1 00:00:07,560 --> 00:00:11,119 S1: The Pentagon once said that Russia's invasion of Ukraine could 2 00:00:11,119 --> 00:00:14,840 S1: succeed in three days. So as the war rages on 3 00:00:14,840 --> 00:00:17,760 S1: more than four years later, what else have world leaders 4 00:00:17,760 --> 00:00:21,680 S1: got wrong? For one thing, what a nation's most important 5 00:00:21,680 --> 00:00:25,759 S1: source of power is. I'm Samantha Sellinger Morris, and you're 6 00:00:25,760 --> 00:00:28,639 S1: listening to Morning Edition from The Age and the Sydney 7 00:00:28,640 --> 00:00:33,879 S1: Morning Herald. Today, international and political editor Peter Hartcher on 8 00:00:33,880 --> 00:00:37,720 S1: the underestimated power that Ukraine holds and what it would 9 00:00:37,720 --> 00:00:48,479 S1: take for us to acquire it. It's February 26th. Peter. 10 00:00:48,479 --> 00:00:49,279 S1: Welcome back. 11 00:00:49,680 --> 00:00:51,280 S2: A pleasure to be here with you, Samantha. 12 00:00:51,520 --> 00:00:55,080 S1: Okay, so Tuesday marked four years since Russia launched its 13 00:00:55,080 --> 00:00:57,720 S1: full scale invasion of Ukraine. And you have just written 14 00:00:57,720 --> 00:01:00,720 S1: that these four years of non-stop Violence have a number 15 00:01:00,720 --> 00:01:03,640 S1: of important lessons to teach all of us really, about 16 00:01:03,640 --> 00:01:06,320 S1: the reality of the world that we're now living in. 17 00:01:06,360 --> 00:01:09,440 S1: No big deal. So harsher. Tell us. Tell us about 18 00:01:09,440 --> 00:01:10,160 S1: these lessons. 19 00:01:10,360 --> 00:01:15,680 S2: Absolutely. And I think everybody is astonished that with such 20 00:01:15,720 --> 00:01:19,600 S2: a mismatch of size, Ukraine has been able to survive 21 00:01:20,120 --> 00:01:22,840 S2: for four long years and is entering the fifth year 22 00:01:22,840 --> 00:01:25,840 S2: with no sign that it's coming to any sort of conclusion. 23 00:01:26,400 --> 00:01:28,720 S2: A country that was ranked 25th in the world in 24 00:01:28,720 --> 00:01:31,760 S2: terms of its military firepower, which was Ukraine, and today 25 00:01:31,800 --> 00:01:34,959 S2: has about 30 million people against the country that was 26 00:01:34,959 --> 00:01:37,880 S2: ranked number two in the world for military power, Russia, 27 00:01:38,560 --> 00:01:43,920 S2: which has about 140 million people. That mismatch is astonishing. 28 00:01:43,920 --> 00:01:48,080 S2: So that alone makes it a fascinating topic for study. 29 00:01:48,120 --> 00:01:51,640 S2: What can we learn? One is the importance of having. 30 00:01:51,960 --> 00:01:55,000 S2: This is part of the traditional hard power definition of 31 00:01:55,040 --> 00:02:00,600 S2: national strength. That is, the economic and technological Capability to 32 00:02:00,640 --> 00:02:06,280 S2: produce the high quality military and technology gear that you 33 00:02:06,280 --> 00:02:10,480 S2: need across the full spectrum of needs, and to produce 34 00:02:10,480 --> 00:02:15,480 S2: it rapidly and consistently. One strategist, Phillips p O'Brien, has 35 00:02:15,480 --> 00:02:18,040 S2: put it this way. Don't think so much about how 36 00:02:18,040 --> 00:02:21,320 S2: many tanks you have, but think about the system that 37 00:02:21,320 --> 00:02:25,400 S2: produced those tanks. Do you have a system that can 38 00:02:25,560 --> 00:02:30,520 S2: make produce quality tanks adapt in a great hurry? And 39 00:02:30,520 --> 00:02:33,239 S2: tanks are just a symbol, right? I mean, it's drones 40 00:02:33,240 --> 00:02:37,360 S2: and all other munitions. Missiles have to be encompassed by 41 00:02:37,360 --> 00:02:39,679 S2: this as well. But the second one is the critical 42 00:02:39,680 --> 00:02:43,880 S2: importance of allies, because neither Russia nor Ukraine could have 43 00:02:43,880 --> 00:02:49,800 S2: survived this long by itself or by themselves. Ukraine obviously 44 00:02:49,800 --> 00:02:55,840 S2: has had the essential support from Europeans and sometimes the US. 45 00:02:56,040 --> 00:02:58,960 S2: Russia has had the vital support of China, without which, 46 00:02:59,000 --> 00:03:02,840 S2: without its fiscal support and its tech support, Russia would 47 00:03:02,880 --> 00:03:06,560 S2: have collapsed. A third one is the importance of endurance. 48 00:03:06,600 --> 00:03:12,520 S2: Wars aren't short wars now. Last years and the Ukraine-russia 49 00:03:12,520 --> 00:03:14,680 S2: one is a good example where the Pentagon said that 50 00:03:15,160 --> 00:03:19,440 S2: Ukraine could collapse in three days and Putin would be 51 00:03:19,560 --> 00:03:24,400 S2: in Kyiv. Well, no. So you have to be a country, 52 00:03:24,440 --> 00:03:28,720 S2: has to be prepared to supply itself, regenerate its strength 53 00:03:28,720 --> 00:03:32,360 S2: for years and years, especially a small country up against 54 00:03:32,360 --> 00:03:35,600 S2: a formidable, larger ally. And I've saved the most important 55 00:03:35,600 --> 00:03:38,200 S2: to last. The most important lesson from Ukraine, I think, 56 00:03:38,760 --> 00:03:45,440 S2: is the essential, critical, central value of willpower the sheer 57 00:03:45,480 --> 00:03:49,160 S2: determination of a country, of a people, of a people. 58 00:03:49,200 --> 00:03:51,760 S2: Because that's what a country is. It's its people to 59 00:03:51,800 --> 00:03:55,000 S2: stand and survive in the face of overwhelming odds. 60 00:03:55,480 --> 00:03:58,070 S1: Okay, I really want to ask you about that last one. 61 00:03:58,070 --> 00:04:00,190 S1: You say it's the most important, which is so interesting 62 00:04:00,190 --> 00:04:03,710 S1: because I would have thought that willpower, that the idea 63 00:04:03,710 --> 00:04:06,910 S1: that that is sort of crucial to a nation's survival, 64 00:04:07,350 --> 00:04:11,150 S1: doesn't that completely upend conventional understanding of a nation's most 65 00:04:11,150 --> 00:04:12,430 S1: important source of power? 66 00:04:12,790 --> 00:04:16,150 S2: It does. And that is exactly why the Pentagon got 67 00:04:16,150 --> 00:04:20,350 S2: Ukraine so wrong, because they just looked at a conventional analysis, 68 00:04:21,110 --> 00:04:24,750 S2: number of missiles and fighter jets on the one team 69 00:04:24,750 --> 00:04:27,510 S2: and the equivalent on the other team, and see how 70 00:04:27,510 --> 00:04:30,790 S2: they match. Well, it turns out that in this case 71 00:04:30,830 --> 00:04:34,349 S2: turned out to be almost irrelevant. Not entirely, but almost irrelevant. 72 00:04:34,390 --> 00:04:36,790 S1: So tell us, how is that actually manifested, that the 73 00:04:36,790 --> 00:04:41,070 S1: willpower is what's enabled Ukraine to defy the Kremlin for 74 00:04:41,070 --> 00:04:43,550 S1: so long against really all expectations? 75 00:04:43,589 --> 00:04:47,310 S2: Well, a couple of examples. When the invasion began, hundreds 76 00:04:47,310 --> 00:04:52,029 S2: of thousands of Ukrainians rushed to volunteer. Hundreds of thousands. Now, 77 00:04:52,070 --> 00:04:55,789 S2: of course, eventually they pretty quickly had to turn to conscription. 78 00:04:56,750 --> 00:04:59,070 S2: The Russians too. Of course, the Russians have been signing 79 00:04:59,070 --> 00:05:03,190 S2: up prisoners and mercenaries and North Koreans and anybody that 80 00:05:03,190 --> 00:05:06,550 S2: can get their hands on simply to field enough troops. 81 00:05:07,190 --> 00:05:11,670 S2: But the contrast with the Russians is stark. Nobody in 82 00:05:11,670 --> 00:05:14,510 S2: Russia wants to fight. And one manifestation of that is 83 00:05:14,510 --> 00:05:18,310 S2: that the Russians commonly use something called blocking troops. Blocking 84 00:05:18,350 --> 00:05:21,510 S2: troops are the Russian soldiers who stand behind the front 85 00:05:21,550 --> 00:05:25,589 S2: lines with their guns, ready to shoot any Russian soldiers 86 00:05:25,589 --> 00:05:26,710 S2: who try to retreat. 87 00:05:27,029 --> 00:05:27,910 S1: It's brutal. 88 00:05:27,950 --> 00:05:32,029 S2: Right? So they're desperately, you know, trying to prevent their 89 00:05:32,029 --> 00:05:35,310 S2: own soldiers from running away. Of course, the Ukrainians have 90 00:05:35,310 --> 00:05:38,030 S2: some problems with people who don't want to be, don't 91 00:05:38,029 --> 00:05:39,590 S2: want to go to the war and all of that. 92 00:05:39,589 --> 00:05:42,669 S2: Any population would. But in the Russian case, it's structural, 93 00:05:42,670 --> 00:05:47,070 S2: it's endemic. And according to Zelensky, the Russians are signing 94 00:05:47,070 --> 00:05:54,150 S2: up about 40,000 new fighters a month, of whom 35,000 95 00:05:54,630 --> 00:06:00,430 S2: are becoming either casualties, either injured or killed. So they're 96 00:06:00,430 --> 00:06:03,390 S2: just churning through these people, and nobody wants to be 97 00:06:03,390 --> 00:06:07,030 S2: the next into the mincemeat machine. The Ukrainians, the will 98 00:06:07,070 --> 00:06:10,150 S2: to fight is much greater. Partly, you could attribute that 99 00:06:10,150 --> 00:06:13,350 S2: to the fact that Ukraine's survival is under threat. Russia's isn't. 100 00:06:13,910 --> 00:06:16,630 S2: And that gives a more desperate edge to the Ukrainian defenders. 101 00:06:16,950 --> 00:06:22,310 S2: But it's really this national, overwhelming whole of nation commitment 102 00:06:22,310 --> 00:06:26,390 S2: to this cause, starting from the leader. You'll remember Zelensky. 103 00:06:26,670 --> 00:06:28,390 S2: I don't need a ride, I need ammo. 104 00:06:32,029 --> 00:06:32,790 S3: And a taxi. 105 00:06:33,670 --> 00:06:37,230 S2: All the way down to, you know, the people who 106 00:06:37,230 --> 00:06:39,830 S2: can't fight but support the war effort in a thousand 107 00:06:39,830 --> 00:06:40,710 S2: different ways. 108 00:06:41,150 --> 00:06:44,309 S1: Okay, so let's talk about this idea that Ukraine has 109 00:06:44,310 --> 00:06:48,070 S1: this whole of nation support for the defense of its country. 110 00:06:48,430 --> 00:06:50,550 S1: I guess, broadly speaking, how does that apply to our 111 00:06:50,550 --> 00:06:53,390 S1: security here in Australia? Like what do we have to 112 00:06:53,390 --> 00:06:54,350 S1: learn from that? 113 00:06:55,510 --> 00:06:59,830 S2: What we have to learn is what all complacent Western 114 00:06:59,830 --> 00:07:03,750 S2: democracies are beginning to appreciate, and that is that we 115 00:07:03,750 --> 00:07:08,110 S2: need to change. We are completely unprepared. The realization started 116 00:07:08,110 --> 00:07:12,030 S2: earlier in Europe. Half a dozen European countries are now 117 00:07:12,750 --> 00:07:17,350 S2: resuming some form of military service, not conscription, but some 118 00:07:17,350 --> 00:07:22,670 S2: element of requirement on younger people across Europe to participate 119 00:07:22,670 --> 00:07:25,270 S2: in the defence of their countries. Just today in Canada, 120 00:07:25,310 --> 00:07:28,550 S2: The Globe and Mail, which is one of the leading papers, 121 00:07:28,590 --> 00:07:31,950 S2: has a piece saying Canada might have to fight an 122 00:07:31,950 --> 00:07:34,989 S2: all out war our young Canadians prepared. And of course, 123 00:07:34,990 --> 00:07:38,710 S2: the answer is no. But it's the same across all 124 00:07:38,910 --> 00:07:43,070 S2: all the Western democracies that have sheltered under American protection 125 00:07:43,590 --> 00:07:47,190 S2: and alliances since World War Two are now realizing they're 126 00:07:47,230 --> 00:07:47,870 S2: on their own. 127 00:07:48,350 --> 00:07:50,270 S1: So I guess, tell us, what is the state, then, 128 00:07:50,310 --> 00:07:53,430 S1: of our people, our collective whole, our psyche, our mental 129 00:07:53,510 --> 00:07:56,790 S1: preparedness or thinking about how we would endure against a 130 00:07:56,790 --> 00:07:59,710 S1: larger predator? Because essentially that's what you're saying Ukraine has, 131 00:07:59,750 --> 00:08:02,150 S1: you know, they may be tiny. They're against a nation 132 00:08:02,150 --> 00:08:04,910 S1: that has nuclear weapons. How are we going here, Peter? 133 00:08:05,830 --> 00:08:10,750 S2: Not so well, uh, two recent polling illustrations. There was 134 00:08:10,750 --> 00:08:16,390 S2: a poll 2024 by the the IPA, the Institute for 135 00:08:16,390 --> 00:08:21,630 S2: Public Affairs, which found that about half of Australians would 136 00:08:21,630 --> 00:08:24,550 S2: be prepared to fight in the event of a war, 137 00:08:24,870 --> 00:08:28,310 S2: an attack on their country, and 30% would leave the country. 138 00:08:28,910 --> 00:08:31,950 S2: Last year, the Lowy Institute asked a very similar question 139 00:08:31,990 --> 00:08:35,150 S2: and had very similar answer. I think 52% of Australians 140 00:08:35,710 --> 00:08:37,750 S2: said they would be prepared to fight if they were 141 00:08:37,750 --> 00:08:40,710 S2: physically capable of doing so, and about 25% said they 142 00:08:40,710 --> 00:08:44,189 S2: wouldn't and the rest were in the don't know category. 143 00:08:44,190 --> 00:08:46,910 S2: I suppose the threat seems to abstract from our daily lives. 144 00:08:46,910 --> 00:08:50,069 S2: It's difficult to imagine. But this brings us to the 145 00:08:50,070 --> 00:08:54,150 S2: critical importance of leadership of a country's leadership preparing its 146 00:08:54,150 --> 00:08:59,309 S2: people for potential crisis. It needn't be a full scale invasion. 147 00:08:59,350 --> 00:09:02,870 S2: The prospect of a full scale invasion of Australia, for example, 148 00:09:03,350 --> 00:09:06,510 S2: is close to zero. But we can certainly have our 149 00:09:06,510 --> 00:09:13,470 S2: national survival threatened. And if our rivals succeed are destroyed, 150 00:09:13,510 --> 00:09:17,550 S2: we can. We can lose our national sovereignty and self-determination 151 00:09:18,230 --> 00:09:23,430 S2: quite easily through, for example, one that's Australian war planners 152 00:09:23,429 --> 00:09:26,470 S2: have been gaming for in recent years, and that is 153 00:09:27,030 --> 00:09:30,030 S2: a naval blockade of Australia, so that we can't export 154 00:09:30,030 --> 00:09:33,510 S2: or import anything other than what the rival in this 155 00:09:33,550 --> 00:09:37,670 S2: illustrative case, obviously, is China, which has already tried to 156 00:09:37,710 --> 00:09:41,150 S2: use trade coercion and political coercion. Why not step it 157 00:09:41,150 --> 00:09:45,309 S2: up a notch? They've been practicing a naval blockade against 158 00:09:45,309 --> 00:09:50,830 S2: Taiwan in recent months. Australia is not, uh, there's no 159 00:09:50,950 --> 00:09:55,940 S2: absolutely no reason why we would be exempt. So threats 160 00:09:55,980 --> 00:09:59,140 S2: can be real, yet not obvious. And that means the leader, 161 00:09:59,860 --> 00:10:03,260 S2: the leadership, the political class has a duty to prepare 162 00:10:03,260 --> 00:10:08,380 S2: its citizens for a crisis and any plausible crisis. And 163 00:10:08,540 --> 00:10:12,940 S2: we haven't even addressed the basics of national resilience. The 164 00:10:12,940 --> 00:10:15,660 S2: fact that the country still only has about a month 165 00:10:16,140 --> 00:10:21,660 S2: stockpile of fuel to keep cars running, to keep jets flying, 166 00:10:21,820 --> 00:10:26,059 S2: to keep ships floating, moving. Uh, this is a long 167 00:10:26,100 --> 00:10:29,980 S2: standing problem that Australia has known about and yet has 168 00:10:29,980 --> 00:10:33,700 S2: failed to address. Pharmaceuticals. We'd run out of pharmaceuticals within 169 00:10:33,700 --> 00:10:36,540 S2: 6 to 12 months. So anything you depend on to 170 00:10:36,580 --> 00:10:40,420 S2: support your health and life we would lose access to. 171 00:10:40,460 --> 00:10:46,220 S2: So there's a whole raft of national resilience tasks that 172 00:10:46,220 --> 00:10:49,540 S2: remain untouched, not because the government hasn't been told and 173 00:10:49,540 --> 00:10:52,660 S2: not because the government doesn't know it's the Albanese government's 174 00:10:52,660 --> 00:10:56,620 S2: own defence. Strategic review, just a couple of years ago 175 00:10:56,740 --> 00:11:01,620 S2: found that Australia needed, quote, a whole of nation approach 176 00:11:01,940 --> 00:11:08,660 S2: to national survival, that whole of nation attitude and preparation 177 00:11:08,660 --> 00:11:12,700 S2: that the government's defence strategic review proposed remains in the 178 00:11:12,700 --> 00:11:15,340 S2: Defence Strategic Review and has gone no further. 179 00:11:15,460 --> 00:11:17,420 S1: Well, that's right. And as you pointed out in your piece, 180 00:11:17,420 --> 00:11:19,460 S1: you said, you know, that's where it remains. We're not 181 00:11:19,460 --> 00:11:23,220 S1: having these hard conversations. So why aren't we having these 182 00:11:23,220 --> 00:11:26,660 S1: hard conversations like you said? The government pointed this out. 183 00:11:26,660 --> 00:11:28,500 S1: I think it's three years ago now in that defence 184 00:11:28,500 --> 00:11:31,900 S1: strategic review set it out very clearly. Why aren't we 185 00:11:31,940 --> 00:11:33,300 S1: having these conversations, Peter? 186 00:11:34,820 --> 00:11:39,660 S2: Well, there's the $64 billion question. The first I would 187 00:11:40,020 --> 00:11:43,820 S2: say is that in general, there's a reluctance in democratic 188 00:11:43,820 --> 00:11:49,179 S2: countries for governments to disturb the population with unpleasant or 189 00:11:49,179 --> 00:11:54,540 S2: difficult thoughts. They much prefer to governments reassure. Oppositions are 190 00:11:54,580 --> 00:11:58,339 S2: happy to sow discontent and alarm, but governments want to reassure. 191 00:11:59,300 --> 00:12:02,739 S2: The second thing is the Liberal Party, in recent years 192 00:12:02,780 --> 00:12:08,340 S2: under Scott Morrison and Peter Dutton, did try to ring 193 00:12:08,340 --> 00:12:11,380 S2: the alarm. Now they might have overdone it a touch. 194 00:12:11,700 --> 00:12:13,740 S2: There might have been a touch of hysteria about it, 195 00:12:14,340 --> 00:12:16,540 S2: because they thought it would serve their purposes against the 196 00:12:16,540 --> 00:12:20,660 S2: Labor Party, but the lesson that they took from it, 197 00:12:20,660 --> 00:12:23,700 S2: and the reason they've now fallen, not completely silent, but 198 00:12:23,900 --> 00:12:27,660 S2: largely quiet on this, is that it didn't work for them. 199 00:12:27,700 --> 00:12:32,179 S2: It backfired electorally. There are five seats in the Australian 200 00:12:32,179 --> 00:12:36,860 S2: federal parliament where the Chinese Australian population is 20% or more, 201 00:12:37,260 --> 00:12:39,980 S2: and the Liberal Party used to have most of them. 202 00:12:39,980 --> 00:12:42,660 S2: It lost all of them over the last two elections. 203 00:12:43,220 --> 00:12:48,340 S2: And the reason seems to be alarm at the Liberal 204 00:12:48,500 --> 00:12:54,380 S2: Party's loud banging of the the symbol and the implied division, 205 00:12:54,420 --> 00:12:57,420 S2: the wedge that drove between Australia, Australia and China and 206 00:12:57,420 --> 00:13:01,179 S2: putting Australian Chinese in an uncomfortable position. So the electoral 207 00:13:01,179 --> 00:13:03,900 S2: lesson for the liberals was, whoa, we we can't do 208 00:13:03,900 --> 00:13:07,939 S2: that anymore. And labor has simply learned from that that 209 00:13:07,940 --> 00:13:12,179 S2: it should do the same and simply reassure the Chinese-australian population. 210 00:13:12,980 --> 00:13:18,579 S2: Byproduct of that is it doesn't upset Beijing. XI Jinping remains, 211 00:13:19,059 --> 00:13:23,540 S2: shall we say, in the more passive phase in relations 212 00:13:23,540 --> 00:13:28,540 S2: with Australia. The federal government, Albanese calls it stabilisation. Well, 213 00:13:28,820 --> 00:13:31,300 S2: you can only be so stable sitting on the top 214 00:13:31,300 --> 00:13:35,580 S2: of a volcano, because one day that volcano will erupt. 215 00:13:35,580 --> 00:13:37,700 S2: But it's not this day, and Albanese is happy to 216 00:13:37,740 --> 00:13:38,300 S2: take that. 217 00:13:40,220 --> 00:13:41,140 S1: After the break. 218 00:13:41,460 --> 00:13:44,100 S2: You've got all that going on, and yet at the 219 00:13:44,100 --> 00:13:48,579 S2: top they prefer not to worry anybody. They don't want 220 00:13:48,580 --> 00:13:51,740 S2: to create any any anxiety. They certainly don't want to 221 00:13:52,300 --> 00:13:55,420 S2: lose those vital chinese-australian seats. 222 00:14:02,500 --> 00:14:03,980 S1: I wanted to ask you, you know, what would it 223 00:14:03,980 --> 00:14:07,300 S1: take for our Prime minister, Anthony Albanese, to, you know, 224 00:14:07,340 --> 00:14:10,579 S1: start having these conversations to signal to our nation it's 225 00:14:10,580 --> 00:14:12,260 S1: going to be to our detriment. We don't know when, 226 00:14:12,260 --> 00:14:13,780 S1: but it's going to be to our detriment. If we 227 00:14:13,820 --> 00:14:16,660 S1: don't start talking about the fact that we may not 228 00:14:16,660 --> 00:14:19,980 S1: always be enjoying this peace and security that we've had for, 229 00:14:20,020 --> 00:14:21,940 S1: you know, since the end of the Cold War. Yeah, 230 00:14:22,420 --> 00:14:26,380 S1: because we spoke before recording Peter and you said that, 231 00:14:26,420 --> 00:14:31,140 S1: you know, Anthony Albanese has been, if anything, defending China's, 232 00:14:31,180 --> 00:14:34,380 S1: you know, recent sort of naval actions off our coast. 233 00:14:34,420 --> 00:14:36,140 S1: So tell tell us a bit about that as opposed 234 00:14:36,140 --> 00:14:38,980 S1: to sort of taking a hard line. He's really not 235 00:14:38,980 --> 00:14:40,300 S1: been taking a hard line. Right. 236 00:14:40,340 --> 00:14:44,020 S2: Well that's that's right. So that Chinese naval task force 237 00:14:44,020 --> 00:14:48,940 S2: that circumnavigated Australia and conducted live fire exercises off of Sydney. 238 00:14:49,620 --> 00:14:51,580 S2: That was the first time China had ever done such 239 00:14:51,620 --> 00:14:55,780 S2: a thing. Albanese did say that Australia would have preferred 240 00:14:55,780 --> 00:15:00,820 S2: some notice of that. But rather than criticise it for 241 00:15:00,820 --> 00:15:03,780 S2: what it obviously was, which was an attempt to intimidate 242 00:15:03,820 --> 00:15:07,980 S2: Australia and an attempt to lay claim to demonstrate that 243 00:15:07,980 --> 00:15:12,140 S2: it has the military reach and the political intent of 244 00:15:12,140 --> 00:15:15,860 S2: dominating the entire region, which has been in its leader's 245 00:15:15,860 --> 00:15:19,020 S2: speeches for years, by the way. But this was a very, 246 00:15:19,300 --> 00:15:23,300 S2: very real and concrete manifestation of that rhetoric. Rather than 247 00:15:23,340 --> 00:15:28,500 S2: criticise it, Anthony Albanese made excuses for it and said, oh, 248 00:15:28,540 --> 00:15:33,420 S2: we conduct similar exercises in the South China Sea all 249 00:15:33,420 --> 00:15:33,980 S2: the time. 250 00:15:34,500 --> 00:15:37,700 S4: But given Australia has a presence from time to time 251 00:15:37,700 --> 00:15:41,500 S4: in the South China Sea, its location is hinted at 252 00:15:41,500 --> 00:15:45,300 S4: there by the title of the sea that we engage 253 00:15:45,300 --> 00:15:50,250 S4: in Activities that are lawful. This activity took place outside 254 00:15:50,250 --> 00:15:56,330 S4: of our our exclusive economic zone. Uh, notification did occur 255 00:15:56,810 --> 00:15:59,530 S4: of this event. Uh, what we have done is make 256 00:15:59,530 --> 00:16:03,250 S4: representations saying that we think best practice would be to 257 00:16:03,290 --> 00:16:04,450 S4: give more notice. 258 00:16:04,490 --> 00:16:09,050 S2: And so, you know, in other words, drawing an equivalence. 259 00:16:09,090 --> 00:16:11,730 S2: It's an equivalence that doesn't exist because the South China 260 00:16:11,770 --> 00:16:16,610 S2: Sea is the world's most important strategic artery, where multiple 261 00:16:16,610 --> 00:16:20,290 S2: countries have been conducting freedom of navigation operations for decades. 262 00:16:20,930 --> 00:16:24,050 S2: And that freedom of navigation is under active threat because 263 00:16:24,050 --> 00:16:28,530 S2: of the Chinese government's territorial claims and ambitions, and realizing 264 00:16:28,530 --> 00:16:31,410 S2: those by reclaiming islands, building military bases on them and 265 00:16:31,410 --> 00:16:35,450 S2: all the rest. There is no there is no threat to, 266 00:16:36,370 --> 00:16:40,410 S2: I don't know, Australia's Antarctic roots. Um, there is no 267 00:16:40,810 --> 00:16:46,130 S2: global shipping vital lifeline that passes, you know, between Adelaide 268 00:16:46,130 --> 00:16:50,530 S2: and Buenos Aires there is no such stake and there 269 00:16:50,570 --> 00:16:53,090 S2: is no such threat. So it's not equivalent in any way, 270 00:16:53,090 --> 00:16:56,050 S2: shape or form. And yet the Prime Minister was going 271 00:16:56,050 --> 00:16:58,410 S2: to some lengths to explain that we should think of 272 00:16:58,410 --> 00:16:59,290 S2: it as such. 273 00:16:59,330 --> 00:17:01,010 S1: So would you go so far as to say that 274 00:17:01,010 --> 00:17:04,730 S1: our Prime Minister has been weak? Uh, sort of globally, 275 00:17:04,770 --> 00:17:06,689 S1: I guess, in comparison with other countries in the way 276 00:17:06,690 --> 00:17:09,770 S1: they're perhaps building up or signalling to their nations that 277 00:17:09,770 --> 00:17:11,570 S1: we are in a new era now and we need 278 00:17:11,570 --> 00:17:14,690 S1: to prepare ourselves. You know, I'm thinking of the announcement 279 00:17:14,690 --> 00:17:18,050 S1: that Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney just made on February 16th, 280 00:17:18,410 --> 00:17:22,250 S1: announcing that Canada was launching its first ever industrial defense strategy, 281 00:17:22,290 --> 00:17:26,810 S1: saying Canada is investing $180 billion in defence procurement, $290 282 00:17:26,810 --> 00:17:31,170 S1: billion in defence and security related infrastructure. And, you know, 283 00:17:31,210 --> 00:17:34,490 S1: he was talking about how defending Canada means more than 284 00:17:34,490 --> 00:17:36,850 S1: just increasing the size of our military. It's the strength 285 00:17:36,850 --> 00:17:39,010 S1: of the industries and the resiliency of the economy. I 286 00:17:39,010 --> 00:17:43,649 S1: guess something perhaps approaching that whole of nation attitude you 287 00:17:43,690 --> 00:17:46,290 S1: were talking about. And I'm just wondering, you know, what 288 00:17:46,330 --> 00:17:48,970 S1: signal that might have sent Canadians as opposed to, say, 289 00:17:49,090 --> 00:17:51,850 S1: the signal that our Prime Minister is sending to us? 290 00:17:51,890 --> 00:17:57,530 S2: Yeah. Well, that's not a bad point, because in Australia, 291 00:17:57,530 --> 00:18:00,410 S2: the federal government is doing a similar thing with defence 292 00:18:00,410 --> 00:18:05,650 S2: industrial capability, building it up, increasing the number of products 293 00:18:05,650 --> 00:18:11,650 S2: that Australia can manufacture, autonomous underwater vehicles, aerial vehicles and 294 00:18:11,650 --> 00:18:17,010 S2: land vehicles with some. Long range missile production will start 295 00:18:17,010 --> 00:18:20,129 S2: in Australia for the first time this year. And of course, 296 00:18:20,170 --> 00:18:23,969 S2: the signature is Aukus. So if you've got all of 297 00:18:23,970 --> 00:18:28,530 S2: those expenses going on tens of billions, in the case 298 00:18:28,530 --> 00:18:32,810 S2: of Aukus over 50 years, hundreds of billions. Doesn't that 299 00:18:32,810 --> 00:18:36,770 S2: tell you that the government is actually concerned? And the 300 00:18:36,770 --> 00:18:39,609 S2: official position is that four years ago, we had federal 301 00:18:39,609 --> 00:18:42,850 S2: governments telling us that our window of warning of imminent 302 00:18:43,010 --> 00:18:46,130 S2: crisis was ten years. Well, that was four years ago. 303 00:18:46,970 --> 00:18:50,770 S1: So in crisis, you're referring there to China possibly attacking Taiwan? 304 00:18:50,810 --> 00:18:57,010 S2: Yes. Yes. An unspecified, but, um, a military security crisis 305 00:18:57,010 --> 00:19:00,770 S2: directly affecting Australia. So it could encompass Taiwan, but it 306 00:19:00,770 --> 00:19:05,050 S2: could encompass many others. So you've got all that going on, 307 00:19:05,050 --> 00:19:09,770 S2: and yet at the top, they prefer not to worry anybody. 308 00:19:09,770 --> 00:19:12,770 S2: They don't want to create any, any anxiety. They certainly 309 00:19:12,770 --> 00:19:17,890 S2: don't want to lose those vital chinese-australian seats that they 310 00:19:18,130 --> 00:19:23,729 S2: love to privately will gloat about publicly. They dismiss it 311 00:19:23,730 --> 00:19:27,369 S2: as a particular target. But that's that's a reality. The 312 00:19:27,369 --> 00:19:32,929 S2: Canadian situation. Mark Carney can and probably must be more 313 00:19:32,930 --> 00:19:36,050 S2: outspoken about it, because Canada has been punched in the 314 00:19:36,050 --> 00:19:37,570 S2: face by the US. 315 00:19:37,609 --> 00:19:38,010 S1: Directly. 316 00:19:38,290 --> 00:19:41,490 S2: Right on its border. Trump has made a rhetorical claim 317 00:19:41,930 --> 00:19:45,530 S2: to own and occupy all of Canada? Yes. So, uh. 318 00:19:46,090 --> 00:19:47,410 S1: It's a different situation for sure. 319 00:19:47,450 --> 00:19:50,250 S2: So they've got they've got the crisis on their doorstep 320 00:19:50,609 --> 00:19:53,889 S2: looming over them and threatening them. We don't have anything 321 00:19:53,890 --> 00:19:56,810 S2: like that. And maybe that's what it will take an 322 00:19:56,810 --> 00:20:02,250 S2: external crisis to drive the change in rhetoric and change 323 00:20:02,250 --> 00:20:05,889 S2: in threat perception among the Australian people. Mind you, I 324 00:20:06,010 --> 00:20:10,370 S2: should give some recognition that the Australian public isn't totally 325 00:20:10,690 --> 00:20:16,169 S2: ignorant and distracted. The Lowy Institute polls, which is an 326 00:20:16,210 --> 00:20:18,449 S2: annual poll about Australians attitudes to the rest of the 327 00:20:18,450 --> 00:20:22,129 S2: world for several years now, have found around 70% of 328 00:20:22,130 --> 00:20:25,169 S2: Australians believe that China will be a military threat to 329 00:20:25,210 --> 00:20:28,890 S2: Australia within 20 years. I think is the question. So, 330 00:20:29,330 --> 00:20:33,490 S2: you know, they're not entirely complacent or absent minded. They 331 00:20:33,770 --> 00:20:35,929 S2: read the tea leaves. They can they can see the 332 00:20:35,930 --> 00:20:39,810 S2: building threat, but you won't catch the Prime Minister talking 333 00:20:39,810 --> 00:20:40,449 S2: about it. 334 00:20:41,050 --> 00:20:44,490 S1: Okay. We'll definitely watch that space sort of scenario. But Peter, 335 00:20:44,490 --> 00:20:46,570 S1: I guess just to wrap up, what would you say 336 00:20:46,570 --> 00:20:48,890 S1: to listeners who are listening to us and they're thinking, hey, 337 00:20:48,930 --> 00:20:51,770 S1: we're not under threat, and is China really going to 338 00:20:51,810 --> 00:20:54,889 S1: attack Taiwan? Which would then embroil us in sort of, uh, 339 00:20:54,890 --> 00:20:57,050 S1: you know, possibly a violent conflict. You know, they might 340 00:20:57,050 --> 00:21:00,930 S1: point to recent analysis showing that China's own economy would 341 00:21:00,930 --> 00:21:03,570 S1: tank if it were to attack Taiwan, because there'd be 342 00:21:03,570 --> 00:21:06,090 S1: this loss of, you know, the high end computer chips 343 00:21:06,090 --> 00:21:08,530 S1: that are made in Taiwan that, yes, all of us 344 00:21:08,530 --> 00:21:11,290 S1: rely on for our defense and our phones and everything else. 345 00:21:11,490 --> 00:21:14,250 S1: But actually, so much of China's own economy, of course, 346 00:21:14,290 --> 00:21:16,930 S1: relies on. So what if they think of all this 347 00:21:16,930 --> 00:21:19,770 S1: and they go, is this conversation alarmist? 348 00:21:21,330 --> 00:21:24,810 S2: Uh, well, I would simply point them to a couple 349 00:21:24,850 --> 00:21:27,970 S2: of facts. One of the lessons that we can draw 350 00:21:27,970 --> 00:21:31,730 S2: from Ukraine is that not to listen to tactical denials 351 00:21:31,730 --> 00:21:35,690 S2: by a potential rival, but look at their grand strategic 352 00:21:35,690 --> 00:21:39,169 S2: narrative because Russia said, oh, no, Putin said, no, of 353 00:21:39,170 --> 00:21:41,399 S2: course we're not going to invade Ukraine right until the 354 00:21:41,400 --> 00:21:45,840 S2: day before it did. And because most countries don't want war, 355 00:21:45,880 --> 00:21:50,040 S2: most countries don't want to be invaded. People are beguiled 356 00:21:50,040 --> 00:21:52,520 S2: by that and listen to that. He's not going to attack. 357 00:21:52,520 --> 00:21:56,880 S2: And the Ukrainians didn't really believe that Putin was about 358 00:21:56,880 --> 00:21:59,080 S2: to invade. And the Americans were telling them for weeks, 359 00:21:59,280 --> 00:22:01,560 S2: we think they're coming for you. We think it's really serious. 360 00:22:01,560 --> 00:22:05,040 S2: And the Ukrainians were saying, no, we don't believe that. 361 00:22:05,040 --> 00:22:07,040 S2: So don't believe the denials. But that's the thing you 362 00:22:07,040 --> 00:22:12,159 S2: can believe is the broad strategic narrative that these dictators, 363 00:22:12,160 --> 00:22:16,760 S2: these predator nations tell about national greatness and their return 364 00:22:16,960 --> 00:22:20,200 S2: to their former glory and their imperial glory and all 365 00:22:20,240 --> 00:22:23,920 S2: of that, because that tells you the real story. The 366 00:22:23,920 --> 00:22:26,880 S2: denials are just a tactical part of waging warfare on 367 00:22:26,880 --> 00:22:31,320 S2: your country. The grand strategic narrative of Russia is, as 368 00:22:31,320 --> 00:22:35,400 S2: we know from Putin, it's this nostalgic, great Slavic empire, 369 00:22:35,400 --> 00:22:39,600 S2: which is essentially a pitch to restore the Soviet Union 370 00:22:39,720 --> 00:22:44,639 S2: Imperial reach and rebuild a superpower. The same with China. 371 00:22:44,960 --> 00:22:50,119 S2: XI Jinping's his most famous catchphrases are to create the 372 00:22:50,119 --> 00:22:56,160 S2: China Dream to create the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation. 373 00:22:56,600 --> 00:22:59,679 S2: It's like Trump's Make America Great again. So they're the 374 00:22:59,680 --> 00:23:04,480 S2: grand strategic narratives. Countries have been warned. Ukraine didn't think 375 00:23:04,520 --> 00:23:07,200 S2: Russia was serious until the day it happened. I would 376 00:23:07,200 --> 00:23:11,000 S2: say to anybody who thinks we're being alarmist, two things. First, 377 00:23:11,280 --> 00:23:13,880 S2: read the news. Second, are you feeling lucky? 378 00:23:14,320 --> 00:23:17,960 S1: Are you feeling lucky? Yeah. Well, better to end there, Peter. 379 00:23:18,400 --> 00:23:19,560 S1: Thanks so much for your time. 380 00:23:19,600 --> 00:23:20,360 S2: Always a pleasure. 381 00:23:26,040 --> 00:23:29,720 S1: In other news, today, the nation's peak veterans organization is 382 00:23:29,720 --> 00:23:34,160 S1: calling for authorities to urgently resolve outstanding war crimes allegations 383 00:23:34,160 --> 00:23:38,399 S1: against Australian soldiers who served in Afghanistan. Arguing delays are 384 00:23:38,440 --> 00:23:42,920 S1: sapping morale and unfairly smearing those who have served in uniform. 385 00:23:43,640 --> 00:23:46,480 S1: Victorian public school parents fork out the most cash for 386 00:23:46,480 --> 00:23:49,680 S1: their schools in the country, and the second most per student. 387 00:23:49,880 --> 00:23:54,000 S1: Highlighting concerns parents are propping up a fall in government funding, 388 00:23:54,680 --> 00:23:57,760 S1: and the reserve Bank is under increasing pressure to consider 389 00:23:57,760 --> 00:24:00,560 S1: a rate rise before the next federal budget in May, 390 00:24:01,080 --> 00:24:04,239 S1: after new figures showed inflation growing through the start of 391 00:24:04,240 --> 00:24:07,720 S1: the year. For all these stories, go to our website 392 00:24:07,720 --> 00:24:15,080 S1: at the Commonwealth or Smh.com.au. Today's episode was produced by 393 00:24:15,119 --> 00:24:18,560 S1: Kai Wong. Our executive producer is Tammy Mills, and our 394 00:24:18,560 --> 00:24:22,920 S1: podcasts are overseen by Lisa Muxworthy and Tom McKendrick. If 395 00:24:22,960 --> 00:24:25,720 S1: you like our show, follow the Morning Edition and leave 396 00:24:25,720 --> 00:24:29,640 S1: a review for us on Apple or Spotify. Thanks for listening.