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Speaker 1: This is America's Trucking Network with Kevin Gordon.

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Speaker 2: Welcome aboard, Thanks for tuning in on this Friday morning.

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Speaker 2: We've got to start off with an alert from FMCSA.

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Speaker 3: This is incredible. You know, a few weeks.

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Speaker 2: Ago, we had Dave Hatter, who is the regions the

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Speaker 2: Greater Cincinnati Northern Kentucky actually the regional guy that is

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Speaker 2: a cybersecurity expert, and talking about some of the fraudulent

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Speaker 2: emails and some of the stuff, because you know, what

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Speaker 2: we're seeing here recently is a lot of fake pickups,

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Speaker 2: fake invoices and so on, and where loads are actually

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Speaker 2: being stolen because it's gone out and it appears as

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Speaker 2: though a legitimate company is picking up a load, but

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Speaker 2: they're actually stealing it. So we talked about that, but

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Speaker 2: this one is again something that we have to be

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Speaker 2: aware of. Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration is issued an

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Speaker 2: alert for motor carriers to be wary of fake emails

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Speaker 2: pretending to be from the agency or Department of Transportation.

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Speaker 2: FMCSA said motor carriers are being targeted by an aggressive

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Speaker 2: new phishing operation. Now a phishing operation for people that

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Speaker 2: may not be familiar with that is a situation where

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Speaker 2: somebody fraudulently will send out an email trying to get

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Speaker 2: you to open it, and then once you open it,

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Speaker 2: then you click on something and then boom, you're open

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Speaker 2: to all kinds of viruses and them getting into your

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Speaker 2: computer and so on. So again, these fishing things where

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Speaker 2: they go out and send certain items out there just

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Speaker 2: to get your attention, and the scarier they are, the

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Speaker 2: more likely you are to open that. And that's one

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Speaker 2: of the things that FMCSA is worried about again, phishing

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Speaker 2: expedition to steal sensitive of information or demand illegal payments

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Speaker 2: while pretending in emails to represent DOOT or FMCSA officials.

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Speaker 2: These emails, and this is a quote from their page,

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Speaker 2: these emails often contain professional looking documents and legitimate looking links,

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Speaker 2: but they are fake and designed to trick motor carriers

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Speaker 2: and agent the agency ward on January the thirtieth, these

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Speaker 2: emails do not come from us DOT or FMCSA. FMCSA

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Speaker 2: stated they will never request social security numbers, bank account details,

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Speaker 2: or credit card information via unsolicited emails or phone calls.

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Speaker 2: And this is extremely important. Also, whatever subscriptions you apply

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Speaker 2: to or you have or bank accounts that you have.

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Speaker 2: None of these banks will ever ask you for information

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Speaker 2: that they should already have as part of you having

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Speaker 2: an account with them. So if they're asking you to

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Speaker 2: verify this or verify that, this.

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Speaker 3: Goes across the board for.

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Speaker 2: Anything, not just FMCSA, not only for DOT. But sometimes

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Speaker 2: you may get something from the IR that appears to

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Speaker 2: be coming from the IRS, and I'm telling you from

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Speaker 2: personal experience, sometimes these things can be awfully, awfully scary.

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Speaker 3: I got one. I mentioned this a few months ago.

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Speaker 3: I got one that.

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Speaker 2: I received where it said that I had been hacked

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Speaker 2: or something along those lines. And I opened it up

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Speaker 2: and I'm like, wow, I mean, all of the official

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Speaker 2: logos for the company and everything was there, and I

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Speaker 2: darn near almost clicked on it. But then something told

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Speaker 2: me that it may not be right. So I gave

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Speaker 2: Dave Hatter a call. Actually fortunately I was able to

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Speaker 2: get ahold of him real quick, and he said he said,

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Speaker 2: oh no, he said, go here, go here, and I'll

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Speaker 2: tell you know that it was absolutely false, because if

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Speaker 2: I had clicked that open it would it was you know,

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Speaker 2: kind of almost I can't remember what it was, but

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Speaker 2: it was someone with along the lines of maybe some

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Speaker 2: ransomware or something like that, that some money was going

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Speaker 2: to be with taken out of my account immediately if

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Speaker 2: I didn't do something. And it's just incredible and quite honestly,

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Speaker 2: some of the companies that if they're targeting you and

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Speaker 2: they're appearing to represent a company, these companies are quite

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Speaker 2: how should I say stupid?

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Speaker 3: Is that an indelicate thing? Or lazy.

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Speaker 2: Not a non professional whatever you want to call it,

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Speaker 2: Because I actually got off, I got on the phone

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Speaker 2: and I said, look, I'm getting this in my email.

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Speaker 2: You may want to see if you have been hacked,

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Speaker 2: because if your accounts have been hacked and they've gotten

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Speaker 2: a hold of addresses and stuff, and people are maybe

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Speaker 2: falling for this, you may want to be concerned about that. Well,

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Speaker 2: what you need to do is send us an email

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Speaker 2: and somebody will get back in touch with you and

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Speaker 2: one to two business days. And of course this happened

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Speaker 2: on a Friday, right, So I mean this is another one.

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Speaker 2: I mean, this is the one that I've called Dave

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Speaker 2: Hatter about months ago. Was something we easily corrected online.

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Speaker 2: But I received another one that appeared as though it

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Speaker 2: was coming from a bank or a company that I

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Speaker 2: do business with, and it was kind of interesting. But

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Speaker 2: then I called the bank because you know, one of

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Speaker 2: the things you do is you actually call the institution

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Speaker 2: the phone number that you have, go to their website

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Speaker 2: and find the information on any of your account descriptions

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Speaker 2: and stuff like that. They would have a contact phone number.

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Speaker 2: I actually contacted them and said, hey, you know, I

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Speaker 2: want you to be alert of this. You know, oh,

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Speaker 2: well send us an email to this particular department. You

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Speaker 2: can't connect me with that particular department, No, we have to.

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Speaker 2: And it was, you know this robotic crap that you

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Speaker 2: get from people when you call them and says, well,

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Speaker 2: they will get back They will get back to you promptly.

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Speaker 2: Well what do you mean of this? Sac Well, one

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Speaker 2: to two business days. We're going into a weekend. One

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Speaker 2: of two business days means it ain't gonna happen today

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Speaker 2: and probably won't happen Monday or Tuesday next week, and

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Speaker 2: I'll hear something from Wednesday. So how many of these

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Speaker 2: fraudulent things are going to go out in the meantime. Well,

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Speaker 2: that's all we're equipped to do here, and that's all

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Speaker 2: I can tell you. And I'm sorry for your inconvenience,

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Speaker 2: and it's like, oh my god. But anyway, back to

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Speaker 2: the store. Here, did I go off on a tangent there, Yeah,

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Speaker 2: I think I did. FMCSA stated will never request those

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Speaker 2: security numbers, bank accounts and so on. Uh sensitive infor

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Speaker 2: This is a quote from them. If sensitive information is required,

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Speaker 2: you should initiate contact through official FMCSA phone numbers or

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Speaker 2: web portals. FMCSA will never request payment or sensitive information

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Speaker 2: like UCR, which is the Unified Carrier Registration, your pin so,

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Speaker 2: security numbers, employers identification numbers, or bank details through unsolicited messages.

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Speaker 3: The agency said.

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Speaker 2: The fake emails usually contain links that generally connect to

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Speaker 2: suspicious non government website domains lacking the ending. Now again,

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Speaker 2: this is one of those things where if you get

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Speaker 2: the email, well.

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Speaker 3: I'll go off on another tangent here.

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Speaker 2: My wife last week started getting stuff like this, and

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Speaker 2: she got a whole series of them from companies like

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Speaker 2: serious XM or City Bank or Bank of America or

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Speaker 2: where companies that we don't even deal with and we

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Speaker 2: don't have accounts with. So there's one of the suspicious things.

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Speaker 2: But if you put your cursor, I would suggest doing

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Speaker 2: it on your laptop because we were talking about that,

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Speaker 2: and then she went to her phone, and you cannot

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Speaker 2: put a you know, like scroll over the name and

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Speaker 2: we'll give you the information. But if you're on your

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Speaker 2: computer and you put your mouse over that number of

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Speaker 2: the thing, even though it says serious XM or a

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Speaker 2: city bank or you know, whatever the fraudulent thing is,

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Speaker 2: it will pop up and there will be an email

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Speaker 2: address that says something like info at And every one

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Speaker 2: of these down the line that she got within a

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Speaker 2: probably a twelve hour period of time, she must have

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Speaker 2: gotten ten of these things, and every one of them

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Speaker 2: was info at such and such and such and such,

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Speaker 2: and it looked official. Fortunately she didn't open it, so

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Speaker 2: I don't know what the documents looked like on the inside,

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Speaker 2: and we don't know what the documents, but we just

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Speaker 2: knew based on the fact that and in there were

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Speaker 2: some emails that she got that were actually from companies

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Speaker 2: that we deal with, which was kind of disconcerted. Well,

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Speaker 2: you know, kind of catches your attention, but then when

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Speaker 2: you see a whole slew of items that aren't part

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Speaker 2: of that, and it also the message all says the

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Speaker 2: same thing, and the way the message was was scripted,

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Speaker 2: was that you know something that says your name and

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Speaker 2: email address, and it says your account seemed with serious

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Speaker 2: act will be removed today and gives the date or

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Speaker 2: your payment has been bounced back, or your payment has

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Speaker 2: been missed or whatever something along those lines. Well, you know,

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Speaker 2: if you don't deal with those companies, then you know,

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Speaker 2: cut me off from the service, or I'm not sending

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Speaker 2: you a payment anyway.

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Speaker 3: So it's a bogus thing.

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Speaker 2: But if you put your cursor over that cender, it

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Speaker 2: will tell you that the thing is fraudulent. But okay,

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Speaker 2: so again that's kind of we'll pick up more of

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Speaker 2: this coming up. I'm Kevin Gordon, America's Trucking Network, seven

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Speaker 2: hundred WLW I need.

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Speaker 1: This is the racing report on America's Trucking Network on

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Speaker 1: seven hundred wlwf RFK Racings.

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Speaker 4: Ryan Priest battled the cars on the track and to

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Speaker 4: win the weather from coming from the sky came away

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Speaker 4: with his first career NASCAR Cup Series victory, holding off

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Speaker 4: the rest of the field to win the weather delayed

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Speaker 4: cookout clash at Bohma Gray Stadium pre emotional in Victory

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Speaker 4: Lane on Fox.

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Speaker 5: I don't even know what to say, to be honest

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Speaker 5: with you, it's it's been a long road and you

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Speaker 5: know it's.

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Speaker 6: The clash and but man, it's just been years and

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Speaker 6: years of grind Again.

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Speaker 7: I'm just super thankful for Brad Kislowski.

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Speaker 5: Krueger Coca Cola two years ago. I didn't I didn't

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Speaker 5: think I was kind of a job. I thought I

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Speaker 5: was going back to Connecticut.

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Speaker 6: Man, I'm just super super, uh, super emotional.

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Speaker 3: Ray Hall Letterman Land again Racings.

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Speaker 4: Micked Schumacher under went a rookie Oval test Wednesday at

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Speaker 4: Homestead Miami Speedway. This is the first oval Shoemachers raced on.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, it's different, you know.

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Speaker 7: I think the orientation was a bit of a difficulty

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Speaker 7: at the beginning, like kind of knowing what side of

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Speaker 7: the track I'm on, which corn I'm on, uh, and

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Speaker 7: then at the moment after that you kind of get

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Speaker 7: the hang of it, you know.

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Speaker 3: See, it's it's very new to me.

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Speaker 7: So just getting acquainted with with the procedures, getting acquainted

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Speaker 7: with how the car feel essentially on track I do.

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Speaker 5: word in the English language is less convincing than probably.

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Speaker 5: Are you sure we should get matching tattoos on our

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Speaker 5: first date? Sure? We'll probably stay together.

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Speaker 3: Probably, it's been twenty three minutes since I ate. I

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Speaker 3: can probably swim. You should wait thirty minutes?

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Speaker 5: Okay, tell me what to do?

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Speaker 8: Can it ball?

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Speaker 7: Cramp?

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Speaker 3: I have a cramp. I can probably hit the green

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Speaker 3: from here? Probably? Can I get a Mulligan.

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Speaker 6: Ready to go? Hey?

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Speaker 3: Are you sure you're okay to drive? Yeah? I'm pretty sober. Yeah,

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Speaker 3: I'm probably okay.

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Speaker 5: Probably okay? Isn't okay? Especially when it comes to drinking

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Speaker 5: and driving. If you're drinking, call a cab, a car

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Speaker 5: or a friend. Bus driving is drunk driving? A message

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Speaker 5: brought to you by NITSA and AD Council.

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Speaker 8: Are you running for office and have a message you

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Speaker 8: want every voter in your district to hear?

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Speaker 3: Well? That's where his trucking.

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Speaker 2: Network seven hundred WLW. Thanks for being there, certainly appreciated

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Speaker 2: getting back to this particular story. FMCSA Warrens carriers of

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Speaker 2: aggressive fishing scheme. Now, in the previous segment, I was

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Speaker 2: talking about some personal experience that I have had, and

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Speaker 2: then some personal experience that I've that my wife has

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Speaker 2: had over the last couple of weeks. And apparently, what

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Speaker 2: is it, Is it scamuary or something that we're starting

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Speaker 2: to get all these in a particular month. Maybe it's

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Speaker 2: because after the holiday season, with people having gone online

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Speaker 2: and gone to maybe different websites or different items or

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Speaker 2: different areas in order to make purchases online, that some

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Speaker 2: of these places have been hacked or whatever, and they

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Speaker 2: figure they'll shotgun these things out there because you know,

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Speaker 2: when you take into consideration, well, a certain percentage of

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Speaker 2: the population deals with Bank of America, certain groups DoD

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Speaker 2: either do with a city bank, or how many people

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Speaker 2: have this SERIOUSXM different subscriptions and stuff like that. So

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Speaker 2: you send all these out there, and it's phishing, and

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Speaker 2: it's pH phish phishing as opposed to fish. But these

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Speaker 2: are the kind of scams. And as a matter of fact,

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Speaker 2: one of the most notorious phishing expeditions that was done

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Speaker 2: was Leon Panetta, who was in charge of Hillary Clinton's

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Speaker 2: campaign back in twenty sixteen, he actually got a email

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Speaker 2: from somebody that said, your account has been hacked and

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Speaker 2: your password has been affected, so please confirm your password

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Speaker 2: to this account and we will let you know. And

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Speaker 2: here is Leon Panetta, who was head of CI, if

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Speaker 2: I'm not mistaken, he was a secretary of State, a

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Speaker 2: very prominent Democrat, had been a congressman or congressman. He

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Speaker 2: was head of Hillary Clinton's campaign, and he got this

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Speaker 2: phishing expedition email that said, your password may have been compromised.

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Speaker 2: Please inform us of what your password is. And lo

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Speaker 2: and behold, being a member having been part of the CIA,

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Speaker 2: guess what his password was password? And then as a

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Speaker 2: result of that, they were able to hack into, or

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Speaker 2: not hack into, but get into his email account. And

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Speaker 2: that's when all of those emails about Hillary Clinton and

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Speaker 2: some of the nutty stuff that they were doing, and

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Speaker 2: some of the stuff having to do with campaign. That's

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Speaker 2: when they claimed that, oh, all these emails they came

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Speaker 2: to us and they somebody hacked into our system. No,

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Speaker 2: they didn't hack into your system. Your campaign manager opened

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Speaker 2: the door and said, hey, come on in. So anyway,

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Speaker 2: getting back to this, but again, these fishing expeditions that

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Speaker 2: is exactly what they're doing. They're out there, they're throwing

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Speaker 2: that hook out there, and you know for every million

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Speaker 2: ones that they can do if they can get ten

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Speaker 2: thousand people or whatever to sign on to this and

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Speaker 2: they can you know, do the ransomware or hack into

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Speaker 2: their account, steal money from them. Hey, it's a you know,

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Speaker 2: it's a job well done that day. I guess they

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Speaker 2: consider faked. Emails usually contain links that connect with bogus

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Speaker 2: information FMCSA websites and with dot gov for example, uh FMCSA.

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Speaker 3: Dot dot dot gov.

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Speaker 2: Always double check the domain before providing any information. And again,

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Speaker 2: as I mentioned before, you hover over the links to

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Speaker 2: confirm that the actual you are l before clicking. The

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Speaker 2: agency explained, like I said, you can't do this on

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Speaker 2: your phone. So if you get one of these things

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Speaker 2: on your phone, as soon as you can get to

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Speaker 2: your laptop, because if you hover it, like again, if

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Speaker 2: you hover your mouse over that sender's name, it will

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Speaker 2: actually give the actual domain name that that's coming from,

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Speaker 2: and so you will be able to see like the

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Speaker 2: instance or the example with my wife, it said info

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Speaker 2: at such and such and such and such, and the

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Speaker 2: website wasn't any website that was even part of the

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Speaker 2: email that was being sent. So again you've got to

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Speaker 2: do a lot of caution on that. Official FMCSA correspondence

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Speaker 2: almost always uses an email address ending in dot gov

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Speaker 2: in special circumstances such as a customer satisfaction surveys after

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Speaker 2: contacting FMCSA. So if you've initiated the contact with FMCSA

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Speaker 2: or some legitimate organization, at this point, I'm almost saying

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Speaker 2: that I don't know if you really want to agree

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Speaker 2: to doing any kind of a survey because as they

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Speaker 2: point out here, as they said, official correspondence almost always

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Speaker 2: uses an email address ending in gov. But if you

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Speaker 2: do a customer service center, the contact center emails may

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Speaker 2: come with a non goo v address. These surveys request

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Speaker 2: feedback only and will not ask personal payment or account information.

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Speaker 2: But again, when you go on certain sites and they say, well,

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Speaker 2: you know, would you give us a would you spend

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Speaker 2: some time after the phone call or after the email

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Speaker 2: to provide us some information? Is how we and feedback

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Speaker 2: so that we can better serve you in the future.

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Speaker 2: But again, these aren't going to be coming from that agency.

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Speaker 2: It's not going to have a dot gov or dot

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Speaker 2: dot or dot any of those kinds of things. So

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Speaker 2: you know, I'm not sure that you want to do

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Speaker 2: that anyway. Illegalployees targeting trucking FMCSA has outlined a variety

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Speaker 2: of cyber schemes crooks are using the trick people working.

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Speaker 2: By the way, I will be putting this on my

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Speaker 2: Facebook page just so you know.

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Speaker 3: And then anyway, so.

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Speaker 2: Getting back to this, working in trucking industry to obtain

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Speaker 2: confidential personal information and money. Some things to be substance

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Speaker 2: abuse professionals wanting to resolve open violations, or an employer

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Speaker 2: willing to report negative results for tests that don't exist.

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Speaker 2: These scammers try to persuade truckers to share their full name,

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Speaker 2: commercial driver's license numbers, and birth dates.

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Speaker 3: Never never ever.

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Speaker 2: Provide that information to somebody you don't trust, and always

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Speaker 2: if you're getting that email, contact the institution directly off

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Speaker 2: of their contact information. You should have some sort of

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Speaker 2: a card where you should have something in your documentation

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Speaker 2: as to if you have any questions, call this number

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Speaker 2: and this is official documentation, not the crap that you

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Speaker 2: get through the email. Other criminals have impersonated emails as

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Speaker 2: coming from the Safety and Fitness electronic records. They send

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Speaker 2: emails seeking to verify a payment and fuel system linked

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Speaker 2: to a motor carrier slash dot number by telling the

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Speaker 2: email recip to click on fake links.

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Speaker 3: Bogus says.

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Speaker 2: Compliance notice emails that don't end in dot gov have

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Speaker 2: also been sent. Some FMCSA customers have received an email

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Speaker 2: from contact at FMCSA compliant dot info prompting them to

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Speaker 2: take action on updating records now ending in dot info

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Speaker 2: that would not be dot gov. So again, as they're

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Speaker 2: giving these examples and they go in through here and

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Speaker 2: action to take, make sure that you check out my

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Speaker 2: Facebook page. Oh by the way, the Facebook page is

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Speaker 2: cleverly named Kevin Gordon, so you'll be able to find

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Speaker 2: that FMCSA. And by the way, my picture is on there,

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Speaker 2: so i'm, you know, in front of a screen that

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Speaker 2: says americastruck A Network and you'll recognize the ruggedly handsome

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Speaker 2: guy that's there, So yes, that's me. FMCSA has a

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Speaker 2: fraud alerts website with numerous examples of phony emails sent

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Speaker 2: to truckers and motor carriers. Fm CSA's offers the following

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Speaker 2: advice don't open attachments or reply to the sender. Don't

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Speaker 2: click on any suspicious links, hover over the item to

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Speaker 2: reveal the name. As we've talked about before, if you

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Speaker 2: have had any doubts, avoid clicking links and verify all

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Speaker 2: communications directly and report suspicious emails to official FMCSA channels,

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Speaker 2: including contact and they give the phone number one eight

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Speaker 2: hundred eight three two five six six zero. Now I

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Speaker 2: will put that number on my Facebook page. When you

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Speaker 2: go there, you'll be able to see that. Visit Department

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Speaker 2: of Homeland Security, Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agent Agency for

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Speaker 2: information about the online information, learn more about email verification,

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Speaker 2: and they go into check this particular website and so on.

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Speaker 3: File a complaint with.

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Speaker 2: FBI through its IC three site again, and if you're

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Speaker 2: interested in the fraud alerts again, this will be part

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Speaker 2: of my explanation for this story. On my Facebook account

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Speaker 2: FMCSA if you go to their fraud alert page for

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Speaker 2: fraud alerts FMCSA dot dot dot gov slash registration slash

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Speaker 2: fraud hyphen alerts. So again, Forewarned is forearmed. I'm Kevin Gordon,

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Speaker 2: America's Trucking Network seven hundred WLW.

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Speaker 8: Here's your trucking forecast for the try state and the

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Speaker 8: rest of the country and the tries sate overnight, mostly Claudie.

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Speaker 8: The low down to nineteen in which weather advisory and

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Speaker 8: effect from six am to six pm Friday, as we'll

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Speaker 8: see snow Friday, mainly before noon, with one or two

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Speaker 8: inches of snow possible, a high of thirty seven Sunday

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Speaker 8: for Saturday, but colder a high of twenty one, wind

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Speaker 8: chills near zero, then mostly cloudy Sunday. The high year

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Speaker 8: thirty nationally. Snow and wintry precipitation seen in the Great

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Speaker 8: Lakes region due to a clipper system. Fridgier temperatures are

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Speaker 8: back in the northeast of in Atlantic, bringing snow and

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Speaker 8: the potential for snow squalls in the northeast. Meanwhile, above

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Speaker 8: average temperatures will continue out west, especially in the northern plains.

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Speaker 2: Seven hundred WLW. I'm Kevin Gordon is as America's struck

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Speaker 2: A Network. Previous couple of segments we're talking about these fraudlers.

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Speaker 2: The FMCSA is sent out there and if you miss

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Speaker 2: any of that, make sure you hit up that iHeartRadio

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Speaker 2: app brought to you by our friends at Rush Truck

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Speaker 2: Centers and again to reiterate, I am putting this on

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Speaker 2: my Facebook page. I'll have the contact information, phone numbers

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Speaker 2: and that type of thing. So again and again, my

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Speaker 2: email addresses is cleverly named Kevin Gordon. So if you're

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Speaker 2: interested in that story and again, these fraudlers, these people

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Speaker 2: are getting more and more clever, and you know they're

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Speaker 2: always trying to separate you from your wallet.

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Speaker 3: And there's enough.

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Speaker 2: You get enough of that from the federal government, the

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Speaker 2: taxing agencies.

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Speaker 3: You don't need some criminal doing it.

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Speaker 2: So anyway, we did get initial jobless claims report yesterday.

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Speaker 2: It's interesting that with the federal government opening back up

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Speaker 2: that remember when the previous previous Schumer shut down, that

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Speaker 2: a lot of this information wasn't coming out and they

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Speaker 2: were delaying some of these reports. Now the jobs report

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Speaker 2: itself that normally comes out will be delayed till next Wednesday,

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Speaker 2: and then that will be available. Then that should have

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Speaker 2: come out either Thursday or later on today, but it's

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Speaker 2: going to be postponed because of the government shutdown. But

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Speaker 2: this initial jobless claims see, you know, back during the

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Speaker 2: Schumer shutdown, we there were this information was available because

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Speaker 2: various states report their initial jobless claims to a web

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Speaker 2: to the US Department of Labor website which is up

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Speaker 2: there for I guess whoever has access to that, they

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Speaker 2: can look at that. And so a lot of these companies,

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Speaker 2: I think Chase Bank was one of them. Goldman Sachs

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Speaker 2: and City Group were another ones that were actually pulling

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Speaker 2: that information out and reporting that on a weekly basis.

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Speaker 2: So were getting even though the government was shut down

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Speaker 2: and we weren't getting reports directly from the Department of Labor,

435
00:25:06,480 --> 00:25:08,679
Speaker 2: we were getting the official report or we're getting the

436
00:25:08,720 --> 00:25:13,560
Speaker 2: information from these other agencies again, but with a short

437
00:25:13,600 --> 00:25:16,919
Speaker 2: shutdown for the as I call it, the Democrats in

438
00:25:17,000 --> 00:25:22,800
Speaker 2: favor of illegal immigration. This is the shutdown that I'm

439
00:25:22,840 --> 00:25:25,720
Speaker 2: calling it because they build up or they hold up

440
00:25:25,840 --> 00:25:29,439
Speaker 2: of the why the government was shut down. They wanted

441
00:25:29,480 --> 00:25:33,400
Speaker 2: certain concessions as far as DHS cutting back on funding

442
00:25:33,600 --> 00:25:37,119
Speaker 2: and defunding to a certain extent. Ice So I guess

443
00:25:37,280 --> 00:25:42,200
Speaker 2: Democrats support illegal immigration and open bordes. Well we saw

444
00:25:42,200 --> 00:25:43,440
Speaker 2: that during the Biden administration.

445
00:25:43,480 --> 00:25:44,520
Speaker 3: But anyway, the.

446
00:25:44,520 --> 00:25:47,480
Speaker 2: Jobless claims came out, and again looking at some of

447
00:25:47,520 --> 00:25:50,119
Speaker 2: the headlines on when you do the search and the

448
00:25:50,160 --> 00:25:53,000
Speaker 2: different companies that are reporting on them, Actually, these were

449
00:25:53,040 --> 00:25:55,959
Speaker 2: all pretty good in terms of straight up reporting as

450
00:25:55,960 --> 00:26:00,520
Speaker 2: far as what was going on. This is Bloomberg dot

451
00:26:00,560 --> 00:26:04,600
Speaker 2: Com their headline, US job is claims top all estimates

452
00:26:04,640 --> 00:26:08,719
Speaker 2: in week hit by extreme coal trading view US initial

453
00:26:08,800 --> 00:26:15,000
Speaker 2: job as claims rise more than expected. Investing dot Com

454
00:26:15,119 --> 00:26:19,639
Speaker 2: initial job is claims rise exceeding forecasts, Seeking Alpha initial

455
00:26:19,720 --> 00:26:22,919
Speaker 2: jobs claims rise more than expected in past week. And

456
00:26:22,920 --> 00:26:25,720
Speaker 2: then the one from Reuter's that on this page, US

457
00:26:25,800 --> 00:26:30,159
Speaker 2: weekly job is claimed surge, but trend still consistent with

458
00:26:30,320 --> 00:26:34,600
Speaker 2: labor market stability, which is kind of a decent headline,

459
00:26:34,640 --> 00:26:36,399
Speaker 2: which I don't know.

460
00:26:36,880 --> 00:26:38,200
Speaker 3: I'm not holding out any hope.

461
00:26:38,200 --> 00:26:40,359
Speaker 2: I don't think any of these spoon fed regurgitators in

462
00:26:40,359 --> 00:26:43,480
Speaker 2: the mainstream media have like seen the light. The light

463
00:26:43,520 --> 00:26:46,800
Speaker 2: bulb has come on, and you know, taking into consideration

464
00:26:47,160 --> 00:26:50,720
Speaker 2: some of the crappy reporting and the journalistic malpractice that

465
00:26:50,760 --> 00:26:54,239
Speaker 2: they have been performing over the last decade or so

466
00:26:54,520 --> 00:26:59,040
Speaker 2: or more, that maybe they're finally turning the page on that.

467
00:26:59,400 --> 00:27:02,360
Speaker 2: I don't so, but we'll take the good headlines when

468
00:27:02,359 --> 00:27:04,560
Speaker 2: we can get them. Let's look at the Ruyter story,

469
00:27:04,840 --> 00:27:07,800
Speaker 2: US weekly job has claimed surge, but trends still consistent

470
00:27:07,840 --> 00:27:10,960
Speaker 2: with labor mark stability. Now, we had the report yesterday,

471
00:27:11,040 --> 00:27:14,240
Speaker 2: remember ADP that that was kind of an anemic report,

472
00:27:14,560 --> 00:27:17,560
Speaker 2: and some of the comments from the person from EADP,

473
00:27:18,080 --> 00:27:20,919
Speaker 2: their chief economists, was saying, well, this is showing kindable

474
00:27:20,960 --> 00:27:23,240
Speaker 2: weakness in the labor department and so on. And I

475
00:27:23,280 --> 00:27:27,359
Speaker 2: pointed out that not just last week, the Federal Reserve,

476
00:27:27,680 --> 00:27:32,119
Speaker 2: even lion Jerry Powell, said that the labor market was

477
00:27:32,200 --> 00:27:35,480
Speaker 2: strong and stable and didn't show any sign of weakness.

478
00:27:35,520 --> 00:27:40,520
Speaker 2: So again, one week bad report from ADP shouldn't tilt

479
00:27:40,560 --> 00:27:42,600
Speaker 2: that scale in one way or the other. Number of

480
00:27:42,640 --> 00:27:47,080
Speaker 2: Americans filing job new applications for unemployment benefits increased more

481
00:27:47,119 --> 00:27:51,560
Speaker 2: than expected last week, but the underlying trend remained consistent

482
00:27:51,600 --> 00:27:54,520
Speaker 2: with the stable labor market. The biggest rise in weekly

483
00:27:54,600 --> 00:27:57,959
Speaker 2: job has claims in nearly two months reported by the

484
00:27:58,080 --> 00:28:04,680
Speaker 2: Labor Department on Thursday, reflected distortions from snowstorms across much

485
00:28:04,720 --> 00:28:09,800
Speaker 2: of the country, as well as normalization after volatility linked

486
00:28:09,840 --> 00:28:14,520
Speaker 2: to difficulties adjusting the data for seasonal fluctuations around the

487
00:28:14,560 --> 00:28:17,919
Speaker 2: holiday season and at the turn of the year. Now

488
00:28:19,040 --> 00:28:22,720
Speaker 2: it's kind of interesting, I mean, apparently this was the

489
00:28:22,760 --> 00:28:25,960
Speaker 2: first time in history that we've had a holiday season

490
00:28:26,880 --> 00:28:29,639
Speaker 2: and a new year that happened all at the same

491
00:28:29,720 --> 00:28:33,359
Speaker 2: period of time. I guess Christmas has never fallen a

492
00:28:33,400 --> 00:28:38,160
Speaker 2: week before the New year in years past. So all

493
00:28:38,160 --> 00:28:42,920
Speaker 2: of these fluctuations, well were surprised to everybody. I mean,

494
00:28:43,080 --> 00:28:45,880
Speaker 2: doesn't this happen every year? And don't you think that

495
00:28:46,040 --> 00:28:48,360
Speaker 2: at some point in time you would kind of look

496
00:28:48,400 --> 00:28:50,480
Speaker 2: at the trends of that and see that over time

497
00:28:50,520 --> 00:28:52,960
Speaker 2: and kind of build that into your model in terms

498
00:28:53,000 --> 00:28:55,840
Speaker 2: of what you're discussing or what you're putting out there.

499
00:28:56,040 --> 00:28:59,240
Speaker 2: I just find it interesting some of these phrases difficulties

500
00:28:59,240 --> 00:29:03,479
Speaker 2: adjusting the day for seasonal fluctuations around the holiday season

501
00:29:03,880 --> 00:29:08,000
Speaker 2: and of course the new year. Carl Weinberg, chief economists

502
00:29:08,000 --> 00:29:11,720
Speaker 2: at High Frequency Economics, There is no sign of the

503
00:29:11,880 --> 00:29:14,840
Speaker 2: kind of layoffs we expect to see in a weakening

504
00:29:15,000 --> 00:29:19,200
Speaker 2: labor market during the early days of a recession. The

505
00:29:19,360 --> 00:29:23,320
Speaker 2: level of claims is just very low. Claims are well

506
00:29:23,360 --> 00:29:27,120
Speaker 2: within the recent range over the last two years. We

507
00:29:27,160 --> 00:29:30,360
Speaker 2: have stressed that on this program over the entire year,

508
00:29:30,440 --> 00:29:33,240
Speaker 2: every time the jobles claims and on a weekly basis,

509
00:29:33,240 --> 00:29:36,480
Speaker 2: we talk about that because that is the headline. That

510
00:29:36,640 --> 00:29:39,800
Speaker 2: is the thing, and as I stress, the big thing.

511
00:29:40,040 --> 00:29:43,600
Speaker 2: According to the American Transportation Research Institute, number one item

512
00:29:43,720 --> 00:29:45,720
Speaker 2: on your list in terms of things that you're most

513
00:29:45,800 --> 00:29:48,720
Speaker 2: concerned about is the economy. And one of the big

514
00:29:48,720 --> 00:29:52,280
Speaker 2: components of the economy are these initial jobless claims. So

515
00:29:52,440 --> 00:29:55,480
Speaker 2: on a weekly basis, I talk about those, talk about

516
00:29:55,800 --> 00:29:58,400
Speaker 2: you know, if they're acting as though that it's a

517
00:29:58,400 --> 00:30:01,640
Speaker 2: big deal, trying to pull that into historical perspective in

518
00:30:01,720 --> 00:30:04,280
Speaker 2: terms of, well, you know, this is one week, but

519
00:30:04,360 --> 00:30:06,200
Speaker 2: look at the trend. Look at the trend over the

520
00:30:06,280 --> 00:30:09,320
Speaker 2: last four weeks that hasn't been up. Some of the

521
00:30:09,360 --> 00:30:12,040
Speaker 2: comments that talk about that, well, yeah, this is just

522
00:30:12,080 --> 00:30:14,600
Speaker 2: a blip on the radar screen. But everybody, like I'm

523
00:30:14,640 --> 00:30:16,560
Speaker 2: saying that, if you look at a lot of people,

524
00:30:16,600 --> 00:30:20,160
Speaker 2: the younger people and even older people now are starting

525
00:30:20,160 --> 00:30:23,080
Speaker 2: to just rely on headlines when they're scrolling through their

526
00:30:23,080 --> 00:30:26,160
Speaker 2: phones and they're looking at headlines and say, oh, unemployment's up,

527
00:30:26,240 --> 00:30:28,160
Speaker 2: Oh my god, the world's coming to an end, and

528
00:30:28,200 --> 00:30:31,160
Speaker 2: all this sort of stuff. Well, again, as we do

529
00:30:31,240 --> 00:30:33,960
Speaker 2: on this program, you need to dig into the story itself.

530
00:30:34,160 --> 00:30:37,280
Speaker 2: And as I've said before, a lot of times you

531
00:30:37,520 --> 00:30:40,000
Speaker 2: read through the story and then you say, where the

532
00:30:40,080 --> 00:30:43,239
Speaker 2: hell they come up with that headline? So anyway, and

533
00:30:43,320 --> 00:30:45,040
Speaker 2: a lot of times they pick out the worst part

534
00:30:45,160 --> 00:30:47,239
Speaker 2: of the story and that's what they lead with as

535
00:30:47,280 --> 00:30:50,840
Speaker 2: far as there and their headline is concerned. Now getting

536
00:30:50,880 --> 00:30:53,320
Speaker 2: back to this talk about the level of claims is

537
00:30:53,480 --> 00:30:56,840
Speaker 2: just very low. Claims are well within the recent range

538
00:30:56,920 --> 00:31:00,960
Speaker 2: over the last two years. Actually that goes back even

539
00:31:01,040 --> 00:31:03,600
Speaker 2: more than two years. It goes back to about four

540
00:31:03,680 --> 00:31:07,240
Speaker 2: or five years where the initial jobless claims they talk

541
00:31:07,280 --> 00:31:10,400
Speaker 2: about if they are between two hundred and ten thousand

542
00:31:10,640 --> 00:31:15,200
Speaker 2: and two hundred and fifty thousand, that is the reasonable range.

543
00:31:15,320 --> 00:31:17,560
Speaker 2: And over the last three weeks or so, we have

544
00:31:17,640 --> 00:31:20,440
Speaker 2: actually had initial jobless claims that have come in that

545
00:31:20,480 --> 00:31:23,400
Speaker 2: have been below that two hundred and ten thousand, in

546
00:31:23,680 --> 00:31:27,719
Speaker 2: fact below two hundred thousand. So again that's showing that

547
00:31:27,760 --> 00:31:31,280
Speaker 2: the job market is steady and is strong, and that

548
00:31:31,480 --> 00:31:34,600
Speaker 2: even though it's a low higher or no no higher,

549
00:31:34,680 --> 00:31:38,720
Speaker 2: no fire or low higher and low fire situation, things

550
00:31:38,760 --> 00:31:42,560
Speaker 2: are holding steady. Initial claims for state employment benefits jumped

551
00:31:42,760 --> 00:31:46,120
Speaker 2: twenty two thousand to the largest increase since early December,

552
00:31:46,320 --> 00:31:48,920
Speaker 2: to a seasonally adjusted two hundred and thirty one thousand,

553
00:31:49,160 --> 00:31:51,000
Speaker 2: pretty much smack dab in the middle of that two

554
00:31:51,080 --> 00:31:53,720
Speaker 2: hundred and ten to two hundred and fifty thousand range

555
00:31:53,800 --> 00:31:56,800
Speaker 2: for the last for the weekend January, the thirty first

556
00:31:57,080 --> 00:31:59,920
Speaker 2: Labor Department set on Thursday. Colom Is pulled by Royal,

557
00:32:00,400 --> 00:32:03,920
Speaker 2: had forecasts two hundred and twelve, so they were off

558
00:32:04,000 --> 00:32:10,560
Speaker 2: by nineteen thousand on their particular estimations, but again again

559
00:32:10,640 --> 00:32:13,719
Speaker 2: they were low on their expectation. Heavy snow and freezing

560
00:32:13,720 --> 00:32:17,640
Speaker 2: temperatures blanketed large partians portions of the country towards the

561
00:32:17,720 --> 00:32:21,920
Speaker 2: end of January, which could have left some people unemployed temporarily.

562
00:32:22,400 --> 00:32:26,800
Speaker 2: Unadjusted claims shot up fifty three hundred in Pennsylvania and

563
00:32:26,920 --> 00:32:30,880
Speaker 2: increased thirty four hundred in New York. They rose twenty

564
00:32:30,880 --> 00:32:34,200
Speaker 2: two hundred in New Jersey. And what's I got a

565
00:32:34,280 --> 00:32:36,000
Speaker 2: kick out of this when I was reading this, because

566
00:32:36,040 --> 00:32:39,720
Speaker 2: it actually said five three hundred and one in Pennsylvania,

567
00:32:40,160 --> 00:32:44,160
Speaker 2: increased three four hundred and twenty one in New York.

568
00:32:44,400 --> 00:32:46,920
Speaker 2: So it's just you know that one person, if that

569
00:32:47,040 --> 00:32:51,440
Speaker 2: one person had hadn't filed for unemployment, then numbers would

570
00:32:51,440 --> 00:32:54,240
Speaker 2: be a little bit different. There were also notable increases

571
00:32:54,280 --> 00:32:57,640
Speaker 2: and applications in Illinois, Missouri, Ohio, and Wisconsin.

572
00:32:57,800 --> 00:32:58,920
Speaker 3: We'll pick this up coming up.

573
00:32:58,960 --> 00:33:05,480
Speaker 2: I'm Kevin Gordon, construct a Network seven hundred WLW News.

574
00:33:05,360 --> 00:33:11,840
Speaker 1: Radio seven hundred WLW and iHeartRadio Station Guarantee Human seven

575
00:33:11,920 --> 00:33:15,160
Speaker 1: hundred WLW, HI Heard Radio.

576
00:33:15,800 --> 00:33:17,959
Speaker 3: We'll hear the radio ads about the irs.

577
00:33:18,080 --> 00:33:20,320
Speaker 5: They tell you to be afraid to be scared, and

578
00:33:20,360 --> 00:33:22,480
Speaker 5: they try to frighten you into calling I'm not here

579
00:33:22,520 --> 00:33:22,719
Speaker 5: to do.

580
00:33:22,760 --> 00:33:26,120
Speaker 2: I'm talking about this initial jobs claims surging and some

581
00:33:26,200 --> 00:33:29,280
Speaker 2: of the stories about that. Again, they are even within

582
00:33:29,320 --> 00:33:31,720
Speaker 2: their reporting muting this and saying, ah, you know, this

583
00:33:31,840 --> 00:33:33,520
Speaker 2: is just kind of a one off type of thing,

584
00:33:33,760 --> 00:33:36,000
Speaker 2: not something we should be concerned about. But they're just

585
00:33:36,040 --> 00:33:39,520
Speaker 2: straight up, actually straight up reporting this. Claims are also

586
00:33:39,800 --> 00:33:43,920
Speaker 2: likely rising as the volatility in late twenty twenty five

587
00:33:44,120 --> 00:33:47,480
Speaker 2: and early this year washes out the data, though the

588
00:33:47,560 --> 00:33:51,920
Speaker 2: distortion through the distortions, the labor market remains in what

589
00:33:52,040 --> 00:33:56,080
Speaker 2: economists call low higher low fire mode. In four week

590
00:33:56,160 --> 00:33:59,200
Speaker 2: moving average of claims, considering a better measure of the

591
00:33:59,280 --> 00:34:03,440
Speaker 2: labor market conditions as it strips out weekly volatility from

592
00:34:03,480 --> 00:34:07,640
Speaker 2: the data, rose six thousand to a moving average over

593
00:34:07,680 --> 00:34:09,800
Speaker 2: a four week period of time of two hundred and

594
00:34:09,880 --> 00:34:13,239
Speaker 2: twelve thousand, So again that's at the lower range of

595
00:34:13,280 --> 00:34:15,680
Speaker 2: that two hundred and ten to two hundred and fifty

596
00:34:15,719 --> 00:34:19,640
Speaker 2: thousand range. According to Samuel Tomes, the chief economists US

597
00:34:19,680 --> 00:34:23,800
Speaker 2: economists at Pantheon Macroeconomics, little has changed in the labor

598
00:34:23,880 --> 00:34:27,560
Speaker 2: market since the fourth quarter. Well, okay, the fourth quarter

599
00:34:27,680 --> 00:34:31,839
Speaker 2: was just a month ago in the December, so yeah,

600
00:34:31,960 --> 00:34:34,560
Speaker 2: not much has changed. Now, this is interesting. Now, this

601
00:34:34,600 --> 00:34:37,920
Speaker 2: gets into something that we've talked about before. The headline

602
00:34:37,920 --> 00:34:41,960
Speaker 2: here headlined within the headline of the story ups Amazon

603
00:34:42,000 --> 00:34:45,480
Speaker 2: boosted planned layoffs in January, while a separate report from

604
00:34:45,520 --> 00:34:50,000
Speaker 2: global outplacement firm Challenger, Gray and Christmas showed layoff announcements

605
00:34:50,040 --> 00:34:54,360
Speaker 2: by US employers soared two hundred and five percent to

606
00:34:54,640 --> 00:34:59,759
Speaker 2: one hundred and eight thousand last month. US partially ups

607
00:35:00,040 --> 00:35:03,400
Speaker 2: Service and Amazon accounted for the bulk of the planned

608
00:35:03,640 --> 00:35:09,560
Speaker 2: job cuts planned job cuts. Economists were unsure whether these

609
00:35:09,760 --> 00:35:14,840
Speaker 2: planned layoffs would significantly impact the claims data. High profile

610
00:35:14,920 --> 00:35:20,080
Speaker 2: layoffs last year, including by two companies, did not result

611
00:35:20,120 --> 00:35:23,480
Speaker 2: in notable jump in jobless claims. Now, we had the

612
00:35:23,520 --> 00:35:27,040
Speaker 2: story a few weeks ago, and are reiterated here that

613
00:35:27,600 --> 00:35:33,640
Speaker 2: these unemployment announcements, these announcements of job cuts, a lot

614
00:35:33,640 --> 00:35:39,319
Speaker 2: of times wind up being ghost job cuts because these

615
00:35:39,320 --> 00:35:43,600
Speaker 2: companies will put out the information that, well, we plan

616
00:35:43,719 --> 00:35:47,160
Speaker 2: on laying off thirty thousand people or whatever. And what

617
00:35:47,200 --> 00:35:51,600
Speaker 2: that does is it boosts their stock because people look

618
00:35:51,640 --> 00:35:54,920
Speaker 2: at that, people in the investment community and say, wow,

619
00:35:55,120 --> 00:35:57,840
Speaker 2: they are really getting serious about making money. They're getting

620
00:35:57,840 --> 00:36:01,120
Speaker 2: serious about cutting costs, cutting overhead. So the profits will

621
00:36:01,120 --> 00:36:03,680
Speaker 2: be up, my stock will increase in price, and I'll

622
00:36:03,680 --> 00:36:07,560
Speaker 2: get more return on my investment. And this challengeer Gray

623
00:36:07,719 --> 00:36:12,520
Speaker 2: and Christmas. They keep track of these announcements. That's why

624
00:36:12,680 --> 00:36:15,360
Speaker 2: when they say that those numbers are up two hundred

625
00:36:15,400 --> 00:36:19,680
Speaker 2: and five percent, the announcements are up two hundred and

626
00:36:19,719 --> 00:36:24,160
Speaker 2: five percent, which in actuality, they should follow up with

627
00:36:24,560 --> 00:36:29,200
Speaker 2: those that actually do occur, as opposed to these ghost

628
00:36:29,440 --> 00:36:32,480
Speaker 2: numbers that they're throwing out there. Economists have blamed the

629
00:36:32,520 --> 00:36:39,240
Speaker 2: labor market status on uncertainly stemming and again they always

630
00:36:39,239 --> 00:36:42,680
Speaker 2: have to have a paragraph in here like this. Economists

631
00:36:42,680 --> 00:36:47,239
Speaker 2: have blamed the labor market status on uncertainty stemming from

632
00:36:47,400 --> 00:36:52,200
Speaker 2: import tariffs and the growing popularity of artificial intelligence, which

633
00:36:52,239 --> 00:36:55,400
Speaker 2: they say, has left businesses unsure of their staffing needs

634
00:36:55,600 --> 00:36:59,880
Speaker 2: as they deploy more resources towards AI. They are caustically

635
00:37:00,040 --> 00:37:02,680
Speaker 2: optimistic job growth will picked up in the year as

636
00:37:02,800 --> 00:37:07,360
Speaker 2: tax cuts underpin consumer spending. Because of the job the

637
00:37:07,440 --> 00:37:11,880
Speaker 2: tax cuts from the one big, beautiful bill that was

638
00:37:11,920 --> 00:37:14,839
Speaker 2: passed last year, people are going to start seeing they

639
00:37:14,880 --> 00:37:17,200
Speaker 2: should have seen a little bit of an increase in

640
00:37:17,239 --> 00:37:21,319
Speaker 2: their net pay because the tax brackets are lower, and

641
00:37:21,719 --> 00:37:24,920
Speaker 2: the fact that as they file their tax returns and

642
00:37:24,960 --> 00:37:28,560
Speaker 2: get start filing the tax returns, see the number of

643
00:37:28,680 --> 00:37:32,279
Speaker 2: the increase in their tax return their tax refund And

644
00:37:32,320 --> 00:37:35,000
Speaker 2: there was a story we had even last week or

645
00:37:35,280 --> 00:37:40,520
Speaker 2: a couple of weeks ago that the average tax refund

646
00:37:40,760 --> 00:37:44,759
Speaker 2: is expected to be one thousand dollars higher than what

647
00:37:44,840 --> 00:37:45,959
Speaker 2: it was last year.

648
00:37:46,320 --> 00:37:48,480
Speaker 3: So again that's interesting.

649
00:37:48,520 --> 00:37:51,839
Speaker 2: But again in this story they say this, you know,

650
00:37:51,960 --> 00:37:54,480
Speaker 2: the job growth will pick up this year as tax

651
00:37:54,560 --> 00:37:59,120
Speaker 2: cuts underpin consumer spending. The one thing left out of

652
00:37:59,120 --> 00:38:03,080
Speaker 2: that is in great cuts, which Kevin Gordon and a

653
00:38:03,080 --> 00:38:06,200
Speaker 2: couple of members of the Fed and Donald Trump Scott

654
00:38:06,239 --> 00:38:09,440
Speaker 2: Bessen have been talking about. Because again, as we pointed

655
00:38:09,480 --> 00:38:11,839
Speaker 2: out in this program, the interest rates that we are

656
00:38:11,960 --> 00:38:14,960
Speaker 2: being charged here in the United States are double what

657
00:38:15,000 --> 00:38:18,520
Speaker 2: they are in some of the other developed western countries

658
00:38:18,719 --> 00:38:21,960
Speaker 2: around the world. So if we could get our rates

659
00:38:22,000 --> 00:38:24,880
Speaker 2: within those range, these businesses would take a look at

660
00:38:24,920 --> 00:38:28,239
Speaker 2: these things and say, gee, whiz, you know, I've got

661
00:38:28,239 --> 00:38:31,839
Speaker 2: more money. The expansion that I'm planning seems a little

662
00:38:31,840 --> 00:38:35,279
Speaker 2: bit more reasonable because the return on investment would be

663
00:38:35,400 --> 00:38:38,040
Speaker 2: less because I'm not paying so much in interest rates.

664
00:38:38,200 --> 00:38:39,760
Speaker 2: I may be able to go out and buy another

665
00:38:39,800 --> 00:38:41,680
Speaker 2: truck or fleets, may be able to go out and

666
00:38:41,680 --> 00:38:44,480
Speaker 2: buy more trucks because the financing of that will be

667
00:38:44,560 --> 00:38:48,640
Speaker 2: so much less. The number of people increasing receiving unemployment

668
00:38:48,680 --> 00:38:51,840
Speaker 2: benefits in the initial week of aid past the initial

669
00:38:51,840 --> 00:38:56,120
Speaker 2: week of AID, a proxy for hiring increase twenty five

670
00:38:56,200 --> 00:38:59,279
Speaker 2: thousand to an it seasonally adjusted one point eight four

671
00:38:59,320 --> 00:39:03,200
Speaker 2: to four million during the week, again for three straight week.

672
00:39:04,160 --> 00:39:08,120
Speaker 2: Those numbers had declined for three straight weeks, with economists

673
00:39:08,200 --> 00:39:11,560
Speaker 2: also citing seasonal adjustment issues at the start of the year.

674
00:39:12,880 --> 00:39:16,319
Speaker 2: Finishing up this story because there's some other details in here.

675
00:39:16,360 --> 00:39:19,960
Speaker 2: Some people have exhausted their unemployment so they have either

676
00:39:20,160 --> 00:39:24,239
Speaker 2: sought more work or their off the rolls claims data.

677
00:39:24,239 --> 00:39:27,319
Speaker 2: I have no bearing on January's employment report, which will

678
00:39:27,360 --> 00:39:29,680
Speaker 2: be released last next Wednesday, And we talked about that.

679
00:39:30,320 --> 00:39:33,200
Speaker 2: Economists estimates for not now these are their estimates, and

680
00:39:33,200 --> 00:39:36,000
Speaker 2: it'll be interesting to see how they come how close

681
00:39:36,040 --> 00:39:40,160
Speaker 2: they come to that. Economist estimates for nonfarm payroll are

682
00:39:40,200 --> 00:39:45,080
Speaker 2: currently converging around the increase of seventy thousand jobs. Payroll

683
00:39:45,120 --> 00:39:49,120
Speaker 2: rose by fifty thousand in December. So again, Oh, and

684
00:39:49,200 --> 00:39:52,319
Speaker 2: they talk in here what they are predicting. The unemployment

685
00:39:52,440 --> 00:39:55,600
Speaker 2: rate is forecast to have remained steady at four point

686
00:39:55,680 --> 00:39:57,799
Speaker 2: four percent. I'm going to go out on a limb here.

687
00:39:57,920 --> 00:39:59,839
Speaker 2: I think when they look at this number, it may

688
00:39:59,880 --> 00:40:02,839
Speaker 2: be actually down around four point two percent. But that's

689
00:40:03,120 --> 00:40:07,120
Speaker 2: my opinion. We'll see how that plant pans out. Again,

690
00:40:07,840 --> 00:40:10,719
Speaker 2: another story talking about the increase, and they're saying that

691
00:40:11,000 --> 00:40:13,360
Speaker 2: despite the increase, is important to note that a single

692
00:40:13,480 --> 00:40:16,960
Speaker 2: data point doesn't necessarily indicate a trend, so this has

693
00:40:17,000 --> 00:40:21,640
Speaker 2: to be done over time. So movement in the oil markets,

694
00:40:21,719 --> 00:40:25,440
Speaker 2: this has been really remarkable over the last couple of days,

695
00:40:25,480 --> 00:40:27,680
Speaker 2: and I need to talk about that a little bit

696
00:40:27,760 --> 00:40:32,000
Speaker 2: as we go head into the weekend. Here just off

697
00:40:32,000 --> 00:40:36,719
Speaker 2: the bat West, Texas Intermediate crude currently at sixty three

698
00:40:36,760 --> 00:40:39,719
Speaker 2: dollars and sixteen cents a barrel that is down a

699
00:40:39,760 --> 00:40:43,319
Speaker 2: dollar ninety eight or a three point four percent. Brent

700
00:40:43,400 --> 00:40:46,880
Speaker 2: crude is down is currently at sixty seven dollars and

701
00:40:46,920 --> 00:40:49,960
Speaker 2: forty one cents, down two dollars and five cents, or

702
00:40:50,200 --> 00:40:52,359
Speaker 2: almost three percent two point nine to five.

703
00:40:52,719 --> 00:40:53,920
Speaker 3: Now, what is going on?

704
00:40:55,000 --> 00:40:58,720
Speaker 2: Oil prices fell around two percent on Thursday in choppy

705
00:40:58,880 --> 00:41:02,120
Speaker 2: trading after the US and Iran agreed to hold talks

706
00:41:02,120 --> 00:41:07,400
Speaker 2: in Oman on Friday, easing concerns about Iranian crude supplies.

707
00:41:07,800 --> 00:41:10,680
Speaker 2: At one point during the trading session, both benchmarks had

708
00:41:10,760 --> 00:41:14,480
Speaker 2: slumped more than three percent. According to our friend Phil

709
00:41:14,520 --> 00:41:18,080
Speaker 2: Flynn with Price Futures Group his comment and here he's

710
00:41:18,160 --> 00:41:22,080
Speaker 2: quoted as saying, there is still skepticism that any reasonable

711
00:41:22,120 --> 00:41:25,920
Speaker 2: deal can be made with Iran. Even though the market

712
00:41:26,000 --> 00:41:28,880
Speaker 2: right now is giving talks the benefit of the doubt,

713
00:41:29,320 --> 00:41:31,840
Speaker 2: we still don't know what the outcome.

714
00:41:31,480 --> 00:41:33,040
Speaker 3: Will be of those talks.

715
00:41:33,600 --> 00:41:37,839
Speaker 2: According to Egis Hedging said in a note wait a minute,

716
00:41:37,920 --> 00:41:40,839
Speaker 2: let me skip the paragraph. The discussions come as US

717
00:41:40,880 --> 00:41:43,520
Speaker 2: builds up force in the Middle East and regional players

718
00:41:43,719 --> 00:41:47,279
Speaker 2: seek to avoid a military confrontation that many fear could

719
00:41:47,440 --> 00:41:51,400
Speaker 2: escalate into a wider war. He justs Hedging said in

720
00:41:51,440 --> 00:41:55,480
Speaker 2: their note, differing expectations around the scope and objectives of

721
00:41:55,560 --> 00:41:59,760
Speaker 2: the talks are sustaining uncertainty, injecting volatility in there.

722
00:42:00,200 --> 00:42:00,439
Speaker 3: Now.

723
00:42:02,400 --> 00:42:06,759
Speaker 2: This is important because if Iran is starting to stir

724
00:42:06,920 --> 00:42:12,160
Speaker 2: things up that you may remember that back when the

725
00:42:12,200 --> 00:42:15,279
Speaker 2: saber rattling was going on before there was a lot

726
00:42:15,320 --> 00:42:18,400
Speaker 2: of tie ups, and especially after what it was in

727
00:42:18,400 --> 00:42:23,160
Speaker 2: October seventh, twenty twenty three, when Hamas attacked Israel and

728
00:42:23,200 --> 00:42:28,000
Speaker 2: then he started having these Uti rebels starting to attack

729
00:42:28,080 --> 00:42:32,680
Speaker 2: ships in the Strait in the Blacks or the Blacks

730
00:42:33,280 --> 00:42:38,319
Speaker 2: the Dead the Red Sea rather and around the choke

731
00:42:38,400 --> 00:42:41,360
Speaker 2: point of that straits of horror MOUs that some of

732
00:42:41,400 --> 00:42:44,840
Speaker 2: these pirate ships were trying to attack ships in that area,

733
00:42:45,120 --> 00:42:48,560
Speaker 2: and so instead of going through the Red Sea, they

734
00:42:48,560 --> 00:42:51,400
Speaker 2: were having to go out around the east of the

735
00:42:51,440 --> 00:42:55,200
Speaker 2: West coast of Africa and go around the cape there

736
00:42:55,280 --> 00:42:57,880
Speaker 2: and then get to the Indian Ocean, which added another

737
00:42:58,200 --> 00:43:01,719
Speaker 2: week to ten days in terms of travel time, which

738
00:43:01,760 --> 00:43:04,560
Speaker 2: increased the cost. So trying to avoid that and get

739
00:43:04,600 --> 00:43:08,000
Speaker 2: away from that, making sure that those channels are open

740
00:43:08,440 --> 00:43:11,040
Speaker 2: ab out of the fifth of the world's total consumption

741
00:43:12,160 --> 00:43:15,480
Speaker 2: passes through the Straits of Hormones between Oman and Iran.

742
00:43:15,880 --> 00:43:19,920
Speaker 2: Other OPEC members in Saudi Arabia, America, United Arab Emirates,

743
00:43:20,120 --> 00:43:24,040
Speaker 2: Kuwait and Iraq export most of their crew via the strait,

744
00:43:24,239 --> 00:43:28,520
Speaker 2: and as does Iran. So it's important that these negotiations

745
00:43:28,560 --> 00:43:31,759
Speaker 2: go on. Now there was phil Flynn pointed out in

746
00:43:31,840 --> 00:43:35,440
Speaker 2: his Energy report. He titled that as empty chairs and

747
00:43:35,480 --> 00:43:40,879
Speaker 2: empty tables, because there's been some confusion. Marco Rubio had

748
00:43:40,920 --> 00:43:44,600
Speaker 2: said that it seemed that the Iranians were adding certain

749
00:43:44,640 --> 00:43:48,759
Speaker 2: contingencies and certain things to the negotiations, and he wasn't

750
00:43:48,800 --> 00:43:51,440
Speaker 2: sure whether or not those were going to come about.

751
00:43:51,719 --> 00:43:54,600
Speaker 2: But then Iran then said, oh no, no, no, no, wait

752
00:43:54,640 --> 00:43:56,920
Speaker 2: a minute, We're still going to meet. We're still going

753
00:43:57,000 --> 00:43:59,080
Speaker 2: to be there. So again, this is supposed to take

754
00:43:59,120 --> 00:44:01,400
Speaker 2: place later on to so we'll see how that pans

755
00:44:01,440 --> 00:44:04,680
Speaker 2: out and see what that does to the oil markets. Well, folks,

756
00:44:04,680 --> 00:44:07,319
Speaker 2: we are up against clock here, time for us to

757
00:44:07,360 --> 00:44:09,520
Speaker 2: scoot out the door. And again, if you miss any

758
00:44:09,520 --> 00:44:11,279
Speaker 2: part of our show, make sure you hit up that

759
00:44:11,320 --> 00:44:14,560
Speaker 2: iHeartRadio app bought you buy our friends at restruct centers

760
00:44:14,719 --> 00:44:16,879
Speaker 2: and stay tuned for red Eye Radio. Atop the hour,

761
00:44:16,960 --> 00:44:21,440
Speaker 2: I'm Kevin Gordon, America's Struck A network seven hundred WLW