48,920
Speaker 3: And it's also means that whatever they're selling, both the

432
00:26:49,000 --> 00:26:52,440
Speaker 3: blows of bread or widgets or whatever, they can probably

433
00:26:52,480 --> 00:26:56,520
Speaker 3: absorb those prices and start trying to grab larger market share.

434
00:26:56,960 --> 00:27:00,480
Speaker 3: So translate that into say groceries, that means that king

435
00:27:00,520 --> 00:27:05,159
Speaker 3: soupers can then start having sales and advertise lower prices

436
00:27:06,040 --> 00:27:09,160
Speaker 3: because they're absorbing some of that small increase they can

437
00:27:09,200 --> 00:27:12,000
Speaker 3: afford to do so, even with that type profit margin

438
00:27:12,040 --> 00:27:14,400
Speaker 3: that they have in a grocery store. And then that

439
00:27:14,440 --> 00:27:18,440
Speaker 3: translates to your perception that, oh, grocery prices aren't quite

440
00:27:18,480 --> 00:27:20,879
Speaker 3: as bad as they were, or they're coming back down.

441
00:27:22,800 --> 00:27:26,520
Speaker 3: The best thing that Trump can do is, as soon

442
00:27:26,560 --> 00:27:30,720
Speaker 3: as possible, replace Jerome Path to the Federal Reserve. They've

443
00:27:30,720 --> 00:27:35,000
Speaker 3: really screwed stuff up. And you look at what they've

444
00:27:35,040 --> 00:27:37,840
Speaker 3: done in terms of zero percent rates and keeping on

445
00:27:37,920 --> 00:27:40,879
Speaker 3: that zero percent for so long, knowing that part of

446
00:27:40,880 --> 00:27:44,000
Speaker 3: that is because of COVID and then being very very

447
00:27:44,040 --> 00:27:47,760
Speaker 3: slowly to I mean rapidly increasing and slow to decrease.

448
00:27:47,960 --> 00:27:51,800
Speaker 3: They're behind the eight ball. They're absolutely behind the eight ball.

449
00:27:52,600 --> 00:27:58,040
Speaker 3: And so you can you compound those interest rates with

450
00:27:58,080 --> 00:28:02,720
Speaker 3: what the inventories happen with how that is the largest

451
00:28:02,800 --> 00:28:06,080
Speaker 3: driver of everything. Because you look at gas, for example,

452
00:28:06,480 --> 00:28:08,199
Speaker 3: which is so volatile, they keep it out of the

453
00:28:08,200 --> 00:28:12,280
Speaker 3: basket most of the time. It's actually while it fluctuates

454
00:28:12,359 --> 00:28:16,480
Speaker 3: up and down, the trend line is downward, absolutely downward.

455
00:28:18,000 --> 00:28:21,320
Speaker 3: Bottom line is this Republicans have got to find a

456
00:28:21,359 --> 00:28:24,639
Speaker 3: way one to keep the pressure on the federal reserve.

457
00:28:24,840 --> 00:28:27,679
Speaker 3: Get German Pale out of there, get somebody else in,

458
00:28:28,680 --> 00:28:32,359
Speaker 3: get those interest rates lowered, and then get better at

459
00:28:32,800 --> 00:28:38,720
Speaker 3: whatever it takes to translate lower energy prices. And show

460
00:28:38,880 --> 00:28:43,280
Speaker 3: find some specific examples where lower energy costs have lowered

461
00:28:43,320 --> 00:28:47,000
Speaker 3: the price of a particular product and point that out.

462
00:28:47,200 --> 00:28:50,680
Speaker 3: Give people something to chew on, show them how it works,

463
00:28:51,240 --> 00:28:54,640
Speaker 3: because just affordability. Now, I know some of you are

464
00:28:54,720 --> 00:28:57,960
Speaker 3: yawning about this because I've just explained to you how

465
00:28:58,000 --> 00:29:01,560
Speaker 3: it really works and what the numbers really are. And

466
00:29:01,640 --> 00:29:05,080
Speaker 3: some of you yawned. That's fine, you know what the

467
00:29:05,160 --> 00:29:07,360
Speaker 3: numbers are. You know how it works.

468
00:29:07,760 --> 00:29:08,080
Speaker 4: Now.

469
00:29:08,480 --> 00:29:11,480
Speaker 3: Look out, you're driving to work, you're already in your office.

470
00:29:11,680 --> 00:29:14,840
Speaker 3: Look around at all the stupid people. You've got to

471
00:29:14,880 --> 00:29:17,920
Speaker 3: simplify it for. You got to put it in real numbers.

472
00:29:18,120 --> 00:29:20,600
Speaker 3: What's that loaf of bread? What's my mortgage rate? What

473
00:29:20,720 --> 00:29:24,360
Speaker 3: can I buy a house for? And when those things

474
00:29:24,360 --> 00:29:27,080
Speaker 3: start to change and you explain how we got to

475
00:29:27,120 --> 00:29:30,000
Speaker 3: where we are today, maybe they'll understand it.

476
00:29:30,880 --> 00:29:35,080
Speaker 1: Michael, I'm so glad we had this time together just

477
00:29:35,120 --> 00:29:37,160
Speaker 1: to have a laugh and sing a song.

478
00:29:39,160 --> 00:29:41,160
Speaker 2: But my day starts at six.

479
00:29:41,000 --> 00:29:44,680
Speaker 3: Am, and you'll no longer beyond.

480
00:29:46,240 --> 00:29:46,920
Speaker 4: Good riddance.

481
00:29:47,000 --> 00:29:49,640
Speaker 6: Fine, it's been fun.

482
00:29:53,440 --> 00:29:54,800
Speaker 4: Yea wall.

483
00:29:56,200 --> 00:30:01,320
Speaker 3: A lot, good riddance. We had a wonderful time together.

484
00:30:01,440 --> 00:30:03,880
Speaker 3: But you know now that I got your cheating year

485
00:30:03,920 --> 00:30:05,160
Speaker 3: out of here, Get out of here.

486
00:30:05,200 --> 00:30:09,160
Speaker 4: I'm done. I'm done, mom, Donnie.

487
00:30:09,440 --> 00:30:12,160
Speaker 3: I finally listened to his acceptance speech yesterday, and something

488
00:30:12,200 --> 00:30:12,840
Speaker 3: caught my ear.

489
00:30:14,240 --> 00:30:18,080
Speaker 2: Standing before you, I think of the words of Juan

490
00:30:18,200 --> 00:30:23,920
Speaker 2: l'al Neheru. A moment comes but rarely in his history, black,

491
00:30:23,960 --> 00:30:24,360
Speaker 2: black class.

492
00:30:25,160 --> 00:30:28,640
Speaker 5: What are the chances anybody in that audience recognizes that name?

493
00:30:28,800 --> 00:30:29,880
Speaker 2: But they cheered for it?

494
00:30:31,400 --> 00:30:32,360
Speaker 4: Do you know who he is?

495
00:30:32,440 --> 00:30:32,960
Speaker 2: Not a clue?

496
00:30:33,600 --> 00:30:35,720
Speaker 7: When we step out from the old to the new,

497
00:30:36,520 --> 00:30:37,640
Speaker 7: when an age.

498
00:30:38,360 --> 00:30:41,040
Speaker 2: Oh no, not at all, Okay, not at all.

499
00:30:41,360 --> 00:30:45,200
Speaker 4: No, In fact, that's kind of the point got ends,

500
00:30:45,240 --> 00:30:45,720
Speaker 4: And when.

501
00:30:45,520 --> 00:30:50,400
Speaker 7: The soul of a nation long suppressed finds utterance. Tonight

502
00:30:50,520 --> 00:30:52,960
Speaker 7: we have stepped out from the old into the new.

503
00:30:56,960 --> 00:30:57,600
Speaker 2: So let us.

504
00:30:57,560 --> 00:31:02,920
Speaker 7: Speak now with clarity and conviction that cannot be misunderstood about.

505
00:31:04,480 --> 00:31:05,560
Speaker 4: By quoting Nehru.

506
00:31:05,760 --> 00:31:11,160
Speaker 7: Okay, this new age will deliver, and for whom this

507
00:31:11,200 --> 00:31:14,800
Speaker 7: will be an age or New Yorkers expect from their leaders,

508
00:31:14,800 --> 00:31:18,000
Speaker 7: a bold vision of what we will achieve, rather than

509
00:31:18,000 --> 00:31:20,760
Speaker 7: a list of excuses for what we are too timid

510
00:31:20,800 --> 00:31:21,280
Speaker 7: to attack.

511
00:31:21,560 --> 00:31:25,520
Speaker 4: Oh yes, and just as a reminder.

512
00:31:25,840 --> 00:31:29,680
Speaker 7: Standing before you, I think of the words of Juwal

513
00:31:29,760 --> 00:31:30,720
Speaker 7: La Nehru.

514
00:31:31,840 --> 00:31:35,760
Speaker 3: Jamal la la la la Nehru and what exactly did

515
00:31:35,800 --> 00:31:42,640
Speaker 3: Jula Nehru stand for and or do He didn't quote Washington,

516
00:31:43,320 --> 00:31:49,520
Speaker 3: Jefferson Lincoln huntin picking, didn't you know, quote his fellow

517
00:31:49,600 --> 00:31:55,560
Speaker 3: traveler and fellow communists Bill de Blasio. No jalal ala Nehru,

518
00:31:57,120 --> 00:32:00,560
Speaker 3: the socialists that crushed the Hindus and the power the

519
00:32:00,640 --> 00:32:01,240
Speaker 3: ge hobbies.

520
00:32:02,080 --> 00:32:02,880
Speaker 4: I'll explain that

521
00:32:07,840 --> 00:32:07,880
Speaker 5: H