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Speaker 1: I always look forward to this time. We because get

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Speaker 1: to talk to Daniel Davis, retired Lieutenant Colonel Daniel Davis

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Speaker 1: doing the Daniel Davis Deep Dive. Welcome back, Daniel Davis,

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Speaker 1: my friend. It's good to have you on the show.

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Speaker 2: There's always a pleasure to be here, Brian. Okay, so

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Speaker 2: you have two sides to an agreement. You're in a

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Speaker 2: ceasefire Israel on one side, i'mas on the other. Obviously,

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Speaker 2: devil's always in the details. But if you agree to

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Speaker 2: a ceasefire and you declare that a ceasefire is in place,

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Speaker 2: if you start shooting at each other and killing each other,

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Speaker 2: doesn't that definitionally mean there is not a ceasefire in place?

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Speaker 1: Daniel. I'm struggling with this because everyone keeps talking about

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Speaker 1: keeping these ceasefire agreement together and we need to hold

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Speaker 1: keep onto the hold onto the ceasefire agreement. Seems to

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Speaker 1: me both sides just maybe capitulated. I don't know, Daniel,

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Speaker 1: That's why we have you. Welcome.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, that that does seem to be what's happening, because

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Speaker 2: it's it's definitely not just one side or the other.

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Speaker 2: Even President Trump himself and he was acknowledging some of

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Speaker 2: this said, I don't think it was the Humas leadership

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Speaker 2: per se. It may have just been some rogue elements.

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Speaker 2: And if that's the case, and I actually don't doubt

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Speaker 2: it that israelis I actually showed some video and it

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Speaker 2: would seemed pretty clear there was some armed men in

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Speaker 2: the strip that were heading towards some of their troops.

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Speaker 2: But then their response was I think completely out of

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Speaker 2: proportion of anything. They bombed all kinds of other areas

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Speaker 2: of the strip, killed sixty people, not just the ones

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Speaker 2: who did the killing. And if someone fires in it

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Speaker 2: in a violation of the ceasefire, then by all means

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Speaker 2: to go after them because it's authorized according to the

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Speaker 2: rules of engagement. But you can't go after somebody else.

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Speaker 2: It's not even related to that because the prompt's probably right.

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Speaker 2: It probably wasn't the Hummas because the organization it self

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Speaker 2: has no motivation to do this because it can only

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Speaker 2: be bad for them. But there are some out of

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Speaker 2: control elements, as there were on ten to seven. By

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Speaker 2: the way, it was not all Hamas. It was some

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Speaker 2: out of control elements that killed a majority of the

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Speaker 2: non military people. So this has been an enduring problem

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Speaker 2: over there and one of the things that they're going

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Speaker 2: to have to get a handle on.

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Speaker 1: So it's just reflective of the fact that Hamas is

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Speaker 1: not the cohesive, connected organization that they're presented to the

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Speaker 1: world as I mean, I joked about this, I think

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Speaker 1: last week when you and I talked. If you're familiar

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Speaker 1: with the movie Monty Python Life of Brian, they have

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Speaker 1: all these splitter organizations. Every single one of them doesn't

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Speaker 1: want the Romans, you know, this is in Jesus's times,

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Speaker 1: but they can't get along together. So we have various

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Speaker 1: elements who all hate Israel, let's say, but they're not

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Speaker 1: necessarily beneath the Hamas controlled umbrella, so they're free to

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Speaker 1: roam about and do whatever the hell they want.

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Speaker 2: Well, that's a good part of it, because there is

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Speaker 2: for sure widespread hatred of Israel inside the strip, and frankly,

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Speaker 2: it's not hard to understand why when the whole place

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Speaker 2: has been turned into a moonscape and everybody has lost

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Speaker 2: their home and their way of life, etc. And that's

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Speaker 2: just an you can't escape that kind of an outcome

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Speaker 2: when that's what happens for two years. But the problem

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Speaker 2: is that they're not, you know, this monolithic group. And

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Speaker 2: also you have inside this is also not surprising. You

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Speaker 2: have a lot of the Palestine and people absolutely in

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Speaker 2: sense and hate Hamas more than they hate Israel because

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Speaker 2: they realize that until this group agrees to stop and

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Speaker 2: leave the place, they are going to continue to be attacked.

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Speaker 2: And they can blame Israel for dropping the bombs, and

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Speaker 2: there's some credit or there's some credibility to that, but

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Speaker 2: it's also true and they recognize it that as long

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Speaker 2: as Hamas is resisting, they're the ones who are paying

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Speaker 2: the price. So they're frankly sick of all the combatants

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Speaker 2: and they want them all out.

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Speaker 1: Well, recognizing that we have this you know, splitter for

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Speaker 1: this faction issue maybe going on. They also are having

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Speaker 1: a problem finding or delivering the deceased hostages, and Hamas

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Speaker 1: keeps saying, listen, we're trying. We just don't know where

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Speaker 1: all of them are. And I think you had made

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Speaker 1: the point last week, and it's an excellent one. You know,

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Speaker 1: since everything has been bombed, it is certainly possible that

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Speaker 1: some of these hostages are buried beneath rubble somewhere, and

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Speaker 1: Hamas doesn't necessarily know where they are. But even if

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Speaker 1: they do, how to get them out.

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Speaker 2: Right, and they apparently do know where most of them,

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Speaker 2: maybe even all of them are, because I know where

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Speaker 2: they were held, But there continues to be a very

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Speaker 2: difficult situation. And listen, there's again no motivation for Hamas

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Speaker 2: to hold off on this. They gained literally nothing from

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Speaker 2: this once they gave the last of the living hostages back,

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Speaker 2: that was the end of any kind of leverage that

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Speaker 2: they had. So there's no motivation to hold this back.

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Speaker 2: And even the International Committee of the Red Cross has validated

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Speaker 2: from within the Strip that these places where these remaining

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Speaker 2: hostages are are literally buried under buildings that the Israeli

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Speaker 2: defense forces have dropped over the two years, etc. So

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Speaker 2: they've got to bring in heavy equipment that they've got

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Speaker 2: to have a peaceful situation so that they can come

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Speaker 2: in and excavate these areas, and it's just going to

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Speaker 2: take some time.

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Speaker 1: There's clearly going to need to be like a post

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Speaker 1: World War two rebuilding kind of thing going on. That's

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Speaker 1: going to require leadership and some sort of independent force

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Speaker 1: that can substitute itself in the place of the Hamas leadership.

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Speaker 1: If I can use that term loosely. Hamas has to

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Speaker 1: move out. Some acceptable force is going to have to

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Speaker 1: be there. What do you think is going to be

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Speaker 1: acceptable to the Palaestinian people living in Gaza? Clearly Israel

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Speaker 1: running that is not going to work for them. They're

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Speaker 1: going to want some sort of maybe perhaps international body.

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Speaker 1: What do you think is going to come from this, Daniel?

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Speaker 2: This is the absolute biggest issue that has to be

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Speaker 2: overcome now for there ever to be any peace here

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Speaker 2: at all. Everybody said Trump in fact, it was talking about,

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Speaker 2: you know, peace in the Middle East and all that,

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Speaker 2: and signed that Charmel shak Egypt, et cetera. But all

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Speaker 2: that was signed. There was phase one, which is basically

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Speaker 2: a ceasefire and an exchange of hostages on both sides,

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Speaker 2: and that has been completed. All of the hard part

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Speaker 2: that Phase two and beyond, which is substantial, hasn't even

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Speaker 2: been negotiated yet. So none of those issues have been

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Speaker 2: accepted or resolved by the two sides. And it's not

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Speaker 2: even just what the Palastinian people will accept on their

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Speaker 2: it's what the Israeli forces will accept either, and they

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Speaker 2: both have to accept it. And that is really really

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Speaker 2: hard to imagine how both sides are going to find

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Speaker 2: somebody they can accept on a long term negotia leadership.

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Speaker 1: Well, is it possible that leaders from the countries who've

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Speaker 1: entered into the Abraham Accords or at least leaning toward

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Speaker 1: maybe entertaining that notion of let's work collectively. Let's have

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Speaker 1: our differences, but let's work collectively for our economic benefit.

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Speaker 1: That seems to me too. You could get a draw

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Speaker 1: from various Arab countries in the region that could successfully

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Speaker 1: manage the situation. Might be at there's.

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Speaker 2: Two separate things at place here, and you're one hundred

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Speaker 2: percent right on that. In fact, in the news just

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Speaker 2: this morning, Egypt has said that they would send a

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Speaker 2: contingent of up to four thousand along with Indonesia, and

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Speaker 2: I can't remember the other two countries. There's four countries.

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Speaker 2: Azerbaijan might have been one of the other ones, or

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Speaker 2: maybe it was our Menia. Sorry to get those confused sometimes,

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Speaker 2: but those those countries have said, yes, we'll do the

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Speaker 2: interim stabilization force. What is going to bring initial peace

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Speaker 2: to the place, And that's completely separate from who's going

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Speaker 2: to govern the Gauza strip from the Palestinian side on

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Speaker 2: a go forward basis, And as you may know, that's

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Speaker 2: one of the big sticking points for the Israeli side

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Speaker 2: because many in the government don't want there to be

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Speaker 2: any kind of permanent residents of the Palacinian enclave. They

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Speaker 2: still harbored the idea that we want to get them

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Speaker 2: all out, So having them agree to whoever's going to

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Speaker 2: be there is one of the most difficult things that has.

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Speaker 1: To be negotiating, and I of course understand the challenges

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Speaker 1: that presents. But if you were if you found this

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Speaker 1: acceptable peacekeeping force that could stabilize the region, you could

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Speaker 1: maybe sometime down the road establish enough peace and enough

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Speaker 1: you know, stability to maybe have an election.

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Speaker 2: Well, yeah, and for sure that's going to end up happening.

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Speaker 2: You may recall that did happen in two thousand and five,

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Speaker 2: which is when Hamas was initially elected, and then everything

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Speaker 2: broke down after that, and we had, of course the

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Speaker 2: two thousand and six war in Lebanon, which then had

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Speaker 2: ramifications inside the strip, and then Hamas quit having elections

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Speaker 2: after that, right, people didn't get any more choices after that.

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Speaker 2: That will certainly happen in the future here, But there

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Speaker 2: is additional issues beyond those really hard ones, like what

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Speaker 2: about the region, Because Israel wants to expand the Abraham courts.

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Speaker 2: Trump wants to expand the Abraham courts, but the regions,

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Speaker 2: the countries in the regions say for that to happen,

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Speaker 2: like Saudi Arabia, the kingpin of all this, they say,

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Speaker 2: there has to be some kind of Palestinian state, which

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Speaker 2: Israel still adamantly opposed to. So the region, the countries

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Speaker 2: in the region absolutely do want and they have been

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Speaker 2: emphatic about saying we want peace throughout the region with Israel,

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Speaker 2: but it has to be a mutual piece.

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Speaker 1: And there again is one of the big difficulties. Well,

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Speaker 1: I think we'll be living with this reality for a while.

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Speaker 1: Daniel Davis ain't going to solve itself between now and

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Speaker 1: next Tuesday. I'm sure about that, dam Thank you so,

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Speaker 1: Daniel Davis. We cannot have a conversation without addressing the

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Speaker 1: current status Russia and Ukraine. I thought I had seen

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Speaker 1: earlier in this week or very recently that Trump basically

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Speaker 1: told Zelunski, dude, you're gonna have to give up some

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Speaker 1: land to negotiate a peace on this. I know a

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Speaker 1: Zelunski doesn't want to do that. But it sounded also

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Speaker 1: like the idea of US giving them Tomahawk missile is

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Speaker 1: something that you and I both agree on. Bad idea.

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Speaker 1: That's not going to happen. So where are we with

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Speaker 1: Russia and Ukraine? Daniel Davis, Yeah, that's definitely not going

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Speaker 1: to happen. Trump unambiguously said that. I don't know why

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Speaker 1: he ever entertained it, because in the first of last week,

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Speaker 1: even before you and I visited last Tuesday, he said

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Speaker 1: I might, I might just give them up, and then

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Speaker 1: on Wednesday he said, yeah, I'm not going to do that,

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Speaker 1: So that was pretty clear to his Zelensky.

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Speaker 2: I guess he was just posturing. But the bottom line

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Speaker 2: is now Zelensky's going back and he's still trying to

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Speaker 2: get with his European friends to find other things to

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Speaker 2: give him, etcetera. While they're looking for ways to increase

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Speaker 2: a nineteenth sanctions package. Don't know why they didn't recognize

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Speaker 2: the first eighteen failed, but somehow they think maybe this

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Speaker 2: one will. But in terms of the bigger meeting that

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Speaker 2: was agreed to by Trump with Putin, there's supposed to

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Speaker 2: be a ministerial meeting between serogate Lavrov and Rocker Rubio

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Speaker 2: and then Legy was going to be a Trump a

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Speaker 2: Putin meeting in Hungary if they come about. And as

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Speaker 2: of this morning, there was some contentious conversation reporting between

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Speaker 2: Rubio and Lavrov because they're still pretty far apart on

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Speaker 2: what the two sides we'll both agree to. So this

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Speaker 2: is no looking like it's going to be solved anytime soon.

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Speaker 2: By next Tuesday.

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Speaker 1: Either we'll be talking about it next Tuesday. Then Daniel

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Speaker 1: Davis Deep Dive wherever you get your podcast, find Daniel

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Speaker 1: Davis doing what he does throughout the week. And you know,

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Speaker 1: I can't thank you enough. I love the time you

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Speaker 1: get to spend another day together, Daniel. It's truly informative,

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Speaker 1: and obviously you're pretty good at explaining some complex stuff

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Speaker 1: in a very easy to understand manner, and I truly

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Speaker 1: appreciate that. Until next week, sir, have a wonderful week.

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Speaker 1: My friend. Blame to you, my friend. See you next Tuesday.

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Speaker 1: Eighty forty right now fifty five kr CD Talks