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Speaker 1: To night, Michael Brown joins me here, the former FEMA

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Speaker 1: director of talk show host Michael Brown. Brownie, no, Brownie,

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Speaker 1: You're doing a heck of a job the weekend with

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Speaker 1: Michael Brown. Hey broadcasting life from Denver, Colorado. You've tuned

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Speaker 1: into the Weeklymouth. Michael Brown. Really glad to have you

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Speaker 1: joining the program today. You know, we have rules of

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Speaker 1: engagement with some roees that you have to follow if

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Speaker 1: you want to engage in the program. They're pretty easy.

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Speaker 1: If you want to send me a text mention, tell

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Speaker 1: me anything, to ask me anything on your message app

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Speaker 1: the numbers three three one zero three three three one

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Speaker 1: zero three, use the keyword micro Michael, and you can

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Speaker 1: tell me anything or ask me anything, and then do

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Speaker 1: me a favor and go follow me over on X.

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Speaker 1: On X it's at Michael Brown USA. On the others,

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Speaker 1: it's either Michael Brown or Michael D. Brown or whatever.

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Speaker 1: But you can find me on Facebook and Instagram also,

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Speaker 1: and I would appreciate the follows. And here's why. So

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Speaker 1: two things happen in the past twenty four hours that

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Speaker 1: take me back to my old days with President Bush.

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Speaker 1: And you know he and I, I mean, we got

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Speaker 1: along famously don't get me wrong, we absolutely got along famously.

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Speaker 1: But when everything kind of started going down the toilet

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Speaker 1: during Katrina, I really started to see a side of

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Speaker 1: him that I had. I mean, I han't seen it before,

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Speaker 1: but it was it didn't involve me, and it didn't

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Speaker 1: bother me, and I was busy doing what I was doing.

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Speaker 1: We were, you know, we were establishing in the Department

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Speaker 1: of Homeland Security, which to this day I still maintain

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Speaker 1: was a mistake, and we were reorganizing all these different

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Speaker 1: departments and agencies all, you know, kind of rearranging on

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Speaker 1: the chairs on the decks of the Titanic because Congress

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Speaker 1: had decided that it was imperative that post nine to

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Speaker 1: eleven we'd be seen doing something. So I'm doing that.

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Speaker 1: I'm also going through through a second Senate confirmation to

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Speaker 1: become the first Undersecretary of Homeland Security in the Department

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Speaker 1: of Homeland Security, And so it was just it was

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Speaker 1: just a wild time. And if it had been wild

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Speaker 1: from the very beginning, because when we when the President

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Speaker 1: took offs on January twentieth of two thousand and one,

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Speaker 1: little did we know that just you know, a mere

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Speaker 1: nine months later, we would start this global War on terror.

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Speaker 1: Prior to that, though, and of course we had the

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Speaker 1: death and the funeral of Dick Cheney this week. Vice

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Speaker 1: President Cheney's staff, Scooter Libby and David Anderson some others

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Speaker 1: had come to me and said, look, during the Clinton administration,

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Speaker 1: we have they had completely ignored all the COOP and

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Speaker 1: COGG programs. Now COOP and COG prams. COOP and COG

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Speaker 1: programs are all of the Black Ops programs. COOP stands

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Speaker 1: for Continuity of Operations, COGG COG stands for continuity of government.

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Speaker 1: And those are the programs by which, if you know,

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Speaker 1: we're involved in some you know, Thermo nuclear war, or

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Speaker 1: the leadership of the executive branch or the legislative branch

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Speaker 1: gets decapitated and suddenly were you know, without leadership for

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Speaker 1: a while. We go through all of these processes to

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Speaker 1: make sure that the federal government keeps functioning. And I

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Speaker 1: call them Black's Ops programs because they're they're very top secret.

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Speaker 1: The minutia of them I can't I can't describe to

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Speaker 1: you at all. I can only tell you that in generalities,

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Speaker 1: that it is designed to make certain that if foreign

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Speaker 1: adversaries attack us, and it's necessary to say relocate the

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Speaker 1: government outside Washington, d C. That we have the ability

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Speaker 1: to do that. And those programs have been in place

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Speaker 1: since even before the Cold War, post World War Two,

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Speaker 1: they were kind of in place, and then they really

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Speaker 1: started with I would say President Eisenhower. They started getting

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Speaker 1: serious about it, and each president built on it and

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Speaker 1: made them more and more resilient. The Clinton administration or

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Speaker 1: whatever reason, was more focused on other things and just

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Speaker 1: kind of let all the undisclosed locations kind of go

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Speaker 1: to crap. So we kind of had to rebuild and

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Speaker 1: remodel them, if you will. We had to remodel them.

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Speaker 1: And so that was one of the very first things

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Speaker 1: that Vice President Cheney's was given in his portfolio, and

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Speaker 1: that you know, rolls downhill, and a lot of that

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Speaker 1: rolls into the lap of me at FEMA. It was

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Speaker 1: just an incredibly busy time and the president had been

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Speaker 1: elected on the basis of about five hundred and thirty

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Speaker 1: five votes out of Florida. It was one of the

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Speaker 1: tightest elections in US history. Ended up being decided by

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Speaker 1: the US Supreme Court only in the sense that I mean,

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Speaker 1: they didn't side the election, but they decided that Florida

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Speaker 1: was violating the Constitution and violating their own laws by

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Speaker 1: continuing these recounts, and they needed to stop the recounts.

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Speaker 1: And stopping the recounts meant that Bush one, because he

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Speaker 1: was still ahead by some five hundred votes. It vary

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Speaker 1: between three hundred and five hundred votes. And I might

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Speaker 1: at some point go back and talk about some of

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Speaker 1: the things that occurred down in Florida during that time,

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Speaker 1: but I just want to establish that President Bush was

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Speaker 1: not the conservative or the America first kind of president

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Speaker 1: that we see in Donald Trump. I know medieval one,

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Speaker 1: will duh? We know that? Well? At when was this yesterday?

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Speaker 1: At four h five pm? I didn't see it until

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Speaker 1: this morning yesterday at four or five pm. The George W.

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Speaker 1: Bush Presidential Center on X posted the following post. They write,

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Speaker 1: US and Russian officials have reportedly drafted a twenty eight

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Speaker 1: point peace plan meant to end the war Russia started

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Speaker 1: in Ukraine. In a recent article, Bush Institute Executive director

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Speaker 1: of David J. Kramer writes, quote, the United States should

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Speaker 1: not be discussing the future of US Russian relations while

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Speaker 1: Russian missiles and drones continued to wreak on Ukraine, killing

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Speaker 1: innocent civilians and trying to freeze and force the population

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Speaker 1: into submission with winter coming. The twenty eight point plan

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Speaker 1: should be dropped and replaced with a simple one point plan,

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Speaker 1: Russia get out of Ukraine. And of course then there's

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Speaker 1: a link to the story, and obviously the story expands

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Speaker 1: upon that, But even when you go to the story,

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Speaker 1: the bottom line is it boils down to that one

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Speaker 1: simple sentence, Russia get out of Ukraine. Now, when I

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Speaker 1: read that this morning, it really drove me crazy, because

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Speaker 1: whether people agree with what the representative for President Bush

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Speaker 1: is saying or not is immaterial to me. Instead, I

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Speaker 1: would like for them to answer a very simple question.

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Speaker 1: If your position is quote Russia get out of Ukraine,

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Speaker 1: close quote, please explain how you plan to accomplish that. Remember,

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Speaker 1: their statement is that all Donald Trump and the EU

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Speaker 1: and the European Union and all the allies in Western civilization,

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Speaker 1: I guess should just tell Russia to get out of Ukraine.

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Speaker 1: Now we know that Putin is just not going to

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Speaker 1: do that. So my real serious and it's a serious question.

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Speaker 1: If you're going to post this, then please explain to

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Speaker 1: me how you plan to accomplish that. Because you can

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Speaker 1: post it, and you can make all of these claims about,

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Speaker 1: you know, we need to support Ukraine, or we need

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Speaker 1: to strengthen NATO, or we need to do this or that,

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Speaker 1: And don't get me wrong, all those are valid issues.

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Speaker 1: But for a former president or his staff at his

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Speaker 1: library to simply post that, hey, this twenty eight point

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Speaker 1: plan over here is no good and what you should

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Speaker 1: do is just have one simple plan that says, Russia

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Speaker 1: get out of Ukraine. Russia get out of Ukraine. Okay,

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Speaker 1: if that is your plan, then please explain to me

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Speaker 1: how you plan to accomplish that. So let's walk through

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Speaker 1: what the twenty eight point plan is, and then let's

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Speaker 1: think about if the objective is solely to just push

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Speaker 1: push Russia out of Ukraine, then how would you accomplish that?

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Speaker 1: And then I want you once we walk through all

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Speaker 1: of that, I want you to think to yourselves, is

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Speaker 1: that what I really want to do? It's the weekend

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Speaker 1: with Michael Brown. Don't forget to tech me three three

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Speaker 1: one zero three keyword micro Mike, go follow me on

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Speaker 1: X at Michael Brown USA. Let's walk through this plan

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Speaker 1: and start to answer the question. Next. Welcome back to

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Speaker 1: the weekend with Michael Brown, glad to have you with me.

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Speaker 1: So I've gotten several text messages people telling me that

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Speaker 1: you're listening on the app and you're you're not getting

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Speaker 1: the programming, or you're listening on the Blaze Radio Network

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Speaker 1: app and you're not getting programming. We have three hundred

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Speaker 1: and fifty stations, and so we can't We have no control

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Speaker 1: over the app and particularly the Blaze app and whether

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Speaker 1: those are working or transmitting or not. So my suggestion

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Speaker 1: to you always is, if you're listening on the iHeart app,

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Speaker 1: for example, and the station that you were listening to

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Speaker 1: is dead air are not working for some reason, we

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Speaker 1: as at least in Los Angeles where the program. The

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Speaker 1: program originates in Denver and then it is syndicated out

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Speaker 1: of Los Angeles now of Sherman Oaks. And if you

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Speaker 1: can't get anything on a particular station that you're listening

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Speaker 1: to on the app, there are more than three hundred

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Speaker 1: and fifty other stations that you can go to on

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Speaker 1: the app and probably find it airing there. So, for example,

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Speaker 1: if you are listening to it on the Denver station

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Speaker 1: Freedom ninety three seven, there may be there may be

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Speaker 1: a problem down in Denver. But you know, I can't

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Speaker 1: go down and do anything about that. It's Saturday, and

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Speaker 1: the guys in Los Angeles can't do anything about what's

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Speaker 1: going on in Denver. So these things happen. You know,

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Speaker 1: you have apps all the time that don't work. You know,

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Speaker 1: I forget what app I was dealing with this past week,

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Speaker 1: and oh it was my serious XM app, And all

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Speaker 1: of a sudden it was like, oh, we don't recognize

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Speaker 1: any of your credentials. Now to spend like twenty minutes,

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Speaker 1: you know, finally getting into work right again. It's just

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Speaker 1: maddening sometimes, But that's my congestion. If you're listening on

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Speaker 1: the Blaze, or you're listening somewhere else and you're not

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Speaker 1: getting it, then try somewhere else. That's the way to do.

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Speaker 1: Oh and we just checked and it is working on freedom.

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Speaker 1: So but we can't check three hundred and fifty days

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Speaker 1: just to see which one's working or not working. Go

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Speaker 1: back to this proposal. Now, we've not seen the actual

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Speaker 1: proposal yet to end the war in Ukraine, but the

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Speaker 1: details had been leaked, and the details indicate that the

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Speaker 1: draft was probably developed collaboratively between both American and Russian

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Speaker 1: officials and then presented to the Ukrainian leadership in Kiev

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Speaker 1: and then circulated among the European capitals. So they sat

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Speaker 1: down with Russia first, then they sent it to Zelensky

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Speaker 1: in Kiev, and then they sent it to NATO and

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Speaker 1: the EU and some other allies and said, look at this,

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Speaker 1: and you know, let's start talking. The major elems include

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Speaker 1: several things. First is the confirmation of Ukraine's sovereignty, though

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Speaker 1: that does come with limitations. It also includes a formal

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Speaker 1: recognition of Crimea, Luhansk and Dunesque as de facto Russian territories,

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Speaker 1: including that recognition by the United States and Europe. Now,

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Speaker 1: let's be honest, they've occupied Crimea since twenty fourteen. What

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Speaker 1: we're going to push them out after eleven years now?

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Speaker 1: I don't think so. So you see that it already

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Speaker 1: causes me to think this is a proposal dealing with reality. Now,

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Speaker 1: we may not like the reality. I don't like the

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Speaker 1: idea that when Obama was president that Russia thought they

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Speaker 1: could just take over Crimea and now occupy it, and

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Speaker 1: now eleven years later, we're supposed to say, oh, nope,

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Speaker 1: bad boys, get out again. I live in the real world,

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Speaker 1: not in the fantasy world that I think a lot

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Speaker 1: of people that you know, somehow think that we should

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Speaker 1: live in. The third point I would add is their

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Speaker 1: additional Ukrainian land concessions, including in the eastern don Bass

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Speaker 1: region and the affecting maintenance of boundaries for Cissan and

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Speaker 1: Zaparizia Okay land concessions I know, and Simolos land concessions

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Speaker 1: are lands that are currently occupied by Russian military. And

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Speaker 1: it also includes some additional land in those same regions

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Speaker 1: in the don Bass and others that are not currently

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Speaker 1: occupied by Russian but would become kind of de facto

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Speaker 1: de militarized zones. Now it's not clear who's going to

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Speaker 1: maintain that de militarization, whether that's going to be NATO

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Speaker 1: or you know, European forces, I don't know. It includes

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Speaker 1: a non aggression pact between Ukraine, Russia and Europe that's

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Speaker 1: trying to settle the ambiguities of the last thirty years

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Speaker 1: and to try to bar future Russian expansion into the

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Speaker 1: neighboring countries. Now, in exchange for that, NATO would pledge

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Speaker 1: not to expand further itself, and Ukraine would agree to

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Speaker 1: never seek NATO membership. That's been a big sticking point.

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Speaker 1: The Ukrainian military would have to be reduced in size,

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Speaker 1: tapping its armed forces at around six hundred thousand, which

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Speaker 1: is down from the roughly nine hundred thousand to day,

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Speaker 1: so about a third reduction in the Ukrainian military, and

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Speaker 1: then limits would also be placed on some of the weaponry,

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Speaker 1: notably excluding long range missiles. The next point is there

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Speaker 1: would be dialogue. Oh, you always have dialogue, So dialogue

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Speaker 1: between NATO and Russia that would be mediated by the

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Speaker 1: United States on European security arrangements and future cooperation between Europe,

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Speaker 1: Ukraine and Europe and Russia. There would be this establishment

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Speaker 1: of a neutral buffer zone in the Donetsk and the

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Speaker 1: removal of Ukrainian forces from Russian controlled sectors in that

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Speaker 1: particular area. There would be one hundred billion dollars in

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Speaker 1: unfrozen European assets to support Ukrainian reconstruction, and that reconstruction

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Speaker 1: would be contingent upon Ukraine Ukraine's compliance with this agreement.

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Speaker 1: There would be lifting of sanctions against Russia and Russia's allies,

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Speaker 1: and that would enable their re entry into the global

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Speaker 1: economy and re entry back into the World Trade Organization

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Speaker 1: and start you know, buying and selling goods and services

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Speaker 1: and allow imports and exports and everything else. And then

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Speaker 1: of course there would be a new Peace Council, again

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Speaker 1: led by Donald Trump, and that would be tasked with

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Speaker 1: monitoring compliance and imposing sanctions for any violations. So I

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Speaker 1: made a quick list of pros and cons, because obviously

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Speaker 1: there's some good things and some bad things. Before I

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Speaker 1: get to the pros and cons, I want you to

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Speaker 1: think for just a moment everything that I just outline

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Speaker 1: for you. Does that take Russia out of Ukraine? No,

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Speaker 1: it doesn't. So we still have answered the question that

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Speaker 1: i'd asked President Bush on X and ask his representative,

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Speaker 1: so explain how you would do that. But I do

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Speaker 1: have a I at least have one plan on the table,

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Speaker 1: and it may be to many people one sided, and

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Speaker 1: to other people it might not be one sided enough.

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Speaker 1: And to some people it might be that you're selling

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Speaker 1: out Ukraine or that you're not doing enough to protect

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Speaker 1: Ukrainian sovereignty. NATO has to agree to this, the EU

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Speaker 1: has to agree to it. So it's what I would

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Speaker 1: consider to be. It's kind of like before you're into

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Speaker 1: a contract with somebody, you know, maybe say for an

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Speaker 1: acquisition to some property, or you're going to do a

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Speaker 1: merger of some sort. You might instead enter into a

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Speaker 1: letter of intent or a memorandumum understanding, an l OI

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Speaker 1: letter of intent or an MoU a memoranda of memorandum

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Speaker 1: of understanding. And that's kind of what this strikes me

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Speaker 1: as as kind of let's put this on the table.

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Speaker 1: We know that you know, it may be, it may

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Speaker 1: appear to be one sided, but we think this is

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Speaker 1: a doable deal because we work this out with the

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Speaker 1: Russians first, because quite honestly, they're the ones that have

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Speaker 1: the most power right now. They're the ones that are

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Speaker 1: in the driver's seat, and you have to accept that

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Speaker 1: if you're going to be realistic about how do you

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Speaker 1: end this conflict. So let's go to the pros and

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Speaker 1: cons next, and then let's see if we ever get

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Speaker 1: an answer about what would it take to quote Russia

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Speaker 1: get out of Ukraine. I'll be right back tonight. Michael

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Speaker 1: Brown joins me here, the former FEMA director of talk

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Speaker 1: show host Michael Brown. Brownie, No, Brownie, You're doing a

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Speaker 1: heck of a job. The Weekend with Michael Brown Welcome

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Speaker 1: back to the Weekend with Michael Brown. Glad to have

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Speaker 1: you with me. I appreciate you tuning in. I hope

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Speaker 1: if you're having trouble getting through on your app or

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Speaker 1: the Blaze network, that you've got it resolved. Let's get back.

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Speaker 1: We're talking. We're talking about a post that was made

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Speaker 1: to x formerly Twitter by the Bush Library that just

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Speaker 1: kind of irritated me. And it irritated me because everybody

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Speaker 1: thinks it's so simple. Hey, the peace plan, the ceasefire plan,

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Speaker 1: the treaty, the uh armistice, whatever you want to call

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Speaker 1: this proposal that the Trump administration has put out in

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Speaker 1: collaboration with the Russians about how to end the war

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Speaker 1: in Ukraine is well, it favors Russia too much, and

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Speaker 1: that may not be true. But their response was the

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Speaker 1: peace plan should just be one sentence, Russia get out

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Speaker 1: of Ukraine. And I just thought, how naive, how naive,

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Speaker 1: and how you represent a former president, in fact, the

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Speaker 1: former president that was involved in some you know, wartime activities,

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Speaker 1: and your response after Afghanistan and Iraq and everything else,

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Speaker 1: is to tell the Rouchies, hey, just get out. It's

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Speaker 1: just not realistic and it furthers the idea that somehow

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Speaker 1: we can just what if you're thinking ahead at all

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Speaker 1: about how would you force Russia out of Ukraine, then

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Speaker 1: you know there ought to be some doubts about whether

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Speaker 1: or not we're ready to engage in that kind of activity.

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Speaker 1: But in the last segment I went through the different

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Speaker 1: components of this agreement that's been leaked. So let's go

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Speaker 1: through the pros and cons real quickly. The ceasefire would

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Speaker 1: immediately stop the bloodshed and the combat. So the six

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Speaker 1: thousand people that are dying, however often they're dying, whether

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Speaker 1: it's a weak or a month, it's just too many

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Speaker 1: people on both sides, that would stop. But the Khan

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Speaker 1: is that it forces Ukraine to surrender significant territory, some

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Speaker 1: which Russia occupies and a little bit of which Russia

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Speaker 1: does not occupy. On the pro side, it promises security

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Speaker 1: guarantees for Ukraine, which they obviously need because of where

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Speaker 1: they're in the geopolitical world and geographically where they're located.

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Speaker 1: They obviously need some security agreements to keep the aggressive

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Speaker 1: Russians at bay. But it excludes on the Khan side,

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Speaker 1: it excludes natal membership, so it leaves Ukraine somewhat vulnerable. Again,

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Speaker 1: going back to the pro it facilitates the reconstruction with

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Speaker 1: Western funds that are currently available. So we're going to

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Speaker 1: unfreeze a bunch of assets and we're going to use

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Speaker 1: those assets to rebuild because Russia has really destroyed and

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Speaker 1: as continuing as we speak, to destroy a lot of

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Speaker 1: the infrastructure that Ukraine needs to recover their economy and

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Speaker 1: start growing and be engaged in world affairs again. But

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Speaker 1: also on the negative side, it reduces Ukrainian military capacity dramatically. Okay,

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Speaker 1: I agree it does, but there are security guarantees that

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Speaker 1: may offset that. Then it it could on the positive side,

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Speaker 1: it could stabilize wider European security environment. It may keep

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Speaker 1: Russia from any idea of expanding into Poland or Moldova

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Speaker 1: or any of the other Eastern europe In countries. But

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Speaker 1: on the negative side, it does reward Russia for their

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Speaker 1: aggression and it does set a precedent. Again, going to

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Speaker 1: the positive, it lifts some of these sanctions and it

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Speaker 1: encourages economic recovery for everybody on both sides of this conflict.

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Speaker 1: But on the negative side, it does to some degree

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Speaker 1: weaken Western deterrence of the Western deterrence posture in Eastern Europe.

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Speaker 1: Russia will have learned they could have got They got

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Speaker 1: by with a little bit of what they were trying

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Speaker 1: to do. You've fed the cap one time too many again.

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Speaker 1: On the positive side, it establishes international monitoring, which is

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Speaker 1: going to be needed. They're going to need to be

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Speaker 1: NATO or some forces, some neutral forces to keep Russia

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Speaker 1: from further expansion. On the negative side, this faces really

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Speaker 1: strong opposition from Ukraine and Ukraine's allies. So those are

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Speaker 1: the pros and cons. But if you thought about what

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Speaker 1: they wrote on X, Russia get out of Ukraine, Accomplishing

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Speaker 1: a full Russian withdrawal would require far more aggressive and

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Speaker 1: coordinated military and diplomatic action than the current multilateral efforts permit.

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Speaker 1: And it may require much more military involvement than Americans

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Speaker 1: are willing to put up with. I don't know. I

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Speaker 1: think it leads to the potential for a much wider

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Speaker 1: war than what we're currently seeing. Direct NATO intervention seems

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Speaker 1: to me to be the number one way that you

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Speaker 1: would push Russia out of Ukraine. Now, who's the largest

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Speaker 1: contributor to NATO? The United States military and American taxpayers,

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Speaker 1: So only large scale participation by NATO with our air superiority,

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Speaker 1: all of our great logistics are obviously very good intelligence

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Speaker 1: that could enable Ukraine to launch an effective counteroffensive so

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Speaker 1: they can reclaim that occupied territory. But that's direct intervention.

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Speaker 1: That's a direct conflict between NATO and Russia. And because

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Speaker 1: it's NATO, that's a direct military conflict between the United

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Speaker 1: States and Russia. Are you ready for that? The other

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Speaker 1: thing we would have to do is we would have

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Speaker 1: to target Russian supply lines and we would have to

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Speaker 1: command infrastructure. Now, in order to do that, you're going

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Speaker 1: to have to have intensive air and missile campaigns. They

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Speaker 1: would have to focus on cutting off all the Russian

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Speaker 1: resupply routes. We would have to destroy their am depots,

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Speaker 1: and we would have to isolate Russian frontline positions. In

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Speaker 1: other wards, cut those front lines off from all of

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Speaker 1: their supply and logistics that are behind them that keep

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Speaker 1: them fighting. So we're gonna have to squeeze them off.

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Speaker 1: We're gonna have to enhance Ukrainian's capabilities. We're gonna have

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Speaker 1: to lift all the Western arm restrictions. We're gonna have

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Speaker 1: to provide better precision guided weapons, drones, in real time intelligence.

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Speaker 1: That's gonna be absolutely essential to clawing back loss territory.

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Speaker 1: We're gonna have to engage in economic and cyber warfare

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Speaker 1: with Russia. We're gonna have to ramp up sanctions on

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Speaker 1: Russia and expand our digital warfare, which could undermine Russian

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Speaker 1: operational capacity and their will to continue this conflict. Do

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Speaker 1: we really want to do that? I don't know. I'm

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Speaker 1: just I'm throwing this out because the you know, President

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Speaker 1: Bush and all of his supposed expertise in foreign affairs

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Speaker 1: says that what we ought to do is just tell

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Speaker 1: Russia to get out, and I just want to know, Okay,

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Speaker 1: then how how are you going to do that? And

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Speaker 1: I think the final thing we need to consider is

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Speaker 1: we would have to isolate Russia politically, sustain international pressure.

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Speaker 1: You'd have to have UN resolutions that's probably not going

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Speaker 1: to happen through the Unsecurity Council. You'd need diplomatic isolation,

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Speaker 1: and you'd have to prosecute, you know, Vladimir Putin or

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Speaker 1: some of his defense ministers or others for war crimes,

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Speaker 1: which could further erode Russian legitimacy and access to their

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Speaker 1: resources and may cause internal conflict which might lead to

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Speaker 1: a civil war inside Russia. And I know some people

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Speaker 1: might look at that and say that's a great thing,

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Speaker 1: but again, like any civil war, there's no guarantee that

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Speaker 1: the outcome of that civil war means a freeer Russia

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Speaker 1: or free and open elections. So the Trump proposal, as

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Speaker 1: leaked is getting this wide criticism as a default mapitulation

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Speaker 1: to Moscow's demands, and I think that people are looking

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Speaker 1: at it and saying it would almost certainly fail to

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Speaker 1: end the war on terms that are acceptable to either

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Speaker 1: Kiev or to Europe and enforcing rush out militarily to

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Speaker 1: do that. This is going to demand far greater Western

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Speaker 1: reserve and a really strong willingness to accept some serious

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Speaker 1: escalation risks. So I ask you, is that what you want?

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Speaker 1: I don't know what the answer to it is. I

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Speaker 1: wish I could tell you I'd like to see the

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Speaker 1: war stop. But again I live in the real world,

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Speaker 1: and I recognize that if if we take President Bush's

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Speaker 1: advice on X and I wish you'd you know whether

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Speaker 1: he consulted with this executive director that posted this or not.

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Speaker 1: I don't know, but the executive director for the Bush

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Speaker 1: Center speaks on behalf of President George W. Bush. So

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Speaker 1: if your resolution to this conflict is to push Russia out, wow,

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Speaker 1: how are you going to do that? When is the

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Speaker 1: price of peace ever fair? Because war doesn't determine who

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Speaker 1: is right, As Bertrand Russell wisely observed one time, war

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Speaker 1: doesn't determine who is right. It only tells us who

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Speaker 1: is left. And very often these conflicts come down to

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Speaker 1: a numbers game. And on the numbers, Ukraine is losing,

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Speaker 1: and despite losing more soldiers, Russia is winning on the battlefield,

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Speaker 1: and unlike Ukraine has even begun to really do mass

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Speaker 1: mobilization yet. So Donald Trump's proposed peace deal is not

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Speaker 1: going to turn the clock back in Ukraine's borders. It's

431
00:28:52,240 --> 00:28:55,160
Speaker 1: not going to accompissate Ukraine for Russian aggression in war crimes.

432
00:28:55,280 --> 00:28:57,720
Speaker 1: It's not even going to punish Putin personally for starting

433
00:28:57,840 --> 00:29:01,920
Speaker 1: this horrible conflict to begin with. If anything, this deal

434
00:29:02,600 --> 00:29:07,640
Speaker 1: probably in many eyes, rewards Vladimir Putin. But Trump hopes

435
00:29:07,640 --> 00:29:10,360
Speaker 1: his proposal will draw a line in the sand and

436
00:29:10,360 --> 00:29:14,560
Speaker 1: at least stop their relentless bloodshed. But is that a

437
00:29:14,600 --> 00:29:19,480
Speaker 1: red line that Zelenski is prepared to sign up to.

438
00:29:21,200 --> 00:29:24,640
Speaker 1: He addressed his nation Friday night and said this was

439
00:29:24,680 --> 00:29:27,360
Speaker 1: one of the most difficult moments in our history and

440
00:29:27,400 --> 00:29:30,600
Speaker 1: that the choice was quote a life without freedom, dignity,

441
00:29:30,640 --> 00:29:33,719
Speaker 1: and justice while being expected to trust someone who has

442
00:29:33,760 --> 00:29:38,680
Speaker 1: already attacked us. And I'm not sure that's entirely true,

443
00:29:39,240 --> 00:29:42,880
Speaker 1: but if his position, that might be exactly what I

444
00:29:42,920 --> 00:29:48,160
Speaker 1: would say too, because I think Zelensky is risking a

445
00:29:48,280 --> 00:29:53,160
Speaker 1: coup or perhaps civil war inside Ukraine. I'll be right back.

446
00:30:00,200 --> 00:30:02,000
Speaker 1: Welcome back to the weekend with Michael Brown. Glad to

447
00:30:02,040 --> 00:30:04,960
Speaker 1: have you with me. We're talking about this proposed peace

448
00:30:05,000 --> 00:30:11,160
Speaker 1: agreement between Russia, Ukraine, and technically the United States and NATO. Now,

449
00:30:11,160 --> 00:30:15,040
Speaker 1: I know it's a really heavy topic for a weekend,

450
00:30:15,520 --> 00:30:18,000
Speaker 1: and I know it's not the usual you know, political

451
00:30:18,000 --> 00:30:20,200
Speaker 1: stuff this and that, or the cultural stuff this and that,

452
00:30:20,800 --> 00:30:24,640
Speaker 1: but I really a this is real world stuff, and

453
00:30:24,680 --> 00:30:27,200
Speaker 1: it's real world stuff that the American people have to

454
00:30:27,240 --> 00:30:31,040
Speaker 1: realize that if we're one of two things is going

455
00:30:31,080 --> 00:30:34,800
Speaker 1: to happen. Either this war is going to continue the

456
00:30:34,840 --> 00:30:38,840
Speaker 1: way it is a war of attrition, which means that

457
00:30:39,200 --> 00:30:42,160
Speaker 1: over time, and I don't know whether that is you know,

458
00:30:42,360 --> 00:30:44,680
Speaker 1: next spring because not much will happen during the winter

459
00:30:44,760 --> 00:30:48,240
Speaker 1: because they just it's a it's really a ground war,

460
00:30:49,320 --> 00:30:52,280
Speaker 1: although Russia is using a lot of drones and missiles

461
00:30:52,320 --> 00:30:56,520
Speaker 1: to take out the utilities and the infrastructure around Kiev

462
00:30:56,560 --> 00:30:59,760
Speaker 1: and the other cities, so that you know, the Ukrainian

463
00:30:59,760 --> 00:31:03,560
Speaker 1: peaceeople will you know, freeze during the winter and they'll

464
00:31:03,600 --> 00:31:05,920
Speaker 1: they'll lack food and shelter and they'll just give up.

465
00:31:07,080 --> 00:31:10,760
Speaker 1: So that's what's that's what's going on right now. And

466
00:31:11,000 --> 00:31:15,440
Speaker 1: of course we are supplying some long range missiles but

467
00:31:15,480 --> 00:31:19,959
Speaker 1: putting limitations on those, and we're supplying drones. So and

468
00:31:20,000 --> 00:31:23,120
Speaker 1: they have they've grown, They've blown up some AMMO depots

469
00:31:23,120 --> 00:31:26,440
Speaker 1: and some you know, refineries in other places. But it's

470
00:31:26,440 --> 00:31:30,400
Speaker 1: still a war of attrition. Sitting everything else aside is

471
00:31:30,400 --> 00:31:35,080
Speaker 1: to a war of attrition. And the Ukrainian people, while

472
00:31:35,120 --> 00:31:38,640
Speaker 1: they are absolutely noble and how they have fought so far,

473
00:31:40,360 --> 00:31:43,880
Speaker 1: a crystal ball says they're on the losing side, absent

474
00:31:44,640 --> 00:31:50,080
Speaker 1: some you know, either internal to Russia, disruption of their leadership.

475
00:31:50,440 --> 00:31:53,320
Speaker 1: In other words, Putin gets replaced by somebody. You know,

476
00:31:53,360 --> 00:31:56,680
Speaker 1: there's an internal revolution, there's there's a coup of some

477
00:31:56,720 --> 00:32:01,480
Speaker 1: sort inside the Kremlin and put is replaced by someone

478
00:32:01,520 --> 00:32:04,080
Speaker 1: who wants to end the war. Well, I don't put

479
00:32:04,080 --> 00:32:07,360
Speaker 1: a lot of hope in that. Or the war of

480
00:32:07,360 --> 00:32:11,840
Speaker 1: attrition continues and Russia gets even more aggressive and they

481
00:32:11,880 --> 00:32:16,280
Speaker 1: eventually take over the entire Ukraine. They eventually the Ukrainian people.

482
00:32:16,520 --> 00:32:19,720
Speaker 1: There will be a coups. Dzelensky will face a coup internally,

483
00:32:21,280 --> 00:32:23,960
Speaker 1: or he faces you know that the army will turn

484
00:32:24,000 --> 00:32:26,640
Speaker 1: on him. Any number of things can happen inside Ukraine.

485
00:32:29,240 --> 00:32:33,000
Speaker 1: Or and this is what really people don't think beyond

486
00:32:33,080 --> 00:32:38,240
Speaker 1: their noses about. Is people like George Bush and others,

487
00:32:39,000 --> 00:32:41,280
Speaker 1: all these neo Khans are saying, oh, but we've got

488
00:32:41,320 --> 00:32:44,480
Speaker 1: to stop at all costs. Well, if you're going to

489
00:32:44,560 --> 00:32:48,400
Speaker 1: truly push Russia out, as I indicated, I believe that

490
00:32:48,520 --> 00:32:53,400
Speaker 1: takes a lot of direct involvement between the United States

491
00:32:53,440 --> 00:32:56,920
Speaker 1: and NATO in a direct conflict against the Russians to

492
00:32:56,960 --> 00:33:00,479
Speaker 1: push them out. And I don't know that's what we

493
00:33:00,520 --> 00:33:03,240
Speaker 1: want to do. I have to say that my gut

494
00:33:03,240 --> 00:33:07,560
Speaker 1: reaction is I don't really want that because a direct

495
00:33:07,800 --> 00:33:12,440
Speaker 1: conflict in Europe, because remember this is taking place in

496
00:33:12,480 --> 00:33:18,600
Speaker 1: Europe between NATO, the United States and Russia easily spills

497
00:33:18,680 --> 00:33:22,120
Speaker 1: over into because if you think like Putin does, Putin

498
00:33:22,160 --> 00:33:25,920
Speaker 1: will say, okay, game on, I want more than Ukraine.

499
00:33:25,920 --> 00:33:30,000
Speaker 1: I'll take Ukraine, I'll take Poland, I'll take Moldova. I'll

500
00:33:30,000 --> 00:33:33,080
Speaker 1: take all these other little countries, these it used to

501
00:33:33,120 --> 00:33:36,560
Speaker 1: be satellite countries of the old Soviet Union. I'll just

502
00:33:36,800 --> 00:33:39,400
Speaker 1: go full bore, and the next thing you know, you're

503
00:33:39,400 --> 00:33:43,280
Speaker 1: in World War three and China sits back and just watches.

504
00:33:44,040 --> 00:33:46,760
Speaker 1: He says, well, we'll let these two just wipe themselves

505
00:33:46,760 --> 00:33:50,080
Speaker 1: out and then we'll take over the world. You see

506
00:33:50,120 --> 00:33:58,040
Speaker 1: how just cascades into a even worsening situation. And I

507
00:33:58,240 --> 00:34:01,320
Speaker 1: just find it naive on the part of the Bush

508
00:34:01,480 --> 00:34:04,480
Speaker 1: Center to say, well, the solution is just to push

509
00:34:04,840 --> 00:34:10,000
Speaker 1: Russia out. Now, I will say this, at least Zelensky

510
00:34:10,040 --> 00:34:12,640
Speaker 1: is at least engaging with the process, and he's going

511
00:34:12,680 --> 00:34:16,920
Speaker 1: to talk to Trump later this coming week. Yet, however

512
00:34:17,040 --> 00:34:19,719
Speaker 1: tough his talks with Trump are, they're going to be

513
00:34:20,040 --> 00:34:23,719
Speaker 1: far easier than the conversations that Zelensky will have to

514
00:34:23,719 --> 00:34:27,280
Speaker 1: have with his own country and within his own parliament.

515
00:34:28,400 --> 00:34:31,200
Speaker 1: It's hard, if not impossible, to find a single voice

516
00:34:31,200 --> 00:34:34,560
Speaker 1: in Ukraine that backs the peace plan in this current

517
00:34:34,680 --> 00:34:39,040
Speaker 1: form or even in a diluted form. A source post

518
00:34:39,680 --> 00:34:45,440
Speaker 1: to Zelensky said that the existing plan fractures the country.

519
00:34:46,239 --> 00:34:48,479
Speaker 1: It's a stupid decision, this person said. If he doesn't

520
00:34:48,560 --> 00:34:51,600
Speaker 1: change it, he will lose the party. Local governments might

521
00:34:51,600 --> 00:34:53,920
Speaker 1: see this deal as a betrayal. This is not a

522
00:34:53,960 --> 00:34:56,640
Speaker 1: good deal and we do not recognize it. They could

523
00:34:56,680 --> 00:35:00,920
Speaker 1: declare themselves as separate entities. While other parts may respect

524
00:35:00,960 --> 00:35:03,160
Speaker 1: the deal, there will be a lot of violence during

525
00:35:03,160 --> 00:35:09,480
Speaker 1: that process. In other words, Ukraine itself may implode and

526
00:35:09,560 --> 00:35:16,080
Speaker 1: others in the Ukrainian parliament agree Ivana and I sorry,

527
00:35:16,120 --> 00:35:18,880
Speaker 1: I'm not trying to purposely basterdize the name, but Avana

528
00:35:19,400 --> 00:35:22,200
Speaker 1: columps Dysantsky or something, who is a deputy in the

529
00:35:22,239 --> 00:35:27,080
Speaker 1: opposition European Solidarity Party says the lives of the people

530
00:35:27,120 --> 00:35:28,600
Speaker 1: who live in the areas that we have to give

531
00:35:28,640 --> 00:35:31,239
Speaker 1: away will be ruined, their culture of the religion. They

532
00:35:31,239 --> 00:35:33,960
Speaker 1: face torture and deportation to Russia, where they will be

533
00:35:33,960 --> 00:35:36,799
Speaker 1: forced to join the military and fight against Ukraine. This

534
00:35:36,880 --> 00:35:39,480
Speaker 1: deal shows that might is right. It will be impossible

535
00:35:39,520 --> 00:35:44,160
Speaker 1: to ratify and I understand the chief among their concerns

536
00:35:44,520 --> 00:35:48,520
Speaker 1: is how the Ukrainian military might react to a bad deal,

537
00:35:49,040 --> 00:35:52,120
Speaker 1: because I think it should be feared that soldiers who

538
00:35:52,160 --> 00:35:55,319
Speaker 1: have lost friends in hard fought battles over land that

539
00:35:55,320 --> 00:35:58,759
Speaker 1: they're now being told to hand back, they might take

540
00:35:58,840 --> 00:36:02,080
Speaker 1: matters into their own hands. They could even be prepared

541
00:36:02,080 --> 00:36:06,920
Speaker 1: to stage a military coup. This is just a horrible

542
00:36:06,960 --> 00:36:11,759
Speaker 1: situation and there is no easy or clean path out

543
00:36:11,800 --> 00:36:16,240
Speaker 1: of this situation, which why I find it incredibly naive

544
00:36:16,760 --> 00:36:20,400
Speaker 1: for Bush and his minions to say, just tell Russia

545
00:36:20,440 --> 00:36:22,360
Speaker 1: to get out. And as somebody said on the text line,

546
00:36:22,520 --> 00:36:25,319
Speaker 1: is like Biden, you know, telling people when he was

547
00:36:25,400 --> 00:36:29,200
Speaker 1: opening the borders don't, or telling Russia when they were

548
00:36:29,200 --> 00:36:36,400
Speaker 1: starting the invasion don't. Meaningless, totally meaningless. So I just

549
00:36:36,400 --> 00:36:38,239
Speaker 1: want you to be aware that this is what's going

550
00:36:38,280 --> 00:36:44,040
Speaker 1: on internationally and we could be drawn into an international conflict.

551
00:36:45,520 --> 00:36:49,560
Speaker 1: I think Trump's trying to avoid that, but will people

552
00:36:49,560 --> 00:36:53,160
Speaker 1: who support Ukraine stand behind him? Who knows, I'll be

553
00:36:53,239 --> 00:36:53,640
Speaker 1: right back