1 00:00:00,160 --> 00:00:05,040 Speaker 1: In other places a lot here we're just wondering if 2 00:00:05,080 --> 00:00:07,840 Speaker 1: they're going to sign kylesh War. We are at Oakley Greens. 3 00:00:07,880 --> 00:00:11,440 Speaker 1: It's thirteen away from four o'clock ESPN fifteen thirty. We'll 4 00:00:11,480 --> 00:00:14,720 Speaker 1: spend some time on the Bearcats, as you see, gets 5 00:00:14,760 --> 00:00:17,440 Speaker 1: set to go to Fort Worth on Saturday to try 6 00:00:17,480 --> 00:00:21,840 Speaker 1: to avoid a fourth consecutive loss. And many of us 7 00:00:21,840 --> 00:00:24,119 Speaker 1: are still salty about the game, about the way the 8 00:00:24,160 --> 00:00:27,560 Speaker 1: game on Saturday night play it out, and many looking 9 00:00:27,560 --> 00:00:30,800 Speaker 1: ahead to this weekend rivalry weekend in college football Ohio 10 00:00:30,800 --> 00:00:34,280 Speaker 1: State at Michigan. We have for years referenced the work 11 00:00:34,360 --> 00:00:38,000 Speaker 1: of Bill Connolly, who is a college football writer for ESPN. 12 00:00:38,280 --> 00:00:43,600 Speaker 1: We always use his SMP plus metrics sometimes in referencing 13 00:00:43,800 --> 00:00:46,720 Speaker 1: picks and betting and just you know, predictive metrics that 14 00:00:46,800 --> 00:00:50,440 Speaker 1: sort of stuff. And I have followed Bill's work for years. 15 00:00:50,920 --> 00:00:53,360 Speaker 1: He also has written a book, and it's a really, 16 00:00:53,400 --> 00:00:55,480 Speaker 1: really good read. It's one of the best sports books 17 00:00:55,520 --> 00:00:59,040 Speaker 1: I've read. Forward Progress, The Definitive Guide to the Future 18 00:00:59,040 --> 00:01:02,560 Speaker 1: of College Football. And if you're into college football, if 19 00:01:02,600 --> 00:01:05,840 Speaker 1: certainly you understand that the sport is night and day 20 00:01:05,880 --> 00:01:08,280 Speaker 1: from what it was. Heck, just six seven years ago, 21 00:01:08,959 --> 00:01:11,919 Speaker 1: and Bill does a really good deep dive into things 22 00:01:11,920 --> 00:01:15,560 Speaker 1: that may happen, things that will happen, and in some cases, 23 00:01:15,600 --> 00:01:18,760 Speaker 1: things that should happen moving forward, as they may shape 24 00:01:19,480 --> 00:01:22,959 Speaker 1: college football into the next decade. Bill is kind enough 25 00:01:23,000 --> 00:01:24,640 Speaker 1: to give us a few minutes this afternoon. It's good 26 00:01:24,640 --> 00:01:27,200 Speaker 1: to have you, Bill. How are you very good? How 27 00:01:27,240 --> 00:01:30,400 Speaker 1: about you? I'm well. You took on a little bit 28 00:01:30,400 --> 00:01:32,440 Speaker 1: of a task here that I think is interesting writing 29 00:01:32,480 --> 00:01:34,720 Speaker 1: about the future of this sport. Let me ask you 30 00:01:34,760 --> 00:01:38,120 Speaker 1: this because I hear all the time, whether it's nil, 31 00:01:38,280 --> 00:01:41,640 Speaker 1: the portal, the expansion of the playoff conference, real alignment, 32 00:01:42,560 --> 00:01:46,360 Speaker 1: private equity buying into college football conferences. I hear people say, well, 33 00:01:46,400 --> 00:01:49,600 Speaker 1: college football has been ruined. And my take as always, well, 34 00:01:49,640 --> 00:01:53,040 Speaker 1: Saturdays feel the same. Saturdays are awesome Saturday and ann 35 00:01:53,080 --> 00:01:55,880 Speaker 1: Arbor is going to be incredible. Saturdays at Nippert's Stadium 36 00:01:56,080 --> 00:01:58,200 Speaker 1: are awesome, maybe not as awesome as they were four 37 00:01:58,320 --> 00:02:01,440 Speaker 1: years ago. The stadiums are fold the TV ratings are great. 38 00:02:01,480 --> 00:02:03,600 Speaker 1: What do you think what comes to mind when someone 39 00:02:03,640 --> 00:02:05,160 Speaker 1: says college football has been ruined? 40 00:02:06,240 --> 00:02:06,480 Speaker 2: Yeah? 41 00:02:06,520 --> 00:02:08,440 Speaker 3: That that was a joke I had In one of 42 00:02:08,440 --> 00:02:11,760 Speaker 3: the chapters of the book, just talking about we any 43 00:02:11,760 --> 00:02:13,760 Speaker 3: stage we don't like, we declare it is going to 44 00:02:13,840 --> 00:02:17,120 Speaker 3: kill college football, and it never does, and college football 45 00:02:17,280 --> 00:02:20,520 Speaker 3: continues to roll on and become at least as popular 46 00:02:20,680 --> 00:02:22,560 Speaker 3: or more popular. So I do think one of the 47 00:02:22,760 --> 00:02:24,760 Speaker 3: one of the things I really wanted to explore in 48 00:02:24,800 --> 00:02:27,840 Speaker 3: there was was look at warning signs, like, you know, 49 00:02:27,919 --> 00:02:31,760 Speaker 3: things are you can't find any discernible hints that this 50 00:02:31,880 --> 00:02:34,800 Speaker 3: is about to destroy the sport. Well, what has destroyed 51 00:02:34,840 --> 00:02:37,799 Speaker 3: other sports made? What caused NASCAR to you know a 52 00:02:37,840 --> 00:02:41,040 Speaker 3: little bit of a downfall, Why did baseball become less popular? 53 00:02:41,120 --> 00:02:42,520 Speaker 3: And just kind of look at some of the sports 54 00:02:42,520 --> 00:02:45,520 Speaker 3: boxing that were really, really really big and are still 55 00:02:45,760 --> 00:02:48,080 Speaker 3: plenty popular now but aren't as popular they don't have 56 00:02:48,280 --> 00:02:51,040 Speaker 3: as much money going in, so, you know, just try 57 00:02:51,080 --> 00:02:52,679 Speaker 3: to look at the warning signs there and create a 58 00:02:52,760 --> 00:02:55,480 Speaker 3: checklists of sorts of things we should probably avoid. 59 00:02:56,240 --> 00:02:58,920 Speaker 1: One thing. And you've made the case for for a 60 00:02:58,960 --> 00:03:02,400 Speaker 1: while for college football to have a commissioner. You've lobbied 61 00:03:02,400 --> 00:03:04,760 Speaker 1: for it in colins, you've written in the past, and 62 00:03:04,880 --> 00:03:06,400 Speaker 1: this is one of the things you touch on in 63 00:03:06,400 --> 00:03:10,400 Speaker 1: the books. Maybe not a commissioner, but is it realistic 64 00:03:10,440 --> 00:03:13,399 Speaker 1: to expect that there's an actual human being who's kind 65 00:03:13,400 --> 00:03:15,679 Speaker 1: of put in charge of the sport and tasked with 66 00:03:16,120 --> 00:03:19,880 Speaker 1: making decisions in college football's best interests, and not just 67 00:03:20,000 --> 00:03:22,760 Speaker 1: one or two conferences or one or two television networks. 68 00:03:23,680 --> 00:03:26,120 Speaker 3: Yeah. I mean, we've seen plenty of sports that have 69 00:03:26,200 --> 00:03:28,440 Speaker 3: a commissioner in place, and that commissioner don't do a 70 00:03:28,520 --> 00:03:30,200 Speaker 3: very good job, and things get a lot worse. But 71 00:03:30,280 --> 00:03:32,040 Speaker 3: it feels like the only thing worse than that is 72 00:03:32,080 --> 00:03:38,280 Speaker 3: just not having one, because then, by default, the senior power, 73 00:03:38,400 --> 00:03:42,440 Speaker 3: most powerful conference commissioner ends up being basically in charge 74 00:03:42,440 --> 00:03:44,720 Speaker 3: of the sport. Except they're in charge, they're always going 75 00:03:44,760 --> 00:03:46,960 Speaker 3: to make decisions based on self interest and it just 76 00:03:46,960 --> 00:03:51,600 Speaker 3: becomes a race, you know, a money race like everything 77 00:03:51,600 --> 00:03:54,640 Speaker 3: else does, and that cannot help everybody else. It's the 78 00:03:54,640 --> 00:03:57,320 Speaker 3: big ten s here just trying to vacuum up whatever 79 00:03:57,360 --> 00:04:00,920 Speaker 3: they possibly can uh and and and try to separate 80 00:04:00,960 --> 00:04:03,440 Speaker 3: themselves from the rest of the sport. That's not good. 81 00:04:03,440 --> 00:04:06,360 Speaker 3: That's not why I don't watch the sport for financial leverage. 82 00:04:06,400 --> 00:04:08,920 Speaker 3: I watch it for as many teams as possible being 83 00:04:08,960 --> 00:04:11,320 Speaker 3: capable of really big things. And it feels like we're 84 00:04:11,360 --> 00:04:13,520 Speaker 3: trying to gate things off a little bit more than usual. 85 00:04:14,200 --> 00:04:17,920 Speaker 1: So as a University of Cincinnati fan, right, we all 86 00:04:17,960 --> 00:04:20,359 Speaker 1: celebrate that they move into the Big Twelve, and you 87 00:04:20,480 --> 00:04:23,440 Speaker 1: know that on the field there's gonna be some growing pains, 88 00:04:23,440 --> 00:04:27,440 Speaker 1: and god knows there have been, but it it it 89 00:04:27,480 --> 00:04:29,560 Speaker 1: doesn't feel that different from when they were in the 90 00:04:29,600 --> 00:04:33,160 Speaker 1: American Athletic Conference in terms of how the conferences looked 91 00:04:33,160 --> 00:04:35,880 Speaker 1: at from you know, folks who love the Big Ten 92 00:04:36,040 --> 00:04:38,480 Speaker 1: or love schools in the Big Ten or the SEC, 93 00:04:39,120 --> 00:04:42,040 Speaker 1: and I don't see that changing, is it? 94 00:04:44,560 --> 00:04:46,880 Speaker 3: You mean, the way Big ten fans look at the 95 00:04:46,880 --> 00:04:48,160 Speaker 3: Big twelve, just the. 96 00:04:48,040 --> 00:04:50,960 Speaker 1: Perception of the the perception of the league doesn't seem 97 00:04:51,440 --> 00:04:52,960 Speaker 1: like it is what we thought it was going to 98 00:04:53,000 --> 00:04:55,560 Speaker 1: be when you see at tainmed membership. 99 00:04:56,080 --> 00:04:58,040 Speaker 2: Right, Yeah, No, I mean that was certainly there are 100 00:04:58,080 --> 00:05:02,120 Speaker 2: certain there's a certain number of brands in the sport, 101 00:05:02,240 --> 00:05:05,359 Speaker 2: and the Big Ten and SEC obviously have most of 102 00:05:05,360 --> 00:05:08,279 Speaker 2: them that are are guaranteed to occupy TV ratings and everything, 103 00:05:08,279 --> 00:05:10,919 Speaker 2: and everybody else is kind of left to finn for themselves. 104 00:05:10,960 --> 00:05:15,080 Speaker 3: And the people who want the Big tenor or are 105 00:05:15,120 --> 00:05:17,240 Speaker 3: based in the Big Ten, yeah, they're never going to 106 00:05:17,400 --> 00:05:20,279 Speaker 3: even if you know, the Big twelve, every single one 107 00:05:20,320 --> 00:05:22,159 Speaker 3: of those programs became as good as they were supposed 108 00:05:22,160 --> 00:05:24,839 Speaker 3: to be. A Big ten wouldn't wouldn't pretend that wasn't 109 00:05:24,839 --> 00:05:26,920 Speaker 3: the case, I guess, But I mean, all the Big 110 00:05:26,920 --> 00:05:29,559 Speaker 3: twelve can do is try to put an awesome product 111 00:05:29,640 --> 00:05:32,760 Speaker 3: on the field. Texas Tech is it looks good enough 112 00:05:32,839 --> 00:05:35,480 Speaker 3: that you know, not only are they likely to make 113 00:05:35,480 --> 00:05:37,240 Speaker 3: the playoff here, they're going to be capable of winning 114 00:05:37,279 --> 00:05:39,960 Speaker 3: a couple of games with that defensive front and the 115 00:05:40,000 --> 00:05:43,360 Speaker 3: way they're just explosive potential. In general, the Big twelve 116 00:05:43,400 --> 00:05:46,479 Speaker 3: makes the most of its opportunities. Then eventually, you know, 117 00:05:46,480 --> 00:05:50,039 Speaker 3: you'll basically whatever they want to or don't want to admit, 118 00:05:50,200 --> 00:05:53,000 Speaker 3: they're going to have to accept that the Big twelve 119 00:05:53,000 --> 00:05:55,920 Speaker 3: can play a role in national college football. So that's 120 00:05:55,960 --> 00:05:57,240 Speaker 3: all you can really do. And I do think there 121 00:05:57,240 --> 00:05:59,920 Speaker 3: are certain a good number of programs that are look 122 00:06:00,080 --> 00:06:02,480 Speaker 3: in pretty good in the short and long terms, and 123 00:06:02,520 --> 00:06:04,719 Speaker 3: obviously pure money has a lot to do with that. 124 00:06:05,560 --> 00:06:07,160 Speaker 3: But that's all the Big twelves can do is just 125 00:06:07,320 --> 00:06:08,720 Speaker 3: put a really good product on the field, and I 126 00:06:08,720 --> 00:06:09,960 Speaker 3: think it's kind of doing it this year. 127 00:06:10,800 --> 00:06:13,400 Speaker 1: Bill Connolly is with us his book Forward progress The 128 00:06:13,480 --> 00:06:17,000 Speaker 1: definitive Guide to the future of college football. Could college 129 00:06:17,040 --> 00:06:21,320 Speaker 1: football's future ever include a scenario where we're all okay 130 00:06:21,360 --> 00:06:25,640 Speaker 1: with the process that is used to determine which teams 131 00:06:25,680 --> 00:06:26,680 Speaker 1: play for a championship? 132 00:06:28,200 --> 00:06:32,480 Speaker 3: Absolutely not. That's I'm very definitive on that one. We're 133 00:06:32,480 --> 00:06:34,080 Speaker 3: always going to look for a reason to complain. 134 00:06:34,160 --> 00:06:34,680 Speaker 1: But I do. 135 00:06:34,640 --> 00:06:38,159 Speaker 3: Think, I mean, you know, anytime I get a chance 136 00:06:38,200 --> 00:06:40,840 Speaker 3: to advocate for a return of a formula of sorts, 137 00:06:41,400 --> 00:06:43,360 Speaker 3: I do you know that it's something I like to 138 00:06:43,400 --> 00:06:46,200 Speaker 3: push for, because, as I always say, people didn't hate 139 00:06:46,240 --> 00:06:48,440 Speaker 3: the BCF formula. They hated that the BCS could only 140 00:06:48,520 --> 00:06:51,520 Speaker 3: choose two teams and that bar was just too high. 141 00:06:51,640 --> 00:06:54,520 Speaker 3: And so the fact that most of the oxygen in 142 00:06:54,600 --> 00:06:57,039 Speaker 3: recent weeks has been taken up by arguing about Notre 143 00:06:57,120 --> 00:06:59,960 Speaker 3: Dame in Miami, you know, Miami, who lost a lot 144 00:07:00,200 --> 00:07:02,680 Speaker 3: two games in a bad acc and that's the most 145 00:07:02,720 --> 00:07:05,680 Speaker 3: outrage we can get. I figure that's that's a massive 146 00:07:05,720 --> 00:07:09,200 Speaker 3: improvement right there. So it is proof that we're always 147 00:07:09,200 --> 00:07:10,680 Speaker 3: going to figure out something to yell about. And I'm 148 00:07:10,680 --> 00:07:14,119 Speaker 3: guilty of that too, But now we're gonna it doesn't 149 00:07:14,240 --> 00:07:17,520 Speaker 3: there's no magic formatter even with a formula, we'd still get. 150 00:07:17,320 --> 00:07:20,559 Speaker 1: Mad when when you have been on the losing side 151 00:07:20,560 --> 00:07:23,800 Speaker 1: of a rivalry game like Ohio State has been with Michigan. 152 00:07:23,960 --> 00:07:26,480 Speaker 1: Right you, on one hand, you could look at your 153 00:07:26,600 --> 00:07:29,000 Speaker 1: S and P plus projection which you have at ESPN 154 00:07:29,080 --> 00:07:31,360 Speaker 1: dot com that has Ohio State winning by more than 155 00:07:31,360 --> 00:07:33,840 Speaker 1: two touchdowns. Yet there's the emotional part of it right 156 00:07:33,880 --> 00:07:37,400 Speaker 1: where it's Ryan Day against Michigan, it's the Wolverines, it's 157 00:07:37,480 --> 00:07:41,880 Speaker 1: recent history. So what should Buckeyes fans do with that 158 00:07:41,960 --> 00:07:44,000 Speaker 1: fourteen and a half point projection you have for that 159 00:07:44,080 --> 00:07:44,920 Speaker 1: game on Saturday. 160 00:07:45,800 --> 00:07:48,520 Speaker 3: Well, I just finished my preview for the week it'll 161 00:07:48,560 --> 00:07:50,960 Speaker 3: go up tomorrow, and I kind of as I was 162 00:07:51,000 --> 00:07:53,080 Speaker 3: writing it, I cracked myself up because I realized we 163 00:07:53,120 --> 00:07:55,400 Speaker 3: have a new thing with both Ohio State and Michigan 164 00:07:55,720 --> 00:07:58,400 Speaker 3: and A and m Texas. There's now the role of 165 00:07:58,640 --> 00:08:02,640 Speaker 3: unbeaten spoiler, where like Oha said, obviously he wants to 166 00:08:02,800 --> 00:08:05,840 Speaker 3: end the streak and beat up Michigan because it's just 167 00:08:05,880 --> 00:08:08,040 Speaker 3: always you always have to beat Michigan. But now they 168 00:08:08,120 --> 00:08:10,480 Speaker 3: can actually play. They're so good that they can play 169 00:08:10,480 --> 00:08:13,440 Speaker 3: spoiler on Michigan and make sure that there's no chance 170 00:08:13,440 --> 00:08:16,320 Speaker 3: of them making the playoff too, So that's kind of funny. 171 00:08:16,400 --> 00:08:18,560 Speaker 3: Usually it's the other way around. It's the lesser team 172 00:08:18,600 --> 00:08:22,520 Speaker 3: trying to run the good team's title hopes. Now it's 173 00:08:22,520 --> 00:08:25,560 Speaker 3: a reverse. And so in a way, if Ohio State 174 00:08:25,600 --> 00:08:28,080 Speaker 3: wins this year, which I bet they do, but I'm 175 00:08:28,080 --> 00:08:31,800 Speaker 3: not bet much, it really would kind of it'd be 176 00:08:31,840 --> 00:08:33,800 Speaker 3: like a double win. You'd finally get the monkey off 177 00:08:33,800 --> 00:08:36,760 Speaker 3: your back. And also you'd relegate, you know, Michigan to 178 00:08:36,800 --> 00:08:38,120 Speaker 3: the Capitol One Bowl or whatever. 179 00:08:40,320 --> 00:08:43,080 Speaker 1: I've enjoyed your work for years, thoroughly enjoyed the book. 180 00:08:43,120 --> 00:08:44,680 Speaker 1: Awesome to have you on the show with us. Bill, 181 00:08:44,679 --> 00:08:49,880 Speaker 1: Thank you, absolutely take care. That's Bill Connolly ESPN. His 182 00:08:50,200 --> 00:08:53,520 Speaker 1: weekly projections and previews available at espn dot com, and 183 00:08:53,600 --> 00:08:57,800 Speaker 1: his book, which I thoroughly enjoyed. Read it late this summer. 184 00:08:57,840 --> 00:09:01,680 Speaker 1: Forward Progress, The Definitive Guide to the Future of College Football. 185 00:09:01,720 --> 00:09:03,360 Speaker 1: That was a busy hour. We had a lot there. 186 00:09:03,840 --> 00:09:05,960 Speaker 1: I think we are clear till four thirty in terms 187 00:09:06,000 --> 00:09:08,920 Speaker 1: of guests. I have given you absolutely nothing to call 188 00:09:08,960 --> 00:09:11,080 Speaker 1: me about. But our lines aren't open for the next 189 00:09:11,360 --> 00:09:13,920 Speaker 1: thirty minutes or so. Five went, three, seven, four, nine, 190 00:09:14,240 --> 00:09:17,200 Speaker 1: fifteen thirty. We have a Joe Burrow playing on Thursday. 191 00:09:17,520 --> 00:09:21,280 Speaker 1: I respect the hell out of Joe Burrow. Like to me, 192 00:09:21,400 --> 00:09:25,000 Speaker 1: there's there's room for multiple truths, there's room for multiple beliefs, 193 00:09:26,000 --> 00:09:29,720 Speaker 1: and I'll share with you a bunch of beliefs, and 194 00:09:29,840 --> 00:09:31,560 Speaker 1: some of them might be in conflict with each other. 195 00:09:31,600 --> 00:09:33,320 Speaker 1: We'll do that as it relates to Joe. We'll spend 196 00:09:33,520 --> 00:09:35,880 Speaker 1: a little bit more time on the Bearcats coming up 197 00:09:35,920 --> 00:09:38,160 Speaker 1: here in just a bit. Amy Wagner in the next 198 00:09:38,200 --> 00:09:41,440 Speaker 1: hour on sports and money, and Dan Klaskins will help 199 00:09:41,480 --> 00:09:44,120 Speaker 1: you with fantasy football this weekend as well. We are 200 00:09:44,160 --> 00:09:47,720 Speaker 1: at Oakley Greens. We're here till six o'clock tonight, hanging 201 00:09:47,760 --> 00:09:50,240 Speaker 1: out on ESPN fifteen thirty, Cincinnati Sports Station.