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Speaker 1: Do want to be an American Scott's slum Show.

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Speaker 2: This is seven hundred w go out every course the

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Speaker 2: big story State of Union last night. Trump covered a

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Speaker 2: lot in his record one hundred and eight minute State

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Speaker 2: of the Union address last night. We had gold medalists,

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Speaker 2: we had military heroes, We had these emotional moments to

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Speaker 2: argue his first year back in the White House has

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Speaker 2: been a triumph. So two thirds of people who watched

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Speaker 2: that last night all are in part it resonated with them,

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Speaker 2: seemed to be acted positively about a little more than

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Speaker 2: the third said it was fantastic. At the same time,

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Speaker 2: this had odds with other polls prior to the State

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Speaker 2: of the Union that show him underwater, like six and

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Speaker 2: ten voters disapprove of how the President is handling things.

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Speaker 2: So it's not about them, it's about you. How much

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Speaker 2: of the State of the Union messaging are you buying?

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Speaker 2: It's a simple question. Joining the show this morning to

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Speaker 2: discuss and how this hit is our buddy Kevin Burton,

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Speaker 2: Kevin of course with Crosstown consulting political strategist and pollster.

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Speaker 3: And welcome, thanks for having me Scott.

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Speaker 2: All right, so we all know if you've seen a

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Speaker 2: State of the Union. You've seen one, You've seen them

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Speaker 2: all usually and it's it's a lot of theater, it's

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Speaker 2: a lot of pomp and circumstance. It's also a lot

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Speaker 2: of infomercial But this one, because of that thic, you know,

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Speaker 2: two thirds of people said, yeah, it was a pretty

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Speaker 2: good message, was awesome. And then you look at the

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Speaker 2: polling numbers and if you believe these things. But that's

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Speaker 2: the only yardstick we have to measure this at this point,

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Speaker 2: other than when we go to the polls is six

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Speaker 2: and ten Americans think well, we're heading the wrong direction.

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Speaker 1: He's not doing a good job.

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Speaker 2: So I look at this, the question was in your

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Speaker 2: opinion as a polster and someone who's at political analyst,

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Speaker 2: did he hit on the points he needed to hit

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Speaker 2: on last night?

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Speaker 3: So what he did really well was he wanted to

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Speaker 3: just keep making sure and the one thing that Trump

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Speaker 3: is so good at and DEM's have never been able

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Speaker 3: to figure this out, is he the master of kind

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Speaker 3: of I don't want to say manipulation, but just controlling

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Speaker 3: the narrative. So he did a really good job in that.

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Speaker 3: But at the end of the day, you know, it's

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Speaker 3: a dog and pony show. It is every state of

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Speaker 3: the Union. I don't care who it is. Ye, So

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Speaker 3: I think it's going to be more temporary that you know,

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Speaker 3: people are gonna say, oh yeah, this looks good. Affordability

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Speaker 3: We heard that a lot last night. Affordability is going

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Speaker 3: to continuing to be the number one issue. The one

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Speaker 3: thing that Trump's doing is very similar to what Biden

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Speaker 3: did is keep reiterating the stock market in four oh

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Speaker 3: one case. But there's a lot of Americans who don't

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Speaker 3: have that. So affordability is going to be the number

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Speaker 3: one issue from now till November.

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Speaker 2: But he's kind of dismissed that. During the speech, he

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Speaker 2: touched on it briefly about that. You know, he doesn't

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Speaker 2: believe it's true. It's a it's a fabricated word, that affordability.

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Speaker 2: No one's talking about affordability. Affordability. The way I kind

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Speaker 2: of frame that is, it depends where you are. If

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Speaker 2: you're someone who has means, if you have money because

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Speaker 2: of your hard work, your effort, or for whatever reason.

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Speaker 2: You know the price of beef going up, for example,

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Speaker 2: that's thing we all identify with, Like it doesn't affect

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Speaker 2: you as much as it could be. Two dollars a

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Speaker 2: pound and could be ten dollars a pund Okay, so

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Speaker 2: what But of course then there's a working folk too,

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Speaker 2: where you know, they're they're pinching pennies, cutting coupons and

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Speaker 2: trying to save and maybe forgoing that as well. Just

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Speaker 2: it depends on who's receiving the message exactly. It's just

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Speaker 2: like gas prices.

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Speaker 3: For some people, it's like okay, so instead of you know,

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Speaker 3: going out to dinner tonight, you know, Jeff Ruby's you

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Speaker 3: go to outback. But remember the folks who propelled him

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Speaker 3: to this victory were people who it was all about

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Speaker 3: the economy, especially in those rough belt states. So you're

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Speaker 3: seeing that their poll numbers are showing that there is

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Speaker 3: a concern of economic disapproval up until last night. So

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Speaker 3: now you got to see do they carry this momentum

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Speaker 3: for the next you know, six months or was this

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Speaker 3: a flash in the pan. Like I said, Trump, the

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Speaker 3: one thing Trump does better than probably any politicians ever

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Speaker 3: is controlling the narrative.

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Speaker 1: It was a performance.

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Speaker 3: It was the ultimate reality show last night, and he

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Speaker 3: just and the problem is Trump is just Trump. There's

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Speaker 3: no one else besides him who can do that. Correct

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Speaker 3: so you know, the State of the Union is a

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Speaker 3: long ways away, so it was gonna be interesting to see.

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Speaker 3: You know. I think one of the high moments, if

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Speaker 3: we want to talk about that, was when he talked

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Speaker 3: about the insider trading, and even Democrats clapped, and it

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Speaker 3: was a good clap back about Nancy Pelosi. I think

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Speaker 3: we can all agree that we don't want our congress

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Speaker 3: people insider trading.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, he had some good shots, and you expect, I mean,

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Speaker 2: most State of the unions are kind of boring by design.

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Speaker 2: It's more about the pomp than what's actually happening. More

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Speaker 2: you know, more fluffing. But you know, you're kind of

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Speaker 2: waiting for Trump zingers to come out, and he came

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Speaker 2: out with a few good ones. I thought the Nancy

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Speaker 2: Pelosi thing was fantastic myself, but you know, it's an

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Speaker 2: economy versus kitchen table ishes we talked about, and I think,

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Speaker 2: you know, you look at the poll numbers to suggested

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Speaker 2: that he's underwater, but two thirds of people watch this,

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Speaker 2: and thirty sixs that people watch it for that matter,

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Speaker 2: thought it was the greatest speech ever.

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Speaker 1: Two thirds said yeah it was. It was pretty positive.

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Speaker 2: Does that actually translate though to turning his numbers around

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Speaker 2: in the long term.

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Speaker 3: Well, but sir, the thirty six percent is his approval

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Speaker 3: rating is roughly, you know, give or take about thirty

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Speaker 3: eight forty percent, So.

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Speaker 1: That's right in line. Yeah.

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Speaker 3: The one thing that Trump said that he knew better

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Speaker 3: than anyone. I guess it's twelve years ago, is he

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Speaker 3: knew his supporters when he said I could shoot someone

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Speaker 3: on Fifth Avenue, and that was like, he knows his

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Speaker 3: base one hundred percent. The other forty percent are Democrats.

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Speaker 3: No matter what he does, it's they're not going to

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Speaker 3: support him. So at the end of the day, it's

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Speaker 3: all about those independence FiOS on the middle. And that's

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Speaker 3: and you know, it's that ten to fifteen percent in

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Speaker 3: every election that sways the pendulum, you know, and that's

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Speaker 3: who both sides are going to be targeting. You know.

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Speaker 1: There was one interesting.

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Speaker 3: Thing that I thought about the economy is that one

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Speaker 3: third blames Trump, one third lanes didn't, and one third

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Speaker 3: doesn't trust either. I think that's a pretty good representation

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Speaker 3: of American.

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Speaker 1: That's about right.

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Speaker 2: It's so just so fractious, and it's evenly divided, and

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Speaker 2: that's why that's why it feels the way it does today.

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Speaker 1: I think too. Presents often do this.

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Speaker 2: You know, somebody will go in fact check and I'll look

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Speaker 2: at some of the fact checks and there are multiple

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Speaker 2: claims in the speech that you know, gas prices, job numbers,

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Speaker 2: drug numbers, tariffs, the economy of the tariffs, and in

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Speaker 2: your experience of the fact checks, move numbers or uh,

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Speaker 2: does it resonate.

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Speaker 1: With with people that that that's factually an accurate No.

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Speaker 3: I mean every every president in our lifetime has promised

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Speaker 3: the moon, you know, or going to Mars in the

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Speaker 3: state of the Union. In reality, it's a you know,

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Speaker 3: it's a flash in the pan and then the numbers

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Speaker 3: come back down. Yeah, I mean, I mean people kind

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Speaker 3: of it. You know, the state of the Union is

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Speaker 3: what you want to happen. But there's also the reality

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Speaker 3: of breadlock and watching them.

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Speaker 2: And with the fact midterms are fast approaching, and we

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Speaker 2: know how midterms are for the incumbent.

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Speaker 1: It's not good.

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Speaker 2: And you know another thing that Trump's does better than

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Speaker 2: anybody else is the stagecraft. Right, So yeah, the hockey team,

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Speaker 2: you had the Venezuelan political prisoner reunion handing out medals

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Speaker 2: of honor. Right, Metal monitor guys, and we're giving, we're

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Speaker 2: decorating soldiers and first responders. And he's always been a

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Speaker 2: master of the made for TV moment.

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Speaker 1: Does does that translate?

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Speaker 2: How much of that translates to compensate for those pulling numbers?

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Speaker 2: And did it land with audiences outside the chamber? I

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Speaker 2: think it did.

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Speaker 3: I mean that's why he's president. You know, it literally

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Speaker 3: looked like a Netflix made for documentary, like a you know,

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Speaker 3: a show about a state of a union. The one

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Speaker 3: thing that Trump understands better than anyone is marketing. He

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Speaker 3: gets how to craft the message and craft the appearance

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Speaker 3: because I mean, he was on TV for thirty years.

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Speaker 3: In reality he was the first real reality TV star

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Speaker 3: America had, and so he understands optics better than anyone. Now,

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Speaker 3: the question is, it's a long ways away the election,

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Speaker 3: and you're not going to have another really chance like

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Speaker 3: this to get as many viewers on so that they have,

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Speaker 3: you know, seven eight months to kind of craft their message,

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Speaker 3: which you know they're going with the economies high, the

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Speaker 3: four one ks are good, but it all goes back

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Speaker 3: to it's kind of like when you're doing a primary vote.

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Speaker 3: If people's lives are good generally speaking, they don't turn

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Speaker 3: out for primaries. It's the people who are the most

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Speaker 3: effective and who are passionate who will get out and vote.

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Speaker 3: So like, if you work at fidelity in life's good

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Speaker 3: and I don't. If you know you're middle of the

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Speaker 3: road on either side, you're probably not going to vote

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Speaker 3: in the primary. But if you know you're worried about

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Speaker 3: milk prices, you're going to get out and vote because

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Speaker 3: it's really affecting you.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, Or tax implications like that they're going to crack

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Speaker 2: a Democrat's going to destroy them with tech.

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Speaker 1: You're gonna get out of the vote. It's going to

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Speaker 1: motivate you.

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Speaker 2: In that context, though, Kevin, midterm framing this is from

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Speaker 2: the midterm elections coming up.

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Speaker 1: As I mentioned.

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Speaker 2: In your read of last night, was the primary target

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Speaker 2: audience swing voters who might be persuadable. Was it the

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Speaker 2: Republican base and he's energizing or Democrats that Trump's he

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Speaker 2: wants to put on the defensive, because I don't think

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Speaker 2: you can do all of that. You can do maybe

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Speaker 2: two of them, but probably one of those, which one

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Speaker 2: I think it's all about his base. You know, we

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Speaker 2: saw last November when he is not on the ballot.

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Speaker 2: It's not the same. And Trump in his base, he

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Speaker 2: can connect to that like no one else can.

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Speaker 3: You know, for Republicans, it's simply just turning out their voters,

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Speaker 3: because if they turn out their voters at the bare minimum,

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Speaker 3: you know, it's probably very close to what it is

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Speaker 3: right now. You know, maybe a three three feet difference

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Speaker 3: in the House on either side, and then maybe a

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Speaker 3: one or two different seat in the Senate if they

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Speaker 3: can really turn out their base.

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Speaker 2: Gotcha, he is Kevin Burton, Crosstime Consulting in Kentucky nor

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Speaker 2: the Kentucky Political Strategy and pollster breaking down the state

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Speaker 2: of the Union last night and what all this means

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Speaker 2: put in context, if it moves the needle, and you know,

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Speaker 2: there's a stand up moment where Trump and and keep

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Speaker 2: in mind too, you know, immigration is Trump's well, was

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Speaker 2: Trump's strongest suit. He's kind of slipped on that, but

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Speaker 2: he asked legislators to stand if they believe in the

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Speaker 2: government's first duties to protect citizens, not illegal aliens. And

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Speaker 2: the Democrats who stayed seated, quite a few of them

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Speaker 2: became an instant Republican ad was that was a trap

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Speaker 2: that was strategically set, it wasn't really organic.

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Speaker 1: How effective is that move?

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Speaker 3: And I'd say you go to setting traps because you know,

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Speaker 3: was that last year where you know, it was all

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Speaker 3: very very heated State of the Union. He just knows

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Speaker 3: how to set traps for the Democrats. And you know

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Speaker 3: this has been twelve years, twelve you know, twelve years

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Speaker 3: Democrats have not been able to figure him out. That

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Speaker 3: they just can't that there's no way of him. You know,

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Speaker 3: they just can't understand them. It's almost like trying to

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Speaker 3: descend Lebron James. You can game plan for it, but

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Speaker 3: when you get punched in the mouth, they they queasy,

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Speaker 3: they don't know.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, they don't know what they're doing right exactly.

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Speaker 3: And you know the thing about Trump though, is is

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Speaker 3: that his highs are super high, but his lows are

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Speaker 3: super low. So if you're the Democrats, you're just waiting

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Speaker 3: this out. Let's say he won last night, you got

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Speaker 3: nine months, eight months to the general election, and you

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Speaker 3: know you're really counting on those ten to fifteen percent

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Speaker 3: with the people who really feel the affordability is right.

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Speaker 3: And that's what I think both sides are going to

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Speaker 3: be talking about the economy.

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Speaker 2: It does it help or hurt him when he says, well,

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Speaker 2: it's it's fabricated. The affordability crisis, there's no such thing. Basically,

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Speaker 2: that's kind of you in a nutshell what he said,

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Speaker 2: the people buy That depends that he can turn out.

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Speaker 2: It depends if he can turn out as base.

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Speaker 3: I mean, you know, they their team crafted the perfect

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Speaker 3: political strategy of basically, if we get eighty ninety percent

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Speaker 3: of our people, it doesn't matter what the Democrats do.

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Speaker 3: That's how they've won two presidential elections.

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Speaker 2: So they're banking on that, and the parties are so

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Speaker 2: far apart ideology from an ideological standpoint that you know,

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Speaker 2: you look at Okay, well even if you go, well,

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Speaker 2: I don't think tru it's the tariffs, it's not working,

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Speaker 2: and there's an affordable crisis. But then you turn towards

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Speaker 2: the Democrats and I look at people like Elizabeth Warren

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Speaker 2: and Bernie Sanders and AOC and go, well, their ideas

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Speaker 2: are going to be far worse. I guess I got

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Speaker 2: to stick with this guy. Is that the reality?

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Speaker 3: And that's the thing where you know they have Democrats

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Speaker 3: have not been able to find a message to stick

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Speaker 3: on Donald Trump.

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Speaker 1: They just haven't in a lot of ways.

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Speaker 3: It's similar to when Obama was in office, Republicans couldn't

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Speaker 3: figure out a message to get him to lose an election.

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Speaker 3: And that's why they're both presidents. They understand the whims

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Speaker 3: of the general public. So you know for the Democrats

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Speaker 3: that they've been trying for years to try to craft

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Speaker 3: the perfect message against Donald Trump. But the problem is

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Speaker 3: he spent thirty He sent his whole adult life in

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Speaker 3: front of the camera, so he understands entertainment, he understands narrative,

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Speaker 3: he understands how to craft a message, and it's something

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Speaker 3: that you know, a DC consultant can't craft when you're

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Speaker 3: when a camera is in front of you. You have

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Speaker 3: to be able to spend it. In a lot of

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Speaker 3: politicians camp.

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Speaker 1: There's a lot of hackling. We saw el Green with

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Speaker 1: his sign. He got pulled.

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Speaker 2: A play shouted corrupt president, and he responded by saying,

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Speaker 2: these people are crazy, which is kind of laugh out loud.

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Speaker 2: Does that out does that dry to outrage helped Trump

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Speaker 2: or heard him? Is there a version where the party

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Speaker 2: they didn't learn from last the mistakes they did last time,

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Speaker 2: because that kind of backfired on.

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Speaker 1: Them last time.

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Speaker 3: Yes, and though I mean, you know it's so far

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Speaker 3: her away, but it did backfire on him last time.

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Speaker 1: But you know, we got nine months.

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Speaker 3: I would I wouldn't read too much into that, you know,

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Speaker 3: I think it's all gonna come down to the economy

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Speaker 3: and the terriffs on.

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Speaker 1: The teriff thing.

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Speaker 2: The Supreme Court struck that down just a few days

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Speaker 2: before the speech last night. He called it an unfortunate ruling.

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Speaker 2: He said, we're going to keep it going through alternative means,

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Speaker 2: and experts are saying, yeah, you're probably not gonna be

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Speaker 2: able to do that either. Those will also be struck

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Speaker 2: out as illegal. To someone who's watching at home worried

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Speaker 2: about the price is that land? Or did it look

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Speaker 2: like he was kind of back on the seals little

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Speaker 2: bit scrambling, because yeah, I guess the way to look

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Speaker 2: at it is you look at the president, you look

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Speaker 2: at the Supreme Court.

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Speaker 1: Hudo Americans trusts more.

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Speaker 3: Well. And his disapproval of the surme Court was very measured.

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Speaker 3: It wasn't like him when he was lashing out on

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Speaker 3: the Democrats. So I don't know if you noticed that,

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Speaker 3: but it was a very measured and soft criticism of that. Yeah,

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Speaker 3: he was a lot stronger true social than he was

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Speaker 3: last night.

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Speaker 1: Yes, yes, you know.

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Speaker 3: And that's also just the changing of politics where Democrats

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Speaker 3: has been really slow to understand trolling is a part

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Speaker 3: of social media and Trump does it better than anyone.

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Speaker 3: And there's been a lot of times where he trolls,

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Speaker 3: but when push comes to shove, he'll he'll come back

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Speaker 3: to a more reasonable approach. And he's a great rage

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Speaker 3: baiter against Democrats. They just don't they just don't know

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Speaker 3: how to combat that. And the only person who kind

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Speaker 3: of did any good was Joe Biden when he was

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Speaker 3: still mentally you know, one.

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Speaker 1: Hundred percent right.

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Speaker 3: But that was a flash in the pans.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, he It was funny watching the predictable response because

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Speaker 2: because even Hickeen Jeffrey said listen, shut the hell up,

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Speaker 2: and clearly there are a number of Democrats that didn't

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Speaker 2: heed his advice.

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Speaker 1: And here we go again.

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Speaker 2: Overall, the takeaway from this, the bottom line is what

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Speaker 2: heading into the midterms here with the president's address last night.

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Speaker 3: It was a good night for the president based off

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Speaker 3: of what you know, the polls show right now, But

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Speaker 3: let's check back in two, three, weeks. Uh, you know,

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Speaker 3: the Hakeem Jeffreys point or Johnson. They have the most,

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Speaker 3: they have the worst jobs in DC. They're trying to

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Speaker 3: corral two hundred and fifteen plus politicians who are all

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Speaker 3: are trying to make a name for themselves. So I

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Speaker 3: do not envy either of those two guys.

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Speaker 2: I guess my my takeaway from the whole thing last

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Speaker 2: night was it's what I expected from the president from

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Speaker 2: Donald Trump, and he was. He was in you know,

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Speaker 2: Trump vinted Trump form as always, But I I guess

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Speaker 2: i'd rather hear him go, hey, listen, you know, admitting

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Speaker 2: that he never does this, but he'd admit, like, it's

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Speaker 2: been a rough first year. Okay, we get that, I understand.

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Speaker 2: But but here's the light at the end of the tunnel.

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Speaker 2: Here's what's happening behind the scenes. Here's what you're not

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Speaker 2: seeing yet because all this pains lagging indicator. We are

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Speaker 2: making progress. The worm is starting rather than going. It's

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Speaker 2: the greatest economy ever. Everyone's excited with the hottest country

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Speaker 2: in the world. I don't know if that lands with

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Speaker 2: a lot of people. Quite honestly, I'd rather be told, hey, look,

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Speaker 2: here's the pain part and pretty soon we're gonna have

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Speaker 2: more game that.

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Speaker 1: I can live with. I don't disagree, but it's not

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Speaker 1: his brand. Yep.

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Speaker 3: You know, Trump has never apologized for anything. So if

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Speaker 3: he started doing that, does that make him look weak

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Speaker 3: to his voters? Does that make hits? Because is that

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Speaker 3: a shift in authenticity for him? So I get why

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Speaker 3: he wouldn't say, you know, hey, the last year's been rough,

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Speaker 3: but Trump's the outlier of all presidents. Probably a lot

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Speaker 3: of other presidents would say that he dinnant and we'll see,

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Speaker 3: you know, because what you were saying about the messaging

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Speaker 3: points of the Democrats not standing. They can use all

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Speaker 3: those cuts of the greatest economy in the world. So overall,

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Speaker 3: I think it's pretty much a wash.

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Speaker 2: You know.

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Speaker 3: If you're a Democrat, you have a lot of things

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Speaker 3: that you can say I disagreed with. If you're a Republican,

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Speaker 3: there's a lot of things that you can say, he's

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Speaker 3: doing great. At the end of the day, it always

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Speaker 3: comes down to the independence of the day, really right,

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Speaker 3: and I.

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Speaker 2: Go look at it, going, Okay, what's the takeaway here?

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Speaker 2: But again, time will tell if these policies are going

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Speaker 2: to work out. It's not good for tariffs right now.

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Speaker 2: But at some point are we going to start to

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Speaker 2: see the fruits of this? And you hope, but sooner

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Speaker 2: rather than later, especially with Mittrim's come up. Joining the

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Speaker 2: show this morning on the Big One Scott Sland Show,

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Speaker 2: Kevin Burton, Pollster A North, the Kentucky's cross Town Consultant,

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Speaker 2: Thanks again for the time.

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Speaker 1: I appreciate it.

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Speaker 3: Thanks for having me, Slin.

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Speaker 2: All right, you got a buddy, We got news update

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Speaker 2: here in just minutes. Julie Balk joins the show coming

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Speaker 2: up and a very interesting story that she's going to

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Speaker 2: get into here next on the show. Some a topic

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Speaker 2: we talked about last week as a matter of fact,

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Speaker 2: with Coca Cola and discriminating against men, and it's an interesting,

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Speaker 2: interesting case that affects all of us who work for eleven.

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Speaker 2: We'll get into that just ahead here on seven hundred

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Speaker 2: WW