Speaker 1: This is America's Trucking Network with Kevin Gordon.
Speaker 2: Welcomeabre thanks for tuning in as we head into this
Speaker 2: Turkey week here on America's struck A Network. Thursday night,
Speaker 2: my wife and I went out and before you know
Speaker 2: the show Friday morning, we went out and we got
Speaker 2: our turkey. We got a couple of things because you know,
Speaker 2: Thursday was thaw day, as we've mentioned, and we want
Speaker 2: to make sure that we got a proper turkey. Now,
Speaker 2: what we wound up doing is instead of getting a
Speaker 2: frozen turkey, we actually found a fresh, organic turkey, and
Speaker 2: we wound up spending seventy cents less per pound than
Speaker 2: what we did for a frozen turkey the previous year. Now,
Speaker 2: going out and looking at the various prices and stuff,
Speaker 2: I was seeing prices as low as thirty three cents
Speaker 2: a pound, some around fifty nine cents a pound. And
Speaker 2: so the price of turkey is not going to break
Speaker 2: the budget as far as your budget this year. As
Speaker 2: far as Thanksgiving, we've also seen last week and the
Speaker 2: week before where Walmart and Target have priced their fixings
Speaker 2: and everything that goes with the meal down to where
Speaker 2: it's actually four dollars I think the target was less
Speaker 2: than around four dollars per person feeding a group of ten,
Speaker 2: and Walmart was right within the same ballpark, So doing
Speaker 2: it right and doing a little bit of shopping does
Speaker 2: pay off. Now, what we did do, we did start
Speaker 2: our preparation because there's a salt well, you know what,
Speaker 2: I don't even know what to call it. My mom
Speaker 2: used to call it cranberry sauce, But cranberry sauce is
Speaker 2: basically what you get out of the can and so on,
Speaker 2: and maybe some orange in it. But this concoction is
Speaker 2: jello and it's got apples and celery and pecans in
Speaker 2: it and firms up pretty good. But I find it
Speaker 2: absolutely delicious. Now, we did tweak it a little bit
Speaker 2: this year with adding a little bit of cherry juice
Speaker 2: to it instead of just plain water, and it does
Speaker 2: make it a little tarder, but we did that over
Speaker 2: the weekend. As a matter of fact, we did that
Speaker 2: on Sunday, and actually it usually takes a couple of
Speaker 2: days for that to firm up, but it's firming up
Speaker 2: pretty good, I think simply because we reduced the amount
Speaker 2: of liquid to.
Speaker 1: It, so together we were able to do this.
Speaker 2: We of course, we used fresh cranberries, organic cranberries in it,
Speaker 2: and so we were preparing this and you got to
Speaker 2: do the cranberries and boil them and that sort of thing.
Speaker 2: Then added sugar and jello and then chop up all
Speaker 2: the stuff that goes into it. And of course, based
Speaker 2: on the recipe that my mom had that passed down,
Speaker 2: i'mult played that by five because you know, I want
Speaker 2: to make sure that we have plenty left over.
Speaker 1: But anyway, it was.
Speaker 2: A lot of fun watching the Hallmark movies and Christmas
Speaker 2: movies and so on. But it was interesting the way
Speaker 2: it came together, having to, you know, do this and
Speaker 2: get it all together. So we are on our way now.
Speaker 2: This afternoon, my wife began making some she was gonna
Speaker 2: make a I think a pumpkin pie, and I think
Speaker 2: she made a I don't think, or maybe that's tomorrow
Speaker 2: she's gonna make this flowerless chocolate cake. So she's experimenting
Speaker 2: with the various deserts, so to speak. So we're having
Speaker 2: a lot of fun. We're getting all ready for Thanksgiving
Speaker 2: and really looking forward to the day. We're going to
Speaker 2: have about ten people here at the well there at
Speaker 2: the house, and so Anyway, it's gonna be a lot
Speaker 2: of fun, and I'm looking forward to it. And I'm
Speaker 2: I got to tell you from what I'm seeing, because
Speaker 2: you know, as a recovering accountant, you know, I got
Speaker 2: to figure things out. And I will keep receipts from
Speaker 2: around Thanksgiving, you know, when we buy the stuff for Thanksgiving,
Speaker 2: and then going forward up until about Christmas. And I've
Speaker 2: kept receipts from probably and certain numbers for probably the
Speaker 2: last thirty four years that we've been doing Thanksgiving. And
Speaker 2: if I can remember, sometimes I'll write all the different
Speaker 2: components down and put the prices next to it and
Speaker 2: so on. But there's been a couple of years that
Speaker 2: I've skipped. But overall, looking at the prices from this
Speaker 2: year versus last year, I haven't noticed a huge difference
Speaker 2: now getting into some of the numbers that I'm seeing.
Speaker 2: And we had some of the reports last week. We'll
Speaker 2: talk about consumer sentiment and the jobs report. But it's
Speaker 2: interesting that what it appears to me what is happening
Speaker 2: is that the spoon fed regurgitators in the mainstream media
Speaker 2: are having way too much influence on what people are
Speaker 2: thinking because of them talking about inflation because of them
Speaker 2: talking about difficulties or spiking prices or whatever. It's almost
Speaker 2: a self fulfilling prophecy, because when you look at food
Speaker 2: prices this year versus last year, they're relatively the same.
Speaker 1: Anyway, we'll get into that coming up.
Speaker 2: Let's say a look at the consumer sentiment according to
Speaker 2: the Survey Michigan Survey University of Michigan. Consumer sentiment fell
Speaker 2: in November. According to the Michigan Survey, the survey's headline
Speaker 2: index dropped to fifty one, hovering near one of the
Speaker 2: lowest levels in the month's pole month poll's history. The
Speaker 2: final reading was up a hair from the preliminary November
Speaker 2: figure of fifty point three published two weeks weeks ago,
Speaker 2: but down from fifty three point six recorded in October,
Speaker 2: and it was in line with the number that economists
Speaker 2: polled by The Wall Street Journal had forecasts. Now getting
Speaker 2: into the numbers and digging into them, consumers who have
Speaker 2: faced above trend inflation for nearly half a decade.
Speaker 1: Let's back up here a second. That's a key phrase.
Speaker 2: And by the way, if my voice sounds a little hoarse,
Speaker 2: I don't know what's going on. I don't know if
Speaker 2: it's seasonal allergies or what's going on. But it's a
Speaker 2: little strain back there, not a sore throat, but just
Speaker 2: a little strain. Anyway, consumers are faced above trend inflation
Speaker 2: for nearly half a decade. Okay, a half a decade
Speaker 2: is five years, my friends. And so the Trump administration
Speaker 2: has been in office since January the twentieth. So this
Speaker 2: above the trend inflation has been going on well before
Speaker 2: Donald Trump came into office. And if you look at
Speaker 2: the trend, the actual trend is dipping below what it
Speaker 2: was during the Biden administration. Now, some of the boastful prognostications,
Speaker 2: if you will, from Trump that these prices are going
Speaker 2: to come down tremendously. Turkey prices have come down, price
Speaker 2: of eggs have come down, and a lot of these
Speaker 2: things are not related to tariffs. A lot of them
Speaker 2: are not related to increased prices. What it is is
Speaker 2: having to do with shortages, droughts. As far as beef
Speaker 2: is concerned, the bird flu having gone through some of
Speaker 2: these flocks and raised you know, when you have to
Speaker 2: kill off your flocks, you're not going to producing much eggs.
Speaker 2: So of course the demand is there. The supply is low,
Speaker 2: so the prices are high. So when you see some
Speaker 2: of those factors coming into play, those are some of
Speaker 2: the things that are throwing these numbers off. But when
Speaker 2: you compare as you know, Target did, as Walmart did
Speaker 2: with their basket of stuff for Thanksgiving, their prices are down.
Speaker 2: As a matter of fact, I think Walmart said that
Speaker 2: their prices this year are lower than they were in
Speaker 2: twenty nineteen, so that is a huge drop.
Speaker 1: And as I keep pointing out, when you go.
Speaker 2: To the grocery store, plan ahead, do a little bit
Speaker 2: of online research.
Speaker 1: You know, people do.
Speaker 2: You know people are thumbing through their phones on a
Speaker 2: regular basis, and you see them sitting around just scrolling
Speaker 2: and entertaining themselves with stupid videos and stuff like that.
Speaker 2: And that's all well and good. But when you could
Speaker 2: spend that amount of time maybe checking with different stores
Speaker 2: in your area and planning your purchase.
Speaker 1: And I'm not talking about.
Speaker 2: Running over here and running over there and running all
Speaker 2: over town and everything. You can plot your like logistics,
Speaker 2: I mean like you have to do.
Speaker 1: In the trucking industry. You have to.
Speaker 2: It doesn't make any sense for you to, you know,
Speaker 2: take you know, being the greatest in saying northern Kentucky
Speaker 2: area and do a trip down to Texas and then
Speaker 2: do a trip back to Arkansas, and then do a
Speaker 2: trip over to Nebraska and then find your way home. No,
Speaker 2: you generally find that route that shortens the distance between
Speaker 2: those points and you do it in a situation where
Speaker 2: it takes less mileage. So you know, if you're in
Speaker 2: the process, it's kind of getting late in the game
Speaker 2: in terms of buying your stuff for Thanksgiving. But in
Speaker 2: the future, if you're looking at stuff, you can say, well, Okay,
Speaker 2: I'm going to be over in this neighborhood and such
Speaker 2: and such, and I'm closer to this particular store. I
Speaker 2: can swing by there and pick up a couple items,
Speaker 2: and swing over here on my way back home and
Speaker 2: pick up a couple items, and that sort of thing.
Speaker 2: And it's amazing how much you can cut your grocery
Speaker 2: bill just by hitting those sales and making sure that
Speaker 2: you're taking advantage of what they're offering as far as
Speaker 2: the grocery stores are concerned.
Speaker 1: We'll pick this up a little bit coming up.
Speaker 2: I'm Kevin Gordon, America Struck a Network seven hundred WLW.
Speaker 2: Kevin Gordon America Constructing Network seven hundred WLW, continuing the
Speaker 2: story on consumer sentiment, again reading between the lines. If
Speaker 2: you learn readjust the headline, you'll get a completely different
Speaker 2: feeling as far as the story is concerned. All right,
Speaker 2: we left off with consumers who have faced above trend
Speaker 2: inflation for nearly half a decade, remained frustrated with high
Speaker 2: prices and rising prices. Survey director Joanne Sue said, though
Speaker 2: the first part of November they were also contending with
Speaker 2: a record long government shutdown which disrupted food aid, air travel,
Speaker 2: and many workers' paychecks, and many federal workers paychecks. Now,
Speaker 2: as far as this consumer sentiment report is concerned, is
Speaker 2: that the only people that they identified that they specifically
Speaker 2: picked out the federal workers, people with disrupted food aid,
Speaker 2: or people that are air trains.
Speaker 1: Was it across the board?
Speaker 2: How many Conservatives, how many Liberals, how many Republicans, Democrats, whatever,
Speaker 2: how many affected class versus the unaffected class. We don't
Speaker 2: know these numbers. All we know is that they go
Speaker 2: out and do the survey and report the numbers. But
Speaker 2: when they say that people who have experienced above trend
Speaker 2: inflation for nearly half a decade, over that's five years
Speaker 2: folks that now just now they're starting to get frustrated
Speaker 2: with high prices and higher prices. No, the prices are
Speaker 2: relatively flat and in some cases coming down, and we'll
Speaker 2: see that coming up in the near future and even lower.
Speaker 2: Economic concerns also extended to the job market, which logged
Speaker 2: a rise in unemployment to four point four percent in
Speaker 2: September despite a net job creation of one hundred and
Speaker 2: nineteen thousand. Now, which is interesting that we'll get too
Speaker 2: later on, But if the one hundred and nineteen thousand
Speaker 2: jobs that were created in that month is high, how
Speaker 2: is the unemployment rate going up? Because in this next
Speaker 2: story that I'll be covering talking about the jobs created,
Speaker 2: it states in there about how people, how the extended,
Speaker 2: the labor participation rate and some of these things that
Speaker 2: affect the overall unemployment have come down. So how can
Speaker 2: unemployment go from four point two percent up to four
Speaker 2: point three and up to four point four percent when
Speaker 2: the labor participation rate is up, the overall unemployment number
Speaker 2: is down, and the weekly jobless claims are down. As
Speaker 2: we talked about last week, just kind of refresh your
Speaker 2: memory last week, they came up with the weekly jobless
Speaker 2: claims or unemployment rates for the first week, you know,
Speaker 2: the initial jobless claims for the week, and they came
Speaker 2: in at two hundred and twenty thousand, which was an
Speaker 2: eight down eight thousand unemployed people from the previous week.
Speaker 2: The government estimates or the economist estimates had estimated that
Speaker 2: two hundred and thirty thousand people would have been unemployed.
Speaker 2: They were off by four point four percent on their estimates.
Speaker 2: So the number of people on a weekly basis that
Speaker 2: have lost their jobs are well within the range of
Speaker 2: that two hundred and ten to two hundred and fifty
Speaker 2: thousand that they talk about where it's been for the
Speaker 2: last several months and even years. So how is the
Speaker 2: unemployment rate going up when you've got more people coming
Speaker 2: into the job market, and as we'll see coming up,
Speaker 2: more people are now participating in the rate, and more
Speaker 2: people have added into the job market.
Speaker 1: It just some of these numbers just don't make any sense.
Speaker 2: And I've talked about this consumer sentiment report for a
Speaker 2: long time now it depends.
Speaker 1: I would love to know who these people are.
Speaker 2: Because the spoon fed regurgitators in the mainstream media since
Speaker 2: the beginning of the year, in my opinion, have talked
Speaker 2: down the economy, trashed the economy, ninety four percent, negative
Speaker 2: coverage of the Trump administration ninety four percent or better,
Speaker 2: negative coverage of just Donald Trump himself, let alone his
Speaker 2: cabinet and so on. And so that's got a wigh
Speaker 2: on people. And you know, in my opinion, as I
Speaker 2: and I've said this before and I'll say it again,
Speaker 2: I believe that the mainstream media, as well as Lyon
Speaker 2: and Jerry Powell, are trying to manufacture a recession and
Speaker 2: the resilience of the American public. The American people are
Speaker 2: just not having any of it, and is confounding these experts.
Speaker 2: So anyway, let me see economic concerns to talk about
Speaker 2: four point four percent unemployment, which I don't understand. If
Speaker 2: you've got the same relatively level unemployment numbers on a
Speaker 2: weekly basis, why is that number going up? Looking at
Speaker 2: the trends since the spring, many economists now estimate estimate
Speaker 2: that employers are adding roughly just enough new jobs to
Speaker 2: keep joblessness joblessness in check. Well, if you keep joblessness
Speaker 2: in check, then that unemployment rate shouldn't be jumping a
Speaker 2: tenth of a percentage point or two tenths of a
Speaker 2: percentage point.
Speaker 1: It should be what it was two months ago or so.
Speaker 2: Again, these numbers are, in my opinion, just are not
Speaker 2: adding up market. Let me see jobless check a significant
Speaker 2: cool down from the job seekers market that prevailed earlier
Speaker 2: in the decade.
Speaker 1: Long frustrate.
Speaker 2: Now earlier in the decade, all right, we came out
Speaker 2: of a pandemic when everybody, when businesses shut down, factories
Speaker 2: shut down.
Speaker 1: The only thing that stayed.
Speaker 2: Open were hospitals and police officers, firefighters. Oh and by
Speaker 2: the way, abortion clinics, but we won't get into that.
Speaker 2: So these the other things were all shut down, and
Speaker 2: so when everything opened up, then what you had is
Speaker 2: more people pouring back into the job market that had
Speaker 2: previously been on an employed. And of course the numbers
Speaker 2: are going to look good at the beginning of the decade.
Speaker 2: They're in twenty twenty one, the beginning of twenty twenty two.
Speaker 2: But when you look at pre pandemic estimates or pre
Speaker 2: plandemic numbers, the jobs that were added back during that
Speaker 2: period of time did not match the number of jobs
Speaker 2: that were lost that prior to them plandemic. And so
Speaker 2: all this boasting from the previous administration about how many
Speaker 2: jobs they created, Well, compare that number to the numbers
Speaker 2: that were lost, and they still hadn't matched those numbers.
Speaker 2: And to count that as a created job when it
Speaker 2: is merely a job that is replacing or backfilling what
Speaker 2: had been lost previously is not a gain. And the
Speaker 2: employment range or the employment ranks. So it was a
Speaker 2: false narrative that they kept cramming down our throats and
Speaker 2: again talking about where the number of the numbers of
Speaker 2: increases and the job increases that we saw at the
Speaker 2: beginning of the decade, Well, hell, yes, you'd see a lot,
Speaker 2: but you know, you shut everything down and you're at zero,
Speaker 2: So anything up from that is going to look fantastic.
Speaker 1: So anyway, significant cool.
Speaker 2: Down from the job seekers market that prevailed earlier in
Speaker 2: the decade long, frustrating job searchers, and headlines about large
Speaker 2: scales corporate layoffs are coloring the views of the labor
Speaker 2: market far harder to navigate than it was a couple.
Speaker 1: Of years ago. Now, the headlines.
Speaker 2: About large scale corporate layoffs, not actual layoffs, the headlines
Speaker 2: talking about corporate layoffs that are in the future, possibly
Speaker 2: six months, seven months down the road as they've been
Speaker 2: talking about over the last few weeks. So with that,
Speaker 2: if you're just looking at headlines again and they haven't
Speaker 2: actually come to fruition, why is that depressing people be
Speaker 2: caught of the headline again. As I've talked about how
Speaker 2: people go through their phones, all they do is scan
Speaker 2: the headlines. They don't bother reading the story that don't
Speaker 2: get into the details of the story like we do
Speaker 2: here on America's truck and Network.
Speaker 1: In order to set that record straight.
Speaker 2: And as long as that, as long as the spoon
Speaker 2: fed regurgitators in the mainstream media are going to keep
Speaker 2: those headlines up, worse and worse the sentiment, the consumer
Speaker 2: sentiment is going to be. I'm Kevin Gordon, America's Trucking Network.
Speaker 2: Seven hundred WLW, seven hundred WLW. I'm Kevin Gordon. This
Speaker 2: is America's Trucking Network. America's truck and Network supports a
Speaker 2: mission and REES across America. You can hear us every
Speaker 2: truck and Tuesday at five am and ten am Eastern
Speaker 2: on REES across America Radio, available on the iHeartRadio app.
Speaker 1: Search the word rese now that's.
Speaker 2: Wr EA ths for Reese Across America Radio, and thank
Speaker 2: you to all our truckers for supporting the mission of
Speaker 2: rees across America. By the way, again that date for
Speaker 2: the laying of the res at the various cemeteries is
Speaker 2: December the thirteenth. It is still not too late to
Speaker 2: sponsor a wreath seventeen dollars mirror amount and that number
Speaker 2: was the same as it was last year, so there's
Speaker 2: no inflation there and a lot of these there's still
Speaker 2: I think some open lanes that if you have some time,
Speaker 2: if you can do maybe final mile or maybe a
Speaker 2: little bit longer in terms of these trips, in terms
Speaker 2: of picking up these reefs and getting them distributed across
Speaker 2: the country, just check out Reese Across America.
Speaker 1: I believe it's dot org and get on their website.
Speaker 2: It's a great website, great amount of tools, a lot
Speaker 2: of stuff having to do with all the stuff that
Speaker 2: they do throughout the year. So it's a great organization.
Speaker 2: Proud to be part of it, Proud to be part
Speaker 2: of recent Across America Radio every truck and Tuesday, and
Speaker 2: really appreciate that. By the way, if you miss any
Speaker 2: part of our program or any of our previous shows,
Speaker 2: hit up that iHeartRadio app and which has brought to
Speaker 2: you by our friends at Rust Truck Centers, and we
Speaker 2: certainly appreciate that. Again, getting back to this consumer sentiment
Speaker 2: number and the facts in here, but I'm gonna just
Speaker 2: read this headline, I under this, this this paragraph.
Speaker 1: I'm not too fond of it.
Speaker 2: But recent consumer surveys have portrayed a fault line in
Speaker 2: America's sentiment. Those with large stock stark stock portfolios are
Speaker 2: feeling more positive than people with fewer holdings because of
Speaker 2: the roaring market has fueled significant gains for investors. Well,
Speaker 2: there's an awful lot. There's a large percentage of the
Speaker 2: people out there. I don't know off the top of
Speaker 2: my head, I don't remember what the number is. But
Speaker 2: if you have a four oh one k, or if
Speaker 2: you're invested in your company's program in terms of either
Speaker 2: pension or their participation in if you have the four
Speaker 2: oh one k through work and then they max that
Speaker 2: or equal that or whatever from the corporations, you're still
Speaker 2: in the market. You're not seeing it on a regular basis.
Speaker 2: You're seeing in your statements on a quarterly basis or
Speaker 2: on a monthly basis. But again, you are still involved
Speaker 2: in the stock market. Now some of the people that
Speaker 2: are not involved in the stock market, well, you know, people, Again,
Speaker 2: this doesn't change whether you're having fantastic economic times, middle
Speaker 2: of the road economic times, or downturn. During the recession
Speaker 2: back in or they call it the Great recession back
Speaker 2: in two thousand and eight, two thousand and nine or so,
Speaker 2: people were still making money. People with the right count
Speaker 2: that had the wherewithal and that could wait things out
Speaker 2: as far as the downturn in the market did very
Speaker 2: well during that period of time. But again those that
Speaker 2: weren't invested in and that didn't do so well. We
Speaker 2: saw in the housing market. We talked about that on
Speaker 2: this program, where in twenty two thousand and eight, two
Speaker 2: thousand and nine, the housing market collapsed. We had a
Speaker 2: kind of across the board reduction of about forty percent
Speaker 2: in the value of homes, and so people found themselves underwater.
Speaker 2: And as as we got through the recession, those numbers
Speaker 2: came up back up. It took a little bit longer
Speaker 2: than what it normally takes in a recession, but by
Speaker 2: twenty twelve twenty fourteen, people were back to where they
Speaker 2: were before the recession began, and so holding onto the
Speaker 2: home if you have the people maintaining their jobs and
Speaker 2: trying to go through some creative measures to hang onto
Speaker 2: the house. Because there were some programs that were done
Speaker 2: by the banks in order to try to keep people
Speaker 2: in because they didn't want those homes dumped on them,
Speaker 2: because if somebody wounds up, if they wound up wind
Speaker 2: up for closing on homes and they can't sell those homes,
Speaker 2: they're stuck with that home on their books. And so
Speaker 2: there was a lot of leaf programs that were done
Speaker 2: during that period of time. But again, you don't base
Speaker 2: this on because you know, I've talked in terms before
Speaker 2: of you know, in a lot of instances of what
Speaker 2: we look at as far as what's going on in
Speaker 2: the economy or the country or so on. Sometimes it
Speaker 2: boils down to not only necessarily Republicans versus Democrats, Conservatives
Speaker 2: versus liberals. It has to do with the affected class
Speaker 2: versus the unaffected class. The liberals in Hollywood, the liberals
Speaker 2: on the DNC side, they're not affected. If they're the
Speaker 2: upper class, they're not affected by this. The rich people
Speaker 2: on the right in the conservative side, they're not affected
Speaker 2: by that, but we the affected class here in the middle,
Speaker 2: we are affected by every one of these things. And
Speaker 2: so it's a battle between the affected class and the
Speaker 2: unaffected class. And that's being and they're playing this up
Speaker 2: as if in this article, as if it's something new
Speaker 2: that has never been there before. But even those good
Speaker 2: feelings could face a test amid rough November on Wall
Speaker 2: Street with the rise in the in the stock market,
Speaker 2: the stock market over the last month. Now, remember back
Speaker 2: on Liberation Day, back on April the second, the stock
Speaker 2: market went down tremendously. It was more than a correction,
Speaker 2: I think it was what it was at fifteen to
Speaker 2: twenty percent down almost overnight, and then people that hung
Speaker 2: in there did. Stock market over the last couple of
Speaker 2: months have not only beat what it was prior to
Speaker 2: April the second, but gone even higher. And on a weekly,
Speaker 2: on a daily basis, for about three or four weeks
Speaker 2: there every day was a record high, not a record
Speaker 2: high for the week, not a record high for the month,
Speaker 2: not a record high for the past six months, but
Speaker 2: a record high ever in the stock market. So when
Speaker 2: you have that rapid increase during that period of time,
Speaker 2: at some point people are going to take some you know,
Speaker 2: take winnings off the table cash in kind of take
Speaker 2: their you know, take their earnings and take their wins
Speaker 2: and then go back into the market later on. But
Speaker 2: again that is where people where the market starts going down,
Speaker 2: and what they talk about is we're not even near
Speaker 2: what they talk in terms as far as a correction
Speaker 2: in the market. It's gone down a little bit, but
Speaker 2: it hasn't gone down to the point where it's actually
Speaker 2: considered a correction. So any of this playing up that oh, well,
Speaker 2: you know the stock market was down five percent and
Speaker 2: recent you know, and so on, well, you know, until
Speaker 2: it gets up to the ten fifteen percent, you're not
Speaker 2: in the correction. Weaker employment picture prompted two interest rate
Speaker 2: cuts from the Federal Reserve at the Central Banks meeting
Speaker 2: in September October, but officials have appeared split on whether
Speaker 2: they should hold rates steady in December. Although both challenges
Speaker 2: are clearly weighing on consumers concerns about a long run inflation.
Speaker 2: Long run inflation un lest at least hasn't been worsening,
Speaker 2: according to the Michigan Survey, a reassuring sign for the
Speaker 2: Fed because fears of persistent inflation are sometimes thought to
Speaker 2: become self fulfilling. And again what I talked about earlier
Speaker 2: is that we keep talking about inflation, keep talking about inflation.
Speaker 2: People are going to people are going to be thinking
Speaker 2: in terms of inflation, whether or not they're feeling it.
Speaker 1: In their own home or not.
Speaker 2: Long run inflation expectations fell to now get this, okay,
Speaker 2: Long term expectations for inflation fell to three point four percent,
Speaker 2: down from three point nine percent in October. So people
Speaker 2: forecasting out thinking that inflation was going to be approaching
Speaker 2: four percent are now back down to the three percent range.
Speaker 2: So how can those people that feel that way have
Speaker 2: a bad sentiment as far as the economy is concerned.
Speaker 2: Like I said, a lot of these numbers and the
Speaker 2: way they're displaying them just don't add up, And it
Speaker 2: almost seems like you've got a jackal in a hyde
Speaker 2: economy out there, where the media is talking it down,
Speaker 2: but that people are being resilient and working through it. Now,
Speaker 2: coming up, we're going to be talking about the job's numbers,
Speaker 2: because those came in pretty hot last week and a
Speaker 2: lot of good information there, and we'll get to that
Speaker 2: coming up. I'm Kevin Gordon America's struck A network. Seven
Speaker 2: hundred WLW seven hundred WLW. I'm Kevin Gordon. This is
Speaker 2: America's struck A network. I mentioned in the previous segment
Speaker 2: that the job numbers came in last week. Non farm
Speaker 2: payroll one hundred and nineteen thousand added, a jobless rate
Speaker 2: goes up to four point four. Like I said, the
Speaker 2: numbers don't add up. As far as I'm concerned, US
Speaker 2: economy added substantially more jobs than expected in September. According
Speaker 2: to the long awaited report Thursday from the Bureau of
Speaker 2: Labor Statistics, non farm payroll increased by one hundred and
Speaker 2: nineteen thousand in a month, up from the four thousand
Speaker 2: jobs lost in August. So that's a swing of one
Speaker 2: hundred and twenty three thousand jobs Following a downward revision.
Speaker 2: The Dow Jones consensus estimate for September was fifty thousand,
Speaker 2: so the economists were expecting for September only fifty thousand increase.
Speaker 2: It came in at one hundred and nineteen thousand, so
Speaker 2: their estimates were off, and their expectations were off by
Speaker 2: one hundred and thirty eight percent. The July total was
Speaker 2: also revised down to seventy two thousand, a decrease of
Speaker 2: seven thousand from the prior release. In addition to the
Speaker 2: headline's job numbers that we talked about before BLS, the
Speaker 2: unemployment rage rate edged up higher to four point four percent,
Speaker 2: the highest it's been since October of twenty twenty one.
Speaker 2: A broader measure that includes the those not looking for
Speaker 2: jobs or working part time for economic reasons edged lower
Speaker 2: to eight percent. Now they don't say edge lower from what,
Speaker 2: But I did look it up, and I saw a
Speaker 2: number that was like eight point four or eight point
Speaker 2: one that I couldn't get nailed that down. But still,
Speaker 2: if the number of people that are considered unemployed and
Speaker 2: have stopped working part of the labor participation rate is up,
Speaker 2: then you would expect to see unemployment numbers go up.
Speaker 2: If that number comes down, why is the unemployment number
Speaker 2: going up again?
Speaker 1: These things just don't make any sense to me.
Speaker 2: Average hourly earnings increase point two percent for the month
Speaker 2: and three point eight percent from a year ago, compared
Speaker 2: to a respective forecast of three percent three point eight
Speaker 2: So the forecasts were lower than what it actually came
Speaker 2: in at report ends the data drought the labor market
Speaker 2: that began in early September and continued through the record one,
Speaker 2: record forty four day government shutdown, and who caused that
Speaker 2: that was caused by the Democrats. The Schumer's shutdown agencies,
Speaker 2: including the BLS and Bureau of Economic Analysis and others,
Speaker 2: were prohibited from collecting or releasing data during the period.
Speaker 2: This was the first report since the beginning of August thereabouts.
Speaker 2: Daniel Zou, chief economists at job site Glass Doors, said,
Speaker 2: September's jobs report shows the labor market still had resilience
Speaker 2: before the shutdown, beating payroll expectations, but the picture remains muddy,
Speaker 2: with August jobs revised to a job loss and unemployment
Speaker 2: rate increasing again. Why is the rate increasing if the
Speaker 2: jobs are creating are going up and the overall including
Speaker 2: people who have stoppler looking for work, has come down.
Speaker 2: Stock market futures nevertheless added to gains following the report.
Speaker 2: Traders also continue to bet that the Federal Reserve will
Speaker 2: not lower interest rates further at its December the ninth
Speaker 2: and tenth meeting ninth through the tenth meeting, So that's
Speaker 2: mudding the waters as far as that's concerned, and again
Speaker 2: probably playing on as far as consumer sentiment is concerned.
Speaker 2: Despite the fact that today jobs report is very backward looking.
Speaker 2: This is a quote from Sema Shaw, she is chief
Speaker 2: Global Strategist at Principal Asset Management. Despite the fact that
Speaker 2: today's report is very backward looking, well what else would
Speaker 2: it be if the jobs that were created? You have
Speaker 2: to find out what those jobs are, and before you
Speaker 2: report them. You can't forecast ahead and say, well, gee wiz,
Speaker 2: let me get out my crystal ball and let me
Speaker 2: see forward thinking in terms of what the job market
Speaker 2: is going to be. Shoot, if you could do that,
Speaker 2: you should, you know, do that crystal ball.
Speaker 1: To find lottery numbers.
Speaker 2: Equities like the fact that the payrolls were stronger than expected,
Speaker 2: suggesting the economy is still on firm footing, while the
Speaker 2: bond market likes the rise in unemployment slow down so on. Overall,
Speaker 2: the report shows that the labor market entered the autumn
Speaker 2: months on much the same footing and has it been
Speaker 2: all year long, slow but steady pace. People are not
Speaker 2: getting laid off, and people are not businesses are not
Speaker 2: laying off, and they're not hiring. Separate Labor Department release
Speaker 2: on Thursday showed that the initial jobless claims. Talking about
Speaker 2: those unemployment numbers have come down that way. On the downside,
Speaker 2: transpency jobs were added in healthcare forty three thousand. Bars
Speaker 2: and restaurants contributed thirty seven thousand. Those are in the
Speaker 2: service industries, So if those are up, people are out.
Speaker 2: They're not hiring people in that area, or they're not
Speaker 2: increasing their staff if the business isn't there. So apparently
Speaker 2: people are out spending money at bars and restaurants and
Speaker 2: they need the staff to fulfill that. Transportation and warehousing
Speaker 2: lost twenty five thousand jobs, part of the loss of
Speaker 2: ninety seven on the calendar year. Professional business services also
Speaker 2: reported to decline, the twenty thousand fueled by the drop
Speaker 2: of sixteen thousand and temporary help. Now they do report
Speaker 2: later on that the number of people working part time,
Speaker 2: and see that again, this is one of those numbers
Speaker 2: that don't add up. Rolls for full employment swelled by
Speaker 2: six hundred and seventy three thousand, while part timers fell
Speaker 2: by five hundred and seventy three. Now was that sixteen
Speaker 2: thousand the temporary help lost? Did they become full time?
Speaker 2: They don't explain in here. Total level of those employed
Speaker 2: rose by two hundred and fifty one thousand, while the
Speaker 2: labor force increased by four hundred and seventy thousand to
Speaker 2: a fresh record of one hundred and seventy one million
Speaker 2: people working. That is a record number of people working.
Speaker 2: The participation rate, which measures the share of the working
Speaker 2: age population either working or seeking employment, edged higher to
Speaker 2: sixty two point four percent, the highest since May. So,
Speaker 2: like I said, these numbers are not adding up. If
Speaker 2: they're talking about unemployment going up, then why are job
Speaker 2: seekers the number of people added to the labor force
Speaker 2: going up, and a record number of people participating in
Speaker 2: the job market.
Speaker 1: I just don't understand it. Now.
Speaker 2: One of the things that I want to get to
Speaker 2: here real quick is some of the comments that were
Speaker 2: made in terms of what oil prices are doing. Because
Speaker 2: oil prices currently West Texas Intermediate crude is at fifty
Speaker 2: eight dollars and eighty one cents a barrel. That's seventy
Speaker 2: five cents from Friday, But just since January the twentieth,
Speaker 2: it's down eighteen dollars and eight cents. That's a twenty
Speaker 2: four percent decrease since January. Brent crude down is at
Speaker 2: sixty three thirty four, up about a buck from Friday,
Speaker 2: but since January is down sixteen dollars and fifty six cents,
Speaker 2: that is a twenty one percent decrease, So again those
Speaker 2: prices are coming down there now looking at what's going
Speaker 2: on in the oil markets. The headline was and when
Speaker 2: you print it off, it talks about interest rates, but
Speaker 2: the headline on the website was oil prices edge higher
Speaker 2: as US interest rates and Ukraine peace talks jostle for attention.
Speaker 1: Now, one of the things that popped out on.
Speaker 2: This report is they talk about what is going on
Speaker 2: in terms of Russia, whether or not they're going to
Speaker 2: reach some sort of an agreement, whether there's going to
Speaker 2: be this peace dividend, or whether or not the price
Speaker 2: is going to go up, whether Russian oil companies, if
Speaker 2: the sanctions are going to be lifted off there, and
Speaker 2: whether or not oil is going to be flowing into
Speaker 2: the market and so on. They talked about how the
Speaker 2: Federal Reserve is kicking around the idea there are a
Speaker 2: lot of members of the Federal Reserve that are talking
Speaker 2: about wanting to decrease interest rates. In their meeting onto
Speaker 2: some of the sixth through the seventh I think that
Speaker 2: number was, but then there are some that are holding
Speaker 2: out and saying that they should be remaining the same fat.
Speaker 2: Governor Christopher Waller sat on Monday that the available data
Speaker 2: indicates the US job market remains weak enough to warrant
Speaker 2: another quarter point cut, though action beyond that will depend
Speaker 2: on the flood of data and so on from the
Speaker 2: growth of labor statistics.
Speaker 1: Hit this line in here.
Speaker 2: Lower interest rates could boost economic growth and oil demand
Speaker 2: by reducing borrowing costs for consumers and businesses.
Speaker 1: What have I been saying on this.
Speaker 2: Program, on and on and on about our interest rates
Speaker 2: being higher than they are in Europe, in Canada, across
Speaker 2: some of the developed countries, and Lion Jerry Powell keeping
Speaker 2: our interest rates high, artificially high, in my opinion, that
Speaker 2: is stifling the economy. Let me repeat that last sentence.
Speaker 2: Lower interest rates could boost economic growth and oil demand
Speaker 2: by reducing borrowing costs for consumers and businesses. So, when
Speaker 2: you have more money in your pocket because you're not
Speaker 2: paying sky high interest rates, that makes the house that
Speaker 2: you're in more affordable, or the house you would like
Speaker 2: to attain become more affordable. You get more bang for
Speaker 2: your buck. In terms of where your salary is versus
Speaker 2: the size house you can buy or the price of
Speaker 2: the house you can buy, and it reduces your monthly payment.
Speaker 2: And so if your monthly payment is down, there's more
Speaker 2: money in your pocket. You have more money to spend
Speaker 2: on discretionary things, which then means that you're out about
Speaker 2: possibly buying more stuff at a store, whether a retail
Speaker 2: chain or whether it's at food and restaurant. We saw
Speaker 2: the job numbers where increases in the restaurant and bar
Speaker 2: staffs are up. So again, when they're talking about interest
Speaker 2: rate decreases stimulate the economy. If the Federal Reserve they
Speaker 2: say that their intention or that their mission is to
Speaker 2: keep inflation low and to keep the job market strong.
Speaker 2: The job market has been strong. The number of the
Speaker 2: amount of inflation is holding steady. It's a at the
Speaker 2: level that it's been for the last well a couple
Speaker 2: of years, basically well with lower than what it was
Speaker 2: during the Biden years in twenty twenty two and twenty
Speaker 2: twenty three, but as far as twenty twenty four. Towards
Speaker 2: the end of twenty twenty four and then into this year,
Speaker 2: it's been relatively the same somewhere around the two point
Speaker 2: seven to three percent range, so it's not drastically going
Speaker 2: up and the Fed wanting that interest rate or that
Speaker 2: inflation rate down round two percent. It hasn't been around
Speaker 2: two percent since the previous Trump administration at two point one,
Speaker 2: so given what the economy does during the Trump administration,
Speaker 2: we should see that coming down and at least they
Speaker 2: have the track record of that and can adjust that
Speaker 2: interest rate down, which, as they say, will spur the economy. Well, folks,
Speaker 2: that does it for us. Stay tuned for Redie Radio
Speaker 2: at top the hour. I'm Kevin Gordon, America's Trucking Network
Speaker 2: seven hundred WLW