Speaker 1: I don't want to be in a Mexican All right,
Speaker 1: here we go, Scott's long back half of the week.
Speaker 1: It's all good, seven hundred wlw is. The rain just
Speaker 1: continues to hammer us right now. If your basement is
Speaker 1: not not wet, you're lucky.
Speaker 2: You're lucky.
Speaker 1: Six days now when they ran war, more Americans disapprove
Speaker 1: than approve. The MAGA coalition is fracturing, somewhat, Democrats are
Speaker 1: fracturing somewhat. Congress is paralyzed. The White House still can't
Speaker 1: explain why we're fighting in the first place. And the
Speaker 1: poll numbers aren't good. So we'll do a little bit
Speaker 1: of a dive on that one this morning with Kevin Burton.
Speaker 1: Kevin with Crosstown Consulting here in Cincinnati. How are you, buddy,
Speaker 1: pretty good by yourself. I'm doing fine. I'm doing fine. Yeah,
Speaker 1: your basement's not the only thing underwater right now. So
Speaker 1: latest poll numbers here, and this is impacting the midterm
Speaker 1: elections and of course control of Congress, bounce of power,
Speaker 1: all those things. Fox News pulling shows the most favorable
Speaker 1: split is only at fifty percent approval. Fifty percent approval rating,
Speaker 1: you'll take it, right, but even then that within the
Speaker 1: Fox News poll there's only what only forty percent of
Speaker 1: independence are on board with the war in Iran. CNN
Speaker 1: shows a fifty nine percent disapproval rate, a Ugov Dot
Speaker 1: Pole shows a forty eight percent disapproval rate. Only like
Speaker 1: third one and three approved in that poll. So overall,
Speaker 1: nearly six and tens are over six and ten Americans
Speaker 1: are against action in Iraq. And it's obviously a huge
Speaker 1: partisan divide as well. So that is the lay of
Speaker 1: the land right now. And we've got the Texas midterms
Speaker 1: going on, which generally I don't pay too much attention
Speaker 1: to because I live in Ohio, you live in Kentucky, Kevin.
Speaker 1: But overall, right now, this is not a it's not
Speaker 1: a good look for the White House. Polling shows this disapproval.
Speaker 1: So does that typically harden or soften as a military
Speaker 1: operation of folds because we're in the first few days
Speaker 1: of this and we don't know how much longer it's
Speaker 1: going to go. But do the numbers get worse from
Speaker 1: this point out?
Speaker 2: I mean, the only thing.
Speaker 3: That we can look back on is both you know,
Speaker 3: Biden pulling out from Afghanistan and the George W. Bush,
Speaker 3: right because both of those are in recent memories, and
Speaker 3: both of those hurt both presidents.
Speaker 2: Going forward, now, the.
Speaker 3: One question is this something that is a three to
Speaker 3: four week operation or is this something that's going to
Speaker 3: be a quagmire. You know, like if if troops go,
Speaker 3: I think there's something around like twelve to fifteen percent
Speaker 3: of Americans when actually sent troops. Uh, then I think
Speaker 3: you're going to be looking at a two thousand and
Speaker 3: eight style wipeout for the Republicans. If this is just
Speaker 3: a quick operation, maybe no harm, no foul yet.
Speaker 1: Like Obama, Obama didn't hurt him. Obama came he boo boom, Morain,
Speaker 1: we're out this. So it's if it's days, we're okay.
Speaker 1: If it's weeks, different start, if it's months, forget about it.
Speaker 2: Yes, exactly, that's that's the perfect way to say it. Now.
Speaker 1: And Trump is non committal on this whole thing, of course. Yeah,
Speaker 1: that's and that's not a good look. I think that's
Speaker 1: not good if you're Republican. Right now, the Fox News
Speaker 1: poll shows a more favorable flip than CNN, you gover
Speaker 1: the other ones. Now, well, how do you explain that gap?
Speaker 1: I mean, typically, well, it's because it's a right leading
Speaker 1: you know, they're going to make Trump look good, but
Speaker 1: that's not always the case.
Speaker 3: No, And also it's their sample size. So some poles
Speaker 3: will do like five are roughly around five hundred. Other
Speaker 3: poles will do thirteen hundred, other poles will do twenty
Speaker 3: seven hundred, which obviously if.
Speaker 2: You do more people, the pole is going to be better.
Speaker 3: You know, poles are random, it's completely random, but like
Speaker 3: you will just randomly get a bad sub section of poles.
Speaker 3: So it's always important when you're looking at poles to
Speaker 3: take the aggregate aggregate of all of them because that's
Speaker 3: generally where it's going to lie most in the middle.
Speaker 2: Ye know.
Speaker 1: And people will say, well, I mean Trump is you know,
Speaker 1: he never was able to fit in that bucket anyway,
Speaker 1: because trying to measure his supporters is really really tough.
Speaker 1: But that was more of was that more of a
Speaker 1: one off or a couple times supposed to Again, of
Speaker 1: water always comes back to level, right, is that the case?
Speaker 3: Now?
Speaker 1: It's like yeah, pretty much, Now we were pretty good
Speaker 1: at measuring Trump supporters.
Speaker 3: Well, so Trump in twenty sixteen, they couldn't measure them
Speaker 3: in twenty twenty Remember it was Democrats have to be
Speaker 3: up seven points nationally in the polls for that to
Speaker 3: correlate to a general.
Speaker 2: Election will win.
Speaker 3: The Harris poll was basically fifty to fifty the whole time,
Speaker 3: give or take.
Speaker 2: So that one wasn't as shocking.
Speaker 3: So, yes, polling has gotten better, but there still is
Speaker 3: the undercurrent of rural America just pulling just hasn't quite figured.
Speaker 2: That out yet.
Speaker 3: Yes, they've gotten better. It's it's way better than twenty fifteen,
Speaker 3: twenty sixteen. But at the end of the day, independents
Speaker 3: are going to dictate who wins the House the Senate
Speaker 3: later this year.
Speaker 1: Gotcha, all right? So we know that elections are won
Speaker 1: in the middle Independent disapproval rating anywhere between fifty five
Speaker 1: and near seventy percent, depending on the poll, And that
Speaker 1: is the one that you've got to be looking at
Speaker 1: and being really nervous about right now if you're a
Speaker 1: Republican in those numbers. But do you see opportunity there
Speaker 1: as a Democrat and can the capitalize not that's a
Speaker 1: big question.
Speaker 3: Well, I mean Democrats have kind of just been lost
Speaker 3: in the wilderness for the last honestly decade trying to
Speaker 3: figure out a strategy. They just can't figure out Trump.
Speaker 3: But the one thing that can think of presidency faster
Speaker 3: than anything is an unpopular war decision, you KNOWLBJ add
Speaker 3: to that with Biden. So if you're Democrats, but to
Speaker 3: your point, roughly about twenty percent of Democrats actually support this,
Speaker 3: So it's actually very fascinating why twenty three percent of
Speaker 3: Republicans disapprove of this.
Speaker 2: So it's it's still.
Speaker 3: Very very early. I think there's a lot of people.
Speaker 3: If you are a millennial, you grew up with the
Speaker 3: Iraq and Afghanistan wares, so you understand that.
Speaker 2: I think if you're under thirty.
Speaker 3: Five, you don't probably really understand, you know, watching the
Speaker 3: news every day, seeing you know, soldiers and things that.
Speaker 3: So I think it's all, is this Obama Libya where
Speaker 3: you know, bomb bombbomb quick over no troops or is
Speaker 3: this the Iraq war?
Speaker 2: George Bush?
Speaker 1: I think it's gotta be fad right.
Speaker 2: Is that okay?
Speaker 1: We we thought there? I mean we've been talking about
Speaker 1: Iran getting nukes and weaponizing since the nineties. I mean,
Speaker 1: is it clear and present danger? I don't know if
Speaker 1: I buy that, but I'm fine with them taking out
Speaker 1: Comani because not only one of the people, but because
Speaker 1: of the whole regime. And maybe you don't go and
Speaker 1: take the country over and try and rebuild it in
Speaker 1: your own likeness, because that doesn't work. We're horrible at
Speaker 1: regime change, We're just terrible at it. But going and
Speaker 1: cutting the head and decapitating it and then taking out
Speaker 1: these strategic sites, making them start all over again, and
Speaker 1: instead of maybe having nuclear power in ten years, it's
Speaker 1: you've set them back a couple more decades at least.
Speaker 1: I think most Americans are fine with that. It's just
Speaker 1: a protracted war. We don't want if he winds up
Speaker 1: getting in getting out, do we see those approval rating
Speaker 1: skyrocket then?
Speaker 3: And that's the great unknown, you know, if this is
Speaker 3: a quick successful operation.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's very possible. But I think at this point with.
Speaker 3: Trump, Tizer dug dug In, you know, it's all about
Speaker 3: the independence. And so that's about ten to fifteen percent
Speaker 3: of the voting Democrats aren't going to move, Republicans aren't
Speaker 3: going to move on this.
Speaker 2: A lot so and it depends.
Speaker 1: Yeah, So the MAGA coalition was built on anti interventionism
Speaker 1: and other things too that Trump has like turned his
Speaker 1: back on and he looks like he's turning his back here.
Speaker 1: And you have defections from you know, people like Megan
Speaker 1: Kelley and Tucker Calls and others that broke Trump. How
Speaker 1: significant is that at this point?
Speaker 2: You know?
Speaker 3: I mean, those are some key stakeholders that are against
Speaker 3: it because you know, he did promise no more wars
Speaker 3: and we are in a different war. It seems like
Speaker 3: every other week. You know. I think Americans, especially like
Speaker 3: what we were just talking about. If millennials or gen X,
Speaker 3: you've grown up with war your whole entire life.
Speaker 2: You understand the magnitude.
Speaker 3: Of it that it's not something that you take lightly,
Speaker 3: both with the loss of life and financial I don't
Speaker 3: think what is it about ninety percent of Americans don't
Speaker 3: want to send troops.
Speaker 2: So you know, we got to see what the president
Speaker 2: and his team does.
Speaker 3: It's still very early. We're six days in. You know, Yes,
Speaker 3: it was a very successful thing to get rid of
Speaker 3: the eyes whole. What does that translate to and how
Speaker 3: many lives of you know, American servicemen.
Speaker 2: Does that dictate it? It's still very very early, right.
Speaker 1: We had Congress of course striking out the war powers,
Speaker 1: our solution. Greg Landsman voted no on that, and I'd
Speaker 1: imagine he's facing now more primary threats from the left.
Speaker 1: And you look at that district, but also overall, progressive
Speaker 1: groups are threatening to prim at Democrats like Landsman, who
Speaker 1: voted against war powers. So how effective has that strategy
Speaker 1: historically been a changing incumbent voting behavior?
Speaker 3: Well, so there was actually a very contested grace in
Speaker 3: North Carolina really about this and about a pack and.
Speaker 2: The incumbent barely held on. But you're really seeing.
Speaker 3: Democrats who have gotten donations from a pac they are
Speaker 3: getting primaried and they're being very contentious. You know, I
Speaker 3: think democrats finally know that for primaries.
Speaker 2: It's a negative thing.
Speaker 3: Yeah, if you support Trump in any way, and I'm
Speaker 3: not saying that's good, bad, or indifferent, but if you
Speaker 3: support Trump in a primary, it's costly.
Speaker 1: Mm We'll we'll see. Obviously it's a threat to from
Speaker 1: Republicans as well. You know, the Texas primaries just happened,
Speaker 1: and that should a massive Democratic turnout in a Surgeon
Speaker 1: and Latino heavy counties there, and that's a demographic Trump
Speaker 1: made pretty significant inroads with it in the last election cycle.
Speaker 2: Is that a.
Speaker 1: Is that an inroad for Democrats there? I mean, if
Speaker 1: you can if you can flip to parts of or
Speaker 1: Texas blue, that that's that's absolutely massive. Is that durable
Speaker 1: or is that just a brief reaction what's.
Speaker 2: Happening in Iran.
Speaker 3: So Texas is the white whale for Democrats. That always
Speaker 3: has been. I think most people would agree, regardless of
Speaker 3: what you think. James tel Rico is a very talented
Speaker 3: or it's ortator. You know, he's smooth, he's organic, and
Speaker 3: authenticity is I think the biggest thing that comes through
Speaker 3: with him and just generally I think with the American people,
Speaker 3: authenticity is the number one thing that voters are looking for.
Speaker 2: Regardless of what you know.
Speaker 3: So people are tired of you know, growing up in
Speaker 3: the early two thousands nineties, it was almost like a
Speaker 3: sitcom politician, you know, like no, like people just want
Speaker 3: someone who's authentic. So for Texas and the Latina thing
Speaker 3: is it's a combination of ice, it's a combination of
Speaker 3: rising crisis and then also James Telerga talks about faith,
Speaker 3: which the Latin community is usually more religious. So for
Speaker 3: the Democrats to take back house, it's gonna or the Senate,
Speaker 3: it's gonna be really, really impossible. They basically have to
Speaker 3: run the table. It's gonna be about a forty five
Speaker 3: to forty nine breakdown. And then there's six Senate races
Speaker 3: to watch, so Ohio, Texas, Michigan, North Carolina, Free any
Speaker 3: the other two. But really those four they would they
Speaker 3: would have to win all four of.
Speaker 2: Those, and that's that's a.
Speaker 3: Tall order because also fundraising for Democrats are lagging drastically
Speaker 3: behind Republicans.
Speaker 2: And the interesting thing.
Speaker 3: Is Texas down is actually probably a better bet than
Speaker 3: even Ohio with how the poll numbers are looking.
Speaker 1: Gotcha, if Kevin Burton is here, he's with Crosstown Consulting
Speaker 1: in northern Kentucky. He's an upholster and political analyst talking
Speaker 1: about the poll numbers coming out of and you know,
Speaker 1: at odds with we're talking about the Texas and of
Speaker 1: course he wore in Iran right now and the most
Speaker 1: favorable pullings from Fox it shows say fifty percent of
Speaker 1: proval rating on this, but all the other ones he's
Speaker 1: Trump is underwater on mainly with the you know, certainly
Speaker 1: a lot of progressive all the progressives are you know,
Speaker 1: they're going to vote you know how conservatives are but
Speaker 1: really underwater with the middle and that's what wins and
Speaker 1: loses elections right there. And part of this problem, though,
Speaker 1: is the messaging on Iran Kevin it's it's it's just incoherent.
Speaker 1: You know, there's no clear endgame, the rationale shift, we
Speaker 1: have contradictory timelines. It is an unmitigated mess. As far
Speaker 1: as the reason why we're doing this now, Trump is
Speaker 1: saying one thing, He's got Rubio saying another. No one
Speaker 1: knows up from down in this How much is that
Speaker 1: really driving these numbers?
Speaker 2: Well a lot. I mean, you know, George W.
Speaker 3: Bush spent a year laying out his case right for
Speaker 3: the Iraq war, and when we went to Iraq there
Speaker 3: was a pretty big approval. Then you look at Biden,
Speaker 3: who just kind of pulled the rug out and there
Speaker 3: was no plan and he never recovered from that. So
Speaker 3: the American people understand that if there is going to
Speaker 3: be a war, there needs to be a there needs
Speaker 3: to be a game plan. You can't be winged. And
Speaker 3: that's the number one thing. You know, their messaging has
Speaker 3: been all over the point so far. You know, take
Speaker 3: a deep breath, collect your thoughts, orchestrate the narrative and
Speaker 3: then tell the American people, then it'll probably have their
Speaker 3: pull numbers.
Speaker 1: If this goes closer to November then March and it's
Speaker 1: still ongoing, what does that tell you about the effect
Speaker 1: on the House and Senate races and what might happen.
Speaker 3: I mean, you don't have to be a political consultant
Speaker 3: to know if we're if we're in a war and
Speaker 3: it's a non popular war, it's going to be good.
Speaker 2: For the Democrats. It just is. Yeah.
Speaker 3: You know, if it's a quick rip the mandate off,
Speaker 3: you can recover from that.
Speaker 2: But if if this.
Speaker 3: Is a long war with troops and spending billions of dollars,
Speaker 3: you know, with all the problems that Democrats have in
Speaker 3: their leadership, even they probably can't screw that up.
Speaker 2: Yeah.
Speaker 1: Yeah, Well I wanted to leave our discussion Kevin Burton,
Speaker 1: because you're a friend. I wanted to leave you with
Speaker 1: a with an empty net goal or a layup if
Speaker 1: it were to a nice easy one to end the conversation.
Speaker 1: Kevin Burton at Crosstown Consulting in Northern Kentucky.
Speaker 2: Thanks again, brother be.
Speaker 1: Will thank you for always all right, take care news
Speaker 1: on the way at about five, the weather continues. We
Speaker 1: got rain, rain and more rain, when will if we will,
Speaker 1: and maybe will we get a break?
Speaker 2: Who knows?
Speaker 1: Full forecast seconds away, And we'll continue to follow. What's
Speaker 1: happening in Iran right now and Texas is a really
Speaker 1: interesting indicator of how things may go in right now
Speaker 1: now again in a few days versus a few months.
Speaker 1: I think that is survival and probably what we should
Speaker 1: be doing at this point. If this thing drags out,
Speaker 1: and God forbid we start going a well, we need to.
Speaker 1: We need some expeditionary forces there, so they would call them.
Speaker 1: You wonder how many people who voted for Trump who
Speaker 1: continues the boredom but just simply turn their back on them.
Speaker 1: I know quite a few people fall into that category.
Speaker 1: A brief strike is fine, but dragging this thing out,
Speaker 1: you're just absolutely bearing yourself. Scott's Flan shows seven hundred W.
Speaker 2: Welton