Speaker 1: This is America's Trucking Network with Kevin Gordon, well of
Speaker 1: them more. Thanks for tuning in on this Wednesday morning.
Speaker 1: Last Friday, we got the one of my favorite surveys.
Speaker 1: I just flat out say that every month, it seems
Speaker 1: that this consumer sentiment report that comes out by the
Speaker 1: University of Michigan, this is the thing that a lot
Speaker 1: of the well the spoon fed regurgitators in the mainstream
Speaker 1: media kind of tend to glom onto because it's one
Speaker 1: of these well respected type of surveys that's done by
Speaker 1: the University of Michigan taking a look at consumer sentiment.
Speaker 1: Now this is done based on a survey, and a
Speaker 1: month after month, I bring this up and I talk
Speaker 1: about it simply because this is the stuff that the
Speaker 1: spoon fed regurgitators in the mainstream media talk about. Let's say,
Speaker 1: consumer sentiment went down and all this sort of stuff.
Speaker 1: So they put all these negative figures and these negative
Speaker 1: thoughts into people's head. And I've explained this numerous times
Speaker 1: that as I look out at the economy and I
Speaker 1: look at at what's going on, knowing the resilience of
Speaker 1: the American public, knowing the resilience of the individuals who
Speaker 1: own businesses, knowing the resilience of people like you out
Speaker 1: in the trucking industry that you guys can get through anything.
Speaker 1: All you got to know is what rules are we
Speaker 1: playing by. We can handle just about anything. We are
Speaker 1: rugged individualists in this country. We are the type of
Speaker 1: people we are. You compare us to any other people
Speaker 1: in the world, and we work harder, we work longer.
Speaker 1: Well maybe with the exception of the Japanese, but that's
Speaker 1: a whole nother story altogether. And they have their problems
Speaker 1: over there as well, some of the mental illness and
Speaker 1: stuff that's creeping up there because they have had this
Speaker 1: constant work, work, work, work, work ethics. Now you go
Speaker 1: that to a further extreme. You look at the European
Speaker 1: Union and how that will take a month off just
Speaker 1: to I guess, just to relax, even though they don't
Speaker 1: do much to begin with. So anyway, we are a
Speaker 1: very resilient people and we can get through just about anything.
Speaker 1: And as I said, all we need to know is
Speaker 1: what the rules are. And once in a while, we'd
Speaker 1: like to get a little cooperation from our government, which
Speaker 1: we are getting, and we would like a little cooperation
Speaker 1: from the Federal Reserve that we're not getting. And I
Speaker 1: keep harping on the idea or the fact that our
Speaker 1: interest rates are two damn high. If you're trying to
Speaker 1: stimulate the economy, if you want things to go along,
Speaker 1: if you want people to have more money in their
Speaker 1: pockets so they can go out and spend more, And
Speaker 1: you look at the numbers. Our unemployment is low, wages
Speaker 1: are coming up, Inflation is moderate in terms of where
Speaker 1: it is, and we'll talk about that coming up. And
Speaker 1: things are on the surface all looking pretty good. Problem
Speaker 1: is is that when you look at the interest rates
Speaker 1: and what people think of in terms of well their
Speaker 1: credit cards are concerned going out and try to buy
Speaker 1: a piece of equipment, try to buy a new truck,
Speaker 1: try to add fleets of trucks to your fleet, young
Speaker 1: people trying to buy a house. All that stuff factors
Speaker 1: into it. But what we're constantly getting is the drum
Speaker 1: beat from the spoon fed regurgitators in the mainstream media.
Speaker 1: They from day one have been trying to talk down
Speaker 1: this economy and trying to manufacture, in my opinion, a recession.
Speaker 1: They've talked about how horrible the tariffs are going to be,
Speaker 1: it's going to cause inflation, it's going to run into
Speaker 1: a recession, and things are going to go to hell
Speaker 1: in a handbasket, none of which has happened. And as
Speaker 1: a matter of fact, things have gone extremely well. And
Speaker 1: so we when we look at the inflation numbers, which
Speaker 1: we'll look at later on, as I mentioned, these are
Speaker 1: the things that are there. But yet we've got the
Speaker 1: spoon fed regurgitators in the mainstream media constantly talking down
Speaker 1: the economy, talking about high inflation, talking about this, that
Speaker 1: and the other thing. And when you go out you
Speaker 1: serve a people on the street, we don't know. When
Speaker 1: the survey, they never explain what the percentage of Republicans, Democrats, independents,
Speaker 1: the demographics, in terms of the ages, in terms of
Speaker 1: the population, and any of that. All they do is
Speaker 1: put out this survey. But it's one that people glom
Speaker 1: onto and talk about a lot. So let's go through this.
Speaker 1: The number of Americans, the numbers of the numbers, that's
Speaker 1: the title. Americans have soured on the prospect of finding
Speaker 1: new jobs. A new survey shows, well, that's all well
Speaker 1: and good if you're not working, but unemployment is low,
Speaker 1: so there's not that many people out there working, people
Speaker 1: that have a job. Okay, if you're looking for another job,
Speaker 1: if you're thinking of job hopping, that prospects might not
Speaker 1: be so good. But at least you've got a job
Speaker 1: and you've got a paycheck coming in. And they're still
Speaker 1: frustrated by persistent inflation. Oh really, we'll talk about that
Speaker 1: in a minute, giving them little confidence that the economy
Speaker 1: will improve soon. Well, the economy is pretty darn good
Speaker 1: compared to what it was back in the Biden administration,
Speaker 1: and when we look at energy prices, when we look
Speaker 1: at what is going on as far as food prices,
Speaker 1: and the prospects for economic prosperity. The first reading of
Speaker 1: the Consumer Sentiment Survey in October was basically flat at
Speaker 1: fifty five. According to the University of Michigan set on Friday,
Speaker 1: the index has been hovering at levels typically experienced during recessions. Gee, you,
Speaker 1: I wonder why if you've got this constant drumbeat of
Speaker 1: negativity talking about the economy, ninety four percent negative coverage,
Speaker 1: ninety four ninety five percent negative coverage of Donald Trump.
Speaker 1: Of course people are going to have in their head
Speaker 1: or they're they're going to be having a bad taste
Speaker 1: in their mouth or affect their attitude. And so when
Speaker 1: you survey people like that, after this constant drumbeat of
Speaker 1: bad reporting, people are going to react that way. Consumer
Speaker 1: sentiment helps gauge how Americans feel about their own finances
Speaker 1: as well as the broader economy. That's an important feature
Speaker 1: right there. People are looking at their own finances. Things
Speaker 1: seem to be going well on their end, but they're
Speaker 1: worried about other people out there that what they're hearing
Speaker 1: as far as the economy is concerned. When you are
Speaker 1: hearing this concant drum beat as far as the economy,
Speaker 1: the teriffts are going to cause recession, inflation, and so on,
Speaker 1: you're not seeing it, but you're constantly hearing about it,
Speaker 1: and you're thinking, well, Geeve, maybe I'm not affected, but
Speaker 1: maybe everybody else is, and so that affects your viewpoint.
Speaker 1: Got to get into the key details here. Consumers expected
Speaker 1: the rate of inflation to rise by four point seven
Speaker 1: percent in the next year, indicating that they see little
Speaker 1: chance of a slow down in price increases, which is
Speaker 1: absolutely ridiculous because how are you going to predict what
Speaker 1: the inflation is going to be based on what you're
Speaker 1: hearing or what you're knowing. All you do is you're
Speaker 1: basing that on what you're hearing from the spoon fed
Speaker 1: regurgitators in the mainstream media. I wonder what the I'm
Speaker 1: going to have to go back and dig into some
Speaker 1: of these surveys and think what these people were looking
Speaker 1: at in terms of prediction when in a particular month
Speaker 1: of June of twenty twenty two, inflation hit nine percent.
Speaker 1: I wonder what the consumer sentiment at that point and
Speaker 1: what they forecasted inflation to be. You know, I'm not
Speaker 1: sure that they really even understand what the percentage of
Speaker 1: as far as inflation is. They probably don't even know
Speaker 1: what the current rate of inflation is. Now. Current rate
Speaker 1: of inflation is two point nine percent based on the
Speaker 1: Consumer Price Index. Most economists and Federal Reserve officials expect
Speaker 1: inflation to top three percent by the end of the year.
Speaker 1: So if the so called experts are expecting a three percent,
Speaker 1: where are these people getting this four point seven percent.
Speaker 1: It's got to be this constant drumbeat from the spoon
Speaker 1: federal gurgitators in the mainstream media. According to the director
Speaker 1: Joanne Sue Interviews reveal little evidence that the ongoing federal
Speaker 1: government shut down has moved consumer's view of the economy
Speaker 1: so far. They say in the survey that again that
Speaker 1: the government's shut down meanwhile has not registered much at
Speaker 1: all with the American people. Sentiment remains well below a
Speaker 1: pre pandemic high of one pH one. So at fifty
Speaker 1: five we are well below that one oh one, suggesting
Speaker 1: US economy is unlikely to speed up anytime soon. Well,
Speaker 1: of course, if you've got high interest rates and you've
Speaker 1: got the federal reserve of tamping down on the economy,
Speaker 1: their foot on the break, so to speak, you're not
Speaker 1: going to have that high US tariffs and constant disputes
Speaker 1: over trade have weakened the labor market and broader economy
Speaker 1: this year. Where's the evidence of that? How have tariffs
Speaker 1: increased or decreased the amount of things that people are buying?
Speaker 1: That it's not certainly causing inflation, it's not creating a
Speaker 1: problem as far as possibly job prospects or people expanding
Speaker 1: job or hiring new But we're in this position where
Speaker 1: companies are not hiring and they're not firing, which is
Speaker 1: a good thing, and acceleration and growth is not expected
Speaker 1: until next year, assuming the Trump administration finally settles on
Speaker 1: trade levels. I mean no, not the Trump administration settling
Speaker 1: on trade levels, the rest of the cut, the rest
Speaker 1: of the world accepting the fact that their tariffs are
Speaker 1: too damn highs and ours are too low, and we're
Speaker 1: trying to level the playing field. FED cuts will depend
Speaker 1: on whether inflation actually begins to slow down again. If
Speaker 1: it doesn't, the economy would face rockier times. But again,
Speaker 1: the Federal Reserve has shown that they will claim they're
Speaker 1: paying attention to the inflation. But like they did in
Speaker 1: September of twenty twenty four, when they're trying to get
Speaker 1: Kamala Harris elected, they said, oh, we're going to concentrate
Speaker 1: on jobs. We think the job market is low, so
Speaker 1: we're going to cut interest rates a full half a
Speaker 1: percentage point, trying to push her over the finish line.
Speaker 1: That didn't work, Thank goodness. We'll pick this up. I'm
Speaker 1: Kevin Gordon. America's Struck A Network seven hundred w L
Speaker 1: I'm Kevin Lord in America, Struck A Network seven hundred WLW.
Speaker 1: We talked about this Michigan survey, and it's a survey
Speaker 1: that's done every month. They do it at the beginning of
Speaker 1: the month, and they do it at the end of the
Speaker 1: month in terms of consumer sentiment. And again, everybody glombs
Speaker 1: onto it. Everybody pays attention to it. It's in the
Speaker 1: news and all that. So we got to talk about
Speaker 1: it here. But what I want to do is pull
Speaker 1: it apart, pick it apart, digest it, go through it,
Speaker 1: and basically dissect it and say, Okay, what are the
Speaker 1: facts in here? What's true and what's not true. We
Speaker 1: keep hearing about inflation. Okay, let's talk about inflation. Want
Speaker 1: to all right? We keep hearing that inflation is high
Speaker 1: that I saw a report the other day that they said, well,
Speaker 1: you know, we expect inflation to be higher than last year. Okay,
Speaker 1: Well they just left it at that, But until you
Speaker 1: read the sentence. Last year inflation was our last year
Speaker 1: of the Biden administration, was two point nine. They're saying
Speaker 1: that this year they're expecting inflation to be two point
Speaker 1: nine two, So two tenths of a percentage point above
Speaker 1: two point nine. So inflation is going to be higher
Speaker 1: this year. Yeah, but you leave the impression that, oh,
Speaker 1: higher means to me that it's going to be like
Speaker 1: one two percentage point different. Let's do a little bit
Speaker 1: of comparison, if you will. First full month of the
Speaker 1: Trump administration, February inflation was a two point eight percent.
Speaker 1: The previous year it was three point two percent. We
Speaker 1: were down four tenths of one percentage point. In March.
Speaker 1: We were down one point one percent in terms of inflation.
Speaker 1: Inflation in twenty twenty four was three point five two
Speaker 1: point four in March. Inflation in April three point four
Speaker 1: versus two point three, so that was down one point
Speaker 1: one May it was down nine tenths of one percent
Speaker 1: three point three in twenty twenty four, two point four
Speaker 1: percent in May. So where are we getting anywhere near
Speaker 1: the inflation numbers from twenty twenty four at this point?
Speaker 1: All right? June two point seven percent was down two
Speaker 1: point seven percent, was down zero point two percent from
Speaker 1: the two point nine to twenty twenty four. The one
Speaker 1: month this entire year that our inflation has been higher
Speaker 1: than the previous year was in August, when inflation was
Speaker 1: a two point nine percent and the previous year was
Speaker 1: a two point five percent. So we're still at that
Speaker 1: range where it has never gone above three percent during
Speaker 1: the entire time that Trump has been president, inflation has
Speaker 1: been two point eight two point four, two point three
Speaker 1: two point four every month. During twenty twenty four, inflation
Speaker 1: was over three percent. So where the hell are people
Speaker 1: concentrating on all of a sudden now their focus is
Speaker 1: on inflation when inflation isn't anywhere near what it was
Speaker 1: during the Biden administration. The first full year of the
Speaker 1: Biden administration in twenty twenty one, inflation was up seven percent.
Speaker 1: In twenty twenty two was up six point five percent,
Speaker 1: In twenty twenty three was three point four percent. Then
Speaker 1: we started hearing in twenty twenty four towards the end
Speaker 1: of twenty twenty four, is that, oh, well, the inflation
Speaker 1: rate in twenty twenty four is well below what it
Speaker 1: was in twenty twenty one and twenty twenty two coming
Speaker 1: out of the pandemic. Well, it was still a two
Speaker 1: point nine percent, even though the previous year it was
Speaker 1: three point four. So where was all the concern Back then?
Speaker 1: It seemed like nobody was talking about inflation. Maybe people
Speaker 1: like you and me were complaining about it, But the
Speaker 1: spoon fed regurgitators in the mainstream media, they apparently kept
Speaker 1: that news to themselves. They didn't bother harping on it,
Speaker 1: they didn't bother talking about it, they didn't talk about
Speaker 1: it NonStop in the news. But where is the evidence
Speaker 1: of this if you're talking about inflation and you're you know,
Speaker 1: we've seen the consumer price index, we've seen the consumer
Speaker 1: price index, producer price index, we've seen that personal consumption
Speaker 1: expenditure numbers all hovering around two point eight two point
Speaker 1: seven percent thereabouts. But then when you look at the
Speaker 1: wages in terms of the hourly rate and so on,
Speaker 1: that's been up four point one percent, three point five
Speaker 1: percent in those ranges. So the increases in wages are
Speaker 1: going up higher than the inflation. So again, I when
Speaker 1: they start talking about inflation, well, the numbers aren't proving that.
Speaker 1: And when you do the comparison month by month from
Speaker 1: the previous year, they're a heck of a lot lower
Speaker 1: now than what they were then. And you know, and
Speaker 1: when you look at and I've talked about this before
Speaker 1: and I keep talking about it, at least as far
Speaker 1: as grocery prices are concerned. Again, you're the main thing
Speaker 1: that you buy on a regular basis is groceries and energy.
Speaker 1: You look at gas prices, and gas price are coming down,
Speaker 1: they're at some of the lowest levels they've been in
Speaker 1: a couple of years. You look at food prices, you
Speaker 1: look at the grocery store and so on, and as
Speaker 1: far as what I've seen, if depending upon when you go,
Speaker 1: there are certain things it is a trend. You go
Speaker 1: into the grocery store, there are certain days there certain
Speaker 1: weeks where the lost leaders and the milk and stuff
Speaker 1: like that, they have that very low in order to
Speaker 1: encourage people to come into the store and buy stuff.
Speaker 1: But you go down aisle after aisle, I tell you you've
Speaker 1: got to look at the advertisements, because you'll notice that
Speaker 1: it's like every couple of weeks, certain items go on sale,
Speaker 1: then they go back up. Just last week, for instance,
Speaker 1: I buy Folger's coffee, Folger's black silk. It is normally
Speaker 1: on the shelf fourteen ninety nine. Last week they had
Speaker 1: it on sale for eight ninety nine. So if you're
Speaker 1: doing your inflation calculation based on the fourteen ninety nine
Speaker 1: versus the eight ninety nine, you're going to get a
Speaker 1: whole different type of perspective in terms of what inflation
Speaker 1: is as opposed to last year, a couple more weeks
Speaker 1: to go by, that coffee price is back up well
Speaker 1: right now, it's back up to fourteen ninety nine. It'll
Speaker 1: be up there probably this week, next week, and probably
Speaker 1: the following week it'll come back down to the eight
Speaker 1: ninety nine. You go down the aisle and you look
Speaker 1: at these things, and it's a trend when you look
Speaker 1: at those on a regular basis. But I know far
Speaker 1: too many people that just don't plan ahead. They just go.
Speaker 1: And you know, they always claim they're in a rush,
Speaker 1: they're in a rush, they're in a rush, they're in
Speaker 1: a rush. But then when you see what they do
Speaker 1: on a daily basis, how much time are they spending
Speaker 1: on their phone? How much time are they sitting there
Speaker 1: scrolling through stuff on pictures and stuff. I mean, my
Speaker 1: wife and I we talked about this periodically. I Mean,
Speaker 1: one of the things is that I pay attention to
Speaker 1: these commercials and so on, and there's a commercial where
Speaker 1: this woman is just sitting She's all decked down, she's
Speaker 1: got a little turtlenecks sweater on, and the people are
Speaker 1: running around in the house and all this sort of stuff,
Speaker 1: and she's sitting there very comfortably looking at her phone
Speaker 1: and scrolling through the phones. The little girl comes running
Speaker 1: by and she just kind of looks up and smiles
Speaker 1: and goes back to her phone. Doesn't pay attention to
Speaker 1: her family. She's not interacting with her family. Everybody else
Speaker 1: is doing stuff, but she's concentrated on her phone. Okay,
Speaker 1: So when you're concentrating on your phone like that, maybe
Speaker 1: you should be checking prices. Maybe you should be checking
Speaker 1: planning ahead in terms of what meals you're going to have,
Speaker 1: and then go out and buy the ingredients on that
Speaker 1: and make sure that you are paying attention to what
Speaker 1: is going on as far as the food prices are concerned,
Speaker 1: instead of constantly getting this I don't know this mind
Speaker 1: garbage of scrolling through and watching stupid videos and stuff
Speaker 1: like that. So again, again, I keep going. I talk
Speaker 1: about this a lot. I pay attention to grocery prices.
Speaker 1: I am one of the few men I know that
Speaker 1: enjoy grocery shopping. And I look at our bill, I
Speaker 1: look at what we're spending on groceries. And I'll say
Speaker 1: this again, I have, you know, looking at grocery prices
Speaker 1: and trying to save and trying to do certain things.
Speaker 1: I always wanted to try to get our grocery prices
Speaker 1: to where we're saving about one hundred bucks a month.
Speaker 1: We are now into the tenth month of the year,
Speaker 1: and we are already have saved so far for this
Speaker 1: year over seventeen I think it's like seventeen hundred and
Speaker 1: fifty dollars just the two of us. Now. Granted we're
Speaker 1: probably a family of three with the way I eat,
Speaker 1: but again, we have saved over seventeen hundred dollars just
Speaker 1: by It takes me fifteen twenty minutes a week to
Speaker 1: do a little bit of comparison shopping between you know,
Speaker 1: the stores that around us, and if I'm in that
Speaker 1: direction or if I'm in that area, I'll run and
Speaker 1: I'll pick up the thing that's on sale, or most
Speaker 1: of the time, I just go to our Kroger store
Speaker 1: which is right up the street, and pay attention to
Speaker 1: those prices and our grocery bills. I'm not noticing any
Speaker 1: major increase. In fact, I'm we're feeling more of a
Speaker 1: decrease in terms of prices when it comes to food.
Speaker 1: So when they start talking about and whining about, I mean,
Speaker 1: maybe if you're out buying refrigerators two and three a year.
Speaker 1: If you're buying a car twice a year, if you're
Speaker 1: buying a television three times a year, that's where you're
Speaker 1: seeing the inflation. But again this constant talk about inflation.
Speaker 1: Compare the numbers, get into the details, look at the numbers,
Speaker 1: and you'll find out that somebody's lying to you. And
Speaker 1: I guarantee you it ain't me. On America's Trucking Network,
Speaker 1: I'm Kevin Gordon, America's Trucking Network, seven hundred WLW.
Speaker 2: Here's your trucking forecast for the Try State and the
Speaker 2: rest of the country and the Try sit overnight clear skies,
Speaker 2: the low down to fifty one Sunday, Wednesday high of
Speaker 2: seventy two, more sunshine Thursday, the high year seventy partly
Speaker 2: sunny Friday a high of seventy one Nationally. Wednesday brings
Speaker 2: a continue marginal risk of excessive rainfall for New Mexico,
Speaker 2: while winter weather and mountains snow are likely in the
Speaker 2: northern Rockies. Meanwhile, the Southern Rockies and the es Central
Speaker 2: High Planes will see the isolated severe weather both Wednesday
Speaker 2: and Thursday.
Speaker 1: Seven hundred WLW. I'm Kevin Gordon, this is America struck a network.
Speaker 1: We missed any part of our program, we missed any
Speaker 1: of our shows? Hit up that iHeartRadio app. All of
Speaker 1: our shows are right there. And of course that's brought
Speaker 1: to you by our friends at Rush Truck Centers. And
Speaker 1: we certainly appreciate that Class eight truck sales orders slide
Speaker 1: forty four percent as to tariffs strain. Well, that headline
Speaker 1: sounds pretty bad, doesn't it. North American Class eight truck
Speaker 1: orders remained below prior year results as tariffs continued to
Speaker 1: squeeze and already stress transportation sector in September. These tariffs
Speaker 1: aren't supposed to go into effect until November. So how
Speaker 1: are they squeezing now? My question? Now, some of the
Speaker 1: components that have come over that are being added to
Speaker 1: the American made trucks. Yeah, but the terraffs on trucks
Speaker 1: being important haven't gone into effect yet. ACT Research preliminary
Speaker 1: data showed that orders decreased forty four percent year over year.
Speaker 1: So if you take our number from September of last
Speaker 1: year in September of this year, it's down forty four percent,
Speaker 1: but they increased fifty seven point six percent from the
Speaker 1: units reported in August. So this gets back to the
Speaker 1: thing that I've been talking about since the end of
Speaker 1: the pandemic. The pandemic kind of knocked things off its
Speaker 1: normal schedule. When you look at business trends and you've
Speaker 1: seen this in your trucking business, you know when your
Speaker 1: customers are going to need you to haul freight certain
Speaker 1: times of the year, slow times, low times, medium times,
Speaker 1: and so on. A lot of this has been knocked
Speaker 1: off as a result of the pandemic. Things that you
Speaker 1: would expect to seem in January don't happen till February.
Speaker 1: Things you expect to see in March are now happening
Speaker 1: in January. Worry, things that you expect to see in
Speaker 1: September may not happen till October, and July may happen
Speaker 1: in June. So all these things are there, and it's
Speaker 1: necessary to kind of look at these as kind of
Speaker 1: a sliding scale of over a three months trend or whatever.
Speaker 1: This kind of gets back to a comparison that like
Speaker 1: football coaches will do, they will break down a game,
Speaker 1: whether it be basketball, they'll break it into segments. They'll
Speaker 1: break it into basketball, college basketball games, or a half.
Speaker 1: So they'll break it into a half of the half,
Speaker 1: so a quarter football quarter, they talk about winning that
Speaker 1: eight minute period of time, winning that fifteen minute period
Speaker 1: of time, So you're not worrying about, Okay, the first minute,
Speaker 1: we're down by three points and then the next we're
Speaker 1: down by two and whatever. You're worried about winning that
Speaker 1: eight and eight minute segment. So it doesn't matter what
Speaker 1: happens at the first minute, second minute, third minute, as
Speaker 1: long as you were making progress and you wind up
Speaker 1: being ahead at the end of that eight minutes. Same thing.
Speaker 1: And like football, if you're winning every quarter, if you're
Speaker 1: winning that fifteen minute segment, the next fifteen minute segment,
Speaker 1: you're going to win the game. And so when you
Speaker 1: stretch these things out, Okay, January may not be what
Speaker 1: it was January last year. February may be better than
Speaker 1: it was last year. March may be about the same
Speaker 1: as it was last year. But you look at those
Speaker 1: three together and you're ahead from last year. And that's
Speaker 1: the thing that people need to concentrate on as opposed to, well,
Speaker 1: this month last year compared to last month is bad,
Speaker 1: But then when you compare it to the previous month,
Speaker 1: things are looking good. So this is the thing that
Speaker 1: kind of throws these three things off. On a six
Speaker 1: and twelve month basis, ors continue to trend down. So
Speaker 1: on the yearly basis they are down. And again I
Speaker 1: talk about what is causing this. Well, when you're talking
Speaker 1: about a eighteen, you know, a class eight truck, the
Speaker 1: tractor that you see hauling for people and not in
Speaker 1: the trucking industry, the cab that haulds that trailer, those
Speaker 1: sell for anywhere from one hundred and eighty thousand dollars
Speaker 1: to two hundred and twenty to two hundred and thirty
Speaker 1: thousand dollars. That's not a cheap piece of equipment. So
Speaker 1: if you're going to buy that, chances are you don't
Speaker 1: have two hundred and thirty thousand dollars laying around. So
Speaker 1: you're going to finance that. And what happens when you
Speaker 1: go to finance that, you've got to talk about interest rates.
Speaker 1: And if interest rates are too damn high, you're not
Speaker 1: going to buy that. If you're talking about doing that
Speaker 1: purchase over a five, six, seven, eight year period of time,
Speaker 1: and you're looking at a seven percent or a six
Speaker 1: percent interest rate versus a two percent interest rate, those
Speaker 1: payments are going to be astronomical. You're trying to go
Speaker 1: out and buy a truck for your company and for
Speaker 1: your individual operation. The fleets are out there trying to
Speaker 1: up their fleets, trying to increase their fleet and turn
Speaker 1: over their fleet about twenty five percent every year, so
Speaker 1: you take about a quarter of the trucks that you own,
Speaker 1: and you try to replace those every four years. When
Speaker 1: you have an interruption like the plandemic, when you had
Speaker 1: all the businesses shut down, you had all the manufacturing
Speaker 1: shut down, so you couldn't buy. Then then you go
Speaker 1: into the following year of twenty twenty one and you
Speaker 1: have supply chain issues and people aren't manufacturing as many
Speaker 1: vehicles as possible. Then all of a sudden, you get
Speaker 1: into twenty twenty two and you see these sales busting
Speaker 1: at the seams because people are trying to make up
Speaker 1: for the two previous years. So some of those vehicles
Speaker 1: that they purchased then are probably still outside that four
Speaker 1: year cycle, and so you're seeing maybe a little bit
Speaker 1: of a shift there where people aren't replacing. Plus there's
Speaker 1: been a lot of businesses like Yellow that went out
Speaker 1: of business. They up their fleet that one of the
Speaker 1: things that one of the reasons that they got there
Speaker 1: they got a loan. Wait a minute, let's back up
Speaker 1: a second. Back during the plandemic, Yellow Corporation got a
Speaker 1: huge loan from the federal government, about a seven hundred
Speaker 1: million dollar loan. They used that money to go out
Speaker 1: and replenish some of their trucks and build up their
Speaker 1: fleet because they were deemed to be an important component
Speaker 1: because a lot of their clients were the Navy bases,
Speaker 1: air Force military bases around the country, and to make
Speaker 1: sure that there was a supply of stuff during the
Speaker 1: pandemic of getting to those individual installations, they deemed it
Speaker 1: the importance of Yellow going into having those funds available
Speaker 1: in order to buy the trucks. Unfortunately, Yellow, with the
Speaker 1: problems that they had been having, they weren't able to
Speaker 1: solve those. They went out of business, but through the bankruptcy,
Speaker 1: selling off the vehicles that they had, auctioning those off,
Speaker 1: looking at the various locations that they had, the warehouses
Speaker 1: that they owned, the distribution centers that they owned, the
Speaker 1: sales of that real estate, the sale of that more
Speaker 1: than had enough money and paid back the federal loan
Speaker 1: plus interest. Far different than we had Solendra during Obama administration,
Speaker 1: where they got five hundred million dollars and paid not
Speaker 1: back one nickel he had. I forget the company that
Speaker 1: Biden administration lent money to went belly up, made some
Speaker 1: of the contributors very wealthy, or gave them a nice paycheck,
Speaker 1: but they went out of business, never recovered any money.
Speaker 1: At least when Yellow went out of business, they not
Speaker 1: only paid back the federal government the loan that they
Speaker 1: had borrowed, but interest included. So those vehicles were out
Speaker 1: on the market and people were buying those and buying
Speaker 1: those up with the truck recession that we've had a
Speaker 1: lot of people that jumped into the market during the
Speaker 1: pandemic that said, hey, you know trucking industry, you know
Speaker 1: freight rates are way high, and I've got you know,
Speaker 1: I've got a CDO license. I'm going to go out
Speaker 1: and buy a truck and I'm gonna make I'm gonna
Speaker 1: make me some money. And so they they just jumped
Speaker 1: into it both feet and forgot the fact that you know,
Speaker 1: you've got to know what you're doing. You've got to
Speaker 1: plan your expenses, you've got to plan your revenue and
Speaker 1: you've got to make good business decisions to stay in business. Well,
Speaker 1: when freight rates started coming down after the pandemic, they
Speaker 1: couldn't make it based on the operations that they had.
Speaker 1: They went out of business. So a lot of these
Speaker 1: late model trucks are out there. That's why you've seen
Speaker 1: the late model trucks on the marketplace that you used
Speaker 1: truck industry being extremely high. So with people being able
Speaker 1: to go out and buy those, the emphasis on the
Speaker 1: new trucks, plus the fact you had during the Biden administration,
Speaker 1: you had these new emissions controls that they wanted to
Speaker 1: put on those and said that they were going to
Speaker 1: implement those going into the year twenty twenty seven. So
Speaker 1: people were holding off their purchases to the end of
Speaker 1: twenty twenty six, to before they made their purchases so
Speaker 1: that they would get the latest model before the prices
Speaker 1: went up tremendously. And so there's been this shuffling of
Speaker 1: the deck back and forth as far as when people
Speaker 1: will want to buy new trucks, the availability of trucks,
Speaker 1: between the tariffs possibly coming in and these emissions controls
Speaker 1: knowing where they're going to settle, and they're still waiting
Speaker 1: on these emissions controls and the final settlement where these
Speaker 1: emission controls are going to be before people jump into
Speaker 1: the market. We'll pick this up coming up. I'm Kevin Gordon,
Speaker 1: America's truck and Network seven hundred WLW. This is America's
Speaker 1: trucking network seven hundred WLW. Continue on this conversation. Class
Speaker 1: eight truck order slide forty four percent. As Tariff's strain
Speaker 1: ACT Research which stands for America Commercial Transportation Research Company.
Speaker 1: They do these surveys and they go through and they
Speaker 1: they actually actually track the sales and then they report
Speaker 1: on the Carter Weiz Research Analystic ACT Research on a
Speaker 1: six and twelve month base. Dis orders continue to trend down.
Speaker 1: We talked about that the longest four higher downturn in
Speaker 1: history continues to weigh on tract or demand as freight
Speaker 1: rates continue to run below inflation levels and even as
Speaker 1: more teriffts are imposed. The nation awaits a verdict on
Speaker 1: the International Emergency Economic Powers Act as far as tariffs
Speaker 1: are concerned in terms of whether they're going to be
Speaker 1: affected by the teriffts or not. So if they're not
Speaker 1: going to be affected by the terriffs, you can put
Speaker 1: off whether or not you're going to make this purchase
Speaker 1: or not. Case the Supreme Court will hear in early November.
Speaker 1: Fife also pointed out that the industry is still awaiting
Speaker 1: the announcement from the Environmental Protection Agency on the future
Speaker 1: of the planned emissions regulations. The agency previously announced that
Speaker 1: that is reconsidering its heavy duty truck emissions regulations related
Speaker 1: to the Phase three greenhouse gas emission standards. Magnus Coke,
Speaker 1: a vice president of Strategy and Marketing and brand management
Speaker 1: Volvo Trucks North America. The North American truck market continues
Speaker 1: to show weakness, with the September industry orders in US
Speaker 1: and Canada coming in just north of nineteen thousand units
Speaker 1: compared to thirty four thousand in September of last year.
Speaker 1: Coke added that the customers are show allowing their fleets
Speaker 1: to age while navigating ongoing uncertainty around inflation, tariffs, and
Speaker 1: the upcoming emissions regulations. So, as I mentioned before, we
Speaker 1: are resilient people. You are resilient business owners of your
Speaker 1: independent operations. Once you know the rules, you can operate
Speaker 1: with almost anything. It's this idea of having this item
Speaker 1: up in the air this item up in the air.
Speaker 1: One item up in the air would be bad enough,
Speaker 1: but when you're jumbling all these other things, it becomes
Speaker 1: extremely complicated. And people look at and they don't mention
Speaker 1: in here at all, which they should. You're not just
Speaker 1: you know, you're just not going out to the money
Speaker 1: tree and pulling money off and going out and buying
Speaker 1: a truck. You're looking at that in terms of financing
Speaker 1: that you're saying, I'm not going to get a return
Speaker 1: on investment if I buy this truck. The amount of
Speaker 1: financing and the operations that I'm going to have, and
Speaker 1: can I afford this? Now, Also, you got to take
Speaker 1: into consideration that if you've got an older truck, the
Speaker 1: possibility of maintenance. So if you're looking at the maintenance
Speaker 1: end of it, every day that truck's off the road,
Speaker 1: you're not earning money. So if you're looking at the
Speaker 1: truck from the stand of a newer truck in terms
Speaker 1: of a number of days on the road versus the
Speaker 1: maintenance days, you look at that versus what you're paying.
Speaker 1: And again I mentioned this. I'm not giving any tax
Speaker 1: advice here, but what you need to do is maybe
Speaker 1: talk to the person that prepares your tax returns, talk
Speaker 1: to it, set up an appointment if you don't have
Speaker 1: a tax attorney or a tax accountant, and may get
Speaker 1: some advice from them. Because you've got this Section one
Speaker 1: seventy nine item from the IRS that in the one
Speaker 1: big beautiful bill that was put through, you can deduct
Speaker 1: from your taxes new equipment up to one point two
Speaker 1: five million dollars one one million, two hundred and fifty
Speaker 1: thousand dollars of equipment purchases. You can depreciate that as
Speaker 1: an expense in the current year. You don't have to
Speaker 1: write that off for a five to seven year period
Speaker 1: of time. So what you need to do and sit
Speaker 1: down with somebody and maybe pay a couple of hundred
Speaker 1: bucks to do this, is run the numbers in terms of, all, right,
Speaker 1: if my finance, if my interest payment on my loan's
Speaker 1: going to be X and such, if I'm not going
Speaker 1: to have the truck off the road because of maintenance,
Speaker 1: and what the maintenance would cost, if I've got the
Speaker 1: higher interest rates on this, if I've got this deduction
Speaker 1: that I can take, so whatever that I make, I
Speaker 1: can deduct one point two five million dollars off of
Speaker 1: that Where am I going to be at the end
Speaker 1: of the year. Will I be making money or will
Speaker 1: I not be making money? Do I need to stand
Speaker 1: pat or should I take the plunge and buy a
Speaker 1: new truck. These are some of the things that have
Speaker 1: to be worked out, and I suggest that you do that.
Speaker 1: That one million, two hundred and fifty thousand dollars right
Speaker 1: off in one year is a heck of a carrot
Speaker 1: out there in terms of being able to purchase something.
Speaker 1: Let's see what else we got in here. They just
Speaker 1: keep going on here about you know, the uncertainty in
Speaker 1: terms of when is the recession going to go the
Speaker 1: truck recession going to go over in terms of UH,
Speaker 1: the other agency, because you've got the ACT Research and
Speaker 1: you've got FTR that does their survey in terms of
Speaker 1: the trucks trucking purchases and their numbers are pretty much
Speaker 1: the same. So again it boils down to the Class
Speaker 1: eight truck sales are down this particular month compared to
Speaker 1: the but they're up. They're up from the previous month,
Speaker 1: but down from this time last year. So these trends
Speaker 1: are have to be paid attention to and has to
Speaker 1: be taken into consideration over a six month period of time.
Speaker 1: Tell you what I want to talk a little well,
Speaker 1: I'll tell you what I'm going to get into this
Speaker 1: particular thing real quick, and then I want to talk
Speaker 1: about oil and gas prices real quick as well. New
Speaker 1: NFIB Survey. Now this is a survey of small businesses
Speaker 1: and it's the National Federation of Independent Business Businesses and
Speaker 1: they do their survey that is different than the consumer
Speaker 1: sentiment survey that we had from the University of Michigan.
Speaker 1: These are actually business owners out there taking this survey
Speaker 1: and determining what the business is out there. New NFIB
Speaker 1: Survey Small Business Optimism declines in September. That's the headline. However,
Speaker 1: when you read it, NFIB Small Business Optimism Index decline
Speaker 1: two points in September to ninety eight point eight. This
Speaker 1: was the first decline, first decline in three months, though
Speaker 1: it remains above the survey's fifty two year average of
Speaker 1: ninety eight. So yeah, it declined, but it's still above
Speaker 1: the fifty two year average, and it's still not it's
Speaker 1: still well above where it should be or where it
Speaker 1: has been. It's also the first decline in the last
Speaker 1: three months. So the uncertainty index rose seven points in October.
Speaker 1: In August rather to one hundred. According to NFIB Chief
Speaker 1: economist Bill Dunkelberg, optimism among small business owners decreased in September. Well, yeah,
Speaker 1: a little bit, but not as dramatic as they would
Speaker 1: have thought. Supply chain and inflation issues stood out as
Speaker 1: the key problem in the report. Net percentage of owners
Speaker 1: raising average selling prices rose three points, So there's three
Speaker 1: percent more of the business owners thinking about raising their prices.
Speaker 1: Let's see a net thirty one percent plan to increase
Speaker 1: prices over the next three months. Fourteen percent of the
Speaker 1: owners reported that inflation was their single most important problem
Speaker 1: fourteen percent out of the total hundred, so eighty six
Speaker 1: percent that wasn't listed as their top priority. So maybe
Speaker 1: inflation isn't all that now the one thing in here
Speaker 1: that made me kind of scratch my head. A net
Speaker 1: negative seven percent of owners viewed current inventory stocks as
Speaker 1: too low in September, down seven points from October. Well,
Speaker 1: if your inventory stocks are down, how about making more
Speaker 1: or buying more so that you have more in your
Speaker 1: inventory stocks. One bright spot was actual earnings changes, the
Speaker 1: percentage of owners reporting higher versus lower profits, which increase
Speaker 1: three months three points in September, so that is going up.
Speaker 1: So the bottom line on this survey is that their
Speaker 1: optimism over the period of time may be down a
Speaker 1: little bit, but if you look at them in terms
Speaker 1: of their current numbers, all of their current numbers are up,
Speaker 1: and they're very optimistic about what the current situation is
Speaker 1: as opposed to the future. One of the areas in
Speaker 1: here that seasonally adjusted sixteen percent owners plan to create
Speaker 1: new jobs in the next three months, up one point
Speaker 1: from August. But they're one big thing that they're talking
Speaker 1: about is that when they go out and try to
Speaker 1: hire more people, they're not finding enough qualified applicants. So
Speaker 1: the jobs that they have to fill, they can't find
Speaker 1: the necessary people with the necessary skills to fill those positions.
Speaker 1: Now that should be looked at as an indictment either
Speaker 1: of the employees themselves showing up that are not ready
Speaker 1: to take on this responsibility, or the failing of our
Speaker 1: schools not having these people up to the skills in
Speaker 1: order to go into the job market. We're not going
Speaker 1: to have time to get oil and gas prices. But
Speaker 1: it is falling and falling interestingly and those prices have
Speaker 1: come down, which again, when you have falling energy prices,
Speaker 1: that's going to be more money in your pocket, so
Speaker 1: that you've got inflation under control. Well, folks, that does
Speaker 1: it for us. Stay tuned for Red Eye Radio at
Speaker 1: the top of the hour. I'm Kevin Gordon, America's truck
Speaker 1: A Network seven hundred WLW