1 00:00:02,600 --> 00:00:05,440 Speaker 1: Eighth five Here a fifty buck air CD talk station. 2 00:00:07,400 --> 00:00:09,760 Speaker 1: Very happy Monday too you It made always great at 3 00:00:09,760 --> 00:00:13,840 Speaker 1: this time of Monday morning. Ato five Money Monday. Brian James, 4 00:00:13,880 --> 00:00:16,800 Speaker 1: Brian James, Smallworth financial financial planner. He is, and get 5 00:00:16,800 --> 00:00:18,560 Speaker 1: the break down all the topics that are important to 6 00:00:18,640 --> 00:00:23,360 Speaker 1: maybe our respective retirement futures. Brian James. Welcome back to 7 00:00:23,400 --> 00:00:25,200 Speaker 1: my friends. Good to have you back on as always. 8 00:00:25,560 --> 00:00:28,120 Speaker 2: Thank you, mister Thomas. Appreciate the chance to spend the 9 00:00:28,120 --> 00:00:29,240 Speaker 2: morning with you and your listeners. 10 00:00:29,360 --> 00:00:31,360 Speaker 1: And it's good to do that because you give us 11 00:00:31,360 --> 00:00:33,360 Speaker 1: some great advice. Well, let's start with one of the 12 00:00:33,400 --> 00:00:36,800 Speaker 1: tragedies of war, the economic repercussions, and global they are. 13 00:00:36,840 --> 00:00:38,920 Speaker 1: In this particular case, of course, with the straight of 14 00:00:38,920 --> 00:00:41,240 Speaker 1: horror moves shut down, we all found out how damn 15 00:00:41,240 --> 00:00:43,600 Speaker 1: critical that little chunk of real estate is to the 16 00:00:43,760 --> 00:00:46,760 Speaker 1: entire planet. And of course, if you're the Australians and 17 00:00:46,800 --> 00:00:48,640 Speaker 1: you only have a month's worth of oil backed up 18 00:00:48,680 --> 00:00:51,680 Speaker 1: because you believe in climate change or something, you're staring 19 00:00:51,720 --> 00:00:54,960 Speaker 1: down the crosshairs of a real major problem coming fast 20 00:00:54,960 --> 00:00:58,520 Speaker 1: at you. But oil and gas all up globally because 21 00:00:58,520 --> 00:01:00,360 Speaker 1: of that, And is there anything else we can do 22 00:01:00,400 --> 00:01:02,120 Speaker 1: with it, and what should we expect down the road 23 00:01:02,120 --> 00:01:05,959 Speaker 1: with this one, Brian James, Well, as usual, and. 24 00:01:06,000 --> 00:01:08,080 Speaker 2: This is these are the headlines we see from time 25 00:01:08,080 --> 00:01:10,880 Speaker 2: to time that spooked the markets. And as you said, yeah, 26 00:01:11,120 --> 00:01:13,319 Speaker 2: the countries that don't have a good stockpile of oil 27 00:01:13,360 --> 00:01:14,920 Speaker 2: on hand are going to are going to suffer more 28 00:01:14,959 --> 00:01:16,000 Speaker 2: than those that don't. 29 00:01:16,600 --> 00:01:19,959 Speaker 3: And so we did have that we can see. You know. 30 00:01:20,040 --> 00:01:22,759 Speaker 2: The one thing I kind of hold solace in here 31 00:01:23,040 --> 00:01:25,240 Speaker 2: is that underneath this is still as we're sitting here 32 00:01:25,319 --> 00:01:28,720 Speaker 2: right now, it's still a relatively strong economy, and we're 33 00:01:28,800 --> 00:01:31,680 Speaker 2: being driven a lot by the headline. So we had 34 00:01:31,680 --> 00:01:34,840 Speaker 2: a very brief rally reports of the US proposal to 35 00:01:34,880 --> 00:01:38,559 Speaker 2: de escalate tensions, which which of course include the opening 36 00:01:38,600 --> 00:01:40,840 Speaker 2: the strait of hormones, which ironically was closed because the 37 00:01:40,880 --> 00:01:41,360 Speaker 2: war started. 38 00:01:41,360 --> 00:01:42,440 Speaker 3: But that's a whole other story. 39 00:01:43,080 --> 00:01:46,360 Speaker 2: But because that represents about twenty percent of global oil flows, 40 00:01:46,680 --> 00:01:49,640 Speaker 2: any news about that perks the markets up. So what 41 00:01:49,680 --> 00:01:52,320 Speaker 2: that tells us is that this is the major stimulus 42 00:01:52,320 --> 00:01:55,320 Speaker 2: that's dragging the market down, and when it becomes less 43 00:01:55,360 --> 00:01:58,560 Speaker 2: of a headline, then the market is willing to and 44 00:01:58,640 --> 00:02:00,000 Speaker 2: economies are willing to bounce back. 45 00:02:00,080 --> 00:02:01,080 Speaker 3: That's where we are right now. 46 00:02:01,080 --> 00:02:02,440 Speaker 2: But of course the RAN shot that out of the 47 00:02:02,440 --> 00:02:04,440 Speaker 2: sky and came back with their own proposal that the 48 00:02:04,520 --> 00:02:07,920 Speaker 2: US proper promptly shot down. So there really aren't negotiations 49 00:02:07,960 --> 00:02:10,320 Speaker 2: going on here. If there are, that's a question in 50 00:02:10,320 --> 00:02:13,600 Speaker 2: of itself. If there are negotiations going on, they're not 51 00:02:13,680 --> 00:02:16,920 Speaker 2: going very well because both sides seem to be presenting 52 00:02:16,960 --> 00:02:19,920 Speaker 2: exactly what the other side doesn't want. So therefore we 53 00:02:20,040 --> 00:02:22,320 Speaker 2: have the fog of war and we get a bouncy 54 00:02:22,800 --> 00:02:23,760 Speaker 2: kind of spook market. 55 00:02:24,280 --> 00:02:27,959 Speaker 1: Well, I guess that just points out how unrealistic the 56 00:02:28,040 --> 00:02:31,160 Speaker 1: market ebbs and flows are in connection with long term stability. 57 00:02:31,200 --> 00:02:33,919 Speaker 1: I mean, if you're gonna if the price oil is 58 00:02:33,960 --> 00:02:36,680 Speaker 1: going to jump, you know, two, three, ten, fifteen percent 59 00:02:36,760 --> 00:02:40,200 Speaker 1: on some announcement from somebody, when you can look at 60 00:02:40,240 --> 00:02:43,160 Speaker 1: the last several weeks of similar announcements, realizing that, well, 61 00:02:43,240 --> 00:02:45,320 Speaker 1: somebody says something, the other side comes out and says 62 00:02:45,320 --> 00:02:48,440 Speaker 1: something exact opposite within five minutes. I mean, why would 63 00:02:48,440 --> 00:02:50,720 Speaker 1: you even bother reacting like, oh, they're just doing it again. 64 00:02:50,720 --> 00:02:52,359 Speaker 1: It say as if they're playing games. 65 00:02:53,080 --> 00:02:56,400 Speaker 2: Well, and the reaction is only happening at the absolute core. Right, 66 00:02:56,440 --> 00:03:00,880 Speaker 2: it's coming from the It's coming from the oil producers 67 00:03:01,400 --> 00:03:03,720 Speaker 2: who are adjusting prices, like you just said, based on 68 00:03:03,760 --> 00:03:06,680 Speaker 2: what whoever said something most recently, and the thirty seconds 69 00:03:06,760 --> 00:03:09,400 Speaker 2: later somebody says something else. Prices do bounce like that. 70 00:03:09,440 --> 00:03:12,560 Speaker 2: The market, on the other hand, isn't really bouncing as much. 71 00:03:12,600 --> 00:03:15,280 Speaker 2: It's coming down because the market absolutely hates fog. It 72 00:03:15,280 --> 00:03:17,320 Speaker 2: can deal with bad news, it can deal with good news. 73 00:03:17,440 --> 00:03:19,799 Speaker 2: It hates the unknown, and the unknown is very much Hey, 74 00:03:19,800 --> 00:03:21,839 Speaker 2: we're having negotiations, it's all going to be oversuon. Nope, 75 00:03:21,919 --> 00:03:24,880 Speaker 2: not having negotiations. That is literally the definition of the unknown. 76 00:03:24,919 --> 00:03:27,440 Speaker 2: There's just no way to see anything. The good piece 77 00:03:27,480 --> 00:03:29,520 Speaker 2: about all this S and P. Five hundred is down, 78 00:03:29,720 --> 00:03:31,880 Speaker 2: it's only down about eight point seven percent from the 79 00:03:31,919 --> 00:03:35,600 Speaker 2: absolute peak of January twenty seventh. That's a little spooky 80 00:03:35,640 --> 00:03:39,160 Speaker 2: because it's coming alongside the headlines. But remember the average 81 00:03:39,200 --> 00:03:42,520 Speaker 2: intra year pulled down is about sixteen percent, meaning in 82 00:03:42,560 --> 00:03:46,480 Speaker 2: every given year, the average of trough peak to trough 83 00:03:46,560 --> 00:03:49,600 Speaker 2: market movement negatively is sixteen percent. We had it almost 84 00:03:49,640 --> 00:03:51,880 Speaker 2: exactly a year ago when there was the initial panic 85 00:03:51,920 --> 00:03:54,000 Speaker 2: over tariffs. Tariff for a brand new scary thing in 86 00:03:54,040 --> 00:03:56,720 Speaker 2: April twenty twenty five. Then we decided, Okay, this is 87 00:03:56,760 --> 00:03:58,320 Speaker 2: going to be a mess, but whatever, we'll move on 88 00:03:58,400 --> 00:04:00,720 Speaker 2: and deal with it. Market recovered and went on to 89 00:04:00,800 --> 00:04:04,320 Speaker 2: greater highs. So what we can't have and what nobody 90 00:04:04,360 --> 00:04:06,600 Speaker 2: benefits from, right, I think there's a notion out there 91 00:04:06,600 --> 00:04:09,480 Speaker 2: that somebody makes money if the stock market falls apart permanently. 92 00:04:09,560 --> 00:04:11,440 Speaker 2: That's just plain not the case where the world will 93 00:04:11,480 --> 00:04:14,600 Speaker 2: not function if the stock market goes away. So there 94 00:04:14,880 --> 00:04:18,560 Speaker 2: are plenty of people out there with very very important 95 00:04:18,600 --> 00:04:21,400 Speaker 2: interest in keeping the market alive and keeping people happy. 96 00:04:21,480 --> 00:04:23,440 Speaker 2: So at the end of the day, that's the longer 97 00:04:23,520 --> 00:04:25,960 Speaker 2: term view. The short term anybody is anybody's guess. 98 00:04:25,960 --> 00:04:30,240 Speaker 1: Well, I suppose the key indicator to whether there's going 99 00:04:30,279 --> 00:04:33,400 Speaker 1: to be some something resolved by way of the Straits 100 00:04:33,400 --> 00:04:36,039 Speaker 1: of Horror moves is, rather than talk and announcements, it'll 101 00:04:36,080 --> 00:04:39,160 Speaker 1: be ships with oil in them going through the Strait 102 00:04:39,200 --> 00:04:41,719 Speaker 1: of Horror moves without getting blown up. Ran I mean, hey, 103 00:04:41,760 --> 00:04:45,039 Speaker 1: there they are, they're moving through. Now that's the indicator. 104 00:04:44,960 --> 00:04:47,440 Speaker 2: That would seem like a good idea, right and right 105 00:04:47,520 --> 00:04:50,480 Speaker 2: right now, we Iran is the one controlling that because 106 00:04:50,480 --> 00:04:52,680 Speaker 2: the only ones that are making through are the ones 107 00:04:52,720 --> 00:04:55,520 Speaker 2: that Iran permits through period end of story, and we 108 00:04:55,560 --> 00:04:58,320 Speaker 2: do not appear to have disabled that from happening. So 109 00:04:58,400 --> 00:05:00,920 Speaker 2: at this point the ball is theirs. I don't think 110 00:05:00,920 --> 00:05:02,600 Speaker 2: it's going to stay that way, but that's the moment. 111 00:05:02,600 --> 00:05:03,800 Speaker 2: That's where we are in a moment right now. 112 00:05:03,880 --> 00:05:05,800 Speaker 1: Well, a lot of folks fretting about the concerns over 113 00:05:05,839 --> 00:05:08,839 Speaker 1: the ripple effect of fertilizer supplies not being allowed through, 114 00:05:08,880 --> 00:05:11,400 Speaker 1: and Iran while allowing some through who paid two million 115 00:05:11,440 --> 00:05:13,719 Speaker 1: dollars a boat to get it through, fertilizers are not 116 00:05:13,800 --> 00:05:16,159 Speaker 1: on the list of approved boats getting through the straight 117 00:05:16,200 --> 00:05:18,120 Speaker 1: of hormones, at least as far as Iran is concerned. 118 00:05:18,160 --> 00:05:20,840 Speaker 1: So that's not happening. And apparently now is the time 119 00:05:20,880 --> 00:05:23,359 Speaker 1: when it's so vitally important for farmers to actually have 120 00:05:23,440 --> 00:05:26,520 Speaker 1: the fertilizer straight of hormones is shut down. It's got 121 00:05:27,080 --> 00:05:29,480 Speaker 1: let's see here, forty nine percent of the world's exported 122 00:05:29,600 --> 00:05:34,039 Speaker 1: urea thirty percent of traded ammonia. Russia has also stopped 123 00:05:34,080 --> 00:05:37,960 Speaker 1: exporting its ammonium nit trade and they won't export any 124 00:05:38,040 --> 00:05:40,520 Speaker 1: until after April twenty first. That's the announcement and then 125 00:05:40,600 --> 00:05:43,880 Speaker 1: China also banned exports of nitrogen potassium blends and phosphate 126 00:05:43,880 --> 00:05:48,840 Speaker 1: fertilizers through August of this year. The farmers need this now, 127 00:05:48,920 --> 00:05:50,240 Speaker 1: so I guess you and I are going to be 128 00:05:50,279 --> 00:05:53,520 Speaker 1: talking about inflation in food prices and maybe global starvation 129 00:05:53,720 --> 00:05:57,080 Speaker 1: as we get more towards the end of summer. Brian. 130 00:05:57,800 --> 00:06:00,920 Speaker 2: Yeah, and then this is this is unfortunately we've seen 131 00:06:00,960 --> 00:06:04,120 Speaker 2: this recently in past because when Russia invaded Ukraine, that 132 00:06:04,160 --> 00:06:07,360 Speaker 2: triggered a natural gas price spike, and that's what natural 133 00:06:07,360 --> 00:06:10,400 Speaker 2: gas is an important component of fertilizer, so fertilizer price 134 00:06:10,440 --> 00:06:12,240 Speaker 2: is double and tripled at that point, and that of 135 00:06:12,240 --> 00:06:14,520 Speaker 2: course trickles through to the prices of corn and wheat 136 00:06:14,560 --> 00:06:15,479 Speaker 2: surging globally. 137 00:06:16,000 --> 00:06:16,919 Speaker 3: In twenty nineteen. 138 00:06:16,920 --> 00:06:20,360 Speaker 2: A few years prior to that, Iran attacked some attacked 139 00:06:20,400 --> 00:06:22,320 Speaker 2: some tankers in the Hormuz region and we had a 140 00:06:22,320 --> 00:06:25,240 Speaker 2: spike then as well as the fertilizer markets hit. Then 141 00:06:25,480 --> 00:06:27,080 Speaker 2: we're hit at that point too. So this is all 142 00:06:27,120 --> 00:06:30,160 Speaker 2: things we've seen before. It's just tough when you're standing 143 00:06:30,160 --> 00:06:32,200 Speaker 2: in the middle of the fog to see which direction 144 00:06:32,320 --> 00:06:35,400 Speaker 2: to step. But the step, as we always recommend, if 145 00:06:35,400 --> 00:06:37,240 Speaker 2: you've got a financial plan in place. None of these 146 00:06:37,279 --> 00:06:41,200 Speaker 2: headlines should be impacting how you react to it. Shouldn't 147 00:06:41,200 --> 00:06:43,600 Speaker 2: be impacting the decisions you make, because you should have 148 00:06:43,640 --> 00:06:46,400 Speaker 2: a short term plan in place alongside your long term plan, 149 00:06:46,600 --> 00:06:49,760 Speaker 2: and both of those should reflect the fact that stuff happens. 150 00:06:49,839 --> 00:06:50,960 Speaker 3: Pardon my face. 151 00:06:51,120 --> 00:06:54,279 Speaker 1: No, you're right though, and stuff happens. It wasn't that 152 00:06:54,440 --> 00:06:56,680 Speaker 1: long ago, Brian. We weathered the storm of north of 153 00:06:56,720 --> 00:06:59,679 Speaker 1: four dollars gasoline around this country as well during COVID 154 00:06:59,720 --> 00:07:02,280 Speaker 1: when we've had issues. Of course, as a consequence of 155 00:07:02,279 --> 00:07:05,039 Speaker 1: some green energy strategies, the price has gone up. I mean, 156 00:07:05,320 --> 00:07:07,920 Speaker 1: this isn't new for us, this this level a price 157 00:07:08,080 --> 00:07:10,360 Speaker 1: for gasoline. So it's like as if we had short 158 00:07:10,400 --> 00:07:13,360 Speaker 1: detention span theater. Oh my god, this is totally different. 159 00:07:13,360 --> 00:07:14,240 Speaker 1: We're all gonna die. 160 00:07:15,160 --> 00:07:17,400 Speaker 2: Yeah, and that's that's the kind of thing that keeps 161 00:07:17,400 --> 00:07:21,960 Speaker 2: me employed, of course, But human beings mean I will 162 00:07:21,960 --> 00:07:26,560 Speaker 2: have a job array of sunshine, yes exactly. But yeah, 163 00:07:26,600 --> 00:07:28,560 Speaker 2: I mean this is to your point, these are things 164 00:07:28,600 --> 00:07:30,960 Speaker 2: we've seen before. Now, we did see a few years ago. 165 00:07:31,000 --> 00:07:33,840 Speaker 2: Of course, we did see gas price spikes to you know, 166 00:07:33,920 --> 00:07:35,800 Speaker 2: four dollars a gawn a little north of that. The 167 00:07:35,880 --> 00:07:38,520 Speaker 2: boogeymanner in these parts is five dollars a gallon. Now, 168 00:07:38,560 --> 00:07:40,920 Speaker 2: people out in California laugh at that because they see seven. 169 00:07:40,960 --> 00:07:43,040 Speaker 2: And I actually saw eight dollars a gallon somewhere out 170 00:07:43,040 --> 00:07:45,600 Speaker 2: in California. We don't have to deal with that at 171 00:07:45,600 --> 00:07:48,000 Speaker 2: that level. But you know, the interesting thing to me 172 00:07:48,080 --> 00:07:52,000 Speaker 2: is we've undone a lot of those green energy initiatives 173 00:07:52,200 --> 00:07:54,520 Speaker 2: because that this administration, of course, is moving in the 174 00:07:54,520 --> 00:07:57,720 Speaker 2: opposite direction, and yet prices are still spiking, prices are 175 00:07:57,760 --> 00:08:00,840 Speaker 2: still sensitive to global trade. It's nice only about those 176 00:08:00,840 --> 00:08:03,440 Speaker 2: green initiatives. It's about again, like you just said, the 177 00:08:03,440 --> 00:08:05,160 Speaker 2: straight of horror moves, can we get the oil where 178 00:08:05,200 --> 00:08:07,760 Speaker 2: it belongs. You know, there are many, many things that 179 00:08:07,800 --> 00:08:10,440 Speaker 2: affect those oil prices, and it's not just one thing 180 00:08:10,480 --> 00:08:12,240 Speaker 2: that's the end all be all. Now, it's interesting to 181 00:08:12,280 --> 00:08:14,880 Speaker 2: me when oil prices dropped really, really low over the 182 00:08:14,960 --> 00:08:16,800 Speaker 2: last couple of years, we just quit talking about it. 183 00:08:16,800 --> 00:08:19,120 Speaker 2: You'd think, as passionate as people are, when it gets 184 00:08:19,160 --> 00:08:21,640 Speaker 2: to four or five bucks a gallon, somebody would celebrate 185 00:08:21,720 --> 00:08:23,720 Speaker 2: in or take credit for the fact that they dropped 186 00:08:23,760 --> 00:08:26,200 Speaker 2: a two bucks a gallon not that long ago. But 187 00:08:26,280 --> 00:08:28,240 Speaker 2: that didn't happen. We just kind of quit talking about 188 00:08:28,320 --> 00:08:30,720 Speaker 2: I'm fascinated by that. Nobody even took credit for it, 189 00:08:30,920 --> 00:08:32,040 Speaker 2: whether deserve it or not. 190 00:08:32,440 --> 00:08:34,120 Speaker 1: Well, no, I mean, I'm not going to suggest for 191 00:08:34,200 --> 00:08:35,920 Speaker 1: a moment that Donald Trump is the one that brought 192 00:08:35,920 --> 00:08:38,640 Speaker 1: around this the north just slightly north of two dollars gasoline. 193 00:08:38,640 --> 00:08:42,040 Speaker 1: But I think because it is a Trump administration under 194 00:08:42,040 --> 00:08:44,080 Speaker 1: which that occurred, that at least the mainstream media and 195 00:08:44,080 --> 00:08:46,920 Speaker 1: most media outlets, not being a real fans of Donald Trump, 196 00:08:47,080 --> 00:08:49,800 Speaker 1: weren't inclined to even raise that as a reality, like, hey, 197 00:08:49,800 --> 00:08:55,400 Speaker 1: we should all be celebrating because true. 198 00:08:54,200 --> 00:08:57,480 Speaker 2: Itself controls a lot of media outlets too, and there 199 00:08:57,520 --> 00:09:01,320 Speaker 2: are even any social you know, social tweets or anything 200 00:09:01,360 --> 00:09:02,920 Speaker 2: like that. It just kind of went away. And where 201 00:09:02,920 --> 00:09:04,960 Speaker 2: are the stickers with him on it saying I did that? 202 00:09:05,200 --> 00:09:07,280 Speaker 2: And you know, like the Joe Biden ones that were 203 00:09:07,280 --> 00:09:07,720 Speaker 2: out there. 204 00:09:07,880 --> 00:09:10,600 Speaker 1: Good point, maybe, because you put the sticker up and 205 00:09:10,600 --> 00:09:12,520 Speaker 1: then five minutes later we're in a conflict with the 206 00:09:12,559 --> 00:09:14,560 Speaker 1: rod and the price of gasoline's gone up a buck 207 00:09:14,600 --> 00:09:17,480 Speaker 1: fifty a gown. That sticker is no longer there serves 208 00:09:17,600 --> 00:09:22,280 Speaker 1: as a benefits I did it again right ah, anyway, 209 00:09:22,280 --> 00:09:24,600 Speaker 1: we're gonna fight out. Well, this is also having an 210 00:09:24,600 --> 00:09:29,240 Speaker 1: impact on summer vacation plans. These economic concerns, socia, security, TikTok, TikTok, 211 00:09:29,320 --> 00:09:34,400 Speaker 1: bad news, six years left that more with Brian James. 212 00:09:34,520 --> 00:09:35,520 Speaker 1: Be right back, don't go away. 213 00:09:36,040 --> 00:09:36,920 Speaker 3: This was your week. 214 00:09:37,320 --> 00:09:38,360 Speaker 1: Tragedy at Libordia. 215 00:09:38,440 --> 00:09:40,439 Speaker 3: They made a mistaken it. Talk station. 216 00:09:41,679 --> 00:09:44,840 Speaker 1: A seventeen to fifty five care CD talk station, Happy Monday, 217 00:09:44,880 --> 00:09:47,920 Speaker 1: Money Money with Brian James. Brian James smallworth financial. He's 218 00:09:47,960 --> 00:09:49,719 Speaker 1: financial planner. He's always trying to steer us in the 219 00:09:49,760 --> 00:09:52,200 Speaker 1: right direction and think about things well that might impact 220 00:09:52,240 --> 00:09:55,800 Speaker 1: her long term financial planning, like social security, which we'll 221 00:09:55,800 --> 00:09:59,079 Speaker 1: get to next. But first I listened, Brian James. You 222 00:09:59,240 --> 00:10:01,880 Speaker 1: an't going to comit. This is a bad thing. Staycations. 223 00:10:01,960 --> 00:10:06,800 Speaker 1: I love staycasians. Love them. Sleep my own bed, wake up, 224 00:10:06,920 --> 00:10:09,199 Speaker 1: have my own food, enjoy it, relaxed, don't have to 225 00:10:09,280 --> 00:10:11,679 Speaker 1: go anywhere necessarily, But I'm free to go anywhere I 226 00:10:11,720 --> 00:10:14,160 Speaker 1: want on a staycation. I've got no problem with that. 227 00:10:14,240 --> 00:10:16,080 Speaker 1: And I'm not a big fan of air travel anyway, 228 00:10:16,120 --> 00:10:18,760 Speaker 1: so I've got no problem with this. But apparently this 229 00:10:18,840 --> 00:10:21,000 Speaker 1: is a decision. Many people do not want to make 230 00:10:21,040 --> 00:10:23,280 Speaker 1: having a staycation as opposed to going somewhere. 231 00:10:24,400 --> 00:10:27,320 Speaker 2: Yeah, so staycations for those of you who have never 232 00:10:27,360 --> 00:10:29,400 Speaker 2: heard that term, hopefully there's not many of you out there. 233 00:10:29,440 --> 00:10:31,480 Speaker 2: But basically, let's hang around at home and just simply 234 00:10:31,559 --> 00:10:34,240 Speaker 2: not go to work, let's get out of our routines. Well, 235 00:10:34,240 --> 00:10:36,960 Speaker 2: this is emerging in twenty twenty six as we're rethinking 236 00:10:37,000 --> 00:10:37,920 Speaker 2: our travel plans. 237 00:10:38,200 --> 00:10:41,640 Speaker 3: Guess why, because gas prices are up. Air travel not 238 00:10:41,720 --> 00:10:42,360 Speaker 3: only is. 239 00:10:43,760 --> 00:10:48,360 Speaker 2: A little difficult these days, it's actually not. The prices 240 00:10:48,400 --> 00:10:51,760 Speaker 2: on air travel has not been super painful. We haven't 241 00:10:51,760 --> 00:10:53,480 Speaker 2: seen the increases there that we've seen at the pump 242 00:10:54,200 --> 00:10:57,040 Speaker 2: because demand is actually dropping. Bookings to Europe are down 243 00:10:57,080 --> 00:11:00,240 Speaker 2: eleven percent year over year. I think there's a decent 244 00:11:00,280 --> 00:11:01,760 Speaker 2: amount of people who feel like they're not going to 245 00:11:01,760 --> 00:11:04,160 Speaker 2: be very welcome as they touch the ground there in 246 00:11:04,200 --> 00:11:06,880 Speaker 2: Paris or London and so forth. With the United States 247 00:11:06,920 --> 00:11:08,920 Speaker 2: current position and a lot of things, forty three percent 248 00:11:08,920 --> 00:11:12,600 Speaker 2: of frequent international travelers are cutting back, and there's rising 249 00:11:12,640 --> 00:11:16,200 Speaker 2: costs everywhere, geopolitical risks rising. Right, why go closer to 250 00:11:16,240 --> 00:11:18,800 Speaker 2: the fire if you don't have to. But a lot 251 00:11:18,840 --> 00:11:20,760 Speaker 2: of this, again has to do with cost. We saw this, 252 00:11:21,000 --> 00:11:22,920 Speaker 2: you know, in two thousand and eight with the financial crisis. 253 00:11:22,920 --> 00:11:25,720 Speaker 2: We also sought of course in COVID for reasons that 254 00:11:25,760 --> 00:11:28,520 Speaker 2: had nothing to do with finance. But yeah, again, people 255 00:11:28,520 --> 00:11:30,600 Speaker 2: are making different decisions. This does have a trickle down 256 00:11:30,600 --> 00:11:32,679 Speaker 2: effect because there's a lot of economies out there that 257 00:11:32,800 --> 00:11:37,520 Speaker 2: depend on people swooping in from distant parts and bringing 258 00:11:37,520 --> 00:11:39,920 Speaker 2: their money with them, So good and bad things is 259 00:11:39,960 --> 00:11:40,520 Speaker 2: all part of this. 260 00:11:41,360 --> 00:11:41,920 Speaker 3: Well. 261 00:11:42,160 --> 00:11:47,200 Speaker 1: Is that true for foreign nationals that might consider coming 262 00:11:47,200 --> 00:11:49,120 Speaker 1: to the United States. I know we're not real number 263 00:11:49,120 --> 00:11:50,480 Speaker 1: one on a lot of people's hit parade for the 264 00:11:50,480 --> 00:11:53,400 Speaker 1: reasons you mentioned before, But are they making comparable decisions 265 00:11:53,440 --> 00:11:55,800 Speaker 1: in choosing not to travel or is this a purely 266 00:11:55,880 --> 00:11:57,160 Speaker 1: American phenomenon. 267 00:11:57,840 --> 00:11:59,480 Speaker 2: No, this is very much. This is very much an 268 00:11:59,520 --> 00:12:04,240 Speaker 2: impact the economies here from foreign travelers, such as you know, 269 00:12:04,280 --> 00:12:07,760 Speaker 2: Disney is seeing fewer people coming from abroad just for 270 00:12:08,200 --> 00:12:09,920 Speaker 2: a lot of reasons. There's a lot of economic things 271 00:12:09,920 --> 00:12:12,640 Speaker 2: out there that affects everybody, but it definitely will hit 272 00:12:12,679 --> 00:12:16,040 Speaker 2: the economies here, you know, just like everywhere else. As 273 00:12:16,080 --> 00:12:19,720 Speaker 2: people make different decisions, staycations are great for the person 274 00:12:19,800 --> 00:12:21,760 Speaker 2: who here here wants to stay here in Cincinnati just 275 00:12:21,800 --> 00:12:23,559 Speaker 2: kind of keep it quiet for a little bit. Not 276 00:12:23,600 --> 00:12:27,040 Speaker 2: so great for folks and whose businesses rely on those 277 00:12:27,400 --> 00:12:28,560 Speaker 2: foreign travelers. 278 00:12:29,040 --> 00:12:31,960 Speaker 1: All right, Well, economic realities are a thing. Hey, you 279 00:12:31,960 --> 00:12:33,439 Speaker 1: got to make the right decisions. If you don't have 280 00:12:33,520 --> 00:12:36,400 Speaker 1: enough money going to vacations, don't go. I just don't 281 00:12:36,480 --> 00:12:38,240 Speaker 1: view it as sort of like this, Oh my god, 282 00:12:38,559 --> 00:12:41,079 Speaker 1: life sucks. I can't go someplace else on a vacation 283 00:12:41,120 --> 00:12:43,720 Speaker 1: because there's so much to do right in your backyard. 284 00:12:44,080 --> 00:12:46,400 Speaker 1: I mean, go on the confines of your backyard, take 285 00:12:46,400 --> 00:12:48,480 Speaker 1: a road trip, going up to Hawking Hills and go 286 00:12:48,559 --> 00:12:50,559 Speaker 1: see one of the beautiful spots in Kentucky. I mean, 287 00:12:51,320 --> 00:12:52,840 Speaker 1: doesn't have to cost a lot of money, as long 288 00:12:52,880 --> 00:12:55,640 Speaker 1: as you're spending time with family and relaxing. Relaxing, to me, 289 00:12:55,760 --> 00:12:57,560 Speaker 1: is the only point of taking a vacation, and quite 290 00:12:57,559 --> 00:13:00,720 Speaker 1: often traveling is far less relaxing than just sleeping in 291 00:13:00,840 --> 00:13:03,280 Speaker 1: and just going num num num num, numb when the 292 00:13:03,320 --> 00:13:07,000 Speaker 1: alarm doesn't go off. Brian James, let's pivot over only 293 00:13:07,600 --> 00:13:10,480 Speaker 1: six years. This hitch right in your wheelhouse, because you 294 00:13:10,559 --> 00:13:13,280 Speaker 1: have to plan for your future. And I have lived 295 00:13:13,280 --> 00:13:16,320 Speaker 1: my entire life under the mindset that social security will 296 00:13:16,360 --> 00:13:19,319 Speaker 1: not be there for me when I retire, Brian. They've 297 00:13:19,360 --> 00:13:21,880 Speaker 1: been projecting the demise and the end of social security 298 00:13:21,880 --> 00:13:23,920 Speaker 1: for years and years and years, and every year the 299 00:13:24,000 --> 00:13:26,719 Speaker 1: projections just keep getting worse. In the timeline for how 300 00:13:26,720 --> 00:13:29,480 Speaker 1: long it's going to be solving get shorter and shorter. Hey, 301 00:13:29,720 --> 00:13:32,080 Speaker 1: isn't it great our politicians have actually stepped up to 302 00:13:32,120 --> 00:13:34,480 Speaker 1: the plate and done something to extend the life of 303 00:13:34,480 --> 00:13:37,160 Speaker 1: the program. Oh that's right, Brian, they had it. 304 00:13:37,040 --> 00:13:41,960 Speaker 3: Didn't happen a little early on the optimism there, sir. 305 00:13:42,080 --> 00:13:42,920 Speaker 3: He's wheeze. 306 00:13:43,200 --> 00:13:45,880 Speaker 1: You know, so many people relying on this and they 307 00:13:45,920 --> 00:13:48,120 Speaker 1: have been sold a bill of goods in spite of 308 00:13:48,120 --> 00:13:50,360 Speaker 1: the fact that your social Security form says right on 309 00:13:50,520 --> 00:13:53,800 Speaker 1: its face that this is no guarantee that the monthly 310 00:13:53,800 --> 00:13:57,400 Speaker 1: amount we're showing you might get you will get there. 311 00:13:57,440 --> 00:14:00,800 Speaker 1: It is, and yet we should probably count on getting 312 00:14:00,840 --> 00:14:03,240 Speaker 1: that because it's listen, how many people are funding social 313 00:14:03,280 --> 00:14:05,920 Speaker 1: security now versus when it started. Wasn't it like sixteen 314 00:14:05,960 --> 00:14:08,439 Speaker 1: workers to one retiree. 315 00:14:08,160 --> 00:14:10,120 Speaker 2: Right, and now we're getting closer to one to one, 316 00:14:10,160 --> 00:14:13,160 Speaker 2: and that's the real problem. So yeah, So the headline 317 00:14:13,240 --> 00:14:15,920 Speaker 2: is the projection is now, that's so scurity, And I 318 00:14:15,920 --> 00:14:17,800 Speaker 2: want to be very careful with these words because people 319 00:14:17,800 --> 00:14:19,600 Speaker 2: tend to take them and run with them. So Scurity 320 00:14:19,640 --> 00:14:21,960 Speaker 2: is projected to hit insolvency in six years. Now, what 321 00:14:22,000 --> 00:14:24,880 Speaker 2: this does not mean. This does not mean that Social 322 00:14:24,880 --> 00:14:27,600 Speaker 2: Security checks are going to drop. That's not the case 323 00:14:27,640 --> 00:14:29,560 Speaker 2: because I guarantee you, as I said many times on 324 00:14:29,600 --> 00:14:32,440 Speaker 2: these airwaves and then meetings with clients, I'm going to 325 00:14:32,480 --> 00:14:35,000 Speaker 2: be working in these years in the early twenty thirties. Right, 326 00:14:35,000 --> 00:14:36,800 Speaker 2: the year is twenty thirty two now, it used to 327 00:14:36,800 --> 00:14:39,000 Speaker 2: be twenty thirty three, thirty four, whatever, And I can 328 00:14:39,000 --> 00:14:41,440 Speaker 2: guarantee you on the top of my paste up it 329 00:14:41,480 --> 00:14:43,600 Speaker 2: there is going to be a line for fight GUTEP, 330 00:14:43,600 --> 00:14:45,800 Speaker 2: which is as everybody else you as well, if you're 331 00:14:45,800 --> 00:14:49,160 Speaker 2: still hanging around the workplace. There that is the money 332 00:14:49,200 --> 00:14:51,960 Speaker 2: that's coming out of workers' paychecks and going directly to 333 00:14:52,040 --> 00:14:56,160 Speaker 2: beneficiaries of Social Security, meaning retirees. So if nothing happens, 334 00:14:56,200 --> 00:14:58,640 Speaker 2: that dollar amount will be all we can rely on. 335 00:14:58,720 --> 00:15:01,360 Speaker 2: And that's going to result and benefit cuts about twenty 336 00:15:01,400 --> 00:15:03,920 Speaker 2: four percent across the board. That's going to impact about 337 00:15:03,960 --> 00:15:07,200 Speaker 2: seventy five million people. But at the same time that 338 00:15:07,440 --> 00:15:09,520 Speaker 2: a benefit cut of twenty four percent that is not 339 00:15:09,680 --> 00:15:10,320 Speaker 2: one hundred percent. 340 00:15:10,400 --> 00:15:12,760 Speaker 3: There's there are going to be checks coming out there. 341 00:15:13,720 --> 00:15:16,080 Speaker 1: Well, unsettling for many who are thinking that's going to 342 00:15:16,080 --> 00:15:18,000 Speaker 1: be their only source of income. But something will at 343 00:15:18,080 --> 00:15:21,880 Speaker 1: least be showing up. I mean, might you know, long, 344 00:15:21,960 --> 00:15:24,120 Speaker 1: long time ago, there was discussions about, you know, sort 345 00:15:24,120 --> 00:15:26,040 Speaker 1: of maybe privatizing this a little bit and letting us 346 00:15:26,040 --> 00:15:28,280 Speaker 1: to keep that fighto amount that they take from our paychecks, 347 00:15:28,280 --> 00:15:31,080 Speaker 1: which is not invested long term, does not grow in 348 00:15:31,120 --> 00:15:33,480 Speaker 1: any way, shape or form, rather than just sending it 349 00:15:33,480 --> 00:15:36,840 Speaker 1: out to Social Security recipients, letting us have some financial 350 00:15:36,920 --> 00:15:39,600 Speaker 1: plan like four oh one k roth that kind of 351 00:15:39,640 --> 00:15:42,360 Speaker 1: control over it, so don't give it to the federal government, 352 00:15:42,800 --> 00:15:44,560 Speaker 1: put it in your own account, kind of like letting 353 00:15:44,560 --> 00:15:46,880 Speaker 1: the money flow with the children to school districts, that 354 00:15:46,960 --> 00:15:49,640 Speaker 1: kind of thing. Will that ever see the light of day? 355 00:15:49,840 --> 00:15:54,280 Speaker 2: Brian James, Well, I mean that is probably not a 356 00:15:54,320 --> 00:15:57,880 Speaker 2: major surprise that the all the ideas that currently come 357 00:15:57,920 --> 00:16:01,080 Speaker 2: out now come out from one far so the political spectrum. 358 00:16:01,120 --> 00:16:03,280 Speaker 2: And again this happens going both directions, and they get 359 00:16:03,320 --> 00:16:05,000 Speaker 2: immediately shot down by the other side. So on the 360 00:16:05,000 --> 00:16:08,880 Speaker 2: Democratic side, you have Senator Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren. 361 00:16:09,560 --> 00:16:11,840 Speaker 2: Bernie wants to expand benefits, not only fix the problem, 362 00:16:11,840 --> 00:16:14,120 Speaker 2: but expand benefits and provide them to more people than 363 00:16:14,120 --> 00:16:16,880 Speaker 2: are currently getting them. Paying for that by eliminating the 364 00:16:16,920 --> 00:16:20,680 Speaker 2: payroll tax cap, meaning that anybody who earns, if you 365 00:16:20,720 --> 00:16:22,720 Speaker 2: earn more than one hundred and eighty four thousand dollars, 366 00:16:22,760 --> 00:16:25,200 Speaker 2: you're not paying Social Security, not paying those fike AT 367 00:16:25,280 --> 00:16:27,960 Speaker 2: taxes on that dollar mount above one hundred and eighty four. 368 00:16:28,880 --> 00:16:29,080 Speaker 3: See. 369 00:16:29,080 --> 00:16:31,240 Speaker 2: He wants to commutely eliminate that and basically not have 370 00:16:31,280 --> 00:16:33,840 Speaker 2: a payroll tax cap, just like is done for Medicare. 371 00:16:33,880 --> 00:16:36,440 Speaker 2: There is no cap on your Medicare earnings, but there 372 00:16:36,520 --> 00:16:38,760 Speaker 2: is on your Social Security. In terms of your taxation, 373 00:16:39,400 --> 00:16:42,080 Speaker 2: Elizabeth Warren wants to, of course tax the wealthy to 374 00:16:42,120 --> 00:16:44,280 Speaker 2: fully fund the system. I'm sure that's not a major surprise. 375 00:16:44,640 --> 00:16:46,880 Speaker 2: Sheldon white House out of Rhode Island. He wants to 376 00:16:47,760 --> 00:16:50,920 Speaker 2: also deal with the higher income taxation side of things. Now, 377 00:16:50,920 --> 00:16:53,600 Speaker 2: on the Republican side, you've got Mike Lee Rand Paul 378 00:16:54,320 --> 00:16:58,200 Speaker 2: All wanting to Ran Paul's a big support of privatization concepts, 379 00:16:58,200 --> 00:17:00,560 Speaker 2: although he is not currently sponsoring a bill that I'm 380 00:17:00,600 --> 00:17:03,040 Speaker 2: aware of. Mike Lee is out there wanting to cap 381 00:17:03,040 --> 00:17:06,560 Speaker 2: benefits on higher income retirees anybody who earns more than 382 00:17:06,600 --> 00:17:09,680 Speaker 2: one hundred thousand dollars already, and also wanting to put 383 00:17:09,720 --> 00:17:12,440 Speaker 2: in structural reforms to kind of slow those long term costs. Now, 384 00:17:12,440 --> 00:17:14,960 Speaker 2: all of these, of course, are very much along political lines. 385 00:17:15,000 --> 00:17:17,480 Speaker 2: As soon as somebody produces one of these ideas, it's 386 00:17:17,480 --> 00:17:19,600 Speaker 2: not that they're not talking about it. This gets brought 387 00:17:19,600 --> 00:17:22,640 Speaker 2: to the floor of Congress frequently. But as soon as 388 00:17:22,840 --> 00:17:25,760 Speaker 2: somebody brings an idea, it's either got to do with 389 00:17:25,840 --> 00:17:29,840 Speaker 2: reducing benefits on future retirees or increasing taxation now on 390 00:17:29,920 --> 00:17:32,800 Speaker 2: current workers, both of the both of those solutions. Any 391 00:17:32,800 --> 00:17:34,600 Speaker 2: solution fault fits into both of those headings, and it 392 00:17:34,640 --> 00:17:38,600 Speaker 2: gets immediately, immediately, instantaneously shot down by the other side. 393 00:17:38,600 --> 00:17:40,879 Speaker 2: We are in just nowhere near solution on you on this. 394 00:17:41,160 --> 00:17:44,399 Speaker 1: No, and if anybody else hasn't noticed, Congress seems to 395 00:17:44,400 --> 00:17:47,080 Speaker 1: be a bit of a stalemate over literally anything. I 396 00:17:47,080 --> 00:17:49,919 Speaker 1: mean literally anything. The political lines are so stark and 397 00:17:49,960 --> 00:17:52,920 Speaker 1: so divided that I don't think we can really comfortably 398 00:17:52,920 --> 00:17:55,879 Speaker 1: hope on any agreement on almost any topic. At this 399 00:17:56,000 --> 00:17:58,800 Speaker 1: point in time, most notably the third rail of politics, 400 00:17:58,840 --> 00:18:01,800 Speaker 1: which is social securities. So six years, TikTok, TikTok, and 401 00:18:01,880 --> 00:18:03,760 Speaker 1: next year, Brian, you're probably be talking about, Oh, it's 402 00:18:03,760 --> 00:18:04,720 Speaker 1: only three years now. 403 00:18:05,640 --> 00:18:07,840 Speaker 2: Yeah, you know, I've been an advisor now for about 404 00:18:07,840 --> 00:18:10,880 Speaker 2: thirty years, and this has been a topic ever since 405 00:18:10,920 --> 00:18:12,800 Speaker 2: the beginning. I remember when I was a baby, advisor 406 00:18:12,840 --> 00:18:14,320 Speaker 2: didn't know very much. I felt like it was going 407 00:18:14,400 --> 00:18:16,480 Speaker 2: to happen tomorrow the way that they were talking about it. 408 00:18:16,920 --> 00:18:19,160 Speaker 2: And these years, you know, yes, we're saying twenty thirty 409 00:18:19,160 --> 00:18:22,320 Speaker 2: two right now, but that's not that far off. It's 410 00:18:22,359 --> 00:18:24,880 Speaker 2: not like it was twenty forty five fifteen years ago. 411 00:18:25,160 --> 00:18:27,119 Speaker 2: It seems to have been in a range of maybe 412 00:18:27,119 --> 00:18:29,320 Speaker 2: twenty thirty two to twenty thirty six. Don't quote me 413 00:18:29,320 --> 00:18:31,359 Speaker 2: on that, but every time I brought this up, and 414 00:18:31,400 --> 00:18:33,080 Speaker 2: it's usually around this time of year, it's the first 415 00:18:33,160 --> 00:18:34,879 Speaker 2: quarter of the year that they do this big study, 416 00:18:35,040 --> 00:18:37,080 Speaker 2: and it's always in the early twenty thirty So that 417 00:18:37,119 --> 00:18:40,159 Speaker 2: has not moved as much as people might think. And 418 00:18:40,240 --> 00:18:42,560 Speaker 2: we've been here before, Brian. We had a problem in 419 00:18:42,600 --> 00:18:45,400 Speaker 2: the late seventies early eighties because the math didn't math. 420 00:18:45,640 --> 00:18:49,160 Speaker 2: It was an error in the formula where the cost 421 00:18:49,160 --> 00:18:52,359 Speaker 2: of living increases were basically getting duplicated throughout the seventies, 422 00:18:52,600 --> 00:18:54,719 Speaker 2: and that set us up for failure in the early eighties. 423 00:18:55,000 --> 00:18:57,960 Speaker 2: And that required the both parties to work together, and 424 00:18:58,000 --> 00:19:00,720 Speaker 2: it also required President Reagan and Tip O'Neil to come 425 00:19:00,720 --> 00:19:03,480 Speaker 2: together in the same room and basically force Congress to 426 00:19:03,480 --> 00:19:06,200 Speaker 2: make a decision to fix it. We're on that path now, 427 00:19:06,520 --> 00:19:09,159 Speaker 2: but that also didn't happen until we were within months 428 00:19:09,160 --> 00:19:11,800 Speaker 2: of the program becoming insolvent because that math was set 429 00:19:11,880 --> 00:19:14,720 Speaker 2: up incorrectly. So we still have a few years away. 430 00:19:14,760 --> 00:19:17,480 Speaker 2: So don't I don't envision any kind of permanent resolution 431 00:19:17,600 --> 00:19:20,040 Speaker 2: here until I don't know, twenty thirty, twenty thirty one, 432 00:19:20,119 --> 00:19:20,639 Speaker 2: something like that. 433 00:19:20,680 --> 00:19:21,520 Speaker 3: We're not going to do. 434 00:19:21,480 --> 00:19:25,080 Speaker 2: It within while somebody still has the ability to run 435 00:19:25,119 --> 00:19:27,440 Speaker 2: for election one more time without having had to deal 436 00:19:27,480 --> 00:19:29,919 Speaker 2: with Social Security, which is going to be a sacrifice 437 00:19:29,960 --> 00:19:30,840 Speaker 2: any way you want to tack. 438 00:19:31,040 --> 00:19:33,120 Speaker 1: Yeah, I share your perspective on that one, Brian James. 439 00:19:33,160 --> 00:19:36,280 Speaker 1: Don't go away because apparently there's about a trillion dollars 440 00:19:36,320 --> 00:19:40,040 Speaker 1: in unpaid family caregiving going on. I don't this suggests 441 00:19:40,040 --> 00:19:41,880 Speaker 1: maybe we need to pay for it. We'll find out. 442 00:19:41,880 --> 00:19:44,159 Speaker 1: Brian James with one more on this Money Monday. It's 443 00:19:44,200 --> 00:19:46,119 Speaker 1: eight twenty seven right now at fifty five krc DE 444 00:19:46,240 --> 00:19:52,120 Speaker 1: Talk Station, fifty five kr Sation eight thirty one. Here 445 00:19:52,160 --> 00:19:54,879 Speaker 1: fifty five KRCD Talk Station. Happy Monday, Money Money with 446 00:19:54,880 --> 00:19:57,240 Speaker 1: Brian James. Every Monday eight o five to this point 447 00:19:57,280 --> 00:20:00,000 Speaker 1: in time, we're going to hear about Bach the Johann 448 00:20:00,040 --> 00:20:02,840 Speaker 1: Smashing Box, specifically coming up next doctor for Christina Furman's 449 00:20:02,840 --> 00:20:05,240 Speaker 1: going to join us about the empower Youth Seminar Why 450 00:20:05,320 --> 00:20:09,000 Speaker 1: Bach is so awesome? Boiling it down two a sense, 451 00:20:09,320 --> 00:20:11,600 Speaker 1: Brian James, I guess a lot of it als are 452 00:20:11,600 --> 00:20:15,080 Speaker 1: caregivers for well loved ones. This comes as no surprise 453 00:20:15,160 --> 00:20:18,120 Speaker 1: to me. But for whatever reason, AARP crunched the numbers 454 00:20:18,640 --> 00:20:21,040 Speaker 1: and broke down the amount of hours that people are 455 00:20:21,119 --> 00:20:24,199 Speaker 1: caring for their family loved ones into a figure and 456 00:20:24,280 --> 00:20:27,200 Speaker 1: determined that it was worth a trillion dollars unpaid they 457 00:20:27,240 --> 00:20:29,560 Speaker 1: call it. But I'm of the mind that I never 458 00:20:29,640 --> 00:20:33,359 Speaker 1: considered it to even be a like paid position. What 459 00:20:33,480 --> 00:20:35,840 Speaker 1: is the point of this and are they suggesting perhaps 460 00:20:35,920 --> 00:20:38,840 Speaker 1: that because there's a trillion dollars an unpaid family care. 461 00:20:38,960 --> 00:20:40,400 Speaker 1: Somebody needs to be paid for this. 462 00:20:41,240 --> 00:20:42,600 Speaker 2: Well, I don't think it's that so much. It's just 463 00:20:42,640 --> 00:20:45,440 Speaker 2: the overall economic impact of it. Yeah, that's a part 464 00:20:45,520 --> 00:20:50,040 Speaker 2: of it, because not so much because of you know, well, 465 00:20:50,040 --> 00:20:52,000 Speaker 2: I mean, I think it's focused on the idea that 466 00:20:52,040 --> 00:20:54,359 Speaker 2: somebody is sacrificing something. Right, So a lot of us 467 00:20:54,440 --> 00:20:56,960 Speaker 2: know somebody who is taking time off work, or perhaps 468 00:20:57,000 --> 00:20:59,680 Speaker 2: they quit their jobs entirely in the extreme situations, and 469 00:20:59,720 --> 00:21:02,520 Speaker 2: they need to move in with their parents, and now 470 00:21:02,560 --> 00:21:04,760 Speaker 2: everybody is living off of that one or two Social 471 00:21:04,760 --> 00:21:08,520 Speaker 2: Security checks that the elderly person has in that situation. 472 00:21:08,880 --> 00:21:11,520 Speaker 2: So I think it's not so much a headline that 473 00:21:11,800 --> 00:21:13,720 Speaker 2: there are people out there doing this, it's how many 474 00:21:13,760 --> 00:21:16,720 Speaker 2: and how much it's increased over time. So the estimates 475 00:21:16,720 --> 00:21:20,359 Speaker 2: are that this is a trillion dollars shadow economy, up 476 00:21:20,359 --> 00:21:23,200 Speaker 2: about sixty seven percent from six hundred billion and twenty 477 00:21:23,240 --> 00:21:27,080 Speaker 2: twenty one, there's about fifty nine million caregivers out there, 478 00:21:27,119 --> 00:21:30,480 Speaker 2: delivering about fifty billion hours of care per year. That's 479 00:21:30,520 --> 00:21:34,000 Speaker 2: equivalent to twenty four million full time workers, or seventeen 480 00:21:34,040 --> 00:21:36,719 Speaker 2: percent of the workforce. And since this is an unpaid workforce, 481 00:21:36,760 --> 00:21:39,840 Speaker 2: that means These are people who some percentage of probably 482 00:21:39,880 --> 00:21:42,439 Speaker 2: a decent amount of whom probably would otherwise be working 483 00:21:42,480 --> 00:21:45,200 Speaker 2: in the actual labor force, the paid labor force, which 484 00:21:45,200 --> 00:21:48,520 Speaker 2: means we've got issues with taxation, economic growth, and those 485 00:21:48,600 --> 00:21:51,720 Speaker 2: kinds of things. And if this was a stable number, 486 00:21:51,720 --> 00:21:53,760 Speaker 2: if this was the same figure we had seen forever, 487 00:21:54,280 --> 00:21:55,920 Speaker 2: then maybe not that big of a deal. Been two 488 00:21:55,920 --> 00:21:57,639 Speaker 2: thousand and six it was seven to eight percent of 489 00:21:57,640 --> 00:21:59,840 Speaker 2: the workforce, about three hundred and ten billion dollars worth 490 00:21:59,840 --> 00:22:03,760 Speaker 2: of of missed economic benefits there nine to ten percent 491 00:22:04,080 --> 00:22:05,520 Speaker 2: from about twenty nine to thirteen. 492 00:22:05,760 --> 00:22:07,719 Speaker 3: Now we're up to sixteen to seven percent. 493 00:22:08,080 --> 00:22:10,400 Speaker 2: And the reason this is happening, Brian, is this will 494 00:22:10,400 --> 00:22:12,960 Speaker 2: come as no shock baby er in middle It's exactly, 495 00:22:13,000 --> 00:22:16,200 Speaker 2: it's baby boomers. It's a phenomenon called peak sixty five 496 00:22:16,240 --> 00:22:19,200 Speaker 2: where we've got the highest percentage of the population ever 497 00:22:19,480 --> 00:22:21,879 Speaker 2: turning sixty five, and that's going to happen through the 498 00:22:22,000 --> 00:22:24,520 Speaker 2: year twenty twenty seven. So we're probably going to continue 499 00:22:24,560 --> 00:22:27,800 Speaker 2: to see these numbers go up of people exiting their 500 00:22:28,000 --> 00:22:31,000 Speaker 2: earning careers and moving into a position they may not 501 00:22:31,040 --> 00:22:33,159 Speaker 2: have a choice about taking care of loved ones for 502 00:22:33,280 --> 00:22:35,840 Speaker 2: no income whatsoever. And that trickles through to lack of 503 00:22:35,920 --> 00:22:37,520 Speaker 2: economic growth and taxation as well. 504 00:22:37,600 --> 00:22:39,400 Speaker 1: Now there may be a lot of baby boomers out 505 00:22:39,440 --> 00:22:42,359 Speaker 1: there regretting their decision that they were not going to 506 00:22:42,400 --> 00:22:44,800 Speaker 1: have children because fill in the blank, I'm not going 507 00:22:44,840 --> 00:22:46,840 Speaker 1: to have kids, don't have time, too expensive, they're going 508 00:22:46,840 --> 00:22:48,200 Speaker 1: to kill the planet, blah blah blah. And then you 509 00:22:48,240 --> 00:22:51,919 Speaker 1: find yourself a retired adult, maybe in need of assistance, 510 00:22:51,960 --> 00:22:53,879 Speaker 1: and you turn around and look for the children that 511 00:22:53,920 --> 00:22:55,359 Speaker 1: you didn't have and they're not there. 512 00:22:56,680 --> 00:22:58,600 Speaker 2: That's going to end. And I think that's the current 513 00:22:58,640 --> 00:23:00,280 Speaker 2: generations are going to go through that too. See that 514 00:23:00,359 --> 00:23:02,359 Speaker 2: cycle back around in thirty or forty years. That's not 515 00:23:02,400 --> 00:23:04,280 Speaker 2: a reason to go off and have a kid, because 516 00:23:04,280 --> 00:23:06,960 Speaker 2: I can't imagine being no kid and informed that that's. 517 00:23:06,840 --> 00:23:07,600 Speaker 3: Why you exist. 518 00:23:07,680 --> 00:23:09,320 Speaker 1: I think my dad wanted to have kids because this 519 00:23:09,400 --> 00:23:11,560 Speaker 1: was the days before television remotes, and I remember as 520 00:23:11,600 --> 00:23:13,439 Speaker 1: a small child, Dad was the one Brian, get up 521 00:23:13,480 --> 00:23:15,119 Speaker 1: and turn it to the Channel twelve, Brian, get up and 522 00:23:15,160 --> 00:23:17,359 Speaker 1: turn it to Channel Night. At least I had a 523 00:23:17,359 --> 00:23:19,240 Speaker 1: purpose in life as a young person. 524 00:23:19,320 --> 00:23:21,120 Speaker 3: Grab that antenna and stand on your left foot. 525 00:23:21,240 --> 00:23:26,280 Speaker 1: Yeah, well, ultimately not left other than the trend here. 526 00:23:26,960 --> 00:23:30,399 Speaker 1: Is this something that people should be considering, this idea 527 00:23:30,440 --> 00:23:32,720 Speaker 1: that you may need assistance when they're well planning for 528 00:23:32,760 --> 00:23:33,679 Speaker 1: their own retirement. 529 00:23:34,680 --> 00:23:37,119 Speaker 2: Yeah, I think it's definitely something to think about, because 530 00:23:37,320 --> 00:23:40,040 Speaker 2: the cost of in home help is about eighty thousand 531 00:23:40,040 --> 00:23:42,639 Speaker 2: dollars per year, and nursing home is more along the 532 00:23:42,640 --> 00:23:44,880 Speaker 2: lines of one hundred and fifteen thousand dollars a year. 533 00:23:45,280 --> 00:23:47,879 Speaker 2: I do want to caution people from worrying about you know, 534 00:23:47,920 --> 00:23:50,760 Speaker 2: that's a big number, but as we do the analysis, 535 00:23:50,800 --> 00:23:53,359 Speaker 2: for people who have built solid financial plans for themselves, 536 00:23:53,480 --> 00:23:56,040 Speaker 2: that's not an extra one hundred and fifteen thousand dollars 537 00:23:56,080 --> 00:23:58,119 Speaker 2: on top of your existing expenses. 538 00:23:58,160 --> 00:23:58,840 Speaker 3: We build a plan. 539 00:23:59,119 --> 00:24:01,480 Speaker 2: Obviously, we're going to deal with your living expenses, you know, 540 00:24:01,480 --> 00:24:04,199 Speaker 2: whatever you want to do during retirement, paying off the mortgage, traveling, 541 00:24:04,200 --> 00:24:06,160 Speaker 2: all those other things, maybe helping grandkids or your kids 542 00:24:06,200 --> 00:24:09,560 Speaker 2: or whatever. But this extra expense of this one hundred 543 00:24:09,560 --> 00:24:12,159 Speaker 2: and fifteen thousand will come after those things. You are 544 00:24:12,200 --> 00:24:15,400 Speaker 2: not running to the grocery store anymore, you're not traveling anymore, 545 00:24:15,400 --> 00:24:17,159 Speaker 2: you're not really helping the kids anymore. So a lot 546 00:24:17,200 --> 00:24:19,960 Speaker 2: of those things come off of the payroll. You don't 547 00:24:19,960 --> 00:24:21,639 Speaker 2: have to worry about them, and so it's not one 548 00:24:21,720 --> 00:24:23,840 Speaker 2: hundred and fifteen thousand on top of what you were doing. 549 00:24:23,880 --> 00:24:26,000 Speaker 2: A lot of it is blended in. That doesn't mean 550 00:24:26,040 --> 00:24:27,919 Speaker 2: it's you know, that doesn't mean it's not a problem. 551 00:24:27,960 --> 00:24:30,240 Speaker 2: It's definitely something to plan for, but it's not something 552 00:24:30,280 --> 00:24:32,680 Speaker 2: to ruin your retirement worrying over well. 553 00:24:32,720 --> 00:24:34,960 Speaker 1: And another reason, have a financial planner who can talk 554 00:24:35,000 --> 00:24:36,920 Speaker 1: you off the ledge when you're starting to think about 555 00:24:36,920 --> 00:24:38,560 Speaker 1: this and oh my god, how am I going to 556 00:24:38,600 --> 00:24:41,240 Speaker 1: be able to fill in the blank. Brian James and 557 00:24:41,320 --> 00:24:45,160 Speaker 1: others in his profession are skilled in dealing with clients 558 00:24:45,200 --> 00:24:47,040 Speaker 1: to either talk them off the ledge or explain how 559 00:24:47,040 --> 00:24:51,000 Speaker 1: it can be accomplished. It's the appropriate planning. I'm glad 560 00:24:51,040 --> 00:24:52,919 Speaker 1: I've got one. Brian James, thank you so much for 561 00:24:52,960 --> 00:24:54,800 Speaker 1: your time each and every week. Appreciate the insights and 562 00:24:54,800 --> 00:24:56,800 Speaker 1: the thoughtful conversation. We'll do it again next Monday. 563 00:24:56,800 --> 00:24:58,960 Speaker 3: I hope you have a great week you too, Go Red, 564 00:24:59,040 --> 00:24:59,800 Speaker 3: Let's make it two series. 565 00:25:00,359 --> 00:25:02,400 Speaker 1: Amen to that, brother, I'll vote for that. Eight thirty 566 00:25:02,400 --> 00:25:02,600 Speaker 1: six