1 00:00:02,000 --> 00:00:05,600 Speaker 1: Mike Brown the situation anyway, I thought i'd put one through. 2 00:00:06,240 --> 00:00:08,200 Speaker 1: Follow me up, back me up, take my side, back 3 00:00:08,280 --> 00:00:10,080 Speaker 1: me up, back me up, follow me up, follow me up, 4 00:00:10,080 --> 00:00:12,239 Speaker 1: follow me up, back me up, take my side, take 5 00:00:12,280 --> 00:00:14,400 Speaker 1: my side, follow me up, back me up. Thanks so much. 6 00:00:18,400 --> 00:00:22,479 Speaker 2: Okay, I've said it before and I'll probably say it again. 7 00:00:23,200 --> 00:00:25,000 Speaker 3: I don't leave them, I just play them. 8 00:00:25,400 --> 00:00:28,120 Speaker 4: I have a friend that is going to auctioneer school 9 00:00:28,400 --> 00:00:33,720 Speaker 4: this week. She, in her I won't call it a 10 00:00:33,760 --> 00:00:36,400 Speaker 4: midlife crisis, but in her desire to continue to always 11 00:00:36,520 --> 00:00:40,479 Speaker 4: try new things, decided that her kids are off on 12 00:00:40,560 --> 00:00:44,960 Speaker 4: suntrip for spring break and there's a auctioneer class that 13 00:00:45,120 --> 00:00:47,559 Speaker 4: is exactly the same length of the spring break, and 14 00:00:47,600 --> 00:00:52,440 Speaker 4: so she's going to auctioneer class. And she posted on 15 00:00:52,479 --> 00:00:56,040 Speaker 4: Instagram last night that as part of the prep, you 16 00:00:56,080 --> 00:01:00,800 Speaker 4: have to start doing all these tongue twisters and memorize them. 17 00:01:00,840 --> 00:01:03,200 Speaker 2: And so if he sells sells by the sea shore, 18 00:01:03,320 --> 00:01:07,200 Speaker 2: Yeah right, exactly, Peter. Her first attempt was pretty much 19 00:01:07,240 --> 00:01:09,760 Speaker 2: like that. So when I heard that talk back, I thought, well, 20 00:01:09,880 --> 00:01:13,480 Speaker 2: maybe he's an auctionineering school. Oh glad, you go down, 21 00:01:13,520 --> 00:01:17,520 Speaker 2: you go back and forth, you go whatever. 22 00:01:18,680 --> 00:01:19,800 Speaker 3: Just Starbaro this morning. 23 00:01:19,920 --> 00:01:22,000 Speaker 5: I will say though, that you know, usually when you 24 00:01:22,040 --> 00:01:26,560 Speaker 5: look at the cost of war, you look at how 25 00:01:26,640 --> 00:01:28,520 Speaker 5: much a war is costing every day. 26 00:01:28,920 --> 00:01:30,600 Speaker 3: And of course, because. 27 00:01:30,280 --> 00:01:33,080 Speaker 5: We're thirty nine trillion dollars in debt and nobody in 28 00:01:33,200 --> 00:01:35,800 Speaker 5: Washington seems to give a damn, nobody's going to be 29 00:01:35,800 --> 00:01:38,959 Speaker 5: paying attention to how much this is costing the American 30 00:01:39,040 --> 00:01:41,080 Speaker 5: tax payers every day. But the one thing that they 31 00:01:41,120 --> 00:01:42,640 Speaker 5: are going to see. 32 00:01:42,480 --> 00:01:43,920 Speaker 3: Gas prices exploding. 33 00:01:43,959 --> 00:01:47,000 Speaker 5: There were a couple of gas stations around here where 34 00:01:47,160 --> 00:01:51,280 Speaker 5: gas was getting close to four dollars a gallon. 35 00:01:52,400 --> 00:01:53,480 Speaker 3: That when you. 36 00:01:53,400 --> 00:01:56,200 Speaker 5: Look at all the other pressures this economy is facing, 37 00:01:56,280 --> 00:01:59,160 Speaker 5: that's something that you know, having gas. If this war 38 00:01:59,240 --> 00:02:02,600 Speaker 5: continues in other week, guess prices around America are going 39 00:02:02,640 --> 00:02:05,680 Speaker 5: to be over four dollars a gallon most likely that's 40 00:02:05,880 --> 00:02:06,560 Speaker 5: just something. 41 00:02:06,920 --> 00:02:09,120 Speaker 3: With oil over one hundred dollars a barrel. 42 00:02:09,200 --> 00:02:13,720 Speaker 5: If the war continues and the straits remain closed, that's 43 00:02:13,960 --> 00:02:17,960 Speaker 5: just something that American consumers are not going to take. 44 00:02:18,760 --> 00:02:21,840 Speaker 5: And so there's also that clock ticking that may not 45 00:02:21,880 --> 00:02:25,640 Speaker 5: have been ticking in past conflicts and past wars. But 46 00:02:25,680 --> 00:02:32,119 Speaker 5: I will tell you at this stage, all evidence suggests 47 00:02:32,120 --> 00:02:36,160 Speaker 5: that Donald Trump is trying to leverage for the best deal, 48 00:02:36,480 --> 00:02:40,519 Speaker 5: the best exit not three months from now, I think 49 00:02:40,639 --> 00:02:44,440 Speaker 5: much more likely to be sooner rather than later. Even 50 00:02:44,480 --> 00:02:49,600 Speaker 5: if the Defense Departments, quoting Karen and Richard Carpenter with 51 00:02:49,720 --> 00:02:53,280 Speaker 5: We've only just begun. I'm curious whether they're going to 52 00:02:53,639 --> 00:02:55,120 Speaker 5: have a video out with that. 53 00:02:55,240 --> 00:03:01,799 Speaker 3: I doubt it. No, probably not. So here are gas? Is? 54 00:03:02,480 --> 00:03:05,239 Speaker 4: Our oil is back down below? I've checked this morning. 55 00:03:05,760 --> 00:03:08,160 Speaker 4: Let's see if they think is Oh yeah, we's Texas. 56 00:03:08,160 --> 00:03:11,280 Speaker 4: Eighty three dollars a barrel WTI crew right now is 57 00:03:11,320 --> 00:03:14,280 Speaker 4: at eighty four oh one, eighty three ninety nine. I'm sorry, 58 00:03:14,280 --> 00:03:16,520 Speaker 4: eighty four o three, eighty four oh two, eighty four 59 00:03:16,560 --> 00:03:18,840 Speaker 4: oh five, oh up and down up, not it's not 60 00:03:18,919 --> 00:03:21,760 Speaker 4: anywhere near on a hundred dollars a barrel. Gas has 61 00:03:21,800 --> 00:03:26,320 Speaker 4: been at four dollars a gallon many times five six 62 00:03:26,360 --> 00:03:28,560 Speaker 4: seven dollars a gallons. If you remember covid as, if 63 00:03:28,600 --> 00:03:33,639 Speaker 4: I remember the Biden administrations, you might remember squat. When 64 00:03:33,680 --> 00:03:37,440 Speaker 4: General MacArthur stood on the deck of the USS Missouri 65 00:03:37,480 --> 00:03:41,640 Speaker 4: on September two, nineteen forty five, the United States had 66 00:03:41,680 --> 00:03:46,800 Speaker 4: achieved something almost unique and modern military history at an 67 00:03:46,920 --> 00:03:54,800 Speaker 4: enemy's complete, formal, unconditional capitulation. It wasn't a ceasefire, It 68 00:03:54,920 --> 00:03:59,360 Speaker 4: wasn't an armistice, It wasn't a negotiated withdrawal from face 69 00:03:59,360 --> 00:04:04,680 Speaker 4: saving language for both sides. It was surrender. The enemy's 70 00:04:04,760 --> 00:04:10,480 Speaker 4: military apparatus was destroyed, its political leadership is either dead, 71 00:04:10,480 --> 00:04:15,080 Speaker 4: imprison or neutered, and the occupying force physically rewrote the 72 00:04:15,160 --> 00:04:20,160 Speaker 4: country's constitution. We literally sat down and rewrote Japan's constitution 73 00:04:20,240 --> 00:04:22,040 Speaker 4: and said, here's what you're going to govern your here's 74 00:04:22,040 --> 00:04:27,320 Speaker 4: how you're going to govern yourself. Every single military action 75 00:04:27,480 --> 00:04:31,280 Speaker 4: since then has fallen short of that standard. 76 00:04:32,279 --> 00:04:33,599 Speaker 3: And here's a key. 77 00:04:34,400 --> 00:04:39,520 Speaker 4: Almost every one of those shorter surrender outcomes has eventually 78 00:04:39,600 --> 00:04:44,560 Speaker 4: required a return visit at a greater cost, or a 79 00:04:44,640 --> 00:04:52,720 Speaker 4: continuing presence at a huge cost. Korea resulted in an armistice. 80 00:04:52,920 --> 00:04:55,640 Speaker 4: The Korean War, for those of you who have been 81 00:04:55,640 --> 00:04:59,800 Speaker 4: living under a rock somewhere, is still an ongoing conflict. 82 00:05:01,040 --> 00:05:02,520 Speaker 3: Oh yeah, we have an armistice. 83 00:05:02,920 --> 00:05:07,919 Speaker 4: We've agreed kind of like a ceasefire in nineteen fifty three. 84 00:05:08,040 --> 00:05:13,720 Speaker 4: We are still there. And since that time nineteen fifty three, 85 00:05:14,279 --> 00:05:20,960 Speaker 4: North Korea has now achieved nuclear status. They have nuclear weapons. 86 00:05:21,839 --> 00:05:28,800 Speaker 4: Vietnam that resulted in a withdrawal nineteen seventy five, fifty 87 00:05:28,800 --> 00:05:31,320 Speaker 4: eight thousand dead for a country that went communist anyway. 88 00:05:33,200 --> 00:05:39,080 Speaker 4: Gulf War one, Desert Storm Bush forty one stops at 89 00:05:39,080 --> 00:05:44,640 Speaker 4: Baghdad in nineteen ninety one. Saddam Hussein Sadam Is he 90 00:05:44,800 --> 00:05:46,320 Speaker 4: used to like to say, Sadam. 91 00:05:46,800 --> 00:05:49,760 Speaker 3: He reconstituted Bush forty three. 92 00:05:49,839 --> 00:05:51,920 Speaker 4: My old boss goes back in two thousand and three 93 00:05:52,000 --> 00:05:54,880 Speaker 4: at vastly greater costs and blood, treasure, and of course 94 00:05:55,080 --> 00:06:00,760 Speaker 4: strategic coherence. And we also engaged in what's I hear 95 00:06:00,800 --> 00:06:05,120 Speaker 4: the word all the time now, bathification. We took the 96 00:06:05,160 --> 00:06:11,520 Speaker 4: bath party, Saddam's party, and we eliminated everyone, and I 97 00:06:11,560 --> 00:06:14,960 Speaker 4: mean everyone down to their own I mean, even a 98 00:06:15,000 --> 00:06:18,360 Speaker 4: dictatorship has a deep state, even a dictatorship has an 99 00:06:18,360 --> 00:06:20,200 Speaker 4: administrative state, and. 100 00:06:20,120 --> 00:06:21,920 Speaker 3: We eliminated all of them. 101 00:06:22,720 --> 00:06:26,440 Speaker 4: There was nobody to, you know, like produce an electric bill. 102 00:06:26,720 --> 00:06:29,159 Speaker 4: There was nobody to produce a water bill. There was 103 00:06:29,160 --> 00:06:33,120 Speaker 4: nobody to do anything you need a driver's light. There 104 00:06:33,120 --> 00:06:39,160 Speaker 4: were no DMV in Floyd. There was nothing Afghanistan twenty years, 105 00:06:39,200 --> 00:06:45,520 Speaker 4: no clear terminal objective, a humiliating withdrawal. Taliban I can 106 00:06:45,560 --> 00:06:53,880 Speaker 4: power within weeks. IRAQ round two. Remember the I forget 107 00:06:53,880 --> 00:06:55,600 Speaker 4: which aircraft carry I think it was, yeah, one of 108 00:06:55,640 --> 00:07:00,000 Speaker 4: those aircraft carrier because my boss landed on it. Mission accomplished, 109 00:07:01,360 --> 00:07:07,080 Speaker 4: the big banner, mission accomplished. Combat operations have accomplished what 110 00:07:07,120 --> 00:07:10,200 Speaker 4: they intended to accomplish. So Carl Ros says, put a 111 00:07:10,240 --> 00:07:13,400 Speaker 4: big banner up, that says mission accomplished. Bush puts on 112 00:07:13,440 --> 00:07:17,320 Speaker 4: his white suit, lands, gets up, walks, you know, with 113 00:07:17,400 --> 00:07:21,200 Speaker 4: that cowboys swagger that my boss had, walks over and 114 00:07:21,240 --> 00:07:24,200 Speaker 4: then after that mission accomplished sign, we have a decade 115 00:07:24,200 --> 00:07:27,960 Speaker 4: of insurgency and then we get ices and then we're 116 00:07:28,000 --> 00:07:33,200 Speaker 4: still there. We got ices on top of it. That 117 00:07:33,280 --> 00:07:39,880 Speaker 4: pattern is not subtle. Half measures don't end wars. They 118 00:07:39,920 --> 00:07:42,240 Speaker 4: pause them, I guess, for lack of a better term, 119 00:07:42,760 --> 00:07:46,200 Speaker 4: and then we reload them later at a higher cost. 120 00:07:48,120 --> 00:07:50,440 Speaker 4: Here's what the panic merchants, I want to call them 121 00:07:50,520 --> 00:07:54,280 Speaker 4: panic merchants. Here's what they won't tell you. One hundred 122 00:07:54,320 --> 00:07:58,760 Speaker 4: dollars barrel oil is not a catastrophe by historical standards. 123 00:07:59,360 --> 00:08:01,200 Speaker 4: Yet if you look up today, you just heard that 124 00:08:01,320 --> 00:08:03,680 Speaker 4: was there was star barrel This morning. Oh my gosh, 125 00:08:03,840 --> 00:08:07,080 Speaker 4: gas might get the four dollars a gallon. Oil might 126 00:08:07,800 --> 00:08:09,840 Speaker 4: cross over to one hundred dollars a barrel. Well, let's 127 00:08:09,960 --> 00:08:12,920 Speaker 4: always say it's eighty four forty now, maybe by the 128 00:08:12,960 --> 00:08:16,400 Speaker 4: time if CNBC keeps set up, maybe eight by the 129 00:08:16,480 --> 00:08:18,240 Speaker 4: end of this segment. At the time I finished, you know, 130 00:08:18,800 --> 00:08:22,000 Speaker 4: yeah about it, we'll be up to eighty five dollars 131 00:08:22,040 --> 00:08:25,520 Speaker 4: a barrel. June two thousand and eight. I know it's 132 00:08:25,560 --> 00:08:27,680 Speaker 4: the dark ages, it's a long time ago. June two 133 00:08:27,720 --> 00:08:33,440 Speaker 4: thousand and eight. Try to stretch your mind back wt 134 00:08:33,600 --> 00:08:36,440 Speaker 4: I one hundred and forty seven dollars a barrel. The 135 00:08:36,520 --> 00:08:40,640 Speaker 4: economy survived. Now, the financial crisis that followed in two 136 00:08:40,679 --> 00:08:44,400 Speaker 4: thousand and eight was caused by mortgage derivities. It was 137 00:08:44,440 --> 00:08:47,120 Speaker 4: not caused by the price of oil. A barrel of oil. 138 00:08:48,240 --> 00:08:54,640 Speaker 4: March twenty twenty two, post Russian Ukraine or slight incusion, 139 00:08:54,840 --> 00:08:59,600 Speaker 4: as Biden said, into Ukraine, one hundred and thirty dollars 140 00:08:59,600 --> 00:09:03,400 Speaker 4: a barrel. We survived that too, the current spike two 141 00:09:03,520 --> 00:09:07,480 Speaker 4: hundred dollars, followed by a retreat to ninety dollars. And 142 00:09:07,520 --> 00:09:09,960 Speaker 4: this morning, as I look up, is that eighty four 143 00:09:10,000 --> 00:09:14,199 Speaker 4: dollars and twenty six a barrel in energy market terms. 144 00:09:14,200 --> 00:09:19,079 Speaker 4: That's a rounding error compared to prior crises. What changed 145 00:09:19,160 --> 00:09:24,000 Speaker 4: isn't the economics. What's changed has been you have been 146 00:09:24,120 --> 00:09:29,600 Speaker 4: brainwashed in your your tolerance for economic pain in service 147 00:09:29,679 --> 00:09:38,760 Speaker 4: of a strategic objective has been hoodwinked. Has has been 148 00:09:40,520 --> 00:09:43,199 Speaker 4: some sort of I don't know, hypnosis. I don't know 149 00:09:43,240 --> 00:09:48,120 Speaker 4: what it is. But Americans in nineteen forty two, God, 150 00:09:48,160 --> 00:09:51,480 Speaker 4: we were tough old birds. In nineteen forty two. We 151 00:09:51,640 --> 00:09:56,359 Speaker 4: accepted rationing of gasoline, rubber, meat, sugar, even nylon stockings. 152 00:09:56,559 --> 00:09:58,600 Speaker 4: You know, remember that time when they had this little 153 00:09:58,640 --> 00:10:04,640 Speaker 4: scene running up the back. They bought war bonds. I 154 00:10:04,679 --> 00:10:07,760 Speaker 4: think I still have somewhere in you know, the collection 155 00:10:07,800 --> 00:10:09,080 Speaker 4: of stuff from my grandparents. 156 00:10:09,559 --> 00:10:10,160 Speaker 3: I still have. 157 00:10:11,760 --> 00:10:17,280 Speaker 4: Some of the ration coupons, and I've never cashed them in. 158 00:10:17,720 --> 00:10:21,880 Speaker 4: But we found in Tamra's parents stuff some war bonds, 159 00:10:22,960 --> 00:10:25,040 Speaker 4: and I, yeah, so cash them, and let's let's frame 160 00:10:25,080 --> 00:10:27,800 Speaker 4: them and keep them war bonds. They bought war bonds, 161 00:10:27,840 --> 00:10:31,080 Speaker 4: They sent their sons. The entire civilian economy of this 162 00:10:31,160 --> 00:10:34,480 Speaker 4: country got subordinated to the war effort, and nobody called 163 00:10:34,640 --> 00:10:37,680 Speaker 4: FDR A warmonder after six weeks and demanded, yeah, you 164 00:10:37,679 --> 00:10:40,440 Speaker 4: need to sit down here at heto and negotiate with him. 165 00:10:40,600 --> 00:10:42,440 Speaker 4: So the question isn't why oil went in tow one 166 00:10:42,480 --> 00:10:45,760 Speaker 4: hundred dollars. The question is why a generation that ran 167 00:10:45,880 --> 00:10:49,640 Speaker 4: up thirty some trillion dollars in national debt without even 168 00:10:49,720 --> 00:10:52,680 Speaker 4: thinking about it is suddenly, all of a sudden, we 169 00:10:52,720 --> 00:10:56,200 Speaker 4: are fiscally and economically so sober in this moment that 170 00:10:56,240 --> 00:11:00,480 Speaker 4: there's a strategic that there is a strategic objective worth achieving. 171 00:11:02,559 --> 00:11:06,640 Speaker 4: I think there I put together seven pillars of American 172 00:11:06,840 --> 00:11:10,600 Speaker 4: strategic weakness, and this is where I think it gets uncomfortable. 173 00:11:11,320 --> 00:11:13,080 Speaker 4: This is very uncomfortable for me, and I think it's 174 00:11:13,080 --> 00:11:16,200 Speaker 4: gonna be uncomfortable for you because the answer is not 175 00:11:16,360 --> 00:11:20,719 Speaker 4: just one thing. It's a convergence of well I describe. 176 00:11:20,360 --> 00:11:21,800 Speaker 3: As structural rot. 177 00:11:23,200 --> 00:11:29,720 Speaker 4: This nation is just suffering through just structural rot. First, 178 00:11:30,440 --> 00:11:35,080 Speaker 4: the Vietnam hangover that never healed. We just never healed 179 00:11:35,080 --> 00:11:39,320 Speaker 4: from Vietnam. Hey girl, how you doing? Good to see you. 180 00:11:39,720 --> 00:11:43,360 Speaker 4: I got a visitor back in the studio, how are you? I? 181 00:11:44,920 --> 00:11:49,640 Speaker 4: The Vietnam hangover never ended, so we never actually processed Vietnam. 182 00:11:50,120 --> 00:11:52,400 Speaker 4: There was no reckoning, no honest accounting of what went 183 00:11:52,440 --> 00:11:55,320 Speaker 4: wrong and why. Instead, the political in the media class 184 00:11:56,080 --> 00:12:01,120 Speaker 4: developed a reflexive another Vietnam template, and that template gets 185 00:12:01,240 --> 00:12:04,920 Speaker 4: applied to every single military engagement before the first shot 186 00:12:04,960 --> 00:12:08,600 Speaker 4: is fired. That becomes some sort of cognitive shortcut that 187 00:12:08,640 --> 00:12:15,199 Speaker 4: substitutes historical trauma. Actually, I believe historical trauma like PTSD 188 00:12:15,320 --> 00:12:21,120 Speaker 4: of some sort. It is a cognitive shortcut that substitutes 189 00:12:21,320 --> 00:12:24,480 Speaker 4: historical trauma for strategic analysis. 190 00:12:25,400 --> 00:12:28,480 Speaker 3: Iran is not Vietnam, Iran is not Iraq. 191 00:12:29,200 --> 00:12:33,960 Speaker 4: The situations share some superficial features but nothing else. But 192 00:12:34,000 --> 00:12:38,720 Speaker 4: the template gets deployed anyway. Why because it's emotionally available, 193 00:12:39,080 --> 00:12:45,479 Speaker 4: it's politically useful. And I think we have generations, generations 194 00:12:45,520 --> 00:12:49,720 Speaker 4: over my shoulder that have no clear perspective, that have 195 00:12:49,880 --> 00:12:53,880 Speaker 4: such a freaking easy lifestyle that they have no idea 196 00:12:54,160 --> 00:12:59,120 Speaker 4: what the concept of sacrifice even means. Sacrifice to them 197 00:12:59,280 --> 00:13:01,720 Speaker 4: is oh, my good up at the Sam's Club, and 198 00:13:01,800 --> 00:13:04,640 Speaker 4: guess it was two seventy nine the other day Announ's 199 00:13:04,679 --> 00:13:08,760 Speaker 4: three twenty nine. Oh the inhumanity. Now, don't get me wrong, 200 00:13:08,840 --> 00:13:13,240 Speaker 4: I completely understand, and quite frankly, this is another whole 201 00:13:13,480 --> 00:13:16,080 Speaker 4: I could do the whole week topic on this. We 202 00:13:16,160 --> 00:13:19,600 Speaker 4: have too many people leaving paycheck to paycheck, and not 203 00:13:19,640 --> 00:13:24,079 Speaker 4: necessarily through their own fault, but because we have allowed 204 00:13:24,240 --> 00:13:26,960 Speaker 4: so many things to go wrong. We have spent so 205 00:13:27,240 --> 00:13:30,360 Speaker 4: much money in this country, we rely on the government 206 00:13:30,440 --> 00:13:36,800 Speaker 4: for everything that many people are trapped in a financial web. 207 00:13:37,720 --> 00:13:43,440 Speaker 4: So that Vietnam hangover is the number one strategic structural 208 00:13:43,520 --> 00:13:48,160 Speaker 4: fault line that keeps us from dealing clear eyed with 209 00:13:48,200 --> 00:13:51,080 Speaker 4: what we're trying to accomplish in Iran. Number two the 210 00:13:51,120 --> 00:13:53,680 Speaker 4: Iraq Afghanistan twenty year hangover. 211 00:13:53,880 --> 00:13:54,080 Speaker 3: Four. 212 00:13:54,679 --> 00:13:58,080 Speaker 4: This is where the Forever War mean comes about. And 213 00:13:58,160 --> 00:14:01,040 Speaker 4: here's why I think is the profound that I want 214 00:14:01,080 --> 00:14:05,720 Speaker 4: you to understand. The people that are screening Forever War 215 00:14:06,679 --> 00:14:11,280 Speaker 4: after one week are the same ideological cohort that spent 216 00:14:11,360 --> 00:14:16,000 Speaker 4: twenty years in Afghanistan without ever defining what winning looked like. 217 00:14:17,040 --> 00:14:20,000 Speaker 4: Now just let me add of parenthetical this is actually 218 00:14:20,040 --> 00:14:21,680 Speaker 4: a footnote. Let me add a footnote right here to 219 00:14:21,760 --> 00:14:25,040 Speaker 4: my notes. I have said that one of the mistakes 220 00:14:25,040 --> 00:14:31,680 Speaker 4: that we made in Afghanistan was sending troops in. It 221 00:14:31,760 --> 00:14:35,160 Speaker 4: seems to me that if our objective here was our objective, 222 00:14:35,240 --> 00:14:38,160 Speaker 4: at least here was the original objective that I remember 223 00:14:38,240 --> 00:14:41,600 Speaker 4: hearing in the situation room or in the OP center 224 00:14:41,680 --> 00:14:46,400 Speaker 4: at the Pentagon was that our objective in Afghanistan and 225 00:14:46,480 --> 00:14:48,880 Speaker 4: quite frankly in Pakistan and any other place we could 226 00:14:48,880 --> 00:14:54,880 Speaker 4: go was to find Osama bin Laden and bring him 227 00:14:54,920 --> 00:14:57,960 Speaker 4: to justice, either by a bullet through the you know, 228 00:14:59,120 --> 00:15:03,400 Speaker 4: through the skull, or take him back to Gipmo or something. 229 00:15:03,760 --> 00:15:08,120 Speaker 4: But that was the objective. If that's your object objective, 230 00:15:08,480 --> 00:15:14,360 Speaker 4: then all you need are CIA covert operatives and you know, 231 00:15:14,600 --> 00:15:19,600 Speaker 4: maybe some mercenaries and you go hunting down. You don't 232 00:15:19,640 --> 00:15:23,000 Speaker 4: try to completely take over a country. But that's where 233 00:15:23,000 --> 00:15:27,160 Speaker 4: we kind of got lost our way. But again, the 234 00:15:27,200 --> 00:15:31,920 Speaker 4: people in Afghanistan that are now screening Forever War after 235 00:15:31,960 --> 00:15:34,880 Speaker 4: that one week that we've been in were indeed the 236 00:15:34,920 --> 00:15:38,680 Speaker 4: same ideological cohort that spent twenty years in Afghanistan and 237 00:15:38,840 --> 00:15:42,560 Speaker 4: never defined what winning looked like. The Forever War was 238 00:15:42,600 --> 00:15:46,600 Speaker 4: not caused by a clarity of objective. It was caused 239 00:15:46,600 --> 00:15:50,720 Speaker 4: by the absence of an objective. Oh. I heard the 240 00:15:50,800 --> 00:15:57,040 Speaker 4: objective in those meetings. I heard the objectives succinctly stated 241 00:15:57,120 --> 00:16:00,000 Speaker 4: in the White House situation room. I heard them stay 242 00:16:00,240 --> 00:16:03,240 Speaker 4: in the OP Center in the Pentagon. I heard them 243 00:16:03,320 --> 00:16:09,320 Speaker 4: stated wherever I traveled. Yet what happened. We decided, in 244 00:16:10,400 --> 00:16:14,800 Speaker 4: cahoots with contractors and everybody else to expand expand, expand expand. 245 00:16:14,880 --> 00:16:17,920 Speaker 3: Like most government programs do, a clear. 246 00:16:17,840 --> 00:16:24,600 Speaker 4: Terminal condition, full surrender, regime change, unconditional capitulation is actually. 247 00:16:24,200 --> 00:16:26,000 Speaker 3: Antidote to a forever war. 248 00:16:26,760 --> 00:16:29,440 Speaker 4: If that's your terminal condition, we're going to get a 249 00:16:29,480 --> 00:16:34,480 Speaker 4: full surrender, We're going to accomplish regime change. We're going 250 00:16:34,520 --> 00:16:38,760 Speaker 4: to have an unconditional capitulation. That's the antidote to a 251 00:16:38,800 --> 00:16:41,240 Speaker 4: forever war. Because you have an in state, and you 252 00:16:41,280 --> 00:16:46,320 Speaker 4: have an in state half measures, face saving exits are 253 00:16:46,440 --> 00:16:50,040 Speaker 4: what create forever wars. If you stop short of finishing 254 00:16:50,040 --> 00:16:52,640 Speaker 4: the job in Iran, you will be back in five years, 255 00:16:52,640 --> 00:16:54,040 Speaker 4: ten years, five weeks, ten weeks. 256 00:16:54,080 --> 00:16:55,640 Speaker 3: I don't know. It's going to cost us a whole 257 00:16:55,680 --> 00:16:57,160 Speaker 3: lot more so. 258 00:16:57,320 --> 00:17:00,320 Speaker 4: You got the Vietnam hangover that never healed, you got 259 00:17:00,320 --> 00:17:03,600 Speaker 4: the Iraq Afghanistan twenty year hangover, the forever war mean 260 00:17:03,800 --> 00:17:08,680 Speaker 4: that comes about. Then you've got a third and this 261 00:17:08,720 --> 00:17:11,720 Speaker 4: one is I think of all probably one of the 262 00:17:11,800 --> 00:17:17,080 Speaker 4: most uncomfortable. The absence of a concept of shared sacrifice 263 00:17:17,440 --> 00:17:21,960 Speaker 4: perhaps the most structurally important factor. And since the end 264 00:17:22,040 --> 00:17:25,000 Speaker 4: of the Vietnam era drafts in nineteen seventy three, we 265 00:17:25,040 --> 00:17:27,240 Speaker 4: have fought all of our wars with an all volunteer 266 00:17:27,320 --> 00:17:33,040 Speaker 4: military that represents roughly what what zero point four percent 267 00:17:33,080 --> 00:17:36,200 Speaker 4: of the population. The other ninety nine point six percent 268 00:17:36,240 --> 00:17:39,000 Speaker 4: of Americans experienced war as a what's the news event? 269 00:17:39,320 --> 00:17:43,159 Speaker 4: Puts your grass price fluctuation? It's an abstract debate on 270 00:17:43,200 --> 00:17:46,239 Speaker 4: social media. There are no war bondsers, no rationing, no 271 00:17:46,320 --> 00:17:49,000 Speaker 4: family sitting around the radio waiting for casualty lists. The 272 00:17:49,040 --> 00:17:52,440 Speaker 4: result is that the American public has near zero skin 273 00:17:52,520 --> 00:17:57,119 Speaker 4: in the game, which means near zero tolerance for any discomfort, 274 00:17:57,840 --> 00:18:02,560 Speaker 4: however minor, that can be attributed to that conflict. When 275 00:18:02,600 --> 00:18:06,080 Speaker 4: everyone sacrifices, everyone has a stake in the victory. When 276 00:18:06,119 --> 00:18:09,320 Speaker 4: only a tiny professional class sacrifices, the rest of the 277 00:18:09,359 --> 00:18:12,920 Speaker 4: population has zero investment in the outcomes, only in their 278 00:18:12,960 --> 00:18:16,919 Speaker 4: own personal comfort. So I would say that the number 279 00:18:17,000 --> 00:18:21,400 Speaker 4: three of my structural pillars, the absence of shared sacrifice 280 00:18:21,920 --> 00:18:22,840 Speaker 4: leads to a break. 281 00:18:25,160 --> 00:18:29,760 Speaker 1: Not trying to interrupt or interrupt or you know, talk 282 00:18:29,800 --> 00:18:33,600 Speaker 1: over anybody, but talk would anybody who want to follow 283 00:18:33,640 --> 00:18:35,480 Speaker 1: me up back and take myself because I'm the only 284 00:18:35,480 --> 00:18:38,960 Speaker 1: one who asked for no particular reason whatsoever, but I 285 00:18:39,000 --> 00:18:39,720 Speaker 1: did ask. 286 00:18:39,640 --> 00:18:40,320 Speaker 3: Thank you so much? 287 00:18:42,359 --> 00:18:44,000 Speaker 2: Oh is there anybody gonna follow them? 288 00:18:44,040 --> 00:18:45,040 Speaker 3: But what's going on here? 289 00:18:45,240 --> 00:18:49,040 Speaker 4: I was busy trying, fumbling, trying to get my earbuddy in, 290 00:18:49,080 --> 00:18:50,560 Speaker 4: and I didn't hear about half of it, so I 291 00:18:51,040 --> 00:18:54,320 Speaker 4: wasn't sure what you do want anything? Oh okay, all right? Well, 292 00:18:54,400 --> 00:18:57,120 Speaker 4: and not that I would have cared anyway. So I mean, 293 00:18:57,480 --> 00:18:59,880 Speaker 4: we just use them so we can mock the audience. 294 00:19:00,119 --> 00:19:03,680 Speaker 4: Only reason we do that. True, So I'm going through 295 00:19:03,680 --> 00:19:07,879 Speaker 4: this analysis I guess you would call it that I 296 00:19:07,920 --> 00:19:13,880 Speaker 4: put together about why is it this suddenly we are 297 00:19:14,000 --> 00:19:17,760 Speaker 4: so wrapped around the axle about oh my gosh, when's 298 00:19:17,800 --> 00:19:20,159 Speaker 4: this war going to be over? When of these hostilities 299 00:19:20,280 --> 00:19:23,280 Speaker 4: is going to cease? And it's all based on, oh my, 300 00:19:23,400 --> 00:19:25,560 Speaker 4: just what's the price of a barrel of oil? Why 301 00:19:25,560 --> 00:19:28,280 Speaker 4: aren't we paying it to pump for a gallon of gasoline? 302 00:19:28,840 --> 00:19:36,000 Speaker 4: And I came up with seven structural problems that the 303 00:19:36,080 --> 00:19:40,439 Speaker 4: seven pillars is the way I originally described them, of 304 00:19:40,440 --> 00:19:45,720 Speaker 4: our strategic witness, our strategic weaknesses. It's the Vietnam hangover. 305 00:19:46,119 --> 00:19:49,119 Speaker 4: We never really truly healed from that. We really do 306 00:19:49,359 --> 00:19:53,360 Speaker 4: need therapy about it. The hangover from the Iraq Afghanistan war, 307 00:19:53,640 --> 00:19:56,479 Speaker 4: and that's where we got the forever war mean. And 308 00:19:56,520 --> 00:20:01,120 Speaker 4: then the absence of shared sacrifice. And the fourth one 309 00:20:01,160 --> 00:20:06,959 Speaker 4: would be this the compression of strategic time by the 310 00:20:07,000 --> 00:20:09,560 Speaker 4: twenty four hour, seven day a week news cycle and 311 00:20:09,640 --> 00:20:14,080 Speaker 4: by social media. A week in nineteen forty four in 312 00:20:14,119 --> 00:20:17,399 Speaker 4: the midst of World War II was a week. A 313 00:20:17,480 --> 00:20:22,359 Speaker 4: week in twenty twenty five is by my calculation, about 314 00:20:22,640 --> 00:20:28,240 Speaker 4: forty seven thousand news cycles, probably on average, two hundred 315 00:20:28,240 --> 00:20:33,000 Speaker 4: hot takes on some issue, a bunch of congressional press conferences, 316 00:20:33,920 --> 00:20:38,400 Speaker 4: a handful of what passes as debate on cable news channels, 317 00:20:39,240 --> 00:20:47,080 Speaker 4: and approximately one trillion social media impressions. So the perceived 318 00:20:47,200 --> 00:20:51,439 Speaker 4: duration of a conflict has been catastrophically compressed by. 319 00:20:51,320 --> 00:20:54,240 Speaker 3: The information environment. What feels like. 320 00:20:54,280 --> 00:20:57,879 Speaker 4: Dragging on to a Twitter user in twenty twenty six 321 00:20:58,760 --> 00:21:03,080 Speaker 4: would have been considered the risk opening act in any 322 00:21:03,160 --> 00:21:08,600 Speaker 4: prior American conflict. The media ecosystem also profits from that 323 00:21:08,680 --> 00:21:16,760 Speaker 4: panic call patient. Strategic patient won't drive a click but 324 00:21:17,040 --> 00:21:22,879 Speaker 4: one hundred dollars oil escalation World War III, forever war. 325 00:21:23,520 --> 00:21:27,800 Speaker 4: That all drives engagement. So there's an incentive structure now 326 00:21:27,840 --> 00:21:32,360 Speaker 4: in the modern media political complex that is fundamentally misaligned 327 00:21:32,560 --> 00:21:38,639 Speaker 4: with the requirements of strategic patients. So number four in 328 00:21:38,720 --> 00:21:42,119 Speaker 4: my pillar of structural infirmities in this country is the 329 00:21:42,119 --> 00:21:45,800 Speaker 4: compression of strategic time by the social media platforms and 330 00:21:45,840 --> 00:21:48,320 Speaker 4: the twenty four hour news cycle. Then there's a fifth one, 331 00:21:49,400 --> 00:21:52,480 Speaker 4: and that's the political classes. The ruling class, the ruling 332 00:21:52,480 --> 00:21:55,560 Speaker 4: elites two year attention span. Members of the House of 333 00:21:55,600 --> 00:21:58,800 Speaker 4: Representatives face election, you know every two years, right, Senators 334 00:21:58,800 --> 00:22:02,160 Speaker 4: every six sidence, they at least have a four year horizon, 335 00:22:02,480 --> 00:22:09,640 Speaker 4: But strategic military objection objectives often operate on a decade 336 00:22:09,920 --> 00:22:15,920 Speaker 4: long timeline. That's a structural mismatch, and that mismatch means 337 00:22:15,920 --> 00:22:20,000 Speaker 4: that the political class is always feeling the pressure to 338 00:22:20,080 --> 00:22:23,880 Speaker 4: declare victory right now and come home before we ever 339 00:22:23,960 --> 00:22:31,320 Speaker 4: achieve the strategic objective, the military objective, because voters who 340 00:22:31,359 --> 00:22:36,520 Speaker 4: are experiencing short term economic pain will punish the ruling 341 00:22:36,600 --> 00:22:41,800 Speaker 4: elite before the long term strategic benefit ever materializes. That 342 00:22:41,840 --> 00:22:45,920 Speaker 4: incentive is always to exit early, tan the problem off 343 00:22:45,960 --> 00:22:49,119 Speaker 4: to a predecessor or in our political vernacular is simply 344 00:22:49,160 --> 00:22:50,960 Speaker 4: kick the road, to kick the can down the road. 345 00:22:51,680 --> 00:22:54,640 Speaker 3: So last number five, the political class. 346 00:22:54,320 --> 00:22:56,919 Speaker 4: Has a two year attention span, and I can tell 347 00:22:56,960 --> 00:22:59,919 Speaker 4: you from personal experience it's probably not even a two 348 00:23:00,119 --> 00:23:03,640 Speaker 4: year attention span. It is a day by day attention 349 00:23:03,760 --> 00:23:06,840 Speaker 4: span because they're always trying to get onto the cable news, 350 00:23:06,880 --> 00:23:09,080 Speaker 4: which goes back to that twenty four hour, seven day 351 00:23:09,080 --> 00:23:11,680 Speaker 4: a week news cycle and all of those different hits, 352 00:23:12,560 --> 00:23:17,720 Speaker 4: and they're daily fundraising. I mean you could, if any 353 00:23:17,800 --> 00:23:20,720 Speaker 4: congressman would tell you the truth, they've got somebody on 354 00:23:20,760 --> 00:23:26,000 Speaker 4: their campaign staff that has outlined, here's on average how 355 00:23:26,080 --> 00:23:31,399 Speaker 4: much money you need to raise every single day. And 356 00:23:31,480 --> 00:23:35,200 Speaker 4: so therefore we're going to carve out a period of time, 357 00:23:35,680 --> 00:23:39,439 Speaker 4: whether that's one hour or two hours where every single day. However, 358 00:23:39,480 --> 00:23:45,720 Speaker 4: you might measure those those hours by either making phone 359 00:23:45,720 --> 00:23:50,879 Speaker 4: calls to donors, signing thank you notes, but doing something 360 00:23:51,480 --> 00:23:56,959 Speaker 4: for a certain period of time every single day in 361 00:23:57,080 --> 00:24:02,359 Speaker 4: order to achieve re election. That's the two year attention span, 362 00:24:03,160 --> 00:24:06,840 Speaker 4: and it's actually a daily attention span. And then the 363 00:24:06,920 --> 00:24:09,240 Speaker 4: sixth and sixth one is something I've talked about for 364 00:24:09,280 --> 00:24:12,720 Speaker 4: a long time, and that's the lack of legitimacy or 365 00:24:12,760 --> 00:24:19,240 Speaker 4: the collapse of institutional trust. And here here's there's no 366 00:24:19,280 --> 00:24:22,520 Speaker 4: way around it. This is just a cynical layer. A 367 00:24:22,560 --> 00:24:26,879 Speaker 4: significant portion of the general public resistance to seeing this 368 00:24:27,080 --> 00:24:32,639 Speaker 4: through is not strategic analysis. It's a rational response to 369 00:24:32,720 --> 00:24:37,520 Speaker 4: having been lied to repeatedly. Really, you haven't been lied 370 00:24:37,520 --> 00:24:41,240 Speaker 4: to by politicians weapons of mass destruction. The troops will 371 00:24:41,280 --> 00:24:44,440 Speaker 4: be home by Christmas. We're turning the corner in Afghanistan. 372 00:24:45,640 --> 00:24:49,720 Speaker 4: The credibility of our national security establishment has been so 373 00:24:49,880 --> 00:24:53,560 Speaker 4: thoroughly depleted by decades of mendacity and incompetence that even 374 00:24:53,600 --> 00:24:57,760 Speaker 4: a legitimate, very well executed operation that has a clear 375 00:24:57,800 --> 00:25:04,400 Speaker 4: strategic rationale gets filled through this default assumption of government 376 00:25:04,680 --> 00:25:08,480 Speaker 4: bad faith. Now that may be cynical, but I think 377 00:25:08,480 --> 00:25:12,000 Speaker 4: it's factual. You can't tell me that you don't have 378 00:25:12,800 --> 00:25:20,119 Speaker 4: a you don't have a default assumption of government bad faith. 379 00:25:21,200 --> 00:25:24,320 Speaker 3: I can tell you, and I'm probably the worst example 380 00:25:24,359 --> 00:25:25,679 Speaker 3: of all. I have. 381 00:25:27,200 --> 00:25:31,399 Speaker 4: An inherent I have a disease of government inherent government 382 00:25:31,440 --> 00:25:35,200 Speaker 4: assumption of government bad faith because I've seen it operate. 383 00:25:36,280 --> 00:25:38,760 Speaker 4: You can't ask someone to trust the state of objectives 384 00:25:38,800 --> 00:25:42,280 Speaker 4: of an operation when the institution that's making those statements 385 00:25:42,600 --> 00:25:46,520 Speaker 4: has a forty year track record of always over promising 386 00:25:46,560 --> 00:25:47,960 Speaker 4: and undelivering or just. 387 00:25:47,960 --> 00:25:49,640 Speaker 3: Lie outright lying to you. 388 00:25:51,280 --> 00:25:54,840 Speaker 4: So that sixth one, the whole idea of the collapse 389 00:25:54,880 --> 00:25:59,200 Speaker 4: of institutional trust, may seem to you like an abstract 390 00:25:59,640 --> 00:26:02,280 Speaker 4: pillar of structural. 391 00:26:04,000 --> 00:26:06,960 Speaker 3: A fallibility, but I think it's a very real one. 392 00:26:08,200 --> 00:26:12,680 Speaker 4: And then you have the seventh one, the managerial slash 393 00:26:12,760 --> 00:26:17,880 Speaker 4: professional classes deep conflict aversion. Because the people who run 394 00:26:18,119 --> 00:26:23,800 Speaker 4: our major institutions, the media, the financial people on Wall Street, 395 00:26:23,840 --> 00:26:29,600 Speaker 4: the tech industry, the academics, large multinational corporations, they are 396 00:26:29,720 --> 00:26:36,679 Speaker 4: disproportionately conflict diverse, and they're globalist in orientation, and they 397 00:26:36,760 --> 00:26:39,640 Speaker 4: are you can ask anybody that serves on the board 398 00:26:39,640 --> 00:26:44,040 Speaker 4: of a public traded company. They are acutely sensitive to 399 00:26:44,359 --> 00:26:50,240 Speaker 4: anything that disrupts the smooth functioning of supply chains or markets, 400 00:26:50,520 --> 00:26:54,679 Speaker 4: international relationships. So one hundred dollars a barrel oil doesn't 401 00:26:54,720 --> 00:26:59,520 Speaker 4: just hurt consumers, It disrupts the portfolio models, the earnings 402 00:26:59,560 --> 00:27:04,280 Speaker 4: project that just in time, logistic networks, and the pressure 403 00:27:04,320 --> 00:27:07,560 Speaker 4: from that class, the media, the financial sector that texts, 404 00:27:07,600 --> 00:27:11,800 Speaker 4: the academicians, the large corporations, the pressure from all of 405 00:27:11,840 --> 00:27:17,880 Speaker 4: those on the political class to de escalate is an 406 00:27:18,119 --> 00:27:21,760 Speaker 4: enormous pressure, and it's largely invisible to the general public. 407 00:27:21,800 --> 00:27:23,200 Speaker 3: You never see it, You never think about that. 408 00:27:24,760 --> 00:27:30,520 Speaker 4: But those people in those circles, the people that are 409 00:27:30,560 --> 00:27:34,760 Speaker 4: on the boards of all these giant corporations, the presidents 410 00:27:34,880 --> 00:27:40,800 Speaker 4: and the think tanks within universities, all of those academicians, 411 00:27:41,800 --> 00:27:45,879 Speaker 4: and then the tech giants, the muckety MUCKs on Wall Street, 412 00:27:46,720 --> 00:27:51,240 Speaker 4: all of the people in the media. They have direct access, 413 00:27:52,520 --> 00:27:59,439 Speaker 4: direct access to people in Congress, people in the executive branch, 414 00:28:00,119 --> 00:28:03,480 Speaker 4: and they put pressure on them every single day. They 415 00:28:03,480 --> 00:28:08,680 Speaker 4: operate through boardroom conversations, donor calls, editorial meetings, not through 416 00:28:08,720 --> 00:28:12,040 Speaker 4: formal lobby. Oh they do that, but I'm telling you 417 00:28:12,119 --> 00:28:16,359 Speaker 4: they are as powerful as any organized interest group RANY. 418 00:28:16,960 --> 00:28:19,960 Speaker 4: They keep complaining about four dollars gas because that's all 419 00:28:20,000 --> 00:28:21,280 Speaker 4: they got complained about. 420 00:28:21,280 --> 00:28:23,640 Speaker 1: Trump's just doing everything right. 421 00:28:27,760 --> 00:28:30,320 Speaker 4: I don't get the whole complaining about four dollars a 422 00:28:30,359 --> 00:28:35,760 Speaker 4: gallon gas when in California that's pretty much the low end. 423 00:28:36,440 --> 00:28:39,240 Speaker 4: You ought to be happy about it if you're in California. Now, 424 00:28:39,280 --> 00:28:41,479 Speaker 4: I forget what I paid at Sam's. I haven't been 425 00:28:41,520 --> 00:28:45,280 Speaker 4: to get to the gas station in several days. But 426 00:28:45,800 --> 00:28:48,240 Speaker 4: I want to say it was three seventy nine or something, 427 00:28:49,000 --> 00:28:51,040 Speaker 4: and I thought, yeah, I mean, you know, do I 428 00:28:51,160 --> 00:28:51,480 Speaker 4: like it? 429 00:28:52,040 --> 00:28:54,840 Speaker 3: No? Would I prefer to be like two fifty a gallon? 430 00:28:55,320 --> 00:28:59,440 Speaker 4: Yes? Do I blame what's going on in Iran for 431 00:28:59,800 --> 00:29:01,880 Speaker 4: all all of the increase in the gas price? 432 00:29:02,320 --> 00:29:06,040 Speaker 3: No, of course not. So I want you to think. 433 00:29:06,120 --> 00:29:07,880 Speaker 4: I want you to keep in mind those those seven 434 00:29:07,920 --> 00:29:11,440 Speaker 4: pillars that I outline of what I believe are our 435 00:29:11,520 --> 00:29:17,240 Speaker 4: strategic weaknesses. There's the hangover from Vietnam. There's the forever war, 436 00:29:17,360 --> 00:29:20,560 Speaker 4: mean that came out of the Iraq Afghanistan war. We 437 00:29:20,600 --> 00:29:24,000 Speaker 4: don't have any shared sacrifice anymore. And you've got that. 438 00:29:24,200 --> 00:29:25,720 Speaker 4: And I think this is truly one of the most 439 00:29:25,720 --> 00:29:28,959 Speaker 4: important ones, the compression of strategic time because of the 440 00:29:29,040 --> 00:29:32,600 Speaker 4: of the of social media and the news cycle. When 441 00:29:32,600 --> 00:29:35,760 Speaker 4: you think about, as I said, a week in nineteen 442 00:29:35,800 --> 00:29:38,400 Speaker 4: forty four was a week you had seven days, and 443 00:29:38,520 --> 00:29:41,440 Speaker 4: those seven days probably, you know, to some people, maybe 444 00:29:41,520 --> 00:29:43,920 Speaker 4: dragged out. But at week in twenty twenty five is 445 00:29:43,920 --> 00:29:46,680 Speaker 4: forty seven thousand news cycles, you know, two hundred more 446 00:29:46,720 --> 00:29:49,040 Speaker 4: hot takes on whatever the subject is. You know, how 447 00:29:49,080 --> 00:29:52,720 Speaker 4: many congressional press well, probably about five hundred and thirty 448 00:29:52,720 --> 00:29:55,760 Speaker 4: five press conferences, because all members of the House at 449 00:29:55,800 --> 00:29:58,200 Speaker 4: some point will want to have a press conference. They 450 00:29:58,280 --> 00:30:01,440 Speaker 4: might group up together like the Squad or somebody. And 451 00:30:01,480 --> 00:30:03,880 Speaker 4: then you have all the news panel debates that you 452 00:30:03,960 --> 00:30:07,240 Speaker 4: see on the cable TV, and then a trillion, a 453 00:30:07,600 --> 00:30:14,360 Speaker 4: trillion social media impressions. You've got the political classes to 454 00:30:14,440 --> 00:30:18,200 Speaker 4: your attention span, the collapse of institutional trust, and of 455 00:30:18,200 --> 00:30:24,040 Speaker 4: course we always forget about I think the professional managerial 456 00:30:24,120 --> 00:30:28,720 Speaker 4: class that has direct access to DC, that will pick 457 00:30:28,800 --> 00:30:30,600 Speaker 4: up the phone and you know, they may not call 458 00:30:30,720 --> 00:30:33,680 Speaker 4: Trump and talk to Trump directly, but they can call 459 00:30:33,720 --> 00:30:37,560 Speaker 4: Susie Wilds, or they can call Stephen Miller, or they 460 00:30:37,600 --> 00:30:41,040 Speaker 4: can call Scott Bascent, they can call one they can 461 00:30:41,080 --> 00:30:44,880 Speaker 4: call any of their chiefs of staff and talk to them, and. 462 00:30:45,320 --> 00:30:46,600 Speaker 3: That has an impact. 463 00:30:47,200 --> 00:30:50,080 Speaker 4: So all of those things go into everything that ultimately 464 00:30:50,200 --> 00:30:54,480 Speaker 4: ends up in your brain, either through radio, television, newspapers, websites, 465 00:30:54,520 --> 00:30:58,160 Speaker 4: think tanks, whatever you may, wherever you consume your information. 466 00:31:00,120 --> 00:31:07,400 Speaker 4: There is a strategic cost to stopping short if we flinch. Now, 467 00:31:08,400 --> 00:31:11,560 Speaker 4: if Trump's full surrendered demand is walk back in exchange 468 00:31:11,600 --> 00:31:16,360 Speaker 4: for some sort of face saving Iranian concessions that amount 469 00:31:16,400 --> 00:31:20,560 Speaker 4: to a renegotiated version of the status quo. Ante Here's 470 00:31:20,600 --> 00:31:27,400 Speaker 4: what I think happens Iran. It'll reconstitute, not immediately and 471 00:31:27,480 --> 00:31:31,440 Speaker 4: maybe not visibly, but they will reconstitute. Now we've blown 472 00:31:31,480 --> 00:31:34,400 Speaker 4: do you know what out of them, So the rebuilding 473 00:31:34,440 --> 00:31:38,800 Speaker 4: all that infrastructure will take time, but they will rebuild, 474 00:31:39,480 --> 00:31:43,400 Speaker 4: and they'll rebuild their nuclear program. They'll rebuild the proxy 475 00:31:43,440 --> 00:31:48,000 Speaker 4: network think has below, the who thies, the militias, and 476 00:31:48,080 --> 00:31:53,479 Speaker 4: they'll do it under whatever inspection regime that anybody puts together, 477 00:31:54,080 --> 00:31:57,840 Speaker 4: any sort of diplomatic framework that gets constructed, all of 478 00:31:57,880 --> 00:32:00,840 Speaker 4: which will serve as a fig leaf for our retreat. 479 00:32:01,000 --> 00:32:04,200 Speaker 4: They've done it before, they'll do it again. If we 480 00:32:04,360 --> 00:32:10,840 Speaker 4: keep saying, if if every president since Jimmy Carter, since 481 00:32:10,880 --> 00:32:17,240 Speaker 4: the revolution in nineteen seventy nine, every single president Carter, 482 00:32:17,720 --> 00:32:23,480 Speaker 4: both Bushes, Clinton, Obama, Biden, Trump have all said, even 483 00:32:23,480 --> 00:32:27,440 Speaker 4: Trump before this president all said that China cannot have 484 00:32:27,560 --> 00:32:33,000 Speaker 4: a nuclear weapon. Nobody did anything about that. Some and 485 00:32:33,520 --> 00:32:34,800 Speaker 4: we all agreed, oh yeah, it's true. 486 00:32:34,800 --> 00:32:35,120 Speaker 3: It's true. 487 00:32:35,160 --> 00:32:37,160 Speaker 4: It's true because all we thought about it was in 488 00:32:37,200 --> 00:32:40,160 Speaker 4: the abstract. We never really thought about what does that mean, 489 00:32:41,480 --> 00:32:45,680 Speaker 4: and we never really took it seriously. And now that 490 00:32:45,720 --> 00:32:49,360 Speaker 4: someone's taking it seriously, everybody's, oh my gosh, what's going 491 00:32:49,440 --> 00:32:51,160 Speaker 4: to happen, what's going to happen. I can't tell you 492 00:32:51,200 --> 00:32:55,680 Speaker 4: what's happening. If we do a retreat. You know who's 493 00:32:55,680 --> 00:32:59,400 Speaker 4: taking notes right now, Vladimir Putin is Eugenping