1 00:00:10,840 --> 00:00:16,640 Speaker 1: This is America's Trucking Network with Kevin Gordon. Welomabor. 2 00:00:17,000 --> 00:00:21,200 Speaker 2: Thanks for tuning in on this Thursday morning. America struck 3 00:00:21,200 --> 00:00:23,840 Speaker 2: a network to show that is the exception to the 4 00:00:23,920 --> 00:00:27,840 Speaker 2: rule that nothing good happens after midnight. We got a 5 00:00:27,840 --> 00:00:30,960 Speaker 2: lot of good economic news yesterday. We got some information 6 00:00:31,040 --> 00:00:34,880 Speaker 2: that we'll be talking about later about January Class eight orders. 7 00:00:35,720 --> 00:00:38,040 Speaker 2: A lot of good positive information that came out. 8 00:00:38,360 --> 00:00:38,519 Speaker 1: Well. 9 00:00:38,560 --> 00:00:41,440 Speaker 2: I saw one headline that referred to it as hump 10 00:00:41,560 --> 00:00:46,760 Speaker 2: Day data dump, because remember, because of the Schumer shutdown, 11 00:00:46,800 --> 00:00:50,479 Speaker 2: the forty three day shutdown that happened from October the 12 00:00:50,600 --> 00:00:53,400 Speaker 2: one until November the twelfth. 13 00:00:53,920 --> 00:00:55,959 Speaker 1: All those forty three days. 14 00:00:55,880 --> 00:00:58,520 Speaker 2: All of the government reports, all the information that was 15 00:00:58,520 --> 00:01:02,160 Speaker 2: supposed to be collected for people in the business world 16 00:01:02,280 --> 00:01:05,000 Speaker 2: as well as you out there in the general public 17 00:01:05,360 --> 00:01:08,039 Speaker 2: in terms of making your plans for the not only 18 00:01:08,080 --> 00:01:10,959 Speaker 2: the end of the year, but forecasting ahead to twenty 19 00:01:11,000 --> 00:01:14,319 Speaker 2: twenty six and what your business is going to be, 20 00:01:14,840 --> 00:01:17,959 Speaker 2: all got delayed as a result of the hissy fit 21 00:01:18,280 --> 00:01:21,679 Speaker 2: from Chuck Schumer and the Democrats. So let's get into 22 00:01:21,680 --> 00:01:24,480 Speaker 2: the numbers first off, right off the bat, talking about 23 00:01:24,520 --> 00:01:26,920 Speaker 2: housing starts and housing building permits. 24 00:01:27,040 --> 00:01:27,800 Speaker 1: It's interesting. 25 00:01:27,840 --> 00:01:30,880 Speaker 2: Again, you go to a search and the stories that 26 00:01:31,000 --> 00:01:35,680 Speaker 2: come up, it's amazing the difference in the different headlines. 27 00:01:35,959 --> 00:01:40,240 Speaker 2: Now now again some of these companies, and it's you know, 28 00:01:40,319 --> 00:01:43,240 Speaker 2: you would expect that if you're going to get an 29 00:01:43,520 --> 00:01:47,720 Speaker 2: update on news, that you would you would see reports 30 00:01:47,760 --> 00:01:53,240 Speaker 2: from an ABC, A, CNN, CNBC, CBS, some of the 31 00:01:53,280 --> 00:01:57,200 Speaker 2: major news networks. But all the time, the only people 32 00:01:57,280 --> 00:02:00,680 Speaker 2: that are talking about this stuff is a bunch of companies. 33 00:02:00,760 --> 00:02:04,360 Speaker 2: I've never really heard much about or know anything about them. 34 00:02:04,800 --> 00:02:08,160 Speaker 2: But you keep doing the searches. Now you'll see Washington, 35 00:02:08,760 --> 00:02:13,560 Speaker 2: Wall Street Journal, you'll see market Watch, you'll see Bloomberg, Okay, 36 00:02:13,639 --> 00:02:19,400 Speaker 2: a lot and Reuters. But for instance, on these housing 37 00:02:19,480 --> 00:02:23,840 Speaker 2: starts headline housing starts rose in November and December. Now again, 38 00:02:24,919 --> 00:02:29,800 Speaker 2: this document dump yesterday Wednesday was two months worth of 39 00:02:29,919 --> 00:02:35,600 Speaker 2: data because that had been compiled and accumulated during the shutdown, 40 00:02:35,680 --> 00:02:38,440 Speaker 2: and they reported two months worth of activity all at 41 00:02:38,440 --> 00:02:42,080 Speaker 2: one time. Now this headline, and it's from a group 42 00:02:42,160 --> 00:02:46,920 Speaker 2: called tip ranks, US housing starts leap to five months 43 00:02:47,000 --> 00:02:49,639 Speaker 2: high as affordability concerns persist. 44 00:02:49,880 --> 00:02:51,760 Speaker 1: Now that's kind of an interesting thing. 45 00:02:53,400 --> 00:02:57,000 Speaker 2: Tree Frog Creative US housing starts rise to a five 46 00:02:57,040 --> 00:03:02,000 Speaker 2: month high on broad increase. According to market Watch, housing 47 00:03:02,040 --> 00:03:05,519 Speaker 2: starts to jump to highest level in five months, showing 48 00:03:05,960 --> 00:03:09,440 Speaker 2: momentum going into twenty twenty six, and US News and 49 00:03:09,440 --> 00:03:15,639 Speaker 2: World Report signal single family housing starts rebound in January, 50 00:03:15,880 --> 00:03:21,400 Speaker 2: building permits decline. Overall, not too bad headlines in terms 51 00:03:21,400 --> 00:03:23,920 Speaker 2: of their summary, but I just thought i'd throw that 52 00:03:24,000 --> 00:03:26,000 Speaker 2: out there. Now when they get to some of the 53 00:03:26,040 --> 00:03:29,840 Speaker 2: other things, some of those headlines get a little wonky, 54 00:03:30,080 --> 00:03:30,760 Speaker 2: so to speak. 55 00:03:31,680 --> 00:03:33,080 Speaker 1: Talking about this. 56 00:03:32,919 --> 00:03:37,400 Speaker 2: Is from US News and World Report, a single family 57 00:03:37,440 --> 00:03:41,600 Speaker 2: housing starts rebound in January, building permits decline. Now this 58 00:03:41,720 --> 00:03:45,880 Speaker 2: is important from the standpoint that single family housing starts 59 00:03:46,360 --> 00:03:48,880 Speaker 2: because once that you know, first of all, let's go 60 00:03:48,920 --> 00:03:52,440 Speaker 2: through the stages. I mean, obviously you know most of this, 61 00:03:53,000 --> 00:03:55,800 Speaker 2: but you start off of the building permit, which gives 62 00:03:55,800 --> 00:03:58,160 Speaker 2: you a permit to go ahead and start constructing on 63 00:03:58,240 --> 00:04:01,920 Speaker 2: a particular piece of property. The importance of that is 64 00:04:01,960 --> 00:04:05,440 Speaker 2: that if that housing permits are up, you know that 65 00:04:05,600 --> 00:04:08,280 Speaker 2: shortly after that you're going to have an increase in 66 00:04:08,360 --> 00:04:11,920 Speaker 2: housing starts. Then after that you're going to not only 67 00:04:11,960 --> 00:04:14,200 Speaker 2: have the starts, but you're going to have all the 68 00:04:14,240 --> 00:04:17,840 Speaker 2: construction materials that go into that house that is going 69 00:04:17,880 --> 00:04:21,800 Speaker 2: to have to be delivered by a truck, all the 70 00:04:22,000 --> 00:04:25,800 Speaker 2: purchases for all of that material, the lumber, the concrete, 71 00:04:26,080 --> 00:04:28,680 Speaker 2: the drywall, the sheet you know, all the stuff that 72 00:04:30,400 --> 00:04:33,800 Speaker 2: insulation stuff on the outside that you see on the 73 00:04:33,920 --> 00:04:36,919 Speaker 2: outside of these homes before they put the siding and 74 00:04:37,000 --> 00:04:38,520 Speaker 2: whatever on them. 75 00:04:38,760 --> 00:04:40,799 Speaker 1: The trust is all of that stuff. 76 00:04:41,120 --> 00:04:44,520 Speaker 2: And then once the house is constructed and nearly finished, 77 00:04:44,680 --> 00:04:47,320 Speaker 2: then of course you have the finishes that go into there, 78 00:04:47,720 --> 00:04:51,200 Speaker 2: all the paint, all the carpet, all the appliances, all 79 00:04:51,240 --> 00:04:54,600 Speaker 2: that kind of stuff, and all the furniture fixtures and 80 00:04:54,640 --> 00:04:58,240 Speaker 2: so on. So you know that later on three four, 81 00:04:58,400 --> 00:05:00,840 Speaker 2: five months, six months later you're going to have an 82 00:05:00,880 --> 00:05:04,080 Speaker 2: increase in that stuff. So again, as far as the 83 00:05:04,080 --> 00:05:08,160 Speaker 2: economy is concerned, these leading economic indicators like building permits, 84 00:05:08,200 --> 00:05:10,880 Speaker 2: housing starts will give you an indication of what things 85 00:05:10,920 --> 00:05:13,480 Speaker 2: are going to happen later on. And of course all 86 00:05:13,520 --> 00:05:17,479 Speaker 2: these building materials from whatever the manufacturer, wherever they're done, 87 00:05:17,600 --> 00:05:20,039 Speaker 2: are going to have to be delivered to some sort 88 00:05:20,080 --> 00:05:23,400 Speaker 2: of a warehousing facility that sells that stuff, and of 89 00:05:23,400 --> 00:05:25,480 Speaker 2: course all that's going to have to be delivered by 90 00:05:25,480 --> 00:05:28,400 Speaker 2: a truck. So the more the higher the building permits, 91 00:05:28,480 --> 00:05:31,640 Speaker 2: the higher the starts. You know that later on you 92 00:05:31,640 --> 00:05:34,000 Speaker 2: guys are going to be shipping a lot of stuff. Now, 93 00:05:34,400 --> 00:05:37,080 Speaker 2: you know, the flatbed industry or flatbed trucks are going 94 00:05:37,160 --> 00:05:39,880 Speaker 2: to be doing very well because that's much used in 95 00:05:39,920 --> 00:05:44,080 Speaker 2: the construction business. But as far as even the panel 96 00:05:44,080 --> 00:05:48,040 Speaker 2: trucks and the trailers, you're going to be hauling the 97 00:05:49,320 --> 00:05:53,320 Speaker 2: durable goods, all of the refrigerators, the appliances, you're going 98 00:05:53,360 --> 00:05:56,560 Speaker 2: to be delivering all of the different items that to 99 00:05:56,640 --> 00:06:00,000 Speaker 2: go into a home, furniture fixtures, all that kind of stuff. 100 00:06:00,400 --> 00:06:04,080 Speaker 2: So these kinds of information, this kind of positive information 101 00:06:04,240 --> 00:06:07,160 Speaker 2: is good for the trucking industry and at least gives 102 00:06:07,200 --> 00:06:10,599 Speaker 2: an idea of what to expect in the coming months. Again, 103 00:06:11,279 --> 00:06:16,359 Speaker 2: single family home family home building rebounded in December, but 104 00:06:16,480 --> 00:06:19,280 Speaker 2: it declined in permits for future construction, pointed to an 105 00:06:19,360 --> 00:06:23,760 Speaker 2: underlying weakness amid higher mortgage rates and material costs. How 106 00:06:23,800 --> 00:06:27,800 Speaker 2: we covered yesterday talking about that one guy that was 107 00:06:27,839 --> 00:06:31,239 Speaker 2: talking about material costs and how he built a house 108 00:06:31,279 --> 00:06:35,520 Speaker 2: back in twenty nineteen and then is building a house 109 00:06:35,600 --> 00:06:38,280 Speaker 2: now and was doing a comparison in terms of what 110 00:06:38,320 --> 00:06:41,400 Speaker 2: the costs going into that are, all the building materials 111 00:06:41,440 --> 00:06:43,760 Speaker 2: and so on. He didn't seem to be too totally 112 00:06:43,800 --> 00:06:46,520 Speaker 2: outraged by that. He said that some things were up, 113 00:06:46,600 --> 00:06:49,320 Speaker 2: some things were down, and that it's just a matter 114 00:06:49,440 --> 00:06:53,200 Speaker 2: of looking at the individual places and being a little 115 00:06:53,240 --> 00:06:55,800 Speaker 2: bit better in terms of where you buy some of 116 00:06:55,320 --> 00:06:58,880 Speaker 2: the items from. So but the big key here in 117 00:06:58,880 --> 00:07:03,119 Speaker 2: this particular sentenced higher mortgage rates. And again I've talked 118 00:07:03,120 --> 00:07:05,400 Speaker 2: about this for a number of months on this program, 119 00:07:05,520 --> 00:07:08,320 Speaker 2: that our interest rates are two damn high compared to 120 00:07:08,360 --> 00:07:09,600 Speaker 2: the rest of the Western world. 121 00:07:09,840 --> 00:07:11,400 Speaker 1: We're talking about, you know, the. 122 00:07:13,040 --> 00:07:19,200 Speaker 2: Interest rates in France, different European countries. Like we did yesterday, 123 00:07:19,480 --> 00:07:22,800 Speaker 2: we are all our mortgage rates are two to three 124 00:07:22,880 --> 00:07:25,520 Speaker 2: percent higher than some of these other countries. 125 00:07:25,720 --> 00:07:28,120 Speaker 1: And of course, how your interest rates. 126 00:07:28,120 --> 00:07:31,360 Speaker 2: We went into the numbers yesterday and talked about at 127 00:07:31,480 --> 00:07:34,280 Speaker 2: a certain percentage interest rate, how much you would be 128 00:07:34,320 --> 00:07:39,120 Speaker 2: saving on your individual mortgage on a monthly basis. And 129 00:07:39,160 --> 00:07:42,800 Speaker 2: that number adds up on the one from the six 130 00:07:42,840 --> 00:07:45,400 Speaker 2: point nine to five percent interest rate that we were 131 00:07:45,440 --> 00:07:49,760 Speaker 2: experiencing last year to down around a three percent rate, 132 00:07:49,960 --> 00:07:53,600 Speaker 2: which we should be near that after the pandemic, and 133 00:07:53,680 --> 00:07:56,760 Speaker 2: after all that sort of stuff, because again, with inflation 134 00:07:56,920 --> 00:07:59,600 Speaker 2: coming down getting a little bit more manageable, the Federal 135 00:07:59,640 --> 00:08:02,360 Speaker 2: Reserve should be cutting that rate. The difference between a 136 00:08:02,400 --> 00:08:05,040 Speaker 2: three percent loan and a six point nine to five 137 00:08:05,120 --> 00:08:07,880 Speaker 2: percent loan on a three hundred and fifty thousand dollars 138 00:08:07,880 --> 00:08:12,360 Speaker 2: home with a twenty percent disc twenty percent down payment 139 00:08:12,960 --> 00:08:15,920 Speaker 2: is five hundred and eighty if memory serves me correct, 140 00:08:16,280 --> 00:08:21,080 Speaker 2: five hundred and eighty three dollars per month less than 141 00:08:21,120 --> 00:08:24,480 Speaker 2: those higher interest rates. Now, interest rates have come down considerably. 142 00:08:24,600 --> 00:08:28,560 Speaker 2: They're down almost a full percentage point down to right 143 00:08:28,600 --> 00:08:31,640 Speaker 2: around six percent from that six point ninety five percent, 144 00:08:31,920 --> 00:08:35,800 Speaker 2: but still six percent is still considered a high interest 145 00:08:35,880 --> 00:08:39,520 Speaker 2: rate compared to when we looked at prior to the pandemic, 146 00:08:39,800 --> 00:08:43,400 Speaker 2: when interest rates were down around three percent. Single family 147 00:08:43,480 --> 00:08:46,000 Speaker 2: housing starts, which account for the bulk of home building, 148 00:08:46,080 --> 00:08:49,640 Speaker 2: rose four point one percent to a seasonally adjusted annual 149 00:08:49,720 --> 00:08:51,840 Speaker 2: rate of eight nine hundred and eighty one thousand units 150 00:08:51,840 --> 00:08:55,520 Speaker 2: in December. Commerce Department Census Bureau IS said on Wednesday, 151 00:08:56,600 --> 00:09:00,000 Speaker 2: starts increase to a pace of four hundred and nine 152 00:09:00,000 --> 00:09:03,560 Speaker 2: one hundred and forty two thousand units in November from 153 00:09:03,640 --> 00:09:08,240 Speaker 2: eight ninety four in October. Again they are talking about 154 00:09:08,400 --> 00:09:11,439 Speaker 2: two months worth of activity, two months worth of information 155 00:09:11,840 --> 00:09:14,920 Speaker 2: coming out on the same day. Reports were delayed by 156 00:09:15,040 --> 00:09:18,000 Speaker 2: last year's Schumer shutdown. Course, that's not in the story 157 00:09:18,080 --> 00:09:21,320 Speaker 2: I had that Schumer shutdown of the federal government. Tariffs 158 00:09:21,360 --> 00:09:24,600 Speaker 2: and imported goods, including lumber and vanity cabinets, have raised 159 00:09:24,640 --> 00:09:28,680 Speaker 2: the prices of materials, while workers shortage amid immigration crackdown 160 00:09:28,920 --> 00:09:33,320 Speaker 2: are contributing to higher building costs constraining activity. Permits for 161 00:09:33,360 --> 00:09:37,720 Speaker 2: future single family home building slipped one point seven percent 162 00:09:37,800 --> 00:09:40,360 Speaker 2: to a range of eight hundred and eighty one units 163 00:09:40,480 --> 00:09:43,360 Speaker 2: eight hundred and eighty one thousand units. They rose to 164 00:09:43,440 --> 00:09:46,480 Speaker 2: a pace again in November. Those numbers were up, but 165 00:09:46,600 --> 00:09:51,880 Speaker 2: again these numbers are up that they're higher than expected. 166 00:09:52,240 --> 00:09:56,080 Speaker 2: The number of permits being down was higher than what 167 00:09:56,160 --> 00:09:58,800 Speaker 2: the experts had expected. We'll talk a little bit more 168 00:09:58,800 --> 00:10:02,160 Speaker 2: about this coming up. Kevin Gordon, America's truck In Network 169 00:10:02,440 --> 00:10:10,960 Speaker 2: seven hundred WLW. I'm Kevin Gordon, America's Trucking Network seven 170 00:10:11,080 --> 00:10:16,520 Speaker 2: hundred WLW. Continuing this conversation about single family housing starts 171 00:10:16,559 --> 00:10:20,840 Speaker 2: and rebounding. In January, building permits decline a little bit, 172 00:10:21,120 --> 00:10:24,840 Speaker 2: but not a you know, like bottom falling out kind 173 00:10:24,840 --> 00:10:29,240 Speaker 2: of numbers, but decreased a little bit, not a significant amount, 174 00:10:29,559 --> 00:10:32,400 Speaker 2: just right around I think one point four percent. And 175 00:10:32,440 --> 00:10:35,760 Speaker 2: of course, then we talked about affordability like we did yesterday, 176 00:10:35,960 --> 00:10:40,160 Speaker 2: talking about how much your how much your mortgage payment 177 00:10:40,160 --> 00:10:43,439 Speaker 2: would be at different rates in terms of interest. If 178 00:10:43,440 --> 00:10:45,880 Speaker 2: you're at six point nine five percent, that's going to 179 00:10:45,920 --> 00:10:48,800 Speaker 2: be a hell of a lot higher mortgage payment than 180 00:10:48,840 --> 00:10:53,040 Speaker 2: it would be at three percent, which was right around 181 00:10:53,080 --> 00:10:57,280 Speaker 2: the pre pandemic stages, which in my opinion, is where 182 00:10:57,320 --> 00:11:00,240 Speaker 2: we should be now. So again, if you miss the 183 00:11:00,320 --> 00:11:02,800 Speaker 2: previous segment or missed our show yesterday, make sure you 184 00:11:02,840 --> 00:11:05,280 Speaker 2: hit up that iHeartRadio app, of course, brought to you 185 00:11:05,320 --> 00:11:08,400 Speaker 2: by our friends at Rush Truck Centers. Now, going back 186 00:11:08,480 --> 00:11:11,280 Speaker 2: digging more into this number I mentioned in here, home 187 00:11:11,320 --> 00:11:16,920 Speaker 2: builder sentiment, which we talked about yesterday, deteriorated further in February. However, 188 00:11:17,200 --> 00:11:20,200 Speaker 2: when you look at these numbers, if the building permits 189 00:11:20,200 --> 00:11:25,360 Speaker 2: are up considered compared to last year, if housing starts 190 00:11:25,400 --> 00:11:28,360 Speaker 2: are up, you would think that the homebuilders would be 191 00:11:28,480 --> 00:11:32,559 Speaker 2: a little bit better frame of mind. Now, we talked 192 00:11:32,600 --> 00:11:36,679 Speaker 2: about yesterday. Again, one of the things that's affecting the 193 00:11:36,720 --> 00:11:40,119 Speaker 2: homebuilders sentiment was the fact that some of those surveys 194 00:11:40,320 --> 00:11:43,760 Speaker 2: and the numbers that were collected from them was before 195 00:11:44,160 --> 00:11:48,880 Speaker 2: the before Freddie Mack and Fannie May bought those treasury 196 00:11:48,920 --> 00:11:52,720 Speaker 2: bills to about two hundred billion dollars, which then lowered 197 00:11:52,760 --> 00:11:56,679 Speaker 2: interest rates considerably during that period of time, and that 198 00:11:56,720 --> 00:11:59,560 Speaker 2: hadn't been factored in. And of course they're not seeing 199 00:11:59,720 --> 00:12:02,800 Speaker 2: at that point with that survey that we talked about yesterday, 200 00:12:02,960 --> 00:12:06,600 Speaker 2: they're not seeing building permits because those numbers were delayed 201 00:12:06,880 --> 00:12:09,920 Speaker 2: because of the consumer shut down. That would have probably 202 00:12:09,960 --> 00:12:12,440 Speaker 2: given them a little bit more of a boost because 203 00:12:12,520 --> 00:12:16,160 Speaker 2: the November numbers that were missed and delayed until now 204 00:12:16,360 --> 00:12:20,079 Speaker 2: because of that shutdown were showing positive signs. So if 205 00:12:20,080 --> 00:12:23,760 Speaker 2: they have positive signs, if they have a better optimism 206 00:12:23,800 --> 00:12:28,240 Speaker 2: going into the year. And again, some of the dismay 207 00:12:28,320 --> 00:12:32,800 Speaker 2: with people would have been a result of the Democrats 208 00:12:33,400 --> 00:12:37,280 Speaker 2: choosing to shut down the government rather than compromising and 209 00:12:37,400 --> 00:12:39,720 Speaker 2: deal with things that are good for the American public, 210 00:12:39,960 --> 00:12:42,560 Speaker 2: as opposed to the hissy fit that they wanted to 211 00:12:42,559 --> 00:12:48,760 Speaker 2: throw having to do with a temporary payment subsidy that 212 00:12:49,000 --> 00:12:52,240 Speaker 2: was supposed to be ended a couple of years ago 213 00:12:52,760 --> 00:12:58,240 Speaker 2: during after the pandemic. Pandemic, i should say, and because 214 00:12:58,360 --> 00:13:01,720 Speaker 2: that subsidy was there once the subsidies on there, the 215 00:13:01,760 --> 00:13:02,760 Speaker 2: Democrats think. 216 00:13:02,640 --> 00:13:04,360 Speaker 1: That subsidies should be there forever. 217 00:13:04,720 --> 00:13:08,520 Speaker 2: And what's interesting is that they were clamoring about how 218 00:13:08,600 --> 00:13:10,800 Speaker 2: insurance costs were going to go through the roof and 219 00:13:10,880 --> 00:13:13,160 Speaker 2: people were going to be kicked off and people were 220 00:13:13,160 --> 00:13:14,400 Speaker 2: going to be suffering and all that. 221 00:13:14,840 --> 00:13:17,800 Speaker 1: None of that has happened because they caved. 222 00:13:18,040 --> 00:13:20,560 Speaker 2: They didn't get what they wanted after forty three days, 223 00:13:20,559 --> 00:13:23,360 Speaker 2: so that was a waste of time. And so we 224 00:13:23,400 --> 00:13:26,480 Speaker 2: haven't heard anybody clamoring, and there hasn't been this big 225 00:13:26,520 --> 00:13:32,800 Speaker 2: outswell of people clamoring over the normal insurance rates of 226 00:13:32,840 --> 00:13:35,880 Speaker 2: what has gone in as far as the Obamacare or 227 00:13:35,920 --> 00:13:40,040 Speaker 2: some of these other policies. Now, again, there should be 228 00:13:40,080 --> 00:13:44,360 Speaker 2: something done as far as hospital bills, doctor bills, prescription 229 00:13:44,520 --> 00:13:47,160 Speaker 2: drugs and that type of thing to lower those costs, 230 00:13:47,240 --> 00:13:50,680 Speaker 2: but that's for another day, and that's something that Congress 231 00:13:50,720 --> 00:13:53,079 Speaker 2: should be working on, other than some of the crap 232 00:13:53,160 --> 00:13:56,360 Speaker 2: that they're working on up there in DC. Just my opinion, 233 00:13:56,400 --> 00:14:01,240 Speaker 2: I should say, Now, Trump administration has implemented a raft 234 00:14:01,280 --> 00:14:06,319 Speaker 2: of measures, including purchases of mortgage backed insurance security mortgage 235 00:14:06,400 --> 00:14:11,960 Speaker 2: backed securities, and banning institutional investors from buying single family homes. 236 00:14:12,280 --> 00:14:15,000 Speaker 2: Back during the housing crisis of two thousand and eight, 237 00:14:15,400 --> 00:14:18,600 Speaker 2: when the bottom fell out of the housing market, a 238 00:14:18,640 --> 00:14:22,360 Speaker 2: lot of investors, a lot of corporations decided that, hey, 239 00:14:22,400 --> 00:14:26,680 Speaker 2: this is an opportunity. People can't afford mortgages. People are, 240 00:14:26,880 --> 00:14:31,560 Speaker 2: you know, because of either credit rating or whatever, because 241 00:14:31,760 --> 00:14:34,840 Speaker 2: the housing market has collapsed. You may recall if you 242 00:14:34,920 --> 00:14:37,120 Speaker 2: had a home back then, the value of your home 243 00:14:37,200 --> 00:14:41,040 Speaker 2: probably fell on average around the country about forty percent. 244 00:14:41,400 --> 00:14:43,160 Speaker 2: There were a lot of people that were underwater, that 245 00:14:43,200 --> 00:14:45,840 Speaker 2: couldn't keep up with their payments, so they wound up 246 00:14:45,880 --> 00:14:49,800 Speaker 2: losing their homes, they wound up falling into bankruptcy. But 247 00:14:49,920 --> 00:14:52,120 Speaker 2: a lot of those were people that should have been 248 00:14:52,760 --> 00:14:56,560 Speaker 2: that should not have gotten these subprime loans if the 249 00:14:56,600 --> 00:15:00,520 Speaker 2: federal regulators had been there and paid attention to what 250 00:15:00,800 --> 00:15:04,920 Speaker 2: actual cash assets these people had in order to support 251 00:15:04,960 --> 00:15:07,480 Speaker 2: this mortgage. Now, we kept being told by the people 252 00:15:07,520 --> 00:15:10,520 Speaker 2: back then, we got your back. Everything's cool, don't worry 253 00:15:10,520 --> 00:15:12,960 Speaker 2: about it. We got everything under control. And when the 254 00:15:13,120 --> 00:15:15,120 Speaker 2: market fell out of the bottom fell out of the 255 00:15:15,120 --> 00:15:18,000 Speaker 2: housing market. Back in two thousand and eight, we saw 256 00:15:18,040 --> 00:15:21,520 Speaker 2: that forty percent decrease in terms of what people's value 257 00:15:21,520 --> 00:15:23,800 Speaker 2: on their homes were. A lot of people lost their home, 258 00:15:23,880 --> 00:15:26,440 Speaker 2: a lot of people hung onto their homes. But housing 259 00:15:26,480 --> 00:15:30,840 Speaker 2: market or housing prices didn't start increasing again until somewhere 260 00:15:30,840 --> 00:15:33,360 Speaker 2: around twenty ten, and really didn't get all the way 261 00:15:33,400 --> 00:15:36,120 Speaker 2: back until about twenty twelve, so about a four year 262 00:15:36,160 --> 00:15:38,720 Speaker 2: period of time there. But during that period of time, 263 00:15:38,880 --> 00:15:44,200 Speaker 2: when people mortgage and they started looking at mortgage affordability 264 00:15:44,360 --> 00:15:47,560 Speaker 2: and qualifications a lot more than what they had been 265 00:15:47,640 --> 00:15:50,560 Speaker 2: in the previous couple of years or a few years, 266 00:15:50,760 --> 00:15:53,960 Speaker 2: it got harder to qualify for a loan, and so 267 00:15:54,040 --> 00:15:56,600 Speaker 2: these companies said, well, you know what, people are still 268 00:15:56,600 --> 00:15:58,920 Speaker 2: going to have to have a place to live, and 269 00:15:58,960 --> 00:16:01,480 Speaker 2: so they jumped in bought some of these houses that 270 00:16:01,520 --> 00:16:04,760 Speaker 2: were foreclosed on or some other houses that were available, 271 00:16:05,040 --> 00:16:07,760 Speaker 2: and then you started seeing rench jacking up to the 272 00:16:07,800 --> 00:16:11,280 Speaker 2: point where somebody would be doing some of the numbers 273 00:16:11,320 --> 00:16:13,920 Speaker 2: I was looking at back then, and even today, if 274 00:16:13,960 --> 00:16:16,800 Speaker 2: you could qualify for a loan on a particular house, 275 00:16:16,960 --> 00:16:20,320 Speaker 2: you'd be probably paying around eleven hundred to twelve hundred 276 00:16:20,320 --> 00:16:23,160 Speaker 2: dollars on that home. And we're talking about smaller homes, 277 00:16:23,200 --> 00:16:25,920 Speaker 2: but on some of these houses you would be renting 278 00:16:26,040 --> 00:16:28,880 Speaker 2: because you can't afford you can't qualify for a loan. 279 00:16:29,120 --> 00:16:32,440 Speaker 2: Some of these people are paying five hundred and sixty 280 00:16:32,440 --> 00:16:36,440 Speaker 2: seven even up to one thousand dollars more for the 281 00:16:36,600 --> 00:16:39,400 Speaker 2: rent on that home than they would if they were 282 00:16:39,480 --> 00:16:41,800 Speaker 2: if they were buying the home and the mortgage if 283 00:16:41,800 --> 00:16:44,560 Speaker 2: they could qualify for a mortgage. And so when these 284 00:16:44,640 --> 00:16:46,880 Speaker 2: corporations came in and jacked that up, as they call 285 00:16:47,040 --> 00:16:53,720 Speaker 2: institutional investors, that raised the rate in terms of rental 286 00:16:53,880 --> 00:16:57,480 Speaker 2: costs and affected the economy. Also, when you have an 287 00:16:57,480 --> 00:17:01,760 Speaker 2: influx anywhere from ten million invasion, if you will, between 288 00:17:01,800 --> 00:17:04,720 Speaker 2: ten and fifteen, maybe even as many as twenty million 289 00:17:05,040 --> 00:17:09,439 Speaker 2: people flooding into the United States during the Biden years, 290 00:17:10,040 --> 00:17:11,720 Speaker 2: those people are going to have to have a place 291 00:17:11,760 --> 00:17:14,080 Speaker 2: to live. And so there was a lot of people 292 00:17:14,119 --> 00:17:18,040 Speaker 2: that were going around buying houses in order to rent 293 00:17:18,040 --> 00:17:21,920 Speaker 2: those two illegal immigrants and so on. And again, if 294 00:17:21,920 --> 00:17:24,560 Speaker 2: you've got a bunch of people coming in, you're going 295 00:17:24,600 --> 00:17:27,560 Speaker 2: to have you're not building any more houses, so you're 296 00:17:27,560 --> 00:17:29,959 Speaker 2: going to have a shortage of houses, So those rents 297 00:17:30,000 --> 00:17:33,480 Speaker 2: and those mortgage prices are going to go up because 298 00:17:33,520 --> 00:17:36,800 Speaker 2: there's more people looking at that with a short supply, 299 00:17:36,880 --> 00:17:39,000 Speaker 2: and it's just a matter of supply and demand. If 300 00:17:39,000 --> 00:17:41,960 Speaker 2: you've got low supply and you've got high demand, you're 301 00:17:41,960 --> 00:17:44,240 Speaker 2: going to have higher prices. You got low demand and 302 00:17:44,280 --> 00:17:46,960 Speaker 2: a big supply, those prices. 303 00:17:46,640 --> 00:17:47,360 Speaker 1: Are going to come down. 304 00:17:47,440 --> 00:17:50,360 Speaker 2: So again some of the things that the Trump administration 305 00:17:50,400 --> 00:17:53,679 Speaker 2: have put into place banning institutional investors from buying single 306 00:17:53,680 --> 00:17:58,160 Speaker 2: homes to improve of housing affordability. Though mortgage rates have eased, 307 00:17:58,880 --> 00:18:02,200 Speaker 2: progress has stalled as worries over government debt have kept 308 00:18:02,240 --> 00:18:06,159 Speaker 2: the treasury yields elevated, which is not quite true anymore, 309 00:18:06,520 --> 00:18:09,080 Speaker 2: because we're starting to see, as we talked about yesterday, 310 00:18:09,400 --> 00:18:12,320 Speaker 2: the advantages were seeing some of the fruits of the 311 00:18:12,440 --> 00:18:17,199 Speaker 2: tariffs that are coming in and paying down seventeen percent lower. 312 00:18:17,440 --> 00:18:21,480 Speaker 2: The national debt has fallen seventeen percent from what it 313 00:18:21,560 --> 00:18:23,439 Speaker 2: was at the beginning of the year, and that is 314 00:18:23,480 --> 00:18:26,400 Speaker 2: all good news. And we covered that yesterday again, so 315 00:18:26,800 --> 00:18:29,400 Speaker 2: check that check that podcast out. 316 00:18:29,200 --> 00:18:32,000 Speaker 1: If you want. And then. 317 00:18:33,320 --> 00:18:35,919 Speaker 2: In the end of this particular story, they said the 318 00:18:35,960 --> 00:18:39,280 Speaker 2: economy is forecast to have grown at three percent annualize 319 00:18:39,520 --> 00:18:43,000 Speaker 2: rate last quarter, after expanding the four point four percent 320 00:18:43,160 --> 00:18:46,720 Speaker 2: rate pace in July and September from the July to 321 00:18:46,800 --> 00:18:51,160 Speaker 2: September quarter during that period of time. I still think 322 00:18:51,240 --> 00:18:54,520 Speaker 2: that number of three percent is wrong. You remember that 323 00:18:54,600 --> 00:18:57,480 Speaker 2: at the beginning of what was it the towards the 324 00:18:57,560 --> 00:19:00,960 Speaker 2: end of December, the Federal Reserve out of Atlanta was 325 00:19:00,960 --> 00:19:06,080 Speaker 2: predicting that the GDP was for the fourth quarter was 326 00:19:06,119 --> 00:19:09,640 Speaker 2: going to be right around five point four percent. They 327 00:19:09,760 --> 00:19:13,800 Speaker 2: lowered that down to three point seven percent. I think 328 00:19:13,880 --> 00:19:16,439 Speaker 2: the beginning of last week, and now some people are 329 00:19:16,440 --> 00:19:18,600 Speaker 2: saying it could be as low as three percent. But 330 00:19:18,720 --> 00:19:22,360 Speaker 2: let's not forget the impact of the Schumer shutdown and 331 00:19:22,400 --> 00:19:26,560 Speaker 2: the billions of dollars of paychecks that were delayed. Will 332 00:19:26,600 --> 00:19:29,760 Speaker 2: pick this up. I'm Kevin Gordon, America's Trucking Network seven 333 00:19:29,840 --> 00:19:38,800 Speaker 2: hundred w L seven hundred WLW. I'm Kevin Gordon. This 334 00:19:38,920 --> 00:19:41,320 Speaker 2: is America's struck A network. I was mentioning in the 335 00:19:41,359 --> 00:19:45,440 Speaker 2: previous segment, we're talking about the GDP that they're predicting 336 00:19:45,480 --> 00:19:48,320 Speaker 2: for Friday. I still think that number is going to 337 00:19:48,400 --> 00:19:51,480 Speaker 2: come in very close to five percent. Some of these 338 00:19:51,520 --> 00:19:55,160 Speaker 2: so called experts are saying three percent when they had 339 00:19:55,200 --> 00:19:58,399 Speaker 2: been predicting three point seven and then even earlier at 340 00:19:58,440 --> 00:20:01,760 Speaker 2: five point four percent. There was some discussion around that 341 00:20:01,840 --> 00:20:04,600 Speaker 2: period of time as to what the effect of the 342 00:20:04,640 --> 00:20:08,000 Speaker 2: Schumer shutdown would have, and some people are estimating that 343 00:20:08,000 --> 00:20:11,440 Speaker 2: that would knock off somewhere between one percent to one 344 00:20:11,480 --> 00:20:15,240 Speaker 2: and a half percent off the GDP for the fourth quarter. 345 00:20:15,720 --> 00:20:18,080 Speaker 2: And again I still think it's going to come in 346 00:20:18,119 --> 00:20:21,040 Speaker 2: around five we'll see who's right on Friday. Of course, 347 00:20:21,080 --> 00:20:23,439 Speaker 2: we won't be able to talk about that till Tuesday morning, 348 00:20:23,760 --> 00:20:27,720 Speaker 2: because that number will come in after our show Friday morning, 349 00:20:28,200 --> 00:20:31,400 Speaker 2: somewhere around nine o'clock that morning on Friday. 350 00:20:31,520 --> 00:20:33,000 Speaker 1: But we'll see that on Tuesday. 351 00:20:33,200 --> 00:20:36,920 Speaker 2: But again, when you look at what got pulled and 352 00:20:37,040 --> 00:20:40,600 Speaker 2: got yanked out of the economy by Chuck Schumer and 353 00:20:40,640 --> 00:20:45,000 Speaker 2: the Democrats throwing that hissy fit, having the government a 354 00:20:45,240 --> 00:20:49,760 Speaker 2: record number of days of a government shutdown, forty three 355 00:20:50,240 --> 00:20:53,680 Speaker 2: days that the government was shut down, and just kind 356 00:20:53,680 --> 00:20:55,880 Speaker 2: of give you an indication of what was lost during 357 00:20:55,920 --> 00:20:59,120 Speaker 2: that period of time. At least six hundred and seventy 358 00:20:59,280 --> 00:21:04,719 Speaker 2: thousand federal employees were furloughed, while roughly seven hundred and 359 00:21:05,040 --> 00:21:08,639 Speaker 2: thirty thousand continued to work without pay. 360 00:21:09,359 --> 00:21:12,600 Speaker 1: So combined, you've got. 361 00:21:13,760 --> 00:21:19,560 Speaker 2: One point four million people that weren't getting paid right 362 00:21:20,280 --> 00:21:25,560 Speaker 2: from October first until November the twelfth, the busiest day, 363 00:21:25,960 --> 00:21:30,159 Speaker 2: the busiest quarter for the holidays, Thanksgiving, all of the 364 00:21:30,200 --> 00:21:34,600 Speaker 2: stuff around the Halloween and getting ready for Thanksgiving and 365 00:21:34,680 --> 00:21:38,840 Speaker 2: people doing their beginning their Christmas shopping. All of that paychecks, 366 00:21:39,000 --> 00:21:44,040 Speaker 2: those paychecks. One point four million people were going without 367 00:21:44,080 --> 00:21:46,840 Speaker 2: a paycheck during that period of time. The first pay 368 00:21:46,920 --> 00:21:49,639 Speaker 2: day to is zero pay for some federal workers occurred 369 00:21:49,640 --> 00:21:53,520 Speaker 2: on October the twenty fourth. Practically one point three million 370 00:21:53,680 --> 00:21:56,879 Speaker 2: active duty personnel more than seven hundred and fifty thousand 371 00:21:57,000 --> 00:22:02,600 Speaker 2: National Guarden Reserve members were required to and most were paid, 372 00:22:03,080 --> 00:22:06,240 Speaker 2: and most were paid during the shutdown. Some of those 373 00:22:06,320 --> 00:22:08,720 Speaker 2: were able to be paid because of other budgets, but 374 00:22:08,840 --> 00:22:12,920 Speaker 2: one point four million went without paychecks. November fourteenth would 375 00:22:12,920 --> 00:22:15,600 Speaker 2: have been the first time in history that members of 376 00:22:15,640 --> 00:22:19,320 Speaker 2: all military branches missed a paycheck due to a government shutdown. 377 00:22:19,520 --> 00:22:24,040 Speaker 2: Trump administration reallocated funds to pay active duty troops. Now 378 00:22:24,119 --> 00:22:28,320 Speaker 2: recall that there was a a philanthropist that actually kicked 379 00:22:28,320 --> 00:22:31,960 Speaker 2: in one point three million dollars in order to cover 380 00:22:32,280 --> 00:22:32,879 Speaker 2: what was at. 381 00:22:32,760 --> 00:22:33,720 Speaker 1: One point three million. 382 00:22:33,760 --> 00:22:37,560 Speaker 2: I believe that covered the paychecks for the military over 383 00:22:37,640 --> 00:22:41,560 Speaker 2: one of the paycheck periods that occurred, and so that 384 00:22:41,760 --> 00:22:44,080 Speaker 2: was offset, and then of course reallocating some of these 385 00:22:44,080 --> 00:22:46,480 Speaker 2: funds and want to make sure that our military was paid. 386 00:22:46,680 --> 00:22:50,119 Speaker 2: By the time appropriations were passed November the twelfth, nearly 387 00:22:50,359 --> 00:22:55,719 Speaker 2: three million paychecks had been withheld from government federal and 388 00:22:55,800 --> 00:23:03,959 Speaker 2: civilian employees, representing fourteen billion with ab out of the economy. 389 00:23:04,440 --> 00:23:08,159 Speaker 2: So all that fourteen billion dollars of people missing a 390 00:23:08,160 --> 00:23:12,760 Speaker 2: paycheck was not in that GDP number in the fourth quarter. 391 00:23:13,080 --> 00:23:16,200 Speaker 2: So that is going to have a tremendous effect on 392 00:23:16,240 --> 00:23:19,160 Speaker 2: what the GDP numbers are. I'm still thinking that it's 393 00:23:19,200 --> 00:23:21,720 Speaker 2: going to be around five percent, but let's take into 394 00:23:21,760 --> 00:23:26,119 Speaker 2: consideration the fact that without this government shutdown, that number 395 00:23:26,160 --> 00:23:29,359 Speaker 2: would be whatever that number is on Friday, should have 396 00:23:29,440 --> 00:23:32,439 Speaker 2: been maybe one percent or one and a half percent 397 00:23:32,800 --> 00:23:36,800 Speaker 2: higher than what had actually come in. So again, thank 398 00:23:36,840 --> 00:23:41,159 Speaker 2: you Chuck Schumer and Democrats. Again, there was a story 399 00:23:41,240 --> 00:23:43,520 Speaker 2: we were talking about the story that had as far 400 00:23:43,560 --> 00:23:46,800 Speaker 2: as housing starts and concerns that was from US News 401 00:23:46,800 --> 00:23:50,359 Speaker 2: and World Report picking up some of the topics that 402 00:23:50,359 --> 00:23:53,720 Speaker 2: were talked about Marcowatch dot com on this The highest 403 00:23:53,800 --> 00:23:56,880 Speaker 2: let me see, construction of new US homes was six 404 00:23:56,960 --> 00:24:00,720 Speaker 2: point two percent in December. That's the highest level since July. 405 00:24:01,240 --> 00:24:04,960 Speaker 2: Economists and Wall Street had expected five point one percent 406 00:24:05,080 --> 00:24:08,440 Speaker 2: rise in the housing starts. The government released two months 407 00:24:08,480 --> 00:24:11,000 Speaker 2: of construction data. As we talked about in one of 408 00:24:11,000 --> 00:24:14,280 Speaker 2: the other pre I think the first segment that these 409 00:24:14,400 --> 00:24:18,240 Speaker 2: numbers were delayed by two by you know well, government 410 00:24:18,320 --> 00:24:20,919 Speaker 2: released two months worth of construction data that had been 411 00:24:20,960 --> 00:24:23,840 Speaker 2: delayed by the lengthy government shutdown in the fall. The 412 00:24:23,920 --> 00:24:27,439 Speaker 2: increase in home construction in November December was concentrated in 413 00:24:27,480 --> 00:24:31,040 Speaker 2: single family starts. Lower mortgage rates have played a role 414 00:24:31,320 --> 00:24:34,359 Speaker 2: that could continue this year. Building permits a sign of 415 00:24:34,400 --> 00:24:38,600 Speaker 2: future construction, according to this article, rose four point three 416 00:24:38,640 --> 00:24:41,920 Speaker 2: percent to one point four million, or the equivalent of 417 00:24:42,000 --> 00:24:47,040 Speaker 2: one point four million rate of homes. If those future 418 00:24:47,040 --> 00:24:51,120 Speaker 2: construction rose four point three which which accounted for one 419 00:24:51,160 --> 00:24:56,000 Speaker 2: point five one point four to five million units being constructed. 420 00:24:56,119 --> 00:24:59,960 Speaker 2: That's why I'm trying to spit out there. According to 421 00:25:00,119 --> 00:25:04,560 Speaker 2: Ben Ayers, the consistent decline and mortgage rates should support 422 00:25:04,760 --> 00:25:09,000 Speaker 2: home construction activity over twenty twenty six, with single family 423 00:25:09,040 --> 00:25:13,440 Speaker 2: housing starts projected to shift into a faster gear by 424 00:25:13,480 --> 00:25:16,320 Speaker 2: mid twenty twenty six. Now, again, this is going to 425 00:25:16,320 --> 00:25:19,560 Speaker 2: be great contruct for the trucking industry because all of 426 00:25:19,560 --> 00:25:22,720 Speaker 2: the stuff that call the components on the construction materials 427 00:25:22,840 --> 00:25:24,960 Speaker 2: to all of the stuff that moved into a house 428 00:25:25,200 --> 00:25:29,600 Speaker 2: as far as furniture fixtures, et cetera, is going to 429 00:25:29,640 --> 00:25:32,640 Speaker 2: have to be delivered by a truck. So again that's 430 00:25:32,760 --> 00:25:38,040 Speaker 2: very optimistic. According to Samuel tom Tombs, a chief US 431 00:25:38,119 --> 00:25:43,040 Speaker 2: economists of Pantheon Macroeconomics. Now let me preface this. They're 432 00:25:43,080 --> 00:25:45,639 Speaker 2: talking through this article about some of the positive nature 433 00:25:45,680 --> 00:25:47,560 Speaker 2: and some of the things that people are thinking about 434 00:25:47,920 --> 00:25:50,840 Speaker 2: in terms of looking forward to twenty twenty six. As 435 00:25:50,840 --> 00:25:53,520 Speaker 2: far as the economy, the headline on this or the 436 00:25:53,560 --> 00:25:58,800 Speaker 2: sub headline, other economists are more skeptical. Samuel Toombs, chief 437 00:25:59,000 --> 00:26:04,200 Speaker 2: US economist anteon Macroeconomics. We've quoted him before, and quite honestly, 438 00:26:04,760 --> 00:26:06,679 Speaker 2: I'm not sure that this guy has them all, but 439 00:26:06,720 --> 00:26:08,920 Speaker 2: again this is what he has to say. In more 440 00:26:08,920 --> 00:26:12,560 Speaker 2: immediate future, the home building sector faces headwinds from prior 441 00:26:12,760 --> 00:26:18,200 Speaker 2: over construction over construction from where still higher mortgage rates, 442 00:26:18,200 --> 00:26:21,199 Speaker 2: which I agree with, and much slower growth in population. 443 00:26:21,920 --> 00:26:25,720 Speaker 2: Robert Deets, chief economists with National Association of Homebuilders, said 444 00:26:25,760 --> 00:26:29,600 Speaker 2: builders are also facing persistent labor shortages resulting from the 445 00:26:29,600 --> 00:26:33,880 Speaker 2: Trump administration crackdown on immigration. The government reported nearly three 446 00:26:33,920 --> 00:26:38,600 Speaker 2: hundred thousand job openings in the construction industry in December. Again, 447 00:26:39,040 --> 00:26:44,080 Speaker 2: this is an indication that because of illegal immigration, because 448 00:26:44,119 --> 00:26:48,840 Speaker 2: of opening the floodgates there, instead of actually having people 449 00:26:49,359 --> 00:26:52,800 Speaker 2: in the trades and concentrating on the trades, of having 450 00:26:52,840 --> 00:26:57,800 Speaker 2: people geared towards that they chose for cheaper labor, which. 451 00:26:57,600 --> 00:27:00,560 Speaker 1: Again, is that good for the United States? Is it 452 00:27:00,680 --> 00:27:02,360 Speaker 1: good for those people that. 453 00:27:02,400 --> 00:27:05,320 Speaker 2: You bring them in and pay them less than what 454 00:27:05,440 --> 00:27:10,120 Speaker 2: they should be paid in order to handle those particular jobs. 455 00:27:10,160 --> 00:27:13,840 Speaker 2: And could that not be offset by other things? I 456 00:27:13,920 --> 00:27:19,320 Speaker 2: remember back during the shoot, I'm old enough to remember 457 00:27:19,680 --> 00:27:23,960 Speaker 2: back when they had the Caesar Chavez out there in 458 00:27:24,040 --> 00:27:28,280 Speaker 2: California trying to organize and get into the union the 459 00:27:28,320 --> 00:27:31,720 Speaker 2: farm workers out there and trying to get them decent wages. 460 00:27:32,240 --> 00:27:38,000 Speaker 2: He was an opponent of illegal immigration. Believe it or not, 461 00:27:38,520 --> 00:27:42,000 Speaker 2: they were indicating at that time they were more interested 462 00:27:42,040 --> 00:27:46,240 Speaker 2: in bringing in seasonal workers to pick the crops, do 463 00:27:46,480 --> 00:27:49,800 Speaker 2: the work, and then go back to wherever they came from, 464 00:27:50,000 --> 00:27:53,840 Speaker 2: which generally was Mexico. He was not into this permanent 465 00:27:54,119 --> 00:27:58,280 Speaker 2: labor force being there year after year and being subsidized 466 00:27:58,600 --> 00:28:02,159 Speaker 2: by the taxpayers. Again, there are things that need to 467 00:28:02,200 --> 00:28:05,720 Speaker 2: be done in terms of immigration, some of these visas 468 00:28:05,720 --> 00:28:08,600 Speaker 2: that need to be done on temporary work status. If 469 00:28:08,640 --> 00:28:12,600 Speaker 2: somebody has a trade skill and that they can do 470 00:28:12,840 --> 00:28:16,199 Speaker 2: construction work, then they should be allowed to stay. They 471 00:28:16,240 --> 00:28:18,760 Speaker 2: should be allowed to be in those positions and they 472 00:28:18,800 --> 00:28:22,640 Speaker 2: shouldn't have to be worrying about being deported because they could. 473 00:28:22,880 --> 00:28:25,840 Speaker 2: There would be a way of bringing them in with 474 00:28:26,000 --> 00:28:30,840 Speaker 2: certain permits and working permits rather than dependent upon illegal 475 00:28:31,320 --> 00:28:35,359 Speaker 2: aliens and people that can be taken advantage of by 476 00:28:35,760 --> 00:28:40,080 Speaker 2: certain unscrupulous people out there that will pay these people 477 00:28:40,200 --> 00:28:43,200 Speaker 2: far less than what those jobs are worth. And again 478 00:28:43,480 --> 00:28:46,360 Speaker 2: that is something that should be looked at. Bank regulators 479 00:28:46,400 --> 00:28:49,280 Speaker 2: are also taking steps to help the housing market. The 480 00:28:49,480 --> 00:28:53,880 Speaker 2: Reserve Vice Chairman for Supervision Michelle Bowman said the FED 481 00:28:54,000 --> 00:28:56,600 Speaker 2: will try to make it easier for banks to offer 482 00:28:57,160 --> 00:29:01,600 Speaker 2: more home mortgages. The FED plans to rewrite rules put 483 00:29:01,640 --> 00:29:04,440 Speaker 2: in place after the financial crisis of two thousand and 484 00:29:04,480 --> 00:29:08,320 Speaker 2: eight that we talked about earlier that effectively moved much 485 00:29:08,360 --> 00:29:12,480 Speaker 2: of the business of mortgage origination to non banks. So 486 00:29:12,640 --> 00:29:16,280 Speaker 2: pulling that back into the banks would lower those mortgage 487 00:29:16,400 --> 00:29:19,200 Speaker 2: rates and make it a lot easier and more affordable 488 00:29:19,240 --> 00:29:20,560 Speaker 2: for people to own a home. 489 00:29:22,200 --> 00:29:23,600 Speaker 1: So we'll pick this up. 490 00:29:23,640 --> 00:29:26,240 Speaker 2: We've got durable goods and we want to get to 491 00:29:26,840 --> 00:29:31,280 Speaker 2: Class eight truck sales or track class eight truck orders 492 00:29:31,320 --> 00:29:34,560 Speaker 2: coming up. I'm Kevin Gordon. America struck a network seven 493 00:29:34,640 --> 00:29:42,160 Speaker 2: hundred WLW. This as America struck a network seven hundred 494 00:29:42,320 --> 00:29:46,760 Speaker 2: WLW finishing up with these mortgage rates and home building, 495 00:29:47,720 --> 00:29:50,920 Speaker 2: building permits, housing starts and so on. One of the 496 00:29:50,960 --> 00:29:54,520 Speaker 2: factors in there that we haven't talked about yet worthy 497 00:29:54,560 --> 00:29:58,000 Speaker 2: amount of refinancing. As interest rate come down, as we 498 00:29:58,040 --> 00:30:01,200 Speaker 2: talked about yesterday, people are more likely to give up 499 00:30:01,240 --> 00:30:05,080 Speaker 2: their three percent loan as mortgage rates come down, and 500 00:30:05,400 --> 00:30:08,160 Speaker 2: they will move out of those homes. And a lot 501 00:30:08,160 --> 00:30:10,800 Speaker 2: of instances there are baby boomers out there that have 502 00:30:10,880 --> 00:30:13,640 Speaker 2: bigger homes than what they want, but because they have 503 00:30:13,680 --> 00:30:16,400 Speaker 2: such a great mortgage rate on that they're not about 504 00:30:16,440 --> 00:30:19,520 Speaker 2: to give that up. As those interest rates come down, 505 00:30:19,640 --> 00:30:22,680 Speaker 2: it's more likely that some of those people may downsize, 506 00:30:22,760 --> 00:30:26,200 Speaker 2: move to a different area, or move to a smaller home, 507 00:30:26,320 --> 00:30:30,120 Speaker 2: which then frees up that housing stock for families and 508 00:30:30,160 --> 00:30:32,760 Speaker 2: young people that want to move into that because now 509 00:30:32,760 --> 00:30:35,480 Speaker 2: they can afford it because of the interest rates. But 510 00:30:35,680 --> 00:30:38,240 Speaker 2: one of the numbers in there that not a lot 511 00:30:38,240 --> 00:30:41,360 Speaker 2: of people that I saw in these articles talked about 512 00:30:41,720 --> 00:30:45,160 Speaker 2: this is very interesting. As a result of applications to 513 00:30:45,200 --> 00:30:48,680 Speaker 2: refinance a home loan rose seven percent for the week, 514 00:30:49,000 --> 00:30:52,480 Speaker 2: and we're up one hundred and thirty two percent higher 515 00:30:52,520 --> 00:30:54,200 Speaker 2: than the same week last year. 516 00:30:54,760 --> 00:30:55,760 Speaker 1: That is good news. 517 00:30:56,000 --> 00:31:00,840 Speaker 2: Last year rates were seventy six basic points, basically seven 518 00:31:00,960 --> 00:31:04,120 Speaker 2: tenths of a promost eight tenths for a percenting point higher. 519 00:31:04,320 --> 00:31:08,080 Speaker 2: While that annual jump may seem large, refinancing was the 520 00:31:08,120 --> 00:31:10,120 Speaker 2: extremely it was extremely low. 521 00:31:10,000 --> 00:31:11,800 Speaker 1: Levels at this time last year. 522 00:31:12,120 --> 00:31:15,840 Speaker 2: Applications for mortgages to purchase a home drop three percent 523 00:31:15,920 --> 00:31:18,520 Speaker 2: for the week, were just eight percent higher than the 524 00:31:18,560 --> 00:31:22,320 Speaker 2: same week a year before, but again eight percent higher 525 00:31:22,360 --> 00:31:26,280 Speaker 2: than the week before is still a significant amount of money. Again, 526 00:31:26,440 --> 00:31:30,200 Speaker 2: as a recovering accountant, when we would analyze financial statements 527 00:31:30,200 --> 00:31:32,840 Speaker 2: and look at things. We would notice that if something 528 00:31:33,000 --> 00:31:36,720 Speaker 2: was a five percent higher or lower or misrepresented, that 529 00:31:36,880 --> 00:31:39,600 Speaker 2: was a significant difference and needed to be called attention 530 00:31:39,680 --> 00:31:43,479 Speaker 2: to and addressed. So again, an eight percent increase is 531 00:31:43,520 --> 00:31:47,920 Speaker 2: not something to sneeze about. Durable goods orders again, again 532 00:31:48,080 --> 00:31:50,840 Speaker 2: looking at the headlines and some of the headlines that 533 00:31:51,280 --> 00:31:55,360 Speaker 2: were there as a result of what the different news 534 00:31:55,880 --> 00:31:59,560 Speaker 2: zed organizations are covering. The worst one was from a 535 00:31:59,640 --> 00:32:05,520 Speaker 2: bit coin World Durable goods orders plunge one point four 536 00:32:05,600 --> 00:32:10,640 Speaker 2: percent in December, alarming signal for twenty twenty five economic outlook. 537 00:32:11,160 --> 00:32:15,680 Speaker 2: A plunge is when something plunges that has got I mean, 538 00:32:15,880 --> 00:32:18,320 Speaker 2: even in the stock market, they don't talk about much 539 00:32:18,360 --> 00:32:20,960 Speaker 2: in terms of plunging until it gets up to a 540 00:32:21,000 --> 00:32:24,480 Speaker 2: five percent or a ten percent correction area. But a 541 00:32:24,520 --> 00:32:28,880 Speaker 2: one point four percent decrease is not a plunge. It 542 00:32:29,000 --> 00:32:32,120 Speaker 2: is a minor decrease. But of course they got to 543 00:32:32,120 --> 00:32:35,560 Speaker 2: play that up. Trading view US durable goods fall less 544 00:32:35,600 --> 00:32:40,400 Speaker 2: than expected. Wall Street Journal durable goods orders slipped in December. 545 00:32:40,560 --> 00:32:45,120 Speaker 2: Now that's more of a realistic headline rather than plunging. 546 00:32:45,840 --> 00:32:52,640 Speaker 2: Durable good orders slipped in December. Advisor perspectives durable goods 547 00:32:52,800 --> 00:32:57,920 Speaker 2: orders down one point four percent in December, but beat expectations. 548 00:32:58,280 --> 00:33:04,680 Speaker 2: Again more relevant and more correct headlines than the one. 549 00:33:04,760 --> 00:33:08,120 Speaker 2: And again I've talked about this numerous times on this program. 550 00:33:08,240 --> 00:33:11,040 Speaker 2: If you're just scrolling through the headlines, if you see, 551 00:33:11,120 --> 00:33:12,680 Speaker 2: you know, if you're going through your phone and you're 552 00:33:12,720 --> 00:33:15,920 Speaker 2: just scrolling through headlines and you read something like durable 553 00:33:15,920 --> 00:33:18,400 Speaker 2: goods plunge, then that's going to be stuck in your 554 00:33:18,440 --> 00:33:21,560 Speaker 2: head as opposed to a headline that says durable goods 555 00:33:21,920 --> 00:33:27,000 Speaker 2: slip or beat expectations. That would be a much better headline. 556 00:33:27,040 --> 00:33:31,080 Speaker 2: But of course people have got to I guess, make 557 00:33:31,160 --> 00:33:34,040 Speaker 2: things worse or sound worse than they are. Total orders 558 00:33:34,080 --> 00:33:37,400 Speaker 2: for durable goods, which comprise goods meant to last three 559 00:33:37,480 --> 00:33:40,400 Speaker 2: years or more, fell one point four percent in the 560 00:33:40,440 --> 00:33:45,440 Speaker 2: month compared with five point five point four percent rise 561 00:33:45,560 --> 00:33:48,560 Speaker 2: in November. So between the two months, you got a 562 00:33:48,560 --> 00:33:52,040 Speaker 2: one point four percent decrease but a five point four 563 00:33:52,120 --> 00:33:56,080 Speaker 2: percent increase. Now, again, as I've talked about before on 564 00:33:56,120 --> 00:33:59,440 Speaker 2: this program, when you're looking at things as a result 565 00:33:59,480 --> 00:34:03,280 Speaker 2: of the plan, things that normally happen in a particular cycle, 566 00:34:03,760 --> 00:34:05,959 Speaker 2: or what you would expect to see in a certain 567 00:34:05,960 --> 00:34:09,240 Speaker 2: month happens either a month before or a month later. 568 00:34:09,520 --> 00:34:12,200 Speaker 2: And so instead of looking at these things more in 569 00:34:12,320 --> 00:34:16,040 Speaker 2: terms of each individual month compared to the previous month 570 00:34:16,680 --> 00:34:19,480 Speaker 2: the previous year, sometimes you have to take like a 571 00:34:19,520 --> 00:34:22,200 Speaker 2: two or three month average of that and say, okay, 572 00:34:22,440 --> 00:34:25,040 Speaker 2: where are we compared to last year. As a result that, 573 00:34:25,200 --> 00:34:28,040 Speaker 2: of course, you always have in there certain things in 574 00:34:28,120 --> 00:34:31,520 Speaker 2: terms of weather, certain things in terms of conditions, certain 575 00:34:31,520 --> 00:34:34,040 Speaker 2: things that are going on in the economy or whatever 576 00:34:34,760 --> 00:34:37,719 Speaker 2: government shut down for instance. All those things are going 577 00:34:37,800 --> 00:34:40,120 Speaker 2: to come into play. So if you're trying to even 578 00:34:40,160 --> 00:34:42,200 Speaker 2: these out, you should look at over a couple of 579 00:34:42,200 --> 00:34:45,680 Speaker 2: month period of time rather than just this constant comparing 580 00:34:45,800 --> 00:34:49,000 Speaker 2: one this month this year to that month last year. 581 00:34:49,280 --> 00:34:52,000 Speaker 2: Economists pulled by the Wall Street Journal had expected a 582 00:34:52,160 --> 00:34:57,200 Speaker 2: larger decline of two percent, So again that was off 583 00:34:57,440 --> 00:35:02,480 Speaker 2: their numbers. Their expectations were off by almost a third. 584 00:35:02,960 --> 00:35:06,680 Speaker 2: So the one point four decrease compared to the two 585 00:35:06,719 --> 00:35:10,600 Speaker 2: percent decrease is a lot better, and so that should 586 00:35:10,600 --> 00:35:12,960 Speaker 2: be you know, if they're saying it should go down 587 00:35:13,000 --> 00:35:15,680 Speaker 2: two percent, they were off by almost thirty three percent. 588 00:35:16,200 --> 00:35:23,040 Speaker 2: Transportation equipment drove the decrease excluding transportation, total orders increase 589 00:35:23,239 --> 00:35:26,719 Speaker 2: by point nine percent. Now, when they dug down on 590 00:35:26,800 --> 00:35:29,840 Speaker 2: these numbers, they were looking at commercial aircraft was a 591 00:35:29,920 --> 00:35:33,279 Speaker 2: source of much of the weakness, while US military provided 592 00:35:33,640 --> 00:35:38,480 Speaker 2: some muscle on the upside, or in Klatschkin Financial Market 593 00:35:38,480 --> 00:35:43,600 Speaker 2: Analystic nationwide, looking the report paints a bullish backdrop for 594 00:35:43,920 --> 00:35:48,160 Speaker 2: durable goods activities. Looking ahead, spending gains should broaden in 595 00:35:48,200 --> 00:35:52,800 Speaker 2: twenty twenty six, with AI leading and other categories stepping 596 00:35:52,880 --> 00:35:58,000 Speaker 2: up as policy tailwinds and lower uncertainty release delayed spending. 597 00:35:58,320 --> 00:36:01,160 Speaker 2: Commercial aircraft was the sore so much of the weakness 598 00:36:01,440 --> 00:36:02,160 Speaker 2: as far as the. 599 00:36:03,920 --> 00:36:04,600 Speaker 1: Durable goods. 600 00:36:04,680 --> 00:36:08,840 Speaker 2: So if you've got one major area like aircraft orders 601 00:36:08,880 --> 00:36:11,560 Speaker 2: that are down, that's going to throw these durable good 602 00:36:11,640 --> 00:36:14,560 Speaker 2: numbers off and kind of how. 603 00:36:14,400 --> 00:36:19,920 Speaker 1: Should I say distorted would be the number. 604 00:36:20,440 --> 00:36:25,480 Speaker 2: Industrial output increased point seven percent last month, which is 605 00:36:25,520 --> 00:36:28,520 Speaker 2: a good sign. That's more robust of the point three 606 00:36:28,560 --> 00:36:34,080 Speaker 2: percent economists had predicted looking at capacity capacity utilization, looking 607 00:36:34,120 --> 00:36:36,560 Speaker 2: at the amount of that could be produced, was it 608 00:36:36,680 --> 00:36:40,279 Speaker 2: seventy six point two percent shy of the seventy six 609 00:36:40,320 --> 00:36:44,080 Speaker 2: point five percent that people had indicated. Taking a look 610 00:36:44,120 --> 00:36:46,160 Speaker 2: real quick before we get out of here. Taking a 611 00:36:46,160 --> 00:36:51,000 Speaker 2: look at January Class eight orders, this is interesting. ACT 612 00:36:51,080 --> 00:36:57,359 Speaker 2: Research preliminary data showed orders increased twenty percent year over 613 00:36:57,520 --> 00:37:03,319 Speaker 2: year from the previous year year twenty percent increase in 614 00:37:03,640 --> 00:37:07,759 Speaker 2: one month from the previous month. Now, ACT Research CORSET 615 00:37:07,840 --> 00:37:13,719 Speaker 2: stands for America's Commercial Transportation Research Company twenty percent sequentially 616 00:37:13,880 --> 00:37:17,640 Speaker 2: from the previous Let me see increase twenty percent year 617 00:37:17,760 --> 00:37:22,200 Speaker 2: over year. But the data also showed orders fell twenty 618 00:37:22,239 --> 00:37:27,400 Speaker 2: seven point eight percent sequentially from the previous month. Again, 619 00:37:27,760 --> 00:37:31,120 Speaker 2: getting back to that situation of where when you are 620 00:37:31,160 --> 00:37:35,759 Speaker 2: doing just a comparison year one month to the previous month, 621 00:37:36,080 --> 00:37:41,360 Speaker 2: sometimes those numbers get skewed because one month because of weather, 622 00:37:41,680 --> 00:37:44,840 Speaker 2: depending upon towards the end of the year or budget 623 00:37:45,000 --> 00:37:48,640 Speaker 2: or whatever, sometimes what you would expect to see increase 624 00:37:48,719 --> 00:37:52,800 Speaker 2: in November happens in December or in October or whatever. 625 00:37:53,040 --> 00:37:55,839 Speaker 2: So looking at the entire year as a whole would 626 00:37:55,880 --> 00:37:59,440 Speaker 2: be the better way of going here, Carter weis Research 627 00:37:59,760 --> 00:38:03,320 Speaker 2: and listened. ACT said, after a week October and November, 628 00:38:03,560 --> 00:38:06,920 Speaker 2: few things have happened that, in our thinking, have helped 629 00:38:07,040 --> 00:38:13,360 Speaker 2: spur recent order activity. US economy continues to outperform expectations, 630 00:38:13,760 --> 00:38:18,560 Speaker 2: clarity surrounding EPA twenty seven. In the EPA twenty twenty 631 00:38:18,640 --> 00:38:23,640 Speaker 2: seven numbers bolster demand and arguably most importantly, since the 632 00:38:23,719 --> 00:38:26,920 Speaker 2: end of November, we've seen a sustained run up in 633 00:38:27,040 --> 00:38:33,800 Speaker 2: short spot in spot rates after three successive Midwest snowstorms. 634 00:38:33,960 --> 00:38:37,279 Speaker 2: So again you're seeing spot rates coming up a little bit. 635 00:38:37,640 --> 00:38:41,320 Speaker 2: That's having an effect. Jonathan Randall, president of Mack Truck 636 00:38:41,400 --> 00:38:46,480 Speaker 2: North America. January orders were strong, reflecting large fleets returning 637 00:38:46,480 --> 00:38:51,799 Speaker 2: to more typical ordering patterns as confidence improved. We're optimistic 638 00:38:51,840 --> 00:38:56,200 Speaker 2: about the year ahead, while recognizing the market will likely 639 00:38:56,480 --> 00:39:01,720 Speaker 2: settle into a steadier pace. Again, the optimism is there. 640 00:39:02,080 --> 00:39:06,120 Speaker 2: The quarter to twenty twenty six Blue Grays Logistic Confidence 641 00:39:06,160 --> 00:39:11,840 Speaker 2: Index rose sharply quarter over quarter, signaling improved consistency in 642 00:39:11,960 --> 00:39:16,839 Speaker 2: shipper expectation even as growth remains measured. According to Magnus Coke, 643 00:39:17,000 --> 00:39:21,840 Speaker 2: vice president of Strategy, Marketing and Brand Management for Volvo International, 644 00:39:22,320 --> 00:39:25,880 Speaker 2: they said US and Canadian Class eight orders showed continued 645 00:39:25,920 --> 00:39:30,040 Speaker 2: strength in January with activity being reported and they gives 646 00:39:30,080 --> 00:39:34,399 Speaker 2: the numbers. So again, even the truck manufacturing companies, they 647 00:39:34,440 --> 00:39:37,720 Speaker 2: are getting very bullish that they're getting very confident about 648 00:39:37,760 --> 00:39:40,960 Speaker 2: what the economy is doing, and they are starting to 649 00:39:40,960 --> 00:39:43,600 Speaker 2: see some increase in spot rates, which is good for 650 00:39:43,640 --> 00:39:47,120 Speaker 2: the trucking industry and hopefully we can put an end 651 00:39:47,360 --> 00:39:51,400 Speaker 2: to this three year truck recession. Well, folks, we're up 652 00:39:51,400 --> 00:39:54,000 Speaker 2: against clock here, time for us to step out the door. 653 00:39:54,239 --> 00:39:56,879 Speaker 2: Stay tuned for ATI Radio at top the hour. I'm 654 00:39:56,960 --> 00:40:01,080 Speaker 2: Kevin Gordon, America's Truck and Network seven hundred W l 655 00:40:01,280 --> 00:40:01,320 Speaker 2: W