Speaker 1: This is America's Trucking Network with Kevin Gordon.
Speaker 2: Lovable or thanks for tuning in, as we begin our
Speaker 2: week here on America's struck A Network. You know, looking
Speaker 2: at some of the weather reports over the weekend, you know,
Speaker 2: they had all these hurricanes and potential hurricanes title or
Speaker 2: tropical waves is what they were calling them, all mixing
Speaker 2: up in the western Atlantic Ocean near our east coast. Now,
Speaker 2: we did have what was it Amelda that gave a
Speaker 2: little bit of storm surge and I think it took
Speaker 2: out about twelve houses along the North Carolina Shore on
Speaker 2: the outer Banks. Which given the fact that we're in
Speaker 2: the middle of the hurricane season from June one until
Speaker 2: November thirtieth, we have been doing pretty well so far.
Speaker 2: So right now there are no tropical storms tropical cyclones
Speaker 2: in the Atlantic at this time, so that is very
Speaker 2: good news. What is going on, you know, of course
Speaker 2: we've got the government shut down, But what's interesting is
Speaker 2: some of the news that's coming out as a result
Speaker 2: of that. Let's go through this. We have certain economic
Speaker 2: reports that come out from the Bureau of Labor Statistics
Speaker 2: and other organizations attached to the government, which we're supposed
Speaker 2: to come out on Thursday and Friday, but they've been
Speaker 2: delayed as a result of the shutdown. But there's been
Speaker 2: some economic news that has been coming out which is
Speaker 2: interesting how that's gathered, and we'll talk about that in
Speaker 2: a minute. Here a report shows hiring at the lowest
Speaker 2: level since two thousand and nine as economists turned to
Speaker 2: alternate data during shutdown blackout. Unemployment changed little in September,
Speaker 2: while layoff and hiring rates both slowed. According to a
Speaker 2: separate labor market report on the last third, the jobless
Speaker 2: level barely moved at four point three four percent, according
Speaker 2: to the relatively new set of data indicators compiled by
Speaker 2: the Chicago Federal Reserve. Now they stop here for a second.
Speaker 2: The Federal Reserve employs twenty three thousand people. Twenty three
Speaker 2: thousand people. What in the hell do all those people do?
Speaker 2: Why aren't they gathering all this economic data? Why do
Speaker 2: they depend on the Bureau of Labor Statistics? Like I
Speaker 2: said twenty three, what do they do? They hire a
Speaker 2: bunch of these economists and they're supposed to know what
Speaker 2: are they sitting around on their thumbs all day? I mean,
Speaker 2: nobody talks about what they do. Nobody talks about what
Speaker 2: information they gather. And so if they are gathering this
Speaker 2: information and they claim, as they say, is all this
Speaker 2: talk about Donald Trump trying to replace lion Jerry Power?
Speaker 2: And they said, whoa. You know if he does that,
Speaker 2: you know that's going to put into question the independence
Speaker 2: of the Federal Reserve. And when Donald Trump tries to
Speaker 2: nominate somebody to the Federal Reserve, all of a sudden, it's, oh,
Speaker 2: he's trying to make the Federal Reserve more conservative. Well,
Speaker 2: you don't think Joe Biden when he added people to
Speaker 2: the Federal Reserve, or Bill Clinton or Obama that they
Speaker 2: weren't somehow more liberal. As a matter of fact, Austin Goldsby,
Speaker 2: you may have heard that name. He was one of
Speaker 2: the chief economic advisors to Obama. He is now head
Speaker 2: of the Federal Reserve in Chicago for that region. So
Speaker 2: that's a political appointment. And let me tell you some
Speaker 2: of the liberal crap that came out of his mouth
Speaker 2: during the Obama administration and advisory as far as the
Speaker 2: Obama administration was very questionable. So this whole idea of
Speaker 2: the Federal Reserve quote being independent, is independent to a
Speaker 2: certain extent except when a Republican is nominating people. So
Speaker 2: if the Federal Reserve is capable of coming up with
Speaker 2: these statistics, why aren't And of course supposedly they're independent.
Speaker 2: Bureau of Labor statistics is the Department of Treasury is
Speaker 2: under the Department of Treasury. So with that being part
Speaker 2: of the federal government, part of whatever president is in
Speaker 2: office at that time, should they question that or do
Speaker 2: we have just a bunch of bureaucrats in that area
Speaker 2: that really no matter who's in that department, which generally
Speaker 2: is more liberal attainted that, how independent is that information?
Speaker 2: So continue on here. Again, all this data is compiled
Speaker 2: by the Chicago Federal Reserve, which again is headed by
Speaker 2: Austin Goldsby, who is a liberal. I'm not sure how
Speaker 2: much control he has over this, but again that's worth
Speaker 2: noting that represented a little change from August though the
Speaker 2: unemployment rate four point three four percent was just one
Speaker 2: one hundredth of a percentage point away from moving up
Speaker 2: to four point four percent. Now, you don't have to
Speaker 2: be really good at math to figure out that four
Speaker 2: point three four percent plus point one percent would take
Speaker 2: that up to four point three five percent. How is
Speaker 2: that one hundredth of a point away from four percent. Really,
Speaker 2: do they not understand math? Maybe that's probably the problem
Speaker 2: with some of this economic data that we don't have
Speaker 2: anybody that knows how to add, to subtract and multiply
Speaker 2: and divide. Four point three four percent is not a
Speaker 2: one hundredth of a percentage point away from four point
Speaker 2: four percent. It's one hundredth of a point away from
Speaker 2: four point three five percent. But anyway, let's continue on here.
Speaker 2: Four point four percent the highest level since October of
Speaker 2: twenty twenty one, which is false. In September, the Central
Speaker 2: Bank District announced it would be releasing its own dashboard
Speaker 2: of labor market indicators. That also includes the layoff rate,
Speaker 2: which was little change monthly at two point one percent,
Speaker 2: and the hiring rate, which moved closer lower to forty
Speaker 2: five point two percent, down four ten percent from August.
Speaker 2: So if there are all these other agencies out there,
Speaker 2: We've got the ADP payroll report that comes out that
Speaker 2: people rely on. We have the Challenger Challenger Christmas and
Speaker 2: whatever that hiring firm A Challenger Great Challenger Gray and
Speaker 2: Christmas is the name of the organization, and they have
Speaker 2: economic data that they track as far as hirings and
Speaker 2: firings because they do a lot of recruiting and so on,
Speaker 2: so they are aware of it. Why can't these organizations
Speaker 2: prepare and present this economic data rather than the Bureau
Speaker 2: of Labor Statistics and with a bloated bureaucracy. And again,
Speaker 2: if these people are out in the marketplace, if they
Speaker 2: are dealing with it on a day to day basis,
Speaker 2: wouldn't you think that their information is a little bit
Speaker 2: more accurate. And another little thing is that as we
Speaker 2: get into this economic data, as we looked at that
Speaker 2: Bureau of Labor Statistics report where that one lady got
Speaker 2: fired as a result of you know, in the previous
Speaker 2: year they missed the employment. They over reported jobs by
Speaker 2: what was it, eight hundred and eighteen thousand, and then
Speaker 2: this year they overestimated that by nine hundred and eleven thousand.
Speaker 2: In other words, they overestimated the number of jobs that
Speaker 2: were created by nine hundred and eleven thousand. Now, again
Speaker 2: that report was at the from March of last year
Speaker 2: until March of this year, but the data came out
Speaker 2: in August, so they missed that by that much, almost
Speaker 2: a million jobs that they missed or overestimated over the
Speaker 2: last couple mile. Actually, if you add the two years together,
Speaker 2: that's almost one point eight million jobs that were over reported.
Speaker 2: So if they're that bad at gathering that data, why
Speaker 2: is that data being relied upon? And little known fact,
Speaker 2: it's interesting that since Donald Trump has been in office,
Speaker 2: and during his first term as well, when he talks
Speaker 2: about certain things, what he's doing is pulling the curtain
Speaker 2: back on everything that is being done. It's almost like
Speaker 2: the Wizard of Oz, you know, all of a sudden,
Speaker 2: the dog goes up and pulls the curtain back and
Speaker 2: finds out that the wizard is actually somebody behind a
Speaker 2: curtain controlling all the levers, and it's really just a
Speaker 2: man and not some grand wizard. Now, so when he
Speaker 2: pulls the curtain back, we learn certain things. We learn
Speaker 2: that these data from the federal government is based on surveys.
Speaker 2: They send out these surveys they ask for people to
Speaker 2: respond to that the response rate, you know, when they're
Speaker 2: supposed to be done by a certain date, they get
Speaker 2: about a sixty percent result. That's why in the following
Speaker 2: month you see these adjustments because they get more data
Speaker 2: in after the due date and then they usually have
Speaker 2: a third revision because then they get in more of
Speaker 2: these surveys. So if you're depending upon people and it's
Speaker 2: not it's not forced, it's not mandated that they report,
Speaker 2: So all of this report is based on people returning surveys,
Speaker 2: so it's it's not really scientific and obviously not very accurate.
Speaker 2: We'll pick this up on the other side. I'm Kevin Gordon,
Speaker 2: america'struck In Network seven hundred WLW.
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Speaker 4: Sunday and is at the Charlotte Roval battling second place KYLEL.
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Speaker 4: drivers are Larson, Chase Elliott, Denny Hamblin, Ryan Blaney, Chase Briscoe,
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Speaker 4: The Infinity Round of eight playoff drivers include Zilig, Brandon Jones,
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Speaker 4: Smith and Jesse Love. The NASCAR Playoffs continue this coming
Speaker 4: weekend for the Cup at Infinity. Drivers in Las Vegas.
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Speaker 2: Downloaded now. I'm Kevin Gored in America struck a network
Speaker 2: seven hundred WLW talking about this report shows hiring it
Speaker 2: lois since two thousand and nine, as economists turned to
Speaker 2: alternate alternative data during shutdown blackout. They go on to
Speaker 2: report here that represents a little change blah blah blah
Speaker 2: in terms of the unemployment rate. In September, the Central
Speaker 2: Bank announced that it would be releasing its own dashboard.
Speaker 2: I mentioned that in the previous segment, so now we're
Speaker 2: depending on them to release this data. Elsewhere in the
Speaker 2: labor market, outplacement firm Challenger, Great and Christmas reported that
Speaker 2: layoff announcements declined by thirty seven percent in September, and
Speaker 2: we're down twenty six percent from the same month a
Speaker 2: year ago. So again, the layoff announcements declined by thirty
Speaker 2: seven percent, So that means that there's a lot less
Speaker 2: companies that are talking about laying people off to the
Speaker 2: tune of about thirty seven percent and down twenty six
Speaker 2: percent from the same month a year ago. However, the
Speaker 2: year to date level of planning furloughs as the highest
Speaker 2: since twenty twenty, the year of the COVID plandemic I'm sorry, pandemic.
Speaker 2: According to this Challengers said announced cuts have totaled nine
Speaker 2: hundred and forty six thousand, basically nine hundred and forty
Speaker 2: six thousand through the first three quarters. The figure already
Speaker 2: is twenty four percent higher than all of twenty twenty four,
Speaker 2: which kind of discounts or pulls into question what they
Speaker 2: said in the previous paragraph where they set it declined
Speaker 2: thirty seven percent in September, and we're down twenty six
Speaker 2: percent from the same month a year ago, So now
Speaker 2: are they talking about then on a yearly basis, it's
Speaker 2: still already twenty four percent higher than all of twenty
Speaker 2: twenty four. Again, that has to do with company these
Speaker 2: uh switching, companies looking being a little bit leaner, companies
Speaker 2: not hiring as much, companies if people are being what
Speaker 2: people are quitting, are not being replaced. Are some of
Speaker 2: these layoffs? Are they tying in some of the federal
Speaker 2: employees that have been laid off, because that's a whole
Speaker 2: different bucket, But they don't go into that here. And
Speaker 2: the fact that they are able to come up with
Speaker 2: this data and present it, Why are we then dependent
Speaker 2: upon an agency of the federal government doing that? Why
Speaker 2: don't we Why doesn't the federal government outsource some of
Speaker 2: this information to other more reputable organizations, pay a fee,
Speaker 2: pay a fee to get that information or something, or
Speaker 2: allow these companies to just go ahead and gather the
Speaker 2: data and present it, because again it is their job.
Speaker 2: It is them that are doing more outplacement. They are
Speaker 2: doing more higher you know, doing the recruiting, and so
Speaker 2: they would have a lot more accurate data in order
Speaker 2: to present and if they're trying to keep their business afloat,
Speaker 2: they would want to have accurate data. If you're in
Speaker 2: the government and you're off well, like we saw, we
Speaker 2: had the said the lady that was in charge of
Speaker 2: Bureau of Labor Statistics, she blew that number by eight
Speaker 2: hundred and eighteen thousand jobs the previous year, kept her job,
Speaker 2: all the people underneath her kept their job. Then all
Speaker 2: of a sudden, the following year they doubled down more
Speaker 2: than increased that by another nine hundred and eleven thousand,
Speaker 2: and then everybody was surprised when Donald Trump said this
Speaker 2: person needs to be fired. And they said, well, you know,
Speaker 2: now you're messing with the independence of this agency. Who
Speaker 2: cares about the independence of this agency If they're giving
Speaker 2: you crappy data, and they blamed They said, well, you know,
Speaker 2: a lot of the information is coming from other sources. Well,
Speaker 2: I'm sorry. If you're ahead of the organization and the
Speaker 2: people underneath you, you're dependent upon them doing their job,
Speaker 2: and then the people under them doing their job and
Speaker 2: giving you the information, and then the information comes up
Speaker 2: and you're the one that reports it. I would think
Speaker 2: that as the head of that organization and say, you
Speaker 2: better damn well be sure that all this information that
Speaker 2: you're giving me, because I don't want to look bad
Speaker 2: and I don't want to lose my job. Maybe you
Speaker 2: ought to lose your job, and I get somebody else
Speaker 2: in here that'll give us the accurate data. But again,
Speaker 2: in these bureaucracies, it's so difficult to get people fired,
Speaker 2: to get people laid off, or to you know, to
Speaker 2: streamline some of these agencies. And if they're not doing
Speaker 2: these jobs properly, then why are they even there in
Speaker 2: that position to begin with? And I go back to
Speaker 2: the Federal Reserve. Federal Reserve has twenty three thousand employees.
Speaker 2: Now Ron Paul when he ran Paul's father, he was
Speaker 2: a congressman from Texas. He always talked about and introduced
Speaker 2: bills to audit the FED because the Federal depends on
Speaker 2: the Federal Reserve for this information, and they're the ones
Speaker 2: that determine the interest rate as far as that overnight banking,
Speaker 2: and it's you know that four point three percent in
Speaker 2: terms of the banks. If they need money, they borrow
Speaker 2: from other banks, and that's the overnight rate that they borrow,
Speaker 2: and then that affects the interest rates as far as
Speaker 2: credit cards, loans, and then also eventually goes over into
Speaker 2: the housing market and affects the interest rates over there.
Speaker 2: So if this organization is just spiraling out of control,
Speaker 2: has way too many employees. As a matter of fact,
Speaker 2: during this whole flat with Lion Jerry Powell and Donald Trump,
Speaker 2: they said that, well, you know, maybe we do our
Speaker 2: We are a little top heavy, so we'll reduce our
Speaker 2: workforce by about ten percent by twenty twenty seven. We're
Speaker 2: in the private sector. If you're having problems with you're
Speaker 2: losing money and you need to cut costs, how do
Speaker 2: you How can you wait two years before you make
Speaker 2: those adjustments? But the are reserve because who's overseeing them?
Speaker 2: And again Ron Paul and then Rand Paul now is
Speaker 2: calling for the picking up that mantra because Ron Paul retired,
Speaker 2: but Ran Paul has been calling for the audit of
Speaker 2: the FED. And yet these people just you know, people
Speaker 2: in Congress, Senate just say, you know, it's okay, it's
Speaker 2: the FED. You know, they're independent source, and we don't
Speaker 2: want to deal with that. Yet we saw the report
Speaker 2: what was it a couple months ago where the overruns
Speaker 2: they were doing the renovations they are now it was
Speaker 2: supposed to be I forget what the number was, but
Speaker 2: they're now twenty five to forty percent higher than what
Speaker 2: those estimates were to revamp and remodel the Federal Reserve
Speaker 2: building there in Washington. So they're they're not handling that,
Speaker 2: they can't control that. And yet they're talking about, well,
Speaker 2: we are blown. We're going to reduce our work staff
Speaker 2: by ten percent two years from now. So again, you know,
Speaker 2: twenty three thousand employees, what do they do? And nobody
Speaker 2: ever talks about the information and that they gat that
Speaker 2: out of the Federal Reserve. We get this data, we
Speaker 2: get this data, we get this data. They never go
Speaker 2: into detail of that. But yet the spoon feder regurgitators
Speaker 2: in the mainstream media when a headline comes up, boom,
Speaker 2: they repeat it like a bunch of parrots. It's just unbelievable.
Speaker 2: But the fact that Donald Trump has pulled the curtain
Speaker 2: back on these agencies and said, Okay, well, you know,
Speaker 2: they need to be more accurate in terms of the
Speaker 2: data that they give us. And if we're not getting
Speaker 2: the accurate data, the people that are in charge of
Speaker 2: that and Bureau of Labor Statistics or wherever are going
Speaker 2: to get canned. And we're going to get people in
Speaker 2: there that can get the accurate information and put the
Speaker 2: pressure on the FED. With twenty three thousand employees, what
Speaker 2: information are they providing and do they have too many employees?
Speaker 2: So the whole thing is just nuts. Let's see. At
Speaker 2: the same time, firma is hiring plans have receded sharply.
Speaker 2: New hirings totaled just two hundred and four thousand, almost
Speaker 2: two hundred five thousand so far in twenty twenty five,
Speaker 2: off fifty eight percent from the same period a year ago,
Speaker 2: and the lowest level since two thousand and nine. I
Speaker 2: keep harping on the fact that one of the things
Speaker 2: hold the main thing that's holding back our economy at
Speaker 2: this point is interest rates. The fact that interest rates
Speaker 2: are so high compared to the rest of the developed world.
Speaker 2: All the Western countries have that overnight rate that they
Speaker 2: charge the banks charge each other if they borrow money
Speaker 2: is around two percent. Here in the United States, it's
Speaker 2: between four and four point two percent to four point
Speaker 2: two five percent. So why aren't we down a full
Speaker 2: two percentage points lower? Because their unemployment rates are similar
Speaker 2: to ours, their inflation rates are similar to ours, why
Speaker 2: aren't our rates down the way they should be. The
Speaker 2: one main factor is lying Jerry Powell talking about, Oh,
Speaker 2: I'm worried about inflation. Well, you know when they look
Speaker 2: at the inflation and the inflation hasn't creeped up. They
Speaker 2: were saying that we were going to see five six
Speaker 2: seven percent inflation by the end of the year. What
Speaker 2: we're saying is around two point nine two point eight
Speaker 2: and thereabouts. So this inflation that they keep talking about
Speaker 2: just ain't happening. We'll pick this up and a little
Speaker 2: bit more coming up. I'm Kevin Bordon, America's truck in
Speaker 2: Network seven hundred WLW.
Speaker 7: News Traffic and Weather. News Radio seven hundred WLW Cincinnati New.
Speaker 8: Hope Tonight for a ceasefire in Gaza. With your twelve
Speaker 8: thirty report, I'm Travis Lair Breaking.
Speaker 2: Now.
Speaker 8: President Trump is pushing his peace plan as talks begin
Speaker 8: in Egypt. ABC News Chief Foreign correspondent Ian Panel reports
Speaker 8: from Tel Aviv.
Speaker 9: President Trump applying real pressure on promise to Nasaaho to
Speaker 9: agree to this deal, and it really does feel like
Speaker 9: a potentially game changing movement. You've got these indirect toalks
Speaker 9: now underway in Egypt. Egypt Phase one, the President hopes
Speaker 9: could be agreed as early as this week, would mean
Speaker 9: the ceasefi, the release of hostages and I'm Palestinian prisoners,
Speaker 9: and apostial.
Speaker 2: Withdrawal of his Radi troops.
Speaker 9: The key sticking point is going to be Phase two,
Speaker 9: which GOLs the hamass to disarm and relinquished power.
Speaker 7: Now, the ladies forecast from the Train Heating and Cooling
Speaker 7: Weather Center on News Radio seven hundred WLW.
Speaker 10: As we head to day break on Tuesday, we're going
Speaker 10: to see rain and a chance of storms, a morning
Speaker 10: low of sixty five.
Speaker 2: The morning rush will be slow.
Speaker 10: Throughout our Tuesday, We'll see rain and a chance of storms,
Speaker 10: a high at seventy three at night, showers early then
Speaker 10: ending a LOA fifty four from your severe weather station.
Speaker 10: I'm nine First Warning Chief Meteorologist Steve Rawley, News Radio
Speaker 10: seven hundred WLW.
Speaker 8: Right now sixty seven degrees in Cincinnati, and it looks
Speaker 8: like that break from the rain that I mentioned thirty
Speaker 8: minutes ago is about to end. Saint Elizabeth Healthcare is
Speaker 8: taking breast cancer screenings on the road this month. The
Speaker 8: hospital's mobile mimography van is making stops throughout the tri
Speaker 8: State during Breast Cancer Awareness Month, offering quick, low cost
Speaker 8: screenings for women who are forty and older. The entire
Speaker 8: process takes about fifteen minutes, and funding is available for
Speaker 8: those of without insurance.
Speaker 2: The St.
Speaker 8: Elizabeth officials say the van is designed to reach patients
Speaker 8: who might otherwise skip routine screenings because of time or
Speaker 8: travel barriers. Appointments can be made through Saint Elizabeth's My
Speaker 8: Chart portal or by calling the hospital directly. And Early
Speaker 8: voting for Ohio's November fourth general election begins on Tuesday.
Speaker 8: Voters can cast ballots in person at their county Board
Speaker 8: of Elections or by mail through absentee voting. Applications for
Speaker 8: mail in ballots are due October twenty eighth and polls
Speaker 8: will be open on election Day from six thirty am
Speaker 8: to seven thirty pm. Our next update is at one
Speaker 8: o'clock Breaking News anytime. I'm Travis Laird News Radio seven
Speaker 8: hundred WLW BURN.
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Speaker 12: Here's your trucking forecast for the Try State and the
Speaker 12: rest of the country. In the Try State of for
Speaker 12: night showers, impossible storms, the low down to fifty six,
Speaker 12: a cold front Tuesday brings more showers and possible storms,
Speaker 12: a high of seventy four Sunday, and cooler Wednesday, a
Speaker 12: high of sixty eight, more sunshine Thursday, and continuing to
Speaker 12: feel more fall like highs again in the upper sixties
Speaker 12: Nationally through Tuesday morning. There's a slight risk of assessive
Speaker 12: rainfall for parts of the Ohio Valley as well as
Speaker 12: the Middle and lower Mississippi Valleys. The Ohio Valley will
Speaker 12: continue to see that risk throughout the day Tuesday as
Speaker 12: well as in the Central Appalachians.
Speaker 2: Seven hundred and WLW. I'm Kevin Gordon. This is America's
Speaker 2: truck in Network. America's trucking networks support submission Rees across America.
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Speaker 2: America's Trucking Network. Of course, sponsored by our friends at
Speaker 2: Rush Truck Center. Government shutdown threatens key economic data. And
Speaker 2: now this was the thing that was referenced in the
Speaker 2: previous story, and I just kind of skimmed through this
Speaker 2: because there's now there's it's interesting the way they couched
Speaker 2: US Again. This was Uh, this came at the end
Speaker 2: of last week, right before the government shutdown and everything.
Speaker 2: And they're talking about Given uncertainty about the impact that
Speaker 2: Donald Trump's policies are having on the US economy, federal
Speaker 2: gauges of employment, inflation, and spending are all the more important.
Speaker 2: Any postponement could hamper key policy decision, such as whether
Speaker 2: the Federal Reserve should cut interest rates again when it
Speaker 2: meets next month. Again, I rely on what I said before.
Speaker 2: Doesn't the Federal Reserve have this data? Can't they dig
Speaker 2: some of the data out themselves and come up with
Speaker 2: their own information. Can't they rely on some of these
Speaker 2: other sources, some of these other companies out there, that
Speaker 2: that's their job to produce this economic data in order
Speaker 2: for them to be an advisory position to their clients,
Speaker 2: or if they're doing if they're in the hiring business
Speaker 2: where they're doing the outplacement, or if they're doing the
Speaker 2: hiring the interviews for these other companies the recruitment, wouldn't
Speaker 2: they have a much better feel for what these numbers are.
Speaker 2: But of course this is what organization of this. I
Speaker 2: think it's an associated press. Of course, we're not going
Speaker 2: to get and balanced coverage from them. But I thought
Speaker 2: that was an interesting opening paragraph given uncertainty about the
Speaker 2: impact that President Donald Trump's policies are having on the
Speaker 2: US economy. All right, now, this is the same phrase
Speaker 2: that's been used since January, the uncertainty of Trump economic policies.
Speaker 2: So wouldn't you think that by what now, the first
Speaker 2: week of October, that if something was so dire, that
Speaker 2: maybe it would have happened in January or February, March,
Speaker 2: how about July, how about September? But we're into October now,
Speaker 2: and none of it has surfaced that these so called
Speaker 2: economists have been claiming that is going to happen. So
Speaker 2: why do they keep beating this drum? I mean, they're
Speaker 2: starting to look like a bunch of fools. Gregory Daco,
Speaker 2: chief Economists at E. E. Y Parthenon, You don't want
Speaker 2: to be flying blind in a foggy environment. Now, if
Speaker 2: you're an investment strategist at Chief Economy US at this organization,
Speaker 2: wouldn't you think that with your clients, with the people
Speaker 2: that you talk about on a regular basis, that you
Speaker 2: would have some information about this. But I guess that's
Speaker 2: asking too much further on, they start talking about the
Speaker 2: different economic data that is going to be delayed as
Speaker 2: a result of this government shutdown. Now, we've already seen
Speaker 2: that the initial job of claims from last week didn't
Speaker 2: come out on Thursday. Possible that they're not going to
Speaker 2: come out this next Thursday or the Thursday after monthly
Speaker 2: jobs report we're due on October third, Trade balance October
Speaker 2: the seventh, consumer price index on the fifteenth, retail sales
Speaker 2: on the sixteenth, and producer price index on October sixteenth.
Speaker 2: These may all be delayed. Department of Labor, which oversees BLS,
Speaker 2: released updated guidelines that confirm the statistical agency would suspend
Speaker 2: all operations and seize data collection during the lapse during
Speaker 2: the appropriations. Now, again, these are all based on surveys.
Speaker 2: I would think that in the twenty first century that
Speaker 2: we would have better data collection than just sending out
Speaker 2: a survey and hoping that people send that back in.
Speaker 2: Wouldn't you think that they'd have some sort of a
Speaker 2: better gauge at being able to get this information or
Speaker 2: make the survey easier for these companies to fill out,
Speaker 2: so that they'd be more likely to fill it out
Speaker 2: or delay it again, that's why we have these revisions.
Speaker 2: You come out with the data that's supposed to be
Speaker 2: on a date certain than the following month. They adjust
Speaker 2: that based on more data that they get in, and
Speaker 2: then beyond that they have more data that comes in.
Speaker 2: So getting a streamlined situation where it's better for these
Speaker 2: companies to release this information and get it to the
Speaker 2: Bureau of Labor Statistics, I think that would be a
Speaker 2: pretty good idea. BLS has to delay publication and the
Speaker 2: jobs Report and CPI when the government was shut down
Speaker 2: in twenty thirteen. There was a shutdown more recently in
Speaker 2: twenty eighteen twenty nineteen, but prior funding ensured that BLS
Speaker 2: would release major data. And again, if this continuing resolution
Speaker 2: had been put in place, or been allowed to be
Speaker 2: put in break place by Chuck Schumer, this Schumer shutdown
Speaker 2: wouldn't be a problem right now. Let's see Stephen Sanley,
Speaker 2: chief US economists at sand tandor US Capital Markets the
Speaker 2: Fed's next meeting October the twenty eighth and twenty ninth,
Speaker 2: and be harder to justify another interest rate cut without
Speaker 2: having the latest government data. Also said, there's private data
Speaker 2: the federal officials can canvas their contacts and at least
Speaker 2: get a sense of what's going on. But it does
Speaker 2: get tougher if you don't have the big aggregate data
Speaker 2: that we tend to depend on. Again, Wired did him
Speaker 2: on that? And why is this so antiquated and so
Speaker 2: out of date? There's got to be a better way. Now.
Speaker 2: What's interesting is they were talking about the government shutdown.
Speaker 2: And what's interesting you can go back to Ronald Reagan.
Speaker 2: During Ronald Reagan's time in office from nineteen eighty to
Speaker 2: nineteen eighty eight, there was one, two, three, four, five, six, seven,
Speaker 2: eight government shutdowns. Interesting that it's during a Republican presidency.
Speaker 2: George H. W. Bush one shutdown, Bill Clinton two shutdowns.
Speaker 2: Barack Obama won Donald Trump in twenty eighteen, and then
Speaker 2: twenty nineteen there were two government shutdowns. Why is it
Speaker 2: that when Republicans are in office, the Democrats decide that
Speaker 2: they're going to shut down the government. Bill Clinton the
Speaker 2: longest one so far. Well, actually up till twenty eighteen,
Speaker 2: twenty nineteen, the government was shut down for twenty one days.
Speaker 2: During the first Trump term, that was shut down by
Speaker 2: for thirty five days. And it appears as though that
Speaker 2: the I don't know. There's talks and whether or not
Speaker 2: they're going to make some sort of an agreement and
Speaker 2: get the government back open, we don't know. But there
Speaker 2: seems to be still some hesitancy on the part of
Speaker 2: Chucky Schumer and the boys to get this done. Seems
Speaker 2: that they like messing up the economy. They don't care
Speaker 2: about the American economy. They don't care about you and me.
Speaker 2: They just care about their power and they feel it
Speaker 2: slipping away. According to ADP last week, and this was
Speaker 2: some dice the information, they indicated the firms shed thirty
Speaker 2: two thousand jobs in September. According to the ADP, payrolls
Speaker 2: in US companies unexpectedly dropped in September due to, at
Speaker 2: least in part two, issues with data analysis. So again
Speaker 2: they're having problems with their data analogy. They don't explain why,
Speaker 2: but with the data analysis that they use, it appears
Speaker 2: as though they use some of the data from the
Speaker 2: federal government, but then they use the data that they
Speaker 2: have on hand because they process payrolls for a bunch
Speaker 2: of company and so with this data analysis lacking, they
Speaker 2: put out a report that says, well, here's what we
Speaker 2: think happened, but we don't know that this is what happened.
Speaker 2: Private sector payrolls decreased by thirty two thousand after revised
Speaker 2: three thousand declined a month earlier. According to ADP, the
Speaker 2: figure was below all estimates in the Bloomberg Survey of economists.
Speaker 2: Now Bloomberg can go out and survey economists, which again
Speaker 2: they're surveying economists, which apparently they don't have their finger
Speaker 2: on the pulls because their numbers are always wrong, but
Speaker 2: they keep reporting them anyway. ADP noted that their benchmark
Speaker 2: their data based on expansive series from the Bureau of
Speaker 2: Labor Statistics called the Quarterly Sense of of Employment and Wages.
Speaker 2: The recalibration resulted in a reduction of forty three thousand
Speaker 2: jobs in September compared to the benchmark data, indicating that
Speaker 2: if it was thirty two thousand and they were expecting
Speaker 2: thirty three thousand, that there was a slight uptick in
Speaker 2: that period as opposed to a decline. And so again
Speaker 2: a lot of these numbers are in flux because the
Speaker 2: federal government is shut down and they're relying on data,
Speaker 2: that is, they are collecting and assuming what would have
Speaker 2: been collected by the federal government. Coming up, we'll talking
Speaker 2: a little bit more about this and some other mischief.
Speaker 2: I'm Kevin Gordon, America's truck a Network seven hundred WLW.
Speaker 10: Run a business and not thinking about podcasting.
Speaker 2: This is america'structing Network, seven hundred WLW and I'm Kevin Gordon.
Speaker 2: By the way, Going back to this ADP report and
Speaker 2: what they reported last week, it's interesting that they break
Speaker 2: this down and this quote, and this is Nila Richardson,
Speaker 2: she's the chief economist at ADP. Despite the strong economic
Speaker 2: growth we saw on the second quarter, Wait a minute,
Speaker 2: I didn't think we were supposed to see economic growth
Speaker 2: this year because of the tariffs and the economic policies,
Speaker 2: the uncertainty of the Trump administration and so on. So
Speaker 2: you know, apparently it didn't happen, and of course they're
Speaker 2: still waiting for it. Nila Richardson, chief economist's ADP. Despite
Speaker 2: the strong economic growth we saw in the second quarter,
Speaker 2: this month's release further validates what we've been seeing in
Speaker 2: the labor market that US employers have been cautious with hiring.
Speaker 2: Really captain obvious the fact that companies are holding back.
Speaker 2: They say they're holding back because they're not sure of
Speaker 2: whether they can expand or not. And if you're expanding,
Speaker 2: then you are going to hire more employees. You are
Speaker 2: going to add on to your building or hire new employees,
Speaker 2: or you're going to add machinery equipment. In the truck industry,
Speaker 2: you're going to be adding trucks to your fleet, or
Speaker 2: if you're an owner operator, you're going to buy a
Speaker 2: new truck or maybe another truck because your business is
Speaker 2: that strong, or all these things. In the housing market,
Speaker 2: people are holding back. They're not jumping into the housing
Speaker 2: market the way they should. And what is based on
Speaker 2: all that all this stuff that we're talking about, expansion
Speaker 2: of businesses, buying equipment, buying trucks, building additions onto businesses,
Speaker 2: it requires financing. And what is the financing. It's based
Speaker 2: on interest and if interest rates are too high, these
Speaker 2: companies are not going to expand they're not going to
Speaker 2: expand just for the sake of expanding. Companies are hanging
Speaker 2: on to their employees more after what they saw during
Speaker 2: the pandemic when they shut their business or were forced
Speaker 2: to shut their businesses down, and when they went back
Speaker 2: to the rehiring effort trying to get the qualified people
Speaker 2: back in, and yet we saw that anybody that went
Speaker 2: out to any kind of any kind of a store
Speaker 2: that you couldn't find a sales clerk. Some of the
Speaker 2: restaurants they were shorthanded on wait staff. And one of
Speaker 2: the restaurants we went to my wife and I right, no,
Speaker 2: probably about a month after the plandemic and people were
Speaker 2: able to get out and about and start going out
Speaker 2: to restaurants. Some of it they mentioned, hey, you know,
Speaker 2: our kitchens a little slow. We had to hire somebody
Speaker 2: who's never cooked before, and so they're looking at the
Speaker 2: recipes and going, okay, I had this, and I had that,
Speaker 2: and I had that. So the kitchen was really slow.
Speaker 2: And they were explaining that upfront, the fact that once
Speaker 2: they get once you lay off these employees, it's very
Speaker 2: difficult to hire them back. Either a lot of them
Speaker 2: stayed on the unemployment because they were making more unemployment
Speaker 2: than they would on the job, or they took another
Speaker 2: job somewhere else when people started hiring, and they went
Speaker 2: there instead of back to their previous employer. So they
Speaker 2: saw that what happened during the pandemic, and afterwards they said, well,
Speaker 2: we're not going to go through that. Again, We're going
Speaker 2: to hang on to our employees as long as we can.
Speaker 2: So that's why you're not seeing massive layoffs. That's why
Speaker 2: you're not seeing any hiring because again people are being
Speaker 2: forced to stall whatever expansion they're doing because of interest rates.
Speaker 2: How they talk about here and again this is going
Speaker 2: back to the ADP report. Payrolls declined in industries such
Speaker 2: as leisure and hospitality, business services, and financial activities, as
Speaker 2: well as goods producing sectors like construction and manufacturing. Education
Speaker 2: and health services was one of the areas to add
Speaker 2: a headcount. Well, you would expect that in September based
Speaker 2: on back to school that people would be going back
Speaker 2: to work at these schools. Midwest was the only major
Speaker 2: US region that shed jobs, and the clients were concentrated
Speaker 2: in businesses were less than five hundred employees. ADP bases
Speaker 2: its findings on payrolls covering more than twenty six million
Speaker 2: US sector employees in their Labor Report. These are workers
Speaker 2: who changed jobs saw a six point six percent increase
Speaker 2: in pay, the lowest in a year. Those who stayed
Speaker 2: on the job saw four point five percent increase. So again,
Speaker 2: staying on the job or moving or switching jobs. Really
Speaker 2: isn't some of the advantages that it had been in
Speaker 2: the past. Looking at another area which is interesting, Use
Speaker 2: truck sales increase for the third straight month in August.
Speaker 2: Use Class eight truck sales increase year over year for
Speaker 2: the third consecutive month in August, according to ACT Research Now.
Speaker 2: ACT Research stands for America's commercial transportation research company. They
Speaker 2: reported a rise of three point five percent from the
Speaker 2: twenty twenty four period. Months to month, the results were
Speaker 2: flat compared to July numbers. The average retail sale decreased
Speaker 2: by point eight percent in the prior year period and
Speaker 2: slipped seven point one percent sequentially from the previous month.
Speaker 2: Average mileage dropped by half a percentage point. That too,
Speaker 2: was flat for the prior compared to the previous month.
Speaker 2: ACT Research Vice president Steve Tam said the eleven percent
Speaker 2: month to month gain was better than expected on a
Speaker 2: seasonally adjusted basis. The auction market turned in a respectable
Speaker 2: performance that was countered to the expected decline, so they
Speaker 2: expected sales to decline but unexpectedly increase. Auction volumes floated
Speaker 2: three point four percent higher, and so on. They go
Speaker 2: through the statistics let me see Act research also found
Speaker 2: that same dealer used retail sales increased for the first
Speaker 2: time in five months. Tam pointed out that it's typically
Speaker 2: the second best sales month of the year, usually running
Speaker 2: more than eight percent above average. They go on to
Speaker 2: talk a little bit about more about even though the
Speaker 2: summer does not officially end until late September, of course
Speaker 2: their reporting period in the first couple of months or
Speaker 2: first couple of weeks of October, you're still gathering that data.
Speaker 2: So that's not all there together right now. Clearly, August
Speaker 2: did not disappoint this year, at least from a unit
Speaker 2: volume perspective. Industry participants should interpret this as a positive sign.
Speaker 2: JD Power noted in a report that pricing decreased at
Speaker 2: the auction and retail channels during August. The report also
Speaker 2: showed that retail sales volume continues to trend higher when
Speaker 2: compared with prior year. Again, if you're looking to add trucks,
Speaker 2: if you're adding trucks to your fleet, do you go
Speaker 2: out and do you buy a brand new truck or
Speaker 2: do you buy a used truck which is a little
Speaker 2: bit less or a lot less than what a brand
Speaker 2: new truck would be because you want to get somewhat
Speaker 2: of a late model truck in order to keep your
Speaker 2: fleet going. And of course, if you're not keeping your
Speaker 2: fleet up to date, you're going to see rising maintenance costs,
Speaker 2: which means that that truck's going to be off the
Speaker 2: road a lot more frequently, and the trucks in the
Speaker 2: shop it ain't producing revenue. So a lot of this
Speaker 2: is good news. Let's take a quick look at the
Speaker 2: oil and gas before we have to get out of here.
Speaker 2: Oil and well, actually, oil prices have jumped up a
Speaker 2: little bit higher today. West Texas intermediate crude currently is
Speaker 2: sixty one dollars and sixty nine cents a barrel. That's
Speaker 2: up eighty one cents or one point three to three percent.
Speaker 2: Brent crude currently sixty five dollars and forty six cents.
Speaker 2: That's up almost a dollar as well, one point four
Speaker 2: to four percent. Now, just since January, since Donald Trump
Speaker 2: took office, West Texas intermediate crud is down fifteen dollars
Speaker 2: and twenty cents a barrel, or twenty percent. Brent crude
Speaker 2: is down fourteen dollars and forty four cents or eight
Speaker 2: eighteen percent. Down just since January, So that's good on
Speaker 2: that department. Looking at current average nationwide average of gasoline,
Speaker 2: current national average is three dollars and thirteen cents a
Speaker 2: gallon compared to and diesel is currently at three dollars
Speaker 2: and sixty eight cents. Now, when you go back to
Speaker 2: a year ago, we are not much changed from a
Speaker 2: year ago. And with oil prices being down twenty percent
Speaker 2: and eighteen percent, respectively, I would have expected, I do expect,
Speaker 2: and I don't understand what gas prices aren't comparably down
Speaker 2: about ten or fifteen percent below than what they are. Again,
Speaker 2: if oil prices are down, that goes into the refinery
Speaker 2: it's being refined. The lower cost going in should equal
Speaker 2: to the lower costs coming out. But we keep hearing
Speaker 2: that all the retooling, that some of these refineries are
Speaker 2: closed for maintenance, or you've got the summer blend, or
Speaker 2: you've got this, that or the other excuse, Whereas it
Speaker 2: appears to me that something is not pushing these prices down. Again,
Speaker 2: if you compare these prices back to twenty twenty, when
Speaker 2: we were energy independent for the first time since nineteen
Speaker 2: forty nine, gasoline was at two dollars and twenty six cents,
Speaker 2: so we were thirty eight percent higher now than we
Speaker 2: were back then. You shave off another fifteen percent from
Speaker 2: that number up above, and we get closer to those numbers.
Speaker 2: So that would be a good thing if that would
Speaker 2: start transferring what oil prices are to the retail sector.
Speaker 2: So again a lot going on. Now. What is going
Speaker 2: on right now is that oil price is increasing a
Speaker 2: little bit because over the weekend OPEC had their meeting
Speaker 2: and they decided that they were going to continue their
Speaker 2: increased output, but it was only going to be one
Speaker 2: hundred and thirty seven thousand barrels per day. However, if
Speaker 2: you compare that back to where they were at the
Speaker 2: beginning of the year, they have increased their volume by
Speaker 2: two point five million barrels per day from what they
Speaker 2: were last year. And you would think that that would
Speaker 2: present a little bit of a glut in the oil markets,
Speaker 2: but that has been eaten up by the increased activity
Speaker 2: and increased usage. So the volumes of the increase in
Speaker 2: oil production, but the inventories aren't going up because the
Speaker 2: economy is strong and people are out driving and using
Speaker 2: that oil so again and buying up that guess well, folks,
Speaker 2: that does it for us. Stay tuned for EDI Radio
Speaker 2: Top of the Hour. I'm Kevin Gordon, America's Trucking Network
Speaker 2: seven hundred WLW News, Traffic and Weather.
Speaker 7: News Radio seven hundred WLW, Cincinnati.
Speaker 8: A new round of US broker talks is underway in
Speaker 8: Egypt on President Trump's plan to end the war in Gaza.
Speaker 2: With your Top of the Hour