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Speaker 1: Chuck Ingram, fifty five KRFC the Talk Station. Hey twenty

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Speaker 1: eight here fifty five KRCD Talk Station. It's Tuesday. It's

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Speaker 1: that time a week regular listeners, No, it's appointment listening

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Speaker 1: time for the Daniel Davis Deep Dive. Retired Lieutenant Colonel

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Speaker 1: Daniel Davis joins the program every week, as he does

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Speaker 1: throughout the week with his podcast, Daniel Davis Deep Dive

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Speaker 1: talks about matters military, which he clearly has a whole

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Speaker 1: lot of information about, as we learn every single week.

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Speaker 1: Welcome back, Daniel Davis. It's always a pleasure, sir. Good

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Speaker 1: to see you did a lot.

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Speaker 2: To be here, Brian, thanks for having me back.

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Speaker 1: All right, let's start with Iran. This kind of reminded

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Speaker 1: me of the red line of the Sand Barack Obama

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Speaker 1: mentioned with regard to Syria It's use of chemical weapons.

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Speaker 1: You know, blah blah blah, red line of the sand,

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Speaker 1: do not cross it. And then the line gets crossed,

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Speaker 1: and then you wait and wait and wait for something

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Speaker 1: to happen, and nothing really happens. Donald Trump lately has

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Speaker 1: been making a lot of very strong pronouncements with regard

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Speaker 1: to the crackdown on protesters in Iran, most notably last week.

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Speaker 1: He said on Friday, I made the statement very strongly

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Speaker 1: to the they the Irani and start killing people like

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Speaker 1: they have in the past, we will get involved, will

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Speaker 1: be hitting them very hard where it hurts. Doesn't mean

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Speaker 1: boots on the ground, but it means hitting them very hard,

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Speaker 1: very hard, where it hurts. Similar pronounces have been made,

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Speaker 1: but the crackdown continues now. Depending upon who you believe.

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Speaker 1: Given the fog of war, somewhere between oh six hundred

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Speaker 1: and two thousand protesters have been killed, lots and lots

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Speaker 1: arrested a multiplier of that, but it continues. Internet's been

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Speaker 1: shut down, which makes it a little more difficult for

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Speaker 1: the protesters to organize themselves. But the Trump response now

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Speaker 1: has been to levy a twenty five percent tariffyn countries

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Speaker 1: doing business with Iran? Is that the step after these

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Speaker 1: claims about military involvement and bombs being dropped and at least

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Speaker 1: alluding to all of that, is this the response to

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Speaker 1: the line being crossed? Because of course this killing continues.

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Speaker 1: Daniel Davis, you know, I mean I.

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Speaker 2: Want to back up just a bit and even look

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Speaker 2: at why was that a red line ever drawn?

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Speaker 1: Period?

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Speaker 2: Why is it in the interest of America? Why is

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Speaker 2: it a vital national literat that we should risk our troops,

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Speaker 2: our planes and go and kill somebody in another country

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Speaker 2: because there's some protests going on, or there's things happening

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Speaker 2: in there we don't like, or that their protesters being killed.

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Speaker 2: Even that's not there's no authorization or justification for that anyway.

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Speaker 2: And so I don't know why we would let that

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Speaker 2: be a deciding factor if it wasn't our national security

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Speaker 2: or anything related to the interest of America. So that's

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Speaker 2: the first question, which has not been answered at all

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Speaker 2: so far, right, And then the second one is if

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Speaker 2: you're gonna make a threat and then all of a

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Speaker 2: sudden there's a basically a truth social post it's twenty

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Speaker 2: five percent. That's I mean, there's there's literally thousands of

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Speaker 2: sanctions already on Iran. This is not no one's even

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Speaker 2: gonna notice this one. It's not gonna have any real

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Speaker 2: impact on anything. So I don't really understand. Now, I'll

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Speaker 2: tell you what I'm concerned about. What I fear is

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Speaker 2: that we just don't have all the assets in place

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Speaker 2: right now. And that's the only reason you haven't seen

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Speaker 2: any strikes because we don't have that much combat power

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Speaker 2: up there. You may recall that just a few days

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Speaker 2: before this, we did have a big strike in Syria,

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Speaker 2: so that's obviously in the same region, and we do

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Speaker 2: have some package. I was curious that we used apparently

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Speaker 2: a large strike package against alleged ISIS targets in Syria

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Speaker 2: when we're already talking about maybe doing something in Iran,

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Speaker 2: and you don't see this big build up of power

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Speaker 2: like you did, say before the war in twenty or

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Speaker 2: the options in twenty twenty four when we helped Israel

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Speaker 2: against Iran, or in the so called Twelve Day war

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Speaker 2: in June of last year. So I'm not sure what

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Speaker 2: we can do other than firing some demonstrative missile strikes

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Speaker 2: here and there. It's not going to be really painful,

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Speaker 2: and who knows whether they're going to have any impact.

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Speaker 2: So this is this is a big puzzle to me.

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Speaker 1: It is, and I suppose to the former comments, you're

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Speaker 1: channeling a friend of the show, Senator Ran Paul, who

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Speaker 1: expresses the same concerns about congressional involvement, declarations of war,

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Speaker 1: and the larger question, Wait a second, are you going

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Speaker 1: to be doing this everywhere freedom and democracy or whatever

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Speaker 1: is in jeopardy or anywhere in the world, whether people

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Speaker 1: being having the rights violated, And the answer is that

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Speaker 1: that would be literally impossible. So we're picking and choosing.

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Speaker 1: But also I read an article, and maybe this is

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Speaker 1: to your point about whether we are ready to engage

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Speaker 1: in some sort of military operation in Iran. I've heard

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Speaker 1: that the military, the folks within the military, the generals,

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Speaker 1: the admirals with whom I guess Donald Trump consults, say

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Speaker 1: they are not ready to do engage to engage in

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Speaker 1: this that bombing Iran may suggest a much longer, more

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Speaker 1: protracted military involvement than we are ready to bite off

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Speaker 1: at this point. I guess we got our hands full

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Speaker 1: over in Venezuela with a lot of military resources there.

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Speaker 1: We certainly have not had the problem when the South

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Speaker 1: China seed disappear or go anywhere. So we're kind of

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Speaker 1: spread far and wide. Is that really maybe part of

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Speaker 1: the problem, Daniel Davis.

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Speaker 2: Well, it's part of many problems. I'll tell you that

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Speaker 2: the fact that we are spread literally to the four

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Speaker 2: wins in the Seven Seas, and we are four structure

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Speaker 2: is not really that big. And so if you get

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Speaker 2: called into engagement anywhere it's gonna come close to tapping

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Speaker 2: you out. And we saw we had fifteen percent of

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Speaker 2: the Navy and all kinds of other power marines, air Force,

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Speaker 2: Navy all down there in the Venezulin area. Well a

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Speaker 2: lot of that, most of it is, I understand, is

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Speaker 2: still there. So you haven't redeployed that anywhere. It takes

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Speaker 2: a long time to ship things back over into the

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Speaker 2: Middle East, etc.

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Speaker 1: I think you'd need.

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Speaker 2: Probably a couple of aircraft carriers if you're going to

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Speaker 2: do anything meaningful to Iran, and I haven't even heard

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Speaker 2: of the potential deployments of any of that yet. Thankfully,

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Speaker 2: I'm glad because the last thing we need to do

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Speaker 2: is to go back and start another war with Iran,

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Speaker 2: because Iran has said that this time that the gloves

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Speaker 2: would come off if you attack us again. We're going

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Speaker 2: to hit your bases throughout the Middle East. And I

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Speaker 2: can just tell you from personal experience of being there,

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Speaker 2: many of these far flung bases that we have throughout

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Speaker 2: the Middle East have literally no air defense coverage on

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Speaker 2: a strateg or on a theater level operation, and those

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Speaker 2: missiles from Iran could just rain down and there's nothing

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Speaker 2: we could do to stop them. They could cause enormous damage,

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Speaker 2: and we need to be really, really careful that we

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Speaker 2: don't get into this habit that we can bomb anyone

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Speaker 2: would want, like Venezuela and nothing will happen. Ever, because

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Speaker 2: one of these days we're going to bout off more

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Speaker 2: than we can chew, and all of a sudden, there

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Speaker 2: could be Americans throughout the Middle East or killed for

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Speaker 2: no reason at all. So this is something we really

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Speaker 2: don't need.

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Speaker 1: To do, so, I would think given the seemingly precarious

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Speaker 1: nature of the Iranian administration, given the protests, a lot

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Speaker 1: of people speculating that maybe the regime will be overthrown.

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Speaker 1: It remains to be seen. But desperate situations result in

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Speaker 1: desperate acts. So, Daniel Davis, in your military experience, do

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Speaker 1: you think Iran will make good and launch attacks on

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Speaker 1: our various military resources in the Middle East, which suggests

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Speaker 1: also that Israel might get attacked. They've done it before.

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Speaker 1: That means Israel would get involved in whatever retaliation if

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Speaker 1: they launch one.

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Speaker 2: That is the threat that it would be the US

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Speaker 2: and Israel, they said, and so they would have hit both.

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Speaker 2: And I think that the intent is to say, hey, look,

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Speaker 2: you saw what happened during the Twelve Day War. Your

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Speaker 2: air defenses in Israel couldn't even protect you, and it

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Speaker 2: won't protect you this time either, because we have rebuilt

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Speaker 2: a lot of the capacity that we lost there, and

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Speaker 2: they've continued to make a lot of these better era

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Speaker 2: ballistic missiles that were so successful last time. And listen,

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Speaker 2: a lot of these protests, too many people in the

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Speaker 2: West are saying, oh, this is just all indigenous stuff,

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Speaker 2: It's just natural. It's not there has been long time

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Speaker 2: simmering things. There are domestic issues, but there is no

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Speaker 2: question that a lot of this has been fomented from

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Speaker 2: the outside. Mike Pompeo openly admitted on his ex account

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Speaker 2: that Mossad is in the is already on the ground there.

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Speaker 2: There has been many other credible reports that both six

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Speaker 2: and CIA has been fomenting things on the ground to

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Speaker 2: try to make it worse than it was, and a

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Speaker 2: lot of people in Iran are understanding recognized that The

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Speaker 2: reason why that is so important to understand is when

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Speaker 2: you're talking about there is the legitimate possibility for large

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Speaker 2: scale upheavals that could overturn the regime.

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Speaker 1: If you make them.

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Speaker 2: The regime recognized that they their very existence could be

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Speaker 2: a threat if they do nothing. Now they have no

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Speaker 2: motivation to restrain themselves if you now add on top

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Speaker 2: of that missile. So we don't want to put them

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Speaker 2: into back them into a corner to where it's like

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Speaker 2: use it or lose it, because they may use it.

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Speaker 2: I'm just telling you our defenses will not stop most

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Speaker 2: of these things, and we will suffer casualties if we put.

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Speaker 1: Them in a no win situation. Well, you know, interesting

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Speaker 1: the global outside influence pot stirring that's made that's led

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Speaker 1: to some of these protests, we might want to look

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Speaker 1: a little bit inwardly about that same concept happening here

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Speaker 1: in the United States of America, because we have a

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Speaker 1: lot of protesters here who many analysts and researchers have

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Speaker 1: suggested are being stirred by outside nefarious forces who just

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Speaker 1: simply don't like the United States.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, you know, what's good for the goose is good

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Speaker 2: for the gander kind of thing, and we don't like that.

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Speaker 2: We don't talk about how bad it is, and we

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Speaker 2: try to expose whenever that does happen, and we've been

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Speaker 2: doing it for decades. I mean, oh yeah, a long time,

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Speaker 2: and you know, and sometimes those chickens can come home

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Speaker 2: to roost. And this is part of the reason why

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Speaker 2: I'm adamantly against that. I actually believe in self determination

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Speaker 2: of people in Iran want to change their former government.

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Speaker 1: That is their right prerogative.

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Speaker 2: They take all the risks and the potential rewards for

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Speaker 2: whatever they do on their own. We don't need to

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Speaker 2: stir the thing up or do anything because our national

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Speaker 2: security is not at risk no matter who runs Iran.

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Speaker 2: They are a weak country militarily and they don't threaten

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Speaker 2: us at all, so we don't need to use any force.

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Speaker 1: Whatever they do is.

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Speaker 2: On their own. But when we do that, Brian, it

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Speaker 2: then invites it to come back home. And I fear

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Speaker 2: that we may find that to urcha grin one day.

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Speaker 1: Well, it's interesting quote a silver parallel that I'm gonna

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Speaker 1: quickly draw here the anti Iranian sentiment, and I agree

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Speaker 1: with your principles about we don't need to be going

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Speaker 1: around telling anybody else how to live their lives. Period

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Speaker 1: and point taken the ant Iranian propagandas built into the equation.

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Speaker 1: We remember the overthrow of the shot, We remember the

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Speaker 1: taking of the hostages. We remember Iran threatening to blow

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Speaker 1: everybody up with the nuclear weapon. We think it's a

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Speaker 1: dangerous thing to get a nuclear weapon, on and on.

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Speaker 1: This has been going on for decades, so there's this

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Speaker 1: general animosity toward Iran which makes something like this military

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Speaker 1: strike seem more palatable. Like, yeah, this sounds analogous to

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Speaker 1: Vladimir Putin. Yeah, he was affiliated with the Soviet Union.

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Speaker 1: A lot of people my age, you know, I'm sixty,

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Speaker 1: I remember the Cold War. I hated the Soviet Union

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Speaker 1: as much as the next guy. So sort of that

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Speaker 1: animosity is baked into the cake, which is I think

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Speaker 1: a lot of the reason why people are so against

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Speaker 1: the Russian invasion in Ukraine. Again, to the security interests

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Speaker 1: of the United States, Ukraine doesn't really pose any this

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Speaker 1: war is ongoing. I see that Russia recently bombed to

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Speaker 1: the Ukrainian city which with reportedly one of those hypersonic missiles.

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Speaker 1: Is that accurate, because seems to me that Russia still

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Speaker 1: keeps moving forward and capture more Land. Daniel, Yes, it

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Speaker 1: is absolutely accurate. I was reading some of those reports.

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Speaker 1: Is very warning.

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Speaker 2: A lot of viscandors and other hypersonic missiles and then

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Speaker 2: another wave of the guaranty drones, the theater level drones

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Speaker 2: that have been going across most of them, well not

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Speaker 2: most of them, but a large number of them, a

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Speaker 2: large percentage to get through every time. And it is

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Speaker 2: just continuing to just destroy the ability of Ukraine to

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Speaker 2: have any energy electricity, either to do business or to

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Speaker 2: have military industrial capacity.

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Speaker 1: It's all just devastating that. And now then they're.

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Speaker 2: The mayor of Kiev is literally telling people to leave

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Speaker 2: the city because they don't have enough power to keep

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Speaker 2: people from freezing to death.

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Speaker 1: That tells you a lot right there, It really does.

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Speaker 1: I want to say war of attrition, but it's one

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Speaker 1: that the Russians seem to be winning, right. Just real

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Speaker 1: quick quick question before we part, Cody Daniel Davis, did

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Speaker 1: you ever when this first started, this conflict with Russian

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Speaker 1: invading Ukraine, do you ever anticipate that it would take

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Speaker 1: this long that this war would still be going on

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Speaker 1: without some clear victory. I would imagine my guess early

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Speaker 1: on would have been the rush would have rolled right

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Speaker 1: over Ukraine apps in some mace, massive outside force boots

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Speaker 1: on the ground from the European Union or NATO or whatever.

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Speaker 1: But they keep moving forward and it's been going on

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Speaker 1: for a long time.

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Speaker 2: Well, the problem with the Russians is that, and with

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Speaker 2: that scenario is that they did not intend to do that.

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Speaker 2: They did not intend to roll over and take over

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Speaker 2: the country because they knew that. I mean, they'd been

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Speaker 2: watching a year civil war going on before then, they'd

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Speaker 2: been watching NATO build up the Ukraine military, so they

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Speaker 2: knew that they were capable and fairly large, and so

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Speaker 2: they went in with a relatively small force.

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Speaker 1: It was a demonstration force.

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Speaker 2: This canard that Russia thought they were going to win

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Speaker 2: in three days was nonsense. They never said that. They

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Speaker 2: never intended that. They didn't have the force to it.

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Speaker 2: They intended to compel a negotiated settlement, which they nearly

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Speaker 2: got in Istambul two months into the war. But then

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Speaker 2: when they didn't get that, they didn't have a plan

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Speaker 2: be resourced, and that's when they said, oh crap. And

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Speaker 2: so it took them a year and a half to

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Speaker 2: get back up to the point to where they're at now,

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Speaker 2: where they can fight and win a war of attrition.

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Speaker 1: That's where are at now. And so.

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Speaker 2: That no, to answer your question, I didn't expect this Russia.

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Speaker 2: Didn't expect this. I did not expect that this would

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Speaker 2: go on this long. I thought we'd have a negotiated

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Speaker 2: settlement a long time ago, because that was in the

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Speaker 2: best interests of Europe, Ukraine, and the United States. Unfortunately,

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Speaker 2: that's not what we did, and now then we have

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Speaker 2: a much stronger Russia our on the NATO Eastern Flank

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Speaker 2: than we had before, and we're gonna have to deal

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Speaker 2: with that for a long time to come.

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Speaker 1: Every Tuesday, beginning at a thirty, the Daniel Davis Deep

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Speaker 1: Dive with our guest and friend, retired Lieutenant Colonel Daniel Davis.

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Speaker 1: Find him where you find your podcast, Daniel Davis Deep Dive,

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Speaker 1: It'll be on my blog page fifty five Casey dot com. Sir,

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Speaker 1: you have a great week. We'll do this again next Tuesday.

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Speaker 1: Look forward to it, Brian, see you then, take care, sir.

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Speaker 1: Eight forty two Dusty