WEBVTT - 11-19-25 America's Truckin' Network 0:00:04.680 --> 0:00:07.480 This is America's Trucking Network with Kevin Gordon. 0:00:09.520 --> 0:00:13.560 Welcomeable, thanks for tuning in on this Wednesday morning. Coming 0:00:13.640 --> 0:00:15.440 up in the second segment, we're going to be speaking 0:00:15.480 --> 0:00:19.840 with Phil Flynn, senior account executive the Price Futures Group, 0:00:20.320 --> 0:00:23.160 author of the Energy Report and contribute to Fox Businesses 0:00:23.200 --> 0:00:26.400 and a good friend of the show and a good 0:00:26.400 --> 0:00:28.920 friend of mine here on America's struck A Network, So 0:00:29.000 --> 0:00:32.280 looking forward to talking to him coming up. But first, 0:00:32.880 --> 0:00:37.040 last week we had the US weekly jobless claims and 0:00:37.479 --> 0:00:40.480 again because of the government shut down, this is coming 0:00:40.520 --> 0:00:44.920 from groups and other companies other than the Bureau of 0:00:44.960 --> 0:00:48.720 Labor Statistics, a number of Americans filing new applications for 0:00:48.800 --> 0:00:54.560 unemployment benefits eased slightly last week. Haver Analytics estimated on Thursday, 0:00:54.680 --> 0:01:01.520 pointing to stable labor market conditions. Stable labor market conditions 0:01:01.880 --> 0:01:04.520 despite all the crap that we're hearing in the spoon 0:01:04.560 --> 0:01:08.560 fed regurgitators in the mainstream media, lion Jerry Powell and 0:01:08.640 --> 0:01:12.440 the Fed talking about weakness and the job market and 0:01:12.440 --> 0:01:16.320 so on. The stable job market is the key here 0:01:16.640 --> 0:01:19.280 that could provide the Federal reserve cover to keep interest 0:01:19.360 --> 0:01:23.440 rates unchanged next month. If they care about the economy, 0:01:23.520 --> 0:01:26.319 which of course they don't. You would think that lion 0:01:26.440 --> 0:01:28.679 Jerry Powell, based on some of the information we're going 0:01:28.760 --> 0:01:31.920 to have coming up in other stories, would be interested 0:01:31.920 --> 0:01:34.600 in lowing the interest rates to spark the economy, to 0:01:34.680 --> 0:01:39.000 keep the economy going. But I believe that Jerry Powell 0:01:39.240 --> 0:01:44.280 has a political motive. It is not independent as everybody 0:01:44.319 --> 0:01:47.480 claims that it is. I think he's got a grudge 0:01:47.640 --> 0:01:51.160 against Trump. Maybe he is in over his head, maybe 0:01:51.200 --> 0:01:54.880 he's not as bright as everybody thought he was. But 0:01:54.960 --> 0:01:58.200 he certainly is not the right person for this particular job. 0:01:58.520 --> 0:02:01.640 Longest government shut down in his street ended on Wednesday night, 0:02:01.680 --> 0:02:04.880 and the Labor Department is likely to resume publication of 0:02:04.960 --> 0:02:08.880 the job as Claims Report next Thursday, which is coming up. 0:02:09.120 --> 0:02:12.280 The forty three days shut down halted collection, processing, and 0:02:12.320 --> 0:02:17.680 publishing of official economic data, yet States kept collecting the 0:02:17.919 --> 0:02:23.639 claims data, which here analytics and Wall Street economists have extrapolated. 0:02:23.880 --> 0:02:27.400 Now over the last several weeks, we've had JP Morgan Chase, 0:02:27.720 --> 0:02:32.880 We've had City Group, we've had Nationwide, and we've had 0:02:32.919 --> 0:02:37.240 Goldman Sachs reporting on these, and Analytics has. 0:02:37.120 --> 0:02:39.120 Come along and also done the same. 0:02:39.440 --> 0:02:43.600 So we've got these reports, these unemployment numbers are being 0:02:44.040 --> 0:02:48.160 loaded into the federal system which is available to everybody 0:02:48.280 --> 0:02:51.680 or to these companies, and so they have been going 0:02:51.720 --> 0:02:55.720 into that database extrapolating the data, any of the data 0:02:55.720 --> 0:02:59.480 that's missing, like in this particular case, claims data were 0:02:59.560 --> 0:03:03.200 unavailed for Massachusetts and the assumptions were made similar to 0:03:03.240 --> 0:03:04.760 the Labor Department's practices. 0:03:05.120 --> 0:03:06.119 So they've been doing. 0:03:05.919 --> 0:03:09.520 This as opposed to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and 0:03:09.680 --> 0:03:12.880 I would wonder why, and maybe this is an opportunity 0:03:13.120 --> 0:03:16.600 that if this data is being uploaded into a system 0:03:16.880 --> 0:03:20.400 that is overseen by the federal government, we don't need 0:03:20.440 --> 0:03:23.920 to have those bureaucrats crunch those numbers and come up 0:03:23.960 --> 0:03:28.959 with the report. These companies like Hare Analytics, JP, Morgan Chase, 0:03:29.560 --> 0:03:32.480 Goldman Sachs can do the same, and it would be 0:03:32.600 --> 0:03:35.920 interesting to see their comparisons and to see what they 0:03:35.960 --> 0:03:39.560 come up with based on the data and the information 0:03:39.680 --> 0:03:43.360 available to make sure that Okay, when you've got competition, 0:03:43.720 --> 0:03:48.040 when you've got information coming out, if there's competition for that, 0:03:48.440 --> 0:03:51.160 it sharpens everybody's tools and they want to be the 0:03:51.280 --> 0:03:54.360 accurate one. They want to be the one that everybody 0:03:54.680 --> 0:03:57.480 relies on, and so it might add a little bit 0:03:57.520 --> 0:04:00.480 of competition and be a little bit better too, for 0:04:00.520 --> 0:04:02.800 these other companies to handle rather than The Bureau of 0:04:02.840 --> 0:04:06.600 Labor Statistics initial claims for state unemployment benefits to dip 0:04:06.640 --> 0:04:09.760 to a seasonally adjusted two hundred and twenty seven thousand 0:04:10.520 --> 0:04:14.200 for the weekending November the eighth, down from two hundred 0:04:14.200 --> 0:04:16.440 and twenty eight thousand almost two hundred and twenty nine 0:04:16.480 --> 0:04:20.280 thousand the previous week. So again, we're talking about a 0:04:20.320 --> 0:04:23.280 stable labor market. We're talking about a market that has 0:04:23.279 --> 0:04:27.240 been fluctuating or has it been working within. The unemployment 0:04:27.360 --> 0:04:30.200 rate has been running anywhere between the two hundred and 0:04:30.200 --> 0:04:33.480 ten thousand and two hundred and fifty thousand range that 0:04:33.720 --> 0:04:36.640 has been over the last several months and up to 0:04:36.680 --> 0:04:39.479 a couple of years even, and so as long as 0:04:39.520 --> 0:04:43.120 that number was in with that is within that range, 0:04:43.320 --> 0:04:46.240 that should indicate that, yes, there is a strong labor 0:04:46.279 --> 0:04:48.760 market out there. There's been a lot of talk about 0:04:48.760 --> 0:04:51.520 the fact that we are in a no hire, no 0:04:51.680 --> 0:04:55.560 fire situation, and that is pretty much held true. Even 0:04:55.600 --> 0:04:57.920 though we've seen some of these announcements that have come 0:04:57.960 --> 0:05:01.040 out of potential layoffs. 0:05:01.880 --> 0:05:02.240 What is it? 0:05:02.360 --> 0:05:07.240 Challenger Gray and Christmas a couple of weeks ago put 0:05:07.279 --> 0:05:08.840 out a report that said, oh, there were going to 0:05:08.880 --> 0:05:12.800 be these massive layoffs. Well, those may be in the offings, 0:05:12.839 --> 0:05:15.440 but they're not current, and they may be into the 0:05:15.480 --> 0:05:18.560 future and layered in a little bit here, a little 0:05:18.560 --> 0:05:20.840 bit there, and a little bit over time, so that 0:05:20.960 --> 0:05:23.640 unemployment rate won't be affected by that and the market 0:05:23.720 --> 0:05:24.600 will stay stable. 0:05:25.520 --> 0:05:26.359 The initial job is. 0:05:26.360 --> 0:05:29.880 Claims, let me see a beal Reinhardt is an economists 0:05:29.920 --> 0:05:34.279 with JP Morgan, and initial claims remain pretty similar to 0:05:34.360 --> 0:05:37.560 recent years around this time and don't give the sense 0:05:37.600 --> 0:05:41.240 of any alarming rise in layoffs, especially when you consider 0:05:41.520 --> 0:05:44.760 that they may have been lifted slightly by the government shutdown, 0:05:45.080 --> 0:05:49.960 which was starting to become more disruptive this month. Labor 0:05:50.000 --> 0:05:53.040 market remains in a holding pattern. Some privates that will 0:05:53.040 --> 0:05:56.920 get this. Some private sector reports have implied the labor 0:05:56.960 --> 0:06:02.160 market was deteriorating. One must have cautioned that these reports 0:06:02.440 --> 0:06:07.839 had had a poor track record of accuracy and suggested 0:06:08.000 --> 0:06:12.000 instead focusing on weekly jobless claims. While the government is 0:06:12.040 --> 0:06:16.880 expected to publish September's delayed unemployment report next week, and 0:06:17.839 --> 0:06:20.960 this story was from last week, so that will be 0:06:21.040 --> 0:06:24.040 reported next week. It could be months before the clear 0:06:24.160 --> 0:06:27.960 view of the labor market emerges. Why why should it 0:06:28.000 --> 0:06:30.760 take it could be months before the clear view of 0:06:30.800 --> 0:06:34.720 the labor market emerges. We've got the data from the 0:06:34.760 --> 0:06:38.080 first moment. We've got from January. If you're talking about 0:06:38.080 --> 0:06:41.160 the current calendar year, you've got January all the way 0:06:41.279 --> 0:06:46.120 up now through November. And when the Jobless Reports initial 0:06:46.200 --> 0:06:48.520 jobless claims comes out at the end of this week 0:06:48.560 --> 0:06:52.760 on Thursday, we'll have that. So where is this disruption? 0:06:52.960 --> 0:06:56.160 Where is this We won't know what the labor market is. 0:06:56.400 --> 0:06:58.279 We know what the labor market has been for the 0:06:58.360 --> 0:07:00.960 last eleven plus months, and we know what it was 0:07:01.120 --> 0:07:03.840 the year before, and we pretty much know what it's 0:07:03.839 --> 0:07:05.640 going to be like in the future given on what 0:07:05.680 --> 0:07:08.200 we're seeing as far as the economic trends. Now, if 0:07:08.200 --> 0:07:10.520 we could just get line Jerry Powell and the Fed 0:07:10.560 --> 0:07:13.040 to cut interest rates where they should be, we'd be 0:07:13.080 --> 0:07:15.520 in good shape and people could go out and invest, 0:07:15.600 --> 0:07:18.520 and people could build, expand their businesses and so on. 0:07:19.640 --> 0:07:20.400 Let's see here. 0:07:20.480 --> 0:07:27.200 Stephen Stanley, Chief US Economists that as Santandar Santandert Santander 0:07:27.840 --> 0:07:32.160 US capital markets. Not much has changed over the past 0:07:32.200 --> 0:07:35.360 six weeks. While this is not great news in the 0:07:35.440 --> 0:07:38.760 labor market was tap it at best bet the shutdown, 0:07:39.240 --> 0:07:42.720 it should help to allay the worst fears of policymakers 0:07:42.960 --> 0:07:48.280 and financial market participants alike, citing inflation worries and indication 0:07:48.400 --> 0:07:52.400 of relative labor market stability. More FED policy makers have 0:07:52.520 --> 0:07:59.200 signaled patients on further easing bs lower interest rates stimulate 0:07:59.280 --> 0:08:02.320 the economy. They mentioned that every time I pick up 0:08:02.320 --> 0:08:05.080 a report, or every time I look at the oil 0:08:05.160 --> 0:08:08.760 prices for the day and look at what they're fluctuating, 0:08:08.800 --> 0:08:11.640 and so on, every almost every day, there's something in 0:08:11.680 --> 0:08:14.600 there that talks about, well, you know, looking at anticipation 0:08:14.680 --> 0:08:16.960 what the Federal Reserve may do next month or next 0:08:16.960 --> 0:08:18.080 week or whenever. 0:08:17.760 --> 0:08:19.560 The Federal Reserve is supposed to be. 0:08:19.800 --> 0:08:22.240 There's a line in there that says lower interest rates 0:08:22.440 --> 0:08:26.360 lead leads to more consumption and boost to the economy. 0:08:26.480 --> 0:08:29.800 Aren't we interested in boosting the economy. Yes, we're concerned 0:08:29.840 --> 0:08:31.920 about inflation. But as I've been pointing out on this 0:08:32.000 --> 0:08:35.240 program for the last several weeks, when you look at 0:08:35.280 --> 0:08:39.200 the again going back to where the cost of living 0:08:39.280 --> 0:08:43.000 allowance that has been added to the Social Security checks 0:08:43.040 --> 0:08:46.800 over the last several years, decades even, and that number 0:08:47.000 --> 0:08:49.600 this year is a two point eight percent. And you 0:08:49.679 --> 0:08:53.120 look at that increase over the last several years, it's 0:08:53.200 --> 0:08:56.600 been around two point six two point seven, which tells 0:08:56.640 --> 0:09:00.040 you that the inflation rate, because it's tied to the 0:09:00.080 --> 0:09:03.280 inflation rate in the third quarter, that inflation has been 0:09:03.320 --> 0:09:06.320 around two point eight two point nine over the last 0:09:06.360 --> 0:09:09.640 several years. And the fact that our inflation rate right 0:09:09.720 --> 0:09:12.959 now is somewhere in the two point seven two point 0:09:13.040 --> 0:09:16.360 six range, because depending on what report you look at, 0:09:16.559 --> 0:09:18.600 we are heading in the right direction. I think it 0:09:18.679 --> 0:09:22.400 is is stupid on the federal reserves part to be 0:09:22.559 --> 0:09:29.720 targeting two percent when the historic average has been above 0:09:29.760 --> 0:09:32.679 two point five percent on a yearly basis. I mean, 0:09:32.720 --> 0:09:36.319 what are they expecting from the Trump administration miracles? Well, 0:09:36.320 --> 0:09:38.920 we've gotten several miracles from them, you know, eight wars 0:09:38.920 --> 0:09:41.800 stopped and so on. Coming up, We've got Phil Flynn 0:09:41.840 --> 0:09:44.120 coming up, so looking forward to speaking with him. I'm 0:09:44.200 --> 0:09:48.240 Kevin Gordon, America's Trucking Network seven hundred WLW. 0:09:49.679 --> 0:09:53.040 This is the Racing Report on America's Trucking Network on 0:09:53.240 --> 0:09:55.360 seven hundred WLW. 0:09:55.480 --> 0:09:58.480 Long considered drag racing's goat the greatest of all time, 0:09:58.600 --> 0:10:02.080 John Forest announced this reti Wireman after a record setting career. 0:10:02.240 --> 0:10:03.480 It's time for me to retire. 0:10:04.040 --> 0:10:06.839 And it all made sense to me, even though I 0:10:06.920 --> 0:10:09.840 knew I had medical stuff that I had to address 0:10:10.520 --> 0:10:12.760 that do I want to get back in the car 0:10:12.840 --> 0:10:16.360 and get it in the head and I don't. I've 0:10:16.360 --> 0:10:19.800 got new grand children coming with Courtney. She just had 0:10:19.800 --> 0:10:23.320 a little girl, and she's got two girls already, Harlan 0:10:23.360 --> 0:10:25.560 and Tinley, and. 0:10:26.600 --> 0:10:28.920 We have Autumn. Of course, we have Jacob and Noah. 0:10:29.440 --> 0:10:35.080 So I got a next generation that'll follow me just 0:10:35.160 --> 0:10:35.959 like my girls. 0:10:36.000 --> 0:10:39.880 Force has said NHRA records for season championships with sixteen 0:10:40.200 --> 0:10:42.920 an event wins with one hundred and fifty seven that 0:10:43.000 --> 0:10:46.040 will never likely be broken. He launched his career in 0:10:46.040 --> 0:10:49.079 the early nineteen seventies and hand me down cars, his 0:10:49.120 --> 0:10:53.280 first NHRI victory coming in Quebec, Canada in nineteen eighty seven. 0:10:53.559 --> 0:10:56.559 Force won nine of ten World Championships in the nineteen 0:10:56.640 --> 0:10:59.920 nineties and won a record thirteen of nineteen races, appearing 0:11:00.080 --> 0:11:03.480 in a record sixteen final rounds in nineteen ninety eight. 0:11:03.600 --> 0:11:05.480 Here's one of his daughter's Britney Force. 0:11:05.679 --> 0:11:09.199 His energy comes from where his heart's at, and it's 0:11:09.200 --> 0:11:11.600 in this sport. It's being out here at the racetrack. 0:11:11.640 --> 0:11:13.640 He loves it so much and you just see it. 0:11:13.840 --> 0:11:17.640 Four through and fellow NHR fundy car driver Ron Caps. 0:11:18.040 --> 0:11:21.079 He took everything that Snak and Mongoose and Big Daddy 0:11:21.080 --> 0:11:24.400 Dongars and Shirley Muldowney had built back in the day, 0:11:24.480 --> 0:11:26.440 the models we played with in the hot wheels, and 0:11:26.480 --> 0:11:30.240 he carried the sport and people. I just had a 0:11:30.280 --> 0:11:32.679 conversation a minute ago with somebody talking about Force and 0:11:32.720 --> 0:11:35.040 they felt like they were hanging out. 0:11:34.880 --> 0:11:35.640 With him when they watched. 0:11:35.679 --> 0:11:38.840 They sat back with a beer on TV watched John Force, 0:11:38.920 --> 0:11:41.680 and his interviews made them feel like they could just 0:11:41.720 --> 0:11:42.600 go hang out with him. 0:11:43.679 --> 0:11:47.080 This is the Raething report on America's Drugging Network on 0:11:47.240 --> 0:11:48.720 seven hundred WLW. 0:11:49.400 --> 0:11:53.480 Say Denas are reporting for a T N. 0:11:53.960 --> 0:11:56.079 Hay Sin Sannie's former Bengal and Pro Football Hall of 0:11:56.120 --> 0:11:58.800 Famer Anthony Munews. Are you or someone you know looking 0:11:58.800 --> 0:12:02.160 to gain valuable experience that positively impacts the community. The 0:12:02.160 --> 0:12:05.480 Anthony Munyas Foundation is currently seeking students from all academic 0:12:05.520 --> 0:12:08.960 disciplines to intern with the Foundation. Our interns are imperative 0:12:09.000 --> 0:12:11.280 to the success of our programs. We strive to give 0:12:11.360 --> 0:12:14.120 interns real world hands on experience and the opportunities to 0:12:14.120 --> 0:12:16.200 see your work make a real difference in the community. 0:12:16.320 --> 0:12:18.960 Visit Munas Foundation dot org or call five one three 0:12:19.000 --> 0:12:21.560 seven seven two forty nine hundred to learn more about 0:12:21.600 --> 0:12:23.800 the Foundation's internship opportunities. 0:12:24.240 --> 0:12:26.600 Why would a guy in financial services pick a fight 0:12:26.679 --> 0:12:35.599 with the financial industry because in many cases. 0:12:33.480 --> 0:12:38.520 I'm Kevin Gordon, americastruck at Network seven hundred WLW. Joining 0:12:38.559 --> 0:12:41.440 me is Phil Flynn, Senior account executive of the Price 0:12:41.559 --> 0:12:45.280 Futures Group, author of the Energy Report, contribute to Fox 0:12:45.360 --> 0:12:49.240 Business Network last Saturday in Fox Weather Channel as well, 0:12:49.320 --> 0:12:52.440 and my good friend and friend of ATN. Thanks for 0:12:52.520 --> 0:12:54.760 joining us this morning, Phil, I certainly appreciate it. 0:12:54.840 --> 0:12:56.960 It's great to be here. Thanks for giving me off 0:12:57.040 --> 0:12:59.400 the road to you know, sit there and focus here. 0:12:59.520 --> 0:13:00.640 Thank you. What's for having me? 0:13:00.800 --> 0:13:04.600 Yeah, that's my pleasure. We've been seeing some crazy energy prices. 0:13:04.600 --> 0:13:07.480 We've been seeing the oil fluctuations. I think if you 0:13:07.480 --> 0:13:11.280 look at since January twentieth, Oil West Texas are the 0:13:11.280 --> 0:13:14.880 two main components. West Texas intermedia crewed down twenty five percent, 0:13:15.200 --> 0:13:18.040 Brent crude down about twenty percent depending upon the day. 0:13:18.559 --> 0:13:22.199 We're not seeing that kind of reflected in the gas prices, 0:13:22.760 --> 0:13:27.120 and there's been some I guess geopolitical problems with that 0:13:27.360 --> 0:13:31.560 refinery issues. So kind of for the people that follow this, 0:13:31.920 --> 0:13:34.719 where why isn't the gas prices coming down the way 0:13:34.760 --> 0:13:35.680 we'd like them to be? 0:13:36.040 --> 0:13:38.120 You know, I think you're absolutely right. I mean, we 0:13:38.120 --> 0:13:41.680 should see lower gasoline prices. But even though we seem 0:13:41.720 --> 0:13:44.360 to have plenty of supply a crewed or at least 0:13:44.400 --> 0:13:47.360 what they keep telling us, when you look at the 0:13:47.400 --> 0:13:53.240 global situation for other fuels like diesel fuel and gasoline, 0:13:53.480 --> 0:13:56.760 supplies are not that ample. And we've been seeing warning 0:13:56.880 --> 0:14:01.680 signs in the market, and we look at refining margins 0:14:01.720 --> 0:14:04.959 and they're signaling to the market, Hey, don't get complacent 0:14:05.000 --> 0:14:08.280 about oil prices. We've got a problem Houston, and that 0:14:08.440 --> 0:14:12.800 Houston problem is with low supplies of diesel fuel. No 0:14:12.920 --> 0:14:16.920 diesel fuel in like chat fuel and diesel fuel and 0:14:17.000 --> 0:14:19.960 all of those type of fuels are in tight supplies, 0:14:20.440 --> 0:14:23.560 and that's keeping the market rather elevated as refiners have 0:14:23.640 --> 0:14:27.080 to focus on that, and that's keeping those gasoline prices 0:14:27.160 --> 0:14:27.840 high as well. 0:14:27.960 --> 0:14:29.960 And you've been focusing on your energy report. 0:14:30.080 --> 0:14:34.120 Kind of this push pull between the International Energy Agency 0:14:34.280 --> 0:14:36.920 and OPAK, there's been kind of this push pull. We're 0:14:36.920 --> 0:14:39.480 getting kind of different comments in terms of what we're 0:14:39.520 --> 0:14:41.080 going to have in terms of whether we're going to 0:14:41.120 --> 0:14:41.440 have an. 0:14:41.320 --> 0:14:44.520 Oil glut and oil shortage. It's kind of weird, it 0:14:44.600 --> 0:14:45.160 really is. 0:14:45.240 --> 0:14:47.560 They're going after each other. It's kind it's kind of 0:14:47.560 --> 0:14:50.120 funny to watch, right, I mean, you know, it's kind 0:14:50.120 --> 0:14:52.400 of like one of these words. You know, you hate 0:14:52.440 --> 0:14:55.800 card tells, but you're kind of rooting for Opeck on 0:14:55.880 --> 0:14:59.000 this one because they seem to be talking common sense 0:14:59.760 --> 0:15:02.200 where they're saying, hey, you know, when we look at 0:15:02.200 --> 0:15:05.880 the supply and demand situation, we believe there's going to 0:15:06.160 --> 0:15:09.240 be a continuing need for fossil fuels in the future. 0:15:10.240 --> 0:15:13.720 And this talk of a glot that the International Energy 0:15:13.760 --> 0:15:16.440 Agency is trying to sell us not as dangerous, right, 0:15:16.920 --> 0:15:21.560 They're worried that they the International Energy Agency, or we 0:15:21.800 --> 0:15:25.880 like to call it the International Climate Unism Agency. You know, 0:15:25.920 --> 0:15:29.800 it's more interesting, you know, pushing a green energy agenda 0:15:29.920 --> 0:15:33.400 as they are to you know, focusing on energy security, 0:15:33.480 --> 0:15:38.480 which by the way, is their mission, right, energy security 0:15:38.600 --> 0:15:41.560 for consuming nations in Europe and around the world. But 0:15:41.640 --> 0:15:44.120 they've lost that mission, you know, they seem that they 0:15:44.280 --> 0:15:47.120 see their mission now is to push green energy. They're 0:15:47.160 --> 0:15:49.520 telling us, you know, a few years ago, oh, we're 0:15:49.560 --> 0:15:53.200 going to stop needing oil, stop investing in fossil fuels, 0:15:53.240 --> 0:15:56.680 We're going to meet our climate targets. Stop. Today they 0:15:56.760 --> 0:15:58.600 backed off of that, right, they have to keep pushing 0:15:58.600 --> 0:16:01.320 them back. Oh yeah, we were wrong about the world 0:16:01.400 --> 0:16:05.040 not you know, oil demand stopping going to higher, It's 0:16:05.080 --> 0:16:07.160 going to continue to go higher, further and further out. 0:16:07.560 --> 0:16:10.200 And the ope's like, yeah, no kidding, you know, that's 0:16:10.240 --> 0:16:13.000 common sense. Look at the demand for you know, fuels 0:16:13.000 --> 0:16:15.160 around the globe that goes up every year, you know, 0:16:15.400 --> 0:16:19.840 the increasing demand from artificial intelligence. So yeah, so there 0:16:19.960 --> 0:16:23.720 is basically a showdown. In fact, the discrepancy right now 0:16:23.800 --> 0:16:27.720 is the largest probably in history. I mean, the difference 0:16:27.760 --> 0:16:30.840 between what they see on demand is about one point 0:16:30.960 --> 0:16:34.040 eight million barrels a day. You know, that's that's like 0:16:34.080 --> 0:16:39.120 the entire oil production of France, right you know, it's 0:16:39.320 --> 0:16:42.920 it's pretty pretty big discrepancy and it's having an impact 0:16:43.000 --> 0:16:44.400 on prices, and which. 0:16:44.200 --> 0:16:49.880 Is funny Phil Flynn, my guest, the fact that the 0:16:49.920 --> 0:16:53.760 International Energy Agency, who we would think in terms of 0:16:53.920 --> 0:16:57.160 energy would be focused on energy, went off on this 0:16:57.280 --> 0:17:01.400 green new deal, green new steel tangent and said, you know, 0:17:01.440 --> 0:17:03.480 we're going to focus on that, and now all of 0:17:03.520 --> 0:17:05.639 a sudden they kind of come back one to eighty 0:17:05.680 --> 0:17:08.760 and said, okay, well, you know, telling everybody to stop 0:17:08.760 --> 0:17:12.840 investment in fossil fuels and which I hate its natural resource, 0:17:13.080 --> 0:17:16.359 so telling them not to invest in that, Now all 0:17:16.400 --> 0:17:19.080 of a sudden people took them out their words, stopped investing, 0:17:19.119 --> 0:17:20.760 and this is going to lead us a little bit, 0:17:21.160 --> 0:17:22.000 going to lead us a. 0:17:21.920 --> 0:17:23.400 Lot short in terms of production. 0:17:23.960 --> 0:17:26.520 And now they're going out and saying that they're the 0:17:26.520 --> 0:17:29.080 ones that are now talking about an oil glut, whereas 0:17:29.280 --> 0:17:33.080 OPEK is being more reasonable and saying, nah, not so much. 0:17:33.520 --> 0:17:36.080 So it's kind of like they can't figure out which 0:17:36.119 --> 0:17:36.840 way they're going. 0:17:37.000 --> 0:17:39.399 No, they can't, and you know, it makes you wonder 0:17:39.520 --> 0:17:42.000 why they'd be predicting this glut. The glut, by the 0:17:42.000 --> 0:17:44.960 way that they're talking about is even bigger than when 0:17:44.960 --> 0:17:49.160 we shut down the entire autonomy right during COVID, which 0:17:49.400 --> 0:17:52.680 doesn't seem to make sense on any level at all. 0:17:52.920 --> 0:17:56.320 Right in OPEK is like no, And even though OPEK, 0:17:56.600 --> 0:18:00.520 you know, they were actually predicting last month of supply 0:18:00.720 --> 0:18:03.440 deficit in the globe and they OPEC did back off 0:18:03.480 --> 0:18:05.400 of that a little bit there. Now they're gone from 0:18:05.400 --> 0:18:09.440 a slow deficit to a slight surplus. But that surplus 0:18:09.520 --> 0:18:13.040 is so small that you know, if if Kevin spoil 0:18:13.080 --> 0:18:15.360 a little gas at the gas tank, you know you're 0:18:15.400 --> 0:18:18.400 going to offset that bamplet, right, So that's how great 0:18:18.760 --> 0:18:22.000 height it is, you know, and you know I wouldn't 0:18:22.080 --> 0:18:24.359 you know, normally this wouldn't be that big a deal, 0:18:24.440 --> 0:18:30.720 but people, industry investors make decisions based off these reports. 0:18:30.840 --> 0:18:35.320 Right in the markets moved based on these reports. And 0:18:35.440 --> 0:18:39.480 what concerns me is that these false reports put in 0:18:40.200 --> 0:18:42.879 overconfidence in the market that everything's going to be okay. 0:18:43.280 --> 0:18:46.720 You know, even though we're seeing the crackspread screaming, hey boy, 0:18:46.800 --> 0:18:49.920 we got tight supplies here. Oh gasoline, We've got tight 0:18:50.000 --> 0:18:53.120 supplies here. You know, while they're screaming that right at 0:18:53.119 --> 0:18:56.200 the end of the day, what we're seeing here from 0:18:56.320 --> 0:19:01.440 the actual uh marketplace. You know, oil prices have been very, 0:19:01.640 --> 0:19:05.960 very complacent, So that complacency can bite us because let's 0:19:05.960 --> 0:19:08.680 say we get a real cold winter and we've got 0:19:08.720 --> 0:19:12.359 short diesel supplies, prices could spike up. We won't have 0:19:12.520 --> 0:19:16.200 the extra oil supplies because prices are artificially low, and 0:19:16.560 --> 0:19:18.680 that's one of the I think it's a real danger 0:19:18.720 --> 0:19:19.680 going into this winter. 0:19:20.200 --> 0:19:20.680 Exactly. 0:19:21.200 --> 0:19:23.920 My guess is Phil Flynn's senior account executive the Price 0:19:23.960 --> 0:19:26.359 Futures Group. I mean, it's not like we're talking small 0:19:26.400 --> 0:19:30.800 potatoes here, Phil is you know, energy crosses every business. 0:19:30.840 --> 0:19:33.080 I don't care whether you're an accountant, an attorney, whether 0:19:33.080 --> 0:19:36.880 you're in a manufacturing facility, or whether you're in any 0:19:36.960 --> 0:19:41.320 kind kind of business whatsoever. Energy is extremely important. You know, 0:19:41.359 --> 0:19:43.840 every time you flip on the lights, you're dealing with energy. 0:19:43.920 --> 0:19:45.520 So energy is a large. 0:19:45.320 --> 0:19:47.800 Component component of the of the home. 0:19:47.600 --> 0:19:52.280 Budget, the factory budget, the business budget, all across the way. 0:19:52.440 --> 0:19:54.879 And so if we're having problems in the energy sector, 0:19:55.119 --> 0:19:57.320 that's going to affect business. It's going to affect the 0:19:57.320 --> 0:19:59.920 bottom line, and it's going to affect your kitchen table budget. 0:20:00.119 --> 0:20:03.120 So it is, and I'll tell you this. That's one 0:20:03.119 --> 0:20:04.960 of the things I hear from people all the time, 0:20:05.280 --> 0:20:08.159 you know, when they see me in Fox Business or 0:20:08.320 --> 0:20:10.280 Fox Weather, and they see me in the street and 0:20:10.280 --> 0:20:12.440 the work. They're always come up through what's can happen 0:20:12.520 --> 0:20:16.880 with gasoline prices because it matters so much because their 0:20:16.960 --> 0:20:19.520 life revolves around that, right, you know how much money 0:20:19.520 --> 0:20:21.600 they're going to have, and some of up that, you know, 0:20:21.840 --> 0:20:24.520 suv driving the kids to school every day. Once that 0:20:24.680 --> 0:20:27.119 gets very expensive, that takes a big bite out of 0:20:27.160 --> 0:20:28.919 everybody's budget, exactly. 0:20:29.000 --> 0:20:32.480 And it's something that has not gotten a lot of attention. 0:20:32.760 --> 0:20:35.879 And we've had well in this country. We've gotten away 0:20:35.920 --> 0:20:41.439 from focusing on oil refining and gasoline refining to the 0:20:41.440 --> 0:20:44.280 point where as we've said in the past that there 0:20:44.280 --> 0:20:46.520 hasn't been a new refinery built in this country since 0:20:46.600 --> 0:20:51.280 nineteen forty seven, and we're dealing with basically a limited 0:20:51.400 --> 0:20:55.000 amount of refining capability. But they are working at about 0:20:55.000 --> 0:20:59.240 what is it about ninety five percent capacity, which most businesses, 0:20:59.320 --> 0:21:01.960 I don't know how many many people can many businesses 0:21:02.040 --> 0:21:04.680 can operate at ninety five percent capacity for a long 0:21:04.720 --> 0:21:05.400 period of time. 0:21:05.760 --> 0:21:08.720 No, they haven't, you know, And they've been refining maintenance. 0:21:08.760 --> 0:21:11.439 I mean, if you look at refining capacity, they've been 0:21:11.480 --> 0:21:14.760 running at those high rates for a long period of time, 0:21:15.040 --> 0:21:17.399 and that means there's not a lot of room for 0:21:17.520 --> 0:21:19.800 marchants of error. And then of course you look around 0:21:19.800 --> 0:21:22.320 the globe. The refining capacity in Russia has been taking 0:21:22.359 --> 0:21:25.240 a big hit, right because Ukraine has been hitting their 0:21:25.520 --> 0:21:29.600 oil infrastructure. And while that kind of pushed prices of 0:21:29.600 --> 0:21:31.960 oil down a little bit because Russia is trying to 0:21:32.040 --> 0:21:39.000 dump their oil, it hurt the global inventory of heavy 0:21:39.000 --> 0:21:41.439 oil when distill its that Russia likes to make. So 0:21:41.760 --> 0:21:45.320 you have this perfect storm of these predictions from the 0:21:45.359 --> 0:21:49.440 international energy agencies, but the realistic tightness of supply on 0:21:49.520 --> 0:21:52.280 the ground. Something's got to give, right. You can't have 0:21:52.359 --> 0:21:55.520 it both ways. You can have you know, rocketing diesel 0:21:55.560 --> 0:21:59.800 prices and falling crude prices forever. Right, something's going to 0:21:59.840 --> 0:22:02.119 get but either the economy is going to collapse or 0:22:02.600 --> 0:22:05.120