1 00:00:00,720 --> 00:00:02,880 Speaker 1: To night. Michael Brown joins me here the former FEMA 2 00:00:02,920 --> 00:00:03,680 Speaker 1: director talk. 3 00:00:03,480 --> 00:00:06,360 Speaker 2: Show host Michael Brown. Brownie, no Brownie, You're doing a 4 00:00:06,360 --> 00:00:07,000 Speaker 2: heck of a job. 5 00:00:07,160 --> 00:00:11,400 Speaker 1: The Weekend with Michael Brown broadcasting life from Denver, Colorado. 6 00:00:11,440 --> 00:00:13,000 Speaker 1: It's the Weekend with Michael Brown. Glad to have you 7 00:00:13,119 --> 00:00:16,759 Speaker 1: joining the program today. Text line, as usual, as always, 8 00:00:17,079 --> 00:00:19,680 Speaker 1: is always open. The number is three three one zero 9 00:00:19,760 --> 00:00:22,880 Speaker 1: three three three one zero three. Keyword Mike or Michael. 10 00:00:22,920 --> 00:00:25,239 Speaker 1: You can tell me anything or ask me anything. I 11 00:00:25,280 --> 00:00:27,360 Speaker 1: appreciate some of the comments coming in and some of 12 00:00:27,400 --> 00:00:29,680 Speaker 1: the questions. I'll try to get some of those. Be 13 00:00:29,800 --> 00:00:33,279 Speaker 1: sure and follow me on social media platforms X, Instagram, Facebook, 14 00:00:33,320 --> 00:00:36,240 Speaker 1: they're all at Michael D. Brown at Michael D. Brown. 15 00:00:36,760 --> 00:00:38,479 Speaker 1: And then I'd ask you to do me a favor 16 00:00:39,479 --> 00:00:41,800 Speaker 1: if you like what we do on the weekend program. 17 00:00:41,880 --> 00:00:43,839 Speaker 1: I think you like the weekday program. And it's real 18 00:00:43,920 --> 00:00:46,760 Speaker 1: easy to do if you stream or listen on or 19 00:00:46,800 --> 00:00:49,440 Speaker 1: have the iHeart app. If you don't have the iart 20 00:00:49,479 --> 00:00:52,559 Speaker 1: at iHeart app, it's free to you, so go download it, 21 00:00:53,000 --> 00:00:56,560 Speaker 1: download the iHeart app, and then search for a station 22 00:00:56,720 --> 00:01:00,960 Speaker 1: in Denver, Colorado with these call letters KOA. Once you 23 00:01:01,000 --> 00:01:03,440 Speaker 1: find that it's at eight fifty AM or ninety four 24 00:01:03,480 --> 00:01:06,759 Speaker 1: to one FM. You get that as a preset. Then 25 00:01:06,880 --> 00:01:09,640 Speaker 1: every Monday through Friday, from nine to noon Mountain time, 26 00:01:10,120 --> 00:01:12,840 Speaker 1: you can listen to me Monday through Friday, and we 27 00:01:12,880 --> 00:01:14,920 Speaker 1: do pretty much the same thing Monday through Friday that 28 00:01:14,959 --> 00:01:16,959 Speaker 1: we do here on the weekend, although we goof off 29 00:01:17,000 --> 00:01:18,480 Speaker 1: a little bit during the week too, so we have 30 00:01:19,000 --> 00:01:21,120 Speaker 1: some fun too. But today's not to day to really 31 00:01:21,120 --> 00:01:25,160 Speaker 1: have any fun. I'm going to bring you up to 32 00:01:25,240 --> 00:01:29,160 Speaker 1: date on a few things that have happened since over 33 00:01:29,200 --> 00:01:30,680 Speaker 1: the eye. I mean, I just feel like I'm sitting 34 00:01:30,680 --> 00:01:33,680 Speaker 1: in a well. I need is a ticker tape in here. 35 00:01:35,400 --> 00:01:38,319 Speaker 1: But before we do, I want to go back to 36 00:01:38,400 --> 00:01:43,760 Speaker 1: that last second in which I describe that Cutter has 37 00:01:43,800 --> 00:01:49,000 Speaker 1: come out and said something that is unbelievably important. I 38 00:01:49,040 --> 00:01:52,160 Speaker 1: called it an iceberg. It's a very, very large and 39 00:01:52,160 --> 00:01:57,000 Speaker 1: a very dangerous iceberg. And that was the diplomatic statement 40 00:01:57,040 --> 00:02:04,760 Speaker 1: from Cutter in which they point out that they are 41 00:02:04,920 --> 00:02:11,320 Speaker 1: siding with us. Now. During the break, I went on 42 00:02:11,400 --> 00:02:14,919 Speaker 1: to see what I could find about the attack in 43 00:02:15,480 --> 00:02:19,679 Speaker 1: the United Arab Emirates. The most up to date news 44 00:02:19,680 --> 00:02:22,720 Speaker 1: that I can find on that is that an Iranian 45 00:02:22,840 --> 00:02:31,280 Speaker 1: drone was headed to that hotel and flew through between buildings, 46 00:02:31,840 --> 00:02:36,160 Speaker 1: got to the side of that hotel where it exploded. 47 00:02:37,320 --> 00:02:46,120 Speaker 1: That was a deliberate attack on the UAE. So since then, 48 00:02:46,280 --> 00:02:48,760 Speaker 1: as I said, it seems to me that what the 49 00:02:48,800 --> 00:02:55,560 Speaker 1: Iranians are doing are making a huge strategic mistake. This 50 00:02:55,720 --> 00:03:00,399 Speaker 1: is now breaking. The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has now 51 00:03:00,520 --> 00:03:07,080 Speaker 1: joined US operations against the Islamic Republic of Iran. I 52 00:03:07,080 --> 00:03:09,200 Speaker 1: would say that the reignings made a big mistake by 53 00:03:09,200 --> 00:03:13,720 Speaker 1: fighting on the firing on their Arab coalition partners Fox News. 54 00:03:14,880 --> 00:03:17,640 Speaker 1: What I can say is new right now, we're just 55 00:03:17,639 --> 00:03:20,280 Speaker 1: getting word that the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia says they 56 00:03:20,320 --> 00:03:23,720 Speaker 1: will join the US and the operation against the Islamic 57 00:03:23,800 --> 00:03:26,160 Speaker 1: Republic of Iran. They said that this comes in the 58 00:03:26,160 --> 00:03:30,240 Speaker 1: wake of Iran attacking the US based in Saudi Arabia. Well, 59 00:03:30,280 --> 00:03:32,240 Speaker 1: in fact, rather than me tell you, let's just go 60 00:03:32,280 --> 00:03:34,200 Speaker 1: with Fox News itself. 61 00:03:35,560 --> 00:03:38,000 Speaker 2: What I can say is new right now, We're just 62 00:03:38,040 --> 00:03:40,880 Speaker 2: getting word that the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia says they 63 00:03:40,920 --> 00:03:45,200 Speaker 2: will join the US in the operation against the Islamic 64 00:03:45,280 --> 00:03:49,440 Speaker 2: Republic of Iran. They said that this comes in the 65 00:03:49,480 --> 00:03:53,360 Speaker 2: wake of Iran attacking the US base in Saudi Arabia. 66 00:03:54,080 --> 00:03:56,600 Speaker 2: I just spoke to a senior US official who said, 67 00:03:56,600 --> 00:03:59,880 Speaker 2: the Iranians made a big mistake by firing on Arab 68 00:04:00,080 --> 00:04:04,240 Speaker 2: coalition partners. Now they are likely to respond. So by 69 00:04:04,240 --> 00:04:09,400 Speaker 2: iron firing missiles at Uae Bahrain Cutter, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia 70 00:04:09,400 --> 00:04:12,760 Speaker 2: and Jordan, they are now likely to fire back at 71 00:04:12,840 --> 00:04:16,400 Speaker 2: Iranian target. So those coalition partners are now going to 72 00:04:16,640 --> 00:04:22,640 Speaker 2: enter this operation that started off as a US Israeli operation. 73 00:04:22,839 --> 00:04:25,920 Speaker 2: That is very, very significant. And we haven't seen that 74 00:04:26,080 --> 00:04:27,599 Speaker 2: happen in the past. 75 00:04:28,760 --> 00:04:33,680 Speaker 1: No, we have not. Do you understand I shouldn't say 76 00:04:33,720 --> 00:04:38,719 Speaker 1: that sounding condescending. Let's understand what's going on here. We 77 00:04:38,839 --> 00:04:47,680 Speaker 1: started with a joint Israeli US military operation. We now 78 00:04:47,800 --> 00:04:54,800 Speaker 1: have a joint Arab Israeli US operation against a common enemy, 79 00:04:55,240 --> 00:04:59,919 Speaker 1: the Islamic Republic of Iran. That is a huge, insigni 80 00:05:00,000 --> 00:05:04,560 Speaker 1: magnificant development. So let me just stop the clock on 81 00:05:04,600 --> 00:05:08,839 Speaker 1: everything else, because this is the development with the most 82 00:05:08,880 --> 00:05:12,280 Speaker 1: immediate consequence for everyone listening right now, not just in 83 00:05:12,320 --> 00:05:14,960 Speaker 1: the Middle East, but probably but thatt your gas pump. 84 00:05:16,360 --> 00:05:20,360 Speaker 1: Iran's Revolutionary Guard is broadcasting radio messages to all vessels 85 00:05:20,360 --> 00:05:23,320 Speaker 1: in the area, saying that quote, no vessel is allowed 86 00:05:23,360 --> 00:05:25,520 Speaker 1: to pass through the Strait of Horn Moves and that 87 00:05:25,640 --> 00:05:29,000 Speaker 1: passage is prohibited. Now the source for that is PROVDA, 88 00:05:29,120 --> 00:05:31,200 Speaker 1: So take it at you know, take it for whatever 89 00:05:31,240 --> 00:05:37,320 Speaker 1: it's worth. The European Union's as BIDES naval mission, which 90 00:05:37,360 --> 00:05:40,880 Speaker 1: has ships in the region, has confirmed it, reporting that 91 00:05:41,000 --> 00:05:44,839 Speaker 1: vessels are actively receiving these VHF warnings. Now, according to 92 00:05:44,880 --> 00:05:47,919 Speaker 1: Marine Traffic a website, a large number of tankers have 93 00:05:48,120 --> 00:05:51,240 Speaker 1: already anchored safely to the northwest and south of the strait, 94 00:05:51,760 --> 00:05:55,960 Speaker 1: while only a limited number continue to attempt transit. Now 95 00:05:55,960 --> 00:05:58,719 Speaker 1: here's why this matters enormously. I really want you to 96 00:05:58,720 --> 00:06:01,720 Speaker 1: hear this. The Straight of hor Moves, only twenty one 97 00:06:01,760 --> 00:06:05,200 Speaker 1: miles wide at its narrowest point, carries roughly twenty million 98 00:06:05,240 --> 00:06:08,000 Speaker 1: barrels of crude oil every single day. That's about one 99 00:06:08,000 --> 00:06:11,920 Speaker 1: fifth of old global oil consumption. Saudi Arabia right wait 100 00:06:12,360 --> 00:06:17,120 Speaker 1: UAE all of their oil exports flow through that bottleneck, 101 00:06:17,760 --> 00:06:20,440 Speaker 1: and Iran has repeatedly threatened a blockade to the Straight 102 00:06:20,480 --> 00:06:22,599 Speaker 1: of hor Moves. But this is the first time in 103 00:06:22,839 --> 00:06:25,760 Speaker 1: history that they have actually acted on that threat during 104 00:06:25,760 --> 00:06:30,080 Speaker 1: an active military conflict. So what does that mean for 105 00:06:30,120 --> 00:06:33,640 Speaker 1: your wallet? Like I said, you probably gotta go put 106 00:06:33,680 --> 00:06:36,680 Speaker 1: gas in your car today, might save you a few bucks. 107 00:06:36,920 --> 00:06:39,480 Speaker 1: Not in the long run, but on the long runs. 108 00:06:39,600 --> 00:06:43,560 Speaker 1: Just just get ready. Analysts warned that an expected closure 109 00:06:43,720 --> 00:06:47,359 Speaker 1: escalation could lift crude oil prices by anywhere from fifteen 110 00:06:47,400 --> 00:06:52,480 Speaker 1: to twenty percent, while limited pipeline alternatives offer only a 111 00:06:52,520 --> 00:06:54,680 Speaker 1: partial conclusion. Can I just say thank you to all 112 00:06:54,680 --> 00:06:56,760 Speaker 1: the greeny weenies and to all the members of the 113 00:06:56,760 --> 00:06:59,960 Speaker 1: cult of the Climate activists who just keep stopping pipeline 114 00:07:00,320 --> 00:07:05,240 Speaker 1: you know, expansion in this country. Screw you. This is 115 00:07:05,279 --> 00:07:11,480 Speaker 1: why drill, baby, drill is such an important political point. Now, 116 00:07:11,560 --> 00:07:17,240 Speaker 1: we are energy independent, but what we're not independent from 117 00:07:17,680 --> 00:07:22,120 Speaker 1: are global international oil prices. Oil is sold on a 118 00:07:22,160 --> 00:07:28,160 Speaker 1: global international market, and so whether we just somehow withdraw 119 00:07:28,280 --> 00:07:30,600 Speaker 1: from that global international market, which we're not going to 120 00:07:30,600 --> 00:07:35,200 Speaker 1: do because that's how the oil and gas companies make money. 121 00:07:35,880 --> 00:07:39,920 Speaker 1: So analysts are now warning that a prolonged disruption could 122 00:07:40,200 --> 00:07:44,040 Speaker 1: push Brent crude above one hundred dollars a barrel. Now, obviously, 123 00:07:44,160 --> 00:07:47,320 Speaker 1: oil markets are closed for the weekend, but when they 124 00:07:47,320 --> 00:07:51,680 Speaker 1: open Monday morning. Buckle up. Now, can Iran actually enforce 125 00:07:51,720 --> 00:07:57,840 Speaker 1: a blockade legally? At its narrowest stretch, The designated shipping 126 00:07:57,920 --> 00:08:01,239 Speaker 1: lanes of the Strait of Hormuz fall in higherly within 127 00:08:01,280 --> 00:08:04,720 Speaker 1: the territorial waters of both Iran and Oman, so it 128 00:08:04,760 --> 00:08:09,960 Speaker 1: does give TARN some genuine geographic leverage practically, though, the 129 00:08:10,120 --> 00:08:14,320 Speaker 1: US fifth Fleet currently repositioned in the Arabian Sea was 130 00:08:14,360 --> 00:08:20,080 Speaker 1: specifically designed for exactly this scenario. Now, this will be 131 00:08:20,240 --> 00:08:25,360 Speaker 1: a direct naval confrontation if the Iranians try to enforce it, 132 00:08:26,440 --> 00:08:30,840 Speaker 1: and Trump said he intends to annihilate those that's his word, 133 00:08:31,240 --> 00:08:37,160 Speaker 1: the Iranian navy. That test may come sooner than anybody anticipated. 134 00:08:38,840 --> 00:08:45,640 Speaker 1: So I'm only chuckling because we all panic when there's 135 00:08:45,640 --> 00:08:48,560 Speaker 1: a snowstorm coming or you know we're gonna have a 136 00:08:48,559 --> 00:08:51,120 Speaker 1: blizzard or something. Everybody runs out and buys toilet paper. 137 00:08:51,840 --> 00:08:54,000 Speaker 1: I'm not saying that, but I am just saying. You 138 00:08:54,000 --> 00:08:57,160 Speaker 1: know what, if you're driving today, you know, just with 139 00:08:57,200 --> 00:09:01,400 Speaker 1: the average you know, you do an overall cost averaging 140 00:09:02,080 --> 00:09:04,560 Speaker 1: filling your car up today, even if it's only you know, 141 00:09:05,080 --> 00:09:09,400 Speaker 1: even if it's three quarters full at say two thirty 142 00:09:09,440 --> 00:09:12,360 Speaker 1: eight gallon. UH is going to save you when you 143 00:09:12,360 --> 00:09:15,440 Speaker 1: try to fill it up next week. And it's just 144 00:09:15,480 --> 00:09:20,840 Speaker 1: for argument's sake, it's three thirty eight gallon. So my 145 00:09:21,160 --> 00:09:25,520 Speaker 1: non certified financial advisor advice today is maybe I'll to 146 00:09:25,520 --> 00:09:35,000 Speaker 1: fill your car up. I'll be right back. Welcome back 147 00:09:35,000 --> 00:09:37,079 Speaker 1: to the weekend with Michael Brown. Wow. I gotta say 148 00:09:37,400 --> 00:09:40,480 Speaker 1: guess what, Michael, I may have much more influence than 149 00:09:40,520 --> 00:09:46,199 Speaker 1: I possibly realized. This is a Parker's us as a 150 00:09:46,280 --> 00:09:49,480 Speaker 1: community just south of Denver, Cuba, number seventy one oh 151 00:09:49,559 --> 00:09:52,120 Speaker 1: five seventy one zero five rights. Michael, I just pulled 152 00:09:52,120 --> 00:09:54,840 Speaker 1: into Costco and Parker and it reminds me of pictures 153 00:09:54,880 --> 00:09:57,840 Speaker 1: I grew up seeing regarding the nineteen seventies oil crisis. 154 00:09:58,559 --> 00:10:01,400 Speaker 1: So you're all talking my advice, go put gas in 155 00:10:01,440 --> 00:10:04,400 Speaker 1: your car dollar cost averaging. I'm just trying to save 156 00:10:04,440 --> 00:10:07,080 Speaker 1: you a few pennies over the long run, because this 157 00:10:07,240 --> 00:10:11,439 Speaker 1: is going whether the Iranians are able to blockade the 158 00:10:11,480 --> 00:10:15,720 Speaker 1: straight of Horn moves or not, just the way markets 159 00:10:15,880 --> 00:10:21,359 Speaker 1: naturally react to uncertainty is going to cause oil prices 160 00:10:21,559 --> 00:10:25,280 Speaker 1: to soar. In my opinion, should about you know that 161 00:10:25,400 --> 00:10:29,040 Speaker 1: shit about some futures just on the on the bet 162 00:10:29,160 --> 00:10:33,600 Speaker 1: that at some point Trump was going to you know, boom, 163 00:10:34,000 --> 00:10:36,520 Speaker 1: turn on the light switch and off we go to 164 00:10:36,559 --> 00:10:42,800 Speaker 1: the races. So when we last spoke about Comminae the Ayahtola, 165 00:10:44,080 --> 00:10:47,960 Speaker 1: his status was genuinely a mystery. Well, the pictures kind 166 00:10:47,960 --> 00:10:52,320 Speaker 1: of darkened since for the for the regime since then, 167 00:10:53,640 --> 00:10:59,319 Speaker 1: Israel's Israel's most watched evening news progs Channel twelve open 168 00:10:59,400 --> 00:11:03,360 Speaker 1: with anchor Danny Kishmarro stating that quote, the assessment in 169 00:11:03,640 --> 00:11:07,199 Speaker 1: Israel that Iran Supreme Leader Al Kamane was killed in 170 00:11:07,280 --> 00:11:12,480 Speaker 1: the strikes is strengthening now, citing high ranking Israeli sources. 171 00:11:12,559 --> 00:11:15,640 Speaker 1: Channel twelve reporters added that quote, it is hard to 172 00:11:15,720 --> 00:11:20,000 Speaker 1: imagine that Kammene survived these attacks. Now, the anchor noted, 173 00:11:20,040 --> 00:11:22,920 Speaker 1: it would be the first time Israel had ever killed 174 00:11:22,920 --> 00:11:25,880 Speaker 1: the leader of a foreign country. Now, that said, it's 175 00:11:25,960 --> 00:11:30,120 Speaker 1: still unconfirmed. Now Iran's foreign minister continues to claim that 176 00:11:30,160 --> 00:11:34,640 Speaker 1: he's alive, just not really sure where he is. But 177 00:11:35,800 --> 00:11:40,080 Speaker 1: their live coverage is now reporting that Kamene is reportedly 178 00:11:40,440 --> 00:11:47,360 Speaker 1: cut off from contact, cut off from contact, eighty six 179 00:11:47,480 --> 00:11:55,800 Speaker 1: years old, targeted by two of the most active good 180 00:11:56,120 --> 00:12:03,480 Speaker 1: intelligence services in the world intel community and Masad and 181 00:12:03,520 --> 00:12:08,920 Speaker 1: your compound's been destroyed. You do the math. I don't 182 00:12:08,960 --> 00:12:13,280 Speaker 1: know that we've got we got two segments in a 183 00:12:13,320 --> 00:12:17,280 Speaker 1: few minutes left on this program. Maybe we'll know. We'll 184 00:12:17,280 --> 00:12:20,760 Speaker 1: certainly know within hours. But it may be that the 185 00:12:20,840 --> 00:12:24,640 Speaker 1: Ayatola has been h he's no longer with us, he's 186 00:12:24,679 --> 00:12:28,120 Speaker 1: met his virgins. And there's a new name to add 187 00:12:28,120 --> 00:12:32,920 Speaker 1: to the confirmed dead list. Supreme National Security Council Secretary 188 00:12:32,960 --> 00:12:37,440 Speaker 1: Alshama Kanai was reportedly killed in the strikes. Now add 189 00:12:37,480 --> 00:12:45,800 Speaker 1: that to earlier reports of the Iranian Guard commander Mohammad 190 00:12:45,880 --> 00:12:53,040 Speaker 1: Pakpour and Defense Minister Asi's Nazarazad. They've likely been killed. 191 00:12:53,559 --> 00:12:57,800 Speaker 1: So the Iranian regime's national security apparatus seems to be 192 00:12:57,920 --> 00:13:05,880 Speaker 1: systematically decapitated. And you know, well they're ruthless sugs, though 193 00:13:06,040 --> 00:13:09,640 Speaker 1: we can only hope. So now, SINCOM has released its 194 00:13:09,640 --> 00:13:13,520 Speaker 1: first official statements since the strikes began, and the numbers 195 00:13:13,559 --> 00:13:18,360 Speaker 1: are staggery. The joint US Israeli attack began at one 196 00:13:18,480 --> 00:13:23,959 Speaker 1: fifteen am Eastern time, targeting, in Syncom's own words, quote 197 00:13:24,240 --> 00:13:28,880 Speaker 1: Islamic Revolutionary Guard core command and control facilities, Iranian air 198 00:13:28,920 --> 00:13:33,599 Speaker 1: defense capabilities, missile and drone launch sites and military airfields. 199 00:13:34,160 --> 00:13:37,680 Speaker 1: Now from the Israeli side, the Israeli Air Force struck 200 00:13:37,800 --> 00:13:41,720 Speaker 1: five hundred military targets in western and central Iran using 201 00:13:41,960 --> 00:13:45,640 Speaker 1: approximately two hundred fighter jets in the initial wave alone. Now, remember, 202 00:13:45,840 --> 00:13:48,200 Speaker 1: since this program started, we've had the initial wave and 203 00:13:48,240 --> 00:13:52,640 Speaker 1: now we've had this second wave, five hundred targets, two 204 00:13:52,760 --> 00:13:58,600 Speaker 1: hundred fighter jets in a single way. For context, the 205 00:13:58,800 --> 00:14:03,040 Speaker 1: entire nineteen ninety one Gulf War coalition I think flew 206 00:14:03,320 --> 00:14:08,559 Speaker 1: roughly one thousand total sorties on the first night. Israel 207 00:14:08,760 --> 00:14:13,040 Speaker 1: just flew two hundred jets against a single country in 208 00:14:13,080 --> 00:14:17,200 Speaker 1: a matter of hours. That is not a limited strike. 209 00:14:18,040 --> 00:14:24,120 Speaker 1: That is a campaign of total military destruction. Now, I 210 00:14:24,120 --> 00:14:28,200 Speaker 1: think this one deserves attention because it has implications well 211 00:14:28,240 --> 00:14:33,760 Speaker 1: beyond today. Iran has reportedly deployed the Fetah hypersonic missile 212 00:14:33,800 --> 00:14:37,800 Speaker 1: during its retaliatory strikes. Now, again that comes from prov 213 00:14:37,880 --> 00:14:40,880 Speaker 1: to so take it for what it's worth. The Fatah 214 00:14:41,000 --> 00:14:45,360 Speaker 1: is Iran's most advanced defensive weapon. It's capable of actually 215 00:14:45,400 --> 00:14:49,200 Speaker 1: maneuvering in flight, and it's specifically designed to defeat missile 216 00:14:49,200 --> 00:14:53,120 Speaker 1: defense systems. It can travel, it speeds up to mock 217 00:14:53,600 --> 00:14:56,120 Speaker 1: I think one point five or Mack fifteen. It's it's 218 00:14:56,200 --> 00:15:00,520 Speaker 1: some astronomical number. Now, if confirmed, that is the first 219 00:15:00,640 --> 00:15:04,840 Speaker 1: combat use of an Iranian hypersonic weapon, and it tells 220 00:15:04,880 --> 00:15:08,160 Speaker 1: you that Iran was holding this capability in reserve for 221 00:15:08,520 --> 00:15:16,360 Speaker 1: exactly this moment. Now, for those watching Lebanon and Israel's 222 00:15:16,400 --> 00:15:20,800 Speaker 1: northern border, this is the update that you need. Hesblah 223 00:15:20,840 --> 00:15:24,800 Speaker 1: has voiced so solidarity with the Iranian regime. Of course 224 00:15:25,080 --> 00:15:29,400 Speaker 1: you'd expect that, right, but they stopped short of announcing 225 00:15:29,400 --> 00:15:33,560 Speaker 1: that they would join the retaliation against Israel. Now, Israel's 226 00:15:33,600 --> 00:15:36,240 Speaker 1: not going to wait around to find out. The Israeli 227 00:15:36,280 --> 00:15:39,560 Speaker 1: defense forces have called a mass enlistment of reservists and 228 00:15:39,600 --> 00:15:43,120 Speaker 1: they have deployed significant forces to the northern border, specifically 229 00:15:43,560 --> 00:15:48,080 Speaker 1: to deter Hasbela from entering the conflict. Now, hesblof, you remember, 230 00:15:48,200 --> 00:15:51,040 Speaker 1: was weakened after losing its leadership and almost all of 231 00:15:51,080 --> 00:15:54,840 Speaker 1: its arsenal over the past year. The question is whether 232 00:15:54,920 --> 00:16:01,120 Speaker 1: Iranian pressure forces their hand regardless, I think if Iranian 233 00:16:01,160 --> 00:16:04,760 Speaker 1: pressure forces has the law's hand and they enter into 234 00:16:04,760 --> 00:16:08,960 Speaker 1: the conflict, I think it's a suicide mission because I 235 00:16:09,000 --> 00:16:11,600 Speaker 1: think the Israeli defense forces with all the reservists being 236 00:16:11,600 --> 00:16:15,920 Speaker 1: called up, are ready to annihilate that too. So let's 237 00:16:15,960 --> 00:16:19,440 Speaker 1: step back for just a moment, because I think of 238 00:16:19,520 --> 00:16:22,440 Speaker 1: everything that I in my head as I think about 239 00:16:22,480 --> 00:16:26,720 Speaker 1: everything I've just said, this is a campaign of annihilation, 240 00:16:28,840 --> 00:16:33,600 Speaker 1: This is a do or die situation. And the fact 241 00:16:33,680 --> 00:16:39,160 Speaker 1: that the Arab coalition partners have now sided with US 242 00:16:40,400 --> 00:16:42,200 Speaker 1: have actually said you know, now, I want to be 243 00:16:42,280 --> 00:16:45,080 Speaker 1: specific here because it's interesting because these are the these 244 00:16:45,120 --> 00:16:48,080 Speaker 1: are the Middle Eastern politics that you need to understand. 245 00:16:49,680 --> 00:16:55,680 Speaker 1: The Arab Coalition partners, the Saudis, the Emiradis, the Qataris, 246 00:16:55,800 --> 00:17:00,440 Speaker 1: the Kuwaitis, they've they've all joined with the United States, 247 00:17:01,320 --> 00:17:04,399 Speaker 1: not with Israel. But they know that this is a 248 00:17:04,480 --> 00:17:09,200 Speaker 1: joint Israel US operation. So in essence they have joined. 249 00:17:09,480 --> 00:17:14,200 Speaker 1: They have an effect joined a joint US Israeli operation 250 00:17:15,080 --> 00:17:20,080 Speaker 1: against a common enemy, the Islamic Republic of Iran. And 251 00:17:20,119 --> 00:17:23,439 Speaker 1: I think that is significant. So for all the naysayers 252 00:17:23,440 --> 00:17:25,359 Speaker 1: out there, they kept saying that this was going to 253 00:17:25,400 --> 00:17:28,720 Speaker 1: be an absolute, you know, feace storm, that this was 254 00:17:28,760 --> 00:17:31,480 Speaker 1: going to split, you know, the Abraham Accords, that this 255 00:17:31,600 --> 00:17:33,840 Speaker 1: was going to do all these things. This goes back 256 00:17:33,880 --> 00:17:38,400 Speaker 1: to my hour in which I talked about the global 257 00:17:38,560 --> 00:17:42,679 Speaker 1: strategic chess moves that Trump started making in the first 258 00:17:42,800 --> 00:17:46,199 Speaker 1: term and did in the first year this term to 259 00:17:46,280 --> 00:17:51,600 Speaker 1: put everything in place, and so far it seems to 260 00:17:51,640 --> 00:18:01,920 Speaker 1: be playing out. I'll be right back to night. Michael 261 00:18:01,920 --> 00:18:04,240 Speaker 1: Brown joins me here, the former FEMA director of talk. 262 00:18:04,119 --> 00:18:06,960 Speaker 2: Show host Michael Brown. Brownie, No, Brownie, You're doing a 263 00:18:07,000 --> 00:18:09,560 Speaker 2: heck of a job The Weekend with Michael Brown. 264 00:18:11,400 --> 00:18:14,399 Speaker 1: Welcome back to The Weekend with Michael Brown. I'm just 265 00:18:14,480 --> 00:18:16,840 Speaker 1: laughing because I have nope. I looked at the text 266 00:18:16,880 --> 00:18:21,640 Speaker 1: line just as as Michael said, I'm live Gubert ninety 267 00:18:21,640 --> 00:18:24,480 Speaker 1: eight twenty three, says Mike Insight of Washington. We would 268 00:18:24,480 --> 00:18:26,320 Speaker 1: love to be able to find guests at three thirty 269 00:18:26,320 --> 00:18:31,000 Speaker 1: a gallon. Well go fill up today because tomar is 270 00:18:31,040 --> 00:18:33,280 Speaker 1: going to be four thirty a gallon or five thirty 271 00:18:33,320 --> 00:18:37,640 Speaker 1: a gallon, I don't know. Let's get started. So we're 272 00:18:37,640 --> 00:18:40,199 Speaker 1: in the final half hour of this program, and I 273 00:18:40,200 --> 00:18:43,480 Speaker 1: want to make sure you leave the program with what 274 00:18:43,560 --> 00:18:45,720 Speaker 1: I see as the most current picture of what's happening 275 00:18:45,760 --> 00:18:48,600 Speaker 1: in the world right now, because in the last hour 276 00:18:48,720 --> 00:18:52,840 Speaker 1: long alone, several things have already changed I can't it's 277 00:18:53,359 --> 00:18:57,520 Speaker 1: I can't believe how fast this stuff is changing. Is Raeley, 278 00:18:57,560 --> 00:18:59,600 Speaker 1: Prime Minister Nett and y'all who has now said that 279 00:18:59,640 --> 00:19:03,879 Speaker 1: there are quote many signs that Iran's supreme leader is 280 00:19:05,040 --> 00:19:09,920 Speaker 1: gone gone. That's the word that Nyahu used. He did 281 00:19:09,960 --> 00:19:13,080 Speaker 1: not say dead, he did not say confirmed killed. He 282 00:19:13,200 --> 00:19:19,000 Speaker 1: said the iatola, the supreme leader is gone. And just 283 00:19:19,280 --> 00:19:22,200 Speaker 1: from my experience with the State Department, or for that matter, 284 00:19:22,200 --> 00:19:25,959 Speaker 1: in diplomacy, in diplomatic language, that word is doing a 285 00:19:26,000 --> 00:19:31,000 Speaker 1: lot of work. Because Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman, asked directly 286 00:19:31,720 --> 00:19:35,720 Speaker 1: about Kamone's condition, gave a response that ought to tell 287 00:19:35,800 --> 00:19:41,359 Speaker 1: us everything. Quote, I cannot confirm anything. What is important 288 00:19:41,400 --> 00:19:44,479 Speaker 1: is that our people, the entire nation are focused on 289 00:19:44,560 --> 00:19:48,679 Speaker 1: defending our sovereignty and territorial integrity. Now, let me just 290 00:19:48,760 --> 00:19:53,800 Speaker 1: say that when a government spokesperson won't confirm his own 291 00:19:53,880 --> 00:19:57,520 Speaker 1: supreme leader is alive, I'd say that's not a good 292 00:19:57,560 --> 00:20:01,920 Speaker 1: sign for the regime. Meanwhile, a HESBA law affiliated channel 293 00:20:01,960 --> 00:20:05,399 Speaker 1: claims that kammen A is quote in the operations rooms 294 00:20:05,640 --> 00:20:08,000 Speaker 1: managing the war. Now, I don't know which of those 295 00:20:08,119 --> 00:20:12,280 Speaker 1: is true, but here's what I do know his compound 296 00:20:12,400 --> 00:20:16,119 Speaker 1: is in rubble, several of the top commanders are dead, 297 00:20:16,680 --> 00:20:19,800 Speaker 1: and now the Iranians themselves won't publicly say that he's 298 00:20:19,840 --> 00:20:25,399 Speaker 1: alive and in charge. Wow. Now here's the most important 299 00:20:25,440 --> 00:20:30,200 Speaker 1: American news of the hour. Uscent comm Central Command has 300 00:20:30,200 --> 00:20:33,520 Speaker 1: officially confirmed that the United States has suffered no combat 301 00:20:33,560 --> 00:20:38,359 Speaker 1: related casualties in Operation Epic Fury, and that damage to 302 00:20:38,760 --> 00:20:43,560 Speaker 1: US installations has been minimal and has not affected operations. Now, 303 00:20:43,600 --> 00:20:47,919 Speaker 1: I want you to think about what that means. I 304 00:20:48,040 --> 00:20:52,639 Speaker 1: ran fired hundreds of missiles and drones at military bases 305 00:20:52,680 --> 00:20:58,399 Speaker 1: across six countries, and Scentcom is reporting minimal damage and 306 00:20:58,520 --> 00:21:05,879 Speaker 1: zero American deaths. That's either extraordinary luck, extraordinary preparation, or 307 00:21:06,000 --> 00:21:11,119 Speaker 1: most likely both. Now, military analysts believe the pre empty 308 00:21:11,359 --> 00:21:15,520 Speaker 1: repositioning of our naval assets away from ball Rain before 309 00:21:15,520 --> 00:21:20,439 Speaker 1: the strikes began probably reduced potential damage. Now that's not 310 00:21:20,680 --> 00:21:28,240 Speaker 1: luck again, that's exquisite intelligence and amazing planning. Now here's 311 00:21:28,240 --> 00:21:29,720 Speaker 1: a story that I think is going to get bigger 312 00:21:29,720 --> 00:21:33,000 Speaker 1: as the week goes on. There is satellite imagery from 313 00:21:33,080 --> 00:21:37,040 Speaker 1: Van tor This captured the aftermath at Iran's naval base 314 00:21:37,119 --> 00:21:41,960 Speaker 1: at contor roct vessels burning at the pier, significant damage 315 00:21:41,960 --> 00:21:44,359 Speaker 1: to the airfield. Now, Trump said he was going to 316 00:21:44,440 --> 00:21:48,400 Speaker 1: annihilate the Iranian navy. Right now, I don't think that's 317 00:21:48,480 --> 00:21:53,560 Speaker 1: rhetoric anymore. That's satellite imagery. Now, the contact based sense 318 00:21:53,560 --> 00:21:56,679 Speaker 1: of the Gulf of Oman, that's the southern approach to 319 00:21:56,720 --> 00:22:00,840 Speaker 1: the Strait of Hormons. If you're destroying Aram's naval capability 320 00:22:01,160 --> 00:22:05,240 Speaker 1: at that location, that's directly related to the hormone to 321 00:22:05,359 --> 00:22:08,240 Speaker 1: the straight of horm Moves closure that I just talked 322 00:22:08,240 --> 00:22:13,040 Speaker 1: about last hour. If Iran can't project naval power at 323 00:22:13,040 --> 00:22:16,160 Speaker 1: the mouth of that straight, then their ability to enforce 324 00:22:17,040 --> 00:22:25,199 Speaker 1: a blockade that diminishes dramatically. And this is for this 325 00:22:25,280 --> 00:22:27,920 Speaker 1: is for every American listening right now, for every every 326 00:22:28,040 --> 00:22:37,520 Speaker 1: US's not just people watching the Middle East. The FBI director, yes, 327 00:22:37,720 --> 00:22:42,480 Speaker 1: the FBI Director Cash Betel has directed the FBI's counter 328 00:22:42,600 --> 00:22:47,960 Speaker 1: terrorism and counterintelligence teams to an elevated alert and they're 329 00:22:48,000 --> 00:22:51,879 Speaker 1: going to remain at that level as this situation unfolds. 330 00:22:52,960 --> 00:22:55,360 Speaker 1: So you might ask, well, what would what would the 331 00:22:55,400 --> 00:23:01,159 Speaker 1: FBI's counter terrorism be watching for. Well, from my experience, 332 00:23:01,680 --> 00:23:05,520 Speaker 1: the FBI has to be concerned about Iranian sympathizers and 333 00:23:05,600 --> 00:23:13,000 Speaker 1: supporters who will now act independently or today's action might 334 00:23:13,119 --> 00:23:16,760 Speaker 1: be one of those tipping points, one of those signals 335 00:23:17,280 --> 00:23:20,760 Speaker 1: that at Iran's direction that they now should start committing 336 00:23:20,760 --> 00:23:24,760 Speaker 1: acts of terrorism, either in this country or against American 337 00:23:24,800 --> 00:23:29,960 Speaker 1: targets abroad. So investigators are particularly monitoring individuals that had 338 00:23:30,000 --> 00:23:33,040 Speaker 1: known affiliations to HESBA Law who happen to be living 339 00:23:33,040 --> 00:23:35,920 Speaker 1: in the United States. Now, I don't want to sound 340 00:23:36,000 --> 00:23:39,480 Speaker 1: alarmist here, but when you have four years of an 341 00:23:39,480 --> 00:23:42,480 Speaker 1: open border and I can you know, I'd love to 342 00:23:42,520 --> 00:23:44,080 Speaker 1: go back and be able to do a word search 343 00:23:45,359 --> 00:23:47,560 Speaker 1: of every program that I did over the past year, 344 00:23:48,840 --> 00:23:51,960 Speaker 1: the past four years where I talked about open borders 345 00:23:52,640 --> 00:23:56,359 Speaker 1: and from my experience in homeland security, talking about terrorist 346 00:23:56,440 --> 00:24:01,120 Speaker 1: cells coming across an open borderyfally I would talk about 347 00:24:01,160 --> 00:24:05,040 Speaker 1: Hamas and hesb Law, al Qaeda and others. This could 348 00:24:05,119 --> 00:24:07,520 Speaker 1: be that tipping point for them. I'm not trying to 349 00:24:07,520 --> 00:24:12,400 Speaker 1: sound alarmist. I'm just trying to be your realist here. Now, 350 00:24:12,560 --> 00:24:16,679 Speaker 1: the FBI, they'll use electronic surveillance, undercover operations, in formers, 351 00:24:16,680 --> 00:24:19,560 Speaker 1: they will use every tool of their disposal. And what 352 00:24:19,640 --> 00:24:23,000 Speaker 1: are they watching for the thing that I fear the most, 353 00:24:23,040 --> 00:24:26,800 Speaker 1: and that's a lone wolf, a self radicalized individual who 354 00:24:26,800 --> 00:24:29,840 Speaker 1: decides to act on their own. Now, the State Department 355 00:24:29,840 --> 00:24:34,919 Speaker 1: has separately advised US citizens worldwide to increase to exercise 356 00:24:35,080 --> 00:24:38,080 Speaker 1: increased caution. Now that's a broad global warming. I get 357 00:24:38,080 --> 00:24:42,360 Speaker 1: that it's not limited to the Middle East, but that's 358 00:24:42,400 --> 00:24:47,240 Speaker 1: where we are realistically. And now for the almend this one. 359 00:24:48,960 --> 00:24:52,359 Speaker 1: An Iranian source with knowledge of that country's military strategy 360 00:24:52,400 --> 00:24:57,240 Speaker 1: told CNN that Iran intends to continue its offensive until 361 00:24:57,400 --> 00:25:02,200 Speaker 1: the aggressor is punished, and added that quote, no significant 362 00:25:02,280 --> 00:25:05,600 Speaker 1: damage has been done to Iran's missile and defense capabilities, 363 00:25:06,080 --> 00:25:11,560 Speaker 1: and Iran has prepared itself for a long war. Now 364 00:25:11,880 --> 00:25:16,200 Speaker 1: take that with a grain of salt. That's Iranian propaganda 365 00:25:16,240 --> 00:25:19,320 Speaker 1: and it's almost certainly not true that no significant damage 366 00:25:19,320 --> 00:25:21,760 Speaker 1: has been done, because we've got the satellite imagery of 367 00:25:21,760 --> 00:25:25,520 Speaker 1: a destroyed naval base, for example, we have confirmed dead 368 00:25:25,720 --> 00:25:31,040 Speaker 1: IRGC commanders, we have a decimated leadership compound. But the 369 00:25:31,080 --> 00:25:34,600 Speaker 1: intent behind the statement is real. Iran is not going 370 00:25:34,640 --> 00:25:37,800 Speaker 1: to simply absorb this and then surrender. The question is 371 00:25:37,840 --> 00:25:41,719 Speaker 1: whether they can sustain a prolonged conflict and the honest 372 00:25:41,760 --> 00:25:46,639 Speaker 1: answer is that their ability to do so seems to 373 00:25:46,680 --> 00:25:51,360 Speaker 1: be getting degraded by the hour. Now there's one new 374 00:25:51,359 --> 00:25:58,120 Speaker 1: wrinkle from Iraq. Iraq, a militant pro Iranian group based 375 00:25:58,200 --> 00:26:00,000 Speaker 1: in Iraq has worn this is going to start attacking 376 00:26:00,359 --> 00:26:04,399 Speaker 1: bases in the Middle East. Sighting an airstrike it says 377 00:26:04,520 --> 00:26:07,040 Speaker 1: hit one of its own bases. This is from CBS. 378 00:26:08,400 --> 00:26:12,960 Speaker 1: This is the activation of Iran's proxy network, what Tehran 379 00:26:13,160 --> 00:26:17,840 Speaker 1: calls the Axis of Resistance. The who Thi's already They've 380 00:26:17,880 --> 00:26:20,160 Speaker 1: already said they're going to resume the Red Sea attacks. 381 00:26:21,200 --> 00:26:25,360 Speaker 1: Iraqi based militias. They're now threatening to join has Bel. 382 00:26:25,600 --> 00:26:28,840 Speaker 1: They're still watching from Lebanon. So the proxy war is 383 00:26:28,920 --> 00:26:33,440 Speaker 1: beginning to layer on top of this direct conflict. This 384 00:26:33,720 --> 00:26:38,040 Speaker 1: is the escalation ladder that military analysts have warned about 385 00:26:38,240 --> 00:26:44,000 Speaker 1: all morning long. And then for those of you watching 386 00:26:44,160 --> 00:26:49,879 Speaker 1: the domestic angle, I would guess that the twenty twenty 387 00:26:49,880 --> 00:26:54,199 Speaker 1: eight Democrat presidential primary that may seem like, where are 388 00:26:54,240 --> 00:26:59,040 Speaker 1: you going with that? I think that started today. Yes, 389 00:27:00,160 --> 00:27:06,040 Speaker 1: we may have started our annihilation of the Iranian terrorist regime. 390 00:27:07,200 --> 00:27:10,400 Speaker 1: But California Governor Gavin Newsom said that while he supports 391 00:27:10,400 --> 00:27:13,240 Speaker 1: regime change in Iran and believes that it should not 392 00:27:13,359 --> 00:27:17,679 Speaker 1: have nukes. Quote, it does not justify the President of 393 00:27:17,680 --> 00:27:24,520 Speaker 1: the United States engaging in an illegal, dangerous war. Pete Buddhajig, Yes, 394 00:27:24,640 --> 00:27:27,520 Speaker 1: he's raised his head up out of the sand, said 395 00:27:27,520 --> 00:27:30,960 Speaker 1: the strikes put Americans at risk and do nothing to 396 00:27:31,040 --> 00:27:34,640 Speaker 1: help with the urgent problems here at home. I told 397 00:27:34,680 --> 00:27:40,399 Speaker 1: you today was the day. Now file those away, because 398 00:27:40,520 --> 00:27:45,560 Speaker 1: you'll hear those arguments all week long. The Biden left 399 00:27:45,680 --> 00:27:50,359 Speaker 1: of the Democrat Party has found its first real twenty 400 00:27:50,440 --> 00:27:54,560 Speaker 1: twenty eight contrast with Donald Trump, and they're not going 401 00:27:54,640 --> 00:27:59,040 Speaker 1: to let it go. On the other hand, Tom Cotton 402 00:27:59,160 --> 00:28:03,120 Speaker 1: Chair Senator Tom Cotton, chair of the Senate Intelligence Committee, 403 00:28:03,600 --> 00:28:08,879 Speaker 1: said the administration quote more than fulfilled its responsibilities to 404 00:28:09,040 --> 00:28:13,640 Speaker 1: Congress and that the objective is clear put an end 405 00:28:13,720 --> 00:28:21,760 Speaker 1: to Iran's nuclear ambitions. So there you have it. There's 406 00:28:21,800 --> 00:28:25,480 Speaker 1: where we are. Now hang tight. When we get back, 407 00:28:26,560 --> 00:28:31,080 Speaker 1: I'll just try in plain old English to sum up 408 00:28:31,080 --> 00:28:40,000 Speaker 1: where I think we are. I'll be right back. Welcome 409 00:28:40,000 --> 00:28:43,000 Speaker 1: back the weekend with Michael Brown. Now, before I kind 410 00:28:43,000 --> 00:28:45,720 Speaker 1: of hand you off to the afternoon to go do 411 00:28:45,800 --> 00:28:48,800 Speaker 1: what you whatever, whatever, you're going to do for the weekend. 412 00:28:50,240 --> 00:28:52,520 Speaker 1: This has kind of been an interesting day for me. 413 00:28:53,800 --> 00:28:56,640 Speaker 1: So let me just give you the bottom line and 414 00:28:57,400 --> 00:29:00,320 Speaker 1: suggest this is what you ought to watch for over 415 00:29:00,360 --> 00:29:03,520 Speaker 1: the next say, forty eight to seventy two hours, because 416 00:29:03,560 --> 00:29:05,840 Speaker 1: this story's not going to be quiet, will you go 417 00:29:05,880 --> 00:29:09,360 Speaker 1: about your weekend. So here's where we are right now. 418 00:29:09,560 --> 00:29:13,840 Speaker 1: Just old country English, cowboy English. Is one of my 419 00:29:13,920 --> 00:29:16,520 Speaker 1: clients housed to had a client one time that said, 420 00:29:16,560 --> 00:29:21,600 Speaker 1: I just speak cowboy English. American. Israel went to war 421 00:29:22,360 --> 00:29:26,720 Speaker 1: with Islamic Republic of Iran this morning, and it wasn't 422 00:29:26,760 --> 00:29:30,960 Speaker 1: a limited strike, it wasn't a warning shot. It was 423 00:29:31,000 --> 00:29:34,600 Speaker 1: a sustained, multi wave campaign that's been going for approximately 424 00:29:34,920 --> 00:29:41,160 Speaker 1: ten hours or so, no end publicly declared by either side. 425 00:29:41,320 --> 00:29:45,360 Speaker 1: We have destroyed much of Iran's missile infrastructure. We've hit 426 00:29:45,400 --> 00:29:50,120 Speaker 1: their naval bases, targeted the leadership, killed multiple senior IRGC commanders. 427 00:29:50,880 --> 00:29:54,920 Speaker 1: The Ranians have retaliated across the entire Middle East, hitting 428 00:29:55,080 --> 00:29:59,959 Speaker 1: US bases, Civilian airports, Gulf cities, but has so far 429 00:30:00,280 --> 00:30:04,880 Speaker 1: caused minimal American casualties thanks to preparation and of course, 430 00:30:04,920 --> 00:30:08,520 Speaker 1: our superior missile defenses. The straight of hor moves has 431 00:30:08,560 --> 00:30:11,959 Speaker 1: been declared closed by by the Iranians, though tankers are 432 00:30:11,960 --> 00:30:16,800 Speaker 1: still attempting to transit oil. Markets will open Monday. Common 433 00:30:16,800 --> 00:30:20,760 Speaker 1: Ay is missing, possibly dead or as Netanya who says gone, 434 00:30:21,480 --> 00:30:25,200 Speaker 1: and the resumed senior security leadership, they've been gutted. I 435 00:30:25,240 --> 00:30:30,600 Speaker 1: think this is probably the most consequential single day in 436 00:30:30,720 --> 00:30:36,920 Speaker 1: American foreign policy since the attacks of September eleventh. And 437 00:30:37,040 --> 00:30:41,520 Speaker 1: I don't say that lightly because, as someone who was 438 00:30:42,560 --> 00:30:49,200 Speaker 1: on a tanker plane headed back escorted by two F 439 00:30:49,280 --> 00:30:53,280 Speaker 1: sixteen's that day back to Androws Air Force Base, that 440 00:30:53,400 --> 00:30:57,920 Speaker 1: day will always be for most in my mind. But 441 00:30:58,000 --> 00:31:01,920 Speaker 1: in terms of our foreign policy, this is and could 442 00:31:01,960 --> 00:31:05,240 Speaker 1: be the most consequential single day in our foreign policy 443 00:31:05,400 --> 00:31:08,440 Speaker 1: since that day. So here's what I would watch this 444 00:31:08,480 --> 00:31:12,480 Speaker 1: weekend and into next week. Number one comment A. His 445 00:31:12,640 --> 00:31:17,560 Speaker 1: confirmed fate would change everything, because if he's dead, the 446 00:31:17,600 --> 00:31:23,000 Speaker 1: regime faces an immediate succession crisis, and that could accelerate 447 00:31:23,040 --> 00:31:26,360 Speaker 1: the internal collapse of the regime. Now, if he emerges 448 00:31:26,400 --> 00:31:29,720 Speaker 1: alive and visibly in command, that means they survive to 449 00:31:29,720 --> 00:31:33,360 Speaker 1: fight another day, and they could actually rally nationalist sentiment 450 00:31:33,360 --> 00:31:37,040 Speaker 1: against the strikes. So watch for commin A to either 451 00:31:37,160 --> 00:31:43,240 Speaker 1: appear on Iranian state television or not. Now, every hour 452 00:31:43,360 --> 00:31:47,040 Speaker 1: that he does not appear publicly, I would say is 453 00:31:47,080 --> 00:31:50,320 Speaker 1: a data point in our calculations. That would be number one. 454 00:31:51,440 --> 00:31:55,520 Speaker 1: Number two a straight to her moves. As I said, obviously, 455 00:31:55,560 --> 00:31:59,120 Speaker 1: the oil markets are closed today, they'll open Monday morning. 456 00:32:00,040 --> 00:32:03,480 Speaker 1: If the strait remains effectively blocked, you will see an 457 00:32:03,520 --> 00:32:07,280 Speaker 1: oil price shock unlike anything since probably nineteen seventy three. 458 00:32:08,160 --> 00:32:11,320 Speaker 1: But if the American Navy clears it, and clearly they've 459 00:32:11,360 --> 00:32:14,840 Speaker 1: got the assets positioned to do exactly that, then the 460 00:32:14,880 --> 00:32:18,120 Speaker 1: economic impact will be contained. Oh I think I'll still spike, 461 00:32:18,280 --> 00:32:20,320 Speaker 1: because that's just the way the markets are, because there'll 462 00:32:20,360 --> 00:32:24,040 Speaker 1: be some profit taking. But the next forty eight hours 463 00:32:24,400 --> 00:32:28,920 Speaker 1: in that waterway will determine whether your gas prices spiked 464 00:32:28,960 --> 00:32:34,080 Speaker 1: dramatically or a little bit. Watch Monday morning's oil futures 465 00:32:34,640 --> 00:32:38,440 Speaker 1: like a hawk. That'll tell you what to expect. That's 466 00:32:38,520 --> 00:32:43,160 Speaker 1: number two. Number three, the uranium proxies. And this one 467 00:32:43,200 --> 00:32:45,640 Speaker 1: does bug me. This one bug me probably the most. 468 00:32:46,680 --> 00:32:51,480 Speaker 1: Hezballah is quiet, but they're watching from Lebanon. The Iraqi 469 00:32:51,560 --> 00:32:55,640 Speaker 1: she and malicious. They've just threatened to join the houthis 470 00:32:55,800 --> 00:32:59,400 Speaker 1: they're already back in the Red Sea. Now. If Hesba enters, 471 00:33:00,240 --> 00:33:03,680 Speaker 1: that means Israel's northern border erupts, and this becomes a 472 00:33:03,760 --> 00:33:07,840 Speaker 1: true multi front regional war. That is the scenario that 473 00:33:07,880 --> 00:33:11,680 Speaker 1: military planners probably fear the most, and it is the 474 00:33:11,720 --> 00:33:14,760 Speaker 1: one thing that the Israeli defense forces are currently preparing 475 00:33:14,880 --> 00:33:20,240 Speaker 1: for by massing reservists on the Lebanese border. But that 476 00:33:20,400 --> 00:33:26,000 Speaker 1: also leads me to something that's hmmm, disconcerting to me, 477 00:33:27,200 --> 00:33:30,920 Speaker 1: and that is any terrat cells not just in the 478 00:33:31,000 --> 00:33:34,280 Speaker 1: United States. Yes, I worry about obviously, you know the 479 00:33:34,320 --> 00:33:37,400 Speaker 1: obvious New York, Los Angeles, Houston, all the major cities. 480 00:33:38,120 --> 00:33:40,840 Speaker 1: But I worry about London and Paris, Tokyo. I wonder 481 00:33:40,880 --> 00:33:44,240 Speaker 1: about all over the world because any country this had 482 00:33:44,240 --> 00:33:49,880 Speaker 1: an open border. You know, these lone wolves or these 483 00:33:50,000 --> 00:33:54,680 Speaker 1: terraft cells have taken advantage of open borders. Maybe one 484 00:33:54,680 --> 00:33:56,280 Speaker 1: thing good to come out of all of this if 485 00:33:56,280 --> 00:33:58,720 Speaker 1: they do strike somewhere, is that we will learn that 486 00:33:58,840 --> 00:34:03,240 Speaker 1: a sovereign nation must have secure borders. I'd put all 487 00:34:03,240 --> 00:34:08,360 Speaker 1: that in number three about the proxies. Number four, the 488 00:34:08,440 --> 00:34:13,120 Speaker 1: uranium people. You gotta watch the uranium people. Trump's entire 489 00:34:13,200 --> 00:34:16,600 Speaker 1: strategic bet. What I would call the hinge pin of 490 00:34:16,640 --> 00:34:20,520 Speaker 1: this whole operation is that the Uranium people will rise 491 00:34:20,600 --> 00:34:26,840 Speaker 1: up when the regime's coercive apparatus is sufficiently weakened. The 492 00:34:26,880 --> 00:34:31,520 Speaker 1: Crown prints he's already telling people to be ready. The daspora, 493 00:34:31,880 --> 00:34:35,960 Speaker 1: they're jubulant, but the Internet inside Iran is cut off. 494 00:34:36,719 --> 00:34:42,239 Speaker 1: The IRGC still has guns, and popular uprisings require coordination, 495 00:34:42,640 --> 00:34:46,279 Speaker 1: They require courage under fire. So watch for signs of 496 00:34:46,320 --> 00:34:51,280 Speaker 1: internal defections, particularly from the military and the security apparatus, 497 00:34:51,880 --> 00:34:56,400 Speaker 1: as the single biggest indicator of whether this operation succeeds 498 00:34:56,400 --> 00:35:01,840 Speaker 1: on its own terms. Number five Congress, the White House, 499 00:35:02,400 --> 00:35:06,319 Speaker 1: they're going to brief lawmakers tomorrow. The War Powers resolution vote. 500 00:35:06,360 --> 00:35:09,160 Speaker 1: You know that's going to come. It'll almost certainly fail 501 00:35:09,440 --> 00:35:12,200 Speaker 1: in the Republican controlled Senate, but it will be loud. 502 00:35:12,480 --> 00:35:15,000 Speaker 1: It'll be covered wall to wall. It'll become like the 503 00:35:15,120 --> 00:35:17,760 Speaker 1: Nancy Guthrie story. It will be wall to wall coverage. 504 00:35:17,800 --> 00:35:20,920 Speaker 1: Every little senator will have something to say, every Congressman's 505 00:35:20,960 --> 00:35:24,080 Speaker 1: going to have something. Saint's going to be loud, and 506 00:35:24,120 --> 00:35:28,680 Speaker 1: it will define the partisan battle lines for everything that follows. 507 00:35:29,880 --> 00:35:32,960 Speaker 1: Watch the Sunday briefings for whether any Republicans break with 508 00:35:33,000 --> 00:35:36,800 Speaker 1: the president. Even one or two defections could change the 509 00:35:36,840 --> 00:35:42,560 Speaker 1: political calculus significantly in time of war. They should shut up, 510 00:35:43,080 --> 00:35:47,400 Speaker 1: sit down, and stick together. And lastly, watch your wallet. 511 00:35:48,880 --> 00:35:51,359 Speaker 1: I'm not trying to be an alarmist. I'd be doing 512 00:35:51,360 --> 00:35:53,880 Speaker 1: a disservice if I didn't say this plainly. If the 513 00:35:53,880 --> 00:35:55,800 Speaker 1: straight off where Moose stays closed for more than a 514 00:35:55,840 --> 00:35:58,799 Speaker 1: few days, you'll feel at the gas pump, You'll feel 515 00:35:58,800 --> 00:36:01,719 Speaker 1: it at the grocery store, potentially in your investment accounts. 516 00:36:02,360 --> 00:36:05,719 Speaker 1: Nearly a fifth of the world's oil flows through that passage. Now, 517 00:36:05,760 --> 00:36:10,080 Speaker 1: Saudi Arabia and the UAE have some pipeline alternatives, but 518 00:36:10,120 --> 00:36:13,160 Speaker 1: they only that covers only a fraction of the daily flows. 519 00:36:13,719 --> 00:36:16,480 Speaker 1: Have a conversation with your financial advisor on Monday morning 520 00:36:16,800 --> 00:36:19,840 Speaker 1: if you have investments that are sensitive to energy prices 521 00:36:20,080 --> 00:36:23,640 Speaker 1: or to broader market volatility. Here's what I believe is 522 00:36:23,680 --> 00:36:26,239 Speaker 1: somebody who has served in the government studying national security, 523 00:36:26,440 --> 00:36:30,040 Speaker 1: spent years Washington making decisions in crisis moment. What happened 524 00:36:30,080 --> 00:36:34,400 Speaker 1: today was not reckless. It was calculated, prepared, strategically sequenced. 525 00:36:34,760 --> 00:36:41,120 Speaker 1: Venezuela first diplomatic pressure applied, negotiations exhausted, mili A, military assets, prepositions, 526 00:36:41,200 --> 00:36:45,680 Speaker 1: proxy of adversaries degraded. Whether it works, I don't know. 527 00:36:46,440 --> 00:36:49,680 Speaker 1: That's the question history will answer, and we'll watch it together. 528 00:36:50,120 --> 00:36:51,040 Speaker 1: Have a great weekend.