1 00:00:05,720 --> 00:00:09,280 Speaker 1: Tonight some hidden risks of letting the tax tail wag 2 00:00:09,360 --> 00:00:10,760 Speaker 1: the doult In speak. 3 00:00:10,560 --> 00:00:12,760 Speaker 2: When it comes to making investment decisions. 4 00:00:13,200 --> 00:00:15,680 Speaker 1: You're listening to Simply Money pres by all Worth Financial. 5 00:00:15,720 --> 00:00:18,079 Speaker 1: I'm Bob sponseller along with Brian James. 6 00:00:18,880 --> 00:00:19,119 Speaker 2: Well. 7 00:00:19,200 --> 00:00:22,400 Speaker 1: Taxes are top of mind for almost everyone right now. 8 00:00:22,520 --> 00:00:26,320 Speaker 1: The IRS just announced that filing season opens on January 9 00:00:26,400 --> 00:00:28,400 Speaker 1: twenty six. Brian, I know we got a lot of 10 00:00:28,400 --> 00:00:31,560 Speaker 1: clients that can't wait to get that turbo tax thing filed. 11 00:00:31,560 --> 00:00:35,479 Speaker 1: They're already collecting and monitoring their spreadsheets as we speak. 12 00:00:35,560 --> 00:00:39,279 Speaker 1: So January twenty six is the big day. And on 13 00:00:39,360 --> 00:00:41,919 Speaker 1: top of the normal tax filing and everything we do 14 00:00:42,000 --> 00:00:46,440 Speaker 1: every year, Americans are facing a slightly changed tax code 15 00:00:46,479 --> 00:00:49,479 Speaker 1: shaped by the one big beautiful bill that was passed 16 00:00:49,479 --> 00:00:52,519 Speaker 1: in twenty twenty five, and some folks are saying this 17 00:00:52,600 --> 00:00:57,640 Speaker 1: could possibly mean noticeably higher tax refunds for many. But 18 00:00:57,760 --> 00:01:00,800 Speaker 1: this moment also raises a bigger question, and that's what 19 00:01:00,840 --> 00:01:04,200 Speaker 1: we want to get into tonight. Our tax is dominating 20 00:01:04,319 --> 00:01:07,560 Speaker 1: the way we all make investment decisions, Brian, and I 21 00:01:07,560 --> 00:01:10,200 Speaker 1: think for a lot of us the answer is yes. 22 00:01:10,200 --> 00:01:11,200 Speaker 2: Oh absolutely it is. 23 00:01:11,400 --> 00:01:13,480 Speaker 3: And I think it's because taxes can be the boogeyman 24 00:01:13,560 --> 00:01:16,600 Speaker 3: Bob because people don't really know exactly the mechanics of 25 00:01:16,640 --> 00:01:19,480 Speaker 3: how they work and how they're different. Accounts are affected 26 00:01:19,520 --> 00:01:21,959 Speaker 3: by it, and it's always something we've been raised to 27 00:01:21,959 --> 00:01:24,440 Speaker 3: believe you should try to avoid at any and all costs, 28 00:01:24,600 --> 00:01:27,280 Speaker 3: and that really causes people to literally do nothing for 29 00:01:27,360 --> 00:01:29,679 Speaker 3: years and years and years because of the absolute terror 30 00:01:29,959 --> 00:01:32,319 Speaker 3: they have over what the irs might do if they 31 00:01:32,319 --> 00:01:35,160 Speaker 3: simply sell this one piece of something that they've had 32 00:01:35,160 --> 00:01:37,160 Speaker 3: for a long time. You and I actually had a 33 00:01:37,200 --> 00:01:40,160 Speaker 3: meeting yesterday with somebody where we were super terrified of 34 00:01:40,200 --> 00:01:42,199 Speaker 3: this one annuity that they have but has a bunch 35 00:01:42,200 --> 00:01:44,560 Speaker 3: of game built up into it. But as we explained it, 36 00:01:44,560 --> 00:01:46,800 Speaker 3: it's really no different to pull money out of that 37 00:01:46,840 --> 00:01:47,800 Speaker 3: thing than it was out of. 38 00:01:47,760 --> 00:01:49,680 Speaker 2: Their pre tax ira that used to be there. Four 39 00:01:49,720 --> 00:01:51,000 Speaker 2: to one. Okay, it's no different. 40 00:01:51,200 --> 00:01:53,600 Speaker 3: But they've been absolutely terrified to touch it simply because 41 00:01:53,600 --> 00:01:55,440 Speaker 3: they didn't understand. All they knew is that taxes were 42 00:01:55,440 --> 00:01:58,000 Speaker 3: hanging over their head. Of course, that happens. Everybody's got 43 00:01:58,000 --> 00:01:59,840 Speaker 3: that nobody's going to get away with, and there's no 44 00:02:00,160 --> 00:02:01,680 Speaker 3: to fill out a form or a piece of paper 45 00:02:01,720 --> 00:02:03,400 Speaker 3: or your tax are throw the right way where the 46 00:02:03,400 --> 00:02:05,440 Speaker 3: irs will say, oh, nope, you're getting off scott free. 47 00:02:05,440 --> 00:02:07,360 Speaker 3: You don't know any taxes. That's not how it works. 48 00:02:07,560 --> 00:02:09,560 Speaker 2: But a lot of people simply don't know that kind 49 00:02:09,560 --> 00:02:10,400 Speaker 2: of Well. 50 00:02:10,240 --> 00:02:12,520 Speaker 1: The good thing about that meeting you and I had yesterday, 51 00:02:12,560 --> 00:02:16,040 Speaker 1: and I sat there and watched you explain this thoroughly 52 00:02:16,120 --> 00:02:18,400 Speaker 1: to this lady who had actually she and her husband 53 00:02:18,400 --> 00:02:21,360 Speaker 1: and walked in the door. She had some very specific 54 00:02:21,400 --> 00:02:24,320 Speaker 1: things she wanted to talk about in terms of, you know, 55 00:02:24,440 --> 00:02:26,200 Speaker 1: remodeling their home, gifting to. 56 00:02:26,200 --> 00:02:27,040 Speaker 2: Kids, all that. 57 00:02:27,240 --> 00:02:30,960 Speaker 1: And as I watched you just explain how this really works, 58 00:02:31,440 --> 00:02:35,760 Speaker 1: and more importantly aligned it aligned the whole discussion along 59 00:02:35,800 --> 00:02:38,840 Speaker 1: the lines of their actual financial goals, not just worried 60 00:02:38,880 --> 00:02:40,040 Speaker 1: about their tax return. 61 00:02:40,440 --> 00:02:42,760 Speaker 2: I could see the temperature come down in the room. 62 00:02:42,840 --> 00:02:45,399 Speaker 1: She was a much more relaxed and walked out very 63 00:02:45,480 --> 00:02:49,119 Speaker 1: comfortable with the strategy. Uh. And it's not like you're 64 00:02:49,160 --> 00:02:51,720 Speaker 1: gonna We're gonna blow out of this asset and really 65 00:02:51,760 --> 00:02:54,000 Speaker 1: blow up their tax return. But you know, I think 66 00:02:54,040 --> 00:02:55,919 Speaker 1: the point you were making, and it was a great one, 67 00:02:56,000 --> 00:02:58,600 Speaker 1: is hey, it's okay to use some of this money. 68 00:02:58,680 --> 00:03:02,160 Speaker 2: Yeah, your own dollars yes, I googled it. You're allowed. 69 00:03:03,240 --> 00:03:05,960 Speaker 1: Another thing, you know, Brian, that that I know you 70 00:03:06,040 --> 00:03:08,040 Speaker 1: and I both run across a lot of times is 71 00:03:08,120 --> 00:03:12,720 Speaker 1: people have assets, individual stocks in particular that they've owned 72 00:03:12,800 --> 00:03:17,200 Speaker 1: maybe for ten, twenty fifteen years, and they have huge gains, 73 00:03:17,280 --> 00:03:19,400 Speaker 1: especially some of these big cap tech stocks. And I 74 00:03:19,440 --> 00:03:21,840 Speaker 1: think a lot of people just love to look at 75 00:03:21,880 --> 00:03:25,160 Speaker 1: that spreadsheet and see that, you know, three hundred and 76 00:03:25,160 --> 00:03:28,240 Speaker 1: fifty six percent gain, and just in their heart and 77 00:03:28,320 --> 00:03:30,440 Speaker 1: mind they say, yep, that's one of my winners. 78 00:03:30,760 --> 00:03:32,600 Speaker 2: No way, and you know what, we're going. 79 00:03:32,560 --> 00:03:35,080 Speaker 1: To touch that because I want to stare at that 80 00:03:35,120 --> 00:03:37,040 Speaker 1: three hundred and fifty six percent return. 81 00:03:37,720 --> 00:03:40,800 Speaker 3: And when you that sounds like a very specific example, well. 82 00:03:40,680 --> 00:03:41,720 Speaker 2: I'm throwing out an a. 83 00:03:42,400 --> 00:03:44,880 Speaker 1: But when you pull up a stock chart and take 84 00:03:44,920 --> 00:03:47,880 Speaker 1: a look at how that particular stock that, yeah, I 85 00:03:47,920 --> 00:03:50,320 Speaker 1: am thinking of a specifical answer, how. 86 00:03:50,280 --> 00:03:53,240 Speaker 2: Its performed over the last one or two years. The 87 00:03:53,280 --> 00:03:55,960 Speaker 2: stock's actually down. It's not performed well. 88 00:03:56,040 --> 00:03:58,680 Speaker 1: It has underperformed the market, which as we all know, 89 00:03:58,800 --> 00:04:02,920 Speaker 1: has been going game bus. Yet you know, this client 90 00:04:03,000 --> 00:04:05,720 Speaker 1: had no idea that was going on, nor did they care, 91 00:04:05,880 --> 00:04:08,880 Speaker 1: because they're just fixated on that twenty year return there, 92 00:04:08,920 --> 00:04:09,680 Speaker 1: and I'm going to guess. 93 00:04:09,520 --> 00:04:11,920 Speaker 3: They're probably hung up on the well, A, it's done 94 00:04:11,920 --> 00:04:13,920 Speaker 3: so well, I shouldn't ever give it up. And B 95 00:04:14,320 --> 00:04:15,960 Speaker 3: I don't really know what the taxes are going to be. 96 00:04:15,960 --> 00:04:17,279 Speaker 3: I just know there's going to be a lot of them. 97 00:04:17,400 --> 00:04:19,080 Speaker 3: So and a lot of people get in. And those 98 00:04:19,080 --> 00:04:22,040 Speaker 3: are the exact words I got back. This one's done well. 99 00:04:22,120 --> 00:04:24,800 Speaker 3: I'm never giving it up. Yeah, those are the exact words. 100 00:04:24,800 --> 00:04:27,279 Speaker 3: And my response when that comes up with my clients, Bob, 101 00:04:27,400 --> 00:04:29,320 Speaker 3: is Okay, then we can't count it as an asset 102 00:04:29,600 --> 00:04:31,480 Speaker 3: if it's something, if it's a piece of artwork you're 103 00:04:31,480 --> 00:04:32,880 Speaker 3: going to hang on the wall and stare at, then 104 00:04:32,920 --> 00:04:35,599 Speaker 3: it cannot help you financially. Guess what, you're poor. We 105 00:04:35,720 --> 00:04:38,120 Speaker 3: have to be some That doesn't mean blow out of 106 00:04:38,120 --> 00:04:40,040 Speaker 3: the whole thing. But if you are terrified of these 107 00:04:40,040 --> 00:04:42,200 Speaker 3: things and you're never willing to touch it, then it's 108 00:04:42,240 --> 00:04:43,120 Speaker 3: not an asset for you. 109 00:04:43,120 --> 00:04:43,919 Speaker 2: You have to get past that. 110 00:04:43,960 --> 00:04:46,000 Speaker 3: If you really want to pretend you know that this 111 00:04:46,160 --> 00:04:48,000 Speaker 3: is something you don't need, well. 112 00:04:47,839 --> 00:04:50,640 Speaker 1: This is probably a good time to mention some strategies 113 00:04:50,720 --> 00:04:54,039 Speaker 1: for situations like this, where you know, once we have 114 00:04:54,120 --> 00:04:58,719 Speaker 1: the discussion and somebody realizes, yeah, I probably should rebalance 115 00:04:58,800 --> 00:05:03,040 Speaker 1: or at least protect that position, that stock position, and 116 00:05:03,160 --> 00:05:04,960 Speaker 1: I and I don't want to pay the taxes, but 117 00:05:05,000 --> 00:05:07,640 Speaker 1: I also don't want it to fall by fifty percent, 118 00:05:08,000 --> 00:05:10,520 Speaker 1: you know, if and when we get another severe correction. 119 00:05:11,000 --> 00:05:13,320 Speaker 1: Some things that we do for people, you know, a 120 00:05:13,320 --> 00:05:15,200 Speaker 1: couple of things that come to mind. You can take 121 00:05:15,240 --> 00:05:18,680 Speaker 1: that stock and drop it in to a tax loss 122 00:05:18,720 --> 00:05:22,760 Speaker 1: harvest you know, direct indexing strategy where some short term 123 00:05:22,800 --> 00:05:26,840 Speaker 1: gains are being harvested in the background while we have 124 00:05:26,960 --> 00:05:30,839 Speaker 1: periods of volatility, and that allows the portfolio managers to 125 00:05:30,920 --> 00:05:35,159 Speaker 1: kind of, you know, lightly trim that position over time 126 00:05:35,520 --> 00:05:39,080 Speaker 1: with no capital gains exposure because we have some losses 127 00:05:39,120 --> 00:05:42,800 Speaker 1: to offset it. Another more, you know, slightly more sophisticated 128 00:05:42,839 --> 00:05:46,039 Speaker 1: strategy is you could put some collar protection around it. 129 00:05:46,080 --> 00:05:48,120 Speaker 1: You know, you sell it out out of the money call, 130 00:05:48,440 --> 00:05:51,520 Speaker 1: which helps pay for insurance, to buy a put option 131 00:05:51,680 --> 00:05:54,640 Speaker 1: on that stock. You know, you're not selling the stock, 132 00:05:54,680 --> 00:05:57,640 Speaker 1: but if it falls in value, the value of your 133 00:05:57,680 --> 00:06:00,479 Speaker 1: put option goes up, and you've protected the value of 134 00:06:00,520 --> 00:06:01,800 Speaker 1: that position in portfolio. 135 00:06:01,800 --> 00:06:02,520 Speaker 2: And that move. 136 00:06:02,400 --> 00:06:05,760 Speaker 3: Protects you from the whims of any one individual company 137 00:06:05,800 --> 00:06:08,240 Speaker 3: because anything can do anything at any given time. Just 138 00:06:08,279 --> 00:06:10,599 Speaker 3: ask Procter and Gamble people what happened when Dirk Yager 139 00:06:10,720 --> 00:06:12,320 Speaker 3: was named CEO twenty five years ago. 140 00:06:12,400 --> 00:06:13,120 Speaker 2: Didn't go so well. 141 00:06:13,279 --> 00:06:17,159 Speaker 3: Great company, but they hit a bad period there and yeah, 142 00:06:17,200 --> 00:06:21,359 Speaker 3: so the I think the concern here is not so 143 00:06:21,440 --> 00:06:23,520 Speaker 3: much the risk of any one company. It's just the 144 00:06:23,560 --> 00:06:25,480 Speaker 3: idea that if you're going to have this much of 145 00:06:25,520 --> 00:06:28,080 Speaker 3: your assets tied up into one stock, you're no longer 146 00:06:28,120 --> 00:06:30,640 Speaker 3: worried about the market, or you're what's my balance my 147 00:06:30,640 --> 00:06:31,880 Speaker 3: asset allocated portfolio. 148 00:06:31,920 --> 00:06:33,479 Speaker 2: Well, if you've got eighty percent tied up in a 149 00:06:33,480 --> 00:06:35,760 Speaker 2: couple of tech stocks, you don't care about the overall market. 150 00:06:35,800 --> 00:06:37,880 Speaker 3: You better be on those conference calls, listening to what 151 00:06:37,920 --> 00:06:40,200 Speaker 3: those people are talking about and reading every word that 152 00:06:40,240 --> 00:06:42,119 Speaker 3: the analysts have to say. If that is your current 153 00:06:42,120 --> 00:06:45,200 Speaker 3: financial plan, because it does not relate to the overall economy, 154 00:06:45,320 --> 00:06:46,839 Speaker 3: it relates to a handful of companies. 155 00:06:46,839 --> 00:06:48,920 Speaker 2: If you're not going to protect otherwise, all. 156 00:06:48,880 --> 00:06:51,120 Speaker 1: Right, well, getting away from just that one or two 157 00:06:51,240 --> 00:06:54,960 Speaker 1: concentrated stock situation. You know, in general, folks are just 158 00:06:55,040 --> 00:06:59,640 Speaker 1: looking for some smart, you know, proactive tax planning because 159 00:06:59,640 --> 00:07:02,320 Speaker 1: as we talk about all the time, Brian, and this 160 00:07:02,440 --> 00:07:09,240 Speaker 1: is no knock on CPAs or tax professionals, but generally speaking, they. 161 00:07:08,600 --> 00:07:10,360 Speaker 2: Are in a reactive mode. 162 00:07:10,120 --> 00:07:13,120 Speaker 1: They take in all your information that you get in 163 00:07:13,240 --> 00:07:16,880 Speaker 1: January and February, they plug it into tax software and 164 00:07:16,920 --> 00:07:19,280 Speaker 1: they tell you how much you owe in taxes. That's 165 00:07:19,400 --> 00:07:23,280 Speaker 1: tax preparation, that's not tax planning. There are a lot 166 00:07:23,320 --> 00:07:25,760 Speaker 1: of good CPAs, and we work with many of them 167 00:07:25,760 --> 00:07:28,560 Speaker 1: where we partner with them and our clients to get 168 00:07:28,600 --> 00:07:33,560 Speaker 1: into some actual proactive tax planning, dovetailing that with a 169 00:07:33,680 --> 00:07:38,160 Speaker 1: client's investment strategy and cash flow and retirement planning strategy. 170 00:07:38,360 --> 00:07:40,080 Speaker 2: Brian walk us through some of the things that. 171 00:07:40,040 --> 00:07:42,560 Speaker 1: We do that really do add value to a client 172 00:07:42,680 --> 00:07:44,600 Speaker 1: situation regardless of. 173 00:07:44,520 --> 00:07:46,640 Speaker 3: What the market does. I like the way you put that, Bob. 174 00:07:46,720 --> 00:07:49,320 Speaker 3: A tax prep is very different from tax planning. This 175 00:07:49,520 --> 00:07:52,680 Speaker 3: is tax prep season, right. Tax planning will be what 176 00:07:52,720 --> 00:07:54,880 Speaker 3: you want to do after tax prep, so that do 177 00:07:54,920 --> 00:07:57,440 Speaker 3: you ensure that whatever you just went through doesn't happen again? 178 00:07:57,480 --> 00:07:59,440 Speaker 3: What can I be doing through the balance of twenty 179 00:07:59,480 --> 00:08:01,520 Speaker 3: twenty six so that they don't get the outcome that 180 00:08:01,560 --> 00:08:02,640 Speaker 3: I didn't particularly like. 181 00:08:02,560 --> 00:08:04,800 Speaker 2: From twenty twenty five. That's planning ahead. Now. 182 00:08:05,000 --> 00:08:07,000 Speaker 3: Don't go to your CPA right now and say hey, 183 00:08:07,080 --> 00:08:08,960 Speaker 3: let's do some tax planning. They're going to say, nope, 184 00:08:08,960 --> 00:08:10,760 Speaker 3: we'll talk about that in May because they're about to 185 00:08:10,840 --> 00:08:13,560 Speaker 3: enter their extremely busy season. But what are we talking 186 00:08:13,600 --> 00:08:16,520 Speaker 3: about here, well, tax planning, and we already hinted it at. 187 00:08:16,560 --> 00:08:19,320 Speaker 3: One of these things is, first off, tax loss harvesting. 188 00:08:19,480 --> 00:08:21,360 Speaker 3: And yes, we did talk about this all through the 189 00:08:21,400 --> 00:08:23,560 Speaker 3: fourth quarter. It's a little early in the year to 190 00:08:23,560 --> 00:08:25,920 Speaker 3: worry about tax loss harvesting for twenty six because we're 191 00:08:25,920 --> 00:08:28,760 Speaker 3: two weeks in. But tax loss harvesting basically means paying 192 00:08:28,760 --> 00:08:31,480 Speaker 3: attention to the individual holdings you have and using the 193 00:08:31,520 --> 00:08:33,480 Speaker 3: ones that may not be sitting at a game position. 194 00:08:33,520 --> 00:08:36,040 Speaker 3: Maybe they're sitting at a loss position. Sell them because 195 00:08:36,040 --> 00:08:39,080 Speaker 3: you get to take a deduction or offsets some other 196 00:08:39,120 --> 00:08:41,840 Speaker 3: gain you may have elsewhere in your situation. Another one 197 00:08:41,920 --> 00:08:44,480 Speaker 3: is roth conversions and the timing of your income. So 198 00:08:44,520 --> 00:08:46,960 Speaker 3: if you have lower income years, and this often happens 199 00:08:47,000 --> 00:08:50,560 Speaker 3: immediately after somebody retires, if you've got a decent nest 200 00:08:50,600 --> 00:08:52,760 Speaker 3: egg built up, you may be able to retire and 201 00:08:52,840 --> 00:08:55,720 Speaker 3: literally not generate any income you're not working. Maybe you 202 00:08:55,760 --> 00:08:58,960 Speaker 3: haven't turned on your Social Security or your pensions spigots yet, 203 00:08:59,120 --> 00:09:01,280 Speaker 3: you're just spending down assets. That's going to be the 204 00:09:01,320 --> 00:09:03,800 Speaker 3: lowest tax bracket you've seen in years. I do not 205 00:09:04,000 --> 00:09:06,480 Speaker 3: personally believe that it's a good idea to celebrate. A 206 00:09:06,520 --> 00:09:07,959 Speaker 3: lot of people come in and they'll say, I'm I'm 207 00:09:08,000 --> 00:09:10,320 Speaker 3: only paying eight percent taxes this year, and I'm going, 208 00:09:10,320 --> 00:09:10,880 Speaker 3: what are you doing? 209 00:09:10,960 --> 00:09:11,839 Speaker 2: Why would you do that? 210 00:09:11,880 --> 00:09:14,640 Speaker 3: You know, pay fifteen and convert some stuff to ROTH 211 00:09:15,000 --> 00:09:16,360 Speaker 3: take advantage of the opportunity. 212 00:09:16,400 --> 00:09:18,520 Speaker 2: That's some money to keep from paying a thirty two 213 00:09:18,559 --> 00:09:20,320 Speaker 2: percent bracket in six years. 214 00:09:20,240 --> 00:09:22,960 Speaker 3: Exactly because when you're seventy three or seventy five, depending 215 00:09:22,960 --> 00:09:25,600 Speaker 3: on when you were born, r MD season hits required 216 00:09:25,640 --> 00:09:28,760 Speaker 3: minimum distributions. Now you're permanently in a higher bracket because 217 00:09:28,760 --> 00:09:31,560 Speaker 3: of those pre tax assets. So don't ignore the opportunity 218 00:09:31,760 --> 00:09:32,640 Speaker 3: of that income time. 219 00:09:33,200 --> 00:09:35,480 Speaker 1: Well, you mentioned the tax loss harvesting, and I'm going 220 00:09:35,559 --> 00:09:37,560 Speaker 1: to harken back again to that meeting you and I 221 00:09:37,640 --> 00:09:38,960 Speaker 1: did together yesterday. 222 00:09:39,000 --> 00:09:41,200 Speaker 2: Oh we're hearkening today, are we? We are harketing? You 223 00:09:41,240 --> 00:09:43,960 Speaker 2: got this sosaurce out this. I'm using my three syllable words. 224 00:09:45,000 --> 00:09:48,959 Speaker 1: But the client walked in and one of their questions was, Hey, 225 00:09:49,280 --> 00:09:53,199 Speaker 1: we've got this tax smart investing thing on our account, 226 00:09:53,320 --> 00:09:56,840 Speaker 1: can you give us evidence that this is actually working? 227 00:09:57,320 --> 00:09:59,640 Speaker 1: And I wanted to make two points, and we made 228 00:09:59,640 --> 00:10:02,640 Speaker 1: them yes yesterday in that meeting. Number One, A lot 229 00:10:02,679 --> 00:10:05,680 Speaker 1: of times people have a hard time behaviorally, if they're 230 00:10:05,720 --> 00:10:08,560 Speaker 1: managing this stuff on their own, from ever taking a loss, 231 00:10:08,679 --> 00:10:12,240 Speaker 1: because by hitting that button in that sell button and 232 00:10:12,280 --> 00:10:15,880 Speaker 1: taking the loss, you're kind of admitting defeat. And especially men, 233 00:10:15,960 --> 00:10:18,120 Speaker 1: we don't like to do that. Our ego gets wrapped 234 00:10:18,160 --> 00:10:21,040 Speaker 1: up a little stubborn. When you've got an algorithm or 235 00:10:21,040 --> 00:10:23,920 Speaker 1: a strategy or a portfolio management team working in the 236 00:10:23,960 --> 00:10:28,000 Speaker 1: background with all emotion removed, they can do that very easily, 237 00:10:28,120 --> 00:10:30,000 Speaker 1: keep the portfolio fully invested. 238 00:10:30,480 --> 00:10:31,880 Speaker 2: And you know, for this. 239 00:10:31,760 --> 00:10:35,120 Speaker 1: Particular client and a lot of our clients last year, 240 00:10:35,600 --> 00:10:39,520 Speaker 1: you know, very balanced portfolio. They were up seventeen eighteen percent, 241 00:10:40,000 --> 00:10:42,319 Speaker 1: and we were able to show them the tax bill 242 00:10:42,360 --> 00:10:45,880 Speaker 1: you're going to get next month is about five hundred 243 00:10:45,880 --> 00:10:48,199 Speaker 1: dollars in taxable gain and they're like, yep. 244 00:10:48,000 --> 00:10:49,920 Speaker 2: I got it, thank you. Now, what kind of makes sense. 245 00:10:49,800 --> 00:10:51,720 Speaker 1: That they would never have been able to do that 246 00:10:52,040 --> 00:10:54,959 Speaker 1: or wanted to do it on their own, but having 247 00:10:54,960 --> 00:10:57,240 Speaker 1: these plans in place right now makes a huge difference. 248 00:10:57,240 --> 00:10:59,439 Speaker 3: And that's because of not only the emotional component, but 249 00:10:59,440 --> 00:11:02,160 Speaker 3: it's also that takes some pretty heavy duty analytical stuff 250 00:11:02,200 --> 00:11:04,319 Speaker 3: because you have to dig deep into the portfolio, into 251 00:11:04,360 --> 00:11:06,680 Speaker 3: each and every tax lot holding of each and every 252 00:11:06,679 --> 00:11:10,040 Speaker 3: position that you have to find those opportunities, and then 253 00:11:10,080 --> 00:11:12,079 Speaker 3: then you layer on that emotional component of I don't 254 00:11:12,120 --> 00:11:13,880 Speaker 3: want to sell this. It has lost money. I can't 255 00:11:13,920 --> 00:11:14,400 Speaker 3: stand that. 256 00:11:14,640 --> 00:11:14,840 Speaker 2: Well. 257 00:11:15,280 --> 00:11:19,080 Speaker 3: The most comfortable people with their financial plans realize that 258 00:11:19,200 --> 00:11:21,200 Speaker 3: sometimes it rains and it's okay to just jump in 259 00:11:21,200 --> 00:11:23,400 Speaker 3: the puddles and deal with the situation at hand, take 260 00:11:23,440 --> 00:11:25,160 Speaker 3: the loss and the opportunity. 261 00:11:24,640 --> 00:11:28,720 Speaker 1: That provides another opportunity that you always comes up at 262 00:11:28,720 --> 00:11:29,440 Speaker 1: the end of the year. 263 00:11:29,520 --> 00:11:31,520 Speaker 2: So I'm going to talk about it in January. 264 00:11:31,559 --> 00:11:33,760 Speaker 1: Hopefully people that are aged seventy and a half and 265 00:11:33,880 --> 00:11:36,560 Speaker 1: over are listening to this, and it's for folks that 266 00:11:36,679 --> 00:11:40,679 Speaker 1: do regular charitable giving. Please use your IRA r M 267 00:11:40,800 --> 00:11:44,040 Speaker 1: D amount to do some of that. Talk to your 268 00:11:44,080 --> 00:11:48,040 Speaker 1: advisor now and help coordinate a strategy have that happen 269 00:11:48,120 --> 00:11:52,320 Speaker 1: throughout the year. It's a very tax advantage strategy to 270 00:11:52,400 --> 00:11:55,880 Speaker 1: use instead of writing a check, dropping that cash and 271 00:11:55,920 --> 00:11:59,360 Speaker 1: the offering plate. Not enough people are taking advantage of that. 272 00:11:59,400 --> 00:12:01,480 Speaker 1: It's called a qualified charitable distribution. 273 00:12:01,640 --> 00:12:05,920 Speaker 3: You have qualified charitable distributions. Also, donor advised funds, appreciated securities. 274 00:12:05,960 --> 00:12:08,920 Speaker 3: These are all keywords you should understand before you ever 275 00:12:08,960 --> 00:12:11,040 Speaker 3: write a check to a charity. There are much more 276 00:12:11,080 --> 00:12:13,920 Speaker 3: tax efficient ways to benefit the charity the exact same way. 277 00:12:13,960 --> 00:12:17,200 Speaker 1: Help yourself and help the charity. Here's the all Worth advice. Remember, 278 00:12:17,200 --> 00:12:20,920 Speaker 1: the most successful investors aren't the ones who minimize every 279 00:12:21,000 --> 00:12:25,320 Speaker 1: tax bill. They're the ones who make coordinated, intentional decisions 280 00:12:25,360 --> 00:12:30,000 Speaker 1: that compound into long term after tax strength and growth. 281 00:12:30,600 --> 00:12:33,600 Speaker 1: Coming up next, something a group of billionaires had in 282 00:12:33,640 --> 00:12:35,120 Speaker 1: common in twenty twenty. 283 00:12:34,840 --> 00:12:38,400 Speaker 2: Five that should serve as a lesson for all of us. 284 00:12:38,720 --> 00:12:41,240 Speaker 1: You're listening to Simply Money presented by all Worth Financial 285 00:12:41,280 --> 00:12:43,720 Speaker 1: on fifty five KRC, the talk station. 286 00:12:49,120 --> 00:12:50,319 Speaker 2: You're listening to Simply. 287 00:12:50,080 --> 00:12:53,400 Speaker 1: Money presented by all Worth Financial on Bob Sponsorer along. 288 00:12:53,120 --> 00:12:54,280 Speaker 2: With Brian James. 289 00:12:54,559 --> 00:12:57,000 Speaker 1: If you can't listen to Simply Money live every night, 290 00:12:57,080 --> 00:13:00,120 Speaker 1: subscribe and get our daily podcasts. And if you think 291 00:13:00,160 --> 00:13:03,240 Speaker 1: your friends or family could use some financial advice. Well 292 00:13:03,360 --> 00:13:05,560 Speaker 1: let them know about us as well. Just search simply 293 00:13:05,600 --> 00:13:10,520 Speaker 1: money on the iHeart app or wherever you find your podcast. Well, 294 00:13:11,520 --> 00:13:14,880 Speaker 1: twenty twenty five proves something yet again that tends to 295 00:13:14,920 --> 00:13:18,439 Speaker 1: happen every single year, Brian. No matter how much money 296 00:13:18,440 --> 00:13:21,760 Speaker 1: you have, how many experts you hire, or how many 297 00:13:21,840 --> 00:13:25,840 Speaker 1: screens are on your trading desk, you still cannot predict 298 00:13:25,920 --> 00:13:29,200 Speaker 1: the direction of the stock market. And twenty twenty five 299 00:13:29,360 --> 00:13:31,720 Speaker 1: was no different. We've got some actual data to back 300 00:13:31,760 --> 00:13:32,160 Speaker 1: that up. 301 00:13:32,280 --> 00:13:35,080 Speaker 3: Yeah, so this is data coming from Forbes magazine. They 302 00:13:35,120 --> 00:13:37,880 Speaker 3: pulled thirty four billionaires at the beginning of last year. 303 00:13:37,960 --> 00:13:41,640 Speaker 3: That kind of surprises me. Billionaires are taking magazine questionnaires. 304 00:13:41,679 --> 00:13:44,440 Speaker 3: But whatsever whatever, that's what We're simply restating what we 305 00:13:44,480 --> 00:13:47,040 Speaker 3: see out there in the media. So big name investors. 306 00:13:47,080 --> 00:13:50,000 Speaker 3: It includes real estate, tycoons, headfund managers, a little bit 307 00:13:50,000 --> 00:13:52,360 Speaker 3: of everything. And with a simple question, what do you 308 00:13:52,480 --> 00:13:54,680 Speaker 3: think the S and P five hundred will return in 309 00:13:54,679 --> 00:13:57,320 Speaker 3: twenty twenty five? Well, how did these smart people with 310 00:13:57,400 --> 00:14:00,360 Speaker 3: gigantic piles of money do thirty five Some of them 311 00:14:00,400 --> 00:14:02,120 Speaker 3: thought the market was going to be down, somebody as 312 00:14:02,160 --> 00:14:05,200 Speaker 3: much as twenty percent, another thirty five percent, we're looking 313 00:14:05,240 --> 00:14:07,920 Speaker 3: only for single digit gains. Only seven out of thirty 314 00:14:07,960 --> 00:14:10,000 Speaker 3: four or you know, one out of five twenty percent 315 00:14:10,280 --> 00:14:12,160 Speaker 3: correctly guessed that the market was going to be up 316 00:14:12,160 --> 00:14:14,679 Speaker 3: between ten and twenty percent. So the point of this, right, 317 00:14:14,679 --> 00:14:16,720 Speaker 3: these are people who did something right somewhere along the way, 318 00:14:16,760 --> 00:14:20,040 Speaker 3: because now they are billionaires with a B. But most 319 00:14:20,040 --> 00:14:22,520 Speaker 3: of them either underestimated the market or we're just flat 320 00:14:22,520 --> 00:14:26,520 Speaker 3: out negative and pessimistic. Not super surprising. That's actually pretty telling, Bob, 321 00:14:26,560 --> 00:14:30,320 Speaker 3: because this level investor, with everything that they have, it 322 00:14:30,400 --> 00:14:32,640 Speaker 3: gets it wrong most of the time. So what hope 323 00:14:32,640 --> 00:14:34,280 Speaker 3: do the rest of us have at guessing at it? 324 00:14:35,120 --> 00:14:36,360 Speaker 2: Well, not much hope at all. 325 00:14:36,480 --> 00:14:39,520 Speaker 1: I've got a couple thoughts on why these billionaires are 326 00:14:39,560 --> 00:14:42,000 Speaker 1: so far off, and Brian, we run into that not 327 00:14:42,080 --> 00:14:46,040 Speaker 1: with billionaires, but with people that own businesses or very 328 00:14:46,080 --> 00:14:50,560 Speaker 1: focused in leadership in a specific industry, whether they're doctors 329 00:14:50,760 --> 00:14:53,480 Speaker 1: or you know, owners of closely held businesses or what 330 00:14:53,600 --> 00:14:56,640 Speaker 1: have you, high level executives. A lot of these folks 331 00:14:56,640 --> 00:14:59,640 Speaker 1: are used to running things in a particular company or 332 00:14:59,680 --> 00:15:03,120 Speaker 1: business and they're very good at what they do, laser 333 00:15:03,160 --> 00:15:06,840 Speaker 1: focused on that particular company or industry, and they and 334 00:15:06,880 --> 00:15:09,360 Speaker 1: they got tunnel vision and that that's how you get 335 00:15:09,360 --> 00:15:12,440 Speaker 1: to be a billionaire as you stay focused, diligent, and 336 00:15:12,480 --> 00:15:15,360 Speaker 1: you get after it year after year, but you don't 337 00:15:15,360 --> 00:15:19,560 Speaker 1: have a real broad view of the overall economy sometimes, 338 00:15:19,560 --> 00:15:21,760 Speaker 1: and and you and I run into this with you know, 339 00:15:21,800 --> 00:15:25,360 Speaker 1: with folks that are extremely intelligent, way smarter than you 340 00:15:25,400 --> 00:15:28,280 Speaker 1: and I would ever be, but they're they're very focused 341 00:15:28,280 --> 00:15:31,720 Speaker 1: on a specific company or industry and they kind of 342 00:15:31,760 --> 00:15:34,440 Speaker 1: can't see the forest for the trees sometimes when making 343 00:15:34,480 --> 00:15:38,480 Speaker 1: these kind of bold predictions. And yeah, it's just very interesting. 344 00:15:38,480 --> 00:15:43,040 Speaker 1: It goes back into behavior, you know, investment or financial behavior. 345 00:15:43,360 --> 00:15:44,600 Speaker 2: We're all prone to it. 346 00:15:44,640 --> 00:15:48,200 Speaker 1: We all have presuppositions and biases that we you know, 347 00:15:48,240 --> 00:15:50,400 Speaker 1: we we carry around with us all day every day. 348 00:15:50,480 --> 00:15:51,280 Speaker 2: Yeah, that's exactly right. 349 00:15:51,320 --> 00:15:53,400 Speaker 3: And so so let's go through some of these individual 350 00:15:53,440 --> 00:15:54,880 Speaker 3: people who got it right, who got it wrong, and 351 00:15:54,920 --> 00:15:56,880 Speaker 3: what's their background here. So one of the interesting names 352 00:15:56,920 --> 00:15:59,200 Speaker 3: on here is real estate mogul Larry Connor. 353 00:15:59,240 --> 00:16:01,000 Speaker 2: He's interesting to me because he's local. 354 00:16:01,240 --> 00:16:03,960 Speaker 3: If you're ever up in the South Dayton area, you'll 355 00:16:03,960 --> 00:16:06,320 Speaker 3: see buildings under the Connor group. Well, he's a pretty 356 00:16:06,320 --> 00:16:10,320 Speaker 3: successful real estate investor, and he was right on the 357 00:16:10,760 --> 00:16:13,520 Speaker 3: predictions for the market last year. And some other folks, 358 00:16:14,160 --> 00:16:17,080 Speaker 3: David Hoffman, who's also buying the Pittsburgh Penguins, he got 359 00:16:17,120 --> 00:16:19,880 Speaker 3: it right on the wrong end of this a Florida homebuilder. 360 00:16:20,360 --> 00:16:24,000 Speaker 1: Imagine that we have a good gear and have enough money, 361 00:16:24,160 --> 00:16:27,080 Speaker 1: you know, take my investment gains for twenty twenty five, 362 00:16:27,160 --> 00:16:27,760 Speaker 1: and hey, go. 363 00:16:27,680 --> 00:16:29,960 Speaker 3: Buy an NHL tea yup, stop, buy loaf of bread, 364 00:16:29,960 --> 00:16:32,320 Speaker 3: bottle of milk, stick of butter, and an NHL team 365 00:16:32,360 --> 00:16:33,200 Speaker 3: on the way home from work. 366 00:16:33,240 --> 00:16:34,800 Speaker 2: You know, that's how we do this. Well, let's talk 367 00:16:34,800 --> 00:16:36,440 Speaker 2: about how Let's talk about the big firms, right. 368 00:16:36,440 --> 00:16:38,560 Speaker 3: We listened to a lot of the big financial institutions 369 00:16:38,560 --> 00:16:40,520 Speaker 3: because they have a pretty loud megaphone when it comes 370 00:16:40,520 --> 00:16:42,880 Speaker 3: to their opinions. Bank of America was looking for a 371 00:16:42,920 --> 00:16:46,240 Speaker 3: ten percent return, Goldman and Morgan Stanley were predicting about 372 00:16:46,240 --> 00:16:50,040 Speaker 3: seven and a half percent. Vanguard tends to be pretty socialist, 373 00:16:50,120 --> 00:16:53,160 Speaker 3: if you will, democratic, and surveyed the public and got 374 00:16:53,200 --> 00:16:56,240 Speaker 3: six point four percent back. Everybody, all of those big 375 00:16:56,280 --> 00:16:59,080 Speaker 3: institutions were under the actual sixteen percent return that we 376 00:16:59,080 --> 00:17:00,000 Speaker 3: got in twenty twenty five. 377 00:17:00,400 --> 00:17:03,160 Speaker 1: Those estimates from the big firms, and I'm not knocking them. 378 00:17:03,160 --> 00:17:07,680 Speaker 1: They're they're being responsible. But Brian, every year their prediction 379 00:17:08,000 --> 00:17:10,400 Speaker 1: is somewhere between seven and ten percent. 380 00:17:11,000 --> 00:17:11,720 Speaker 2: Why is that. 381 00:17:12,080 --> 00:17:14,560 Speaker 1: It's because over the last they every ninety years, that's 382 00:17:14,600 --> 00:17:15,520 Speaker 1: what the market does. 383 00:17:15,560 --> 00:17:17,360 Speaker 2: So they're just being responsible. 384 00:17:17,400 --> 00:17:20,440 Speaker 1: I mean, shoot, they if Goldman came out and said 385 00:17:20,440 --> 00:17:22,680 Speaker 1: I think the market's going to be down seventeen or 386 00:17:22,800 --> 00:17:23,720 Speaker 1: up thirty. 387 00:17:23,359 --> 00:17:25,720 Speaker 2: Four this year, they'd lose a lot of respect in 388 00:17:25,760 --> 00:17:26,160 Speaker 2: a hurry. 389 00:17:26,200 --> 00:17:28,200 Speaker 3: So I don't knock these firms now, No, not at all. 390 00:17:28,280 --> 00:17:30,480 Speaker 1: They got to put a number out there because these 391 00:17:30,520 --> 00:17:33,439 Speaker 1: media folks are sticking a microphone in their face and 392 00:17:33,680 --> 00:17:35,120 Speaker 1: during the first week of January. 393 00:17:35,320 --> 00:17:37,840 Speaker 3: If you're listening to this thinking we're bashing individuals or 394 00:17:37,840 --> 00:17:40,360 Speaker 3: financial institutions for not knowing what the market is doing, 395 00:17:40,400 --> 00:17:41,760 Speaker 3: then you're not listening closely enough. 396 00:17:41,800 --> 00:17:44,240 Speaker 2: Our point is you cannot know. Nobody knows. 397 00:17:44,359 --> 00:17:46,520 Speaker 3: These are some of the smartest brains in the world 398 00:17:46,560 --> 00:17:49,080 Speaker 3: thinking about finances, and they're all over the map in 399 00:17:49,160 --> 00:17:51,280 Speaker 3: terms of what they think is coming and versus what 400 00:17:51,359 --> 00:17:52,040 Speaker 3: actually happens. 401 00:17:52,600 --> 00:17:54,960 Speaker 1: Yeah, let's talk about what some of the big winners 402 00:17:55,000 --> 00:17:58,359 Speaker 1: are stockwise, and these are stocks we've mentioned throughout the 403 00:17:58,400 --> 00:18:00,919 Speaker 1: past year, and the video was up thirty nine percent 404 00:18:01,040 --> 00:18:04,120 Speaker 1: last year, Pallenteer was up one hundred and thirty five percent, 405 00:18:04,680 --> 00:18:07,920 Speaker 1: robin Hood up two hundred percent, and XP was up 406 00:18:08,000 --> 00:18:12,720 Speaker 1: thirty eight percent. Only two of these picks went down Tannebell, 407 00:18:12,920 --> 00:18:17,800 Speaker 1: a beverage company in Indonesia, and the I Shares Bitcoin 408 00:18:17,920 --> 00:18:20,520 Speaker 1: Trust ETF was down on the year as well. A 409 00:18:20,560 --> 00:18:22,919 Speaker 1: lot of people thought bitcoin was going to go to 410 00:18:22,960 --> 00:18:25,800 Speaker 1: the moon last year. And if you over allocated to 411 00:18:25,840 --> 00:18:29,080 Speaker 1: that asset class, just like any other asset class, you know, 412 00:18:29,160 --> 00:18:31,119 Speaker 1: you're sticking your nose out there and you better be 413 00:18:31,240 --> 00:18:33,360 Speaker 1: right or you're going to be disappointed if things don't 414 00:18:33,359 --> 00:18:33,800 Speaker 1: go your way. 415 00:18:33,880 --> 00:18:36,640 Speaker 3: Yep, those picks came from that same Forbes survey where 416 00:18:36,680 --> 00:18:39,360 Speaker 3: they also Forbes also asked these individual billionaires for one 417 00:18:39,400 --> 00:18:42,199 Speaker 3: recommendation each what's something you would buy? And of the 418 00:18:42,240 --> 00:18:44,960 Speaker 3: eighteen stocks named, only two of them lost value in 419 00:18:45,000 --> 00:18:48,240 Speaker 3: twenty twenty five that Bob just mentioned. So yeah, it's 420 00:18:48,280 --> 00:18:50,480 Speaker 3: interesting to say, you know, these people probably don't really 421 00:18:50,520 --> 00:18:53,480 Speaker 3: even think about individual securities. They didn't make their billions 422 00:18:53,480 --> 00:18:55,960 Speaker 3: of dollars by playing the market. They're doing other things 423 00:18:55,960 --> 00:18:56,920 Speaker 3: in various industries. 424 00:18:57,119 --> 00:18:59,520 Speaker 1: Yeah, they're not buying the Uh, they're not buying the 425 00:18:59,640 --> 00:19:01,520 Speaker 1: XP why and dollar cost averaging? 426 00:19:01,640 --> 00:19:03,920 Speaker 3: Yeah, they don't think about much about their four o 427 00:19:03,960 --> 00:19:06,640 Speaker 3: one ks very often so for the rest of us mortals. 428 00:19:06,680 --> 00:19:09,000 Speaker 2: If we're not gonna make a prediction for the market, 429 00:19:09,040 --> 00:19:11,600 Speaker 2: what should we be doing? Brian? As we enter twenty 430 00:19:11,640 --> 00:19:13,560 Speaker 2: twenty six, don't screw it up? Right. 431 00:19:13,880 --> 00:19:16,160 Speaker 3: The rules for twenty six is the same as they've 432 00:19:16,200 --> 00:19:19,280 Speaker 3: been forever. Don't make a mess of your credit, save 433 00:19:19,400 --> 00:19:22,360 Speaker 3: more than you spend, and don't panic when the market wabbles. 434 00:19:22,400 --> 00:19:24,240 Speaker 3: Do that for thirty years, and you will have some 435 00:19:24,400 --> 00:19:26,000 Speaker 3: problems similar to these billionaires. 436 00:19:26,320 --> 00:19:28,159 Speaker 1: Or as one of these billionaires put it, if we 437 00:19:28,200 --> 00:19:32,200 Speaker 1: could perfectly predict the stock market, we wouldn't be billionaires, 438 00:19:32,320 --> 00:19:36,040 Speaker 1: we'd be trillionaires. Here's the world that would be right, 439 00:19:36,119 --> 00:19:37,959 Speaker 1: It would be great. Here's the all Worth advice. If 440 00:19:38,000 --> 00:19:41,080 Speaker 1: billionaires can't call the market, you shouldn't try either. Build 441 00:19:41,080 --> 00:19:43,800 Speaker 1: a plan that works no matter what the market does 442 00:19:43,840 --> 00:19:47,520 Speaker 1: from year to year. Thanks for listening tonight. Xavier basketball 443 00:19:47,720 --> 00:19:50,400 Speaker 1: is coming at you. Next go Musketeers. 444 00:19:50,440 --> 00:19:50,960 Speaker 2: Get it done. 445 00:19:51,000 --> 00:19:53,879 Speaker 1: Tonight, you've been listening to simply money presented by all 446 00:19:53,920 --> 00:19:55,800 Speaker 1: Worth Financial on fifty five KRC. 447 00:19:56,240 --> 00:19:57,200 Speaker 2: The talk station