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Speaker 1: Mister New York marsimone on wo Well, bring you to

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Speaker 1: the smartest people around now, Breitbart Business Digest.

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Speaker 2: You got to read this, you got to subscribe to this.

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Speaker 2: It's very important. Bright Bart Business Digest. The President reads it.

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Speaker 2: I mean, the smartest people, Larry Kudlow is the first

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Speaker 2: thing they read every day. Bright Bart Business Digest. Go

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Speaker 2: your email, but sign up for it at Breitbart dot com.

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Speaker 2: And the editor of the Business Digest is the brilliant

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Speaker 2: John Karney, and he's with us right now. John Carney,

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Speaker 2: how you doing.

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Speaker 3: Thanks for having me Mark, and yeah, thanks for reading

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Speaker 3: Business Digect.

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Speaker 2: Well, thanks for doing it. It's great stuff. Now, the

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Speaker 2: jobs numbers today was supposed to be up fifty thousand.

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Speaker 2: It's way down and they even revised down previous report.

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Speaker 2: What happened.

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Speaker 3: It is a very bad jobs report. There's probably a

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Speaker 3: few non economic factors going on. Remember how harsh February

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Speaker 3: was weatherwise, and we had days where, like you know,

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Speaker 3: with blizzards in New York. There was days where it

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Speaker 3: was zero degrees less than zero degrees. You're not hiring

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Speaker 3: and you're not looking for a job in that kind

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Speaker 3: of weather, So that was probably contributed to part of it.

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Speaker 3: But look, the forecasts were supposedly taking that into account.

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Speaker 3: It's not like the people who said we were going

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Speaker 3: to get fifty thousand jobs didn't know it was cold

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Speaker 3: in February.

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Speaker 4: So this is a lot worse.

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Speaker 3: There was also has our health had a big strike

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Speaker 3: the Department of Labor, so that took out a lot

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Speaker 3: of the healthcare jobs. But this is a weak number.

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Speaker 4: Some of it is probably AI driven.

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Speaker 3: We saw business and professional services and information those are

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Speaker 3: two areas very exposed to you know, people losing their

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Speaker 3: jobs to AI. Those both contracted. I think if you

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Speaker 3: take a three month average, so we added a lot

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Speaker 3: of jobs in January, but.

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Speaker 4: December got revised.

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Speaker 3: Down to a from a gain of forty eight thousand

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Speaker 3: to a loss, so we are that took out.

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Speaker 4: A lot of jobs.

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Speaker 3: We are averaging only about six thousand jobs a month

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Speaker 3: over the last three months, and if you take the

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Speaker 3: six month average, we've lost one thousand jobs a month.

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Speaker 3: That's a pretty weak labor market. The Federal Reserve should

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Speaker 3: look at that and say you know, there's some cause

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Speaker 3: for concern here. We should be prepared to cut rates

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Speaker 3: if we need to. However, they're also going to see

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Speaker 3: stuff like oil prices rising very rapidly and get nervous

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Speaker 3: that that could lead to uh, lead people to expect

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Speaker 3: more inflation and therefore push inflation up.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, but overall the economy is healthy. So yes, you

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Speaker 2: must be very surprised.

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Speaker 3: Absolutely, No, the economy is growing very quickly. We are.

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Speaker 3: Productivity has been you know, a huge winner, and that

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Speaker 3: actually may be part of the story here. We're the

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Speaker 3: output per our work of us workers has been rising

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Speaker 3: at a very rapid level. One of the things that

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Speaker 3: means is that businesses actually don't need to hire many

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Speaker 3: people because when you can get you know, three or

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Speaker 3: four percent more out of your worker than you were

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Speaker 3: you know, a year ago, then you you're hiring needs

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Speaker 3: just don't go up as much. It's actually probably both

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Speaker 3: because unemployment is very low and we and we're a

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Speaker 3: lot of people are retiring and we're deporting a lot

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Speaker 3: of the low wage workers who were here illegally. Businesses

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Speaker 3: are actually trying to figure out how to do more

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Speaker 3: with fewer people. And so the although you know. Yes,

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Speaker 3: I'm not going to try to say that ninety two

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Speaker 3: thousand jobs is not a bad number, but I will

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Speaker 3: say it's not as bad as it looks, in part.

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Speaker 4: Because businesses are finding ways.

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Speaker 3: To grow without trying to hire people, and unemployment is

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Speaker 3: very low. Four point four percent is a very low number,

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Speaker 3: So even though we're not hiring people, there's not a

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Speaker 3: lot of people without jobs right now.

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Speaker 2: Hey, why are they revising earlier reports? I thought we

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Speaker 2: fixed that problem.

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Speaker 3: Will never fix that problem, and it's going to stay

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Speaker 3: a problem. One of the things that's happened in recent

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Speaker 3: years is actually the initial response rate. So you know

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Speaker 3: they do these things. It's it's actually very strange. You

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Speaker 3: know that we still do it this way, but it's

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Speaker 3: basically they send out surveys to businesses and say how

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Speaker 3: many people work for you? And the response rate from

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Speaker 3: those surveys has gone way down, at least the initial

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Speaker 3: response rate, So businesses are taking longer to report to

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Speaker 3: the government they're payrolls. That means that they get in

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Speaker 3: later data, which means they have to revise the prior numbers,

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Speaker 3: and you get these wild revisions and springs. The good

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Speaker 3: news is the January number.

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Speaker 4: Which was really good actually wasn't revised very much.

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Speaker 3: It came in at one hundred and thirty thousand. That

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Speaker 3: was you know, the mind blowing January hiring spree. We

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Speaker 3: saw that got revised down to one hundred and twenty

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Speaker 3: six thousand, So still really really good numbers. The bad

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Speaker 3: news is maybe that gets revised again. I'd also you know,

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Speaker 3: warned this one, this ninety two thousand, that could get revised,

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Speaker 3: and they don't just get revised down, they get revised up.

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Speaker 3: So this number might not be as bad, or maybe

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Speaker 3: it's much worse. I hate to like say you can't

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Speaker 3: rely on the numbers, but that's the way it is.

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Speaker 2: Why are we sending out surveys. It's twenty twenty six.

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Speaker 2: Why can't you digitally see exactly who's working.

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Speaker 3: Where you know you can? And there are people who

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Speaker 3: are trying to do that better. Look, I'll tell you

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Speaker 3: like a lot of the big banks, they get a

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Speaker 3: lot of payroll data themselves because they.

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Speaker 4: Have booth you know, they're the banks for the businesses.

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Speaker 3: So they and they and they're the banks for the people.

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Speaker 3: They look at their own internal data.

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Speaker 4: You have ADP.

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Speaker 3: They put out their own reports they're a big payroll

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Speaker 3: process or the government could probably update it. From what

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Speaker 3: I understand, actually, some of the services are actually still

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Speaker 3: received by facts, so literally, you know, like you have

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Speaker 3: a fact come in and people are reading it. That

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Speaker 3: sounds ridiculous and it is. I guess it's better than

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Speaker 3: people having to mail them in, but it is still

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Speaker 3: it's not being done very efficiently.

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Speaker 2: Right, Wow, Hey John Carney brightbart business dies. If you

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Speaker 2: watch the fake news, all you hear about is oil prices,

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Speaker 2: gas prices. It's obviously it's a spike due to the war.

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Speaker 2: But correct, it's just a spike. They will come down.

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Speaker 2: Won't take these prices?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, they will come down. The real question and the

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Speaker 3: real question is how long they stay elevated if oil

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Speaker 3: prices go up. Right now, they're going up a lot.

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Speaker 3: This morning, I saw brent krude, which is like the

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Speaker 3: international standard, was up above ninety one dollars a barrel.

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Speaker 3: That's a lot. It's less than what we saw back

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Speaker 3: in twenty twenty two. I mean, we saw oil get

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Speaker 3: up to one hundred and fifty dollars a barrel under

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Speaker 3: Biden was and that's what led to gas prices going

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Speaker 3: sky high.

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Speaker 4: We will see.

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Speaker 3: Gas prices go up even from a short term oil spike,

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Speaker 3: but it really doesn't start to weigh on the economy

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Speaker 3: unless it stays up there.

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Speaker 4: So as long as the Trump administration.

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Speaker 3: In the US military can get that golf that straight

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Speaker 3: of her moves open so that Persian golf oil can

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Speaker 3: come through, which is about twenty percent of the world's

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Speaker 3: oil supply. As long as that reopens, we'll see this

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Speaker 3: come down. It's probably it's almost certainly not going to

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Speaker 3: be a permanent increase in the price of oil. It

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Speaker 3: should come down, but it's not clear right right now.

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Speaker 3: Donald Trump says he wants to keep going until he

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Speaker 3: gets an unconditional surrender from Iran. Iran still has missiles

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Speaker 3: that they can launch at tankers, but straight try to

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Speaker 3: get through this bottleneck between the Persian golf and the

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Speaker 3: rest of the world. So you know, it could last

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Speaker 3: a while right now. I think one of the reasons

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Speaker 3: the prices are up so much today is because people

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Speaker 3: are worried that maybe the conflict doesn't get resolved quickly.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, hey what about Wall Street? They I mean, you

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Speaker 2: fire one shot in they panic? What is this panic

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Speaker 2: at waste?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, look, we've seen this, I think for a year.

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Speaker 3: Every time something bad happens, Wall Street panics, right, So

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Speaker 3: if Trump announces tariffs that are higher than they expected,

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Speaker 3: you get this sell off. The people who really make

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Speaker 3: money on Wall Street these days are the people who

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Speaker 3: buy into the selloffs because they reverse. You know, if

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Speaker 3: you've timed it back to the to that Trump to

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Speaker 3: the Trump Liberation Day tariff announcement, stocks are up close

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Speaker 3: to thirty percent of that.

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Speaker 4: So you know, the smart guys.

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Speaker 3: Made a lot of money by buying into the panics,

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Speaker 3: and we'll probably see that again. People, you know, the

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Speaker 3: Dow goes down, people smart money will come in and

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Speaker 3: buy that said like, look, the stocks aren't even down

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Speaker 3: that much. I would have thought with oil up at

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Speaker 3: you know, above ninety dollars, that we've seen an even

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Speaker 3: bigger panic. I think people are figuring out that this

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Speaker 3: is probably not going to be an economic catastrophe even

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Speaker 3: with these bad jobs numbers. Again, that could change though,

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Speaker 3: if it does seem like we're going to be in

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Speaker 3: a long, drun out war, or that Iran's offensive capabilities

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Speaker 3: in the Persian Gulf are stronger than people thought.

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Speaker 2: Wow, well, John Carney, great stuff. I urge everybody to

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Speaker 2: sign up. You're gonna love it. Read it every day.

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Speaker 2: Bright Bart Business Digest. Just go to Breitbart dot com

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Speaker 2: sign up for bright Bart Business Digest. It's the best

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Speaker 2: and you'll love it. John Carney, great stuff, Thanks for

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Speaker 2: being with us, Thanks for having me, Mark, I take care. Hey,

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Speaker 2: don't forget Buck and Clay Noon Today and get Buck's

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Speaker 2: new book. You can go to Amazon Buck sext an

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Speaker 2: excellent new book that's just come out. Also, Sean Hannity

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Speaker 2: three o'clock, the most listen to radio show in the world,

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Speaker 2: Jimmy Fayla every night at nine, And don't forget Curtis

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Speaker 2: begins Monday. Here he'll be on the Morning Show with

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Speaker 2: Larry starting Monday on seven ten. Woir