1 00:00:00,720 --> 00:00:02,920 Speaker 1: Goo night. Michael Brown joins me here, the former FEMA 2 00:00:02,920 --> 00:00:06,000 Speaker 1: director of talk show host Michael Brown. Brownie, no, Brownie, 3 00:00:06,000 --> 00:00:08,039 Speaker 1: You're doing a heck of a job. The Weekend with 4 00:00:08,200 --> 00:00:11,879 Speaker 1: Michael Brown broadcasting Life from Denver, Colorado. It's the Weekend 5 00:00:11,920 --> 00:00:14,240 Speaker 1: of Michael Brown. Glad to have you joined the program today. 6 00:00:15,240 --> 00:00:18,120 Speaker 1: Text line, of course, is always open, as it always is. 7 00:00:18,160 --> 00:00:20,320 Speaker 1: Twenty four to seven. The numbers three three one zero 8 00:00:20,440 --> 00:00:23,760 Speaker 1: three three three one zero three. Keyword Mike or Michael. 9 00:00:24,239 --> 00:00:28,160 Speaker 1: Go follow me on all the social media platforms x, Instagram, Facebook, 10 00:00:28,480 --> 00:00:32,199 Speaker 1: and they're all at Michael D. Brown, Michael E. Brown. Now, 11 00:00:32,200 --> 00:00:34,000 Speaker 1: if you're on the bad side of Donald Trump, the 12 00:00:34,040 --> 00:00:37,720 Speaker 1: President of the United States, don't rest easy on a 13 00:00:37,760 --> 00:00:42,839 Speaker 1: Saturday morning, don't sleep in. Eight weeks ago, this morning, 14 00:00:44,360 --> 00:00:47,519 Speaker 1: I woke up expecting to talk about something going on 15 00:00:47,600 --> 00:00:51,720 Speaker 1: inside the United States Congress. I ended up spending most 16 00:00:51,720 --> 00:00:56,120 Speaker 1: of the day talking about Venezuela and the capture of 17 00:00:56,480 --> 00:01:01,760 Speaker 1: Nicholas Maduro, which was executed with stunning milllitary precision. Now, 18 00:01:01,760 --> 00:01:04,959 Speaker 1: this morning I had planned to and probably still will 19 00:01:05,000 --> 00:01:08,240 Speaker 1: at some point, talk about what's going on in the 20 00:01:08,319 --> 00:01:11,840 Speaker 1: United States Congress with regard to the save Act talk 21 00:01:11,880 --> 00:01:14,240 Speaker 1: a little bit about immigration some other things going on, 22 00:01:15,480 --> 00:01:18,200 Speaker 1: but here I am. Instead we're going to talk about 23 00:01:18,440 --> 00:01:23,400 Speaker 1: Operation Epic Fury, which kicked off in the wee hours 24 00:01:23,440 --> 00:01:28,160 Speaker 1: this morning. It's a joint, a joint US Israeli attack 25 00:01:28,480 --> 00:01:32,679 Speaker 1: on Iran designed to decapitate the regime. Now, I have 26 00:01:32,720 --> 00:01:38,560 Speaker 1: to admit I'm feeling a little ambivalent about the strikes. Reception, 27 00:01:38,680 --> 00:01:42,320 Speaker 1: as you may expect, is mixed, ranging from people celebrating 28 00:01:42,319 --> 00:01:45,480 Speaker 1: in the streets of Tehran and others online saying that 29 00:01:45,560 --> 00:01:48,840 Speaker 1: this attack must be a sign that old United States 30 00:01:48,920 --> 00:01:51,280 Speaker 1: will do anything that the Israeli tells tells him to do. 31 00:01:52,120 --> 00:01:56,919 Speaker 1: Those Jews control everything, you know. My stance is probably 32 00:01:56,960 --> 00:02:01,200 Speaker 1: more along the lines of Charlie Kirkson that my primary concerns, 33 00:02:01,240 --> 00:02:04,720 Speaker 1: beyond the military success of any such operation, is that 34 00:02:04,760 --> 00:02:08,000 Speaker 1: we don't get stuck into a counterinsurgency operation resembling the 35 00:02:08,000 --> 00:02:10,520 Speaker 1: one fought in Iraq for the better part of a decade. 36 00:02:11,919 --> 00:02:15,800 Speaker 1: Now that was mandatory after the fallout of military forces 37 00:02:15,880 --> 00:02:21,440 Speaker 1: loyal to Saddam Hussein and the debathification, if you will, 38 00:02:21,480 --> 00:02:25,120 Speaker 1: of Iraq, not leading even any bureaucrats in place to 39 00:02:25,200 --> 00:02:30,680 Speaker 1: run that government. I hope we've learned those lessons. Whether 40 00:02:30,720 --> 00:02:35,639 Speaker 1: we have or not remains to be seen. So while 41 00:02:35,680 --> 00:02:39,519 Speaker 1: most of us slept, the United States and Israel launched 42 00:02:39,560 --> 00:02:44,160 Speaker 1: what President Trump calls major combat operations against the Islamic 43 00:02:44,200 --> 00:02:51,119 Speaker 1: Republic of Iran, Operation Epic Fury, and at this hour 44 00:02:51,160 --> 00:02:54,160 Speaker 1: it is, in the President's own words, as of about 45 00:02:54,200 --> 00:02:57,120 Speaker 1: two o'clock Eastern time this morning in a pre recorded message, 46 00:02:57,840 --> 00:03:01,359 Speaker 1: massive and ongoing. So I'm going to break it down 47 00:03:01,400 --> 00:03:04,760 Speaker 1: because you deserve the full picture. So let's start with 48 00:03:05,000 --> 00:03:07,960 Speaker 1: what's going on right now. But let's go back and 49 00:03:08,000 --> 00:03:11,080 Speaker 1: talk about how do we get here? How do we 50 00:03:11,120 --> 00:03:17,880 Speaker 1: get to this point? This particular operation marks the most 51 00:03:17,880 --> 00:03:22,280 Speaker 1: serious escalation sense a brief, intense twelve day air war, 52 00:03:23,080 --> 00:03:26,680 Speaker 1: and I mean solely air war. Last June June twenty 53 00:03:26,720 --> 00:03:32,799 Speaker 1: twenty five, that earlier conflict do Operation Midnight Hammer, targeted 54 00:03:32,919 --> 00:03:38,000 Speaker 1: Iran's nuclear facilities at Naton's Foordeaux in Isafon. Iran said 55 00:03:38,000 --> 00:03:40,760 Speaker 1: his program was set back, but not destroyed, and they 56 00:03:40,760 --> 00:03:46,280 Speaker 1: went right back to work trying to enrich uranium. Then, 57 00:03:46,400 --> 00:03:51,559 Speaker 1: beginning in late December of twenty twenty five, massive nationwide 58 00:03:51,720 --> 00:03:55,960 Speaker 1: anti government protests erupted in Iran, driven by several factors, 59 00:03:56,000 --> 00:04:00,000 Speaker 1: an economic crisis, the collapse of their dollar, the reality 60 00:04:00,880 --> 00:04:04,080 Speaker 1: and soaring prices. Inflation was uneral one thousand percent or more. 61 00:04:05,480 --> 00:04:10,440 Speaker 1: It became the largest protests in country since the nineteen 62 00:04:10,480 --> 00:04:14,400 Speaker 1: seventy nine revolution. It spread to more than one hundred cities, 63 00:04:15,120 --> 00:04:19,120 Speaker 1: It was across all of the provinces, it was everywhere, 64 00:04:20,240 --> 00:04:25,160 Speaker 1: and the mola's response, the Eyetola's response, massacres of protesters. 65 00:04:26,800 --> 00:04:30,960 Speaker 1: The US based human rights activist news agency estimated the 66 00:04:30,960 --> 00:04:34,560 Speaker 1: death toll at seven thousand. The Iranian government said here 67 00:04:34,600 --> 00:04:37,760 Speaker 1: was thirty one hundred. President Trump put the number at 68 00:04:37,800 --> 00:04:41,240 Speaker 1: thirty two thousand. We probably will never know the full 69 00:04:41,320 --> 00:04:45,320 Speaker 1: truth because the internet got shut down across the entire country. 70 00:04:45,760 --> 00:04:50,360 Speaker 1: So negotiations then started back up in February between US 71 00:04:50,400 --> 00:04:55,240 Speaker 1: and Iran over nuclear and ballistic missile programs, all being 72 00:04:55,360 --> 00:04:59,440 Speaker 1: mediated by Oman as a so called air quote here 73 00:04:59,520 --> 00:05:03,360 Speaker 1: neutral terror. They had three rounds of talks in Geneva 74 00:05:03,440 --> 00:05:07,280 Speaker 1: and then right up until this morning. Oman's foreign minister 75 00:05:07,360 --> 00:05:12,400 Speaker 1: said just yesterday that a breakthrough had been reached. Iran 76 00:05:12,480 --> 00:05:17,440 Speaker 1: had reportedly agreed to never stockpile enriched uranium and to 77 00:05:17,640 --> 00:05:24,600 Speaker 1: accept full IAA, the International Topic Energy Administration their verification. 78 00:05:25,520 --> 00:05:29,039 Speaker 1: So the Foreign minister said that peace was quote within reach. 79 00:05:30,480 --> 00:05:33,279 Speaker 1: So the United States and Iran concluded their third round 80 00:05:33,320 --> 00:05:37,960 Speaker 1: of talks in Geneva on Thursday. Two days later, the 81 00:05:38,000 --> 00:05:45,599 Speaker 1: bomb started falling. So what is this operation? Today? This morning, 82 00:05:46,080 --> 00:05:48,240 Speaker 1: at least at two o'clock our time, when the President 83 00:05:48,800 --> 00:05:54,520 Speaker 1: released his pre recorded speech, Israel and the United States 84 00:05:54,640 --> 00:05:59,680 Speaker 1: launched a joint attack on targets in Tehran Isfavon, Coomb Karaj, 85 00:06:00,160 --> 00:06:05,200 Speaker 1: and Kermina Shaw. Israel called its Operation Roaring Lion. The 86 00:06:05,279 --> 00:06:10,000 Speaker 1: Pentagon named ours Operation Epic Fury. Now. The objectives stated 87 00:06:10,120 --> 00:06:12,520 Speaker 1: very clearly by the President in a pre recorded video 88 00:06:12,560 --> 00:06:17,280 Speaker 1: released as the strikes began, is this destroy Iran's missiles, 89 00:06:18,279 --> 00:06:24,760 Speaker 1: raise their missile industry, obliterate Iran's ballistic missile infrastructure, weaken 90 00:06:24,800 --> 00:06:28,480 Speaker 1: its naval power, prevent Iran from ever obtaining a nuclear 91 00:06:28,520 --> 00:06:33,359 Speaker 1: weapon period, and the fourth objective the one that changes everything, 92 00:06:34,760 --> 00:06:40,799 Speaker 1: topple the regime. So Trump called on Iranian civilians to 93 00:06:40,839 --> 00:06:47,200 Speaker 1: take over the government once the attacks finish. He said, 94 00:06:47,440 --> 00:06:51,479 Speaker 1: the hour of your freedom is at hand now. Trump 95 00:06:51,520 --> 00:06:54,599 Speaker 1: also called on members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard the 96 00:06:54,600 --> 00:06:58,400 Speaker 1: IRGC to lay down their arms in exchange for immunity, 97 00:06:58,920 --> 00:07:01,360 Speaker 1: warning that their refuse lay down their arms would mean 98 00:07:01,440 --> 00:07:09,920 Speaker 1: certain death. He gave them an out. Flip turnsides, come 99 00:07:09,920 --> 00:07:15,240 Speaker 1: over to our side. Now. I want to emphasize this 100 00:07:15,400 --> 00:07:20,280 Speaker 1: is not a surgical strike like what we saw before. 101 00:07:21,360 --> 00:07:25,440 Speaker 1: This is a war, a war. We need to call 102 00:07:25,480 --> 00:07:27,160 Speaker 1: it what it is. It is a war with a 103 00:07:27,200 --> 00:07:31,720 Speaker 1: political objective. So that's where we are. That's kind of 104 00:07:31,760 --> 00:07:38,520 Speaker 1: what's going on. But my first question was what does 105 00:07:38,520 --> 00:07:41,840 Speaker 1: the military picture look at look like? What's the size 106 00:07:41,840 --> 00:07:45,200 Speaker 1: and scope? Because I've heard Trump talk about the largest 107 00:07:45,320 --> 00:07:50,760 Speaker 1: armada ever has assembled in the Middle East. Washington indeed 108 00:07:50,760 --> 00:07:53,280 Speaker 1: has assembled a large fleet of fighter jets and warships 109 00:07:53,280 --> 00:07:56,520 Speaker 1: in the region that it is the most significant military 110 00:07:56,520 --> 00:07:59,040 Speaker 1: build up in the Middle East since the Iraq War. 111 00:08:00,360 --> 00:08:03,320 Speaker 1: For example, the USS Gerald R. Ford Carrier Strike Group 112 00:08:03,400 --> 00:08:07,080 Speaker 1: joined the USS Abraham Lincoln, which had already been operating 113 00:08:07,080 --> 00:08:11,200 Speaker 1: the Arabianca off the coast of Aman, positioning US naval 114 00:08:11,240 --> 00:08:14,559 Speaker 1: power within striking distance of Iran. And then the Navy 115 00:08:14,720 --> 00:08:18,520 Speaker 1: also deployed multiple guided missile destroyers equipped with advanced air 116 00:08:18,560 --> 00:08:22,040 Speaker 1: defense and ballistic missile interception systems, all of which are 117 00:08:22,040 --> 00:08:28,880 Speaker 1: capable of launching Tomahawk cruise missiles deep inside Iran, and 118 00:08:28,920 --> 00:08:33,160 Speaker 1: according to US officials, dozens of US strikes are being 119 00:08:33,200 --> 00:08:36,360 Speaker 1: carried out by attack planes based to bases all around 120 00:08:36,400 --> 00:08:39,280 Speaker 1: the Middle East from one or more of the aircraft carriers. 121 00:08:39,520 --> 00:08:42,720 Speaker 1: Strikes are being conducted by air and by sea. Israeli 122 00:08:42,760 --> 00:08:45,800 Speaker 1: military officials confirmed that the United States and Israel had 123 00:08:45,800 --> 00:08:50,280 Speaker 1: worked jointly for thousands of hours to develop a bank 124 00:08:50,400 --> 00:08:57,160 Speaker 1: of targets. So now, what's Iran's sponts response? What's the 125 00:08:57,240 --> 00:09:07,880 Speaker 1: retaliation that's next? Don't go away, Welcome back to the 126 00:09:07,840 --> 00:09:12,400 Speaker 1: weekending with Michael Brown. Then have you with me? Happy Saturday? 127 00:09:12,480 --> 00:09:18,480 Speaker 1: Everybody where at war? Yeah, nothing like doing your show prep, 128 00:09:18,640 --> 00:09:21,520 Speaker 1: you know, checking everything before you go to bed last night. Yeah, 129 00:09:21,520 --> 00:09:23,599 Speaker 1: I think I'll do this, this and this, kind of 130 00:09:23,640 --> 00:09:25,760 Speaker 1: putting your tabs in order, getting everything kind of ready. 131 00:09:25,880 --> 00:09:28,559 Speaker 1: Wake up this morning and it's kind of like, holy crap, Batman, 132 00:09:28,640 --> 00:09:31,880 Speaker 1: what's going on? Text lines open three three, one zero 133 00:09:31,880 --> 00:09:34,920 Speaker 1: three keyword Mike ro Michael. So, what's been the response 134 00:09:34,960 --> 00:09:40,559 Speaker 1: so far? Well, the Rangings didn't wait. They launched dozens 135 00:09:40,559 --> 00:09:42,960 Speaker 1: of ballistic missiles across the entire Middle East, not just 136 00:09:43,000 --> 00:09:47,000 Speaker 1: it Israel. Yes, they targeted Israel, and they targeted our 137 00:09:47,080 --> 00:09:50,800 Speaker 1: basis in Jordan, Syria, Kuwait, Bahrain, Cutter, Saudi Arabia and 138 00:09:50,840 --> 00:09:54,640 Speaker 1: the United Arab Emeralds, and then the hoo Thies, that 139 00:09:54,920 --> 00:09:58,000 Speaker 1: ragtag group of terrorists down in Yemen decided they would 140 00:09:58,040 --> 00:10:02,720 Speaker 1: resume attacks in the Red Sea. A little footnote here, 141 00:10:03,720 --> 00:10:06,760 Speaker 1: a little free financial advice, and I'm not a financial advisor. 142 00:10:07,800 --> 00:10:10,040 Speaker 1: Go fill your car up with gas today. This is 143 00:10:10,120 --> 00:10:12,560 Speaker 1: kind of like going out to buy toilet paper because 144 00:10:12,600 --> 00:10:16,760 Speaker 1: there's a snowstorm coming. But I guarantee to you that 145 00:10:17,200 --> 00:10:19,800 Speaker 1: gas prices are probably going to soar over the next 146 00:10:19,840 --> 00:10:23,400 Speaker 1: several days, and the longer this goes on, whether there's 147 00:10:23,400 --> 00:10:25,600 Speaker 1: a supply disruption or not, it's not going to make 148 00:10:25,600 --> 00:10:28,440 Speaker 1: any difference. Gas prices are going to go up, so 149 00:10:28,480 --> 00:10:31,240 Speaker 1: you might want to stop at your local gas station 150 00:10:31,360 --> 00:10:34,679 Speaker 1: and put some gas in your car today. Now, so far, 151 00:10:34,679 --> 00:10:36,559 Speaker 1: I've been able to find a video that's emerged of 152 00:10:36,600 --> 00:10:39,520 Speaker 1: a missile strike in the US Navy headquarters in Bahrain. 153 00:10:40,880 --> 00:10:44,040 Speaker 1: Saudi Arabia's Reacht and Eastern Province were also targeted. So 154 00:10:44,080 --> 00:10:47,360 Speaker 1: now they're going after the Saudis. The Kingdom called the 155 00:10:47,400 --> 00:10:52,320 Speaker 1: attacks cowardly and said that the Iranian authorities knew full 156 00:10:52,400 --> 00:10:55,320 Speaker 1: well that Saudi Arabia had said that it would not 157 00:10:55,440 --> 00:10:59,840 Speaker 1: permit use of its airspace or territory to target the Iranians. 158 00:11:00,880 --> 00:11:05,280 Speaker 1: And then Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Argatchi told NBC News 159 00:11:05,280 --> 00:11:09,679 Speaker 1: from Tehran that quote, almost all officials are safe and 160 00:11:09,760 --> 00:11:13,280 Speaker 1: sound and alive. We may have lost one or two commanders, 161 00:11:13,600 --> 00:11:16,640 Speaker 1: but that is not a big problem. I love that. Yeah, 162 00:11:16,679 --> 00:11:18,560 Speaker 1: we lost a couple of generals, but no big deal. 163 00:11:19,800 --> 00:11:22,600 Speaker 1: He also said that Iran was willing to talk if 164 00:11:22,760 --> 00:11:26,160 Speaker 1: we stopped shooting. Might be a little late for that. 165 00:11:26,440 --> 00:11:30,360 Speaker 1: What do you think? However, Israeli and regional sources report 166 00:11:30,400 --> 00:11:34,600 Speaker 1: that the Ranian Defense Minister Aziz Nazaridah and the IRGC 167 00:11:34,760 --> 00:11:39,320 Speaker 1: commander Makmu Papor were likely killed in the Israeli air strikes. 168 00:11:40,120 --> 00:11:46,240 Speaker 1: The battle damage assessments are just ongoing. I heard General 169 00:11:46,320 --> 00:11:49,880 Speaker 1: Jack Keen this morning on Fox News, who's a one 170 00:11:49,920 --> 00:11:55,200 Speaker 1: of their contributors, talk about how the Israeli intelligence. He 171 00:11:55,320 --> 00:12:02,600 Speaker 1: described it as exquisite, exquisite intelligence. I rarely for those 172 00:12:02,640 --> 00:12:04,920 Speaker 1: of you never had to deal with the CIA or 173 00:12:04,960 --> 00:12:07,560 Speaker 1: the DA or any of the other NSA like I have. 174 00:12:08,280 --> 00:12:15,439 Speaker 1: Intelligence is generally a mixed bag. It's you really want 175 00:12:15,480 --> 00:12:20,160 Speaker 1: to know. The keyword is actionable? Is the intelligence actionable? 176 00:12:20,280 --> 00:12:23,600 Speaker 1: Meaning is it something we can actually act on. I've 177 00:12:23,640 --> 00:12:28,080 Speaker 1: never heard it described as exquisite, and he went on 178 00:12:28,160 --> 00:12:31,840 Speaker 1: to describe how the Israelis had been able to infiltrate 179 00:12:32,720 --> 00:12:37,120 Speaker 1: the Iranians Iranian society. They were able to get videos 180 00:12:37,160 --> 00:12:42,360 Speaker 1: in talking to citizens and to IRGC members about how 181 00:12:42,360 --> 00:12:44,360 Speaker 1: they could flip, how they could come over, how they 182 00:12:44,400 --> 00:12:47,320 Speaker 1: would get protection, how we would help them re establish 183 00:12:47,600 --> 00:12:51,040 Speaker 1: I mean, it is amazing. And then you might wonder, 184 00:12:52,160 --> 00:12:56,079 Speaker 1: or maybe you don't, but I certainly wondered, why are 185 00:12:56,120 --> 00:12:59,760 Speaker 1: we striking in the middle of the day if you're 186 00:12:59,800 --> 00:13:03,360 Speaker 1: thought about that, because usually you strike at night in 187 00:13:03,440 --> 00:13:07,000 Speaker 1: the dark, when you're not quite sure. There's confusion, you 188 00:13:07,000 --> 00:13:10,560 Speaker 1: know you if you strike, uh, you know power stations, 189 00:13:10,600 --> 00:13:13,400 Speaker 1: there's no electricity, there's no power. People in the dark, 190 00:13:13,600 --> 00:13:16,440 Speaker 1: so it causes chaos and confusion. Why would you strike 191 00:13:16,559 --> 00:13:21,559 Speaker 1: during the day. I think it goes to the exquisite intelligence. 192 00:13:22,960 --> 00:13:24,959 Speaker 1: Now I don't know this for a fact, So and 193 00:13:25,280 --> 00:13:29,200 Speaker 1: we're you know, all the earlier reports in any disaster, 194 00:13:29,320 --> 00:13:36,679 Speaker 1: in any battle are usually anywhere between ninety wrong. But 195 00:13:36,720 --> 00:13:40,560 Speaker 1: the rumor is that we struck this morning during day 196 00:13:40,640 --> 00:13:43,160 Speaker 1: or our morning, but there evening, but still during daylight 197 00:13:44,679 --> 00:13:49,360 Speaker 1: because we knew that the leadership of the Mullahs was 198 00:13:49,400 --> 00:13:52,880 Speaker 1: gathering in one place. And whether that's true or not, 199 00:13:52,920 --> 00:13:56,120 Speaker 1: I don't know, but it makes sense for doing a 200 00:13:56,160 --> 00:13:59,880 Speaker 1: strike during the day. There's also new satellite imagery, this 201 00:14:00,120 --> 00:14:04,280 Speaker 1: captured by Airbus of all things. This shows multiple structures 202 00:14:04,280 --> 00:14:08,520 Speaker 1: within a secure type Tehran compound widely understood to be 203 00:14:08,520 --> 00:14:12,160 Speaker 1: the official residence and the administrative compound of Supreme Leader 204 00:14:12,240 --> 00:14:15,160 Speaker 1: kammen A that looked to be heavily damaged or destroyed. 205 00:14:16,000 --> 00:14:19,520 Speaker 1: Kammone himself well, his whereabouts have been unclear for weeks. 206 00:14:20,000 --> 00:14:23,680 Speaker 1: There've been conflicting reports. Iran's foreign minister says he is 207 00:14:24,000 --> 00:14:29,200 Speaker 1: he is alive as far as I know, hmm, as 208 00:14:29,240 --> 00:14:32,880 Speaker 1: far as I know. Not exactly an overwhelming voted confidence. Right, 209 00:14:34,280 --> 00:14:38,800 Speaker 1: But have you ever thought about the chess board? Because 210 00:14:38,840 --> 00:14:41,400 Speaker 1: I want to give you a little perspective about how 211 00:14:41,440 --> 00:14:44,920 Speaker 1: Trump set this up. Here's what I want you to understand. 212 00:14:46,200 --> 00:14:49,960 Speaker 1: This attack obviously did not happen in a vacuum. The 213 00:14:50,000 --> 00:14:55,160 Speaker 1: Trump administration has been methodically moving pieces on a global, 214 00:14:55,280 --> 00:14:59,800 Speaker 1: worldwide chess board for months. We've talked about some of them. 215 00:15:00,480 --> 00:15:02,360 Speaker 1: Let's start, let's kind of work our way backwards a 216 00:15:02,400 --> 00:15:07,760 Speaker 1: little bit. Let's go back to January third, just almost 217 00:15:07,840 --> 00:15:12,400 Speaker 1: just two months ago, Venezuela, in an operation called Absolute Resolve, 218 00:15:13,280 --> 00:15:17,760 Speaker 1: US Forces Raid of Caracus, toppled Nicholas Maduro brought him 219 00:15:17,800 --> 00:15:20,560 Speaker 1: to New York to face drug and arms trafficking charges. Now, 220 00:15:20,600 --> 00:15:23,560 Speaker 1: what does that have to do with the Iranians? Because 221 00:15:23,760 --> 00:15:29,000 Speaker 1: China buys most of Venezuela's oil, So that operation cut 222 00:15:29,080 --> 00:15:32,280 Speaker 1: off a major source of cheap foreign oil for Beijing. 223 00:15:33,200 --> 00:15:38,160 Speaker 1: And critically, neither Russia nor China intervened to defend their 224 00:15:38,200 --> 00:15:42,840 Speaker 1: ally Venezuela. When we acted, that sent a message to 225 00:15:43,200 --> 00:15:46,200 Speaker 1: every country in the world watching, and especially to Tehran, 226 00:15:47,400 --> 00:15:52,320 Speaker 1: that Moscow and Beijing cannot protect you. Now, the Venezuela 227 00:15:52,360 --> 00:15:56,920 Speaker 1: operation also had a military intelligence dividend because the Uranians 228 00:15:56,920 --> 00:16:01,240 Speaker 1: had supplied drones and weapons systems to the Venuelans. To Maduro, 229 00:16:02,240 --> 00:16:06,320 Speaker 1: those Iranian drone designs the same Mahir Sik systems that 230 00:16:06,400 --> 00:16:12,480 Speaker 1: Russia used in Ukraine, were president president at Venezuelan, at airbases, 231 00:16:13,680 --> 00:16:17,040 Speaker 1: So we took those systems, studied them, jammed them, destroyed them. 232 00:16:17,400 --> 00:16:20,360 Speaker 1: Think of Venezuela as a live fire test of the 233 00:16:20,400 --> 00:16:25,040 Speaker 1: exact weapons that Iran would use in retaliation against our strikes. 234 00:16:27,000 --> 00:16:32,280 Speaker 1: Think about Russia. Russia doesn't have the budget, Russia doesn't 235 00:16:32,320 --> 00:16:37,840 Speaker 1: have the bandwidth at all to keep supplying the Iranians. 236 00:16:38,240 --> 00:16:41,400 Speaker 1: Much of Iran's air defense arsenal is based on Russian 237 00:16:41,440 --> 00:16:46,880 Speaker 1: and Chinese systems, or Iranian knockoffs of those systems. Russia's 238 00:16:46,880 --> 00:16:49,520 Speaker 1: Foreign minister warned against strikes in Iran, but as Brookings 239 00:16:49,520 --> 00:16:53,480 Speaker 1: Institute noted, Russian in action following last June's airstrike on 240 00:16:53,520 --> 00:16:58,080 Speaker 1: the Iranian nuclear facilities replicated exactly what happened in Venezuela. 241 00:16:58,160 --> 00:17:00,920 Speaker 1: So when push comes to shove, Russia does nothing but 242 00:17:00,960 --> 00:17:05,120 Speaker 1: issue a bunch of press releases. Ukraine's presidents Lensky put 243 00:17:05,200 --> 00:17:09,760 Speaker 1: up perfectly this morning quote. Whenever, of course, he is 244 00:17:09,760 --> 00:17:13,359 Speaker 1: a self interested in this too. Whenever there is American resolve, 245 00:17:13,440 --> 00:17:19,320 Speaker 1: he said, global criminals weaken this understanding must also come 246 00:17:19,359 --> 00:17:23,560 Speaker 1: to the Russians. And then, of course then there's China. 247 00:17:23,880 --> 00:17:27,080 Speaker 1: Beijing condemned the Venezuela operation. They called it a clear 248 00:17:27,200 --> 00:17:30,440 Speaker 1: violation of international law, which I always find hilarious when 249 00:17:30,440 --> 00:17:33,480 Speaker 1: all these little tin horned dictators like Xijen Ping talked, 250 00:17:33,520 --> 00:17:36,600 Speaker 1: you know, it's a clear violation in international law, something 251 00:17:36,640 --> 00:17:38,879 Speaker 1: they do every single day of their lives. And then 252 00:17:38,960 --> 00:17:42,960 Speaker 1: China said it was deeply shocked, deeply shocked. But China 253 00:17:43,000 --> 00:17:50,320 Speaker 1: did nothing. Over at the Center for the Strategic Institute 254 00:17:50,400 --> 00:17:54,200 Speaker 1: of War, they had something interesting to say that's coming 255 00:17:54,280 --> 00:18:07,000 Speaker 1: up next. Don't go away to night. Michael Brown joins 256 00:18:07,040 --> 00:18:09,080 Speaker 1: me here, the former FEMA director of talk show host 257 00:18:09,080 --> 00:18:11,800 Speaker 1: Michael Brown. Brownie, No, Brownie, You're doing a heck of 258 00:18:11,800 --> 00:18:15,159 Speaker 1: a job the Weekend with Michael Brown. Welcome back to 259 00:18:15,160 --> 00:18:17,000 Speaker 1: the Weekend with Michael Brown. Glad to have you with me. 260 00:18:17,080 --> 00:18:22,959 Speaker 1: We're talking about the setup this morning on our battle 261 00:18:23,320 --> 00:18:27,200 Speaker 1: with the Israelis against the Mullahs in Iran, and we're 262 00:18:27,200 --> 00:18:30,840 Speaker 1: walking through kind of what's happened so far and right 263 00:18:30,880 --> 00:18:33,640 Speaker 1: now we're walking through the chessboard and how Trump set 264 00:18:33,680 --> 00:18:37,840 Speaker 1: this up. I find the part of how he set 265 00:18:37,880 --> 00:18:42,880 Speaker 1: it up most amazing because it shows an incredible strategic 266 00:18:43,160 --> 00:18:47,000 Speaker 1: mind on the part of Trump's advisors, and for that matter, 267 00:18:47,040 --> 00:18:51,879 Speaker 1: for Trump himself, about let's, you know, let's start these negotiations, 268 00:18:52,800 --> 00:18:56,480 Speaker 1: let's drag the negotiations out. But in the meantime, let's 269 00:18:56,520 --> 00:18:59,399 Speaker 1: make all these maneuvers else place, in other places in 270 00:18:59,440 --> 00:19:03,240 Speaker 1: the world, so if and when we do strike strike 271 00:19:03,280 --> 00:19:07,360 Speaker 1: the Iranians, we'll have certain things in place. So that's 272 00:19:07,400 --> 00:19:09,879 Speaker 1: what we're going through right now is the chessboard. And 273 00:19:09,920 --> 00:19:12,240 Speaker 1: the first thing I pointed out was Venezuela kind of 274 00:19:12,240 --> 00:19:17,240 Speaker 1: working our way backwards. And Venezuela gave us incredible intelligence 275 00:19:17,320 --> 00:19:24,280 Speaker 1: about the Iranian drones because the drones that we seized 276 00:19:24,359 --> 00:19:29,000 Speaker 1: in Caracas, well throughout Venezuela, manufactured by the Russians and 277 00:19:29,040 --> 00:19:32,320 Speaker 1: some by the Chinese, were able to reverse engineer them, 278 00:19:32,680 --> 00:19:35,760 Speaker 1: destroy a bunch of them, understand how to you know, 279 00:19:35,960 --> 00:19:41,639 Speaker 1: counter counteract them, and it gave us incredible intelligence. But 280 00:19:41,720 --> 00:19:45,680 Speaker 1: it also showed that China and the Russians weren't willing 281 00:19:45,720 --> 00:19:48,080 Speaker 1: to lift a finger to do anything about what we 282 00:19:48,119 --> 00:19:51,439 Speaker 1: did in our own hemisphere, didn't lift a finger to 283 00:19:51,160 --> 00:19:54,639 Speaker 1: help to help Maduro or for that matter, anything at all. 284 00:19:55,040 --> 00:19:59,960 Speaker 1: And it also cut off the lifeblood to the China 285 00:20:00,080 --> 00:20:03,320 Speaker 1: He's Communist party, and that is the cheap Venezuelan oil. 286 00:20:04,760 --> 00:20:07,360 Speaker 1: Then we get to Russia, and it's obviously that Russia 287 00:20:07,480 --> 00:20:11,280 Speaker 1: doesn't have the bandwidth or the budget for that matter, 288 00:20:12,080 --> 00:20:16,760 Speaker 1: to keep supplying the terraces in Tehran. Now we're going 289 00:20:16,800 --> 00:20:21,800 Speaker 1: through China, and CSIS put it bluntly, many countries are 290 00:20:21,800 --> 00:20:26,360 Speaker 1: seeing that Russia and China cannot protect them. Those alliances 291 00:20:26,440 --> 00:20:33,359 Speaker 1: have severe limitations. So with Venezuelan neutralize neutralized and the 292 00:20:33,440 --> 00:20:37,959 Speaker 1: Ranians are now under assault, China now loses two major 293 00:20:38,080 --> 00:20:41,640 Speaker 1: discount oil sources, and now they have to watch their 294 00:20:41,640 --> 00:20:47,320 Speaker 1: soul called Axis of Resistance start to crumble. All while 295 00:20:47,440 --> 00:20:52,640 Speaker 1: Xijinping has got to recalculate whether his military is actually 296 00:20:52,760 --> 00:20:56,359 Speaker 1: ready to challenge the United States over Taiwan or not. 297 00:20:58,280 --> 00:20:59,840 Speaker 1: He may think this is a good time to make 298 00:20:59,880 --> 00:21:04,480 Speaker 1: a move, but he doesn't necessarily have the energy to 299 00:21:04,720 --> 00:21:09,840 Speaker 1: keep his military operating. So, in essence, the Trump administration 300 00:21:10,000 --> 00:21:13,600 Speaker 1: spent months making sure that if and when this moment came, 301 00:21:14,480 --> 00:21:22,639 Speaker 1: our adversaries were overextended, distracted, depleted, and somewhat isolated. But 302 00:21:22,800 --> 00:21:27,119 Speaker 1: let's go to our allies. Let's talk about Europeans for 303 00:21:27,160 --> 00:21:31,040 Speaker 1: a moment good grief. Driving into the studio this morning, 304 00:21:31,080 --> 00:21:33,919 Speaker 1: I heard Keir Starmer, the Prime Minister of Great Britain. 305 00:21:34,520 --> 00:21:38,600 Speaker 1: If you're a brit and somehow you're listening to this program, 306 00:21:38,640 --> 00:21:42,119 Speaker 1: either because you listen to the podcast or you're a 307 00:21:42,160 --> 00:21:47,439 Speaker 1: part of the diaspora of BRIT's in this country, you 308 00:21:47,520 --> 00:21:53,000 Speaker 1: need a new leader badly. What a weak guy. Anyway, 309 00:21:53,040 --> 00:21:56,560 Speaker 1: The leaders of France, Germany in the UK jointly said 310 00:21:57,080 --> 00:22:00,680 Speaker 1: that they did not participate in these strikes. Oh okay, 311 00:22:01,280 --> 00:22:03,920 Speaker 1: what are you doing. You're trying to tell them, mollas, hey, don't, don't, don't, don't, 312 00:22:04,280 --> 00:22:07,120 Speaker 1: don't shoot at us. We didn't do anything. They threw 313 00:22:07,160 --> 00:22:11,040 Speaker 1: up the white flag immediately, and then they did though 314 00:22:11,080 --> 00:22:14,560 Speaker 1: they did reiterate their concerns about Aram's nuclear program, and 315 00:22:14,600 --> 00:22:17,000 Speaker 1: then of course they condemned the regimes of violence against 316 00:22:17,000 --> 00:22:19,919 Speaker 1: its own people, but they stopped short of supporting the 317 00:22:19,960 --> 00:22:23,320 Speaker 1: operation of even saying you know, we're not a part 318 00:22:23,359 --> 00:22:29,200 Speaker 1: of it, but we wish you well. Macron, the French president, 319 00:22:29,880 --> 00:22:32,880 Speaker 1: called the strikes an outbreak of war that carries serious 320 00:22:32,920 --> 00:22:36,000 Speaker 1: consequences for international peace and security, and call for an 321 00:22:36,119 --> 00:22:42,280 Speaker 1: urgent un Security Council meeting. Typical European Yep, that was 322 00:22:42,320 --> 00:22:44,399 Speaker 1: damn Americans, you know have saved our asses back in 323 00:22:44,480 --> 00:22:47,520 Speaker 1: World War Two. They're at it again. Let's have a meeting. 324 00:22:48,760 --> 00:22:52,639 Speaker 1: Canada's Prime Minister Carney. He actually took a different tone, 325 00:22:53,040 --> 00:22:57,080 Speaker 1: supporting quote the United States acting to prevent Iran from 326 00:22:57,080 --> 00:23:02,280 Speaker 1: obtaining a nuclear weapon. Wow. Good for him. Well, I 327 00:23:02,280 --> 00:23:05,400 Speaker 1: guess if you're the next door neighbor to you know, 328 00:23:05,560 --> 00:23:07,200 Speaker 1: a guy that many people in the world see is 329 00:23:07,240 --> 00:23:09,199 Speaker 1: a nut job. You know, they kind of like used 330 00:23:09,200 --> 00:23:11,640 Speaker 1: to call Ronald Reagan crazy. They probably look at Donald 331 00:23:11,640 --> 00:23:13,960 Speaker 1: Trump think he's crazy too. So if you live next door, 332 00:23:14,760 --> 00:23:17,200 Speaker 1: And of course the Mexicans are probably they're too busy 333 00:23:17,200 --> 00:23:19,280 Speaker 1: trying to fight the cartels right now, so we don't 334 00:23:19,280 --> 00:23:22,960 Speaker 1: have to worry about our neighbors. But the mediator in 335 00:23:23,000 --> 00:23:27,120 Speaker 1: Oman that was broken in the Geneva talks said he 336 00:23:27,200 --> 00:23:32,119 Speaker 1: was dismayed, saying that active and serious nogreat negotiations have 337 00:23:32,320 --> 00:23:36,359 Speaker 1: yet again been undermine. He's kind of like bagdad, Bob, 338 00:23:37,400 --> 00:23:39,640 Speaker 1: just say anything like old man, oh yeah, and leave 339 00:23:39,720 --> 00:23:42,080 Speaker 1: us alone because we are neutral. And by the way, 340 00:23:42,119 --> 00:23:44,679 Speaker 1: if you look at where the missiles have struck elsewhere 341 00:23:44,680 --> 00:23:49,760 Speaker 1: in the Middle East, Yes, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, 342 00:23:50,520 --> 00:23:54,879 Speaker 1: everywhere except Oman now Russian China. Dig condemned the strikes 343 00:23:54,880 --> 00:24:00,000 Speaker 1: as an illegal aggression, which I find hilarious. Vladim, You're 344 00:24:00,160 --> 00:24:03,960 Speaker 1: putin is calling our aggression illegal. Well, that's to be expected, 345 00:24:05,280 --> 00:24:09,800 Speaker 1: and former President Medvedev posted online with a bitter sarcasm 346 00:24:10,200 --> 00:24:15,679 Speaker 1: the talks with Iran were just a cover. Everyone knew that. No, 347 00:24:15,920 --> 00:24:18,720 Speaker 1: you know, I actually disagree with that. I think the 348 00:24:18,800 --> 00:24:23,000 Speaker 1: talks were genuine, but I also think they were realistic. 349 00:24:24,119 --> 00:24:29,879 Speaker 1: And when when in the past almost five decades have 350 00:24:29,960 --> 00:24:35,159 Speaker 1: the Iranians ever kept their word. Now let's go to 351 00:24:35,200 --> 00:24:40,320 Speaker 1: the experts. The Vice President said previously that any operation 352 00:24:40,440 --> 00:24:43,800 Speaker 1: will not be protracted. Ned Yahoo said it will last 353 00:24:43,920 --> 00:24:49,000 Speaker 1: as long as needed. Anonymous US officials told CNN the 354 00:24:49,119 --> 00:24:52,600 Speaker 1: United States is planning for several days of attacks, and 355 00:24:52,640 --> 00:24:56,359 Speaker 1: then let's go to the Atlantic Council. Not exactly a 356 00:24:56,600 --> 00:25:01,480 Speaker 1: bastion of right wing conservatism. They do have veterans of 357 00:25:01,520 --> 00:25:05,200 Speaker 1: the Israeli Defense intelligence on their boards and in their programs. 358 00:25:05,960 --> 00:25:09,920 Speaker 1: They're sounding a note of caution. The central question remains unresolved. 359 00:25:09,920 --> 00:25:13,160 Speaker 1: What's the endgame? They want to know can external military 360 00:25:13,200 --> 00:25:17,919 Speaker 1: pressure realistic, realistically produce internal change in Iran when the 361 00:25:17,920 --> 00:25:21,280 Speaker 1: regime has operated for forty seven years under the discipline 362 00:25:21,320 --> 00:25:25,320 Speaker 1: control of the IRGC, to which I would say, well, 363 00:25:25,359 --> 00:25:29,840 Speaker 1: why do you think that all of these efforts by 364 00:25:30,080 --> 00:25:35,840 Speaker 1: the masade before the attacks were put in place to 365 00:25:36,200 --> 00:25:39,600 Speaker 1: try to identify or to try to at least communicate 366 00:25:39,600 --> 00:25:42,320 Speaker 1: to members of the IRGC. Hey, if and when we 367 00:25:42,359 --> 00:25:45,040 Speaker 1: decide to blow the crap out of you, if you 368 00:25:45,080 --> 00:25:46,679 Speaker 1: want to surrender or you want to come over to 369 00:25:46,720 --> 00:25:49,760 Speaker 1: our site, we'll welcome you. And even the President said 370 00:25:49,760 --> 00:25:53,920 Speaker 1: in this public address, will grant you immunity. So we'll 371 00:25:53,960 --> 00:25:59,560 Speaker 1: find out just how disciplined the IRGC is now. One 372 00:25:59,600 --> 00:26:02,879 Speaker 1: expert warns that the greatest danger is a prolonged campaign 373 00:26:03,200 --> 00:26:06,320 Speaker 1: that fails to produce dramatic internal change and lacks a 374 00:26:06,359 --> 00:26:10,200 Speaker 1: clearly defined termination mechanism, which would result in an open 375 00:26:10,280 --> 00:26:13,440 Speaker 1: ended conflict with no visible conclusion on the horizon. Again 376 00:26:13,480 --> 00:26:18,080 Speaker 1: from the Atlantic Council, Well, yes that is true, but 377 00:26:18,160 --> 00:26:23,959 Speaker 1: there's a counter argument. Iran entered twenty twenty six amid 378 00:26:24,280 --> 00:26:30,040 Speaker 1: nationwide protests economic collapse. I don't think Americans understand that 379 00:26:30,080 --> 00:26:34,440 Speaker 1: the breath of economic pain, a water crisis, fresh water 380 00:26:34,760 --> 00:26:38,160 Speaker 1: they many of them lack fresh water, and the regime's 381 00:26:38,200 --> 00:26:42,240 Speaker 1: brutal reaction, killing thousands, perhaps tens of thousands of protesters, 382 00:26:43,160 --> 00:26:48,919 Speaker 1: makes this moment unique among the history of Iranium protests 383 00:26:48,960 --> 00:26:53,760 Speaker 1: since the revolution in nineteen seventy nine. Another analyst offered 384 00:26:53,760 --> 00:26:57,560 Speaker 1: this historical comparison. The nineteen seventy nine revolution took a 385 00:26:57,680 --> 00:27:01,720 Speaker 1: year to unfold. This erration of protests should be viewed 386 00:27:01,720 --> 00:27:05,120 Speaker 1: as the start of a new era, not another failure 387 00:27:05,440 --> 00:27:13,600 Speaker 1: to bring change. Going back to the Atlantic Council, Alex Puts, US, 388 00:27:13,680 --> 00:27:18,959 Speaker 1: an expert on military programs, warns that Iran could be 389 00:27:19,040 --> 00:27:23,400 Speaker 1: deliberately holding some of its missiles in reserve. Iran may 390 00:27:23,440 --> 00:27:28,080 Speaker 1: be absorbing the first blow, protecting its most capable retaliation 391 00:27:28,520 --> 00:27:32,280 Speaker 1: for later. You think we're not doing the same thing, 392 00:27:33,680 --> 00:27:37,520 Speaker 1: of course, we're doing exactly the same thing. We're not 393 00:27:37,560 --> 00:27:40,080 Speaker 1: going to just blow our wad the first time through 394 00:27:40,520 --> 00:27:44,879 Speaker 1: and then not expect some sort of blowback. I can't 395 00:27:44,920 --> 00:27:51,080 Speaker 1: imagine that the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs raging Cajun 396 00:27:51,160 --> 00:27:56,760 Speaker 1: Dan Kane. I can't imagine that he did not advise 397 00:27:56,840 --> 00:28:00,879 Speaker 1: the President that there would be blowback. Anybody in the 398 00:28:00,960 --> 00:28:03,359 Speaker 1: right mind who go back to the Twelve Day War, 399 00:28:03,880 --> 00:28:08,440 Speaker 1: there was blowback. So I think we prepared. We were 400 00:28:08,880 --> 00:28:15,680 Speaker 1: prepared for that. The question is now how long will 401 00:28:15,760 --> 00:28:20,439 Speaker 1: we wait until we go through the second wave? And 402 00:28:20,480 --> 00:28:23,119 Speaker 1: then I think this question is probably the biggest question 403 00:28:23,240 --> 00:28:29,640 Speaker 1: of all. Now, the Saudis, the Kuwaitis, the Amoradis, they 404 00:28:29,800 --> 00:28:34,520 Speaker 1: all are going to sit quietly. But if the Iranians 405 00:28:34,560 --> 00:28:39,680 Speaker 1: continue to attack American bases on their soil and there's 406 00:28:39,960 --> 00:28:46,280 Speaker 1: any spill over whatsoever into Saudi territory, Kuwait territory, Emordi territory, 407 00:28:47,640 --> 00:28:50,760 Speaker 1: they may at some point decide they're going to strike back. 408 00:28:50,800 --> 00:28:54,880 Speaker 1: Two Because as much as they have to keep the 409 00:28:54,880 --> 00:28:58,320 Speaker 1: peace among themselves and as much as they try to 410 00:28:58,440 --> 00:29:03,800 Speaker 1: keep their kingdoms together, they also know that this is 411 00:29:04,400 --> 00:29:07,760 Speaker 1: a temple on the face of the Middle East and 412 00:29:07,800 --> 00:29:11,000 Speaker 1: that the Ranians have always been the cause of trouble 413 00:29:11,200 --> 00:29:16,680 Speaker 1: even for them. So they may sit quietly. They've already, 414 00:29:17,000 --> 00:29:21,640 Speaker 1: you know, negotiated participating in the Abraham Accords. All that 415 00:29:21,720 --> 00:29:24,600 Speaker 1: was part of the strategic maneuver that Trump did prior 416 00:29:24,640 --> 00:29:28,440 Speaker 1: to this action taking place, And the Uranians may make 417 00:29:28,480 --> 00:29:33,440 Speaker 1: the mistake of just pushing the other Middle Eastern countries 418 00:29:33,960 --> 00:29:37,760 Speaker 1: over the edge. And if they do get ready, so 419 00:29:37,840 --> 00:29:42,560 Speaker 1: then what's last the Uranian people themselves and the diaspora. 420 00:29:42,840 --> 00:29:51,640 Speaker 1: Let's talk about that next. They'll be right back. Welcome 421 00:29:51,640 --> 00:29:53,440 Speaker 1: back to the Beacon of Michael Brown. Glad to have 422 00:29:53,480 --> 00:29:56,280 Speaker 1: you with me. We're talking about this strike on Iran 423 00:29:56,400 --> 00:29:59,560 Speaker 1: this morning by both a joint attack by Israel and 424 00:29:59,560 --> 00:30:02,080 Speaker 1: the United States. This is the part of the story 425 00:30:02,760 --> 00:30:05,760 Speaker 1: that I think the cabal, the mainstream, the dominant media 426 00:30:06,200 --> 00:30:08,440 Speaker 1: is going to underplay. But I think it's the one 427 00:30:08,440 --> 00:30:12,240 Speaker 1: that matters enormously, and that's the Iranian people themselves, both 428 00:30:12,240 --> 00:30:19,120 Speaker 1: in country and in the diaspora. Inside Iran. Videos on 429 00:30:19,200 --> 00:30:22,280 Speaker 1: social media showed cars jamming Tehran streets as people trying 430 00:30:22,280 --> 00:30:26,920 Speaker 1: to flee, but also jubulation among some Iranians chants of 431 00:30:26,920 --> 00:30:30,640 Speaker 1: freedom in Tehran videos that are already circulating on social media. 432 00:30:31,640 --> 00:30:35,160 Speaker 1: The diaspora has been screaming this for months. On Valentine's 433 00:30:35,240 --> 00:30:39,640 Speaker 1: Day alone, two hundred fifty thousand people rallied in Munich. 434 00:30:40,160 --> 00:30:44,520 Speaker 1: It was the largest Iranian focused demonstration in European history, 435 00:30:45,520 --> 00:30:48,560 Speaker 1: while three hundred and fifty thousand gathered in both Toronto 436 00:30:48,640 --> 00:30:55,680 Speaker 1: and Los Angeles. The Crown Prince Rezi Polavi, soun of 437 00:30:55,680 --> 00:30:58,680 Speaker 1: the Lake Shaw and probably the most prominent opposition leader, 438 00:30:59,600 --> 00:31:05,360 Speaker 1: urgedans to prepare to resume protests as the Islamic Republic collapses. 439 00:31:06,800 --> 00:31:10,160 Speaker 1: He called on the military and the security forces to 440 00:31:10,280 --> 00:31:14,840 Speaker 1: change sides to side with the public. He described our interaction, 441 00:31:15,320 --> 00:31:20,440 Speaker 1: our intervention as a humanitarian intervention. He warned citizens to 442 00:31:20,480 --> 00:31:23,480 Speaker 1: stay home for now, saying he would announce the appropriate 443 00:31:23,640 --> 00:31:28,360 Speaker 1: time to return to the streets for final action. His 444 00:31:28,480 --> 00:31:33,280 Speaker 1: words quote, we are very close to final victory now, 445 00:31:33,480 --> 00:31:36,880 Speaker 1: one Iranian American writing in the Star Tribune before today's strikes. 446 00:31:36,920 --> 00:31:40,280 Speaker 1: But it this way. The people of Iran want a 447 00:31:40,400 --> 00:31:44,720 Speaker 1: secular and non Islamic regime. We want to rejoin the 448 00:31:44,760 --> 00:31:48,400 Speaker 1: global community. We do not want our allies to be 449 00:31:48,520 --> 00:31:52,240 Speaker 1: Hamas Hezballah or North Korea. We want our young people 450 00:31:52,240 --> 00:31:54,880 Speaker 1: to work for Google in Tehran and help shape the 451 00:31:54,880 --> 00:31:59,480 Speaker 1: Ai revolution. So that's who we're fighting for, not just 452 00:31:59,480 --> 00:32:03,600 Speaker 1: for America and security, but for the Uranian people themselves. 453 00:32:04,240 --> 00:32:08,800 Speaker 1: I happened to listen to one one woman who's been 454 00:32:08,840 --> 00:32:12,800 Speaker 1: a part of the diaspora for all her life. She 455 00:32:12,880 --> 00:32:15,160 Speaker 1: came to this country. I think seventh. She got to 456 00:32:15,200 --> 00:32:19,080 Speaker 1: this country seven years after the revolution, and I heard 457 00:32:19,080 --> 00:32:24,200 Speaker 1: her talking about what her mother had told her life 458 00:32:24,280 --> 00:32:28,400 Speaker 1: was like under the Shaw, that it wasn't perfect, that 459 00:32:28,520 --> 00:32:32,280 Speaker 1: he did some bad things, but yet they had a 460 00:32:33,200 --> 00:32:37,960 Speaker 1: They had a modern life, well educated, a thriving economy. 461 00:32:38,720 --> 00:32:43,760 Speaker 1: Their allies was were members of Western civilization. They knew 462 00:32:43,760 --> 00:32:46,520 Speaker 1: they could travel, they could grow, they could they could 463 00:32:46,560 --> 00:32:50,120 Speaker 1: become experts in whatever field they chose to become experts in. 464 00:32:50,120 --> 00:32:53,000 Speaker 1: They could get whatever kind of education they wanted. They 465 00:32:53,000 --> 00:32:56,440 Speaker 1: could travel freely, they could trade, they could engage in commerce, 466 00:32:56,440 --> 00:32:58,480 Speaker 1: they could own their businesses, They could do any number 467 00:32:58,480 --> 00:33:02,560 Speaker 1: of things. They had a freedom, maybe not to the 468 00:33:02,600 --> 00:33:06,680 Speaker 1: extent that we have in this country, but they had freedom, 469 00:33:06,800 --> 00:33:10,440 Speaker 1: albeit under a monarch, and not exactly the perfect monarch either. 470 00:33:10,960 --> 00:33:14,920 Speaker 1: He's not exactly laid by King Charles. And I think 471 00:33:15,000 --> 00:33:21,080 Speaker 1: that's the test that the exiled crown Prince is going 472 00:33:21,120 --> 00:33:24,800 Speaker 1: to have to pass. And so far, at least today 473 00:33:24,840 --> 00:33:28,600 Speaker 1: he's saying all the right things when he tells people 474 00:33:28,760 --> 00:33:33,600 Speaker 1: that this is our moment and that we have to 475 00:33:33,640 --> 00:33:38,000 Speaker 1: see this as a humanitarian intervention, and that he wanted 476 00:33:38,000 --> 00:33:40,960 Speaker 1: everybody to stay home for now, and that he would 477 00:33:40,960 --> 00:33:43,520 Speaker 1: announce the appropriate time to return to the streets for 478 00:33:43,600 --> 00:33:47,000 Speaker 1: final action, and that we are very close to final victory. 479 00:33:47,640 --> 00:33:51,160 Speaker 1: He's indicating to them there is at least somebody, and 480 00:33:51,200 --> 00:33:55,600 Speaker 1: he's made clear that he would be interim, that he 481 00:33:55,640 --> 00:33:58,520 Speaker 1: would come in and he would take power for an 482 00:33:58,560 --> 00:34:01,520 Speaker 1: intervening period of time, that he would hold free and 483 00:34:01,640 --> 00:34:05,520 Speaker 1: fair elections, he would let them slowly return back to democracy. 484 00:34:07,280 --> 00:34:10,920 Speaker 1: And I want to believe him. I want him to 485 00:34:11,000 --> 00:34:14,400 Speaker 1: have seen what happened to his father the shaw. I 486 00:34:14,400 --> 00:34:17,440 Speaker 1: want him to have, over the time that he's grown 487 00:34:17,520 --> 00:34:19,480 Speaker 1: up and lived most of his life in this country, 488 00:34:20,160 --> 00:34:24,320 Speaker 1: to realize how a republican form of government actually operates. 489 00:34:25,080 --> 00:34:27,080 Speaker 1: And so I want him to be able to organize 490 00:34:27,239 --> 00:34:30,640 Speaker 1: not just the people in country, but the diaspora also 491 00:34:30,760 --> 00:34:33,680 Speaker 1: all of those in Munich, in Los Angeles and Toronto, 492 00:34:33,760 --> 00:34:38,959 Speaker 1: all over the world who would go back because they've 493 00:34:38,960 --> 00:34:43,520 Speaker 1: got chemical engineering degrees, they've got law degrees, they've got 494 00:34:43,560 --> 00:34:48,720 Speaker 1: medical degrees, they have trades, they have businesses, they have entrepreneurship. 495 00:34:48,719 --> 00:34:52,400 Speaker 1: They want to do all of those things. This could 496 00:34:53,040 --> 00:34:56,680 Speaker 1: and I'm not trying to downplay the risks. The risks 497 00:34:56,680 --> 00:35:00,279 Speaker 1: are horrible. Yes, I know, I've already heard mentioned World 498 00:35:00,320 --> 00:35:02,799 Speaker 1: War three. Mike Ben's on X has already gone off 499 00:35:02,840 --> 00:35:04,600 Speaker 1: the d bin. Oh my gosh, we're own World War three. 500 00:35:04,960 --> 00:35:07,520 Speaker 1: And I've heard just the opposite that this is gonna 501 00:35:07,560 --> 00:35:09,879 Speaker 1: be perfect. Oh, this is gonna be short lived. It's 502 00:35:09,920 --> 00:35:12,160 Speaker 1: just gonna be maybe a week or two at the most, 503 00:35:12,440 --> 00:35:15,240 Speaker 1: and you know, the Crown Prince will return and everything 504 00:35:15,280 --> 00:35:17,200 Speaker 1: will be glorious and everything will be hunky dory. Well, 505 00:35:17,200 --> 00:35:20,960 Speaker 1: those are the two extremes. I'd be happy for anything 506 00:35:21,000 --> 00:35:23,600 Speaker 1: in between. It gets rid of the Mollahs and destroys 507 00:35:23,960 --> 00:35:28,799 Speaker 1: the Mollahs and the Islamic regime as the world's largest, 508 00:35:29,480 --> 00:35:36,920 Speaker 1: most prolific sponsor of terrorism around the world. And when 509 00:35:36,960 --> 00:35:40,200 Speaker 1: you think of the strategic moves, the chess moves, if 510 00:35:40,239 --> 00:35:45,880 Speaker 1: you will, that Trump undertook before we got to this point, 511 00:35:48,400 --> 00:35:51,600 Speaker 1: you got to give Trump credit. Maybe not for himself. 512 00:35:52,320 --> 00:35:55,360 Speaker 1: I'm sure he does have a strategic mind, being a businessman, 513 00:35:56,280 --> 00:35:59,560 Speaker 1: but he has put in place the kind of people 514 00:35:59,680 --> 00:36:04,040 Speaker 1: under him that thinks strategically, that think, if we make 515 00:36:04,239 --> 00:36:07,920 Speaker 1: if we move this pond, what happens over here to 516 00:36:08,000 --> 00:36:13,000 Speaker 1: this rook, If we move the Queen, hear what happens. 517 00:36:12,760 --> 00:36:21,120 Speaker 1: He's playing global strategic chess all the while watching our 518 00:36:21,160 --> 00:36:28,440 Speaker 1: two main adversaries, Russia and China, and he knows that ultimately, 519 00:36:29,040 --> 00:36:37,120 Speaker 1: particularly at this very moment, our most dangerous enemy is China. 520 00:36:37,440 --> 00:36:40,200 Speaker 1: And he's made the kind of moves that has made 521 00:36:40,320 --> 00:36:45,240 Speaker 1: Sijing Ping stop and pause. Chijing Ping realizes he's lost 522 00:36:45,239 --> 00:36:48,960 Speaker 1: his lifeline of cheap energy, and so he's going to 523 00:36:49,000 --> 00:36:52,640 Speaker 1: be reticent to do anything. Now. All we have to 524 00:36:52,640 --> 00:36:56,440 Speaker 1: do is just wait and watch. Hang tight. I'll be 525 00:36:56,520 --> 00:37:00,640 Speaker 1: right back on eight