Speaker 1: This is America's Truncking Network with Kevin Gordon. Welcome aboard,
Speaker 1: Thanks for tuning in on this Friday morning. We've got
Speaker 1: to start off with a little bit of a weather alert,
Speaker 1: give you a heads up. We'll have the full forecast
Speaker 1: at the bottom of the hour. Significant and catastrophic flooding
Speaker 1: in the Pacific Northwest, very cold temperatures in the northern plains.
Speaker 1: Lingering rainfall from yesterday's atmospheric river over the Pacific Northwest
Speaker 1: exacerbates ongoing catastrophic major river flooding and landslides, which will
Speaker 1: continue across portions of western Washington and northwest Oregon for
Speaker 1: several days. Arctic air will plummet southward into the northern plains,
Speaker 1: bringing temperatures in the single digits to the region today. Now,
Speaker 1: in the Greater Cincinni Northern Kentucky area, we are expecting,
Speaker 1: or they're been telling us that buy later on this morning,
Speaker 1: we should well. The people will be waking up at
Speaker 1: five six o'clock in the morning, they'll be seeing anywhere
Speaker 1: from three to five inches of snow. So it's going
Speaker 1: to be interesting as far as what's going on there.
Speaker 1: Of course, the morning commute might be a little bit
Speaker 1: difficult in the Greater Sinsaye Northern Kentucky area. But again,
Speaker 1: stay tuned to your weather alerts. Make sure that you're
Speaker 1: up to date on that. If you're going through an
Speaker 1: area you're not familiar with, make sure you're tuning into that.
Speaker 1: If you see something that is not part of the
Speaker 1: weather report, let the people behind you know what's going on,
Speaker 1: and hopefully the people in front of you will let
Speaker 1: you know what's going on. Because, as I've said numerous times,
Speaker 1: job one is getting home safe. So let's have a
Speaker 1: safe trip out there. We got initial job as claims.
Speaker 1: Every Thursday, initial jobless claims comes out. Okay, Now, again
Speaker 1: this affects the trucking industry because you know, if people
Speaker 1: are unemployed, they're not going to be buying as much
Speaker 1: and then therefore there's not going to be the need
Speaker 1: to deliver stuff to the stores, which then would cut
Speaker 1: down on the number of trips that you have to
Speaker 1: make and affect the trucking industry. And ever since Liberation
Speaker 1: Day on April to second, they kept talking about, well,
Speaker 1: you know, we're gonna see a recession. We're gonna see
Speaker 1: you you know, the inflation's going to go out of
Speaker 1: control because these tariffs are going to go. And oh,
Speaker 1: by the way, there is a show where these two
Speaker 1: guys are talking about tariffs, and I got to.
Speaker 2: Tell you that two of them have no clue what
Speaker 2: the hell they're talking about.
Speaker 1: I won't mention their names, but it was I was
Speaker 1: listening to it the other day and I just it
Speaker 1: was one of those things where when you hear something,
Speaker 1: you just you want to jump through the phone and say,
Speaker 1: are you guys even know what the hell you're talking about?
Speaker 2: The stuff that you're.
Speaker 1: Saying just doesn't make any sense, and you really obviously
Speaker 1: don't know anything about economics. So do yourself a favor,
Speaker 1: don't embarrass yourself, and just shut up.
Speaker 2: But anyway, they were talking about how.
Speaker 1: Terrifts said, oh, terriffs will always every time, there's no
Speaker 1: way that it won't lead to inflation. We'll look at
Speaker 1: an economics book once in a while. You bose those
Speaker 1: because if you look at the tariffs over time, terraffs,
Speaker 1: especially in the way they're being used now, is a
Speaker 1: negotiating tool to get the teriffs lowered. On the other
Speaker 1: end of the countries that have been taking advantage of
Speaker 1: us in some instances, these tariffs will go up, and
Speaker 1: of course yes there will raise prices in certain areas,
Speaker 1: but they will lower prices in other areas, so the
Speaker 1: overall balance will be a net effect of less inflation.
Speaker 1: But yet apparently these guys don't understand that, and just
Speaker 1: infuriated me to hear that somebody was actually out there
Speaker 1: talking about that and have and so wrong. But anyway,
Speaker 1: the initial job as claims comes out every Thursday, and again,
Speaker 1: if you know people are unemployed, and going back to
Speaker 1: Liberation Day, you know there's gonna be tremendous employment.
Speaker 2: We're going to be.
Speaker 1: You know, they were forecasting and claiming, wringing their hands
Speaker 1: that there's going to be a recession, and as you recall,
Speaker 1: the stock market on that day took a big plunge.
Speaker 1: Well you know, from that day forward, not only have
Speaker 1: they recouped those losses, but they have increased since the
Speaker 1: first of the year thirty six percent.
Speaker 2: As far as the stock.
Speaker 1: Market even more than that, I believe, and day after
Speaker 1: day from time to time, there have been record numbers
Speaker 1: in the stock market. So anybody that's got a four
Speaker 1: oh one K plan, or anybody that's invested in the
Speaker 1: stock market, you are doing well, and you're if you've
Speaker 1: got your retirement money in there, you're doing pretty well
Speaker 1: at this point as far as you know the stock
Speaker 1: market and what people were talking about. Then the stock
Speaker 1: market had gone down tremendously and the people panicked, and
Speaker 1: whether they were talking about, you know, we're going to
Speaker 1: go into a recession and there's going to be rampid inflation,
Speaker 1: and they're going to be unemployment and all this sort of.
Speaker 2: Stuff, well, none of that is materialized.
Speaker 1: And as fat matter factor, have been numerous situations where
Speaker 1: you know, we keep seeing these these headlines retail sales
Speaker 1: unexpectedly higher, unemployment unexpectedly lower, job creation unexpectedly higher, and
Speaker 1: all of the things that they said we're going to
Speaker 1: happen haven't happened. And then we come into you know,
Speaker 1: jobless claims on a weekly basis, and sometimes they're up
Speaker 1: and sometimes they're down. Last week they were way down
Speaker 1: to I think three year lows, and this week, if
Speaker 1: this isn't a clear indication of what I have been
Speaker 1: saying for a number, well for a long time, I
Speaker 1: have said it on this program numerous times from the beginning.
Speaker 1: I've been saying this over the last twenty years, as
Speaker 1: a matter of fact.
Speaker 2: That the spoon fed regurgitators.
Speaker 1: In the mainstream media are not going to give you
Speaker 1: the accurate information. It's been proven as a result of
Speaker 1: what we heard about COVID. It's true what we heard
Speaker 1: about Joe Biden's mental capabilities. It's true what we heard
Speaker 1: in terms terms of any type of inflation numbers or
Speaker 1: job numbers, as far as what's going on, as far
Speaker 1: as the economy is concerned, as far as who is
Speaker 1: ahead in the polls, of the polling that they take,
Speaker 1: those are always wrong, and climate change, all the predictions
Speaker 1: that they made about climate change. And again, the spoon
Speaker 1: fed regurgitators in the mainstream media, as from the beginning
Speaker 1: of the Trump administration, they have been trying to talk
Speaker 1: down the economy and manufacture recession. Jobless claims came out
Speaker 1: yesterday and the headlines, just looking at the individual headlines
Speaker 1: from the individual companies of the different reporting sources, Reuters
Speaker 1: US weekly job claims post the largest increase in nearly
Speaker 1: four and a half years.
Speaker 2: Bloomberg US jobless.
Speaker 1: Claims jump by the most since twenty twenty or twenty
Speaker 1: after holiday drop. Let's see seeking Alpha initial job as
Speaker 1: claims jump past consensus in first week in December four
Speaker 1: X factory US job was claims surge after Thanksgiving, but
Speaker 1: low layoffs are still the prevailing trend. ABC News US
Speaker 1: jobless benefit applications jumped to two hundred and thirty six thousand,
Speaker 1: but continuing claims are falling. The best headline that described anything,
Speaker 1: and again one of those situations where you start reading
Speaker 1: the story and you wonder where the hell they came
Speaker 1: up with the headline A group called Seeking Alpha jump
Speaker 1: in initial claims signals holiday volatility rather than trouble. Now,
Speaker 1: yesterday morning, I had a doctor's appointment, which was early
Speaker 1: in the morning.
Speaker 2: I wanted to get it out of.
Speaker 1: The way because I had stuff I wanted to do.
Speaker 1: And so at eight thirty in the morning, I'm pulling
Speaker 1: up the jobles claims numbers and looking at what the
Speaker 1: headlines were, and Reuters at eight thirty in the morning,
Speaker 1: we're at about matter of fact, the date on the
Speaker 1: here says eight forty six US weekly jobless claims surge
Speaker 1: amid seasonal adjustment challenges.
Speaker 2: Not a bad headline.
Speaker 1: The number of and this is the first paragraph, the
Speaker 1: number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits surge
Speaker 1: last week, but that likely reflected difficulties adjusting the data
Speaker 1: for seasonal fluctuations around this time of the year, rather
Speaker 1: than a material change in labor market conditions.
Speaker 2: And then they go and talk about the number.
Speaker 1: Two hours later, maybe three hours later, here's their new headline,
Speaker 1: same company. US weekly jobless claims posts largest increase in
Speaker 1: nearly four and a half years amid seasonal volatility. We'll
Speaker 1: get into this. It's just infuriating me. And you tell
Speaker 1: me when we get into this story, does the story
Speaker 1: match the headline. I'm Kevin Gordon, America's truck in Network
Speaker 1: seven hundred WLW.
Speaker 2: Need this.
Speaker 1: He is the racing report on America's Drugging Network on
Speaker 1: seven hundred WLW.
Speaker 3: NASCAR has reached an agreement with twenty three eleven Racing
Speaker 3: in front Row Motor Sports on Thursday, ending NASCAR's anti
Speaker 3: trust trial. On its ninth day, Teams attorney Jeffrey Kessler
Speaker 3: told Judge Kenneth Bell that he is pleased to say
Speaker 3: the parties have positively settled this matter in a way
Speaker 3: that will benefit the industry going forward. A document with
Speaker 3: the terms of the settlement was reviewed by Judge but
Speaker 3: Kenneth Bell, marking the end of the lawsuit brought by
Speaker 3: twenty three to eleven in front Row. NASCAR's anti trust
Speaker 3: trial stem from a bitter dispute over negotiations for a
Speaker 3: new agreement with the charter system that governs the relationship
Speaker 3: between NASCAR and its premier teams. Twenty three to eleven
Speaker 3: in front Row sued NASCAR Holdings for three hundred and
Speaker 3: sixty five million dollars in combined damages. Michael Jordan and
Speaker 3: Jim Franz commented on the settlement.
Speaker 4: I mean, like two competitors, obviously we try to get
Speaker 4: as much done in each other's favorite but I think
Speaker 4: you'll collect and I don't think Jim was any opposite
Speaker 4: of me. Was the fans has always been the best,
Speaker 4: you know, solution to this old proceed and to the
Speaker 4: support itself. The only way they and I've said this
Speaker 4: from d Ones, the only way this sport's going to
Speaker 4: grow is we have to find some synergy between the
Speaker 4: two minutes of each and I think we've gotten to
Speaker 4: that point. Unfortunately, it took sixteen months to get to here,
Speaker 4: but I think you know, level heads that got us
Speaker 4: to this point to where we can actually work together
Speaker 4: and grow this sport. I'm very proud about that, and
Speaker 4: I think Jim Jim feels a stream and I.
Speaker 5: Do feel the same. But you can get back to
Speaker 5: focusing and what we really love, and that's racing. And
Speaker 5: we spent a lot of time and I've then, ah,
Speaker 5: not really focused on that so much as we need
Speaker 5: the things. I feel like that we've made a very
Speaker 5: good decision here together.
Speaker 2: I love.
Speaker 3: This is the raething repard on America's Drugging Network on
Speaker 3: seven hundred WLW.
Speaker 6: Sake Denis and reporting for a t en It's former
Speaker 6: Bengal and Pro Football Hall of Fame or Anthony Munos.
Speaker 6: Did you know that ninety five percent of the Anthony
Speaker 6: Munhas Foundations funding goes to Revue.
Speaker 1: In the previous segment, I talked about this initial jobless claims.
Speaker 1: The same reporting Reuters, the same group comes out with
Speaker 1: the headlines and it is amazing how at eight thirty
Speaker 1: in the morning they can come up with one headline
Speaker 1: and then two hours later come up with a completely
Speaker 1: different just to reset the stage.
Speaker 2: Eight thirty in.
Speaker 1: The morning, US job as claims claims, US jobless claims
Speaker 1: surge amid seasonal adjustment changes. So nothing too terrible there,
Speaker 1: But then two hours later, three hours later, US Weekly
Speaker 1: Job is claims posts largest increase in nearly four and
Speaker 1: a half years amid seasonal volatility.
Speaker 2: Again, yes, that is.
Speaker 1: Probably a line in this story, but is it the story?
Speaker 1: If you're just scrolling through the headlines, which a lot
Speaker 1: of people are doing now, they just look at the
Speaker 1: headline and that's how they get their information.
Speaker 2: So if they see the thing it says.
Speaker 1: Increases in nearly the largest increase in nearly four and
Speaker 1: a half years, people are gonna think the job market
Speaker 1: is extremely weak.
Speaker 2: So listen to the first the first paragraph of this
Speaker 2: The number.
Speaker 1: Of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits increased by
Speaker 1: the most in nearly four and a half years last week. Okay, yeah,
Speaker 1: that sounds horrible, but the search likely does not support
Speaker 1: a material weakening in the labor market conditions, as the
Speaker 1: claims data are volatile around this time of year, does
Speaker 1: that justify the headline that they put out there. It's
Speaker 1: kind of like if it leads, if it bleeds, it leads.
Speaker 2: Type of thing. Again, in my opinion.
Speaker 1: These spoon fed regurgitators in the mainstream media are trying
Speaker 1: to manufacture a recession, talk down the economy, and quite honestly,
Speaker 1: I don't know how much way to say this, but
Speaker 1: the headlines that we're seeing from the spoon fed regurgitators
Speaker 1: in the mainstream media and what they are talking about
Speaker 1: as far as the economy, which is in my opinion,
Speaker 1: putting the idea in people's head about the economy versus
Speaker 1: what the numbers are saying, and what the job growth
Speaker 1: and what the job layoffs and the picture. And as
Speaker 1: far as the inflation versus what the inflation was for
Speaker 1: the last four years.
Speaker 2: It's like a.
Speaker 1: Reversal of what should have been reported back during the
Speaker 1: Biden years when you had in one month you had
Speaker 1: the inflation jump up to nine point one percent, and
Speaker 1: they talked about, well, you know, it's just a temporary
Speaker 1: blip on the radar screen. Things will be back to normal.
Speaker 1: It's just, you know, it's transitory. You know, everything's everything's cool,
Speaker 1: don't worry about it. It wasn't okay because the massive
Speaker 1: increases that we've seen in items up to the up
Speaker 1: to the beginning of this year was caused buy them
Speaker 1: and nobody in the media talked about it. Now all
Speaker 1: of a sudden, things are turning around. Oil prices are
Speaker 1: way down, up to twenty five percent lower than what.
Speaker 2: They were at the first of the year.
Speaker 1: Gas prices are now below a doll There are a
Speaker 1: couple of states in this country right now that have
Speaker 1: actually their gas prices are below two dollars a gallon.
Speaker 1: And when you start lowering gasoline prices to the point
Speaker 1: where people have more money in their pocket, they have
Speaker 1: more you know, they're not spending as much money on
Speaker 1: gasoline and on crude oil and heating oil, and that
Speaker 1: for their homes. They're going to have more money in
Speaker 1: their pockets. They're going to have more money to spend,
Speaker 1: and the economy will grow if we could get lion
Speaker 1: Jerry Powell to lower interest rates. And I was listening
Speaker 1: to somebody the other just yesterday morning talking about, well,
Speaker 1: lower interest rates from the Fed, that really doesn't affect
Speaker 1: mortgage rates.
Speaker 2: And this person was a real estate person.
Speaker 1: Well, it doesn't directly affect mortgage rates. However, that is
Speaker 1: the bend smart number tied to that becomes lower credit
Speaker 1: card interest rates tied to that then becomes lower prices
Speaker 1: interest rates on car loans, and then eventually, because the
Speaker 1: housing market is tied to the banks and tied to
Speaker 1: the profitability these banks, the banks can then charge less
Speaker 1: as far as our home loans are concerned, because interest
Speaker 1: rates along the other way are lower for them in
Speaker 1: terms of their operating costs in order to borrow money
Speaker 1: from other banks. So again this eventually does filter through
Speaker 1: to the mortgage rates. And the person talking about this
Speaker 1: that didn't see the correlation unbelievable because when you look
Speaker 1: back prior to the plandemic during the Trump administration in
Speaker 1: twenty nineteen, we had basically the interest rates the overnight
Speaker 1: rate was around zero and the mortgage rates were about
Speaker 1: two and a half to three percent. Well, when Biden
Speaker 1: took office and that number for the overnight interest rate
Speaker 1: went up to five percent and above mortgage rates went
Speaker 1: up to seven percent.
Speaker 2: So is there a direct correlation or is it.
Speaker 1: Just you know, filter through the economy and filter through
Speaker 1: to those numbers eventually. But again it is an effect
Speaker 1: on that. So looking at this again getting into this
Speaker 1: first paragraph, but the surge likely does not suggest a
Speaker 1: material weakening in the labor market conditions as the claims
Speaker 1: data are volatile around this time of the year, so again,
Speaker 1: no big deal, but why make a big deal about it?
Speaker 2: As far as the headline is concerned.
Speaker 1: The larger than expected rise of initial jobless claims reported
Speaker 1: by the Labor Department on Thursday reversed the sharp drop
Speaker 1: the prior week, which had pushed filings to a three
Speaker 1: year low.
Speaker 2: Just a week ago.
Speaker 1: The unemployment numbers the initial jobless claims worked to a
Speaker 1: three three year low. Economists said that adjusting the data
Speaker 1: for seasonal fluctuations is always is always challenging during the
Speaker 1: start of the holiday season, and recommended focusing on the
Speaker 1: four week moving average to get a better read of
Speaker 1: the labor market. The four week average of claims suggest
Speaker 1: that the labor market conditions remain stable. According to Stephen Stanley,
Speaker 1: Chief US Economists, it's Santander.
Speaker 2: US Capital Markets.
Speaker 1: The bulk of this week to week volunteer volatility.
Speaker 2: Is seasonal noise. On an underlying.
Speaker 1: Basis, nothing has changed, but if anything, we would have
Speaker 1: to say that initial claims are running slightly below the
Speaker 1: long established trend. One of several data points that refute
Speaker 1: Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's characterization of a shaky labor
Speaker 1: market I have I've not heard anybody in any of
Speaker 1: these quotes, in any of these stories up to this
Speaker 1: point making a comment refuting what Lion Jerry Powell said.
Speaker 1: Let me repeat this on an underlying basis. Nothing has changed,
Speaker 1: but if anything, we would have to say that the
Speaker 1: initial claims are running slightly below the long established trend,
Speaker 1: one of the several data points that refutes Federal Reserve
Speaker 1: Chairman Jerome Powell's characterization of a shaky labor market. Again,
Speaker 1: I've not seen many economists disagreeing with Jerome Powell, and
Speaker 1: this is one of the first times I've ever seen
Speaker 1: that initial claims for state unemployment benefits jumped forty four thousand,
Speaker 1: to the biggest increase since mid July of twenty twenty one,
Speaker 1: to a seasonally adjusted two hundred and thirty six thousand
Speaker 1: for the week end in December sixth the labor market,
Speaker 1: the Labor Department said economists pulled by Royers had forecast
Speaker 1: two hundred twenty Now, when we've been talking about these
Speaker 1: numbers over the last year, they have talked about that
Speaker 1: unemployment initial job as claims are generally ranging between two
Speaker 1: hundred and ten thousand and two hundred and fifty thousand
Speaker 1: at two hundred and thirty six thousand, jumping from a
Speaker 1: three year low the previous week up forty four thousand.
Speaker 1: It's still within those parameters of the low end at
Speaker 1: two hundred and ten thousand or two hundred and fifty
Speaker 1: thousand on the high end.
Speaker 2: So rather than pointing that out, they.
Speaker 1: Just try to, I guess, muddy the waters and make
Speaker 1: things seem worse than they are talking about. The better
Speaker 1: way to gauge this the four week moving average of claims,
Speaker 1: which irons out seasonal fluctuations, rose two thousand to two
Speaker 1: hundred and sixteen thousand, seven hundred and fifty last week,
Speaker 1: So at two hundred and sixteen, you know, a four
Speaker 1: week average, it only went up two thousand at two
Speaker 1: hundred and sixteen that's at the lower end of that
Speaker 1: two hundred and ten to two hundred and fifty thousand
Speaker 1: jo initial jobless claims unbelievable, and there's more data in here.
Speaker 2: We'll get to it.
Speaker 1: I'm Kevin Gordon, America's truck at Network seven hundred WLW.
Speaker 7: Here's your trucking forecast for the Try State and the
Speaker 7: rest of the country. In the Try State overnight snow
Speaker 7: with two to four inches expected for most of us
Speaker 7: who are under a winter weather advisory. Three to five
Speaker 7: inches possible further south in Kentucky and southern Indiana as
Speaker 7: they are under a winter storm warning, so we'll come
Speaker 7: to an MD by mid morning Friday, a high at
Speaker 7: thirty seven, so moving back into the area Saturday afternoon,
Speaker 7: one to three inches of snow expected the high year
Speaker 7: thirty as a winter storm watch. We'll start at ten
Speaker 7: o'clock in the morning and end at seven o'clock Sunday morning,
Speaker 7: with an additional one to three inches of snow possible
Speaker 7: Saturday night. Mostly sunny Sunday, but very cold, a high
Speaker 7: have only thirteen Nationally, a narrow band of monit to
Speaker 7: heavy snow likely from the midwest, upper Ohio Valley and
Speaker 7: into the central Appalachians overnight, with the second round of
Speaker 7: accumulating snow Friday from the northern Plains moving southeast into
Speaker 7: the middle of Mississippi Valley. Like affect snow winding down
Speaker 7: but will return late Saturday into Sunday. Dryer wha they're
Speaker 7: seen in the Pacific Northwest with flooding impacts continue. Record
Speaker 7: warm tempest you're seen across the west, while arctic gaere
Speaker 7: will move into the northern plains and upper Mississippi Valley
Speaker 7: Friday and Saturday.
Speaker 1: Seven hundred wlw IM Kevin Gordon is as America Struck
Speaker 1: in network now.
Speaker 2: I'm focusing on these jobless.
Speaker 1: Claims because it's been in the news today and a
Speaker 1: lot of people have made hay with it. And I've
Speaker 1: said this before and it bears repeating. When I look
Speaker 1: at the economic numbers, when I see what is going on,
Speaker 1: I want to give the truth as far as what's
Speaker 1: going on. I don't want to go into hyperbole. I
Speaker 1: don't want to let something go out there that doesn't
Speaker 1: go challenge, goes unchallenged. And as I've said before, I
Speaker 1: think the one thing holding back this economy is high
Speaker 1: interest rates. We keep hearing a little bit of inklings
Speaker 1: of that in terms of when they're looking at new
Speaker 1: home sales. Homes being pulled off the market, as we
Speaker 1: covered earlier in the week. So these reports where people
Speaker 1: are saying, you know what, my house is on the market,
Speaker 1: it's going into the winner that generally allows you time
Speaker 1: for people to search for homes. I'm just not going
Speaker 1: to go through the nonsense of keeping that house on
Speaker 1: the list on the market, so they delist them. That
Speaker 1: is directly affected because if the houses are selling and
Speaker 1: the interest rates are low, people can afford to buy
Speaker 1: those homes.
Speaker 2: On the flip side, there's.
Speaker 1: A number of people and record numbers of people that
Speaker 1: are actually canceling contracts. They actually establish a contract, say
Speaker 1: that there's going to be a closing date, and then
Speaker 1: back out of that contract again because of interest rates,
Speaker 1: because of the cost of getting a new house and
Speaker 1: all the stuff that comes along with that. So I
Speaker 1: focus on this because again, if we're talking about whether
Speaker 1: or not the economy is strong, whether or not they
Speaker 1: are going to be purchases we're looking at.
Speaker 2: I mean, we just.
Speaker 1: Had numbers from Black Friday and Cyber Monday, which were
Speaker 1: record numbers. So if people are out of work, if
Speaker 1: the economy is crashing the way these spoon fed regurgitators
Speaker 1: in the mainstream media hope it does, it bothers me
Speaker 1: that they would actually hope this, but apparently they are.
Speaker 1: Then I want to make sure that we're getting the
Speaker 1: correct information out here on this program, so that you
Speaker 1: have ammunition to know that what you're feeling as far
Speaker 1: as your economy is concerned, is good. And all this
Speaker 1: noise about well, what's going on in the rest of
Speaker 1: the economy, we dig into that to make sure that
Speaker 1: are those numbers correct? Are they giving us the actual facts?
Speaker 1: And when I read stories like this just bothers me
Speaker 1: that they can't do a straight up reporting. They always
Speaker 1: have to throw stuff in here again, the four week
Speaker 1: moving average.
Speaker 2: And if you.
Speaker 1: Missed any of our segments or missed any of our
Speaker 1: other shows, make sure you hit up that iHeartRadio app
Speaker 1: because all of our shows are there brought to you
Speaker 1: buy our friends at Rush Truck Centers Now. Quoting Nancy
Speaker 1: Van den Houghton, lead US economists at Oxford Economics, it's
Speaker 1: a little surprising that recent layoff announcements haven't translated into
Speaker 1: a shift in higher initial claims. An announcement is not
Speaker 1: a layoff. If you announce that there are going to
Speaker 1: be layoffs that is in the future. Those will get
Speaker 1: some indications that they have some of these announcements that
Speaker 1: beginning in March, they're going to lay people off in
Speaker 1: these companies. Now, whether that happens or not, whether things
Speaker 1: turn around with that company and they back off from that.
Speaker 1: We don't know, but the initial comment about that, and
Speaker 1: so one of the things that she, I guess corrects
Speaker 1: herself and says, it may be that some workers who
Speaker 1: have lost their jobs have received generous severance packages or
Speaker 1: have found other employment, although that is more difficult in
Speaker 1: the current labor market with the press rate of hiring.
Speaker 1: Not necessary, I mean, not necessarily, but again, at least
Speaker 1: she's answering her own question. The Fed on Wednesday cut
Speaker 1: in benchmarket overnight rate by twenty five basis points to
Speaker 1: the three point fifty three point five zero to three
Speaker 1: point seventy five range. US Central Bank has cut interest
Speaker 1: rates three times this year. Palell told reporters that the
Speaker 1: labor market seems to have significant downside risk, noting there
Speaker 1: was an over counting of non farm payrolls, which policymakers
Speaker 1: believe was still persisting. This is what I talked about
Speaker 1: yesterday when we talk about the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Speaker 1: You remember the brew haha back in September or so,
Speaker 1: when the head of that department got fired. When they
Speaker 1: announced in September the Bureau of Labor Statistics estimated that
Speaker 1: nine hundred and eleven fewer jobs were created in the
Speaker 1: twelve months through March of twenty twenty five, So going
Speaker 1: from April of twenty twenty four, during the last year
Speaker 1: of the Biden administration, until March of twenty twenty five,
Speaker 1: the job estimates, the job creations, the stuff that the
Speaker 1: spoon fed regurgitators were telling us how strong the economy was,
Speaker 1: that Biden is doing a great job, that he's on
Speaker 1: top of everything, that he sharp runs rings around people
Speaker 1: around the office, that he's the smartest guy in the room,
Speaker 1: et cetera. That those job numbers were overestimated by nine
Speaker 1: hundred and eleven thousand. That's on top of the eight
Speaker 1: hundred and eight eighteen thousand that were overreported in the
Speaker 1: prior twelve months. So the twelve month period of time
Speaker 1: from April of twenty twenty three to April of twenty
Speaker 1: twenty four, eight hundred and eighteen thousand jobs were overestimated,
Speaker 1: and then from the next twelve months nine hundred and
Speaker 1: eleven thousand, So just between those two years, more than
Speaker 1: what is that one point seven million jobs were overreported,
Speaker 1: and so all of the bragging about we have created
Speaker 1: sixteen million new jobs during this administration, well maybe not
Speaker 1: so much, because that's down about what fourteen to five now,
Speaker 1: and then when you take into consideration that act during
Speaker 1: the pandemic, there were twenty million people that lost their jobs.
Speaker 1: So you are now looking at a situation with their
Speaker 1: sixteen thousand that they were claiming. You're still talking about
Speaker 1: a four million jobs gap. Tweet you and you can't
Speaker 1: consider a replacement job backfilling something and saying that, oh
Speaker 1: we have created this, you know, created nothing. All you've
Speaker 1: done is ride the wave of these people rehiring the
Speaker 1: people that got fired in the first place. It just
Speaker 1: and of course, as I keep saying, the spoon federalgurgitators
Speaker 1: of the mainStreet media kept misleading us, telling us that
Speaker 1: the job market was strong, that all these jobs were
Speaker 1: being created.
Speaker 2: Nine hundred and eleven.
Speaker 1: Thousand fewer jobs as of from March that was reported
Speaker 1: in September, the equivalent of seventy six thousand fewer jobs
Speaker 1: per month. The BLS will publish the final payroll benchmark
Speaker 1: revision in February, along with January's employment numbers. The unemployment
Speaker 1: of the employment report for November delayed by the Schumer
Speaker 1: shutdown for forty three day government shutdown will be released
Speaker 1: next Tuesday. It will incorporate October's nonfarm payroll data. The
Speaker 1: unemployment rate for October, however, will not be available because
Speaker 1: the shutdown prevented them from gathering all that information. So
Speaker 1: it'll be interesting to see some of those numbers next week.
Speaker 1: But if the as Jerome Powell is saying that, if
Speaker 1: these numbers are not reliable and they have not corrected
Speaker 1: the method by which they obtain those numbers, how do
Speaker 1: we have the confidence that those numbers are going to
Speaker 1: be accurate? And the fact that the head of that agency,
Speaker 1: who they claim was doing a good job, blew it
Speaker 1: by what one point seven million jobs? They'reabout maybe one
Speaker 1: point eight million jobs, that that person should keep their job. Now, Okay,
Speaker 1: I buy the part that Okay, she doesn't really she's
Speaker 1: basically reporting or was reporting, the information that was provided
Speaker 1: to her. But if you're embarrassed by the previous year's numbers,
Speaker 1: wouldn't you say to those people that are collecting that
Speaker 1: number for you to make you look bad, that you
Speaker 1: correct the methods there, the methodology by which you're doing this.
Speaker 1: Make sure that when you get these numbers to me
Speaker 1: that they're accurate, so that the agency doesn't look bad,
Speaker 1: but apparently not putting the pressure on them to give
Speaker 1: the right information led to this again a second year
Speaker 1: of where nine hundred and eleven thousand jobs were overestimated
Speaker 1: on top of the eight hundred and eighteen million from
Speaker 1: the eight hundred and eighteen thousand from the previous year.
Speaker 2: We'll talk a little bit more about this coming up.
Speaker 1: I'm Kevin Gordon, America's truck and Network seven hundred WLW
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Speaker 2: HI Hard Radio.
Speaker 6: You know what your customers are doing right this second,
Speaker 6: the exact same thing you are listening to me, which.
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Speaker 1: I'm Kevin Gordon thought on this topic and again as
Speaker 1: a recovering accountant, you know, I just I just can't
Speaker 1: resist jumping into the numbers, looking at the numbers and saying, Okay,
Speaker 1: this doesn't match this, Where is this coming from?
Speaker 2: Does this make any sense? And take it on from
Speaker 2: there now.
Speaker 1: What was what's interesting is that when they're talking about
Speaker 1: the unemployment claims, we also have the number of the
Speaker 1: unemployment rate, which two months ago had gone down to
Speaker 1: or three months ago had gone down to four point
Speaker 1: two percent, then it jumped up to four point three,
Speaker 1: and then the last unemployment number we got that it
Speaker 1: was at four point four And yet we haven't seen
Speaker 1: any major increases in unemployment. We haven't seen these job
Speaker 1: numbers on a weekly basis spike and had been more
Speaker 1: within more than what was in that acceptable normal range
Speaker 1: of two hundred and ten thousand to two hundred and
Speaker 1: fifty thousand. Then we have this number that's the continuing
Speaker 1: people that have done their initial jobless claims and then
Speaker 1: are on continued benefits.
Speaker 2: They're on out And this is this struck.
Speaker 1: Me in this the number of people receiving unemployment benefits
Speaker 1: after an initial week of aid a proxy for hiring,
Speaker 1: dropped ninety nine thousand to a seasonally adjusted one point
Speaker 1: eight three eight million during the week ending November twenty ninth. Now,
Speaker 1: the previous week, they talked about how that number was
Speaker 1: now up to one point nine three seven, that it
Speaker 1: was creeping up there and it was in a range
Speaker 1: that was one of the highest in a couple of
Speaker 1: years or something like that. But the difference between one
Speaker 1: point eight and one point nine is a five percent drop.
Speaker 1: They come in here, and then they say that some
Speaker 1: of the decline in the so called continuing claims reflected
Speaker 1: the difficulties of seasonally adjusting the data around Thanksgiving holiday
Speaker 1: and also could be a result of people exhausting their
Speaker 1: eligibility for benefits, which is limited to twenty six weeks
Speaker 1: in some states.
Speaker 2: But again, they should have that data. The states should
Speaker 2: be able.
Speaker 1: To come up with that number that, well, we had
Speaker 1: x number of people that were on the unemployment and
Speaker 1: after the twenty six how many people dropped off those roles?
Speaker 1: They should be able to get that number very easily.
Speaker 1: But when they talk about continuing claims are consistent consistent
Speaker 1: with a gradual rise in the unemployment rate, which was
Speaker 1: at a four year high of four point four in September,
Speaker 1: and they're saying later on that they're expecting that to
Speaker 1: go to four point five when they come up with
Speaker 1: the unemployment numbers. Well, if the number of people that
Speaker 1: are continuing on unemployment has dropped by five percent, wouldn't
Speaker 1: you think that would reflect in the unemployment number in
Speaker 1: total that maybe that four point five should be maybe
Speaker 1: four point zero. It's amazing that you know that when
Speaker 1: the numbers don't add up, and people don't, and these
Speaker 1: reporters don't bother committing journalism and explaining it.
Speaker 2: We're left to figure this out.
Speaker 1: But I don't think, in my opinion, that that unemployment
Speaker 1: number is going to be a lot higher than what
Speaker 1: they had originally said.
Speaker 2: So we'll see how that goes. I just don't know.
Speaker 1: I think that the number is going to be lower
Speaker 1: because we're not seeing any of these massive unemployment numbers
Speaker 1: jump on a weekly basis. And you know, if that
Speaker 1: doesn't go up, then how can the people You know,
Speaker 1: if you have the initial claims, those are going to
Speaker 1: be added to the people that have been on there
Speaker 1: for a while. But if that number of people that
Speaker 1: have been on there for a while drops by five percent,
Speaker 1: then you would think overall that that number is coming down,
Speaker 1: that they've either found new positions or have lost their benefits.
Speaker 1: And I would imagine that somebody getting close to losing
Speaker 1: their benefits would find something in order to make sure
Speaker 1: that they're keeping bread on the table and keeping their
Speaker 1: families well, keeping a roof over their head. Again, when
Speaker 1: we're talking about affordability and we're talking about what's going
Speaker 1: on as far as the economy is concerned one of
Speaker 1: the things we keep hearing about, or people will started
Speaker 1: talking about.
Speaker 2: And isn't it interesting that when.
Speaker 1: Something that people harp on and talk about and keep
Speaker 1: flapping their gums about, especially at the first of the year,
Speaker 1: you know, Trump was in office for a week, and
Speaker 1: they said, I was hearing people saying, well, egg prices
Speaker 1: are still high a week.
Speaker 2: What kind of magic Wand do you think somebody can do?
Speaker 1: If you've got the bird flu, if you've got people
Speaker 1: killing having to kill off the flocks of chickens, they're
Speaker 1: not going to be those dead chickens are not going
Speaker 1: to be laying hey. And so if you've got fewer
Speaker 1: eggs and you got the same demand, those prices are
Speaker 1: going to go up. But egg prices just last week
Speaker 1: at our local store, a large, a large large eggs
Speaker 1: a dozen was a dollar forty nine. Beginning of the year,
Speaker 1: I think that was close to two dollars and ten cents,
Speaker 1: two dollars and thirty cents. Nobody's talking about egg prices
Speaker 1: anymore now, you know. Then all of a sudden they
Speaker 1: jumped on the bandwagon as far as meat prices, Well,
Speaker 1: if you've got the you got the people that are
Speaker 1: the climbingists that say that, you know, beef cattle or
Speaker 1: you know, killing the planet not only with their cow farts,
Speaker 1: but the fact that they're doing too much grazing and
Speaker 1: that there's too much water that's being used by these
Speaker 1: cows in order to this cattle in order to produce,
Speaker 1: and farmers in drought areas or having to buy feedstock
Speaker 1: and buy actual feed for those animals rather than letting
Speaker 1: them go out on the range and graze. Then all
Speaker 1: of a sudden they're having to reduce their flock, their
Speaker 1: herds rather, and those herds are down around the nineteen
Speaker 1: fifty levels. And if you've got twice the population, then
Speaker 1: you're going to have a demand and not much of
Speaker 1: a supply, So of course this price is going to
Speaker 1: go up. USDA lowers cattle price forecast after Tyson plant closes,
Speaker 1: which I thought was kind of a weird headline, but
Speaker 1: when I read into it, it kind of makes a
Speaker 1: little bit more sense. Cattle prices won't rise as much
Speaker 1: as previously expected in twenty twenty six, as the closure
Speaker 1: of a Tyson food plant is seen loosening competition for
Speaker 1: scarce US supplies the Department of agriculture. On December the
Speaker 1: ninth lowered its estimates estimates for cattle prices through twenty
Speaker 1: twenty six, citing reduced slaughter plant capacity early next year
Speaker 1: and recent pricing data. Tyson, the largest meat packers, said
Speaker 1: in the late November statement, So the run in cost
Speaker 1: of those cattle or the cattle being slaughtered are lower,
Speaker 1: which will then be reflected later on in the prices. Also,
Speaker 1: they're upping, and Trump has reduced the tariffs on meat
Speaker 1: coming in from Argentina.
Speaker 2: Brazil, et cetera.
Speaker 1: So those prices should come in and start reducing those
Speaker 1: prices as well.
Speaker 2: But if you're.
Speaker 1: Dealing with the same amount of cattle as nineteen fifty
Speaker 1: and your population has doubled, your meat price is going
Speaker 1: to go up.
Speaker 2: And so the fact that this is being corrected.
Speaker 1: And coming back down as a result of some of
Speaker 1: these adjustments is a good thing. One of the things too,
Speaker 1: that I've been talking about as far as inflation is concerned,
Speaker 1: we're seeing numbers as far as inflation. However, those numbers
Speaker 1: are not reflecting everything in there.
Speaker 2: We're not seeing.
Speaker 1: They keep talking about, well, tarifts are doing this for
Speaker 1: doing that, But when you look behind some of the numbers.
Speaker 1: A lot of that has to do with employment costs.
Speaker 1: People working on the job getting higher pay. And again
Speaker 1: I'm not opposed to people getting more pay. I'm all
Speaker 1: for that, but if that is adding to inflation, then
Speaker 1: people ought to be honest about it and talk about
Speaker 1: it and bring it up and say, yes, inflation is up,
Speaker 1: but also wages are up, which is making things a
Speaker 1: bit more affordable. US employment costs rise at the slowest
Speaker 1: pace since twenty twenty one. Annual growth of the US labor
Speaker 1: costs accelerated in the third quarter to the slowest pace
Speaker 1: in four years, adding to evidence that the softening job
Speaker 1: market is helping limit inflationary pressure. The Employment cost Index
Speaker 1: that are known as ECI, which tracks changes and wages
Speaker 1: and benefits, increase three point five percent in the twelve
Speaker 1: months end in September, according to Bureau of Labors out Wednesday.
Speaker 1: On an adjusted basis, the gauge rows point eight percent
Speaker 1: eight tens of one percent.
Speaker 2: Latest figures highlight the job market.
Speaker 1: And has lost momentum as many employers temper the pace
Speaker 1: of hiring while some reduce head counts.
Speaker 2: But again with the economy being.
Speaker 1: In this no hire, no fire, policy because they don't
Speaker 1: want to have to retrain their employees. Again, going back
Speaker 1: to the pandemic, when people shut down their businesses, trying
Speaker 1: to gear back up once the businesses were allowed to
Speaker 1: open again, trying to find qualified employees, trying to find
Speaker 1: people that were available to come in and fill those
Speaker 1: positions was difficult. So rather than having to go through
Speaker 1: that again, a lot of employers are hanging on to
Speaker 1: the employees that they have and maybe not reducing those
Speaker 1: even though with interest rates and the financing not being
Speaker 1: able to increase the capacity or increase your business, that
Speaker 1: your margins are being cut.
Speaker 2: A little bit.
Speaker 1: But as we've been seeing, there's been an uptick a
Speaker 1: little bit in terms of the production, the amount of
Speaker 1: people that are coming in, the amount of business that
Speaker 1: is being beginning being handled by the current number of employees.
Speaker 1: So when you have a bump in what business you're
Speaker 1: getting an increase in sale, sometimes the amount of employees
Speaker 1: you have can handle up that upward amount before you
Speaker 1: have to begin to start hiring new employees. So a
Speaker 1: lot of good news. Again, I start contrast between what
Speaker 1: the headlines say and what the actual story says. Is
Speaker 1: bringing more true today than in most situations. Well, folks,
Speaker 1: we're up against clock here. Stay tuned for Retie Radio
Speaker 1: at top the hour. I'm Kevin Gordon, America struck In
Speaker 1: Network seven hundred WLW