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Speaker 1: Station Tuesday, It's time for the Daniel Davis Deep Dive

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Speaker 1: this week chapter two. We had a special edition with

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Speaker 1: him yesterday given the situation of Venezuela, and of course

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Speaker 1: we weren't able to unpackage all that. Daniel Davis, retired

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Speaker 1: Lieutenant colonel, has his own podcast. You can find them

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Speaker 1: wherever you get your podcasts, and I recommend you do that.

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Speaker 1: Daniel Davis Deep Dive, Welcome back, my friend. Always a

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Speaker 1: pleasure talking with you.

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Speaker 2: I joy to be here. Thanks for giving me back

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Speaker 2: a second day in a week. It's pretty awesome.

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Speaker 1: Well, we could talk every single day and still not

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Speaker 1: be able to unpackage all this nine sense. I mean,

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Speaker 1: let's face it, and we might get to it. There

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Speaker 1: is still a war between Russia and Ukraine going on

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Speaker 1: out there, but it's been overshadowed, of course, by the

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Speaker 1: military action in Venezuela. And again I got to salute

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Speaker 1: the American military. Come down wherever you want on the

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Speaker 1: exercise it's validity or anything, damn it. Our soldiers did

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Speaker 1: a hell of a good job, a well oiled machine

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Speaker 1: operation that was, and not a single loss of American

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Speaker 1: life except a lot of Cubans apparently went down in

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Speaker 1: that one thirty two has been the reported number. And

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Speaker 1: real quick on just on that point, Daniel Davis, Why

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Speaker 1: was Maduro being surrounded by Cuban protectors and armed personnel

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Speaker 1: when he's got his own army, navy, and air force,

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Speaker 1: apparently all commanded by Interior Minister Diesato Cabello and Defense

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Speaker 1: Minister Vladimir Padrino, who are still issues in this whole

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Speaker 1: equation as we move forward. Didn't he have his own people?

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Speaker 1: What's with the Cubans?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, he did. I think that part of the reason

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Speaker 2: for that is to kind of rotate people around as

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Speaker 2: an additional means of security, so that you tried to

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Speaker 2: avoid what apparently did happen, which is somebody on the

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Speaker 2: inside turning against you, and so you had somebody that

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Speaker 2: you think is definitely loyal from the outside because Cuba

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Speaker 2: literally relies for their economic life on Cuban oil or

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Speaker 2: on Venezuelan oil, and I think the idea was, I'm

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Speaker 2: gonna have somebody from the outside who can we can

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Speaker 2: keep a closer eye on. They don't have connections with anybody,

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Speaker 2: They're not going to conspire with anybody on the ground,

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Speaker 2: and that going to keep me safe, and you know

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Speaker 2: that's certainly not the way it turned out. I mean,

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Speaker 2: they didn't go they didn't go down passively. They did

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Speaker 2: die fighting, but uh, yeah, it turned out to be.

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Speaker 1: Not enough, not quiet enough. Now as we move forward

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Speaker 1: here that it's a big open question about what's gonna

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Speaker 1: happen next. Now I mentioned the two military guys, the

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Speaker 1: Cabello and Padrino, who are really I guess, diehard Chavista types,

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Speaker 1: the military types. And but you also have the current

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Speaker 1: acting president and Vice President, Delasia Rodriguez. She seems to

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Speaker 1: be kind of playing it, not neutral, sitting on the fence,

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Speaker 1: but she hasn't embraced the idea of working with Donald

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Speaker 1: Trump going forward. But she hasn't outright rejected it and

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Speaker 1: say no, no, we're going to fight to the finish.

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Speaker 1: They're still trying to figure out the hand that they've

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Speaker 1: been dealt and what they're going to do going forward.

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Speaker 1: Because I know that Cabello and Padrino both have criminal

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Speaker 1: indictments against them as well, So it's conceivable anyway that

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Speaker 1: another military operation could go in and cut off the

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Speaker 1: heads of the what what what is of the military there.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, that that's the implication that's the threat actually that hey,

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Speaker 2: we can come back at any time, but I'll just

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Speaker 2: tell you we can't. Uh that that card has been played.

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Speaker 2: There's no you'll you'll never have another opportunity to go

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Speaker 2: in like this with the surprise uh and have that success,

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Speaker 2: because now then they're aware of how this would work,

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Speaker 2: what the what the process is, where the dangers are,

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Speaker 2: and now then they'll be ready. Even even though they

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Speaker 2: were caught with their pants down here. Uh, it won't

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Speaker 2: happen twice. And if anybody thinks that we can just

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Speaker 2: go in with another clean snatch and grab, uh, it's

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Speaker 2: just not how it works in the real world. Uh.

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Speaker 2: The other thing that's that for for Rodriguez especially is

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Speaker 2: like I said, that there's pretty strong evidence that there

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Speaker 2: was some sort of inside uh double agent top cooperation,

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Speaker 2: which is one of the reasons why we were able

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Speaker 2: to get in so easily to the inner sanctum of

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Speaker 2: Maduro himself. And whether that person has been identified, whether

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Speaker 2: that's somebody who left with the with the with the helicopters,

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Speaker 2: or whether they're still on the ground somewhere, there's got

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Speaker 2: to be a fear inside of the power hierarchy. Who

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Speaker 2: else is a double agent, so they got to be

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Speaker 2: real careful right now. They're trying to figure out who

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Speaker 2: they can or can't trust, and it wouldn't surprise me

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Speaker 2: if there was a purge going on anyone's who's even suspected.

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Speaker 2: So they got to get their house clean inside first

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Speaker 2: before they can feel confident. But she is in a

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Speaker 2: tough position, Rodriguez, because she can't just start bowing to

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Speaker 2: Trump because all of a sudden she's going to fund

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Speaker 2: resistance within her own country because they're going to say,

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Speaker 2: you know, don't just hand the keys over. But she

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Speaker 2: obviously can't go too far with Trump because whether there's

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Speaker 2: another snatching grab or just missiles or something. She realizes

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Speaker 2: that she is indeed to risk, so she's trying to

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Speaker 2: trying to find that happy medium.

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Speaker 1: Now is that risk the consequence of the corrupt I

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Speaker 1: would say the people benefiting from the Maduro regimer who

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Speaker 1: had been benefiting from it die hard. Potentially Chavistas that

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Speaker 1: are still there, because I get the impression, and I

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Speaker 1: just literally talk with a guy who works for Breitbart

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Speaker 1: who lived in a scape from Venezuela, Caleb Cruz, a

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Speaker 1: real nice guy. The will of the people although they

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Speaker 1: can't go out in the streets and rejoice for fear

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Speaker 1: that they're going to be rounded up and disappeared, which

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Speaker 1: is typical there. But they're pretty darn happy that Manduro

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Speaker 1: isn't there anymore. Their lives are terrible in Venezuela. So

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Speaker 1: if the people generally support a transition to a preach

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Speaker 1: of easta better economy where they're making money and they

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Speaker 1: have opportunity, isn't she on safer ground going that direction?

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Speaker 1: Or is this what I would characterize and correct me

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Speaker 1: if I'm wrong, sir. Smaller minority of loyalists or well

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Speaker 1: connected people that big of a threat to her that

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Speaker 1: she wouldn't bother doing that, even if it's the will

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Speaker 1: of the people.

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Speaker 2: Well, you know, I talked to a friend of mine

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Speaker 2: here in Washington that has family still in Caracas, and

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Speaker 2: he was telling me that his reports from the ground

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Speaker 2: there are similar to what your friend said. That everybody's

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Speaker 2: still kind of uncertain and afraid. They don't know what

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Speaker 2: to think, and they don't even know what to believe.

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Speaker 2: In any case, they do know that the all of

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Speaker 2: the power structures of the Maduro regime are in place.

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Speaker 2: The only thing that we got taken out was the head.

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Speaker 2: But the head is only the head of a system,

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Speaker 2: and all the system is still fully in place, So

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Speaker 2: they don't have freedom suddenly that they didn't have before

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Speaker 2: Maduro was pulled out. And I think they're aware of that, uh,

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Speaker 2: but they also know, you know, what are you gonna do?

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Speaker 2: You're gonna have a you know, some kind of an uprising. Well,

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Speaker 2: the same reason they didn't have an uprising under Maduro

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Speaker 2: is still the same thing in place here. So there's

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Speaker 2: no freedom in Venezuela. There's nothing has been changed on

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Speaker 2: the system level. So right now everybody's waiting to find

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Speaker 2: out what's going to happen. And listen, we also have

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Speaker 2: to recognize that all of the hardships on Venezuela is

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Speaker 2: not just because of this management, though that's a big

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Speaker 2: part of it, or their corruption, but because of these

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Speaker 2: crippling sanctions we've had on them for a long time.

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Speaker 2: So it's that it's some of the people in Venezuela

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Speaker 2: are not real happy about even what we've been doing

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Speaker 2: because they recognize that some of this is being imposed

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Speaker 2: on them from the outside, and still they don't really

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Speaker 2: Truy's just that they're going to like rise up and

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Speaker 2: think that we're gonna come and support them because it

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Speaker 2: could cost them their lives.

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Speaker 1: That I get. But since the system, as you describe

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Speaker 1: it is still in place. The head may have been

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Speaker 1: cut off, but the system is still there. We just

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Speaker 1: briefly touched on the global realities. We got Iran, China, Russia,

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Speaker 1: and then of course Cuba, which seems like it's on

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Speaker 1: his last legs, all inextrictedly entertrined on some level with

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Speaker 1: Venezuela just because Maduro's gone. Their foot in the door

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Speaker 1: and the relationship with that with Venezuela generally that hasn't

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Speaker 1: disappeared at least as far as China, Russia, and I

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Speaker 1: understand Iran had drone manufacturing facilities in Venezuela as well.

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Speaker 1: Those relationships remain. Are they on you know, thin ice?

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Speaker 1: Where are we with them?

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Speaker 2: That's what everybody's trying to find out. I'm talking about Beijing, Moscow,

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Speaker 2: we got Caracas. Everybody's trying to figure out what does

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Speaker 2: all this going to mean? And no one knows yet

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Speaker 2: because Venezuela doesn't know. Because the United States we kind

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Speaker 2: of opened up this can of worms. We don't even know,

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Speaker 2: we don't know for sure what we're gonna do, what

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Speaker 2: we're gonna have next, because I think that there are

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Speaker 2: people in Washington that are fully aware that this snatch

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Speaker 2: and grab was this huge military operation but had one

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Speaker 2: solitary objective which they went in, they got out and

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Speaker 2: came out relatively unscathed. But anything further than that and

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Speaker 2: you can get yourself into a real problem, you know,

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Speaker 2: So we don't want to go in real big I

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Speaker 2: think we want to pretend like we can and threaten

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Speaker 2: that we will. But I don't think there's a big

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Speaker 2: appetite for getting into a war that we might just

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Speaker 2: start an open ended situation that you can't succeed in.

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Speaker 2: They could be real ugly. And then you know, look,

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Speaker 2: China has I think it's like eighty billion dollars of

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Speaker 2: loans and other kinds of security things that they have

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Speaker 2: given to Venezuela that they need to be repaid. So

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Speaker 2: they're going to be working hard to make sure their

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Speaker 2: interest are not sacrificed. Russia has less leverage, but they

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Speaker 2: certainly are the same interest. And then you haven't even

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Speaker 2: talked about what about Columbia? Are they next? You know,

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Speaker 2: what about Mexico. There's threatens there Greenland for crying out loud.

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Speaker 2: I mean, that'sarently on the hit list too, apparently coming

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Speaker 2: up within twenty days. We don't know for sure what

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Speaker 2: Trump meant by that, but that's apparently going to be

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Speaker 2: on the table too. So there is a lot of

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Speaker 2: moving pieces here at the same time.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm completely perplexed by the whole Greenland obsession. Honestly, sir,

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Speaker 1: maybe the greatest piece of real estate in the world,

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Speaker 1: but what right does the United States have to it?

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Speaker 1: I keep waiting for that question to be answered. Anyhow,

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Speaker 1: there aren't any drug boats coming out of Greenland as

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Speaker 1: far as you know. Are there are there, Daniel, if

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Speaker 1: I haven't missed anything.

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Speaker 2: Fishing boats up there, And one wonders if fishing boats

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Speaker 2: are going to suddenly be a problem. I don't know.

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Speaker 1: Well, it doesn't appear as that we're going to have

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Speaker 1: to engage in another failed military exercise like the Bay

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Speaker 1: of Pigs. Cuba looks like it's on its last legs.

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Speaker 1: I mean, economically, they were already devastated with the oil

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Speaker 1: embargos and the sanctions. I know they were getting some

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Speaker 1: Gratus oil from Venezuela which a lot of which they

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Speaker 1: were able to sell off in order to help their

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Speaker 1: own economy or help themselves and line their pockets the

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Speaker 1: authorities in Cuba. But where do you see Cuba going

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Speaker 1: if we completely cut off their ability to get any

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Speaker 1: energy whatsoever?

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Speaker 2: You know, I'll tell you this is what perplexes me

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Speaker 2: even more than the Greenland issues. Real why this avut

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Speaker 2: right obsession with destroying Cuba. I've been to Cuba and

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Speaker 2: I can tell you just about seven eight years ago

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Speaker 2: with a church group that went in there to help

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Speaker 2: some of the local churches. And they are so poor

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Speaker 2: they can barely even feed themselves. They're a threat to

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Speaker 2: literally no one. They can They're lucky to keep the

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Speaker 2: lights on and some food in grocery stores. So you had,

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Speaker 2: let's see coach the other day, a former director of

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Speaker 2: Nashville or a deputy national security advisor say that they

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Speaker 2: are a big threat to us and now we got

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Speaker 2: to go get them. And I'm just like puzzled, what

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Speaker 2: are you talking about? There is no threat, and yet

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Speaker 2: you heard Marco Rubio is just almost gleeful with the

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Speaker 2: idea of destroying Cuba. There there's nothing that we need

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Speaker 2: to worry about why we want to harm them because

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Speaker 2: they don't pose a threat to us. I don't understand

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Speaker 2: the obsession.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I get I think a lot of people remember

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Speaker 1: the Cuban missile crisis. Russia actually had military installations ere

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Speaker 1: they did have nukees ninety miles away. But you know,

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Speaker 1: in a world of hypersonic missiles that can travel halfway

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Speaker 1: around the globe a matter of seconds, the geography of

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Speaker 1: the location of missiles isn't quite as important as it

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Speaker 1: used to be.

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Speaker 2: And plus that was, you know whatever, almost three quarters

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Speaker 2: of a century ago.

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Speaker 1: I mean, I know, I know that just anymore.

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Speaker 2: So there's literally nothing there that would cause us as

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Speaker 2: a state objective the destruction of Cuba. And to me,

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Speaker 2: it just doesn't look good globally that we have this

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Speaker 2: big power to the United States that is claiming they're

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Speaker 2: afraid of this tiny little island that can barely keep

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Speaker 2: the lights on and we're going to crush them. I mean,

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Speaker 2: that looks like the classic bully and I don't think

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Speaker 2: that's going to help our interests worldwide if we carry

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Speaker 2: through with that.

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Speaker 1: Maybe it's our interest in bringing the casinos back in

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Speaker 1: a vacation destination. You could be right.

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Speaker 2: I hope that you're not, because that would be pretty uh,

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Speaker 2: pretty callous to destroy a government just so that we

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Speaker 2: can get somebody to go in there and make some

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Speaker 2: money on it. But justin you can't eliminate that.

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Speaker 1: Justin effort at levity, sir, that's all that was now really.

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Speaker 2: It might not be levity. That's the probably.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, all good comedy. There is some grain of truth

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Speaker 1: built into it, and real quick, anything that's really pronounced

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Speaker 1: me in since were almost at a time between the

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Speaker 1: Russian and Ukraine situation, where are we on that one?

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Speaker 1: Are we still the status quo that we typically end

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Speaker 1: off this?

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Speaker 2: Uh? Tomorrow is Orthodox Christmas on the seventh of January,

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Speaker 2: so things are kind of paused a little bit on

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Speaker 2: the on the front. There's still some activity going on,

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Speaker 2: uh but but it's kind of low level. But there's

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Speaker 2: a meeting in Paris today where Witkoff and Jared Kushner

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Speaker 2: and the UN Ambassador with Whittaker are there. I'm sorry,

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Speaker 2: you know, Witcock Whittaker are there to try and work

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Speaker 2: on with Zelensky who just showed up a minute ago

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Speaker 2: with Macron. They're trying to find nail down security guarantees

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Speaker 2: for Ukraine. Whitaker said on Fox News this morning that

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Speaker 2: he thinks they're really close. I heard that before. I

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Speaker 2: doubt that that's going to be the case, or at

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Speaker 2: least close to what is the question, But at least

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Speaker 2: some diplomatic activities are going on. I would look for

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Speaker 2: kind of a lull in things until sometime after the seventh,

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Speaker 2: and then things could heat back up pretty quick.

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Speaker 1: I hear security guarantees, I think of boots on the

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Speaker 1: ground from major several different major countries, including the United States,

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Speaker 1: is that maybe where we're going on that.

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Speaker 2: That's what they want. I don't think they're going to

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Speaker 2: get the American boots on the ground, but apparently Zelenski's

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Speaker 2: really trying hard to get French and British boots on

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Speaker 2: the ground, and for some reason they're interested in talking

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Speaker 2: about that. I don't know why they would want to

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Speaker 2: do it. Russia has categorically and consistently said any boots

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Speaker 2: that come on the ground from any NATO force immediately

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Speaker 2: become legitimate targets, and I think they mean.

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Speaker 1: It, okay, fair enough. I don't want to make fun

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Speaker 1: of the French army. It's too easy. Daniel Davis Deep

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Speaker 1: Dive the podcast Livity where you get your podcast. I

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Speaker 1: always enjoy our conversation, sir, and we'll look forward another

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Speaker 1: edition to this next Tuesday. You have a great week,

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Speaker 1: my friend, and happy New Year again.

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Speaker 2: Same to you and thanks and I'll see you next week.

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Speaker 1: And podcast my conversation with Daniel from yesterday at fifty

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Speaker 1: five KRC dot com along with this one which you

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Speaker 1: can find a little bit later in the morning eight

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Speaker 1: forty three. Right now, stick around.

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Speaker 2: This is fifty five KRC, an iHeartRadio station. This is

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Speaker 2: Jim