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Speaker 1: Extra special and happier with the return of retired Lieutenant

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Speaker 1: Colonel Daniel Davis what we call what he calls the

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Speaker 1: Daniel Davis Deep Dive. You can follow that alliterative podcast.

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Speaker 1: Just find out where you get your regular podcasts and

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Speaker 1: search for Daniel Davis Deep Dive. Always some excellent conversation

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Speaker 1: throughout the week, and I always look forward to our

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Speaker 1: conversations on Tuesdays at this time. Welcome back, sir. It's

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Speaker 1: a pleasure as always to have you on.

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Speaker 2: Always my pleasure to be here, Brian. I always look

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Speaker 2: forward to this myself.

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Speaker 1: I'm glad you do. It's a great segment and I

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Speaker 1: always end up learning a lot and sort of always

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Speaker 1: adjust my position because you really have an excellent way

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Speaker 1: of well maybe restating what we are fed in the

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Speaker 1: mainstream media's and that's it's a welcome, refreshing thing. So

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Speaker 1: it's the second it's two years since the attack on Israel.

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Speaker 1: They have twelve hundred people killed and two hundred and

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Speaker 1: fifty hostages taken. It's reported they have forty eight and

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Speaker 1: Israel says, well, we only think twenty of them are

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Speaker 1: still alive. But a critical negotiation point as we enter

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Speaker 1: the sit down discussions, or rather info ones, you can

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Speaker 1: tell us what's going on with that. I thought the

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Speaker 1: initial predicate was, well, we'll stop fighting when you release

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Speaker 1: the hostages. Is some us presented with a stumbling block

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Speaker 1: because maybe a lot of them, maybe all of them,

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Speaker 1: are not even alive. I know the family members would

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Speaker 1: want the bodies returned, but do they do they have

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Speaker 1: anything to really turn over anymore? Now?

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Speaker 2: I think they do. That's certainly been the case. They've

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Speaker 2: been pretty open about how many are alive and how

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Speaker 2: many you're not, so I at least I certainly hope

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Speaker 2: that's the case. That would be a pretty cruel twist

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Speaker 2: if there was really not alive at all, But you know,

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Speaker 2: you couldn't hide that, so if you want the war

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Speaker 2: to come to an end, that would be a problem.

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Speaker 2: And by having some alive that's always been there one

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Speaker 2: of the very few, if not only, negotiating cards that

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Speaker 2: they could play. If they didn't have those, then once

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Speaker 2: that became apparent, then there would be no reason for

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Speaker 2: Israel to do anything except just you know, put the

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Speaker 2: floor of the gas of the floor, et cetera, and

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Speaker 2: drive in militarily. So I don't I think that they

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Speaker 2: would do that, but we'll find out pretty soon. In fact,

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Speaker 2: right now there is meetings going on in Egypt for

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Speaker 2: the second day in a row to try to bring

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Speaker 2: it into this And to your point a minute ago,

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Speaker 2: there was no specific connection to the fighting will stop

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Speaker 2: as soon as the hostage is to release. In fact,

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Speaker 2: President Trump has repeatedly asked since he made this announcement

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Speaker 2: a couple of days ago, that he wants Israel to

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Speaker 2: stop shooting right now wild the negotiations to get the

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Speaker 2: hostages back and all the other terms so that we

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Speaker 2: can bring it into the war. But Israel has not

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Speaker 2: done that, and so the fighting continues to go on

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Speaker 2: as well, and the negotiations continue simultaneously.

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Speaker 1: Well, I hate to attempt to draw parallels with Russia

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Speaker 1: and Ukraine, but Israel has made some I know, it's

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Speaker 1: been bloody, and some may argue it's immoral or whatever,

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Speaker 1: whatever your position is relative to Israel going after God.

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Speaker 1: They've obviously taken over a lot of land, they've recaptured some,

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Speaker 1: they've destroyed some of the infrastructure. Their quote unquote winning

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Speaker 1: I mean noting the civilian casualties. They're winning and making

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Speaker 1: progress in guys and much in the same way Russia

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Speaker 1: continues to win and make progress in Ukraine. Considering you

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Speaker 1: mentioned the hostages are about the only bargaining chip Amas has.

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Speaker 1: Are we looking at kind of a comparable thing. They're

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Speaker 1: in a sense of maybe denial about the relative strength.

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Speaker 1: I mean, are they planning on fighting till the last

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Speaker 1: man is standing? What are their options for Hamas?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I think that in some ways that the parallels

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Speaker 2: are there, As you mentioned, I mean, there is one

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Speaker 2: side has a decisive advantage over the other, and one

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Speaker 2: wants to have negotiations while they're spighting wants to have

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Speaker 2: no negotiations. But other than that, there's some pretty big

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Speaker 2: differences too, in that I don't think that there's anything

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Speaker 2: militarily left to accomplish for Israel. They're just blowing stuff up,

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Speaker 2: and I'm not sure how that's useful to their objectives,

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Speaker 2: because you can't literally kill your way to victory in here.

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Speaker 2: They remember, they went from the north, you know, shortly

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Speaker 2: after ten seven, which is today's the two year anniversary,

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Speaker 2: that all the way down through Rafa, all the way

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Speaker 2: down to the Egyptian Gate, and then they kind of

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Speaker 2: started over. So now then they're moving south again, and

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Speaker 2: there's almost nothing. But you know, whatever's left of not rubble,

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Speaker 2: they're turning that into rubble now. But there's no like

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Speaker 2: actual combat actions going on, so it's kind of just

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Speaker 2: blowing a bunch of stuff up. And listen, you know,

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Speaker 2: the Palacti and people are the huge losers in all

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Speaker 2: of this. Whether it's Hamas doing stuff, it's it's you know,

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Speaker 2: dragging their feet on a negotiation, whether it's the Israeli

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Speaker 2: defense forces firing into stuff that has no apparent military value,

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Speaker 2: I don't know, but I do know that those people

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Speaker 2: are suffering, and I hope for everybody's sake there this

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Speaker 2: war comes to an end very very quickly.

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Speaker 1: Okay, Now, if Israel continues down its current path, and

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Speaker 1: you know, Achieese, you said, they've already achieved military victory,

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Speaker 1: but you know, they do whatever they think they need

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Speaker 1: to do in the in the area. But does that

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Speaker 1: mean they're going to be an occupying force on a

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Speaker 1: going forward basis? And what's that going to look like

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Speaker 1: Israel going forward?

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Speaker 2: Now, that's one of the big sticking points that's that's

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Speaker 2: actually preventing the accomplishment right now, is the definition on

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Speaker 2: what these points mean these twenty points that President Trump's

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Speaker 2: team came up with, it Israel says they agreed to.

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Speaker 2: But then when you heard what Benjamin Attya, who said

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Speaker 2: after the press conference with Trump, there's some pretty big differences,

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Speaker 2: and you just touched on one of them. Where As

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Speaker 2: the Trump plan said that there would be an independent force,

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Speaker 2: possibly an Arab force, that everyone would agree to, that

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Speaker 2: would provide security, that would train a new Palestinian police

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Speaker 2: force to keep civil security, et cetera. But then the

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Speaker 2: Benjamin Attanyah who said we will provide security indefinitely, he

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Speaker 2: didn't even put a potential endpoint on it. He just

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Speaker 2: said that's what we're gonna do. So those are huge,

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Speaker 2: huge differences, and I think part of what the Hamas

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Speaker 2: negotiators are trying to figure out right now and to

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Speaker 2: try to assess what actually is the definition of who's

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Speaker 2: going to do, what will be the withdrawal lines, what

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Speaker 2: will be the withdrawal time lines, et cetera. Because Hamas

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Speaker 2: has categorically said we will stop fighting, we will return

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Speaker 2: all the hostage, and we will leave and lay down

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Speaker 2: our arms. So they have said yes to the major issues,

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Speaker 2: but the execution of the other details is a big

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Speaker 2: sticking point so far.

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Speaker 1: Well, and being a member of Hamas and saying Okay,

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Speaker 1: we'll vacate the territory doesn't mean that the ideas that

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Speaker 1: are shared that Hamas has the idea that Israel's evil

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Speaker 1: from the river to the sea. The concepts that, you know,

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Speaker 1: are that that really make up what Hamas is all about.

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Speaker 1: The hearts and minds of the people might still be

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Speaker 1: wed to those philosophies. We've talked about this before. You

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Speaker 1: can't kill your way into winning the hearts and minds

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Speaker 1: of people.

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Speaker 2: Well, listen, there's there's some some pretty hard things that

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Speaker 2: everybody's gonna have to face here. Number one, it's the

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Speaker 2: term Hamas is just the tag that we use, right,

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Speaker 2: But when you as a people have been starved, have

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Speaker 2: been bombed, and have the entire infrastructure raised to the ground,

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Speaker 2: that's not going to engender a lot of positive thoughts

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Speaker 2: towards the occupying power, the power that did that. So

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Speaker 2: I don't know how you erase that. That's one of

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Speaker 2: the things that Benjamin and Yaho said is a prerequisite

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Speaker 2: for all of this is that there be a basically

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Speaker 2: a re education program and retraining, you know, to teach

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Speaker 2: the new children from the Hamas, from the Palestinians, et cetera.

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Speaker 2: But honestly, that's that's I think an impossible ask that

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Speaker 2: you can't call it. People don't feel bad about what

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Speaker 2: we did because of all this stuff.

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Speaker 1: I don't know how you square this circle. Maybe subject

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Speaker 1: everyone to a mind control experiment. I'll of like a

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Speaker 1: clockwork orange where you tie them down and you brainwash

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Speaker 1: them and then they submit to your ideology. There's an answer,

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Speaker 1: But no, that's not going to happen. All right, Well,

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Speaker 1: I guess real quick on if Israel is not the

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Speaker 1: one providing this security, they have an army. We must

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Speaker 1: acknowledge there at least in a position to make an

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Speaker 1: argument that they're capable of doing that. And I understand

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Speaker 1: all the objections to it. Don't get me wrong. Who

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Speaker 1: would be that force, because it seems to me that

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Speaker 1: you're going to have some the necessity is going to

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Speaker 1: be some sort of peace keeping force like law enforcement officers.

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Speaker 1: Who's going to do that. The blue hair the light

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Speaker 1: blue hats aren't going to do that.

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Speaker 2: No, And that's one of the things they're talking about

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Speaker 2: right now. And there is a path here that could

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Speaker 2: be positive and it could help out because one of

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Speaker 2: the President Trump's you know, signature ideals and things that

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Speaker 2: he wants as well as Israel then Yahoo, is that

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Speaker 2: they want the expansion of the Abraham Accords. Right, So

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Speaker 2: this could be an opportunity to say, hey, some of

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Speaker 2: these countries that we want to have good relations with

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Speaker 2: and some that we already do, let's have some of

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Speaker 2: the troops from THEIRS who would be you know, honest

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Speaker 2: brokers between and respected by both parties. So there is

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Speaker 2: a possibility here as opposed to the blue hats you mentioned.

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Speaker 1: You know what, that's the sound and logical proposal as

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Speaker 1: it initially hits me. I like that. You know, you

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Speaker 1: have fellow Middle Eastern countries providing the stability they need.

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Speaker 1: And they're not pro Israel or pro Hamas. They just

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Speaker 1: live in that area and they want some peace and

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Speaker 1: sensibility and trading partners so they can all live happily

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Speaker 1: ever after. Right, let's keep that in mind as a

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Speaker 1: potential solution to the problem. Pivoting over, Donald Trump said

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Speaker 1: he hasn't quite decided about sending Tomahawk missiles. I suppose

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Speaker 1: he'd give them the NATO, and NATO would hand them

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Speaker 1: over to Ukraine. Is there anything different between that and

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Speaker 1: us giving them directly to Ukraine? Russia says, listen, that'll

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Speaker 1: be the end of any relationship we have left if

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Speaker 1: you do that. Because apparently the Tomahawks have a range

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Speaker 1: that might allow Ukraine to hit Moscow.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, they have, some variants are as. Different variants have

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Speaker 2: range of up to one thy five hundred miles, which

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Speaker 2: is like three or four times longer than even the

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Speaker 2: A tacklems that we have for the regular long range missiles.

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Speaker 2: But this one is a bit more problematic. You can't

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Speaker 2: just give these missiles to Ukraine. They require to be

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Speaker 2: fired from either strategic bombers that Ukraine doesn't have, from

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Speaker 2: hard silos or systems that call the typhoon that only

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Speaker 2: we have and there's only a few of them, or

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Speaker 2: ballistic missile submarines so Ukraine didn't have very many of those,

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Speaker 2: as I recall. So for these to be used, it

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Speaker 2: could only be done expressly by American military, which is

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Speaker 2: why Russia is reacting much more strong to this one,

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Speaker 2: because only American military in all fast facets of the

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Speaker 2: launch cycle would be doing this, and then it would

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Speaker 2: be a direct attack by the United States into Russia.

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Speaker 2: And that's why they are saying, no, this is not

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Speaker 2: like F sixteen's or attackems or hamars or any of

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Speaker 2: those other things. This one's different, and this is not

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Speaker 2: someplace we need to go. It will not. Let me

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Speaker 2: just categorically state it will not change the course of

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Speaker 2: the war, but it could be a provoca provocation for escalation.

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Speaker 2: Not a good move.

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Speaker 1: It is rather disturbing because I've heard you make comments

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Speaker 1: like that before, and I've heard others make the same comments.

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Speaker 1: It's just not a pervasive point. People just talk about

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Speaker 1: are we going to give Tomahawk missiles either indirectly or directly,

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Speaker 1: and you think it's just like a shipment of a box.

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Speaker 1: You give it to them and they can launch them.

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Speaker 1: The fact that it will absolutely require American military personnel

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Speaker 1: and American military hardware, that Ukraine does not operate that

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Speaker 1: clearly implicates us directly. It's like boots on the ground

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Speaker 1: kind of activity. How do you think Russia would respond

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Speaker 1: to that? I know world War three is certainly a possibility,

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Speaker 1: but short of like declaring war on the United States,

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Speaker 1: what would there sort of militarily appropriate action be. Daniel Davis.

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Speaker 2: One of the things we've seen pretty consistently from Russia

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Speaker 2: throughout is that things that we would ordinarily consider acts

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Speaker 2: of war, and if people did to us, we'd lose

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Speaker 2: our minds and we would be attacking somebody the next hour.

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Speaker 2: Russia has shown much more sober viewpoint on this, and

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Speaker 2: they have not taken action that would then precipitate an

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Speaker 2: expansion of the war directly into NATO. Too Many people

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Speaker 2: in the West, I think, say, because Russia never has

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Speaker 2: up to that point, then there's literally anything we can

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Speaker 2: do and there will be a catastrophic response. I'm not

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Speaker 2: sure that that's going to always be a safe bet,

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Speaker 2: because we just never know how far we can push

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Speaker 2: Russia until finally there is a red line beyond which

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Speaker 2: they won't and they're being pretty pretty aggressive on talking

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Speaker 2: about one. But I don't know if even this would

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Speaker 2: result in it, because they would see it's not going

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Speaker 2: to change the outcome and they still have a path

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Speaker 2: to a military victory over Ukraine. So I would wager

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Speaker 2: that they probably would not start a war with US,

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Speaker 2: because then that would undo nearly everything that they had

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Speaker 2: done and put them into this massive fight. It would

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Speaker 2: be horrible for us, because now then we would be

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Speaker 2: targets when we haven't been before, so it would be

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Speaker 2: stupid to the highest degree. But I would bet that

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Speaker 2: Russia is not going to start a war even if

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Speaker 2: we do this, but they may do something else indirectly,

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Speaker 2: like against our interest elsewhere in the world, which won't

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Speaker 2: be good.

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Speaker 1: Well, and there always is at some point a straw

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Speaker 1: that will break the camel's back. So whether or not

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Speaker 1: this is going to do it or not, I guess

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Speaker 1: the most important point on this is giving the Tomahawk missiles,

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Speaker 1: whether you and I are operating them or they can

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Speaker 1: operate them on their own, is not going to help

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Speaker 1: them militarily. It's a pointless effort.

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Speaker 2: That is my frustration. Why take the risk? Why find out?

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Speaker 2: Is this the redline beyond which they won't be pushed

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Speaker 2: or will they go past this one too? When it

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Speaker 2: won't change the outcome, It won't make Ukraine win, it

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Speaker 2: won't make Russia lose, but it will put us at risk,

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Speaker 2: and so then what is the point to doing And

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Speaker 2: by the way, we don't even have too many of

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Speaker 2: these our own. Why do I want to dwindle down

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Speaker 2: my own stockpile when we could really use those if

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Speaker 2: we get into a war, say with China or Russia

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Speaker 2: in the future, we need to hold onto those.

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Speaker 1: Another outstanding point, which is pretty much the case with

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Speaker 1: all military hardware we're talking about. Daniel Davis Deep Dive

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Speaker 1: finding where you get your podcasts? Retired Lieutenant Colonel Daniel Davis.

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Speaker 1: Great food for thought today. As always a love you man.

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Speaker 1: We'll talk next Tuesday. Have a great week, my pleasure.

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Speaker 1: Have a good one, Brian, take care brother. Coming to

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Speaker 1: eight forty two. If you have KCY talk station, We're

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Speaker 1: gonna learn about breast cancer. It's Breast Cancer Awareness Month.