1 00:00:00,560 --> 00:00:03,480 Speaker 1: So the New York City mayor is using the Signal 2 00:00:03,560 --> 00:00:09,920 Speaker 1: App to communicate with other officials. This viilates New York's. 3 00:00:09,640 --> 00:00:11,240 Speaker 2: Open record law. 4 00:00:12,080 --> 00:00:15,160 Speaker 1: Who's he talking to? What are they saying? You would 5 00:00:15,200 --> 00:00:19,200 Speaker 1: think after several scandals revolving the Signal App that people 6 00:00:19,200 --> 00:00:22,320 Speaker 1: would avoid this, but nope, there he goes. 7 00:00:24,160 --> 00:00:26,000 Speaker 3: Well, I would put a different way. You would think 8 00:00:26,040 --> 00:00:29,040 Speaker 3: after the controversy, that somebody would be reporting and doing 9 00:00:29,080 --> 00:00:32,839 Speaker 3: Freedom of Information I requests and asking him directly, just 10 00:00:33,000 --> 00:00:35,120 Speaker 3: point blank at a press cards, what are you talking about? 11 00:00:35,440 --> 00:00:38,240 Speaker 4: What are you trying to hide? But we can't do that. 12 00:00:38,200 --> 00:00:40,960 Speaker 3: Because, well, because he's Muslim, so we can't ask that question. 13 00:00:41,840 --> 00:00:46,800 Speaker 3: I want to talk about some breaking news this morning 14 00:00:47,640 --> 00:00:51,640 Speaker 3: about the Iranian situation, and then absent any other breaking 15 00:00:51,680 --> 00:00:55,080 Speaker 3: news during this hour. Then in the third hour, I 16 00:00:55,120 --> 00:00:58,360 Speaker 3: want to go to just some other stories because quite frankly, 17 00:00:58,440 --> 00:01:03,480 Speaker 3: I'm tired of this, which I find in and of 18 00:01:03,520 --> 00:01:11,520 Speaker 3: itself interesting. We are engaged in significant military operations that 19 00:01:11,680 --> 00:01:14,880 Speaker 3: are part of a huge chess game to realign the 20 00:01:14,880 --> 00:01:17,560 Speaker 3: world order, and I still maintain this is all about China. 21 00:01:19,280 --> 00:01:22,280 Speaker 3: You will not talk me off that ledge unless you 22 00:01:22,319 --> 00:01:25,680 Speaker 3: can show me some data points that might point me 23 00:01:25,720 --> 00:01:27,559 Speaker 3: in a different direction. But right now, I still believe 24 00:01:27,600 --> 00:01:30,479 Speaker 3: this is all about China. Yes, I know, it's also 25 00:01:30,520 --> 00:01:33,840 Speaker 3: about Israel, and it's about the Middle East, and it's 26 00:01:33,880 --> 00:01:37,520 Speaker 3: all of that. But it's part of Trump's global maneuvering 27 00:01:38,160 --> 00:01:41,000 Speaker 3: to put us in this is truly America first, to 28 00:01:41,000 --> 00:01:44,199 Speaker 3: put us back in a position where we can truly 29 00:01:44,280 --> 00:01:50,640 Speaker 3: exercise a peace through strength. But there's also some other 30 00:01:50,680 --> 00:01:52,520 Speaker 3: news I want to get to, so we'll get to 31 00:01:52,560 --> 00:01:57,440 Speaker 3: that in the next hour. This morning, Israeli airstrikes hits 32 00:01:57,480 --> 00:02:01,639 Speaker 3: the headquarters of the Assembly of Experts, that's the body 33 00:02:01,680 --> 00:02:06,040 Speaker 3: that is constitutionally tasked to choose Iran's next Supreme leader. 34 00:02:06,760 --> 00:02:10,799 Speaker 3: An Israeli defense source confirmed that the if the air 35 00:02:10,840 --> 00:02:17,200 Speaker 3: force targeted the building, what they're just defences targeted the 36 00:02:17,240 --> 00:02:21,799 Speaker 3: building while the senior clerics had convened to select common 37 00:02:21,840 --> 00:02:28,600 Speaker 3: a successor. Did did you did you not understand why 38 00:02:28,680 --> 00:02:32,079 Speaker 3: you are meeting? Did you understand when you did the 39 00:02:32,160 --> 00:02:39,560 Speaker 3: roll call? And you know, you know, Mohammad here, Momad here, 40 00:02:40,360 --> 00:02:47,519 Speaker 3: momaed silence, where's Mohammed number three? Oh, he was at 41 00:02:47,600 --> 00:02:51,520 Speaker 3: breakfast with the Supreme Leader when they blew the you know, 42 00:02:51,639 --> 00:02:56,680 Speaker 3: what out of the place. Oh okay, okay, Well we 43 00:02:56,760 --> 00:02:59,360 Speaker 3: got a quorum, we got we got plenty of people here, 44 00:03:00,240 --> 00:03:01,960 Speaker 3: and they're really stupid. 45 00:03:03,639 --> 00:03:04,720 Speaker 4: So the strike. 46 00:03:04,480 --> 00:03:09,600 Speaker 3: Itself is verified by both sides, because Iran's own news 47 00:03:09,639 --> 00:03:13,400 Speaker 3: agency has confirmed it too. Here's the critical unknown, that's 48 00:03:13,440 --> 00:03:19,160 Speaker 3: the casualty count. Iran International reported a formal session of 49 00:03:19,200 --> 00:03:22,480 Speaker 3: this assembly was underway when the site was attacked, but 50 00:03:22,560 --> 00:03:25,160 Speaker 3: an Iranian report later claimed the building was empty when 51 00:03:25,160 --> 00:03:27,880 Speaker 3: it was hit. Now that's classic fog of war and 52 00:03:28,000 --> 00:03:31,760 Speaker 3: frankly given to Iran's in sending to minimize any psychological 53 00:03:31,800 --> 00:03:35,400 Speaker 3: impact the so called empty building claim. I think that 54 00:03:35,440 --> 00:03:38,960 Speaker 3: deserves serious skepticism. But step back and look at what 55 00:03:39,240 --> 00:03:43,120 Speaker 3: has been confirmed since the twenty eighth. Since Saturday when 56 00:03:43,120 --> 00:03:47,760 Speaker 3: this started, the IDF the Israeli Defense Forces had confirmed 57 00:03:47,760 --> 00:03:51,760 Speaker 3: the death of Iran's Army Chief of Staff, the Defense Minister, 58 00:03:52,160 --> 00:03:56,880 Speaker 3: the IRGC commander, Supreme Leader, Senior Adviser, and Supreme Leader 59 00:03:56,920 --> 00:04:01,600 Speaker 3: Military Bureau chief, all killed in the open strikes. The 60 00:04:01,720 --> 00:04:04,480 Speaker 3: IDF has also confirmed the deaths of the head of 61 00:04:04,520 --> 00:04:10,240 Speaker 3: the intelligence for Iran's Emergency Command and the Emergency Chief 62 00:04:10,800 --> 00:04:16,320 Speaker 3: Passon Jabal Amilion or whatever. Iran's Organization of Defense and 63 00:04:16,440 --> 00:04:17,719 Speaker 3: Innovation Research. 64 00:04:18,000 --> 00:04:18,839 Speaker 4: He was ahead of that. 65 00:04:19,440 --> 00:04:23,920 Speaker 3: It's essentially the institutional brain behind the nuclear weapons program. 66 00:04:24,200 --> 00:04:29,160 Speaker 3: Killing that head is not trivial, that's significant. Initial estimates 67 00:04:29,160 --> 00:04:34,159 Speaker 3: from US officials suggest the opening strikes alone killed approximately 68 00:04:34,279 --> 00:04:39,320 Speaker 3: forty Iranian senior officials. But here's the legal and the 69 00:04:39,360 --> 00:04:42,479 Speaker 3: political framework that I want you to kind of get 70 00:04:42,480 --> 00:04:47,680 Speaker 3: in your head. Under Iran's constitution, a three person Leadership 71 00:04:47,760 --> 00:04:51,400 Speaker 3: Council now holds power until a new Supreme Leader is 72 00:04:51,480 --> 00:04:56,719 Speaker 3: named that comprises the moderate the current President, the hardline, 73 00:04:56,800 --> 00:05:02,040 Speaker 3: the chief Justice, and the senior cleric. The problem, well, 74 00:05:02,200 --> 00:05:06,440 Speaker 3: many the IRGC figures that the CIA had previously assessed 75 00:05:06,440 --> 00:05:11,680 Speaker 3: as potential culmina successors have probably now been killed, and 76 00:05:11,760 --> 00:05:16,839 Speaker 3: the IRGC may be blamed for Iran's continuing military setbacks, 77 00:05:17,000 --> 00:05:21,760 Speaker 3: making the IRGC less likely a successor will be drawn 78 00:05:21,800 --> 00:05:25,600 Speaker 3: from that particular group. Now, all the so called expert 79 00:05:25,720 --> 00:05:30,919 Speaker 3: class really wanted someone from that group, I really don't, 80 00:05:31,320 --> 00:05:35,359 Speaker 3: because I don't trust anybody who's a member of that group. 81 00:05:35,480 --> 00:05:38,240 Speaker 3: Are there some are there? Probably some potential defectors in 82 00:05:38,279 --> 00:05:43,080 Speaker 3: that group, Yes, but until I see them truly vetted 83 00:05:44,080 --> 00:05:48,839 Speaker 3: by covert ops that can tell us, and not that 84 00:05:48,880 --> 00:05:51,840 Speaker 3: they're going to tell us, but at least tell American 85 00:05:51,880 --> 00:05:56,280 Speaker 3: advisors that they truly are willing to defect and they 86 00:05:56,320 --> 00:05:58,600 Speaker 3: really were all moderate and they were just in the 87 00:05:58,640 --> 00:06:01,479 Speaker 3: IRGC to say their own butts. Then I'm going to 88 00:06:01,480 --> 00:06:05,039 Speaker 3: remain skeptical. But the point is I want. The point 89 00:06:05,080 --> 00:06:06,720 Speaker 3: I want to make is I don't want to get 90 00:06:06,760 --> 00:06:09,880 Speaker 3: buried in that is that this is a massive structural disruption. 91 00:06:10,720 --> 00:06:17,400 Speaker 3: The IRGC was always the king maker in any succession scenario. 92 00:06:17,720 --> 00:06:22,000 Speaker 3: Now it's lost the top commanders and lost potentially their 93 00:06:22,000 --> 00:06:25,479 Speaker 3: political legitimacy within the regime regime, all. 94 00:06:25,320 --> 00:06:26,200 Speaker 4: At the same time. 95 00:06:26,240 --> 00:06:32,000 Speaker 3: Simultaneously, Kamine had apparently pre selected three clerical candidates. 96 00:06:32,400 --> 00:06:34,840 Speaker 4: I can't pronounce their names, but that list. 97 00:06:34,680 --> 00:06:38,320 Speaker 3: Is now competing with the reality of an eighty eight 98 00:06:38,400 --> 00:06:43,320 Speaker 3: member body that can't convene safely. Any number of which 99 00:06:43,560 --> 00:06:47,560 Speaker 3: all eighty eight, sixty eight, forty eight, eighteen I don't know. 100 00:06:47,680 --> 00:06:49,760 Speaker 3: But that body tried to convene and they got the 101 00:06:50,000 --> 00:06:54,800 Speaker 3: crap blown out of them. That's amazing. It's amazing that one. 102 00:06:55,400 --> 00:06:59,880 Speaker 3: Clearly it's not just signal intelligence, it's human intelligence too. 103 00:07:00,240 --> 00:07:02,440 Speaker 3: By that, I mean It's not just the electronic stuff, 104 00:07:02,520 --> 00:07:07,640 Speaker 3: it's just out satellite imagery. It's actually agents or at 105 00:07:07,720 --> 00:07:12,200 Speaker 3: least assets on the ground that are relaying to the 106 00:07:12,240 --> 00:07:16,880 Speaker 3: IDF and the Masade. Hey, guess what the group's gonna 107 00:07:16,960 --> 00:07:20,640 Speaker 3: They're gonna have breakfast again. Yeah, it's a great you know, 108 00:07:21,520 --> 00:07:23,880 Speaker 3: they offered a great maface. So they're all showing up 109 00:07:24,360 --> 00:07:28,920 Speaker 3: and they did. So that strike is not just kinetic. 110 00:07:29,880 --> 00:07:35,080 Speaker 3: It's a signal Israel and the United States are deliberately targeting, 111 00:07:35,560 --> 00:07:41,800 Speaker 3: targeting the mechanism of regime reconstitution. They're not just going 112 00:07:41,800 --> 00:07:46,080 Speaker 3: after the current leadership, They're going after the mechanism by 113 00:07:46,120 --> 00:07:50,280 Speaker 3: which it would reconstitute itself. Now analysts will note that 114 00:07:50,320 --> 00:07:54,480 Speaker 3: there is meaningful market speculation reflected even on their prediction markets, 115 00:07:54,920 --> 00:07:57,240 Speaker 3: around whether the Office of the Supreme Leader gets the 116 00:07:57,600 --> 00:08:04,880 Speaker 3: abolished entirely rather than filled with somebodybody else. Going back 117 00:08:04,880 --> 00:08:10,360 Speaker 3: to the Atlantic again, you made little footnote here. Why 118 00:08:10,400 --> 00:08:13,640 Speaker 3: am I citying the Council and Foreignulations and the Atlantic 119 00:08:13,720 --> 00:08:17,200 Speaker 3: Council and some of the others right now, Because as 120 00:08:17,280 --> 00:08:21,600 Speaker 3: much as they may be left leaning, they nonetheless are 121 00:08:21,840 --> 00:08:26,160 Speaker 3: good sources for factual information about what's going on. The 122 00:08:26,200 --> 00:08:31,320 Speaker 3: ground strategically, so I can I can recognize that for 123 00:08:31,640 --> 00:08:35,480 Speaker 3: you know, maybe domestic issues, I might push them aside. 124 00:08:35,600 --> 00:08:39,560 Speaker 3: For foreign information, I might look at the reporting, the 125 00:08:39,679 --> 00:08:43,720 Speaker 3: factual reporting about what's going on. And here they point 126 00:08:43,720 --> 00:08:49,680 Speaker 3: out the Kammene's death as less from foreign firepower than within, 127 00:08:50,559 --> 00:08:55,319 Speaker 3: arguing that his defenses failed ultimately because of betrayals that 128 00:08:55,440 --> 00:08:56,360 Speaker 3: was bred by the. 129 00:08:56,280 --> 00:08:59,680 Speaker 4: System that he set up. Now that's the thesis I 130 00:08:59,679 --> 00:09:02,600 Speaker 4: want you to think about. This is not just bombs. 131 00:09:03,360 --> 00:09:06,640 Speaker 3: It's the system that had been already hauled out by 132 00:09:06,679 --> 00:09:11,320 Speaker 3: the January twenty twenty six massacre protesters, the economic collapse 133 00:09:11,360 --> 00:09:14,160 Speaker 3: that's going on, and the population that took to the 134 00:09:14,200 --> 00:09:18,400 Speaker 3: streets both in Tehran and in Los Angeles celebrating and 135 00:09:18,480 --> 00:09:19,240 Speaker 3: saying thank. 136 00:09:19,040 --> 00:09:23,280 Speaker 4: You to Donald Trump. So the comb strike. 137 00:09:23,080 --> 00:09:25,920 Speaker 3: Today is verified as a real attack on the assembly 138 00:09:25,960 --> 00:09:32,760 Speaker 3: of experts building. Casualties from that specific strike remain unconfirmed 139 00:09:32,800 --> 00:09:35,480 Speaker 3: and are contested, but the cumulative effect of five days 140 00:09:35,480 --> 00:09:38,760 Speaker 3: of strikes has been the confirmed killing of essentially Iran's 141 00:09:38,960 --> 00:09:44,439 Speaker 3: entire military security command structure. The regime has a constitutional 142 00:09:44,480 --> 00:09:48,360 Speaker 3: process for succession, and Israel just bombed the crap out 143 00:09:48,360 --> 00:09:51,760 Speaker 3: of the room where that process was supposed to happen. Now, 144 00:09:51,800 --> 00:09:54,760 Speaker 3: whether anyone was in it at the time almost doesn't 145 00:09:54,800 --> 00:09:55,319 Speaker 3: really matter. 146 00:09:55,360 --> 00:09:56,120 Speaker 4: Strategically. 147 00:09:56,960 --> 00:10:01,440 Speaker 3: The message is the missile, and missile delivers this message 148 00:10:01,440 --> 00:10:04,040 Speaker 3: written on the side of it. There's no safe place 149 00:10:04,720 --> 00:10:07,360 Speaker 3: for you to gather and try to reconstitute this regime. 150 00:10:09,360 --> 00:10:14,920 Speaker 3: So then I got to thinking what elements are needed? 151 00:10:14,960 --> 00:10:16,880 Speaker 3: I want you to think about this. What elements do 152 00:10:16,920 --> 00:10:20,080 Speaker 3: we need for a popular uprising of the people who 153 00:10:20,120 --> 00:10:22,880 Speaker 3: want to return to some form, whatever it might be, 154 00:10:23,000 --> 00:10:27,800 Speaker 3: a freedom based form of government. What if anything, can 155 00:10:27,880 --> 00:10:32,400 Speaker 3: anybody do to create or to expose those elements in 156 00:10:32,520 --> 00:10:36,160 Speaker 3: order to get people back on the streets in Iran 157 00:10:36,360 --> 00:10:43,400 Speaker 3: itself and then open up the country to genuine regime change. 158 00:10:43,679 --> 00:10:46,800 Speaker 3: I think this is one of the most consequential questions 159 00:10:47,480 --> 00:10:51,760 Speaker 3: of this entire operation, and I think it's worth treating 160 00:10:51,760 --> 00:10:54,120 Speaker 3: it with a little bit of rigor, because the history 161 00:10:54,160 --> 00:10:58,800 Speaker 3: of US backed or US adjacent regime change is, to 162 00:10:58,840 --> 00:11:02,840 Speaker 3: put it charitably, kind of a mixed bag. So let's 163 00:11:02,880 --> 00:11:05,680 Speaker 3: be a little rigorous and honest about what the political 164 00:11:05,679 --> 00:11:08,760 Speaker 3: science literature actually tells us, what's unique about this moment, 165 00:11:09,120 --> 00:11:15,280 Speaker 3: and what leavers exist to really to effect some regime change. 166 00:11:16,400 --> 00:11:20,160 Speaker 3: There's a book, a great book that every political science 167 00:11:20,240 --> 00:11:21,599 Speaker 3: has read at one time or now, they call the 168 00:11:21,600 --> 00:11:28,280 Speaker 3: Anatomy of a Revolution. These books and others identify a 169 00:11:28,320 --> 00:11:34,920 Speaker 3: fairly consistent set of preconditions, and right now Iran checks 170 00:11:34,960 --> 00:11:38,160 Speaker 3: several of them in ways that it never has before. 171 00:11:38,880 --> 00:11:43,960 Speaker 3: And it checks these boxes simultaneously. So the boxes are 172 00:11:44,080 --> 00:11:48,800 Speaker 3: one elite fracture to a state fiscal crist or an 173 00:11:48,920 --> 00:11:55,520 Speaker 3: economic collapse. Three loss of regime legitimacy. We talk about 174 00:11:55,559 --> 00:11:58,320 Speaker 3: legitimacy in this country a lot about when you start 175 00:11:58,360 --> 00:12:02,160 Speaker 3: losing legitimacy, you start losing the republic. Well, Iran is 176 00:12:02,160 --> 00:12:08,080 Speaker 3: suffering a loss of regime legitimacy for a coordinated opposition 177 00:12:08,840 --> 00:12:14,080 Speaker 3: with recognizable leadership. Those four elements, well I've had a 178 00:12:14,080 --> 00:12:19,440 Speaker 3: fifth one too, military security. How would I describe it? 179 00:12:19,520 --> 00:12:23,960 Speaker 3: Military security, force neutrality, or even defections? Maybe just in 180 00:12:24,000 --> 00:12:26,839 Speaker 3: a word, military defections or military neutrality. 181 00:12:27,320 --> 00:12:29,800 Speaker 4: Let's put it that way. So let's go through those. 182 00:12:30,400 --> 00:12:31,040 Speaker 4: There's elite. 183 00:12:31,080 --> 00:12:35,880 Speaker 3: There is fracturing among the elites, and that's arguably the 184 00:12:35,920 --> 00:12:41,320 Speaker 3: single most predictive variable because revolutions rarely succeed if the 185 00:12:41,400 --> 00:12:46,600 Speaker 3: elites are unified. They almost always require defections military officers 186 00:12:46,600 --> 00:12:50,080 Speaker 3: who refuse a fire, clerics who break with the establishment, 187 00:12:50,320 --> 00:12:53,160 Speaker 3: or security forces who stand up you know, who stand down. 188 00:12:54,040 --> 00:12:54,960 Speaker 4: Iran's elite is. 189 00:12:54,960 --> 00:12:59,920 Speaker 3: Now fractured in ways that are genuinely unprecedented. The ire 190 00:13:00,120 --> 00:13:03,160 Speaker 3: GC just lost its top commander. The army chief is dead, 191 00:13:03,440 --> 00:13:06,440 Speaker 3: the Defense minister is dead. The succession Council is an 192 00:13:06,480 --> 00:13:10,000 Speaker 3: awkward trio, moderate president, a hardline juris, and the clerics 193 00:13:10,040 --> 00:13:14,160 Speaker 3: trying not to get bombed. So you have no dominant 194 00:13:14,240 --> 00:13:18,920 Speaker 3: figure capable of consolidating authority and commanding loyalty at the 195 00:13:18,920 --> 00:13:23,559 Speaker 3: same time. That's not just a leadership vacuum, it's an 196 00:13:23,559 --> 00:13:29,040 Speaker 3: authority vacuum. And in an authority vacuum, lower level commanders 197 00:13:29,040 --> 00:13:33,400 Speaker 3: start making their own calculations about which side of this 198 00:13:33,600 --> 00:13:36,040 Speaker 3: battle do they want to be on, which side of 199 00:13:36,160 --> 00:13:39,079 Speaker 3: history do they want to be on, So that fracturing 200 00:13:39,160 --> 00:13:42,640 Speaker 3: is important, and I want you to watch that. The 201 00:13:42,720 --> 00:13:46,880 Speaker 3: second thing going on is the economic collapse their dollar. 202 00:13:46,960 --> 00:13:50,400 Speaker 3: The reel had already effected collapse before the first bomb 203 00:13:50,400 --> 00:13:54,960 Speaker 3: even fell, because the sanctions that we had imposed, mismanagement, 204 00:13:55,160 --> 00:13:58,240 Speaker 3: all the corruption had driven inflation to levels have made 205 00:13:58,320 --> 00:14:02,960 Speaker 3: ordinary life genuinely desperate for the Uranian middle class, the 206 00:14:03,000 --> 00:14:06,079 Speaker 3: same class that historically drives revolutions. It's not the poor 207 00:14:06,120 --> 00:14:08,640 Speaker 3: who lacked the resources to organize, and it's not the 208 00:14:08,679 --> 00:14:10,319 Speaker 3: elite because they've got too much to lose. 209 00:14:10,360 --> 00:14:11,760 Speaker 4: It's always the middle class. 210 00:14:13,040 --> 00:14:18,920 Speaker 3: The January twenty sixth protests were explicitly economic in origin, 211 00:14:19,640 --> 00:14:23,240 Speaker 3: and then they became political. That's the kindling to start 212 00:14:23,280 --> 00:14:27,760 Speaker 3: a fire. The strikes have now disrupted the oil infrastructure. 213 00:14:29,000 --> 00:14:34,160 Speaker 3: They've closed Dubai's airport. The economic pressure on ordinary Iranians 214 00:14:34,280 --> 00:14:38,520 Speaker 3: is about to get significantly worse. All of which the 215 00:14:38,560 --> 00:14:41,280 Speaker 3: attacks on the Saudi oil fields, the attack on the 216 00:14:41,320 --> 00:14:45,440 Speaker 3: Saudi refineries, the attack on the Kuwaiti airport, the attack 217 00:14:45,560 --> 00:14:49,160 Speaker 3: in the UAE hotels, all of that is accelerating the 218 00:14:49,200 --> 00:14:57,400 Speaker 3: timeline because the Gulf Cooperation Council is getting really pissed off. 219 00:14:58,880 --> 00:15:02,600 Speaker 3: The Crown Prince in Saudia is really ticked off that 220 00:15:02,640 --> 00:15:05,760 Speaker 3: they've come after his oil fields because that's the backbone 221 00:15:05,760 --> 00:15:09,600 Speaker 3: of their economy despite all of the reform movements. So 222 00:15:09,720 --> 00:15:15,400 Speaker 3: this fiscal crisis and the economic collapse is probably of 223 00:15:16,440 --> 00:15:18,880 Speaker 3: this stool I'm putting together, is one of the most 224 00:15:18,880 --> 00:15:25,800 Speaker 3: important legs, and then you have legitimacy. The regime had 225 00:15:25,800 --> 00:15:30,240 Speaker 3: a social contract, and that social contract, much like we 226 00:15:30,280 --> 00:15:33,280 Speaker 3: have a social contract, which I think is even in 227 00:15:33,320 --> 00:15:36,840 Speaker 3: our own country, is becoming freed, but in Iran it's 228 00:15:36,880 --> 00:15:40,360 Speaker 3: been ripped apart. But their social contact contract was kind 229 00:15:40,360 --> 00:15:43,560 Speaker 3: of this, we're gonna repress you, but we're gonna keep 230 00:15:43,600 --> 00:15:46,600 Speaker 3: you safe, and we're gonna provide order. And you, you know, 231 00:15:46,760 --> 00:15:49,040 Speaker 3: you little peons out there, can go about your business. 232 00:15:49,280 --> 00:15:51,400 Speaker 3: You can have your shops, you can have your businesses, 233 00:15:51,440 --> 00:15:52,920 Speaker 3: you can do all of that. You can have a 234 00:15:52,960 --> 00:15:55,440 Speaker 3: middle class. But we're gonna press you. And if you 235 00:15:55,480 --> 00:15:58,560 Speaker 3: do anything, if you step off the you know, the 236 00:15:58,680 --> 00:16:02,200 Speaker 3: yellow brick road at all, of course we'll offer you. 237 00:16:06,800 --> 00:16:11,680 Speaker 3: The January twenty twenty six protests were economic in origin 238 00:16:11,840 --> 00:16:16,800 Speaker 3: before they became political. So that was the beginning of 239 00:16:16,880 --> 00:16:22,080 Speaker 3: the loss of legitimacy. Now it's been shattered that social 240 00:16:22,160 --> 00:16:26,800 Speaker 3: contract because the Supreme leader is dead, the state's broadcasting 241 00:16:26,840 --> 00:16:31,480 Speaker 3: headquarters is bombed, Parliament's been targeted, the assembly of experts 242 00:16:31,520 --> 00:16:34,800 Speaker 3: can't safely meet. When a state can no longer project 243 00:16:34,840 --> 00:16:40,400 Speaker 3: the basic illusion of sovereign control and protection, its claim 244 00:16:40,480 --> 00:16:46,800 Speaker 3: to obedience, its mandate of obedience evaporates. So the celebrations 245 00:16:46,840 --> 00:16:50,200 Speaker 3: in the streets, not just in La but in isafm 246 00:16:50,480 --> 00:16:53,920 Speaker 3: Inshuras and Karaj and in Tean itself are the most 247 00:16:53,960 --> 00:16:59,120 Speaker 3: important data point here. These people, these are not people 248 00:16:59,120 --> 00:17:03,360 Speaker 3: indifferent to the regime. These are people that are relieved 249 00:17:03,760 --> 00:17:07,840 Speaker 3: that the regime is dying. So that legitimacy is a 250 00:17:07,960 --> 00:17:13,199 Speaker 3: cornerstone to actually having regime change. And then there's a 251 00:17:13,280 --> 00:17:17,320 Speaker 3: coordinated opposition that has recognizable leadership. You've got to have 252 00:17:17,560 --> 00:17:21,600 Speaker 3: an alternative. And this is where Iran situation gets complicated 253 00:17:21,760 --> 00:17:25,720 Speaker 3: and where the history of failed uprisings becomes instructive. Trust 254 00:17:25,720 --> 00:17:28,560 Speaker 3: to understand what's going on. The two thousand and nine 255 00:17:28,600 --> 00:17:33,000 Speaker 3: Green Movement, the twenty nineteen protests, the twenty twenty two 256 00:17:33,119 --> 00:17:37,480 Speaker 3: Women Life Freedom Movement, they all had energy, they all 257 00:17:37,480 --> 00:17:41,280 Speaker 3: had courage, They all went to the streets and they 258 00:17:41,280 --> 00:17:47,639 Speaker 3: all got crushed. Why because they lacked a leadership structure 259 00:17:48,119 --> 00:17:52,760 Speaker 3: that could translate those street protests into a political organization. 260 00:17:53,640 --> 00:17:59,120 Speaker 3: You need someone or something to rally around. Now, the diaspora, 261 00:17:59,359 --> 00:18:04,240 Speaker 3: all those Iranians living outside the country, they've got resident Palavi, 262 00:18:05,200 --> 00:18:09,440 Speaker 3: the exile, Crown prince. He's been very vocal. He has 263 00:18:09,600 --> 00:18:13,960 Speaker 3: genuine symbolic residents among older Iranians. I think he has 264 00:18:14,000 --> 00:18:18,840 Speaker 3: substantial support among the diaspora community. But whether he can 265 00:18:18,920 --> 00:18:23,440 Speaker 3: translate that into a legitimate governing claim inside the country, 266 00:18:24,359 --> 00:18:28,359 Speaker 3: I think it is genuinely uncertain. He's essentially been in 267 00:18:28,400 --> 00:18:32,920 Speaker 3: exile his entire adult life. He has no organizational infrastructure 268 00:18:32,960 --> 00:18:37,800 Speaker 3: inside the country. He's a flag. He is just one 269 00:18:37,880 --> 00:18:41,480 Speaker 3: person right now. He's not yet a government in waiting. 270 00:18:42,320 --> 00:18:42,600 Speaker 4: Now. 271 00:18:42,920 --> 00:18:46,520 Speaker 3: I confess here ignorance, ignorance of I don't know what 272 00:18:46,680 --> 00:18:49,840 Speaker 3: he's doing. I know he's making the rounds on TV. 273 00:18:50,280 --> 00:18:53,159 Speaker 3: He's making the rounds on Capitol Hill. He's making the 274 00:18:53,280 --> 00:18:57,879 Speaker 3: rounds with whatever he perceives as being within the diaspora 275 00:18:57,960 --> 00:19:01,720 Speaker 3: in this country and in Europe. He's making those rounds. 276 00:19:01,920 --> 00:19:04,479 Speaker 3: The sixty minutes interview, for example, was done in Paris. 277 00:19:05,359 --> 00:19:07,760 Speaker 3: Why do he do it in Paris? Because he's reaching 278 00:19:07,800 --> 00:19:12,440 Speaker 3: out to the diaspora there, so he could be the 279 00:19:12,440 --> 00:19:15,680 Speaker 3: one that they can rally around and we'll see. 280 00:19:15,960 --> 00:19:16,840 Speaker 4: Good morning, Mike. 281 00:19:17,480 --> 00:19:21,600 Speaker 5: I'm wondering if the United States and Israel have knocked 282 00:19:21,640 --> 00:19:26,240 Speaker 5: out everything, including most of its leaders, who is calling 283 00:19:26,440 --> 00:19:28,720 Speaker 5: the military shots at this point. 284 00:19:31,480 --> 00:19:34,280 Speaker 3: The answer to that is nobody knows right now, there's 285 00:19:34,320 --> 00:19:36,560 Speaker 3: got to be somebody in the IRGC that's doing it, 286 00:19:37,600 --> 00:19:41,760 Speaker 3: but that's fractured, and all they're doing right now is 287 00:19:42,200 --> 00:19:46,720 Speaker 3: whoever who you know, there's probably dozens of them and 288 00:19:46,800 --> 00:19:51,640 Speaker 3: whatever command posts they oversee. Right now, they're just launching missiles. 289 00:19:52,280 --> 00:19:54,480 Speaker 3: They're just putting in coordinates for targets that they have, 290 00:19:54,760 --> 00:19:58,040 Speaker 3: you know, pre planned, and they're just firing. They're just 291 00:19:58,080 --> 00:20:01,840 Speaker 3: firing away, which is I think a sign of the 292 00:20:01,880 --> 00:20:05,760 Speaker 3: fracturing that's part of the elite fracture that I talked 293 00:20:05,760 --> 00:20:09,240 Speaker 3: about in that last segment. That's one of the conditions 294 00:20:09,280 --> 00:20:15,440 Speaker 3: for a successful popular uprising. It's one of the horrible 295 00:20:15,520 --> 00:20:19,040 Speaker 3: consequences that you have to deal with if you're actually 296 00:20:19,280 --> 00:20:24,040 Speaker 3: wanting to engage in regime change, which, whether we want 297 00:20:24,080 --> 00:20:26,720 Speaker 3: to admit it or not, that's what we're really after. 298 00:20:28,320 --> 00:20:39,800 Speaker 3: We want the old theocratic the islamis gone and we 299 00:20:39,840 --> 00:20:43,920 Speaker 3: want something like which just shows how stupid we are 300 00:20:43,960 --> 00:20:47,240 Speaker 3: sometimes over history. We want to go back to what 301 00:20:47,320 --> 00:20:50,720 Speaker 3: we had before, maybe not exactly, I'm not sure that 302 00:20:50,760 --> 00:20:53,720 Speaker 3: we want, you know, another monarch there that we control, 303 00:20:54,400 --> 00:20:57,840 Speaker 3: and then then we get tired of him, we just 304 00:20:57,920 --> 00:21:00,240 Speaker 3: let him go and well, you know, we'll just let 305 00:21:00,240 --> 00:21:02,840 Speaker 3: this cleric that's, you know, an exile in London take over. 306 00:21:03,680 --> 00:21:07,560 Speaker 3: How that worked out for the fifty some hostages or 307 00:21:08,160 --> 00:21:12,200 Speaker 3: Bill Buckley that got tortured to death four hundred and 308 00:21:12,280 --> 00:21:18,320 Speaker 3: forty four days. So we're walking through these conditions for 309 00:21:18,400 --> 00:21:24,040 Speaker 3: a successful popular uprising, which is what we want. Elite fracture, 310 00:21:25,320 --> 00:21:28,960 Speaker 3: a fiscal crisis, and economic collapse. We got those two. 311 00:21:30,000 --> 00:21:36,080 Speaker 3: A loss of regime legitimacy that's occurring, a coordinated opposition 312 00:21:36,160 --> 00:21:37,600 Speaker 3: with recognizable leadership. 313 00:21:37,600 --> 00:21:38,560 Speaker 4: We just walked through that. 314 00:21:39,920 --> 00:21:43,120 Speaker 3: But then what about the military and the security forces 315 00:21:43,520 --> 00:21:48,440 Speaker 3: either becoming neutral or defecting. That's the decisive variable and 316 00:21:48,480 --> 00:21:51,400 Speaker 3: the one that you're referring to, and it's the hardest 317 00:21:51,400 --> 00:21:56,520 Speaker 3: one to engineer from the outside. The IRGC's BAJI, that's 318 00:21:56,560 --> 00:22:01,200 Speaker 3: the internal paramilitary force that does all the actual street 319 00:22:01,320 --> 00:22:05,720 Speaker 3: level repression. It's not the same as the regular Iranian army. 320 00:22:06,720 --> 00:22:12,760 Speaker 3: It's ideologically committed, it's financially incentivized. They've got enormous economic 321 00:22:12,800 --> 00:22:15,960 Speaker 3: interest in regime survival because that's how it's how they 322 00:22:15,960 --> 00:22:21,359 Speaker 3: make their riches, and it's structured specifically to function even 323 00:22:21,440 --> 00:22:26,800 Speaker 3: when the top leadership is decapitated. Now, however, with the 324 00:22:26,840 --> 00:22:31,480 Speaker 3: IRGC's top command structure now in ruins really shattered, those 325 00:22:31,600 --> 00:22:34,080 Speaker 3: mid level commanders that I'm talking about who run the 326 00:22:34,119 --> 00:22:39,280 Speaker 3: Boji operations are now operating without clear orders. They're acting reactionary, 327 00:22:39,320 --> 00:22:44,359 Speaker 3: They're acting reactively without clear authority, without clear protection. Now, 328 00:22:44,400 --> 00:22:47,159 Speaker 3: some percentage of them, at some point are going to 329 00:22:47,200 --> 00:22:50,760 Speaker 3: conclude that their interests are better served by standing down 330 00:22:51,160 --> 00:22:54,440 Speaker 3: or defective than being on the wrong side of history. 331 00:22:54,640 --> 00:22:58,880 Speaker 3: If big, if they believe the regime is actually failing, 332 00:23:00,560 --> 00:23:05,040 Speaker 3: that last conditional is everything. If the Bozzie believes the 333 00:23:05,080 --> 00:23:09,280 Speaker 3: regime is going to reconstitute and then reassert control, they're 334 00:23:09,320 --> 00:23:11,240 Speaker 3: just going to keep firing away like they are now. 335 00:23:12,000 --> 00:23:16,480 Speaker 3: If they believe it's actually over, they will with continuing bombardment, 336 00:23:16,680 --> 00:23:22,560 Speaker 3: they'll eventually melt away. The perception. You'll often talk about 337 00:23:22,560 --> 00:23:28,880 Speaker 3: how perception is reality. Here, the perception of irreversibility becomes 338 00:23:29,000 --> 00:23:34,240 Speaker 3: itself a force multiplier. It feeds on itself that perception 339 00:23:34,359 --> 00:23:38,639 Speaker 3: of reverse irreversibility. This is going to continue to decline, 340 00:23:38,760 --> 00:23:41,080 Speaker 3: This is going to continue to get worse. They're going 341 00:23:41,160 --> 00:23:45,320 Speaker 3: to continue to they know everything we're doing. The paranoia 342 00:23:45,320 --> 00:23:48,600 Speaker 3: is going to set in. And here's where we have 343 00:23:48,640 --> 00:23:55,000 Speaker 3: to be both realistic and unsentimental about history, think about 344 00:23:55,320 --> 00:24:00,639 Speaker 3: information warfare or breaking the information blockade. Already lost its 345 00:24:00,640 --> 00:24:05,360 Speaker 3: state broadcasters headquarters, so their ability to control the information 346 00:24:05,560 --> 00:24:10,440 Speaker 3: environment inside the country has been degraded. The most high 347 00:24:10,600 --> 00:24:15,720 Speaker 3: value external actors. The most high value thing that external 348 00:24:15,760 --> 00:24:20,600 Speaker 3: actors can do right now, and what Israel already initiated 349 00:24:20,600 --> 00:24:26,000 Speaker 3: on day one with cyber attacks and message campaigns, is 350 00:24:26,040 --> 00:24:29,720 Speaker 3: to now flood the information space inside the country with 351 00:24:29,800 --> 00:24:36,280 Speaker 3: three things. Accurate, very descriptive battlefield reporting that makes the 352 00:24:36,320 --> 00:24:43,480 Speaker 3: regimes defeat feel irreversible, specific messaging to the IRGC mid 353 00:24:43,560 --> 00:24:48,119 Speaker 3: level commanders about their personal safety and their immunity if 354 00:24:48,119 --> 00:24:53,439 Speaker 3: they would just stand down. And lastly, a credible picture 355 00:24:53,440 --> 00:24:57,400 Speaker 3: of what comes next. Now that's the hardest and most important. 356 00:24:57,880 --> 00:25:03,920 Speaker 3: People don't just rise against something, they rise toward something. 357 00:25:05,600 --> 00:25:12,280 Speaker 3: We've got to have structured immunity defection incentives now. For example, 358 00:25:12,359 --> 00:25:16,800 Speaker 3: Trump's Venezuela analogy is actually I would say I said 359 00:25:16,800 --> 00:25:21,159 Speaker 3: it was not applicable earlier, but it's operationally relevant here. 360 00:25:21,600 --> 00:25:26,200 Speaker 3: The explicit message to all of these commanders, all these 361 00:25:26,280 --> 00:25:29,359 Speaker 3: mid level people right now, keep your job except for 362 00:25:29,400 --> 00:25:33,600 Speaker 3: two people, which is what was used in Venezuela. Is 363 00:25:33,640 --> 00:25:38,399 Speaker 3: designed to lower the cost of defection for those people 364 00:25:38,440 --> 00:25:42,439 Speaker 3: in the security apparatus. The question is whether it's credible 365 00:25:42,560 --> 00:25:47,240 Speaker 3: enough to be believed. Given the ongoing strikes, the United 366 00:25:47,240 --> 00:25:49,919 Speaker 3: States and Israel need to make the defection pathway not 367 00:25:50,280 --> 00:25:55,359 Speaker 3: just open, but they need to actively publicize it with 368 00:25:55,520 --> 00:26:02,040 Speaker 3: specific names, specific turns, very specific guarantee. Just vague assurances 369 00:26:02,080 --> 00:26:04,880 Speaker 3: say hey, you can turn yourself in and we'll give 370 00:26:04,920 --> 00:26:07,760 Speaker 3: you immunity, or we're gonna blow the crap out of you. 371 00:26:07,880 --> 00:26:08,760 Speaker 4: Just that vague. 372 00:26:08,960 --> 00:26:12,120 Speaker 3: Those kind of vague things don't move generals or even 373 00:26:12,160 --> 00:26:18,720 Speaker 3: the mid level commandos who are calculating their personal survival odds. 374 00:26:20,400 --> 00:26:24,040 Speaker 3: So I expect and maybe it's ongoing. There are probably things. Again, 375 00:26:24,119 --> 00:26:27,280 Speaker 3: this goes to the information blackout. We don't really know 376 00:26:27,320 --> 00:26:30,720 Speaker 3: what's being told inside because we don't have any insight 377 00:26:30,840 --> 00:26:34,240 Speaker 3: into that right now. If we could get the Internet 378 00:26:34,359 --> 00:26:37,160 Speaker 3: back on, if we could stop the jamming of someone 379 00:26:37,160 --> 00:26:40,240 Speaker 3: explained to me that they'd heard that startlinks had been jammed, 380 00:26:40,520 --> 00:26:43,240 Speaker 3: if we can stop that jamming, so we can start 381 00:26:43,280 --> 00:26:47,360 Speaker 3: getting information into the population. That means they can start 382 00:26:47,359 --> 00:26:51,679 Speaker 3: getting information out. And at some point both Masade and 383 00:26:51,760 --> 00:26:54,320 Speaker 3: the CIA are gonna have to make a determination about 384 00:26:54,320 --> 00:26:56,800 Speaker 3: what information they provide, not just to you and me 385 00:26:56,880 --> 00:27:00,200 Speaker 3: as American citizens, or to Israeli's as a citizen of 386 00:27:00,240 --> 00:27:03,200 Speaker 3: our country who are involved in this, but to the 387 00:27:03,240 --> 00:27:08,240 Speaker 3: world in general, and admit it that that information flow 388 00:27:08,680 --> 00:27:13,879 Speaker 3: really starts back up. Seriously, that's when we can see 389 00:27:14,200 --> 00:27:17,240 Speaker 3: whether or not we're on the right path to actually 390 00:27:17,320 --> 00:27:21,439 Speaker 3: bringing this regime down. And then there's something else that 391 00:27:21,480 --> 00:27:25,119 Speaker 3: needs to be done. Actually a couple more things. We 392 00:27:25,240 --> 00:27:27,960 Speaker 3: got to protect, and we got to amplify the diaspora. 393 00:27:29,160 --> 00:27:33,560 Speaker 3: That two hundred thousand person Iranian community in Los Angeles, 394 00:27:33,960 --> 00:27:38,000 Speaker 3: that's not just some human interest story. It's a potential 395 00:27:38,200 --> 00:27:44,680 Speaker 3: organizational and financial base for a transitional opposition. So whether 396 00:27:44,720 --> 00:27:49,840 Speaker 3: it's Razor Polavi, the exile Crown Prince, or any other 397 00:27:49,960 --> 00:27:55,040 Speaker 3: diaspora leaders, they need resources, they need legitimacy, They need 398 00:27:55,080 --> 00:27:59,280 Speaker 3: most importantly, a clear political program, not just we want freedom, 399 00:28:00,520 --> 00:28:04,720 Speaker 3: but a specific constitutional framework that addresses the concerns of 400 00:28:04,960 --> 00:28:09,000 Speaker 3: the religious establishment, all the ethnic minorities. You got to 401 00:28:09,040 --> 00:28:12,400 Speaker 3: address what the Kurds want, the Asiris want, the Arabs want. 402 00:28:12,920 --> 00:28:15,440 Speaker 3: That's almost I think like thirty forty percent of the 403 00:28:15,600 --> 00:28:18,960 Speaker 3: Iranian population. And of course then you have the secular 404 00:28:19,080 --> 00:28:22,480 Speaker 3: urban middle class. You've got to address them too. They 405 00:28:22,560 --> 00:28:24,119 Speaker 3: just want to go about their lives. They want to 406 00:28:24,119 --> 00:28:28,800 Speaker 3: build bay. Those who are old enough remember life under 407 00:28:28,840 --> 00:28:32,119 Speaker 3: the Shaw, and while it may have been repressive, it 408 00:28:32,200 --> 00:28:35,840 Speaker 3: was repressive against those who wanted to destroy their way 409 00:28:35,840 --> 00:28:39,120 Speaker 3: of life and install the theocracy. That's why the Shaw 410 00:28:39,280 --> 00:28:42,200 Speaker 3: was repressive. Now we can argue that history all day long, 411 00:28:42,240 --> 00:28:43,800 Speaker 3: but I'm not going to do it right now. But 412 00:28:43,880 --> 00:28:48,120 Speaker 3: that's why he was repressing. So building that coalition is 413 00:28:48,280 --> 00:28:52,520 Speaker 3: harder than sounds. And historically, the moment a dictator falls 414 00:28:53,040 --> 00:28:56,640 Speaker 3: the opposition factions that united against him, will they start 415 00:28:56,640 --> 00:28:59,320 Speaker 3: fighting each other. If you don't believe me, just look 416 00:28:59,360 --> 00:29:04,120 Speaker 3: at Libya or Rack or Syria. I'm curious, did you 417 00:29:04,240 --> 00:29:07,920 Speaker 3: pick out a good drag costume for Gretta Limburger yet 418 00:29:10,640 --> 00:29:14,760 Speaker 3: picked out a lot for Greta a drag costume? No, 419 00:29:15,080 --> 00:29:17,480 Speaker 3: it is lim Burger Drag Day coming up or something. 420 00:29:17,840 --> 00:29:19,920 Speaker 2: The PrideFest is going to be doing some kind of 421 00:29:19,960 --> 00:29:21,560 Speaker 2: a doggy drag show. 422 00:29:23,640 --> 00:29:35,760 Speaker 3: Huh, well, I'm confused. I'm going to miss something here. 423 00:29:35,800 --> 00:29:38,560 Speaker 3: Only I thought drag. You're thinking too much into this. 424 00:29:38,840 --> 00:29:44,280 Speaker 3: I thought I thought drag was men dressing as women 425 00:29:44,640 --> 00:29:47,560 Speaker 3: or vice versa. So it can be women dressing as men. 426 00:29:47,680 --> 00:29:50,800 Speaker 3: I guess I've never seen a female drag show. Then 427 00:29:52,640 --> 00:29:55,520 Speaker 3: I have seen a male drag show, but I've never 428 00:29:55,560 --> 00:30:00,080 Speaker 3: seen a female drag show because Limburger's were female, So 429 00:30:00,200 --> 00:30:03,440 Speaker 3: I supposed to what put a tuxedo on them? 430 00:30:03,800 --> 00:30:07,240 Speaker 2: Think what drag queen? And then there's drag king, So 431 00:30:07,320 --> 00:30:07,960 Speaker 2: I think it does go. 432 00:30:08,280 --> 00:30:09,240 Speaker 4: I did not know that. 433 00:30:10,120 --> 00:30:13,200 Speaker 3: Well, you know, I've learned something that I just wish 434 00:30:13,280 --> 00:30:16,120 Speaker 3: i'd never even what I never cared about, And to 435 00:30:16,320 --> 00:30:18,520 Speaker 3: now I have a useless piece of information taking up 436 00:30:18,520 --> 00:30:18,920 Speaker 3: in neuron. 437 00:30:19,080 --> 00:30:22,440 Speaker 2: Who's the thought that that trucker would have learned you something. 438 00:30:22,400 --> 00:30:25,640 Speaker 3: Well exactly, And of course who else would bring that 439 00:30:25,760 --> 00:30:26,880 Speaker 3: topic up but him? 440 00:30:27,920 --> 00:30:32,640 Speaker 4: But him? So let's wind it up this way. 441 00:30:34,640 --> 00:30:37,680 Speaker 3: Military strikes are necessary, but they're not sufficient if we're 442 00:30:37,680 --> 00:30:41,880 Speaker 3: going to do regime change, because history is just littered 443 00:30:41,920 --> 00:30:46,480 Speaker 3: with decapitated regimes they got red reconstituted under you know, 444 00:30:46,600 --> 00:30:49,080 Speaker 3: new management with the same fundamental character. 445 00:30:49,240 --> 00:30:51,280 Speaker 4: Or characters. And why is that? 446 00:30:51,440 --> 00:30:56,760 Speaker 3: Because the underlying structures of control, patronage, and ideology outlasted 447 00:30:56,840 --> 00:30:57,680 Speaker 3: the individuals. 448 00:31:00,280 --> 00:31:00,680 Speaker 4: Not Iran. 449 00:31:00,800 --> 00:31:06,080 Speaker 3: Iraq is the nightmare scenario. The Bath Party's top leadership. 450 00:31:06,720 --> 00:31:14,040 Speaker 3: We United States destroyed them within weeks. That left us 451 00:31:14,240 --> 00:31:17,880 Speaker 3: nobody to run the government. So the insurgency lasted a 452 00:31:18,000 --> 00:31:23,280 Speaker 3: decade and its remnants became isis now. Iran is different 453 00:31:23,280 --> 00:31:28,160 Speaker 3: from Iraq and important ways. Iran has more educated population, 454 00:31:28,240 --> 00:31:32,240 Speaker 3: They're more urban, more connected to their diaspora. A revolutionary 455 00:31:32,320 --> 00:31:37,480 Speaker 3: generation is genuinely exhausted by its own revolution. And I 456 00:31:37,600 --> 00:31:41,080 Speaker 3: think the January protests lasted well now two months ago 457 00:31:41,640 --> 00:31:45,480 Speaker 3: were the largest since nineteen seventy nine. Those people that 458 00:31:45,520 --> 00:31:48,760 Speaker 3: were celebrating in the streets were not a fringe but 459 00:31:49,040 --> 00:31:51,960 Speaker 3: different from Iraq. Is not the same as will successfully 460 00:31:52,240 --> 00:31:57,160 Speaker 3: self organized into a stable liberal government. The elements are 461 00:31:57,280 --> 00:32:00,760 Speaker 3: there in a way that have never been simultaneously there before. 462 00:32:01,280 --> 00:32:07,200 Speaker 3: Economic collapse, elite fracture, leadership, vacuum information environment, degraded popular sentiment, 463 00:32:07,280 --> 00:32:12,280 Speaker 3: actively anti regime, and external military pressure all creating a 464 00:32:12,400 --> 00:32:18,160 Speaker 3: sense of irreversibility. But what's missing and what no amount 465 00:32:18,200 --> 00:32:23,040 Speaker 3: of bombing can supply is a credible, organized, internally legitimate 466 00:32:23,080 --> 00:32:27,640 Speaker 3: opposition that can step up fill the vacuum before either 467 00:32:27,680 --> 00:32:32,280 Speaker 3: a reconstituted hard line faction or worse, just pure chaos 468 00:32:32,960 --> 00:32:36,960 Speaker 3: steps in. So the clock is running and the window 469 00:32:37,000 --> 00:32:42,000 Speaker 3: for a genuine transition rather than a chaotic fragmentation, is 470 00:32:42,080 --> 00:32:44,400 Speaker 3: going to be measured in weeks, not in months. And 471 00:32:44,560 --> 00:32:47,040 Speaker 3: the single most valuable thing that we could be doing 472 00:32:47,160 --> 00:32:51,080 Speaker 3: right now, simultaneously with the bombing and the strikes, is 473 00:32:51,200 --> 00:32:55,360 Speaker 3: the unglamorous and the unsexy and the nontelligenic work of 474 00:32:55,480 --> 00:33:02,800 Speaker 3: political architecture, building a transitional framework, vetting the defection pathways, unifying, 475 00:33:03,440 --> 00:33:07,320 Speaker 3: unifying the diaspora, all the leadership in the diaspora, and 476 00:33:07,480 --> 00:33:09,640 Speaker 3: remember the diaspora is all over the world. It's not 477 00:33:09,800 --> 00:33:13,680 Speaker 3: just in Los Angeles, it's everywhere. And making the case 478 00:33:13,720 --> 00:33:17,600 Speaker 3: to the Iranian people not just that this regime is dying, 479 00:33:18,560 --> 00:33:21,000 Speaker 3: but that what comes next is actually worth fighting for. 480 00:33:22,560 --> 00:33:23,440 Speaker 4: That's the argument. 481 00:33:24,560 --> 00:33:29,560 Speaker 3: The bombs open the door, whether anyone walks through it constructively, 482 00:33:30,040 --> 00:33:33,880 Speaker 3: that's the entire ballgame. So whatever you're hearing in the 483 00:33:33,920 --> 00:33:36,720 Speaker 3: cabal right now, oh my gosh, we're running out of missiles. 484 00:33:37,120 --> 00:33:38,560 Speaker 3: I was gonna talk about that, but we'll talk about 485 00:33:38,560 --> 00:33:42,719 Speaker 3: that another day. You know, where we went to war 486 00:33:42,800 --> 00:33:45,320 Speaker 3: because we thought, you know, is Israel was gonna bomb first. 487 00:33:45,360 --> 00:33:49,360 Speaker 3: You know, whatever what Mark Larrubil said you yesterday, none 488 00:33:49,480 --> 00:33:54,360 Speaker 3: of that matters right now because we have two pathways. 489 00:33:54,720 --> 00:33:58,560 Speaker 3: One is to chaos and one is too serious regime change. 490 00:34:00,040 --> 00:34:03,280 Speaker 3: And now that we started the bombing, whether you prove 491 00:34:03,320 --> 00:34:05,920 Speaker 3: it or not, why don't we just decide that we're 492 00:34:05,960 --> 00:34:07,800 Speaker 3: going to make the best of it, and why don't 493 00:34:07,800 --> 00:34:10,600 Speaker 3: we do the really hard things that gives the diaspora 494 00:34:10,760 --> 00:34:16,400 Speaker 3: something or internally, internally and externally a reason to step up. 495 00:34:17,280 --> 00:34:19,720 Speaker 4: I've outlined all of those steps the last two hours. 496 00:34:20,320 --> 00:34:20,880 Speaker 4: Let's do them.