Speaker 1: This is America's Truncking Network with Kevin Gordon.
Speaker 2: Welcome aboard, thanks for tuning in. Happy New Year, January first,
Speaker 2: twenty twenty six. It's also the eighth day of Christmas.
Speaker 2: I want to start off thanking all you truckers out
Speaker 2: there on the highway tonight, not being at home with
Speaker 2: your families, not being able to celebrate the coming.
Speaker 1: Of the new year, the New Year's Eve.
Speaker 2: Celebrations and so on, because you are busy out there
Speaker 2: keeping the wheels of this economy rolling. Also first responders,
Speaker 2: everybody that's on the clock.
Speaker 1: Thank you to the police and.
Speaker 2: Fire, hospital workers, people that are there taking care of patients,
Speaker 2: food service employees all around the area, across the nation, Hotel,
Speaker 2: motel workers, what people are traveling, You've got to be
Speaker 2: taken care of. You've got to make sure that the
Speaker 2: people in the hotels are there. Store clerks, convenience store employees.
Speaker 2: As you're out there driving around and stopping by gas stations,
Speaker 2: take the time to say thank you to.
Speaker 1: Those people, to those people that.
Speaker 2: Are working and thank that just say thank you for
Speaker 2: being here. I mentioned this is the eighth to day
Speaker 2: of Christmas. Again, if you've been listening to the program
Speaker 2: of beginning. Well, I've talked about on Christmas Day, the
Speaker 2: fact that there's a misconception that the twelve days of
Speaker 2: Christmas are actually the twelve days before Christmas, that is,
Speaker 2: actually the days before Christmas is what is referred to
Speaker 2: well in Christian circles as the ads the advent period.
Speaker 2: It is the fourth Sunday you go back for Sundays
Speaker 2: before Christmas, and that is the gearing up and preparation
Speaker 2: for Advent than the twelve days of Christmas.
Speaker 1: Then begin.
Speaker 2: December fifth or twenty fifth, rather Christmas Day, and then
Speaker 2: go for twelve days until the twelfth night of January
Speaker 2: the fifth, and then on January the sixth is the
Speaker 2: celebration of the Epiphany, which is traditionally or through biblical accounts,
Speaker 2: when the Majei the three Wise Men visited Jesus, Mary,
Speaker 2: and Joseph. And so that has to do with the
Speaker 2: actual Christmas season itself and is kind of a misconception.
Speaker 2: And by the way, we've talked about this several times
Speaker 2: over the last week, So if you missed any part
Speaker 2: of that or missed any of our shows, make sure
Speaker 2: you hit up that iHeartRadio app and everything's right there,
Speaker 2: of course, brought to you by our friends at Rush
Speaker 2: Truck Centers. Now, as far as New Year's is concerned,
Speaker 2: the New Year Day itself, I love digging into some
Speaker 2: of these traditions and kind of a lighthearted type of thing,
Speaker 2: kind of light loosen things up or lighting things up.
Speaker 2: Today looking at the traditions and how this formulation, I'm
Speaker 2: always fascinated by how things develop, why things are the
Speaker 2: way they are, how certain words came together, what their
Speaker 2: meanings are, where they first appeared, and so on.
Speaker 1: This is something that just always fascinates me.
Speaker 2: Sivils civilizations around the world celebrating the start of each
Speaker 2: new year, or at least have been doing this for
Speaker 2: at least for millennia four thousand years.
Speaker 1: Today.
Speaker 2: Most New Year's celebrations begin, of course, last night to
Speaker 2: some of the thirty first New Year's Eve and the
Speaker 2: last day of the Georgian calendar, and continue for the
Speaker 2: early hours of January the first, So people are still
Speaker 2: out there having a great time reveling in the new
Speaker 2: year while we're here talking to each other here on
Speaker 2: the radio. Common traditions include attending parties, eating special New
Speaker 2: Year's foods, making resolutions for the new year and watching
Speaker 2: fire works displays. Now going back in history, the earliest
Speaker 2: recorded festivities in honor of new Year's date back more
Speaker 2: than four thousand years to the ancient Babylon. For the Babylonians,
Speaker 2: the first moon following the vernal equinox the day in
Speaker 2: late March and again in March, not January. In March,
Speaker 2: when an equal amount of sunlight and darkness heralded the
Speaker 2: start of a new year, they marked the occasion with
Speaker 2: massive religious festival called a key to, derived from the
Speaker 2: Samarian word for barley, which was cut in the spring
Speaker 2: and involved the traditional ritual for last about eleven days. Again,
Speaker 2: you know, festivities back then lasted for a long period
Speaker 2: of time in order for to realign the Roman calendar
Speaker 2: throughout the anti Let me skip getting ahead of myself here.
Speaker 2: Throughout antiquity, civilization around the world developed increasingly sophisticated calendars,
Speaker 2: typically pinning the first day of the year to the
Speaker 2: agri culture or astronomical event.
Speaker 1: In Egypt, for instance, the year.
Speaker 2: Began with the annual flooding of the Nile, which coincided
Speaker 2: with the rising of the stars serious the first.
Speaker 1: Day of the lunar new year.
Speaker 2: Meanwhile, occurred with the second new moon after the winter solstice.
Speaker 2: So going back to even Egypt, they had a different
Speaker 2: way of determining when the new year was after the
Speaker 2: centuries the calendar.
Speaker 1: Let me see early. I'm sorry, let's go here.
Speaker 2: The early Roman calendar consisted of ten months and three
Speaker 2: hundred and four days, with each new year beginning in
Speaker 2: the vernal equinox. According to tradition, it was created by Romulus,
Speaker 2: the founder of Rome, in the eighth century. Over the centuries,
Speaker 2: calendars fell out of sync these old calendars with the sun.
Speaker 1: In sync with the sun, and in.
Speaker 2: Forty six BC, Julius Caesar decided to solve the problem.
Speaker 2: By consulting with the most prominent astronomers and mathematicians of
Speaker 2: his time, he introduced the Julian calendar, which closely resembles
Speaker 2: the more modern Gregorian calendar that most countries around.
Speaker 1: The world use today.
Speaker 2: As part of his reform, Caesar instituted January first is
Speaker 2: the first day of the year, and that is pretty
Speaker 2: much caught on in terms of the celebrations. Tod of
Speaker 2: the month's name Janus, the Roman god of beginnings, whose
Speaker 2: two faces allow him to look back in the past
Speaker 2: and forward to the future. Now New Year's traditions and
Speaker 2: celebrations around the world previously mentioned going on for four
Speaker 2: thousand years. Revelers enjoy snacks for good luck. In Spain
Speaker 2: several other Spanish speaking countries, people bolt down a dozen grapes,
Speaker 2: symbolizing their hopes of the months ahead right before midnight.
Speaker 2: In many parts of the world, traditional New Year's dishes
Speaker 2: feature legoomes, which are thought to resemble coins and herald
Speaker 2: future financial success. Now I land to look this up,
Speaker 2: excuse me. Legomes basically include lentils. In Italy, black eyed
Speaker 2: peas and southern states. Also beans, peas, chickpeas, and soybeans
Speaker 2: are considered these legomes, so they resemble coins and are
Speaker 2: supposed to be doing with wealth.
Speaker 1: I found this fascinating.
Speaker 2: Because pigs represent progress and prosperity in some cultures. Pork
Speaker 2: appears on the New Year's eve table in Cuba, Austria, Hungary,
Speaker 2: Portugal and other countries. Now I thought that was kind
Speaker 2: of weird in terms of pigs being symbol of progress,
Speaker 2: But it goes back to if you look at chickens,
Speaker 2: if you look at cows and horses, how they scratch
Speaker 2: the earth. They are always doing it in a backwards
Speaker 2: motion pigs because the way they root, they actually put
Speaker 2: their snoot down and actually push forward to scratch the earth,
Speaker 2: and so a symbol of progress going forward instead of backwards.
Speaker 2: Of course, ring shaped cakes, pastries sign of the year, continuing.
Speaker 1: As far as what Mexico and elsewhere.
Speaker 2: In Sweden and Norway. Meanwhile, rice pudding with almond inside
Speaker 2: is served. Whoever finds that almonds can expect twelve months
Speaker 2: of good luck. Let's see what other things other customers
Speaker 2: are coming around the world. Of course, watching fireworks, all
Speaker 2: lang sign the all traditions that we do here in
Speaker 2: the United States, and so a lot of traditions. And
Speaker 2: I always, again, like I said, I always geek out
Speaker 2: on these kind of things. I always find it fascinating
Speaker 2: how traditions begin, how they evolve over the period of time,
Speaker 2: why they started in the first place, and just you know,
Speaker 2: how things happen and evolved. I just always find that
Speaker 2: very interesting. Coming up, we're going to be speaking with
Speaker 2: Phil Flynn. Of course, he is Price Futures Group.
Speaker 1: We quote him very often on this program.
Speaker 2: And he is the author of the Energy Report. He
Speaker 2: is a frequent contributor to Fox Business News as well
Speaker 2: as once in a while on the Fox Weather Channel.
Speaker 2: So looking forward to talking with him, talking about some
Speaker 2: of the things going on in the economy and kind
Speaker 2: of gear up for what we can expect in the
Speaker 2: new year. I'm Kevin Gordon, America's struck In Network seven
Speaker 2: hundred WLW.
Speaker 1: I want to.
Speaker 2: Welcome back to the program Phil Flynn. He is the
Speaker 2: senior analyst Price Futures Group, author of the Energy Report,
Speaker 2: and a contributor to Fox Business News. And I've actually
Speaker 2: seen him on the Fox Weather Channel. Phil, Welcome to
Speaker 2: the program, or welcome back to the program.
Speaker 3: Hey kick, Hey, thank you Kevin. So this is day
Speaker 3: five of Christmas. Do I get five golden rings for
Speaker 3: being here?
Speaker 1: Yes? Absolutely, absolutely.
Speaker 2: Good.
Speaker 3: With the way the gold prices are going today, that's
Speaker 3: going to be pretty good. But oh man, I've been
Speaker 3: watching the sewer market for the last twenty Oh my gosh,
Speaker 3: it's unlike anything I've ever seen before. I mean, we
Speaker 3: hit a record high last night eighty four dollars. We
Speaker 3: fallowed ten dollars and ounce, and even with that volatility,
Speaker 3: we're still cheap compared to gold. So the precious metals
Speaker 3: have been unbelievable.
Speaker 1: Absolutely. Well, by the way, how is your Christmas?
Speaker 3: It was wonderful. I must have got on the nice list.
Speaker 3: Thanks for whatever you did.
Speaker 2: Well, it was because of all your fantastic reporting and
Speaker 2: all of the stuff that you talk about in terms
Speaker 2: of your energy report and the economy.
Speaker 1: I'll tell you what, this economy is on fire.
Speaker 2: And what I'm seeing is that the only in my opinion,
Speaker 2: the only thing holding it back are these interest rates
Speaker 2: that I think people are sitting on the sidelines and saying, gee,
Speaker 2: do I make this investment? Do I do this so
Speaker 2: I incur that amount of money with a return on
Speaker 2: investment and so on. But I mean, you look at
Speaker 2: I mean, every time we turn around, there's a report
Speaker 2: that comes out, retail sales higher than expected, unemployment lower
Speaker 2: than expect. We had that jobs report on well, I
Speaker 2: guess it was Wednesday day early, the initial job is
Speaker 2: claims less than expected. And yet we have this drum
Speaker 2: beat from the spoon feder regurgitators in the mainstream media
Speaker 2: that we're actually on the precipice of a recession, and
Speaker 2: in my opinion, they're trying to manufacture a recession.
Speaker 4: You know, I think you're right.
Speaker 3: You know, a lot of times, you know, the mainstream press.
Speaker 3: You know, it's amazing some of the people that they
Speaker 3: have on the mainstream press really don't understand the economics.
Speaker 3: And I think you see that more and more when
Speaker 3: you see the type of questions you get. For example,
Speaker 3: one of the things that bothered me is when the
Speaker 3: mainstream press is saying, no, as soon as Donald Trump
Speaker 3: puts on sanctions, we're going to go on through a
Speaker 3: recession and an inflation is going to go through the roof.
Speaker 3: And of course that hasn't happened, you know, if you
Speaker 3: look at the historically inflationary Yeah.
Speaker 2: Yeah, well, and credit to you, and then credit to
Speaker 2: my economics professor. Way back in the day when I
Speaker 2: was at Xavier University. One of the things that was
Speaker 2: talked about the tariffs were the main driving force of
Speaker 2: income to the United States and it was only in
Speaker 2: the period of after the war World War two that
Speaker 2: tariffs on our goods going into the other countries kind
Speaker 2: of a protectionism mechanism for them. But the tariffs necessarily
Speaker 2: don't lead to inflation. And I think you was that
Speaker 2: Kevin O'Leary, Larry Kudlow and a couple of people in
Speaker 2: Fox business are some of the only people that I
Speaker 2: have heard other than you know, you and me saying
Speaker 2: that tariffs don't lead to inflation. It's out of control
Speaker 2: government spending.
Speaker 4: It's absolutely correct. That's in fact, that's the only way
Speaker 4: that cause inflation. And listen, when.
Speaker 3: There's tariffs to some prices go up. They absolutely do.
Speaker 3: But I can give you for every price increase, I
Speaker 3: can give you a price decrease as well. And we
Speaker 3: saw that for example, you know, in the price of grains.
Speaker 3: You know, the farmers don't like to hear that, obviously,
Speaker 3: but that's the truth. And grain prices went down when
Speaker 3: we had tariffs. So yeah, for every increase, there's a decrease.
Speaker 3: And what we're finding right now is that it's actually
Speaker 3: lowering inflation because when we take in more money to
Speaker 3: the government, it reduces our deficit, and when we have
Speaker 3: a smaller deficit, the government has to borrow less money.
Speaker 3: We're already seeing that. And when we borrow less money,
Speaker 3: we don't have to tax people as much to pay
Speaker 3: for it, and we don't have to print as much
Speaker 3: money to pay our bills.
Speaker 4: So you get into it, you're going to have to
Speaker 4: that's amazing.
Speaker 2: You're going to have to talk slower because there's a
Speaker 2: lot of my frontemies that listen to this program and
Speaker 2: they're liberals, so they may not understand that real quick.
Speaker 1: So not just.
Speaker 2: You know, they don't understand as you said, they don't
Speaker 2: understand economic and so the things that you just said,
Speaker 2: you would think it would be common sense, but apparently not.
Speaker 3: Well, the news is, I think liberals are still sleepy,
Speaker 3: most of them at the tower. I don't know for sure,
Speaker 3: that could be a guest. No, No, I think you're right,
Speaker 3: you know, and and it's it's hard to you know,
Speaker 3: I you know, I think sometimes I think when you
Speaker 3: hear you know, people on the other side when they
Speaker 3: talk about uh economics, it's about emotional economics, It's like, okay,
Speaker 3: well you know that, you know, they're you know, Elion
Speaker 3: Musk is a billionaire.
Speaker 4: You know, everything's wrong with the economy.
Speaker 3: He or you know, it's like, okay, this guy, you know,
Speaker 3: invented a rocket to go to Mars. You know, he
Speaker 3: invented electric car industry, which wouldn't exist if if if
Speaker 3: it wasn't for his genius, you know. And but then
Speaker 3: of course they want to tell everybody to buy electric cars,
Speaker 3: enforcing to buy cars. U listen, I mean the whole
Speaker 3: thing when you look at the emotional side of economics.
Speaker 3: I think we have to try to remove the politics
Speaker 3: from thatomics, which is really hard to do because I
Speaker 3: think a lot of these politicians on the other side,
Speaker 3: you know, keep trying to tell us, hey, the economy's bad,
Speaker 3: the economy's bad, you know when and it's all Trump's fault,
Speaker 3: you know, when you know the previous administration, you know,
Speaker 3: was there for four years and ran up, you know,
Speaker 3: some of the biggest debt and inflation numbers in history.
Speaker 3: So you know, yeah, they blamed COVID, but you know,
Speaker 3: we know what really caused it, and that's out of
Speaker 3: control spending.
Speaker 1: Yeah.
Speaker 2: I mean, we had the Inflation Reduction Act that added
Speaker 2: billions of actually trillions of dollars to the deficit. We
Speaker 2: had the government subsidies that that latest round of well,
Speaker 2: we had the what was it the what was it
Speaker 2: the Green New Steel Bill that went through that it
Speaker 2: was was it the Inflation Reduction Act or something else
Speaker 2: that was supposed to be all this but it was
Speaker 2: all this green technology that they wanted to fund and
Speaker 2: a slush fund for them, which was out of control spending.
Speaker 2: But when you look at what has gone on, I mean,
Speaker 2: when Trump left office, inflation was at one point four percent,
Speaker 2: the thirty year fixed rate was somewhere around two point
Speaker 2: eight seven thereabouts, and people were making money, people wages
Speaker 2: were higher, was out pacing inflation. And then the first
Speaker 2: year of the Biden administration, boom. We're up to two
Speaker 2: point five, two point six, up to nine point one
Speaker 2: percent in June of twenty twenty two. Gasoline prices up
Speaker 2: to five dollars a gallon, and all of a sudden,
Speaker 2: the guys that broke the system, they're going to tell
Speaker 2: us how to fix it.
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's pretty amazing, right, It pretty is, you know.
Speaker 3: I mean, and when you think about, you know, some
Speaker 3: of the things that President Trump said when it came
Speaker 3: into office, one of them was energy. Right, We're going
Speaker 3: to make gasoline prices cheap. And people say you can't
Speaker 3: do that, you know, but President Trump did it. And
Speaker 3: I think it's a combination of smart economic policy, smart
Speaker 3: drill baby drill policy.
Speaker 4: But also politics.
Speaker 3: Right by neutralizing Iran, you know, by showing strength against Venezuela,
Speaker 3: by you know, really getting control of the geopolitical picture.
Speaker 3: You know, even the peace talks between Russia and Ukraine
Speaker 3: wherever they go anywhere or not. All of this has
Speaker 3: reduced the risk premium to oil. And I can't tell
Speaker 3: you what leadership means when you talk to a barrel oil.
Speaker 3: When the market's confident that we have a leader in
Speaker 3: place that is not going to allow you know, major
Speaker 3: oil price disruption. You know, a president that is not
Speaker 3: going to sit back and allow Hooti rebels to start
Speaker 3: taking over oil tankers. You know, that's a huge change
Speaker 3: to the market and that shows up in the price.
Speaker 3: And I think that's one of the unheralded successes when
Speaker 3: it comes to these low oil prices.
Speaker 2: Yeah, that war premium that you were talking about, a
Speaker 2: risk premium that has been one of the major considerations.
Speaker 2: I mean, every time there was some sort of disruption,
Speaker 2: the Huti rebels trying to choke off the straits and
Speaker 2: form those seeking ships in the Red Sea and so on,
Speaker 2: oil tankers and such and trying to choke trade. That
Speaker 2: is a risk premium. And when you don't have that
Speaker 2: risk premium, the free flow of trade. And we're not
Speaker 2: talking about just well, we're talking about free trade, but
Speaker 2: we're also talking about fair trade as opposed to these
Speaker 2: talking about these tariffs. It kind of gives everything a
Speaker 2: more level playing field. And I think what people.
Speaker 3: Are go ahead, Yeah, no, I'm gonna Figu're absolutely right now.
Speaker 3: I think you know, when we get back to the
Speaker 3: level of pay. Listen, I'm a free market guy.
Speaker 4: You know that, Kevin.
Speaker 3: I would love a world with no tariffs, right, you know,
Speaker 3: and I would love a war with peace and love
Speaker 3: and rock and roll and all that stuff, you know.
Speaker 3: But you know, we've got to face reality. I mean,
Speaker 3: in the real world, you know, every other country had
Speaker 3: tariffs on us, and we were trying to be the
Speaker 3: nice guy, right, and by being the nice guy, we
Speaker 3: gave up so many jobs, so many factories, you know,
Speaker 3: we lost so many industries overseas. Right, And so now
Speaker 3: we're going back to a policy that stands up to
Speaker 3: that in the real world. Right, when you stand up
Speaker 3: to you know, countries like China that steal our intellectual
Speaker 3: property or steal our businesses or steal you know that
Speaker 3: kind of thing, and people say, oh my gosh, well
Speaker 3: you know what's going to happen.
Speaker 4: You know, all the goods we're getting from China. People
Speaker 4: are going to you know, we're going to you know,
Speaker 4: they're going to cost so much more.
Speaker 3: And it's like there's so many goods from China that
Speaker 3: we buy that the only reason we buy them is
Speaker 3: because they're so darn cheap. And the reason why they're
Speaker 3: so cheap, you know, they're using cheap labor, they're using
Speaker 3: you know, cheap you know, materials, and if they try
Speaker 3: to raise the prices on those things, nobody's going to
Speaker 3: buy it. People are going to buy you know, name
Speaker 3: brand goods as opposed to Chinese knockoffs.
Speaker 1: Yeah, exactly.
Speaker 2: I mean when you look at the average what is it,
Speaker 2: the average salary in the United States factory workers, et cetera.
Speaker 2: Is somewhere around thirty seven dollars per hour when you
Speaker 2: add in the benefits and so on. And then you
Speaker 2: go over to China, they have no benefits whatsoever, and
Speaker 2: average hourly wages five to seven dollars. There's no vacation time,
Speaker 2: there's none of the employee benefits. Of course, the wages
Speaker 2: are going to be cheaper, and yet there's this big
Speaker 2: gap between what they manufacture and then what they sell,
Speaker 2: and of course that can be eaten into.
Speaker 1: By these as.
Speaker 2: I think you pointed out in your energy report that
Speaker 2: the tariffs are absorbed by the manufacturer, the import or
Speaker 2: the exporter, the importer, the wholesaler, and in some cases
Speaker 2: the retailer. So there's all these levels where those tariffs
Speaker 2: can be absorbed that it doesn't hit us at the
Speaker 2: level at the consumer level. And we've seen that as
Speaker 2: far as inflation is concerned.
Speaker 3: No, you're absolutely right. And listen, you're going to hear
Speaker 3: from some buyers of Chinese goods saying, hey, we're going
Speaker 3: to have to raise prices because of tariffs, right, I mean, yeah,
Speaker 3: that's going to happen to a certain degree. But what
Speaker 3: you're also going to see on the flip side of that,
Speaker 3: other goods are going to go down in price, right
Speaker 3: because they have to move goods, and you know, and
Speaker 3: and then you're going to see alternatives become more competitive.
Speaker 4: Right.
Speaker 3: So you know, for example, I think everybody was outraged
Speaker 3: because we were going to put a tariff on you know,
Speaker 3: European pastas. Oh my gosh, we can't get we can't
Speaker 3: get our pastas from you know, and it's like wait
Speaker 3: a second, you know, it's how do you make pasta
Speaker 3: like flour and water, you know, don't we have companies
Speaker 3: in America because they can figure out how to do that.
Speaker 3: You know, we really need it from Italy.
Speaker 4: I mean, yeah, it.
Speaker 3: Looks kind of nice and the boxes are pretty, but
Speaker 3: I think we make as good as pasta in America.
Speaker 4: I say, buy America a positive.
Speaker 2: Yeah, and we didn't see a click break. Can you
Speaker 2: hang with us through the break and we'll pick up
Speaker 2: on the other side, all right? I guess is also
Speaker 2: I should have mentioned that several times during this segment,
Speaker 2: but I apologize for Phil Flint, Price Futures Group and
Speaker 2: author of the Energy Report. I'm Kevin Gordon, America struck
Speaker 2: In Network seven hundred w L, continuing our conversation with
Speaker 2: Phil Flynn. He is senior market analyst Price Futures Group,
Speaker 2: author of the Energy Report, and contributed to Fox Business Net. Phil,
Speaker 2: thanks for hanging with us through the break. When we
Speaker 2: were talking earlier about inflation and where we're seeing that,
Speaker 2: I thought it was interesting and again, being a recovering accountant,
Speaker 2: I just have to dig into the numbers and when
Speaker 2: I see some of these reports come out, and it
Speaker 2: was a few months ago or a couple months ago
Speaker 2: when inflation ticked up. But when you got behind the numbers,
Speaker 2: one of the largest increases was in the service sector
Speaker 2: and was the fees being charged by brokers. And it's
Speaker 2: a good thing, but a bad thing because the market
Speaker 2: was so good, many people were coming into the market,
Speaker 2: but then the fees on that were increasing because there
Speaker 2: were so many more fees collected, not higher amounts, but
Speaker 2: more people. And that was a factor for the inflation.
Speaker 2: But nobody is really talking about. You know, when you
Speaker 2: had ups contracts, the railroad contracts, the UAW contracts, who
Speaker 2: else am I missing here?
Speaker 1: Up?
Speaker 2: Anyway, all these the east coast, West coast ports, they
Speaker 2: got big boosts in terms of their wages. That's got
Speaker 2: to affect our economy and that's got to be causing
Speaker 2: a little bit of inflation.
Speaker 3: It is, there's no doubt about that. And you know,
Speaker 3: when the economy grows, demand goes and that's it. And
Speaker 3: we had what the incredible four point three growth number
Speaker 3: in the US, which was blue away expectations right exactly,
Speaker 3: and that you know, should put the naysayers to bed.
Speaker 1: But no, it won't, No, it won't.
Speaker 3: But yeah, I mean the economy is doing great in
Speaker 3: so many cylinderies now.
Speaker 4: Listen.
Speaker 3: I know there's a lot of people listening today and say, well,
Speaker 3: wait a second, Phil, don't you eat do you go
Speaker 3: to the grocery store? I mean, those prices are still high,
Speaker 3: and people are right, I mean, but there are some
Speaker 3: prices in the grocery stores that are going to come down,
Speaker 3: but there are some that are hot going to remain high,
Speaker 3: not because of just inflation, just because of cycles.
Speaker 1: Right.
Speaker 3: For example, we had the smallest cattle crop we've had,
Speaker 3: you know.
Speaker 4: In a hundred years, right.
Speaker 3: Because of drought and other issues. You know, so those
Speaker 3: prices it's going to take longer to rebuild that herd,
Speaker 3: you know. But if you look on the flip side
Speaker 3: of that, grain prices are historically low, so you're going
Speaker 3: to have you know, lower food costs there. You're seeing.
Speaker 3: You remember, everybody was worried about aiding prices. Aid prices
Speaker 3: are coming down, you know. So it's going to be
Speaker 3: bumpy on the food side here for a little bit.
Speaker 3: But we see the trend is going to be down.
Speaker 4: There's going to be.
Speaker 3: Certain certain commodities that aren't going.
Speaker 4: To get cheap soon.
Speaker 3: It's going to take a long time, but you're going
Speaker 3: to start finding more value at the grocery store over
Speaker 3: the next year, you know, except for a.
Speaker 2: Are starting to see it a little bit. I mean
Speaker 2: where I live, of course, we experience or we luck out.
Speaker 2: And the fact that we've got like five different grocery
Speaker 2: store chains that are in the area, so they compete
Speaker 2: hot and heavy with each other. And I noticed that
Speaker 2: there are certain prices. If you look at their flyers
Speaker 2: and their ads, there are certain prices. Every three weeks,
Speaker 2: this price is down. Like coffee. Coffee I drink is
Speaker 2: usually fourteen ninety nine a can, but when it's on sale,
Speaker 2: it's nine to ninety nine, so you buy it. When
Speaker 2: it's nine to ninety nine, you buy two cans if
Speaker 2: you're gonna you know. So I you know the grocery prices.
Speaker 2: I think there's ways around them. I mean I noticed
Speaker 2: my wife was telling me the other day she was
Speaker 2: in the store and they had milk on sale for
Speaker 2: a dollar thirty nine for a half a half a gallon,
Speaker 2: and the gallons were over three dollars and people were
Speaker 2: coming in grabbing the gallons. They were coming in and
Speaker 2: grabbing this instead of paying attention to prices. It's is
Speaker 2: grab and go mentality, I think where people are getting
Speaker 2: hurt on their grocery prices.
Speaker 3: But yeah, I listen, I think that's true. I think
Speaker 3: that's true. I mean listen.
Speaker 2: I mean I only got about a minute.
Speaker 1: I gotta get going here.
Speaker 3: But well, I want my potato chip bags as big
Speaker 3: as it used to be. Well, yeah, I think the
Speaker 3: trends are getting better. There'll be a few things, you know,
Speaker 3: like coffee. You know, they had a terrible drought, worst crop, coco,
Speaker 3: same thing. But they're coming back, so we'll see what happens.
Speaker 1: Phil.
Speaker 2: Thank you so much for spending time with us again.
Speaker 2: Aren't my guest, Phil Flynn, Senior market analysts, Price Futures Group.
Speaker 2: If you don't get his energy report, you got to.
Speaker 2: I mean a lot of information in there, and a
Speaker 2: lot of good economic data.
Speaker 4: Thank you, Kevin. The Happy New Year to you. I'm
Speaker 4: everybody listening.
Speaker 2: Phil again, Thank you so much for spending time with us.
Speaker 2: I certainly appreciate it. I'm Kevin Gordon, America's struck In
Speaker 2: Network seven hundred w LW is to Phil Flynn for
Speaker 2: joining us. Always enjoy talking to him. I'd love to
Speaker 2: have him on the program and talk about things because once,
Speaker 2: as I mentioned before, he and I aren sync years ago.
Speaker 1: A couple of years ago.
Speaker 2: Actually I started reading some different articles and he was quoted,
Speaker 2: and so I figured, I got to get a hold
Speaker 2: of this guy and you know, get together and talk
Speaker 2: to him and have him on the program and talk
Speaker 2: about some of the things going on in the economy
Speaker 2: and thereabouts. So again my appreciation of Phil for being
Speaker 2: with us yesterday. We got ahead of the normal Thursday
Speaker 2: jobless claims that came out.
Speaker 1: Early because of the New Year holiday.
Speaker 2: And it was interesting looking at the different headlines. And again,
Speaker 2: as I mentioned several times before, when I see these
Speaker 2: different headlines, it's interesting that how the headline sometimes doesn't
Speaker 2: match the story, or the headline tries to downplay what
Speaker 2: is actually going on.
Speaker 1: Just give you an example.
Speaker 2: According to Action four x US, initial jobless claims fall
Speaker 2: to one ninety nine versus expected two fifteen. Not a
Speaker 2: bad headline. Reuters US weekly job as claims fall to
Speaker 2: one month low. That's kind of so so good headline.
Speaker 2: I saw jobless claims declined for third straight weeks, a
Speaker 2: sign of steady labor market. That is actually from MarketWatch
Speaker 2: dot com seeking alpha. Initial jobless claims surprise with another
Speaker 2: drop this week and another very good headline from Investing
Speaker 2: dot Com. Initial jobs claims dip, beating forecast and previous figures.
Speaker 2: Let's dig into some of the numbers here and interesting
Speaker 2: how this is being covered, how they decide to cover this,
Speaker 2: and some of the comments that they make throughout.
Speaker 1: So let's just dig into the numbers here.
Speaker 2: How about that initial jobs claim is the number of
Speaker 2: people who apply for state unemployment fell by sixteen thousand
Speaker 2: to a seasonally adjusted one hundred and ninety nine thousand
Speaker 2: in the weekend in December, The twenty seventh Favorite Department
Speaker 2: said on Wednesday. The report came out early due to
Speaker 2: the New Year holiday. It is the third straight week
Speaker 2: decline in new claims and the seventh week in the
Speaker 2: past eighth. While claims were often volatile during the holiday period,
Speaker 2: economists say the record low level of claims is a
Speaker 2: sign of a relatively steady labor market conditions. So what
Speaker 2: have we been hearing. We've been hearing from Lion Jerry
Speaker 2: Powell and the Federal Reserve that the job market is weak.
Speaker 2: We have been hearing claims in terms of what the unemployment.
Speaker 1: Rate is that we'll be talking about here shortly.
Speaker 2: All we hear about is the job market not being
Speaker 2: as strong, but indications of what we're getting from initial
Speaker 2: jobless claims, continuing jobless claims. It all points to something
Speaker 2: that is not what people are being told by the
Speaker 2: spoon fed regurgitators in the mainstream media.
Speaker 1: What's ahead for let me see, let's see here we go.
Speaker 2: Economists pulled by the Wall Street Journal had estimated new
Speaker 2: claims would rise to two hundred and twenty thousand from
Speaker 2: the initial estimate last week of two hundred and fourteen.
Speaker 1: They were off by ten percent.
Speaker 2: And when I say economists, let's not forget one of
Speaker 2: the phrases that was done by lords J.
Speaker 1: Peter.
Speaker 2: He's a Peter principal where people rise to their level
Speaker 2: of incompetence, a comment that was made years ago. And
Speaker 2: economists is an expert who will know tomorrow why the
Speaker 2: things he predicted yesterday didn't happen today. And so many
Speaker 2: times we see these estimates and these expectations from economists
Speaker 2: that never really pan out.
Speaker 1: Some of the key details.
Speaker 2: A number of people already collecting unemployment benefits known as
Speaker 2: continuing claims fell by forty seven thousand to one point
Speaker 2: eighty seven million in the week ending December twentieth. Continuing
Speaker 2: claims have risen in recent years, and I want to
Speaker 2: repeat years, because this is one of the first times I've.
Speaker 1: Heard them put this in an article.
Speaker 2: Because they keep talking about continuing jobless claims increasing over
Speaker 2: this past year to indicate that the soft unemployment, of
Speaker 2: the soft employment number and a weak jobs market to
Speaker 2: claim to bolster their narrative.
Speaker 1: So where were these reports.
Speaker 2: In recent years about unemployment going or unemployment claims continuing
Speaker 2: to go up? Apparently they didn't want us to know
Speaker 2: that during the last few years or recent years, as
Speaker 2: they say here in the article The.
Speaker 1: Big Picture, although relieves that.
Speaker 2: Claims are low, many economists again the word economists, worry
Speaker 2: about the slow pace of hiring, especial especially since the summer.
Speaker 2: The unemployment rate rose to four point six percent in November,
Speaker 2: the highest rate since this September twenty twenty one. Now
Speaker 2: I doubt that number, seriously, I am not buying that.
Speaker 2: Nothing I see supports that when you have initial jobless
Speaker 2: claims all being within that range of two hundred and
Speaker 2: ten thousand, and again, this is below two hundred and
Speaker 2: ten thousand this week, down to one hundred ninety nine thousand.
Speaker 2: But things have been going in that range of between
Speaker 2: two hundred and ten thousand and two hundred and fifty
Speaker 2: thousand on a weekly basis for the last several years,
Speaker 2: so that number hasn't been going up. Now that people
Speaker 2: continuing to collect unemployment, it has risen, but there's also
Speaker 2: more people coming into the job market on a regular basis.
Speaker 2: So I'm not sure. I can't wait to see when
Speaker 2: these numbers are revised, because again they're going to be
Speaker 2: I think the date that that's supposed to come out is, Yeah,
Speaker 2: the December number on the unemployment rate will be out
Speaker 2: on January of the ninth. Now, on this other article
Speaker 2: that I saw a number of Americans filing applications, jobless
Speaker 2: benefits fell unexpectedly last week. Now, again this goes back
Speaker 2: to things I've been saying. How many times have we
Speaker 2: seen the word unexpectedly in twenty twenty five? In this case,
Speaker 2: jobless benefits fell unexpectedly, retail sales, home sales up unexpectedly.
Speaker 2: Every time we turn around, you pick up a story
Speaker 2: having to do with the economy, and things are unexpectedly
Speaker 2: in the good direction and unexpectedly low in the bad direction.
Speaker 2: So again I wonder where these people are coming from.
Speaker 2: Misial job as claims again stated that they come in
Speaker 2: at one hundred and ninety nine thousand. They had forecasted
Speaker 2: two hundred and twenty. Again they were off by ten percent.
Speaker 2: Let's see. Though the economy remains resilient, with gross domestic
Speaker 2: product increasing at its fastest pace in two years in
Speaker 2: the third quarter, the labor market has almost stalled. Labor
Speaker 2: demand and supply have been impacted by import terriffs and
Speaker 2: immigration crackdown. According to Economous Again, economists, while off their
Speaker 2: recent peak, continuing claims are higher than they were at
Speaker 2: this time last year, and that elevated level aligned with
Speaker 2: the survey from the Conference Board last week showing consumer
Speaker 2: perceptions of the labor market deteriorated this month to levels
Speaker 2: last scene in twenty twenty one. Rick sand Telly I
Speaker 2: mentioned him a few times, Rick Santelly back during the
Speaker 2: housing crisis, when the housing market bottom fell out back
Speaker 2: in two thousand and eight.
Speaker 1: Two thousand and nine, he was on.
Speaker 2: The floor of the New York Stock Exchange and when
Speaker 2: it came out that this subprime loans had gotten out
Speaker 2: of control, and how they things happened, that this was
Speaker 2: something that should never have happened in terms of the
Speaker 2: housing price or housing bubble busting.
Speaker 1: And he was there and he was very frustrated.
Speaker 2: He said, you know what we need in this country
Speaker 2: is another tea party. And that's what formulated people saying,
Speaker 2: you know what, He's right, let's go ahead and start
Speaker 2: these tea party organizations to where you know, all these
Speaker 2: politicians that kept telling us that, hey, don't worry about this,
Speaker 2: we got it handled. All these people, both sides of
Speaker 2: the don't worry about things, you know, just elect us.
Speaker 2: We'll fix things or we'll keep things going on and
Speaker 2: everything's will be okay. Then out of the blue, we
Speaker 2: get these these numbers the tank the housing market where
Speaker 2: houses lost about forty some percent, and so people started
Speaker 2: going to meetings and going to city commissioners and starting
Speaker 2: being active in politics, asking questions and saying.
Speaker 1: You know, you told us you had our backs.
Speaker 3: Well.
Speaker 2: Rick Antelly the other day was talking about what's going
Speaker 2: on as far as the economy is concerned, and he said,
Speaker 2: I'm going to paraphrase here, he said, you can take
Speaker 2: all these opinion polls and all these things on surveys
Speaker 2: as far as consumer confidence and whatnot. And you can
Speaker 2: take a big shovel and shove them in the trash can,
Speaker 2: because the well has been poisoned by as he called it,
Speaker 2: main street media, as I call them, the spoon fed
Speaker 2: regurgitators in the mainstream media. They keep talking down the economy,
Speaker 2: as I've been talking about for months. They have been
Speaker 2: trying to manufacture a recession, and of course because of that,
Speaker 2: that has soured the opinions of people. And as Rick
Speaker 2: Santelli said, take those opinion polls, take a big shovel
Speaker 2: to them, and throw them in the garbage. Well, folks,
Speaker 2: we're up against clock here. Stay tuned for Red Eye
Speaker 2: Radio at the top the hour. I'm Kevin Gordon, America's
Speaker 2: truck and Network seven hundred WLW