1 00:00:10,920 --> 00:00:13,720 Speaker 1: This is America's Truck and Network with Kevin Gordon. 2 00:00:16,520 --> 00:00:20,080 Speaker 2: Welcome aboard, Thanks for tuning in on this Friday morning 3 00:00:20,640 --> 00:00:24,759 Speaker 2: America's Truck and Network, the show that is rated R 4 00:00:25,280 --> 00:00:29,760 Speaker 2: for remarkable. We got a bunch of really good economic 5 00:00:29,840 --> 00:00:32,519 Speaker 2: news on Thursday morning, and let's get to it. But 6 00:00:32,600 --> 00:00:35,880 Speaker 2: what's interesting is when we dig into it, how far 7 00:00:36,080 --> 00:00:39,680 Speaker 2: into the numbers and into the reports. One of the 8 00:00:39,720 --> 00:00:43,800 Speaker 2: reporting networks run reporting agencies has to dig far into 9 00:00:43,840 --> 00:00:47,199 Speaker 2: the numbers to come up with negative information. And this 10 00:00:47,320 --> 00:00:51,320 Speaker 2: is unbelievable anyway, and that has to do with housing starts. 11 00:00:51,400 --> 00:00:52,680 Speaker 1: We'll get to that in a little bit. 12 00:00:53,200 --> 00:00:57,880 Speaker 2: Labor department reports decline, and unemployment claims, and pretty much 13 00:00:57,960 --> 00:01:00,440 Speaker 2: all of the various headlines when you when you do 14 00:01:00,480 --> 00:01:03,640 Speaker 2: the search and you got these cluster of stories that 15 00:01:03,880 --> 00:01:07,840 Speaker 2: are related to that, the headlines for those individual stories 16 00:01:08,400 --> 00:01:10,759 Speaker 2: floor daily net dot net. I don't know where they 17 00:01:10,800 --> 00:01:13,000 Speaker 2: come up with some of these and why they put 18 00:01:13,040 --> 00:01:15,480 Speaker 2: them in there, but it's a good headline. Initial jobless 19 00:01:15,480 --> 00:01:18,520 Speaker 2: claims declined by one thousand in the week ending March 20 00:01:18,640 --> 00:01:24,000 Speaker 2: the seventh. Investing dot Com pretty much a pretty decent website. 21 00:01:24,280 --> 00:01:29,480 Speaker 2: US Initial jobless Claims slightly lower than expected, breaking the news, 22 00:01:29,600 --> 00:01:33,720 Speaker 2: which is again one that is in there fairly regularly. 23 00:01:34,680 --> 00:01:37,400 Speaker 2: Initial job is claims down one thousand to two hundred 24 00:01:37,400 --> 00:01:42,200 Speaker 2: and thirteen thousand, South seeking alpha. Initial jobless claims barely 25 00:01:42,280 --> 00:01:46,000 Speaker 2: budge in the past week. Got to get that little 26 00:01:46,000 --> 00:01:48,760 Speaker 2: dig in there, and then Reuter's US weekly jobs claims 27 00:01:48,880 --> 00:01:51,840 Speaker 2: edge down. Now getting into the numbers here or getting 28 00:01:51,880 --> 00:01:55,520 Speaker 2: into the actual story, The number of Americans filing for 29 00:01:55,760 --> 00:01:59,720 Speaker 2: applications for jobless benefits fell last week, which could help 30 00:01:59,760 --> 00:02:04,280 Speaker 2: to suage fears that the labor market deterioration after the 31 00:02:04,480 --> 00:02:08,880 Speaker 2: unexpected decline in employment in February. That number we reported 32 00:02:08,960 --> 00:02:12,640 Speaker 2: last week claims let me see, initial claims for stated 33 00:02:12,680 --> 00:02:18,000 Speaker 2: unemployment benefits slipped one thousand to seasonally adjusted two hundred 34 00:02:18,040 --> 00:02:20,800 Speaker 2: and thirteen thousand for the week and a March the 35 00:02:20,840 --> 00:02:25,119 Speaker 2: seventh Labor Department said economists polled by Reuters had forecasted 36 00:02:25,160 --> 00:02:28,240 Speaker 2: two hundred and fifteen thousand, so they were off by 37 00:02:28,280 --> 00:02:30,520 Speaker 2: two thousand, which is good because we're on the positives 38 00:02:30,600 --> 00:02:33,120 Speaker 2: or you know, the better side of that. Better to 39 00:02:33,160 --> 00:02:35,880 Speaker 2: be under that number than above that. Claims have been 40 00:02:35,960 --> 00:02:39,240 Speaker 2: tucked in a one hundred and ninety nine thousand to 41 00:02:39,320 --> 00:02:42,760 Speaker 2: two hundred and thirty two thousand range for the for 42 00:02:42,840 --> 00:02:48,360 Speaker 2: the year. Amid low layoffs, they remain at levels consistent 43 00:02:48,960 --> 00:02:52,840 Speaker 2: with a stable labor market. Now, what did we hear 44 00:02:52,960 --> 00:02:56,760 Speaker 2: last week when we saw and the headline was that 45 00:02:57,240 --> 00:03:03,440 Speaker 2: the number of jobs created last month fell, Actually we 46 00:03:03,520 --> 00:03:07,000 Speaker 2: lost jobs ninety two thousand. But when you got into 47 00:03:07,040 --> 00:03:10,160 Speaker 2: paragraph two three, I was about paragraph three or four, 48 00:03:10,600 --> 00:03:14,600 Speaker 2: they mentioned that thirty thousand of that number had to 49 00:03:14,600 --> 00:03:19,600 Speaker 2: do with a group of Kaiser Permanente employees that had 50 00:03:19,600 --> 00:03:22,680 Speaker 2: gone on strike. Thirty thousand people went on strike, so 51 00:03:22,800 --> 00:03:26,000 Speaker 2: that was included that ninety two thousand number, plus the 52 00:03:26,040 --> 00:03:29,120 Speaker 2: fact we had in January all of that horrific winter 53 00:03:29,240 --> 00:03:33,400 Speaker 2: wind weather rather a lot of snow, a lot of ice, 54 00:03:33,680 --> 00:03:36,240 Speaker 2: a lot of things shut down during that period of time, 55 00:03:36,480 --> 00:03:39,120 Speaker 2: and so that was reflected in the number there. Rather 56 00:03:39,200 --> 00:03:43,000 Speaker 2: than getting that out front, they started with the headline 57 00:03:43,040 --> 00:03:46,480 Speaker 2: of ninety losing ninety two thousand jobs in the previous month. 58 00:03:46,760 --> 00:03:49,800 Speaker 2: But you know, God forbid that you explained that right away. 59 00:03:49,920 --> 00:03:51,760 Speaker 2: Now you have to dig into the story. But anyway, 60 00:03:52,320 --> 00:03:54,800 Speaker 2: it's interesting that this week now, all of a sudden, 61 00:03:55,040 --> 00:04:00,920 Speaker 2: these in these unemployment numbers remain at levels castant with 62 00:04:01,120 --> 00:04:07,000 Speaker 2: a stable labor market. And they talked about last week 63 00:04:07,040 --> 00:04:10,279 Speaker 2: the ninety two thousand jobs that were lost in February, 64 00:04:10,480 --> 00:04:13,360 Speaker 2: where the numbers that were decreased. Decrease was blamed on 65 00:04:13,400 --> 00:04:17,279 Speaker 2: harsh winter weather, a strike by healthcare workers and etc. 66 00:04:17,880 --> 00:04:20,599 Speaker 2: And then they talk about here that they headcount because 67 00:04:20,600 --> 00:04:26,320 Speaker 2: of uncertainty from hessidancy by employers to hire more people 68 00:04:26,400 --> 00:04:31,120 Speaker 2: because of import tariffs, integration of artificial intelligence and some 69 00:04:31,440 --> 00:04:33,560 Speaker 2: work roles and so on. So they always have to 70 00:04:33,600 --> 00:04:36,080 Speaker 2: kind of couch this and kind of give some. 71 00:04:35,920 --> 00:04:37,880 Speaker 1: Sort of other explanation for this. 72 00:04:38,160 --> 00:04:41,960 Speaker 2: We have been hearing about artificial intelligence going to affect 73 00:04:42,000 --> 00:04:45,800 Speaker 2: the actual layoffs for probably about six months now and 74 00:04:45,839 --> 00:04:52,360 Speaker 2: that hasn't materialized. And interestingly enough, Saw there was an 75 00:04:52,400 --> 00:04:54,440 Speaker 2: interview and I can't remember the guy's name. I may 76 00:04:54,480 --> 00:04:56,440 Speaker 2: have it in some of my notes down here, we'll 77 00:04:56,480 --> 00:04:58,360 Speaker 2: look at it, but the head of black Rock, I 78 00:04:58,400 --> 00:05:01,080 Speaker 2: think a guy's name Zinc or something like that. He 79 00:05:01,240 --> 00:05:04,200 Speaker 2: was talking about artificial intelligence. He was talking to Brett 80 00:05:04,200 --> 00:05:07,720 Speaker 2: Bear on Fox News and black Rock is this one 81 00:05:07,720 --> 00:05:14,160 Speaker 2: of the largest portfolio handled portfolio of investments in the country, 82 00:05:14,640 --> 00:05:19,360 Speaker 2: and they move and handle the portfolios for a lot 83 00:05:19,400 --> 00:05:22,480 Speaker 2: of very very wealthy people. And he was being interviewed 84 00:05:22,480 --> 00:05:24,880 Speaker 2: and he's talked about and Brett has asked him about 85 00:05:25,240 --> 00:05:29,560 Speaker 2: artificial intelligence. He goes, well, you know, as in most technologies, 86 00:05:29,600 --> 00:05:34,520 Speaker 2: when things shift, you see certain numbers going down, but 87 00:05:34,560 --> 00:05:37,040 Speaker 2: then you see other jobs being created. 88 00:05:37,400 --> 00:05:39,719 Speaker 1: Jobs that we never even right. 89 00:05:39,560 --> 00:05:43,040 Speaker 2: Now, that we can't even imagine, are going to pop up, 90 00:05:43,480 --> 00:05:46,200 Speaker 2: you know, and and you know, you go back to 91 00:05:45,920 --> 00:05:49,640 Speaker 2: the time when you had the computers coming on board. 92 00:05:49,960 --> 00:05:53,320 Speaker 2: Remember the initial stages of computers, basically all they were 93 00:05:53,440 --> 00:05:58,599 Speaker 2: were a glorified word processing equipment because there was no 94 00:05:58,680 --> 00:06:01,680 Speaker 2: interaction between computer and so on. But that was a 95 00:06:01,760 --> 00:06:04,840 Speaker 2: very convenient way better than typewriters in terms of if 96 00:06:04,880 --> 00:06:07,200 Speaker 2: you're typing something, you could go back and correct it 97 00:06:07,240 --> 00:06:10,000 Speaker 2: with the happening to do the correction, tape, retype the 98 00:06:10,040 --> 00:06:12,640 Speaker 2: whole thing over so that you don't have any mistakes, 99 00:06:12,680 --> 00:06:14,800 Speaker 2: and all that sort of stuff, which cut down on 100 00:06:14,800 --> 00:06:17,480 Speaker 2: the clerical people that were possibly know we're doing these 101 00:06:17,520 --> 00:06:21,400 Speaker 2: sort of things. And then when the computers went nationwide 102 00:06:21,440 --> 00:06:25,200 Speaker 2: and you could actually do communications through the internet, that 103 00:06:25,240 --> 00:06:28,640 Speaker 2: then changed the job market considerably also. But those jobs 104 00:06:28,640 --> 00:06:31,320 Speaker 2: shifted to other areas, all of a sudden, jobs that 105 00:06:31,320 --> 00:06:34,839 Speaker 2: we had never even thought of before. Different retail outlets 106 00:06:34,880 --> 00:06:41,760 Speaker 2: were selling computers, Different companies were repairing computers, different software companies, 107 00:06:41,800 --> 00:06:45,479 Speaker 2: different people preparing software to work on these computers, to 108 00:06:45,560 --> 00:06:48,880 Speaker 2: make things different, make things more convenient, and so on. 109 00:06:49,120 --> 00:06:52,000 Speaker 2: So a shift from what would normally be clerical type 110 00:06:52,000 --> 00:06:57,360 Speaker 2: of thing shifted into more of a programming network, programming information, etc. 111 00:06:57,920 --> 00:07:01,960 Speaker 2: And so, as he was talking about out with this AI, 112 00:07:02,120 --> 00:07:05,000 Speaker 2: we are going to see jobs we never even imagine 113 00:07:05,080 --> 00:07:08,679 Speaker 2: could exist in the future. So again this talking about 114 00:07:08,720 --> 00:07:11,280 Speaker 2: AI and trying to be afraid of AI and this 115 00:07:11,400 --> 00:07:14,600 Speaker 2: sort of thing, and quite honestly, up to this point, 116 00:07:15,080 --> 00:07:17,680 Speaker 2: you've got to be very careful about what you're looking 117 00:07:17,680 --> 00:07:21,560 Speaker 2: at up on AI, because there are certain things that 118 00:07:21,640 --> 00:07:24,680 Speaker 2: when you look at it again, it is no better 119 00:07:24,720 --> 00:07:27,600 Speaker 2: than what the information goes in the old saying garbage in, 120 00:07:27,720 --> 00:07:30,520 Speaker 2: garbage out. So if these are being programmed by real 121 00:07:30,680 --> 00:07:33,640 Speaker 2: human beings, then some of the stuff that may be 122 00:07:33,840 --> 00:07:37,200 Speaker 2: in there is incorrect. I get a kick out of 123 00:07:37,240 --> 00:07:41,240 Speaker 2: this on a regular basis. My wife uses AI to 124 00:07:41,360 --> 00:07:44,160 Speaker 2: search things a lot, and she will ask it questions, 125 00:07:44,200 --> 00:07:46,400 Speaker 2: and she will ask it how to phrase certain things. 126 00:07:47,080 --> 00:07:50,360 Speaker 2: And what is funny is that they will give her 127 00:07:50,760 --> 00:07:54,600 Speaker 2: answers where they're trying to lecture her on something, and 128 00:07:54,760 --> 00:07:57,480 Speaker 2: she'll type back in there and say, you know, I 129 00:07:57,600 --> 00:08:01,320 Speaker 2: ask you for an answer. I didn't ask for a lecture, 130 00:08:01,720 --> 00:08:05,360 Speaker 2: and if you and here is where you are wrong 131 00:08:05,440 --> 00:08:08,520 Speaker 2: on this, and they will come back with we're sorry, 132 00:08:08,720 --> 00:08:11,560 Speaker 2: we didn't have the information, we didn't understand the question. 133 00:08:12,640 --> 00:08:17,400 Speaker 2: It's just hilarious. But again, it is not the all, 134 00:08:17,480 --> 00:08:20,160 Speaker 2: the all and end all. There are still a lot 135 00:08:20,200 --> 00:08:24,280 Speaker 2: of things with artificial intelligence that needs to be ironed out, 136 00:08:24,400 --> 00:08:28,240 Speaker 2: and so total reliance on that is probably not the 137 00:08:28,280 --> 00:08:31,560 Speaker 2: best way to go US. So then they talk about 138 00:08:31,760 --> 00:08:34,880 Speaker 2: how the US Supreme Court struck down Donald Trump's sweeping tariffs, 139 00:08:34,960 --> 00:08:37,760 Speaker 2: which pursued under a law. 140 00:08:37,640 --> 00:08:39,640 Speaker 1: And so on and so forth. We know all about that. 141 00:08:39,920 --> 00:08:42,880 Speaker 2: Trump administration said on Wednesday it was launching two trade 142 00:08:42,920 --> 00:08:49,840 Speaker 2: investigations into excess industrial capacity in sixteen major trading partners 143 00:08:50,120 --> 00:08:56,440 Speaker 2: and into forced labor in those countries as well, Because again, 144 00:08:56,640 --> 00:09:00,400 Speaker 2: if you're talking about trade being fair, not not only 145 00:09:00,440 --> 00:09:05,000 Speaker 2: free trade, but fair trade, the trading practices, the manufacturing 146 00:09:05,080 --> 00:09:10,160 Speaker 2: practices of these companies and in these countries is extremely important. 147 00:09:10,440 --> 00:09:14,040 Speaker 2: And if they have excess capacity and they're holding back 148 00:09:14,400 --> 00:09:16,679 Speaker 2: in terms of the goods that they're able to produce, 149 00:09:16,880 --> 00:09:21,160 Speaker 2: they're artificially keeping prices higher. And as far as trade 150 00:09:21,240 --> 00:09:25,280 Speaker 2: negotiations are concerned, they're looking at that. Of course, they 151 00:09:25,320 --> 00:09:28,360 Speaker 2: talk about the US Israeli war with Iran, which is 152 00:09:28,559 --> 00:09:31,960 Speaker 2: boosted oil price and gas prices poses a downward risk 153 00:09:31,960 --> 00:09:35,080 Speaker 2: of the labor market. Economist said, soaring gasoline prices and 154 00:09:35,120 --> 00:09:39,400 Speaker 2: stock market volatility could weigh on consumer spending and undercut 155 00:09:39,440 --> 00:09:42,199 Speaker 2: demand for workers, so do interest rates. 156 00:09:42,240 --> 00:09:43,760 Speaker 1: I might add, we'll pick. 157 00:09:43,600 --> 00:09:45,360 Speaker 2: This up and talk a little bit more about this 158 00:09:45,559 --> 00:09:48,280 Speaker 2: and get into some of the other things in terms 159 00:09:48,360 --> 00:09:51,920 Speaker 2: of jobless claims. I'm Kevin Gordon, America's Trucking Network, seven 160 00:09:52,000 --> 00:09:58,640 Speaker 2: hundred WLW. Kevin Gordon, America'structing Network, seven hundred WLW. 161 00:09:58,760 --> 00:10:02,200 Speaker 1: You're talking about this job leekly Hello. 162 00:10:02,679 --> 00:10:06,360 Speaker 2: US weekly jobless claims reports came out Thursday morning. You know, 163 00:10:06,480 --> 00:10:10,559 Speaker 2: pretty decent, no major changes, no major fluctuations, et cetera. 164 00:10:11,000 --> 00:10:13,360 Speaker 2: Came in at two hundred and thirteen thousand for the week. 165 00:10:13,679 --> 00:10:16,880 Speaker 2: They had expected two hundred and fifteen thousand, so it's 166 00:10:16,920 --> 00:10:19,000 Speaker 2: better to be on the underside of that rather than 167 00:10:19,040 --> 00:10:22,080 Speaker 2: be the on the overside talking about what is causing 168 00:10:22,120 --> 00:10:25,559 Speaker 2: that issue. They also said in terms of a backdrop 169 00:10:25,640 --> 00:10:28,400 Speaker 2: as far as where these levels are consistent with a 170 00:10:28,440 --> 00:10:32,560 Speaker 2: stable labor market and talking about that, well, this is 171 00:10:32,600 --> 00:10:35,400 Speaker 2: good news because last week when we had those jobs 172 00:10:35,480 --> 00:10:38,880 Speaker 2: numbers in terms of jobs created, we had actually they 173 00:10:38,920 --> 00:10:43,000 Speaker 2: had decreased by ninety two thousand jobs. And again they 174 00:10:43,240 --> 00:10:47,920 Speaker 2: explain in here again you know, as I mentioned the 175 00:10:48,280 --> 00:10:50,640 Speaker 2: report last week, it took them like three or four 176 00:10:50,679 --> 00:10:53,800 Speaker 2: paragraphs to get as to why those numbers were down, 177 00:10:54,040 --> 00:10:56,360 Speaker 2: which changes the complexity completely. 178 00:10:56,480 --> 00:10:57,320 Speaker 1: If you're talking. 179 00:10:57,160 --> 00:11:01,600 Speaker 2: About winter weather holding things back and a strike at 180 00:11:01,600 --> 00:11:05,640 Speaker 2: a major pharmaceutical company of thirty thousand, that's going to 181 00:11:05,640 --> 00:11:08,200 Speaker 2: account for a heck of a lot of numbers within 182 00:11:08,240 --> 00:11:11,320 Speaker 2: that ninety two thousand. So well, we covered that, and 183 00:11:11,320 --> 00:11:15,880 Speaker 2: you're talking about that companies are hesitant to hire employees, 184 00:11:16,160 --> 00:11:18,480 Speaker 2: and then they're talking about the we left off with 185 00:11:18,559 --> 00:11:21,520 Speaker 2: the US Israeli war with Iran and how that could 186 00:11:21,559 --> 00:11:24,440 Speaker 2: affect the job market, et cetera. Sluggish hiring has left 187 00:11:24,480 --> 00:11:28,560 Speaker 2: many unemployed people, including recent college graduates, to experience long 188 00:11:28,600 --> 00:11:33,319 Speaker 2: spells of joblessness. The number of people receiving unemployment benefits 189 00:11:33,480 --> 00:11:37,280 Speaker 2: after an initial week of vade A proxy for hiring 190 00:11:37,600 --> 00:11:41,080 Speaker 2: drop twenty one thousand. So let me repeat this, Okay, 191 00:11:42,600 --> 00:11:46,520 Speaker 2: within the same sentence they got, actually the same paragraph. 192 00:11:46,559 --> 00:11:49,240 Speaker 1: It's two sentences. They contradict themselves. 193 00:11:49,480 --> 00:11:55,080 Speaker 2: Sluggish hiring has left many unemployed people, including recent college graduates, 194 00:11:55,120 --> 00:11:59,200 Speaker 2: to experience long spells of joblessness. The number of people 195 00:11:59,280 --> 00:12:02,240 Speaker 2: receiving on a deployment benefits after the initial week of 196 00:12:02,280 --> 00:12:06,679 Speaker 2: a A proxy for hiring dropped twenty one thousand. So 197 00:12:07,000 --> 00:12:10,560 Speaker 2: apparently some of those people are not having a long 198 00:12:10,600 --> 00:12:13,720 Speaker 2: period of time they're actually finding employment. They don't go 199 00:12:13,880 --> 00:12:16,680 Speaker 2: in here and they don't talk about the length of 200 00:12:16,800 --> 00:12:20,360 Speaker 2: time people are on unemployment. If I recall last week 201 00:12:20,400 --> 00:12:24,000 Speaker 2: they were talking about that the time it took for 202 00:12:25,480 --> 00:12:28,280 Speaker 2: some of the people being on unemployment before they actually 203 00:12:28,320 --> 00:12:31,679 Speaker 2: found a job was I think they said like twenty 204 00:12:31,720 --> 00:12:35,079 Speaker 2: five point four weeks, which is getting up to that 205 00:12:35,120 --> 00:12:39,640 Speaker 2: twenty six week number. And you got to wonder if 206 00:12:39,960 --> 00:12:43,680 Speaker 2: we are seeing some people that are on unemployment that 207 00:12:43,840 --> 00:12:47,560 Speaker 2: are waiting till their benefits run out before they accept 208 00:12:47,559 --> 00:12:47,920 Speaker 2: the job. 209 00:12:48,040 --> 00:12:54,800 Speaker 1: Someplace, unemployment is not a they don't pay you what 210 00:12:54,880 --> 00:12:56,319 Speaker 1: you were making on the job. 211 00:12:56,960 --> 00:13:00,520 Speaker 2: But I remember early on I had a person that 212 00:13:00,559 --> 00:13:05,160 Speaker 2: I worked with at a company, and he talked about 213 00:13:06,280 --> 00:13:08,839 Speaker 2: live very frugally. I mean, he didn't really accumulate a 214 00:13:08,840 --> 00:13:11,520 Speaker 2: whole lot of wealth, but he would talk about how 215 00:13:11,600 --> 00:13:15,640 Speaker 2: he would get a job, be on there long enough 216 00:13:15,679 --> 00:13:18,439 Speaker 2: so he could collect unemployment, and then he'd go on 217 00:13:18,559 --> 00:13:22,640 Speaker 2: employment for twenty six weeks and right before his benefits 218 00:13:22,679 --> 00:13:24,719 Speaker 2: would run out, he would actually go out and get 219 00:13:24,720 --> 00:13:25,040 Speaker 2: a job. 220 00:13:25,080 --> 00:13:28,359 Speaker 1: Now, he didn't have a family, like I said, didn't. 221 00:13:28,160 --> 00:13:31,640 Speaker 2: Leave very frugal or he didn't leave a really extravagant life, 222 00:13:32,040 --> 00:13:35,320 Speaker 2: but it was comfortable enough for him. And I don't 223 00:13:35,320 --> 00:13:37,280 Speaker 2: know why people would live that way. I would think 224 00:13:37,320 --> 00:13:41,079 Speaker 2: they would want to improve their lives get better. But again, 225 00:13:41,120 --> 00:13:44,600 Speaker 2: this guy was well, he was one of those guys 226 00:13:44,640 --> 00:13:47,560 Speaker 2: that I liked. When I think back on people that 227 00:13:47,600 --> 00:13:50,280 Speaker 2: I've met. He was somebody that was a very heavy 228 00:13:50,320 --> 00:13:52,959 Speaker 2: pot smoker, so it wasn't very motivated to begin with. 229 00:13:53,040 --> 00:13:55,560 Speaker 1: But that can't be the accepting of the rule. 230 00:13:55,600 --> 00:13:57,439 Speaker 2: There are some people out there that wait till their 231 00:13:57,440 --> 00:14:00,240 Speaker 2: benefits expire before they go out and find it job. 232 00:14:00,280 --> 00:14:02,000 Speaker 1: But anyway, it's kind of a side note. 233 00:14:01,840 --> 00:14:04,200 Speaker 2: There, but as they were saying that a lot of 234 00:14:04,240 --> 00:14:07,120 Speaker 2: these people were taking up to twenty five weeks or 235 00:14:07,160 --> 00:14:09,720 Speaker 2: twenty five weeks or so in order to find a job, 236 00:14:09,920 --> 00:14:12,760 Speaker 2: some of that may be in there. Last year's job 237 00:14:12,840 --> 00:14:17,000 Speaker 2: less College graduates are not included in the claims because 238 00:14:17,040 --> 00:14:21,640 Speaker 2: they have limited or no work experiences, disqualifying them from 239 00:14:21,640 --> 00:14:25,240 Speaker 2: claiming unemployment. The unemployment rate increased to four point four 240 00:14:25,280 --> 00:14:28,840 Speaker 2: percent in February from four point three percent in January. 241 00:14:28,880 --> 00:14:32,360 Speaker 2: I don't believe that number. If you have steady going 242 00:14:32,400 --> 00:14:34,040 Speaker 2: up to the top of this story, you have a 243 00:14:34,080 --> 00:14:39,520 Speaker 2: stable labor market, you have a low higher low fire situation, 244 00:14:39,880 --> 00:14:43,440 Speaker 2: you don't have any mass layoffs. The unemployment numbers have 245 00:14:43,480 --> 00:14:46,240 Speaker 2: been ranging between one hundred and ninety nine thousand, two 246 00:14:46,360 --> 00:14:50,359 Speaker 2: hundred and thirty two thousand. So how is the unemployment 247 00:14:50,440 --> 00:14:54,280 Speaker 2: rate going up when you have basically hardly anybody being 248 00:14:54,360 --> 00:14:58,760 Speaker 2: laid off, hardly anybody being fired, and then these numbers 249 00:14:58,800 --> 00:15:01,640 Speaker 2: all within this particular If you would see those numbers 250 00:15:01,680 --> 00:15:05,280 Speaker 2: jumping up, then you could say that, all right, the unemployment. 251 00:15:04,800 --> 00:15:05,560 Speaker 1: Rate is up. 252 00:15:05,640 --> 00:15:08,320 Speaker 2: But again we'll see where that number comes in when 253 00:15:08,360 --> 00:15:13,400 Speaker 2: it is released again. So the next thing to look 254 00:15:13,440 --> 00:15:17,800 Speaker 2: at the economic news that came out yesterday was building 255 00:15:17,840 --> 00:15:23,280 Speaker 2: permits a single family how actually single family I'm sorry, 256 00:15:23,600 --> 00:15:28,560 Speaker 2: housing starts and building permits. And it was interesting when 257 00:15:28,600 --> 00:15:30,800 Speaker 2: I pulled this up again. You have the cluster of 258 00:15:30,840 --> 00:15:35,600 Speaker 2: stories that indicate what different outlets, what different media outlets 259 00:15:35,800 --> 00:15:38,800 Speaker 2: are reporting these numbers right off the top of the 260 00:15:38,840 --> 00:15:42,600 Speaker 2: bat here, okay, because when I looked at the number, 261 00:15:42,840 --> 00:15:48,240 Speaker 2: and I looked at the information, it said jobless toobless claims, 262 00:15:48,440 --> 00:15:53,440 Speaker 2: but housing starts unexpectedly surge, And so I'm looking at 263 00:15:53,480 --> 00:15:57,240 Speaker 2: the cluster, and right off the bat there's the headline 264 00:15:57,240 --> 00:16:01,880 Speaker 2: that says, US single family housing stars fall two point 265 00:16:01,920 --> 00:16:05,200 Speaker 2: eight percent. And this is what I was talking about earlier, 266 00:16:05,880 --> 00:16:11,600 Speaker 2: the total number. When the Bureau, When the Census Bureau 267 00:16:12,720 --> 00:16:18,600 Speaker 2: actually releases these numbers, they talk in terms of housing starts. 268 00:16:19,440 --> 00:16:21,840 Speaker 2: They don't break that down until you get into the 269 00:16:21,920 --> 00:16:26,320 Speaker 2: numbers in terms of multifamily homes and single family homes. 270 00:16:26,760 --> 00:16:32,200 Speaker 2: Now the housing starts again to clarify our new residential construction, 271 00:16:32,560 --> 00:16:36,400 Speaker 2: So once construction begins, that indicates that there is a 272 00:16:36,480 --> 00:16:42,520 Speaker 2: housing start. Now, according to the overall number US housing 273 00:16:42,560 --> 00:16:48,040 Speaker 2: starts unexpectedly surged to an eleven month high in January. 274 00:16:48,120 --> 00:16:51,640 Speaker 2: If you look at just single family houses, those starts 275 00:16:51,880 --> 00:16:56,520 Speaker 2: fell by two point eight percent. So the particular companies 276 00:16:56,600 --> 00:17:00,040 Speaker 2: like Reuters that look this up and again Reuters, some 277 00:17:00,080 --> 00:17:03,680 Speaker 2: times they're bubbler, you know most a lot of the times, 278 00:17:03,760 --> 00:17:06,520 Speaker 2: a lot of the information they present is halfway decent, 279 00:17:06,840 --> 00:17:09,560 Speaker 2: but they you know, going in or I know going 280 00:17:09,600 --> 00:17:11,720 Speaker 2: in that you're going to get a report that's a 281 00:17:11,760 --> 00:17:16,480 Speaker 2: bubbler two or three left of center. But buried within 282 00:17:16,560 --> 00:17:20,000 Speaker 2: these stories you usually find some nuggets, and you do 283 00:17:20,080 --> 00:17:26,080 Speaker 2: find some journalistic They actually practice journalism within these stories, 284 00:17:26,280 --> 00:17:28,240 Speaker 2: so you have to dig into that to get the 285 00:17:28,280 --> 00:17:29,320 Speaker 2: information out of that. 286 00:17:29,680 --> 00:17:31,320 Speaker 1: But on this they chose to. 287 00:17:31,280 --> 00:17:35,920 Speaker 2: Pick the story below instead of the overall housing starts. 288 00:17:36,040 --> 00:17:39,120 Speaker 2: They just look at single family homes and present that. 289 00:17:39,400 --> 00:17:42,280 Speaker 2: I guess if they dug deep enough into that, they 290 00:17:42,280 --> 00:17:47,000 Speaker 2: could probably say the number of playhouses constructed by families 291 00:17:47,240 --> 00:17:49,639 Speaker 2: fell in January, because you know, January is not a 292 00:17:49,720 --> 00:17:53,160 Speaker 2: very warm month, and so families probably didn't go out 293 00:17:53,160 --> 00:17:56,000 Speaker 2: and build the playhouses for their kids. So I'm sure 294 00:17:56,040 --> 00:18:00,760 Speaker 2: there's building starts on those were way down. Again, It's like, 295 00:18:01,400 --> 00:18:04,600 Speaker 2: let's find the worst possible thing within some of these 296 00:18:04,640 --> 00:18:07,600 Speaker 2: things and report that as opposed to what the actual 297 00:18:07,640 --> 00:18:10,800 Speaker 2: story is. Again, according to this one outlet, US housing 298 00:18:10,840 --> 00:18:15,159 Speaker 2: starts unexpectedly surged through eleven month high. Another decline in 299 00:18:15,320 --> 00:18:20,320 Speaker 2: permits overshadows januaries jump in housing starts. That again, we'll 300 00:18:20,320 --> 00:18:22,560 Speaker 2: get to the building permits here in a moment. And then, 301 00:18:22,600 --> 00:18:26,280 Speaker 2: of course Reuter's US single family housing starts fall in January, well, 302 00:18:26,480 --> 00:18:29,480 Speaker 2: single family did, but not the overall numbers. 303 00:18:30,200 --> 00:18:30,520 Speaker 1: Number. 304 00:18:30,840 --> 00:18:34,600 Speaker 2: New residential construction in the US unexpectedly surge to its 305 00:18:34,720 --> 00:18:37,960 Speaker 2: highest level in almost a year in the month of January, 306 00:18:38,040 --> 00:18:41,320 Speaker 2: the Commerce Department revealed in a report released on Thursday. 307 00:18:41,680 --> 00:18:46,800 Speaker 2: Commerce Department said housing starts spiked by seven point two 308 00:18:46,800 --> 00:18:50,920 Speaker 2: percent to an annual rate of one point four eight 309 00:18:51,080 --> 00:18:55,320 Speaker 2: seven million in January. And again, when you look at 310 00:18:55,359 --> 00:18:58,159 Speaker 2: the graph, I mean this is far and above the 311 00:18:58,200 --> 00:19:01,760 Speaker 2: previous month in December was one point three eight seven 312 00:19:01,880 --> 00:19:06,200 Speaker 2: So this is a full one hundred thousand more starts 313 00:19:06,240 --> 00:19:09,199 Speaker 2: in the month of February than are in January than 314 00:19:09,240 --> 00:19:12,640 Speaker 2: it was in December. Now, looking at the Reuters story, 315 00:19:13,000 --> 00:19:16,000 Speaker 2: they start talking about single family home building. Home building 316 00:19:16,080 --> 00:19:19,720 Speaker 2: fell in January amid harsh winter weather and strong rebound 317 00:19:19,760 --> 00:19:23,760 Speaker 2: is unlikely with permits for the future construction declining. Again, 318 00:19:24,080 --> 00:19:27,160 Speaker 2: they got to give the worst scenario in terms of 319 00:19:27,440 --> 00:19:30,720 Speaker 2: the reporting as opposed to the overall number. We'll talk 320 00:19:30,720 --> 00:19:34,240 Speaker 2: about this coming up. I'm Kevin Gordon, America's trucking Network. 321 00:19:34,320 --> 00:19:43,359 Speaker 2: Seven hundred WLW, seven hundred WLW. I'm Kevin Gordon is 322 00:19:43,600 --> 00:19:46,840 Speaker 2: America's truck a network. Going to this Reuter story talking 323 00:19:46,880 --> 00:19:48,880 Speaker 2: about single family housing starts. So they got to start 324 00:19:48,880 --> 00:19:52,199 Speaker 2: off right from the bat saying that they fell. But 325 00:19:53,080 --> 00:19:56,840 Speaker 2: when you get into the overall housing starts, those buildings 326 00:19:56,880 --> 00:20:00,840 Speaker 2: that are now starting under construction, new construction actually began 327 00:20:01,040 --> 00:20:06,000 Speaker 2: in a particular month. Overall, that was good. Now they 328 00:20:06,040 --> 00:20:08,760 Speaker 2: talk in terms here. They say single family housing starts, 329 00:20:08,800 --> 00:20:11,880 Speaker 2: which account for a bulk of home building, dropped two 330 00:20:11,960 --> 00:20:16,919 Speaker 2: point eight percent. Now, if that is the bulk of housing, 331 00:20:17,520 --> 00:20:23,480 Speaker 2: then how can the less than bulk bring that number 332 00:20:23,600 --> 00:20:26,080 Speaker 2: up to a seven point two percent increase? 333 00:20:26,960 --> 00:20:31,640 Speaker 1: Amazing? The report was delayed by last year's Schumer shutdown. Course. 334 00:20:31,680 --> 00:20:33,040 Speaker 1: They say the government shutdown. 335 00:20:33,800 --> 00:20:38,360 Speaker 2: Groundbreaking on new single family housing projects tumbled thirty three 336 00:20:38,440 --> 00:20:41,720 Speaker 2: percent in the Northeast and fell by four point six 337 00:20:41,760 --> 00:20:44,000 Speaker 2: percent in the densely populated South. 338 00:20:44,080 --> 00:20:46,399 Speaker 1: Now, remember the weather. 339 00:20:46,680 --> 00:20:49,680 Speaker 2: Was very severe in the Northeast, so you would expect 340 00:20:49,680 --> 00:20:53,439 Speaker 2: that to fall. House starts rose in the Midwest and 341 00:20:53,520 --> 00:20:57,440 Speaker 2: west regions. Heavy snow and frigid temperatures slam large parts 342 00:20:57,480 --> 00:21:02,080 Speaker 2: of the countries. In January, single family starts drop six 343 00:21:02,119 --> 00:21:07,120 Speaker 2: point five percent year over year and has been hampered 344 00:21:07,119 --> 00:21:10,760 Speaker 2: by tariffs on imported goods such as lumber and vanity cabinets, 345 00:21:11,040 --> 00:21:17,240 Speaker 2: worker shortage among amid the immigration crackdown and higher mortgage rates. Well, 346 00:21:17,280 --> 00:21:20,800 Speaker 2: of course it does. The mortgage rates have declined this year, 347 00:21:20,840 --> 00:21:24,480 Speaker 2: is stimulating home purchasing. The US Israeli World war with 348 00:21:24,560 --> 00:21:27,680 Speaker 2: a rant is pushing up oil prices and boosting. 349 00:21:27,400 --> 00:21:28,520 Speaker 1: US treasury yields. 350 00:21:28,760 --> 00:21:33,320 Speaker 2: Mortgage rates tracked the benchmark ten year treasury rate, and 351 00:21:33,400 --> 00:21:37,480 Speaker 2: so that is what affects the mortgage rates. They throw 352 00:21:37,520 --> 00:21:40,920 Speaker 2: this sentence in here, which is amazing. Home builder sentiment 353 00:21:41,040 --> 00:21:45,520 Speaker 2: has remained depressed, suggesting that new family home construction is 354 00:21:45,640 --> 00:21:49,520 Speaker 2: unlikely to significantly improve in the near term. 355 00:21:50,040 --> 00:21:52,399 Speaker 1: Friends, that is a lie. 356 00:21:53,080 --> 00:21:55,920 Speaker 2: When we go back to the report from the National 357 00:21:55,960 --> 00:22:01,159 Speaker 2: Federation of Independence, National Federation of Independent Businesses, which we 358 00:22:01,280 --> 00:22:06,280 Speaker 2: reported on this past Tuesday. It talked in here in 359 00:22:06,359 --> 00:22:09,520 Speaker 2: terms of what is going on, Optimism on Main Street 360 00:22:09,880 --> 00:22:14,240 Speaker 2: drops slightly in February, and that number actually fell by 361 00:22:14,600 --> 00:22:18,480 Speaker 2: half a percentage point. In terms of their optimism, the 362 00:22:18,600 --> 00:22:23,439 Speaker 2: number was ninety eight point eight, remained slightly above the 363 00:22:23,680 --> 00:22:24,640 Speaker 2: fifty two. 364 00:22:24,840 --> 00:22:27,119 Speaker 1: Year average of ninety eight. 365 00:22:27,720 --> 00:22:30,639 Speaker 2: So you go over the fifty two year history of 366 00:22:30,720 --> 00:22:34,440 Speaker 2: this report that we talked about on Tuesday is at 367 00:22:34,520 --> 00:22:37,760 Speaker 2: ninety eight, and we are eight tenths of a percentage 368 00:22:37,760 --> 00:22:40,920 Speaker 2: point above that. Yeah, it's a half a percentage point 369 00:22:41,000 --> 00:22:44,160 Speaker 2: down from the previous month, but that is still optimistic. 370 00:22:44,440 --> 00:22:48,679 Speaker 2: It is certainly not home builder sentiments has remained depressed 371 00:22:49,160 --> 00:22:54,000 Speaker 2: in this report directly from the National Federation of Independent Businesses, 372 00:22:54,160 --> 00:22:57,960 Speaker 2: the survey of small businesses, their number is up, and 373 00:22:58,160 --> 00:23:03,359 Speaker 2: the homebuilders themselves, their number is up. Their optimism in 374 00:23:03,440 --> 00:23:06,679 Speaker 2: terms of what's going on is up as well. So again, 375 00:23:07,440 --> 00:23:12,840 Speaker 2: catch them with their well, catch them with their intellectual malpractice, 376 00:23:13,040 --> 00:23:17,160 Speaker 2: journalistic malpractice as well. Starts for housing projects with five 377 00:23:17,280 --> 00:23:22,439 Speaker 2: units or more, a very volatile segment, surged twenty nine 378 00:23:22,560 --> 00:23:25,639 Speaker 2: point one percent to a rate of five hundred and 379 00:23:25,680 --> 00:23:29,840 Speaker 2: twenty four thousand units. In January, overall housing starts increase 380 00:23:30,200 --> 00:23:33,399 Speaker 2: seven point two percent to a rate of one point 381 00:23:33,520 --> 00:23:38,479 Speaker 2: four eight seven. So seven paragraphs in Reuter decides to 382 00:23:38,560 --> 00:23:42,720 Speaker 2: get to the total, all total, overall starts. And again, 383 00:23:43,040 --> 00:23:46,800 Speaker 2: when you have the housing starts, that is an indicator 384 00:23:46,880 --> 00:23:49,959 Speaker 2: as far as businesses are concerned, and you in the 385 00:23:50,000 --> 00:23:53,879 Speaker 2: trucking industry, because you know that if these starts are up, 386 00:23:54,160 --> 00:23:57,840 Speaker 2: you're going to have to be driving and delivering all 387 00:23:57,880 --> 00:24:02,600 Speaker 2: the components. Everything that goes in the house from the 388 00:24:02,640 --> 00:24:06,080 Speaker 2: basement on up to the roof, and everything that goes 389 00:24:06,240 --> 00:24:10,720 Speaker 2: in the house in terms of appliance is carpeting, painting, everything. Imagine, 390 00:24:10,800 --> 00:24:12,880 Speaker 2: all of the stuff that goes into the house all 391 00:24:12,920 --> 00:24:16,160 Speaker 2: has to be transported by a truck. It also means 392 00:24:16,200 --> 00:24:20,360 Speaker 2: that wherever that stuff is produced to get to the wholesalers, 393 00:24:20,560 --> 00:24:23,520 Speaker 2: that has to be delivered by a truck to those 394 00:24:23,600 --> 00:24:27,480 Speaker 2: locations and then from those locations to the individual job sites. 395 00:24:27,720 --> 00:24:29,720 Speaker 2: So as long as we know that that part of 396 00:24:29,760 --> 00:24:32,119 Speaker 2: the economy is going well, we know that that's going 397 00:24:32,160 --> 00:24:35,120 Speaker 2: to be good for the trucking industry. And that's good 398 00:24:35,119 --> 00:24:39,040 Speaker 2: for the trucking industry, and especially with unemployment levels being low. 399 00:24:39,320 --> 00:24:43,080 Speaker 2: We're not experiencing any high levels of unemployment. That more 400 00:24:43,080 --> 00:24:45,639 Speaker 2: people are on the job, more people are working, that 401 00:24:45,720 --> 00:24:48,560 Speaker 2: means more people are earning money. And when we saw 402 00:24:48,600 --> 00:24:54,040 Speaker 2: the numbers last week that the wage increase was three 403 00:24:54,080 --> 00:24:57,359 Speaker 2: point or four point three percent on the month, which 404 00:24:57,480 --> 00:25:00,840 Speaker 2: was a point and a half a percentage point above 405 00:25:00,880 --> 00:25:04,600 Speaker 2: the inflation rate. More people on the job, more means 406 00:25:04,640 --> 00:25:07,159 Speaker 2: more people are earning a pay. More people are going 407 00:25:07,200 --> 00:25:09,760 Speaker 2: to be going out and buying stuff. More stuff is 408 00:25:09,760 --> 00:25:11,879 Speaker 2: going to have to be delivered to these stores to 409 00:25:12,040 --> 00:25:14,399 Speaker 2: satisfy that. More people are going to be able to 410 00:25:14,440 --> 00:25:18,840 Speaker 2: go out and spend money on theater, basketball, you know, 411 00:25:18,960 --> 00:25:22,840 Speaker 2: going to watch basketball games, or you know, stadiums, a 412 00:25:22,880 --> 00:25:25,600 Speaker 2: baseball season coming up, more people going to the ballpark, 413 00:25:25,960 --> 00:25:28,560 Speaker 2: all these kinds of things, and more people going out 414 00:25:28,560 --> 00:25:31,399 Speaker 2: to dinner. So all of that stuff, everything supporting that 415 00:25:31,560 --> 00:25:33,720 Speaker 2: is going to have to be delivered to these locations. 416 00:25:33,840 --> 00:25:36,000 Speaker 2: And as long as those numbers are up, more people 417 00:25:36,040 --> 00:25:38,399 Speaker 2: are working, more people are employed, the more they're going 418 00:25:38,440 --> 00:25:41,000 Speaker 2: to be spending money, and more the economy is going 419 00:25:41,040 --> 00:25:44,639 Speaker 2: to be going on. So again it takes them seven 420 00:25:44,720 --> 00:25:48,840 Speaker 2: paragraphs in a ten. Let me see seven, eight, nine 421 00:25:49,040 --> 00:25:52,199 Speaker 2: ten in a ten paragraph story. They wait till the 422 00:25:52,480 --> 00:25:55,720 Speaker 2: seven tenths through the story to get to the good information. 423 00:25:56,040 --> 00:25:59,119 Speaker 2: Permits for the future construction of single family housing units 424 00:25:59,119 --> 00:26:02,879 Speaker 2: fell nine tenths of one percent to a rate of 425 00:26:02,920 --> 00:26:06,639 Speaker 2: eight hundred and seventy three thousand. Now getting back to 426 00:26:06,680 --> 00:26:09,360 Speaker 2: the top of the story here their first sentence, US 427 00:26:09,400 --> 00:26:13,120 Speaker 2: single family homebuilding fell in January amid harsh winter weather, 428 00:26:13,520 --> 00:26:17,280 Speaker 2: and a strong rebound is unlikely. With permits for future 429 00:26:17,320 --> 00:26:22,879 Speaker 2: construction declining, declining by nine tenths of one percentage point, 430 00:26:23,160 --> 00:26:26,600 Speaker 2: that is a blip on the radar screen. In accounting terms, 431 00:26:26,840 --> 00:26:30,600 Speaker 2: when going back to as a recovering accountant, when we 432 00:26:30,640 --> 00:26:33,919 Speaker 2: would review financial statements and companies, if we've found a 433 00:26:34,000 --> 00:26:37,679 Speaker 2: five percent and the threshold was basically five percent, you 434 00:26:37,720 --> 00:26:41,240 Speaker 2: see something in a five percent discrepancy that is considered 435 00:26:41,520 --> 00:26:45,040 Speaker 2: significant and you would report on that. A nine tenths 436 00:26:45,200 --> 00:26:48,800 Speaker 2: of one percent is not a significant number. That is 437 00:26:48,880 --> 00:26:52,560 Speaker 2: basically a math error more than anything else. And so 438 00:26:52,720 --> 00:26:54,919 Speaker 2: for them to throw that at the front end of 439 00:26:54,920 --> 00:26:59,840 Speaker 2: this story is just unbelievable. Then as far as this, 440 00:27:00,080 --> 00:27:03,040 Speaker 2: and they're talking about the last paragraph, they talk about 441 00:27:03,240 --> 00:27:07,720 Speaker 2: residential investment, which includes homebuilding has contracted for straight four 442 00:27:07,800 --> 00:27:11,719 Speaker 2: straight quarters. Could that possibly be because of interest rates? 443 00:27:12,440 --> 00:27:15,120 Speaker 2: Let's refer back to the story that we had yesterday. 444 00:27:15,440 --> 00:27:19,440 Speaker 2: Median home income home buyers can afford three hundred thousand 445 00:27:19,600 --> 00:27:22,200 Speaker 2: more or thirty thousand more home than. 446 00:27:22,280 --> 00:27:23,040 Speaker 1: Just a year ago. 447 00:27:24,840 --> 00:27:28,400 Speaker 2: Reiterate a paragraph from that story from yesterday. A one 448 00:27:28,440 --> 00:27:31,720 Speaker 2: percent point drop in rates could expand the pool of 449 00:27:31,760 --> 00:27:35,120 Speaker 2: households that can afford to buy a home by about 450 00:27:35,160 --> 00:27:40,320 Speaker 2: five point five million households, including roughly one point six 451 00:27:40,520 --> 00:27:45,360 Speaker 2: million renters, with interest rates at a rate of six percent. 452 00:27:45,920 --> 00:27:48,960 Speaker 2: If those interest rates were down three percent to down 453 00:27:49,000 --> 00:27:54,440 Speaker 2: to three percent, which was the pre pandemic level, there 454 00:27:54,440 --> 00:27:59,760 Speaker 2: would be sixteen point five million people, including four point 455 00:27:59,800 --> 00:28:03,640 Speaker 2: eight eight million renters, looking to buy houses. And what 456 00:28:03,680 --> 00:28:06,320 Speaker 2: would that do to the economy Because when people buy 457 00:28:06,359 --> 00:28:08,720 Speaker 2: a house, they have to furnish it. If it's a 458 00:28:08,720 --> 00:28:10,840 Speaker 2: new home, they're going to have to build it, building 459 00:28:10,880 --> 00:28:13,680 Speaker 2: materials and so on. So the fact that interest rates 460 00:28:13,680 --> 00:28:17,240 Speaker 2: are artificially high, and again I keep talking about where 461 00:28:17,480 --> 00:28:22,480 Speaker 2: interest rates are in countries like Austria, England, France, Italy, 462 00:28:22,760 --> 00:28:27,600 Speaker 2: these different developed countries, their interest rates on their mortgages 463 00:28:27,640 --> 00:28:30,080 Speaker 2: are at least one and a half to two percent 464 00:28:30,359 --> 00:28:32,760 Speaker 2: lower than what we're paying here in the United States. 465 00:28:33,000 --> 00:28:36,040 Speaker 2: And again, as long as that continues, and hopefully the 466 00:28:36,240 --> 00:28:39,440 Speaker 2: rain of Jerry Powell lying Jerry Powell will come to 467 00:28:39,480 --> 00:28:42,080 Speaker 2: an end shortly so that we can get some adjustment 468 00:28:42,200 --> 00:28:45,280 Speaker 2: on these interest rates and get more productive and get 469 00:28:45,320 --> 00:28:49,960 Speaker 2: more productivity and more people into housing. Talk about housing affordability. 470 00:28:50,200 --> 00:28:53,600 Speaker 2: If interest rates are down, that affordability goes way up. 471 00:28:53,760 --> 00:28:56,840 Speaker 2: And we've gone through those numbers before and we can 472 00:28:56,880 --> 00:28:59,600 Speaker 2: go through them anytime. Well, I'll probably go through that 473 00:28:59,640 --> 00:29:03,280 Speaker 2: again next week because it's a good It is a 474 00:29:03,360 --> 00:29:06,520 Speaker 2: good exercise to go through to see just exactly where 475 00:29:06,560 --> 00:29:09,440 Speaker 2: we are some great news or some good news as 476 00:29:09,440 --> 00:29:15,880 Speaker 2: far as the less than truckload industry is concerned. Segment 477 00:29:15,880 --> 00:29:20,400 Speaker 2: of the trucking industry LTL segment health improving as quarter 478 00:29:20,560 --> 00:29:24,360 Speaker 2: one progresses, coming up, we'll talk about that. I'm Kevin Gordon, 479 00:29:24,400 --> 00:29:29,800 Speaker 2: America's truck and Network seven hundred WLW. 480 00:29:30,080 --> 00:29:34,680 Speaker 1: This is America's truck in Network seven one hundred w LW. 481 00:29:35,480 --> 00:29:36,640 Speaker 1: We started the last. 482 00:29:36,600 --> 00:29:40,440 Speaker 2: Segment talking about the lesson truckload segment to health improving 483 00:29:40,680 --> 00:29:42,760 Speaker 2: and by the way, if you miss net segment or 484 00:29:42,840 --> 00:29:44,719 Speaker 2: any of our other segments or any of our shows. 485 00:29:44,840 --> 00:29:46,920 Speaker 2: Make sure you hit up that iHeartRadio app brought to 486 00:29:46,920 --> 00:29:50,240 Speaker 2: you by our friends at Rush Truck Centers. February data 487 00:29:50,280 --> 00:29:54,200 Speaker 2: from publicly traded less than truckload carriers indicated the health 488 00:29:54,280 --> 00:29:57,240 Speaker 2: of the market segment is improving as the first quarter 489 00:29:57,280 --> 00:30:02,520 Speaker 2: of twenty twenty six progresses beyond just higher rates. Sentiment 490 00:30:02,520 --> 00:30:06,760 Speaker 2: among senior executives in the LTL space is positive, is 491 00:30:07,000 --> 00:30:12,560 Speaker 2: positive in outlook, and underlying manufacturing data is supportive even 492 00:30:12,760 --> 00:30:16,320 Speaker 2: as conditions remain challenging. Just like we talked about in 493 00:30:16,360 --> 00:30:20,520 Speaker 2: the housing sector, if more houses are being constructed, obviously 494 00:30:20,600 --> 00:30:23,160 Speaker 2: the stuff that goes into those houses are going to 495 00:30:23,240 --> 00:30:26,080 Speaker 2: have to be delivered to a wholesaler that eventually from 496 00:30:26,120 --> 00:30:28,640 Speaker 2: the wholesaler to the job site, which is going to 497 00:30:28,680 --> 00:30:33,400 Speaker 2: involve trucks. If the manufacturing sentiment manufacturing sector is up, 498 00:30:33,760 --> 00:30:36,720 Speaker 2: those items, the raw materials that go to those manufacturers 499 00:30:36,800 --> 00:30:39,960 Speaker 2: are going to have to get there somewhere, somewhere, somehow, 500 00:30:40,600 --> 00:30:44,160 Speaker 2: buy a truck, and then once those items are manufactured 501 00:30:44,360 --> 00:30:46,960 Speaker 2: and available to go out to the either the wholesalers 502 00:30:47,160 --> 00:30:48,960 Speaker 2: or the retails, that is going to have to be 503 00:30:49,000 --> 00:30:52,200 Speaker 2: delivered by a truck, so very good positive news less 504 00:30:52,200 --> 00:30:56,840 Speaker 2: than truckload area, and these senior executives in these companies 505 00:30:56,960 --> 00:31:00,600 Speaker 2: are very positive on that. After a dis pointing twenty 506 00:31:00,640 --> 00:31:04,560 Speaker 2: twenty five when first quarters optimism evaporated and a flurry 507 00:31:04,640 --> 00:31:09,920 Speaker 2: of tariffs and a truckload of uncertainty, leading players again 508 00:31:10,240 --> 00:31:13,560 Speaker 2: expected a rebound in twenty twenty six, though the timing 509 00:31:13,680 --> 00:31:17,880 Speaker 2: was unclear as the year began. But in retrospect, when 510 00:31:17,880 --> 00:31:20,320 Speaker 2: you look at what was going on, and as we've 511 00:31:20,360 --> 00:31:23,720 Speaker 2: had some of these stories coming out in terms of 512 00:31:24,920 --> 00:31:28,880 Speaker 2: even the other day talked about the tariff's effect on inflation, 513 00:31:29,520 --> 00:31:33,160 Speaker 2: and in one story from CNBC it said there was 514 00:31:33,240 --> 00:31:38,440 Speaker 2: virtually no effect of tariffs on inflation. And let me think, 515 00:31:39,040 --> 00:31:43,840 Speaker 2: was there somebody back on Liberation Day April the second 516 00:31:43,880 --> 00:31:48,520 Speaker 2: of twenty twenty five that said tariffs don't lead to inflation, 517 00:31:48,720 --> 00:31:52,360 Speaker 2: that they could possibly increase prices in some areas but 518 00:31:52,400 --> 00:31:55,840 Speaker 2: then decrease prices in other areas, so that the net 519 00:31:55,880 --> 00:31:59,480 Speaker 2: effect of inflation would be negative. Oh that's right, that 520 00:31:59,680 --> 00:32:03,800 Speaker 2: was me. So again we start seeing these numbers come 521 00:32:03,920 --> 00:32:07,440 Speaker 2: in and all these so called experts that we're talking 522 00:32:07,440 --> 00:32:10,840 Speaker 2: about a possibility of a recession, talking about a possibility 523 00:32:10,880 --> 00:32:16,640 Speaker 2: of a massive layoffs, massive interest rate increase, massive inflation. 524 00:32:16,920 --> 00:32:19,800 Speaker 1: All this stuff didn't come about. And just because the. 525 00:32:19,960 --> 00:32:23,480 Speaker 2: Economists, or some of these economists that apparently didn't read 526 00:32:23,520 --> 00:32:28,280 Speaker 2: the right books came up with a conclusion that was 527 00:32:28,360 --> 00:32:32,200 Speaker 2: absolutely incorrect. And let me remind you what an economist is. 528 00:32:32,600 --> 00:32:36,320 Speaker 2: An economist is an expert who will know tomorrow why 529 00:32:36,400 --> 00:32:40,520 Speaker 2: the things he predicted yesterday didn't happen today. And again 530 00:32:40,560 --> 00:32:45,120 Speaker 2: that comes from a fellow by a Canadian professor by 531 00:32:45,120 --> 00:32:47,800 Speaker 2: the name of Lawrence J. Peter, and he may remember 532 00:32:48,200 --> 00:32:50,800 Speaker 2: what they refer to as the Peter principle. That's the 533 00:32:50,840 --> 00:32:55,280 Speaker 2: principle of which people rise to their level of incompetence. 534 00:32:55,320 --> 00:32:59,240 Speaker 2: In corporations, you see so many times when somebody is 535 00:32:59,240 --> 00:33:01,880 Speaker 2: not very good at it particular position, they actually get 536 00:33:01,920 --> 00:33:03,760 Speaker 2: promoted so they can get them the hell out of 537 00:33:03,760 --> 00:33:06,520 Speaker 2: that position, and then they eventually rise to their level 538 00:33:06,560 --> 00:33:09,680 Speaker 2: of incompetence and whatever. So it's kind of an interesting 539 00:33:09,760 --> 00:33:13,440 Speaker 2: dynamic what happens in companies. But again, looking back at 540 00:33:13,480 --> 00:33:16,440 Speaker 2: these things and what's happening as far as these companies 541 00:33:16,440 --> 00:33:20,520 Speaker 2: are concerned, arc best set its asset based division ABF 542 00:33:20,560 --> 00:33:24,120 Speaker 2: Freight saw one percent increase from January to February, and 543 00:33:24,200 --> 00:33:27,640 Speaker 2: both shipments and tonnage per day. It also noted revenue 544 00:33:27,640 --> 00:33:31,640 Speaker 2: per shipment increase two percent month over month on a 545 00:33:31,720 --> 00:33:35,040 Speaker 2: year over year basis arc best. Tonnage per day rose 546 00:33:35,440 --> 00:33:39,880 Speaker 2: nine point nine percent in January, two percent in February, 547 00:33:40,080 --> 00:33:42,840 Speaker 2: and six percent for the quarter, the company said in 548 00:33:42,880 --> 00:33:47,120 Speaker 2: the March six Securities and Exchange Commission filing. Core Ltl 549 00:33:47,240 --> 00:33:50,280 Speaker 2: profitability also rose in the opening three months of twenty 550 00:33:50,360 --> 00:33:53,959 Speaker 2: twenty six, compared with a particularly weak final quarter of 551 00:33:54,000 --> 00:33:58,080 Speaker 2: the sort of Fort Smith, Arkansas based company said and 552 00:33:58,120 --> 00:34:03,280 Speaker 2: its filing, historically the units opening ratio weekends by about 553 00:34:04,360 --> 00:34:07,560 Speaker 2: two hundred and sixty basis points. Now that sounds scary, 554 00:34:07,760 --> 00:34:10,880 Speaker 2: but a basis point basically is one percent, So that 555 00:34:10,920 --> 00:34:13,840 Speaker 2: would be two point six percent from the fourth quarter 556 00:34:13,920 --> 00:34:17,200 Speaker 2: into the first. So they generally expect a decrease going 557 00:34:17,239 --> 00:34:20,120 Speaker 2: from the fourth quarter into the first quarter, which would 558 00:34:20,200 --> 00:34:23,440 Speaker 2: kind of be expected because when you have holiday sales, 559 00:34:23,440 --> 00:34:26,600 Speaker 2: when you have all that transactions going on during the 560 00:34:26,600 --> 00:34:29,319 Speaker 2: holiday months from Thanksgetting, you know, from the you know, 561 00:34:29,360 --> 00:34:33,120 Speaker 2: basically from Halloween to Thanksgiving and then on to Christmas. 562 00:34:33,239 --> 00:34:35,640 Speaker 2: That is a high retail end and a lot of movement, 563 00:34:35,880 --> 00:34:38,960 Speaker 2: and so you would expect in January that those numbers 564 00:34:39,000 --> 00:34:42,640 Speaker 2: could go down, but they are actually expect in getting 565 00:34:43,000 --> 00:34:48,080 Speaker 2: and experiencing an increase, which is good. The divisions, let 566 00:34:48,120 --> 00:34:51,680 Speaker 2: me see divisions. Quarter one operating revenue is set to 567 00:34:51,840 --> 00:34:54,960 Speaker 2: rise between one hundred and two hundred base point basically 568 00:34:55,000 --> 00:34:59,640 Speaker 2: one to two percent, carriers. Let me see operating revenue 569 00:35:00,120 --> 00:35:02,480 Speaker 2: provides an insight on how well the company is balancing 570 00:35:02,520 --> 00:35:06,040 Speaker 2: it costs and revenue generation. The lower the ratio, the 571 00:35:06,040 --> 00:35:11,719 Speaker 2: better the performance. XPOS LTL tonnage per day increase zero 572 00:35:11,719 --> 00:35:15,479 Speaker 2: point two percent compared with February twenty twenty five, which 573 00:35:15,560 --> 00:35:18,719 Speaker 2: the carrier said March second was attributable to year over 574 00:35:18,800 --> 00:35:22,400 Speaker 2: year increase of three percent in shipments per day and 575 00:35:22,440 --> 00:35:26,200 Speaker 2: a decrease of two point eight in weight per shipment. 576 00:35:27,200 --> 00:35:32,439 Speaker 2: So you know, let me see XPO looking very good now. 577 00:35:32,480 --> 00:35:35,000 Speaker 2: This is a of course, they are from Greenwich, Connecticut. 578 00:35:35,320 --> 00:35:40,080 Speaker 2: Data from SIA meanwhile indicated the tonnage declines are slowing. 579 00:35:41,560 --> 00:35:43,200 Speaker 1: Let me see on the let's. 580 00:35:43,000 --> 00:35:47,120 Speaker 2: See Johns Creek, Georgia based SIA said in a March 581 00:35:47,200 --> 00:35:51,600 Speaker 2: third update that the LTL tonnage per workday declined seven 582 00:35:51,680 --> 00:35:55,320 Speaker 2: percent year over year in January, but that decrease slowed 583 00:35:55,360 --> 00:35:59,240 Speaker 2: to two point seven percent in February. In addition, January 584 00:35:59,239 --> 00:36:02,759 Speaker 2: shipments shipment's felt two point one percent. So they are 585 00:36:02,800 --> 00:36:08,719 Speaker 2: seeing a decrease in the amount of the decline that 586 00:36:08,760 --> 00:36:11,600 Speaker 2: they are seeing is less and less each month, is 587 00:36:11,600 --> 00:36:14,200 Speaker 2: what I'm trying to spit out here. Old Dominion Freight 588 00:36:14,280 --> 00:36:18,000 Speaker 2: Lines of February figures weekend compared with twelve months earlier, 589 00:36:18,200 --> 00:36:22,160 Speaker 2: and a March first update did not provide January details. 590 00:36:22,800 --> 00:36:27,080 Speaker 2: CEO Marty Freeman said in a in comments accompanying the data, 591 00:36:27,360 --> 00:36:31,760 Speaker 2: we are encouraged by trends that we have seen develop 592 00:36:31,880 --> 00:36:36,040 Speaker 2: in our business. While our LTL tons per day decline 593 00:36:36,080 --> 00:36:38,879 Speaker 2: on a year over year basis for the first two 594 00:36:38,920 --> 00:36:42,719 Speaker 2: months of the quarter, we remain cautiously optimistic about the 595 00:36:42,800 --> 00:36:48,359 Speaker 2: direction of the domestic economy. LTL is the key transportation 596 00:36:48,440 --> 00:36:52,840 Speaker 2: mode for smaller manufacturers, and carriers typically target small to 597 00:36:53,040 --> 00:36:58,200 Speaker 2: medium sized businesses because of higher profit returns. So the 598 00:36:58,239 --> 00:37:01,200 Speaker 2: Federal Reserved am released on Frory the eighteenth, show US 599 00:37:01,239 --> 00:37:05,000 Speaker 2: industrial production increase zero point seven percent. Good news for 600 00:37:05,040 --> 00:37:08,160 Speaker 2: the trucking industry. They also talk in terms here of 601 00:37:08,200 --> 00:37:12,960 Speaker 2: different spot rates contract rates, typically of major LTL carriers 602 00:37:13,320 --> 00:37:17,480 Speaker 2: lag spot rates, but data shows significant upside being achieved. 603 00:37:17,600 --> 00:37:21,120 Speaker 2: Spot rates were closed to a fifteen percent higher for 604 00:37:21,160 --> 00:37:24,520 Speaker 2: the week that ended March six from the same period 605 00:37:24,880 --> 00:37:28,279 Speaker 2: back on twenty twenty five. Dry van spot rates were 606 00:37:28,400 --> 00:37:31,880 Speaker 2: nineteen percent higher in the weekend in March six than 607 00:37:31,920 --> 00:37:35,759 Speaker 2: the previous week in twenty twenty five. Spot dry van 608 00:37:35,840 --> 00:37:39,040 Speaker 2: load post volumes in the most recent week were fifty 609 00:37:39,160 --> 00:37:43,160 Speaker 2: three percent higher year over year. So very good news 610 00:37:43,280 --> 00:37:47,880 Speaker 2: and very optimistic viewpoints from those in the business and 611 00:37:47,960 --> 00:37:51,160 Speaker 2: should bode well for what we are seeing here in 612 00:37:51,239 --> 00:37:54,359 Speaker 2: the third quarter and going into the rest of the year. 613 00:37:55,800 --> 00:37:58,800 Speaker 2: Kind of looking at oil prices, oil prices, we're jumping 614 00:37:58,840 --> 00:38:02,960 Speaker 2: around again. It was interesting. I saw the numbers that 615 00:38:03,040 --> 00:38:08,040 Speaker 2: had fluctuated overnight, and I went to Phil Flynn's Energy Report, 616 00:38:08,080 --> 00:38:10,759 Speaker 2: because whenever I want to know what the heck is 617 00:38:10,800 --> 00:38:13,960 Speaker 2: actually going on Phil Flynn, I usually got to his 618 00:38:14,600 --> 00:38:17,759 Speaker 2: not usually I go to his Energy report every day. 619 00:38:17,800 --> 00:38:20,960 Speaker 2: And of course Phil Flynn as senior market analyst with 620 00:38:21,000 --> 00:38:24,280 Speaker 2: Price Future Group. He is a frequent contributor to Fox 621 00:38:24,400 --> 00:38:29,560 Speaker 2: Business News and a contributor to CNBC, and he is 622 00:38:29,600 --> 00:38:31,880 Speaker 2: often quoted in any of the stories having to do 623 00:38:31,920 --> 00:38:34,799 Speaker 2: with oil and gas prices by Reuters, so he is 624 00:38:34,880 --> 00:38:38,200 Speaker 2: an expert in the area. And what he basically talked 625 00:38:38,200 --> 00:38:41,879 Speaker 2: about today with International Energy Agency agreed to release four 626 00:38:41,920 --> 00:38:45,600 Speaker 2: hundred million barrels of oil from the member countries and 627 00:38:46,520 --> 00:38:48,840 Speaker 2: US said that they were going to release one hundred 628 00:38:48,840 --> 00:38:51,640 Speaker 2: and seventy two. He says, well, we're learning that oil 629 00:38:52,520 --> 00:38:56,480 Speaker 2: jumps on seeing flames in this conflict, and even though 630 00:38:56,800 --> 00:38:59,479 Speaker 2: the showing some of these reports of some of these 631 00:38:59,680 --> 00:39:04,120 Speaker 2: plays is on fire, that isn't necessarily creating damage to 632 00:39:04,160 --> 00:39:08,960 Speaker 2: the actual structures themselves and the actual production ability. So 633 00:39:09,000 --> 00:39:12,440 Speaker 2: he sorts through all this information and talks about how 634 00:39:12,840 --> 00:39:16,120 Speaker 2: looking forward, that these numbers are going to come down 635 00:39:16,160 --> 00:39:21,799 Speaker 2: because it's less and less likely that the Iran is 636 00:39:21,840 --> 00:39:24,960 Speaker 2: going to be able to sustain what they are doing. 637 00:39:25,360 --> 00:39:29,440 Speaker 2: West Texas Intermedia crew jump by seven dollars a barrel, again, 638 00:39:29,680 --> 00:39:34,840 Speaker 2: I think best based on pessimistic and kind of skittish information, 639 00:39:36,600 --> 00:39:39,240 Speaker 2: grew by seven dollars and forty six cents a barrel, 640 00:39:39,760 --> 00:39:42,320 Speaker 2: or an eight point five percent increased rent. Crewed ninety 641 00:39:42,400 --> 00:39:45,160 Speaker 2: nine dollars and thirty eight cents to seven seven dollars 642 00:39:45,200 --> 00:39:49,160 Speaker 2: and forty cents up and eight percent. But again, as 643 00:39:49,160 --> 00:39:52,160 Speaker 2: Phil Flynn pointed out his Energy report, he expects those 644 00:39:52,239 --> 00:39:53,240 Speaker 2: numbers to come down. 645 00:39:53,320 --> 00:39:54,520 Speaker 1: And what was interesting. 646 00:39:54,239 --> 00:39:59,239 Speaker 2: Yesterday also is that the head big headline, the Supreme 647 00:39:59,560 --> 00:40:06,919 Speaker 2: Leader speaks. Iran's new Supreme Leader, Mojat Motaba Kamine has 648 00:40:07,000 --> 00:40:11,839 Speaker 2: broken his silence days after succeeding his slain father's father 649 00:40:11,960 --> 00:40:12,480 Speaker 2: in the role. 650 00:40:13,680 --> 00:40:14,080 Speaker 1: Get this. 651 00:40:15,200 --> 00:40:20,239 Speaker 2: In a message read on state run television by a 652 00:40:20,360 --> 00:40:24,960 Speaker 2: news anchor, Komani said, so he didn't break his silence. 653 00:40:25,040 --> 00:40:27,719 Speaker 2: We don't know who wrote that, who came up with that, 654 00:40:28,120 --> 00:40:30,720 Speaker 2: and whether or not he's actually even alive. Well, folks, 655 00:40:30,800 --> 00:40:33,239 Speaker 2: we're up against clock here. Stay tuned for Fretti Rader. 656 00:40:33,320 --> 00:40:37,560 Speaker 2: It's amazing all the banner headlines. Supreme Leader speaks. 657 00:40:38,000 --> 00:40:38,320 Speaker 1: Well. 658 00:40:38,560 --> 00:40:41,680 Speaker 2: Actually, a note passed to a spoon feeder regrigistators in 659 00:40:41,760 --> 00:40:44,680 Speaker 2: Iran's media, I'm Kevin Gordon a stay tuned Forretti I Rator. 660 00:40:44,760 --> 00:40:46,640 Speaker 2: Top of the art. I'm Kevin Gordon. America has struck 661 00:40:46,719 --> 00:40:49,160 Speaker 2: a network seven hundred WLW