WEBVTT - Daniel Davis Deep Dive

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<v Speaker 1>829-55-KRC, the talk station.

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<v Speaker 2>829-55-KRC, the talk station. Tuesday, it's that time of week.

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<v Speaker 2>We get the alliterative Daniel Davis deep dive. Retired Lieutenant

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<v Speaker 2>Colonel Daniel Davis with war analysis. He does a wonderful

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<v Speaker 2>job and get the benefit of his company every Tuesday

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<v Speaker 2>at this time. Welcome back, sir. It is always a

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<v Speaker 2>pleasure to see you.

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<v Speaker 1>And it is always a pleasure to be here with you, Brian.

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<v Speaker 1>Thank you.

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<v Speaker 2>And on behalf of my family, myself personally, my entire

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<v Speaker 2>listening audience, thank you for your service to our country

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<v Speaker 2>and an early happy Veterans Day, Daniel Davis.

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<v Speaker 1>Thank you so much for saying that, Brian. It's most appreciated.

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<v Speaker 2>Tremendous respect we have here for the American military on

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<v Speaker 2>the morning show. Donald Trump declared yesterday that Iran's military

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<v Speaker 2>is defeated effectively. That's fine. We blew up their Navy.

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<v Speaker 2>We hear that all the time. We blew up their

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<v Speaker 2>Air Force. That's traditional warfare. Now, we all acknowledge that

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<v Speaker 2>Iran retains the ability to create drones, make drones, and

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<v Speaker 2>precision missiles, and they have that capability. Isn't that really

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<v Speaker 2>what modern warfare is anymore, Daniel Davis? I mean, I

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<v Speaker 2>don't want to paint with too broad of a brush,

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<v Speaker 2>but If you can build that stuff, you know, like

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<v Speaker 2>Castro in the hills with machine guns, you can effectively

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<v Speaker 2>fight off an entire military. It seems to have some

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<v Speaker 2>I mean, we can look back through history with this happening.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, it all has to do with the the. military

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<v Speaker 3>factors at play in a given geographic area, not just conceptually.

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<v Speaker 3>Because conceptually, we have a great ground force and we

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<v Speaker 3>have a great joint force. And on paper, you're like, okay,

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<v Speaker 3>if you put this force that has this stuff and

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<v Speaker 3>this side that doesn't even have a Navy, it doesn't

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<v Speaker 3>have a conventional air force, yeah, it's going to get

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<v Speaker 3>wiped out. Problem is that piece of paper doesn't matter.

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<v Speaker 3>It matters what's happened on the ground. And on the

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<v Speaker 3>ground in this terrain, in this environment to where we're

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<v Speaker 3>attacking into the Iranian side, and they're the defenders in

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<v Speaker 3>the mountains with these drone and missile factories under the ground,

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<v Speaker 3>not just the launch points, but the actual production facilities,

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<v Speaker 3>there's almost no way that you.

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<v Speaker 1>Can stop that.

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<v Speaker 3>In fact, there is no way you can stop it

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<v Speaker 3>with just air power, because you can't get underneath all

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<v Speaker 3>of those mountains. You can't get underneath any of them,

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<v Speaker 3>much less all of them. And you have to get

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<v Speaker 3>under all of them if you ever want to actually

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<v Speaker 3>get back safe control of the Strait of Hormuz. We

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<v Speaker 3>claim that we are in complete control of the Strait.

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<v Speaker 3>Pete Hicks just said it just a few minutes ago

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<v Speaker 3>in a press briefing, but we don't.

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<v Speaker 1>We control Iranian side. We do.

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<v Speaker 3>We control them getting their oil and all that stuff,

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<v Speaker 3>and that's legit. We are putting a severe constraint on that.

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<v Speaker 3>But that's just half of the equation. It's not even

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<v Speaker 3>half because they have influence over the stuff that we

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<v Speaker 3>want to get out. And that is, despite what's being

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<v Speaker 3>claimed by the White House, it's a fraction of what

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<v Speaker 3>it was pre-war.

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<v Speaker 1>It's not nothing. It is decent.

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<v Speaker 3>It's 7, 8 to 10, sometimes million barrels a day.

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<v Speaker 1>But it's not enough.

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<v Speaker 3>And until we can get that cleared out, and because

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<v Speaker 3>Iran continues to hit tankers to show that, no, we

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<v Speaker 3>still have the ability to decide what gets out and

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<v Speaker 3>what doesn't. And until we change that, we're going to

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<v Speaker 3>be in trouble because we can't do this forever.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, and all of that, and correct me if I'm wrong,

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<v Speaker 2>my recollection of our multiple conversations over the last couple

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<v Speaker 2>of years, at least since this conflict's been going on,

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<v Speaker 2>nothing has changed pre- and post-elections. American people obviously registered

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<v Speaker 2>their dissent on some level with the vote last Tuesday.

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<v Speaker 2>But do you think the Iranians' position has changed? Do

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<v Speaker 2>they feel like they're coming to the table with a

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<v Speaker 2>greater position of strength? Because Trump said, you know, they're

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<v Speaker 2>talking to us and they're talking politely, talking about negotiations,

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<v Speaker 2>I guess, being facilitated by the Qatari government. But the

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<v Speaker 2>bronze Supreme National Security Council came out yesterday and said,

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<v Speaker 2>wait a minute, what are you talking about? Fold your hands.

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<v Speaker 2>Stop manufacturing fake news about imaginary talks. Stop denying things.

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<v Speaker 2>the West Asian new order time to surrender to the

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<v Speaker 2>seven conditions Iran has repeatedly set out. I don't know how,

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<v Speaker 2>and going back to the original memorandum of understanding, you

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<v Speaker 2>and I talked and scratched our heads over the inclusion

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<v Speaker 2>of military activities by the Israelis. They weren't signatories, but

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<v Speaker 2>here the Iranians are demanding that military action, all of it.

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<v Speaker 2>And particularly in Lebanon, um, Are we bringing the Israelis

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<v Speaker 2>in to sit down with this particular settlement negotiation, Daniel Davis,

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<v Speaker 2>or are they asking for something that we can't bring

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<v Speaker 2>to the table?

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, I mean, in large measure, that is correct.

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<v Speaker 3>They are asking for something that we apparently don't have

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<v Speaker 3>the ability to deliver.

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<v Speaker 1>We've tried several times, and.

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<v Speaker 3>It's blown up in our face every time because Israel

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<v Speaker 3>is passionately focused on what they can see. Because it's

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<v Speaker 3>not just Hezbollah in Lebanon, it's also Hamas in Gaza.

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<v Speaker 3>They're both mentioned by name. And of course, those are

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<v Speaker 3>highly emotional issues for the Israelis. It doesn't matter whether

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<v Speaker 3>we think it's a good idea or a bad one.

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<v Speaker 3>It is profoundly important to the Israeli government and its people.

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<v Speaker 3>So there's no chance at all that they would submit

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<v Speaker 3>to any of that. So it's almost dead on arrival

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<v Speaker 3>as it is. And it's interesting, the sequence of things yesterday,

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<v Speaker 3>there was an al-Arabia protest report out that said that

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<v Speaker 3>the two sides were close to a deal, that President

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<v Speaker 3>Trump was going to be willing to have some unfrozen assets,

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<v Speaker 3>potentially up to $ 9 billion. There was going to be

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<v Speaker 3>some sanctions relief. The blockade, both blockades were going to

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<v Speaker 3>be lifted, et cetera. They're working on it.

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<v Speaker 1>That's what it was claimed.

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<v Speaker 3>Then about an hour or two later, General Rezaei was

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<v Speaker 3>the first to come out with that statement that you

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<v Speaker 3>just mentioned, where he says.

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<v Speaker 1>Well, y'all, this is all fake. There's no negotiations. There's

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<v Speaker 1>no talks. We're not close to anything.

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<v Speaker 3>There are some talks, and I have at a very

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<v Speaker 3>good level in the White House, that there are some lower-level.

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<v Speaker 1>Talks between the U.S. and Iran, but they're just conversations.

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<v Speaker 3>They're not even on the decision-maker level.

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<v Speaker 1>It's pretty low-level, but they're happening.

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<v Speaker 3>But the problem is, what they're saying in private is

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<v Speaker 3>the same thing they're saying in public. Which is, there

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<v Speaker 3>are seven terms you have to come to, which is

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<v Speaker 3>all the terms of the Memorandum of Understanding up front,

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<v Speaker 3>and then and only then they say they'll talk about

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<v Speaker 3>the nuclear situation. What it looks to me like is

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<v Speaker 3>that they have concluded, right or wrong, that they have

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<v Speaker 3>the dominant military position in this fight with these circumstances,

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<v Speaker 3>and that they feel that they can endure the pain

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<v Speaker 3>of the blockade that we're putting on them much longer

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<v Speaker 3>than we can endure the continued pain economically throughout the

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<v Speaker 3>rest of the world, and it's a.

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<v Speaker 1>Big game of chicken.

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<v Speaker 3>So I don't think that they're going to give in

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<v Speaker 3>at all, which means it's probably likely we're going to

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<v Speaker 3>end up either completely submitting to what Iran wants, minus

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<v Speaker 3>those two, because we can't deliver those, or we're probably

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<v Speaker 3>going to end up back in conflict.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, do you think the Iranians, and you just mentioned

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<v Speaker 2>what their perception of their position being superior to the

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<v Speaker 2>United States, at least as the current situation stands, you

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<v Speaker 2>perceive that as accurate? I mean, it sounds to me

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<v Speaker 2>like it is, isn't it?

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<v Speaker 3>That's certainly how I see it, because offensively, we cannot

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<v Speaker 3>go back in.

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<v Speaker 1>I saw again.

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<v Speaker 3>Yesterday Jack Keane is practically begging Fox News president through

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<v Speaker 3>Fox News to go back to kinetic. I've seen other

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<v Speaker 3>people talk and say, no, we can still win this.

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<v Speaker 3>It's we can actually Pete Hegseth is in that category there. No,

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<v Speaker 3>we can win because we have this incredible military. And

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<v Speaker 3>somehow these guys calculate that it would be different that

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<v Speaker 3>we have a different target set. We can go after

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<v Speaker 3>than we did the first time. Keane at least says

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<v Speaker 3>there will be something different about it. But what he's

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<v Speaker 3>talking about going after, it'll blow stuff up on the

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<v Speaker 3>ground in Iran, and it'll hurt people, it'll kill people,

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<v Speaker 3>but it's not going to do anything to their military

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<v Speaker 3>capacity with the drones and the missiles. And if you

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<v Speaker 3>can't stop that, it doesn't matter what else you blow up.

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<v Speaker 1>But that's the mentality.

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<v Speaker 3>And I'll tell you one last thing, Brian, is that

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<v Speaker 3>I also conclude that the Iranian side is saying, I'm

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<v Speaker 3>okay going back to conflict. And I think that's why

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<v Speaker 3>they keep hitting ships in the Persian Gulf trying to

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<v Speaker 3>draw us back in because I think that they want

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<v Speaker 3>us to do that so that we will suffer a

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<v Speaker 3>really big loss, use the remainder of our long-range interceptors

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<v Speaker 3>and the long-range cruise missiles, and end up having to

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<v Speaker 3>leave in disgrace without any kind of a deal. On

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<v Speaker 3>a losing end, I think that's what they're seeking for,

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<v Speaker 3>even if it's short-term pain.

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<v Speaker 2>I must observe that they may be sort of Rasputin

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<v Speaker 2>whispering in an ear. They may be getting that sort

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<v Speaker 2>of position from the Chinese or the Russians or anybody

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<v Speaker 2>else who doesn't like us. Yeah, drag the U.S.

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<v Speaker 3>In there.

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<v Speaker 2>They're already short on supplies. We could sure use the help.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, who's to blame them from their perspective? because they're like, yeah,

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<v Speaker 3>I mean, they don't have to actually directly fight us.

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<v Speaker 3>It weakens our global position, which then by default elevates

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<v Speaker 3>theirs and makes them look better to the rest of

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<v Speaker 3>the world without having to do a thing, because Iran

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<v Speaker 3>is perfectly capable of inflicting these pains, mostly on their own.

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<v Speaker 3>I'm sure they're getting help from both of them to

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<v Speaker 3>one degree or another, a lot from Russia on drones

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<v Speaker 3>and technology for rockets. But Most of the stuff they

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<v Speaker 3>do on their own.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, and I'm sure you obviously encounter this all the time,

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<v Speaker 2>as do I. Well, we just need to go in

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<v Speaker 2>there and get it done. Just go in there and

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<v Speaker 2>get it done. And I don't know really what that

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<v Speaker 2>means in the hearts and minds of people who tell

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<v Speaker 2>me that, but my view is if you move aside

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<v Speaker 2>from the option of putting boots on the ground, which

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<v Speaker 2>I don't think anybody wants or needs, and you have

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<v Speaker 2>talked about that all the time, it would be a

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<v Speaker 2>bloodbath considering how dangerous and horrific and sizable the terrain is.

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<v Speaker 2>But if we could have just gone in and blown

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<v Speaker 2>something up absent nuclear weapons.

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<v Speaker 1>we would have.

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<v Speaker 2>Done it already, wouldn't we? I mean, people would keep throwing, oh,

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<v Speaker 2>the Moab, just throw a mother of all bombs on that.

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<v Speaker 2>That wouldn't do anything to Pickaxe Mountain. I mean, they

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<v Speaker 2>would have done it.

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<v Speaker 1>It wouldn't.

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<v Speaker 3>In fact, we had Professor Ted Postle on the show

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<v Speaker 3>who did a detailed analysis of what would happen if

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<v Speaker 3>we hit Pickaxe Mountain with our biggest nuclear weapon. And

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<v Speaker 3>it's like a 450 kiloton weapon. And there is a

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<v Speaker 3>decent chance that it could actually knock out the facility itself.

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<v Speaker 3>If it was a pinpoint strike right above where the

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<v Speaker 3>facility was, and we don't know that for sure because

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<v Speaker 3>it could be anywhere under that mountain complex, but if

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<v Speaker 3>we did, and it was only about, I think it

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<v Speaker 3>was like 200, 300 meters below the surface, which is

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<v Speaker 3>pretty substantial in a granite mountain, you can potentially knock

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<v Speaker 3>it out, but only a direct hit.

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<v Speaker 1>But the fallout would be catastrophic.

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<v Speaker 3>And if you track a tactical nuclear weapon, It's going

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<v Speaker 3>to bounce off the top. It's just going to be

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<v Speaker 3>a little bit more than a conventional. And unless we're

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<v Speaker 3>ready to do something, just just I mean, you're talking about,

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<v Speaker 3>you know, the biggest thing we have, which would be

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<v Speaker 3>just catastrophic.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, we would be the pariah of the world

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<v Speaker 1>if we did that.

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<v Speaker 2>Right. And again, if that option was legitimately available without

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<v Speaker 2>becoming the pariah of the world, I guarantee it would

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<v Speaker 2>have been done already under this administration.

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<v Speaker 3>Real quick, Brian, it wouldn't matter because they still have

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<v Speaker 3>30 some odd 50 some odd other sites.

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<v Speaker 1>So even that wouldn't matter.

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<v Speaker 2>And pivoting over, do you think the election in Israel,

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<v Speaker 2>the change of leadership, is going to have any impact?

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<v Speaker 2>Do you understand which direction new administration might be going

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<v Speaker 2>vis-a-vis the various conflicts we've been talking about?

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, it's not going to change the direction of anything.

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<v Speaker 3>It's just going to change kind of how they do it,

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<v Speaker 3>because whether it's Eisencott or Benjamin Netanyahu, they're generally of

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<v Speaker 3>the same mindset about what.

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<v Speaker 1>They need to do in the near term.

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<v Speaker 3>Eisencott seems to be a little bit less aggressive about

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<v Speaker 3>on some of the longer-range targets and more focused on

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<v Speaker 3>the near-term things, like around his borders or whatever. Of course,

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<v Speaker 3>on Gaza and Lebanon, I don't see any change at all.

0:11:22.929 --> 0:11:25.070
<v Speaker 2>Daniel Davis, Deep Dive. Find him where you find your

0:11:25.090 --> 0:11:28.109
<v Speaker 2>regular podcasts. iHeartMedia is one example. We always carry the

0:11:28.130 --> 0:11:31.430
<v Speaker 2>podcast and tune in every Tuesday at 8.30 for Retired

0:11:31.470 --> 0:11:35.270
<v Speaker 2>Lieutenant Colonel Daniel Davis. Again, on behalf of everyone that's listening,

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<v Speaker 2>thank you for your service to our country, and I

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<v Speaker 2>hope you have a wonderful and enjoyable Veterans Day tomorrow.

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<v Speaker 1>Thank you a lot, Brian. Most appreciated.

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<v Speaker 2>We'll talk next Tuesday, 841 right now, 55 KRC, the

0:11:45.150 --> 0:11:47.180
<v Speaker 2>talk station. Rick's on the phone. Hang on, buddy. I'll

0:11:47.200 --> 0:11:48.090
<v Speaker 2>take your call in just a minute.