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Speaker 1: The night. Michael Brown joins me here, the former FEMA

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Speaker 1: director of talk show host Michael Brown.

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Speaker 2: Brownie, No, Brownie, You're doing a heck of a job.

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Speaker 2: The Weekend with Michael Brown. Hey broadcasting life from Denver,

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Speaker 2: Colorado today with no technical glitches. It's the Weekend with

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Speaker 2: Michael Brown. Glad have you joining the program today? Text

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Speaker 2: line is always open three three one zero three three

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Speaker 2: three one zero three. Keyword Micha or Michael. I'm going

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Speaker 2: to follow me on social media, whether it's Facebook, Instagram, X.

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Speaker 2: They're all at Michael D. Brown, at Michael D.

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Speaker 1: Brown.

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Speaker 2: You remember, there's probably been I don't know, maybe a

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Speaker 2: couple of weeks ago. Secretary of State marcaol Rubio appeared

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Speaker 2: before I think it was the Senate. I'm not sure

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Speaker 2: it's the Sidate Committee. Maybe he's the Senate Foreign Affairs Committee,

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Speaker 2: and he had this to say, all.

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Speaker 3: Right, here we go.

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Speaker 1: Since has been you know, the.

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Speaker 2: Drilling to jail. That's a poor clime. That's a one

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Speaker 2: year ban.

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Speaker 1: Anyone who is a persistent violator will be banned through

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Speaker 1: three years. So I don't know whether the guy falls

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Speaker 1: neck Catebic Grey looks like it. I hope after three

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Speaker 1: years we'll find a more productive to me, Secretary Rubio,

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Speaker 1: we have two hearings a week. You know, you seem

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Speaker 1: to have a more robust following than most of our

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Speaker 1: witnesses that come before us.

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Speaker 3: But anyway, there'll be a couple more. So I just

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Speaker 3: stop in the clock, but I appreciate it.

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Speaker 2: So so you're getting testified because here we go off

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Speaker 2: to jail. Oh my gosh, off to jail. Why or

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Speaker 2: what you ever thought about the fact that maybe the

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Speaker 2: United States is toward Taiwan.

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Speaker 3: No, Look, the situation on Taiwan is a g legacy

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Speaker 3: project that he's made very clear that that's what he

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Speaker 3: intends to do, and that's going to be irrespect of

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Speaker 3: anything that happens in the world. Your point, though, is

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Speaker 3: well taken, and that is the US and conducting this

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Speaker 3: operation I think was certainly startling to China, to Russia,

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Speaker 3: to Iran, to any adversary around the world, because the

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Speaker 3: US is the only country in world, the only country

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Speaker 3: in the world that could have done this operation a.

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Speaker 2: Terifica, just the only country in the world they could

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Speaker 2: have pulled off that operation Venezuela. So what I want

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Speaker 2: to do and I don't know how long this will take,

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Speaker 2: so just sit down, make yourself comfortable. You're not doing

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Speaker 2: anything anyway. We're going to talk about foreign affairs for

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Speaker 2: a little bit, and I want to go from Venezuela

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Speaker 2: to Greenland and see if I can't tie those two together.

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Speaker 2: And I think I can. But have you really thought

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Speaker 2: about Operation Absolute Resolve. That was the amazingly stealth operation

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Speaker 2: that we did in Venezuela in which we had like

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Speaker 2: seems like our entire naval fleet down the Caribbean and

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Speaker 2: just snatched Nicholas Maduro and his wife out of the

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Speaker 2: middle of a military base.

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Speaker 3: Wow.

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Speaker 2: It was like the official story was kind of like this.

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Speaker 2: There was a whirlwind air attack. We used suicide drum

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Speaker 2: for the first time. There were special operators from our

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Speaker 2: the Army's renowned but shadowy s Faude unit, the Delta Force.

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Speaker 2: The helicoptered into a military complex in the south of Caracas,

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Speaker 2: obviously the capital of Venezuela. They defeated the local garrison.

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Speaker 2: They used massive blow torches and they breached very heavy,

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Speaker 2: heavy doors in a fortress like residential site within the

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Speaker 2: military base itself. They captured Nicholas Maduro and his wife,

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Speaker 2: and then they speared them back to helicopters and flew

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Speaker 2: them out to face charge of the United States. Wow,

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Speaker 2: and we heard all sorts of things about how it

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Speaker 2: took place. Of course, it was a very bravado operation, right.

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Speaker 2: Do you ever wonder if it was real, like a

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Speaker 2: true military operation with suppression of enemy air defense operations,

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Speaker 2: that's usually what precedes an assault. What did we do

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Speaker 2: in with Iran? Well, between US and the Israelis, we

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Speaker 2: took out all their air defenses. And then even when

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Speaker 2: we see the B two bombers over, we still sent

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Speaker 2: fighter jets ahead of them to make certain that just

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Speaker 2: in case there was an air defense system that we

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Speaker 2: had missed somewhere, they could still take that out so

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Speaker 2: the bombers could do their jobs. So anytime there's an

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Speaker 2: air assault or any type of assault like this, yes,

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Speaker 2: you wouldn't take out the air defenses, chalk and all

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Speaker 2: like we did in the Middle East in Operation Desert

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Speaker 2: Storm and the others. The military facilities themselves were not touched.

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Speaker 2: And despite in President Trump's own words, the Venezuelans, knowing

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Speaker 2: that the United States had been coming for months now,

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Speaker 2: all of their surface to air systems, surface to air

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Speaker 2: missile systems. They were all left exposed, and in hindsight,

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Speaker 2: none of them really showed signs of dispersal or destruction.

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Speaker 2: And even more puzzling thing about this, the helicopters of

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Speaker 2: the one hundred and six Special Operations Aviation Regiment. They

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Speaker 2: were able to get to the drop off point, loiter

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Speaker 2: near Caracas for two hours or more, returned to the

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Speaker 2: drop off point for extraction, and then fly out completely unscathed.

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Speaker 2: Not even any like rifle fire, Not one of Venezuela's

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Speaker 2: hundreds of Soviet Russian Eagle portable surface to air missile

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Speaker 2: systems which had been used to devastate the effect against

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Speaker 2: rotary aircraft, and India and Iraq and Rwanda and Chechne

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Speaker 2: and Peru, Libya, Siria, Ukraine and goes on and on

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Speaker 2: and on. None of those appeared to have even been fired.

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Speaker 2: There was very little infinity opposition. There was not a

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Speaker 2: lot of evidence that the US military had done much

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Speaker 2: to suppress enemy combatants. And then Trump comes out and

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Speaker 2: claims the operation had used some sort of secret sonic

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Speaker 2: weaponry that he wasn't allowed to talk about. Now anti

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Speaker 2: US commentators that are our enemies suggested a bunch of

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Speaker 2: skull degree among disloyal and the radical elements within the

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Speaker 2: that is the way of the regime itself in the

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Speaker 2: military hierarchy. What if there's some truth to that? What

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Speaker 2: if rather than some amazing Don't get me wrong, I

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Speaker 2: think what the still, even with cooperation with military forces

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Speaker 2: or the installed political leadership on the ground, what really happened?

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Speaker 2: Was it real or was a theater? Was it real

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Speaker 2: or was it memoris or was it all example of

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Speaker 2: what the French philosopher and sociologist John Bierraud called virtual war?

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Speaker 2: Was this a virtual war? Neil Ferguson, who's a world

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Speaker 2: famous historian, is always a proponent of using something called

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Speaker 2: alternate history, and he uses alternate history to explore is

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Speaker 2: there another way to look at this? Is there another

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Speaker 2: way that might give us a different perspective? And I

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Speaker 2: think Neil Ferguson is onto something.

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Speaker 1: Yet.

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Speaker 2: The point of departure in reimagining what happened last Yent

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Speaker 2: and this past January comes just a little before President

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Speaker 2: Trump gave the go order for Absolute Result, that's the

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Speaker 2: name of the military operation. US National security advisors explained

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Speaker 2: the situation. This way. As you know, mister President, visus

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Speaker 2: Away has been under sanctions for decades. They've crippled the

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Speaker 2: economy without precipitating any sort of regime change. Nobody's really

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Speaker 2: risen up. In fact, immigration flows people leaving the country

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Speaker 2: have acted as a force for self selection, removing many

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Speaker 2: of those individuals who might support a new regime. They've

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Speaker 2: just left the country. They've gone to Portugal, they gone

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Speaker 2: to Spain, they've gone to Columbia, they've gone to Peru.

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Speaker 2: They have self selected themselves and left. Think about it

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Speaker 2: that way, And then these advisers would say to the president,

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Speaker 2: but mister President, you have brilliantly, brilliantly ramped up the

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Speaker 2: p since returning of the White House. But even that

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Speaker 2: hasn't worked. Nobody, nobody, We don't see an uprising like

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Speaker 2: we saw in Teyrn, or for that matter, across all

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Speaker 2: the provinces in Iran. And so while we both know

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Speaker 2: that while we would undoubtedly win a war against Venezuela,

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Speaker 2: we know that would be costly, a messy. Right, So,

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Speaker 2: mister president, maybe you ought to do what you do best.

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Speaker 2: Why don't you just make a deal. Why don't you

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Speaker 2: make a deal. I think Neil Ferguson and his idea

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Speaker 2: that we look at things in alternate histories might give

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Speaker 2: us a little different idea about what took place, particularly

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Speaker 2: if you'll just hang with me and we'll draw in Greenland,

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Speaker 2: which was almost immediately the next focus of the White

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Speaker 2: House's The Weekend with Michael Brown. Text lines always open

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Speaker 2: three three one zero three, keyword Michael, Michael. Hang tight.

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Speaker 2: Let's think about this alternate reality for just a second.

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Speaker 2: I'll be right back. Hey, welcome back to the Weekend

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Speaker 2: with Michael Brown. Glad to have you with me. Appreciate

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Speaker 2: you tuning in. Text lines open three three one zerra

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Speaker 2: three keyword Michael, Mica. We're talking about an alternate history

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Speaker 2: about what may have occurred in Venezuela. Because now that

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Speaker 2: we know we've moved all of our Amada, like our

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Speaker 2: entire naval fleet from Caracas to the Middle East, think

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Speaker 2: about what's going on in the Middle East and why

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Speaker 2: are we moving all everything over there? Because the Iranian

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Speaker 2: people over the past forty forty six, forty seven years

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Speaker 2: have had these uprisings in which they try to topple

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Speaker 2: the regime, and you know, shame on us, but we

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Speaker 2: always say go, go go, and we know, well, we'll

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Speaker 2: support you, and then we never do, but they keep trying.

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Speaker 2: In Venezuela. It's just the opposite. For the entire time

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Speaker 2: that Maduro and his predecessor and all of them, since

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Speaker 2: they all took over, the dictators took over, there really

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Speaker 2: been no uprisings. Instead, what happens is people just leave,

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Speaker 2: They sneak out of the country. I've told you about

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Speaker 2: the individual that I know that lived in Venezuela, and

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Speaker 2: you know, he hated the regime, and you know he

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Speaker 2: was parts of different underground groups, but he eventually just

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Speaker 2: figured out a way to get himself to Spain and

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Speaker 2: got all the connections made and once he was able

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Speaker 2: to show that he could do it, then he had

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Speaker 2: his family follow him and they live in Spain now.

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Speaker 2: So he just kind of gave up. Isn't it interesting

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Speaker 2: that this country, the United States, certainly have had leverage

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Speaker 2: to strike a bargain. Think about the care We've had

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Speaker 2: sanctions in Venezuela forever. So if we took away the sanctions,

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Speaker 2: that would give Venezuela a tremendous economic boost, and then

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Speaker 2: the elites in Venezuela they could get rich in the process.

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Speaker 2: So we've got a carrot, but we have a stick too.

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Speaker 2: Even if invading Venezuela would be costly, it would be

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Speaker 2: even more devastating for Venezuela. The senior members of the

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Speaker 2: governing regime and the military would be lucky to escape

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Speaker 2: with their lives. They'd probably probably be killed and overthrown,

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Speaker 2: and they knew that. So how does the alternate reality

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Speaker 2: different from what is happening in Venezuela right now. Well,

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Speaker 2: when you think about it, not really a lot. Think

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Speaker 2: about the acting president, Dlsea Rodriguez. So she's been Madeuiro's

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Speaker 2: vice president for a while. What if CIA agents working

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Speaker 2: their channels said hey, listen, you cooperate with us. We'll

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Speaker 2: make a deal with you. And the deal with you

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Speaker 2: is we'll let you stay in power, but we have

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Speaker 2: some quid pro quothes. So what does she do after

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Speaker 2: we get that. I'm skipped ahead here a little bit.

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Speaker 2: But after our so called military operation captures Maduro, gets

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Speaker 2: him and the wife out of the country and she

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Speaker 2: assumes the presidency, what does she do. She signs it.

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Speaker 2: And remember she's a Marxist, she's a communist. She signed

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Speaker 2: into law a bill that would allow privately owned and

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Speaker 2: foreign companies to take stakes in Venezuela's previously nationalized oil industry.

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Speaker 2: Now the law also limits the royalties that Venezuela takes

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Speaker 2: from its oil up to only thirty percent. So Delsea

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Speaker 2: Rodriguez the Communist has actually allowed Washington to take control

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Speaker 2: of oil sales in her country, and part of that

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Speaker 2: deal is selling mostly to the United States. And then

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Speaker 2: she has agreed to an amnesty for political prisoners, and

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Speaker 2: the United States, for our park, has agreed to let

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Speaker 2: the regime continue to govern. Obviously Maduro is not a

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Speaker 2: part of it anymore, so slowly phasing out sanctions, allowing

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Speaker 2: the oil to flow from Venezuela and the revenues to

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Speaker 2: flow back, all under our control, though, but she remains

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Speaker 2: in power. So what if it was not a military

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Speaker 2: operation but a way for both sides to strike a

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Speaker 2: deal while saving face, for the United States to remove

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Speaker 2: sanctions but not looking like as if we were emitting

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Speaker 2: some sort of failure, and for Venezuela to do business

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Speaker 2: with the United States on our terms without appearing to cave.

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Speaker 2: Now that fits, That fits the very definition of a

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Speaker 2: virtual war perfectly. It's something masquerading as war, so the

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Speaker 2: US military not engaging directly with enemy soldiers about we

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Speaker 2: really don't know the fate about any of the enemy soldiers, right,

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Speaker 2: no agreed figure for the number of enemy combatants killed

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Speaker 2: during this operation. Conflicting reports say, oh, maybe seventy five,

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Speaker 2: including thirty two Cubans. The only understanding of the operation

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Speaker 2: that when you look at hindsight and go through all

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Speaker 2: the news articles, comes through the medium of some really

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Speaker 2: propagandistic imagery made possible by modern technology, that all woven together,

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Speaker 2: creates a vision, a picture of war, super soldiers, secret

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Speaker 2: sonic weapons, a fighter jet for every possible situation, viral

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Speaker 2: amateur footage of every possible detonation. But we were given

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Speaker 2: no pause for thought before being whirled from virtual war

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Speaker 2: to virtual diplomacy. Because on January third, shortly after the

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Speaker 2: announcement of the capture of Maduro, Katie Miller, who is

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Speaker 2: the wife of Stephen Miller, who is the Deputy chief

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Speaker 2: of Staff. Stephen Miller, posted on x an image of

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Speaker 2: Greenland covered with an American flag captured or captured soon

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Speaker 2: like your next, Your next. Between January five and januar

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Speaker 2: Ruary seven, Trump said in interviews that acquiring Greenland was

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Speaker 2: a national security priority in order to defer to deter

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Speaker 2: our adversaries in the Arctic. The White House Press secretary

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Speaker 2: said that the President has made a well known that

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Speaker 2: acquiring Greenland is a national security priority of the United States,

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Speaker 2: and then by January nine, Trump had threatened action. Quote,

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Speaker 2: we are going to do something on Greenland, whether they

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Speaker 2: like it or not. So there's a starting point in negotiations, right,

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Speaker 2: We're going to do something whether you like it or not.

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Speaker 2: Perfect bargaining position. I would like to make a deal

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Speaker 2: the easy way. But if we don't do it the

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Speaker 2: easy way, he said, we're going to do it the

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Speaker 2: hard way. Wow. So that's January nine. Then five days

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Speaker 2: later he goes to DeVos and Trump was still refusing

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Speaker 2: to rule out military action to take Greenland. On January fifteen,

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Speaker 2: Denmark and Germany deployed troops to Greenland and on the

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Speaker 2: island itself, and even over the past few days, Greenlanders

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Speaker 2: have been advised to stock up on supplies in case

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Speaker 2: of a potential crisis. They've taken to thea, a pension

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Speaker 2: funded in Denmark and then one in Sweden announced they

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Speaker 2: would be divesting from US Treasury bonds, and then there

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Speaker 2: was talk about other European funs might do the same

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Speaker 2: in protests and the EU waging full scale economic war

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Speaker 2: against America. And then on January twentieth, US aircraft moved

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Speaker 2: into the Arctic. And then all of a sudden January

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Speaker 2: twenty first, in DeVos, Trump rules out force in tariffs.

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Speaker 2: Crisis averted. Apparently peace was mediated in a single meeting

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Speaker 2: between the President and the Secretary General of NATO. Now,

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Speaker 2: there were reports of the United States receiving greater basing

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Speaker 2: rights access to some of Greenland's natural resources, but nothing's

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Speaker 2: really been confirmed. It was a framework, that's the new

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Speaker 2: word of the day, like affordability. It's framework. And then

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Speaker 2: it's barely been mentioned since. So maybe all of this

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Speaker 2: is tied together. Maybe Venezuela was a deal. You know,

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Speaker 2: we've put we put our almost all of our naval

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Speaker 2: assets in there. The Venezuelans, including Darcy Rodriguez, the current

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Speaker 2: now president, sat down with some CIA covert operatives and said, hey, hey, listen,

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Speaker 2: I'll help handle from Maduro and let's make a deal.

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Speaker 2: And President thought to himself, this is what I wanted

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Speaker 2: all along. I never really wanted to invade. I didn't

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Speaker 2: want to put my soldiers at risk. I didn't want

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Speaker 2: to do anything. Let's make a deal. We got the oil.

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Speaker 2: We'll let you stay in place for a while. Now.

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Speaker 2: I'm sure we still have CIA covert operatives in Venezuela,

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Speaker 2: and eventually Rodriguez will be replaced and there will be

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Speaker 2: free and fair elections somewhere down the road in Venezuela.

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Speaker 2: But we showed the world anyway, don't mess with us

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Speaker 2: because we can just pluck somebody out of nowhere. Is

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Speaker 2: that really what happened. Now, when we get back, let's

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Speaker 2: think about Greenland. Hang tight, I'll be right.

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Speaker 3: Back the night.

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Speaker 2: Michael Brown joins me here, the former FEMA director of

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Speaker 2: talk show.

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Speaker 3: Host Michael Brown.

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Speaker 1: Brownie, no, Brownie, You're doing a heck of a job

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Speaker 1: the Weekend with Michael Brown.

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Speaker 2: You're listening to the Weekend with Michael Brown. Glad to

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Speaker 2: have you along for the ride. Today we're doing alternate histories,

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Speaker 2: alternate universes today Venezuela and Greenland. The more I think,

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Speaker 2: the more I kept thinking over the past couple of

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Speaker 2: days about Venezuela. And this is not to take anything

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Speaker 2: away from the US military because obviously they did an

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Speaker 2: excellent job, nobody got hurt, got what they wanted left,

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Speaker 2: and now they're in the Middle East. But what if

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Speaker 2: it wasn't as huge of a military operation as we

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Speaker 2: think it was. What if instead, you know, it took

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Speaker 2: a while for all of that build up to occur.

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Speaker 2: And remember, before the build up occurred, we were blowing

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Speaker 2: the crap out of the drug boats out of the Caribbean.

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Speaker 2: We were just blowing the boom and they just fly everywhere.

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Speaker 2: So we were showing our willingness to use military assets

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Speaker 2: to stop the flow of drugs. And then we send

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Speaker 2: you know, aircraft carriers and fighter jets and everything else

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Speaker 2: down in the Caribbean, and we you know, we park

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Speaker 2: off the coast of Caracas, the coast of Venezuela. And

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Speaker 2: at the same time, we have diplomatic channels and we

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Speaker 2: have covert secret channels through the CIA, working with elements

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Speaker 2: other than Maduro, like Rodriguez who became the president. And

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Speaker 2: there's been there's been no uprising, so it wasn't like

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Speaker 2: we could stir up the population to do anything. So

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Speaker 2: how can we effectuate a change get what we really want,

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Speaker 2: which is their oil? And to get American and international

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Speaker 2: multinational companies back into Venezuela and eventually, over time, get

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Speaker 2: regime change, but without the use of military, So maybe

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Speaker 2: a lot of that. I'm sure there were some you know,

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Speaker 2: bombs dropped and there's some real explod but everybody knew

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Speaker 2: it advance. This is part of the script, and Rodriguez

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Speaker 2: just told everybody within her sphere of influence just stand down,

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Speaker 2: let them do what they're gonna do. We're gonna trow

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Speaker 2: over of Maduro and we're going to take control. Now

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Speaker 2: they're being fooled because we do eventually want to rid her,

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Speaker 2: but we'll do that over time. We don't have to

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Speaker 2: do it today. And the money from the oil sales

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Speaker 2: is going back to the Venezuelans, and of course we're

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Speaker 2: going to monitor that and some of the elites in

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Speaker 2: Venezuela will make more money, but some of that money

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Speaker 2: is designed and we're going to make sure it gets

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Speaker 2: to the people so that they can start building their

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Speaker 2: economy back up again. Is a win win. And then

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Speaker 2: as the people start to get food, housing, stable power, transportation,

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Speaker 2: everything they need, and that becomes a stable economy, then

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Speaker 2: you can do the regime change, and you don't have

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Speaker 2: fire bullet. You actually have a free election. You'd have

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Speaker 2: an election just like Maduro did, except instead of a

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Speaker 2: fake election where you lose and just declare yourself president. Anyway,

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Speaker 2: you could have a real election. Rodriguez would lose and

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Speaker 2: she would know she has to leave, or we'll take you,

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Speaker 2: just like we took Maduro. And what to follow. That's

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Speaker 2: tied to Greenland, because as soon as that happens, and

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Speaker 2: since shock waves across the world, Trump says this something

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Speaker 2: to the effect, we want Greenland, and we can either

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Speaker 2: do it the easy way or the hard way. And

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Speaker 2: now what does that say to the rest of the world, Oh,

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Speaker 2: we know how they do it the hard way. And

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Speaker 2: look what they did. They just snatched the president of

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Speaker 2: the country out of the middle of the military base.

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Speaker 2: So I think we might be making a mistake about

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Speaker 2: a mistake about Greenland if we believe that Greenland is

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Speaker 2: really about Greenland. Well, if there's an alternate thing going

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Speaker 2: on over there too, because we are told that this

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Speaker 2: is a Now remember first it was going to be

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Speaker 2: we'll do it the easy way of the hard way,

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Speaker 2: and then it's that's the starting point, and then it

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Speaker 2: starts getting, you know, reeled in a little bit, and

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Speaker 2: now we're told, we just have a diplomatic spat, we

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Speaker 2: have a real estate obsession, we have a chaotic throwback

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Speaker 2: to nineteenth century imperialism, and the press being the idiots

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Speaker 2: that they are. It has a spectacle. Commentators are debating

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Speaker 2: about whether Trump is really serious or simply trolling US.

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Speaker 2: Europeans they get what they want because they're expressing outrage

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Speaker 2: at the affront to their sovereignty. They know they can't

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Speaker 2: do anything without us. The whole affair is kind of

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Speaker 2: framed as noise. It's eccentric, it's embarrassing, it's ultimately inconsequential,

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Speaker 2: and that framings really comfortable and probably wrong. The conventional

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Speaker 2: reading of the whole Greenland story is diplomatic incompetence in

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Speaker 2: real time. That's the conventional story. Trump threatens force, gets rebuffed,

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Speaker 2: He then escalates, gets rebuffed in then he reached retreats

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Speaker 2: to the language of a purchase, and all of the

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Speaker 2: talking heads around the world shake their heads like what

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Speaker 2: is going on here? And the Europeans get ticked off

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Speaker 2: because they're just bewildered. We thought you were our ally

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Speaker 2: and now you want to take over one of our countries.

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Speaker 2: So what looks like flailing is maybe just classic Trump

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Speaker 2: style negotiations sequence. You open with an outrageous demand, precisely

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Speaker 2: so your real demand seems very reasonable by comparison. He

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Speaker 2: goes like this signal that you're going to take it

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Speaker 2: the easy way or the hard way. We're going to

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Speaker 2: take it over. Denmark gets pissed off. They mentioned force.

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Speaker 2: Denmark recoils. They insist on force loudly, repeatedly. They reach

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Speaker 2: peak indignation. We can't believe that one of our allies

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Speaker 2: is acting like this. And then other European allies come

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Speaker 2: to Denmark's side, and then they pivot a purchase offer

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Speaker 2: that might eliminate Denmark's into national debt, which is one

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Speaker 2: hundred and forty two billion dollars and nearly doubles Greenland's

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Speaker 2: GDP approximate four hundred and fifty billion dollars. And suddenly

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Speaker 2: the questions no longer how dare you? But well, wait

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Speaker 2: a minute, okay, let's talk about how much the forceful rhetoric.

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Speaker 2: The demand was never the plan, that was just the anchor,

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Speaker 2: that was just the starting point. Denmark is no longer

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Speaker 2: defending sovereignty against an imperial aggressor. Denmark is now evaluating

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Speaker 2: a financial proposition. The frame has moved now the math

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Speaker 2: really isn't absurd. Now they're still don't get me wrong,

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Speaker 2: in real time today as that we're broadcasting live on Saturday,

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Speaker 2: February seven. Greenlanders are still up in arms and they

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Speaker 2: don't want anything to happen. But there's really no money

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Speaker 2: discussions yet. What is actually underway is discussion about money.

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Speaker 2: The minerals alone in Greenland are worth multiples of the

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Speaker 2: urch price. Those fifty fifty seven thousand people that live

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Speaker 2: there could become millionaires in paper. Denmark gets rid of

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Speaker 2: a fiscal dependent they erase their debt. The United States

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Speaker 2: secures the rare earth supply chain from the military of

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Speaker 2: the twenty thirties. What is actually underway is a supply

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Speaker 2: chain annexation dressed in the costume of territorial acquisition. The

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Speaker 2: target's not the island. The target is is two geological

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Speaker 2: formations in southern Greenland to then filled and tambreeze that

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Speaker 2: contain the heavy rare earth elements without which no advanced

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Speaker 2: weapons systems can be built. Dysprosium I think is the

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Speaker 2: way you pronounce it terbium names that really don't mean

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Speaker 2: anything to me, but everything to the Pentagon. These elements

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Speaker 2: are irreplaceable in the actuators of F thirty five fighters,

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Speaker 2: the guidance fins of precisions, the sonar arrays of Virginia

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Speaker 2: class submarines, the permanent magnets of every electric vehicle motor.

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Speaker 2: China controls over ninety percent of global processing. Of those

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Speaker 2: two minerals, we control almost none. So perhaps the purchase

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Speaker 2: of Greenland is not a land deal. It's simply an

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Speaker 2: attempt to break a choke hold. This year, prediction markets,

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Speaker 2: poly market and others, they become the closest thing that

430
00:26:29,880 --> 00:26:33,679
Speaker 2: we have to honest price signals about geopolitical risk, and

431
00:26:33,800 --> 00:26:37,800
Speaker 2: right now they're telling a couple of different stories. Calshi,

432
00:26:38,160 --> 00:26:42,320
Speaker 2: the US regulated exchange price is the probability of American

433
00:26:42,400 --> 00:26:45,320
Speaker 2: acquisition of Greenland. That's probably changed over the past couple

434
00:26:45,359 --> 00:26:48,359
Speaker 2: of days, but it was around forty two percent. Poly Market,

435
00:26:48,359 --> 00:26:51,920
Speaker 2: which is a more decentralized platform and it's really kind

436
00:26:51,920 --> 00:26:56,920
Speaker 2: of driven by cryptonatives and offshore speculators, it priced an

437
00:26:56,960 --> 00:27:01,800
Speaker 2: actual acquisition of Greenland, and only fifteen to twenty now

438
00:27:01,840 --> 00:27:05,280
Speaker 2: that's not market inefficiency. That's more of a disagreement about

439
00:27:05,320 --> 00:27:09,600
Speaker 2: just the nature of power. So there's a twenty point

440
00:27:09,640 --> 00:27:12,919
Speaker 2: spread between those markets. That might be the most important

441
00:27:12,960 --> 00:27:15,840
Speaker 2: signal in the world right now. If the poly market

442
00:27:15,920 --> 00:27:18,240
Speaker 2: moves up to meet the CALCI market, it means the

443
00:27:18,240 --> 00:27:21,800
Speaker 2: global smart money has accepted that the United States will

444
00:27:21,840 --> 00:27:25,080
Speaker 2: break international law to secure the Arctic flank. But it

445
00:27:25,119 --> 00:27:29,560
Speaker 2: hasn't moved there yet. Now there is precedent for such acceptance.

446
00:27:30,920 --> 00:27:33,960
Speaker 2: A couple of weeks ago, a trader before all this

447
00:27:34,160 --> 00:27:37,359
Speaker 2: occurred in Venezuela, a trader placed a thirty two thousand

448
00:27:37,440 --> 00:27:41,320
Speaker 2: dollars bet on the aster of Venezuelan President Maduro, and

449
00:27:41,359 --> 00:27:46,200
Speaker 2: he netted over four hundred thousand dollars when they captured him.

450
00:27:46,480 --> 00:27:50,120
Speaker 2: That's the Maduro effect. Well, you can recalibrate that risk

451
00:27:50,160 --> 00:27:54,320
Speaker 2: appetite across every geopolitical market. Traders are no longer pricing

452
00:27:54,320 --> 00:27:59,520
Speaker 2: diplomatic negotiations. They're pricing hostile takeovers. So what's really going

453
00:27:59,520 --> 00:28:01,840
Speaker 2: on in green Lynda? Because if we're not really going

454
00:28:01,880 --> 00:28:04,160
Speaker 2: to just come in and you know, take it over

455
00:28:04,200 --> 00:28:09,640
Speaker 2: by you know the hard way, there are separate. They're

456
00:28:09,640 --> 00:28:12,720
Speaker 2: not separate, but there are three different stories, three different fronts.

457
00:28:13,119 --> 00:28:16,600
Speaker 2: It's probably the way to put it. There's the resource front,

458
00:28:17,119 --> 00:28:21,120
Speaker 2: the economic front, and the kinetic front. So let's walk

459
00:28:21,119 --> 00:28:23,960
Speaker 2: through those three quickly when I get back, because I

460
00:28:23,960 --> 00:28:27,879
Speaker 2: think this ties back to what we did in Venezuela.

461
00:28:28,240 --> 00:28:34,600
Speaker 2: It's about securing and protecting America's interests first. I'll be

462
00:28:34,680 --> 00:28:43,000
Speaker 2: right back. Welcome back to the weekend with Michael Brown.

463
00:28:43,040 --> 00:28:45,240
Speaker 2: Glad to have you with me. We're talking about Venezuela

464
00:28:45,280 --> 00:28:47,680
Speaker 2: and Greenland and how these are both tied together, and

465
00:28:47,720 --> 00:28:53,840
Speaker 2: they're both great examples of what America First means. To Trump,

466
00:28:54,840 --> 00:28:59,120
Speaker 2: it's not necessarily isolationist. Everybody thinks America First. I think

467
00:28:59,160 --> 00:29:02,760
Speaker 2: because of Lynn America First movement trying to keep us

468
00:29:02,760 --> 00:29:05,200
Speaker 2: out of, you know, world wars. Everybody thinks that means

469
00:29:05,240 --> 00:29:07,040
Speaker 2: we're going to be isolationists, We're not going to do

470
00:29:07,080 --> 00:29:10,400
Speaker 2: anything internationally. And to Trump, it means we're going to

471
00:29:10,440 --> 00:29:15,600
Speaker 2: secure America's interests first, whether those are domestic or international,

472
00:29:16,600 --> 00:29:18,640
Speaker 2: and so he's done that. In Venezuela, it was in

473
00:29:18,720 --> 00:29:22,600
Speaker 2: our interest. Between United States and Venezuela, we had the

474
00:29:22,680 --> 00:29:25,640
Speaker 2: largest deposits of oil of anybody in the world. And

475
00:29:25,720 --> 00:29:31,080
Speaker 2: it was in our interest to quit allowing Venezuela to

476
00:29:31,200 --> 00:29:36,320
Speaker 2: feed that asset to our number one adversary, China. And

477
00:29:36,360 --> 00:29:39,840
Speaker 2: there's also the added benefit that it kind of puts

478
00:29:39,880 --> 00:29:42,880
Speaker 2: Cubana early bad spot and might eventually lead to regime

479
00:29:42,960 --> 00:29:47,720
Speaker 2: change in Cuba. But now American and multinational oil and

480
00:29:47,760 --> 00:29:52,000
Speaker 2: gas companies can move back into Venezuela. We get that oil,

481
00:29:52,520 --> 00:29:55,280
Speaker 2: we also sell that on the open market, and China

482
00:29:55,360 --> 00:29:59,080
Speaker 2: now has to pay market prices for that oil and

483
00:29:59,160 --> 00:30:02,240
Speaker 2: not the discount that the communist regime was selling to

484
00:30:02,280 --> 00:30:06,880
Speaker 2: the communists in China. That serves our interests and it

485
00:30:07,000 --> 00:30:13,040
Speaker 2: makes China's economy even more precarious than it is today.

486
00:30:13,760 --> 00:30:18,160
Speaker 2: So I put this in three tranches. There's the resource front.

487
00:30:18,360 --> 00:30:23,520
Speaker 2: The resource front, what Trump's doing is he's securing mineral

488
00:30:23,560 --> 00:30:27,400
Speaker 2: inputs for the military of the future. And I would

489
00:30:27,440 --> 00:30:31,040
Speaker 2: also argue for the industry of the future, whether that's

490
00:30:31,120 --> 00:30:34,320
Speaker 2: technology in the military or technology in the private sector.

491
00:30:35,040 --> 00:30:38,880
Speaker 2: And then there's the economic front. When you announced tariffs

492
00:30:38,880 --> 00:30:41,320
Speaker 2: against Denmark, France, Germany, the UK and all these other

493
00:30:41,360 --> 00:30:46,880
Speaker 2: European nations, he's not being protectionist. What those really are

494
00:30:48,440 --> 00:30:54,320
Speaker 2: our precision guided economic strikes against political dissenters. There's still

495
00:30:54,360 --> 00:30:59,440
Speaker 2: our allies, but what are they doing, like in I

496
00:30:59,440 --> 00:31:02,560
Speaker 2: mean the war when Ukraine continues. Why does the war

497
00:31:02,600 --> 00:31:05,760
Speaker 2: in Ukraine really continue? Well, part of it is putin,

498
00:31:06,280 --> 00:31:09,640
Speaker 2: but part of it is because the Europeans don't really

499
00:31:09,680 --> 00:31:12,920
Speaker 2: want to step up and give the Ukrainians what they need.

500
00:31:12,960 --> 00:31:16,400
Speaker 2: They want us to do that, and Trump's like, it's

501
00:31:16,440 --> 00:31:19,640
Speaker 2: your continent, you need to do that, So I'm gonna

502
00:31:19,640 --> 00:31:22,680
Speaker 2: slap these tariffs on you. Well, what happens when you

503
00:31:22,760 --> 00:31:26,960
Speaker 2: do that? Well, there was a thirty one billion pound

504
00:31:27,280 --> 00:31:31,960
Speaker 2: deal between Microsoft and the United States and the United

505
00:31:32,040 --> 00:31:37,200
Speaker 2: Kingdom called the Tech Prosperity Deal. There was Google's R

506
00:31:37,240 --> 00:31:40,080
Speaker 2: and D investment in Europe. All of those have been

507
00:31:40,120 --> 00:31:45,000
Speaker 2: suspended indefinitely because of the tariffs. So what message does

508
00:31:45,040 --> 00:31:49,680
Speaker 2: that deliver? You need Europe, You need to align with

509
00:31:50,040 --> 00:31:55,640
Speaker 2: our geopolitical objectives. And that's the price of American capital

510
00:31:55,880 --> 00:32:01,680
Speaker 2: and American investment. Again, aligning America first interests and telling

511
00:32:01,720 --> 00:32:04,840
Speaker 2: our allies we're tired of carrying the load and we're

512
00:32:04,840 --> 00:32:06,880
Speaker 2: going to do what we need to do. To tell

513
00:32:06,920 --> 00:32:09,000
Speaker 2: you you need to drop to your knees and you

514
00:32:09,080 --> 00:32:12,240
Speaker 2: need to understand that we're not going to continue to

515
00:32:12,280 --> 00:32:14,640
Speaker 2: do this all the time, or if we are, it's

516
00:32:14,640 --> 00:32:18,920
Speaker 2: going to cost you. I think it's brilliant. And then

517
00:32:18,920 --> 00:32:21,920
Speaker 2: there's the kinetic front. So all the diplomats, you know,

518
00:32:22,080 --> 00:32:27,160
Speaker 2: argue over tariffs, Russian vessels drag anchors across the Baltic

519
00:32:27,680 --> 00:32:33,680
Speaker 2: to cut telecommunications cables. The cargo ship Fitburg, which was

520
00:32:33,720 --> 00:32:36,640
Speaker 2: seized by the finishing the Estonian authorities, is part of

521
00:32:36,640 --> 00:32:41,120
Speaker 2: this shadow fleet. Vessels with really opaque ownership that operate

522
00:32:41,240 --> 00:32:44,400
Speaker 2: below the threshold of open war. Those are not accidents.

523
00:32:45,000 --> 00:32:49,720
Speaker 2: They are shaping operations, They're mapping vulnerabilities. They're demonstrating Russia's

524
00:32:49,720 --> 00:32:54,040
Speaker 2: capacities to sever the digital infrastructure that binds the Western

525
00:32:54,080 --> 00:32:59,400
Speaker 2: civilization together. And Trump saying this is what happens. Look,

526
00:32:59,840 --> 00:33:02,120
Speaker 2: you have a threat here and you've got to step

527
00:33:02,200 --> 00:33:05,120
Speaker 2: up to this front. So I think a lot of

528
00:33:05,280 --> 00:33:08,720
Speaker 2: a lot of us, me included, at times, just sees chaos.

529
00:33:09,600 --> 00:33:13,600
Speaker 2: But when you dig into it, it's really the intelligence

530
00:33:13,680 --> 00:33:21,560
Speaker 2: reality is actually coherence, resource acquisition, economic coercion, kinetic preparation,

531
00:33:22,320 --> 00:33:26,959
Speaker 2: all operating together at the same time. And what that

532
00:33:27,120 --> 00:33:34,280
Speaker 2: does is that says to our adversaries particularly Russia our adversary,

533
00:33:35,120 --> 00:33:38,880
Speaker 2: Chinese Communist Party. Yeah, we don't really want to engage

534
00:33:38,880 --> 00:33:43,000
Speaker 2: in war. We have other we have other interests, and

535
00:33:43,160 --> 00:33:47,200
Speaker 2: all those other interests, if we pursue those, makes us

536
00:33:47,600 --> 00:33:53,040
Speaker 2: both economically and militarily stronger. So don't screw with us.

537
00:33:53,400 --> 00:33:56,960
Speaker 2: Don't mess with us. We're doing this, and it says

538
00:33:56,960 --> 00:34:01,600
Speaker 2: to the Europeans that you know this rules based order. Yeah,

539
00:34:01,840 --> 00:34:06,200
Speaker 2: we understand the rules based order, and you always invoke

540
00:34:06,280 --> 00:34:13,640
Speaker 2: the rules based order, international law, sovereignty and your invocation

541
00:34:13,760 --> 00:34:17,719
Speaker 2: of those things may be emotionally satisfying to you, but

542
00:34:17,760 --> 00:34:21,839
Speaker 2: strategically they're meaningless right now because our adversaries they don't

543
00:34:21,880 --> 00:34:26,720
Speaker 2: care about the rules based order. They care about power

544
00:34:26,840 --> 00:34:30,839
Speaker 2: and dominance. You know, international law really only functions among

545
00:34:30,920 --> 00:34:33,319
Speaker 2: those people that agree to be constrained by international law.

546
00:34:34,120 --> 00:34:37,320
Speaker 2: So it assumes a mutual understanding of legitimacy, a shared

547
00:34:37,400 --> 00:34:41,200
Speaker 2: framework of rules. Trump is establishing a new framework of

548
00:34:41,320 --> 00:34:47,040
Speaker 2: rules that says, for example, like to Carney in Canada, Oh,

549
00:34:47,080 --> 00:34:50,799
Speaker 2: you would to make deals with communists China. Huh, Well

550
00:34:50,840 --> 00:34:53,520
Speaker 2: then we're gonna tear if autos and oil and everything else.

551
00:34:53,880 --> 00:34:59,160
Speaker 2: You don't mess with us, you need us and you're

552
00:34:59,200 --> 00:35:02,200
Speaker 2: a foolish if you think that making a deal with

553
00:35:02,280 --> 00:35:06,120
Speaker 2: the Chinese Communist Party in Jigenping is really to your advantage.

554
00:35:07,280 --> 00:35:09,720
Speaker 2: So if you want to make a deal, okay, fine,

555
00:35:10,560 --> 00:35:13,680
Speaker 2: but it better be a deal that doesn't damage us.

556
00:35:14,760 --> 00:35:18,560
Speaker 2: We decided that securing rare earth supply chains is more

557
00:35:18,600 --> 00:35:23,080
Speaker 2: important than maintaining all the nicesties of post war settlement

558
00:35:23,120 --> 00:35:28,040
Speaker 2: with Europe. European leaders, okay, they can invoke the norms,

559
00:35:28,040 --> 00:35:31,440
Speaker 2: but they can't enforce the norms. They need us to

560
00:35:31,520 --> 00:35:34,520
Speaker 2: do that, and I think Trump is teaching them slowly

561
00:35:34,560 --> 00:35:37,440
Speaker 2: but surely that what we're doing is we're just annexing

562
00:35:37,480 --> 00:35:42,080
Speaker 2: a supply chain. Europe's being coerced into alignment. Russia is

563
00:35:42,120 --> 00:35:46,160
Speaker 2: probing that infrastructure that holds our lines together. Now, I

564
00:35:46,200 --> 00:35:50,720
Speaker 2: know the public is fragmented across information silos that prevent

565
00:35:51,320 --> 00:35:54,239
Speaker 2: kind of understanding this in a larger prediction, in a

566
00:35:54,719 --> 00:35:58,400
Speaker 2: larger model. I'm trying to give you a larger model

567
00:35:58,840 --> 00:36:03,960
Speaker 2: to see the larger picture. So when you hear America first,

568
00:36:04,560 --> 00:36:08,520
Speaker 2: many people think, oh, isolationism, and then you look at

569
00:36:08,880 --> 00:36:11,600
Speaker 2: what happened in Venezuela or Greenland and you think, well,

570
00:36:11,600 --> 00:36:16,680
Speaker 2: that's not isolationists. That's like international bullying. No, that was

571
00:36:16,719 --> 00:36:19,759
Speaker 2: just the starting point, that was getting everybody's attention. And

572
00:36:19,800 --> 00:36:22,680
Speaker 2: then once you get everybody's attention, then you start going

573
00:36:22,680 --> 00:36:27,080
Speaker 2: after what you're really after, which are we need We

574
00:36:27,160 --> 00:36:32,040
Speaker 2: need supply chains, we need economic cooperation, and we need

575
00:36:32,080 --> 00:36:36,880
Speaker 2: to weaken our adversaries and do so not kinetically but

576
00:36:37,000 --> 00:36:43,480
Speaker 2: economically in many ways. As despite all of the noise

577
00:36:43,640 --> 00:36:47,440
Speaker 2: around what Trump does, I think it's brilliant. It's a

578
00:36:47,520 --> 00:36:51,080
Speaker 2: realignment of America's first interest. I'll be right back