1 00:00:00,680 --> 00:00:02,880 Speaker 1: To night. Michael Brown joins me here, the former FEMA 2 00:00:02,920 --> 00:00:05,960 Speaker 1: director of talk show host Michael Brown. Brownie, no, Brownie, 3 00:00:06,000 --> 00:00:08,000 Speaker 1: You're doing a heck of a job. The Weekend with 4 00:00:08,200 --> 00:00:11,840 Speaker 1: Michael Brown broadcasting life from Denver, Colorado. It's the Weekend 5 00:00:11,880 --> 00:00:14,200 Speaker 1: with Michael Brown. Glad to have you joining the program today. 6 00:00:14,800 --> 00:00:17,840 Speaker 1: Text line, as usually is always open the numbers three 7 00:00:17,920 --> 00:00:20,960 Speaker 1: three one zero three on whatever message app you use, 8 00:00:21,480 --> 00:00:25,079 Speaker 1: three three one zero three. Keyword Mike or Michael. Give 9 00:00:25,079 --> 00:00:27,440 Speaker 1: me a favorite, Go follow me on the social media platforms, 10 00:00:27,760 --> 00:00:31,960 Speaker 1: follow me on x, Instagram, Facebook, They're all at Michael D. Brown, 11 00:00:32,080 --> 00:00:34,880 Speaker 1: at Michael D. Brown. So I don't know if maybe 12 00:00:34,880 --> 00:00:37,920 Speaker 1: for more than let me think, this is twenty twenty six, 13 00:00:38,120 --> 00:00:43,559 Speaker 1: So for almost maybe a couple of decades now, climate 14 00:00:43,600 --> 00:00:47,640 Speaker 1: policy in this country and across the well, across the 15 00:00:47,760 --> 00:00:54,080 Speaker 1: United Nations and Europe everywhere else, climate policy has rested 16 00:00:54,160 --> 00:00:57,560 Speaker 1: on a simple, simple, and what I think the activists 17 00:00:57,600 --> 00:01:01,040 Speaker 1: believe is a very powerful, powerful premise, and that is 18 00:01:01,080 --> 00:01:08,560 Speaker 1: that rising greenhouse gases increase radiative forcing, which is actually 19 00:01:08,600 --> 00:01:12,520 Speaker 1: just trapping more heat, and therefore that drives modern warming. 20 00:01:14,080 --> 00:01:18,680 Speaker 1: From that premise flows everything from emission caps to net 21 00:01:18,840 --> 00:01:22,119 Speaker 1: zero mandates the cap and trade policies we talked about 22 00:01:22,160 --> 00:01:25,360 Speaker 1: in the first hour, and the logic just on its 23 00:01:25,400 --> 00:01:30,920 Speaker 1: face seems fairly straightforward. If you can control CO two, 24 00:01:31,480 --> 00:01:35,479 Speaker 1: you can control the climate, which, as I've always said, 25 00:01:35,959 --> 00:01:38,640 Speaker 1: is really arrogant on the part of humans to think 26 00:01:38,680 --> 00:01:43,800 Speaker 1: that we can control Mother Nature. I've seen mother Nature 27 00:01:43,840 --> 00:01:46,039 Speaker 1: at our best and at our worst, and I can 28 00:01:46,040 --> 00:01:47,880 Speaker 1: tell you I don't know how you think you can 29 00:01:47,920 --> 00:01:52,080 Speaker 1: control that. And I don't think that mother Nature responds 30 00:01:52,160 --> 00:01:58,000 Speaker 1: to narratives. Mother Nature responds to and the Earth responds 31 00:01:58,080 --> 00:02:02,720 Speaker 1: to energy. And I don't think that's a philosophical statement. 32 00:02:02,720 --> 00:02:08,480 Speaker 1: I think that's a physical statement. That's physics. First. Climate 33 00:02:08,840 --> 00:02:13,880 Speaker 1: has never I don't think behaved as a simple system 34 00:02:14,040 --> 00:02:19,720 Speaker 1: that responds to or reacts to one variable. Geological records 35 00:02:19,760 --> 00:02:23,560 Speaker 1: repeatedly show periods, as we've talked about numerous times on 36 00:02:23,560 --> 00:02:27,840 Speaker 1: this program, where CO two and temperature diverts, suggesting that 37 00:02:28,240 --> 00:02:34,639 Speaker 1: solar radiation, ocean circulation, cloud dynamics, all of these feedback 38 00:02:34,800 --> 00:02:39,000 Speaker 1: processes all play a critical role in shaping the state 39 00:02:39,000 --> 00:02:43,919 Speaker 1: of the climate. But now, and this is again another 40 00:02:44,040 --> 00:02:46,840 Speaker 1: I think nail in the coffin. There's a new paper 41 00:02:48,120 --> 00:02:55,040 Speaker 1: examining surface solar radiation data sets over Germany, and it 42 00:02:55,080 --> 00:02:59,600 Speaker 1: introduces a result that deserves far more attention than anybody's 43 00:02:59,639 --> 00:03:06,639 Speaker 1: giving it. It finds a statistically significant increase in surface 44 00:03:06,800 --> 00:03:11,840 Speaker 1: solar radiation on the order of roughly plus four per 45 00:03:11,960 --> 00:03:16,560 Speaker 1: decade between nineteen ninety five to twenty twenty across multiple 46 00:03:17,000 --> 00:03:22,160 Speaker 1: independent data sets. It's not a temperature anomaly, it's not 47 00:03:22,280 --> 00:03:25,919 Speaker 1: the output of a model. It's a direct change in 48 00:03:26,360 --> 00:03:31,360 Speaker 1: energy that's reaching the surface in Germany, and climate at 49 00:03:31,400 --> 00:03:37,520 Speaker 1: its core is an energy balance dynamic. When I think 50 00:03:37,560 --> 00:03:41,640 Speaker 1: people hear about radios, you're forcing the discussion is almost 51 00:03:41,640 --> 00:03:45,720 Speaker 1: always framed around greenhouse gases and outgoing long wave radiation. 52 00:03:45,840 --> 00:03:47,920 Speaker 1: That framing is not wrong, but I don't think it's 53 00:03:47,920 --> 00:03:52,240 Speaker 1: a complete picture. Two fundamental flows govern the climate system. 54 00:03:52,640 --> 00:03:57,400 Speaker 1: You've got incoming short wave solar radiation coming in from 55 00:03:57,560 --> 00:04:03,320 Speaker 1: the Sun, and you have out going long wave infrared radiation, 56 00:04:04,200 --> 00:04:08,360 Speaker 1: So radiation from Sun to Earth comes in and then 57 00:04:08,480 --> 00:04:13,200 Speaker 1: it radiates back out. And included in all of that, 58 00:04:13,240 --> 00:04:16,400 Speaker 1: you've got water vapor, you got carbon dioxide, you got 59 00:04:16,560 --> 00:04:21,119 Speaker 1: oxygen and ozone, you got methane, nitrogen oxides, You've got 60 00:04:21,160 --> 00:04:26,000 Speaker 1: all those things now. CO two primarily influences the latter. 61 00:04:26,520 --> 00:04:30,400 Speaker 1: Surface solar radiation directly affects the former. So if more 62 00:04:30,480 --> 00:04:34,560 Speaker 1: solar energy is reaching the surface due to changes say 63 00:04:34,600 --> 00:04:38,159 Speaker 1: in cloud cover or aerosol loads and the amount of 64 00:04:38,160 --> 00:04:42,520 Speaker 1: water vapor in the air, or just atmospheric transparency, then 65 00:04:42,560 --> 00:04:46,080 Speaker 1: the surface of the Earth can warm even without a 66 00:04:46,120 --> 00:04:51,160 Speaker 1: proportional change in greenhouse forcing. I think it's the basic 67 00:04:51,200 --> 00:04:55,520 Speaker 1: structure of the Earth's energy budget. I think this is 68 00:04:55,520 --> 00:04:58,520 Speaker 1: why this Germany data sets so important. It moves the 69 00:04:58,560 --> 00:05:02,440 Speaker 1: discussion away from some sort of abstract or modeling, you know, 70 00:05:03,200 --> 00:05:09,200 Speaker 1: toward observed changes in energy input at the surface. Germany 71 00:05:09,240 --> 00:05:12,440 Speaker 1: is not just another region in the data set. It's 72 00:05:12,440 --> 00:05:15,880 Speaker 1: one of the most It's one of the areas on 73 00:05:15,960 --> 00:05:18,680 Speaker 1: the surface of the world, on the surface of the 74 00:05:18,720 --> 00:05:24,760 Speaker 1: Earth that has probably the most areas that are governed, 75 00:05:24,880 --> 00:05:30,960 Speaker 1: not governed, but observed through instruments. When it comes particilarly, 76 00:05:31,040 --> 00:05:35,800 Speaker 1: it comes to radiation measurements, atmospheric monitoring, long term climate observations. 77 00:05:36,440 --> 00:05:40,159 Speaker 1: So this new study compiles multiple gridded surface solar radiation 78 00:05:40,279 --> 00:05:44,880 Speaker 1: products and it finds consistent brightening trends across data sets. 79 00:05:46,120 --> 00:05:52,039 Speaker 1: And there's a consistent consistency across those data sets and 80 00:05:52,120 --> 00:05:56,880 Speaker 1: a strong statistical significance because it suggests they were not 81 00:05:56,960 --> 00:06:00,960 Speaker 1: looking at noise measurement drift. We're not looking at a 82 00:06:01,000 --> 00:06:04,239 Speaker 1: single data set artifact. We're looking at a coherent signal, 83 00:06:04,839 --> 00:06:08,159 Speaker 1: an incoming solar energy at the surface. And once you 84 00:06:08,279 --> 00:06:13,000 Speaker 1: translate that signal into some sort of physical unit, then 85 00:06:13,040 --> 00:06:17,679 Speaker 1: the implications become far more profound than temperature discussions alone. 86 00:06:18,720 --> 00:06:24,120 Speaker 1: If surface solar radiation is increasing measurably, then the fundamental 87 00:06:24,120 --> 00:06:27,400 Speaker 1: attribution question kind of emerges. How much of the observed 88 00:06:27,400 --> 00:06:31,200 Speaker 1: warming in a highly monitored area like Germany is due 89 00:06:31,279 --> 00:06:36,080 Speaker 1: to increased solar energy reaching the surface, And then you've 90 00:06:36,080 --> 00:06:39,760 Speaker 1: got to ask how much is due to greenhouse gas forcing. 91 00:06:41,640 --> 00:06:45,560 Speaker 1: So let's walk through that, because I think it's pretty amazing. 92 00:06:46,920 --> 00:06:51,120 Speaker 1: Across five independent surface solar radiation data sets over Germany, 93 00:06:51,279 --> 00:06:55,320 Speaker 1: the author the authors identify a statistically significant positive trend 94 00:06:56,440 --> 00:06:59,800 Speaker 1: between nineteen ninety five to twenty twenty, and they're strongly 95 00:07:00,320 --> 00:07:03,840 Speaker 1: between products and robust confidence and all the intervals. It's 96 00:07:03,880 --> 00:07:07,320 Speaker 1: a direct measurement of increased incoming short wave energy at 97 00:07:07,360 --> 00:07:12,520 Speaker 1: the surface because and you can't really overstate that, because 98 00:07:12,560 --> 00:07:17,640 Speaker 1: temperature is a response variable and radiation is a forcing variable. 99 00:07:18,600 --> 00:07:23,920 Speaker 1: So let's translate that, let's convert that into something physically intoity. 100 00:07:24,640 --> 00:07:27,800 Speaker 1: When you have a increase over roughly two and a 101 00:07:27,840 --> 00:07:31,200 Speaker 1: half decades, that implies on the order that there's some 102 00:07:31,240 --> 00:07:35,520 Speaker 1: additional surface solar radiation relative to the baseline period, and 103 00:07:35,600 --> 00:07:39,200 Speaker 1: you compare that to the number that dominates climate policy discussions. 104 00:07:39,640 --> 00:07:42,560 Speaker 1: Most estimates of the motor of the modern global energy 105 00:07:42,560 --> 00:07:45,800 Speaker 1: imbalance are on an order of roughly, you know, zero 106 00:07:45,880 --> 00:07:50,880 Speaker 1: point six to zero point eight of degrees, even allowing 107 00:07:50,920 --> 00:07:55,360 Speaker 1: for regional amplification and partial absorption. The scale contrast is 108 00:07:55,400 --> 00:08:00,160 Speaker 1: striking a sustained multi walk per square meter increase in 109 00:08:00,160 --> 00:08:05,000 Speaker 1: incoming solar radiation over land is not trivial. It's energetically 110 00:08:05,080 --> 00:08:09,760 Speaker 1: capable of driving measurable surface warming on its own, and 111 00:08:09,800 --> 00:08:13,280 Speaker 1: that doesn't require any sort of speculative modeling. It follows 112 00:08:13,320 --> 00:08:17,800 Speaker 1: directly from energy conservation. If more energy enters the surface 113 00:08:17,800 --> 00:08:20,960 Speaker 1: system than before, well, then temperature will tend to rise 114 00:08:21,040 --> 00:08:24,880 Speaker 1: unless that energy is fully offset somewhere else. So it's 115 00:08:24,920 --> 00:08:29,120 Speaker 1: critical to understand that CO two and solar radiation operate 116 00:08:29,240 --> 00:08:35,199 Speaker 1: through different physical mechanisms because CO two reduces outgoing infrared 117 00:08:35,320 --> 00:08:40,040 Speaker 1: radiation and enhances heat retention. But that's where people stop. 118 00:08:41,200 --> 00:08:45,360 Speaker 1: Increase solar radiation raises the amount of energy absorbed at 119 00:08:45,400 --> 00:08:51,320 Speaker 1: the surface directly, both of which produce warming. But the 120 00:08:51,360 --> 00:08:59,200 Speaker 1: policy focus overwhelmingly targets greenhouse gas forcing while largely ignoring 121 00:08:59,280 --> 00:09:03,560 Speaker 1: the observed variability in the incoming solar energy the surface. 122 00:09:04,160 --> 00:09:09,079 Speaker 1: So what's the bottom line. The Germany case demonstrates that 123 00:09:09,320 --> 00:09:16,880 Speaker 1: atmospheric transparency changes, aerosol reductions, cloud variability can significantly increase 124 00:09:16,960 --> 00:09:21,720 Speaker 1: surface energy input and it doesn't require any change in 125 00:09:21,840 --> 00:09:27,559 Speaker 1: CO two concentration. That aligns with broader climate literature acknowledging 126 00:09:28,240 --> 00:09:34,320 Speaker 1: that multiple factors, including solar radiation and atmospheric dynamics, influence 127 00:09:35,000 --> 00:09:38,959 Speaker 1: temperature evolution, alongside, of course greenhouse gases which do the 128 00:09:39,000 --> 00:09:44,320 Speaker 1: same thing. So the solar signal probably explains a lot 129 00:09:44,440 --> 00:09:50,480 Speaker 1: of Germany's warming. The sun, Yes, the sun and the 130 00:09:50,520 --> 00:09:55,240 Speaker 1: heat from the sun, and how does that get to us. Well, 131 00:09:55,280 --> 00:09:57,880 Speaker 1: it has to penetrate the atmosphere, It has to penetrate 132 00:09:57,920 --> 00:10:00,880 Speaker 1: the clouds, it has to penetrate water, vapor, has to 133 00:10:00,920 --> 00:10:04,800 Speaker 1: penetrate all of that which are all variables, so it's 134 00:10:04,840 --> 00:10:08,880 Speaker 1: going to change back and forth and CO two. Yes, 135 00:10:09,440 --> 00:10:12,560 Speaker 1: it don't have an effect, but not nearly the effect 136 00:10:12,960 --> 00:10:18,199 Speaker 1: that this German data set shows CO two. Let's stop 137 00:10:18,280 --> 00:10:31,160 Speaker 1: worrying about it. I'll be right back. Welcome back to 138 00:10:31,160 --> 00:10:32,800 Speaker 1: the Weekend with Michael Brown. Glad to have you with me. 139 00:10:32,840 --> 00:10:36,320 Speaker 1: Appreciate your tuning in. Don't forget subscribe to the podcast. 140 00:10:36,400 --> 00:10:39,079 Speaker 1: It's real easy to do on your podcast app whatever 141 00:10:39,120 --> 00:10:43,199 Speaker 1: you use. Search for and find this program, The Situation 142 00:10:43,320 --> 00:10:46,040 Speaker 1: with Michael Brown, The Situation with Michael Brown. Once you 143 00:10:46,120 --> 00:10:49,160 Speaker 1: find that, hit the subscribe button, leave a five star review, 144 00:10:49,400 --> 00:10:51,760 Speaker 1: and that will automatically download all five days of the 145 00:10:51,800 --> 00:10:54,760 Speaker 1: weekday program plus the weekend program. So go get that 146 00:10:54,800 --> 00:10:58,440 Speaker 1: done right now. What if I told you that the 147 00:10:58,520 --> 00:11:03,880 Speaker 1: desert the American West is drinking your data? Because everybody's 148 00:11:03,920 --> 00:11:06,880 Speaker 1: talking about how artificial intelligence is going to break the 149 00:11:06,920 --> 00:11:09,520 Speaker 1: power grid, and they're right, but I think they're looking 150 00:11:09,559 --> 00:11:13,079 Speaker 1: at the wrong crisis. So here's the case I'd like 151 00:11:13,120 --> 00:11:16,960 Speaker 1: to make today. I think we're building the infrastructure of 152 00:11:17,000 --> 00:11:22,559 Speaker 1: the artificial intelligence revolution in the worst possible places, using 153 00:11:22,559 --> 00:11:26,360 Speaker 1: the worst possible methods, and nobody in the position of 154 00:11:26,400 --> 00:11:31,400 Speaker 1: authority is connecting the dots. The power problem with AI 155 00:11:31,600 --> 00:11:35,640 Speaker 1: data centers is real, and it's enormous, but the water 156 00:11:35,760 --> 00:11:41,280 Speaker 1: problem is quieter. It's sneakier, and in the American West 157 00:11:41,400 --> 00:11:46,240 Speaker 1: where I live, potentially irreversible. And right now we're planting 158 00:11:46,480 --> 00:11:49,720 Speaker 1: data centers in the desert like we've got water to burn, 159 00:11:50,400 --> 00:11:53,800 Speaker 1: which is precisely what we don't have now. I want 160 00:11:53,840 --> 00:11:58,200 Speaker 1: to establish some facts. And before you think that we've 161 00:11:58,240 --> 00:12:01,520 Speaker 1: got to move all the AID and a center somewhere else, 162 00:12:01,800 --> 00:12:03,600 Speaker 1: or that we can't do them, or we have to 163 00:12:03,600 --> 00:12:05,679 Speaker 1: go to space like Elon Musk wants us to do 164 00:12:06,040 --> 00:12:09,679 Speaker 1: because of water, I want to give you an alternative, 165 00:12:10,000 --> 00:12:12,800 Speaker 1: because I think there is an alternaty. The first less 166 00:12:12,880 --> 00:12:17,000 Speaker 1: established some facts. A modern AI data center, the kind 167 00:12:17,040 --> 00:12:20,360 Speaker 1: running the models behind like Chat, GPT or Microsoft or 168 00:12:20,360 --> 00:12:24,720 Speaker 1: co pilot Google Gemini. They consume somewhere between one hundred 169 00:12:24,760 --> 00:12:29,360 Speaker 1: and five hundred megawatts of electricity continuously, not at a peak, 170 00:12:29,960 --> 00:12:35,640 Speaker 1: always constantly. The industry is now planning gigawatts scale campuses, 171 00:12:36,280 --> 00:12:40,360 Speaker 1: meaning a single complex could rival the output of a 172 00:12:40,679 --> 00:12:45,079 Speaker 1: mid sized power plant. The International Energy Agency projects that 173 00:12:45,480 --> 00:12:50,920 Speaker 1: US data center electricity consumption will roughly double between going 174 00:12:50,960 --> 00:12:54,120 Speaker 1: back to twenty twenty two. In this year, Goldman Sachs 175 00:12:54,360 --> 00:12:58,160 Speaker 1: estimates that demand can grow one hundred and sixty percent 176 00:12:58,360 --> 00:13:02,600 Speaker 1: by twenty thirty. So power companies in Virginia, Texas, Arizona, 177 00:13:03,040 --> 00:13:07,480 Speaker 1: they're reporting interconnection que backlogs of anywhere between five and 178 00:13:07,520 --> 00:13:12,440 Speaker 1: ten years. Microsoft, Google, Amazon, they're so desperate for power 179 00:13:13,120 --> 00:13:19,439 Speaker 1: they're buying nuke plants. That shows how serious the electricity 180 00:13:19,480 --> 00:13:23,520 Speaker 1: problem is. But here's what doesn't make the front page. 181 00:13:24,559 --> 00:13:27,520 Speaker 1: Those same data centers to keep all those ships from 182 00:13:27,559 --> 00:13:32,720 Speaker 1: melting consumed between one and five million gallons of water 183 00:13:33,600 --> 00:13:39,280 Speaker 1: per day per facility. Microsoft's global water consumption jumped thirty 184 00:13:39,320 --> 00:13:43,559 Speaker 1: four percent in a single year as their AI deployment 185 00:13:43,559 --> 00:13:49,560 Speaker 1: accelert Google consumed approximately five point six billion gallons of water, 186 00:13:49,600 --> 00:13:54,080 Speaker 1: and twenty twenty two alone, a University of California Riversides 187 00:13:54,080 --> 00:13:59,760 Speaker 1: study estimated that a conversation with chat GPT, say twenty 188 00:13:59,840 --> 00:14:04,120 Speaker 1: two fifty questions, consumes roughly half a liter of water. 189 00:14:05,040 --> 00:14:08,960 Speaker 1: Now you multiply that by hundreds of millions of daily 190 00:14:09,080 --> 00:14:11,880 Speaker 1: users and you start to understand the scale of what 191 00:14:11,960 --> 00:14:17,079 Speaker 1: I'm talking about. But here's where the geography becomes an exhibit. 192 00:14:17,120 --> 00:14:19,960 Speaker 1: I want you to think about the sun belt, the 193 00:14:19,960 --> 00:14:23,880 Speaker 1: Mouth and West Arizona, Nevada, Texas, New Mexico. That's where 194 00:14:23,920 --> 00:14:27,479 Speaker 1: the land is cheap. That's where also solar power is abundant, 195 00:14:27,880 --> 00:14:31,200 Speaker 1: where taxing centers are generous, and where the data center 196 00:14:31,240 --> 00:14:37,240 Speaker 1: construction is absolutely booming. They're also, by any honest reckoning, 197 00:14:37,880 --> 00:14:42,160 Speaker 1: the most water stressed region in the country. Phoenix is 198 00:14:42,200 --> 00:14:46,120 Speaker 1: already in a long term color Huder River Compact crisis. Mesa, 199 00:14:46,200 --> 00:14:49,560 Speaker 1: Arizona had to pause new data center approvals because the 200 00:14:49,600 --> 00:14:52,800 Speaker 1: water mass simply didn't work. And yet the build out 201 00:14:52,840 --> 00:14:57,120 Speaker 1: continues because the economic incentives to build fast and familiar 202 00:14:57,160 --> 00:15:00,360 Speaker 1: locations where the fiber runs, where the power cann where 203 00:15:00,360 --> 00:15:05,280 Speaker 1: the permitting is understood consistently overrides the discipline to build 204 00:15:05,320 --> 00:15:11,760 Speaker 1: an AI data center smartly. Now, to be fair, solutions exist. 205 00:15:13,080 --> 00:15:17,800 Speaker 1: The industry knows this problem is coming. But there's a 206 00:15:17,840 --> 00:15:22,840 Speaker 1: technology called direct liquid cooling, where instead of blasting cold 207 00:15:22,960 --> 00:15:25,560 Speaker 1: ert servers and then evaporating millions of gallons of water 208 00:15:25,600 --> 00:15:29,920 Speaker 1: and shed the heat, you run coolant directly to the 209 00:15:30,040 --> 00:15:34,479 Speaker 1: chip itself, and you reject the heat through a dry radiator. 210 00:15:35,480 --> 00:15:42,160 Speaker 1: There's no evaporation, no evaporation required. That cuts water consumption 211 00:15:42,840 --> 00:15:47,920 Speaker 1: anywhere from seventy to ninety percent in Vidius. Latest AI 212 00:15:48,040 --> 00:15:53,760 Speaker 1: hardware is actually designed around that. The major hyperscalers are 213 00:15:53,800 --> 00:15:58,920 Speaker 1: deploying it in new facilities right now. There's also immersion cooling, 214 00:15:59,520 --> 00:16:05,720 Speaker 1: where are literally literally submerged in non conductive fluid, think 215 00:16:06,000 --> 00:16:09,960 Speaker 1: a tank of specialized oil, and the heat transfers directly 216 00:16:10,000 --> 00:16:14,920 Speaker 1: to the liquid, which is then recirculated. What is that equal? 217 00:16:15,440 --> 00:16:23,400 Speaker 1: Near zero water handles racked densities that air cooling can't reach. 218 00:16:24,200 --> 00:16:26,960 Speaker 1: There are data centers in Scandinavy that use near freezing 219 00:16:27,000 --> 00:16:31,240 Speaker 1: outside air for cooling almost year round. Their municipalities in 220 00:16:31,280 --> 00:16:35,440 Speaker 1: Sweden and Finland that actually want data centers because the 221 00:16:35,520 --> 00:16:40,320 Speaker 1: waste heat feeds their city heating system Stockholm, they're capturing 222 00:16:40,440 --> 00:16:43,520 Speaker 1: exhaust heat from server farms to warm homes in winter. 223 00:16:44,080 --> 00:16:47,000 Speaker 1: We could be doing that too, but we're not doing that. 224 00:16:48,600 --> 00:16:51,320 Speaker 1: This is not a technology problem. We know how to 225 00:16:51,320 --> 00:16:54,560 Speaker 1: build data centers that don't dry out the Colorado River. 226 00:16:55,080 --> 00:16:59,200 Speaker 1: This is a priorities problem and a policy problem, because 227 00:16:59,560 --> 00:17:02,160 Speaker 1: when a data center developer can get a tax incentive 228 00:17:02,200 --> 00:17:06,480 Speaker 1: to building Phoenix but not in Minnesota, the market produces 229 00:17:06,520 --> 00:17:11,560 Speaker 1: a Phoenix data center. When water is chronically underpriced in 230 00:17:11,600 --> 00:17:15,040 Speaker 1: the American West because of century old water rights law, 231 00:17:15,080 --> 00:17:18,960 Speaker 1: there's never been reformed. You get the illusion that water 232 00:17:19,080 --> 00:17:21,000 Speaker 1: is cheap until suddenly it is. And because there is 233 00:17:21,000 --> 00:17:23,920 Speaker 1: no water, and by then the aquifer is gone, you 234 00:17:24,000 --> 00:17:27,440 Speaker 1: cannot build more Colorado River. You can't drill your way 235 00:17:27,480 --> 00:17:30,639 Speaker 1: out of a depleted aquifer on a human timescale. The 236 00:17:30,800 --> 00:17:36,119 Speaker 1: power grid, for all its challenges, can be expanded. Water 237 00:17:36,240 --> 00:17:40,040 Speaker 1: is not an engineering problem with an engineering solution. Sorry, engineers, 238 00:17:40,240 --> 00:17:43,640 Speaker 1: you can't fix this because it's a finite resource being 239 00:17:43,640 --> 00:17:49,600 Speaker 1: treated like an infinite one. The AI revolution, it's real. 240 00:17:50,080 --> 00:17:54,000 Speaker 1: The benefits are real. But there are alternaties. Why aren't 241 00:17:54,000 --> 00:17:59,200 Speaker 1: we doing them? Cooling systems exist, Why don't we mandate 242 00:17:59,280 --> 00:18:10,639 Speaker 1: that incentifize that. I'll be right back too night. Michael 243 00:18:10,640 --> 00:18:12,800 Speaker 1: Brown joins me here, the former FEMA director of talk 244 00:18:12,840 --> 00:18:15,679 Speaker 1: show host Michael Brown. Brownie, No, Brownie, You're doing a 245 00:18:15,680 --> 00:18:19,480 Speaker 1: heck of a job The Weekend with Michael Brown. Welcome 246 00:18:19,480 --> 00:18:21,000 Speaker 1: back to the Weekend with Michael Brown. Glad to have 247 00:18:21,040 --> 00:18:23,119 Speaker 1: you with me. I appreciate you tuning in. If you 248 00:18:23,160 --> 00:18:26,840 Speaker 1: like what we do. During the weekend on the weekend program. 249 00:18:27,200 --> 00:18:30,119 Speaker 1: I would humbly suggest you might like the weekday program 250 00:18:30,640 --> 00:18:32,200 Speaker 1: and what you do today. If you want to listen 251 00:18:32,240 --> 00:18:35,080 Speaker 1: to the weekday program regardless of where you are, you 252 00:18:35,119 --> 00:18:38,800 Speaker 1: can stream it live on the iHeart app. On your 253 00:18:38,840 --> 00:18:41,920 Speaker 1: iHeart app. Just set a preset for a station whose 254 00:18:41,960 --> 00:18:47,560 Speaker 1: call letters are KOA KOA, it's at eight fifty AM 255 00:18:47,640 --> 00:18:51,080 Speaker 1: or ninety four to one FM. Hit that as a preset. 256 00:18:51,280 --> 00:18:53,960 Speaker 1: Then you can stream live the weekday program that I 257 00:18:54,000 --> 00:18:58,000 Speaker 1: do from nine to noon mountain time, Monday through Friday. 258 00:18:59,000 --> 00:19:02,119 Speaker 1: So go do that. We have a I don't know. 259 00:19:02,160 --> 00:19:05,480 Speaker 1: I love both the weekday and the weekend program, so 260 00:19:05,520 --> 00:19:07,680 Speaker 1: you might You might like them too. If I like them, 261 00:19:07,680 --> 00:19:12,120 Speaker 1: you'll like them. Go stream me. So the last hour 262 00:19:12,240 --> 00:19:17,440 Speaker 1: or the last segment talked about water for artificial intelligence centers. 263 00:19:17,800 --> 00:19:20,520 Speaker 1: I'm gonna talk about water again. I want to take 264 00:19:20,520 --> 00:19:22,320 Speaker 1: you to a patch of water that you've probably never 265 00:19:22,359 --> 00:19:27,000 Speaker 1: really thought much about, thirty miles wide at its narrowest point, 266 00:19:28,000 --> 00:19:32,879 Speaker 1: maybe twenty one thirty miles talk between the southern coast 267 00:19:32,960 --> 00:19:37,760 Speaker 1: of Iran and the tip of the Arabian Peninsula. Thirty miles. Now, 268 00:19:37,760 --> 00:19:39,480 Speaker 1: this may not make I'm trying to think of my 269 00:19:39,520 --> 00:19:43,800 Speaker 1: mind thirty miles and thirty miles where I sit is 270 00:19:43,840 --> 00:19:49,040 Speaker 1: from about Denver to Castle Rock, Colorado down down I 271 00:19:49,200 --> 00:19:51,800 Speaker 1: twenty five. So how much you think about you know, 272 00:19:52,119 --> 00:19:55,280 Speaker 1: wherever you're sitting right now, draw straight line from wherever 273 00:19:55,320 --> 00:19:57,960 Speaker 1: you're sitting to something that you can relate to thirty 274 00:19:57,960 --> 00:20:03,520 Speaker 1: miles away. And yet right now, that thirty mile choke 275 00:20:03,560 --> 00:20:06,680 Speaker 1: point is the single most consequential piece of real estate 276 00:20:06,720 --> 00:20:12,800 Speaker 1: on the entire planet. The strait of her moves easily. 277 00:20:12,840 --> 00:20:17,520 Speaker 1: A quarter of the world's oil passes through it, a 278 00:20:17,680 --> 00:20:23,720 Speaker 1: fifth of the world's liquified natural gas, every supertanker, every 279 00:20:23,760 --> 00:20:31,080 Speaker 1: liquid liquefied natural gas carrier, threading. That needle represents fuel 280 00:20:31,200 --> 00:20:37,720 Speaker 1: that heats homes, powers factories, moves goods across continents. And 281 00:20:37,840 --> 00:20:41,720 Speaker 1: for the past couple of weeks now that needle that 282 00:20:41,760 --> 00:20:44,840 Speaker 1: they've been kind of threading, has been at the very best, 283 00:20:45,600 --> 00:20:50,480 Speaker 1: severely threaded. When Cutter was forced to suspend liquid natural 284 00:20:50,520 --> 00:20:55,720 Speaker 1: gas production, partly because Iraan closed the straight partly because 285 00:20:55,800 --> 00:21:00,800 Speaker 1: or any enforces struck Katari energy infrastructure directly, the global 286 00:21:00,840 --> 00:21:05,439 Speaker 1: price of LNG spiked about fifty percent, not over a 287 00:21:05,480 --> 00:21:09,360 Speaker 1: month and over a week and hours. That's how fragile 288 00:21:09,400 --> 00:21:13,040 Speaker 1: the global energy system is. And that's how much leverage 289 00:21:13,040 --> 00:21:17,440 Speaker 1: a hostile theocracy holds over the industrialized world simply by 290 00:21:17,520 --> 00:21:22,240 Speaker 1: virtue of geography. Now here's why I want you to 291 00:21:22,240 --> 00:21:25,240 Speaker 1: pay close attention, because this is the part they should 292 00:21:25,240 --> 00:21:30,239 Speaker 1: make you genuinely angry. Not at the Iranians, not at 293 00:21:30,280 --> 00:21:32,639 Speaker 1: the Mola's, not even at the Ayatola. There's plenty of 294 00:21:32,920 --> 00:21:37,960 Speaker 1: stuff to be mad about toward them, instead at the 295 00:21:38,040 --> 00:21:42,480 Speaker 1: people who had decades to fix this and chose not to. 296 00:21:43,960 --> 00:21:49,240 Speaker 1: Nineteen seventy three. I'm just old enough to remember the 297 00:21:49,320 --> 00:21:52,800 Speaker 1: year of the first Arab oil embargo, the year of 298 00:21:52,880 --> 00:21:56,480 Speaker 1: gas line stretching around the block, The year that Americans 299 00:21:56,480 --> 00:21:59,439 Speaker 1: sat in their car for hours hoping the pump wouldn't 300 00:21:59,480 --> 00:22:01,480 Speaker 1: run dry time they got up to the gas pump. 301 00:22:02,720 --> 00:22:07,359 Speaker 1: The Middle East at that time accounted for about thirty 302 00:22:07,400 --> 00:22:11,199 Speaker 1: seven percent of global crude oil production. Do you know 303 00:22:11,240 --> 00:22:17,720 Speaker 1: what that number is today? It's gone from thirty seven percent, wow, 304 00:22:17,840 --> 00:22:23,440 Speaker 1: to thirty one percent. After fifty years of wars, crisis, embargoes, 305 00:22:23,600 --> 00:22:26,359 Speaker 1: and solemn vows that this time the West would achieve 306 00:22:26,440 --> 00:22:30,800 Speaker 1: energy independence. The world is almost exactly as dependent on 307 00:22:30,840 --> 00:22:32,879 Speaker 1: that volatile region as it was when Nixon was in 308 00:22:32,920 --> 00:22:37,480 Speaker 1: the White House. Almost exactly. The keyword is almost, because 309 00:22:37,520 --> 00:22:42,280 Speaker 1: there's one major exception, and it matters enormously. The United 310 00:22:42,320 --> 00:22:48,200 Speaker 1: States of America. Successive US administrations, not all of them, 311 00:22:48,400 --> 00:22:52,239 Speaker 1: but enough of them made energy security and national pray ord. 312 00:22:52,920 --> 00:22:58,399 Speaker 1: We developed our own fields, we pioneered shale, We built 313 00:22:58,440 --> 00:23:03,840 Speaker 1: out liquid natural gas export capacity, and the result American 314 00:23:03,920 --> 00:23:09,440 Speaker 1: consumers pay roughly one third what British and German consumers 315 00:23:09,480 --> 00:23:14,040 Speaker 1: pay for natural gas one third before the crisis even started. 316 00:23:15,720 --> 00:23:18,840 Speaker 1: But Europe chose a different path. Now I want to 317 00:23:18,880 --> 00:23:22,560 Speaker 1: be precise about what that path was, because it wasn't 318 00:23:22,760 --> 00:23:26,640 Speaker 1: just a naive path. It wasn't the yellow brick road. 319 00:23:27,080 --> 00:23:31,160 Speaker 1: It was a wilful path. The United Kingdom is shuddering 320 00:23:31,400 --> 00:23:35,040 Speaker 1: north Sea oil and gas fields. They still have a 321 00:23:35,040 --> 00:23:39,400 Speaker 1: productive life left in them. The Netherlands, the Dutch closed 322 00:23:39,400 --> 00:23:44,360 Speaker 1: gas fields that were still flowing. The EU effectively banned 323 00:23:44,560 --> 00:23:48,240 Speaker 1: shale gas development and decided to rely on imports instead, 324 00:23:48,560 --> 00:23:52,120 Speaker 1: first from Russia, which went about as well as you'd expect, 325 00:23:52,600 --> 00:23:55,520 Speaker 1: and now from the same Middle Eastern producers currently in 326 00:23:55,560 --> 00:24:01,439 Speaker 1: the crosshairs of a military conflict. Old Trump stood up 327 00:24:01,560 --> 00:24:06,119 Speaker 1: the NATO summit back in two thousand and eighteen and 328 00:24:06,160 --> 00:24:10,560 Speaker 1: he told European leaders to their faces that their dependence 329 00:24:10,560 --> 00:24:15,399 Speaker 1: on Russian gas was a tatastrophic strategic mistake. What did 330 00:24:15,440 --> 00:24:20,840 Speaker 1: they do? They literally laughed at him. And then came Ukraine, 331 00:24:21,960 --> 00:24:26,280 Speaker 1: Then came the pipeline sabotage, Then came the panic. And 332 00:24:26,359 --> 00:24:29,600 Speaker 1: now this. You know what's funny is when you think 333 00:24:29,600 --> 00:24:33,600 Speaker 1: about Ukraine and the pipeline sabotage and the panic, they're 334 00:24:33,640 --> 00:24:36,879 Speaker 1: all I mean, those are tentacles stories. Those are stories 335 00:24:36,880 --> 00:24:40,400 Speaker 1: that have tentacles that I could go down for hours. 336 00:24:41,640 --> 00:24:43,679 Speaker 1: But here's the argument you're going to hear from the 337 00:24:43,680 --> 00:24:47,880 Speaker 1: green energy lobby, and you'll hear it because they are 338 00:24:47,920 --> 00:24:52,040 Speaker 1: nothing if not opportunistic. The argument is that this crisis 339 00:24:52,240 --> 00:24:56,000 Speaker 1: proves we need to accelerate the transition to renewables. We 340 00:24:56,119 --> 00:24:59,920 Speaker 1: got to get off fossil fuels faster, and you get 341 00:25:00,080 --> 00:25:02,440 Speaker 1: out from underneath the thumb of the petrol states and 342 00:25:02,480 --> 00:25:07,159 Speaker 1: the molas. It's kind of a subductive argument, isn't it. 343 00:25:07,160 --> 00:25:12,120 Speaker 1: It also doesn't survive contact with reality. Sun and wind 344 00:25:12,240 --> 00:25:18,080 Speaker 1: currently account for one sixth of overall energy consumption in 345 00:25:18,160 --> 00:25:25,800 Speaker 1: Europe one six. Fossil fuels supply almost all of the rest. 346 00:25:26,480 --> 00:25:29,439 Speaker 1: You cannot wish away the other five six on a 347 00:25:29,480 --> 00:25:35,359 Speaker 1: timeline that matches a geopolitical crisis. You cannot solarize a 348 00:25:35,480 --> 00:25:39,200 Speaker 1: steel mill by next quarter. You cannot win power a 349 00:25:39,240 --> 00:25:43,359 Speaker 1: cargo ship by next year. And somebody pointing out on 350 00:25:43,359 --> 00:25:46,720 Speaker 1: the text line, what about the doldrums? You know that 351 00:25:47,000 --> 00:25:50,640 Speaker 1: sailine cargo ship heads to you know, apport in Boston 352 00:25:51,200 --> 00:25:53,920 Speaker 1: and it gets stuck because well, the wind's not blowing 353 00:25:53,920 --> 00:25:58,359 Speaker 1: out in the middy ocean. The infrastructure just simply doesn't exist. 354 00:25:59,440 --> 00:26:03,120 Speaker 1: The storage technology isn't here yet, and in the meantime, 355 00:26:03,160 --> 00:26:07,320 Speaker 1: the lights still need to come on. Fossil fuels will 356 00:26:07,320 --> 00:26:11,399 Speaker 1: be a part of every nation's energy mix for decades, 357 00:26:11,480 --> 00:26:16,640 Speaker 1: not years, decades, and any energy policy that doesn't account 358 00:26:16,680 --> 00:26:20,880 Speaker 1: for that is not a policy. It's wishful thinking. It's naive, 359 00:26:21,200 --> 00:26:24,760 Speaker 1: wishful thinking. Now there's no quick resolution coming In the Gulf. 360 00:26:25,600 --> 00:26:28,520 Speaker 1: Common Ay may be gone, but the clerical structure that 361 00:26:28,520 --> 00:26:30,959 Speaker 1: propped him up is still there. A Rack, Seria, a Libya, 362 00:26:31,200 --> 00:26:33,359 Speaker 1: every one of them a major oil producer, every one 363 00:26:33,359 --> 00:26:38,920 Speaker 1: of them a potential flashpoint. This country can increase production 364 00:26:39,040 --> 00:26:41,320 Speaker 1: to help, but not fast enough or large enough to 365 00:26:41,320 --> 00:26:44,160 Speaker 1: fully cushion a sustained closure of the Strait of Hermons. 366 00:26:45,359 --> 00:26:46,760 Speaker 1: So here's what I want you to take away from 367 00:26:46,760 --> 00:26:51,120 Speaker 1: all of this. America is not immune to global economic shocks. 368 00:26:52,160 --> 00:26:55,959 Speaker 1: We're too interconnected for that. But we are far less 369 00:26:56,280 --> 00:27:00,320 Speaker 1: vulnerable than our allies because we made hard choices about 370 00:27:00,440 --> 00:27:05,520 Speaker 1: energy that they refuse to make. We drilled when they moralized, 371 00:27:05,800 --> 00:27:09,879 Speaker 1: We produced when they regulated, We built when they shut down. 372 00:27:10,480 --> 00:27:14,080 Speaker 1: That's not luck, that's policy. And the contrast right now 373 00:27:14,119 --> 00:27:18,000 Speaker 1: between American consumers and European consumers is the difference between 374 00:27:18,080 --> 00:27:21,040 Speaker 1: policy that works and policy that makes you feel good. 375 00:27:22,080 --> 00:27:25,720 Speaker 1: Thirty miles of water, that's all it took to expose 376 00:27:26,320 --> 00:27:34,040 Speaker 1: fifty years of wishful thinking. The Europeans are now looking 377 00:27:34,080 --> 00:27:40,480 Speaker 1: at Russia once again. Now think about the contradiction in that. 378 00:27:42,000 --> 00:27:48,280 Speaker 1: What will increase purchasing of Russian oil do? It will 379 00:27:48,320 --> 00:27:53,280 Speaker 1: strengthen Vladimir Putin's hand in Ukraine. It will give him 380 00:27:53,320 --> 00:27:56,800 Speaker 1: the dollars that he needs, the euros that he needs 381 00:27:57,200 --> 00:28:02,720 Speaker 1: to prolong that war, or quite frankly, to increase his 382 00:28:02,840 --> 00:28:09,439 Speaker 1: activity in that area, all thirty miles of water. Not 383 00:28:09,680 --> 00:28:13,359 Speaker 1: just exposing fifty years of wishful thinking, but now putting 384 00:28:13,400 --> 00:28:16,000 Speaker 1: the European Union who says, oh, they want Ukraine to 385 00:28:16,000 --> 00:28:19,760 Speaker 1: win and they want to defend Ukraine, and now they 386 00:28:19,800 --> 00:28:25,760 Speaker 1: will actually start paying the very person they're trying to defeat. 387 00:28:27,680 --> 00:28:33,919 Speaker 1: Consumers in Europe should be furious. American foreign policy, for once, 388 00:28:35,040 --> 00:28:37,919 Speaker 1: is actually doing the right thing. Hang on, I'll be 389 00:28:38,040 --> 00:28:48,760 Speaker 1: right back. Welcome back to the Weekend with Michael Brown. 390 00:28:49,160 --> 00:28:51,680 Speaker 1: Really appreciate everybody that tunes in and listens to the program. 391 00:28:52,200 --> 00:28:54,840 Speaker 1: Tell your friends and your enemies about it. Yes, somebody 392 00:28:54,880 --> 00:28:56,480 Speaker 1: you really want to take off telling them, gole, listen 393 00:28:56,480 --> 00:28:59,440 Speaker 1: to this program. But I do appreciate this audience. Let 394 00:28:59,440 --> 00:29:01,840 Speaker 1: me paint you picture. It's two o'clock in the morning 395 00:29:01,920 --> 00:29:05,920 Speaker 1: in Havana, Cuba. It's ninety degrees outside. There's no electricity. 396 00:29:05,960 --> 00:29:07,560 Speaker 1: He hasn't been for like twelve hours. You don't have 397 00:29:07,560 --> 00:29:10,120 Speaker 1: a fan, you don't have a refrigerator. Whatever food you've 398 00:29:10,120 --> 00:29:13,000 Speaker 1: got in the house is going bad really quickly. The 399 00:29:13,040 --> 00:29:16,560 Speaker 1: water pump that serves your building it's electric, so you 400 00:29:16,640 --> 00:29:20,560 Speaker 1: living water either. And this isn't a crisis this is 401 00:29:20,640 --> 00:29:24,800 Speaker 1: just another day ending and why that's life in Cuba 402 00:29:24,920 --> 00:29:29,120 Speaker 1: right now, and it's getting worse. The Trump administration has 403 00:29:29,120 --> 00:29:33,680 Speaker 1: done something strategically shrewd that isn't getting nearly enough attention 404 00:29:33,840 --> 00:29:36,920 Speaker 1: in the American press. The cabal wants to bury this story. 405 00:29:38,000 --> 00:29:42,120 Speaker 1: Washington is taking its sixty four year trade embargo and 406 00:29:42,200 --> 00:29:45,440 Speaker 1: turned it into something with real teeth. An oil block gate, 407 00:29:45,960 --> 00:29:49,520 Speaker 1: not a sanction, not a strongly worded letter, an oil blockade. 408 00:29:49,560 --> 00:29:51,560 Speaker 1: And in a country where the power grid was already 409 00:29:51,600 --> 00:29:54,160 Speaker 1: failing for twelve or more hours a day all the time, 410 00:29:54,200 --> 00:29:59,280 Speaker 1: cutting off fuel isn't just an inconvenience. It's a tourniquet 411 00:29:59,680 --> 00:30:03,640 Speaker 1: on the entire society. Think about what flows from electricity. 412 00:30:03,880 --> 00:30:07,200 Speaker 1: We've done this before for our own lives. Food, refrigeration, 413 00:30:07,360 --> 00:30:10,520 Speaker 1: water distribution, the trucks that bring produce from the countryside 414 00:30:10,560 --> 00:30:13,160 Speaker 1: to the markets. Take away the fuel that powers all 415 00:30:13,200 --> 00:30:16,760 Speaker 1: of that. And you're not just making people uncomfortable, you 416 00:30:16,800 --> 00:30:24,360 Speaker 1: are systematically dismantling the regime's ability to keep the population fed, hydrated, 417 00:30:24,920 --> 00:30:30,200 Speaker 1: and most importantly pacified. Now, I know what some of 418 00:30:30,240 --> 00:30:32,840 Speaker 1: your thinking. That's kind of cruel, isn't it. I think 419 00:30:32,880 --> 00:30:38,080 Speaker 1: it's a fair question. Let's get some contexts. The Castro 420 00:30:38,240 --> 00:30:41,800 Speaker 1: regime has been crushing its own people for sixty four years, 421 00:30:42,160 --> 00:30:47,720 Speaker 1: not metaphorically, but through imprisonment, torture, executions, forced labor. The 422 00:30:47,840 --> 00:30:50,360 Speaker 1: Cuban people didn't choose that government. They never had the 423 00:30:50,480 --> 00:30:54,800 Speaker 1: chance to unchoose it either. And every dollar of foreign investment, 424 00:30:55,080 --> 00:30:57,840 Speaker 1: every barrel of oil that flows into that island, every 425 00:30:58,000 --> 00:31:01,280 Speaker 1: tourism euro that's spent out of a state run hotel, 426 00:31:01,480 --> 00:31:04,360 Speaker 1: that does not go to the Cuban people, It goes 427 00:31:04,400 --> 00:31:08,600 Speaker 1: to the regime. It keeps the machine running. So the 428 00:31:08,680 --> 00:31:13,360 Speaker 1: humanitarian question isn't whether it's to squeeze, it's whether this squeeze, 429 00:31:13,560 --> 00:31:16,600 Speaker 1: at this moment is the one that finally breaks the lock, 430 00:31:17,560 --> 00:31:21,600 Speaker 1: and history suggests that it might be. Here's what actually 431 00:31:21,680 --> 00:31:25,240 Speaker 1: triggers political change in Cuba. It's not the dissidents. The 432 00:31:25,280 --> 00:31:28,280 Speaker 1: regime just puts those in jail. It's not the intellectuals 433 00:31:28,560 --> 00:31:33,880 Speaker 1: they left from Miami decades ago. It's mothers, mothers of 434 00:31:34,000 --> 00:31:37,400 Speaker 1: toddlers they can't feed their kids, who walk up to 435 00:31:37,440 --> 00:31:41,280 Speaker 1: a government building and say enough now. In July of 436 00:31:41,280 --> 00:31:45,200 Speaker 1: twenty twenty one, that happened, and the regime cracked down hard. 437 00:31:45,880 --> 00:31:49,600 Speaker 1: But the world saw that, and the conditions today are 438 00:31:49,640 --> 00:31:53,680 Speaker 1: worse than they were then. Trump has reportedly floated the 439 00:31:53,720 --> 00:31:56,720 Speaker 1: idea of, and I love this phrase, a friendly takeover 440 00:31:56,760 --> 00:32:00,600 Speaker 1: of Cuba. Now, before you roll your eyes, consider we 441 00:32:00,680 --> 00:32:03,280 Speaker 1: just watched the United States negotiates a return of American 442 00:32:03,280 --> 00:32:08,120 Speaker 1: hostages from multiple countries. Simultaneously, we watch what happened with 443 00:32:08,160 --> 00:32:11,920 Speaker 1: the Chinese and Panama. We were watching Greenland. You know, 444 00:32:12,000 --> 00:32:16,719 Speaker 1: conversations happen in public. This administration doesn't treat geography as 445 00:32:16,720 --> 00:32:20,440 Speaker 1: some sort of fixed variable. It treats geography as a 446 00:32:20,520 --> 00:32:26,080 Speaker 1: negotiating position. And Cuba ninety miles from Key West, ninety 447 00:32:26,160 --> 00:32:29,520 Speaker 1: miles from the United States. It's a captive population of 448 00:32:29,600 --> 00:32:33,400 Speaker 1: eleven million people who have been living under a communist 449 00:32:33,640 --> 00:32:38,960 Speaker 1: dictatorship since before most of their grandparents were born. A 450 00:32:39,040 --> 00:32:44,200 Speaker 1: population that is right now in the dark, sweating, watching 451 00:32:44,240 --> 00:32:47,840 Speaker 1: their food spoil, wondering if the water's ever going? Is 452 00:32:47,880 --> 00:32:53,000 Speaker 1: the water going to stop next? They are sitting there 453 00:32:53,320 --> 00:32:58,760 Speaker 1: in the dark, sweating wondering. Now, the Castro family were 454 00:32:58,800 --> 00:33:03,320 Speaker 1: told is in quiet talks with US officials. The fact 455 00:33:03,360 --> 00:33:07,560 Speaker 1: that Washington is allowing some oil imports through private businesses 456 00:33:08,200 --> 00:33:13,680 Speaker 1: tells you the administration isn't trying to cause a humanitarian catastrophe. 457 00:33:13,920 --> 00:33:20,200 Speaker 1: It's trying to create leverage. And there's a difference. Leverage 458 00:33:20,200 --> 00:33:24,160 Speaker 1: is what you use when you want to deal Catastrophe 459 00:33:24,200 --> 00:33:26,480 Speaker 1: is what you get when there's no one left to 460 00:33:26,480 --> 00:33:31,160 Speaker 1: deal with. So there is a bottom line. The Cuban 461 00:33:31,200 --> 00:33:36,960 Speaker 1: regime right now is old, broke, isolate, is two gate 462 00:33:37,040 --> 00:33:43,400 Speaker 1: great patrons. Venezuela and Russia are themselves under severe economic stress. Iran, 463 00:33:43,560 --> 00:33:48,640 Speaker 1: which has been quietly filling some gaps, is now consumed 464 00:33:48,680 --> 00:33:52,800 Speaker 1: with its own existential crisis. Cubs running out of friends, 465 00:33:53,400 --> 00:33:59,360 Speaker 1: running out of fuel, running out of time, and this country, 466 00:33:59,440 --> 00:34:02,760 Speaker 1: the States of America, for the first time in decades, 467 00:34:03,400 --> 00:34:06,440 Speaker 1: as a president who actually wants to close the deal. 468 00:34:08,200 --> 00:34:13,080 Speaker 1: Whether you call it a takeover, a transition, or just 469 00:34:13,200 --> 00:34:16,759 Speaker 1: the inevitable end of a sixty four year catastrophic experiment 470 00:34:17,239 --> 00:34:22,799 Speaker 1: in communist governance, there's a window that's finally open. The 471 00:34:22,840 --> 00:34:28,200 Speaker 1: only question is whether Washington has their strategic patience to 472 00:34:28,280 --> 00:34:31,799 Speaker 1: push it all the way through. I believe that Donald 473 00:34:31,840 --> 00:34:36,160 Speaker 1: Trump does. I believe the State Department does. I believe 474 00:34:36,200 --> 00:34:40,360 Speaker 1: that Marco Rubio, who has a personal interest in seeing 475 00:34:40,400 --> 00:34:45,279 Speaker 1: the Castro regime fail has that kind of patience. But 476 00:34:45,400 --> 00:34:49,120 Speaker 1: are we going to see over here on the other side, 477 00:34:49,280 --> 00:34:53,399 Speaker 1: Congress trying to stop the president from doing what other 478 00:34:53,640 --> 00:34:56,479 Speaker 1: presidents have attempted for years? Or have we just sat 479 00:34:56,520 --> 00:34:59,400 Speaker 1: in the back and we've watched while Americans still go 480 00:34:59,440 --> 00:35:06,200 Speaker 1: to Cuba on humanitarian junkets, so called humanitarian junkins. But 481 00:35:06,239 --> 00:35:10,279 Speaker 1: what are they really doing. They're going as tourists. They 482 00:35:10,320 --> 00:35:14,040 Speaker 1: sneak in goods, they sneak in stuff, they sneak out cigars, 483 00:35:14,080 --> 00:35:16,399 Speaker 1: whatever they want to do. They go through Mexico, they 484 00:35:16,440 --> 00:35:21,759 Speaker 1: go through Canada. So that doesn't do anything to help 485 00:35:21,800 --> 00:35:25,080 Speaker 1: the Cuban people. Oh it might on the margins, you know, 486 00:35:25,160 --> 00:35:28,080 Speaker 1: some vendor somewhere might make a little scratch here and there. 487 00:35:29,120 --> 00:35:33,640 Speaker 1: But the Cuban people have been waiting for sixty four years. 488 00:35:35,360 --> 00:35:37,960 Speaker 1: My guess is they can probably handle a little more pressure, 489 00:35:38,840 --> 00:35:42,279 Speaker 1: especially if this time there's somebody on the other end 490 00:35:42,480 --> 00:35:46,600 Speaker 1: actually willing to catch them when that wall comes down. 491 00:35:48,320 --> 00:35:52,759 Speaker 1: All that's going to take is just enough pressure for 492 00:35:52,840 --> 00:35:57,920 Speaker 1: those same mothers and wives to start marching on the 493 00:35:57,960 --> 00:36:05,239 Speaker 1: capitol buildings, and enough is enough for the Castro Forraul 494 00:36:05,840 --> 00:36:08,240 Speaker 1: and all of his minions around him to look around 495 00:36:08,320 --> 00:36:11,800 Speaker 1: and say, oh, we really don't have any friends anymore. 496 00:36:12,640 --> 00:36:15,200 Speaker 1: They really can't. Oh and the only oil we're getting 497 00:36:15,640 --> 00:36:18,919 Speaker 1: is the oil that that crazy guy with the wild hair, 498 00:36:19,040 --> 00:36:22,440 Speaker 1: Donald Trump, that everybody says is crazy as letting through. 499 00:36:23,800 --> 00:36:26,759 Speaker 1: Maybe we have to sit down and talk. Maybe they 500 00:36:26,840 --> 00:36:30,520 Speaker 1: know exactly what happened in Venezuela. Maduro sleeping in the 501 00:36:30,520 --> 00:36:33,520 Speaker 1: middle of the night, not in an apartment building, not 502 00:36:33,640 --> 00:36:37,600 Speaker 1: in a home somewhere, but on a military base, suddenly 503 00:36:37,760 --> 00:36:43,560 Speaker 1: just disappears. Sitting in a New York jail, Cuba. With 504 00:36:43,800 --> 00:36:48,719 Speaker 1: everything else going on in the world, watch Cuba. We 505 00:36:48,800 --> 00:36:52,360 Speaker 1: might be liberating the Cuban people too. What a fascinating 506 00:36:52,360 --> 00:36:55,719 Speaker 1: time to be alive. Everybody, have a great weekend. I'll 507 00:36:55,719 --> 00:37:01,600 Speaker 1: talk to you next weekend.