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Speaker 1: Station.

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Speaker 2: Hey forty fifty five, care see the talk station. Happy Monday.

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Speaker 2: Try to make it so anyway, And I guess gurdir

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Speaker 2: Lluin's for the gas pump coming up.

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Speaker 1: Thank you.

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Speaker 2: Brigham Accown from the Hudson Institute, our energy policy expert,

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Speaker 2: joined the program this morning to talk about just that

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Speaker 2: maybe a little bit more. Brigham account, Welcome back, my friends.

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Speaker 2: Great having you on this morning.

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Speaker 1: Hi Brian, thanks great to be with you.

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Speaker 2: Hudson dot Org is where you find Brigham in the

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Speaker 2: team at the Hudson Institute. I recommend you do that

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Speaker 2: all right straight at Horror Moves seems to be the bottleneck.

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Speaker 2: We got a problem there. It's effectively shut down. While

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Speaker 2: everything I've read this morning, they've been jamming the GPS

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Speaker 2: signals for the ships. They've threatened to blow them up.

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Speaker 2: They actually have attacked three of them. Fog of war's

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Speaker 2: a little difficult, but clearly with that much oil, like

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Speaker 2: twenty percent of the daily global consumption goes to that

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Speaker 2: tiny little stretch it is. And we talked about this

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Speaker 2: with Brian James a moment ago. Energy prices are going

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Speaker 2: to go up, but thankfully we ain't. In the Opek

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Speaker 2: dominant years back in the seventies. We're gonna have a

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Speaker 2: better opportunity to to keep the supply up to maybe

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Speaker 2: it won't be as bad. What's your take on this

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Speaker 2: Brigham account?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, well, Brian, you've you've you've already nailed it. I

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Speaker 1: don't even need to say anything. Uh No, in all seriousness, Yeah,

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Speaker 1: this straight over moves is not it's functionally disrupted. That

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Speaker 1: disruption is being driven by two things. Obviously the risk

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Speaker 1: of anti ship missiles and attacks uh from Iran and

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Speaker 1: its proxies. But really one of the things we're not

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Speaker 1: talking about yet you're gonna hear a lot more about

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Speaker 1: today is a lot of this is going to be

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Speaker 1: driven by the insurance markets, not navies. Yeah, I read that.

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Speaker 2: They're they're canceling the insurance policies.

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Speaker 1: Effectively, they are they are withdrawing their war risk coverage.

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Speaker 1: Think about that. You can get insurance against war for

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Speaker 1: the Persian Gulf and what that means is without the

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Speaker 1: war risk insurance, ship owners are reluctant to transit, charters

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Speaker 1: will not contract, and banks you're not going to finance

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Speaker 1: these voyages. So hundreds of tankers are either anchored or erotic. Now,

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Speaker 1: the good news for America is, as you pointed out,

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Speaker 1: we're not dependent on Middle East or Noiland longer, and

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Speaker 1: that twenty percent of world volume mainly headed to Asia. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: and the number one supplier is China. So they've got

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Speaker 1: a bigger problem than we've got right now. And you know,

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Speaker 1: we'll see how long this goes on for because as

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Speaker 1: you know, there are stockpiles in place. Most places have

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Speaker 1: thirty to forty five days supply. Short term prices are

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Speaker 1: up about ten percent today. The longer term, we'll see

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Speaker 1: how long this lasts.

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Speaker 2: Well, you know, the litigation attorney to me that did

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Speaker 2: a lot of insurance coverage litigation is quick to sort

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Speaker 2: of glom onto the Wait a second, it sounds to

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Speaker 2: me like these insurers of these ships during offering these

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Speaker 2: wartime policies maybe at a risk of a bad faith lawsuit.

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Speaker 2: It's like if my insurance company canceled my paid for

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Speaker 2: and in place fire insurance while a fire was raging

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Speaker 2: in my home. I could probably see them.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I think you could. And war risk insurance covers,

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Speaker 1: I mean, this is this is crazy stuff, right, covers,

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Speaker 1: missile tax drone attacks, mines, terrorism, this creates a market

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Speaker 1: driven choke point even without a blockade. If the insurers

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Speaker 1: are able to cancel.

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Speaker 2: Policies, well, it sounds to me like it's probably dollar

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Speaker 2: for dollar coverage.

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Speaker 1: Brig them, Yeah, it is. It's pre paid insurance, I guess,

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Speaker 1: but you know, I think you know back to oil

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Speaker 1: price outlook, they're elevated based on risk premium right, likely

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Speaker 1: trading in the load to mid eighties today, there are

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Speaker 1: future is around seventy five to seventy eight. But what

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Speaker 1: we'll call the markets is restoration of the war risk

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Speaker 1: insurance or a clear protection of shipping lanes like the

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Speaker 1: United States did back during the Desert Storm War. When

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Speaker 1: I was there, we used the US flag tankers and

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Speaker 1: US warship. That may be a little bit different deal today.

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Speaker 1: So far, the US and it's coalition partners have hit

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Speaker 1: more than a thousand targets. The idea now that they

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Speaker 1: have complete air supremacy is to knock out every thing

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Speaker 1: that can launch something.

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Speaker 2: Well, given that China is so heavily relying on the

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Speaker 2: Iranian oil supply as with other Asian nations, doesn't this

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Speaker 2: provide an incentive for them to not try to protract

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Speaker 2: this in other words, help the Iranians fend off this attack,

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Speaker 2: because if we get a stable Iran, in spite of

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Speaker 2: the fact they're no longer a thorn in the western side,

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Speaker 2: you know, militarily long term objective, it will free up

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Speaker 2: their oil and drive the prices down.

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Speaker 1: It will and you know, what some people have pointed

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Speaker 1: to is a little bit of a three D chess

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Speaker 1: game going on. China has a lot of those critical

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Speaker 1: minerals we've talked about on the program, but they are

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Speaker 1: so highly reliant seventy plus percent on external oil sources.

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Speaker 1: Venezuela gone, Iran possibly gone. What's happening is their sources

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Speaker 1: of oil are being removed from the global market. That's

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Speaker 1: not by accident, that's intentional. So China doesn't want to

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Speaker 1: see the regime fail, and so I think one of

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Speaker 1: the things they'll be doing is try to b a

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Speaker 1: peace deal. Hey guys, let's stop this. The more and

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Speaker 1: longer this goes on and the more targets Iran hits,

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Speaker 1: including into the Gulf neighbors, the less appetite there is

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Speaker 1: to let this regime continue.

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Speaker 2: Well in timing is rather interesting, and some are suggesting

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Speaker 2: that this was an intentional timing thing. We launched the

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Speaker 2: attack on Iran after we kind of shored things up

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Speaker 2: in Venezuela, keeping their supply of oil on and actually

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Speaker 2: maybe improving the supply of oil out of Venezuela. The

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Speaker 2: very corrupt and incompetent nation it well, it probably still is,

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Speaker 2: but certainly wasn't the Maduro regime.

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Speaker 1: Well, that's true. We'll have to see how Venzuela goes.

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Speaker 1: I think you know what the current administration has learned

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Speaker 1: is this notion of nation building hasn't gone so well.

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Speaker 1: It's on the ground not gone so well. So you

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Speaker 1: know the strategy they're applying and we'll see if it

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Speaker 1: works is eliminate the threat and move on. And if

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Speaker 1: you resume the threat, we'll come back and do it

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Speaker 1: to you again.

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Speaker 2: Brig McCown, I'm want to bring it back to ask

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Speaker 2: you about what's going on here in the state of Ohio.

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Speaker 2: Headline leaked GEO bill would allow for electric companies to

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Speaker 2: own kr cdtalk station. Bryan Thomas with Hudson Institute find

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Speaker 2: them online at Hudson dot org. Brigham account our energy

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Speaker 2: policy expert. He does know what he's talking about. I

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Speaker 2: think all my listeners remember First Energy House Bill six

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Speaker 2: that resulted in the end of Larry Householder, the trial

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Speaker 2: of executives involved in it. Kind of like a pay

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Speaker 2: to play scheme. Here, you bail me out with a

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Speaker 2: billion dollars because I have a struggling nuclear or have

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Speaker 2: struggling nuclear facilities, and we'll give you fat bank and response.

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Speaker 2: So that's still unfolding and playing out. But I guess,

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Speaker 2: first off, as we pivot over to this new described

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Speaker 2: as leaked gop bill, why and how is it that

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Speaker 2: First Energy was struggling with their nuclear facilities and even

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Speaker 2: needed a bailout. I thought nuclear power was good and

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Speaker 2: it worked well, But is there something going on behind

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Speaker 2: the scenes, like maybe too many regulations or something associated

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Speaker 2: with using nuclear power?

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Speaker 1: Brigham? Yeah, the capital costs up front for nuclear power

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Speaker 1: is enormous, and that's something a current administration and secretary

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Speaker 1: right is trying to get under control of. The last reactor,

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Speaker 1: of course, that went online down in Georgia, the Vocal reactor,

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Speaker 1: I think, cost twice as much as it was expected

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Speaker 1: to cost from the beginning. That's frankly because of the

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Speaker 1: permitting process and not yes, although government permitting not necessarily

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Speaker 1: environmental permitting, although that can play an issue, But the

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Speaker 1: National Regulatory Commission the NRC, seems to have spent more

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Speaker 1: time avoiding licensing nuclear reactors during the history of its

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Speaker 1: lifetime than it has actually getting them done. Plus, the

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Speaker 1: industry has some fault here because there are not two

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Speaker 1: reactors in America that are the same. Right, It's like

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Speaker 1: guys build the same car, license it, and then build

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Speaker 1: it again. Not that hard.

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Speaker 2: Well, let me ask you a really quick sort of

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Speaker 2: tongue in cheet question, Briga Mcowan. Does the military have

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Speaker 2: to go through the same regulatory process that people out

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Speaker 2: here in the real world go through? Because are my

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Speaker 2: submarine or friend curubage MIC's out there? He was on

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Speaker 2: a nuclear powered sub That thing had been in action

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Speaker 2: for like decks. That's what happens with nuclear powered subs

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Speaker 2: and aircraft carries in alike. The things last for like

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Speaker 2: twenty to forty years, and they've been used since late

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Speaker 2: nineteen fifties. They have no problem with them, Brigham, how

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Speaker 2: come we can't have some of those?

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Speaker 1: Well, they don't. In the new versions of those reactors

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Speaker 1: may not even need to be refueled. Ever, during the

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Speaker 1: entire fifty plus year lifespan. Yeah, you're right, and we're

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Speaker 1: talking about small modular reactors. Now, that's what the Navy's

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Speaker 1: done since, frankly the nineteen fifties. And no, it is

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Speaker 1: a slightly differencing different program. The Bureau of Naval Reactors

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Speaker 1: in the Navy does talk closely with the DOE, but

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Speaker 1: the designs are simpler, they're consistent. We don't have eighty

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Speaker 1: nine designs. We have far fewer, so it's much easier

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Speaker 1: to do. But you know, Brian, you're really getting back

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Speaker 1: to Diltman questions. Why is the GOP wanting to return

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Speaker 1: and move us away from? Quite frankly, you know, we

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Speaker 1: moved away from utility companies being able to own their

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Speaker 1: own generation and allowing regulated utilities to own their own

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Speaker 1: generation inside a competitive market. It distorts wholesale pricing. It's

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Speaker 1: frankly not very capitalistic. And to your point, that twenty

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Speaker 1: nineteen seemed yesterday, and I think they're gonna have some

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Speaker 1: issues here.

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Speaker 2: Oh they are. And I got a kick out of

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Speaker 2: this shocking. No one has any understanding of how legislation

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Speaker 2: is written. Local wcpo's Morgan trial seems like appalled at

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Speaker 2: the idea that this was the particular legislation we're talking

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Speaker 2: about here was co written by an energy company. That's

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Speaker 2: what they do. I mean, our elected officials don't know

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Speaker 2: jack squat about energy, so they have to rely on

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Speaker 2: folks in the no lobbyists for the energy companies. Right

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Speaker 2: stuff handed to the legislators. They look at it, they

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Speaker 2: have it explained to them. It's pre prepared and if

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Speaker 2: it looks appealing and as it's written, it seems appealing

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Speaker 2: and it's good for the Ohioans, then that's how you

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Speaker 2: get something written. If you left it to any one

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Speaker 2: of our elected officials to literally write something on their own,

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Speaker 2: nothing would get done.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, well, if I may in our closing minutes. The

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Speaker 1: reason it distorts the market is you have two scenarios. One,

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Speaker 1: you have the utility companies that own all their stuff.

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Speaker 1: That's in several states other states like us, the electric

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Speaker 1: company buys power from a generator, a different company that

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Speaker 1: is privately backed, privately funded, hence private risk. When you

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Speaker 1: allow the utility company to own their own generation, now

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Speaker 1: that becomes a public risk and we're all going to

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Speaker 1: pay for it.

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Speaker 2: Is that why our energy bills are going up? Brigham account,

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Speaker 2: You just have to answer that final question for a

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Speaker 2: part company. Mine have gone through the roof. And is

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Speaker 2: it just the price of energy? Is this the transmission

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Speaker 2: lines that they're busily rebuilding or extending. Why are we

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Speaker 2: all paying so much more on our energy bills?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it's There are numerous factors, but the bottom line

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Speaker 1: is the energy company can just pass costs along to you.

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Speaker 1: There's no incentive not to do that.

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Speaker 2: And the old days, they used to build it and

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Speaker 2: then recoup the cost after it was built. Right, Yes,

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Speaker 2: that's true, not the way it is anymore. The sorry

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Speaker 2: we have you, Brigham Acount to explain all these things

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Speaker 2: to us. We've got to get you back on the

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Speaker 2: show for a full hour in studio to talk broader

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Speaker 2: energy energy policy, and maybe we'll do that again real soon. Brigham.

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Speaker 2: I appreciate your willingness to come on the program and

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Speaker 2: talk with my listeners and.

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Speaker 1: Me absolutely, And you've just give me a couple of

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Speaker 1: ideas for charged conversation.

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Speaker 2: So glad you mention