1 00:00:00,280 --> 00:00:03,079 Speaker 1: You found Cincinnati's ESPN fifteen thirty. 2 00:00:03,760 --> 00:00:05,400 Speaker 2: So we read this last week. 3 00:00:05,480 --> 00:00:09,119 Speaker 3: Gombegger. This is ESPN fifteen thirty. Thanks for listening. Last Friday, 4 00:00:09,200 --> 00:00:12,760 Speaker 3: we read a blurb. I think blurb's the right word. 5 00:00:13,360 --> 00:00:15,200 Speaker 3: There's an ESPN dot com. 6 00:00:14,960 --> 00:00:15,520 Speaker 2: Piece on. 7 00:00:16,960 --> 00:00:20,360 Speaker 3: Best nets for the upcoming baseball season, over unders, things 8 00:00:20,440 --> 00:00:24,799 Speaker 3: like that, and we read the snippet We'll go a 9 00:00:24,920 --> 00:00:28,400 Speaker 3: snippet on the Reds, which was authored by a guy 10 00:00:28,480 --> 00:00:32,839 Speaker 3: named Derek Carty, ESPN betting analyst, and he had the 11 00:00:32,840 --> 00:00:35,519 Speaker 3: Reds finishing with fewer than eighty two and a half wins, 12 00:00:35,560 --> 00:00:38,240 Speaker 3: and that I don't think is that far fetched. I've 13 00:00:38,280 --> 00:00:40,360 Speaker 3: got him a little bit better. But you know, it's 14 00:00:40,600 --> 00:00:42,519 Speaker 3: they won eighty three games last year. If they won 15 00:00:42,560 --> 00:00:44,519 Speaker 3: eighty two games, it wouldn't be a shock. Eighty two 16 00:00:44,520 --> 00:00:47,120 Speaker 3: would be the under. But what stood out to me, 17 00:00:47,200 --> 00:00:49,120 Speaker 3: and I think what stood out to a lot of folks, 18 00:00:49,280 --> 00:00:52,680 Speaker 3: was the explanation. And the explanation was, well, there's questions 19 00:00:52,720 --> 00:00:55,720 Speaker 3: in the rotation. Andrew Abbott's been one of the luckiest 20 00:00:55,720 --> 00:00:59,320 Speaker 3: pitchers in baseball. Nicoladolo's stuff declined after returning from injury, 21 00:00:59,760 --> 00:01:05,520 Speaker 3: and Derek wrote about projections having this as close to 22 00:01:05,720 --> 00:01:08,959 Speaker 3: a bottom five pitching staff. And so we read this 23 00:01:09,040 --> 00:01:10,720 Speaker 3: on Friday and I said, man, I'd love to get 24 00:01:10,760 --> 00:01:13,119 Speaker 3: this guy on because that doesn't mesh with the consensus. 25 00:01:13,200 --> 00:01:17,440 Speaker 3: Over the weekend, this was spread on Twitter and Derek 26 00:01:17,520 --> 00:01:21,680 Speaker 3: Carty became the latest Cincinnati sports internet villain. You know, 27 00:01:21,800 --> 00:01:25,679 Speaker 3: in this show, we love getting on Cincinnati sports internet villains. 28 00:01:25,720 --> 00:01:28,280 Speaker 3: And so, in the middle of being called a bunch 29 00:01:28,319 --> 00:01:30,480 Speaker 3: of names, I reached out to Derek and said, love 30 00:01:30,560 --> 00:01:32,680 Speaker 3: to have you on, and he was nice enough to 31 00:01:32,720 --> 00:01:34,880 Speaker 3: agree to a join us. Derek Carty is here. How 32 00:01:34,920 --> 00:01:38,000 Speaker 3: you doing, sir, I'm doing pretty well. 33 00:01:38,000 --> 00:01:39,000 Speaker 4: Thanks so much for v man. 34 00:01:39,080 --> 00:01:41,480 Speaker 3: What is the meanest thing A reds Fain either called 35 00:01:41,520 --> 00:01:42,800 Speaker 3: you or said to you over the weekend. 36 00:01:45,480 --> 00:01:48,600 Speaker 4: I don't know about the meanest, but I did learn 37 00:01:48,640 --> 00:01:51,040 Speaker 4: this weekend that the R word is in heavy rotation 38 00:01:51,160 --> 00:01:52,320 Speaker 4: for most people these days. 39 00:01:52,520 --> 00:01:55,800 Speaker 3: Yeah, that's that's uh, that's unfortunate. All right, let's uh, 40 00:01:56,400 --> 00:01:58,800 Speaker 3: let's get to a few of the the the basic 41 00:01:58,840 --> 00:02:02,160 Speaker 3: premises of your article. Let's start with Andrew Abbitt, who 42 00:02:03,000 --> 00:02:05,480 Speaker 3: you expect to have regression. It's worth pointing out by 43 00:02:05,520 --> 00:02:08,080 Speaker 3: the way you offered it me a couple of sorts 44 00:02:08,120 --> 00:02:11,000 Speaker 3: on social media, a little bit of an explanation talked 45 00:02:11,000 --> 00:02:15,720 Speaker 3: about misreading some data. The snippet on the ESPN dot 46 00:02:15,760 --> 00:02:19,160 Speaker 3: com piece has been rewritten to reflect that. But you 47 00:02:19,280 --> 00:02:23,640 Speaker 3: expect Andrew Abbott to be a candidate for regression, and 48 00:02:23,720 --> 00:02:25,639 Speaker 3: he was awesome in the first half last year. The 49 00:02:25,720 --> 00:02:28,400 Speaker 3: number is not so great in the second half. They 50 00:02:28,440 --> 00:02:31,200 Speaker 3: weren't atrocious, but they weren't up to the standard he 51 00:02:31,320 --> 00:02:33,960 Speaker 3: set with that amazing first half. Why do you expect 52 00:02:34,040 --> 00:02:36,040 Speaker 3: him to take a step back in twenty twenty six. 53 00:02:39,080 --> 00:02:41,120 Speaker 4: So a lot of it has to do with just 54 00:02:41,160 --> 00:02:44,800 Speaker 4: some of the core principles of sabermetrics, with that limited 55 00:02:44,840 --> 00:02:48,280 Speaker 4: control over certain things. They have limited control over the 56 00:02:48,320 --> 00:02:50,440 Speaker 4: hits that they allow on balls and play, the percentage 57 00:02:50,440 --> 00:02:52,919 Speaker 4: of runners that they strand on base, the percentage of their 58 00:02:52,880 --> 00:02:55,480 Speaker 4: fly balls that turn into home runs. Generally, when a 59 00:02:55,480 --> 00:02:58,000 Speaker 4: picture does really well in one of these categories, it 60 00:02:58,080 --> 00:03:00,760 Speaker 4: helps his era. He looks really good, but it doesn't 61 00:03:00,800 --> 00:03:04,280 Speaker 4: necessarily carry over to his future era very well. Abbot 62 00:03:04,280 --> 00:03:07,520 Speaker 4: has outperformed in all three and even though he's done 63 00:03:07,560 --> 00:03:09,200 Speaker 4: it for three years, and that seems like a long 64 00:03:09,280 --> 00:03:11,240 Speaker 4: time when it comes to these stats, the math kind 65 00:03:11,240 --> 00:03:15,520 Speaker 4: of says he's still probably likely to get worse at them. 66 00:03:15,720 --> 00:03:18,720 Speaker 3: So all right, you can get worse, you're also getting 67 00:03:18,720 --> 00:03:21,239 Speaker 3: worse from what was a pretty lofty standard in the 68 00:03:21,280 --> 00:03:23,760 Speaker 3: first half of last year. Does getting worse mean he's 69 00:03:23,800 --> 00:03:24,440 Speaker 3: a bad pitcher? 70 00:03:26,040 --> 00:03:29,040 Speaker 4: No, No, I have Andrew Abbot projected as about an 71 00:03:29,080 --> 00:03:31,320 Speaker 4: average pitcher, maybe a little below average, which I think 72 00:03:31,360 --> 00:03:33,560 Speaker 4: is still well below what most people want to hear. 73 00:03:35,000 --> 00:03:38,080 Speaker 4: But when you look at kind of his underlying peripheral metrics, 74 00:03:38,080 --> 00:03:39,840 Speaker 4: he doesn't strike a lot of guys out, He doesn't 75 00:03:39,840 --> 00:03:42,880 Speaker 4: have great control, He gives up a lot of fly balls. 76 00:03:43,160 --> 00:03:46,000 Speaker 4: Even when you dive even deeper into the stackcast data, 77 00:03:46,240 --> 00:03:47,880 Speaker 4: you know what his pitch mix is and how good 78 00:03:47,880 --> 00:03:49,560 Speaker 4: his stuff is. If you look at his velocity and 79 00:03:49,560 --> 00:03:51,120 Speaker 4: his movement and his spin rate and his tilt and 80 00:03:51,200 --> 00:03:53,560 Speaker 4: his tunneling and all that kind of good stuff. We 81 00:03:53,600 --> 00:03:55,840 Speaker 4: can quantify all that stuff now and we can say 82 00:03:56,320 --> 00:03:59,360 Speaker 4: precisely what scouts see with their eyes. And the problem 83 00:03:59,400 --> 00:04:01,480 Speaker 4: with Abbot is all of these stuff models, no matter 84 00:04:01,560 --> 00:04:04,280 Speaker 4: who you look at, they don't like him. They don't 85 00:04:04,280 --> 00:04:07,640 Speaker 4: believe that he's one of these guys that can outperform 86 00:04:08,080 --> 00:04:10,760 Speaker 4: the underlying metrics, the way he's done for the past 87 00:04:10,760 --> 00:04:13,880 Speaker 4: couple of years. So it really just comes down to, 88 00:04:14,320 --> 00:04:17,560 Speaker 4: you know, maybe I'm wrong, Maybe the statistics here are wrong. 89 00:04:17,680 --> 00:04:22,480 Speaker 4: Maybe he really is an outlier like those guys do exist, 90 00:04:22,760 --> 00:04:26,000 Speaker 4: But probability wise, I don't think he is. And we've 91 00:04:26,040 --> 00:04:28,720 Speaker 4: seen it time and again with guys throughout the history 92 00:04:28,720 --> 00:04:30,479 Speaker 4: of baseball, Like look at what Rick Porcello did in 93 00:04:30,480 --> 00:04:33,440 Speaker 4: Boston twenty sixteen. He had what like twenty two wins, 94 00:04:33,480 --> 00:04:35,640 Speaker 4: like a three fifteen ERA, He won the Cy young. 95 00:04:36,200 --> 00:04:37,839 Speaker 4: He was only in the league for another four years 96 00:04:37,839 --> 00:04:40,039 Speaker 4: after that, he never had an ERA under four again, 97 00:04:40,120 --> 00:04:41,960 Speaker 4: and then he was kind of forced out of the league, 98 00:04:42,080 --> 00:04:44,080 Speaker 4: like we saw it with Barry Zito in Oakland where 99 00:04:44,080 --> 00:04:47,120 Speaker 4: he was overperforming his peripherals for so long and then 100 00:04:47,400 --> 00:04:49,800 Speaker 4: he completely fell apart. In the final like ten years 101 00:04:49,839 --> 00:04:51,680 Speaker 4: of his career, he never had an ERA under four. 102 00:04:52,080 --> 00:04:54,680 Speaker 4: Like it's just it's one of those things where he's 103 00:04:54,680 --> 00:04:57,040 Speaker 4: doing it, he's doing it right up until he can't anymore, 104 00:04:57,160 --> 00:04:59,200 Speaker 4: and a lot of times guys just can't do it 105 00:04:59,240 --> 00:04:59,880 Speaker 4: long term. 106 00:05:00,440 --> 00:05:04,280 Speaker 3: Derek Carty is with us explain or elaborate on I 107 00:05:04,279 --> 00:05:08,640 Speaker 3: guess Nick Lidolo's apparent decline and stuff after he came 108 00:05:08,680 --> 00:05:10,960 Speaker 3: off a three week stint on the injured list last year. 109 00:05:12,440 --> 00:05:12,760 Speaker 2: Yeah. 110 00:05:12,800 --> 00:05:15,839 Speaker 4: So, I mean, anytime the pitcher comes off an injury, 111 00:05:16,320 --> 00:05:18,599 Speaker 4: there's always a chance that their stuff is going to 112 00:05:18,640 --> 00:05:24,160 Speaker 4: be diminished. Nicklodolo, his fastold velocity was down a little bit. 113 00:05:25,000 --> 00:05:28,320 Speaker 4: I'd have to look into exactly what the difference was. 114 00:05:28,320 --> 00:05:30,640 Speaker 4: But if you look at the stuff metrics, especially the 115 00:05:30,680 --> 00:05:32,040 Speaker 4: one that I just developed, which is going to be 116 00:05:32,080 --> 00:05:35,320 Speaker 4: a fangrass pretty soon, it says that his stuff was 117 00:05:35,360 --> 00:05:38,640 Speaker 4: worse last year, And so it's you project him out 118 00:05:38,839 --> 00:05:42,160 Speaker 4: just using what he actually did. I'd have him projected 119 00:05:42,200 --> 00:05:45,120 Speaker 4: for a four to seventeen ERA when you account for 120 00:05:45,400 --> 00:05:47,400 Speaker 4: the decline and stuff, he projects for a four to 121 00:05:47,480 --> 00:05:51,760 Speaker 4: seventy three RA. So pretty significant drop off there for 122 00:05:51,800 --> 00:05:55,040 Speaker 4: a guy that, uh, you know, maybe next year the 123 00:05:55,080 --> 00:05:57,440 Speaker 4: stuff bounces back. I mean, he came back from from 124 00:05:57,480 --> 00:05:59,240 Speaker 4: an injury. The stuff, you know, there might have been 125 00:05:59,240 --> 00:06:01,480 Speaker 4: some rusty washing. Often he might go back to being 126 00:06:01,480 --> 00:06:03,800 Speaker 4: the guy that he was before the injury, but we 127 00:06:03,839 --> 00:06:05,760 Speaker 4: don't know that. It's another question mark. 128 00:06:06,000 --> 00:06:09,480 Speaker 3: I just want fewer blisters. I'll settle for that. When 129 00:06:09,520 --> 00:06:12,320 Speaker 3: you talk about stuff, dive into that. For me is 130 00:06:12,320 --> 00:06:14,359 Speaker 3: that control is a command, is a velocity is an 131 00:06:14,360 --> 00:06:16,320 Speaker 3: accommodation of everything to find stuff. 132 00:06:16,360 --> 00:06:19,960 Speaker 4: For me, yes, stuff is. When I say stuff, I 133 00:06:20,040 --> 00:06:23,640 Speaker 4: essentially mean the physical characteristics of a pitch. So it's 134 00:06:23,680 --> 00:06:26,520 Speaker 4: the velocity, it's the movement, it's the spin rate, it's 135 00:06:26,600 --> 00:06:29,719 Speaker 4: the tilt, the late break, how well he tunnels it 136 00:06:29,720 --> 00:06:32,200 Speaker 4: off of other pitches, whether he has bridge pitches to 137 00:06:32,240 --> 00:06:35,120 Speaker 4: work with it, all kinds of stuff like that that 138 00:06:35,279 --> 00:06:37,560 Speaker 4: essentially tells us how good a fastball is, how good 139 00:06:37,560 --> 00:06:40,400 Speaker 4: a curveball is, how good a slider is, and we 140 00:06:40,440 --> 00:06:43,039 Speaker 4: can quantify that. And when you do that, you've wind 141 00:06:43,120 --> 00:06:44,919 Speaker 4: up seeing, okay, the guys that have really good stuff 142 00:06:44,920 --> 00:06:46,560 Speaker 4: for the guys you'd expect, and the guys who have 143 00:06:46,720 --> 00:06:50,880 Speaker 4: bad stuff or the guys you'd expect. And so you know, 144 00:06:50,920 --> 00:06:52,640 Speaker 4: it can be a really informative way of telling us 145 00:06:52,640 --> 00:06:55,040 Speaker 4: who a picture is, or when a picture changes who 146 00:06:55,080 --> 00:06:57,600 Speaker 4: he is, which did appear to be the case with 147 00:06:57,640 --> 00:06:59,520 Speaker 4: the Ladola last year. After the injury. 148 00:07:00,560 --> 00:07:03,919 Speaker 3: Your original premise had Chase Burns, as you put it, 149 00:07:04,000 --> 00:07:07,320 Speaker 3: representing a significant injury risk, and you've kind of walked 150 00:07:07,360 --> 00:07:09,200 Speaker 3: that back explain that to me. 151 00:07:11,080 --> 00:07:14,680 Speaker 4: Yeah, so significant. Maybe I overstated it, but you did 152 00:07:14,720 --> 00:07:18,640 Speaker 4: have the flexer strain last year, which does oftentimes lead 153 00:07:18,720 --> 00:07:21,080 Speaker 4: to Tommy John surgery. So that was where I was 154 00:07:21,080 --> 00:07:23,480 Speaker 4: coming from. With Chase Burns, I had a lot of 155 00:07:23,480 --> 00:07:25,200 Speaker 4: red stands tell me that they don't believe it was 156 00:07:25,200 --> 00:07:27,000 Speaker 4: a real injury, that it was a phantom injury. They 157 00:07:27,000 --> 00:07:30,000 Speaker 4: were trying to manage his workload. Maybe that was the case. 158 00:07:30,120 --> 00:07:32,200 Speaker 4: I'm surprised they'd called a flexer strain if that's what 159 00:07:32,240 --> 00:07:35,440 Speaker 4: it was, If that's what they were doing, But that's 160 00:07:35,520 --> 00:07:37,800 Speaker 4: kind of where that train of logic with that came from. 161 00:07:38,080 --> 00:07:42,280 Speaker 3: They have prioritized the bullpen this spring, and there have 162 00:07:42,320 --> 00:07:44,360 Speaker 3: been off seasons where it felt like what they're doing 163 00:07:44,360 --> 00:07:46,920 Speaker 3: in the bullpen is just find some random guys who 164 00:07:47,000 --> 00:07:49,320 Speaker 3: used to be good and maybe they catch lightning in 165 00:07:49,360 --> 00:07:51,880 Speaker 3: the bottle or get a failed starter and put them 166 00:07:51,880 --> 00:07:54,280 Speaker 3: out there. It felt like they made a priority, made 167 00:07:54,280 --> 00:07:57,239 Speaker 3: it a priority to get guys to fill specific roles 168 00:07:57,240 --> 00:08:00,480 Speaker 3: in the bullpen. With Ameliopegon coming back to be the closer, 169 00:08:01,000 --> 00:08:03,520 Speaker 3: you don't love the bullpen as much as people here may. 170 00:08:03,640 --> 00:08:09,200 Speaker 4: Why they made they made additions to the bullpen, But 171 00:08:09,240 --> 00:08:11,840 Speaker 4: I don't know if they made any real impact editions, 172 00:08:11,880 --> 00:08:15,040 Speaker 4: like they added, Uh, they had Rock Burke, who's like, 173 00:08:15,360 --> 00:08:19,320 Speaker 4: he's fine, but he's not anything special. They added Pierce Johnson, 174 00:08:19,360 --> 00:08:24,360 Speaker 4: who again is fine, but he's not anything special. They 175 00:08:24,400 --> 00:08:26,600 Speaker 4: don't have an elite arm in the bullpen. A lot 176 00:08:26,600 --> 00:08:30,080 Speaker 4: of teams have two or even three. Amelia Pegan is 177 00:08:30,720 --> 00:08:33,720 Speaker 4: you know by you know, ninth inning closer, you know, 178 00:08:34,559 --> 00:08:38,240 Speaker 4: fireman standards. You know, he's realistically one of the weaker 179 00:08:38,280 --> 00:08:40,760 Speaker 4: ones in baseball. So they just don't have that high 180 00:08:40,840 --> 00:08:44,000 Speaker 4: end of the bullpen to really make their bullpen threatening, 181 00:08:44,000 --> 00:08:45,400 Speaker 4: even if they do have a little more depth to 182 00:08:45,440 --> 00:08:45,800 Speaker 4: it now. 183 00:08:47,360 --> 00:08:51,200 Speaker 3: Offensively, you know they did at ayu Haenios Lorez And 184 00:08:51,240 --> 00:08:55,480 Speaker 3: you mentioned your your model projects close to seventy nine 185 00:08:55,480 --> 00:08:58,040 Speaker 3: and a half wins for the Reds and that was 186 00:08:58,160 --> 00:09:01,160 Speaker 3: even accounting for the addition of the u Haano Souarez. 187 00:09:01,240 --> 00:09:05,439 Speaker 3: So what was it before and where do you think 188 00:09:05,480 --> 00:09:07,280 Speaker 3: the biggest shortcoming is going to be for this team? 189 00:09:07,320 --> 00:09:07,880 Speaker 2: Offensively? 190 00:09:10,120 --> 00:09:13,720 Speaker 4: I think the biggest shortcoming really is it's not any 191 00:09:13,840 --> 00:09:17,880 Speaker 4: one spot specifically, It's just that they don't have a 192 00:09:17,880 --> 00:09:20,040 Speaker 4: lot of star power outside of Ellie Da La Cruz 193 00:09:20,800 --> 00:09:25,360 Speaker 4: and they It's hard to put my finger on it. 194 00:09:25,360 --> 00:09:27,120 Speaker 4: It's just that they have a bunch of guys that 195 00:09:27,160 --> 00:09:30,120 Speaker 4: are kind of mediocre or below average, and that's kind 196 00:09:30,120 --> 00:09:32,400 Speaker 4: of what their offense is. It's a little below average. 197 00:09:33,240 --> 00:09:35,280 Speaker 3: Yeah, that's the thing, right, Like it was it was 198 00:09:35,360 --> 00:09:37,640 Speaker 3: fourteenth and one score less, like they were terrible. 199 00:09:37,679 --> 00:09:39,199 Speaker 2: But I understand the general point. 200 00:09:40,679 --> 00:09:42,440 Speaker 4: Yeah, and they have upside. I mean, they have guys 201 00:09:42,480 --> 00:09:44,720 Speaker 4: like south Stewart, who could you know, do something. Maybe 202 00:09:44,720 --> 00:09:47,680 Speaker 4: Matt McLean turns it around. Cabrian Hayes was always a 203 00:09:47,679 --> 00:09:49,960 Speaker 4: guy that I thought was interesting coming up for the pirates, 204 00:09:50,720 --> 00:09:53,800 Speaker 4: Like they have guys. It's just, uh, you look at 205 00:09:53,840 --> 00:09:56,160 Speaker 4: it right now, and there's not a lot of proven 206 00:09:56,520 --> 00:09:57,880 Speaker 4: offense in this lineup. 207 00:09:58,360 --> 00:10:03,080 Speaker 3: So uh you go from originally concluding they could have 208 00:10:03,120 --> 00:10:06,040 Speaker 3: close to a bottom five rotation two and you'mya Kalpa 209 00:10:06,120 --> 00:10:10,600 Speaker 3: talking about how like actually top five rotation how And 210 00:10:10,640 --> 00:10:12,720 Speaker 3: don't take this the wrong way, but how do you 211 00:10:12,760 --> 00:10:15,640 Speaker 3: interpret the data one way and then look at it 212 00:10:15,679 --> 00:10:18,600 Speaker 3: in another way that gives us such an extreme difference 213 00:10:18,600 --> 00:10:19,800 Speaker 3: between the two conclusions. 214 00:10:21,720 --> 00:10:24,439 Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, there's no way around it. It was 215 00:10:24,880 --> 00:10:27,040 Speaker 4: a mistake on my end. It was a stupid mistake, 216 00:10:27,080 --> 00:10:28,720 Speaker 4: and it's one that I'm going to be very careful 217 00:10:29,040 --> 00:10:32,920 Speaker 4: to make again. I'm not one hundred percent sure what happened, 218 00:10:32,920 --> 00:10:35,520 Speaker 4: but what I'm pretty sure happened is kind of the 219 00:10:35,520 --> 00:10:37,320 Speaker 4: way I approached that piece. Again, it was a betting 220 00:10:37,360 --> 00:10:39,440 Speaker 4: piece that wasn't like a deep dive into the reds. 221 00:10:39,520 --> 00:10:41,600 Speaker 4: So I was giving a bet and a sentence or 222 00:10:41,600 --> 00:10:44,000 Speaker 4: two to support the bet. And I always start with 223 00:10:44,040 --> 00:10:46,480 Speaker 4: the projection because I run the projection system the bad X, 224 00:10:46,480 --> 00:10:49,240 Speaker 4: which you might know from fangraphs or elsewhere. It's found 225 00:10:49,240 --> 00:10:51,200 Speaker 4: to be the most accurate the last six years running 226 00:10:51,200 --> 00:10:53,880 Speaker 4: like it's good. So when people tell me that they 227 00:10:54,440 --> 00:10:56,800 Speaker 4: hate when you say trust the math, I have a 228 00:10:56,880 --> 00:10:59,240 Speaker 4: very good reason to trust the math sometimes because my 229 00:10:59,240 --> 00:11:02,599 Speaker 4: math is pretty good. So I was just trusting the 230 00:11:02,679 --> 00:11:07,520 Speaker 4: math on the projection. The projection said, okay, they project 231 00:11:07,520 --> 00:11:09,319 Speaker 4: for about seventy nine and a half wins under eighty 232 00:11:09,360 --> 00:11:11,720 Speaker 4: two and a half. There's a little bit of value there. Okay. 233 00:11:11,720 --> 00:11:14,160 Speaker 4: Now I need to find a sentence or two to 234 00:11:14,160 --> 00:11:17,760 Speaker 4: write up to explain why the projection sees that. And 235 00:11:17,960 --> 00:11:20,720 Speaker 4: I must have pulled the data wrong because when I 236 00:11:20,760 --> 00:11:22,439 Speaker 4: went back and look, the Reds do not have a 237 00:11:22,440 --> 00:11:25,360 Speaker 4: bottom five rotation in baseball. They actually projected the top 238 00:11:25,360 --> 00:11:28,040 Speaker 4: five rotation in my system right now. So I don't 239 00:11:28,080 --> 00:11:30,280 Speaker 4: know if I had it sorted the wrong way or what. 240 00:11:30,520 --> 00:11:34,040 Speaker 4: I have no app I have no no idea it was. 241 00:11:35,679 --> 00:11:37,920 Speaker 4: It was just a mistake, you know what. 242 00:11:38,760 --> 00:11:41,680 Speaker 3: The mia kulpa and the transparency and the willingness to 243 00:11:41,720 --> 00:11:44,520 Speaker 3: do this and engage some fans on social media are 244 00:11:44,640 --> 00:11:46,880 Speaker 3: things that I admire. Go back to last year, so 245 00:11:46,960 --> 00:11:49,720 Speaker 3: they won eighty three, which I memory serves me correct. 246 00:11:50,160 --> 00:11:52,880 Speaker 2: They barely hit the over. I know they hit the over. 247 00:11:52,720 --> 00:11:54,720 Speaker 3: Because I like an idiot, I bet them to hit 248 00:11:54,760 --> 00:11:56,760 Speaker 3: the over every year, and my track record's terrible. 249 00:11:57,360 --> 00:11:59,160 Speaker 2: What did you have the Reds out last year? 250 00:12:00,600 --> 00:12:02,440 Speaker 4: I think I had it similar last year where I 251 00:12:02,480 --> 00:12:05,520 Speaker 4: had them about two or three wins under the line 252 00:12:05,679 --> 00:12:08,320 Speaker 4: and it wound up losing. I think if you looked 253 00:12:08,360 --> 00:12:10,360 Speaker 4: at what I had for all thirty teams, it wound 254 00:12:10,440 --> 00:12:13,040 Speaker 4: up being very profitable. But I was wrong about the 255 00:12:13,040 --> 00:12:14,080 Speaker 4: Reds last year as well. 256 00:12:14,320 --> 00:12:17,160 Speaker 2: Go back, and I know you're tied on time. Two things. 257 00:12:17,200 --> 00:12:23,280 Speaker 3: One Andrew Abbot being lucky, which is something you put 258 00:12:23,320 --> 00:12:25,160 Speaker 3: out there for lack of a better way of putting it, 259 00:12:25,640 --> 00:12:28,200 Speaker 3: How do we account for that? Dive into that for me, 260 00:12:28,240 --> 00:12:30,160 Speaker 3: because I could look at Andrew Abbit it's number secdo 261 00:12:30,240 --> 00:12:32,920 Speaker 3: dude had a pretty good year. Walked me through like 262 00:12:33,240 --> 00:12:35,240 Speaker 3: factoring and luck Why was he lucky last year? 263 00:12:36,800 --> 00:12:39,720 Speaker 4: Well, so Andrew Abbot, Like you look on the surface 264 00:12:39,760 --> 00:12:42,280 Speaker 4: and it looks like he was fantastic. He had pulling 265 00:12:42,360 --> 00:12:43,760 Speaker 4: up this page right now, he had a two eighty 266 00:12:43,800 --> 00:12:47,040 Speaker 4: seven ERA, which is fantastic. But you look under the 267 00:12:47,040 --> 00:12:49,240 Speaker 4: hood at the peripheral metrics and his ex SIP was 268 00:12:49,280 --> 00:12:52,120 Speaker 4: four thirty one. His SIERRA was four twenty. He had 269 00:12:52,120 --> 00:12:54,600 Speaker 4: a two seventy four BABBIT, which is probably lower than 270 00:12:54,640 --> 00:12:56,600 Speaker 4: he's able to sustain. He had an eighty percent left 271 00:12:56,640 --> 00:12:59,480 Speaker 4: on base percentage, which is much higher than anybody can sustain. 272 00:13:00,160 --> 00:13:02,960 Speaker 4: You look at his stuff plus and it's below average. 273 00:13:03,400 --> 00:13:06,960 Speaker 4: It's just you look under the hood and it's like, Okay, 274 00:13:06,960 --> 00:13:08,880 Speaker 4: he's done these things on the surface, he's been able 275 00:13:08,920 --> 00:13:11,160 Speaker 4: to prevent these runs, but he's not doing the types 276 00:13:11,200 --> 00:13:14,960 Speaker 4: of things that guys who prevent runs consistently are able 277 00:13:15,000 --> 00:13:15,280 Speaker 4: to do. 278 00:13:15,920 --> 00:13:16,800 Speaker 2: And what is that. 279 00:13:18,840 --> 00:13:24,160 Speaker 4: Strike guys out? I mean, that's a big. It sounds 280 00:13:23,880 --> 00:13:26,439 Speaker 4: so simple, stupid, but that is a big part of it. 281 00:13:26,520 --> 00:13:29,280 Speaker 4: Like strikeouts are one of the stickiest stats we have 282 00:13:29,400 --> 00:13:31,000 Speaker 4: for a picture. It's one of the most important things 283 00:13:31,000 --> 00:13:33,280 Speaker 4: that you can do as a pitcher, and Andrew Abbitt 284 00:13:33,320 --> 00:13:35,520 Speaker 4: doesn't do it. So at the very least, I think 285 00:13:35,559 --> 00:13:37,199 Speaker 4: we're seeing a guy who's going to regress to being 286 00:13:37,240 --> 00:13:40,559 Speaker 4: above average, if not a little bit worse than that. 287 00:13:40,679 --> 00:13:42,880 Speaker 2: What do you project from my guy, Hunter Green this year? 288 00:13:43,960 --> 00:13:47,000 Speaker 4: Oh? I love Hunter Green this year Hunter Green and 289 00:13:47,080 --> 00:13:50,240 Speaker 4: Chase Burns. My system absolutely loves it. Has been both 290 00:13:50,240 --> 00:13:54,000 Speaker 4: his top ten pictures in baseball at this point, projecting 291 00:13:54,040 --> 00:13:56,640 Speaker 4: big years for Green, especially this year. 292 00:13:56,800 --> 00:13:59,559 Speaker 3: Among all the baseball fan bases, where are red fans 293 00:13:59,559 --> 00:14:00,480 Speaker 3: on the mean scale? 294 00:14:02,240 --> 00:14:06,920 Speaker 4: Oh, they are pretty high. They are pretty high, all right. 295 00:14:07,120 --> 00:14:09,880 Speaker 4: The backlash was it was a lot this weekend. It 296 00:14:09,920 --> 00:14:10,360 Speaker 4: was a lot. 297 00:14:10,520 --> 00:14:11,000 Speaker 2: Yeah. 298 00:14:11,120 --> 00:14:14,040 Speaker 3: I I was sitting there at my kitchen table on 299 00:14:14,120 --> 00:14:16,520 Speaker 3: Saturday morning watching you take it, and I'm like, all right, 300 00:14:16,800 --> 00:14:18,200 Speaker 3: I got to see if this dude will come on 301 00:14:18,200 --> 00:14:20,120 Speaker 3: the air with me, and hopefully he doesn't think I'm 302 00:14:20,120 --> 00:14:22,280 Speaker 3: gonna yell and scream at him as well. So I 303 00:14:22,320 --> 00:14:25,200 Speaker 3: appreciate you doing this. And uh, we'll do it again. Man, 304 00:14:25,240 --> 00:14:25,800 Speaker 3: thanks so much. 305 00:14:26,640 --> 00:14:28,040 Speaker 4: Yeah, no problem, thanks for having me on. 306 00:14:28,200 --> 00:14:29,640 Speaker 2: That's that's Derek Carter. 307 00:14:29,800 --> 00:14:32,640 Speaker 3: You could read his piece ESPN dot com and he 308 00:14:32,720 --> 00:14:34,960 Speaker 3: goes through a whole bunch of good or you might 309 00:14:35,080 --> 00:14:39,000 Speaker 3: argue bad baseball bets. His original premise was the Reds 310 00:14:40,080 --> 00:14:41,920 Speaker 3: are going to be under and he still has him 311 00:14:41,920 --> 00:14:45,080 Speaker 3: at that. But his original premise was bottom five rotation 312 00:14:45,160 --> 00:14:48,240 Speaker 3: in baseball and he walked that back. So look, he 313 00:14:48,680 --> 00:14:51,480 Speaker 3: doesn't he doesn't say what we want to hear, and 314 00:14:51,520 --> 00:14:54,480 Speaker 3: you may or may not agree. And you know, I'm 315 00:14:54,480 --> 00:14:58,920 Speaker 3: not going to argue with his data, but they're not 316 00:14:58,920 --> 00:15:01,720 Speaker 3: going to have a close to bottom five rotation in baseball. 317 00:15:01,800 --> 00:15:04,120 Speaker 3: And look, man, I think the overall assessment of the 318 00:15:04,120 --> 00:15:10,840 Speaker 3: offense is still a fair one. Like Ellie Dela Cruz 319 00:15:10,840 --> 00:15:12,400 Speaker 3: has a pretty good chance to be an All Star. 320 00:15:12,760 --> 00:15:18,520 Speaker 3: Who else would you say, you know, has bona fide 321 00:15:18,680 --> 00:15:22,760 Speaker 3: all star potential. That's a very basic metric to use 322 00:15:22,840 --> 00:15:26,360 Speaker 3: or basic measurement to use. But like if we were 323 00:15:26,360 --> 00:15:28,400 Speaker 3: to do the thing where we guess, like make it 324 00:15:28,400 --> 00:15:30,600 Speaker 3: a betting thing, like who would you bets an All 325 00:15:30,640 --> 00:15:32,480 Speaker 3: Star for the Reds this year? I think you would 326 00:15:32,520 --> 00:15:35,520 Speaker 3: say Hunter and he might even say Andrew Abbott again, 327 00:15:35,600 --> 00:15:37,560 Speaker 3: or you would say Ellie Dela Cruz because he's been 328 00:15:37,560 --> 00:15:38,720 Speaker 3: an All Star a couple of times. 329 00:15:39,080 --> 00:15:39,600 Speaker 2: Who else? 330 00:15:40,640 --> 00:15:43,640 Speaker 3: And there's still a lot of guys like that have 331 00:15:43,760 --> 00:15:47,320 Speaker 3: I feel like, not very high ceilings, pretty low floors. 332 00:15:47,680 --> 00:15:51,200 Speaker 3: And yeah, man U Haaniosares is a good addition, but 333 00:15:51,640 --> 00:15:54,840 Speaker 3: is he alone because he's a one dimensional guy? Are 334 00:15:54,880 --> 00:15:58,120 Speaker 3: the forty home runs enough to help take an offense 335 00:15:58,160 --> 00:16:00,680 Speaker 3: that was middle of the pack last year? Wasn'tfle's middle 336 00:16:00,680 --> 00:16:02,080 Speaker 3: of the pack and make it one of the better 337 00:16:02,120 --> 00:16:04,000 Speaker 3: ones in the sport. I'm skeptical that that's going to 338 00:16:04,040 --> 00:16:08,320 Speaker 3: be the case. I see something around an eighty three 339 00:16:08,360 --> 00:16:12,400 Speaker 3: to eighty six win team, and for what it's worth, 340 00:16:12,440 --> 00:16:14,560 Speaker 3: I got yelled at last year. I said, I think 341 00:16:14,560 --> 00:16:16,800 Speaker 3: the Reds are gonna win eighty three games, and they did, 342 00:16:16,880 --> 00:16:18,800 Speaker 3: And doesn't make me a genius because I think a 343 00:16:18,840 --> 00:16:20,440 Speaker 3: lot of folks had them kind of right there in 344 00:16:20,440 --> 00:16:24,480 Speaker 3: that area. The question is can they outperform what most 345 00:16:24,480 --> 00:16:27,760 Speaker 3: people are gonna believe and get to ninety wins because 346 00:16:27,960 --> 00:16:30,560 Speaker 3: hitting the over under like they if they the over 347 00:16:30,640 --> 00:16:32,400 Speaker 3: under right now is eighty two and a half. If 348 00:16:32,440 --> 00:16:34,440 Speaker 3: they finished with eighty three wins, they hit the over. 349 00:16:34,520 --> 00:16:36,960 Speaker 3: If they finished with eighty three wins, I would be 350 00:16:36,960 --> 00:16:38,920 Speaker 3: willing to bet they're not a playoff team this year. 351 00:16:39,480 --> 00:16:42,080 Speaker 2: And so what this is the bigger. 352 00:16:41,920 --> 00:16:44,120 Speaker 3: Question is can they go from eighty three wins to 353 00:16:44,200 --> 00:16:47,400 Speaker 3: like ninety Can they go from like eighty three wins 354 00:16:47,400 --> 00:16:50,840 Speaker 3: to ninety two? Can they win the National League Central? 355 00:16:52,160 --> 00:16:55,240 Speaker 3: You know, the idea is to not just you know, 356 00:16:55,600 --> 00:17:00,200 Speaker 3: sneak into the postseason with the sixth best record eighty two, 357 00:17:00,240 --> 00:17:02,920 Speaker 3: eighty three, eighty four wins, like, the idea should be 358 00:17:03,440 --> 00:17:07,000 Speaker 3: to go into the postseason with the ability to rest 359 00:17:07,040 --> 00:17:10,080 Speaker 3: them guys, set your rotation, and use the end of 360 00:17:10,080 --> 00:17:12,960 Speaker 3: the season to prepare for a playoff series, whether it's 361 00:17:12,960 --> 00:17:15,639 Speaker 3: getting a bye or playing in the first round. So 362 00:17:15,720 --> 00:17:17,320 Speaker 3: in order to do that, there's gonna have to be 363 00:17:17,359 --> 00:17:21,000 Speaker 3: a substantial increase in victories. The idea should be to 364 00:17:21,000 --> 00:17:22,760 Speaker 3: win the division which made you got a leap frog 365 00:17:22,840 --> 00:17:25,399 Speaker 3: two teams. Now, I don't think ninety seven wins is 366 00:17:25,440 --> 00:17:26,920 Speaker 3: going to be what they have to get this year 367 00:17:27,280 --> 00:17:31,119 Speaker 3: like Milwaukee did last season, but chances are that number 368 00:17:31,160 --> 00:17:35,400 Speaker 3: is north of eighty eight, eighty nine, Maybe ninety ninety one. 369 00:17:36,400 --> 00:17:41,439 Speaker 3: So can this team offensively perform to a degree that 370 00:17:41,520 --> 00:17:45,280 Speaker 3: it didn't last year that enables them to win enough 371 00:17:45,320 --> 00:17:48,600 Speaker 3: games to win the division to go into the playoffs comfortably? 372 00:17:49,280 --> 00:17:52,880 Speaker 3: Can this starting staff be that good? The questions about 373 00:17:52,880 --> 00:17:56,280 Speaker 3: the bullpen, I think it's fair to say they have 374 00:17:56,359 --> 00:17:59,359 Speaker 3: more guys who fill specific roles. How great are some 375 00:17:59,400 --> 00:18:01,520 Speaker 3: of those dudes on a really good team? As a 376 00:18:01,560 --> 00:18:04,320 Speaker 3: Milio Pagan who I love? But is the ninth inning guy? 377 00:18:04,800 --> 00:18:05,399 Speaker 3: Fair question? 378 00:18:05,520 --> 00:18:06,120 Speaker 2: Like, there's. 379 00:18:07,880 --> 00:18:11,000 Speaker 3: There's some fair stuff there now Again, man, the line 380 00:18:11,000 --> 00:18:13,879 Speaker 3: that got me was close to bottom five staff. No 381 00:18:13,960 --> 00:18:17,719 Speaker 3: chance in hell. There's enough depth, there's enough quality. There's 382 00:18:18,040 --> 00:18:21,679 Speaker 3: everybody in their prime. If the weak link is Brady Singer, 383 00:18:22,720 --> 00:18:24,919 Speaker 3: that's really good. If the week link is Chase Burns, 384 00:18:25,000 --> 00:18:29,400 Speaker 3: that's really good. Let's be honest about Andrew Abbot. Love 385 00:18:29,440 --> 00:18:31,439 Speaker 3: Andrew Abbot, but Andrew Abbit in the second half of 386 00:18:31,440 --> 00:18:34,440 Speaker 3: the season, those numbers are more likely to be close 387 00:18:34,520 --> 00:18:37,400 Speaker 3: to his twenty twenty six numbers than what he did 388 00:18:37,400 --> 00:18:39,680 Speaker 3: in the first half last year. There's a lot there. 389 00:18:40,280 --> 00:18:42,280 Speaker 3: He didn't say the team was going to be atrocious. 390 00:18:42,280 --> 00:18:44,200 Speaker 3: He had h'm winning seventy nine and a half games, 391 00:18:44,240 --> 00:18:46,480 Speaker 3: which isn't that far from what they were last season, 392 00:18:46,560 --> 00:18:49,399 Speaker 3: So I'm not Again what stood out to me last 393 00:18:49,400 --> 00:18:52,399 Speaker 3: Friday was close to bottom five staff in baseball because 394 00:18:52,440 --> 00:18:54,919 Speaker 3: the consensus is that they have a chance to have 395 00:18:54,920 --> 00:18:57,560 Speaker 3: a top five staff in baseball, and I believe that, Like, 396 00:18:57,600 --> 00:19:00,159 Speaker 3: I still feel like the upside the high end for 397 00:19:00,240 --> 00:19:02,240 Speaker 3: Hunter Green is really high, and the high end for 398 00:19:02,320 --> 00:19:05,000 Speaker 3: Andrew Abbott is really high, and the high end for 399 00:19:05,080 --> 00:19:08,080 Speaker 3: Nick Lodolo, I still believe is really high. And you know, 400 00:19:08,160 --> 00:19:10,280 Speaker 3: granted there's an experience gap, but the high end for 401 00:19:10,359 --> 00:19:12,640 Speaker 3: Chase Burns seems really good. And Brady, by the way, 402 00:19:12,680 --> 00:19:16,600 Speaker 3: Brady Singer in August last year, saved the season. Like, collectively, 403 00:19:16,640 --> 00:19:21,120 Speaker 3: that's a really good group. But it wouldn't be stunning 404 00:19:21,160 --> 00:19:23,280 Speaker 3: if Andrew Abbott looked more like the pitcher we saw 405 00:19:23,280 --> 00:19:24,880 Speaker 3: in the second half of the season. By the way, 406 00:19:25,240 --> 00:19:26,720 Speaker 3: the picture we saw in the second half of the 407 00:19:26,760 --> 00:19:30,879 Speaker 3: season pitched some great gains in September last year, Remember 408 00:19:30,880 --> 00:19:33,119 Speaker 3: that game against the Padres that he goes the distance 409 00:19:33,119 --> 00:19:36,040 Speaker 3: and wins when the season was teetering on the brink. 410 00:19:36,840 --> 00:19:41,399 Speaker 3: So you know, I hope the guy's basic premise is incorrect. 411 00:19:41,800 --> 00:19:44,680 Speaker 3: I'm not gonna quibble with hardcore data, not in a 412 00:19:44,760 --> 00:19:48,080 Speaker 3: position to do that. What I was interested in was 413 00:19:48,760 --> 00:19:50,520 Speaker 3: how do you go from thinking there's going to be 414 00:19:50,560 --> 00:19:52,680 Speaker 3: a bottom five staff to a top five staff. And 415 00:19:52,720 --> 00:19:55,920 Speaker 3: the dude said he misinterpreted his data, offered to me 416 00:19:56,000 --> 00:19:58,280 Speaker 3: a Kalpa. I can't get mad at him for that. 417 00:19:59,000 --> 00:20:00,600 Speaker 3: Question is are they gonna score at the end of 418 00:20:00,600 --> 00:20:03,040 Speaker 3: the day, Are they gonna score enough runs? Is bullpen 419 00:20:03,119 --> 00:20:05,439 Speaker 3: gonna be better? And are they gonna be better or 420 00:20:05,480 --> 00:20:07,440 Speaker 3: worse in one run games? Because they were a five 421 00:20:07,520 --> 00:20:10,120 Speaker 3: hundred team in one run games last year. If they're 422 00:20:10,119 --> 00:20:12,480 Speaker 3: better in one run games, if the bullpen's more of 423 00:20:12,520 --> 00:20:14,919 Speaker 3: an asset, they will be better in one run games, 424 00:20:15,080 --> 00:20:17,359 Speaker 3: and if the offense is better, they won't have to 425 00:20:17,400 --> 00:20:20,760 Speaker 3: win as many one run games. We'll see twenty three 426 00:20:20,840 --> 00:20:26,239 Speaker 3: at for four Our guy, our legal expert, attorney Stewart W. 427 00:20:26,400 --> 00:20:29,240 Speaker 3: Penrose on a handful of sports legal issues. 428 00:20:28,880 --> 00:20:39,639 Speaker 5: Next Cincinnati's WCKY Cincinnati and iHeartRadio station Guaranteed Human ESPN 429 00:20:39,760 --> 00:20:40,520 Speaker 5: fifteen thirty. 430 00:20:40,800 --> 00:20:42,720 Speaker 2: I Hard Radio just. 431 00:20:42,960 --> 00:20:47,240 Speaker 3: Retweeted something from Jeremy row my guy Hunter Green, sounding off, 432 00:20:47,280 --> 00:20:49,280 Speaker 3: we're gonna play that audio. We're gonna pill for that 433 00:20:49,400 --> 00:20:52,399 Speaker 3: from Jeremy. A little bit later on, we got to 434 00:20:52,440 --> 00:20:55,399 Speaker 3: get to a poll question. It's gonna have to do 435 00:20:55,520 --> 00:20:59,240 Speaker 3: with tanking. Tanking, I said, you'll find that on Twitter 436 00:20:59,359 --> 00:21:02,600 Speaker 3: as well. Our Twitter feed is the service of Delta Dental. 437 00:21:02,600 --> 00:21:05,960 Speaker 3: Delta Dental is building healthy and smart and vibrant communities 438 00:21:06,000 --> 00:21:09,840 Speaker 3: for all good a Delta dentaloh dot com. We talked 439 00:21:10,119 --> 00:21:12,480 Speaker 3: a little bit on the show yesterday about the now 440 00:21:12,560 --> 00:21:15,760 Speaker 3: former Kansas State coach Jerome Tang, who has been fired 441 00:21:16,359 --> 00:21:19,320 Speaker 3: for cause for some comments that he made after a 442 00:21:19,400 --> 00:21:23,560 Speaker 3: Kansas State loss to UC And I don't know anybody 443 00:21:23,600 --> 00:21:26,040 Speaker 3: who believes that case is actually going to find its 444 00:21:26,080 --> 00:21:28,760 Speaker 3: way to a courtroom. Chances are will be settled, and 445 00:21:30,119 --> 00:21:32,200 Speaker 3: chances are Jerome Tang is going to get at least 446 00:21:32,240 --> 00:21:33,960 Speaker 3: a chunk of the money that he is owed. But 447 00:21:34,000 --> 00:21:37,159 Speaker 3: I'm still interested in talking about this from a legal perspective, 448 00:21:37,200 --> 00:21:39,000 Speaker 3: and so we'll do that. Cover a couple of other 449 00:21:39,000 --> 00:21:42,560 Speaker 3: topics with our man from the Manila Law Group, attorney 450 00:21:42,560 --> 00:21:44,359 Speaker 3: Stewart W. Penrose, Next. 451 00:21:46,040 --> 00:21:50,560 Speaker 1: Cincinnati's ESPN fifteen thirty traffic. 452 00:21:51,840 --> 00:21:56,359 Speaker 6: Graphic center. Around forty percent of cancers are preventable. Lifestyle 453 00:21:56,480 --> 00:21:59,280 Speaker 6: changes and screenings can make a difference. Call five one 454 00:21:59,320 --> 00:22:03,359 Speaker 6: three five E five UCCC. There is only one accident 455 00:22:03,400 --> 00:22:06,159 Speaker 6: out there right now. It's northbound seventy five on the 456 00:22:06,240 --> 00:22:10,280 Speaker 6: off ramp to State Route one point twenty two in Middletown. Otherwise, 457 00:22:10,359 --> 00:22:13,960 Speaker 6: traffic running a little slow northbound seventy one between Norwood 458 00:22:14,000 --> 00:22:17,080 Speaker 6: Lateral and Ronald Reagan Highway. At the moment, there's a 459 00:22:17,160 --> 00:22:20,320 Speaker 6: five minute delay. I'm at Ezelik with traffic. 460 00:22:21,119 --> 00:22:24,360 Speaker 1: This found Cincinnati's ESPN fifteen thirty. 461 00:22:24,359 --> 00:22:27,160 Speaker 3: Sports headlines and just a few There's not a ton 462 00:22:27,200 --> 00:22:29,000 Speaker 3: of late breaking news for me to share with you, 463 00:22:29,080 --> 00:22:31,080 Speaker 3: so we'll push that off while we clear room for 464 00:22:31,280 --> 00:22:35,359 Speaker 3: our legal analyst from the Manila Law Group. Our friend, 465 00:22:35,440 --> 00:22:40,160 Speaker 3: attorney Stuart W. Penrose, answers our sports and legal questions. 466 00:22:40,359 --> 00:22:41,160 Speaker 3: Good afternoon, sir. 467 00:22:41,200 --> 00:22:42,880 Speaker 2: How are you good? 468 00:22:42,880 --> 00:22:44,000 Speaker 7: Afternoon? I doing great? 469 00:22:44,000 --> 00:22:44,479 Speaker 4: How about you? 470 00:22:44,600 --> 00:22:47,240 Speaker 3: I'm doing well. I want to start by asking about 471 00:22:47,560 --> 00:22:51,600 Speaker 3: Jerome Tang. He is now the former head basketball coach 472 00:22:51,640 --> 00:22:54,960 Speaker 3: at Kansas State. After a game last week in which 473 00:22:54,960 --> 00:22:58,120 Speaker 3: his team was throttled by the Bearcats, he popped off 474 00:22:58,160 --> 00:23:00,800 Speaker 3: on his players. He did coach one more game this weekend, 475 00:23:00,880 --> 00:23:04,199 Speaker 3: then late on Sunday night, he was fired for cause, 476 00:23:04,800 --> 00:23:07,720 Speaker 3: and the school says, well, the language and his contract 477 00:23:07,720 --> 00:23:12,159 Speaker 3: addresses certain things that can potentially bring embarrassment. His comments 478 00:23:12,200 --> 00:23:14,360 Speaker 3: about the student athletes, and the negative reaction to those 479 00:23:14,359 --> 00:23:16,840 Speaker 3: comments from a lot of sources, both locally and nationally 480 00:23:17,960 --> 00:23:23,800 Speaker 3: brought brought embarrassment to the university. The school says, I 481 00:23:23,800 --> 00:23:25,600 Speaker 3: think most of us look at a guy who had 482 00:23:25,640 --> 00:23:28,240 Speaker 3: won one game in the league and was probably gonna 483 00:23:28,280 --> 00:23:30,480 Speaker 3: lose his job anyway, and we see a school that 484 00:23:30,600 --> 00:23:32,480 Speaker 3: is just trying to get out from underneath the more 485 00:23:32,480 --> 00:23:36,000 Speaker 3: than eighteen million dollars that the school owes them. Let's 486 00:23:36,000 --> 00:23:38,439 Speaker 3: start from the beginning here. What is the difference between 487 00:23:38,480 --> 00:23:40,520 Speaker 3: firing for cause and without cause? 488 00:23:41,880 --> 00:23:45,240 Speaker 7: Sure, well without cosmo, I mean it's a fault termination. 489 00:23:45,359 --> 00:23:49,920 Speaker 7: You could fire coach for any reason, including performance. And 490 00:23:49,920 --> 00:23:52,600 Speaker 7: if you fire them without cause or their full buyout, 491 00:23:52,840 --> 00:23:56,800 Speaker 7: which in his case is apparently around eighteen million, four 492 00:23:57,000 --> 00:24:02,400 Speaker 7: cause you're looking at violent of contract provisions, you're usually 493 00:24:02,440 --> 00:24:07,520 Speaker 7: talking MC double A violations, criminal conduct, moral super turpitude 494 00:24:08,760 --> 00:24:10,760 Speaker 7: or what the universe is trying to claim here, you know, 495 00:24:10,800 --> 00:24:15,439 Speaker 7: public disrepute or embarrassment, you know, is what they're trying to, 496 00:24:15,920 --> 00:24:17,639 Speaker 7: you know, claim here in the situation. 497 00:24:17,920 --> 00:24:22,280 Speaker 3: So, embarrassment is kind of subjective, right, Like it's it's 498 00:24:22,359 --> 00:24:24,920 Speaker 3: clear cut. If you break an NC double a rule, fine, 499 00:24:24,920 --> 00:24:27,240 Speaker 3: that's clear cut. If you run a foul of the 500 00:24:27,320 --> 00:24:30,240 Speaker 3: law and you're convicted of a crime, that's clear cut. 501 00:24:30,680 --> 00:24:36,959 Speaker 3: Embarrassment is subjective, disrepute is subjective. And so based on that, 502 00:24:37,080 --> 00:24:39,000 Speaker 3: based on the fact that we're talking about things that 503 00:24:39,480 --> 00:24:42,440 Speaker 3: what's embarrassing to one might not be embarrassing to the other, 504 00:24:42,760 --> 00:24:45,200 Speaker 3: does the school really have a legal leg to stand. 505 00:24:45,000 --> 00:24:49,879 Speaker 7: On, Well, it'll go forward in the court if it 506 00:24:49,920 --> 00:24:53,200 Speaker 7: makes it that far. I don't think anyone's senses are 507 00:24:53,240 --> 00:24:56,680 Speaker 7: deceiving them. It certainly appears that they're trying to get 508 00:24:56,680 --> 00:25:00,840 Speaker 7: a discount on the very expensive buyout they all coach 509 00:25:00,920 --> 00:25:05,159 Speaker 7: tang here, he's hired a very reputable sports lawyer, Tom Marsh, 510 00:25:05,160 --> 00:25:08,159 Speaker 7: who was Jim Harbaugh's attorney, who came down hard on 511 00:25:08,240 --> 00:25:11,240 Speaker 7: Kansas State and said, you know, this is just the 512 00:25:11,240 --> 00:25:13,440 Speaker 7: beginning of the embarrassment for KSE State and the AD. 513 00:25:13,720 --> 00:25:17,840 Speaker 7: So it certainly seems like they're fighting it. Good for them. Uh, look, 514 00:25:17,920 --> 00:25:20,000 Speaker 7: I mean, let's be honest here, he is you know, 515 00:25:20,200 --> 00:25:22,600 Speaker 7: far from the first coach to go out and publicly 516 00:25:22,640 --> 00:25:25,159 Speaker 7: criticize his players and his team. And you know a 517 00:25:25,240 --> 00:25:29,360 Speaker 7: lot of coaches use that as a motivation tactic. If 518 00:25:29,400 --> 00:25:31,720 Speaker 7: you're looking at that and you said, and you said 519 00:25:31,720 --> 00:25:34,280 Speaker 7: to yourself, wow, this doesn't sound any different than something 520 00:25:34,320 --> 00:25:37,560 Speaker 7: I hear from Coach A or coach B. Well, your again, 521 00:25:37,640 --> 00:25:40,639 Speaker 7: your senses aren't deceiving you. And you know, would the 522 00:25:40,920 --> 00:25:44,200 Speaker 7: case state A d be saying something like this if 523 00:25:44,680 --> 00:25:46,679 Speaker 7: coach Tang in the same comments to his team that 524 00:25:46,760 --> 00:25:49,199 Speaker 7: was in the top fifteen, You know, probably not. 525 00:25:49,840 --> 00:25:52,840 Speaker 2: So how often do cases like this actually end up 526 00:25:52,880 --> 00:25:53,240 Speaker 2: in court? 527 00:25:56,000 --> 00:26:01,200 Speaker 7: They can, but rarely Discovery's messy emails can come out 528 00:26:01,240 --> 00:26:05,440 Speaker 7: that show things that nier side wants. Schools don't want 529 00:26:05,480 --> 00:26:08,800 Speaker 7: to get dragged through the mug with something like this. 530 00:26:09,880 --> 00:26:11,800 Speaker 7: Generally speaking, they're going to come to some sort of 531 00:26:11,840 --> 00:26:16,720 Speaker 7: negotiated resolution. But you can clearly see that Jerome Tang 532 00:26:17,200 --> 00:26:20,240 Speaker 7: is finding this hard with this attorney. He's hired a 533 00:26:20,280 --> 00:26:22,760 Speaker 7: bulldog to go to bat for him, and we'll see 534 00:26:22,760 --> 00:26:26,080 Speaker 7: what happens. I mean, LSU tried something with Brian Kelly 535 00:26:26,119 --> 00:26:29,119 Speaker 7: recently when they fired him and seemed to try to 536 00:26:29,160 --> 00:26:30,760 Speaker 7: put that off and try to come up with some 537 00:26:30,800 --> 00:26:33,399 Speaker 7: four cause reasoning. He retained counsel when he got his 538 00:26:33,440 --> 00:26:36,199 Speaker 7: full buyout, so you know it's very possible that may 539 00:26:36,240 --> 00:26:39,680 Speaker 7: happen here for a coach Tang, this, I. 540 00:26:39,600 --> 00:26:42,359 Speaker 3: Guess this may be a stupid question. So the comments 541 00:26:42,359 --> 00:26:45,240 Speaker 3: in question were made after a game on Wednesday. Kansas 542 00:26:45,280 --> 00:26:48,959 Speaker 3: State played a game on Saturday. Jerome Tang coached his 543 00:26:49,000 --> 00:26:51,680 Speaker 3: team in that game. They lost to Houston and then 544 00:26:51,720 --> 00:26:53,679 Speaker 3: got let go on Sunday. So there's a part of 545 00:26:53,680 --> 00:26:55,240 Speaker 3: me that goes, wait a minute, if he brought such 546 00:26:55,240 --> 00:26:57,879 Speaker 3: shame and embarrassment to the university, why would you let 547 00:26:58,000 --> 00:27:01,280 Speaker 3: him represent the school on Saturday? That tells me that 548 00:27:01,359 --> 00:27:04,000 Speaker 3: this is not because of the comments last week. If 549 00:27:04,000 --> 00:27:06,320 Speaker 3: they were, he would have at least been suspended. What 550 00:27:06,320 --> 00:27:07,760 Speaker 3: would you say to that? From a legal. 551 00:27:07,560 --> 00:27:11,639 Speaker 7: Perspective, Once again, your senses aren't receiving you. I mean, 552 00:27:11,760 --> 00:27:13,600 Speaker 7: it looks like a dock and it sounds like a duck. 553 00:27:14,520 --> 00:27:16,560 Speaker 7: I think it's pretty clear the university is trying to, 554 00:27:17,200 --> 00:27:19,119 Speaker 7: you know, get out from a buyout, or get out 555 00:27:19,119 --> 00:27:23,199 Speaker 7: as much as they can from a buyout. This is 556 00:27:23,560 --> 00:27:26,040 Speaker 7: his speech and his press conference is nothing we haven't 557 00:27:26,080 --> 00:27:31,480 Speaker 7: seen hundreds of times over with various coaches. He's going 558 00:27:31,560 --> 00:27:34,240 Speaker 7: to argue that they're very much stretching the meaning of, 559 00:27:34,840 --> 00:27:37,600 Speaker 7: you know, embarrassment to the university. And it seems that 560 00:27:37,640 --> 00:27:40,040 Speaker 7: the coach is a very strong case here, and certainly 561 00:27:40,080 --> 00:27:41,800 Speaker 7: the fact that they let him coach another game, well, 562 00:27:42,520 --> 00:27:44,760 Speaker 7: you know, certainly gives credence to that argument. 563 00:27:45,680 --> 00:27:47,680 Speaker 2: Let's talk about the NFLPA. 564 00:27:47,920 --> 00:27:50,160 Speaker 3: So for years, for the last couple of years, they've 565 00:27:50,200 --> 00:27:53,280 Speaker 3: released these team report cards which are based on surveys 566 00:27:53,359 --> 00:27:56,400 Speaker 3: done of the players, and as a result of those surveys, 567 00:27:56,400 --> 00:28:00,040 Speaker 3: the NFLPA will release port card report cards about the 568 00:28:00,080 --> 00:28:03,000 Speaker 3: teams and how they operate, how what kind of workplace 569 00:28:03,040 --> 00:28:06,359 Speaker 3: conditions there are, how families are treated, what sort of 570 00:28:06,359 --> 00:28:09,400 Speaker 3: perks players get working for each team, that sort of thing. 571 00:28:10,280 --> 00:28:13,639 Speaker 3: The NFL has challenged this, and it has been ruled 572 00:28:13,640 --> 00:28:16,760 Speaker 3: that the nfl PA is they're allowed to conduct these surveys, 573 00:28:17,119 --> 00:28:19,280 Speaker 3: but they're no longer allowed to make the result of 574 00:28:19,320 --> 00:28:23,720 Speaker 3: these surveys public. Why was this ruling reached and is 575 00:28:23,760 --> 00:28:26,240 Speaker 3: this something that the players Association can challenge? 576 00:28:27,560 --> 00:28:29,040 Speaker 7: Sure? Well, I mean, first off, I mean this is 577 00:28:29,040 --> 00:28:31,440 Speaker 7: not a First Amendment cage. It's a labor contract case. 578 00:28:31,880 --> 00:28:35,880 Speaker 7: I mean, the arbitrator essentially decided that you know, they're 579 00:28:35,880 --> 00:28:39,800 Speaker 7: publishing this publicly, you know, violated, violated the CBA and 580 00:28:39,840 --> 00:28:43,840 Speaker 7: the language of the CBA. You know, labor arbitration rulings 581 00:28:43,880 --> 00:28:47,400 Speaker 7: are very difficult to challenge, and they're very difficult, very 582 00:28:47,480 --> 00:28:51,840 Speaker 7: rarely overturned. Typically speaking, you know, you're looking for fraud, 583 00:28:51,920 --> 00:28:56,200 Speaker 7: bias or arbitrator misconduct. You know, the more realistic expectation 584 00:28:56,800 --> 00:29:00,880 Speaker 7: is the nfl PA either compliance or it's simply negotiates 585 00:29:00,920 --> 00:29:04,720 Speaker 7: new language in their next CBA. Certainly, they can still 586 00:29:04,760 --> 00:29:09,040 Speaker 7: conduct these surveys, use the data internally and try to 587 00:29:09,080 --> 00:29:13,200 Speaker 7: push teams internally with it. But you know, the arbitrator 588 00:29:13,240 --> 00:29:16,400 Speaker 7: pretty you know, clearly ruled that it violated the language 589 00:29:16,440 --> 00:29:19,640 Speaker 7: of the CBA and something for them to work on 590 00:29:19,640 --> 00:29:20,920 Speaker 7: in the next CBA perhaps. 591 00:29:21,800 --> 00:29:25,240 Speaker 3: Yeah. By the way, and we'll talk about this next week, 592 00:29:25,800 --> 00:29:28,600 Speaker 3: because we're gonna be talking a lot about baseball CBA 593 00:29:28,680 --> 00:29:31,160 Speaker 3: expiring at the end of this season. Their a union 594 00:29:31,240 --> 00:29:33,520 Speaker 3: had left, and so put that on the back burner 595 00:29:33,520 --> 00:29:36,280 Speaker 3: for next week because there's lots of questions about that. 596 00:29:36,800 --> 00:29:39,240 Speaker 3: I do have to ask you though about another college 597 00:29:39,240 --> 00:29:42,080 Speaker 3: eligibility case. We have one of these seemingly every week. 598 00:29:42,200 --> 00:29:45,080 Speaker 3: Ole miss quarterback Trinidad Chambliss is going to get a 599 00:29:45,320 --> 00:29:47,320 Speaker 3: sixth year of eligibility. 600 00:29:47,360 --> 00:29:48,960 Speaker 2: What was the foundation of his case? 601 00:29:50,440 --> 00:29:52,280 Speaker 7: Sure, well, he's claiming that he should have had a 602 00:29:52,320 --> 00:29:54,680 Speaker 7: medical red shirt for one of his years that at 603 00:29:54,760 --> 00:29:57,520 Speaker 7: Fairris State, that he didn't suit up, that he didn't play. 604 00:29:58,240 --> 00:30:02,239 Speaker 7: The NCAA had had declined his case and ruled him 605 00:30:02,240 --> 00:30:05,400 Speaker 7: in eligible. Uh, he appealed it. He lost his appeal 606 00:30:05,480 --> 00:30:08,240 Speaker 7: as well. And you know we're getting in a pattern 607 00:30:08,240 --> 00:30:11,040 Speaker 7: of this on this segment. You know, we're seeing judicial 608 00:30:11,080 --> 00:30:15,120 Speaker 7: oversight of you know, college sports eligibility and that's you know, 609 00:30:15,640 --> 00:30:17,880 Speaker 7: we're seeing it more and more, and you know it's 610 00:30:17,920 --> 00:30:21,080 Speaker 7: it's already a ripple effect. This is already uh you 611 00:30:21,120 --> 00:30:25,040 Speaker 7: know uh part of that. You know that they're gonna 612 00:30:25,040 --> 00:30:27,400 Speaker 7: look at it a case by case basis. And you 613 00:30:27,440 --> 00:30:28,920 Speaker 7: know he was able to sue in a in a 614 00:30:28,920 --> 00:30:32,720 Speaker 7: Mississippi state court that certainly can't hurt you know, you're 615 00:30:32,840 --> 00:30:36,480 Speaker 7: arguing against uh you know state uh anti trust laws 616 00:30:36,520 --> 00:30:39,360 Speaker 7: and you know, quite frankly, in a state like Mississippi, 617 00:30:39,360 --> 00:30:41,680 Speaker 7: there's only two law schools and you know the only 618 00:30:41,720 --> 00:30:44,440 Speaker 7: public one is old mess. I'm not saying the judge 619 00:30:44,440 --> 00:30:47,520 Speaker 7: you know, didn't did anything improper in there by any means, 620 00:30:47,520 --> 00:30:49,720 Speaker 7: but you know, yes, you know you're you're going to 621 00:30:49,800 --> 00:30:53,800 Speaker 7: get a more favorable venue in these circumstances. But it's 622 00:30:53,880 --> 00:30:56,680 Speaker 7: just very, very hard for the n c double A 623 00:30:56,840 --> 00:31:02,440 Speaker 7: to uh, you know, blanketly enforce eligibility over certain issues 624 00:31:02,520 --> 00:31:07,520 Speaker 7: because different states have different laws that you know garner anti. 625 00:31:07,240 --> 00:31:07,800 Speaker 4: Trust and. 626 00:31:10,120 --> 00:31:12,920 Speaker 7: It makes it very difficult for the NCAA to you know, 627 00:31:13,440 --> 00:31:16,600 Speaker 7: keep their power and blankently enforce it. And you know, 628 00:31:16,640 --> 00:31:18,440 Speaker 7: the young man's gonna be able to play next year. 629 00:31:18,440 --> 00:31:21,600 Speaker 7: I mean, the NCAA technically could appeal that the injunction. 630 00:31:21,600 --> 00:31:23,840 Speaker 7: I mean, the case technically is still going on. What 631 00:31:23,960 --> 00:31:26,680 Speaker 7: he got is an injunction, but you know cases take years, 632 00:31:26,720 --> 00:31:28,720 Speaker 7: and you know, by the time this case is over, 633 00:31:28,760 --> 00:31:30,680 Speaker 7: he'll be awest to the NFL. 634 00:31:31,000 --> 00:31:34,240 Speaker 3: Yeah, unless he sues for more years of college eligibility, 635 00:31:34,280 --> 00:31:37,640 Speaker 3: which you always have to account for that. Attorney Stewart W. 636 00:31:37,800 --> 00:31:40,280 Speaker 3: Penrose from the Manila Law Group. You can learn more 637 00:31:40,440 --> 00:31:42,880 Speaker 3: at Manila Lawgroup dot com. Awesome to have you, as 638 00:31:42,880 --> 00:31:46,320 Speaker 3: always started, Thanks so much, Thank you, that's our guy, 639 00:31:46,360 --> 00:31:47,320 Speaker 3: Attorney Stewart W. 640 00:31:47,440 --> 00:31:50,320 Speaker 2: Penrose. He has been an awesome addition to our show. 641 00:31:50,640 --> 00:31:53,000 Speaker 3: Sports headlines are a service to Kelsey Chevrolet, home of 642 00:31:53,040 --> 00:31:57,000 Speaker 3: lifetime powertrain protection and guaranteed credit approval from their family 643 00:31:57,080 --> 00:32:00,120 Speaker 3: to yours for life kelseyshev dot com. We're gonna play 644 00:32:00,120 --> 00:32:02,800 Speaker 3: the Hunter Green audio at five oh five. You may 645 00:32:02,840 --> 00:32:06,920 Speaker 3: have heard I like Hunter Green. Hunter Green's gonna sound. 646 00:32:06,920 --> 00:32:10,000 Speaker 3: You're gonna hear him sounding pretty pissed off in twenty minutes, 647 00:32:10,680 --> 00:32:15,040 Speaker 3: and you cannot blame him. Reds are continuing workouts Hunter 648 00:32:15,080 --> 00:32:18,880 Speaker 3: through live batting practice today to the Reds hitters, and 649 00:32:19,640 --> 00:32:21,920 Speaker 3: I rooted for Hunter Green because that's what I do. 650 00:32:25,160 --> 00:32:27,400 Speaker 3: The first Cactus League game is on Saturday, Reds and 651 00:32:27,400 --> 00:32:30,800 Speaker 3: Guardians at three ten on Fox Sports thirteen sixty. The 652 00:32:31,120 --> 00:32:33,720 Speaker 3: franchise tag window is open. It's been open for forty 653 00:32:33,760 --> 00:32:36,800 Speaker 3: six minutes. I don't think that the Bengals have tagged 654 00:32:36,920 --> 00:32:39,400 Speaker 3: Trey Hendrickson yet, but they can now. They legally can 655 00:32:39,480 --> 00:32:43,080 Speaker 3: all the way until March fourth. College basketball tonight, Xavier 656 00:32:43,200 --> 00:32:44,600 Speaker 3: is taking on villanov. 657 00:32:44,680 --> 00:32:45,560 Speaker 2: You know the Big East. 658 00:32:46,960 --> 00:32:50,400 Speaker 3: I would stop short of saying that there's a big 659 00:32:50,440 --> 00:32:53,520 Speaker 3: two in the Big East, and I know Saint John's 660 00:32:53,800 --> 00:32:58,600 Speaker 3: just beat Yukon at Madison Square Garden, but I will 661 00:32:58,640 --> 00:33:02,680 Speaker 3: maintain that Yukon with Dan Hurley complaining about attendance and 662 00:33:02,800 --> 00:33:09,200 Speaker 3: Huskies games still feels like a class among themselves. Now 663 00:33:10,400 --> 00:33:12,600 Speaker 3: both teams have lost one game in the league, Ukon 664 00:33:12,720 --> 00:33:18,480 Speaker 3: in Saint John's, so okay, fine, we'll make it about 665 00:33:18,480 --> 00:33:22,720 Speaker 3: the big two. And then there's like the bottom half, 666 00:33:23,840 --> 00:33:27,720 Speaker 3: and then a couple of teams that at times, like 667 00:33:27,760 --> 00:33:30,320 Speaker 3: Seaton Hall can look really good and at sometimes eh. 668 00:33:31,360 --> 00:33:34,720 Speaker 3: And right now the Pirates are playing really well. Creighton 669 00:33:35,840 --> 00:33:38,960 Speaker 3: is not very good, but when you've watched them on 670 00:33:39,080 --> 00:33:42,120 Speaker 3: good nights, you've seen a team that looks good. Then 671 00:33:42,160 --> 00:33:46,120 Speaker 3: there's Villanova that is very quietly eleven and three in 672 00:33:46,160 --> 00:33:49,320 Speaker 3: the league. They're in town tonight to play Xavier, first 673 00:33:49,320 --> 00:33:52,080 Speaker 3: of two meetings between these two schools between now and 674 00:33:52,200 --> 00:33:55,280 Speaker 3: the end of the season. Tip Off is going to 675 00:33:55,320 --> 00:33:59,000 Speaker 3: be tonight at six point thirty and you'll hear the 676 00:33:59,040 --> 00:34:02,560 Speaker 3: game live on seven hundred Wlwpre game coverage starts at 677 00:34:02,560 --> 00:34:05,680 Speaker 3: six o'clock. Kevin Willard on track to take the Wildcats 678 00:34:05,680 --> 00:34:07,880 Speaker 3: of the NCAA Tournament for the first time since Jay 679 00:34:07,880 --> 00:34:12,320 Speaker 3: Wright retired in twenty twenty two, and balanced team ranked 680 00:34:12,400 --> 00:34:15,840 Speaker 3: close to the top thirty nationally and offensive and defensive 681 00:34:15,840 --> 00:34:20,080 Speaker 3: efficiency playing the Xavier team that closed out Marquette and 682 00:34:20,120 --> 00:34:21,600 Speaker 3: for a lot of that game looked really good. On 683 00:34:21,640 --> 00:34:24,920 Speaker 3: Saturday again, tip off tonight at six thirty, Miami battles 684 00:34:25,000 --> 00:34:29,640 Speaker 3: U mass The RedHawks faced a pretty stiff test from 685 00:34:29,680 --> 00:34:32,920 Speaker 3: the minute men back on January the twenty seventh, and 686 00:34:32,960 --> 00:34:39,280 Speaker 3: RedHawks are point and a half favorites. J Billis ranks 687 00:34:39,960 --> 00:34:43,480 Speaker 3: the sixty eight best teams in college basketball. He has 688 00:34:43,560 --> 00:34:48,160 Speaker 3: Miami twenty sixth. He writes my on court view of 689 00:34:48,160 --> 00:34:50,240 Speaker 3: the RedHawks as the rank them in the mid forties 690 00:34:50,280 --> 00:34:56,400 Speaker 3: of the Billis Index. Jay Billis is among the best 691 00:34:56,400 --> 00:34:59,440 Speaker 3: college basketball analysts going, and so he's one of the 692 00:34:59,440 --> 00:35:02,840 Speaker 3: few people talking about the RedHawks that I would imagine 693 00:35:02,840 --> 00:35:06,719 Speaker 3: has actually watched them and say what you want about 694 00:35:06,719 --> 00:35:09,440 Speaker 3: their schedule, and say what you want about whether or 695 00:35:09,480 --> 00:35:11,840 Speaker 3: not they should be included in the field of sixty 696 00:35:11,880 --> 00:35:15,719 Speaker 3: eight if they lose the MAC Tournament title game but 697 00:35:15,800 --> 00:35:18,880 Speaker 3: win all their regular season games, and I have a 698 00:35:18,960 --> 00:35:21,520 Speaker 3: really hard time believing the committee is going to ignore 699 00:35:21,719 --> 00:35:27,080 Speaker 3: zero losses in the regular season. But offensively, look, they're 700 00:35:27,120 --> 00:35:29,960 Speaker 3: not brimming with NBA guys, have a lot of guys 701 00:35:29,960 --> 00:35:32,480 Speaker 3: who probably wouldn't get playing time on good Big twelve teams, 702 00:35:33,040 --> 00:35:35,440 Speaker 3: But they run really good stuff. They don't take a 703 00:35:35,440 --> 00:35:39,960 Speaker 3: bunch of bad shots. Ian Elmer's made some huge shots 704 00:35:39,960 --> 00:35:42,239 Speaker 3: for that team. Pete Sooter has obviously been a great 705 00:35:42,239 --> 00:35:46,440 Speaker 3: playmaker for that team. Brant Byers can shoot the ball 706 00:35:46,600 --> 00:35:51,200 Speaker 3: like they're in the upper part of the sport in 707 00:35:51,280 --> 00:35:55,879 Speaker 3: a lot of advanced offensive metrics. What you wonder about is, 708 00:35:55,920 --> 00:35:58,040 Speaker 3: and this has happened a couple of times, it happened 709 00:35:58,040 --> 00:36:00,920 Speaker 3: against UMAs to a degree, the miniments fifty one per 710 00:36:01,880 --> 00:36:06,839 Speaker 3: Miami has defensive deficiencies. Now, I think they've gotten better 711 00:36:06,920 --> 00:36:09,120 Speaker 3: relative to the way they played against Kent State, the 712 00:36:09,160 --> 00:36:11,400 Speaker 3: way they played in the first Buffalo game, and the 713 00:36:11,440 --> 00:36:14,799 Speaker 3: way they played against U. Mass But we talk about 714 00:36:14,840 --> 00:36:17,480 Speaker 3: this a lot in across a lot of different sports. 715 00:36:17,560 --> 00:36:20,279 Speaker 3: When does your fatal flaw catch up to you? Does 716 00:36:20,320 --> 00:36:21,080 Speaker 3: a catch up to him? 717 00:36:21,080 --> 00:36:21,360 Speaker 2: Tonight? 718 00:36:21,480 --> 00:36:24,640 Speaker 3: UMass has lost two consecutive games, including a triple overtime 719 00:36:24,719 --> 00:36:27,839 Speaker 3: loss to Coastal Carolina. That's going to be a good game. 720 00:36:27,880 --> 00:36:31,280 Speaker 3: Tonight tips off at seven pm. Kentucky tries to bounce 721 00:36:31,360 --> 00:36:35,800 Speaker 3: back after getting beaten by Florida. I felt like Kentucky 722 00:36:35,800 --> 00:36:37,400 Speaker 3: in that game, and I have not looked this up. 723 00:36:37,480 --> 00:36:40,280 Speaker 3: I felt like Kentucky might have missed twenty five layups 724 00:36:40,280 --> 00:36:42,279 Speaker 3: in that game. A lot of opportunities at the rim 725 00:36:42,320 --> 00:36:46,160 Speaker 3: against a very good Florida team on the defensive end. 726 00:36:46,719 --> 00:36:50,319 Speaker 3: The game never got completely out of hand. The game 727 00:36:50,360 --> 00:36:53,200 Speaker 3: never felt like it was there for the taking. Kentucky 728 00:36:53,200 --> 00:36:55,720 Speaker 3: and Georgia tonight tip off at nine o'clock. Pregame coverage 729 00:36:55,719 --> 00:36:59,279 Speaker 3: at seven thirty on ESPN fifteen thirty. And Ohio State, 730 00:36:59,320 --> 00:37:00,719 Speaker 3: a team that I think is one of the most 731 00:37:00,719 --> 00:37:03,760 Speaker 3: interesting in the country coming off that neutral site loss 732 00:37:03,800 --> 00:37:09,919 Speaker 3: to Virginia. They battle Wisconsin tonight at eight thirty. We're 733 00:37:09,920 --> 00:37:12,239 Speaker 3: guests free the rest of the way. We do have 734 00:37:12,280 --> 00:37:15,400 Speaker 3: to talk about tanking because it's being brought up in 735 00:37:15,440 --> 00:37:18,360 Speaker 3: the NBA right now. You know, the Red's not that 736 00:37:18,520 --> 00:37:21,920 Speaker 3: long ago, essentially tanked, and everybody seems to be okay 737 00:37:21,960 --> 00:37:25,160 Speaker 3: with it now. That's coming up on ESPN fifteen thirty. 738 00:37:25,160 --> 00:37:29,680 Speaker 1: Cincinnati Sports Station Cincinnati's ESPN fifteen thirty. 739 00:37:30,640 --> 00:37:34,960 Speaker 6: Traffic from the UC Health Traffic Center. Around forty percent 740 00:37:35,000 --> 00:37:39,040 Speaker 6: of cancers are preventable. Lifestyle changes and screenings can make 741 00:37:39,040 --> 00:37:42,200 Speaker 6: a difference. Call five one three five eighty five UCCC 742 00:37:42,960 --> 00:37:46,399 Speaker 6: northbound seventy five. An accident has now been cleared from 743 00:37:46,440 --> 00:37:48,920 Speaker 6: the off ramp to State Route one twenty two in 744 00:37:49,040 --> 00:37:52,439 Speaker 6: middle Town. However, a new accident in on Beakman that's 745 00:37:52,520 --> 00:37:56,040 Speaker 6: over at Coal Raine and slow traffic northbound seventy five 746 00:37:56,120 --> 00:37:59,120 Speaker 6: between Mitchell and Paddock Road. That is a ten minute 747 00:37:59,120 --> 00:38:01,800 Speaker 6: delay Right now. I'm at EAZELK with traffic. 748 00:38:02,040 --> 00:38:06,040 Speaker 3: This report possible possible Eastern Conference Finals preview. 749 00:38:07,480 --> 00:38:09,360 Speaker 2: I got Detroit to win the East, though. 750 00:38:10,120 --> 00:38:11,160 Speaker 4: So I don't think you want that. 751 00:38:12,360 --> 00:38:14,000 Speaker 2: You don't think I want Detroit to win the East. 752 00:38:14,120 --> 00:38:16,000 Speaker 2: I don't know. I don't think you won Nicks. 753 00:38:16,120 --> 00:38:17,319 Speaker 4: This is an East Promis final. 754 00:38:18,840 --> 00:38:21,239 Speaker 3: I'll be happy to be in the Eastern Conference Finals. 755 00:38:22,640 --> 00:38:28,240 Speaker 3: I'd rather play Cleveland rather play Boston without Jason Tatum. 756 00:38:28,440 --> 00:38:33,880 Speaker 3: I Detroit Detroit man like I hate to be this guy. 757 00:38:34,160 --> 00:38:37,279 Speaker 3: When they played New York in the postseason last year 758 00:38:37,360 --> 00:38:41,280 Speaker 3: in a tough six game series, winning two games Detroit 759 00:38:41,280 --> 00:38:46,120 Speaker 3: did at MSG and getting an unfriendly whistle in Game. 760 00:38:45,960 --> 00:38:50,280 Speaker 2: Four, I don't know. I don't know anybody. 761 00:38:49,840 --> 00:38:52,760 Speaker 3: Who watched that series or watched that team who didn't 762 00:38:52,760 --> 00:38:55,400 Speaker 3: believe they were due to take a major step forward 763 00:38:55,440 --> 00:38:59,239 Speaker 3: this year, and they have, and assuming they don't have 764 00:38:59,280 --> 00:39:03,200 Speaker 3: more players get suspended for the postseason, I don't know 765 00:39:03,239 --> 00:39:05,759 Speaker 3: how you beat them four times. Boston's a wild card 766 00:39:05,800 --> 00:39:08,360 Speaker 3: because that they get Tatum back, and they're fully healthy. 767 00:39:08,400 --> 00:39:10,840 Speaker 3: With the season that Jalen Brown has had, it's something 768 00:39:10,880 --> 00:39:14,279 Speaker 3: else entirely. I would not trust Cleveland to beat them 769 00:39:14,280 --> 00:39:17,239 Speaker 3: four times, and I would not trust New York defensively 770 00:39:18,160 --> 00:39:21,319 Speaker 3: to beat them four times. New York's best is better 771 00:39:21,360 --> 00:39:24,520 Speaker 3: than everybody else's best in the East, but I think 772 00:39:24,520 --> 00:39:26,040 Speaker 3: they'd have to play at their best to beat them 773 00:39:26,040 --> 00:39:28,399 Speaker 3: four times, and I don't think they're capable of doing that. 774 00:39:29,360 --> 00:39:33,440 Speaker 3: So the last time they played Detroit one by fifty 775 00:39:33,520 --> 00:39:37,360 Speaker 3: and both teams were without key guys, it was a thorough, 776 00:39:37,719 --> 00:39:42,040 Speaker 3: thorough butt kicking. And we'll see if something similar happens 777 00:39:42,080 --> 00:39:45,520 Speaker 3: on Thursday. I haven't looked at this, but for the 778 00:39:45,560 --> 00:39:48,600 Speaker 3: first half. For much of the first half of the season, Detroit, 779 00:39:48,920 --> 00:39:53,480 Speaker 3: despite leading from the jump in the Eastern Conference, was 780 00:39:53,880 --> 00:39:57,560 Speaker 3: not the betting favorite to win the East and there 781 00:39:57,640 --> 00:40:00,400 Speaker 3: was like really good value to be had. I'm guessing 782 00:40:00,520 --> 00:40:02,160 Speaker 3: that's changed at least a little bit. 783 00:40:02,360 --> 00:40:02,960 Speaker 2: We'll see. 784 00:40:03,520 --> 00:40:05,200 Speaker 3: So that's what's happening in the NBA. Coming up on 785 00:40:05,239 --> 00:40:06,920 Speaker 3: five o'clock on ESPN fifteen thirty