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Speaker 1: It's that time. Always look forward to the Insight, or

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Speaker 1: rather the Daniel Davis Deep Dive. You can find his

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Speaker 1: podcast wherever you get your podcast. Retired Lieutenant Colonel Daniel Davis,

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Speaker 1: Welcome back to the fifty five Caressey Morning Show. Sir.

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Speaker 1: I'm not anticipating good news, but we'll hit the ground

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Speaker 1: running as we always do. We got wars to talk about.

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Speaker 1: Welcome back, my friends. Great see in your face and

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Speaker 1: having you on the show. Always a pleasure to be here, Brian,

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Speaker 1: thanks for having me. All right. Dealer's choice? Where does

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Speaker 1: the guests want to begin? You want to start with

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Speaker 1: Israel and Hamas. You want to look at Ukraine and Russia.

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Speaker 1: Where should we start?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, let's just start in the middle eight's we use.

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Speaker 2: We usually hit that one second, let's go there first.

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Speaker 1: Fair enough. On that one, I noted that the Hamas

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Speaker 1: has returned three more deceased IDF soldiers. That just happened,

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Speaker 1: and according to the reporting I've read on this, they

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Speaker 1: have eight deceased hostages still believed to be inside Gaza.

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Speaker 1: The ceasefire that was in place temporarily interrupted the other day,

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Speaker 1: but apparently back in place. Is this progress? We can

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Speaker 1: hang our hat on, Daniel Davis, should we be optimistic

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Speaker 1: about this? Or where where are things? That's what we

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Speaker 1: have you for.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it's very tenuous at best, and it's tenuous on

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Speaker 2: both sides of the line. It's tenuous because of the

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Speaker 2: Hamas side. It's tenuous because of the Israeli side. I

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Speaker 2: don't think either one of them really wanted. I think

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Speaker 2: that's the only reason we have even a tenuous piece

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Speaker 2: is because President Trump demands it and there's willing to

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Speaker 2: put pressure on both sides to get it done. How

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Speaker 2: long that stays and how far that can go because

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Speaker 2: it is with it's not without limit because obviously both

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Speaker 2: of them have agency as well. There's many in Israel

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Speaker 2: that the last thing that they want is any kind

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Speaker 2: of a ceasefire. They want a military victory, and they

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Speaker 2: are unhappy that they had to go down this route.

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Speaker 2: And meanwhile, you would think that the Hamas side would

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Speaker 2: be breathing a sigh of relief and would be thinking

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Speaker 2: they're lucky stars that they got one, because otherwise they're

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Speaker 2: really the only other alternative is complete and utter destruction

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Speaker 2: for them and thousands more of their innocent people. But

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Speaker 2: they still seem to be pretty pretty boisterous and not

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Speaker 2: wanting to accommodate, not wanting to disarm, and just resisting

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Speaker 2: really across the board. And I think that's part of

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Speaker 2: the really the the I guess the depravity of the

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Speaker 2: Hamas side that no matter what their actions are doing

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Speaker 2: to their people, even given this opportunity to finally end

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Speaker 2: the suffering, they still keep dragging their feet.

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Speaker 1: This screams parallels to be drawn with Ukraine and Russia,

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Speaker 1: doesn't it. I mean, Zelunsky doesn't want to give up

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Speaker 1: any land. He's refused to capitulate. He refuses to give up.

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Speaker 1: Is that a parallel? I mean, is Samas the one

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Speaker 1: that's being completely unrealistic here? I know the balance of

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Speaker 1: power militarily speaking, is with Israel, But as you always

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Speaker 1: and regularly have pointed out, and I'll con side the point,

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Speaker 1: it's a valid one. It's going to require the slaughter

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Speaker 1: of a whole lot more people for Israel to roll

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Speaker 1: over and complete what it proceeds to be its military objective.

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Speaker 1: But I get the sense that they could do it

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Speaker 1: if they're willing to go down that road. So is

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Speaker 1: it Hamas that's the unrealistic party here?

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Speaker 2: Where are we Well, there are some similarities and there's

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Speaker 2: some differences between the two. In the Russia Ukraine war

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Speaker 2: is it is just black and white. There's one side

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Speaker 2: that can win, one side that can't, and the side

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Speaker 2: that can. On the Zelynski side still keeps acting like

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Speaker 2: he can. That's the distinction between the Hamas side. Because

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Speaker 2: they don't believe they can win. They just don't want

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Speaker 2: to give in. Zelensky is still as of today, still

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Speaker 2: thinks that he can succeed and just is pretending like

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Speaker 2: the things are not going bad on the battlefield. Maybe

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Speaker 2: more on that in a second, But the issue for

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Speaker 2: Hamas is they're simply unwilling to acknowledge reality. Yes, the

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Speaker 2: Israeli side has the unequivocal and non negotiable advance in

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Speaker 2: capabilities militarily and they can impose their will at a

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Speaker 2: horrific cost that God help us if that actually gets imposed.

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Speaker 2: But somehow, whether it's the air regime whereas the Trump administration,

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Speaker 2: they're going to have to put some pressure on the

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Speaker 2: Hamas side to finally just do the The only thing they have,

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Speaker 2: the only agency they have, is to stop the killing

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Speaker 2: of their people by laying down their arms and leaving.

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Speaker 2: And I think it's going to take more internal pressure

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Speaker 2: on either the Palestinian side or the Arab regimes that

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Speaker 2: are in the area.

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Speaker 1: I think it's going to take those to get it done. Okay,

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Speaker 1: And that was the next question, was going to ask

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Speaker 1: you further or greater involvement by the surrounding countries, the

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Speaker 1: Arab nations that are surrounded that would benefit tremendously by

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Speaker 1: peace in the region. I mean, that's kind of what

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Speaker 1: the abraham Acords were directed towards. Listen, Yeah, you're different countries,

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Speaker 1: you've got different ideologies, you're different wings of a religious faction.

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Speaker 1: But let's all play well together. It'll inure to all

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Speaker 1: of our benefits economically, so that that makes sense for everybody.

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Speaker 1: I mean, can't we just all get along? But then

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Speaker 1: you have very very ideologically wed folks or like, No,

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Speaker 1: I can't capitulate. I've been a war with these people,

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Speaker 1: and my father and my grandfather, my father's father file

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Speaker 1: of law. I'm not going to give in no musk.

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Speaker 2: And there's plenty of grievances that are genuine and valid

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Speaker 2: on the on the any inside that need to be addressed,

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Speaker 2: But you can't even start to address those until you

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Speaker 2: get the killing stopped, until you get the war over with.

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Speaker 2: And I think the Arab regimes are very focused on this,

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Speaker 2: and I don't think that they have any confusion on

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Speaker 2: this point at all, and they, I think have been

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Speaker 2: putting a lot of pressure, at least a fair amount.

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Speaker 2: I don't know that they've gone all the way yet,

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Speaker 2: but I think that they really need to because they

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Speaker 2: can't get to their objectives. They can't get to peace

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Speaker 2: in the region, they can't get to the issues to

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Speaker 2: take care of the Palestinian people and address their grievances

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Speaker 2: until Hamas lays down their weapons. So I've got plenty

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Speaker 2: of things to say about the IDF and things that

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Speaker 2: they shouldn't have done, But right now, the long pole

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Speaker 2: in the tent right now is the Hama.

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Speaker 1: Side, Okay. And to that end, this exchange of the

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Speaker 1: deceased and bringing back the remaining deceased Israeli folks, that's

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Speaker 1: just phase one. I mean that this period of time

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Speaker 1: with the ceasefire was designed to bring about that reality.

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Speaker 1: We've seem to be very close to there being no

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Speaker 1: more Israeli deceased held by Hamas. So once we get

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Speaker 1: over that milestone. What's the next phase Daniel Davis.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, the Phase two is being negotiated. And that's always

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Speaker 2: been my I keep bringing that up every time President

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Speaker 2: Trump talks about how he brought peace to the Middle East,

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Speaker 2: because there hadn't been any peace brought to the Middle

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Speaker 2: East so far. It's only been Phase one, which is

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Speaker 2: a ceasefire and a hostage exchange and now you know,

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Speaker 2: deceased remains exchange, et cetera. All of the hard stuff

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Speaker 2: has yet to be decided and even negotiated. So there

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Speaker 2: is you know, I'm not to the point yet where

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Speaker 2: I'm willing to say, yeah, we're over the hump here.

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Speaker 2: I mean we're We're still way on the up down

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Speaker 2: side of the home Yep. Phase three is profit though,

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Speaker 2: Daniel Davis. Never forget that.

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Speaker 1: Now moving over to I hope you get that the

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Speaker 1: Ukraine Russia situation. Thank you appreciate it. No, Tomahawk missiles

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Speaker 1: were still there, But I just read the other day

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Speaker 1: that we were going to be sending some patriot missiles.

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Speaker 1: That to me, that doesn't make it any sense. For

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Speaker 1: all the millions of reasons we talked about this before.

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Speaker 1: Patriots aren't effective against drone swarms. They're really, really, really

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Speaker 1: really expensive, and there's only a finite number of them.

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Speaker 1: Does that make any sense whatsoever considering where we are

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Speaker 1: in this conflict? Well, back to your comment a second

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Speaker 1: ago about phase three, that also applies over here with

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Speaker 1: the profits, and certainly it's going to make some profits

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Speaker 1: for some people over here. Now, my understanding is that

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Speaker 1: those patriots didn't come from the United States. That came

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Speaker 1: from Germany and from some other countries here with apparently

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Speaker 1: some future promise that will backfill them at a much

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Speaker 1: later date when they can actually be produced, which of

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Speaker 1: course you know.

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Speaker 2: Is a very slow process. And listen, none of it

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Speaker 2: makes any sense militarily or politically or diplomatically. It only

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Speaker 2: makes sense profit wise. That the war cannot be won

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Speaker 2: by Ukraine. They can't even avoid losing. And it's playing

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Speaker 2: out that way every day, especially in Pokrowsk, and you

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Speaker 2: have Zelensky this morning still talking about how no, everything's fine,

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Speaker 2: and Koupionsk and Pokrovsk there's not that many Russians left

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Speaker 2: and we're just strowing them every day. And yet you

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Speaker 2: can just look at the map that just the red

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Speaker 2: grows by the day and as of this morning, just

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Speaker 2: before we came on air, there are reports now that

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Speaker 2: the final cauldron has been closed in Pokrosk, and the

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Speaker 2: Russians in the north and in the south have linked up.

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Speaker 2: And now then you've got somewhere between who knows five

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Speaker 2: to ten thousand Ukraine soldiers now physically circled inside that

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Speaker 2: in the Mirinograd area, because Pokrowsk has been about ninety

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Speaker 2: percent taken already, only the Outskirts are out by all.

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Speaker 2: In practical points, Pokrowsk has fallen today, and Zelensky is

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Speaker 2: kind of like Hitler in the bunker, just pretending like

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Speaker 2: everything's good.

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Speaker 1: It's that bad well, and piling on. Yeah, we're already

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Speaker 1: piling a lot. Telegraph reported that nearly one hundred thousand

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Speaker 1: Ukrainian men between the age of eighteen and twenty two

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Speaker 1: have left Ukraine in the past two months alone. I think,

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Speaker 1: first off, Daniel Davis, I didn't even realize there were

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Speaker 1: that many of that age left in the country, given

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Speaker 1: how many of e in the conflict, But that they

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Speaker 1: are still fleeing the country is at that rate is amazing.

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Speaker 1: I mean, Ukraine can't keep up militarily in terms of

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Speaker 1: boots on the ground, regardless how much hardware might be

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Speaker 1: laying around.

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Speaker 2: No, there are three issues at stake here. Number one,

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Speaker 2: that age group eighteen to twenty two had not been mobilized.

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Speaker 2: They had been left untouched, so that's why. But then

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Speaker 2: they were prevented from leaving, and that turned out to

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Speaker 2: be a big problem with a lot of the European regimes,

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Speaker 2: and they put pressure on Selenski to open the borders

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Speaker 2: and let them go, and then there was a flood

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Speaker 2: and that they went out because they don't want to

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Speaker 2: be the next ones to pointlessly die in a war.

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Speaker 1: Okay, so you have this big loss.

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Speaker 2: You also have up to by some reports, half a

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Speaker 2: million deserters so far in this calendar year, half a

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Speaker 2: million that have left the battlefield, on top of all

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Speaker 2: of the casualties which continue to pile up every day.

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Speaker 2: And then the last point is that they're now is

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Speaker 2: just is not enough to even force mobilized to come

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Speaker 2: close to matching all of those losses.

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Speaker 1: Every day the man.

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Speaker 2: Powerpool shrinks even further while the Russian side grows.

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Speaker 1: I appreciate you correcting the record here. I was imposing

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Speaker 1: US draft eligibility age on Ukraine, when in fact they

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Speaker 1: didn't require eighteen year olds to sign up. I mean

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Speaker 1: it's a it's a later later eligibility age there, correct.

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Speaker 2: It is. Yeah, that's that's a choice that they made,

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Speaker 2: probably not unwise. But now then they're trying to go

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Speaker 2: into that. There was a lot of pressure inside Ukraine

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Speaker 2: legislatively to open that up and to sacrifice yet another

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Speaker 2: generation of men that they are desperately going to need

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Speaker 2: if they want to have a chance to have a future.

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Speaker 1: Wow, we retire Lieutenant Colonel Daniel Davis. Always fascinating, if

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Speaker 1: not disturbing, conversation we have every week. Someday, someday you

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Speaker 1: are going to be talking about a peace agreement somewhere

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Speaker 1: in the world. I long for that day. You and

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Speaker 1: me brother, forward to it. You and me brother, the

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Speaker 1: and the loss of life senseless. May I underscore loss

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Speaker 1: of life must come to an end. We will be

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Speaker 1: looking for you next Tuesday, sir, God bless you for

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Speaker 1: coming out the program. Keep up the great work, Daniel

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Speaker 1: Davis Deep Dive check it out on your podcast pages.

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Speaker 1: Stick around, folks, got more to come, OAC You'll be

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Speaker 1: in studio. My favorite cancer folks, My cancer doctor's got

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Speaker 1: some