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Speaker 1: From fifty five KRC Deep Talk Station See once Fi

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Speaker 1: fifty five KRC the Talk station.

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Speaker 2: It is that time.

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Speaker 1: I'm sorry, Daniel Davis. It's time for the Daniel Davis

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Speaker 1: Deeve Dive. I was lasting laughing at the bumper music

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Speaker 1: that Joe is playing from Pink Floyd generally speaking about

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Speaker 1: Warren generally and that's what you and I typically talk about.

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Speaker 1: Said as it is, we are engaged in global conflict

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Speaker 1: and nobody knows better than Daniel Davis, retired Lieutenant colonel.

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Speaker 1: And you can find podcasts from Daniel Davis throughout the

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Speaker 1: week wherever you get your podcast. Daniel Davis Deep Dive.

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Speaker 1: Welcome back, my friend, Gie. It's too bad we don't

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Speaker 1: have anything to talk about today. Good to have you back.

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Speaker 2: You know, I was thinking about that, Brian. It's like, man,

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Speaker 2: what are we going to talk about Dador's hard anything.

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Speaker 2: Oh wait a minute, yike.

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Speaker 1: I don't want to throw a curveball because there's a

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Speaker 1: lot of you know, activity going on that we can

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Speaker 1: we can focus on it. We will, But I thought

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Speaker 1: it rather interesting, perhaps if you can find levity in

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Speaker 1: the situation. I was talking to Congressman David Taylor I

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Speaker 1: believe it was on Friday, and we were talking about

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Speaker 1: the War Powers Authorization of War Powers Resolution, Congressman Massy

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Speaker 1: Rokanna saying, listen, we got a vote on this. He

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Speaker 1: expressed some favor in that, and I said out loud,

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Speaker 1: well the votes next week sometime. I think they have

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Speaker 1: a queued up for Thursday. I said, well, what happens

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Speaker 1: if Donald Trump's launches the war over the weekend ahead

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Speaker 1: of the vote, And that's exactly what happened, So I

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Speaker 1: don't think he was necessarily trying to get out ahead

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Speaker 1: of the vote. What we found out, though, is I

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Speaker 1: guess the Israeli intelligence is pretty damn good. You think

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Speaker 1: a zoom call would have been a better idea for

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Speaker 1: the Ayatola and his top leaders. They all congregated in

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Speaker 1: one single spot. I thought they would have known better

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Speaker 1: than that. Daniel Davis, your reaction to that.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it's a mixed one. At least according to what

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Speaker 2: the Iranians have said was that they encouraged him to

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Speaker 2: go into another place. They encouraged him to go into

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Speaker 2: many underground bunkers that they have, and he said, no,

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Speaker 2: I'm just going to keep going about my normal business

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Speaker 2: and if I die, I die. Part of me thinks

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Speaker 2: that they that was part of the plan. As an

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Speaker 2: eighty six year old, I think he just said, you

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Speaker 2: know what, I'm going to die, use me as a

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Speaker 2: martin d that's where I can best serve. That's what

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Speaker 2: That's part of it. But then the other part is

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Speaker 2: less is less clear. If you wanted to become a martyr,

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Speaker 2: that's one thing, But to have a meeting with a

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Speaker 2: lot of your top leaders, that doesn't seem to be

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Speaker 2: very wise. So I think that was a big mistake.

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Speaker 2: It could be that they thought that, you know, the

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Speaker 2: conventional military wisdom is you attacking the middle of the

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Speaker 2: not two three am in the morning. That's kind of

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Speaker 2: our modus operad died and when the sun came up

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Speaker 2: at like six something, apparently they had this meeting at eight,

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Speaker 2: and I guess they thought, Okay, well, it's not going

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Speaker 2: to happen today, so let's come back together. And that

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Speaker 2: curve ball was pretty pretty costly for the Iranian side.

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Speaker 1: Well, of course, it ties into the whole idea of

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Speaker 1: what is going to happen next. If this is regime change,

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Speaker 1: we'll we'll find out. But you know, there's a command

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Speaker 1: of control structure, there's a hierarchy, and most of the

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Speaker 1: hierarchy evaporates in that one bomb strike. So what's left.

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Speaker 1: I imagine there are enough fundamentalist individuals and somebody could

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Speaker 1: step in the shoes of the Iotola and take over

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Speaker 1: that role. But will that person have the same power

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Speaker 1: and control that the late Iatola had because I understand

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Speaker 1: this was like a cult of personality. He was the guy,

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Speaker 1: and what he said goes, and everything was built in

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Speaker 1: and around supporting him.

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Speaker 2: Well, this is something we need to understand here so

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Speaker 2: that we have a sober understanding of what should come next.

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Speaker 2: The Iranians fully foresaw this and they had a plan

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Speaker 2: in place. They had a Continuities government plan like we

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Speaker 2: have here, and they had by some reports two and

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Speaker 2: three deep on nearly all the senior leader positions. They

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Speaker 2: also had something that we're seeing play out in that

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Speaker 2: a version of the dead hand strategy to where if

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Speaker 2: you lose communications because they anticipated that we would hit

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Speaker 2: the command of control centers, that we would try to

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Speaker 2: knock out their computer system cyber attax, et cetera, and

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Speaker 2: that they would lose connect connectivity. So they already had

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Speaker 2: an action plan in place and said, if you lose contact,

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Speaker 2: here's your actions. Don't wait for any more instructions. You

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Speaker 2: start launching these missile batteries. You start launching those, here's

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Speaker 2: your target set, et cetera. And it worked brilliantly from

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Speaker 2: the Iranian perspective. And I would challenge these characterizations that

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Speaker 2: I see a lot of people making that this as

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Speaker 2: a cult personality situation, because the Iranian situation is built

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Speaker 2: on a hierarchical system and a bureaucracy that transcends just

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Speaker 2: the iatola. He is a figure, he is important figure.

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Speaker 2: He is the head of state. But they have a

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Speaker 2: lot of other governing institutions and bodies and positions. So

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Speaker 2: I think that they are going to have more success

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Speaker 2: replacing this that I think many in the West may think.

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Speaker 2: And so far, that's exactly the way it's worked out,

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Speaker 2: And there hadn't been any diminution or reduction in their

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Speaker 2: ability to conduct affairs or to have a coherent command

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Speaker 2: of control system. And you haven't seen anybody rise up

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Speaker 2: against it. And I'll tell you one other thing that's

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Speaker 2: not working out in our favor at all. On the

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Speaker 2: surface of it, you had this tragedy where a girls'

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Speaker 2: school was hit in the opening rounds of this, whether

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Speaker 2: by an American, is there's really missed, We don't know yet.

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Speaker 2: But hundreds of kids were killed in teachers and that

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Speaker 2: has galvanized the country against us, and they're openly protested.

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Speaker 2: There was millions of people marching at their funeral I

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Speaker 2: think earlier today, just hours ago, and that is not

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Speaker 2: helping our hope that people would rise up against the

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Speaker 2: regime after we knocked out the Mola, the Iola and

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Speaker 2: then turn over right now, there's no evidence that's going

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Speaker 2: to happen at all.

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Speaker 1: Well, I let me suggest perhaps it is because the

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Speaker 1: Itola had been going around killing tens of thousands of

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Speaker 1: his own people who did raise this spec or did

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Speaker 1: go out and protest. Maybe they still have that taste

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Speaker 1: in the back of the mountain. They're waiting to see

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Speaker 1: how things settle out. So I can of course understand

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Speaker 1: loyalists taking to the street to protest a horrific action

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Speaker 1: like blowing up a school. Question is whether there's an equal,

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Speaker 1: if not greater number behind the scenes or keeping their

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Speaker 1: powder dry because they're afraid that well the troops might

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Speaker 1: pull gun them down the streets.

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Speaker 2: Well, they certainly may, and if a lot of them

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Speaker 2: protests up, that almost certainly would happen. But I'll tell

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Speaker 2: you there's another dynamic here. I've talked to somebody I

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Speaker 2: know that's in the United States that absolutely hated the regime.

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Speaker 2: In fact, it was driven out. His family was driven

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Speaker 2: out by him. I've talked to another friend of mine

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Speaker 2: who himself interviewed somebody, and these are two people that

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Speaker 2: absolutely hate the Iotota regime and all that and wanted

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Speaker 2: to be overthrown. But they said that we have put

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Speaker 2: them in this really, really awkward position to where you're saying, listen,

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Speaker 2: you're wanting us to help you who is attacking us,

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Speaker 2: Israel and the United States. You know, somebody who's been

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Speaker 2: an enemy of Isra or Iran for a long time,

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Speaker 2: and you're wanting us to somehow say, yes, we're gonna see,

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Speaker 2: We're going to take your side who you're killing our people,

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Speaker 2: our civilians, and are blowing up our cities and blowing

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Speaker 2: up our military. And we're going to help you to

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Speaker 2: try to overturn this. And then the other thing they say,

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Speaker 2: both of them said is that, look, you've got a

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Speaker 2: terrible track record of having regime change and then just

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Speaker 2: walking away and leaving chaos behind. And we don't want

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Speaker 2: to be another failed state. So that's making people not

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Speaker 2: want to embrace what we're doing. And we got a

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Speaker 2: lot of you know, we got a lot of bad

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Speaker 2: history there on our side. It doesn't help us.

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Speaker 1: Well, I suppose intent isn't worth a wit when you're

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Speaker 1: talking about actual collateral damage. But the intent, I suppose,

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Speaker 1: and I think I'm on solid ground on this. We

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Speaker 1: don't want to kill the Iranian people. That may happen

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Speaker 1: as consequence of war, which happens all the time. That's

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Speaker 1: the regrettable part about it. That's why we all weep

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Speaker 1: over warfare, because innocent people die. But we are truly

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Speaker 1: after the military and the idea of liberating them from

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Speaker 1: the military. That's the thumb of oppression, as we would

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Speaker 1: put it, that prevents them from enjoying the freedoms and

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Speaker 1: perhaps working cooperatively with their neighbors in the region.

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Speaker 2: Well, but you got to understand though, from I mean,

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Speaker 2: it's not too dissimilar from what we have here. We

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Speaker 2: may not a lot of people may not like you know,

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Speaker 2: whoever's in the White House at any given time, but

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Speaker 2: everybody's sports the troops. Well, there's a similar situation in Iran,

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Speaker 2: at least from part of it is that the military

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Speaker 2: per se that keeps them, you know, that's their national

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Speaker 2: security fences made up of people like them, so their

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Speaker 2: neighbors and whatever they care about them. It's you know,

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Speaker 2: it's the guys who were given orders, especially the ones

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Speaker 2: that were keeping security, that were attacking the protesters. So

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Speaker 2: those guys have a different category. But the general military

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Speaker 2: who are getting attacked and stuff are part of the population.

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Speaker 2: So that's that's not necessarily they don't necessarily view them

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Speaker 2: as an enemy at.

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Speaker 1: Large, all right, Daniel Davis, You and I have talked

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Speaker 1: about this quite a few times in different battle theaters.

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Speaker 1: The same thing applies here, the potential of running out

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Speaker 1: of interceptors. We don't know how many bombs, rockets, long

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Speaker 1: term miss or long range missiles of the Iranians have.

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Speaker 1: They clearly have more, but we are going through the

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Speaker 1: interceptors of various types I mentioned earlier, more than changes

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Speaker 1: of underwear, you know, daily for me, and they're going

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Speaker 1: through thousands of these things. It looks like they're going

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Speaker 1: to run out. It's we can't make them as quickly

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Speaker 1: as they need them, So more and more of these

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Speaker 1: rockets are going to end up pitting targets.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, that is a huge problem. And when we're already

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Speaker 2: seeing something I thank you and I talked about before.

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Speaker 2: Is that. Listen, we saw in June twenty twenty five

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Speaker 2: that a lot of these Iranian missiles we're getting through,

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Speaker 2: and the longer that war went, the more of them

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Speaker 2: we're getting through. And I said, there's no reason to

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Speaker 2: think that they wouldn't start the next round where they

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Speaker 2: ended up the last one. And that's how it's working out.

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Speaker 2: I don't know if you've been seeing a lot of

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Speaker 2: these missiles inner incoming into Israel, Yes, but I mean

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Speaker 2: you see sometimes there's these whole broadges and you see

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Speaker 2: two or three intercepted, and you see a bunch of

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Speaker 2: them getting through there. So even with the interceptors we have,

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Speaker 2: there's already a lot of the ballistic missiles that are

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Speaker 2: getting through where have some success on the drones at

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Speaker 2: least some success. Some of those are still getting through.

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Speaker 2: But if you get to the point of where there's

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Speaker 2: not enough to even shoot down some of the missiles here, yeah,

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Speaker 2: there's gonna be a world to hurt because look, I

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Speaker 2: think that Iran has foreseen this possibility and has prepared

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Speaker 2: for decades, for decades, and they have an enormous stock

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Speaker 2: pile of these things in these big underground missile cities

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Speaker 2: some are calling them, which they have released some video

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Speaker 2: and shows, and it's just caaverius and miles of underground tunnels.

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Speaker 2: And I'm talking to like massive things that you can

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Speaker 2: drive big trucks into, stuffed full of ammunition and weapons

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Speaker 2: and missiles, missile launchers, drones, the big ones, the medium

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Speaker 2: sized ones, all kinds of ordinance. So the evidence suggests

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Speaker 2: that they have more offensive missiles than we do defensive missiles.

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Speaker 2: And if this thing drags out, we're going to be

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Speaker 2: in some trouble.

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Speaker 1: Well, given Donald Trump's pronouncements that they haven't seen anything yet,

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Speaker 1: is it possible that intelligence sources know where these are

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Speaker 1: and like ultimately bombing the underground nuclear based or nuclear facilities,

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Speaker 1: that those two will be targets, maybe, you know, eviscerating

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Speaker 1: Iron's ability to, like our interceptor missiles, their ability to

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Speaker 1: continue to launch these massive barrages.

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Speaker 2: I have no doubts that that's a priority target for US.

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Speaker 2: It has been from the beginning. I don't know why

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Speaker 2: we would wait on that. I'm not sure what Trump

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Speaker 2: may mean on that, but I'll just tell you these

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Speaker 2: facilities were built specifically to withstand those kinds of missiles,

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Speaker 2: and we have very few of these big GBU bunker

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Speaker 2: busters that we used in the Operation Midnight Hammer, and

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Speaker 2: even those had limited capacity under the very deeply underground

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Speaker 2: strikes that we hit there at four to Oho and

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Speaker 2: the tons, etc. So we don't have that many. And

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Speaker 2: some of these have to be carried by B twos

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Speaker 2: and you have to fly over the target and that

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Speaker 2: makes them at risk of being shot down, so that

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Speaker 2: it's a big risk that goes along with that. But

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Speaker 2: the bottom line is there's so many of these and

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Speaker 2: we don't know where they all are. This is a country, remember,

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Speaker 2: four times bigger than the country of Iraq geographically. This

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Speaker 2: stuff is spread out all over the place and you're

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Speaker 2: not going to find this. I mean, just look how

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Speaker 2: much trouble we had Israel had finding all the tunnels

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Speaker 2: of Hamas in this tiny little Gozza strip. They never

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Speaker 2: found them all. They're still looking for some today. If

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Speaker 2: that gives you any indication of how hard it is

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Speaker 2: going to be for us to knock out Iran.

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Speaker 1: I always try to maintain an awareness of how vast

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Speaker 1: the land is. Yeah, two point four times the state

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Speaker 1: of Texas. That's a lot of real estate. The retired

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Speaker 1: Lieutenant Colonel Daniel Davis for the Daniel Davis Deep Die

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Speaker 1: Find his podcast wherever you get yours, Daniel Davis. Something

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Speaker 1: tells me we'll be talking about this next Tuesday.

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Speaker 2: I have a feeling your right.

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Speaker 1: Well, at least we have an interesting topic to talk about.

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Speaker 1: God bless you, sir. We'll talk next Tuesday. Have a

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Speaker 1: great week, my friend.

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Speaker 2: Then,