WEBVTT - 3-5-26 Sloan with Kevin Burton

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<v Speaker 1>I don't want to be in a Mexican All right,

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<v Speaker 1>here we go, Scott's long back half of the week.

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<v Speaker 1>It's all good, seven hundred wlw is. The rain just

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<v Speaker 1>continues to hammer us right now. If your basement is

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<v Speaker 1>not not wet, you're lucky.

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<v Speaker 2>You're lucky.

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<v Speaker 1>Six days now when they ran war, more Americans disapprove

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<v Speaker 1>than approve. The MAGA coalition is fracturing, somewhat, Democrats are

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<v Speaker 1>fracturing somewhat. Congress is paralyzed. The White House still can't

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<v Speaker 1>explain why we're fighting in the first place. And the

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<v Speaker 1>poll numbers aren't good. So we'll do a little bit

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<v Speaker 1>of a dive on that one this morning with Kevin Burton.

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<v Speaker 1>Kevin with Crosstown Consulting here in Cincinnati. How are you, buddy,

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<v Speaker 1>pretty good by yourself. I'm doing fine. I'm doing fine. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>your basement's not the only thing underwater right now. So

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<v Speaker 1>latest poll numbers here, and this is impacting the midterm

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<v Speaker 1>elections and of course control of Congress, bounce of power,

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<v Speaker 1>all those things. Fox News pulling shows the most favorable

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<v Speaker 1>split is only at fifty percent approval. Fifty percent approval rating,

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<v Speaker 1>you'll take it, right, but even then that within the

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<v Speaker 1>Fox News poll there's only what only forty percent of

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<v Speaker 1>independence are on board with the war in Iran. CNN

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<v Speaker 1>shows a fifty nine percent disapproval rate, a Ugov Dot

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<v Speaker 1>Pole shows a forty eight percent disapproval rate. Only like

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<v Speaker 1>third one and three approved in that poll. So overall,

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<v Speaker 1>nearly six and tens are over six and ten Americans

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<v Speaker 1>are against action in Iraq. And it's obviously a huge

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<v Speaker 1>partisan divide as well. So that is the lay of

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<v Speaker 1>the land right now. And we've got the Texas midterms

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<v Speaker 1>going on, which generally I don't pay too much attention

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<v Speaker 1>to because I live in Ohio, you live in Kentucky, Kevin.

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<v Speaker 1>But overall, right now, this is not a it's not

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<v Speaker 1>a good look for the White House. Polling shows this disapproval.

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<v Speaker 1>So does that typically harden or soften as a military

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<v Speaker 1>operation of folds because we're in the first few days

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<v Speaker 1>of this and we don't know how much longer it's

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<v Speaker 1>going to go. But do the numbers get worse from

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<v Speaker 1>this point out?

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<v Speaker 2>I mean, the only thing.

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<v Speaker 3>That we can look back on is both you know,

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<v Speaker 3>Biden pulling out from Afghanistan and the George W. Bush,

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<v Speaker 3>right because both of those are in recent memories, and

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<v Speaker 3>both of those hurt both presidents.

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<v Speaker 2>Going forward, now, the.

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<v Speaker 3>One question is this something that is a three to

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<v Speaker 3>four week operation or is this something that's going to

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<v Speaker 3>be a quagmire. You know, like if if troops go,

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<v Speaker 3>I think there's something around like twelve to fifteen percent

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<v Speaker 3>of Americans when actually sent troops. Uh, then I think

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<v Speaker 3>you're going to be looking at a two thousand and

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<v Speaker 3>eight style wipeout for the Republicans. If this is just

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<v Speaker 3>a quick operation, maybe no harm, no foul yet.

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<v Speaker 1>Like Obama, Obama didn't hurt him. Obama came he boo boom, Morain,

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<v Speaker 1>we're out this. So it's if it's days, we're okay.

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<v Speaker 1>If it's weeks, different start, if it's months, forget about it.

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<v Speaker 2>Yes, exactly, that's that's the perfect way to say it. Now.

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<v Speaker 1>And Trump is non committal on this whole thing, of course. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>that's and that's not a good look. I think that's

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<v Speaker 1>not good if you're Republican. Right now, the Fox News

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<v Speaker 1>poll shows a more favorable flip than CNN, you gover

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<v Speaker 1>the other ones. Now, well, how do you explain that gap?

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, typically, well, it's because it's a right leading

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<v Speaker 1>you know, they're going to make Trump look good, but

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<v Speaker 1>that's not always the case.

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<v Speaker 3>No, And also it's their sample size. So some poles

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<v Speaker 3>will do like five are roughly around five hundred. Other

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<v Speaker 3>poles will do thirteen hundred, other poles will do twenty

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<v Speaker 3>seven hundred, which obviously if.

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<v Speaker 2>You do more people, the pole is going to be better.

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<v Speaker 3>You know, poles are random, it's completely random, but like

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<v Speaker 3>you will just randomly get a bad sub section of poles.

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<v Speaker 3>So it's always important when you're looking at poles to

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<v Speaker 3>take the aggregate aggregate of all of them because that's

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<v Speaker 3>generally where it's going to lie most in the middle.

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<v Speaker 2>Ye know.

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<v Speaker 1>And people will say, well, I mean Trump is you know,

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<v Speaker 1>he never was able to fit in that bucket anyway,

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<v Speaker 1>because trying to measure his supporters is really really tough.

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<v Speaker 1>But that was more of was that more of a

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<v Speaker 1>one off or a couple times supposed to Again, of

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<v Speaker 1>water always comes back to level, right, is that the case?

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<v Speaker 3>Now?

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<v Speaker 1>It's like yeah, pretty much, Now we were pretty good

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<v Speaker 1>at measuring Trump supporters.

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<v Speaker 3>Well, so Trump in twenty sixteen, they couldn't measure them

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<v Speaker 3>in twenty twenty Remember it was Democrats have to be

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<v Speaker 3>up seven points nationally in the polls for that to

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<v Speaker 3>correlate to a general.

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<v Speaker 2>Election will win.

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<v Speaker 3>The Harris poll was basically fifty to fifty the whole time,

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<v Speaker 3>give or take.

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<v Speaker 2>So that one wasn't as shocking.

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<v Speaker 3>So, yes, polling has gotten better, but there still is

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<v Speaker 3>the undercurrent of rural America just pulling just hasn't quite figured.

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<v Speaker 2>That out yet.

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<v Speaker 3>Yes, they've gotten better. It's it's way better than twenty fifteen,

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<v Speaker 3>twenty sixteen. But at the end of the day, independents

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<v Speaker 3>are going to dictate who wins the House the Senate

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<v Speaker 3>later this year.

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<v Speaker 1>Gotcha, all right? So we know that elections are won

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<v Speaker 1>in the middle Independent disapproval rating anywhere between fifty five

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<v Speaker 1>and near seventy percent, depending on the poll, And that

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<v Speaker 1>is the one that you've got to be looking at

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<v Speaker 1>and being really nervous about right now if you're a

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<v Speaker 1>Republican in those numbers. But do you see opportunity there

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<v Speaker 1>as a Democrat and can the capitalize not that's a

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<v Speaker 1>big question.

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<v Speaker 3>Well, I mean Democrats have kind of just been lost

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<v Speaker 3>in the wilderness for the last honestly decade trying to

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<v Speaker 3>figure out a strategy. They just can't figure out Trump.

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<v Speaker 3>But the one thing that can think of presidency faster

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<v Speaker 3>than anything is an unpopular war decision, you KNOWLBJ add

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<v Speaker 3>to that with Biden. So if you're Democrats, but to

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<v Speaker 3>your point, roughly about twenty percent of Democrats actually support this,

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<v Speaker 3>So it's actually very fascinating why twenty three percent of

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<v Speaker 3>Republicans disapprove of this.

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<v Speaker 2>So it's it's still.

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<v Speaker 3>Very very early. I think there's a lot of people.

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<v Speaker 3>If you are a millennial, you grew up with the

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<v Speaker 3>Iraq and Afghanistan wares, so you understand that.

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<v Speaker 2>I think if you're under thirty.

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<v Speaker 3>Five, you don't probably really understand, you know, watching the

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<v Speaker 3>news every day, seeing you know, soldiers and things that.

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<v Speaker 3>So I think it's all, is this Obama Libya where

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<v Speaker 3>you know, bomb bombbomb quick over no troops or is

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<v Speaker 3>this the Iraq war?

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<v Speaker 2>George Bush?

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<v Speaker 1>I think it's gotta be fad right.

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<v Speaker 2>Is that okay?

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<v Speaker 1>We we thought there? I mean we've been talking about

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<v Speaker 1>Iran getting nukes and weaponizing since the nineties. I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>is it clear and present danger? I don't know if

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<v Speaker 1>I buy that, but I'm fine with them taking out

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<v Speaker 1>Comani because not only one of the people, but because

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<v Speaker 1>of the whole regime. And maybe you don't go and

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<v Speaker 1>take the country over and try and rebuild it in

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<v Speaker 1>your own likeness, because that doesn't work. We're horrible at

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<v Speaker 1>regime change, We're just terrible at it. But going and

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<v Speaker 1>cutting the head and decapitating it and then taking out

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<v Speaker 1>these strategic sites, making them start all over again, and

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<v Speaker 1>instead of maybe having nuclear power in ten years, it's

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<v Speaker 1>you've set them back a couple more decades at least.

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<v Speaker 1>I think most Americans are fine with that. It's just

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<v Speaker 1>a protracted war. We don't want if he winds up

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<v Speaker 1>getting in getting out, do we see those approval rating

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<v Speaker 1>skyrocket then?

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<v Speaker 3>And that's the great unknown, you know, if this is

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<v Speaker 3>a quick successful operation.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, it's very possible. But I think at this point with.

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<v Speaker 3>Trump, Tizer dug dug In, you know, it's all about

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<v Speaker 3>the independence. And so that's about ten to fifteen percent

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<v Speaker 3>of the voting Democrats aren't going to move, Republicans aren't

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<v Speaker 3>going to move on this.

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<v Speaker 2>A lot so and it depends.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, So the MAGA coalition was built on anti interventionism

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<v Speaker 1>and other things too that Trump has like turned his

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<v Speaker 1>back on and he looks like he's turning his back here.

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<v Speaker 1>And you have defections from you know, people like Megan

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<v Speaker 1>Kelley and Tucker Calls and others that broke Trump. How

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<v Speaker 1>significant is that at this point?

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<v Speaker 2>You know?

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<v Speaker 3>I mean, those are some key stakeholders that are against

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<v Speaker 3>it because you know, he did promise no more wars

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<v Speaker 3>and we are in a different war. It seems like

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<v Speaker 3>every other week. You know. I think Americans, especially like

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<v Speaker 3>what we were just talking about. If millennials or gen X,

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<v Speaker 3>you've grown up with war your whole entire life.

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<v Speaker 2>You understand the magnitude.

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<v Speaker 3>Of it that it's not something that you take lightly,

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<v Speaker 3>both with the loss of life and financial I don't

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<v Speaker 3>think what is it about ninety percent of Americans don't

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<v Speaker 3>want to send troops.

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<v Speaker 2>So you know, we got to see what the president

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<v Speaker 2>and his team does.

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<v Speaker 3>It's still very early. We're six days in. You know, Yes,

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<v Speaker 3>it was a very successful thing to get rid of

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<v Speaker 3>the eyes whole. What does that translate to and how

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<v Speaker 3>many lives of you know, American servicemen.

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<v Speaker 2>Does that dictate it? It's still very very early, right.

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<v Speaker 1>We had Congress of course striking out the war powers,

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<v Speaker 1>our solution. Greg Landsman voted no on that, and I'd

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<v Speaker 1>imagine he's facing now more primary threats from the left.

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<v Speaker 1>And you look at that district, but also overall, progressive

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<v Speaker 1>groups are threatening to prim at Democrats like Landsman, who

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<v Speaker 1>voted against war powers. So how effective has that strategy

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<v Speaker 1>historically been a changing incumbent voting behavior?

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<v Speaker 3>Well, so there was actually a very contested grace in

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<v Speaker 3>North Carolina really about this and about a pack and.

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<v Speaker 2>The incumbent barely held on. But you're really seeing.

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<v Speaker 3>Democrats who have gotten donations from a pac they are

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<v Speaker 3>getting primaried and they're being very contentious. You know, I

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<v Speaker 3>think democrats finally know that for primaries.

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<v Speaker 2>It's a negative thing.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, if you support Trump in any way, and I'm

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<v Speaker 3>not saying that's good, bad, or indifferent, but if you

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<v Speaker 3>support Trump in a primary, it's costly.

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<v Speaker 1>Mm We'll we'll see. Obviously it's a threat to from

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<v Speaker 1>Republicans as well. You know, the Texas primaries just happened,

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<v Speaker 1>and that should a massive Democratic turnout in a Surgeon

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<v Speaker 1>and Latino heavy counties there, and that's a demographic Trump

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<v Speaker 1>made pretty significant inroads with it in the last election cycle.

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<v Speaker 2>Is that a.

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<v Speaker 1>Is that an inroad for Democrats there? I mean, if

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<v Speaker 1>you can if you can flip to parts of or

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<v Speaker 1>Texas blue, that that's that's absolutely massive. Is that durable

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<v Speaker 1>or is that just a brief reaction what's.

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<v Speaker 2>Happening in Iran.

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<v Speaker 3>So Texas is the white whale for Democrats. That always

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<v Speaker 3>has been. I think most people would agree, regardless of

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<v Speaker 3>what you think. James tel Rico is a very talented

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<v Speaker 3>or it's ortator. You know, he's smooth, he's organic, and

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<v Speaker 3>authenticity is I think the biggest thing that comes through

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<v Speaker 3>with him and just generally I think with the American people,

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<v Speaker 3>authenticity is the number one thing that voters are looking for.

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<v Speaker 2>Regardless of what you know.

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<v Speaker 3>So people are tired of you know, growing up in

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<v Speaker 3>the early two thousands nineties, it was almost like a

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<v Speaker 3>sitcom politician, you know, like no, like people just want

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<v Speaker 3>someone who's authentic. So for Texas and the Latina thing

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<v Speaker 3>is it's a combination of ice, it's a combination of

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<v Speaker 3>rising crisis and then also James Telerga talks about faith,

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<v Speaker 3>which the Latin community is usually more religious. So for

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<v Speaker 3>the Democrats to take back house, it's gonna or the Senate,

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<v Speaker 3>it's gonna be really, really impossible. They basically have to

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<v Speaker 3>run the table. It's gonna be about a forty five

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<v Speaker 3>to forty nine breakdown. And then there's six Senate races

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<v Speaker 3>to watch, so Ohio, Texas, Michigan, North Carolina, Free any

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<v Speaker 3>the other two. But really those four they would they

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<v Speaker 3>would have to win all four of.

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<v Speaker 2>Those, and that's that's a.

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<v Speaker 3>Tall order because also fundraising for Democrats are lagging drastically

0:12:32.640 --> 0:12:35.880
<v Speaker 3>behind Republicans.

0:12:36.600 --> 0:12:37.680
<v Speaker 2>And the interesting thing.

0:12:37.679 --> 0:12:39.920
<v Speaker 3>Is Texas down is actually probably a better bet than

0:12:39.960 --> 0:12:43.560
<v Speaker 3>even Ohio with how the poll numbers are looking.

0:12:43.720 --> 0:12:47.120
<v Speaker 1>Gotcha, if Kevin Burton is here, he's with Crosstown Consulting

0:12:47.120 --> 0:12:50.959
<v Speaker 1>in northern Kentucky. He's an upholster and political analyst talking

0:12:51.000 --> 0:12:53.280
<v Speaker 1>about the poll numbers coming out of and you know,

0:12:53.360 --> 0:12:55.720
<v Speaker 1>at odds with we're talking about the Texas and of

0:12:55.760 --> 0:12:58.520
<v Speaker 1>course he wore in Iran right now and the most

0:12:58.559 --> 0:13:00.800
<v Speaker 1>favorable pullings from Fox it shows say fifty percent of

0:13:00.880 --> 0:13:03.040
<v Speaker 1>proval rating on this, but all the other ones he's

0:13:03.200 --> 0:13:06.559
<v Speaker 1>Trump is underwater on mainly with the you know, certainly

0:13:06.600 --> 0:13:08.800
<v Speaker 1>a lot of progressive all the progressives are you know,

0:13:08.840 --> 0:13:10.720
<v Speaker 1>they're going to vote you know how conservatives are but

0:13:11.240 --> 0:13:14.040
<v Speaker 1>really underwater with the middle and that's what wins and

0:13:14.080 --> 0:13:17.520
<v Speaker 1>loses elections right there. And part of this problem, though,

0:13:17.720 --> 0:13:22.160
<v Speaker 1>is the messaging on Iran Kevin it's it's it's just incoherent.

0:13:22.240 --> 0:13:25.000
<v Speaker 1>You know, there's no clear endgame, the rationale shift, we

0:13:25.679 --> 0:13:30.080
<v Speaker 1>have contradictory timelines. It is an unmitigated mess. As far

0:13:30.120 --> 0:13:33.280
<v Speaker 1>as the reason why we're doing this now, Trump is

0:13:33.400 --> 0:13:36.439
<v Speaker 1>saying one thing, He's got Rubio saying another. No one

0:13:36.520 --> 0:13:38.200
<v Speaker 1>knows up from down in this How much is that

0:13:38.280 --> 0:13:39.679
<v Speaker 1>really driving these numbers?

0:13:40.760 --> 0:13:43.920
<v Speaker 2>Well a lot. I mean, you know, George W.

0:13:44.000 --> 0:13:47.640
<v Speaker 3>Bush spent a year laying out his case right for

0:13:47.720 --> 0:13:50.120
<v Speaker 3>the Iraq war, and when we went to Iraq there

0:13:50.200 --> 0:13:53.880
<v Speaker 3>was a pretty big approval. Then you look at Biden,

0:13:53.920 --> 0:13:56.040
<v Speaker 3>who just kind of pulled the rug out and there

0:13:56.080 --> 0:13:59.680
<v Speaker 3>was no plan and he never recovered from that. So

0:14:00.600 --> 0:14:03.040
<v Speaker 3>the American people understand that if there is going to

0:14:03.080 --> 0:14:05.679
<v Speaker 3>be a war, there needs to be a there needs

0:14:05.720 --> 0:14:09.880
<v Speaker 3>to be a game plan. You can't be winged. And

0:14:09.920 --> 0:14:12.319
<v Speaker 3>that's the number one thing. You know, their messaging has

0:14:12.360 --> 0:14:16.000
<v Speaker 3>been all over the point so far. You know, take

0:14:16.040 --> 0:14:20.120
<v Speaker 3>a deep breath, collect your thoughts, orchestrate the narrative and

0:14:20.200 --> 0:14:23.480
<v Speaker 3>then tell the American people, then it'll probably have their

0:14:23.480 --> 0:14:24.120
<v Speaker 3>pull numbers.

0:14:24.400 --> 0:14:30.360
<v Speaker 1>If this goes closer to November then March and it's

0:14:30.400 --> 0:14:33.520
<v Speaker 1>still ongoing, what does that tell you about the effect

0:14:33.600 --> 0:14:36.400
<v Speaker 1>on the House and Senate races and what might happen.

0:14:37.400 --> 0:14:39.239
<v Speaker 3>I mean, you don't have to be a political consultant

0:14:39.280 --> 0:14:41.400
<v Speaker 3>to know if we're if we're in a war and

0:14:41.440 --> 0:14:44.240
<v Speaker 3>it's a non popular war, it's going to be good.

0:14:44.120 --> 0:14:46.320
<v Speaker 2>For the Democrats. It just is. Yeah.

0:14:47.120 --> 0:14:49.480
<v Speaker 3>You know, if it's a quick rip the mandate off,

0:14:50.000 --> 0:14:51.080
<v Speaker 3>you can recover from that.

0:14:51.240 --> 0:14:52.240
<v Speaker 2>But if if this.

0:14:52.360 --> 0:14:58.040
<v Speaker 3>Is a long war with troops and spending billions of dollars,

0:14:59.520 --> 0:15:03.720
<v Speaker 3>you know, with all the problems that Democrats have in

0:15:03.760 --> 0:15:06.240
<v Speaker 3>their leadership, even they probably can't screw that up.

0:15:06.320 --> 0:15:06.520
<v Speaker 2>Yeah.

0:15:06.640 --> 0:15:09.160
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, Well I wanted to leave our discussion Kevin Burton,

0:15:09.160 --> 0:15:10.640
<v Speaker 1>because you're a friend. I wanted to leave you with

0:15:10.680 --> 0:15:12.680
<v Speaker 1>a with an empty net goal or a layup if

0:15:12.720 --> 0:15:15.240
<v Speaker 1>it were to a nice easy one to end the conversation.

0:15:15.360 --> 0:15:18.840
<v Speaker 1>Kevin Burton at Crosstown Consulting in Northern Kentucky.

0:15:18.840 --> 0:15:19.720
<v Speaker 2>Thanks again, brother be.

0:15:19.680 --> 0:15:23.600
<v Speaker 1>Will thank you for always all right, take care news

0:15:23.640 --> 0:15:25.640
<v Speaker 1>on the way at about five, the weather continues. We

0:15:25.720 --> 0:15:28.840
<v Speaker 1>got rain, rain and more rain, when will if we will,

0:15:29.000 --> 0:15:30.480
<v Speaker 1>and maybe will we get a break?

0:15:30.480 --> 0:15:31.000
<v Speaker 2>Who knows?

0:15:31.040 --> 0:15:34.480
<v Speaker 1>Full forecast seconds away, And we'll continue to follow. What's

0:15:34.480 --> 0:15:39.400
<v Speaker 1>happening in Iran right now and Texas is a really

0:15:39.400 --> 0:15:41.520
<v Speaker 1>interesting indicator of how things may go in right now

0:15:41.560 --> 0:15:43.840
<v Speaker 1>now again in a few days versus a few months.

0:15:44.320 --> 0:15:47.560
<v Speaker 1>I think that is survival and probably what we should

0:15:47.600 --> 0:15:50.360
<v Speaker 1>be doing at this point. If this thing drags out,

0:15:50.400 --> 0:15:52.280
<v Speaker 1>and God forbid we start going a well, we need to.

0:15:52.440 --> 0:15:55.480
<v Speaker 1>We need some expeditionary forces there, so they would call them.

0:15:56.360 --> 0:15:59.760
<v Speaker 1>You wonder how many people who voted for Trump who

0:16:00.240 --> 0:16:02.320
<v Speaker 1>continues the boredom but just simply turn their back on them.

0:16:02.480 --> 0:16:04.840
<v Speaker 1>I know quite a few people fall into that category.

0:16:05.320 --> 0:16:08.560
<v Speaker 1>A brief strike is fine, but dragging this thing out,

0:16:09.120 --> 0:16:13.080
<v Speaker 1>you're just absolutely bearing yourself. Scott's Flan shows seven hundred W.

0:16:13.240 --> 0:16:13.480
<v Speaker 2>Welton