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Speaker 1: The talk station.

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Speaker 2: It was six if if you five garcied Talk station.

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Speaker 2: Happy Monday to you. Coming up the next segment, we're

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Speaker 2: gonna an abbreviated Money Monday with Brian James. Not because

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Speaker 2: we don't want to talk to Brian, because Vva Ramaswam

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Speaker 2: is going to join the program at eight twenty talk

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Speaker 2: about well his new running mate Rob McCauley and op

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Speaker 2: ed that he wrote the other day that I read

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Speaker 2: on the air was amazing, plus his fundraising. Zach Haynes

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Speaker 2: is going to join the program. Bottom the Art, the

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Speaker 2: Ohio State Senate candidate for District seven, earned the Americans

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Speaker 2: for Prosperity endorsement, so he'll join the program. Then in

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Speaker 2: the meantime, Brian James Smallworth Financial give it us some information.

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Speaker 2: I guess our retirement number change. Welcome back, Brian James.

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Speaker 2: It's always great talking with you on the morning show.

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Speaker 1: Absolutely, we'll do a minuscule Money Monday this morning to

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Speaker 1: make room for some other voices as well. But yeah,

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Speaker 1: happy New Year to you and everybody out there in

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Speaker 1: the listening world. Here, we kind of thought it would

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Speaker 1: be a good year to or a good time at

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Speaker 1: the beginning of the year here to just kind of

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Speaker 1: layout the what does it look like nowadays with inflation

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Speaker 1: for people who are thinking big picture around retire All right.

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Speaker 2: Well, we did see reduced inflation. We're no longer at

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Speaker 2: eight percent I guess last year, as you point out

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Speaker 2: in your notes, three percent. Not so bad. A little

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Speaker 2: bit higher than I guess the two percent, which is

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Speaker 2: the ideal figure, but not so bad.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it's tolerable. Right, So with the Federal Reserve would

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Speaker 1: very very much prefer we want to be around two percent.

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Speaker 1: That's the goal to get the interest rates down, an

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Speaker 1: inflation down to a level that is sustainable over time.

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Speaker 1: We've been stuck at three percent for a long time.

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Speaker 1: But as you point out, we're not at nine percent.

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Speaker 1: I do not have people anymore talking about, oh my gosh,

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Speaker 1: we have to change our portfolio drastically because this nine

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Speaker 1: percent inflation rate is going to hang around forever. That

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Speaker 1: was transitory. The overall inflation was not, as we learned,

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Speaker 1: different different from what the Biden administration told us. For

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Speaker 1: a very long time. Inflation did hang around, but not

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Speaker 1: at those ridiculous levels.

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Speaker 2: Well, as we've had many conversations before, and what you

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Speaker 2: can expect on average over the life of your long

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Speaker 2: term investments, isn't it like eight percent is really kind

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Speaker 2: of where you over time.

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Speaker 1: Of course, it all depends on how aggressive you're gonna

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Speaker 1: be with your investments. I mean, realistically, if you look

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Speaker 1: at the stock market, it's averaged ten percent over thirty years,

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Speaker 1: and these are real numbers. They do take into account.

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Speaker 1: Of course, you know, the last thirty years include some

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Speaker 1: of the scariest years we've ever had, three of them

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Speaker 1: in fact, thousand and two, two thousand and eight, and

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Speaker 1: twenty twenty two, and as well as some of the

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Speaker 1: best years we've ever had. But if you smush it

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Speaker 1: all together, the stock market itself has averaged in the

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Speaker 1: neighborhood of ten percent. That doesn't mean you should throw

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Speaker 1: all your money in the stock market. That said, you know,

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Speaker 1: if you have a long term time frame, sure that's

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Speaker 1: an okay thing to do, as long as you understand

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Speaker 1: the roller coaster. Now, on the other hand, and what

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Speaker 1: we're really talking about today, if you are in a

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Speaker 1: situation where it's time to start drawing on that nest

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Speaker 1: egg and hopefully you'll all be there someday, then you

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Speaker 1: don't want to ride that roller coaster as much, because

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Speaker 1: you'll be sitting in a situation where the market may

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Speaker 1: have taken taken ten percent from your portfolio, plus you

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Speaker 1: need to withdraw four maybe five percent to pay the bills,

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Speaker 1: and that can dig us into a hole that sometimes

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Speaker 1: we can can't get out of.

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Speaker 2: Bran So how does one assess that withdraw raiding? I

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Speaker 2: note that you mentioned four percent that apparently was the

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Speaker 2: rule of thumb, So how do you reassess or currently

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Speaker 2: assess that if you're at this place.

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Speaker 1: Right, So let's go. Let's do a little history on

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Speaker 1: that four percent rule. That came from a study that

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Speaker 1: went from the that studied thirty year periods, assuming that's

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Speaker 1: kind of the average retirement length of time before end

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Speaker 1: of life expectancy, thirty year periods starting from the nineteen thirties,

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Speaker 1: so nineteen thirty to nineteen sixty, thirty one to sixty one,

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Speaker 1: thirty two to sixty two, and on and on and

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Speaker 1: on all through that time period. And the conclusion was,

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Speaker 1: if you withdrew four percent of your portfolio and the

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Speaker 1: market did what it did over those thirty year periods,

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Speaker 1: that's historical information. The four percent would never There are

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Speaker 1: no thirty year periods where that four percent would have

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Speaker 1: bankrupted you even in all with all the crazy stuff

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Speaker 1: that happened in those thirty year time periods. So that's

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Speaker 1: where that comes from. A lot of people have been

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Speaker 1: hanging their hats on that. It gets attacked every now

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Speaker 1: and then because of inflation concern or concerns that the

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Speaker 1: stock market is running too hot, we're relying too much

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Speaker 1: on history. But it still seems to be holding true.

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Speaker 1: You know, some people want to come back and say, well,

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Speaker 1: maybe I need to back off to three percent just

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Speaker 1: to be on the safe side. There's, of course nothing

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Speaker 1: wrong with that, bearing in mind that lifestyle is lifestyle

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Speaker 1: and that really does mean true sacrifices that you will see,

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Speaker 1: touch and feel in how you live your lives. But

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Speaker 1: at the same time, the whole point is, let's sit down.

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Speaker 1: Most people haven't even figured out what the lifestyle is let.

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Speaker 2: Alone, but rate does to it well. And how long

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Speaker 2: is any given person going to live too? Because the idea,

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Speaker 2: of course, you want this money to last you through

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Speaker 2: your retirement, and retirement quite often is the time when

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Speaker 2: people get hit with, you know, the biggest medical bills,

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Speaker 2: the biggest complications, the problems. You don't have any money

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Speaker 2: coming in the door, and how many years am I

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Speaker 2: going to be around on this planet to need to

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Speaker 2: be able to tap into my my savings. So it's

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Speaker 2: the levels of difficulty and coming up with the accurate

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Speaker 2: numbers seem to be almost insurmountable.

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Speaker 1: Brode. Yeah, it really does. And that's why I have

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Speaker 1: a job, frankly, because we have to simulate an awful

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Speaker 1: lot of different you know, I always walk people through that,

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Speaker 1: here's the honky dory outcome, here's everything you ever wanted

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Speaker 1: to do, and nothing bad ever happens. Again, that's our baseline,

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Speaker 1: and then next to that we can put in Okay, well,

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Speaker 1: let's pretend we have instead of three percent inflation, let's

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Speaker 1: pretend it's four percent or five percent something like that.

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Speaker 1: What happens there, and all we're doing is we're playing

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Speaker 1: with spending and time. Any financial plan is only looking

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Speaker 1: at those two things. When you truly boil it down,

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Speaker 1: there's a million different buttons to push and levers to

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Speaker 1: pull to illustrate that. But again, it's only spending and time.

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Speaker 1: That's all we're dealing with. So then right next to it,

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Speaker 1: we'll do a stress test which could be maybe we

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Speaker 1: have four or five percent inflation, or it could be

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Speaker 1: let's pretend the market punches us in the face right now,

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Speaker 1: that happened to anybody who retired in twenty twenty one.

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Speaker 1: They thought things were hunky dory, but then twenty twenty

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Speaker 1: two came along and took away possibly up to a

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Speaker 1: twenty percent of their portfolio for a brief period of time. Now,

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Speaker 1: for those who panic and sell out when that happens, yeah,

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Speaker 1: that's a permanent hit. You're not getting it back. On

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Speaker 1: the other hand, if you keep your head and you

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Speaker 1: understand market history and you can ride those things out

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Speaker 1: and still stay retired, you might not like it. That's

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Speaker 1: a different scenario, but it doesn't mean you can't afford

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Speaker 1: to take that hit. But the important thing is to

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Speaker 1: know what kind of hit you can take in the

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Speaker 1: first place, and most people don't well.

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Speaker 2: And one of the other choices people have to consider is,

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Speaker 2: you know, delaying retirement rather than when taking socials security

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Speaker 2: on the earlier side, you do end up with a

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Speaker 2: lot more by way of monthly pay. And if you

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Speaker 2: can kick it off to say seventy oh.

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Speaker 1: Absolutely you do. And yeah, so financial planning is easy

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Speaker 1: if your only goal is to poke the government in

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Speaker 1: the eye. Right, Some people come in and say, by God,

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Speaker 1: my plan revolves around me not taking Social Security until

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Speaker 1: seventy because I want as much money as that government

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Speaker 1: is ever going to give me. That's great. I will

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Speaker 1: say that in my thirty years of doing this, I

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Speaker 1: have a lot more fifty five year olds who say

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Speaker 1: that versus sixty five year olds. Our thoughts tend to

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Speaker 1: change over time, and I just I want my life back.

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Speaker 1: It's less about punching the government in my face, and

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Speaker 1: I just want my life.

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Speaker 2: I was laughing about that so hard because it seems

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Speaker 2: to me a moment in time ago, I wouldn't even

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Speaker 2: entertain the idea of discussing retirement, Like, what the hell

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Speaker 2: am I going to do? No, I'm probably gonna die

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Speaker 2: behind whatever job I'm going to do, is always my

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Speaker 2: philosophy at this particular point, die behind the microphone. But no,

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Speaker 2: I think about retirement all the time now, Bryan, a

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Speaker 2: little different.

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Speaker 1: You know, the more we age, the more we think

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Speaker 1: about it. It looks kind of cool, really is.

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Speaker 2: And then real estate and liquidity, I understand, and that

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Speaker 2: makes perfect sense. A lot of your clients have a

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Speaker 2: significant amount of money tied up in real estate, but

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Speaker 2: can you actually access it? And is it something that

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Speaker 2: you should factor in terms of your overall investments, Like

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Speaker 2: you've got a million dollars invested in the markets are

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Speaker 2: distributed to mutual funds and bonds and all that, And

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Speaker 2: if you've got a million dollars in house, you really

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Speaker 2: don't have two million to play with, do you No?

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Speaker 1: Exactly? Because that's hard to get to. You got to

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Speaker 1: keep the rain off your stuff, so you have to

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Speaker 1: have a roof over your head. There are ways to

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Speaker 1: do it, I mean you can. There are ways to

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Speaker 1: access that. The home equity lines of credit, by the way,

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Speaker 1: I think those are a good idea, even if it's

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Speaker 1: a just in case, because debt against your home is

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Speaker 1: probably going to be the best debt you can ever get.

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Speaker 1: Most people aren't comfortable with this, but when it comes

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Speaker 1: down to you, I'll give an example. So let's say

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Speaker 1: you figure out you need to buy a car, you know,

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Speaker 1: sooner than you thought you would, or something like that,

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Speaker 1: and you don't have the cash or what more happens.

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Speaker 1: More commonly happens is you know what, I don't want

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Speaker 1: to take anymore. Let's say you're at the end of

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Speaker 1: the year. I don't want to take any more tax hets,

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Speaker 1: I don't want to cause any more taxation. I really

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Speaker 1: want to push this into the next year. Right, you

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Speaker 1: could borrow fifty thousand dollars against your home. Let's pretend

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Speaker 1: that you're getting charged maybe six or seven percent on that.

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Speaker 1: Borrow fifty thousand dollars against the home in you know,

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Speaker 1: the November December timeframe to get the situation fixed, and

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Speaker 1: then in January February, when we're in a new tax year,

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Speaker 1: that's when you take the distribution and cause the taxation.

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Speaker 1: You know, we don't want that. But at the same time,

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Speaker 1: all you will have done in that case is borrowed

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Speaker 1: fifty thousand dollars and you pay again currently six to

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Speaker 1: seven percent interest on that, but only for a few months.

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Speaker 1: So you're really talking less than one or two percent

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Speaker 1: true hard dollars worth of interest. And that beats the

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Speaker 1: heck out of needing to finance things, you know, with

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Speaker 1: a credit card or you know, or borrowing from the

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Speaker 1: from the dealership for fixed amount of time. Well, there

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Speaker 1: are ways to tap into that. I think it's a

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Speaker 1: good idea to have a home equity line of credit

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Speaker 1: in your back pocket even if you never draw on it.

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Speaker 2: Well, isn't that how the uber rich manage their money

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Speaker 2: and avoid paying income taxes?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, don't sell your assets, borrow against them. Right, If

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Speaker 1: you want to play that game, then don't sell anything.

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Speaker 1: Figure out how you can borrow against them. If you

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Speaker 1: have a portfolio of securities outside of an IRA, you

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Speaker 1: can do margin loans, you can do portfolio loans. You

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Speaker 1: can borrow against those. Yes, there have to be payments made.

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Speaker 1: You are jumping through financial hoops to do this, of course,

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Speaker 1: But there's a reason that rich people get rich.

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Speaker 2: Brian James, very interesting and informative discussion we've had here.

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Speaker 2: As we end of the new year, consider that. And

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Speaker 2: of course, as I always point out, it's great to

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Speaker 2: think half a financial planner sitting on your side of

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Speaker 2: the table, one that knows you for douce youry obligation.

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Speaker 2: That way, you don't have to fret and worry about

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Speaker 2: these issues day to day. Let somebody like Brian do it.

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Speaker 2: Brian James, appreciate all worth loading you out every Monday.

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Speaker 2: We'll do this again next Monday. I hope you have

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Speaker 2: a fantastic week. My friend, you bet have a good week.

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Speaker 2: We'll talk to you Monday, age fifteen. Right now, if

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Speaker 2: if, if I have cares the talk station of the Quick

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Speaker 2: Word for my friends and Zimmer